rivera and laos bergdorf. do you think republicans will keep control of the house and senate. >> we will. we will make historic in 2018 just like 2016 by reelecting and expanding republican majorities on capitol hill. i think that my primary focus of course has been on the senate because there are so many people in the house and that's a lot of stops. >> exactly two months ago mike pence said his boss was very confident about winning the house. yesterday the president sure wanted to focus on the other chamber of congress, we will talk about that. good morning and welcome to "morning joe." it is monday, november 5th. with us we have msnbc nbc contributor mike barnicle, national political correspondent for nbc news and msnbc and author of "the red and the blue", steve kornacki. pulitzer prize winning columnist and msnbc political analyst eugene robinson is with us, and

nbc news national political reporter heidi przybyla. good group this morning. >> what a great group. boy, as we get into the home stretch, it is so tight. >> it's tight. >> dan rather said tight as a tick -- >> he's got so many. >> mike, what was the -- what was the famous hollywood line that says everything you ever need to know about hollywood -- >> goldman's line, nobody knows nothing. >> nobody knows nothing. >> we will. >> steve kornacki, you look at the polls, obvious republican trend after kavanaugh, seems to be a slight democratic trend now, slight, but everything is locked up. if the republicans have a better turnout operation that swings it by one or two points they keep the house, if the democrats have an adequate turnout operation they even swing to maybe one

point, they take the house, but it is so tight. this could be either way. >> the numbers i'm seeing, it's fascinating, because in our j generic ballot democrats have the seven-point advantage. they can't just win that house popular vote, they probably need a pad of a few points. they're getting it in our poll. we have trump's approval rating at 46% which is as good as it's been in one of our polls since he's been president. >> that nbc poll seems way out of line with the abc poll that has him at 40 and gallup at 41. >> abc has him at 44. if you take the average approval rating of everything out there it locked in at 43.9 yesterday. >> so he is at 43.9. >> there is another one coming out this morning so we will see what that says. i would also say "the new york times" has been doing these individual house districts by house district polls around the country -- >> by the way, the upshot, i used to make fun of people going to make silver, the little

meter. i go to those polls every five minutes because i'm always -- >> they're addictive. >> the old politician in me, i'd always tell everybody that worked for me, don't look at the number, looks at the trends, all that matter are the trends. all those upshot polls i have noticed a slight democratic trend over the past four or five days. >> and i think it might even be more than slight. if i was just looking at those polls -- >> i'm sort of -- i'm trying to -- >> i think i'm having the same reaction as you. if i just looked at those polls that is the best run of polls they've been doing this for more than a month now, it's the best run of polls democrats have had in these key races. there was one in particular, a trump district, illinois, randy holtkin falling six points behind. >> what's so fascinating about -- i don't know if you've been following upshot, and we will get into all the polls, but if you've been following the upshot in the "new york times" it is a dream for politicians and also for political analysts

because you do see trend lines. >> right. >> for instance, you see democrats moving, democrats moving, but there is one exception, steve king, iowa one. it was i had up and then, boom, over the weekend i think a lot of people in iowa one said, hey, wait a second, we're going to stand beside him. trend line slightly in the democrats favor, but so much just depends on turnout, doesn't it? >> it all depends on turnout. look, we have seen some early voting numbers that i'm sure arguing the folks at the dnc, a lot of courage and optimism. we've seen a lot of democrats coming out, we've seen a lot of young people voting in a way that they usually don't for midterm elections. that said, early voting sometimes can bl lies the election day vote. it's hard to tell.

if democrats come out the way they've come out for early voting, it could be a very good night for democrats. >> i can tell you this, too, and, by the way, alex just told us that abc "washington post" poll is 44, all voters, 44 for registered. i will say, mika, on the other side of it, you know, as a former republican and current conservative and we have had a lot of conservatives on over the past week saying that they think it's better that democrats win this year to provide a check. >> former republican consistent conservative. >> i'm still -- yeah. i actually still believe what i believed in 1994. >> exactly. >> which i know is unique among people like mike pence and others who run up the biggest debts of all time and suddenly they are protectionists. i could go down the list. they love vladimir putin, they don't like nato so much. consistent conservative, it's very boring, but i somehow manage. but i've had a lot of people come up to me that surprise me that say, hey, i know you've got problems with the direction the

country is going, but i'm voting republican. i'm a republican, he does crazy things, i'm still voting republican. i was coming in here, cab driver, immigrant. why do you give trump so much trouble? i listen to rush every day. i'm voting republican. i said, that is fantastic. how long until we get to 30 rock? >> he was a very nice guy, but, you know, i think for a lot of us -- and i will say for a lot of conservatives like charlie sykes and rick wilson and, you know, tom nichols, a lot of us, we're really actually surprised it's this close because we thought there would be more conservatives who actually cared about what conservatism meant, but apparently they're marching lockstep with republicans. so this is a lot closer race. i will tell you i thought it was going to be. people have chosen trump over the republican party, chosen trump over conservatism and so we have -- we have a personality

cult out there that's taken over the republican party. we will see how it goes. >> i do think his war on the facts and the media has been a part of this and has prevailed. >> that's the other thing, too. the lying. the lying about the caravan is extraordinary. >> it's working. >> what about the wall? i saw a great article this weekend. >> all lies. >> he's lying about the wall. mike, they go and interview people because trump is saying i've got -- what's he saying -- i got $5 billion for the wall. we're building the wall. i'm getting mother $5 billion for the wall. >> totally untrue. >> by the way, a complete lie. then they tell the people, you know he's lying. it's your word against his. they will say, no, here, he's lying. and they will go, well, he's trying. they're being -- they're being lied to every day and they don't care. they're voting for somebody that they know is a liar. >> so you take that, you take

all the lies about the wall, building the wall, you take what he has said to further divide the country numerous times -- >> what about the ghost caravan? >> all of it. all of it. but package all of that in one bundle, set it to the side and then think about this, imagine what we would be talking about today in terms of the horse race in these various districts and various states, governorships, senator seats if he had stuck to the economy. >> that's what i don't understand. if you are donald trump and you have inherited barack obama's economy -- by the way, can we stop right here because peter baker had some numbers out. the economy has grown so much. i want to congratulate president trump on a couple things. first of all, for keeping the obama recovery going, and secondly, pointing out something that barack obama would never point out. you know, barack obama was

always very uncomfortable about talking about how great the economy was. donald trump has done it for him and i think president trump, i think it's very christ-like of him to tip his hat to barack obama. >> sarcasm. >> he has talked about how great his economy is and the jobs. donald trump in his first 21 months created 4,054,000 jobs. president obama and i have to say the obama recovery is extraordinary. he in his last 21 months, mika created number a million more jobs. i know donald trump it's got to bug him because he loses to hillary by almost 3 million votes and then you are talking about the thing that he is so proud of, jobs. president obama almost a million more jobs over final 21 months than he has created his first -- if he keeps working hard, maybe he can get close to president obama's job creation numbers.

but that's another thing, though. if i hear from another one of my friends or relatives, hey, donald trump turned the economy around. i feel like saying -- i really feel like saying, why don't you just tell me that lsu beat alabama 29-0 because you're just as wrong there. the economy was turned around and barack obama was creating more jobs in his final 21 months than trump has. not that it's a contest, but if you're going to talk about how great the economy is and that's why donald trump is the most spectacular president ever, then why don't you just go back and say everything you said about barack obama was wrong. >> personally i think he doesn't talk about the economy because sowing doubt, sowing fear, hatred between people is more effective when you're trying to break down a democracy. here is what donald trump said as to why he doesn't talk about the economy. take a look. >> msnbc is probably worse than cnn. they tell you he's got the

greatest economy. why is he talking about the border? well, you can only say so many times that we just created 250,000 jobs last month, right? now, i could say it over and over and over again and you would appreciate it, but once i say 250 and then i say again 250 and again and i tell you about -- i can only go for four or five minutes with that, and then the crowd says, we love you and they start dwindling off. >> so what he's saying is that racism sells better and lying about a wall sells better and making up stories about a caravan sells better and talking about chickenpox and monkey pox and elephant pox and weasel pox coming to the united states sells better. he's saying -- and we will see if the voters reward this. i don't think -- >> they might. >> i don't think they are. >> well -- >> but he's basically saying that people care more about fake

stories about more regard remembers in central america coming to the united states than they do about their jobs. we'll see. >> i think that we are going to have to confront something about this election being more than how bad the democrats are and perhaps some about what america looks like right now. >> the final -- >> it's hard to say. >> the final several weeks of this campaign has been about racism. by the way, it will be written that way in the history books. it has been about racism. >> it's hard. >> donald trump has made up a story about an invasion of brown people coming to the united states, bringing diseases. at every opportunity he could talk about tax cuts, he could talk about the economy, he could talk about jobs. he has chosen to attack brown people. to attack the others. >> and others have chosen to go with him. >> that's the possession he has

made, we will see how people vote. >> brand-new polling this morning, the final nbc news maris polls of the statewide races in florida, andrew gillum is at 50%, four points ahead of republican ron desantis at 46%, but still within the margin of error. >> this is -- well, okay, i won't stop right there. >> and in the states senate race bill nelson leads republican governor rick scott 50% to 46%, another race just inside the poll's margin of error. >> all right. so, steve, here is another thing i've noticed. and as we get to the end of the campaign you will notice something interesting, nelson's numbers are going up, scott's numbers are going up, gillum's numbers are going up, desantis' numbers are going up. the undecided are moving towards their candidates. now, if i had been around going into my fourth election and i had 9, 10, 11% of the people

undecided about me after, you know, doing three terms and running for my fourth race, i would tell everybody around me, if they are undecided about me now they ain't going to vote for me. they know who i am. i'm just wondering as we see these breakings, isn't it more likely that you're going to have more people breaking for the challenger than the incumbent, especially in that incumbent has been around for ten years and they are still undecided? >> i think the wild card is, though, it's the trump midterm. if you look at like bill nelson, somebody who is been there, going for his fourth term right now, sort of a reputation for being not the most overwhelming political force, maybe got lucky in a couple elections, he got to run against catherine harris one year. >> but you've got a situation where, you know, it is the midterm election and you are the opposition party and that's been a party that has saved a lot of incumbents in the past who have

been in that situation. the two most note al things in those polls are, number one, gillum continues to lead. every poll i've seen of this matchup -- >> gillum has been ahead from -- >> from the beginning. every poll. and i think he's dragging nelson along. >> i think he is, too. >> i think nelson is in his draft and it's really helping nelson a lot. you saw that rally the other day, you had obama and gillum essentially bringing, you know, nelson along with them. >> when bill nelson goes to an ame church they're not standing up in the pews for bill nelson, but he did draw a great gubernatorial candidate for what he needs for his weak spot, i think you're right, i think gillum may drag him over the finish line. >> what happened to rick scott? didn't he get a bump from the hurricane? >> they poll the question how did the corner handle the

hurricane it was 61/21 support. the thought and hope among republicans was -- you remember chris christie in new jersey with superstorm sandy, that you would see a mini version of that. i don't see it in those numbers, no. >> i want to get tidy in here. the president visited florida yesterday where he leveled this criticism of democrat andrew gillum who is vying to be the state's first black governor. >> i will say this, andrew gillum is not equipped to be your governor. just not equipped. it's not for him. it's not for him. he knows it. he won't say it, but he knows it. we've got to keep this state great. you're going to make it even greater if you do ron and otherwise i'm telling you it's going to be problems like you never imagined. >> okay. it's a similar line of attack that he used last week against stacey abrams who is also looking to be georgia's first black governor. yesterday abrams responded. >> oprah is good, but the woman

that she's supporting is not qualified to be the governor of georgia by any stretch of the imagination. i think brian is going to be a great governor of georgia, i think he will be a fantastic governor, he is totally qualified. she is not qualified to be the governor of georgia. she is not qualified. >> he said you just simply weren't qualified to be governor. he didn't say why. how did you take that assessment? >> i find his assessments to be vapid and shallow. i am the most qualified candidate. i'm a business owner, a tax attorney who was trained at yale law school, i am a civic leader who helped register more than 200,000 georgians. i am a accomplished political leader who worked across the aisle to improve access to education, to transportation and i blocked the single largest tax increase in georgia history. there is no one more qualified standing for this office in georgia. >> and how funny that a guy that inherited $200 million from his daddy blew it all, went bankrupt. >> in a big way. >> several times. and now --

>> now he just puts his name on buildings because he can't get a loan in new york city because he was such a bad businessperson. he is a reality tv host and that even faded at the end. i mean, how funny that he's doing that. but i immediately went back to 1987 when i heard those words "not equipped." sounded like something that al campanas said on night line when he said that black players were very good, but they lacked certain -- >> essentials. >> -- essentials. i don't believe it's prejudice, i truly believe that he may not have some of the necessities to be a field manager or perhaps a general manager. he was fired for saying that 30 years ago. the president of the united states said that this weekend. >> you know, there were a lot of races to cover. we have covered a lot of races,

but in a sense we haven't paid enough attention to the internals of what's going on in that georgia governor's race. i mean, brian kemp, the secretary of state, horrific conflict of interest. he is in charge of the election. he has been in charge of trying to suppress the vote in georgia for several years. >> a federal court called him out for trying to suppress the vote. >> with no proof at all over the weekend he charges the democrats campaign for governor with trying to the aer of vote, was trying to fix -- bag the election. no proof at all two days before the election. >> just back to the point you were making, joe, this is vile, pru trid, frank racism. >> thank you. i've been waiting to hear that. >> that's what it is. it's not even pretending. it's not dog whistle. you know, it's a siren. it couldn't be clearer. >> gene, i like that word, clack

southeast sen, can you use that. >> i haven't trademarked it. >> it's a strong word. >> the one thing i would say in georgia this, may be revealed on tuesday night, we will see in the returns, but fulton county, atlanta and the counties immediate around it in the last generation or so the populations have been exploding, they've been diversifying. gwinnett county hillary clinton became the first democrat presidential candidate ever to carry it. i'm wondering if the effect of the focus of this campaign on kemp's actions as secretary of state if it could end up having a reverse effect where it plays right into the democratic hands in terms of firing up those voters, getting them interested and driving up numbers like we have never seen for democrats in that part of georgia. if that happens those two congressional seats, woodall and

ha handel, this he certainly could. >> heidi, i mean, kemp, just shameless. absolutely shameless. now claiming that the democrats have tried to hack the election computers and he's putting that conspiracy theory on the front page of the state website for voting. >> this is a test for the media, too, joe, because there's absolutely no evidence, they provided no evidence, and they said that, in fact, there is no sign that anything was actually hacked. of course, this comes as the issue of voter suppression and voting rights is a hot button issue there with the democrats trying to get those absentee ballots counted. i did want to also point out to your point about racism and race and how race is factoring into this, it is as the race issue became really prominent that the polls tightened because it was only a couple of weeks ago that

desantis had the lead and then he made that fateful comment about monkey it up. then we had the racism robocalls coming into the state. then president trump called him a thief. all of these dog whistles. what did we see? we saw the polls tightening. >> right. >> so while some of these ads that are really culturally sensitive and culturally insightful may be playing well in some of those rural states like montana where the president has a big base, what we're seeing in florida and georgia is that it's making the polls tighten. to steve's point, in georgia we've seen 155% increase in voter registration over 2014. the pollsters i talked to say that this is why this is going to be so hard to call up until the very end because our voting models are all based on past voting behavior. here you're seeing a historic

turnout. what did we see in 2017? this is the only comparison we really have was the gubernatorial race here in virginia when we saw that type of turnout, we saw a new democratic governor elected and we saw a historic number of democrats elected at the state legislative level. >> that's what's so interesting, again, not talking about the economy but talking about imaginary walls and imaginary caravans is that donald trump already had those voters locked down. if you like donald trump because he was racially insensitive and he said these outrageous things, you already had those people, it's the swing voters in the suburbs that might have been persuaded if this entire campaign had been about my taxes have been cut, regulations are being cut, the economy is still growing well, we are in the middle of the obama recovery. not as big as the obama recovery but still donald trump has not

completely destroyed the obama recovery and they would think that and they would get a lot more votes, but donald trump has reminded them of charlottesville every day over the last couple weeks and what does that do? that inspires democrats, independents, moderate and suburban republicans to vote democratic. >> it may, but i also will just say we confronted him about the birtherism, we say it's bad and wrong and he said in a low voice, i know it's bad but it works. racism in his mind works. that's what he told us. >> we'll see. >> still ahead on "morning joe." >> i'm not so sure it will. and we have a ton of polls. >> there's also georgia, tennessee, missouri, arizona. we will run through the latest closing poll numbers from key battle ground states on this final day of the midterm campaign. >> and we will ask steve kornacki, try to provoke him, get him into a rage, have him throwing things. >> he has a long couple days ahead of him.

first a check on the forecast with marathoner bill karins. my god, you are amazing. >> i don't know about that, but we finished. >> good for you. >> let's get into this forecast. you have been talking about all these states. yeah, there it is. they give it to anyone. all you have to do is cross the finish line. so the battle ground states that we are talking about with weather impacts out here, we will see severe weather later on tonight, a chance of tornadoes in mississippi later on tonight. people could wake up tomorrow morning as we start the election day without power because of these storms tonight. tennessee and mississippi especially. here is a look at the battle ground states for the senate races in the yellow and here is the weather laid on top of it. all of the rain on the east coast for the election day, possibility of strong storms, but down in florida, especially the panhandle region is where we could be dealing with storms as we go throughout the morning and continuing into the afternoon. pensacola, panama city, tallahassee, the rest of florida does look like it's going to be okay for election day. the severe weather threat, as i mentioned, chance of tornadoes later on tonight, these could be overnight tornadoes, too, those

are the ones that tend to be the most deadly, people are asleep. make sure you have your phones charged if you get alerts on your phones. these are areas of mississippi, southern tennessee and northern alabama. for election day itself we have 35 million people under a slight risk of severe storms from atlanta, we have the governor race here in georgia, and then the chance of strong storms through the carolinas into areas of richmond and d.c. and philadelphia. active weather over the next two days. i know we will be diving deep into the election stuff on "morning joe" but don't be surprised if you wake up and we are hearing about bad tornadoes that occurred later on tonight into tomorrow morning. washington, d.c. you are under light rain this morning, that ends this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon a chance of some severe storms. you're watching "morning joe." we will be right back. alexa, play weekend mix.

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and nancy pelosi and the legendary maxine waters take power, they will try to erase our gains and eradicate our progress. it will be ridiculous, frankly. it will be bad for our country. the democrats -- and it could happen. it could happen. we're doing very well and we're doing really well in the senate, but could happen. do you know what you do? my whole life, do you know what i say? don't worry about it, i'll just figure it out. does that make sense? i'll just figure it out. >> i don't want you to. stick to the numbers. i don't want to do that. it's tanning bed. don't worry about it. >> he's just so orange. what tanning bed makes you that orange? >> his eyelids are not. this is not what we do. >> i know it's not, but i'm just curious. >> he likes a tanning bed. makeup. >> i hope he's okay. >> he's okay.

>> are you sure? >> uh-huh. >> there is a cnn poll out that suggests he may not be. >> what's that. >> cnn just propped a poll. 55 rs. the generic ballot, 55% supporting democrats, 42% supporting republicans. >> that's interesting. >> that's a pretty big swing. also on the approval rating -- my mic fell. >> don't get too close. >> i'm not. on the approval rating we are looking at donald trump at 39% and among likely voters 41%. steve kornacki, we've been talking about a slight trend, that's a little more dramatic of a move for democrats. >> in those numbers -- i should say they are in line, cnn, every poll has its own quirks and trends, the cnn poll consistently all year has been on the more negative side for trump. but those numbers if there's anything remotely like that on tuesday, those are numbers that are not in line with just a democratic takeover but a

democratic wave. when trump's approval gets into the low 40s, high 30s, when the anyirk ballot reaches into the double digits, the democrats need that pickup of 23 seats, that's the formula for something a lot bigger than that. >> when we are looking at 6%, 7% swings, mike, not enough for democrats because so many of those come from states that are overwhelmingly democrat. you go to these swing districts. so if you're looking at five, six-point difference, that's going to be a really, really tight race. if it starts going out to 10, 11, 12, 13, that makes a difference. also steve and other people would tell you one of the great predictors at the end of the day for midterm elections are the president's approval ratings, gallup has him down to 40, cnn has him at 41. >> and 39. >> and 39, yeah. >> look, if it's 55/42 and the democrats don't take the house it's time for them to go into another business, you know.

house painting or something like that. one of the under covered, maybe you can't cover it is the anecdotal evidence that the more trump is on tv speaking in this election frame mode, race, mentioning race subtly, immigration, the wall, the more it drives the early vote. >> it's fascinating and it's i think a broader question, too, the more trump is dominating things and the more he's dominating it by the being trump style, the leaning into cultural conflict and that sort of thing, it doesn't fire up the base but does it have a negative effect on the reluctant trump voters. the ones in the closing days of the 2016 race came on board because they didn't like hillary clinton, they generally liked the republican party and want to be with the republican party and in the closing days of the 2016 campaign trump's handlers managed to take his phone away from him and he was reading scripts at rallies. in the closing days of 2018 it's not that. it's something very different.

>> the other thing that's been happening in these closing days is that the democrats' biggest weapon, barack obama, has been out there doing rallies. >> yes. >> it's the first time democrats have had someone, you know, rallies that can -- >> bring a crowd. >> if not match, go up against the trump rallies. those obama rallies have been really something. >> or as trump said barack h. obama. >> i hadn't thought of it until you pointed it out. after the comey letter in the fall of october -- >> trump went dark. >> -- he didn't have much to say. >> had nothing to say. >> and it clearly had an impact. >> he went dark then and as alex said he's gone orange this time. >> stop. i don't want to talk about that. >> "orange is the new black." >> that's what i hear. oh, my god, do not tell a lot of his supporters. you know, if this thing continues that way, it's like every day that he's out there --

>> he's going to be brown. >> -- you know he has candidates, republican candidates like barbara comstock that's like, please, just go home. stop talking. he is making it so much harder for republicans by going out there -- >> i don't know. >> no, he cements the base he already has, he offends suburban voters. >> some of these republicans are surprising, that's all i have to say. >> these races have gotten as tight and actuality tuesday as a texas twister on a thursday night. >> here we go, guys. everybody look. claire mccaskill pulling into the lead as she seeks a third term. come on, claire 50% to josh hawley's 47%. slightly better for mccaskill than the tied race the poll found in august. >> there is no reason claire mccaskill should be within 15

points in any race. if this woman wins again in that state without todd aiken this time -- >> i'm obsessed with her. i love her. >> if this is breaking her way, that's going to be one of the biggest democratic achievements of the night. >> there's two states that are very similar, missouri and indiana. in both of those states the trump/clinton margin was about the same, about a 20 point margin for trump in 2016 and in both of those states with mccaskill in missouri who republicans have looked at for the last six years and said she only won because of todd aiken and donnelly in indiana who republicans have looked at for the last six years and said, remember, he only won because richard murdoch the republican nominee had a todd aiken-like moment in that campaign. they were both thought to be fluke winners in 2012, put them up against more republican candidates and they said we will take them out. our polling has shown conley -- donnelly ahead in indiana.

>> if at the end of the night democrats survive in montana, missouri, west virginia, indiana, that's going to be as shocking as republicans winning in pennsylvania and wisconsin in the senate races in 2016. turning to arizona, republican pollster, the trafalgar group finds the democratic congressman -- >> yrsten sinema ahead of martha mcsally. that's goes. >> a surprising new poll from east tennessee state university conducted in late october found the republican house member marsha blackburn tied with the former very popular democratic governor, this of course, is what -- >> phil bredesen. >> political historians will call the taylor swift effect. 44% to 44%. you know, bredesen has done

something really interesting, heidi. he has distanced himself from the national democratic party whenever he felt like distancing himself. >> like during -- for the kavanaugh hearings. >> for the kavanaugh hearings, the way they've been handling themselves nationally. he is uniquely independent. you don't usually hear somebody that's a member of a party as openly critical of the party, unless, of course, they're claire mccaskill and then she just calls some people in her own party crazy. >> right. well, you're seeing this in a number of races as well, joe, as i went around to different districts at the local level for house democrats who are running in these more conservative districts. that they are trying to distance themselves from the national party there. they are, for instance, not at all shy about saying that they don't support nancy pelosi, which was the case when i visited virginia 7. so this should not be a race as

far as tennessee is concerned. if bredesen pulls it out there, then i think we are truly looking at a wave election because republicans have already pretty much counted out a lot of these rust belt states where trump carried them, like pennsylvania, the governor's race there is pretty much gone. the governor's race in michigan is pretty much gone. so if we're moving into the republican rock ribbed territory here i think we are looking at a wave election to see it this close. again, like we said in the previous segment, it's hard to know how accurate this polling is because it does seem to swing on a day to day basis, but if bredesen pulls it out that's going to be pretty surprising. >> i think tennessee and texas, republicans have to be the odds on favorite. that said you have a close poll there, maybe an outlier, but you have beto within three points in

an emerson poll this past week. republicans, of course, mocking him consistently. if the democrats are going to take back the senate, they've got -- they've got to win north dakota, tennessee or texas. they're big. we will talk to -- >> i believe that texas race is hotter than a yellow dog on the fourth of july in amarillo. that's how hot i think it is. >> something like that. >> i think so. >> still ahead, democrats are hoping for a blue wave tomorrow and political experts say virginia could be one of the early indicators of that. heidi przybyla will have that new reporting next on "morning joe." here we go.

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joining us now former aide to the george w. bush white house and state department elese jordan. we will get to you about a few of trump's midterm stances in just a moment but first, heidi, you spoke with voters in virginia's 7th congressional district about that race. what did you hear?

>> if there is legitimately going to be a blue wave analysts tell me one of the first places that we should look on tuesday night is virginia's 7th congressional district. that's these bedroom communities around richmond that have not gone blue since nixon. so i went there to find out, is trump's closing arguments doing more to help or more to hurt when it comes to these house republicans. remember, this should not be a competitive district for democrats, brat won it by 15 points last time now it's a dead heat. so i got together a panel of lifelong republicans. here you will hear from republicans like mike, who has never voted democrat before, who voted for david brat, but is for the first time voting for a democrat. you will also hear from sara who worked in the george h.w. bush administration and you will also hear from a brat supporter. take a listen. >> just a show of hands how many of you have been lifelong republicans? and how many -- how many of you have voted for eric cantor, who

previously represented this district? >> who are you planning to vote for? >> brat. >> and why is that? >> because he supports trump and i believe that trump has a heart for america. >> are you following this coverage of the caravan at the border? >> how could i miss it? >> how do you feel about all of that? >> i'm not happy with the rumors i hear that somebody from this country is financially subsidizing the caravan. >> so these republicans are going to tell us how far really the suburban revolt is going to go. if you listen to them, they had a range of grievances from complaining about the way that mueller has been treated to just the cultural argument. one of the gentlemen there his brother is a union member and he can't understand why he's supporting trump given all of these cultural grievances. and that superintendent there, though, where i met the trump supporter, tells me that there are still a lot of die hard brat

supporters and you see these tensions in the community between more upscale republicans where all of the signs are for the democrats spanberger and the more working class areas. so here i want to also show you a clip of what the toll is, the personal toll, of some of these stresses within those communities. take a look. >> when you talk about the politics of cultural division, how are you experiencing that in your communities? you've touched a little bit on the divide and some people who don't want to discuss it, but how is it affecting your daily lives? is it? >> i didn't talk to my dad for four months. a year for me with my mother. >> really? >> i ended up -- >> she wouldn't take my call. >> wow. >> you can see here, joe and mika, the tension that this is creating within these communities. when you drive around there you do see a lot of signs for the spanberger candidate, who is the

democrat, but just a lot of inter-family tensions as well. >> that's fascinating. >> we just have a rule, we talk about kids, we will talk about grandkids, i'm serious, we will talk about baseball, we will talk about sec football. >> yeah. >> but we don't talk politics because it just -- it just -- why? especially if somebody is coming at me with just a lie. like the woman in the super market talking about george soros funding a caravan. how am i supposed to deal with that over the dinner table. you know? i talk about alabama football, kicking lsu 29-0 in the most dominant performance in crimson tide history. >> unless you're talking to somebody from louisiana you're good with that. >> it's totally fine with lsu fans. who cares. sorry lsu fans. >> one x factor in virginia i say as a virginian is -- and i don't know how exactly it's going to play but it heightens

everything is charlottesville. charlottesville really hit home in virginia in a way -- obviously it hit home across the country, but it's personal, it's close. it's a big deal big deal there. >> it's a big deal, and if you are a republican candidate and there are any suburbs in your area in virginia, you've got the same problem that democrats -- republicans in florida have. you have a trumpist at the top of the ticket in virginia and at the top of the ticket in florida. everybody in florida knows, if putnam had won, he would be up by 30 points right now. that race would be over. instead you've got gilman/trump scaring voters there, and in virginia -- these guys have all of trump's negatives without his crazy political skill set. >> well, and you've seen how the phony trumpists just haven't

been successful. go back to the virginia governor's race and look what happened in that race with ed gillespie. that wasn't who ed gillespie was, and it wasn't authentic to voters. we went around with lord ashcroft polls and just completed about six focus groups going from new hampshire all the way to california, and we're going to cut to some of that sound now and hear what people are saying about the caravans. >> oh, god. >> trump is not making himself look very good in this situation. he just keeps making assumptions as to what's happening, and he will say one thing and then retract it, so he's just kind of making himself look pretty foolish in the way this is being handled. >> if i'm fleeing from a country i'm terrified of, i'm not going to be sporting their colors as i flee from them. i think they've left us no choice. the people that are coming here and whoever orchestrated the entire thing. >> i'm kind of a rule follower,

and it's cool to follow the rules and that's fine. but don't just jump the fence or, you know, swim the river. just do it the right way. that's what i like about trump. he questions what's going on, and yeah, some of his wording isn't the best. >> but, see, elise, i'm a little fool. i've always been conservative on immigration. i believe in coming to america, the first thing you do needs to be legal. right? but this isn't about how tough you are on illegal immigration, this is about what's true and what's false. and george soros ain't paying people in guatemala to come to the united states. >> using the military as a political prop, too. the problem is democrats aren't setting up any other rule-basedrule-based alternati

alternative. it's either/or. either we've got military on the border and they're potentially shooting at women and children, or you have lawless immigration, and you have no checks and balances at all. so there is nothing for those in the middle -- >> that's how trump is setting it up. >> yes, this is how the -- and also democrats are doing nothing to counter that. look at phil bretison in tennessee is having a slightly different message, and he's saying, this is a problem. we can't just have unchecked flow over the border, but that's very different from the national democrats -- >> gene, how important would it be for chuck schumer and the democratic leader two years ago. you know, we could help with the wall, but it has to be something that works. it probably won't be a physical wall, because your own head of dhs said that doesn't work. if you come to america, you have to come here legally. and if you come here legally, we're going to put you in the

back of the line. we are a nation of law, we are a nation of refugees. we're going to be tough on the border. it wouldn't have hurt them to say that and continue pounding that home. >> he certainly could have said something like that, but one thing that gets overlooked is it is perfectly legal, it is an accepted procedure to present oneself at the border asking for asylum. and then you can be -- you know, you can be admitted pending review of the case, or you can be turned away. but that's what these people intend to do when they get there, however many get to the border. it's not like they're intending to try to swim across the border, as if that were possible at a point of entry, which it's not. >> again, that's important to explain. at some point there will be a democrat, an actual democrat that can explain all this, and donald trump's racist arguments will all go out the window. >> but in absence of an explanation, and in absence of

another plan, that makes -- that drives republican voters, and so while the trump supporters we spoke to, they weren't supportive of ending birthright citizenship, and they just felt that was really coming from left field, and they understood the constitution way more than donald trump does, they like the idea of something being done, and they feel like it's just nothing is being done to solve immigration and the stagnation. so if it's just a fervor against trump and against the crazy elements of this plan without presenting your plan, then trump wins. >> that's a good point. >> this is a void that democrats over the next two years, they just have to fill that void. we're not saying trump is right. he's not, he's crazy, he's lying, his appeals have been racist. democrats just need to have a more proactive response. >> one thing they ought to keep in mind is that a lot of working class voters who ought to be democrats do have different

views on immigration and its impact on wages for the working class. they do. >> it's up to the democratic party for the past 30 years hasn't focused on. let's go to steve real quick. >> real quick, then i've got to go. >> thank you, mother. we'll get this out of the way. so i wanted to go back to our two trump gubernatorial candidates in florida. they're out of step as far as that true trumpism. that's out of state with the i-4 corridor with northern virginia. do you think at the end of the day that's going to have a big impact on those two important states? >> yeah, let's take virginia. 7:00 eastern we're going to get poll closings in virginia. four who hope they'll have that suburban result. you have the 10th, the 7th, which are the richmond burbs,

then you have the 5th district which is more rural but what is in the 5th district, in the heart of it, is charlottesville. so if there is backlash, charlottesville itself, but they chose to vote for stuart. that could be the route on not just for virginia but nationally. >> heidi, eugene robinson, steve kornacki, thanks to you all for being on this morning. it's going to be a long week, so get ready. up next, republicans in some of the tightest races are taking their chances with the trump playbook. the "new york times" jerry peters joins me for this new reporting and we'll bring in jake watson with his predictions for tomorrow's election. >> he's not kornacki. >> he's smarter than me. i'm not saying anything.

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this tuesday, november 6, democrats are bringing much needed change to america. there is a blue wave on the horizon, and i've never felt more confident. >> the democrats are taking back the house. it's a win-win need and a win we're going to get. i'm sure of it. >> they don't trust the polls but i'm choosing to. we're finally going to put this administration in check. >> we're going to win. nancy pelosi just said so on colbert. >> white women promise to do the right thing this time. they're not going to let us down. right? >> we're going to win! yeah! >> this one is in the bag. >> fellow republicans, this one is for the democrats. >> once we win, will everything suddenly get better? no. there is still a long, hard

road -- kids! go inside! mommy told you! go inside till tuesday! >> till tuesday? >> just go inside! >> we can't wait to vote. so we'll see you at the polls next thursday. >> tuesday. >> i know, mom, i'm kidding. >> it was not funny! >> so be part of the victory. get out there and vote. promise me you're going to vote. >> i am. feels pretty good. >> we got this. >> oh, my gosh. >> that's as good as it gets. that was "saturday night live's" look at the democrat's state of mind with the election day -- is it 24 hours away, really? this is it! >> i will say going from republican to independent and talking to a lot of -- >> and consistently conservative. >> i'm like everybody else in my party. i'm still a conservative, same

as i was in '94. thank you for bringing that up. but democrats and republicans just look at things completely differently. again, kavanaugh comes, right? >> that was a mess. >> democrats, they all crowd under a desk and are whimpering. you do that to a republican, no. we're going to find your operation -- >> all right. >> -- we're going to figuratively torch it to the ground, we're going to salt the earth, nothing will ever grow there again, we will wake up -- i promise, we wake up at 2:00 in the morning sweating, going, how did they do that? they will never do it again. there is no moping or whining, right? it is something -- is there a psychological study on this? republicans don't think that way. you beat us, it will be the last time you beat us! >> i assume going out on this last round of groups that we

will see democratic anger at just a seething level of rage. and instead it was almost as if some democrats we heard from had just been so beaten down by the experience, and then they also would hearken back to, well, in 2016, hillary actually got more votes, too, and we still didn't win, so it might be just be hopeless. >> it's not hopeless. it's now, we're going to crush them at the polls. >> we got it. >> not to tell a story, i was up by seven points, and everybody was wondering why it was so crazy. i said, we are going to defeat him so badly that his dog will be ashamed to be seen. that's how you think and that's how you win. >> you can prepare your analogy about the martians and the poop later. as you can see, we have elise jordan, political writer for the

"new york times" and nbc political analyst nick, and for political report, david rosser m rosserman is with us. and co-host and executive producer of showtime's "the circus." also with us, columnist for the "washington post," karen tumulty. great to have you. >> i have so much to ask. these are like the smartest people we've ever had. other than all the other smart people we had. >> yeah. >> so we did show a poll cleared up by three points in st. louis. wow, does clair have a shot at stealing another one? >> i would say before that poll, we've seen two polls in which the race was tied, dead-up, straight-up tied. you saw her, she went out -- you talked about kavanaugh before,

she went out and was voted against kavanaugh, not just voted against him but announces his opposition to him quite early. but she's like one of these red state democrats who is a rare red state where there is a big chunk of traditional democratic base in st. louis and in kansas city. she knew that's where politics had to put her and she had substantive issues with judge kavanaugh. she took a little hit on that but she's been in this race throughout. just a couple points, always within the margin of error, but here at the end, all of a sudden it seems like mccaskill -- it's still a coin flip, right? no one could reasonably say she's the favorite. but there is a momentum that seems to be on her side, and if that happens, you guys were suggesting earlier, it would be one of the many shocks on the

democratic side tuesday night. >> another side of my shock, don't look at the numbers, look at the trend lines. what are the trend lines right now over the last three, four, five days? are you picking up any? >> joe, i think that sketch actually validated my theory of the blue wave is that democrats are doing really well anywhere that's like a 20-minute drive from a whole foods market. what we've seen in the last couple weeks is a separation of the battlefield. we've seen democrats maintain their lead in these upscale suburban districts. we've also seen republicans come home in these districts by 10 points or more. missouri looks surprisingly good for democrats but in places like the iron range of minnesota, downstate illinois, upstate new york, we're seeing republicans come home. the difference is in these middle class suburbs, places like outer or suburban detroit, the rich suburbs, des moines, iowa, we're seeing those

districts start to pop for democrats, and i think one of the reasons, even though the republicans have closed that advantage, democrats are outnumbering these districts by massive, massive margins. so it's more than we're hearing nationally. >> so pete sessions who i served in texas, why is pete in trouble right now? >> i just crunched the texas data yesterday. what we found in the top 15 counties in the state is that it's a staggering -- early voting is almost on pace with 2016 but the top two counties that are running closest to 2016, dallas county and travis county in austin. what that tells me is that we're seeing strong participation and enthusiasm among african-americans and left-trending whites. because keep in mind, dallas county, the white voters there are trending towards democrats, and we know about austin. but the bottom two counties on that rung are cameron and hidalgo which are in receipt th

grande valley, the most hispanic part of texas. we can't tell if beto has a chance, but if he does, it will be on suburbanites, not necessarily the hispanic vote. >> we asked beto about a week ago, republicans, conservatives were having just a wonderful time mocking him, saying he was a made-for-tv candidate, nothing else. would you bet against him right now? would you say, oh, i am absolutely certain that guy is going to lose. or is there a reason why ted cruz has acted just a little bit too crazy over the past week? is that getting tight? >> it's tight, but i think it's a small lead for ted cruz. i would bet on him. if beto wins by one, he'll be a senator. if he loses by one, i think he'll become a presidential candidate. if he loses by seven, he's going to be like a podcast host. a slippery slope here for beto. but what he is doing, joe -- >> let's hope for his sanity

that he's a podcast. that's a better life. >> or goes back to being a punk guitarist, right? even if he falls short, i think he is going to carry some democrats across the finish line in places like north dallas. pete sessions is the most vulnerable republican in texas. >> that is a shock. >> let's look at the final round of national polling before tomorrow's election. just out this morning, a poll by cnn conducted thursday through saturday that finds 55% of likely voters prefer the democratic candidate while only 42% will pick the republican. a 13-point gap in favor of flipping control of congress. in that poll, president trump's job approval among likely voters has declined since a month ago, 39% approve, 55% disapprove. this as the nbc news "wall street journal" poll has democrats ahead by seven points

on the generic ballot, 50% to 43% among likely voters. while the "washington post" abc news poll shows an eight-point lead for the democrats, 52 to 44. in the nbc "wall street journal" poll, democrats are performing best among african-americans, latinos, young voters, women and independents. winning that swing group by 12 points. republicans, on the other hand, do best among white men, white women without college degrees, voters between the ages of 50 and 64 and men. >> let me stop you right there for a second. dave, i'm going to bother you one more time. a couple people i follow on twitter who i respect, last night were suggesting that we haven't been reporting enough on the plus 65. which, of course, those are the people you focus on in midterm elections, that they're not

going as strongly for the republican party as they usually would. have you seen any data that suggests that? the millennials, i'm sorry, a shift of 1%, a hiccup, in the over 65 group. that makes a bigger difference than all the millennials voting right now just in sheer numbers in the midterm. >> the last midterm in 2014, 56% of eligible seniors cast ballots, 19.9% of millennials did. so now that we're seeing 73% of seniors engaged and 51% of millennials, you might think that's bad for democrats but that's actually massive improvement from past years. in individual districts, we're seeing democrats gain ground with seniors by talking about an age tax as part of the republican health care bill. new jersey's third district is what i'm watching. tom mcarthur was the republican broker of the repeal and replace legislation, and he's been going to the retirees and talking

about this age tax. that race looks pretty good for the democrats right now. >> karen tumulty -- well, let me get to karen in just a second. 85% of likely democratic voters expressing a high level of interest in the midterms and 82% for republicans. according to data from targetsmart, nearly 35 million americans have voted early or absentee nationwide. so that could bode well, you never know. karen, talk about the gubernatorial races and how important they are, and what they're looking like. >> they are extraordinarily important, and i really think they haven't gotten the attention this election season that they deserve. right now there are 36 states where we have governors on the ballot. ten of those right now are in states held -- i mean, a dozen of them are toss-ups and of those, ten toss-ups are in

states held bit republicans, eight of those in states that donald trump won. so there is a potential real realignment going on there as well. and the important thing to remember about governors is in the near term, we have reapportionment coming up. and a lot of these governors actually control reapportioning. they have veto power over reapportioning in their states. but as the democratic party is really trying to figure out, you know, who its new stars are going to be going into the 2020 election, and i'm sorry, guys, as soon as this one is over, we'll all be talking about 2020 again. >> we're not going to talk about 2020 until at least 8:00 a.m. wednesday morning. but go ahead. >> i do think there is a really interesting crop of democratic gubernatorial candidates here who, if they win, and especially if they win in these states where donald trump won in 2016, they are going to be the people

the party is talking about. just like, you know, the 2009-2010 class included people like nikki haley and chris christie, scott walker who is now struggling to get reelected in wisconsin. >> democrats really need a big night where they create a new bench, because the wipeouts in 2010 and 2014 for the democratic party wiped out all of their rising stars. so you're exactly right. a big win actually -- tin the governorships starts to fill that bench up. let me ask you about iowa. you were there yesterday. i noticed in the upshot polls which i explained is sort of in my political crack this election season, they all seem to be breakin breaking. all of them in the last three days, four days are breaking democratic. the one exception. steve king has actually picked up three or four points and is now up five points.

that thing was tied not long ago. you were there yesterday. what's happening in iowa? >> i actually went to king's district, and i'll get to that in a second, but i talked to ann se selzer, kind of the dean of iowa pollst pollsters. she just did a poll for the iowa register. her poll has all three of those republican districts potentially flipping to democrat. you've got an incumbent governor, which her poll has incumbent governor kim rounds losing. so you have the state donald trump won overwhelmingly in 2016 that's dominated by republicans at the level of the state house that could be a sea of blue on tuesday night. that's obviously not certain. a lot of those races are close. but if you're looking again for all various signs of potential blue waves, iowa obviously important for a variety of reasons, including control over the 2020 process.

the steve king poll is fascinating. they did kind of a generic ballot across the state and then isolated that district. she's got steve king up by four right now or has the republicans up by four. steve king got elected to congress in 2002, and in every race except one, he's won by 20-plus points. so the fact that j.d.scholten has won a very spirited race and is up in any poll tells you something about the national trend, something about steve king that's been totally abandoned now by carl rove who said steve king was dead to him, the national establishment that refused to give money. suddenly that guy who was one of the most invulnerable republican congressmen in the country is now someone who is probably likely to pull it off and survive tomorrow, but no one in iowa would be surprised if he happened to fall tomorrow night to j.d. scholten.

>> is something working for him? >> for steve king? >> uh-huh. >> i don't know. he's been there since 2002, and western iowa is western iowa, like northwest florida is northwest florida. it's just hard for democrats to win there. but i want to talk about -- i think one of the biggest surprises as a lifelong republican looking at the results coming in in 2016, we don't win where the big 10 plays football anymore. we stopped winning those states. i think there is going to be a big indication on what donald trump may be thinking about doing in 2020. i don't know if he thinks he's going to run again, but if he wakes up wednesday morning and the democrats have swept through iowa, democrats have swept through minnesota, democrats have swept wisconsin, democrats have swept michigan, democrats have swept ohio and democrats have trounced republicans in

pennsylvania, the political climate for donald trump just changed radically. and by the way, it's much more possible if you look at the polls that it's going to break that way than even split down the middle. >> if you look at the realignment in this country nationally, it began in the midwest in the old strongholds of progressives and unions in wisconsin and michigan, indiana. 2010, '12, '14, you saw democrats lose ground and lose ground in those states. and then finally in 2016, trump flips those voters for the first time in a long time, also in pennsylvania. we are now seeing the makings of a complete reversal at the state level for the governorships in many of these house races, and that is a big shift back to the historical position of these places in american politics. and i'm not sure donald trump has a different path to victory if he can't hold those working class voters and middle class voters in those states.

>> the midwest is his only path to victory any time he wins. >> is there any possibility that the republicans can hold the house? if so, how and where? >> there absolutely is. part of the reason democrats are doing well is because trump voters haven't been showing up in these special elections, right? they come up when trump is on the ballot and they don't when he's not. and the fact that hillary clinton is not on the ballot hurts republicans as well. but we're finally starting to see that these cultural flash points like kavanaugh in tand t caravan, they're better points than these tax cuts. >> he's been holding rallies for months and he'll do it right up to the election. >> they hold competitive seats by very narrow margins. steve king is still more popular in western iowa, but it's because he pals around with these nazi figures and

neo-nazis. the real reason he's vulnerable in the nation is because he's awol. the democrat has been running these two-minute ads and has the airwaves to himself. >> karen, you want to talk about the stuntman in chief. >> the way trump has been going to sort of outlandish proposals as we're heading into the home stretch, whether it is birthright citizenship, and i was in arizona over the weekend, and i have to tell you, a lot of people were perplexed there even by that. but also militarizing the border, essentially, you know, sending down the u.s. military, active duty personnel for the first time, not just reservists and guardsmen, to essentially act as props for his border security calls. so i think it really says something about how the

president regards his base. we often hear that the base takes him seriously, if not literally, but it really does raise the question of whether he views his own base as essentially gullible or just completely impervious to the truth. >> i want to open this up to john heilman, anyone on the panel if anyone has an answer. so john, donald trump is trying to make a case about him. didn't work for ronald reagan. popular guy but got wiped out in '82, wiped out in '86. didn't work for barack obama, the only democrat since fdr, i think, to win a majority two times in a row. got wiped out in 2010, wiped out in 2014. people come out and vote for the presidents. a lot of them don't come out midterm. can you name a time that they

did? and is there any reason to believe that history is going to be bent this year, and for the first time, we're going to have all of these trump voters come out and support third parties in his name? >> there is not a lot -- if you looked at the historical presidents, there is no reason to think that suddenly we're going to see some reversal. there have been obviously some midterms where a president's party has done reasonably well and have surprised people. bill clinton, you'll remember, in 1998, george bush in 1992, those were times of impeachment and a terror attack on the united states. the one thing all of us in the business are aware of and i think sometimes even a little cowed by is how trump has defied political gravity and so much of what happened in 2016 varied from what we all expected on the basis of the data, on the basis

of history, on the basis of precedent, so i think we're all open to the possibility that something unusual could happen here tomorrow because we're trying to be a little bit modest here and recognize that trump is an incredibly weird variable who has produced some incredibly unexpected outcomes with his politics. >> lbj even in '64, one of the greatest landslides of all time, and what happened in '66. conservative counter-revolution ronald reagan gets elected. >> one counter-point, joe. this president came into office under investigation. there was impeachment talk within a year of his taking office. so i think to some extent, we're seeing the rallying that we saw around bill clinton in '98 which netted a small grow for dem seats there. it's very different. he has brought his people to

defend his presidency in the second year of the presidency. >> dave, what do you think? >> when i've met with these democratic candidates for congress this year, i see some incredibly impressive resumes, especially the women with national security experience. yet there is this feeling that i get that democrats are building a better bench for 2024 than their 2020 contenders, right? who would you rather have as your nominee against trump in 2020? would you rather have a suburban mom who was recently in the cia and doesn't have a lengthy political record, or a 71 71-year-old academic? it's hard for these house seats to suddenly turn around and run for president. >> thank you all. and on wednesday we want to let you know the morning after tomorrow's election, we're going to be broadcasting live in front of a studio audience from

historic studio 8h here at rockefeller center. tune in for that. we'll be there. it will abe a long night. still ahead this morning, last week it was a full-fledged national emergency requiring thousands of fully armed troops. now it seems like a little barbed wire would do the job? we're going to talk to homeland security jeh johnson about security tactics. we'll be right back. >> would you look at what's marching up? that's an invasion. that's not -- that's an invasion. you saw that barbed wire going up, that barbed wire. yes, sir, we have barbed wire going up. because you know what? we're not letting these people invade our country, we want them to come in. we want them to come in, but they have to come in legally. they have to come in legally. vo: you're feeling the squeeze.

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joining us now, nbc news capitol hill correspondent and host of kcdc on msnbc, kasie hunt. >> we physically can't do it? why can't we do it? >> because it's not in the election. wait, hold that up. >> do you know kasie has risen above it? it's time to move on. >> by the way, i saw -- are you a queen fan? >> oh, god. >> from time to time. >> jeremy peters is here. >> very, very good. you cannot do a good rock biopick. you cannot name it. there just isn't one. >> the doors. >> come on. >> queen.

rhapsody -- did you see it? you saw "bohemian rhapsody"? >> greatest documentary since the eagles documentary. >> that's a good one, but again, it's a biopick. you're not going to have someone playing don henley. >> we're going to move on. a little housekeeping, we're not doing the lightning bolt anymore, but you can get a kcdc dog bowl. >> yes. >> now, alex, are you saying you're not allowed to do it? >> we're not doing it anymore. i have decided. >> no, you haven't decided. >> yes, i have. >> we have complete license to do so, we just can't -- there's so many buttons -- it's a technical thing. there's a lot of buttons. i don't know. >> buttons.

m.i.t. alex corson. >> from the conservative union republican party, al. >> al, let me go to you. buddy, we go way back. we go back to republican club meetings in fort walton beach. you know, republicans, reagan republicans, we're fighting for all the things that ronald reagan fought for. >> like last national debt, righ right, joe? >> yes, less national debt. we're trying to balance a budget. you look at what ronald reagan said about immigration, what he said about refugees, about america being a city shining brightly on the hill for all the world to see. what do you think about my former party, your party, the

way donald trump has been conducting this campaign attacking brown people, making up stories about, you know, possibly george soros funding caravans that are still 800 miles away to try to scare white voters? >> well, look, joe, on a personal level it's very hurtful. i'm a refugee to america. imagine if people had treated me like that when i got here, i wouldn't be where i am today talking to both of you. this country is in dire need of labor at the top and at the bottom. we have an administration who doesn't acknowledge it, but sadly and much more importantly, is destructive of a social fabric american. spanish being accosted at shopping malls by people as a result of vitrionic comments made by the press. it's not a good place to be if

you're hispanic in the united states. and i'll tell you this, there is going to be vote suppression here. a lot of hispanics in our country are afraid that anything that has to do with being in contact with government officials or with i.c.e., or with law enforcement. many of them are citizens with the right to vote, but some people at their homes will not be, and they don't want to be accosted and interviewed, so we're noticing a very low hispanic turnout so far. i think it will carry through election day. and i'm frankly very angry and disappointed about that. >> it's been so obvious. donald trump even called hispanics breeders. of course, we know what he said about mexicans. the lies have continued. so kasie, i'm not sure how this is going to work out. but the interesting thing is, if you even look at polls now, this is a subset of the republican party that has this hard-core view on immigration. republicans have always been for

immigration, just like reagan. so it just -- is donald trump really misreading his political hand right here by narrowcasting this way? >> i think we're going to find that out on tuesday, because i do think -- i spent the last week kind of traveling through the heartland which is the section of the country that ultimately sent donald trump to the white house. my sense there was that what donald trump is doing in the past -- over the course of the past couple weeks has animated democrats as much as it may have amped up his base in certain places. look at the state of missouri where suddenly our new poll is showing claire mccaskill ticking up as this race is coming to its final close against josh holly. that's remarkable. if the president's strategy turning out his base by hitting all these cultural division lines and it's not working in missouri, then i don't see is how it's going to work across the map.

>> let's show three polls. let's show the missouri poll first, alex, and then show the two florida polls. in missouri, claire mccaskill up three in missouri. that's just out. and then in the florida polls, we've got two florida polls that are just out that show andrew gillum up by four, and then you have the senate race and senate race bill nelson up by four points as well. again, you never know based on turnout how this is going to go, nick, but i think kasie may be right. this birthright citizenship, which, of course, it's bizarre. the only person who believes a president can do that with a pen is lindsey graham and he doesn't even believe it. people are ajust scratching ther heads. this is narrow casting. this is narrow targeting that donald trump is doing for the life of me, just politically. it's racist but also it's stupid. i don't think it's going to work. >> joe, you know, we had -- we

had a saying that it's about the economy stupid, if you remember. and, you know, the president has some good things to say about the economy and unemployment -- >> he doesn't, really. >> -- and then when he goes off to his tangent, not only does he divide the country, but you wonder if that's his best bullet. i think there are more people disappointed with those comments on immigration than those who are supporting him on that, and i don't believe in the strategy. here in florida, i heard all your commentary earlier which was spot on, both sides are confident. the democrats should be confident about the early voting. we'll have more votes cast in this election cycle than any other midterm in the history of the state, about 7.5 million votes cast. democrats have done pretty well in early voting. republicans did well on election day in 2016 but many in florida were voting for the lesser of two evils. i don't know if the president not being on the ballot will

make a difference, but we've got a lot of key races, and if we lose them in florida, that's a hard spot for somebody running for reelection in 2020 would have. >> so, jeremy, in today's paper you have a story that looks at how the trumpian playbook is being used around the country by house candidates, and you and i both saw this ad from the house republican superpac which paul ryan raises money for. that is running a straight-up caravan panic in the first -- which one is it, jeremy? >> caravan, chaos, crime, open borders, birth tourism. this is the kind of stuff you hear coming directly out of trump's mouth on the stump. i was in missouri, that missouri poll kind of reminded me of the perils here that donald trump has his party in, because you look around these rallies and

there are all sorts of trump signs. finish the wall, veterans for trump, women for trump. i didn't see a single josh hawley sign. the same was true when i was at a trump rally two weeks ago. not a single sign for the candidate running in a competitive race down there. so trump can hope that these elections are all about his popularity, but i must say i talked to a lot of voters, and only one of them told me they had voted early at that point. you can do early voting in those states. >> trump can't have anybody share the spotlight with him, so you don't see the signs. i don't think they allow people to bring signs of the other candidates. and he just -- he just talks about himself the entire time, which is fine if you're running for president. but if you're trying to get somebody else elected, not quite as effective. >> indeed. i went to an event with house speaker paul ryan who is trying to save scott walker, trying to help him. scott walker is in the race of his life in wisconsin.

this guy was the conservative hero for so long. i went with him and the senate candidate as well. it was almost as if donald trump was not the president of the united states. you wouldn't have known bit way th -- by the way they were talking. they were mentioning jobs and the economy, all the things the president thinks is boring. he's out there saying, the economy is boring for me to talk about that. that is not the case for these republican candidates. it's simply not. >> mike, i'll let you ask the question, but really quickly, i just wanted to ask you the impact of the fact. donald trump is not on the ballot, as al said. but also another name not on the ballot, hillary clinton. and that seemed to be the toxic mix that helped the unthinkable happen in 2016. whether it was hillary's fault or not, whether she had just been in public life for 40 years, that combination allowed

the unthinkable to happen. neither one of them on the ballot this year. >> not only are they not on the ballot this year, the clintons, both clintons, hillary clinton and former president clinton, are the "let's not mention their names" in district after district. >> clinton used to be the only guy in the democratic party who could go anywhere. >> let me just say that is a loss. i understand all the me too concerns candidates have. but as far as who was the smartest political guy where democrats win where democrats can't win? bill clinton. who is in second? nobody. bill clinton is the brightest political mind for the democrats and the one they need the most right now. >> they don't want him. >> he needs to do a confessional. well, listen, biden -- >> the democrats are around the country. they're running on health care and jobs. it's not crazy like the leftist

tough. they're running a very straightforward election. >> honest, real issues. >> heilman is here. >> john, let me ask you about the clintons, both clintons. it seems anecdotally what you hear around the states in gas stations, they seem to have lost almost all of their authenticity in terms of political deliverables. >> yeah. i mean, mike, i would emphasize the first thing you said which is i've been in a lot of states in the course of this last month with the circumstan"the circus" other reporting. i just don't hear their names brought up often. they're not part of the conversation. joe biden's name comes up. when you have the experience that they had or that hillary clinton had in 2016, so many people investing so much hope in you and then you lose a race you should have won, and people who invested that much in you, she

still has a lot of fans around the country. obviously i hear from her on twitter any time i say anything that's negative about her, but the reality is they're not part of the conversation anymore. it's just not on anyone's mind. people are looking forward and they're looking at this election and the next election, and i don't think very many democrats or anyone else thinks they're going to have a big role to play in 2018, which is about to end, but not in the 2020 conversations. they're just not out there. >> a lot of people are talking about the merit trump rallies. you don't hear about them among democrats at all, but trump brings them up all the time. it's part of demonization trump has entered into here. it includes nancy pelosi, bill and hillary. for gosh sakes, they're still chanting "lock her up" at rallies. it's a amazing. >> we're critical about campaign slogans, her not getting up in front of the server issue, but i

will say here is a woman who served this country for 30 years, 35 years. >> there's no question. >> regardless of what people think of hillary clinton, i think not only she but anybody who served this country for 30, 35 years deserves better than what she is getting, and this "lock her up" chant, that's something that we hear in banana republics. we shouldn't be hearing it as trump's rallies, should we? >> no. and frankly these trump rallies are kind of the design of the white house. i can tell you in florida that's the case. folks would rather not the press come and have a rally, but we're going for this 10 to 15% vote for these elections and he's not helping in that regard. i would say more than half of his rallies are a design of the white house, not of the candidate running for office. >> real quickly, how does

florida look? we'll just go with the governors' race. what do you think? >> it looks like the early votes on the democrat side are showing in the polls. we have probably two-thirds of the votes have been cast, joe, but it all remains to see who turns out to vote tomorrow. 51% of the super voters are republicans, so we'll see. i think it's a toss-up. democrats feel pretty good about it, republicans are hopeful on turnout tomorrow, but, you know, i think a lot of these elections will be decided later. we have four or five congressional races up in the air as well that could decide the house majority. >> mika, it's important to remember in florida, in 2016, i couldn't find anybody. because i kept calling people. i couldn't find a single person who thought that donald trump was going to win florida. >> yeah. >> and even into the night,

nobody thought donald trump was going to win florida. then around 8:39, i started getting calls going wondering where all the voters came from. but they are out and that guy may win florida. you're just not going to know in florida and a lot of these states until late. >> al, thank you very much. i want to bring in right now contributing writer for the "new york times," jenna wrightman. she's out with a new piece entitled "u.s. law enforcement failed to see the threat of white nationalism. now they don't know how to stop it." jenna, thanks for joining us. tell us more about what you conclude in your piece and the concerns that you have. >> i think the concern that we have is that we have a real problem in this country that we've had for some time with white supremacy, with violent people that are motivated by these ideas that we have really not been looking at. and i think it's a shocking kind of lack of focus and attention on this issue given how much

we've been spending on looking at other forms of violent extremism like islamic extremi m extremism. >> and the budgets were cut, i guess, for white nationalism, for crime control, but not for islamic extremism. so what's the law enforcement community trying to do now to catch up? >> i really, to be quite honest with you, don't know. my reporting showed that they were very much caught off guard really all year. when you saw a lot of the rallies that took place during the trump campaign and afterwards, you know, all the way through charlottesville and after, what you saw was kind of this collective "where are the police" moment, right? you would see people getting beaten up, you would see the same guys again and again going

from one place to the next. we just saw it here in new york city with the proud boys which is one of the many groups that kind of came out out of this moment that are oriented around violence. and, you know, there are people within these ranks that have criminal records, there are people -- some of these groups were formed by criminals. and except for -- very, very recently there have been some arrests. after a really long campaign on the part of a number of really terrific journalists, to be quite honest with you, to hold police accountable. but until that happened, there was almost no response. and i was shocked by that, to be honest with you, and the more that i reported this story, the more kind of astonished, to be honest, i became. >> janet, stay with us, if you will, we're bringing in homeland security under president obama,

jeh johnson. obviously oklahoma city went in your rearview mirror when you became head of hhs. we're all seeing islamic terrorism in the headlines during your domestic terrorism y is something that you had to worry about, something that others had to worry about. we had the shooting of steve scalise at the ballpark, which was -- it's hard to put ideology on that, left wing. you know, hard to put ideology on mcvay because it's so bizarre. let's talk generally about domestic terrorism. how did you approach it? are you concerned too that it's growing now, especially among the alt right? >> yes, i am concerned. i was interviewed -- very plainly while i was in offense a lot of my personal time and energy was devoted toward

building bridges to the communities in the united states where we saw isis and al qaeda was trying to recruit from within. so i visited every major metropolitan area with an american muslim community to talk to them about building bridges with the u.s. government. we began in 2016 funding local efforts at countering violent extremism. and i was pleased that our folks came forward with proposal to fund countering domestic extremism as well. so specifically, we settled on funding a group called life after hate, a group of people dedicated to helping people move away from white nationalism, white extremism. unfortunately, the current administration decided to take down the entire program. >> why is that? >> you'd have to ask them. they defunded the spire program.

>> do you know way they defunded the entire program? >> i don't. that was a question that i had as well. that program was not just meant to help white supremacists leave. they were now piloting it to help jihadis or former jihadis leave the movement. and kid inspired by isis or other radical islamic ideologies. so it wasn't just focused on white supremacists so it's very puzzling and chilling, actually. >> with this culture we live in, this social media culture. you had the bernie supporter that shot up the baseball field of republicans. you had the trump supporter sending pipe bombs around to everybody else. i don't understand why the trump administration would defund this when the very nature of political discourse has declined so rapidly in the past decade.

>> nor does the former secretary of home land security. given the education explosion of social media and the fuel that it pours on white nationalism, the growth of white nationalism and hate, do you think it requires a new definition of hate crime? and that would come, obviously, with the danger of any department of justice exceeding its boundaries, but is a new definition needed? >> i think that's an excellent question, because as we move toward a threat stream in this country of self-radicalized actors, the so-called lone wolf as opposed to the larger scale attacks inspired by and directed from overseas, what we see in this country whether it's what happened in pittsburgh or san bernardino or orlando or the west side highway starts to look a lot alike. the weapons are very often the same, the devastation is the same. yesterday on the one hand some

of it is labeled terrorism, which gets everybody very excited and you have national leaders calling for immediate change in our national policy, versus an act of mass violence that may or may not be terrorism, may or may not be a hate crime or may be a deranged actor with an assault weapon. so i agree that we need a common terminology so that our policy makers and our leaders take it all equally seriously. i think that's exactly right. >> how much power does the current administration have in deciding what to go after as a hate crime? is this something where they can you know hunilaterally decide t what's going on? >> congress with rewrite the laws in title 18 for what constitutes a hate crime or terrorism. there's also discretion. our department of justice, our attorney general can decide on his own to prioritize going

after hate crime, going after acertain brand of white nationalism that turns violent, focusing our prosecution resources and our investigation resources using the fbi for undercover informants for undercover agents to really prioritize going after this brand of hatred and violence. so much of it has to do with where you prioritize your law enforcement efforts. >> jeh, thank you very much. contributing writer for "new york times" magazine janet reitman. coming up, our latest nbc news/"wall street journal" poll shows undecided voters are now making their decisions. we'll have a slew of new numbers with just one day to go until election day. plus, a theme has seemed to emerge in the president's line of attack between two democrats

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hack has been on the senate because there are so many people in the house and that's a lot of stops. >> exactly two months ago, mike pence said his boss was very confident about winning the house. yesterday the president sure wanted to focus on the other chamber of congress. we'll talk about that.

good morning and welcome to "morning joe." it is monday november 5th. with us we have msnbc nbc contributor mike barnicle, national political correspondent for nbc news and msnbc and author of "the red and the blue", steve kornacki. pulitzer prize winning columnist and msnbc political analyst eugene robinson is with us, and nbc news national political reporter heidi przybyla. good group this morning. >> what a great group. boy, as we get into the home stretch, it is so tight. >> it's tight. >> dan rather said tight as a tick -- >> he's got so many. >> mike, what was the -- what was the famous hollywood line that says everything you ever need to know about hollywood -- >> goldman's line, nobody knows nothing. >> nobody knows nothing. >> we will.

>> steve kornacki, you look at the polls, obvious republican trend after kavanaugh, seems to be a slight democratic trend now, slight, but everything is locked up. if the republicans have a better turnout operation that swings it by one or two points they keep the house, if the democrats have an adequate turnout operation they even swing to maybe one point, they take the house, but it is so tight. this could be either way. >> the numbers i'm seeing, it's fascinating, because in our generic ballot democrats have the seven-point advantage. they can't just win that house popular vote, they probably need a pad of a few points. they're getting it in our poll. we have trump's approval rating at 46% which is as good as it's been in one of our polls since he's been president. >> that nbc poll seems way out of line with the abc poll that has him at 40 and gallup at 41. >> abc has him at 44. if you take the average approval

rating of everything out there it locked in at 43.9 yesterday. >> so he is at 43.9. >> there is another one coming out this morning so we will see what that says. i would also say "the new york times" has been doing these individual house districts by house district polls around the country -- >> by the way, the upshot, i used to make fun of people going to make silver, the little meter. i go to those polls every five minutes because i'm always -- >> they're addictive. >> the old politician in me, i'd always tell everybody that worked for me, don't look at the number, looks at the trends, all that matter are the trends. all those upshot polls i have noticed a slight democratic trend over the past four or five days. >> and i think it might even be more than slight. if i was just looking at those polls -- >> i'm sort of -- i'm trying to -- >> i think i'm having the same reaction as you. if i just looked at those polls that is the best run of polls they've been doing this for more than a month now, it's the best run of polls democrats have had in these key races. there was one in particular, a

trump district, illinois, randy holtkin falling six points behind. >> that's a district republicans thought they were going to win. >> what's so fascinating about -- i don't know if you've been following upshot, and we will get into all the polls, but if you've been following the upshot in the "new york times" it is a dream for politicians and also for political analysts because you do see trend lines. >> right. >> for instance, you see democrats moving, democrats moving, but there is one exception, steve king, iowa one. it was tied up. and then, boom, over the weekend i think a lot of people in iowa said, hey, wait a second, we're going to stand beside him. trend line slightly in the democrats favor, but so much just depends on turnout, doesn't it? >> it all depends on turnout. look, we have seen some early voting numbers that i'm sure arguing the folks at the dnc, a lot of courage and optimism.

we've seen a lot of democrats coming out, we've seen a lot of young people voting in a way that they usually don't for midterm elections. that said, early voting sometimes cannibalize the election day vote. it's hard to tell. if democrats come out the way they've come out for early voting, it could be a very good night for democrats. >> i can tell you this, too, and, by the way, alex just told us that abc "washington post" poll is 44, all voters, 44 for registered. i will say, mika, on the other side of it, you know, as a former republican and current conservative and we have had a lot of conservatives on over the past week saying that they think it's better that democrats win this year to provide a check. >> former republican consistent conservative. >> i'm still -- yeah. i actually still believe what i believed in 1994. >> exactly. >> which i know is unique among people like mike pence and

others who run up the biggest debts of all time and suddenly they are protectionists. i could go down the list. they love vladimir putin, they don't like nato so much. consistent conservative, it's very boring, but i somehow manage. but i've had a lot of people come up to me that surprise me that say, hey, i know you've got problems with the direction the country is going, but i'm voting republican. i'm a republican, he does crazy things, i'm still voting republican. i was coming in here, cab driver, immigrant. why do you give trump so much trouble? i listen to rush every day. i'm voting republican. i said, that is fantastic. how long until we get to 30 rock? >> he was a very nice guy, but, you know, i think for a lot of us -- and i will say for a lot of conservatives like charlie sykes and rick wilson and, you know, tom nichols, a lot of us, we're really actually surprised it's this close because we

thought there would be more conservatives who actually cared about what conservatism meant, but apparently they're marching lockstep with republicans. so this is a lot closer race. i will tell you than i thought it was going to be. people have chosen trump over the republican party, chosen trump over conservatism and so we have -- we have a personality cult out there that's taken over the republican party. we will see how it goes. >> i do think his war on the facts and the media has been a part of this and has prevailed. >> that's the other thing, too. the lying. the lying about the caravan is extraordinary. >> it's working. >> what about the wall? i saw a great article this weekend. >> all lies. >> he's lying about the wall. mike, they go and interview people because trump is saying i've got -- what's he saying -- i got $5 billion for the wall. we're building the wall. i'm getting another $5 billion for the wall. >> totally untrue. >> by the way, a complete lie.

then they tell the people, you know he's lying. it's your word against his. they will say, no, here, he's lying. and they will go, well, he's trying. they're being -- they're being lied to every day and they don't care. they're voting for somebody that they know is a liar. >> so you take that, you take all the lies about the wall, building the wall, you take what he has said to further divide the country numerous times -- >> what about the ghost caravan? >> all of it. all of it. but package all of that in one bundle, set it to the side and then think about this, imagine what we would be talking about today in terms of the horse race in these various districts and various states, governorships, senatorial seats if he had stuck to the economy. >> that's what i don't understand. if you are donald trump and you have inherited barack obama's economy -- by the way, can we

stop right here because peter baker had some numbers out. the economy has grown so much. i want to congratulate president trump on a couple things. first of all, for keeping the obama recovery going, and secondly, pointing out something that barack obama would never point out. you know, barack obama was always very uncomfortable about talking about how great the economy was. donald trump has done it for him and i think president trump, i think it's very christ-like of him to tip his hat to barack obama. >> sarcasm. >> he has talked about how great his economy is and the jobs. donald trump in his first 21 months created 4,054,000 jobs. president obama and i have to say the obama recovery is extraordinary. he in his last 21 months, mika

created almost a million more jobs. i know donald trump it's got to bug him because he loses to hillary by almost 3 million votes and then you are talking about the thing that he is so proud of, jobs. president obama almost a million more jobs over final 21 months than he has created his first -- if he keeps working hard, maybe he can get close to president obama's job creation numbers. but that's another thing, though. if i hear from another one of my friends or relatives, hey, donald trump turned the economy around. i feel like saying -- i really feel like saying, why don't you just tell me that lsu beat alabama 29-0 because you're just as wrong there. the economy was turned around and barack obama was creating more jobs in his final 21 months than trump has. not that it's a contest, but if you're going to talk about how great the economy is and that's why donald trump is the most spectacular president ever, then why don't you just go back and say everything you said about barack obama was wrong. >> personally i think he doesn't

talk about the economy because sowing doubt, sowing fear, hatred between people is more effective when you're trying to break down a democracy. here is what donald trump said as to why he doesn't talk about the economy. take a look. >> msnbc is probably worse than cnn. they tell you he's got the greatest economy. why is he talking about the border? well, you can only say so many times that we just created 250,000 jobs last month, right? now, i could say it over and over and over again and you would appreciate it, but once i say 250 and then i say again 250 and again and i tell you about -- i can only go for four or five minutes with that, and then the crowd says, we love you and they start dwindling off. >> so what he's saying is that racism sells better and lying about a wall sells better and making up stories about a caravan sells better and talking

about chickenpox and monkey pox and elephant pox and weasel pox coming to the united states sells better. he's saying -- and we will see if the voters reward this. i don't think -- >> they might. >> i don't think they are. >> well -- >> but he's basically saying that people care more about fake stories about marauders in central america coming to the united states than they do about their jobs. we'll see. >> i think that we are going to have to confront something about this election being more than how bad the democrats are and perhaps some about what america looks like right now. >> the final -- >> it's hard to say. >> the final several weeks of this campaign has been about racism. by the way, it will be written that way in the history books. it has been about racism. >> it's hard. >> donald trump has made up a story about an invasion of brown

people coming to the united states, bringing diseases. at every opportunity he could talk about tax cuts, he could talk about the economy, he could talk about jobs. he has chosen to attack brown people. to attack the others. >> and others have chosen to go with him. >> that's the decision he's made. we'll see how people vote. still ahead on "morning joe," we'll drill down on florida and the governor and senate races there. a once-in-five hundred year storm should happen every five hundred years, right? fact is, there have been twenty-six in the last decade. allstate is adapting. with drones to assess home damage sooner. and if a flying object damages your car, you can snap a photo and get your claim processed in hours, not days. plus, allstate can pay your claim in minutes.

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♪ welcome back to "morning joe." brand new numbers this morning, the final nbc news maris polls of the statewide races in florida, andrew gillum

is at 50%, four points ahead of republican ron desantis at 46%, but still within the margin of error. in the state's senate race, incumbent senator bill nelson leads rick scott 50-46%. another race just inside the poll's margin of error. >> steve, as we get to the end of the campaign, you notice something interesting, nelson's numbers are going up, gillum's numbers are going up, desantis' numbers are going up. the undecided are moving towards their candidates. now, if i had been around going into my fourth election and i had 9, 10, 11% of the people undecided about me after, you know, doing three terms and running for my fourth race, i would tell everybody around me, if they are undecided about me

now they ain't going to vote for me. they know who i am. i'm just wondering as we see these breakings, isn't it more likely that you're going to have more people breaking for the challenger than the incumbent, especially in that incumbent has been around for ten years and they are still undecided? >> i think the wild card is, though, it's the trump midterm. if you look at like bill nelson, somebody who's been there, going for his fourth term right now, sort of a reputation for being not the most overwhelming political force, maybe got lucky in a couple elections, he got to run against catherine harris one year. >> but you've got a situation where, you know, it is the midterm election and you are the opposition party and that's been a formula that has saved a lot of incumbents in the past who have been in that situation. the two most note al things in

those polls are, number one, gillum continues to lead. every poll i've seen of this matchup -- >> gillum has been ahead from -- >> from the beginning. every poll. and i think he's dragging nelson along. >> i think he is, too. >> i think nelson is in his draft and it's really helping nelson a lot. you saw that rally the other day, you had obama and gillum essentially bringing, you know, nelson along with them. >> when bill nelson goes to an ame church they're not standing up in the pews for bill nelson, but he did draw a great gubernatorial candidate for what he needs for his weak spot, i think you're right, i think gillum may drag him over the finish line. >> what happened to rick scott?

didn't he get a bump from the hurricane? >> they poll the question how did the corner handle the hurricane it was 61/21 support. the thought and hope among republicans was -- you remember chris christie in new jersey with superstorm sandy, that you would see a mini version of that. i don't see it in those numbers, no. >> i want to get heidi in here. the president visited florida yesterday where he leveled this criticism of democrat andrew gillum who is vying to be the state's first black governor. >> i will say this, andrew gillum is not equipped to be your governor. just not equipped. it's not for him. it's not for him. he knows it. he won't say it, but he knows it. we've got to keep this state great. you're going to make it even greater if you do ron and otherwise i'm telling you it's going to be problems like you never imagined. >> okay. it's a similar line of attack that he used last week against stacey abrams who is also looking to be georgia's first black governor. yesterday abrams responded. >> oprah is good, but the woman that she's supporting is not qualified to be the governor of georgia by any stretch of the imagination. i think brian is going to be a great governor of georgia, i think he will be a fantastic governor, he is totally qualified. she is not qualified to be the

governor of georgia. she is not qualified. >> he said you just simply weren't qualified to be governor. he didn't say why. how did you take that assessment? >> i find his assessments to be vapid and shallow. i am the most qualified candidate. i'm a business owner, a tax attorney who was trained at yale law school, i am a civic leader who helped register more than 200,000 georgians. i am a accomplished political leader who worked across the aisle to improve access to education, to transportation and i blocked the single largest tax increase in georgia history. there is no one more qualified standing for this office in georgia. >> she's not qualifiequalified. >> i immediately harken back to 1987 when i heard those words "not equipped" sound like something that al campana said

on "nightline" when he said that black players were very good, but they lacked certain essentials. i don't believe it's prejudice. i truly believe that they may not have some of the necessities to be, let's say, a field manager or a general manager. campanas was fired for saying that 30 years ago. the president of the united states said that this weekend. >> it's vile, putrid racism. that's what it is. it's not dog whistle. it's a claxon, it's a siren. coming up on "morning joe," at the top of the show we played you the president's optimistic tone when talking about the fight for the u.s. senate. some new poll numbers from key states show some pretty tight races. we're going to run through it next on "morning joe." building a better bank

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see the grinch in theaters by saying "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he. we're back now with new poll numbers on some other key senate races. in missouri the nbc news poll

shows claire mccaskill pulling into the lead. come on, claire 50% to josh hawley's 47%. slightly better for mccaskill than the tied race the poll found in august. >> there is no reason claire mccaskill should be within 15 points in any race. if this woman wins again in that state without todd aiken this time -- >> i'm obsessed with her. i love her. >> i was shocked when i saw her tied with him last week. if this is breaking claire's way, that's going to be one of the biggest democratic achievements of the night. >> there's two states that are very similar, missouri and indiana. in both of those states the trump/clinton margin was about the same, about a 20 point margin for trump in 2016 and in both of those states with mccaskill in missouri who republicans have looked at for the last six years and said she only won because of todd aiken and donnelly in indiana who republicans have looked at for the last six years and said, remember, he only won because richard murdoch the republican nominee had a todd aiken-like moment in that campaign. they were both thought to be fluke winners in 2012, put them up against more republican

candidates and they said we will take them out. our polling has shown donnelly ahead in indiana as well. >> if at the end of the night democrats survive in montana, missouri, west virginia, indiana, that's going to be as shocking as republicans winning in pennsylvania and wisconsin in the senate races in 2016. turning to arizona, republican pollster, the trafalgar group finds the democratic congressman -- >> congresswoman. >> kyrsten sinema ahead of martha mcsally. 50-47%. that's close. >> the tennessee u.s. senate race looked like it had been slipping away from testimonies. a surprising new poll from east tennessee state university conducted in late october found the republican house member marsha blackburn tied with the former very popular democratic governor, this of course, is what --

>> phil bredesen. >> political historians will call the taylor swift effect. 44% to 44%. you know, bredesen has done something really interesting, heidi. he has distanced himself from the national democratic party whenever he felt like distancing himself. >> like during -- for the kavanaugh hearings. >> for the kavanaugh hearings, the way they've been handling themselves nationally. he is uniquely independent. you don't usually hear somebody that's a member of a party as openly critical of the party, unless, of course, they're claire mccaskill and then she just calls some people in her own party crazy. >> right. well, you're seeing this in a number of races as well, joe, as i went around to different districts at the local level for house democrats who are running in these more conservative districts. that they are trying to distance themselves from the national party there.

they are, for instance, not at all shy about saying that they don't support nancy pelosi, which was the case when i visited virginia 7. so this should not be a race as far as tennessee is concerned. if bredesen pulls it out there, then i think we are truly looking at a wave election because republicans have already pretty much counted out a lot of these rust belt states where trump carried them, like pennsylvania, the governor's race there is pretty much gone. the governor's race in michigan is pretty much gone. so if we're moving into the republican rock ribbed territory here i think we are looking at a wave election to see it this close. again, like we said in the previous segment, it's hard to know how accurate this polling is because it does seem to swing on a day to day basis, but if bredesen pulls it out that's going to be pretty surprising.

coming up on "morning joe," one of the senate democrats on the ballot in tomorrow's midterms, wisconsin's tammy baldwin is standing by. how she feels about her race and her party's chances overall. [woman 1] this... [woman 2] ..this... [man 1] ...this is my body of proof. [man 2] proof of less joint pain... [woman 3] ...and clearer skin. [man 3] proof that i can fight psoriatic arthritis... [woman 4] ...with humira. [woman 5] humira targets and blocks a specific source of inflammation that contributes to both joint and skin symptoms.

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she authored the ban on assault weapons... pushed the desert protection act through congress, and steered billions of federal dollars to california projects such as subway construction and wildfire restoration." "she... played an important role in fighting off ...trump's efforts to kill the affordable care act." california news papers endorse dianne feinstein for us senate. california values senator dianne feinstein recently, more than $20 million has been spent in the race for superintendent of public instruction to attack my friend tony thurmond's record. well, i've worked with tony, and no one is more qualified to lead our state's schools. that's why tony thurmond is the only candidate endorsed by classroom teachers and the california democratic party. because tony will stand up to the donald trump-betsy devos agenda and has always protected our local public schools. join me in voting for tony thurmond. let's put our kids first.

you've seen it, antifa. they take the helmets off and the arm bands and you see these little arms. then they see the clubs in their hands. they're tough guys, right? where are the bikers for trump? where are they? >> i've got to say it's kind of crazy. just kind of crazy. >> president trump yesterday in georgia -- >> i don't think it's helping either, because if you look at the polls that are coming out -- >> wondering where the bikers for trump are in response to

armed thugs in the street. >> what does that even mean? >> he loves to talk about things that are controversial and inciting violence. >> did he not see what happened when mick jagger hired hell's angels at altamont? >> the immigration stuff, it's security. women are afraid, security. >> it's a very short step from that rhetoric to saying that i want some volunteer citizens to provide citizens at my rallies and to bring their weapons. that puts us spiraling into a terrible direction. >> during the campaign, he was again talking about violence, talking about beating people up, talking about i'll pay for your lawyer. he just a couple weeks ago bragging about a congressman talking about he loves a congressman that will throw a member of the press down. i'm just -- i'm betting that's not going to work. we shall see.

>> earlier we showed you the final nbc news marrist poll from florida. >> that's as tight as it gets. that's as big as it can get. >> that's likely voters. the senate race won't get any bigger. trust me, it's just not -- >> thank you. >> bill nelson ahead over outgoing republican governor rick scott. >> that would not look like that if it were not for gillum. >> andrew gillum is obviously getting a lot of excitement, but also a lot of voters that

wouldn't be going outvoting this year for bill nelson. >> that is exactly. this is going to be the single biggest question, of course, what does the electorate look like? the reality is it seems that andrew gillum has seen what the electorate looks like in florida. bill nelson was in trouble. there were a lot of people that went into this election cycle assuming that rick scott was going to be the next senator from florida. more than anything, andrew gillum running at the top of this ticket and getting progressives excited is changing that too. >> certainly in 2016 no message. but if you're in florida, you see those polls and they're coming after scott. it's about health care. it's about cutting medicaid, no medicaid expansion. it's about being against preexisting conditions. it is health care, health care,

health care. you can be james carville and go look at the caravan. no, people are looking at their son that's got a kppreexisting condition who's a diabetic and his medication is $2,000 a month. >> literally. >> we had somebody show us their medication. my child is a diabetidiabetic, $2,000 a month. they're not thinking about caravans. they're thinking of rick scott being really proud of attacking the affordable care act constantly. >> those are the co-pay voters. you go to cvs and stand in line and listen to the co-pay that many people have to throw in to get their prescriptions, it is astounding. >> when it was first passed it was very controversial, red scare and socialism. people have had obamacare now for a few years and they've had the protections of the program

for a few years and now republicans are campaigning on taking it away. >> let's go to wisconsin where that exactly is playing out. joining us now democratic senator tammy baldwin. thanks very much for being on the show with us this morning. >> good morning. >> i'm curious. is there any challenge to separating fact from fiction in terms of the health care for voters in your state? >> well, first of all, what you were describing in florida is exactly what i've been seeing in wisconsin, very strong concerns about all the multiple efforts on the part of the republicans and the trump administration to repeal the affordable care act and its protections for people with preexisting conditions as well as undermining it through administrative action and in court. and what we have seen is, i think, reflective of what we've seen elsewhere, that every republican candidate on the ticket has all of a sudden started proclaiming that they're

for protecting people with preexisting conditions with no evidence to be offered. in fact, my opponent as of yesterday was still saying she would be the deciding vote to repeal the affordable care act. but of course somehow she would take care of people with preexisting conditions. it doesn't stack up. and i think voters in wisconsin, health care voters in particular, have seen through these lies. >> senator, are you noticing that? are you noticing that somebody who may have voted against the affordable care act 54, 55 times, somebody that cheered on republican efforts to actually join lawsuits to get rid of preexisting conditions, are you seeing both in polling but also anecdotally when you talk to voters in wisconsin that they understand that these candidates are lying, that they actually have been enemies of people with preexisting conditions and have been trying to wipe out any efforts to require insurance companies to provide that care?

>> yes. and you know, in the case of my opponent and myself in our debates, i brought up at every opportunity the fact that she sided with insurance companies over wisconsin constituents when she voted to deny insurance coverage to people who needed oral chemotherapy. she voted to deny insurance coverage for deaf children who needed cochlear implants or hearing aids. she voted in the state legislature to not require insurance companies to cover mental health care. then she proclaims, of course i'm going to support people with preexisting conditions. the record doesn't bear it out. it really bears out something else that i think is deeply disturbing in this election cycle, which is siding with big powerful holoud interests over

wisconsinites. i've been the subject of $14 million of super pac attack ads over the course of this election. clearly they want somebody who's doing their bidding, not somebody who's fighting for the people who sent -- in my case, sent me to washington to protect them and advocate for them. >> senator baldwin, good to see you. your race is sort of -- let's say you're farther ahead of your republican opponent than the governor's race in your state of wisconsin. scott walker is in the fight of his political life. this is his third run for governor. of course, he also had that recall. what is it about -- what is going on in your home state of wisconsin that scott walker is in so much trouble? >> well, i think there's very similar issues playing out in the state races as we were just talking about in my senate race. people have discovered that the governor of wisconsin was the

lead with 19 other states in suing to have the affordable care act declared unconstitutional as well as specifically going after the protections for people with preexisting conditions. in addition, he's one of the many governors who failed to expand medicaid. tony evers, our democratic nominee, is pointing that out all the time. and i want a partner in the governor's office in wisconsin to help me extend health coverage to more and more wisconsinites, health coverage they can afford. >> senator tammy baldwin, thank you very much for being on the show this morning. up next it's billionaire versus billionaire in some of the nation's key races from florida to missouri and on issues from health care to homelessness. that's next on "morning joe." ♪ ♪ ♪

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it was environmentally contaminated. one of the biggest successes we had early on, was entering agreements with the epa on cleaning up the property. we're recycling over 98% of the products on site. the impact that this project will have on the community will be enormous. ♪ ♪ over the weekend former new york city mayor michael bloomberg launched a $5 million national advertising campaign encouraging voters to support democrats on tuesday. in the two-minute television ad, bloomberg speaks directly to camera standing before an american flag. in a statement to the "washington post," bloomberg says, quote, the country is deeply divided. the president and republicans

are fuelling that division. i'm unwilling to sit by and accept it. bloomberg has donated more than $110 million to democrats and democratic groups this groups t cycle. there's been a record-breaking $5.2 billion spent in this election cycle. forbes magazine is out with a list. the editor of course, randal lane, joins us now. also with us is the founding president of veotevoteo latino. our contributor, mike, who is literally jack scarborough's idol. he considers you shakespeare. >> he's the shakespeare -- >> love it. >> when you text joe, he runs to his father with the phone saying, mike lupico just tekxte

me. let's talk about a little bit we have tomorrow. maria, i want to start with you because a narrative will arise and in the lead-up to every election and it's usually wrong by the time the dust settles. >> shocking. >> so the narrative this year is latinos are staying at home. they're not as engaged as they should be engaged. considering the donald trump is called all hispanics breeders and his racism seems to be narrowly targeted towards dehumanizing hispanics. >> he kicked off his election, basically making the latinos the canary in the coal mine. as of yesterday, we saw a surge in latino participation. in 2014, we had roughly about 1

million latinos early voting. as of yesterday, 2 million have. in texas, which is the lowest propensity of participation, we saw a surge off the only in young vote but in the latino vote 200%. in texas, the youth vote and the latino vote are basically the same thing. >> when the mistake republicans made, casey, time and again, or democrats, i'm sorry, that every latino vote is a vote for the democratic party -- actually an extraordinary diverse community. >> very much so. >> you talk to a cuban-american in florida, they ain't voting democratic for the most part. actually latinos -- hispanics, very diverse. >> that's absolutely the case. honestly, politicians get themselves into trouble when they link them together. any person who is a member of that community can see right there it, you know, that person

is pandering to me. so it is something where -- and i think some of the data you have shows that democrats have fallen down on doing the leg work here. maybe it's because there is this assumption that the rhetoric is so inflammatory that how could latinos possibly not vote. >> you actually have to build infrastructure. as an example, when pete wilson -- he basically did the blueprint of the anti-immigrant movement. the unions went into california and poured in $40 million and said this is everything wilson said. that hasn't been the case in the latino community. we're seeing people organizing, mobilizing. we do voter registration year round. last week we passed our voter registration numbers by almost double. over 200,000 people. and in the states that matter. so florida, texas, arizona.

what we're seeing is also -- even feeling uncomfortable with what is happening. for the very first time, we see republicans cuban paying into the democratic party because they're ticked off they're not being respected. >> randal, tell us about the battle of the billionaires. you've got -- i mean, this is sorros versus koch. i mean, you just go down the list in every state, there seems to be -- >> eight years past and this is what we're getting. in every state, if you look at a lot of the races, you've got billionaires putting the money in. in florida, you have tom stiers almost $10 million behind gillum but desantis has almost $2 million behind pearlmutter. there is some good news for those who want some problem things solved. we look at every race at who's

running entrepreneurs. we have more veterans running. we also have more entrepreneurs running. 18% of people running this year are entrepreneurs. so this is a ray of hope -- >> you know what's interesting, those folks both want to go to the white house and you're not seeing that type of investment on the republican side. >> first thing on your list, this proposition c in san francisco, which is about homelessness, and has jack dorsey, ceo of twitter, pitted against other ceos. how is dorsey justifying being against this? >> well, the mayor is against this too. you have billionaire versus billionaire. a lot of them are democrats too. >> it would be a tax on the tech companies. >> that is correct. you have some tech ceo saying it's going to dissuade companies

from doing business in california. and others saying we have to do something. >> mike, you're in florida right now. we have seen over the past 24 hours polls breaking dramatically for democrats. we had an poll that had gillum and nelson up four. then while we were on the air, a quinnipiac poll came out that had both democrats up by seven. are we -- are we looking again at one of these moments? it's florida/florida/florida? >> i was thinking about tim last night. joe, i've been down here for a couple weeks. the tv commercials are like watching mud wrestling. and then the president comes on and said that gillum is unequipped to tbe the governor. i said yes, because he's running while black which sounds to be

to be a deal maker -- >> you're a sports guy. it sounded like he was channeling 1987 on "nightline." sounded identical that he's not, quote, equipped. >> joe, when you said that, all i've been thinking about it is sounds like exactly what al said that night to ted koppel. he was out of the baseball business, as you pointed out, the very next day. he was fired the next day after a long career with the dodgerings. but i'll tell you this, going to early voting places, it's not only an incredible diverse mix of america but i saw happy people in these lines. this is the most excited that i have seen voters in a long time. it was actually kind of life affirming to see what i've been seeing in this state. >> it is so exciting. my 10-year-old son having a life affirming reading experience, no

slam dunk. i'm telling you, seriously, he reads these books front to back and he's not alone. tell us about no slam dunk. >> joe, if you watch the nba, you know all of the time now, star players have to learn to play with other star players. so i just took it to the 12-year-old level. there's a flashy point guard named de niro who's like steph curry and my hero is a kid named wes davies and they have to figure it out with one basketball. the parallel track is wes' dad has come back from afghanistan and baseball is a way for him to reunite with his father who's suffering from posttraumatic stress. so there's a lot going on. as jack knows, these books are about loyalty and friendship and team work. i'm about to go on the road with this book and to go to talk to kids about reading after this

campaign is going to be kind of neat. >> it's going to be -- well, the book is no slam dunk. mike, thank you so much. and if you have a kid, i read the books myself when jack's not looking, they're amazing. what are you looking at? >> i'm trying to be optimistic. i'm looking for problem solvers. we're seeing that with entrepreneurs. we're seeing women. we're seeing veterans. so maybe we're looking for people, novel idea, might actually do something -- >> what are you looking at? >> i think there's been enthusiasm and translates to impact. we have highly gerrymandered districts. are we going to be able to bleed into the areas or less that? the women vote and the latino vote. >> i agree on women. as much as we said it, we can't say it enough as to how important that's going to be. i often think authenticity is

still underscoring all of this and this is really going to be an election cycle where we are going to see candidates who have never run before, people who looked up and said how did i get here, a country i'm living in? >> just looking at the polls, i'm going to see if they keep breaking the way they've been breaking the past 24 hours. but you don't know until they actually count the votes. >> that does it for us this morning. stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage right now. >> thanks, mika, thanks, joe. i'm stephanie ruhle with a lot to cover. early voting numbers are through the roof. that is a great stat. we've got our warriors out from coast to coast. >> recently, it's been the republican party that's delivering. >> just like when we put obama in office, the democrats supported, they know it's time again where we need democrats out here to