learn all you can to help protect yourself from a stroke. talk to your doctor about xarelto®. that does it for our hour. i'm nicolle wallace. i will be back in an hour alongside brian williams and rachel maddow. don't get up, stay and watch "mpt daily" daily with chuck. we'll have our first exit polls. hey, chuck. >> hi, nicolle. >> you're right there. >> hello! >> that's right. i've got exit polls. get out and go prep. see you in an hour. if it's tuesday, people are voting everywhere. as peggy just said, there's

nothing like hearing that music on the actual election itself. good evening, i'm chuck todd here on nbc news, election headquarters here at 30 rock. there's the ice rink, as you can see. and welcome to msnbc, special coverage of the 2018 midterms, the mini presidential. you've got a front row seat to history and to the. first national test of the trump presidency at the polls, amid an increasingly volatile, partisan and unpredictable political environment. it's all about the voters tonight. we're less than two hours away from the first statewide poll closings in key races. folks, we're just moments away from bringing you the first look at the nbc news national exit polls which should give us important information about the electorate, including their views of the president as they went to the poll. so buckle up, it will be historic. we just don't know why or how. democrats are expecting to flip the house. and republicans hope to add maybe a seat or two to their

senate majority. if they can get three, they can lock it in until 2022. guess what? anything seems to be possible tonight. we don't know which way the wind is truly blowing and how strong it's going but we're going to start seeing some clues very soon. in less than two hours, the last polls close in half a dozen states. most critically virginia, kentucky and indiana. virginia has a tough of con naries in the house coal mine if you will from every sim narrow from a blue tsunami to gop upset. another bellwether is kentucky's sixth congressional district. if democrats win back the house when they have the majority, they usually have districts that look like this one and they have had this lexington district in the past. this is one trump won by 16 but democrats are saying, just because we don't miss this tonight, doesn't mean we don't win the house. they're nervous about mcgrath the last 48 hours. and it could be an indication how they're faring in the 10 states trump won. hard to call it a blue waive

with joe donnelly. and watch where the polls close statewide at 7:30. could be a clear sign if republicans come ashore in virginia, and if it did, it will be more vulnerable to win that race. and there's a key senate race and marquee governor race that's become a proxy for 2020. and the first official flip from republican to democrat i think may happen in south florida tonight. polls also close in missouri at 8:00. another critical senate seat, the democrats must hold. and then there's tennessee, and that senate race where democrats can win for the first time in a generation. folks, our go-to election guru said he's got a nagging feeling a bigger-than-expected democratic wave is building. if you look at the last 72 hours, there was a lot of evidence to support that. if that's the case, keep an actual close eye on texas, believe it or not, where beta

o'rourke is the underdog, hoping to pick off ted cruz. and watch the senate, because if democrats pick off either one, that's a blue wave. on the other hand, after we still haven't called the house for the democrats around 10:00 p.m. eastern, that's another watch out moment. because it could mean it was a much better nice for the president and the red team. as i said, buckle up. voters are going to send a message to the presidents tonight and we're moments away from our first clues about what this message will be. let's check it out with our panel. the national political reporter from bloomberg nurz and peggy noonan, columnist at the "the wall street journal," and the director for the clinton campaign and obama white house. gentlemen, i will give you the first dibs on this. we've been in this situation before, about 5:04 two years ago. a lot of confidence. >> not triggering anything. >> i don't mean to do that at all. >> rainy election day, chuck, in new york. >> democrats are very caulky

rig -- cocky right now. >> you think so? i think all democrats are anxious. >> let me play for you nancy pelosi and you tell me whether this is anxious or cockiness. take a listen. >> this is a woman who knows politics. >> yes, i am. let me just say why i feel confident we will win, it's just a question of the size of victory. >> if democrats win the house today, are you confident you will be speaker? and does that hinge at all on the results of today? >> i'm not going to answer any questions. we'll talk tomorrow. but right now today every second is about winning this election, and that's what's important. >> i give her credit, being very smart there. don't count your speaker chickens before they hatch, that's for sure. but that's a very confident democratic leader. >> that is a very confident democratic leader. and that woman knows politics and i believe that is not -- that is not bravado. that is true confidence. >> paul ryan thinks it is too, by the way. >> and i think there's a common

wisdom and consensus that oh, my gosh, if something goes, it's going to be the house and it could blow big. >> and i think -- but i think democrats at large are anxious because there's so much understanding that you can't rely on polls. i think we have a secret hope nobody wants to voice that the blue wave can actually be bigger than expected but people are scared. >> and that's the thing, there was a concern right after '16, boy, did the trump voter not make it into likely voter screens? we go out of our way in the nbc news/"the wall street journal" poll to do that, which may be why we're in a more small conservative window of a seven-point likely voter model for instance. >> i do sense a lot of anxiety among democrats. i think they're still traumatized from two years ago. he with saw the limitations of trying to model an electorate when there's a black swan event like president trump. his being on the ballot created a different electorate.

him being in the white house i suppose will kree rate a different electorate. and the bellwether, kentucky six, very important of the blue wave. it leans nine points thanks to a democrat friendly year and mcgrath. they might be able to flip it. even if they come within one or two points, it will look like a good year. and another race to keep a close eye on is virginia's seventh district. it's the perfect indicator of the national mood. it was eric cantor's old district. it might turn blue in the era of the resistance if abigail stcan pull that off. >> there's a one of symbolism in that one district alone. dave brat. the tea party. you can write a whole book on that district. >> that's a good idea. this is a conservative republican attempting to survive as a member of congress in

northern virginia, which feels great antipathy to donald trump. >> by the way, i think she would be struggling if marco rubio was president, in fairness to her. that's a tough district. >> any republican but especially now in this climate i think it demonstrates whether or not you can survive with certain accomplishments and standing for certain things. >> that's the first one that house republican operatives i talked to expect to follow. they believe there's theoretically a path to holding the house, if they lose any more stock. >> there's some in new jersey to keep an eye on too, new jersey one, the democrat running against leonard lance. one thing to kentucky, and i'm with the dccc that you can lose kentucky and still win -- >> sure. >> but if you're picking up red in solidly blue states like new jersey, that tells you something different is happening because republicans used to be able to

win there. and if they lose in jersey one, new jersey three, i think that's -- >> and mccarthy and lance are the two republicans are worried about losing. if you look at a scenario, they need to hold on to both of those two. >> both of them. believe it or not the president seemed to indicate maybe, just maybe, he has to recalibrate things after these midterms, maybe. i'm curious what you think of these comments. this is the president earlier today with sinclair broadcasting. >> is there anything as you look back at your first almost two years that you regret, that you wish on you, that you can just take back and redo? >> well, there would be certain things. i'm not sure i want to reveal all of them. i would say tone. i would like to have a much softer tone. i feel to a certain extent i have no choice but maybe i do. and maybe i could have been softer from that standpoint. that would be something i would say that i'll be working on. >> what did you make of that? his tone actually may -- that's

the suburban problem i think more than anything. less policy, more tone. >> it's part of it but it's interesting. he uses the word softer. first of all, the president is conceding something. he may have made a mistake along the way, which is very surprising. >> stop the presses right now. stop the presses. >> we don't see him do that very much. he should have been, quote, softer he says. but he feels he had to be, he's implying, strong. he thinks that if he goes forward with presidential decisions and a presidential style and a presidential stature that is more what we're used to, it seems soft. do you know what i mean? i don't think it seems soft. i think it's just something people would love to see. another thing about him, he may be coming to terms with the fact people say trump doesn't ever pay any price for the unusual way in which he proceeds through his presidency. that guy pays a price every day, and he may pay a big price

tonight. when you haven't gotten two years of prosperity and relative peace, no new wars, and he hasn't won over independents, and he hasn't embraced centrists and they're not all with him, that is the price he pays constantly. >> by the way, that's the key to whether that's a wave tonight, it's independent voters. >> yes. >> that is in florida, everything's been dead even on the partisan scale but everybody's wondering, polls say independents will break towards the democrats in places like florida, maybe eight to ten points. place like arizona could be 20. depends what it is. that's how a good night becomes a great night for democrats. >> the pollsters working on the democratic race where's trump has been coming to states and also with him pushing on immigration and focusing on the caravan that it's a really big turnoff to independents. and it's interesting often when if a president -- he's fully thrown himself into this midterm, right? it's not like he's hands off at all. he said this midterm is about

me. a lot of times you see when that happens, the democrat will run to the center or try to moderate their -- they're views to appeal to republican voters, and you don't feel like -- no democratic candidate has modulated what they've said because trump has come to their state. they don't seem to feel the need do that. they're just -- it is -- because he's not doing anything that's actually appealing to the independent voter. >> can i confess i'm skeptical of those remarks for president trump. if there's one thing he's not known for is pivoting to a softer tone and sticking to it. he will do it in fleeting moments but it usually lasts hours or a day or two. he is who he is. he's gotten to where he is by being that person and he's not going to change. i think this election, the way it turns out, will be a referendum on him because he made it so. >> i hi his comment is just a signal that he understands he's paying a price now. it doesn't mean he will change his style. >> the two things that will

juxtapose this election is whether health care will be the cause of a blue wave and whether immigration will be his red barrier, especially in the senate. >> again, i know, a whole pile here, you're not supposed to open the gifts early. we agree we will wait until after the break, but let me ask you this, jim, on this issue of the first issue that house democrats proposed, that has to be on pre-existing conditions, doesn't it? if it's not health care, what was the point of all of that spending? >> right. i think it has to be on health care and they have to -- you know, congress has not been doing its job, it's not been functioning for a very long time. so there is a lot of oversight that needs to be done. there's legislative that needs to be done. i think the democrats have to go in and act ask if this is a functioning arm of our republican, and be very aggressive in coming forward with an agenda, even if you think the senate will not act on

it, they need to model what that looks like for congress to do its job. the true health of our democratic institutions is at stake. >> irony, lisa hill, the irony is if this goes the way -- the way it looks pre-election, the remaining house republicans are going to be trumpy. they're going to be the freedom caucus, it isn't going to be the moderates. >> right, if the republicans get swept out of the house, the people that will lose their seats are the moderates and people that deal with the center and the freedom caucus will expand its share of the caucus. they will have more clout. the idea the republicans will move to the center if they lose the house is completely wrong. >> no, the president will be more aligned with the republicans who are left, and i think he will love having a democratic house to tell you the truth. i understand the suffering part, but, boy, he's going to try to use them as a foil to set things up for 2020. i do think it. >> and tax returns is probably

something he's not looking forward to if that happens. anyway, jen, peggy, we have to go to break. i will open up the box. steve kornacki's going to bring christmas here in a second. we're just getting started with the special election night edition of "mpt daily." just remember the first wave is the first wave. steve kornacki's big board. we will get the first look at what voters and key states are saying about the president and two political parties next.

welcome back. look, steve and i have opened our christmas gifts. we're going to technologically figure it out in a few minutes but we have the first round of national exit poll data. of course, these numbers won't tell us definitive votes on who's winning where but they shed lights on what voters were thinking when they went to the polls and what they were thinking when they cast the ballots. my pal steve core nakornacki's . so many numbers. we crashed the people. they're working their tail off. let's get to the big one here, presidential job rating is at 46%, 46% is at the danger zone. republican pollster speculated maybe it will go up a point or two and become a competitive night. the national exit poll shows -- >> 44, 2 points lower. >> so 44 approval, 54

disapproval. and also when you break it down, strongly disapprove sits at 47%. >> let's put this in a little perspective. i believe 1996 bill clinton had an 84% job rating and in 2010 barack obama had a 47% job rating. this would put him below both of them, and i'm thinking approximately 50 and 60-seat loss respectively. >> i think republicans this year, and this is rough, the relation between the approval rating and exact number of seats but i think republicans throughout the year were thinking get it to at least 45, in an ideal world 46, 47, and then you're in fighting chance territory. 44, i will put it this way, 44 is a touch lower, a couple touches lower they were talking about this year. although it is a little higher than it was around labor day. but it's not in the zone i think they were hoping it would be today. >> here's another thing, the electorate, the makeup of the electorate ethnically. this is a very familiar electorate to me. it was the presidential

electorate in 2008, that was 72% white and 28% nonwhite. that is what this electorate is, which would make it the least wide midterm electorate i think ever. >> and that's fascinating too. because a presidential year with the first african-american candidate nominee in presidential history in a midterm election, that's one of the trends we have been talking about, are democrats going to be able to bring that out? >> another thing on the national exit poll that jumped out at me the favorable ratings for the two big parties. 50 favorable, 46 unfavorable. in the republican party, 43% favorable, 54% unfavorable. plus four for the democrats. minus 11 for the republicans. >> and that is -- sometimes it's good to be the opposition party, isn't it? you can function as multiple things to multiple people. you can be sometimes just the protest vehicle. you can be not the governing party, not the ruling party. sometimes if you're the opposition party and control

nothing, that could be good enough. >> all right. we will go through states and job ratings. georgia, trump job, 51 approve, 47 disapprove. boy, that's -- talk about right down the middle. that tells us this georgia governor's race is going to be close. >> and the wild card in georgia, of course, 50% runoff threshold there too. >> in this case what's interesting here according to the exit poll, stacey abrams is winning a larger share of the disapprove than brian kemp is winning of the trump approve. just a little tea leave there as we move on. let's move to missouri. the trump job rating, ready for this one -- >> what is it? >> 50 approve, 49 -- okay. why do i have a feeling you and i lr talking a lot about which counties have not yet reported in the senate race? >> it's funny, missouri was looking like the perfect thing to a perfect tie in the polling to all of the senate races out there. our final poll had a slight edge to clear mccaskill.

missouri is one of the states where the democratic vote is clustered in very few counties. the rest of the state is so yoef overwhelming republican. >> i have one more to surprise people, the state of florida. trump job rating, 51% approve, 48% disapprove. much higher than we have seen in any other from poll. >> that is surprising and you've got the republican candidate for governor there who has tethered himself to trump more closely than most other candidates out there this year. to see trump at 51% there, at least right now at 5:00, remember these numbers can change as the night goes along. >> but that would be if you're a republican in florida, those make you feel like okay, maybe it's not a total -- >> the final polls have not been looking great for republicans. >> steve, we will reboot. >> we'll get this going. >> but we're having a good chat. we will check back with steve later in the show you. more on these exit polls. up ahead rnc and dnc chairs' strategies.

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talk to your doctor about xarelto®. one of the big questions of tonight that might be resolved tonight, which was the better political bet, playing to the base or playing to the middle? for democrats, progressive democrats like gillum or moderate ones? for president trump, it's been

all about the base. will this message help or hurt the party with the economy flourishing? we will ask the rnc chair ronna mcdaniel, and she joins me live in a few minutes but first let's talk to the democratic side of things, dnc chair tom perez. welcome back to the show. >> always good to be with you, chuck. >> you've heard the initial exit polls. we have with a net positive rating for the democratic party, net negative rating for the republican party. i know you have cautious optimism. does this give you less cautious as you're hearing these numbers? >> we're sprinting to the finish line. any time i see exit polls and the polls are still open, my reaction is to say, first of all, anyone watching this who hasn't voted yet, get out there and vote. because exit polls don't mean anything. it's the final vote that matters. i have been hurting by a number of things, chuck. i understand there are so many races that are going to be razor thin.

in ohio today, for instance, by 2:00 in hamilton county and in cuyahoga county, so that's cincinnati and cleveland, they had already exceeded their 2014 totals. so we see that turnout very, very good. same thing in madison, wisconsin. they're actually looking at perhaps 2016 turnout levels. and nevada, you know the formula in nevada, you bank a lot of votes, an early vote, and that's what we did. and you run up the score in clark county, which is las vegas, and you hold your own in the reno area and we've been able to do that so far. but there's a long way to go. i am hurting by the fact that the exit polling confirms what our door knocking as confirmed, health care, health care, health care for so many people. and that's been on people's minds. and i think that is an important part of our victory today. >> it's interesting tonight, i'm watching -- to see where the democrats are headed sort of

ideologically, they're sort of -- there are two sets of candidates that i'm watching tonight. on the progressive end it's beta owe work, andrew gillum and stacey abrams. on the centrist moderate end, phil claire ston, claire mccaskill. those have run three different races from each other. three running the center, three boldly progressive. if one side wins decisively more so than the other side, should that be a message democrats take nationally? progressivism can work in democratic states, do it, and if it doesn't work, no, no, no, hug the center. >> your question reminds me of something ted kennedy said to me once when i was working for him. he said if somebody asks you what wing of the party you're from, tell him you're from the accomplishments wing of the democratic party because you want to get stuff done. when i look at either andrew

gillum or kyrstin cinema or any candidate, i mean, gretchen whitmer i think is supposed to win in michigan. these are all good democrats who want to make sure people have access to quality health care. they want to make sure our children's education is -- gives them that ability to punch their ticket to the middle class. as you may recall in arizona, there was a prairie fire because of the republican failure to invest in public education. and i think that common denominator is really, really critical across all of these states. you see it in georgia. you see it in florida, where health care and education are the issues that come up time and time again. people understand climate. it's not simply one wing of the democratic party that understands climate. we all understand climate change is very real. and we need to address it. and so i see actually what unites us far outweighs what our differences are. and i think the connective

tissue, chuck, for all of these candidates, and it's remarkable how many states we're competing in because we've become a 50-state party again. that connective tissue is people want leaders to move the ball forward. they want them to make progress on the things that keep them up at night. that's what we're fighting for, whether it's health care, education, and the likes. >> speaking of keeping me up tonight, everything's going to be keeping my up tonight. >> amen to that. >> quickly, are you hear through 2020? do you plan on staying with the dnc through 2020? >> i have a four-year term. that's what we are going to do. >> there we go. tom perez, put on a polt t of coffee and enjoy your all-nighter. let's go to the other side of the aisle where they have pots of coffee on i believe as well. madam chairwoman, ronna mcdaniel. >> not coffee here but a lot of diet coke. >> fair enough. cold, carbonated caffeine. >> exactly.

>> i want to get your initial response there. net negative for the republican party's image in the national poll, net positive for the democratic party image. what did that tell you? >> i'm going to do something amazing, todd, i'm going to agree with tom perez. i think it's hard to look at exit polls when sloetevoters ar voting. i have a hard time looking at them when many voters voted absentee. let's get voters get out and vote. if you haven't voted, get out and vote and we will look at the results when they come in. >> i'm curious, i want to get your reaction to something the president said in an interview earlier today but what he could do perhaps differently going forward. take a listen. i want to get your reaction. >> i would like to have a much softer tone. i feel to a certain extent i have no choice, but maybe i do and maybe i could have been softer from that standpoint. but i want to get things done. >> do you think the tone -- are

you concerned that the tone was a little harsh at the end and it may have turned off some s suburban republican voters? >> you know, i'm not. the rnc has been so focused on our ground game and commute kating wi communicating with voters through data. we customize the plan for each voter and take the message that we think will be best to turn them out. that's what we have been counting on. we don't rely on the media or broad messaging. ours is an individual plan to turn out each and every vote. we've been chasing absentee ballots and today we will be door knocking. one neighbor will get an economic message and the next a judge message and the next a different mess age. that's how we changed the way the rnc does business, having the one-on-one contact. >> reportedly the president nixed the idea of a closing message on the economy and instead wanted to have a closing message on immigration. why doesn't the economy motivate

your voters enough? >> you know, the economy does motivate the voters but it is a contrast. i'll be honest with you, chuck, when we saw in our polling when we were in these states, when we talked about the tax cuts and all of the good things happening, tom perez just talked about the accomplishment wing of the democratic party. i don't know what wing that is. all i know is the republican party is the party of accomplishments with 4 million jobs coming to the country, wages up, all of the good things happening. but if you take just that to the voters, it doesn't move the needle as much. you have to contrast with it with what would happen if you take the democrats to the house, nancy pelosi said she wants to raise taxes, more obstruction and resistance, more investigation. that slowing down of the economy has been what we've seen move the numbers. so i don't know why good news doesn't just bring voters out. would you think that it would. but they need to see what's at stake, and that's been the message we've been taking to them. >> by the way, your home state is michigan. you're the chair of the michigan

republican party. i got to ask, it does seem it's not going to be a good night for republicans in the state of michigan. and there's been a lot of lack of investment. is the flint water crisis, did it just make it politically nearly impossible for republicans in the state of michigan this cycle? >> well, the rnc has invested in michigan and we have five battleground congressional races there. we have a great candidate in john james. there are a couple of things, todd and i will say this about governor races across the country. a lot of the governor races that are competitive have to do with what's happened in those states. if you have outgoing governors with negative numbers, you're seeing those -- >> it just trickles down. >> the struggles or -- it trickles down. you see in oklahoma now, kansas. i do think that factors into the governors' races. they're not as prone to what's happening nationally. it's more state driven. i absolutely think that. and then with the senate race in michigan, the map's just been so big with florida, missouri, indiana, all of these states,

arizona, nevada. it's just hard to invest everywhere. there's one wave that is in existence and that is the green wave. the democrats have far outspent our candidates across the country with their small dollar fund-raising. if you look at the committee spending we've been equal but the fund-raising that the democrats have had at the small dollar level has been enormous. and that is part of what's helping them be competitive tonight in a lot of these seats. but we're competitive too. that's what's amazing, we're hitting our early vote targets. we expected 2016 levels. we built our program around that. it's going to be a late night, i think, but i feel very good about where we are and the election where we're typically the party that loses two to three senate seats or 30 house seats when you have that first term president. >> all right, madam chairwoman ronna mcdaniel. are you staying the full four years? i saw the president wants you to stay. >> i'm going to let the president make that announcement. we've had conversations. i love working as head of the

rnc. it's been the greatest opportunity, and i'm going to sleep for a day, talk to my family and let the president make that decision. >> all right. go get those diet cokes all chilled up. thank you for coming on and sharing a few minutes. >> thank you, todd. if you haven't voted yet, polls are still open as you heard both chairs saying go vote, go vote. you're looking live at arizona university in phoenix, where the lines are still stretching down the block. steve kornacki will be back. we've been giving you numbers here. the system is great. we'll be right back.

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you'll only pay $4.95. fidelity. open an account today. we were talking about the model t. now here we are talking about winning the most jd power iqs and appeal awards. talking about driver-assist technology talking about cars that talk and listen. talking about the highest customer loyalty in the country. but that's enough talking. seriously. that was a lot of talking. back to building

welcome back to our special election night coverage. let's get back to steve cor kornacki, the vast numbers. you're yelling at me now. what you got, brother? >> here's a novelty.

we ask people what the most important issue is, you go out and vote today, break it down by party among democrats, the lion's share almost 60% saying health care wa their top issue. of course, when you look at the ads democrats were running across the country, health care overwhelmingly was the top theme stressed there. democratic voters saying that was their top issue as well. guns, immigration, the economy also on the list. flip it around to republicans, different universe, right? they're talking about immigration, plurality here, number one but number one is immigration, 41%. what was the president talking about in the homestretch of this campaign? it was immigration. the economy. a lot of republicans, including apparently paul ryan, wanted the president to be talking more about the economy, 27% citing the economy. and still one in five, 20% there, saying health care was their issue. i don't know why that just happened. >> that's all right. >> there we go. we also show you among independents here, this is the interesting one i think, sort of the tiebreakers in an election, what wins out among independents, by a 2-1 margin it is health care over immigration

as the issue most on their minds. >> while that is another tea leaf as they say to read in this one, mr. kornacki. thank you very much. with me now is ari -- no, that doesn't mean i'm handing off 18 minutes early. ari is here because we're actually trying to deal with the voting issues. look, when you have a super-charged turnout, we assume there's a chance for more issues. i guess so far pretty good news, just your standard issue problems. >> my report which is good for participation in america. a lot of talk about this and debates in georgia. texas, which has a strict voter i.d. law. we've seen last-minute litigation. but the bottom line is as of this hour, we're not seeing any massive voter irregularity or problems that would make people concern about the totals integrity. one thing i want to emphasize here at msnbc, which is if you're out there and anyone

tells you in the afternoon in this late day that you can't vote, you have a right to go and ask for your name to be rechecked. you have a right to request a provisional ballot. and you can always call the department of justice. we will put that number up. i have it here 1-800-253-3931 to report anything that happens. that's sometimes true late in the day as we see issues. can you is ask for a provisional ballot and report anything if you have any issues. >> what's interesting here is it does seem as if the big, long lines are in the states that didn't have a lot of early voting. >> which is a good sign. >> and it's possible early voting is why we maybe have fewer problems on the elections down in the southern states. >> we talk a lot about election day in america. this was as you have been reporting 30-million plus election weeks in many parts of the country. >> i think we're all kind of glad this beat isn't overly heavy today because that would be ugly if we're not -- if we're not confident in the vote. >> a lot of people watch tonight for what's good or red or blue. this is the story so far that's

good for america. >> red, white and blue. ari, thank you very much. much more from nbc's election headquarters. stick around. this is your wake-up call. if you have moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis, month after month, the clock is ticking on irreversible joint damage. ongoing pain and stiffness are signs of joint erosion. humira can help stop the clock. prescribed for 15 years, humira targets and blocks a source of inflammation that contributes to joint pain and irreversible damage.

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over. congratulations on almost making it threw. we are runoffs that will take us around things. and secondly, 2020 election begins tomorrow. the presidential declarations keep coming out earlier and earlier. we at "mpt daily" are gearing up for 2020 and beyond. for thing that's will take shape in the coming days, weeks and months, i promise you the first semiserious candidate will announce, i bet you, before the end of the week. first things first, 2018. let's still celebrate 2018. we will be back with that and our panel next. ie of the year. i'm a musician about to embark on a concert tour, with the majority of which will be down south. atlantic city? the deep south. this thanksgiving... in the deep south, there's gonna be problems. when you see me worried... tony. you'll know if i'm worried. how about some quiet time. it's amazing you said that, my wife used to say that all the time. their journey inspired an unexpected friendship. i don't think i ever met anyone with your appetite. [ laughing ]

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2010, the house flipped.

2014, the senate flipped. 2018, looks like the house is going to flip. four straight midterms, done this. the last time that happened in this country was in the '30s and '40s. >> oh, no kidding. >> what does that tell you about the volatility of american politics? >> it tells you america is in a shift as it was in the '30s and '40s. that was a dramatic time ideologically, also in terms of world events, owns. one of the things that is going on here is the most obvious thing in the world. this is about the president. it's about this unique figure in american history who came two years ago, who was electricitieelectricity elected, and tonight is the first chance the american people collectively have a chance to say, this is what i think of the last two years. so i think it's a very dramatic and kind of epic night. >> jen, one of the reasons why i thought that the republicans had a bigger problem with this midterm than '16, in '16 the consequences of voting against

president trump was hillary clinton, if you cared about judges, things like that. donald trump's still president tomorrow. >> right. >> so if you a republican or independent that wasn't ready to hand all power to hillary clinton, but you don't like his style, this is a free vote. >> yeah, it is a little bit of that. it as little bit of a freebie. i was in -- i've been in unusual states for democrats. i've been in texas, georgia, indiana, and montana. and in those states you do have a sense from trump voters that, you know -- i know that some of them may not be -- some of them, well, it's not really working out. or, i wish he could be different, i wish he could rein this in. this is a way you can express that particularly if you're voting in a house race, and not worry about -- the reason why he is president is because of

judges. that is what got him, i think, over the hump. >> i always thought if you war gamed 2016, just changed one thing, antonin scalia had never died and was alive, does that change how '16 goes? the judges were that important to some republicans. >> i have a slightly different theory. for the last decade and a half the country has br looking for change. the moment they get change they're dissatisfied and start looking for the next brand of change. >> why do they keep voting for it? they make sure to give us an outcome so that you can't. >> they send members of congress to washington that what do they do and reward most of the incumbents. my theory is it comes down to economics. it's not about the jobs level, it's not about the stock market. it's about the fact that median warnlgs have been stagnating. even if they do up, they're gobbled up by the rising costs of health care and college tuition. it as fear the current generation is going to be worse off than the previous one.

until people feel that is changing, they're always going to be looking for the next change. >> one of the other big things tonight, the president'sth to the presidency went through pennsylvania, iowa, ohio, wisconsin, michigan. tonight all five of those states may have democratic dpofshers. >> i have a feeling tonight, based on nothing but just one's sense of things, that the dramatic losses that the democratic party experienced on the gubernatorial and state legislature offices during the eight years of obama may be starting to reverse tonight. that they may, if slough is the right word, we're down in the slough and may be coming down tonight. it may be reverting to its old order of rough balance. >> governors are a great bench for sure. and it's great to reinstate democratic governors in those

states. but i suspect the future, and i suspect the next democratic president, will probably win wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. that is possible. but i think our future lies in playing offense in arizona, texas, and georgia. >> the sun belt, yeah. >> it is. and that is what -- in '16 -- >> that's what you preach. >> that's what i was wanting for us to push. that's the reach. if stacy abrams wins tonight, particularly if she's the sitting governor of georgia, i think hillary lost georgia by 5 points. it's not that far a reach. that's the future. >> imagine a democratic party that has gill blum and abrams as governor but not phil bretti son and claire mccaskill as senators. what message does that send in the sun belt? does that change, hugging the middle is maybe not the best way? >> yeah, partly i think it will be an electoral realignment where arizona and georgia come in play for the democrats and theoretically, maybe, if

president trump and the republicans can recapture what they had in 2016, the midwest moves away from the democrats. i think we'll be looking at the rust belt sending a significant rebuke to president trump in this election. all those governorships, democrats are almost certain to win in pennsylvania and michigan, the governorships. slightly favored according to 538 to win wisconsin, ohio, iowa, and florida. that's extraordinary. i want to urge caution because president obama swept those in 2008, got crushed in 2010, rebounded in '14. >> the year of the republican governor was 1994 in all the midwest. 1996 that allowed the republicans to do what with the presidential race? lose it. >> i started daydreaming about my next comment and lost track of your question. >> there were all these republican governors elected in 1994 in the midwest. >> right. >> all it did was meant nothing for bill clinton's ability to win the midwest. >> that's true, but florida always means something in a year like 2018 when you have an election, a presidential coming

in 2020. here's something that interests me. if stacy abrams wins in georgia, how much do we attribute oprah winfrey's spectacular appearance arguing in her favor and telling people, i know you know what i'm saying. but you got to get out your cousin and your neighbor. that's one thing. the other thing is, abrams and gillum in florida, they are pretty darn progressive for their states. >> yeah. >> their states, if they elect them, will be knowingly electing someone to their left. >> they will have -- i got to pause. they'll have republican legislatures, which probably will allow them to be more centrist than you might imagine. thank you all. enjoy election night. and do it right here, msnbc. it starts in three and a half minutes.

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...you're about to find out! you don't even know where i live... hello! see the grinch in theaters by saying "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he. that's all for this special election edition of "meet the press." a nation divided. >> a blue wave would equal a crime wave. and a red wave equals jobs and security. >> the president not on the ballot. but he's made this election all about him. >> a vote for steve is a vote for me. a vote for sin did is a vote for me. a vote for david is a vote for me. >> democrats fighting for control. >> are you all ready to win this election and take this country into a far