corner of your screen, you see what the stakes are tonight. there is not a candidate, a single national candidate as there would be in a presidential election, but for many of the democrats, many of the republicans watching, that candidate is named 23. the 23 seats the democrats need to take control of the house. now, the 7:00 hour has alooirri and we have the following projections. in indiana in the senate race there, we're calling it too close to call at the top of the 7:00 p.m. hour. in the vermont, no surprise the re-election of bernie sanders, the independent who caucuses with the democrats. in virginia, no surprise, hillary clinton's former running mate, tim kaine, this is the race cane was in against cory stuart who made a big splash early. not so much along the homestretch. the u.s. senate at this hour and this of course is fluid and will

change all night, that is the undecided portion in gray of the u.s. senate. we'll fill in seats as we go. a race so many of you are following and asked about. georgia, governor too early to call. abrams versus kemp. steve kornacki sure looked busy over there at that board. what do you have at the top of seven. >> georgia, florida, virginia, starting to close right now. as you can see, we've got two. we'll keep an eye of two battleground districts here in florida. right outside atlanta and just seeing quickly, these are important. for democrats these are flip opportunities. directly related to governor's race. let me show you how the sixth district here of georgia. remember this one, this is where democrats dumped $30 million last year trying to get john through special election. that didn't work out. here we go again. this is one of the most closiel

watched races out there. the story outside about half the district here is a fulton county. largest county in the state. now this is where the special election did well here. if you're getting that surge democratic turnout. stacey abrams tacked about, you'll see it. in this portion of the district. this is a quarter of the district. if you have surge democratic turnout for the governor's race, see it here. probably in cobb county too. especially in tlanatlanta area, could spill over to this district. could spill over right next door to seventh district. late arrival on the democratic target list. the national media list.

>> florida, huge early voting state. we get a lot of vote and get it fast. 100,000 right now. rick scott, the challenger, running ahead now. all of this coming from one county. pasco county, in 2016, was the county we looked at, the gulf coast region. said something is happening here for trump. just early vote. just early, but when donald trump, pasco county, north of st. petersburg, a lot of retirees and a lot of folks from the midwest. come down to gulf coast. in pasco county. early on here, not saying read anything into this. keep an eye on this going. this is the question we're asking tonight in a senate race and governor's race is can scott perform at the trump level in places like pasco county or does it recede. go back to where mitt romney was in 2012. was enough for trump in 2016. getting our first. this is another one to keep an

eye on. citrus county. it will be a republican county. the question is how much. just getting a scattering in. looks like democratic areas. osceola county. going to be largest vote here. large puerto rican population in osceola county, tag about kissimee here. bill nelson expected to win. puerto rican vote, in light of the disaster last year. county to keep an eye on. early vote starting to be tabulated fast. three counties spitting it out. try to make sense of it. let you know when i've got a little bit more for you. >> not to put you on the spot. out of virginia, nbc has projected the winner of the senate race in virginia will be tim kaine. to get that kind of projection right at poll closing means it was not a close contest between him and cory stuart. does make me wonder about the virginia house races that have been such a point of focus for democrats. i know about a handful of

virginia races that democrats think they might be able to flip. i also know virginia tends to count a little slowly. we're not seeing any numbers yet out of those races. >> we're not. you mentioned so cory stuart. the republican we are now saying is going to lose that senate race. republican were nervous about the effect he might have down. keep an eye out. four republican held seats democrats are targeting. number one is tenth district right outside of washington, d.c. keep an eye on this one. the fifth district. now this is a republican held seat here. an open seat. population is kind of spread out. look what is right in the middle of it. charlottesville. a very democratic town. you expect the democratic strength to be there. look at the combination of the legacy of charlottesville of a year ago. the impact that had on the local population. the fact of cory stuart. this is a particularly

interesting one to watch. democratic haves targeted it. polling has showed close in this race. one of the four to keep an eye on here. other one we're monitoring too. we're trying to get over there. it's the suburbs of richmond and scott taylor in virginia beach. four in total in virginia. keeping an eye out as well where democrats are targeting. >> just a word. they're in this together. never apologize. we're in this with you. any of us who tried to make an i pad work. it's fantastic. let me just check to see if we got some in florida. i'll shout right back to you. >> i think that's a polite way of saying you guys talk among yourself. >> obviously the east coast closing.

we knew was going to be a big deal. we're not getting a ton of surprise at this point. all the way up to maine and all the way down to southern most district in florida. there are races the democrats think they're going to flip along the east coast. i mean, the president's approval rating is bad. not terrible. you know, the democratic wins tonight and the exit polls, first round of exit polls all look like they're going the democrats direction. at some point, the democratic confidence tonight is going to run up against real numbers: starting to see the numbers come in on the east coast. feel 2016 washing back over you rights now in terms of expectations, pollings and yet we don't have the real number >> florida, florida, florida. so much ptsd tied to florida 2000. i think on election night, sitting here in 2016 when trump won florida. that was when the night started to turn from the trump campaign perspective. when they won florida, that was

the first time. they didn't write a victory speech. didn't think they were going to win. all the polls up a bit. to see florida swinging back to being run by a democrat is remarkable. and, you know, there's so much trauma from getting it wrong from our side of it and for the democrats. if democrats have a good night in florida. that says something really important about the next few years. >> and in virginia, honestly. >> exactly. because virginia has off year elections at the state level, virginia had a chance to weigh in on the post trump landscape. when virginia went to go vote in the first nationally watched elections after trump was elected, they went blue hugely. right. the popular vote for the legislature was double digits. >> and the polling before that interestingly did not really catch that blueness of that wave, which was kind of interesting. >> democrats have tried to get

up the vote and enthusiasm and stuff you can't measure on paper. >> almost took the house of delegates within one seat, which was not ever going to happen. >> they would have taken. had that legislature not the -- taken the house by a mile. that's the other thing going on. we don't talk about it. it's become the climate. we have regular storms. the country is gerrymandered to structurally benefit republican candidates in such a way that if you look at the popular vote for congress tonight, democrats may need to win the popular vote by double digits in order to have a chance at winning control of congress. >> that is why the governor races and state legislative races are as important as congressional races. they can redraw the district after the next census. >> if the playing field is going to be untilted, they will be the one to do it. >> i just got the eye from steve kornacki, what do you have.

>> we showed you florida senate. let's take a look at florida governor. see a lot of gray on the screen. we say so much of the vote in florida is early. show you a screen. there's going to be a number a little misleading on it. put it in perspective. we got a lot more vote. this says one percent is in. 1% of election precinct now reporting. you add this up. 275,000 votes counted here. we estimate based on our projections half the vote coming in. this is st. petersburg. take a look here. we said this is the area that gulf coast where trump did well overperformed in 2016. in 2016 trump won pinellas 49/47. the every vote in and tabulated, republican running three point short of the trump pace there. that is encouraging early sign for democrats. obviously raises the question. election day vote. republicans seem to have a surge with the election day vote in 2016.

independents seem to break their way. what happens with the remaining let's say 40% of the vote from this county when it is tabulated. same day vote. another republican surge. can desantos break the number. if you're looking at the number out of pinellas county. we expect this is more than half of the vote. it's already been tabulated here. it says 1%. the early vote is not ruouted through precincts. the early vote goes through the county. it's been counted. you see again, running three points underneath the trump 16 total there. he's ahead. we expected him to win. look at that, 22 point margin there for trump in 2016. it's clocking in at 12 right now. again, i said is it going to be closer to romney. or closer to trump. this is closer to romney. the question is when they count that same day vote, was there any kind of republican surge. we are starting to get a

significant cure of the vote in. checking here. tallahassee this did pop up. take leon county. the mayor of tallahassee. democratic area. not surprised. overperforming. clinton in 2016. democratic county. home county. gill up agaium again. donald trump majcan desan tis w tethered himself closely to trump, replicate that performance or do we look at something more like 2012. >> steve, thank you. thank you for the context and every case showing us the trump performance and in some cases the romney performance and just holler if you have results that we need to go to in the meantime, we keep telling folks it's going to be a minute before we have answers on georgia.

katie tur is in atlanta for us at a polling location where people are still in line to vote even though the polls have closed officially. hey, katie. >> expect to be here a little while longer counting the balance. they say the turnout has been presidential election level. not a midterm election. people are excited about voting. let's try to talk to somebody in line. >> ma'am, can i just ask you, you were one of the last people in line. you came in at the wire. they closed the doors right behind you. >> yes. >> why was it so important for you to come out. >> well, obvious reasons. >> so in this race, are you voting because the governor's race. >> this is one of the most important elections ever.

why? >> because of the state of the country and because of the state of the union, i would say. >> may i ask who you're voting for. >> no. >> you don't have to tell me. >> okay. >> you don't have to tell me. don't you worry. >> you're voting for stacey. you're happy to say that. >> yes. >> why are you voting for stacey. >> because i feel comfortable. >> were you concerned about voter suppression at all or any of the issues. >> no. >> having a hard time at all getting your vote cast. >> well, it was hard to get up here. and i was ready to vote. >> they had lines here, guys, that stretched around the block for hours. i was talking to the lady in charge here. valerie, you want to come talk to me real fast. i want to ask you, what's it been like here all day watching people come in to vote. >> crazy. >> crazy. >> yes. we got here at six. >> it's just one word, guys,

crazy. >> we got here at 6:00 in the morning. we had lines all day. >> any issues at all voting? >> people in the wrong precinct and not having patience to wait. >> and cast provisional ballot when they do that. >> we had maybe 15. >> owe heard problems at other places, but nothing here. >> no problems. >> you have been watching along with us. there have been problems at polling places. they've extended some of the polling times and i think about two polling places in this state all in all, this is you guys are talking about, a state to watch. it's a race to watch. yes, we're focused on congressional races and what happens in the senate and what happens in the house, but the governor's races are so important. the democrats can take over a number of governor's mansions across the country. that could really change the way voting maps look in 2020 and 2022 and 2024 going forward. these governors will have the power to veto any maps.

taking over from republicans any maps that are drawn by republicans. it could look a lot different in the coming years. >> katie tur in atlanta. thank you for that. reminder to viewers. elections are successful because of people like the woman we just met. >> vallvalerie. my heart goes out to you. >> crazy. problems, no. >> that's the determination. >> i love it. >> when we come back, joined bid steve schmit. joined by chuck todd. ask them to weigh in on what we're witnesses this midterm election night 2018. let's be honest. every insurance company tells you they can save you money. save up to 10% when you bundle with esurance. including me, esurance spokesperson dennis quaid.

he's a pretty good spokesperson. ehhh. so when i say, "drivers who switched from geico to esurance saved an average of $412," you probably won't believe me. hey, actor lady whose scene was cut. hi. but you can believe this esurance employee, nancy abraham. seriously, send her an email and ask her yourself. no emails... no emails. when insurance is affordable, it's surprisingly painless. at fidelity, our online u.s. equity trades are just $4.95. so no matter what you trade, or where you trade, you'll only pay $4.95. fidelity. open an account today. you'll only pay $4.95. you're still here? we're voya! we stay with you to and through retirement. i get that voya is with me through retirement,

i'm just surprised it means in my kitchen. so, that means no breakfast? voya. helping you to and through retirement. carla is living with metastatic breast cancer, which is breast cancer that has spread to other parts of her body. she's also taking prescription ibrance with an aromatase inhibitor, which is for postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive her2- metastatic breast cancer as the first hormonal based therapy. ibrance plus letrozole was significantly more effective at delaying disease progression versus letrozole. patients taking ibrance can develop low white blood cell counts, which may cause serious infections that can lead to death. before taking ibrance, tell your doctor if you have fever, chills, or other signs of infection, liver or kidney problems, are pregnant, breastfeeding, or plan to become pregnant. common side effects include low red blood cell and low platelet counts, infections, tiredness, nausea, sore mouth, abnormalities

in liver blood tests, diarrhea, hair thinning or loss, vomiting, rash, and loss of appetite. carla calls it her new normal because a lot has changed, but a lot hasn't. ask your doctor about ibrance. the #1 prescribed fda-approved oral combination treatment for hr+/her2- mbc. i am a techie dad.n. i believe the best technology should feel effortless.

like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. from the northwestern most points of the united states to alaska all the way down to southeastern corner of the

country, florida keys where florida republicans are worried about holding on to one of their house seats. we've got battle grounds all over the country. literally to the corners. we've got results in now from florida and steve kornacki is looking at those endangered incumbent republicans in key house races in florida state. what do you have. >> also in the last sort of introducing it. key counties coming in in florida state wide. let's just reset there in the race for governor. this is where it stands now. well over 2 million votes have been counted statewide. let me show you some of what's come in. this is the county right here. this was one of those places where donald trump outperformed mitt romney. the net was six point. six point improvement for trump over romney in terms of margin. trump one here by 20 points. margin right now 13 points. early vote in the county. this is half of the vote has been counted here. desantis again closer to mitt

romney number. might be the exact mitt romney number. 5643 was the mitt romney barack obama number. again, the question with the same day vote is any kind of republican surge there. check in miami-dade county as well. we're getting again well over half the vote out of miami-dade county. you can see here this is a bit of a fall back so far from what clinton got in 2016. 64%. 59% from gillum right now. those are the big wons that come in. hillsborough as well. tampa coming in. gillum is up for the advantage there. look at the senate race. it looks pretty similar there. see if you get any different numbers. about the same out of miami-dade county. he's getting about the same out of brevard. if you look in hillsborough there. some kind of surge to get them back to trump levels.

on the house side, one competitive race the democratic haves been targeting. starting to get returns here. vacancy. open seat i should say the republican incumbent is aside. decided not to run for re-election. two counties coming in here. hillsborough, half of the population. carries population by couple of points in the 2016. good news have gotten out ahead with half of the vote counted. probably when you look at the district, might need to be ahead by a little bit more. looking to be a republican area. we expect here. the initial indication may be positive for republicans. in that competitive district. statewide, you can see early on, not so early on anymore. got a lot of vote in. gillum and nelson tracking closely to each other and running ahead right now. >> steve, thank you. we have a camera dedicated to you tonight so later when it gets really tight, just flap your arms and we'll come over there to you. we are joined here by a native floridian who happens to be the

nbc news political director, chuck todd. >> you went from alaska to key west. not fair to friends in guam. >> you know what, again. nailed on guam. >> on guam. >> and apparently the first flip of the night. >> is it really? >> remember, we learned the democratic now the next governor of guam. >> so democrats have picked up the guam governorship. >> i stand corrected. >> we needed you. >> who knew. what's interesting to me about florida is the fact the two races aligned suddenly. for most of the campaign, they had stayed separate. gillum had started to pull a small, but consistent lead and nelson and scott were coin flipped. scott ran a brilliant campaign for i would argue a year. let's say if it was one year to campaign, he ran a really brilliant campaign for 50-52 weeks. the last two weeks, he stayed away from the president. he distanced from the president.

tried to run above everything. president came twice and scott had to be with his twice. once ten days ago and once in pensacola. the pattern of where the president visited in the last two weeks and the downturn in the statewide number for that republican candidate was pretty consistent across the country. i've talked to republican pollsters. ted cruz lost 4 points after the president visited. that's why stally and heller didn't want him to come on the last visit. i think scott is going to ask himself, should he -- look, i had a strategist say to me. you're dammed if you do, dammed if you don't. can't with without the base and. >> explain how gillum played that. we be we've been trying to get him on the show. he's determined to stay local. >> in a governor's race, i think nationalizing him got him the nomination. at the end of the day, people -- most voters aren't like us putting them in red and blue

t-shirts. most people when they decide on their governor actually think about the person first. one of the things, look, andrew gillum has run a good campaign. he was held by the worst. never explained why he wanted to be governor. he just decided one day i want to be governor. donald trump can i be governor. he does. i talked to one high republican in florida. somebody i knew you would be familiar with. you said to me. i asked him why he's running and i want to appoint supreme court justices and on day one. rest of your term. you have no idea. so desantis was looking to step up in office, but didn't have -- and somebody else told me he would have rather been a senator than a governor. >> that was clear. you wanted to pick federal judges. governors don't get to do that. >> three open seats that on day one of the new governor, you do get to appoint those. >> has bill nelson run a better

election campaign people have been giving him credit for. >> it's hard to say. i think he stayed more competitive with rick scott than he gets credit for, but it's the doc who gets credit for this. i would say this, they poured all the extra money that was necessary. rick scott is his own super pac. okay. he put in some -- he spent more than both the super pac and nelson combined. they kept nelson alive. kept him competitive when he could have been swamped with money. gillum is the special sauce. nelson was -- look, scott in isolation i think wins the race against nelson simply saying he's been in washington too long. >> here's a billion dollars. >> yes. gillum, look, the governor's race was the marquee race. not the senator race. this was gill lum. >> here's the irony.

turned out to be absolutely wrong. we're very early. if stacey abrams and andrew gillum win tonight, it transforms how democrats run in the south. this idea if andrew gillum and stacey abrams wins, just will transform how democrats think about running in the south. you don't -- the clinging to the middle and hoping it inspires the democratic base, you know, michelle will now look probably and jason carter who both just got clobbered in georgia running that kind of race, probably looking and saying, oh, you know what, maybe some of these progressive democrats are right. >> look at how they handled kavanaugh. and look how orourke.

very presence on the campaign trail sends the message any one wants to send. makes the toxicity far more parallel. >> want to remind people. don't just assume how the mississippi is going to go. there's going to be a runoff. there's a chance that can control the united states senate. when you see how other democrats -- the house stacey abrams and gillum won in the south, my guess is look at that. it's just going to make -- like i said. i think it transforms how democrats run in the south. >> most inspiring picture is what you mentioned a couple of

days ago when you saw barack obama coming in and holding up the two hands of bill nelson and gillum and it was inspiring. african-american helping out the white candidate. >> you see on graphic what we're coming up on. ten seconds away from 7:30 poll closings. steve kornacki, we're coming to you after we have the results. so far at least tonight in the 7:30 closings. in west virginia, a closely watched senate race. joe mansion, speaking of deciding how to handle the kavanaugh matter. too early to call. ohio senate, too early to call show sharon brown is in the lead thus far and has the advantage. the senate at this hour, again, pay attention to the undecided, the vacant gray seats in the center over party balance this early in the evening.

ohio governor, too early to call at 7:30 eastern time. and one of the big races, we keep touching on. so many people are following, georgia governor, too early to call. over to steve kornacki at the board. what do you have. >> steve, i understand we've got new important numbers out of some of those virginia house districts we've been looking at. >> we said, remember, there are four. four republican held seats. democrats are really going after it in virginia where we've got the most votes in. right now outside of washington, d.c. tenth district a name you've been hearing. a lot of that this year. barbara running for re-election. in a district hillary clinton won by ten points. it is less than 48% in right now. again, we've got well over 40,000 votes. interestingly you see where this vote is coming from. it's going to billion pretty instructive. this is louden county. outside of washington, d.c. this is the biggest chunk of the district. about 40% of the vote overall is going to come out of loudoun

county. the democratic challenger running at 56%. 56% is the exact same vote total share that hillary clinton got in the loudoun county portion of tenth district of virginia. she's running at hillary clinton's numbers right now. hillary clinton cared this district by ten points. of the four districts, they're targeting in virginia, this is the one they felt most confident in. it would be a catastrophe if they did not carry the ten. getting out of the largest part of the district the number they want to see right now. starting to get 20,000 vote count in the seventh district again. routed around the richmond suburbs here. dave pratt setting off political tsunami. about a third of the district right here in the county. still a lot more vote to come. this is encouraging. running ahead early, but this is a place i could just give you

the number and i think she's got to kind of shoot for in this part of the district. hillary clinton got 52% of the vote in this part of the district. hillary clinton didn't carry the district. might need to get that a little bit higher as the votes kob s ce to come in. overall, spanberger out by a point right now. the fifth district right there in virginia. charlottesville starting to get numbers. see here the republican out in front. now what hasn't come in yet here is charlottesville itself. charlottesville the biggest city in the district. has come down here by roanoke, this is the most protrump part of the district. see trump numbers so far. still more vote to come in. the question was would there be slippage in trump country. trump country portion of this district. getting trump level support right now. that is what we're seeing in virginia right now. in terms of what we're watching

and as stuff starts to come in at this point, one of the things we're keeping in mind is national exit polls. tell us a little bit about the direction overall. turnout numbers are going to be key. for example, in the race, what steve is saying in the trump parts of the district, you're getting trump level numbers. we haven't seen the nontrump. democrat leaning parts of that district. they're counting on turning huge numbers. >> correct and in charlottesville. there's going to be a big democratic vote. we don't know how big. clearly there's going to be a big democratic vote. you look at that margin in district ten. losing to jennifer weston. that's a big margin. that bodes well for democratic hopes. >> just over half of the vote in. i think this is what -- i mean, barbara has been on every list

of the most vulnerable incumbents. just because that district was plus ten hillary clinton and jennifer is a very strong candidate. you add those together and there isn't much of a way out. it will be the first republican incumbent to lose her seat tonight, but it won't be enough to tell you much about what's going to happen. it will be the margin. >> the margin will be important. one thing that she did she constantly ran says she voted we donald trump 98% of the time. that ad, you just couldn't get away from that ad. >> that works everywhere in the country. even the most outspoken anti-trump republicans in the could be try in the house and senate, still always vote 90% of the time plus with donald trump because of the way congress works. >> even jeff flake, who is now famous for being a trump critic, has voted with him. we're going to be talking about

turnout all night. when we talk about the kind of night democrats are having. it's good because they grew the pot. they didn't suppress trump. you need to know how important voter suppression was to the republicans, just watch donald trump in the last 24 hours. he said yesterday, he said yesterday he made a conspiracy about voter fraud. there isn't widespread voter fraud. >> threatening people. >> there is no inner monologue. there's no inner monologue. so from trump's mouth you heard how important voter suppression was. >> i've been alerted steve kornacki has something for us. >> we've got something to take you through. let's go back from the congressional district. maybe it's easier if i'm on this side. amy mcgrath has jumped out to a lead. the reason we've been stressing this. fayette county, 40% of the district. this is basically the city of lexington, we've got now this is about accurate. we've got about 60% of the vote that is in from fayette county.

she's running, the benchmark, 60% for her there. she's running at 60%. that translates as sort of imbalance here in terms of sdk vet i democratic vote in. crucial is franklin county. that's got to go democratic for her to be in the game here. that's the update there. we can show you quickly indiana. i want to again the republican continuing to lead. only now are we beginning to get votes in here from the big democratic areas. biggest county in the state. indianapol indianapolis. biggest county you can see. very low early vote percent, historically come out of marion county. a lot more same day. a lot more votes than this. democrats keeping their eye on marion county. keeping their eye on late county up here. second biggest county in the state. saint joseph county. was in this part of the state. they want to see that. we also want to see, i said it

to start the night, if you start seeing blue in southern indiana, you say take a trip back in time a little bit here. barack obama in 2008 when he won indiana, won counties in southern indiana. joe donnelley in 2012 when he got elected won counties here. hillary clinton was not in the game here. you do see blue popping up. these are not complete. clark county right here. other side of louisville. other side of the river there. early on, but see if you get keeping blue there. in florida, very quickly. we now have in in florida vote wise, has virginia just been called. we have first flip of the night. here sit, the tenth district of virginia. we just told you the democrats got the level of support they needed in the key county in virginia ten. we are now projects virginia ten will be a pickup for democrats. that means barbara the republican defeated for

re-election. democrats need a net gain of 23 seats. down to 22. democrats are now 22 away from control of the house. again, we said this is a catastrophe for democrats if they weren't carrying the tenth. we figured this would be the first to be called. mark it down that is the first to be called on this night. quickly to bring you back to florida because we got a lot more vote that just came in in florida. i want to quickly take you through it. these three counties right here are the heart of any democrats chances in the state of florida. we now have the early vote in. we have the bulk of the vote in from these counties. again, hillary clinton in 2016 did not carry florida. she did pretty well in these democratic parts of the state. take a look here. palm beach county. hillary clinton got 57%. gillum running at 62. broward t miami gillum running a little short of that right now. the gulf coast. democratic strength here and do you get trump surge like you had in 2016 in the gulf coast. take a look.

sarasota, this down three points again. getting closer to what you would have seen with mitt romney. take a look, charlotte. it's about level a point off. lee county. actually desantis is running ahead significantly ahead. i am just seeing that for the first time. that is one place at least with the early vote. that's significant. over 100,000 votes counted there. good news for the republicans there. pasco county off the mark. we showed you that. the big thing to keep an eye on is gillum leads statewide with all that vote in, the senate and the governor's race, 52/48. the numbers don't quite match up, but the margin there, 52/47. doing a little bit better there. head to head. that's what we've got so far out of florida. big picture in florida. half the vote in. leading statewide in governor's race and senate race going county by county shows us why

they're lining up that way. can i ask, do we have allen gomez standing by right now. wanted to bring him into the conversation while we're britalg about the florida numbers. going to be the issue of latino voters. latino voters tend to not turn out in great numbers in midterm elections. latino voters are wild card in an election where immigration has been prioritized and in sump a ragged edge. all a allen, in terms of these florida results we're seeing tonight and what we're starting to see nationwide, how do you think the latino vote and immigration are playing? >> immigration obviously is taking center stage. the exit polling you were showing a little while ago, immigration is number two issue. if you look back a month ago before president trump started his sort of assault on the

migrant caravan and birthright citizenship and all of that. immigration was running third, fourth, fifth in some polls depending what you're looking at. shows he made it that much of an issue. obviously we're going to see which way that swings and whether that was a good thing for him. when it comes to hispanic voters, you're right. historically underperformed dramatically. way behind whites and black voters. in 2014, 27% of eligible hispanic voters turned out. of the population turned the out to vote. all the indication is a bit of a surge this year. polling indicates it could get up to 35-36 percent range. because they've underperformed so much, we'll have to wait and see. so far, the early returns sew that like everyone else we're seeing out there, they're going to turn out a little bit more this year. >> there is no single latino community in the united states. there's a lot of different types of latino communities with a lot

of different geographic concerns and different ideological alliances. if we see a spike like you're talking, 35-36% of eligible voters, how would you expect that to map in terms of partisan affiliation. obviously that wouldn't just be a pure democratic vote. >> i mean, predominantly if you look at them on average, lean for democratic around the country. when it comes to cuban american vote, puerto ricans are going to be really interesting test this year. that's we talked so much about how this midterm election is a test on the president's policies and obviously his handling of hurricane maria and puerto rico. that's going to weigh heavily on their decision when they come out to vote. there's a lot more central and south americans throughout florida right now. so the hispanic vote is very complicated here in this state. overall, when you look around the you try. when yvirginia, northern virgina

where you just called that first race, that's another place where it's really big. i think it's interesting concept. she ran a very, very trump campaign. talked a lot about ms-13. talked a lot about dangers of illegal immigration. and look what happened already. >> joining us tonight from miami. really appreciate having you here. if this ends up being on the republican side, the election of the caravan, where the president put that at the absolute center of everything and ends up from the democratic side being latino voters coming out in record numbers, that will be the snake eating its pig. >> just to share homework with you, we're on our way to another break. the very patient steve schmit is standing by. let me read off the list of 8:00 closings we're coming up 16

minutes away. alabama, connecticut, delaware, d.c., florida, illinois, maine, maryland. massachusetts. pennsylvania, rhode island, tennessee f you heard your state in there, even if you didn't, i would advise you to stay close. we'll be right back.

take prilosec otc and take control of heartburn. so you don't have to stash antacids here.... here... or here. kick your antacid habit with prilosec otc. one pill a day, 24 hours, zero heartburn. but prevagen helps your brain with an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. whenshe was pregnant,ter failed, in-laws were coming, a little bit of water, it really- it rocked our world. i had no idea the amount of damage that water could do. we called usaa. and they greeted me as they always do. sergeant baker, how are you? they were on it. it was unbelievable. having insurance is something everyone needs, but having usaa- now that's a privilege. we're the baker's and we're usaa members for life. usaa.

get your insurance quote today. at fidelity, our online u.s. equity trades are just $4.95. so no matter what you trade, or where you trade, you'll only pay $4.95. fidelity. open an account today. the new lincoln mkc.mix..95. connecting the world inside, with the world outside. so you can move through both a little easier. introducing the well-connected 2019 lincoln mkc.

it's my job to protect as a public safety,pg&e, keeping the powerlines clear while also protecting the environment. the natural world is a beautiful thing. the work that we do helps protect it. public education is definitely a big part of our job, to teach our customers about the best type of trees to plant around the powerlines. we want to keep the power on for our customers. we want to keep our communities safe. this is our community. this is where we live. we need to make sure that we have a beautiful place for our children to live. together, we're building a better california.

mber. proven, quality sleep. we are back, 11 minutes away from a huge batch of poll closings and our decision desk is deciding right now what we are going to say about them at the top of the hour. in the meantime, i'm told our friend steve has new numbers over at the board. >> let's take a look at georgia. the picture coming in right now. it is very incomplete. you can see the numbers tabulated. overwhelming lead for brian kemp the republican. reason heavy republican areas in small democratic counties coming in. the ball game for democrats really is going to be in the atlanta metro area. you don't see much of fulton county. largest county in the state. this is what we don't have any votes coming out of here yet.

fulton county is going to get 350,000 votes are more cast here. hillary clinton won close to 70% of the vote here. this is going to be 81%. we're going to have close to vo. when this comes in, it will tell us a lot. some precincts have held voting hours open a little bit longer. it's a huge county and it's changed dramatically from a demographic standpoint, nonwhite voters, african-americans, hispanics, coming into this for the first time, hillary clinton 2016 geared this county. she got 51% of the vote here against donald trump. if stacey abrams can improve on that and if stacey abrams can build on the turnout with those voting groups we talked about, that could have a huge impact on the governor's race and a huge impact in georgia's seventh district, which is most of -- most of that district is gwinet

county. republican hold, every district you see here is currently a republican held district rek democrats are targeting. republicans, on this list of 66, they have 1/3 first save of the night. very quickly, i did want to go back and show you indiana. it's beginning to tighten. democratic areas beginning to report. this is gary, indiana, hammond, late county donnelly doing better than hillary clinton did in 2016. you're starting to get some vote out of marion county. you're going to have close to 300,000 votes out of here before all is said and done. ft. wayne, this would be -- ft. wayne is the city here, allen county, if donnelly were to emerge with a win, that would be unusual for the democrats, big for him. we're seeing the democratic areas come in there and that race will tighten. keeping an eye on a bunch of

poll closings coming in at any time right now. >> terms of house races we're watching, we have our first flip of the night from red to blue. we've got barbara comstock losing her seat to jennifer wexton. it's the district in florida ron desantis used to hold. had to give up the seat. waltz is the democrat to came in. waltz will hold that seat. that's one of the ones that democrats had hoped to pick up, if only because it was an open seat. but the republicans have been able to hold on there. as we're starting to see the first conclusive results come in tonight, we want to go to our dear friend, the eloquent republican strategist and former republican, i should say, steve schmidt. it's been too long since i've seen you, my friend. great to have you here tonight. >> good to be with you rachel. >> big picture, how you're feeling about the import of this

election tonight. >> if you're the democrats tonight, watching this from the national party headquarters, you have some early reasons to be optimistic. when you look at the exit polls it looks like donald trump was a determinative factor -- >> steve, i would only do for a call. interrupt you for one second. don't lose your train of thought. we do have a call in the ohio senate race, democratic senator sherrod brown projected to hold onto his seat fending off the republican challenger, who closely aligned himself with president trump. sherrod republicans salivated at the prospect of knocking off in this property. he will comfortably hold onto his seat tonight. sorry, my friend. >> when you look at the race, the issue, i think, that we're going to see play out over the night is the degree to which donald trump and air force one and the dramatic rivals in all of the states for these maga

rallies where he incited all manner of racial animous, in ohio yesterday donald trump came, spent the last day in the campaign trail, campaigning for mike dewine, running for governor of ohio. did he give mike a lifeline or did he push his head under the water? when we look at these florida returns right now, it seems to be the case that donald trump was an anchor around the ankles of the two republican candidates. at the end of the day, what the race has been about is a referendum on trump and trumpism. donald trump has traveled the country, incited the american people, he's stoked a cold civil war. he has led a campaign of racial animos, the likes of which we have not seen in the modern era, something that would be re recognizable to lester maddox or

george wallace. what we're going to watch play out over the night is whether trumpism faces its first validation or first repudiation, looking at the early returns, i would bet on repudiation. it will be a long night, we'll see. >> do you feel like republican candidates have a choice as to how they align themselves with trump or not? one thing chuck todd was talking about, republicans had a hard decision to make whether they would stand on a stage with trump, whether they would attend a rally, to put him on their own local races. do republicans have a choice? can they say no to trump and still turn out the republican base enough to compete? >> one of the things i think that we miss in our analysis in our coverage is this. we can't just say the election is determined by the last big event that occurs in the campaign. as opposed to the first meaningful event. when donald trump arrived in washington, d.c. there were

three parties. there was an insurgent trump party. a republican party. and a democratic party. the republican party capitulated to donald trump one by one by one. they surrendered to trumpism. they became apologists for the incitement, the cruelty, the malice, for the assaults on our institutions, for the constant lying, for the ill liberal assaults on the media. they made the decision to years ago to tie themselves to donald trump, to tie themselves to donald trump lock, stock and barrel. that's the decision that mattered. today the bill comes due for that decision. so the question isn't what you do in the last week of the campaign. it's what you do in the first week of service. every single one of these republicans, by and large, when you talk to them privately, or when you used to have private conversations with them, they would tell you that they were offended. they would tell you that they

were appalled. they would tell you that they've been in meetings with him and they think that he's crazy and that he's unfit. they would never say it publicly. and so the choices to either repudiate or validate, that's the question at hand. and i think that it gives these republicans a pass to say that they didn't have a choice, that their hands weren't bound. they did have a choice. they had a choice to be fidelitous to the issues they claimed belief in for most of their political careers until donald trump arrived on the scene. >> former republican strategist, steve schmidt, thank you for joining us, steve. >> you bet. >> sobering, as always. nicolle wallace, you and i were talking about this a few minutes ago off camera. there are republicans who repudia repudiate trump, who call the president out on specific matters and call him out in general in terms of his overall approach to politics and then

they quit. nobody calls him out and then votes against him, or stays in office and decides to fight. >> and we shouldn't -- there aren't many. you don't need two hands to count them. but the most specific was bob corker. he questioned his competence, his fitness to serve, he called this west wing adult day care, and then he actually held a hearing to sort of hear expert testimony about the president's nuclear power. >> just before the poll closings in less than two minutes, we've got a call. >> another flip. you have your second flip of the night, this is the 27th district of florida, iliana ross, the republican who designed -- it's going democratic. one that democrats were worried about a few weeks ago. they nominated donna shalala. there's a large cuban-american population here. concern that shalala was not faring well. she has won the 27th district.

it's a flip. they began the night needed 23, and now only need 21. a call, the third miami-dade, wibl aef another call, the charlottesville based district democrats were hoping to win, we said rigleman was doing well, he was doing very well, he's projected to be the winner there, democrats do not get the pickup. we have five calls from our target list, democrats have picked up two of them, both of these districts, be clear, both were districts hillary clinton had won in 2016, throwing out republicans when it comes to congress. democrats have taken two off the target list in the house. >> steve kornacki at the board, thank you. we're coming up on 30 seconds away from the 8:00 eastern calls, a huge list, we're going to go after the senate races first. we're going to break internally. then we'll take a look at the

governor's races. but here is the list of states we'll be coming up on, starting with alabama, ending with tennessee. we've had some split closing times as we approach, again, the 8:00 hour here in the east. and we're going to start with one that we've been covering tonight. we just don't have the finishing data on it as 8:00 arrives. florida governor, too close to call at this hour. florida senate, also too close to call. missouri senate, closely watched race tonight, too close to call at this hour. tennessee senate, too early to call, blackburn is the early leader in that race. massachusetts senate and the next six people are going back to work in the senate, let's just say that, elizabeth warren, no surprise, connecticut senate,