your street and your apartment building, down your dorm rooms, wherever it is, wherever you are and knock on doors and get them out there to vote. you have to do this. >> all right. >> you have to trust that the american people agree with us, not the other side. and for the democratic strategists who are freaking out hearing me say this, you have had a nice run, god bless you. we're taking over now. thank you. >> just be careful when you're out there knocking on the doors in the apartment building. michael moore, thank you very much. >> yes, please. >> that is "all in" for this evening from dallas. "the rachel maddow show" starts right now. good evening, rachel. >> good evening, chris. i'm excited to see whose lawn michael moore ends up mowing next summer and whose snow he ends up shoveling this winter. >> the amount of organizers i know in my life both professionally and personally and the sort of granularity with which they target voters and run an operation, the thought of, you know, just going knocking on doors. but activism, civic percent vacation is good. go do it. >> you know what? when it's down to the last day

and you haven't done anything yet do, something. do. >> something. >> thanks, my friend. much appreciated. and thanks to you at home for joining us this hour. barack obama was elected president ten years ago last night. his victory speech at grant park in chicago in front of a quarter million people actually spanned the midnight hour. so that victory speech ended ten years ago today. ten years. and he, of course, was sworn into office in the midst of the collapse of the u.s. financial sector, in the most rapid contraction of the u.s. economy since the great depression, and he and his brand-new administration did what they could to try to stop the unfolding, the then unfolding worst economic disaster in a century. they weighed in directly to save the american auto industry. and then with big democratic majorities in the house and the senate that had been elected alongside president obama, they started a long, long, long

laborious process about trying to bring about the first reform of the american health care system since medicare and medicaid were created generations ago. from almost the outset that. >> took off the table the most progressive options for doing that, because they were trying as hard as they could to make it a bipartisan bill. they spent probably a year, more than they otherwise needed to, trying to accommodate republicans, to get republicans on board. but all republicans said no, and then in the very end, democrats passed it anyway, and conservative media and the republicans decided they would then preach all day long every single day that the reform of the health insurance system that the democrats had brought about was actually just a nice way of saying that obama was creating death squads to come kill your family, death squads, death panels. you will die because of obama and the democrats are coming to kill you and they're going to start with the elderly. that was the republican conservative messaging, and

conservative media messaging in particular on health reform. and then it was time to vote again. and in history, of course, the first congressional election after a new president is elected, the pendulum almost always swings back the other way, against the party of the president. and with a victory as big and as sweeping as obama and the democrats had had ten years ago tonight, obama won in 2008 by 8.5 million votes. he more than doubled mccain in the electoral college. democrats had already had a majority in congress before that election. they added another 21 seats that night. they went up to a super majority in the senate. when the pendulum had swung that far to the democrats in 2008, followed by two incredibly hard years thereafter, and one of the biggest policy lifts ever with health reform, in 2010 of the

midterm for obama, the pendulum swung back very, very hard. the democrats didn't just lose the house that year that. >> lost 63 seats in the house. they lost six senate seats. it was just brutal. but that shellacking didn't just emerge from the ether on election night itself on 2010. there were signs all through those first two obama years that it was coming. even though obama was sworn in january 2009 with a 67% approval rating, by the following month, by february 2009, there were little protests starting against him. and starting specifically against the stimulus bill that he got passed to try to stop the desperate and historic free fall of the u.s. economy. he was inaugurated january 20th. by february 16th, there were anti-obama protests in seattle and then protests in colorado and then in tampa and nashville and atlanta and little pitiful protests in d.c. and at first nobody called them

the tea party, but by april big, tax day 2009, just three months into the new administration, that's what they were calling them, tea party protesters. by the summer of 2009, members of congress were going home for the summer recess, and they were doing town halls. those town halls were all of the sudden filled with the raging anti-obamacare protesters. the whole political discussion in the country is about this resistance to the new administration. this movement that members of congress were facing at home and their districts every time they popped their heads up about anything. this activist tea party movement was really fueled by the conservative media. it gave a ton of energy to the conservative wing of the republican party. it led to republicans being primaried from the right. it also led to tons of republican energy for that first midterm election in 2010. there is no exact mirror image of that movement this time around in 2018, as we sit here on the eve of the first congressional election of barack

obama's successor as president. there is no left-wing tea party because the left and the right are different. but shortly after the birth of the trump administration, we also saw the birth of indivisible, focused on pressuring members of congress like the tea party did back in the early obama days. also swing left, directing activist energy almost as soon as trump was elected toward the house districts that would be most flipable in 2018, most flipable from republican to democrat. we got run for something, recruiting progressive candidates to run for office up and down the ballot. senate and congress all the way to zoning board and dogcatcher. we also got flipable, which focuses on state government races to try to undo the gerrymandering republicans did after 2010, which has given them an almost insurmountable structural damage for keeping control of congress. all of these groups, and a bunch more, were all founded by the time donald trump was inaugurated in january of last

year. they were founded to mobilize and channel the energy of people opposed to this new president in a constructive direction. toward concrete, achievable political aims. now as i say, the left and the right are not the same, you might have noticed. and the republicans really did get lucky -- as lucky as a party can possibly get in the senate map this year. the republicans are only defending one republican senator in a state that hillary clinton won, while democrats are defending 10 democratic senators from states that trump won. you cannot get more lucky than that in terms of the senate map. in addition to that, the republicans really did successfully gerrymander the house so aggressively after that 2010 election, that to win the how many times this year, democrats will have to win congressional votes by almost triple the margin that they would otherwise have to win by if that gerrymandering hadn't

happened. we're going have more on that coming up in the show tonight. but even with those factors in the republicans' favor, tonight on the eve of the midterm elections, to the extent that democrats really do now have a chance of flipping the house of representatives tomorrow, to the extent that democrats are fighting to win that majority on such a wide field across so many democrats that are currently held by republicans, you really do need to look at what those activist groups have done. they got nowhere near the press that the tea party movement got in 2010. but look at the effect of those groups that formed after trump's election. just look at just indivisible. we first talked about indivisible on this show on january 4th of last year. so a couple of weeks before trump's inauguration, before the women's marches, before any of that, we had noticed these very, very small protests cropping up. in fact, you might not even call them protests, just constituents showing up at the offices of the republican members of congress

to voice their concerns, like these women who showed up at the office of congressman bob goodlatte in roanoke, virginia. other people turned up at senator cory gardner's office in colorado. just ordinary citizens visiting their representatives, but they're being very deliberate about their strategy and getting the word out about what they're doing. we started following, that and we quickly realized that they were following this new online guide, the indivisible guide, which was drawn up by some former democratic congressional staffers you've never heard of, and they were putting this document together to give people very practical advise about how to learn from the tactical success of the tea party under president obama. it was detailed instructions about how to put effective pressure on your own member of congress to block the trump agenda. and, again, this thing started just as a google doc online. but by january 4th, when we had one of the authors of that guide, ezra levin on this show,

remember, this was two weeks before trump was inaugurated, we learned that hundreds of these groups had sprouted up around the done, and more wore forming literally as we spoke with mr. levin on the show. have you seen it direct response? you've got this posted online. are you seeing in terms of groups forming or other people using this work? >> it's phenomenal. i've got the say we've been blown away. we put up a google doc two and a half weeks ago. google immediately crashed. we put up a website so people had a way to download it. there have been over 600,000 page views. over 130,000 people who have downloaded the guide. but the really exciting thing is there are all these groups spreading out all aaye cross the country and popping up. we've had in the last 24 hours since we've been collecting groups that are trying to resist trump, 350 folks register. >> 350 groups? >> 350 groups. 350 groups all over the country. my phone buzzes every time a new

one goes in, and it's been buzzing since we're talking. what they look like is what the indivisible roanoke group looks like. they're in milwaukee. they're in florida. they're in new york, they're in california. they're in pennsylvania. we've covered just about every single state, and we have subscribers in literally every congressional district in the country. >> that night here on the show, again, weeks before trump was sworn in as president, there were 350 indivisible groups already formed around the country. by two days later, there were 1500 indivisible groups around the country. today we called ezra levin for a check-in. he told us there were 6,000 indivisible groups around the country. and no, they don't get the press of the tea party, but boy, have they been working busily. indivisible is notable for just that alone. they're broad spread across the country, being super practical, super focused. showing up at congressional offices and town halls everywhere, relentlessly, particularly around republican attempts to repeal obamacare last year.

and one result of that is that indivisible actually appears to have engineered a whole bunch of republican retirements from congress. members of congress who looked out the window every day and decide they'd didn't want to deal with this stuff from their own constituents. this is a local movement. people target only their own members of congress. indivisible groups targeting only their own members of congress. they held retirement parties outside republican lawmakers' offices. they made them retirement cakes. one part of the reason democrats have so much excitement about potentially winning the house tomorrow night is that in fact a whopping 40 republicans who might have run for reelection instead decide they'd did not want to run again in this climate. 40. would you? ♪ you retire, your situation's dire, we will soon replace you, never fear ♪ ♪ yes, we must report, now your time is short, i say you'll

retire this year ♪ >> those are members of the indivisible group in california's 49th district. they are all constituents of congressman darrell issa, and that was them standing out in the rain this past january, serenading congressman darrell issa, telling him this year you're going to retire. they made him a retirement cake. look! you'll wear a hawaiian shirt. you'll be so happy in your retirement. these guys held more than 50 weekly protests at darrell issa's offices. by the time they were singing there, they had already held more than 50 of them. they sort of deliberately cheerful, very jolly protests, even in the rain, doing everything they could be w a smile on their faces to get congressman isa to please quit. and he did. darrell issa quit. he is not running for reelection this year. here were members of that same indivisible group celebrating darrell issa's retirement earlier this year as soon as he

announced it with balloons and a cake and champagne, sure, why not. here are members of the indivisible group in ohio's 12th district high-fiving each other at their 38th straight weekly protest at congressman pat tiberi's office. the reason they're high-fiving there is because he announced his retirement. here is darrell issa's fellow republican ed royce. indivisible also targeted him with balloon-filled please retire parties, not so subtly suggesting he should retire. ed royce too is retiring. we saw this over and over again over the course of the last year. republican members of congress being relentlessly pushed and pressured not by national movements that were getting featured on television all the time and that were on the cover of magazines, but by being pressured by their own constituents who quietly organized to put pressure where they most could as individuals. republican members of congress being pressured by their own constituents to defy trump, to

explain themselves if they weren't, and to leave office if they couldn't. 40 house republicans have opted not to run for reelection this year. and that has created a giant set of what had been republican-held seats that are now open seats, which makes them obviously much riper for a democratic flip because there is no incumbent there holding on to the seat with all of the power of income be -- inincumbency to try to keep it. we saw indivisible giving them their big sendoffs. those retirements only expanded the long list of republican california house seats that are seen as possible democratic pickups tomorrow. there are now seven california republican-held congressional seats that the democrats think they might get tomorrow. a koch political report rates five of them as toss-ups which means they could go either way. the toss-ups include the seat ed royce just quit, plus walter,

dana rohrabacher. the seat that darrell issa quit, that's rated as a likely democratic pickup. that said, i should also mention that the seat held by republican congressman duncan hunter, that's still rated ed bd by ko lean republican seat. even though hunter is under federal indictment on 60 fraud and corruption charges. literally, he has been charged with 60 crimes. so presumably, that puts that one in reach for democrats, no matter how the district leans in general. so those seven seats are seen as on the bubble for potential democratic pickup tomorrow in the state of california. if democrats got all those seats in california, that would be almost a third of the total number of seats that the democrats need nationwide to win control of congress. and so here is another thing to know heading into tomorrow. i know it's just one state among 50, but it's going to become important national news tomorrow

that california polls do not close until 8:00 p.m. pacific time, which is 11:00 p.m. eastern time tomorrow night. people talk about it's going to be a late night tomorrow night, this is part of it. when it comes to the overall balance of power in washington, whose going to control congress, whether or not the trump administration is going to have any check in terms of hour in washington, there is a very real possibility that it's going to come down to california, to a seat here or a seat there in california. and that creates a very specific problem in terms of your stress levels these days, your schedule this week and those bags under your eyes like mine that we've all been worrying about. and that problem is the oh my god when will we know problem. polls close in california 8:00 p.m. pacific, 11:00 p.m. eastern tomorrow. but we very well may not know at 11:00 p.m. eastern. we may not know tomorrow night at all. california is notoriously, even proudly slow at counting the vote. when carol isa won reelection in 2016, when we he won what would

become his last term in congress, he won that election the monday after thanksgiving. 20 days after election day. because california counts that slow. and remember, after the 2016 presidential election, do you remember how hillary clinton's lead in the popular vote over donald trump just kept growing and growing every day for weeks after the election? it was like this incredibly ominous irony, because there is trump having won the election, having won the electoral college. but every day hillary clinton's lead in the popular vote got bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger. ultimately got up to almost three million votes. the incremental slowness with which we got that popular vote count after the 2016 presidential election, that was thanks largely to california, slowly but surely trotting its way through its ballots. we finally learned that clinton had beat trump by nearly three million votes when california's ballots were all counted and certified, and that was in

mid-december. that's just how they do it. so anything can happen. predictions are often wrong. polls sometimes go haywire, don't we all know it? but be alert to this specific possibility heading into this epic election that we are about to have tomorrow. this is politico.com. today their headline quote, if the house comes down to california, get ready to wait. quote, forget staying up all night to see who won congressional seat here is. strategists in campaign say it could take weeks to determine a victor in closely watched races in southern california. here is the president of the california voter foundation speaking to politico.com today. quote, elections are a one-month-long activity now in our state, and certifying the elections are a one-month activity. and it's not like they started a month early. no, it's a month starting tomorrow. okay. that's fine.

we will all stay perfectly calm and well hydrated. fine. we'll all be fine. how long is it really likely to take? joining us is jacob soboroff who has been standing in the room where the control of the house could be decided tomorrow. four key house races will be tabulated right where jacob stands in the registrar's headquarters in orange county, california. jacob, thank you so much for being with us. i am a california kid, and i grew up thinking of orange county as the bastion of the republican party and conservatism. now it seems like not onliable has the politics changed, but we all need to learn the technical part of orange county too. >> it's unbelievable, rachel. i don't think it's an exaggeration to say that especially if it goes late into tomorrow evening, this could be the most consequential election jurisdiction in the country, and that is very specifically because four of the seven toss-up races in california are actually in orange county. the 39th, the 45th, the 48th,

and the 49th will all be counted here. not only will they be counted, they've been being counted here for weeks, 29 days so far they've been doing early voting. what's happening right now, rachel, as a matter of fact, is these are early and absentee votes that are coming into this location in realtime. so you mentioned 30 days as a possibility. that's sort of the longest longest possibility coming up if it gets tight. but we can be talking about at least a day, at least a week, depending on the scenarios. it depends on the margin of votes when it all goes down tomorrow night. >> so jacob, they're counting absentee and early votes already. what happens in terms of the dligs between the day of votes too? if they're not done with all the votes that have come in already. >> that's such a good question. >> do they put that on pause? or how does that work? >> come with me. i got to show you something real quick. what's happening here. sorry, guys. i want to show rachel something real quick. they've been here all day.

these are the ballots that are flying in here realtime. 400,000 of them, almost 500,000 of them over the course of the last 29 dates. tomorrow, this process grinds to a halt. these things stop and then they count about 200,000 in person ballots that are tabulated. they're actually brought back here by the sheriff's department, the orange county sheriff's department. they're put into a pneumatic tube. they're on a chip. they're shot through a tube in the roof into the room back here where they're counted in person. you could see as many absentee votes come in after tomorrow as in person votes. you could have hundreds of thousands of votes cast in person tomorrow. this process stops, and you still have an additional couple 100,000 votes that will be coming in absentee and will have to be counted after the fact. again, tomorrow, starting tomorrow, you're going to have lawyers swarming this place. they told me six different law firms are coming into this building. you're going to have hundreds of lawyers in this building. it's the fifth largest election jurisdiction in the entire country. i don't think there is -- there may not be another election jurisdiction that has two toss-up districts in it, much

less four. neil kelly, the guy who is the registrar here has been on the job almost 15 years. he says he has never seen anything like it. the turnout is the level of a presidential. >> that's my final question to you, jacob. given the four toss-up districts in that one jurisdiction, given the experience and obviously the infrastructure that they've got there to deal with it, given the influx of lawyers that you're already hearing about, the prospect that those could be the last votes that decide the contest for the control of congress, do you feel like they are prepared for every eventuality? does it seem like a durable system? does it seem like they've got what they need in place? does it seem like if this becomes the national story over the next few days are, they ready for it? >> yeah. i think -- i get the sense that this guy is ready. one of the foremost election experts in the country is actually here at uc irvine.

he said he trusts neil kelly. he is a republican, but he says he has some of the highest integrity of any official in the country. and then there is foreign interference. neil kelly told me, not only does he sit on the homeland security's national security task force, he has worked closely over the last two years with the fbi, he told me straight-up, they have been scanned, probed by foreign government, including russia and china. he feels confident that despite the fact that that is happening here, that the election is going to be safe. the votes will be counted. they may not be counted quickly. we may be in for not just a long night, but a long week and maybe even a long month. he thinks all the votes should be count and everybody should feel confident in that fact. >> jacob soboroff reporting live from the very busy office that could decide who controls congress this time tomorrow. really appreciate you being there for news orange county, jacob. much appreciated my friend. >> you've got it, rachel. all right. we've got lots and lots of news

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on february 12th, 2013, president barack obama had a visitor. and he greeted her with open arms and a big bear hug. that visitor's name was desaline victor. she was 102. she had travelled from her home in miami, florida. she had traveled as a special guest as the president and the first lady. >> we should follow the example of a north miami woman named desalin victor. when desaline arrived at her polling place, she was told the wait to vote might be six hours. as time ticked by, her concern was not with her tired body or aching feet, but whether folks like her would get do have their say. hour after hour, a throng of people stayed in line to support her, because desaline is 102 years old. and they erupted in cheers when she finally put on the sticker

that read "i voted." [ applause ] that's desiline. >> desiline victor was born in 1910 in haiti. she became a citizen in 2005. in 2008, at the age of 97, she cast her first ever vote for barack obama. four years later in 2012, desiline victor arrived at her local library to vote again that time things were a little more difficult for folks all over the state. republicans in florida had just cut early voting days by nearly half. why did they do that? well we can see what the effect was, lines to vote that year were long.

desiline showed up on day one of early voting. she was told she night have to wait six hours to vote. she said okay, and then she waited online at the age of 102 for three hours. she stayed online until poll workers finally advised her she should try to come back later. she left and came back. finally that night she was able to cast her vote. she told the "miami herald," quote, i never voted in haiti. it wasn't safe. in this country have i the right to vote. in haiti i did not. having earned her citizenship and her right to vote in this country, ms. victor stood in line for hours on end to exercise that right. on state of the union night, republicans and democrats together stood up and applauded her determination to stay in line and vote no matter how long it took. she stayed in light. she got it done. she celebrated it later. when she got back to florida from our nation's capital, ms. victor was greeted at the airport by family and friends.

she smiled. she danced in the airport. and then a few weeks later, the north miami city council named a wing of the local library after her, the library where disiline victor had had to wait in line all those hours. it would now have her name on it. look, the desiline victor voting wing. a permanent reminder of what it means to vote in this country. what it sometimes takes to play your part in our democracy. desiline victor passed away last fall at the age of 106, leaving behind an example of joy and determination in citizenship, right? even when citizenship is hard. also leaving behind the wing of the library that was name in her honor. so yesterday in north miami that. >> voted a the desiline victor voting wing. it was the last day to vote early before tomorrow's election. this what it looked like at the north miami library yesterday

where desiline victor used to vote in the wing named after her now. the wait to vote at the desiline victor arm of the library yesterday was three hours long. the reason the lines got so long is the county ran out of some ballots forrer a few hours. by sunset, a line of more than 200 people snaked around the library, people just waiting. one voter who had waited three hours on that line told the miami heard, quote, i would have stayed in line eight hours if i had to. campaign workers for a democratic gubernatorial candidate andrew gillum handed out water and pizza to voters waiting in line. a local company provided head phones to help people pass the time. in tend, everybody who stayed in line yesterday got to vote in the desiline victor voting wing. it's easy to see why an hours' long wait would be discourage. it would be easy to get disgusted and quit. but seeing people willing to

wait to get that turn at the ballot box, it is one of the more heartwarming things about being an american. sometimes if you are called on to make that personal commitment, it's asking something of you as a citizen. it can even shade toward being fun. maybe there will be music. maybe there will be pizza. at least there will be your fellow americans and shared patriotism and the assurety that your vote is worth it, always. and you do not have to take my word for it. >> tech: at safelite autoglass,

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"look what she's accomplished... she authored the ban on assault weapons...

pushed the desert protection act through congress, and steered billions of federal dollars to california projects such as subway construction and wildfire restoration." "she... played an important role in fighting off ...trump's efforts to kill the affordable care act." california news papers endorse dianne feinstein for us senate. california values senator dianne feinstein own war room, don't call me i'm turning off my phone. nbc election coverage will start here at 6:00 p.m. tomorrow. i will also tell you, not because i want you to watch us, but i do, honestly, word of advice, there is good stuff right at the start. we're starting our special election coverage at 6:00. 6:00 is also when the very first

polls close throughout most of indiana and the eastern half of kentucky. so we're going to start to see real numbers coming in as soon as we start during the 6:00 eastern hour. now one of the very first races we expect to get numbers in for is this very high profile race for a kentucky house district that includes lexington. this seat is currently held bay three-term republican incumbent named andy barr. he is being challenged by democrat amy mcgrath. you may recognize her from her campaign announcement which focused on her role as the first female marine to fly in an f-18 into combat. it will be one of the very first things we see when the results start coming in tomorrow. what will happen in that race, we don't know. it's considered a toss-up. but one of the things we've been trying to get our heads around in general is how early we're going to have an idea of how things are going around the country there are high profile race, including the indiana senate race, including that

exciting kentucky house race. that stuff is going to happen right away. but substantively, when are we going to know which way the night is going overall? joining us to talk about some of the early returns, bellwether races we should be watching is patrick murray, president of the monmouth polling institute. mr. murray, it's great to have you with us tonight. thank you for being here. >> it's my pleasure, rachel. >> what do you think we should watch as early bellwethers? >> the kentucky race, we're not sure what that means, regardless of the outcome. at 7:00, virginia close. >> the kentucky race, you're saying it's interesting, but it won't necessarily point in one direction or other. >> right. it won't point us to what the story of the night is going to be. >> for the story of the night, you want the v races? >> i want the v races there are four races in virginia that will give us a lot of information. you have the one in northern virginia that barbara comstock is running for reelection there. most folks consider that a pickup for democrats already, if democrats don't pick up that, it means it's going to be a big night for republicans. but let's say the democrats pick up that. that's expected.

let's move to another district. let's move to -- >> he beat eric cantor in that rear. it includes some rural area, but a lot of urban areas right outside of richmond. abigail spanberger running a strong campaign there if she wins that race, that will give us a sense that these suburban districts, particularly along the east coast are likely to start turning blue, and that will put democrats on the path towards a majority, not necessarily all the way there we've got two more districts here too. >> let me ask you about that bratt/spanberg erase. i also get the sense that dave bratt has run a louisry race. >> right. >> you get a mix in there terms of the individual candidates and how they have done. based on the character of the district? >> that will give us a lot of information. if you can call this race early, before all the votes are counted, that's a suggestion that democrats are even outperforming in these suburban drink, okay. >> and then if they're going to do well in rural districts,

we're going to look down to virginia beach, scott taylor's district is in trouble there, the middle of the state district, the 5th which is from charlottesville down, that's an open race between -- right. >> so that will be an indication of whether democrats can have really expanded the field. >> okay. so those four races in virginia, that's a good case for those being bellwethers. there. >> a problem with virginia, though, because they take a little while to count their votes. we need to probably look to another state welcome, that be florida? >> i think it would be florida. florida counts pretty quickly. there is a bunch of things down there they're going to look at. >> how many republican-held seats do democrats consider to be in play? four? >> four that they think they might have a real possibility to do. and there are two different types of districts. so two at the southern end of the state starting from miami beach going all the way out to the keys. these are republican-held

districts that hillary clinton won between 16 and 20 points. one of the race, it's an open seat. it's democrats, this is donna shalala who is running for this thinking used to be ileana ros-lehtinen. >> she is stepping down. >> democrats. that would pick up this. >> well that. >> freaked out about donna shalala -- >> they knocked a 74-year-old former clinton cabinet member who doesn't speak spanish in a district that is 60% hispanic, right? and the republicans -- >> she is more charismatic than people give her credit for. >> that race seems to be -- the polling is indicating that she'll pick it up. the other race is probably the more interesting one because carlos curbelo stayed in that race. sort of moderate republican, has distanced himself from trump on some issues that will be that kind of bellwether districts, diverse districts -- i'm going to talk about southern california, that we might knotts know about for weeks. this is the kind of districts that will tell us about the mixed districts. then we go further north into

the state, we've got the 5th district there. that's -- excuse me, the 6th district. that's an open seat. that's ron desantis who is running for governor. >> he had to leave that seat in order to run for governor. >> so we have michael waltz and nancy soderbergh. there are so many names up for grabs. that is a working class white district. >> okay. >> in the middle of the state that will tell us whether the democrats are going to be able to do well in those types of districts. so florida will give us a little bit of a sense. they'll count early. we'll come back to virginia, and we'll see. but by that time, we'll probably know by 9:00, we'll probably know a good bit about virginia and florida that should give us a picture of what the night is going to be. >> so even if you cannot imagine what your next month is going to be like, even if you can't imagine what ten hours of election coverage are going to be like tomorrow night, you can definitely imagine the first couple of hours, and that gives awes pretty good bite sized way to approach it.

mr. murray, president of the monmouth polling district, we appreciate it. all right. we'll be right back. stay with us. goals and needs. some only call when they have something to sell. fisher calls regularly so you stay informed. and while some advisors are happy to earn commissions whether you do well or not. fisher investments fees are structured so we do better when you do better. maybe that's why most of our clients come from other money managers. fisher investments. clearly better money management. ♪ that's gillette clear gel. it goes on clear and keeps you fresh all day. and it doesn't leave white marks on your shirt. gillette clear gel antiperspirant.

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election, but if you add up all the votes people cast nationwide for a democratic member of congress versus all the votes people cast nationwide for a republican number of congress, you can get a national popular vote for congress. are the american people voting for a democrat to vote them in congress or a republican? if democrats nationwide come out on top on that number, and they almost certainly will, that will be the number on the left column there. so maybe democrats will win the overall congressional popular vote by two points or four points or 16 points or whatever. if the popular vote came in like that, well, then the middle column shows historically what you would expect that to translate to in terms of the number of seats in congress the democrats would be expected to gain. so if democrats win the popular vote for congress by two points historically you would expect that to translate into democrats picking up 19 new seats in the house. they win the national popular vote by four points, you expect them to win 23 seats in the house, and you go on down the line. but now look at the column on the right.

that shows not the historic gain that you'd expect, that shows the actual projected seat gain in the house for democrats based on how carved up the congressional maps are now to benefit republicans. so if you just start at the top there, if the democrats win the national popular vote by two points, historically speaking, you would expect that to result in democrats pick up 19 seats. but because the districts are drawn so aggressively now to favor republicans, instead of 19 seats, what democrats would actually pick up this year with that kind of a vote margin is more like five seats in the house. not 19, but of 5. and on down the line there are a couple of things to take away from this chart. one is republicans have stacked the deck for control of congress. that's what this is about. after the 2010 census and the 2010 elections, republicans won control of so many states all across the country they redrew the lines to benefit their party in the voting district.

they could win so much more easily. that's basically why the brennan center created this chart, to show how hard the republicans have made it for democrats to win seats in congress, even when they win more votes. how hard the republicans have tilted the playing field in their own favor. more votes. how hard the democrats have tilted the playing field in their favor. democrats only need 23 seats to win control of the house. that means democrats should only need a four point swing in the popular vote to win 23 seats. but because of the way the map is now, because how hard the playing field is tilted towards republican, that four point swing in the popular vote would only give them actually seven seats in grass. that's not enough. instead of how tilted the field is towards republicans democrats would need to win the popular vote tomorrow by between 10 and 11 points in order to pick up the seats they need to win in the house. this is why former president barack obama, former attorney general eric holder, keep talking about this as the one

most important thing they are now working on in politics. they want to try to unstack the deck so republicans no longer have this structural advantage that makes it almost impossible for democrats to win federal office. the other thing to take away from this chart is that now since we are on the eve of the election, we're trying to figure out if democrats can actually pull it off. can democrats win the popular vote for congress? big enough that can actually get those 23 seats? can they? well, here's the last four big national polls on this. yesterday's nbc news wall street journal poll has democrats up generically by 7 points. cnn poll has democrats up by 13. abc news "the washington post" has democrats up by 8. marist up by 9. those are the four big national polls. and the spread between those four big national polls the reason why there's no suspense what's going to happen tomorrow. if the brenb center is right how

injure manderred the house is right now, go to cnn poll and that has democrats winning the house by 13. then they would pull it off with a cushion. that's the kind of range we've been looking at. those are the kind of factors that are driving everyone's anticipation about what's happening tomorrow. anyone telling you they know what's going to happen tomorrow is not telling you the truth. there really is a whole range of possibilities even with the deck totally stacked in the republicans favor. 's mom's appo just got rescheduled - for today. amanda needs right at home. our customized care plans provide as much - or as little help - as her mom requires. whether it's a ride to the doctor or help around the house. oh, of course! tom, i am really sorry. i've gotta go.

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a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he. big night around here, i know. few things, election coverage starts tomorrow night here at 6:00 p.m. eastern. there actually is quite a bit of interesting stuff going to happen relatively early on. so you'll probably want to be here early on. that said you need to know we're going to be here all night long. i want to give you one incentive to stay with us late into tomorrow. brian williams and i both have really bad backs. so by the truly late hours, like the daylight hours we're going to be having like live chiropractic adjustments here on the set. also one other note, i wanted to let you know i'll be on the tonight show tonight with jimmy fallon. and i've got this podcast called bagman. first two episodes came out last

week. people seem to like it. i'm super grateful to those who have checked it out. tonight we're hosting like episode 3 like right now. episode 3 is up right this second. you can get it on the podcast app on your phone. you can also just go to msnbc.com/bagman and get it there for free. episode 3 i will tell you it's about a criminal politician who's under federal investigation and responds by attacking the department and the press and his base and republicans totally back him up on that. it is a true story from american history. episode 3 of bagman drops tonight. msnbc.com/bagman. okay, programming note over. we'll be right back. alexa, play weekend mix.

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tomorrow night's election coverage to help you keep track of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country. people up for re-election tomorrow night but who really might lose. this card has slots for the top five senators considered to be in the most trouble tomorrow and the top ten members of the house most likely to lose their seats. we consulted the data gurus at 5:38.com and you can play it out tomorrow night. if any of these incumbents get turfed out you just x out their face, whatever. trms bingo. who knows, you might even win a prize. that does it for us tonight. we'll see you again tomorrow at 6:00 p.m. eastern. vote tomorrow. be here with us tomorrow night. now it's time for the "last word" with lawrence o'donnell. good evening, lawrence. >> rachel, st