you're in the business of helping people. we're in the business of helping you. business loans for eligible card members up to fifty thousand dollars, decided in as little as 60 seconds. the powerful backing of american express. don't do business without it. snow . welcome to "up." i'm david gura. we are three, count them, three days a way from midterm elections and for the very first time president trump is acknowledging the possibility his party may not come out on top. >> the democrats, and it could happen, could happen -- i'll just figure it out. >> the president is crisscrossing the country in a last-ditch effort to boost turnout calling the democrats the party of crime.

>> a blue wave would equal a crime wave. very simple. >> this is saturday november 3rd and president obama is also on the campaign trail. he had this message for voters. beware of the bamboozle. >> don't be charlie brown. don't fall for the okey-doke. >> i'm going to kick that football clear to the moon! ah! >> well, let's take stock of where we are this morning. voters heading to polls in just three days to cast ballots in a midterm election, and president trump has made a referendum on the first two years of his presidency. this is what's up for grabs. the keys to 36 governors' mansions across the country. 35 seats in the u.s. senate and 435 seats in the house of representatives. records are being set already. over 31.5 million votes have been cast early or absentee. i should say that surpasses the

total number of votes cast early in 2014. president trump plans to hold seven more campaign rallies before tuesday. today he's in belgrade, montana. then heads to pensacola, florida, and the president seems more than happy to return to some of the themes that animated his 206 16 presidential campaig >> when mexico sends its people they're bringing drugs. they're bringing crime. they're rapists. >> he's trying out new rhetoric. "make america sacred again." >> caravan after caravan is forming unvetted, illegal aliens trying to flood into our country. overwhelming your schools, depleting i don't are resources, and endangering your community. among them criminals and gang members, convicted of crimes ranging from armed robbery to sexual assault. >> here is his closing argument

summarized by the "new york times." build tent cities for mig grathts and birthright citizenship. fear the caravan, send active duty troops to the border. refuse asylum. here every saturday and sunday morning from 8:00 to 10:00 a.m. "up" with me, clint watts, former fbi special agent and author of the book "messesing with the enemy." and a senior director for sirius xm and an msnbc political analyst. and a comedian and host of "stand up" and the director of strategic communications for hillary clinton. a few at the table who have been in this position before. days away from an election and i want to ask you both, what's going through your mind as we look ahead to tuesday? you've seen the rallies. they continue. president obama will be out again tomorrow. president trump i said three rallies coming up before tuesday. what do you think about these midterms at this point? >> i'm thinking 2016 taught us we can't rely on polling data

and ikpredictions to determine what will actually happen on election day and the fact election day is already happening in early voting states. the 35.5 million that already cast ballots is a great sign, because it's up from 2014 in terms of early voting. obviously, it's become more normalized and popular to do that, and the states have increased in terms of the amount of states you can early vote. that's a good sign. it shows the electorate is engaged. people are not like, well, i don't know if i'll go vote and not wof awaffles at in 2016 bec both candidates had low approval ratings. in this election be it's an district-by-direct, everybody knows what's at stake. nobody is, i'm staying home because i don't feel like going to vote. it's more of an existential moment for the country than in 2016. >> adrian, how's your blood pressure? >> i said before we went on, the music, election day music, makes

me really tense. look, i feel very, very cautiously optimistic. of course, in 2016, our early voting momentum was out the roof and then the fbi investigation reopened 12 days before the election. everything stalled. we're not seeing that this time around. especially for a mid-term election. you don't see this turnout traditionally. the fact 31 upon 5 people already voted is huge. i worked at a democratic congress' campaign committee in 2006. under rahm emanuel the last time democrats took back the house. we didn't see anything like this. in terms of just people so motivated to get out and vote. again, cautiously optimistic. anything can happen on election day, but i feel pretty darn good as i possibly can right now. >> clint, about that "new york times" summarizing the president's argument. seen it refined and boiled down the last few weeks. the last time we spoke we talked what the democratic response to that might be. have they figured it out?

what do you make of the pitch the president's making here on the campaign trail? >> the president's base mobilizes around one or two issues. one or two hash tags. in every election. i don't know if anyone's told him blue wave is snynonymous wih a wave of police showing up. it can also mean anti-crime wave. pitching the same thing and blow it out. interesting for democrats, it play s somewhat to their advantage they don't have a centralized message. the issues are different across the country that people care. health care in some places. immigration in another. that is working to their advantage. come 2020, will there be a problem? i see the progressive message oftentimes at odds with the establishment meg message. they have to work it out but it may work out fine poor them actually in 2018. >> pete, going with his gut.

not an analytical argument the president is making end of the campaign. >> the president -- ah, david, you suggested the president maybe within your question he sometimes makes annan lit-- analytics numbers. others look at polls and what's working. he knows what works to market. he's an expert marketer and he knows it's fear. it's racism and it's division, and that has worked for him as he said this week up until now. he doesn't need any proof, as he admitted for inny claims he makes because to a lot of his supporters he's a religious-like figure and they believe whatever he says. but i don't know. i'm not -- i don't really agree with the idea, #nothingmatters, thinking of hash tags because it does matter to a lot of people and there are a lot republicans -- after, the shooting last week and the terrorism of last week i think there are a lot of people, jewish conservative -- jewish trump supporter it's said, you know what? maybe not.

so i think you're starting to see around the edges, in terms of folks in the financial sdla i tai -- industry i talked to and others vulnerables based on terrorism attempts anden attacks, it's gotten too crazy. using poor children and sending the united states northern command to fight people who are unarmed, that is working for his base, but i think people on the edges -- i don't know. i'll let the experts -- >> hundreds of mile moo away fr the border. >> yes. i think people are turning away. his supporters, some of them. >> what should we make of the itinerary both president trump and president obama are following this weekend? look at him going to belgrade, montana. going to pensacola, florida. yes, there are racists across this great country but we are so focused on just a handful of them. >> i actually think his base needs to turn out and where he can turn out his base, he's going there.

some of these hard-core trump supporters who turned down the 2016 election because of trump not necessarily turn out on the midterms because he's not on the ball ballot. he's going to those places, where his base is strong and getting them to turn out. going where he has gravitas and pull. president obama same thing. going to places democrats have to turn out on election day to make a difference and to win. they know what they're doing when it comes to mapping out where they can make a sale. >> add from a standup comedian's perspective, we go and tape up where our fans are, it looks great. he's a great stand-up comedian. plays well in pensacola. >> goes to an audience who knows the people, cheering, wearing everything. knows exactly what audience, and that gets everybody fired up. it works. >> uh-huh. >> you started talking about 2020. i was going to hold my fire a little while. when you have immigration, what the particular ed is sresident .

after the election, cynicism is built into that. especially when as people brings up you're sending thousands of's troos now to the border. >> yeah. it's going to be the largest flag football tournament in the history of america down on the mexican border. soldiers down there for no reason during the holidays. we've been at war 17 years now. the military is worn out. imagine getting the call and you're a trump supporting member of the u.s. military. behind the scenes you go, i'm going for thanksgiving to the mexican border to thrplay xbox. this will have a triple effect. work it out later. i'm not sure that's going to play out. i'm worried about with all of this, and my job is always to worry about the down side, is what happens on wednesday? americans have somewhat forgot that for all of this getting upset and gamesmanship and competition it's, you're actually running for a job.

this is my fear with the sort of democrat side of things. what do they do if they win or lose on wednesday? we kind of know what the gop's going to do. they've pretty much told us. we're going to build a wall. we're going to stop the caravan. they laid it out. all tactical actions. what is it on the democrat side? i would like to know what they're going to push for, other than not trump. that's the -- the undercurrent of 2020 is, what is really the democratic party about? they'll have time to figure it out. it's not just going to be in a day, but i'm a little concerned about wednesday more than tuesday. >> go back and talk about that. a bit more about the border later in the should e as well. coming up, less than 72 hours to go before the polls open in the east, our nbc road warriors are on the ground across the united states. we go to florida next to georgia as well as the candidates finding themselves in a mad dash to the midterm. latest on two of those closely watched races coming up, next. - i love my grandma. - anncr: as you grow older, your brain naturally

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welcome back to "up." i'm david gura. focusing on two historic races in georgia stacey abrams could become the nation's first black female governor's in florida, andrew gill 'em poium, the firs governor. and the race between these two is a toss-up at this point. a new development this morning. andrew gillum decided to return totallahassee. there was a shooting there last night. the latest from lakeland, florida. we saw a bit of president obama speaking in atlanta. he was in miami before delivering those remarks in georgia. talk about where things stand with the governor's race in florida. >> reporter: well, with the governor's race you're seeing

andrew gillum going back to tallahassee in light of the shooting that happened last night. this is not the first time events interfered with the campaign schedule. remember, michael earlier last month put both governor rick scott and andrew gillum off the campaign trail, doing his day job, so to speak, and andrew gillum repeatedly points that he can work across party line. it's important when you consider the fact his opponent repeatedly says when gillum lashes out against trump it shows he can't work with republicans. something the governor of florida is going to have to do, when you consider recovery efforts and all the other things that florida needs the federal government for, but gillum says that shows he can work with rick scott when it means florida voters need something. the fact the shooting comes just days until the election is an issue central here in florida. remember the parkland shooting earlier in the year. those students fanned out across the country to try to get people

to vote. >> and clint watts is, with me here at the table. >> quick question. in every election in recent memory i can recall we always talk the hispanic vote as being the decisive vote. going back over the last 20 years. yet in this election i've heard very little about it, actually. even though immigration is a big debate. i wondered how that playedous in places like florida that you've been? >> reporter: yeah. florida is an interesting case. a lot of strategists are looking how puerto rican voters who may have come here after the hurricane are going to vote. generally speaking, an effort among both republicans and democrats to turn out those voters. the real thinking, play a role in 2018, but the puerto rican voters may play a larger role in 2020. a state like florida, large pockets of the cuban community and generally speaking all four candidates in the major races we're talking about, they are all trying to play for that hispanic vote.

i will say that andrew gillum has done a good job turning out more minority voters. something they need do come election day. democrats looking at this weekend. early voting ends today and in other places goes on if impacted by the hurricane. democrats looking for a big turnout this weekend to close the gap we're seeing now. >> thank you very much. thanks for the reporting and before we move on to georgia, adrian, a quick question. i saw something in the "miami herald" yesterday that said independent voters are the white whale of florida elections. cannot vote in closed primaries. and didn't participate in earlier polls and typically turn out lower in years when a president is not on the ballot. >> glad you mentioned that. one of the untold stories we don't always talk about in florida. first of all, florida, running for a state-wide office in florida is like running for three different states. jit the cuban community down south. central florida, which is your standard state and then you've

got the northern panhandle of florida, which is basically a southern state. it's complicated. independents could not vote in the primary because it was a closed primary. when you see president trump going down there and trying to use fear tactics that are divisive and compare that with president obama who's giving an aspirational message as democrats if you're and independent, you're still undecided, likely going with the more aspirational message in this race. >> go over to georgia. move north, if we could. an update on that race poor govepoor -- for governor. the race is still neck and neck. joining us now from it atlanta, msnbc's senior editor. walk us through the next few days, if you would. what's happening on georgia ahead of tuesday? >> reporter: hey, david. if there's any doubt this is one of the marquee con 2e69 tests o entire country, take a look at what's coming in the next couple

of days. oprah winfrey campaigning for stacey abrams. president obama also campaigning for stacey abrams and president trump is coming in tomorrow night, sunday night, to campaign with brian kemp. i was out there at president obama's rally last night. a very, very action-packed, exciting night for supporters of stacey abrams. at morehouse university, historically a black college here in atlanta. president obama very, very popular among black voters and stacey abrams really nields them to get over the top in a very, very close race, as you said. and president obama leaned into that. talked about the civil rights movement, the women's movement. how a vote in this race was to honor the people who came before to make voting possible for people who had previously been disenfranchised and a mel pretty well-received by the students and the many people in that gym. he's got a lot of great effort here in georgia to help get

those black voters out for stacey abrams. she, too, sounded very, very fired up and feels she's going to put it over the top here. as you know, david, this is a very, very conservative state, a red state. hasn't elected a democrat state-wide in quite some time and a third candidate is in this race. a libertarian who's running. here in georgia, one of the rules you need to get to 50% to actually have a straight-out win. if neither kemp or abrams gets to 50% they're going to a runoff. >> and going to ask you a question in a sec. one line from the "washington post." dan zach reporter for the "post" down in georgia said the cavalry has been called as if the fate of the nation depends on georgia. oprah thursday in marietta and decatur, barack obama friday at morehouse college you mentioned. president trump this sunday, farther south in macon. >> my question is related to the celebrities that showed up. in terms of what you see on the ground, someone like oprah in 2008 had a huge impact for barack obama visiting iowa and campaigned on his behalf.

curious if you're seeing the energy since president obama and oprah have been in georgia, an uptick on that energy on the ground in terms of the gotd efforts? >> reporter: tremendous energy on the ground on both sides. i would say oprah was a big coup for stacey abrams. it's not surprising president obama will go out and campaign for democrats. he's a political guy. the former president. the leading democrat in the united states. oprah, on the other hand is very, very careful about what she does politically. she does not get involved in a lot of campaigns. she really picks and chooses. the fact oprah winfrey decided to use her celebrity star power on behalf of stacey abrams to come here to georgia was a real sign that she's going to make hopefully a difference for stacey abrams. a big difference not only with black women, black voters in general, who may admire oprah, also the. suburban women who used to watch oprah's talk show, know her well. that's probably going to be the group of people who really decides this race. folks who live in the suburbs,

maybe not passionately political one way or the other, still trying to figure out ho to vote for. an endorsement for oprah winfrey could make the difference. >> thank you. joining us from georgia this morning. clint, you nodded as she talked about the role that oprah played? >> yeah. it's a, an audience that's crosscutting. she's hitting different demographics, different parts. we've been talking very heavily about women voters moving into this election. she can appeal to a very large audience down there. so it's, i think she's a differencemaker more than a standard politician. >> the national media covered it, too. also an amazing speaker and really inspirational, and you know, let's not forget, the same day oprah was in georgia, vice president mike pence there for brian kemp but what i had his jeb bush moment. his please clap moment. hey, i'm a pretty big deal, too, but oprah has a really great message, my opinion. some on the right reacted as it

being somehow radical. you have to vote for the legacy of your family member whose might not have had the right to vote. the story in georgia, we should be talking about this as much as we can. the purging of voters. it is straight up 2018 jim crow. there is no way to debate or discuss it, and that is what oprah was talking about and every american should be paying attention to this. if you have to cleat to win what they are doing now and have done forever in his country to prevent certain people from voting. in this case dispro potion knitly black people that is 2018 jim crow. how it should be discussed. >> not to mention, by the way, the republican nominee for governor is also the secretary of state and refused to recuse himself from any of this. >> that's that. same in kansas. >> and it's completely ridiculous. >> yeah. >> one more thing oprah doesn't get enough credit for. she is a self-made person. donald trump is not. >> yeah. >> tremendous adversity, and

saying he's self-made. obstacles. >> he's inspirational. you can identify with her. she started at nothing and went all the way to where she's at. look at donald trump. his dad gave him a lot of money. a very different story. >> gave away cars, joking, and refrigerators, she built a school for girls. she inspired an entire generation of women and men. i'll do whatever oprah tells me to do. text me, oprah. text me. i'll do it. >> she is right about the message resinating. my aunt and grandfather both marched in selma. voting for me is something i would never not do. my aunt had to hide from the ku klux klan and 17 years old because they were coming. there were rumors when folks went down for that third march, the klan was going to kill people. so having that in mind, it makes the decision to vote very easy. >> absolutely. up ahead, what trump doesn't want voters to talk about could decide the election. first, here's bill maher with his take on trump's caravan crisis. >> trump is like a racist paul

ra veer. you know? the migrants are coming! the mike grants are coming! he keeps calling it an invasion! yes, an invasion of strollers. yes. the great invaders of history. attila the hun, dora the explorer. i'm a musician about to embark on a concert tour. it's your job to get don to all his tour dates on time. it's good money. we need it. in a divided nation... in the deep south, there's gonna be problems. get your hands off him. now! you never win with violence, tony. his music broke barriers. where did you learn how to play like that? my mother. as soon as i could walk. you're unbelievable. and inspired an unexpected friendship. what do we do about the bones? we do dis.

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"look what she's accomplished... she authored the ban on assault weapons... pushed the desert protection act through congress, and steered billions of federal dollars to california projects such as subway construction and wildfire restoration." "she... played an important role in fighting off ...trump's efforts to kill the affordable care act." california news papers endorse dianne feinstein for us senate. california values senator dianne feinstein

republicans want strong borders, no crime, no chaos, and no caravans. >> the democrats want to have open borders, and they want to invite -- caravan after caravan into our country. >> this will be the election of kavanaugh, the caravans, law and order, tax cuts, and common sense! and this is "up." i'm david gura. it's clear president trump also wants to be the assignment editor-in-chief influencing what gets covered and what doesn't. it's no secret the president wants the focus on immigration the next three days, which may explain why he is so frustrated. donald trump is living a personal night mayor, "daily beast" reports.

he finds himself unable to influence what the political press is covering. that's because the press has been busy covering the aftermath of a mass shooting at a pittsburgh synagogue, just a day after a suspect was arrested for mailing pipe bombs to several of the president's political opponents. on the white house lawn a reporter asked president trump if his rhetoric could incite violence. the president tried to change the subject using another diversionary tactic, which you could call his, i know you are, but what am i strategy. >> we did have two maniacs stop a momentum, that was incredible, because for seven days, nobody talked about the elections. it stopped a tremendous momentum. >> that's the president there when it comes to the shooting and package bombs. he's ready to move on and wants supporters to be focused on the midterms. >> -- americans say you're encouraging -- [ indiscernible ]. >> no, no. you know what? you're creating violence by your question. you are creating -- you. and also a lot of the reporters

are creating violence by not writing the truth. the fake news is creating violence. >> another major effort to change the suggest this week with this tweet. sanctions are coming november 5th, drawing inspiration from hbo's "game of thrones." tweeting that image. later a reference to the administration's plans to reimpose sanctions on iran. hbo replying, how do you say trademark disuse in dartherion? you could sense how people in that room felt when that wasn't the lead story on monday morning it was about a plane crash, but quickly moved on to any number of other stories, and you've sensed the importance of that locally. of course it's important nationally, internationally as well. your sense of the effectiveness of the president's strategy here in getting us to move on from

something like that? on the ground everybody felt it was a transformational moment. coupled with the package bombs, enough that things had to change. did we reach a point at which the president's hitting his limits to change the conversation in the country? >> sure. dangers of someone's neighbor walk in to a synagogue and kill people. it's just complete tone deaf. and just political gamesmanship to such an extent that if you were a supporter in and around pittsburgh, which there are many, you know, trump supporters there, you just kind of have to take a step back and say, we just had one of the worst attacks in recent memory. this is domestic extremism. you're more likely to be killed by an american extremist than you are by isis. a caravan is not threatening you. you're looking at pictures of women and children mostly being carried up through mexico. you're sending troops to the

border. who is here deal wig non-white supreme sifts on these platforms dealing with this? this has been coming for ten years. at fbi headquarters i remember us talking, when will people see the dangers of domestic extre extremist the same way? uses that language. just a couple of nuts. these are known nuts. oftentimes they're in these platforms but we treat them as un-offs. this is a major issue we have in this country, and it is the real extremism focus, or shoulding. >> pushing back against my friend. not pushing back against my friend clint watts, but not enough emotion. he said tone deaf. clint said it's political gamemanship, i would say it this way. a nazi murdered jewish-americans in their sanctuary, and this president is upset that it hurt his momentum. this should be a scandal of epic proportion. this is what we should be -- that's how i think we should be talking about it and thinking about it. he is saying that before, before

the events of last week, without the humanizing of these people, they were talking about the electi election. look what happened. it is horrific. >> it is strange they don't put the pictures up. i would put up a picture. migrant caravan and the guy in the synagogue. which are you more worried about? astounding to me that's happy been push -- hasn't been pushed out there. let the president reinsert the agenda. >> how do you keep the focus on something like this? look back on the last few years and even farther. a fast-moving news cycle. how do you make sure this is different? >> what the media and people are talking about are different on a regular basis. >> yeah. >> i would add a third shooting committed in kentucky. the three acts of violence committed within the same week are all white nationalists violence. we have to label that correctly, and we have to connect these things together so we know what we're looking for.

and i just, just to quote andrew gillum. when racists say you're racist, there is no debate. no debate whether or not donald trump is a racist. she he's shown that over and over, but are we okay with a president that articulates racist ideas that can leez to violence down the line and what do we citizen doss about that? vote against republicans on tuesday trying to make democrats be the check on his rhetoric and behavior? perhaps, but i hope, we have to connect more directly the fact that all three acts of violence were racist. >> thank you for bringing that up. as i said on the ground in pittsburgh, a hell of a week last week. up next on "up," the real life consequences of president trump's border policy. called wasteful and a political stunt. checkout is at 4pm. plenty of time to enjoy your ride. (bicycle bell sound) ♪ ♪

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. at this very moment, large, unorganized caravans are marching towards our southern border. some people call it an invasion. it's like an invasion. they've overrun the mexican police and they've overrun and hurt badly mexican soldiers. so this isn't an innocent group of people. we're not going put up with that. they want to throw rocks at our military, our military fights back. when they throw rocks like they

did at the mexican military and police i say consider it a rifle, because there's not much difference when you get hit in the face with a rock. >> that was president trump earlier this week. welcome back to "up." i'm david gura. clarifying comments about mexicans crossing the border. >> mr. president, are you really okay with the u.s. military firing on the caravan people? >> they won't have to fire, but i don't want, i don't want these people throwing rocks. i didn't say shoot. but they do that with us, they're going to be arrested for a long time. >> criticism of what the president has proposed. at a rally in florida president obama criticized the decision to send thousands of troops to the u.s.-mexico border. >> they're even taking our brave troops away from their families for a political stunt at the border. and the men and women of our military deserve better than that.

>> clint watts start with you. the political consequences and the pole consequences as well. we know you can learn from history. back to 1997a bit of a news report from may of that year. >> here's what the west texas grand jury was told. 18-year-old ezekiasooeezekiel h ez was shot to death by a u.s. marine helping the border patrol on the war on drugs along the rio grande. >> on a lot of folks minds as what's being proposed here. you heard the president backing away from what he said about rocks and rifles. talking about rules of engagement. we have our rules, defense department has theirs but greeted with a policy decision not well thought through. don't know what's in it and a lot of ambiguity what's happening on the ground, and the commander in chief saying

something far different than -- more chances just in terms of training accidents, by the way and other things. what happens if we have a couple soldiers die because a helicopter mechanical problem now or a jeep rolls over, something like that? this is not -- it's not a -- it's probably likely. this happens whenever you do deployments like this. you're putting people in harm's way even just moving personnel around, and what for? what for? what is this really for? what are they going to do at the border? they're going to fill sandbags, roll out wire. very little is going to happen. this is not an application for the use of military force. insufficient discussion about why we would deploy military force down there. remember back to puerto rico. one of the issues of the delay getting troops down there, was declaring humanitarian -- wasn't authorized to move the force because the livers hadn't been put in place.

we have a bogus caravan and suddenly are moving troops down there. i have confidence in the leaders especially on the ground. we forget they've been in iraq and afghanistan the last 15 years. >> sure. >> and in a lot of weird situations dealing with civilian populations. these soldiers, in some cases, out in the middle of baghdad guarding installations, dealing with real danger. i thinkhand le it properly, but the question is why? you spent your last holiday on a hilltop in afghanistan with limited support and your country not talking about it. before that, back in iraq the third time trying to fight an isis threat somebody said had gone away before. this creates morale problems and calls into question, what am s politician or really defending my country? >> to the degree this is working, this emphasis on immigration. a few weeks back looking at

polling. immigration wasn't that important. it's moving up somewhat. why is that happening? >> a culture issue that matters to his deep, deep base. >> and nothing beyond that. i don't. it's not impacting ind dent voters and moderate republicans twingeing towards democrats. especially the white suburban college educated women. in 2016 in our election, now 2018 in the midterm election. one final point. >> please. >> remember when secretary clinton said that donald trump did not have the temperament to be commander in chief? >> right. >> we are seeing that come into full force by deploying our military to a part of the country, to our border, where it is not needed. to the point you were making. taking people away from their families for the holidays. a point i'm glad president obama made yesterday. these are people with real lives going down there for a political ploy donald trump is --

>> clint made a point about the morale of the military like the pret ca president cares about that. when did they become so bed wetters that they're afraid of migrants and rocks? a frayed of people trying to seek a better life? the idea we're sending our military made up mostly of religious people to fight, mostly christians, and the other side of the border, an interesting way to frame it. another element that might come to play, i hope at least in discussion. special coverage of the midterm election all weekend with joy reid returning for a special at 6:00 p.m. eastern time followed by a saturday edition of the "the last word with lawrence o'donnell." up next, the latest polling from the lone star state.y manat seem the same, but some give their clients cookie cutter portfolios. fisher investments tailors portfolios to your goals and needs. some only call when they have something to sell. fisher calls regularly so you stay informed.

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♪ we've got a long way to go ♪ and a short time to get there. ♪ ♪ i'm eastbound, just watch ole bandit run. ♪ whatever party you've got goin' in the back, we've got the business up front. ♪ welcome back. i'm david. perhaps no race has been more closely watched and talked about than ted cruz versus beto o'rourke. pollsters says cruz has a 3-point edge in the margin of error. early voting is key and in the 30 texas counties that report early voting totals home to 78%

of registered voters in the state, more people have voted early in 2018 than voted at all in 2014. joining us now from dallas is abby livingston. great to speak with you on this saturday morning. more than anything, this money that beto o'rourke raised in the polls? what's your sense of why that is happening now, abby. >> well, i think there's a lot of young people who are notorious about not coming to the polls in midterms. they are turning out at a level we have not seen. but i will caution at the same time what could be happening is republicans who are nervous voters are turning out, too. so this is just really weird in the wild west of trying to figure out what is going on three days out from this race.

>> alley, the single hardest thing right now is to predict the millennial turnout. are we any better at doing that now than we were in 2014 and 2015? >> there is a lot of enthusiasm between young ma millennials. they say what happens had when they don't turn out and what is at stake. but i think to the point that abby just made down there, convention conventional wisdom would say these people are not turning out early for ted cruz, right, but at the same time, we don't know. >> it's their future. they better vote. it's going to affect them. they better vote. if they're up watching right now, you better vote. >> after talking about climate change and the climate report that hayes you have about 20 years to get it together. but i also would make the decision between the types of millennials. so i'm a millennial, but i'm different than a 20-year-old.

i'm like the oldest millennial that exists. so what i'm thinking about in materials of my student loans and buying a home and trying to get out of debt, that's a different level or slate of concerns than a young millennial who is looking to go to college or grad school. so i think what democrats are trying to do is have a message that resinates with both of those groups. but when we talk about young voters and millennials not turning out, we're way overbroad. and a 35-year-old is going to vote, right? a 35-year-old is different than a 22-year-old. and so i think we have to make that distinction when we're talking about millennials. we fail to make that distinction often. so i just wanted to make that point. >> abby, i wanted to ask you about the import of this race. we're focused on it and for many reasons the charisma of the democratic candidate. and then you look at the fund-raising figures, as well. why is this race so important? help us understand the import of this race. >> well, i think it's important for two reasons.

democrats have a very, very slim chance of taking the majority back. and that would probably come through texas. but more, even larger than that is the historical outlook. if oh rock can can build the party out in texas, that is a major step forward in making texas competitive, both at the presidential level and from possibly breaking up the gerrymander that has had a stranglehold on this state for a very long time. and so it would be a major step forward for democrats where it's been very, very bad. it has been a decrepit state party. so it is all about the future and i think it's even more than the senate race in the majority. >> adrian, last to you. you spent some time in texas. >> i have. and i ran a congressional race in texas. >> why is it so important? >> why is texas so important? >> yeah. this race in particular. >> this could decide the makeup of the senate and who is in power in the senate. the fact that texas is even in play is significant.

i ran a congressional race in 2004 in texas after redistricting. the republicans always had an edge in gerrymandering the state, using the census data to their advantage mid cycle. this would be a nice comeback for democrats if they could take the seat. >> on that note, pete, thanks very much. clint watts, abby livingston, thank you for joining us. up next, steve kornacki will dig into the race as he is watching. no one knows the numbers better than him. he is going to join us right here. ♪ ♪

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democrats' plan to destroy health care includes raiding medicare to fund benefits for illegal immigrants. by the way, they will shut down. if the midterms for some reason don't do well for republicans, i think you're all going to lose a lot of money. >> they want to take away your good health care and essentially use socialism to turn america into venezuela. >> well, good morning. this is "up." i'm david gura. three days from the midterm election, watching as president trump throws everything at the wall tse