on of all things a sunday night at 9:00 eastern time, good evening from our election headquarters on this sunday evening live from 30 rockefeller plaza here in new york, renamed as luck would have it democracy plaza for these few days. in less than 48 hours as the

polls close the big number we'll be watching, the big story line of tuesday night is 23. good evening to you all. here looming over all of it, of course, is the trump era and donald trump who is not on the ballot but has told his rally audiences in a way it's as if he is. this afternoon he was back at it, a rally in makin', georgia, which also happens to boo where we have some breaking news tonight, one of the most hotly contested races in the nation, the race for governor of georgia where democrat stacey abrams is ina dead heat with republican brian kemp. kemp today accused georgia democrats of an attempted cyber attack on the state's voter registration system. democrats say it's nonsense. kemp's office is trying to cover up his own mismanagement, they say of the state's voting system.

we will have expert help this hour to sort out the competing claims. many of the most high-profile races in the country may come down to a battle of inches. that -- sorry, starting off with a bang there. that's why i'm not allowed to have a pencil on set any more, new rule that georgia governor's race has been a raging wildfire of an electoral fight. that reflects not just the character of the contest, but also its closeness, the final polling in the georgia governor's race, has it tied or within a couple of points there are a other governors' races where the final polling is tied or within a couple of points. that's true in florida and also true in iowa of all places. and the wisconsin governor's race, a poll last week didn't just have the candidates statistically tied. the poll found the exact same number of human beings pledging support for each candidate in a late-week poll. a literal 100% tie. in the marquee senate race in the great state of missouri one of the democratic incumbents

whose seat democrats most want to take is claire mccaskill. she and josh halley are tied. the plast polling on the huge senate races both in florida and arizona, those key races all essentially tied or within a couple of points. when this many important races in this many parts of the country are this close, that might help explain why turnout numbers are so far through the roof. it also means that anybody telling you they know what's going to happen on tuesday night is probably taking you for a ride. in a lot of the most important races in the country, we really, truly do not know. >> joining us tonight here in the studio, you know them in short as our on-air family, the host of "deadline white house" former white house communications director under george w. bush nicole wallace, host of "hardball," chris matthews, and pulitzer prize-winning columnist from the "washington post," eugene robinson. and the man you just saw there, steve kornacki at the big board tonight. steven --

>> here you guys are, sorry. i had to find you. it's so hard to see you over there. >> the fault is not yours. >> we know that you dropped in there unexpectedly. there's a new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll, the last national poll before tuesday, there's no national races of course in a congressional mid term race like this does a big national poll help us understand what's going to happen heading into tuesday night? >> it can help us, one of the questions we were asking is would there be a big late break one way or the other? let's take you through the headline numbers, the generic ballot, the basic question which party do you want to be in control? it's seven. democrats ahead by seven. that is number we've been saying all year look, because of gerrymandering, democrats just can't win the popular vote for the house. they probably got to win it with a pad. seven points is about the number they've been talking about.

that's a positive indicator for democrats. this, though, a wrinkle, in trump's approval rating in our poll, clocking in at 46%, as good as it's been for donald trump since he's been president. historically it's not a great number for president, for trump it's the high-water mark for him in his presidency. there's the issue of enthusiasm. earlier in this year our poll was finding a double-digit gap between the two parties, ask democrats now are they excited about these mid-terms, 73%, yes. republicans 72%. you see less enthusiasm outside the partisans there. with independents how they break looms large. we have them giving advantage right now to democrats, but a lot who seem undecided perhaps movable in these last final days. and a gigantic gender gap. we've seen this for a long time. could be bigger than ever. among men, republicans up seven, women in 18-point margin. there's so many races out there. here's the bottom line for the house, look at two tiers right here we know democrats are on offense. my question, are there gains primarily about places like this. suburbs of philadelphia, what you see here, look at these, they are republican districts that were won by hillary

clinton. they already don't like trump. do they start rejecting republicans? is that the story of the night? there's 25 of these districts around it country. here's one outside chicago, you could go denver, kansas city, to southern california. or are we talking about something more expansive for democrats here? is it going to bleed into trump country? are they going to start winning in districts trump won by five points, by ten points birks more? are we going to be talking about the suburbs being on fire and delivering the house potentially to democrats maybe by a few seats? are we going to be talking about something much bigger than that, a 40-seat gain for democrats or more. i think the range of possibilities probably looks something like this. republicans barely hang on to the house, by about four seats on one end, all the way to the other end, democrats by 50. i think the difference between those two outcomes, those two polls, is only a couple of points. they are so close out there. you swing in a few points one way, you get to this end of the spectrum, you swing in a few

points the other way, you're talking about a democratic tsunami. >> what i am swamped by there, in terms of speaking of tsunami, i am super surprised to see two numbers there that i almost can't believe exist. 18-point gender gap in favor of the democrats. democrats always have a gender gap. 18 points is massive. and alongside that, an enthusiasm gap that's disappeared. one-point enthusiasm gap in favor of the democrats. to see those two numbers alongside each other, i feel those can't possibly be telling the story of the same election. >> the other thing that's fascinating about that is we've had past mid-terms where there's been high enthusiasm. in 2010, republican enthusiasm was at about the 70% mark. in 2006 when democrats won back the house, democratic enthusiasm was at about the 70% mark. to have them both over 70%, when

you put those early voting numbers up on the screen and say we're smashing records, when you think back to the special elections we've had the last two years. pennsylvania earlier this year. georgia last year. a few others, remember what you saw with turn-out right there. the idea that we're going to shatter all records here for mid-term turnout, for mid-term participation, when you see enthusiasm numbers like this among both parties, that's something we haven't seen. where they're both that excited at that level. >> okay, nicole wallace, start us off. where do you think we are on a sunday night? >> i've known and loved pollsters, but when they start going through the numbers it's like the grown-up voice on "charlie brown" you just hear wah, wah. people vote because they both love and hate. voting in mid-terms is extra extra hard. people vote in mid-terms out of love and hate. and i think what the democrats -- i think we saw the numbers. about half the country loves

donald trump -- i don't buy that. it's about 40%, more hate him. i think what the democrats have going for them in big states is they have someone to love as much as they hate trump-ism, the race baiting, racism. and all the things they hated about trump have been matched by candidates they love. if you watch the local coverage, andrew gillum is exciting people as much as trump is turning them off. and so i think in some of the races that we talked about watching, there are voters on the democratic side that are as motivated by love for some of these candidates by hatred of trumpism. >> it's interesting, too, because that may be functioning differently in the two parties. one of the big things that's happening in the race is the president has decided to put himself absolutely centrally in the middle of every republican candidate's message so no republican is allowed to rise and be a star and be loved as much as any of these democratic challengers might be able to pull off in their races. >> he doesn't talk about them. he stands there and you can tell

he's looking for the note that's got the guy's name on them. he's not there for them. he's there because he's made this entire mid-term about him. >> chris matthews, the theory of love and hate must appeal to you somewhat. >> well, it does. our new numbers today, thanks to god we have great numbers. 68% of the american people are satisfied with the american economy. that's a huge number. only 38% say we're in the right direction. that is a 30-point differential. this is unusual it has something to do with the zeitgeist, the feeling of the country about itself. they don't like the feeling of the country right now. i think this is going to be a blowout against trump. i think democrats will pick up about 40 seats in the house. mainly around those areas that hillary should have won in the, and did do very well in. bucks county, delaware county. chester county into up into lehigh, allentown, out into lancaster, to erie. the areas i'm familiar with i think are going all democrat. i think we'll hear this early. i think it's the voice we would

have gotten unfilled, except for the complication with hillary at the end, with the james comey thing. there something to put a mute on that. i think we're going to get the results we would have gotten in '16. i believe that somebody has to pay for "access hollywood." i think this country doesn't like a president that talks like that. they don't like it. they haven't found a way to say it yet. they're going to say it this time. it sunk in, that is him. that wasn't a bad day for him. they figured out this is donald trump. and i think women and evolved men, that's what my son calls it, evolved men, evolved men, the first of the evolved men was alan alda, 40 years ago, the evolved men are going to vote against trump because he's the wrong man to be president. >> giving alan alda his due. >> not like a cro-magnon. just a couple of thoughts. number one just in terms of

basics if you look at kornacki's enthusiasm numbers, 72, 73, you never know if the early vote is cannibalizing the election day vote or what. but let's assume there's something real there. when more people vote, that's usually good for democrats. i mean it usually is. because it just is. that's the way it works out. that's why democrats do better in presidential years. you know, the flip side is democrats have to do something, on tuesday, that they're not accustomed to doing. which is voting in a mid-term election. they don't always do that. another thought, the last few days, president trump has been going around, the country, doing these rallies and trying to push especially republican senate candidates, just over the top. in indiana for example. going to missouri i guess for a final rally. you know, florida, he's trying to push them over. democrats have somebody

countering that, president obama and it's now there is a cognate to trump rallies. >> let's put some numbers on it let's go back to steve kornacki. on the issue of the senate race, gene is right, that the president has made himself not so much a campaigner for house candidates, but for senate candidates, for republican senate candidates in hess tight battles in indiana, arizona, missouri, tennessee, nevada. all these places. what are you seeing in terms of the senate prospects right now, steve? >> i think what the president can see there is the battleground for the senate is being waged primarily in trump states, in some cases some very trump states. look at it this way. the democrats need to post a net gain of two seats to get senate control. that sounds do-able. then you start looking at what the battleground looks like. we got 11 states right here. you can see the overwhelming majority of these are trump states. and not just trump states, you are talking in some cases take north dakota for example, heidi

heitkamp, democrat, trying to defend her seat in a state that trump carried by 36 points in 2016. if heidi height camp fails to do that, you see republicans they're two away right there. how about tennessee? it's a state trump won by 26 points in 2016. last time they sent a democrat to the u.s. senate, al gore in 1990. the democratic candidate, phil brettson, very popular personally. but marsha black burn. there's a strong preference in the polls for having a republican in washington. you can think about texas. a state that trump won by nine points, not a great showing for a republican. but those three with nothing else, if all of these others went to the democratic column and those three go republican, that's enough to keep the senate republican. what democrats need to do wick your favorite north dakota, texas, which one of these can you shake loose? is there going to be a surge

turnout in texas, could you do something with bredeson in tennessee? we say it's a tough path for republicans to hang onto the house. it's an equally tough path for democrats on the senate side. >> it makes you see why because the president wants to define a win here, as his own participation as contributing to a win, why he's sticking to senate races in terms of the way he's been doing this campaigning. whether or not you've been paying close attention to the news again, you may still have heard about this strange claim out of georgia. where the republican running for governor also in charge of running the election as georgia's secretary of state, today he said democrats tried to hack into the voter registration system in his state. the facts of this story turn out to be approximately opposite of what you have probably seen in the early headlines about this today. we've got expert help to sort that out coming up next. stay with us. liberty mutual accident forgiveness means

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we're back and now to the business of this hour, what passes for the breaking news this sunday night. all eyes on that neck-and-neck race for governor in georgia, where democrat stacy abrams is hitting back at her opponent, brian kemp, who is accusing georgia democrats, without evidence we should quickly add,

of hacking state voter registration files. abrams, this morning calling the move, an act of desperation. >> he's desperate to turn the conversation away from his failures, from his refusal to honor his commitments and from the fact he's part of a nationwide system of voter suppression that will not work in this election. because we're going to outwork him. we're going to outvote him and we're going to win. >> kemp, remember, happens to be georgia's secretary of state. he announced an investigation into the questionable allegations in a statement this morning and we quote, we open an investigation into the democratic party of georgia after receiving information from our legal team about failed efforts to breach the online voter registration system and my voter page. we are working with our private sector vendors and investigators to review data logs. we have contacted our federal partners and formally requested

the federal bureau of investigation to investigate these possible cyber crimes. the secretary of state's office will release more information as it becomes available. >> joining us now is alex stamos, former head of security for facebook, now an msnbc cybersecurity analyst. alex, thanks very much for being with us, it's good to have you here. >> thanks, rachel. >> this was an explosive claim today. but we've been looking into it this afternoon and into this evening. from a distance it seems like what may have happened here is that kemp's office got notified that there were problems, there were evident problems in terms of the security of the georgia voting system that he oversees. he responded to that notification essentially by claiming that the democrats must have been trying to hack into the system if they found all of those vulnerabilities. that's what we're sort of discerning from a distance. can you help us understand what actually happened here? >> that's right. there's a history here in georgia of independent third

parties reporting possible vulnerabilities to the secretary of state's office. in this case within hours of getting notification of a new vulnerability on their website, they came out with this press release, possibly blaming the democratic party. you know it's part of a tradition here of not taking these vulnerabilities seriously, and in this case, making a really reckless claim before that could possibly be any data to back it up. >> you said there's a history of third party groups notifying georgia about problems in their system. does georgia actually have worse problems than other states do in terms of their security? i know there have not only been notifications, there have been lawsuits by good government groups, do they have a problem in that state? >> i think they have a number of georgia is only one of five states in the united states that does not have a paper back-up to their voting. this means if there's a direct attack against the voting infrastructure, we will not be able to recreate what happened in that state with any certainty. that's unacceptable with the

level of risk our elections are facing these days. the second is there's been a history over the last two years of a number of groups coming to georgia and saying we've found vulnerabilities in your system, and the way responsible organizations deal with this in 2018, is they say thank you for turning that over. we'll investigate it and they work to fix the flaw. instead, the secretary of state has continuously threatened those researchers, in this case, specifically pointing the finger to political opponents without having any evidence to back it up. >> alex stamos, the former head of security for facebook, helpful to have you with us now, thank you very much for helping us to understand this. >> let's check in on reports on the ground in this race in georgia. katie turr is on the ground in atlanta. joy reid spent the weekend following stacy abrams' campaign before traveling on to florida. she's with us from ft. lauderdale. katie, let's begin with you. what kind of crowd, what kind of event did you encounter in

macon, georgia? >> the exact kind of event and crowd that i encountered in 2016. there were 12,000 people that showed up for donald trump and brian kemp today in macon, georgia. and the rally, although it was meant to rally up support for brian kemp and although brian kemp did speak, the rally was more of a donald trump rally. he went through a lot of his old hits and hit some new ones as well. he did focus a little bit on stacy abrams. he said that she was radical, she was extreme. she was going to turn georgia into one big giant sanctuary city, that it would become venezuela. he was trying to gin up the base by scaring them what the state would look like if a democrat came into power. he called stacy abrams one of the most radical politicians that is out there. brian, i'll tell you i was at the obama rally on friday with stacey abrams and the tones were markedly different.

democrats were talking a lot about health care. they were talking about how you got to go out there and vote. you got to honor your legacy and vote. john lewis took the stage and talked about how he spilled blood on a bridge in selma, how he's not asking voters to go out and spill blood. how he's just asking them to go out and vote because their ancestors fought for them to do so. quite different crowds, too. certainly different messages. >> joy reid, there's no excuse, no substitute for being down there and living it and sampling it and feeling it, and being in it. what have you noticed and noted since you've been down there? >> brian, i was in macon, georgia, yesterday, the same place that katie is now. we've been tracking each other across the american south. my experience in macon, following the stacey abrams' campaign was exactly as katie said, it was exactly the opposite. the tone and message being delivered by stacy abrams, who by the way has a female running

meat, so there are two women running to be governor and lieutenant governor of this state. one black, one white. her message was hopeful. she was taking selfies with the crowd. there was a sense of almost familial relationships with the people who are voting for her. they adore her. she absolutely has a charisma that maybe she learned from her parents, who were both methodist ministers, she had the crowd enraptured, a very diverse crowd, mostly african-american i will say, but not all african-american. what i have noticed in following her from macon, to atlanta is that she has captured something kind of intangible. in georgians that i spoke with. and her message that has been very simple -- health care and education. that has resonated. every single person i spoke with, black, white, old, young, who is enamored of her, was enamored of her for those two reasons she will expand medicaid

and improve education in georgia. that's what they care about. >> joy, i would like -- both you and katie on this. in terms of being in georgia and seeing the campaigns on the ground. not just in terms of what they're saying at the rallies, what were you able to see in terms of get out the vote? obviously it's got a different cast in georgia than this does in a lot of other high-profile races because there's been so much concern about potential voter suppression and brian kemp's dual-hatted role. the administration voting as the secretary of state and also being at the top of the ticket. joy and katie what you're seeing about the mobilization of get out the vote efforts. >> i love to go to a diner, i feel like you get the real opinion of folks. i spoke to the manager of a diner in macon who said listen, black folks are energized, people are getting out to vote. people are taking advantage of the right to vote. but white voters are, too, and this particular person said to me, georgians down here love their guns and there are a lot of people who are uncomfortable with an african-american governor and they're getting out to vote, too.

what you have are very motivated people on both signed of the equation and the question is which group is the most motivated. >> katie, where do you stand? >> that's absolutely the question. i can tell you most of the lines of early voting have been long. we keep hearing from voters who say that they waited in a long line. younger people, more than i've seen in other states, seem to be enthusiastic about this vote. they talk about how they can't complain about politics, if they don't participate in politics. a lot of them that i've spoken with have been stacy abrams fans. they're looking for somebody who can bridge the divide. there's a lot of concern about political partisanship out there. but again, it really depends on who you're talking to. brian kemp had a bus tour that went to all the counties in this state. he just wrapped it up yesterday. in gwinnett county and he got a big crowd out there as well so

they're both focused on get out-the-vote efforts. with the allegations of voter suppression hanging over this state, if this is not a clear-cut winner, i can imagine there being a lot of controversy and a lot of questions about the outcome of this race come tuesday night or potentially wednesday morning or december 4th even if it goes to a run-off. >> the prospect of a run-off in g would have -- would make georgia's governorship even more of a focus of national concern and interest as it is now. asking you guys, look at that georgia governor's race, do you think it's possible either one of them is going to hit 50% or do you think we're definitely going to end up in a runoff there? >> listen, this is great time to test the runoff model. she's running as an unpallgetic proud liberal woman, and she is neck and neck with a conservative opponent who if anyone's going to borrow trump's sort of claim that an election was rigged it's the democrat of this race. the republican running against her is running the election. it's outrageous. and you sort of miss normalcy.

if these were normal times you might be able to pick up the phone and call the white house no matter who was in it and say can you guys take a look at what's going on? you realize there are sort of new referees sort of in politics. >> one demographic i'm looking at in that race is african-american women. next door in alabama they in the special election, 98% of the vote, they voted above their weight in the population. they're about 14% of the population and 17% of the electorate on the special election day. they do that again in georgia, she can surpass 50. >> you know, its interesting. we've had big early vote numbers in the united states. georgia has really big early vote numbers, but we were able to get the gender split from a bunch of states that have had early vote numbers. georgia has a larger split in gender in terms of who turned

out to early vote than any other state we've monitored in the country. the gap is like 12 points women who outvoted men in georgia. >> our thanks to katie turr and joy reid for our report from the ground. all these close house and senate races adup to incredibly high stakes for this president. when we come back we'll look at the consequences for this white house for this election. please stay with us. ♪ it is such a good time to kiss ♪ ♪ it is such a good time to dance ♪ ♪ it is such a good time to [ laughing ] ♪ scoobidoo doobidoo ♪ scoobidoo doobidoo [ goose honking ] ♪ [ laughing ] a bad day on the road still beats a good one off it.

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ask your doctor if eliquis is what's next for you. if democrats win the majority in the house on tuesday one concrete practical consequence of that come january is that the democrats will take control of all the house committees. and i know that sounds boring but it's really important in

term of what happens next in the trump presidency. even though a party has only one house of congress that can still have a really big impact because once they're controlling that house of congress, they get to conduct oversight of the administration. they have subpoena power to help them do that. republicans appear to be super worried about that prospect in the context of this being the administration in power right now in the white house. republicans recently circulated a spreadsheet amongst themselves cataloging all the investigations they think democrats might pursue if the democrats take the house. the list had over 100 items on it. if democrats do flip the house every committee will have a new chair, a democratic chair who will quickly become a household name. the ways and means committee, for example, they're in charge of taxes. well, if that committee is chaired by a democrat next year, likely richie neil of massachusetts, that's the committee that could demand tax returns. and maxine waters, she's already

made multiple requests for information to deutsche bank, about that bank's large loans to trump. if democrats win and she becomes chair next year, those requests could become subpoenas. the judiciary committee would be led by new york's jerry nadler. and now they would likely take steps to protect robert mueller and the special counsel investigation. he could also subpoena trump's business records to investigate whether the president has illegally taken money from foreign governments. over the last two years comings and the other democrats on that committee requested 64 subpoenas on that committee. all 64 of their requests were denied by the republican majority. trump's cabinet secretaries revoking security clearances, using private e-mail for white house business, the president gutting plans for a new fbi building potentially to benefit

his own hotel. all these scandals that made headlines this year but sparked no official investigation in the republican controlled house. that would change if democrats win the house on tuesday night. but if democrats do win on tuesday night, trump's single biggest worry would probably be this man. congressman adam schiff who would be expected to take over the intelligence committee, which is a position of serious authority. that congressman who could soon be chairman, adam schiff, joins us next. fact is, every insurance company hopes you drive safely. but allstate helps you. with drivewise.

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as we've been saying if democrats emerge with control of the house they will inherit new and unilateral power to demand documents or testimony in a wide range of investigations. congressman adam schiff of california to name one as rachel was saying, would suddenly have new tools for investigating the white house from his perch as the new chair, the incoming chair of house intelligence. the question becomes how would democrats like adam schiff wield that new power? joining us from los angeles tonight is the top democrat on that committee, california democratic congressman adam schiff. just as a predicate before i allow my colleagues to jump in and join the questioning, i need to a prediction on how you feel because you have a stake in this, your party and the house of representatives is going to do on tuesday night.

>> you know, i feel very optimistic, and i feel pretty confident about tuesday. of course, that's not unlike how we felt two years ago so we're all a bit superstitions about this. but the candidates are doing so well. the quality of these candidates is like nothing i've ever seen. it's the larjest most well qualified group of candidates who have ever run for house, at least in the post watergate period, and they're doing very well. it looks like the late breaking results are breaking our way, and that tends to be the trend in an election. they don't split down the middle. they usually break one way, and they certainly look they're going to break in our favor. >> congressman schiff, it's nicole wallace. devin nunes essentially functions objectively speaking as a tool of the trump white house, in terms of doing their bidding with the fbi, the justice department and the russia investigation. where do you start if you become

the chairman of that committee? what is your first, second and third to-do item? >> we're going to have to prioritize. we're going to have to decide, okay, what are the most important issues to look at first. and, you know, certainly there is a consolation of issues around the russia investigation whereas you say our chairman was acting as essentially a trump lawyer on the intelligence committee that was doing the investigation. not only preventing us from bringing in witnesses that had relevant testimony and acquiring important documents but affirmatively going after the investigators, going after the justice department, the fbi and doing what he could through his perch, which was not insignificant to interfere and obstruct the investigation that bob mueller was doing. obviously, we're going to protect the mueller investigation. more than that we would like to provide the transcripts of the witness interviews to the special counsel. there are several witnesses.

we have concerns about potential perjury. others have evidence -- >> could you tell us who they are? who would you bring back that you've already had? >> one that has certainly come to light recently in terms of some of the public disclosures, but if these e-mails that had been published from roger stone were accurate, those are documents that certainly would have been called for him to produce to our committee. there are other issues that have come up just within his testimony. but he's not alone where we have substantial questions about the truthfulness. but probably no one is in a better position to evaluate that better than bob mueller. they refused to provide us with the materials. it appears to try to protect witnesses that may have lied to our committee as long as they were lying to protect the president. and of course that's not how you conduct an investigation. that's how conduct a sham of an investigation. >> congressman it's chris

matthews, can you get a subpoena? >> i think if we could if it was relevant to issues, for example, we wanted to look at and made efforts to look at the issue of whether the russians were laundering money for the trump ocean. but honestly in terms of the tax returns probably the committee that has the most jurisdiction there is the ways and means committee, and i think richard neil has said if he becomes the chairman -- >> do you have any idea whether the democratic caucus as a caucus would like to get trump's tax returns, as a group? would you all like to get it? >> listen, i think any candidate for president should release their tax returns. one way of enforcing that form, and frankly, we never thought this was a norm that would be broken and has by this president -- one way is to enforce the statute power of congress and get the tax return of a presidential candidate who refuses to disclose it. this is particularly important

where there are credible allegations that a president of the united states may have financial conflict of interest. driven by russian money in the trump organization, is our policy visa vi saudi arabia and being driven by business interests with respect to the trump organization, the american people deserve answers to these questions. we deserve to know, indeed need to know whether the president is making decisions in our interest or in his family's financial interest. >> congressman adam schiff of california on top to be the chairman of the intelligence committee if the democrats win the house on tuesday. congressman, thank you very much for your time tonight. appreciate having you here, sir. >> thank you. if you are planning your election night watch party for tuesday night there are a few things that you should know about the timing of how things are going to go, when it's going to be exciting and when the big hits are going to come about how the night's going to turn out overall. what we have next for you here tonight is not exactly a cheat

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we are here to help. on tuesday night let's just get real here, when do you actually have to start watching? like when will the first things happen that you actually care about, that actually matter? let's get specific. on the senate side the polls closed 6:00 p.m. tuesday. i'm so excited i'm already speeding things up here. so indiana on tuesday night at 6:00 p.m. most of the state

closes. there's going to be a lot of early voting it looks like in india. joe donnelly, democrat trying to hold on, we're going to get a read out from indiana 6:00 p.m. eastern. on the house side, democrats need to pick up 23 seats, what you see right here we call thus the big 66. we've got 66 republican held districts right here where democrats have their best shot at getting pick ups. and the first one that's on the map comes on at 6:00, kentucky's sixth district. amy mcgrath, former fighter pilot. this is fascinating test here. this is lexington, kentucky and the surroundings. lexington, kentucky, and in the rural area outside of it the fascinating thing to watch for here about 40% of the population in the lexington county, fayette county there's going to be surged democratic turnout here. are the democrats able to make

inroads at all in those rural trump areas? so that's something we're going to see at 6:00. then at 7:00 that's when things are going to start to intensify. you are going to have in the 7:00 hour four key zrigts distr virginia, the seventh the richmond suburbs, and the tenth district right outside washington. we're going to start getting returns at 7:00 in those. also at 7:00, look at this in florida. all sorts of potentially competitive districts in florida. we're going to start getting numbers from there as well. and georgia, so much talk about the georgia's governor race. the theory of the stacey abrams campaign, expand the electorate, bring first time voters out. we'll start to get a read out there as well and whether it bleeds over to key congressional districts. >> steve kornacki at the big board and the answer is for

those following at home, 6, 6:00 p.m. eastern time. >> how long do you have to stay up? >> you have to pay close attention alt 6:00 because steve says we will know -- >> that's right. he's starting tomorrow. >> the thing that does not bode well for your sarcadian rhythms is there's so many important races in california. like every republican district in california the democrats are trying to flip. steve, correct me if i'm wrong here, but in terms of the democrats closing in on 23, california may be absolutely determined. >> looking at that list here, the 66 we think the democrats have the best shot of getting flips. california 10, 35, 39, 45, 48, 50, put those on the map. also include there's a few in washington state where it's like california where there's that

mail in voting. california, it took a month after the 2012 election to get all the results counted and tallied from california. so if we're ervin that situation where we're going district by district, california, the west coast could be key and could be a while. >> so the bottom line in terms of sleeping and eating -- >> i get it. all night. >> not just all night, all month. >> stop. >> i'm telling you -- we have to go to another break. >> we have to sleep. we have to start stockpiling sleep. >> something we just noticed our friend presidential historian michael beschloss on his twitter feed which is most follow. just posted this, new york times ten years ago tomorrow. very simple headline, obama. we're back after this. hey! alright, let's get going! and you want to make sure to aim it.

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we are back. it's time for our two minute drill here on football night in america. do you have a favorite race you'll be watching come tuesday? nicole wallace? >> so how do you work for a florida governor? andrew gillum i think if you think race and racism that's been ushered in with donald trump is one of the biggest problems facing this country andrew gillum's response to his

opponent when he's saying i'm not saying you're a racist but i'm saying the racists think you're a racists is a microcosm divide in this country. >> donnelly's race will be out at 6:00. if he wins i think it's a big night for the democrats. >> do you think he will? >> i'm too caught up in that one. i want him to. >> you want him to? >> i predict he will. >> i'm watching virginia ten, suburbs of washington, barbara, republican running against jennifer weston. every poll suggests comstock is going to lose. if she's losing by a little we're going to have a long evening, and it's going to be really close. if she's losing by a lot, then democrats are going to do very well tuesday night. >> that's going to do it for

your preview coverage ahead of tuesday's mid-term elections. >> think we're going to make it? >> yeah, i think we're -- we're going to need -- >> hydration, vitamins. >> you'll get to watch it tuesday night. >> it's going to be fun and a whole night. this sunday, closing arguments. president trump and the republicans focusing on immigration. >> republicans want strong borders, no drugs, no gangs, and no caravans. >> you mean the people of texas want to stop the caravan? >> secure our border, build the wall. >> while democrats talk about health care. >> you're going to have a governor who will work to expand medicaid. >> health care is on the ballot this year. >> and who we are as a nation. >> maybe most of all, the character of our country is on the ballot. >> this morning, we're on the ground in four of the most important battleground states, arizona, missouri, florida and texas. plus i'll talk to stacey abrams. the democr c