data here. democrats are holding a 7 point advantage, that a slight drop from last month. 43% of those polled want republicans in charge. among registered voters, 49% want democrats to control congress and president trump's job approval numbers remain essentially unchanged. 52% disapprove of his performance in office. i want to kick things off with mark murray, also here steve israel, christina greer, and joshua johnson. mark, walk us through this. i mentioned the seven points. give us your broad headline. >> yeah, we just got off the phone with you are our pollstery said this is a kaleidoscope where it could be a really good night for democrats. they do better among likely voters. normally it is the other way

around because republicans usually turn out more. they are ahead among independent voters. they are doing well with college educated white women. but if you turn it another way, you see that the republicans could actually be hanging in. you have president trump's job rating at 46% among likely voters. that is an improvement. the enthusiasm democrats still maintain that advantage. but it has gotten closer. and when you end up looking into the battlegrounds and those rated by the cook political report, you see very close contests up and down. and the way i've viewed these elections, sometimes these all break one way and we'll see if they break one way or the other way or right down the middle. >> and you can jump in with questions. but let me ask you about that distinction between likely voters and registered voters. at this point, help us understand the nuance between those two groups. >> registered voters are the broad group of people who are registered to vote. likely voters are the narrow ones, people who the pollsters actually think are likely to show up. and if you end up saying that

you are a highly interested person, and you have voted before are or you are a younger voter expressing you a high level of interest, we count you as likely voter. sometimes you might look at a different poll and see what is going on. but to me it is more notable that we are assuming a better likely voter landscape for democrats than among just the broader swathe of registered voters. >> congressman, get in here. >> i would have taken those numbers any hour in a tough cycle. every midterm election is a referendum on the president and the president's party. a seven point lead in the generic is enough for the democrats to win the house. that is indisputable. the question is will they win it by taking in 26 or adding a net of 26, 27 or the mid-30s. i think that it will be closer to the mid-30s. it is also a referendum on the president's job afternoon approval. and when you are looking at low to mid 340% job approval for the

president, that tells you that it is also a good night for the democrats. the thing that i would really love to parse is where are independent voters breaking. independent voters reserve judgment, they really kind of wait for the last biweekend. and what i'm hearing is that they seem to be chris rystal i'r the democrats. i'd be curious whether that theory is from this polling. >> so among likely voters in our poll, we had independents breaking 12 points in the democrat s direction. and democrats have a double digit lead among independents and also the enthusiasm advantage. and that is when you talk about the political kaleidoscope, when you turn it that earn is way and you say democrats have the enthusiasm advantage and are ahead with the middle of the electorate, they will have a very good night. there is just the uncertainty i think from the 2016 election and also we are showing just high level of interest almost

presidential level quality. and that has introduced a high degree of uncertainty. we've never seen an electorate like this. so i think we have to be prepared for the unexpected as well. >> and you did a poll. 40% of registered voters say it will be a signal of opposition to president trump, 32% say a sign of support. 28% say it won't be a signal at all. what are you two looking at? >> i was hoping that the data would be desegregateded. because when we talk about women, i want to know about black women and about white women because we know white women tend to behave in a particular fashion. so that was my biggest issue with the poll. i want to know the nuance. when we say that the president has a 46% approval rating, are these the republicans who filled out the surveyor are we looking at predominantly men who are pushing those numbers up.

so i'm really curious as to some of the gee glaographic nuance a well. we're seeing the enthusiasm gap. you take someone like andrew gillum who really galvanized young people in florida. so i want to see how that flushes out. >> and we've been able to dig in. and while looking at african-american women is too small, we have democrats with very big leads with african-americans in this generic ballot. we see intensity where what tee knows, african-americans and even millennials are more excited than they have been in past midterms. and white women, democrats have a 28% lead there. so when you look at all these groups to groups to groups, it does look very good for about democrats and even our republican pollster ended up saying that republicans have made this closer. when i look at the totality of all these numbers, these are really tough numbers for republicans to win nationally. >> and i'm also interested in the nature of how we look at

voter enthusiasm this time around. usually you have the presidential election, it is a big deal and then things calm down. and they ramp up around the midterms and then they calm down and then it is a big deal again. everything has been a big deal since 2016. has anyone slept? but voters have been fired up since election day. i'm wondering where we go from enthusiasm to exhaustion. this same poll also talked about voters who didn't want this just to be about republicans or democrats. the number one issue voters are googling is not donald trump, it is health care, solidly. so enthusiasm right now as we look at like campaign rallies and people wearing red hats -- >> and now green hats. >> yeah, i don't know what that is about. but i wonder -- >> a color blindness test. does exactly. i wonder if the calculus for voter enthusiasm has to adjust

because i think people are starting to get exhausted of always being in campaign season. we'd like to talk policy just once. >> we're excited and exhausted and we'll get our sleep hopefully on thursday and friday. we'll see. but the way that we measure enthusiasm in our poll, we ask people on a one to ten point scale how interested are you in these upcoming elections. and we identify high enthusiasm, people say either a nine or a ten, and what is extraordinary, we ended up having 70% of registered voters either at a nine or a ten. to put that in perspective, in october of 2016, it was at 72%. so we are seeing almost a presidential level type of enthusiasm where normally midterms like this, oh, this doesn't matter. i think that you are right, this is the neutral reality, but interest is sky high. and i do think this presents unpredictability. >> and we looked at the closing argument that candidate donald trump made in 2016 juxtaposed to

2018. let's take a listen and look at that contrast. >> we're hours away from a once in a lifetime change. we're going to have real change. >> this is one of the most important elections of our entire lives. >> the first thing we should did, let's get rid of hillary. >> remember when my opponent in the last race went to another state about four weeks before she got to west virginia, remember that? >> and, yes, we will build a great, great wall. >> and we started the wall and we built 1.6 billion. >> look at this place, is this incredible? it is almost 1:00 in the morning. >> wow, look at that crowd. if this election is based on crowds, they might as well cancel it because we won. that is for sure. >> how do you react to that?

you are looking at the data here, but we talk about where we've come since 2016. how different is the conversation that we're having now? >> some things change, some thins don't. but we actually asked in our new poll this question is do you want to see change the way that president trump is handling h presidency. nearly six in 10 say that they want change. in 2016, that change mantle really helped donald trump. he was able to say you're probably tired of the obama administration, they haven't done anything you wanted. and now in charge people say they want change. and when i look at you our numbers, to me that has to make democrats feel good that it almost looks like a change election. and that comes as we end up having big majorities say that they are satisfied with the economy. they are satisfied with their personal situation about th. so you have the situation where the economic numbers look good, but people do desire change. and i wonder if that is the biggest story tuesday night. >> and there have only been three midterm elections since the civil war where the

president and the president's party have not lost seats. one was in 1934, the other was in bill clinton's final midterm, 2002 george w. bush picked up seats. so these are a referendum on the president. the closing arguments of this midterm have really been fascinating. i think that the closing arguments have been a referendum on anger at the president versus fear by the president. so this president has made this a referendum on fear. he has pulled the fear card. here is why that is backfiring. because those independent voters in the more moderate districts, they don't want to hear about fear. they want to hear about health care and pre-existing conditions. they resent the president talking about this caravan of aliens. they resent how the president responded to the pittsburgh shooting. that is why these independents are breaking for democrats in this poll. >> and i agree he is making it hard for moderate republicans

and independents. we can no longer look at this president a la carte. well, i like the tax breaks and i can leave the racism to the side. he has tripled down on racism, all these other things that are the antithetical to what american democracy is. and so a lot of moderate republicans and candidates running in places like connecticut, they are trying to pit together companya -- coalitions and distance themselves from the president. because remember he said mexicans are rapists and he's tripled down ever since. and now we have a caravan that is 1500 miles away and the language that he is using a making a lot of people very uncomfortable. and it will hurt his party to a certain extent. >> and what are you hearing on your show? >> a lot of people are tired of the vitreal, the rhetoric. there are plenty of trump supporters in our audience.

yes, trump supporters do listen to npr and they are upset that all we talk about is the president's rhetoric, that we don't talk more about the economy or achievements or tax cuts. so there is a real desire to talk about policy. i think the larger fear particularly among listeners that we speak to is what would happen if the president's rhetoric on the campaign trail worked. what if republicans kept the house and the senate? what if republicans kept governorships or picked up a few? what if it works? then what does the democrat being party look like. what does america look like. what does that mean for the democratic leadership that says we're not running on the talk of impeachment, we're running on policy and positivity. what if you fail? then what happens. >> we'll come back and talk more about that. mark murray, thank you for joining us. tonight at a 7:00, kasie hunt will kick off our midterm election special at 9:00, a primetime election team will provide early analysis of the midterms.

we'll give you what you need to know before you cast your vote on tuesday. and coming up, we'll go live to arizona where our reporter is talking to trump voters who are not pleased with the president. what that means for the senate race there. plus in florida, florida, florida, florida, the early voting numbers there are huge. who is showing up and who is staying home. ♪ the new capital one savor card. earn 4% cash back on dining and 4% on entertainment. now when you go out, you cash in. what's in your wallet? (burke) seen it, covered it.

we know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪ tremfya® is for adults with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. with tremfya®, you can get clearer. and stay clearer. in fact, most patients who saw 90% clearer skin at 28 weeks stayed clearer through 48 weeks. tremfya® works better than humira® at providing clearer skin, and more patients were symptom free with tremfya®. tremfya® may lower your ability to fight infections and may increase your risk of infections.

before treatment, your doctor should check you for infections and tuberculosis. tell your doctor if you have an infection or have symptoms such as: fever, sweats, chills, muscle aches or cough. before starting tremfya® tell your doctor if you plan to or have recently received a vaccine. ask your doctor about tremfya®. tremfya®. because you deserve to stay clearer. janssen wants to help you explore cost support options.

welcome back. many races are statistical ties 48 hours out. ment governor's race in florida is a big one. andrew gillum would become the state's first black governor if he were to win. the race there is neck and neck. he is facing ron desantis. president trump stumped for desantis last night in pensacola, florida. >> i will say this, andrew gillum is not equipped to be your governor. just not equipped. it is not for him. it is not for him. he knows it. he won't say it, but he knows it. >> our road warriors are closing following all these contests. catie beck is in south daytona, florida. i want to go to that descriptor. not equipped is what he used to describe andrew gillum. what are voters saying about the rhetoric that we have heard from

this president? >> reporter: both of these campaigns have been bruising in their campaign ads. they spent millions, have gotten national attention because these races are so close. i mean, florida is known for nail biter elections and it will be no different on tuesday. this state is basically evenly divided on both its senate race and its governor's race. but president trump is definitely making florida a top priority in terms of campaign stops. in recent weeks he has been here multiple times, and he is using some tough talk on immigration saying at one point that barbed wire on the u.s. border is a beautiful sight. so certainly speaking to the base, trying to rev up the last minute votes for republicans if he can. here today in daytona beach, we'll seal more trump support headed this way as rudy giuliani will be campaigning with ron desantis. so the stakes are high. and i think democrats are feeling energized with andrew gillum.

but the polls are within the margin of error so it is still a toss up headed into tuesday. it is getting a lot of people to the polls. >> and joshua johnson grew up in west palm beach. he has a question for you. >> i wonderthe -- i wonder how much the candidates are talking policy. i haven't heard a lot of them talking about the big industries like tourism, agriculture, aerospace. climate change is probably a big threat to daytona beach. how much is policy part of the campaign? >> reporter: i think that that is a pretty valid observation. and when you are hear visiting florida, if you are in a hotel room or lobby somewhere and you listen to the campaign ads, very little of it is centered around actual issues. you are not marrying about health care or public school funding. these are things that people are voting on, but it is certainly not some of the things that the candidate and the president has been talking about. so there is singlecertainly a l

policy debate and i think it comes down to the fact that this race is so close, i think both sides are taking their shots where they can and trying to convert voters as quickly as they can before tuesday. >> katie beck with us in south daytona beach. maria, as you listen to that, i wonder if the president can strike that as an achievement. he has been talking about a policy, his immigration policy. are we not talking about other policy issues because of that? is that something that he would credit as a success? >> yeah, i think that he would probably say it is a success. it comes at the cost of an entire country just kind of looking at each other and saying what exactly is going on here. so i think that is the big question. and the republicans are okay with this. what we just heard was the president saying that african-american people are not equipped. and then saying that barbed wire is a beautiful thing. the messaging is keep people of

color out because they are bad for us, they are bad for the country, they are not smart enough. and so in that sense it is a loss for the republican party in the long term because they have to somehow own the fact that they are sitting back and allowing this kind of rhetoric to exist. >> and i have a question for you. i think for all the momentum that democrats have, there are a few areas where they can show some growth in terms of voter appeal. one with millennial voters. and also latin x voters. have democrats reached their full potential there or do they still have room to grow? >> yes. in other words, no, they have not reached their full potential. and, yes, they have so much to grow. so the big question of course is what is going to happen with latino and latina voters in florida. and i won't make predictions because i was one of those who

said that puerto ricans will shift the whole state. and you just don't know. if you left your island because you are in trauma, you lost everything, the president is throwing paper towels at you, coming and finding a job and a place to live is your primary concern. not necessarily registered to vote. so unless the democratic party is out there every single day like register, register, we want you, you know, i think they feel like so you will just wait for us to show up because you believe that that is -- so don't get me started on that. it is a thing that people -- when they see me, they are like oh, look, she didn't criticize the democrats. but we have to for the good of the country. >> we'll move to arizona here in a second, but joshua, one more question about florida. we've been talking about the purple in georgia and texas. talk about the degree to which florida has changed and the caldron in which this election is happening. >> has changflorida has changed

over the years. republicans have held it since i was like a senior in high school pretty much. and in florida you have all of these different pockets of the state that are very deep blue, deep south florida, a very parts of central florida. tampa, orlando. florida is a fascinating state where turnout reflects a lot of things. it reflects the population that is there, it reflects democrats' ability to get voters to show up. andrew gillum talked about how he is scam paintiis campaigning county because he can't take any votes for granted. but florida is one of these states that just makes no sense. it could go -- >> like the whole country. >> this is why florida is so fascinating. because depending on which county in florida has a certain issue that captivates people's attention. people in tallahassee are talking about the shooting at a yoga parlor where this guy was

spewing hateful rhetoric. people in south florida are still talking about what happened in parkland. different floridians care about different things. and depending on enough people caring about enough things and showing up on election day or beforehand, that is what drives the election. >> so we'll get to arizona. jeff fwllake's seat is up for grabs. and we know that arizona will have a woman representing it in the u.s. senate for the first time in the state's history. kristen sinema has a slight advantage over mcsally. and the arizona green party candidate dropped out. vaughn hillyard is in tempe where the mood has to be good. the sun devils getting the oute. so get us up to speed on this sunday morning. >> reporter: yeah, we were at the arizona state football game yesterday talking with a lot of independents, but also republicans. and that is a question that we have to look at in this race.

voter registration-wise, there is 1.3 billion republicans in this state. 1.1 million democrats. but also 1.2 million independents. and it is a matter of where do these independents go and also republicans. and i want to play you a bit of sound with a couple of those individuals that we spoke to yesterday and their take on martha mcsally's decision to stand solidly behind president trump. this is what they told us. >> who did you vote for? >> sinema. >> are you republican? >> yes, but i'm changing to the democratic party. i believe in their platform. >> you consider yourself republican. independent now. there is a lot of other people in arizona, how did that happen, why is that the case. >> >> well, the republicans have lost their way. the republican party is a joke as far as i'm concerned. >> reporter: cinesinema the demt is essentially trying to take

that political and a half where i can mantle from john mccain. and it is mcsally who has stood with the president and mike pence and don jr. and what you heard from those individuals yesterday was the frustration that she has not-or that is he has lacked independents from the president. one particular vote was that 2017 health care vote that would have essentially weakened protections for those with pre-existing conditions. and she even on the trail herself touts her 97% voting record with president trump. it is the democrat here in the state of barry goldwater and john mccain who is trying to made inroads and tuesday night will be quite telling as to the future of politics here in arizona. >> and christina, i want to ask you about the role of parties in this election going back to that tape we just heard, that woman who was a republican saying she believes in the platform now of the democrats. the gentleman saying that republicans have lost their way. you've watched as republicans have become the party of trump.

and in these last few weeks, he has been governing what the policies of that party are. >> and when we think of health care, it is very difficult to take something away from americans. right? we have bureaucratic government that keeps expanding. the polling will say they hate obamacare, but i need health care and i have it. and it has helped me and it has helped my family. and so every on the past few years, many republicans have gotten little pieces of obamacare, whether they know it or not, and now they realize when trump and sort of various republicans done the ticket say they want to take something away, they realize, no, no, this has been very beneficial to me. that ois one. and two, many republicans just do not want to get on the bandwagon of looking at women and children and saying they don't belong here. many people are second and third

engine race americans from ireland, italy, germany. very few are sort of 15th generation like myself. so i think it is very hard for a lot of families to buy into this fear tactic that the president is spouting. >> but also in arizona. >> especially in arizona. and i think the last thing is we also have to pay attention to third parties. in this country, yes, obviously we're dominated by democrat and republican parties. george washington warned us of this. but we are seeing in george and it was the case in arizona where a third party candidate could make all the difference. so especially in georgia we're thinking many people think there might be a runoff because of a party that nobody is really thinking about but that is also a place for a lot of republicans who are frustrated with their own party, but they can't necessarily make that jump just yet to the democrats. >> and i'm looking at arizona and i'm just wondering, this is one of my questions, what will

happen with voters. we cannot forget that arizona is the home sb 1070, the most stringent law after governor pete wilson in california. so this has created a whole generation of young people who can vote. they are the children of immigrants who because they have the -- they can still have birthright citizenship in this country, that they are not able to vote. and that kind of activism i think that this is one of the states where i don't think that we talk enough about latino and latina voters and how they are switching the politic on the ground in a assisrizona. >> and we'll be coming back here in a hospital. joy reid will be hosting special election from florida today as democrats pour in everything that they can to upper in the state's first african-american governor in that state. an up next, what women want.

how two years of the resistance as culminated to this moment. ♪ today is a good day to make a plan for your financial goals and your everyday ones too. pnc can help. we'll be with you every step of the way. let's start today.

we'll be with you every step of the way. take your razor, yup. up and down, never side to side, shaquem, you got it? come on stay focused. hard work baby, it gonna pay off.

...to give you the protein you need with less of the sugar you don't. [grunting noise] i'll take that. 30 grams of protein and 1 gram of sugar. ensure max protein. in two great flavors. "look what she's accomplished... she authored the ban on assault weapons... pushed the desert protection act through congress, and steered billions of federal dollars to california projects

such as subway construction and wildfire restoration." "she... played an important role in fighting off ...trump's efforts to kill the affordable care act." california news papers endorse dianne feinstein for us senate. california values senator dianne feinstein

show me what democracy looks like. >> united will never be defeated. >> welcome back. we is y we saw protests in hundreds of cities around the globe fueled by donald trump's comments and then there was the cultural reckoning that followed a few months later. >> the "new york times" reporting allegations by numerous women who say that the hollywood know ghul smogul sexu harassed them. >> rose is fired. >> and kevin spacey the latest high profile star caught up in allegations. >> another powerful man has been brought down by accusations he sexually abused women. >> and this year women are running for office in record numbers, 260 are running for congress this cycle. maria, your reaction to this.

the degree to which things have changed, this is a marquee way in which they have. >> yeah, and i was looking at that and thinking about, you know, something that happened to me, my own experience after reading john hockenberry who was and an anchor where he said he was just a misunderstood romantic. and that basically set off a sense of rage. and soon after that, there was the whole judge kavanaugh situation. there was a lot of trauma. i was traveling across the country talking about my own experience, but also a lot of women. so i think very quickly in terms of the media, we kind of moved on after kavanaugh was confirmed. it was like okay, we're done. and a lot of women had been -- are still kind of processing that and when you put that processing of their most intimate experiences around sexual assault and violence and you put together with the images

of the protests which happened right after he took office, that is a long period of time there. and that is why when i talk about women's rage, we don't know what it will look like. we don't know what it will look like, but i think that it is still phenomenally raw. and in a lot of ways the country -- and again we've all kind of wanted to move on. a lot of women are still stuck with processing what happened around the supreme court nomination and confirmation. and what that says about our country. >> how well equipped was the democrat party for this? i remember talking to a number of women who hadn't run for office, this was a new thing and they were looking at the party for help. to what degree has the party caught up with what we're seeing here? >> first of all, i think you are right, i think that the sub headline in this mid term election will be this was the year of the fired up woman. where the dccc didn't really have to recruit women, they were

self-recruiting saying i'm going to run and you can either help me or not help me, but i'm going to run and i'm going to win. so most of the energy in this midterm has been propelled specifically by those fired up women. and i just can't wait for them to win and come to the house of representatives and help create a transformational moment in the united states congress on these vital issues. >> and what do you think about this being a twrns formatiinfo moment? how do we ensure that this continues? >> we really have to make sure that the pipeline is clear. because we're looking at congress. but where the real action is the statehouses. and that is where we have really bad behavior that oftentimes goes unreported, especially in albany is a cesspool of degenerates at times. >> always has been. >> but the problem is the pipeline is women start off in the statehouse and then make to congress for the most part.

i'm thinking about shirley chisolm. we're already in these historic moments and milestones, but i think that we need to pay a lot more attention to state legislature. these people are in charge of a lot of money and real issues that affect us on a daily life level. >> and we were talking in the ma makeup room where everything goes down about the established democratic party and how much they really want these rvoices f women -- >> who challenge the status quo. >> and what is your sense now two days before the election? you look at the polling that we have up here, here is how women are intending to vote. your sense of how the party has responded. >> i think that they are like the rest of established

organizations in our country that are predominantly white male heavy. that there is an understanding that there has to be change, but there is not going to be like hey, sure, i'm going to give up my seat like joe crowley and cortocasio-cortez ocasio-cortez's district where she iscrowley is still on the ballot. cortocasio-cortez is a threat t many. and if the dccc was all in with cortez, why are they letting -- >> the dccc has to be strategic. one quick thing, this is also the year of the military woman. you have candidates like mj hedger in texas, these are combat veterans who are women. that is a really important distinction in this cycle. >> let's come back in a moment. coming up, how 11th hour campaign ads could backfire in the end. what it says about the state of

the midterms race. ♪ oh, look... another anti-wrinkle cream in no hurry to make anything happen. neutrogena® rapid wrinkle repair® works in just one week. with the fastest retinol formula available. it's clinically proven to work on fine lines and wrinkles. one week? that definitely works! rapid wrinkle repair®. and for dark spots, rapid tone repair. neutrogena®. see what's possible. we really pride ourselvesglass, on making it easy to get your windshield fixed. with safelite, you can see exactly when we'll be there. saving you time for what you love most. >> kids: whoa! >> kids vo: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace ♪

♪ ♪ jimmy's gotten used to his whole room smelling like sweaty odors. yup, he's gone noseblind. he thinks it smells fine, but his mom smells this... luckily for all your hard-to-wash fabrics... ...there's febreze fabric refresher. febreze doesn't just mask, it eliminates odors you've... ...gone noseblind to. and try febreze unstopables for fabric. with up to twice the fresh scent power, you'll want to try it... ...again and again and maybe just one more time.

indulge in irresistible freshness. febreze unstopables. breathe happy. that was part of an ad president trump's re-election

cam baby releaspaign released t. fear has become a if not the motivatie factor for them. and it is nothing new president obama pointed out at a rally on friday. >> they do this every election cycle. try to terrify folks and then the election comes and problem suddenly magically vanishes. you never hear about it again. in 2010, they said that bill and i, we were setting up death panels to kill your grandmother. >> and let's dig into this. maria, your reaction to that ad. yes, this happens. this bubbles up cycle after cycle, but there is a particular darkness to the ad, the message republicans are putting out there. and to me part of a really viking contrast. president trump's campaign put out two ads last week, one focusing on the economy, a mother deciding on whom she will vote and at the end you see it is on the economy and her daughter becomes a concert

violinist rosy picture of success. and then that ad we saw there. >> i've actually had to turn away from looking at these things because these images are really -- well, one, they are put in a context where they really are lies the way that the president has been talking about this. again, it brings me no joy to say that this president has been lying every day about immigration policy and much of the media is repeating those lies so people begin to think that they are true. so it is very disheartening. i'm hoping that part of what happens in the midmidterms, i'm hoping that what we see is absolutely a rejection to that, to that entire rhetoric. but i worry. i worry that people who -- again, much of the trump support came from counties and districts where they have the least amount of diversity. so then what people are seeing

is they are seeing those images. and even though it is not around them in real life, they are completely buying into those images and the long term. and then just to finish that, the places where they could be -- where it is happening in real life, they have to base their votes on what they are seeing in real life which is that people are actually getting together, latino gang members are for the overrunning high school, they are collaborating, they are part of -- >> anddystopian. >> exactly. >> and i'm wondering whether we can tell with regards to polling and sploervoter mentality, whet can tell if these ads were effective. if you hate ads but like the tax cuts and you vote republican anyway, what difference does it make. maybe president trump would view that as a win. we maintained control of konl

congress, good for me. and this is his m.o., but he won with this. so i'm not sure what this means for the party going forward and especially because as we were discussing before the show, a lot of gop candidates are having this challenge of trying to decide how close to the president do i want to get. yes, i align with him on these policy why do you have to keep fighting with the media. you can't pull it apart as the president, you are the head of the party. how do we know if the message is going to be clearly sent to the president. we didn't like this rhetoric. especially if republicans keep the house or senate. >> and half of the good conversations are in the makeup room. >> yeah. and i think republicans are having this as my grandmother would say the come to jesus moment. at a certain point in time you will not be able to pick and choose and right now they are like but i like the financial stuff and not necessarily the racial stuff. there will be a point and maybe

it is 2020, maybe we'll see it after 2018. i think the genius of this particular administration is that in the fear base tactics, they are all related. because it is not just about these latinos at the border, you know. you have people in minnesota thinking that their summer homes will get broken into. but it is also tied into women are afraid. and this goes back to because they will come and they will -- there will be sexual predators, which is also back to sort of kavanaugh at the same time because you can't accuse good men of bad things because then that could be your son or -- i mean all of it is based in fear. that is the ingredient of all things trump right now. >> and john weaver is back with us. i'll give you the last word here. president obama was talking about history. how different is what we are see something. >> somebody alluded to this earlier about the republican party facing their california

moment. and we'll see that in the suburbs because politics is a free market. voters will force republicans to have to choose. and so the republicans in areas without any hispanics or immigrants are going to tend to go toward more trumpian policies and those in the suburbs will choose a different path. >> all right. when we come back, we'll try a lightning round and see how that goes. what my panel is watching for on tuesday. up straight ahead here on msnbc. take off to the big city. find fortune... romance... ...find freedom, just one touch away. ♪ because the sky has no limit.

let's go back to that new polling this hour showing the democrats remain favored to win the house, holding a seven-point advantage. but that is not a given. there are probably a few more big sur prizc surprises ahead f tuesd

tuesday. >> i am staying. >> his news director is my former editor on npr. how about the senate? let's talk about the senate. do you think it will get democratic control? >> i don't think so. >> not a hand raising question here. go ahead, maria. >> we could be surprised. i'm just saying i don't think so. >> let's talk about texas. you have been looking at that. looking at beto to can you recollect versus ted cruz. >> my head says no. hi heart says he could as a republican. look out for tennessee. look out for texas. one of those may surprise you. >> let's go to florida. i will go to you because you're from there. what governing that outcome, do you think on tuesday? >> the heat is issues of race and culture, which i think because of big issues that florida has probably should not be where the square focus is. the candidates don't have to

focus on policy right now. i think it will be whoever mobilizes the heat in their race and gets them to show up the poll, to stay in line after the polling place closes. remember, if you are in line when the polls close, you are entitled to vote. >> meant to talk about iowa and steve king in the last block. your sense of how he's going to do? >> right. well, i mean, unfortunately i think some voters are just immune to racism and racist practices. he might be able to hold on. i can't call that one. but not forever, considering that steve king's district is predominantly latino and latina, even though they are not the vote. >> but they will be. >> we're focussed on congress, but don't forget the governor's races because in 2020 the census comes up and then redirecting. >> 36 of them in play. big thanks to my panel this

morning. coming up, joy reed live from fort lauderdale, florida, as the battle in the sunshine state continues to heat up. okay. [ buttons clicking ] [ camera shutter clicks ] so, now that you have a house, you can use homequote explorer. quiet. i'm blasting my quads. janice, look. i'm in a meeting. -janice, look. -[ chuckles ] -look, look. -i'm looking. it's easy. you just answer some simple questions online, and you get coverage options to choose from. you're ruining my workout. cycling is my passion.

you're ruining my workout. the sun goes down. you run those miles, squeeze the toothpaste from the bottom and floss to set a good example. you fine tune the proposal, change the water jug so no one else has to, get home for dinner and feed the cat. you did a million things for your family today but speaking to pnc to help handle all your investments was a very important million and one.

pnc. make today the day. unstopand it's strengthenedting place, the by xfi pods,gateway. which plug in to extend the wifi even farther, past anything that stands in its way. ...well almost anything. leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today. that does it for me. thank you very much for watching. stick around. amt joy with joy reed starts right now with joy reed live from florida.

the folks that won the last election are so mad all the time? you know, i don't know why. it tells you something interesting. that even the folks who are in charge are still mad. because they're getting ginned up to be mad. >> good morning! and welcome to a.m. joy, live from fort lauderdale. yes, in battleground -- do you hear that crowd? it is the final sprint to the midterm elections. as you can see, people behind me are heading into this very building to vote. today is the final day of early voting in florida, aka soul to the poles sunday. more than four million