they were always afraid of this moment because anti-black racism, anti-latino racism is connected to anti-semitism violence. you tolerated it, ignored it and voted for it anyway, and you need to grapple with that reality. it's not necessarily me calling you a name, it's saying what you tolerated and put up with and what you were okay with. and i think that's an indictment of, you know, your choices. >> all right, we're going to pick this up tomorrow. that does it for our hour. mtp daily starts right now. hi, chuck. >> hi, nicole. seven hours is what our big board tells. seven hours until that new hampshire vote. i'll see you soon. thank you, nicole. well, if it's monday my election play list has one day more on

repeat. good evening, i'm chuck todd here at nbc news election headquarters in lovely new york city. the campaign trail is at current capacity. the current president, the former president, candidates galore, so we begin tonight with a question whether a democratic surge is for real and if it actually is happening, heading into the tomorrow. and we've got some peculiar new data points from our nbc news marest polling signaling there could be a democratic surge that's been building. but our wall street journal poll says not so fast. so we're going to dive into that with our pollsters in just a moment. another question is whether the president's amped up rhetoric is working. and he can expect a lot more of

it as he makes otherwise closing statement on the trail tonight. they're going to be in rush limbaugh's hometown. in that state contest claire mccaskill has opened up a 3 point lead, a surprising result to some, but it's all falling in line to other polling we've seen in missouri. ahead of missouri tonight the president stumped in ohio. >> a vote for democrats is a vote to bring this economic boom crashing to a sudden halt. they will try to raise your taxes, restore job killing regulations, shutdown your coal mines and your steel mills, that's what's going to happen. one of their very first projects will be a socialist take over of an american health care. you know that. they want america to be a giant sanctuary city for drug dealers,

predators, and bloodthirsty ms-13 killers. >> so is that rhetoric going to work? consider another key state, florida. democrats have the advantage of both statewide contests. andrew gillum leads by four according our nbc news marist polling. governor rick scot, now 8 points under water. it was 1 point above water. that decline happened amid the president's decision to barnstorm for him. he held two recent rallies and scott was him after spending months distancing himself from him. it happened after the pipe bomber and synagogue shooter. so that's the great experiment here that the president is

making, is his decision to throw himself into this going to work? i'm joined by tonight's panel. steve kornacki, maria theresa cumar, charlie sykes. steve, i'll let you kick off this conversation. i mean, it is -- i have talked to one republican strategist about this situation in florida and they said if rick scott doesn't have the trump base he can't win. and because of donald trump he can't win in the suburbs. >> it's a no lose situation. the other thing, by the way, that came in between his poll numbers in florida was the handling of the hurricane, and very positive reviews for scott and still the favorable rating went down. i think that issue with suburbs is if you believe that donald trump was ultimately able to win in 2016 because there was a fair number of sort of reluctant voters in the suburbs who don't like trumpism, don't like his

style but ultimately were persuaded maybe by the comey letter and maybe by the fact that trump was relatively quiet in the final days of that campaign, you're getting a very big contrast in the final days of 2018. there's one in georgia. remember in georgia last year -- and final poll has them ahead suddenly by two suddenly in that race. peat sessions' district. those individual race pollings are telling me those reluctant republicans are being turned off in the stretch. >> maria, one year ago this day, meaning 24 hours before virginia wept to polls we were having that conversation, boy gillaspie's decision to go with immigration, and ms-13, and this might work, and it was a huge landslide for virginia.

>> what's different from virginia that we're seeing in florida right now where is virginia had a huge slate of candidates that everyone was really enthusiastic. you're seeing a surge in youth vote. the parkland kids have not stopped, and you can attribute there are about 200,000 more young new voters. >> charlie, let me go back to your neighborhood of wisconsin. paul ryan's district, the immigration turn, does that help the republicans in the district there? >> no, and the three words that keep coming back to my mind are beautiful barbed wire. birthright citizenship. in the wake of the massacre in pittsburgh the president doubling down on the paranoia about the caravan. so paul ryan's on the phone with the president saying could you talk about the economy, about jobs, about wages?

and what has the president been doing? he's been president for two years and still pushing the anger and division. this may work in the senate map, but i think it's motivating the voters to come out in big numbers. >> by the way, i want to put up some numbers. we did ask in our nbc wall street journal poll how did the president handle the pipe bombing and synagogue shooting and he was under water in both instances, steve. we've heard this from some republicans as they lay the ground work to try to explain what happened in the last ten day, they believe that whatever kavanaugh effect had been helping them, that the pipe bombs and the president's handling of it may have taken ahold. >> there is a thelry that donald trump reaches a point where he does this sort of ultimate trump thing where it's very polarizing and that does sort of galvanize his base, but it also requires this second piece where he

brings the reluctant folks around and to do that he takes a step back. you remember in the last eight days of that campaign in 2016 they took his phone away. he was tweeting script at rallies about the economy and making this system work for you. >> one person pulled that off. kellyanne conway has never gotten enough credit for that. she was the trump whisperer on that. by the way, to sort of more -- and i'm trying to figure out here, are we seeing something is this just the noise of polls? but i want to bring up another poll. new hampshire is one of those places that crashes hard. wave crashed hard there in '06, did it again in' 10 and all of those things. and lo and behold look at this, the new hampshire governor -- it's rare that someone gets thrown out after one one two-year term. >> i think part of it is that

you are seeing them reenergized. but i think the fact you're seeing this wave of women coming into the fold, that is going to be the secret of the elections. whether or not they're going to come out and are they actually going to be voting for women candidates or just voting on general issues. >> it's gender and education. you have to ask yourself how does the president doubling down on the caravan and playing on the immigration issues and all of that, how does that play with women and college educated voters in these swing districts? and i think you're seeing that it's backfiring big time. and i think it's going to show up statewide in a lot of these states including the upper midwest. >> let's do a little definition of words here. you know, people i think hear the word wave and they assume democrats are going to win by 50 or they win all their races by a lot. but that isn't what happens in

ways, steve. >> there's 25 districts out there that are held by republicans right now that already voted for hillary clinton in 2016. so i think that's where the first line here, you're going to have heavy democratic -- >> you don't need a wave in those. >> right. the wave comes in when you start getting into trump country. there's the obama trump that's sort of the next tier. there's really three tiers because the third tier beyond that is the romney, trump, republican. i think when democrats can start venturing into those districts, and there's some indication they might be able to here. in chicago, romney, trump, final poll holtman down 6. >> nobody is going to say this a big year for democrats if republicans are going to show up for the poll. you were fired up saying it's because they haven't talked to us -- >> but they haven't. >> but literally the day after we saw polls showing a switch

kind of effect. >> right around that same time we also saw the dnc saying they were going to do a media blitz in spanish. i'm using texas as an example because texas has the lowest prepensety in the state when it comes to voting. you're seeing a 200% increase in the latino vote. so you are seeing almost double voting participation of early vote for latinos. my concerns is that polls are wonderful but they also suppress the vote because people get too comfortable when they don't need to. >> he was concerned that the president's rhetoric was serving as -- he speculated and he's not alone, david garcia, the democratic notny for the g

democratic -- >> during the mid-terms rick perry what he did, he deployed the national guard basically to protect the border. but a lot of the takes people saw were close to polling places. so it was subconscious, like i don't know if i want to go to vote. all those barbed wires, that sends a message to voters is it safe to go out, i live in a mixed status family. >> that's what he was talking about. mix voter households. >> keep your head down. and what he's not talking about, you know, at the grassroots in places like wisconsin and michigan and ohio, republican incumbents are being hammered on this health care issue. the pre-existing health care issue has them back on their heels, and they really don't have good answers for that. so at the moment, you know, when they're facing that onslaught, the president isn't providing any air cover, and he's rolling out the barbed wire, which again

is exactly the wrong imagery for the moment. >> what do we think the wednesday quarterbacking is going to look among the sort of hard core republican strategists who get paid figuring hoout howo elect republicans? >> they're going to be frustrated because trump is going to be out there trying to sell the senate. i have to say if it's going strongly the way we're beginning to think it might now, i think if you start getting into territory where democrats are picking up something like 40 house heats, i think the democrats come back into the picture. >> yes, we're two geographical maps, but it's not. it does eventually, you know, these things -- >> if we could even get close to bringing back the house, all the statehouses all of a sudden that come into apply even for the democrats for redistricting, that's a huge win. all of a sudden they fill the statehouse in texas and that becomes a play. that's huge. >> but the senate is really,

heavy, heavy lift. what i'm expecting on wednesday morning is a split screen. there'll be another network talking about the trump effect, picking up one seat, and you know they will be focusing on it. everyone will have a story, everyone can claim a win. >> what's a wave look like in wisconsin? >> well, a wave would liook lik in wisconsin but scott walker -- like the district north of milwaukee where glen groveman would normally be a 56% re-elect. but being hammered on the health care issue, if that district is in play, then you're going to see basically everybody go. >> you guys stick around. up ahead, are you wondering why national polls are heading in one direction while some

state polls are going another? we're glooing to try to answer e question. is there a more hidden republican sort of riptide that we need to be paying attention to? we'll break down the latest numbers next. (whooshing) - [narrator] for powerful suction, you need a shark. with two swappable batteries, at maximum suction the shark ion f80 has more run time than the dyson v10 absolute. or, choose the upright model for whole home cleaning

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california news papers endorse dianne feinstein for us senate. we're all under one roof now. congratulations. thank you. how many kids? my two. his three. along with two dogs and jake, our new parrot. that is quite the family. quite a lot of colleges to pay for though. a lot of colleges. you get any financial advice? yeah, but i'm pretty sure it's the same plan they sold me before. well your situation's totally changed now. right, right. how 'bout a plan that works for 5 kids, 2 dogs and jake over here? that would be great. that would be great. that okay with you, jake? get a portfolio that works for you now and as your needs change from td ameritrade investment management. welcome back. as we said at the beginning of the show with one day to go we've got some polling

peculiarities. on the question of which party should control congress, it means republicans have actually gained some ground in the last two weeks. voter enthusiasm which was a big edge for the democrats is basically tied for the two parties. bottom line is it is through the roof. that said, our final nbc news marist polls enflorida and missouri painting a rosier outlook for democrats than "the wall street journal." so what's going on? we start with a list of people who voted before in the nbc news state marist polling contacts people at random. it's possible sweeping up new voters or being a little optimistic about the new voters that show up. and we don't know which group is going to show up tomorrow. the traditional voters that show up all the time and or the new

voters that could be breaking our polling assumptions. it's unprecedented in this one, so i'm happy to be at a place where i have the luxury of doing it all. i'm joined by our bipartisan polling team. our democratic poller and our republican pollster. your own clients have come to you and have said what should i believe, the national not dynamics or what i think i'm seeing in the state. fred, you first. >> well, how about i give you the classic pollster answer which is both. it does show that the playing field is tilted to democrats. the 59% of voters who want a change in direction from donald trump, you know, more americans wanting to send a signal of opposition to donald trump than support. so that's a national context. as you know, chuck, and you've said many times, these are 435 individual house races, 33

individual senate races, governor's races. so i think believe the national numbers in terms of the broad dynamics, but really this is going to be a state by state, city by city election. >> bill, how do you answer the question that says, okay, we're having a record breaking turnout? i mean beyond numbers i don't think -- put it this way, i'm actually going to get rid of the a-word tomorrow night, apathy, because there isn't going to be any. maybe in wyoming. how do new voters make it into our likely voter model? >> easily. we interviewed every registered voter in the country, chuck. and our likely voter model looks at the history but if in fact they have an unusual level of interest, so there's no difference. we are looking at every voter in the country and likely voters can be a combination of previous vote history and very unique

levels of interest. and so there's no one we're missing in the nbc wall street journal survey. >> all right, let's dig into our poll here a little bit, and do something that we -- which is looking at the president's job rating and the generic ballot among the 100 seats that were -- that we decided are in the battle ground. the president's job rating in these lean or toss up seats from the cook report is 49-49, right down the middle. and the generic battle has democrats plus 3. these are all mostly republican districts. so a 49-49 job rating, does that give you confidence democrats are going do pick up a bunch of these, or does that make you nervous? >> look, i think if these are the classic toss up seats, and as you said, chuck, most of them, more of them are republican more than democratic, i think having the president's job rating a tick below 50%, but more importantly having

democrats with a 3 point edge that says, look, in what could be a lot of close elections, those numbers would tell me i think the win is at the back ofdomes headi ofdom ofdomes of democrats heading into tomorrow. >> bill, you have said you want to know presidential job approval pretty much more than any other number whether look at state or congressional district. explain why that number is so important to understanding a mid-term? >> well, because about 94% of people who approve of the president say they vote republican. 94% of the people who oppose him, vote against him. for republicans to have any serious shot in this election -- and we have trump at 46% in our poll. by the way, that's higher than any other president in the previous four off-year waves. if the president gets at 48% in the exit poll tomorrow, this becomes a very competitive poll

in the country, that's possible. because of those 95% on both sides, it's his job approval that makes the difference. republican won those swing seats by 14 points in 2014. they only won them by 3 points two years ago. if we're a margin of error it's not some unique i've never seen this before. republicans only carried those points by 2 points two years ago. >> what's the biggest warning sign-in our poll to the democrats, fred, in your opinion, and i want to ask you sort of the mirror image question, bill, on the other side. >> i guess the warning sign would be are president trump's job rating, and as bill said, is it going to be higher than 46% on the exit polls? and a lot of these key senate races not just in '18 but in past mid-terms the presidential

approvali approval rating is in the state, if you're pro-trump you vote republican. if you're anti-trump, you vote for the democrat. i think as a democratic pollster, that number plus also the i.d. spread between democrat and republican, those are the numbers i'll be watching. >> the missouri poll had the president's job rating at 50%. when i first saw that i went oh, that's good news for holly. but then it has mccaskill up and i thought oh, that's why it's a toss up race. what do you think republicans should be staring at in the wall street journal poll? >> it's all geography. we're running in too many open seats as republicans and too many seats heillary clinton carried. and you were exactly correct, people don't get it. a wave is not some massive margin. it's because white college educated women voted large numbers, they're voting very

democrat. and all of a sudden you start losing races by a point or two points and they're incredibly narrow but they tip to one party and you end up losing a chunk of seats. that's the nightmare scenario for republicans. >> there's been so much early voting part of us aren't sure, okay, how much vote got banked in the kavanaugh hang over, if you will, for the country. and how much was banked during the violence week and all of this stuff, but it's interesting to me, virginia and new hampshire, they don't have so much early voting. are they going to go to how things moved late, fred? >> we've had these discussions before. in 2016 the late voting states like pennsylvania, they broke late towards trump, told you a lot about what happened late. i think you hit the nail on the head, new hampshire and missouri, they do it the old-fashioned way, they vote the

election day. >> west virginia is an interesting state to me. trump carried it by massive margins. i'm not sure the republicans are going to win, but they also vote. they're an incredibly trump state and and how close that republican is going to get is another way of measuring. >> you guys got to hurry-up, get up here. the boiler room is waiting for you. coming up, we are tracking the biggest races with reporters fanned out coast to coast including in the three states that i think matter the most. i landed. i saw my leg did not look right. i was just finishing a ride. i felt this awful pain in my chest. i had a pe blood clot in my lung. i was scared. i had a dvt blood clot. having one really puts you in danger of having another. my doctor and i chose xarelto®. xarelto®. to help keep me protected. xarelto® is a latest-generation blood thinner that's...

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welcome back. in just about 12 hours most election day polls will be open. in some places it's going to be midnight tonight like new hampshire. we have correspondents across it country covering the races in states we're going to be watching the closest. i'm going to star in georgia where my friend katie tur is covering one of the closest races in the country. what are you seeing? >> yeah, and both presidents were out here this weekend stumping for their respective candidates. brian kemp had donald trump, he's a republican. and stacey abrams had president obama. listen, this is really tight

race. they're within a point of each other. there's literally a decimal point difference between the two of them in the most recent round of polling. but it's not just how tight it is but there's a lot of controversy here because there's a lot of national news making headlines. one there's robo calls that have been making the rounds. racist robo calls against stacey abrams who's running to be the first african-american governor of for any state, female of this country. 53,000 voter registrations on hold in the secretary of state's office. 730% of them are african-american. and there's a new investigation that the secretary of state just launched into the democrats, that they tried to hack into the voter rolls. but they didn't offer any evidence of that. and it's all compounded, chuck, as you know because the secretary of state is brian kemp, the same guy who is running for the republican --

running as the republican for governor here in georgia. so he's running as a republican and he oversees the election. >> and here's the best news for you all of you georgians if no one gets 50%, they get to do this for another month. imagine how much money and controversy this will feel like when it's the only game in town for a month, katie, that'll be something else. >> exactly. >> you might want to start renting a home there. let's go , and arizona senate while we probably aren't going to know the result tomorrow night, explain. >> reporter: exactly, it may not take a month, but it could be all the way up to nine to ten days. i just got off the phone with an official at the maricopa county recorder's office. they will not release the results of early ballots in

arizona in maricopa county that are turned in on election day until 5:00 p.m. local. why is this significant? 60% of the electorate in arizona is in maricopa county. about 10% of voters in maricopa county will bring their early ballots to the polling location. so about 100,000 votes will probably not be known by us until the beginning thursday at 5:00 p.m. and at that point they'll only begin to trickle them over the course of the next nine to ten days. if this is within 1.5 percentage points tomorrow night, chuck, i think we've got many days ahead of us. >> if the margin is essentially under i'd say about 70,000 it sounds like, you said about 100,000 votes. if the margin is under 70, then, yeah we could be here a while, right? vaughn hillyard in arizona. all right, let's go from the

west to the former gateway from the west, st. louis, missouri. republican josh holly, claire mccaskill locked in a tight race. the president is making his rounds with a cup of guests that's it's clearly not suburban america they're campaigning in. >> reporter: as youhension ment the president is coming here and this is really his final pitch ahead of tomorrow's election. and he's saying, one, he's trying to convince missouri voters that control of the senate could come down to this state. but josh holly like the president has also said this mid-term election is about security. one securing the borders but two securing president trump's victory. hawley said the democrats are

still mad about the last presidential election, so he told voters every single vote they've had in the last year they're going to see stripped away if they do not vote republican. here in missouri regardless of who people say they're voting for. >> and missouri, not an early voting state, so it's all about getting that energy to show up on actual election day, which is why the president's got shawn hannity and rush limbaugh as his special guests tonight. up ahead the key house races to watch tomorrow night. how to watch one state's house races that will tell you the answer to the riddle of other state's house races. that'll be at the big board next. >> tech: at safelite autoglass,

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we are back. let's fire up the big board where i'll be living tomorrow

night. all house seats are up for grabs. we should know which way the house is going to heading. and that answer should come from just watching one state with four key races, and it's virginia. joining me how to figure out house control is david wausman of of the cook political report. if you really need to go to bed by 9:00 p.m. tomorrow night, watch virginia and it will tell you the story. help me tell the story here of virginia. and we begin with virginia's got four seats from virginia's tenth, the second, the fifth. it's got something for everyone. the number one swing district in that area is the tenth, suburbs of washington. this is the one that features barbara comstock. if democrats aren't winning this one, it'll be a problem. but if they do win, what was it tell you? >> it tells us democrats are

going to do well in places like the suburbs. and if democrats aren't winning these districts, then they should put away the champagne and break out the hard liquor. >> we take you there to minneapolis. let's go to the other pure swing district of virginia, virginia beach. it's the second district there, features incumbent scott taylor. this is one of those democrats have to win if they want the majority. >> that's right. these are the bellwether suburbs. they're not the upper crust but the middle income suburbs that will tell you -- michigan eight district and lancing and the outer detroit suburbs, these are places trump won by only a handful of points but maybe not 50% of the vote. >> as you can see here it's sort of middle class suburbs as you've been calling them in this case between lancing and detroit. the next one in virginia is virginia seventh. it's gotten a lot of national attention. the initial tea party guy.

this one goes from northern virginia to -- it's a big map. >> that's right. and these are districts i would call urban rural divides. because democrats are getting out their urban vote but also hoping turnout is lower in these rural portions of. california 13 is a district i'd look at as well because that's greensboro but also north carolina. >> in a special year they could. >> this race is a culture clash between these two candidates. polar opposite personalities. >> the financial potential bellwether in virginia is the biggest stretch for democrats. it's virginia's fifth. they've caught a few breaks in this district in particular. it used to be a swing district, but then it got redrawn to protect it for republican, and lo and behold it's a battle ground. >> it is. and it's an open seat.

it's probably most famous for the fact the republican has been a big foot hobbyist on the side. >> be careful. that is not safe for work google. that's all i will tell you, just be careful for your google. >> that's right. if democrats are winning here, a district trump won by digits, it means they have to be very optimistic by some of the open seats trump won. florida's 15th district is an example of that. that's a place where we'll also get some early votes. if democrats are winning these, it'll be a big night. >> this was the heart of trump's victory in florida. he won in areas that didn't touch saltwater. that will say a lot about the trump coalition. >> and it's also the outer tampa suburbs. she has some appeal in -- county as well. >> you're the man that's in charge of getting this house call so don't mess it up. >> i'll try not to.

thanks, chuck. >> all eyes starting wednesday will be on what, 2020, and a bunch of democrats are getting their head start. how they're spending their last days of the 2018 mid-terms. t. and as if that wasn't bad enough, now your insurance won't replace it outright because of depreciation. if your insurance won't replace your car, what good is it? you'd be better off just taking your money and throwing it right into the harbor. i'm regret that. with new car replacement, if your brand-new car gets totaled, liberty mutual will pay the entire value plus depreciation. liberty mutual insurance. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ at fidelity, our online u.s. equity trades are just $4.95.

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potential 2020 democrats spent the campaign's final days. former vice president joe biden with campaign stops in pennsylvania and ohio over the weekend. obviously he believes this 2020 appeal is all about the midwest and those working class voters. senators cory booker and kamala harris campaigned in their home states. there's a lot of house seats in both california and new jersey that democrats need to win to get the majority. booker was with the senate colleague menendez as well. senators elizabeth warren and kristen gillibrand stumped for themselves, because they're both on the ballot in 2018. they hope to be on it ballot of 2020 as well. and then there's michael bloomberg that stresses his independence, his anger at the republican party, and his love for a new party. take a look. >> i've never been a

particularly partisan person. i've supported candidates from both sides, but at this point we must send a signal to republicans in washington that they have failed to lead, failed to find solutions and failed to bring us together. that's why i'm voting democratic. >> it's quite an interesting potential launch to his presidential bid. one democrat who says he will not be running in 2020 is texas senate candidate beto o'rourke. at least that's what he told reporters this morning in houston.

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glucerna®. shaquem get in here. take your razor, yup. alright, up and down, never side to side, shaquem. you got it? come on, get back. quem, you a second behind your brother, stay focused. can't nobody beat you, can't nobody beat you. hard work baby, it gonna pay off. you got this. with the one hundred and forty-first pick, the seattle seahawks select. alright, you got it, shaquem. alright, let me see. mr. president, what -- >> just take a look, all you have to do is go around, take a look what's happened over the years and you'll see. there are a lot of people, a lot of people in my opinion and based on proof. >> time now for the lid.

boy, i really hope this isn't what wednesday looks like. charlie, the reason i was saying that is i do have these fear there are going to be voters, could this fear that there are going to be voters, could be voters on one side in one race, could be voters on one side who will believe the vote is rigged or believe the vote wasn't fair. and my fear is the closer to the election, the more screaming there h be. do expect a lot of this? >> what we've seen is this rolling delegit mization of so many institutions. only 51% of americans have confidence in democracy, something like 37% have lost faith in democracy. of course, if the president feels that it's in his benefit to raise doubts about this election, he will do it. and we know that he's got a big enough echo chamber that enough

people will believe it. >> you trust tomorrow's vote? >> i think that's the biggest challenge, because i've been following very closely, the only thing we don't know is whether or not there is russian interference. that's the biggest thing. that is a concern. but i do -- >> what about access to the polls? >> access to the polls for young people, for military veterans who move around a lot, women who have changed their names since the last election, african-americans. the gutting of the american rotes rights act in 2016 ensured that -- what we need to do is make sure that we are participating and that this provides us an opportunity to modernize our electoral system. we node to do theed to do that. but this moment both sides started saying the elections are

l rigged -- >> it's now the closing issue of the race, and i happen to think it's possible that this is all going to backfire on kemp in a big way and it's going to change this conversation a little bit. but we'll see. that's the thing. fulton county and outside of atlanta, if you see a surge of not just turnout but democratic support there, then this whole issue of voter suppression could be seen as something that motivated democrats. >> they said that on my show sunday. it has gotten more people going really, you're going to disenfranchise me. i'm going to get there early. >> and there's a ripple effect if that happens. the 6th and 7th congressional districts there, that's where the surge for stacey abrams would be. >> you're also seeing it in north dakota. they're saying you cannot vote if you did not have an address which affects native americans.

they went home and started getting their i.d.s. >> and was it just a kocoincidee that democrats seem to do well on the reservations? >> voter integrity ought to be a nonpartisan issue, but it's become a weapon as everything is. >> a lot of people doing closing interviews. you've got to check out what donald trump, jr., how he's portraying his father in american politics right now. take a listen. >> donald trump is probably the disciplinarian parent that america has needed for a long time. okay? we need some of that. we can't just be told everything is great and fine and you're okay, and you're a winner, we give you a participation medal. so people don't like that he actually speaks straight and hard and says those things. >> tough love.

>> it's the most important thing we could have done. >> i believe that's kimberly guilfoyle with donald trump, jr. is that what america wanted, the disciplinarian parent? >> what america would have liked if he spanked don, junior more. i don't think that's what we want. we don't want the bad dad here, and i don't think that's a way of making the beautiful barbed wire somehow more attractive. >> i thought the way to reach out to college educated women is that? >> not that. >> my instinct was no, but it double-checking. >> the president really missed an opportunity. we're right now in a place where a lot of americans want new policies. and instead he doesn't have policies that we can bank on, and he does it in a way that people are getting hurt. the incidents of hate crimes has skyrocketed across communities, and that is dangerous. >> i have to pause it there.

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[ready forngs ] christmas? no, it's way too early to be annoyed by christmas. you just need some holiday spirit! that's it! this feud just went mobile. with xfinity xfi you get the best wifi experience at home. and with xfinity mobile, you get the best wireless coverage for your phone. ...you're about to find out! you don't even know where i live... hello! see the grinch in theaters by saying "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he. in case you missed it, we all have some big decisions to make tomorrow.

perhaps nowhere more so than florida. not only are they deciding on a governor and senator, they're voting on 12 proposed constitutional amendments. 12! and one in particular caught our attention. it's amendment number nine, a two-parter. it would ban offshore drilling in waters controlled by florida and vaping at indoor workplaces. we're not making this up. on the same ballot initiative. you have to vote yes or no on both. but can't vote to allow drilling and limit vaping or vice versa. you might think this makes no sense together, but hey, this is florida. florida is remarkably efficient. they may not be going far enough. we think you can combine -- if you can combine two amendments that have nothing to do with each other, let's combine all 12

of them. so let's present our streamline florida ballot question. do you agree to raise property tax exemptions on a new casino that restores voting rights to convicted felons that vap indoors, and make judges drill more ethically, forcing the college system to give high speed rail? that's all we have. "the beat with ari melber" starts right now. good evening. >> good evening, chuck. it feels a whole lot simpler. tonight, we have a very big show. this is our first-ever election eve on "the beat," and this is live pictures of the beginning of our coverage, msnbc, the vote, america's future. that is a live look at rockefeller center. and the historic ice rink out there right now. later tomorrow, you'll hear of all of your experts project the winners, and ultimately record the winners. that special election cover