good evening and welcome to politics nation. it's the dramatic final weekend before this pivotal mid-term election day. just three days before millions of americans decide who they'll entrust their government at every level. local, state, and congressional. in just a few minutes, we will give you the latest poll numbers available, but of course looming over all of this, president trump, who made a fourth and final stump in montana a few hours ago where he continued his intensified campaign trail attacks on anyone outside of his base. >> the choice in this election could not be more simple. a republican congress means more jobs and less crime. a democrat congress means more

crime and less jobs. very simple. right? >> the latest washington poll of voters in battle ground districts finds democrats with a 4% edge. but it remains to be seen if that edge will translate into the crucial turn out that they will need to counter a record early voting cycle. nearly 33 million americans casting early ballots thus far. slightly favoring republicans nationally. both parties have been paying special attention to the deep south where a pair of highly contentious gubernatorial races have been the potential to make history. in the battle ground state of florida, democrat andrew gillum has a slight lead within the margin of error over republican, ron desantis. in a contest defined by racial

controversy, if elected, gillum would be florida's first black governor. in georgia, african-american democrats, stacey abrams, is in a dead heat against republican, brian kemp. in a race marred by allegations of voter suppression. if elected, e brahms would be the first black governor of georgia and the first black woman ever to govern an american state. we'll get deeper into the numbers and our talk to rapper, common. common will be here later about why he is stumping for the democrats in those two races. joining me now, nbc news political contributor, heidi is the managing editor of the beat d.c., tiffany cross and republican strategist and author, noelle.

they are saying that it's record numbers in early voting, slightly favoring the republicans. this is going to come down to turn out. >> right. >> a lot of the turn out in solid trump-favored states is being energized or attempted to by the president, who has been in the middle of various controversial statements like saying he wants to end birth right citizenship. he wants to put thousands of troops at the border against the caravan, even though it's 800 miles out. is he helping or hurting? >> we'll find out november 6th if his rhetoric is going to be helping his base turn out that vote or if it's going to be hurting that. i have never seen with mid-terms, reverend, i have never seen it this neck and neck. i have never seen enthusiasm on

both sides. what trump is doing a test. i think he is trying to rally that base that is a faithful base to him. not are inially to the go approximat p, but to him. the burden to pull the people to the polls. some of these people who voted for trump were not republicans. they were independents and voted for him. the trick is, are these people that voted for trump, the trump people and the trump base, are they going to show up and turn out and vote and bring it home, bring the red wave home for president trump? >> when we look at this though, you would think what a lot of the opposition and the resistance movement on policy that some of us are involved in and others aren't political question. you would think it wouldn't be neck and neck in some of these states. what are you finding is the reason it's so close? >> because it's a split screen election. you have the senate election,

which is in ruby red rural states like montana where the president's base reigns supreme. then you have the house race where the real battle grounds are these suburban districts where moderate swing voters are going to make the difference. i think the president's strategy here could be very effective when it comes to the rural voters with some of the ads he is running. the closing argument is not an economic argument. it is a cultural argument. he is convincing them we have an invasion, a crisis on our southern border. i saw a reuters poll the other day that said that this issue, the caravan, is registering an 8 out of 10 on the anger scale for his voters. there is good evidence. >> 8 out of 10? >> on the anger scale, correct. let me take you over to the house. i spent the past couple of days

in suburban richmond and there you have a very different story. there you have kind of a battle between the -- what they call the country club republicans, moderate republicans who voted in the past for folks like eric ka kantor and who are voting as a protest vote to the stoking of cultural animation. you could see a backlash. you are seeing early voting numbers modelling last year's 2017 gubernatorial race. we saw a number of democrats sweep in at the legislative level and a democratic governor. >> now, tiffany, a lot of what we are hearing is race-tinged, especially from the president. we even had his ex-lawyer, michael cohen come out yesterday

in "vanity fair," saying he has privately witnessed the president saying racist things. this is the first time in my lifetime that i can identify a black even in the west wing of the white house. many have said that people like me think whites are just racist, which is not true. i think there are many whites even that support trump that are not racist, but some are. don't you feel that the president thinks that they are at least inclined to tolerate racism? because he keeps leaping on what some say are dog whistles. i don't say that because unless i have dog ears, i understand exactly what he is saying. it's not dog whistling. the question becomes race has played a central role. he is it not talking about the economy or jobs. he is talking about cultural and race issues. >> absolutely, rev.

i'm curious to meet one person who was surprised by michael cohen's revelation that this president made racist comments about black people. i don't think any of us were surprised. i'm in miami and i'm going to borrow a phrase from andrew gillum and say we are not saying donald trump is a racist, but i'm saying the racists believe he's a racist as evidenced by his policy and the rhetoric and the cultural war he tried to drive in this country. she talked about republicans and is he helping or hurting. this is a good lesson for republicans to understand when they thought they won in 2016. they didn't win. donald trump won. he is using this tactic because it worked for him in 2016. it bears repeating that found voter who is switched from obama

to trump held overwhelmingly hostile views on race and to a lesser degree, women. to say this was economic angst is a misnomer. racism got him to the white house. will racism deliver him the house and the senate this time around? i'm willing to bet it won't. >> when we look at the fact that we have a president that has, as you said, gone with the cultural wars and a lot of things that is divicive, and you have former president barack obama out now, the contrast couldn't be more striking in the last 48 hours between how president trump behaves and how former president obama behaves. will that make a difference with the independent voters that you talked about who are not are inially republicans, who are not are inially trump fans, but voted for trump when they can

see with their own two eyes the difference between what we had two years ago and what we have now. >> oh, yeah. there is a huge difference when president obama gets in rallies with a crowd, how he rallies a crowd versus how trump rallies a crowd. their styles are completely different. the question is, which style is going to turn out the independent? what are they going to do? nobody knows the minds of the independent. if you look at it, they have swung both ways and wanted to put obama in the white house and they put donald trump in the white house. the trick of it is, donald trump is not on the ballot. donald trump is not on the ticket. he has the burden of trying to convince his base to get out. >> he's not on the ticket, heidi, but he made himself the person that is in the center of this race. he said this is about me.

has he not made this about donald trump? >> absolutely. he made that clear. also in the states that he is traveling to, if you look where they are deploying this president, it is not to the swing districts. it's places like montana, chattanooga, ft. wayne, indiana. places where this cultural closing argument may work to help some of those senate candidates knock off some of the democrats, but i bring you back to -- this message, even if he is making it in montana is going to be broadcast in those more moderate swing districts as well. it is going to come down to the independents. we are seeing in the early turn out numbers that in places like florida and georgia, those candidates are doing great in terms of both sides in terms of turning out their base. it will be a historic election.

we haven't seen turn out like this, some of the analysts say we could reach 50%, which is a number we haven't seen in mid-terms since the turbulent 60s. it's because both sides of turning out. it will come down to the voters in the middle and which argument they are swayed by. >> quickly, tiffany, we have to go to a next block, but let me ask you this. we see progressive candidates like in florida and georgia and texas, democrats. will this change the democrats? will we now have openly progressive democrats dominatingidominating i ing the party. is the centrist blue dog democrat over with? >> i don't know that they are over with, but i know they redefined what electability means. there are younger and newer people coming to the party. >> these are not new people.

stacey abrams and andrew gillum are young, but they have been in politics for over a decade. >> they are new because they're young. they have not been on the national stage for the past 20 years. stacey abrams has been doing this since she was 19, but they are new to the national stage and new faces to the democratic party. i think people like that have pushed the party to the left and again, kamala harris is not new to the democratic party. she has been doing work for a long time, but her policies have been pushed to the left by the younger candidates like alexandria cortez and andrew gillum out of florida. this is a great lesson to republicans and democrat that is the party does not define the people. the people define the party. when the party realizes that, they can take control. >> stay with us. up next, new numbers show an exceptionally high turn out of early voters for mid-term elections, but who has the edge

as of now? and a programming note, m srsnb live late tonight. join joy reed, ari mel ber, stephanie huhle and lawrence o'donnell for discussion three days before the mid-terms. watch tonight here on msnbc. ♪ the new capital one savor card. earn 4% cash back on dining and 4% on entertainment. now when you go out, you cash in. what's in your wallet?

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. we are three days out from the mid-terms and to put into perspective how important the 2018 elections are, let's look at the numbers. so far, nearly 33 million americans have voted early or absentee nationwide. that's up from 27 million in 2014. another poll shows 31% of millennials say they will definitely vote in the mid-terms. about a quarter are still uncertain. another 19% say they probably or definitely will not vote. here to crunch some numbers is michael mcdonald, florida university professor who specializes in american elections and kyle leerman, former adviser for president obama and the ceo of when we all

vote. scenarios saw what's happen? all will be known on election day. the truth is somewhere in between, that we will have an percentage of people voting early. >> kyle, as we look at the numbers and we see the enthusiasm on both sides, what are the indicators you have from where you sit as one who worked with president obama and is heading up the campaign to get all people out to vote with mrs. obama, what indications do

you have that they lean towards the policies of the last administration and maintained and sustained? >> thanks for having me on. when you look at the turn out across the country, it's especially up among young people. we saw in tennessee, early vote turn out was up srnd telephone 00%. in texas up over 400%. we want to make sure we get the word out about the information that they need to get out and vote. they need to know where their polling location is and when it's open and what they need to take to the polls. you are seeing that turn out amongst people of color in ways we haven't seen for years. the turn out among young people, some of the young people may be supporting the republicans because we are seeing a lot of young people at the trump rallies. we even saw the young black

leadership caucus or summit, they called it, at the white house. they were young. so how do we know with youth turn out, if all of that is going one way? >> in 2004, we saw this age gap emerge where young people tend of constituency. preferences among older people diverge. part is due because of the younger people who are often persons of color. persons of color have different preferences than whites over who they support politically. it's all wrappeding to and it's age and race. these things are combine and you get a youth turn out. we are talking about tendencies, but young people are an important part of the coalition.

>> when we see that and the data supports that, what message, unifying message, the democrats have put forward that you think will sudden them to be able to be successful in key gubernatorial races as well as the senate and congressional races that can be taken over if they are successful to 2020 for the presidential elections. >> when they go low, we go high. you have seen folks doing well out there, taking the high road on these issues. focusing on what's important to people's lives and the cost of college and education funding and safe schools, safe streets. those are the messages that voters actually care about. the more that candidates focus on those things, the better they are going to do amongst young people and all people. i think young people especially are tired of giving up their

decision making power to older generations. you are seeing they are fed up with that and see older generations have not voted the right way and haven't voted for policies that will make our future a better place. you are seeing them show up in record numbers. go ahead. >> i was going back to michael on this. one of the things that i noticed is that data is showing the concerns are health care and the economy. what are the main issues from your observing the polling that is really motivating voters? we get a lot of noise and a lot of, in my opinion, inflammatory statements from some, particularly the president. what are the core issues that we are finding that poll stores are saying are the real concerns that are motivating the turn out? >> let me talk a little bit about the landscape of turn out.

in those gubernatorial and engaged. vote close. off of the competitive races where there is all that money flowing in and lots of door knocking going on. people are being contact and there is a lot of energy. let's look at other places. we are seeing high turn out. one of the best examples is north carolina. there is no gubernatorial election. they elect theirs in a presidential year. there is not senate election of the calendar. terms engaged, too, that

country democrats are engaged not so much the republicans. they are very engaged and i don't want to say they are not. democrats are extra. going back to your question, what's motivating these people? there is only one explanation when we look at the places where there shouldn't be high turn out and yet there is. it has to be donald trump. administration. while. happening voting. remarkable election. previous donald trump many ways in your term. thank you very much.

coming up, rapper, common, joins me live from florida where he is campaigning for andrew gillum. president trump announced a controversial plan to end birth right citizenship. guess what. i've got a plan for him. next. the sun comes up, the sun goes down. you run those miles, squeeze the toothpaste from the bottom and floss to set a good example. you fine tune the proposal, change the water jug so no one else has to, get home for dinner and feed the cat. you did a million things for your family today but speaking to pnc to help handle all your investments

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be there for you, and them. ask your gastroenterologist about humira. with humira, control is possible. first, it continues to pay paramedics while we're on break. second, it ensures the closest ambulance can respond if you call 9-1-1. vote yes on 11. recently, more than $20 million has been spent in the race for superintendent of public instruction to attack my friend tony thurmond's record. well, i've worked with tony, and no one is more qualified to lead our state's schools. that's why tony thurmond is the only candidate endorsed by classroom teachers and the california democratic party. because tony will stand up to the donald trump-betsy devos agenda and has always protected our local public schools. join me in voting for tony thurmond. let's put our kids first. proposition 11 "proposition 11 is a vote to protect patient safety." it ensures the closest ambulance remains on-call

during paid breaks "so that they can respond immediately when needed." vote yes on 11. and now for my weekly memo to president trump. who this week announced his plans to end birth right citizenship. a provision that gives children born on american soil automatic u.s. citizenship. >> how ridiculous. we are the only country in the world where a person comes in and has a baby and the baby is a citizen with all those benefits for 85 years. >> first, mr. trump, you're wrong. the united states is not the only country in the world that offers birth right citizenship.

canada and brazil have that, too. second, you do realize that birth right citizenship is provided for by the 14th amendment that reads in part, "all persons born or naturalized in the united states and subject to the jurisdiction there of are citizens of the united states and of the state where in they reside." let me tell you what i think. first of all the 14th amendment was put there because it dealt with the status of freed slaves whose parents were not citizens because they were enslaved and put there so we could be citizens and enjoy the rights of citizens. as much of which you say it is race-tinged, it is also affecting members of your own family, mr. trump. that leads me to say i don't think you believe you are going to do this anyway because an

executive order can't overturn an amendment in the constitution. you know you are playing to the crowd and just baiting us against them. it's like i was recently in texas looking for the wall that you would make mexico pay for. you say things that you know you are not going to do. it is not me and others that question why your followers believe you. it is you that belittled them by saying things that you and i know are not even possible to happen. be right back with rapper and social activist, common. is about doing things right. and there's no shortcut to the right way. so when we roll out the nation's first 5g ultra wideband network, it'll be because we were the first to install the fiber-optics and small cells, and upgrade the towers that will change the way we learn, work and live. and i'll always be proud that we're not just building

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one of the most closely watched and talked about races this election is florida's race for governor. this morning democratic candidate andrew gillum rallied young voters at the university of central florida and was joined by actor and rapper, common, who took the stage with a freestyle rap. >> this is what we doing off the dome. mandeville saying he going to bring it home. we feel him because he's so real. this is the skill. i came down to florida, yes i am an auritor. this is my man and he will get

the governor. i'm loving our process. i came to battle and i we shout out the rattlers. you might just want to pass me. that's the mayor and the mayor from tallahassee. >> joining me now is rapper and actor, common. thank you for being with us this evening, common. >> peace, how you doing, reverend? >> i'm doing good. i have known you for years and people need to know that you are consistently out on social justice issues and issues important to you this is not some drive by celebrity thing with you. this is part of who you are. why are the races in florida and georgia so important that you have come in and not just made a statement, but put yourself in the races to support the candidates you choose? >> i feel like florida and georgia right now with andrew gillum and stacey abrams have a

chance to create history and the narrative of our country. so many times we think about florida as a state that has been divicive in many ways. been divided and georgia being a southern state that always has been not inclusive. right now, we have leaders who represent our people. they represent our people. you can tell each one of them have a characteristic we want our leaders to have. florida deserves it. deserves andrew gillum and georgia deserves stacey abrams. you see the humanity and that's what we need. >> you come from chicago and you have always been true to your roots, but you have been able to also relate to all kinds of people and have fans are all races and walks of life. what are you hearing from people as you move around the country

because you are one of the few big stars that talk to people. what are the concerns of people that make you feel like this election is so important? >> people want opportunities. people want to feel secure and that they have leadership that will represent things that they have passion and interest for. a lot of that, a lot of that is education which andrew gillum and stays abrams both have. increasing education for all walks of life for all our kids. then also job opportunities and something. one of the things i think is special about andrew and stacey abrams, there perspective with criminal justice reform. a lot of people don't think about that. they throw away those who are part of the criminal justice system. those individuals the way we look at our individuals that are pushed down is the way our

society is deemed. that's how we act. if we don't look at people part of the justice system and see the humanity, how can we see it in others? i feel like the fact that andrew gillum is really trying to make sure that people who have been still if they have rehabilitated themselves and if stacey abrams understands we need reform with how our system has targeted black and brown people for so long. we have to have that in america for us all to get lifted to the right place. >> you have a lot of young people that listen to you. there has been a big increase in terms of millennial and young voters. those that have not voted in the last day of early voting in florida is tomorrow are those that can vote on tuesday. what is the message from common to a lot of his young fans that

will listen to you that will not listen to those of us who are older? >> my message to the youth, y'all power is strong. you let your voices be heard through protests and social needia. one of the ways to complete the action is to go out and vote. where the police are killing young people or whether it's you not having the opportunity to have access to education. some of that is strictly about voting and getting the right leaders in office that will have the interests at order. i feel like the vote is one of the most important things. if you are complaining about what you see with trump in the administration doing, go out and vote.

you can make a change on a local state and you can continue to have that happen. that's the checks and balances we need for those that are in washington to go out and make sure we have governors and representatives that represent us as a people. come on, young people. we need y'all now more than ever. show your heart and intelligence to do it. let's go vote now. i'm in miami and other places tomorrow trying to get out and people vote on the last day of voting. you got a little freestyle you should tell me i should do at the churches tomorrow? >> make sure you get it lit by just bringing it home. bring it home mentality. you got the gift of words and i know you got it. >> i'm the og of freestyle. me and you know that.

>> come on. give me a couple right now. >> no, i will wait until i get to churches in the moment. thank you for taking the time to stop by. >> god bless. >> god bless you. up next, just three days out, folks. you are watching politics nation. trump: angry, left-wing mob

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>> you are looking at another location where president trump is expected to lead a rally in just about an hour. this one in pensacola, florida. let's talk about the trump factor in these mid-terms. we are back with the politics national political correspondent, managing editor of the beat d.c., tiffany cross and republican strategist and author, noelle. noelle, what is the trump factor in this race? we talked a lot about florida and georgia tonight, but you have tennessee, you have texas,

you have arizona. all of which there will be some impact either way with the trump factor. what will it mean? >> the trump factor is interesting. i feel like the trump factor is like he's running for office. have you not noticed he is rallying like he is running for office? why? because he has to. the momentum, i feel like on the gop was not there. the momentum on the democrat side was going wild. they were looking for the blue wave. we had to find a way to rally our base. that is president trump. he is the number one rallying guy. look at him. he is stopping and the crowds are large. whether or not to my original point, whether or not that will make a difference in an election day is going to be yet to be seen. you have a different type of voter here. it's not just the gop. it's the trump voter.

can he get them out and can he get them to vote, especially in florida. you had common on. this is very important. not only is it important for the republican party, if they keep it red, let's look at 2020. we depend on florida to bring us home as republicans. if we lose that, if common is right and if we lose that and it goes blue, that is scary for the republicans for 2020. >> let me go to you, tiffany. noelle said something that stuck in my mind because of what president trump said. there was a tremendous enthusiasm and momentum with the democrats. he said two maniacs did something that hurt that momentum, talking about the deplorable killing in pittsburgh of 11 jews for being jewish last week. and of course, what has happened in terms of the pipe bomb that

had been sent to leading critics of his. kind of a cynical, political, insensitive statement that, insensitive statement that you know looking at the humanity of the lives lost or the threats and trauma caused, but it broke our momentum after kavanaugh, is basically what trump was saying. >> right. well cynical and insince o sensitive but not surprising. of course he can't extend any humanity because that would require him to take responsibility for some of the rhetoric coming out of his camp echoed by his party. i think noel made a good point about the rallies and the enthusiasm on the gop side. but i would caution people and say that those rallies are the same people. those are the same trump supporters we saw in 2016 because we have seen that his base is not going anywhere. there is nothing that's going to penetrate a lower of woeful

ignorance and fear that drives some of the enthusiasm that we have seen. not all of the enthusiasm but some of the enthusiasm we have seen come out of his base. on the democratic side i think you have seen a new electorate. there is a "washington post" poll shows millennial votes up overwhelming tli. and more people of color are voting at the state, federal and local level this time around. it's interesting to see people off the sidelines. you see barack obama engaging in a way like not before. appear common like other people. it's interesting that the republicans are having challenges with suburban women and their tactic in georgia by mike pence was to attack oprah. i'm in the sure that was your best move if you are having trouble with suburban women. so i don't think that the republican base is necessarily growing. i think it's actually a shrinking base. i think all of the polling data doesn't necessarily reflect that

because you see so many new people into the party. and i think that we will see a lot on november 6th that a lot of people haven't considered. we talked about this before, rev on your radio show, so many people after andrew gillum won baffled and who is this guy? there was a lot of us who knew who he was, covering his campaign since the beginning. it's presented a challenge for the media and the political base to look at how we capture some of these trends that we're seeing in midterm. >> and knew him before that he was a state legislator when i met him and has been mayor of dallascy. but heidi, is there any evidence that since president trump has been in office almost two years that his base has expanded any? >> there is no evidence of that at all. and just by the message that he is delivering i think he is understanding that as well, that he is going back to his base.

but i think to noel's point about how to read the tea leaves, she is right, that everything depends here on the president being able to turn out the numbers in florida at the same levels he did in 2016 because they came out for him in trophies. but here is the important difference between today and 2016. what you did not have in 2016 was a fired up democratic base. there were a lot of democrats who didn't vote, who stayed home. and that's not going to be the case necessarily in in election. we're already seeing early anecdotal evidence that all of the new voter registrations are redounding to the democrat advantage. let me take you down to fwa, for example, where there is early in georgia. but in the early vote 36% are the newly registered voters. when you drill down deeper you see women far outpace men. that's good for democrats.

and whites only make up about just over 50%. what you see is a lot of new minority voter registration. the early evidence, very early because a lot is happening on election day as well, shows that the democrats are succeeding. >> got to go. >> and doing what they failed to do in 2016. >> thank you, heidi. tiffany and noel. and right after us on msnbc join joy reid, then ari melber, stephanie ruhle and lawrence o'donnell for a special night of analysis and discussion three days before the midterm election. on lawrence o'donnell miracle on the hudson, pilot chelscy sulen berg. joan rowe joins lawrence. up next my final thoughts, why i'm headed to florida tonight.

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which plug in to extend the wifi even farther, past anything that stands in its way. ...well almost anything. leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today. tomorrow is the last day of early voting in florida. and as i told common, i'm on my way there tonight. i'll speak at four or five churches there tomorrow. churches and civil rights groups don't tell people who to vote for but we tell people to vote. not only out of respect to the sacrifices made for and by our ancestors and forefathers, but voting for what is going on right now and voting for the

future of your children. don't go in and say good morning to your child if you haven't voted for your child to have a stable future. every young person listening to me, when your parent says good morning tomorrow morning, ask them, have you voted if you could vote early? are you voting tuesday? then don't tell good morning if you are not going to make sure my morning's in the future are good. so don't only vote for the past. vote for the present and the future. one of the things that we are emphasizing tomorrow as we tour and do souls the polls is giving those a chance that have been caught up in the criminal justice system and paid their dues, ex-felons, amendment 4 in florida. i'll be on the ground in florida and live on politics nation tomorrow night from florida. i'm on the battlefield. you can't fight if you're not on the battlefield. that does it for me i'll see you

back here tomorrow 5:00 p.m. eastern. msnbc live coverage continues right now with the vote, america's future, with my colleague joy reid. ♪ ♪ what was most meaningful was standing there yesterday talking and knowing that my mom and dad could see that the sacrifices they made for us, the work they did for me and my five brothers and sisters came to fruition. and that we are on the precipice of changing what leadership looks like and to have your mother appear father, who they are raising my niece right now, they have a 12-year-old at home. they are the living embodiment of why we did this work. >> good evening i'm joy reid appear welcome to msnbc continuing coverage of what could be t