craig melvin picks up our coverage today. big day and a big message, get out, vote no matter who you vote for, do it, right? >> don't complain if you don't vote. hallie jackson, thank you, and thanks for sticking around. craig melvin at msnbc headquarters, and the 2018 midterms are finally upon us. it is judgment day. candidates in the most watched races of the season doing the one thing that they can do to win this morning, vote. just a few moments ago florida's two gubernatorial candidates casting their ballots. democrat andrew gillum, in the middle republican rick desantis. before that democrat and texas senate hopeful beto o'rourke. far left there, expected any moment two senate candidates, josh hawley of missouri and democrat phil bredesen of tennessee. white house sources are telling nbc news that president has cleared his schedule for the day to monitor results. he is also expected to be on the phone with republican allies

throughout the day on what will undoubtedly be a refer ren duen his first two years. democrats are expected to win the house. they need 23 to reclaim power in the lower chamber. republicans for their part fa r favored to hold on to a majority in the senate. they currently have 51 seats. democrats would need a net pickup of two seats to change that. everything is in flux. "new york times" poll watchers say democrats closed strong in the final days, massive turnout, also fuelling unpredictability if you will. plus, the close margins mean we may not know the results for days, perhaps even weeks in some cases. let's start on the ground with our nbc road warriors stationed at polls from coast to coast. rehema ellis is, morgan radford is in st. louis, missouri, and

chris jansing is in nashville, tennessee with the aforementioned phil bredesen. chris? >> reporter: they would have told you you are crazy, but you're looking at the former governor phil bredesen who is voting in the forest hills upscale neighborhood here in nashville. this has been stunning, a state that historically has very low voter turnout had 54% of the people here in this precinct voting early. they've smashed across the state all early voting records and both campaigns are suggesting that today's voting could help break even more records. understand, this is a state that donald trump won by 26 points. no democrat has won statewide office here in a dozen years, one of the deeply red states in america. but the last democrat to win statewide office here is the man

you're looking at here, phil bredesen who is governor. he became governor by being a very centrist moderate candidate. it's the same thing he's done here. a tremendous contrast with the woman who he was running against, marsha blackburn. this is not a place where they're used to being bombarded with ads. i was talking to voters today, asking them their impression of the race. almost to a person, the first thing they said is how nasty it is. they can't believe how many ads are on television. they go home in the afternoon and there is somebody else who has put a flyer in their door. most of them i've talked to have reacted badly to that. which doesn't necessarily mean they're voting for phil bredesen, but he has said he believes if he doesn't win here, and he told this to our kasie hunt, that it's going to be bau because of the democratic party

band. if he wins it's going to be because marsha blackburn has aligned herself so closely with president trump. he came here three times again, extraordinary, three visits for marsha blackburn in a state that he won by 26 points. just to give you an idea of how much interest there is in this race and how unusual it is, the state election board has spent weeks as we watch phil bredesen leaving here, has spent weeks beefing up its website so it doesn't crash. if we have time, i'd like for you as we follow him out to listen to what a couple of vo vote voters told us this morning as we talked to them about what their vote is for. take a listen. >> some people have called this the nastiest race in the country. >> i get fliers, multiple fliers every day from both sides, but more from the republican side. >> and that turned you off? >> absolutely. >> i have great concerns about the other candidate.

>> marsha blackburn? >> yes. i'm nfamiliar with her name. one is her type of advertising, which i think is tinged with racism. i think her stands seek to divide. >> reporter: and so we're walking out with phil bredesen. under state law, and this is true in many states, you cannot talk, a candidate cannot address the press until he's well away from the polls, so we can't ask him a question. he did just give us a wave, so we appreciate that. he's going to do a little gaggle here. he'll answer some questions. in the end i think the things to watch in addition to one of the most, biggest story lines we've seen around the country which are suburban women voters, which is something we've been talking to people about here, huge, one of the hugest changes in -- we're not very far from

vanderbilt, university. i talked to a professor from there this morning. she told me she has never in decades seen the kind of interest, enthusiasm to entire voting districts that the students can use and many of them are here. we're going to take a listen to what the governor has to say. >> chris, we'll come back to phil in a moment. let's get to the big senate race in missouri, claire mccaskill in the political fight for her life. she's 22 and 1. claire mccaskill has only lost once, but she's got a rough go at it here, and look at that line, morgan radford. >> reporter: craig, i have to tell you, there's a couple of interesting things about missouri voting. one, there's no straight ticket. there's also no early voting. that means everything is about today. this line has been wrapped around the inside of this building. you can't even see the end of it because it's where the building entrance is. it's been like this since the start of the day, and everyone i've talked to, republicans,

democrats say they haven't seen this level of enthusiasm around this midterm election. i want to introduce you to nick. we are live on the air, and we want to know have you seen anything like this before in terms of midterm excitement in missouri? >> no, especially not in this area. >> why do you think that is? >> the political climate, i think. >> what are some of the issues that your friends or neighbors are kind of reacting to? >> i would say health care, immigrati immigration, anything with the middle east. >> is it as much about these issues or is it in reaction to the president? are you also hearing some of that? >> probably both, maybe leaning more towards reaction to the president. >> is there any one thing that brought you and your whole family to the polls today? >> no, for us it was just showing them how it's an important right and it's something we should take very seriously. we want them to come in with us and be a part of it. >> you got the whole clan here. hey, guys. craig, this is the kind of enthusiasm we're hearing not only in missouri but also around the country. we did a recent nbc poll and 70% of the people we spoke to, both republican and democrat said

that they were extremely interested in this midterm election. and craig, we're talking double-digits in terms of a bump in enthusiasm among african-americans, latinos, young people. this is a big time, and 40% of people who gave us that poll, they said that this was a vote in disapproval of the president and 32% said their vote today would be a vote in approval of the president and his agenda hoping that it continues to patpass through. >> love to see it. democracy in action. let's get to georgia now. the race for governor there has been one of the nastiest this season. democrat stacey abrams in a close, close race with republican and georgia secretary of state brian kemp. there have been accusations of hacking, accusations of racism. rehema ellis is there in atlanta. what's the scene there, rehema? >> reporter: what i'm seeing is in terms of those accusations of voter suppression, it doesn't seem to be affecting voters

here. a little bit of lull in the activity. you know how you have that morning rush hour on the roads, we had a serious morning rush hour at this particular polling place. people were outside around the building before this polling place opened this morning, and then there were long lines insidement jo inside. john lewis, a famous congressman, democrat from this state. he voted just a short while ago, and it's no surprise that he let it be known that he was voting for the democratic candidate for governor in the state, and that is stacey abrams up against as you point out the republican secretary of state brian kemp, who is also running for the governor's office. stacey abrams, she voted last month in october, and she is out and about at various stops today. we're told that brian kemp is going to vote this afternoon around the 2:00 hour, and you can bet he's going to be talking to some voters as well. people are energized here, craig, and you can't say it enough. georgians have already shattered the early voting records in this state, more than 2 million people cast their ballots before

today. what's going to happen now? well, it all comes down to today in a race that is really neck in neck. what happens today will determine whether or not there will be a runoff, if no candidate gets that 50 plus one in this razor sharp race. they're going to have a runoff. we'll be back here talking about this next month around december 4th. >> how's the weather there? >> reporter: it's wet, and that was what's so surprising. early morning it was really raining hard. people came out. we've had some more rain, i think it's dampened the enthusiasm for just a moment, but it's expected to clear out. we're going to have maybe 69, 70 degrees today, and the expectation is we might see another rush in terms of the voting here. >> rehema ellis there with a weather report at the end there as well. let's just go south and get to florida now. that is where we find kerry sanders, home of two big races, 2020 implications for governor, andrew gillum versus former republican congressman ron

desantis. florida home to one of the most expensive senate races in the history of campaigning so far. democratic incumbent bill nelson versus governor rick scott there. road warrior kerry sanders is in tallahassee if i'm not mistaken. what's the mood there on the ground, kerry? >> reporter: there's been a lot of excitement. i happen to be at the polling location where the candidate for governor, mr. gillum, andrew gillum voted just a short time ago, and so we were here. there were endless cameras, and supporters who surrounded him as he came in with his family. you can see him walking in to vote here. it didn't take him long. there's not a particularly long line here, perhaps in part because 5.1 million floridians voted early, and then about 170 miles east from here in upon po vedra we had the republican candidate ron desantis walk in surrounded by voters there. he went in to vote. in both cases after each of them voted they came out and spoke to their supporters and to the assembled news reporters.

>> us winning tonight, i think, will send a message to mr. trump and mr. desantis as well that the politics of hatred and of division of separation that they've come to an end, at least in this election. >> i worked hard. i think withe really worked har. we did as much as can be done. let the chips fall where they may. >> reporter: and nbc marist poll indicates that likely voters that there is a 4-point lead for andrew gillum but just remember the breakdown in this state, republicans is 35.3% of registered voters are republicans. 37.2% are democrats, which means that the 26.6% of those non-party affiliate voters, those are the ones who are probably going to make the ultimate decision, and then the unknown question here is ron desantis who got that support from president trump who helped push him over the primary and

has had repeated visits in the state to help him with his campaign, the question is whether those people who were drawn to vote for donald trump two years ago, especially those voters who had not participated in elections before, are they going to get out or have they already gotten out early? are they participating, or are they sitting on the sidelines? craig. >> kerry sanders there, thank you. and again, desantis, of course, you know, fully embracing the president. there was that famous ad of him reading to his boy, for which he caught a little bit of flak. jonathan capehart, msnbc contributor, josh barro, also an msnbc contributor. they're going to hang out with us here for the next hour or so. nate cone, "new york times" said in the final days democrats picked up 3 points in their push in the final polls there. which party do you both believe finished stronger? >> if you look at those "new york times" polls it's clearly

the democrats. the "new york times" has done an imminence number of polls in the last couple of the months. the last wave produced really ugly results for democrats, losing for example the georgia sixth district, that's outside atlanta. there was that very high profile special election. the democrats lost by a few points. they're showing the democratic challenger who's never held elective office up three points on the republican incumbent. there's a district in chicago, the illinois 14th. a very republican area, they show a strong lead for the democratic challenger in that district as well. a lot of places that weren't even really supposed to be on the map for democrats not just showing competitive but showing leading in those races. if those polls are indicative of a late break. >> there is some concern inside the white house about races in three states, arizona, florida, and missouri. what states are you looking at specifically tonight, and which races in particular are you

considering bellwether? >> certainly florida because you've got -- everyone's focused on the governor's race because of andrew gillum, and he's up in the polls, but the good thing for senator bill nelson is that the people coming out for gillum, the hope is that that will drag him across, and his poll numbers have been better. we'll see if that's true. and i'm also looking at missouri, claire mccaskill as the correspondent said, she's won all but one of her elections, and she pulled it out the last time. we'll see if she pulls it out think time. and then a race no one's talking about but i'm focusing on simply because my husband's from north dakota, heidi heitkamp. we stopped talking about her for a good week, week and a half. we will see whether that last poll that came out, public poll that everyone talked about where she was done by twn by ten poin whether that is true.

full disclosure, my husband annuity last mon-- in the last the campaign went to work for senator heitkamp. from what he's been telling me at home is that the energy on the ground doesn't match the national mare -- >> that would fly in the face of most of the polling we've seen. >> remember, that's anecdotal. he's not a pollster or anything. he's out there knocking on doors and handing out literature, and that's what he's been telling me. >> north dakota's a weird state. it's the only state that doesn't have voter registrations. if there was going to be a state where the polls were way off, it would make sense for it to be north dakota. i still think senator heitkamp is probably going to lose, but she did beat her polls by several points last time around. >> there's been some talk about polling this time around and how far off the polls might be once again. what do you make of that? if you look at some of the early voting numbers, exceeding expectations, polling, do you think that's going to be one of

the story lines we're following tomorrow? >> i think polling has gotten a bad rap. it's generally been pretty accurate. frankly the last polls of the 2016 presidential election had hillary clinton up by three points. she won the popular vote by two points. the national polls were pretty accurate. there was a late break to trump at the end of the 2016 campaign. it's not that the polls were wrong it's that the voters were feeling differently. there were significant state polling errors especially in wisconsin. pollsters have learned some lesson about how they weight the polls. often when you conduct a poll you get too many highly educated voters. you need to make sure to weight that correctly. they didn't have the electorate right in places like wisconsin. that's why they didn't see trump coming. i think polls can always be off. you can have polling errors in either direction. i think polls has generally been fairly accurate. the problem is people have looked at the polls and looked for the result they wanted to see. i think this was true in the 2016 presidential election. it was especially true in brexit, a lot of the polls

showed brexit might win. afterwards there was this idea the polls hadn't warned them. >> your new article, you talk to the authors of this new book. they basically write about the effect of fear in our politics, the title of the piece is "trump is trying to scare us. here's why he's failing" what did you learn? >> debra and james fallows have been traveling the country in the last five years in james's propeller plane going to medium sized, small cities, big cities around the country and talking to people. they didn't enjoy what would come out of it when they went out on this journey but the thing that they came away with was that despite the national political discourse, how ugly and painful things are, on the ground when you leave the national narrative and go to the state and local level, there are real things happening. people are working together. there are hopeful stories. and so what i wanted to do with the podcast today in this piece

is while everyone's hitting refresh on their election results and being very anxious about the direction of the country tonight, what debra and james are trying to el tell us their book, "our towns" is that there is hope. people are moving forward. people are actually doing good things, and they're forgetting about washington and looking to themselves for the solutions. >> democrat beto o'rourke cast his ballot this morning in that closely watched texas senate race with ted cruz there. our road warrior garrett haake on the ground in el paso. >> reporter: coming up, we'll talk about why a senate race in a deep red state means so much to so many people. there's little rest for a single dad, and back pain made it hard to sleep and get up on time.

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we continue our election coverage with a look at the most expensive race this cycle. naturally it is in texas where everything is bigger, including campaigns. democratic challenger beto o'rourke versus incumbent texas republican ted cruz. garrett haake, road warrior following the o'rourke campaign. he is in el paso, literally hundreds of thousands more

republicans registered in the lone star state. beto o'rourke hasn't been ahead in any of the major polls so farment ov far. over the past few days, apparently this thing has narrowed. >> reporter: it seems to have, craig. democrats in texas have been looking for somebody and something to believe in for 25 years. they haven't won a statewide office in the lone star state since 1994, and beto o'rourke has given them that. ted cruz often says there's no race in the country with more contrast between the two candidates, and that is absolutely true in this case, and part of it is on policy. part of it is on style. but something about the democratic candidate and the excitement and the money he has raised, the excitement he has generated has really fired up democrats in this state and has given them a hope that perhaps, just perhaps this time could be different, and no one i have spoken to in texas over the last week and a half has more clearly crystalized that view than a woman name pam aguierre i spoke

to a few minutes ago, 77 years old, wheeled her oxygen tank down the street so she could be here to cast her vote for beto o'rour o'rourke, here's why. >> pamela who's 77 years old, who i noticed because e you had two key accessories, you had wheeled your oxygen tank out to vote and you're wearing your beto t-shirt. >> you want to see? >> reporter: i do. you were here. you told me this was very emotional for you. why? >> well, because i wasn't expecting it, and because we think he's pretty important and we're honored that he was here. >> reporter: why is he so important? >> because he represents everything that donald trump isn't. >> what will it feel like if you see him win this race tonight? >> everything. just everything. we want him to win, and we'll be

watching the tv tonight with him. he'll be someplace, but it will mean so much. it will mean that by, gosh, we all still have a chance to have a decent country the decent values with decent relationships with other people. >> reporter: craig, i've been doing this a little while. you ge just don't usually see that kind of emotion around a senate campaign. there's obviously something going on with this o'rourke campaign. will it be enough favoring republicans in the lone star state. we're just not going to know until tonight. >> we're going to talk about that o'rourke excitement in just a moment. really quickly, there's some reporting coming out about some border patrol agents conducting what's being described as a crowd control exercise near a latino neighborhood in el paso. what more do we know about that?

>> reporter: this is sort of an odd development. the border patrol says they are doing this crowd control exercise. they say it is part of their normal course of duty, simply an exercise they do to compare for any contingency. it is a predominantly hispanic neighborhood. we're in el paso, texas, it's close to the border on a railroad bridge. the aclu and other groups have said this reeks of voter intimidation to be doing any kind of large scale activity in a predominantly hispanic city like el paso. the border patrol says it's a normal course of business, it's far from polling places. beto o'rourke has been asked about it. he was mostly unconcerned about this when we spoke to him about it earlier today. i'm going to take a look at it myself and get a better idea of what kind of a scale of an operation it is we're talking about here. >> we'll let you do that. garrett haake in el paso, thank you my friend.

we'll be checking in with garrett throughout the course of the day. chuck todd says virginia house races, virginia house races are key to whether a blue wave is hitting the house or perhaps a potential tsunami. nbc road warrior tom costello live for us in henrico. >> reporter: good morning, we've got dave bratt who is up against abigail spanberger. dave bratt is a tea party republican and trump supporters. could spanberger upset this race? we'll have all the details coming up on the other side of the break. minimums and fees.

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the voter turnout in some locations far exceeding expectations and planning apparently.

nbc's anne thompson is in jamison, pennsylvania. we see the line behind you there, ann. what's the scene? >> reporter: it's pretty amazing, and these are just the a through l's here. i am told that the line here was all the way out to the parking lot, which is amazing considering it is a miserable day here in buccs county, pennsylvania. the voter enthusiasm here is very high in part because there is a congressional race that could help determine who controls the house after the election, and we have a first term republican who's being challenged by a democrat. the man who is running all of this is jim murray. he is the -- >> how are you? >> hi, it's nice to see you. you run a restaurant during your real life. is it as smooth going through here voting today? >> no, the restaurant's a little crazy. everyone's been really great here. we're running a tight ship. >> reporter: how much -- how big is the turnout today?

>> this is pretty huge. you know, i can only compare it to 2016. we've never had such a line, and the weather was nicer then. the weather is horrible today, and the line's been out the door. >> reporter: what about absentee ballots? there's no early voting in pennsylvania. did you have a higher interest in absentee ballots? >> absentee ballots is always the thing we worry about working the polling because we have to count them, and it is at least three to five times more this time around than it's ever been before. >> reporter: wow, so if you are in the a to l's and you have to go through this line, how long does it take? >> right now we're running 15 to 20 minutes from the end of this li line. >> reporter: that's not bad. >> how are people responding? >> everyone's been great. real good attitudes. smiling faces. it's nice. everyone seems to know each other. >> reporter: she says usually owe just waltz right through. not today. there's a line. that's actually a very good

thing for the nation. >> people do seem to be enjoying themselves, i will say that. lots of smiles. i've always enjoyed the communal aspect of voting. >> reporter: nothing better than election day. >> good to see you, my friend. anne thompson for us in pennsylvania. thank you. tom costello is in henrico, virginia. the polls have been open since 6:00 a.m. where you are there, tom. as you highlighted, it was dave brat, then house speaker eric cantor just a few years ago? >> reporter: that's right, so this is a critical district, a critical county because of the history here, right? we are on the western outskirts of richmond, and the talk has been if we are going to see suburban voters and young voters and women voters make a difference in this election, this could be one of those bellwether districts, and they tell me that at 6:00 a.m. they had 100 people lined up to go

inside, and that, they said, is far more than they've ever seen for a midterm election. i want to bring in real quickly one of the voters who just showed up. this is 30-year-old jess denham. she'd rather not say who she's voting for, but i am curious have the passions aft past few weeks, has all the rhetoric, the political climate make a difference for you? >> i think absolutely. as a young voter and as a woman, i think it's important to kind of get my voice heard, and i feel confident being a young woman voter that we're no longer in the minority. we're very much so in the majority. >> the trouble has been for democrats anyway, who often appeal to younger voters is that the younger voters haven't wanted to turn out for midterms. do you feel from maybe your, you know, your fellow young voters is there a sense that they are going to turn out this time? >> absolutely. i think a lot of my friends are very vocal about their political views as well as being very active in their political communities, and i have no doubt

that all of my friends are voting today. >> reporter: are you optimistic for the country, or what are your feelings about the general direction of the country? >> i think as my generation and demographic grows up, i feel very positive that we're head in the right direction right now. >>. >> reporter: thank you very much. go vote. thank you so much for taking time for us. they tell me a very good turnout at 6:00 a.m. it's now midday. people are working. they expect it to pick up again later in the day. they really had the weather, bad weather earlier today. we had torrential rain here, and the question was was that in any way a factor in maybe starting to tamper down the turnout mid-morning, but so far people are turning out again. craig, back to you. >> tom costello. thank you very much. . president trump for his part predicting an apocalypse in america if democrats take control of congress. will his midterm strategy of fear and falsehoods, will it work tonight? and tens of millions of dollars

are pouring into minnesota, but why? nbc's kevin tibbles is live in red wing, minnesota. alexa, play weekend mix. the new lincoln mkc. connecting the world inside, with the world outside. so you can move through both a little easier. introducing the well-connected 2019 lincoln mkc. discover.o. i like your card, but i'm absolutely not paying an annual fee. discover has no annual fees. really? yeah. we just don't believe in them. oh nice. you would not believe how long i've been rehearsing that. no annual fee on any card. only from discover.

one state getting some extra attention today, minnesota. for both republicans and democrats, the road to the house majority will run through that

state. it is home to five districts, count them, five considered to be among the most competitive, including minnesota's second district. that's where jason lewis is facing a challenge from angie craig. i'm joined from red wing, minnesota, by kevin tibbles. in the last week, as i understand it, you have visited half of that state's congressional districts. what have you found there? >> reporter: well, craig, yes, we have put a few road miles on the old rental car over the last week from duluth down to red wing, rochester yesterday, obviously minneapolis, st. paul area. and you know, minnesota really could be one of the bellwethers tonight here in the second as you just mentioned, there is a tight race, and up in the eighth as well. so minnesota really could be swinging in either direction this evening, and i just happen

to have one of the -- who has come out of the library today. the polls open about 7:00. barry sipplemeyer. he is a veteran of the navy, and i'm just wondering what your thoughts were this morning when you marked x? >> i just thought it was a good time to be voting and glad to be able to vote. >> there is an incumbent here, the incumbent is the republican. i'm just wondering are you supporting the republicans this time around, or are you going with the democrats? >> i'm going with the democrats. >> why would that be? >> i just think it's time for a change, and i think they're more level-headed than just way over aggressive like the republicans have been. >> now, are you referring to events in this particular district, the fact that there's been a lot of talk about building a border wall on the southern border from the republican side? there's been a lot of talk about health care coming from the democrat side, or are you

referring to presidential politics, and are you marking your x with that in mind? >> all of the above. i think the border wall and stuff is a bad idea, just walls don't work. i mean, berlin wall didn't work. china, great wall of china didn't work. i just think it's a bad idea. >> reporter: they tell us downstairs here in the library that voting has been very brisk since the doors opened this morning at 7:00. they're open here until 8:00 tonight. unlike pennsylvania that i just heard, it isn't pouring rain here, but it is kind of sprinkling a little bit. craig, on the other hand, it ain't snowing. >> that's true, that's true and in minnesota even this time of the year that's a win. kevin tibbles for us there in red wing. thank you. let's go to in terms of climate, the other end of the spectrum, arizona now. the senate race there, neck in neck, more than 1.5 million ballots have already been cast in that state. martha mcsally, kyrsten sinema

on the ballot. that is a race that a lot of folks will be watching tonight. vaughn hillyard there in arizona where the polls opened at 8:00 a.m. eastern so i guess roughly 45 minutes ago. is that right? oh, no, an hour and 45. >> reporter: it's okay, you mentioned the number of ballots that came in, about 75 to 80% of ballots from arizona voters have already been mailed in, and so when you're looking at this race, i just want to throw up a little graphic there with kind of the numbers we're looking at. in terms of the ballots that have already come in, republicans have about a 7.5 percentage point advantage, but to note back in 2014, 2010, 2006, they had a 12% advantage so that number has dropped significantly in this race. i want to talk about the other part of the electorate here. it's not just republican independent voters. one-third of the arizona voting electorate here are independent voters. i want to introduce you to one

of those individuals, kent butterman who we just met up here in prescott, arizona. this is what he just told us. are you registered to vote here? >> i am registered as an independent. >> reporter: how did you vote in the senate race? >> sinema. >> why? >> i just kind of followed her career. i think she talks across the aisle. i think that's an arizona tradition. john mccain did, goldwater did. all the people that have been great leaders in this state can work across the aisle, and i think that's important. >> had you considered martha mcsally at one point? >> until i saw the debate, and that kind of sealed the deal. >> reporter: this is what we are going to be talking about tonight, the suburban republican and independent voters and the extent to which they are willing to go and vote for the democrat in this race. donald trump won the state by just 3 percentage points two years ago. the senate race is up in 2020,

that would be john mccain's senate cease. if martha mcsally the republican in this race, she comes from a very swing district in southern arizona. she has long been known as very much kind of an independent voice of southern arizona. if she is not able to pull it off, it will be quite telling about where arizona is going politically into the future. >> vaughn hillyard there for us in prescott. thank you. president trump closing on his campaign appearances with a message of fear, fear of migrant caravans, along with some fears of illegal voting as well. i want to bring msnbc host of the hugh hewitt show. here with me again, jonathan capehart and josh barro as well. if republicans wake up tomorrow morning and they've lost the house and they have managed to hold on to a majority in the senate, who will they have to blame? >> well, i think they'll be relieved if that's what it is. they don't want to lose the

senate, obviously, craig. this is a very different election, with 36 million votes already cast. i mean, it's on its way to 105 million, which is about 20 million more than 2014, about 30 million less than last presidential election, and i'm having a difficult time modeling what's going on out there. if we wake up and the house has gone blue but the senate remains red and in fact, picks up north dakota, indiana, tennessee where the early voting in indiana and tennessee is very much favored republicans, just like in montana, and if they hang on in arizona where they have an 8% lead . >> the president and essentially begged him to stay on message and to talk about the roaring economy, the president as you know hasn't really done a when he will lot of that.

he spent a lot of time talking about these caravans, illegal voting. how much blame would the president or should the president get if they don't do well tonight? >> oh, i think this is an election about donald trump. it's clearly an election about brett kavanaugh but also an election about donald trump, and paul ryan got through because i had mike dewine on my radio show this morning. the cleveland rally yesterday was all about the economy. president trump talked about the economy at great length as he did in missouri later, so i think the speaker may have gotten through that that's your best closing argument, particularly in a state like missouri where there's no early voting. there's a dark contrast between mike dewine, and richard cordray, i think talking about the economy makes a lot of sense. i think that's what he closed with yesterday. >> john than, let's go back to georgia for a second, this race between kemp and stacey abrams. it has been especially nasty, and there's been a racial element to this race from the outset, and there was this tweet last night from kemp, the black

panther party is backing my opponent. re-tweet if you think abrams is too extreme for georgia. what have we seen in georgia, and do we think that is going to be in any way, shape, or form effective? >> that tweet, i was -- tweet, should not be shocked anymore by the overt racism that we have seen either from the president of the united states or republicans who are trying to win election. and that tweet that he sent out ranks up there not as bad as the horrible robocall, but they are pulling out the stops in georgia to try to keep stacy ab rey abr from winning the election, and it is going to be tough, and the key thing about the abrams' campaign before she announced that she was running, she ran all tof the traps and knew what the obstacles would be, including every particular stunt that brian kemp would pull to suppress the vote, keep people from coming out to vote, and

thereby suppressing people who might vote for her, but what has to happen tonight is that either candidate has to get 50 plus one and what we are seeing in georgia is what we are seeing in florida and arizona and all over the country. this election ultimately going to be about whether the american people like the message that is coming from the white house. this campaign, this entire election might be about your senator or the governor or the member of congress, but ultimately, when people go into the voting booth and whether they are voting democrat or republican, and if they are voting republican, they are saying that we are okay with the message coming from this party. we are okay with the president using racism against migrants coming are from central america, and we are okay with a gubernatorial candidate who is putting out tweets a that are clearly about inciting fear among white voters to keep them from voting for stacey abrams,

and so this is about the direction of the country and who we are as a people. and georgia tonight has an opportunity to say that the georgia of go"gone with the win is "gone with the wind." >> and you are looking to the midwest and why? >> i am looking to the midwest and also florida, because the map that president trump put together, and how he ran better than mitt romney is that he picked up florida and the industrial upper midwest states, and this is supposed to be the new republican coalition that trum had figured out a way to build up larger majorities among the noneducated white vote rs and things were looking terrible for the are republicans in the states. they should have been able to win the florida governor's case and they made a nominating roar in nominating ron desantis, and they did not want brian kemp as the candidate and in florida and kansas and it is possible that the three races will be lost

because they nominated the trumpian candidate and instead of the more established candidate. and in the suburbs, they will be pasted and losing five governorships in the west with in states that are mostly donald trump won two years ago and so the question was, you know, whatever it was that he did top appeal to voters who didn't really like hillary clinton in these states, and it is not only not translating, but there is appears to be a strong swing back to the democrat, and that has to make the president nervous about 2020, because if he wants the be re-elected, he can hold the states. he barely won michigan and did not win wisconsin or pennsylvania and it is looking like the preferred candidates in the governors and the senate races are going to lose. it is looking like a ugly electoral map for him in 2020 if the races come out as they are expected to come out tonight. >> i spent time in florida with andrew gillum and looking at o'rourke and stacey abrams and candidates for democrats who are

perhaps a little left of the center when you are looking at the party -- and no, you disagree with the assessment -- >> no, okay. >> no, i disagree because the great thing about abrams and gill lum and i have not paid as much attention to the o'rourke campaign, but all abrams and gill lum a gillum are doing is to run as democrats -- >> but there are some who have said that medicare for all is a bit much. >> we are auk taug about the slivers-- we are talking about it -- >> and if you are governor, you don't have to do it. so it is not a liability for him. >> and the key thing is that they are no longer afraid of saying, yeah, i'm a democrat, and this is what i have as my truth as stacey abrams said to me, i am standing in the truth, and my job is not to convince you change what you believe in, but convince you that i will work my butt off for you if you elect me governor, and she is

saying that in georgia and he is saying it in florida, and the authenticity bringing to the that is what has made them more attractive to the broad swath of people. >> and hugh, the headline tomorrow? what are we talking about? >> the republicans pick up three to four seats. and up in north dakota, donald trump recruited kevin kramer to run that seat. and jonathan, sorry for the husband there, but heidi is going to lose that kate, and in montana, the vote has gone decisive decisively for him, and i want to agree with jonathan that andrew gillum and stacey is not left of the party, because krysten sinema is left of the left. and i think that martha is going to win. and so keep an eye on the supreme court vacancy okccur, i

is another brett kavanaugh or neil gorsuch. >> and our team will start their live analysis of the midterm elections at 6:00 p.m. eastern. it is a long night for those two right here on msnbc. ♪ carla is living with metastatic breast cancer, which is breast cancer that has spread to other parts of her body. she's also taking prescription ibrance with an aromatase inhibitor, which is for postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive her2- metastatic breast cancer as the first hormonal based therapy. ibrance plus letrozole was significantly more effective at delaying disease progression versus letrozole. patients taking ibrance can develop low white blood cell counts, which may cause serious infections that can lead to death.

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that wraps up this special edition of msnbc live and i will

see you tomorrow morning on today. andrea mitchell reports starts right now. >> thank you, craig melvin. right now on "andrea mitchell e reports" decision day. today, the voters decide america's future and what message will they send? >> we will worry about history later, but theday, we are working to win. >> vote, vote, vote. and get out to vote and make your voice heard. if you want to protect florida's future, this is the chance to do it. >> texas is not going to be, it is not going to be defined by our fears. >> the referendum the president said even though he is not on the ballot, this election is about him. and the closing argument in one of the most divisive in modern american history with the attempt to stoke fears of an immigrant invasion. >> the democrats are inviting caravan after caravan and isn't that nice of illegal aliens to flood into our country, and overwhelm your