>> if it's the holidays, it's a special year-end edition of "mtp daily". good evening. i'm chuck todd. as we close the book on 2018 or at least try to we're gearing up for a spectacle unlike any other in modern history. it's the trump reelection fight. as the end of the year mess in congress has shown us, 2019 is going to be wild. why? because it's also going to be a whole lot about 2020, especially for this president. who filed his reelection

paperwork the day he took office. think about that. nobody has ever done that before. no sitting president had ever launched their reelection campaign that early. everything in the political universe. every legislative decision. every white house decision. every major news story in 2019 is going to be viewed through the prizm of 2020. so all this hour we're going to dive into the big questions that will be answered in 2019 like who is going to actually get in and when? how nasty is it going to get between house democrats and the president? and if things go south in the white house, how are they going to react? which is where we begin tonight's show with the president trump presidency that is vulnerable to a reelection disaster. let us count the ways. in a clear rebuke of the president, democrats won 40 house seats. their best midterm election showing since water gate. the president's legal woes are unprecedented in size and scope. and like sharks drawn to blood in the water we could see 30 plus legitimate democratic

candidates vying to take trump on. we could see something like we hadn't seen in a generation, a serious primary challenge from within the president's own party. this is a president who relishes a fight and is willing to play dirty. on the eve of a mere midterm election he falsely claimed this country was being invaded. he mobilized and politicized the military and painted democrats as the literal angry mob, and he warned donors of violence if his side lost. now, just imagine what he might do leading up to a contest where his name is on the ballot. like i said, get ready for an unpredictable spectacle unlike any other in modern history. it's right around the corner. let's bring in tonight's panel. capitol hill reporter lee ann caldwell. michael steele.

carrie dan, and cornell belcher. welcome. it seems like for us to say boy, 2019 is going to be wild. 2020, and we're still recovering from the mess that is the post election massacre. what have we learned from that that tells us how crazy 2019 is going to be? >> i think, first of all, 2018 is going to continue into 2019. >> there's no stopping? >> no. now that democrats control the house of representatives, these investigations are only going to expand into the president and so that is also going to be caught up in the presidential election, and the primary. and so i don't think we're going to see a clear division. i think we're going to see more of the same of what we've already seen only it's going to escalate. >> michael steele, previous presidents when they've had a midterm setback acknowledged it. this one did not.

how much harder does that make it for congressional republicans to recalibrate? >> i think every previous president has said some humility in accepting a midterm loss. this president knows one mode, forward, attack, offense. as he feels more threatened and closed in, he's oscillating and swinging more wildly and fighting leak -- like a cornered badger. it's only going to get worse when he faces democrats in charge of house committees in the next year. >> cornell, he seems to be oblivious to what happened in november. >> i think it's almost 10 million more votes in the popular vote. >> nearly a nine point advantage, i believe, the raw vote. right? >> right. sort of 10 million more votes, that's a large margin. right. and you go into it looking at republicans losing suburbs in the way they haven't lost before, and democrats winning college educated white women in a way they hadn't before. and look at the battle ground

states. if republicans can't compete in the suburbs around philadelphia, they can't win pennsylvania. that blue wall that we talked about crumbling, i think that blue wall is being rebuilt because of the shenanigans of this president. >> and it's not just the president saying it. it's also republican voters did not see about half of republican voters said this message wasn't the result of the midterms were not a referendum on the president, and the majority of them said they're happy with the results of the election. the republican base in general has not received any kind of message. what they've heard from the president is we won the senate. they didn't hear shellacked which is what barack obama said or a thumping. >> it's worse than that because that's what it is in the president's head. it's not that i lost the house, it's i held the senate, and the house guys that lost, those were the wimps. those were the weaklings who wouldn't stand with me and my agenda. and that's why they lost because the american people are with me.

>> if you're a republican senator sitting in a blue state like colorado, for example, you have to be terrified by that. because your fortune is unfortunately tied to donald trump, and it's hard to win some of these battle ground states this way. >> lee ann, the divide between center right independent and the base of the republican party -- how does -- i mean, donald trump has a problem. he caters to this base, and they reinforce each other as they get smaller. he's a long way away from the center right independent. >> in 2020 we'll have two issues. we'll have the house and senate races and the presidential race which is a different but same electorate. right? as far as the base is concerned, the president keeps governing for the base and do the center right independents vote independent? that's where it becomes a binary choice. it's going to matter who the

democrats put up. a lot of people will still say that trump won because it was a choice between hillary clinton and donald trump and too many people couldn't vote for hillary clinton. the problem is that democrats have also not figured out how to run against trump. i think it's going to be very difficult for them because he is a master attacker, and it sticks what he says sticks. >> i hear that and i respect that. but here's my fundamental problem with that. i think it's a fluke we have a president that lost the popular vote by such a stretch. i think it's a fluke that we -- >> it's weird -- that margin, i don't think it can be duplicated. it does not -- >> right. that's my point. i think it's an outlier. when you look at wisconsin and pennsylvania, when you look at michigan, you look at the margin there, i just don't think that he's going to be able to win those states with the same 46 % he was able to win them in the last election.

i might be wrong, but i don't think he's going to be able to do that. >> the slim possibility that pelosi is the democratic nominee in 2020, there's not going to be a uniquely polarizing well known democratic nominee than hillary clinton was. >> there's also a huge wild card here which is if the economy is not in as strong of a place as it is now, i mean, we saw in our latest wall street journal poll, a little bit of concern from voters about the economy. people saying yeah, this past year was really good for me, but i'm worried about what's going to happen the next year or two if the economy is starting a downturn heading into this election, donald trump's resilience with even the sort of center right republicans who are kind enough to give him ground -- >> tariffs. >> it's going to evaporate. >> i feel like you guys are team congress for me. who are the -- you know, there was -- there's members of congress, think of oren hatch, but there's the but the economy republicans.

they acknowledge they don't like how he does this, but the economy. who do the but the economy republicans, what happens to them if the economy starts tanking? who are the ones to watch to see if they walk fully away from him? >> you go. >> i think i would add but the economy and but gorsuch and kavanaugh. it's people skeptical of the president. >> exactly. the first two i look at are cory gardener and thom tillis. running for reelection in states trending not blue -- >> i think colorado is blue. >> north carolina, pure swing state. >> those are folks who both on certain issues have been willing to demonstrate independence from the president. i assume it will increase with the economy goes south. >> i am hearing there are members who say -- people say they expect their members to be more vocal, be more critical in the next years.

people have told me this. members aren't necessarily up in 2020, but i think there is a frustration there. the russia probe is getting closer and closer. these investigations as we already talked about are going to expand. if the president -- and the president hasn't been able to prove that he's able to govern without anything being chaotic. and so if the -- if his base konlts -- continues to support him but that base is tightening and tightening and then getting back to these center right republicans, i mean, they're going to be critical on how these members respond. >> all right. i think our last poll showed the base may be down to 34%. big enough to cause problems, not big enough to win elections. up ahead with the presidential election on the horizon, when are democratic hopefuls going to jump into the race? a few of them have. we're going to talk 2020 strategy in 2019 next. i don't keep track of regrets.

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welcome back. 2019 isn't just going to be about who is running for president but also when they announce potential democratic candidates are already gauging their best moment to officially make the big leap. kamala harris said earlier this month that she will make her presidential decision over the holidays. okay. harris needs to make a name for herself to stand out from the pack of senators that will all be going around iowa. sooner may be better for someone like her. on the other hand you have joe biden saying january would be way too early to publicly announce his campaign. biden is near the top of the few polls out right now, and the thinking may be the longer he stays off the trail, the longer he can avoid the fray. let's bring back our political experts. lee ann, michael, carrie and cornell. it's interesting here. i want to put up when candidates

get in on the 2016 race. it was cruz first. the senators all got in first. cruz, paul, rubio. then jeb bush and donald trump got in in june. hillary clinton announced in april. i think bernie sanders right around the same time. we're in announcement season now, aren't we? >> of course. and people are already making trips. people are already working on putting their staffs together. making those kind of early telephone calls to activists in early primary states. and we know we're going to have debates starting in june. we are not very far out from those debates starting. i think there is an imperative for some of the candidates who don't necessarily know what their fund raising ability is going to be like to get in earlier. one of the big demands is they want somebody who can solicit a lot of small dollar do nations. the later people get in, the harder it is to do. i think that's part of the push to get in early is i want to make sure that i can prove to people that i can raise money

from regular people and not from super pacs early on in the campaign. >> there's only two candidates that seem they shouldn't think about getting in early. biden and sanders. early seems to be not great for them. everybody else needs to get in now. >> if you're people sitting at the top, you want a shorter campaign. if you're one of the people who are less known, you need a longer campaign. you need to raise your name identification and go through the rigors of it. you know what? from the beginning of that campaign in 2008 to the end of that campaign, barack obama was so much better. and the rigors of it helped him be a better candidate in the end. a lot of those names are not well-tested. they need to get in early. try to make a name for themselves. try to get tested. take a punch and see if you can throw a punch in the primaries. >> elizabeth warren is getting the first vetting, i would argue. a lot of people want to say well, she's showing a glass thumb.

i'm thinking no, this is your first hit. >> she stepped on the bear trap first. >> it's coming. what we're going to find, it's not going to be about who avoids hits, it's two survives them. >> who can take a punch and get back in there and counterpunch. a lot of these guys could have glass jaws. a lot of guys haven't had a real contest like this. it's going to be an interesting process right up to the end. >> the capitol hill candidates, there are a dozen of them. whether it's -- what is it claire mccaskill joked the other day, she goes half these people are running. i don't think she was joking. you have all these house democrats. how does that impact the leadership? i think pelosi and especially schumer have a real challenge. >> oh, they do. this challenge especially for schumer started two years ago too. he tried to keep the party together as much as possible.

he did a pretty decent job. there were some issues like immigration and some prescription drug things that caused him some headaches. that's only going to escalate. and it's not a good sign for any sort of legislating, let's just say. >> let's put up the des moines register poll. what i thought was great about the poll that came out is it showed us the tiers. tier one was top four candidates of biden, sanders, o'roarke and warren. they were 32, 19, and 8 respectively. then a second tier of the sort of mid level single digit harris, booker, klobuchar. then the other dozen. obviously the big shock was beto o'rourke. >> i think that was the most informative of that poll. biden and sanders at the top is not that interesting at this stage. they're going to be at the top of all national polls. it's interesting to look at

their favorability within the party specifically. the democrats still have the warm fuzzies for joe biden. and maybe to slightly lesser degree to bernie sanders. they're still likable. the same poll showed hillary clinton did not have any kind of bounceback. the democratic party is still angry and upset with her. iowa democrats not into michael bloomberg as well. you can look at the favorable ratings and those things. but i think o'roarke jumping into that first tier right away did show how much momentum he has early. the trouble is he has to translate it into the doing the work in iowa. >> cornell, obviously november, 2006, the buzz name was obama. >> yep. well. >> november of '0 6, it was like will he do it, but he was clearly the new guy. beto is now in that position? >> yes. but remember that barack obama when he jumped in he was also running behind hillary 20 points everywhere. >> okay. o'roarke is 20 points behind biden.

>> i'm a pollster. i love polls. right now they're meaningless. >> o'roarke jumping to double digits in an iowa poll? that's meaningless? >> that's kind of a big deal. >> thank you. i wanted to dismiss polling early, but i always say it's not for the leader. i'm curious who is popping in the middle. >> he energizes something in an obama way that's outsider and right. you have a lot of insiders running for president. i like the chances of the outside candidate. >> yes. if you look at this top tier and it's three long-time washington senators and i realize o'roarke is a congressman, but he's not thought of as a washington insider and he's a generation younger than the rest of the top tier, that's a nice place to be for him if he can translate it into the votes and do the work. >> beto is young. let's go to bernie sanders. i've been trying to figure out

can bernie replicate what he did in 2016? >> i've been trying to figure that out. he never really stopped running, and so he has a lot more competition. he was the new thing four years ago. i don't have an answer for that. it's going to be hard. it's going to be a challenge for bernie sanders. >> listen, i have a great deal of respect for senator sanders, but the truth of the matter is if he couldn't find a way to get -- to beat hillary clinton the last time around, i don't see how he cobbles it together and beats this field. i would argue that -- >> you don't think he -- he can't make the case the nomination should have been his, she basically jerry rigged it? >> that's b.s. the same process, barack obama came out and beat her in that process. right? so there's a -- you know, how does bernie sanders do better in south carolina and georgia? tell me how he wins the sec

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welcome back. divided government. it isn't going to be the only thing gumming the works in capitol hill in 2018. getting things done is also going to get difficult very fast. a lot of members of congress are going to be angling for a promotion to the presidency. there will be at least 14 members of the house and senate as we talked about earlier who are thinking of running for 2020. 14 of them. and get ready for each of the democrats to try to stand out from the pack with bill sponsorships and grand standing of all kinds. remember what ted cruz was doing for the republican side? you get my point. as i mentioned earlier, outgoing senator mcmccaskill tweeted in the democratic cloak room as we vote tonight, just realized i was surrounded by no less than 5 presidential candidates and there were only 10 of us in there. this is going to get interesting. we are back with our panel.

michael steele, you had the most recent experience of both working in congress when you had members of congress. how bad is it with leadership >> it's awful. you are lucky if it stays to i am spartacus and speeches and grandstanding. the first act of ted cruz's 2016 presidential campaign was shutting down the government in 2013 and because he lacked the power to do that in the united states senate, he forced the u.s. house of representatives to do it which was not fun for those of us who were working with the speaker and the house republican leadership. >> senator schumer's job. let's just look at the senate, how to keep it -- he has already, you have some activists saying he needs to stop joe manchin from becoming the ranking member on energy, for instance. >> they are going to have to talk about it a lot. especially in the era of trump where they're going to be forced to react to whatever trump is doing on a daily basis from

reporters. the presidential campaign is going to seep into everything. not just the daily machinations of government, but what they say and what they have to respond to on a daily basis. one thing i am going to watch out for in the coming year is immigration. this is what trump ran on. this is going to be a campaign issue in 2020. and these progressive democrats, it's -- they are going to give the president nothing when it comes to this. >> let me put a video buffet of the congressional democrats, a montage of them talking about 2020. take a listen. >> that is a very important moral question that i've been thinking about. >> we're seriously thinking about it. we're seriously talking about it with family and friends. >> i do think it's important that there are people running from the midwest. i'm considering it. >> i'm up for reelection as a united states senator in 2020, so i will be running in 2020. >> i mean, you know, i don't know. i don't know.

i'm not ruling it out. >> after november 6th, i will take a hard look at running for president. >> so it's not an easy decision. we got to determine what kind of grass roots support exists and that's what we're looking at right now. >> i actually do see a path. i am considering it. >> i guess the question, and cornell you hinted at it earlier, do they all have a first name that's unelectable, senator or congressman? >> we're in a weird time. once upon a time i thought a member of congress, no way. now i think a member of -- from the house. it may be because if you're an outsider, i still am interested about if there's a candidate who can be anti-establishment outside of washington, i think it benefits them. who are the governors or who are even the mayors who are thinking about running? once upon a time, the idea of mitch landry running for president was crazy. it's not now. he has an outsider -- i think

the primary electorate is going to be for someone who can galvanize their energy and anger and anti-establishment. >> and the fact that all those people that you mentioned have voting records that are going to picked a part and are going to be fodder for op-o. any democratic fan not a fan of o'roarke will put forward with the president 30% of the time. it's a way of trying to take down another opponent and differentiate yourself if your number is 27 % and your opponent's number is 32%. this is a larger question. you look at the candidates and a lot of them are good on a lot of issues but they're not great on any of them as far as the progressive left is concerned. so what is the mood of the democratic primary electorate in that do they want to fall in love or do they want competency? obviously they want both, but if you can't get both. >> here's the contradiction i love. polling after polling is always

no, we want the candidate best positioned to beat the republican right. and the truth of the matter is always the candidate they fall in love with. it doesn't -- >> not necessarily the best. >> right. in 2008, hillary clinton was the best candidate to win in all the polls but they fell in love with barack obama. i give a nod to whatever candidate who can win the hearts, the hearts of these primary voters, not necessarily the minds. >> they have to go -- they can't do this logically. >> no, and a record is a political record. it's a hardship at this point in our policies. this is the reason when they were looking for recruits, they went with veterans, small business people, people with no record in elected office. nothing you could point to as well, that's 7/8 out of what i want, but that's not what i wanted. they need to be perfect. >> i understand why so many donors, that's what's happening. the race is frozen.

it's frozen until beto announces what he's going to do. donors are in love with him because it's a blank slate. >> he's proven to raise a lot of money and democrats can fall in love. he has this -- there's an energy about him. there's a coolness about him. you know, and that is what appealed to so many people across the country when he was running in texas. and i think that i honestly believe him that when he said during his texas campaign that he was not going to run for president, but since then he's walked back dramatically. i think that's because he's realized what he has -- >> when was the last time democrats fell in line and actually won the presidency? when they fall in line, hillary clinton or when they fall in love, barack obama, jimmy carter and bill clinton. >> beto, the same argument about stacey abrams.

these were not the candidates that conventional wisdom wanted or conventional washington whisperers wanted to be out there, because they thought we would stand no chance with beto and stacey abrams. stacey abrams and beto, they transformed the -- their states. they brought in new people to the process. that's what we need. we need people who bring more people into the process and excite the voters and not just sort of worry about how we win over republicans and moderates and conservative voters. >> and both abrams and o'roarke had this quality where voters maybe thought they agreed with them on 100% of the issues even if they didn't. it is obama-like. >> they see what they want. >> yeah. >> panel, stick with us. it might not be only democrats president trump has to worry about in 2020. he's going to get a primary challenger. which republican might take him on? (client's voice) remember that degree you got in taxation?

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oh mterelationship with milk? pour on the lactaid, 100% real milk, just without that annoying lactose. mmm, that's good. welcome back. 2019 will be all about the vast field of democrats looking to defeat president trump in 2020. it could also be about a handful of republicans who are thinking about at least challenging the sitting president. john kasich and jeff flake are among the republicans who have already visited early primary states. and they've hinted at a potential run in 2020. while ted cruz and lindsey

graham who lost to trump in the 2016 primaries say they'll endorse his reelection efforts, others are saying, you know. like ben sass. susan collins says he's open to seeing a challenge to the president in her own party. >> it's not my choice. it's the choice of those individuals, but i see nothing wrong with challengers. that is part of our democratic system. >> the panel is back. lee ann, michael, carrie, cornell, let me play another clip. here's bob corker when asked about whether the president, he's retiring. he's what he said about a primary to trump. >> do you think president trump should be primaried? >> i do think that we've got to remember what the republican party is. >> that's not a yes or no answer. >> oh, i don't know that -- i want to get away from hearing and thinking about it.

this is an every day in the hallway question. what is happening right now is not the standard republicanism that we've had in our country for many, many years. and it's very different. >> you know, michael steele, this is the argument i hear from some republicans that says look, we know it's impossible to defeat him, but somebody has to plant the flag. and what the republican party should be post trump. >> i think about this two ways. primaries are a way of keeping a president more true to the values of the party, and this president in a lot of ways has not been true to the values of the republican party. the second way is the chances of a republican primary candidate running strongly against trump, whether or not they defeat him depends on 2019. they depend on the economy, the results of the investigations. if we're looking at a situation where close family members and associates of the president are indicted, we're continuing to

lose special elections, the economy is not doing well, it becomes difficult to make a case for the president's reelection, and the case you might do better with a different republican at the top of the ticket might be more and more appealing. >> could tom cotton -- >> i'm not saying -- he wants to inherit the base. >> and he wants to run for president. does that happen? does he challenge the president? i don't know. that gets to your point. if trump is so weak, then maybe a trump-like figure comes in. >> can i jump in on this conversation? >> yeah. >> when you -- >> arguing it's for your own favor, i'm sure. >> when you look at some of the post election stuff and you look at republican voters who cast a vote this time around, they are much more pro trump than pro republican party. i think in a lot of ways this is

a party of trump in a way i did not see before bush. >> we've been studying this. we ask this question a lot to try to figure out. you are right the trump wing of the party is growing. here's what it was the last time we did it. do they support the president? 57%. are they more of a trump supporter than republican? 57% of republicans call themselves that. but that's 40 % of the party call themselves a republican before. >> here's my final point to that. then you take him on the same way that barack obama took on hillary, by expanding the electorate. the conventional democratic electorate, we lost to hillary clinton. we expand the electorate. what's a republican who can expand the republican electorate. >> if you're looking at a conservative idealism, jeff flake or ben sass or a john kasich independent kind of protest candidate, that's one thing. if 2019 goes badly is where you start seeing tom cottons or

other republicans who think they may have a future in the party taking this on. >> and institutions are increasingly not as important in american politics. like the rnc and the dnc. but state parties matter. and if state parties are not allowing primary challenges to go forward, we're seeing that already -- seeds of that in south carolina and other places. the state party could have some power in keeping one of those people off the ballot entirely. >> that's the point. he's not going to lose the nomination barring something we don't know. the question is does ben sass want to make a point? right? >> or the first step in ronald reagan winning the 1980 presidential nomination was losing the 1976 presidential nomination to gerald ford. >> here's the bizarre part. most sitting presidents, the last thing they want is a primary challenge. this president would probably say let's debate, john kasich. >> because trump is at his best when he's attacking. >> when he has a foil.

>> a one on one, i think -- you can correct me if i'm wrong. i think early on he did well because of the crowded field of republicans. i think one of one with kasich is tougher than you might think. >> he does extremely well at creating a handful of moments in a debate that get replayed over and over again. he never wins the debate. he wins the coverage of the debate. and i think he actually is pretty good about that even when it's a one on one like with secretary clinton. >> if you watch the transcripts, i take your point. he's better about finding a moment. >> i think it's tougher to define that moment with a guy like kasich. >> the other part is democrats, i had a presidential candidate, someone who wants to run for president say to me okay, how do i both go after trump and avoid getting sucked into trump? i said that's a great question. i'm thinking you need to answer that question, don't you? and this person says, yes.

>> and a republican primary pundit would have that problem times 100. >> this to me, the democrats, how do they avoid trump and run against trump? >> i think we had a moment three or four months ago where the narrative was that democrats want somebody who is going to fight. donald trump get down in the mud. it was a michael avenatti, it went where it went, but the narrative -- >> who? >> right, but the narrative has shifted dramatically the other way. people are saying what if somebody is like a beto o'roarke or klobuchar, they will rise above and reach out to the civility in all of us. we're going to change that cycle probably six times next year. >> that's a great general election strategy, but a primary, you have to throw the primary voters red meat. you do. >> trump is going to throw punches all the time. he'll want to be an unofficial referee of the democratic primary.

>> for the next year it's going to be nancy pelosi with chuck on the side. mostly pelosi. >> he didn't have a good first matchup. >> he didn't. it's going to make the next one nastier. he did not enjoy losing. match up with her. >> he did not enjoy losing. >> we can have a debate about nancy pelosi's long-term effectiveness. she might be qualified. think of her generation. she's dealt with men like him her whole life. >> professional life. we are talking a woman who grew up in baltimore, machine politics. she is tough in a way he hasn't dealt with. >> against a conventional president, maybe not. she might be a foil he regrets. >> and trump going against the powerful woman, that's not trump's best match up. >> it never is. >> nope. >> he defeated hillary clinton, but hillary clinton, he defeated the clinton part of hillary clinton, not necessarily the

hillary part. we are going to take a pause here. stick around. then we get to have fun. not that this wasn't fun. it's a new year. you have to make predictions. we are going to share ours, then we are going to get abused. next. i'm 53, but in my mind i'm still 35. that's why i take osteo bi-flex to keep me moving the way i was made to. it nourishes and strengthens my joints for the long-term. osteo bi-flex; find our coupon in sunday's paper. makeup now optional. new aveeno® maxglow™ infusion drops with kiwi to lock moisture. and soy to even skin tone. unleash dewy, glowing skin from within. new aveeno® maxglow™.

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we are at the end of the year, end of the year show. i grew up watching end of the year shows, i love watching the prediction even though they are meaningless but you love them. who is the one person who is on everybody's 2020 candidate list who will not run? three of you said, probably the obvious choice, joe biden. one of you wouldn't answer, cornell. i understand why everyone else picked biden. how does he survive a long primary? he may wait, jump in in november. why are you not convinced he is not going to run? >> because we have 30 people running. who knows who is going to jump in? i think it's too easy to say biden. if you ask a lot of people, they think cory booker is going to run, right? i don't think that's certain. >> you think it's less certain

than people think? >> less certain than people think. it is hard to run for president and she just came in the senate. it's a hard thing to do. >> i'm going to reverse the question. you get three tickets. if you could have three tickets, you know, say one of the three will be the nominee. if you could give three candidates to pick, who would it be? i'll give you three. go first. quickly. i'm trying to wrap up a show here. pick a trio. >> brian, kamla harris and brown. >> sherrod brown. >> i think o'rourke, harris an klobuchar. >> i'll say brown and i would love there to be a woman, but i'm skeptical. i'll say harry. >> my three tickets, i already said this on another show.

betto, warren and harris. let me go to other predictions here. i asked you, of three candidates, biden, sanders and warren, who will be an active candidate on december 31st, 2019 when we do the show again? >> elizabeth warren. there's skepticism about biden running in the way he talked about. his run always focused on family. warren has the money, might have the base to keep in. i'm not sure she will be the nominee. >> you said none. >> i can be quick. the front-runner status is a kiss of death. none of them surviving. >> they need the next generation. >> you thought sanders and warren? >> yeah. i think that they have done the work. i think they might not be front-runners, but still in. >> if sanders runs, he ain't getting out. >> yeah. >> my question mark there.

>> they are going to make it through iowa. >> the other thing that is going to happen is the surprise center attack. it always happens. more than one. lee ann, your one surprise retirement? >> i want to say mcconnell, but i went ben sasse. >> some democrat is going to raise a ton of money running against him. >> susan collins. she doesn't enjoy the end of chaos and the whole year. >> smart. >> i think susan collins. i can also see the republican from colorado, gardner. >> i said sass. there's frustration from tillis. i can see him saying i want none of this. >> very interesting. sasse, i agree. that was a lot of fun. thank you for having fun with me. that's all we have for this special edition of "mtp daily." watch it over and over.

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welcome to a special holiday edition of "morning joe." we are on tape. if you have no sense of humor, we are on tape. we hope everyone is having a nice holiday, on tape or live. with us, we have veteran columnist mike barnicle. white house reporter for the associated press, jonathan la mere. cute haircut. david ignatius. >> do not even ask how we did this. >> capitol