[ready forngs ] christmas? no, it's way too early to be annoyed by christmas. you just need some holiday spirit! that's it! this feud just went mobile. with xfinity xfi you get the best wifi experience at home.

and with xfinity mobile, you get the best wireless coverage for your phone. ...you're about to find out! you don't even know where i live... hello! see the grinch in theaters by saying "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he. ♪ it is 4:00 a.m., that's right, 4:00 a.m. live here on the east coast. 1:00 a.m. for our viewers out west. thanks for staying up with us. i'm willie mcginest. it is still election night, or maybe the morning after. we haven't decided still.

this morning both parties claiming victory. the democrats have won enough seats in the house to take the majority there. they needed a net gain of 23, which they have locked up. our nbc news decision desk projects democrats could end up with as many as 230 seats in the house. the senate, meanwhile, remaining in republican control. in fact, republicans picked up a few seats, including some of the highest profile ones. let's take a look at some of the results as we whip through the highest profile of all perhaps ted cruz, the republican incumbent, holding off the insurgent beto o'rourke, the democrat falling just short in the state of texas. mike braun an upset of incumbent joe donnelly in the state of indiana. north dakota senate race goes another rain gain to kevin cramer. marsha blackburn defeating phil bredesen, the former governor of that state. she will be the next senator there. joe man kmin in the state donald trump won by 40 points holds on

to his seat as a democrat in the state of west virginia. an upset, a bit of an upset in the state of missouri. josh hawley, the republican picking up a seat for his party there, knocking off claire mccaskill. and jacky rosen, just within the last hour, we've been able to project in the state of nevada, the democrat defeating the republican incumbent dean heller there. another democratic pickup in the senate. still too close to call, though, in a couple these tight races. martha mcsally, the republican, with a 19,000 vote spread, just barely over kyrsten sinema in the state of arizona. that is too close to call with 71% of the vote in. also florida, the senate race there still too close to call even with 99% of the vote in. the split there between governor rick scott, the republican, and bill nelson, only 38,000 votes. meanwhile, in montana, jon tester fighting for his life. the democratic incumbent up 6500 votes in the state of montana.

we'll keep a close eye on that one for you throughout the morning. and checking in with some of the governors races we've been following, here is what we know. a big win for the democrats in the state of wisconsin. tony evers defeating the incumbent scott walker. scott walker has won election several times in that state, including a recall election, is now out of office. and in a high profile race in the state of florida, the republican ron desantis defeating andrew gillum, one of the young hopes for the democratic party falling just short in the state of florida. meanwhile, california has a new governor. it's lieutenant governor will move up in office. gavin newsom winning easily over the republican john cox. in oregon, kate brown is the projected winner against knute buehler, the republican there, winning by 6 points. our experts are up late night with us. it's now 4:04 a.m. maria therese is a kumar.

elise jordan is an msnbc political analyst, the co-host of "the words matter" podcast. susan del percio is an nbc political analyst. and down at the end of the table we pulled up a chair for him real special like, jon meacham, the presidential biographer and historian, also an msnbc contributor back in d.c. jonathan lemire for the associated press and an msnbc political analyst. also with us adrien elrod, strategic director of communications for hillary clinton's 2016 campaign. an outstanding probably a better panel than i deserve at 4:00 in the morning. thank you all for being here. john, you brought some dry-cleaning with you. >> did. >> you've taken some notes on it. >> did some research. >> that's a dry-cleaning cardboard. >> it's from marsha blackburn's statement. >> let's start in tennessee, the state where you live. surprised by the result and how quickly it was called? >> surprised by the margin. >> yeah. >> tennessee has a tradition, a

complicated state. so it's 4:05. let's talk about 1860. so we were a state that was the last to secede, the last to get back in, very divided historically, therefore a complicated state. so statewide has often sent people like howard baker or the gores or jim sasser, people who are not an extreme side of one or the other. senator blackburn, whether you agree or disagree with her, is very much a fox news conservative, comes straight from that tradition, and we've sent more moderate folks in the past. and now in the culture of trump, we've sent someone who is more sulfurous. >> phil bredesen was a very popular governor. when he was re-elected, it was with 70% of the vote. they picked the right kind of candidate for the state, did the democrats. >> and he ran the right kind of campaign too. he really did a beautiful

political balancing act of saying that he would be separate from the national democratic party, that he wasn't going to just necessarily knee-jerk oppose trump just because he was donald trump, and he really was on a pretty good path, i think. >> he even supported kavanaugh. >> he did. kavanaugh was really where it all went off the rails for him that is when i feel like tennessee voters remembered their tribal designs a little more. >> yeah. >> because i had been surprised by how much positivity that there was, in the state when we were in march doing focus groups. and strong trump supporters went out of their way to justify why they would consider voting for phil bredesen, and that just never happens. he is not that liberal. he is more of a moderate. times were good when he was a governor. and then you saw, though, his poll numbers just really whoosh as soon as kavanaugh appeared.

>> one of the issues is the price of prosperity to some extent there are a lot of voters in tennessee that have come, a lot of voters throughout the south who have come because these governors have done a really good job recruiting industry. people come. and people have foorgd a long time that this will turn all these states purple. bill haslem, who is the outgoing governor of tennessee has a great theory that actually what happens is the people who move to these more conservative states in a way are able to more fully embrace what they feel politically, but if they're in a blue state that. >> don't want to own it. and they have permission to be more what they are when they come down. and i think there is some of that. i also don't think -- i know we're going to seek desperately to find lessons state by state. bredesen is an example of running a centrist campaign. very senior republican, exactly what you said. if you're going recruit a candidate, this is who you recruit. but then the florida

gubernatorial result, the texas result, so candidates who ran depending on what happens with abrams in georgia, the progressive campaign doesn't seem to be an automatic winner any more than the centrist one. >> an argument was, though, that in texas, phil bredesen probably would have succeeded against ted cruz because he was running in an electorate that was more moderate. >> but i think texas, texas is an incredible upset. cruz won his last election by close to 17 points. hillary lost by 9. the fact that we are talking about even 2 percentage points, 3 is a revolution in texas. the fact that pete session lost his congressional seat, someone that has been an 11-time incumbent, that is a revolution. and then at the same time, all of the sudden they elected ten new democratic members to the state house. all of the sudden the electoral map in texas, redistricting is on the map. beto did what he was expected to do. the fact that he came so close,

that is going to be the next epicenter. >> he brought a lot of candidates along for the ride with him. >> but the major difference with tennessee versus georgia or florida is it wasn't the party establishment candidates that were the nominees. let's not forget. no one saw gillum coming. he wasn't even registering in the polls. and abrams was not what they were looking for as a candidate. but they said give me a shot, and to their democratic primary voters and said let's see what happens if we put a progressive in there. but that i think was much different than what we saw in tennessee who they really sought to put up a really good candidate via the establishment. >> but i think also saying is the traditional tennesseean actually voted for phil bredesen. what you're seeing is a lot of new individuals that are coming in. >> right. >> and owning tennessee that don't have -- don't espouse those political traditions. >> right. >> and they're the ones who brought in. >> but that's also why we saw the polling go the way it went,

because they couldn't account for the new voters because they weren't expecting them to show up that much. >> have you talked about 1966 yet? >> well, you're jumping far. let's pace ourselves. i thought you were going to start in 1607 with jamestown and work your way forward. >> we do have the midterms after the alienist sedition act. it was hell of a thing. >> this is why we have you here. >> i know, i know. if people aren't asleep now, we're going to take care of it. >> we just lost the entire west coast. >> on a texas point, 52 years ago, in the 7th district of texas, a young guy, george herbert walker bush becomes the first republican. that seat flipped to the democrats tonight. >> adrien, you're waiting patiently across the studio. sigh you over there. let's talk about big picture. let's take it up to 30,000 feet about what happened right now. we heard from the democratic governor's association. they're excited. big night. lost some. they hoped to grab some others they weren't sure they would. they flipped a bunch of seats. obviously the house falls in

their hands, and all that implies not just for the house, but for the president of the united states. what does it look like from the democratic position? >> well, a couple of things. first of all, when it comes to governing, i think that first of all democrats have got to make sure that they are not just trying to hold the trump administration accountable through subpoenas and through congressional investigations because a lot of the progressive wing of the party wants that, but at the same time they've got to legislate, because independents and white suburban voters in particular who of course that ultimate swing vote, they voted for democrats in this cycle because they actually want to see something fixed on health care. they want to see bipartisan policy solutions put into place. so i think democrats have got to make sure that they don't just, you know, only try to hold trump accountable and talk about impeachment. they've also got to legislate at the same time. going into 2020, which i know we don't want to get too ahead of our skis here. >> go for it! >> might as well, right? the polls are closed. >> go ahead. >> look, i want to touch on

something that maria therese is a kumar said about beto o'rourke. the fact the texan came this close bodes very well for texas in 2020. we have a couple of state, arizona, texas, that are ripe for the picking for democrats in 2020. the map has been expanded. democrats have done a great job of borrego more voters into the fold, and i think that will be something that trends more positively for democrats going forward. >> we'll see what happens in georgia, if we get the ultimate result. but the three so-called rock stars of the democratic party, andrew gillum, beto o'rourke, and stacey abrams, they lost, but by small margins. >> well, they lost, but now the democrats actually have a base that more reflects this new generation of progressive movement. but i do want the highlight, the fact that even that the democrats did so well, it doesn't mean that they're doing well in preparing the bench -- excuse me, the electoral college for the 2020 elections. and what i mean by that is while we may have gone ahead and flipped the house, we didn't win in the deep rural area, and the way the electoral map is done,

those still favor the white house right now. and i think that's going to be the challenge. while we're doing well in the house are we actually setting up to win the white house. >> well, as the results rolled in, speaking of the white house, the president declared the midterms a success. more on his influence of the new congress. he will have to try to work with to some extent when our special election coverage continues with more arcane historical references from jon meacham at 4:14 in the morning. we'll be right back. everything was so fresh in the beginning... but that plug quickly faded. luckily there's new febreze plug. it cleans away odors and freshens for 1200 hours. breathe happy with new febreze plug. get stronger... get closer. start listening today to the world's largest selection of audiobooks on audible. and now, get more. for just $14.95 a month, you'll get a credit a month good for any audiobook,

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i want to give a victory speech on the evening of election day, which is coming up very quickly, a vote for morrissey is a vote for me. a vote for marsha is really a vote for me. i'm not on the ballot, but in a certain way, i'm on the ballot. so please go out and vote. and a vote for cindy is a vote for me. and a vote for steve a vote for me. remember this, a vote for david is a vote for me and our agenda to make america great again. >> president trump made it clear, as you heard there, the midterm elections were about him. during the closing weeks of the midterm campaign cycle, he hit the road hard to spread that message. in the last six days of the campaign, president trump held 11 rallies across eight battleground states. since he took office, the president has held 53 rallies in

23 state, including 30 since labor day. leigh ann caldwell is a capitol hill reporter. she joins us now from washington. leigh ann, let's talk about some of your reporting. he was in the state of tennessee. marsha blackburn won. you go in the state of indiana, braun one. you go into the state of missouri, hawley one. the state of iowa, mike dewine. he is claiming some measure of victory tonight. >> that's right. and they should. it ended up being a very tribal election. red state democrats did not do well tonight. one of the things that was really fascinating for me was the tennessee race. phil bredesen, he only won a few counties there, but last time he ran for governor, he won every single county in that state. so there is a major discrepancy and difference between his last run for governor and the election results tonight. as far as where trump is going

to work with congress, still waits to be seen. both sides are talking about infrastructure. they always say that transportation and infrastructure used to be a bipartisan thing, and they put out the challenge to see if it will be bipartisan again. there is a couple of models out here with this divided government. you go back to 1994, and newt gingrich worked closely with bill clinton to pass a major bill, including welfare reform. but in 2010, when the republicans took back the house with obama in control and the presidency, republicans did not do hardly anything to work with obama. they tried to stifle him every step of the way. it will be really interesting to see how serious democrats and the administration are in trying to get anything done. especially as all these investigations are going to be opened, and if trump is willing

to work with democrats simultaneously while he is being investigated on a daily basis, willie. >> yeah, susan, do you have any reason to believe that the president is suddenly going to snap to and be into bipartisanship, especially when they're trying to get his tax returns and they're coming at him with everything they have? >> not even that much. >> right. >> and there is something to say that the president always puts himself first. so if he does see any of this way of this working to his benefit, he will do it. but i think he likes having issues like -- i don't think he wants to solve immigration. i think he wants to use it as an issue. he wants to say that we're not having infrastructure because i can't work with the democrats. so i think he'd rather have them as issues to campaign on. >> right. >> because we've now heard, he is going back on the campaign trail, like soon. he likes these rallies. he is going to keep doing them. so he needs that foil. i think he'll like that more than ca compromise. >> do you think the caravan disappears now? it was obviously a tool he was using to get people out to vote

tonight. >> right. >> does it go away? >> i think it's going to start dissipating. and clearly backfired on him in wakes because even in a place like texas and a place like arizona, places where he actually needed much more stronger voters to come out, they didn't. in the midwest demonstrated that that was neutral ides, especially amongst suburban moms. we are going to see him pivot a little bit. >> i don't know if it works so much against him where he wanted to get voter turnout. because he was going into the red states. he was looking to get his base out. he knew he couldn't expand because he had no appeal to any other type of voter. >> i don't disagree, but he expected it to play much better in place likes texas and the midwest, and it back fired. i think if anything, it neutralizinged a lot of suburban moms who all they could think of is basically this idea of babies in cages. the polls showed -- and they cared about immigration. >> let's bring into the conversation victoria di francesco, nbc contributor and

lecturer at the l bj school. let's take up this question of immigration and how important you believe it was tonight. obviously the president was banging the drum on this caravan as some imaginary threat to the border of the united states, sending down troops and putting up concertina wire. how important do you believe immigration was in our exit polling? 23% of voters said it was the most important issue. >> since donald trump descended from the escalators in trump tower in 2015, immigration has been at the top of his list, because he knows it can mobilize that base. it is pure red meat to that base. he used it in his 2016 campaign. he is using it at different points throughout his administration. and in the last couple of week, he has ramped it up. in an ideal world, i would like to think that over the next two years, maybe with the democratic

congress, donald trump the deal maker could find some sort of deal. but i'm going the lean here with more with susan in that i think that he needs this as a foil. he needs the democrats to compare and con tratrast in say look, he has all of these criminals, bad hombres coming over. you need to keep me in office past 2020. immigration, even though he may make noises of finding a resolution, he needs to keep there it. he is definitely not going to get money for the border wall with the democratic congress, but he is going to do anything he can to keep it on the radar screen for that base. >> well, he's got to keep it around if he wants to get reelected. he thinks it's his best vehicle. he thinks it's why he is in the white house in the first place. jo jon, give us a little hope here. when donald trump was elected, i think some hoped, perhaps it was wishful thinking, that he would act as this deal maker that he portrays himself as. that he would get in a room with chuck and nancy as he likes to call them, and cut a deal.

chuck, you and me, a couple of new york guys. that hasn't happened. you see any reason for that to change with the democratic house? >> i don't, because i don't think he sees history or governing in the same -- with the same incentive structure the previous 43 people who have had that job have done. you count grover cleveland twice, because i knew you were about to. >> let's not go there. go ahead. >> there are -- i used to think this wouldn't -- possibly he was not a tragic figure, the president because in classic greek terms you have to have great scope to be tragic. i've changed my mind on that because he has the possibility, not the capacity, but the possibility of almost innumerable nixon to china moment. >> yeah. >> if he wanted to do immigration, he could do

immigration. >> reform. >> infrastructure, entitlement reform, there are a any number of things that if you could take some of the showman energy, just part of it and sort of funnel it, if you could take the professional wrestling energy and get a little brookings institution, you would actually have something here. but it's all going to stay over here, i think. the hope i think is that this was -- there is sort of a spectrum here. there is jfk and george w. bush. george w. won a couple of seats. president kennedy only lost three or four after the missile crisis in terms of first term -- first term midterm. but then there the truman, clinton, obama, where you totally get wiped out. sort of as ever, trump sort of defies easy categorization. he is in the middle here. it's more like 1982. it's more like 2006. which is it's a bad night, but it's not such an existential scare that it's going to scare him into the substance.

>> don't those possibilities only exist because donald trump has no core principles? because he's willing to maneuver any way if he wants to and finds it beneficial. >> i don't want to say he has core principles because all the evidence is against it, but in a way that doesn't matter at least in the terms of the context of this conversation. the presidents we remember, that we tend to want to both emulate and commemorate are the ones who have reached beyond their base for whatever reason. >> without selling their principles out, though. that's one of the things we look to our leaders for is to stay true to their principles and still get things done, and that's real leadership. >> donald trump have that. >> that's what i'm saying. the possibilities i guess are endless in a lot of ways because he is willing to go wherever he thinks it's going to benefit him without having any care about immigration. >> basically, a true leader is basically all of the sudden governoring for the rest of the country and unifying everybody. he doesn't think about the rest

of the country. i think the idea that you sparked, what will be interesting is if this immigration turnout backfired, will he shake up his inner circle? will he shake up steve miller? will he shake up john kelly? are they the one he decides you gave me the wrong advice week, in deeper problem than we possibly could have imagined and do you see a shake-up there. >> i don't think those two are going somewhere, but jeff session, lindsey graham. >> and lindsey graham is like passing his resume. >> not to be totally debbie downer, but i think he is going to dig in more to this strategy of political segregation because he is going the see this as the house he had been primed that that was probably going to fall. but the senate, it's looking pretty good for him. and all these major governorships. >> two weeks ago, "the new yorker" reported that john kelly has been bringing everybody in precisely for the scenario of what would happen when they started going under investigation. but we also know that that relationship with john kelly is

incredibly tenuous, and he doesn't have someone that he can go into congress right now and represent him. is he going to shake him up? i wouldn't be surprised if he would do that. >> i think he continues to think of us as an audience, not a as a country. so he is used to having some people boo him. part of the crowd is supposed. to part of the crowd is supposed to yell for you. i don't think there is going to be some sort of a clark kent moment here where he merges as lyndon johnson, deal maker. i don't think that's going to happen. the good news here is the house in democratic hands is a greater check on the potential extreme actions of the administration, and you hope that the message to the progressive side of the country is not that you work really hard and you don't get it so much, but you work hard and elections don't always determine everything. you have to keep pressing on. >> we have fit in the break, mostly to cover the cost of

jon's exorbitant commercial fee. we'll take care of that. when we come back, an update on another california house race. yeah, they're still coming in. and later, we'll talk about a historic wave of women going to congress. msnbc's special election coverage continues live now at 4:30 a.m. on the east coast, 1:30 out west. we'll be right back on msnbc.

♪ welcome back to our live coverage. i'm sorry to bring this up, but the number on the lower left of your screen, countdown to the 2020 elections. it's but 727 days away. welcome back to msnbc's live coverage. yeah, it's live at 4:33 in the morning here in new york city. it's 133 a.m. out west.

if you're still up on the west coast, good for you. you're having a big night. stay with us for a couple more hours. the great, the legend mike barnicle, he was wandering down 50th street, we waved him upstairs and he sat down in a chair, completely uninvited. >> wasn't it a silver alert when you lose the elderly at disneyland? . what am i doing here? >> it's a roast. we invited you here for a roast. >> mr. barnacle, is that daffy duck. >> so mike, you just sat down. you've been watching the results come in. i'm sure you've been up all night watching the result. >> yes. >> democrats win the house. republicans pick up a couple seats in the senate. donald trump has to deal with nancy pelosi. he has to deal with adam schiff, jerry nadler. all the democrats who control the committees. what do the next two years look like in this country? >> chaos. chaos, because i don't think donald trump thinks about anything that you just mentioned. i think he thinks i had a

wonderful night meeting myself. i did it. i think he has no regard for the fact that the house is now going to have some check on him. hopefully, susan, we were talking off camera, you should feel a bit better about the fact that we now have a governor, so to speak, on trump's behavior a bit. but i don't think he is thinking anything of that. i think he is so enthralled of what he thinks he did personally, and he did. he had a big night. he had a big night. yankees, the places we were talking about before you sat down where he was the last couple of days, republicans won. they won this the places where he held his rallies, but they did lose the house. joining us from los angeles, nbc news cold front cal perry as well as the chief strategist for the serve america, served as deputy campaign manager for john mccain's presidential campaign and deputy campaign manager for arnold schwarzenegger's successful 2006 reelection campaign in california.

reed, let me begin with you. your broad stroke thoughts about the night for republicans. >> the fact that they could have as many as a ten-seat majority in the united states senate is going telecommunication to make mitch mcconnell very happy, a although they've lost the house. i would assume that they're going to continue pushing through their juveniles and whatever it is they can do from the senate perspective. so i think they've got to feel pretty good about that. just to echo something that mike said, i think he is absolutely right. you know we can talk about the democrats owning the house and having all these investigative powers. you to assume first that the president cares. and i'm not entirely sure that the he does. he has shown that he is willing to issue executive orders, even if he knows they have no basis in law, statutory or otherwise. so i think that as we move forward, we have to get out of what i think we're all guilty of is this conventional thinking that the president's just going to start to fall into line because now someone else is in charge of the united states house of representatives. >> i don't think he is going to fool in line, i don't think anyone is foolish enough to

think that of three years of being a candidate and the president. but there will be new pressure on him from the house that hasn't been for two years. >> the fact that the democrats are now actually going to be the function of what the u.s. house of representatives demands, and that is checks and balances, that is a good day for all americans and institutions. the challenge this president, what the he thrives on is chaos. he was going to stress test the system and push the democrats as far as they can possibly go. and that we have to make sure that they do it in a way that is smart, that they actually know how to pivot appropriately, because i think one of the challenges is he knows how to dominate not only the conversation, but also the story. >> so, cal, we're still at 1:37 west coast time getting some poll -- polls have closed, but we're still getting results out of the state of california. what are they looking like? >> of the 53 congressional districts out here in california, 34 have gone to democrats. those have been won by democrats. seven have gone to republicans. that is your scoreboard as of right now. 12 are still up for grabs.

we want though you very quickly the california 25th, reed and i were just talking about this. we were framing this and reed, jump in here, in a conversation about the future perhaps of the democratic party. now katie hill is very young. she is 31 years old. she is a progressive. maybe she is the future in ten years, 12 years. but while have i you read, i also want to show you minnesota. take a look at amy klobuchar. take a look what she won by. i know the rules for running for president have gone out the window. is this potentially a night for democrats? >> first and foremost, katie hill very young as far as politics is concerned. i think she has raised $7 million for a united states house seat which is an incredible amount of money. and i think when it comes to 2020 as we've seen, we have 727 days, as willie was so kind to put up for us there. is going to be 20 some democrats. if we think about going back to then senator obama who had only been in the senate two years, donald trump who wasn't a professional politician, i don't

think there are any rules as far as who gets to run for president now, the idea of waiting your turn is probably out the window at this point. >> willie, winning the house for democrats seemed to have been the requirement going into tonight. california is certainly going to be an indicator of how much they do that by. it's easy to get depressed. this is a country that is split. it is now split within the government as well. but, look, in every election, there are takeaways. and maybe the future is here in some ways. davids from the kansas, deb holland, two western states, these are the first ever native american women who have been elected to the u.s. congress. it's something to mark in 2018 in a year in which we saw in another western state, north dakota, an effort to suppress the voter of native americans. those two women will be entering the house this year, willie. >> and we have our first two muslim women elected to congress as well, one in minnesota, one in the state of michigan.

cal, thanks very much. you're watching msnbc's live coverage, i did say live. it's 4:40 in the morning of the midterm elections. we've got a lot more ahead. we're coming right back. today is the day you're going to get motivated...

get stronger... get closer. start listening today to the world's largest selection of audiobooks on audible. and now, get more. for just $14.95 a month, you'll get a credit a month good for any audiobook, plus two audible originals exclusive titles you can't find anywhere else. if you don't like a book,

you can exchange it any time, no questions asked. automatically roll your credits over to the next month if you don't use them. with the free audible app, you can listen anytime, and anywhere. plus for the first time ever, you'll get access to exclusive fitness programs a $95 value free with membership. start a 30-day trial today and your first audiobook is free. cancel anytime and your books are yours to keep forever. audible. the most inspiring minds. the most compelling stories. text "listen5" to 500500 to start your free trial today. ♪ one of the accomplishments president trump could out the on the campaign trail was brett kavanaugh's confirmation to the supreme court. it was just over one month ago we were talking about sexual

assault accusations at an fbi investigation in what was the most divisive confirmation hearing in recent memory. exit polls show 48% of americans opposed kavanaugh's nomination, 48%, with 43% supporting it. one of the other big factors this election night was independent voters. by more than a ten-point margin, voters who described themselves as independent reported casting themselves for house democrats over republicans. independent voters made up 3 in 10 voters casting ballots in today's midterm elections. it's a big swing for independents who have not gone nationally for democrats since 2008 when barack obama was elected president. maria, what's theniti significa of that independent number? >> one in six voters who basically sat it out last time came and represented this time. and you had one out of ten voters that were brand-new voters. basically, energized. we saw in this past midterm

election levels of participation that we see normally that we attribute to presidential elections. and that means that people want a different change. they want a different direction for the country, and this many times was a referendum on the president, hands-down. >> susan, i mentioned brett kavanaugh and the way voters feel about him. it did matter in some place. if you look at the vulnerable democrats, some of them who voted against draw, donnelly lost. heitkamp lost, mccaskill lost. bill nelson looks like he is going to lose. it's not the only reason they lost. ones who voted for kma's nomination, joe manchin won in the state of west virginia. do you think kavanaugh played big in some of the cases? >> i think it played big. i think the issue was probably not foremost on people's minds until donald trump kind of ramped i want up and reminded them. again, going into the deep red states. what's interesting about the independent number and the independents, a lot of them may have supported donald trump because they were just trying something new. they said i can't support

hillary clinton. let me try him. and now that they tried him, they don't want him. and that's why i think they turned and a we'll continue to see them turn on president trump. >> jonathan lemire, the white house reporter for the associated press still with us. jonathan, do you get the sense that donald trump now turns the corner toward 2020? we were talking about the issue of immigration. it's a horse he has been on since he descended the escalator and carried him into the white house. is he thinking now about reelection? >> oh, yes. that's already begun to cross his mind. according to our reporting. and immigration is going to play a big part in this. he told news an interview we did with him a couple of weeks back that he felt like this election was starting to remind him of 2016, in part because of late focus on immigration. i don't expect any modulation of his tone. the dark rhetoric, the fearmongering if you will from the president, that will continue. he has told people around him, those close to the president that he feels that's the key to the success.

the republicans did have today. that, yes, according to some people we talked, to it probably hurt republicans in keeping some moderate suburban house districts. but this played really well in the senate red states, the trump states where we saw republican senators keep their seat tonight or win new seats. and that's the sort of rhetoric that is going to continue. and he feels like that could be something he plays going to 2020, and he has been companying ahe -- peeking ahead a little bit. two states already circled as wins for him and republicans. ohio, the republican governor won. florida, senate and governor. and let's just say florida and ohio would be key to his 2020 hopes. >> absolutely. he is focusing on all those things. i started to use the word humility and then caught myself, but is there anything he may learn or be humbled by tonight

potentially in terms of the suburban district, some of the midwestern states, take wisconsin where scott walker has now lost the governor's mansion? where he would say look, i won wisconsin by 22,000 votes. i was lucky to get out of there. those are the state, the counterclockwise that took me to the white house. and maybe i'm starting to bleed some of those people who took a chance on me in '16? >> no. >> okay. >> certainly nothing that he has given any sort of indication that that's part of it. people we talked to, i talked to senior aides late this afternoon, early this evening as results were starting to come in. much was made of a comment trump made in an interview a few days ago where he said he might want to change his tone. but he meant in specific circumstances according to an aide i talked to. don't expect broad strokes or major changes. let's point out, hours after that interview aired, he was back to his usual self on the rally attacking democrats and demonizing his opponents. there is no sense that that is going to change. he feels like he is president buzz of the way he played to and

took care of his base. he still thinks that's the key going forward. i think there will be some markmark measured attempts at bipartisanship, but largely he is going to use the democrats as a foil. the white house hopes to rebut these investigations. they know it's a worry. you heard kellyanne conway tonight. she told reporters at the white house late this evening that she feels that the democrats who have come to power, that that's not what they should be focusing on. that's not why voters put them there. there is certainly going to be some effort to ward that off. but trump also will welcome nancy pelosi as his new foil. the one he has sort of lacked since the 2016 campaign ended. he had hillary clinton. since then he has been casting about a little bit, settling on the media mostly as his opponent. i think this is going to be deeper and deeper divisions and higher partisan warfare. >> it's another foil for the president. if you're just waking up on the east coast, democrats have the house. republicans keeping the senate. more on what those results mean for washington when msnbc's live election coverage continues

right after a break.

welcome back to msnbc's live coverage. jon meacham, live coverage coming up on 5:00 in the morning here on the east coast. there is jon meacham. just a gratuitous shot. the great historian. one of the major stories out of the election series the new group of women heading to congress, many of whom are flipping house seats from red to flu bleu. kendra horn is expected to defeat incumbent congressman steve russell, flipping a seat that's been republican since 1975. in pennsylvania, chrissy houlahan claims the state's sixth district north and west of philadelphia. this was an open race after congressman ryan costello announced earlier this year he would not seek reelection. and as i mentioned earlier, we'll see the first muslim women

heading to congress in january. rasheedah tlaib will represent michigan's 13th district, while ilhan omarer will replace keith ellison in minnesota's fifth district. history also made in massachusetts with ayanna pressley becoming the state's first black congresswoman. adrians just a snapshot of some of the new faces we'll see in congress, many of them women, many of them young women coming in to this 116th congress. >> yeah, willie, it's so exciting to see this happen. we've got as you mentioned over 100 women who will serve in the house of representatives, which is making history. you have women like abigail spanberger who defeated dave bureaucrat who of course defeated eric kanter. so that's a sweet victory for democrats. i want to give a shout out to my friend haley stevens who flipped michigan from red to blue. we served on hillary clinton's 5

first presidential campaign together. so there is a lot of really big, bright spots out there. and lot of the women are young. they're young millennials. they have a bright future in congress. and as we talked about earlier, democrats are really building the bench that will serve our party well going into the future. >> and maria, we haven't mentioned the name because she didn't have an opponent, but alexandria ocasio cortez officially became the youngest woman to serve in congress at 29 years old. >> she is the youngest, but then we also have the very first two native americans, texas has the first two latinas heading into congress. and all of the sudden you have a bench of 900 women who said they wanted to throw their hat in the ring in 2016 on emily's list after this president was elected, as of two weeks ago, 43,000 women have said they want to run for office. so this is just the beginning of a wave. and we're talking about not just members filling the house, but state house. that is where you see a deep change in the democratic party. >> well, that's the effect, isn't it, susan, of young women

seeing these faces on tv, seeing them win, seeing them move into congress that has been the domain of older men in dark suits typically now. it broadens the playing field. >> if you looked at that judiciary hearing you see a lot of old white men, and they were republicans. and we didn't have any republican women in that hearing. and that's what's really hurting the republican party. we need to see much more diversity among the republican party. we have no ethnic diversity. we have very few women rung. well desperately need to support women. what's also interesting is republican women tend to identify themselves more as republican party voters versus men who think of themselves as trump republican voters. so we need people who want to build within the party instead of just kind of stepping on it, like a lot of the trump supporters do. so that would be a great change to see in the next cycle. >> you know, in a sense, willie, when you look at the results,

the results of this evening's elections, the last evening's elections, in the long run, are less important than the demographic changes in both parties, because we've seen last night and we're talking about it now the republican party is becoming more rural, more conservative, more isolated, less diverse. the democratic party is becoming younger, it's becoming much more diverse, and this election is a snapshot, and we're going to repeat the camera angle two years from now. but the party's demographic bases are changing rapidly and in the wrong direction for the republicans. >> we'll see if democrats pick a candidate in 2020 to match that energy on the democratic side. adrienne elrod, thank you so much for joining us tonight, for being up so early. we appreciate it. we've got another hour of coverage. >> huh? >> that's right. we have another hour. and then three hours of morning joe after that. everybody's coming upstairs. >> you didn't tell me that. >> "morning joe" live frstartin

at 6:00 a.m. east coast time. but one more hour of was when we come right back.