update of the developing headlines from the white house the u.s. is issuing sanctions against venezuela's state-run oil company. the secretary treasury says america will see a very small impact on prices at u.s. gas stations nbc's andrea mitchell reports venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves but produces very heavy royal, which is not widely used in the united states that's it for me, we will hand it over to "deadline: white house" with nicolle wallace right now. hi, everyone, it's 4:00 in new york two things are clearer today than ever before, an alarming number of people in donald trump's orbit came into contact with russians and russian agents, and a growing list of them lied about it to congressional committees and federal law enforcement. the question we're left with today, why is the picture of friday's early morning arrest roger stone comes into focus, the crush of evidence shows contact with russians was rampant and lying about those contacts the m.o

the only question that remains, what did the president know about the contacts and cover-up? for his part, the president once again landed firmly on the sides of the liars and felons, with tweets over the weekend alternately defending himself from prominent members of his own base over that cave of the wall and attacking federal law enforcement for arresting stone and investigating his associate's ties to russia over the weekend "the new york times" out with brand-new analysis, revealing more than 100 contacts between the trump campaign and russia. that stands in contrast to repeated denials about top campaign officials. >> i have had no contacts from russians or intermediaries for russians i have no russian clients, no russian communications. >> it's disgusting it's so phony. i can't think of bigger lies. >> are there any ties between mr. trump, you or your campaign and putin and his regime >> no, there are not that's absurd. there's no basis to it. >> i have nothing to do with

russia john, how many times do i have to say it? are you a smart man? i have nothing to do with russia i have nothing to do with russia. >> well, the lies, boys. turns out according to "the times" those top officials were some of the worst offenders. they report 18 undisclosed contact between roger stone and russians before inauguration day. the report 17 for donald trump jr. and six each for president trump and his former campaign chairman paul manafort "the washington post" put it's this way in a damning report of their own -- if trump's advisers lied over and over again, of on about contacts with russians, the question is why? it's that question mueller is likely to put to roger stone, now facing seven felony charges, who this weekend had a change of heart about helping special counsel robert mueller >> any chance you'll cooperate with special counsel robert mueller if he asks >> you know, that's a question i would have to -- i would have to determine after my attorneys

have some discussion if there's wrongdoing by other people in the campaign that i know about, which i know of none, if there is i would testify honestly i would honestly testify honestly about any other matter, including any conversations with the president. >> maureen dowd makes the connection in her column in "the new york times" writing, stone, who famously has nixon's face tattooed on his back about, is the agent provocateur who is the through line from the nixon impeachment article to the article about trump's impossible impeachment and that's where we start. joining us today, some of our favorite reporters and friends betsy woodruff, political reporter with the daily beast, paul butler, former president prosecutor and msnbc legal analyst, here at the table co-host and executive producer of showtime's "the circus" john heilemann and peter baker back in new york, we're so glad, and daniel day is back, washington

bureau chief and presidential lie tracker, one of our favorites. this why seems to be the conversation about ties to russia has landed after friday's indictment of roger stone. we know they lied. we know they were having mountains of communications with russians, which is just weird. you have covered a lot of presidential campaigns there's no reason for that why seems to be the living question. >> it is the question over all of this and gets to the question we still don't know the answer to, what is the core at this is there a case, genuinely large, broad scale case that robert mueller will lay on the table eventually, and the answer to why will be the ultimate determinant of whether there's a conspiracy or not. there's a theory many people, serious, sober people in legal circles who are critics of the president who put forward that, it is plausible all of these people are a, liars, b, saying what trump wants to hear, recognizing some potential

political damage, lied and thought they never would get caught were ignorant about the possibility of consequences down the line is that a plausible theory could it be true i suppose. but it doesn't strike me as all of that compelling given the number of contacts that are suggested. we made this list newspapers put together, they're super impressive and eye-popping how many contacts there were but that is not going to be the end. that will not be the total number there will be more it seems much more plausible the reason they were lying is because there was something to hide, and what that something is, is ultimately the -- >> million dollar question. >> rosetta stone of this entire story. >> paul, let me put up for you this graphic of all of the people who lied and show you who's been charged and who so far has not. here's roger stone, 18 contacts

with russians, donald trump jr., 17 contacts with russia, donald trump six, jared kushner six these are the only three on the list not charged with crimes people like yourself, former prosecutors, have described the mueller probe as working up a ladder if you're working up a ladder, it seems you have arrived at the doorstep of these three gentlemen, president's son, president's son-in-law and president himself. >> yeah, that's right, nicolle think of this as a pyramid prosecution. you start from the bottom and work your way up remember, the bottom here was way high the bottom was people like michael flynn, the president's national security adviser. so we have this now infamous paragraph 12 in the roger stone indictment that says a senior campaign adviser was directed by somebody, presumably higher, to get dirt from wikileaks. and so that's got to be either the president of the united

states, the president's son-in-law, jared kushner, or the president's son donald trump jr so i think this is not the last indictment we had an indictment in june of russian intelligence officers who were charged with conspireing to subvert our democracy to throw the election to donald trump. there has to be american co-conspirators. i think that's the next indictment. >> peter baker, your colleagues, quote, our friend chuck rosenberg in a piece over the weekend about where are we in investigating this conspiracy, chuck rosenberg says, for me it's chuck rosenberg cautioned against reviewing mr. stone's indictment as the final word on whether the trump campaign did or did not conspire with wikileaks. i wouldn't take the fact they didn't charge it or they can't or won't charge it let me show you what christie said about the amount of trouble he believes roger stone is in. >> the fact is that he's got a problem because they've got all of these e-mails and text

messages that he created that tell pretty clear story. i think if he decides to go to trial, he's in very, very grave danger everyone is presumed in the, george and so is he but the indictment i think is a pretty damning indictment. >> christie, super sober about all things mueller and has always maintained that this crowd was too incorrespondent, collude so that caught my attention. >> it does catch your attention. presenting himself as an ally of the president, having mr. trump's best interest at heart, when he says mr. stone is in grave danger, he's contradicting his own president. i think these questions are the right ones asked what's interesting is robert mueller is the only one who knows or maybe the people involved he's charged russians with conspireing to impact the election he charged americans of lying

what they did or did not do. what he has not said is the connection between the two is there enough evidence to say that or is he holding back we don't know. but there are no charges against trump associates with the fundamental issue that we're looking for. right now they've all gotten themselves tongue-tied over their inability to tell the truth apparently but we don't yet know what they're trying to cover up >> tongue tied and indicted. couple consequences here. >> and wearing orange jump suits. >> you track the lies -- you and i have had conversations about this sort of inane nature of little lies. these are big lies they're shockingly similar they're all telling the same lie. and there's nothing else that unites jeff sessions, robert stone, george popolopodus, paul manafort, and we're led to believe by congressman schiff's statements, donald trump jr. they all lie but big things, contact communications with an american adversary, russia

>> i think the what's next questions we're asking today are all extremely important. of course, we all want to know if there's anything at the root all of these lies have in common but the lies in and of themselves matter. lies were right up there in the articles of impeachment against richard nixon. lies are taken seriously by the legal system and fbi and i think by american sit zecitizens and rudy giuliani said oy vey, another false statement case. >> to go to jail. >> exactly but let's not say lies, who cares? these all matter >> the lies all fall in two distinct categories when they come to russia, the lies donald trump and possibly donald trump jr. and we don't knowjared tol over trump tower moscow and lies told about contacts went russian diplomats, labrov during the

campaign what do you think about the responses the president has given to robert mueller? >> i can't speak to any concerns within the president's legal team, the president himself in those written responses could have lied. i know the written responses were vetted very closely there were a number of lawyers involved and obviously going into it they all knew if he told a lie in the written responses, it would end his presidency. i could tell you they proceeded with extreme caution in that case that doesn't mean he didn't lie. it just means there were guardrails in place that weren't in place when he's making public statements another piece that's important to the conversation about truthfulness is part of the reason roger stone was charged is because he lied to the house intelligence committee my colleagues and i have been speaking to members of that committee over the last few weeks and what we have heard is there are still concerns that some of the testimony provided behind closed doors could have involved lies by people close to trump world that would potentially open them up to criminal indictment.

we reported members of the house intelligence committee, with the president's son donald trump jr. and with eric prince, billionaire, brother of education secretary betsy devos and founder of the notorious black water military contracting firm, to come back in and answer more questions i can also tell you members of that committee are concerned, they don't know for sure or if they do, they haven't told us. but they did share they're concerned there's a possibility those two men potentially may have lied in their testimony one of the challenges here, of course, the house jinintelligene committee has not been able to independently corroborate all of the statements they made when testifying they're hoping mueller will be able to compare toes transcripts with t those transcriptions with the information he has in the case of stone's testimony whether or not those were truthful. >> betsy brought us to where i wanted to go this john heilemann is congressman speaking about this

topic. >> your colleague, congresswoman jackie speier said she believed donald trump jr. lied to your committee on at least two occasions. do you agree >> i would like the special counsel to have access to don jr.'s testimony and determine whether it is evidence of false statements i think -- and i greatly appreciate the seriousness with which the special counsel takes lying to congress. so i will let bob mueller be the judge of that. >> here's reporting of some believe the lie may be question, did you have any involvement in this potential deal in moscow donald trump jr., like i said i was per riffably aware of it but most of my knowledge has been gained as relates to hearing about it over the last few weeks. i think a lot of people surmise cohen's testimony where he said he briefed the family 3 to 10 times contradicts that testimony. >> i think -- beyond don jr.,ly speak to him in a second, but i think there are a whole lot of

people in the trump orbit in the early part of the administration who went before the chairman, who thought they could get away with lying, there was a huge notion around a lot of those people who apparently didn't think the democrats could take back control of the house two years later, that this would be an ongoing thing they thought they could walk in because of who was in the white house. it's not just don jr., because liaring up because this committee is going back to potentially press charges. don jr. is the biggest fish in that group other than the president himself. there's a lot of feeling in the legal community and paul could speak to, it's almost inevitable, given the number of places he touches the investigation, whether it's on this trump tower moscow thing or meeting at trump tower, with the russians in 2016 in the early part of the summer, he touches some very crucial developments, very crucial episodes at which if there is this giant conspiracy, either where you can

see what the sources of it were, what the motivations were, what the actual contacts were related to poem election meddling, he's right in the middle of some of the -- when you're thinking about the movie or mini series of this, there are big scenes and don jr. is in a lot of those scenes. >> and the plotline, just to keep the movie thing going, and paul your name is invoked so i'm coming to you, with the intersection of the construction plot and those characters and collusion plot and those characters intersect where they told calamitous lies aboard air force one that brought in a whole bunch of press staffers. i had to hire a lawyer after they were crafted. where we understand donald trump jr.'s ability to lie, we lied on the piece of tape at the top of the show he lied, this is the most offensive thing and talks with his chin body language experts, the behavior of lying is something that he engages in and we just showed the tape. >> yes, so we know that the president of the use dictated a

lie on air force one about the purpose of the meeting with the russian lawyer and this isn't watergate-style lying about dirty tricks during a domestic political campaign. according to our intelligent officials, the russian interfeerns was an attack on the united states. so what this means is we have the president, his top campaign advisers and his national security apparatus lying about an act of war by a foreign adversary. so the question is, why would they do that it seems like it must be in the interests of the president, maybe it's in the interest of russia it clearly is not in the interest of the united states. >> all right after the break, sanctions relief for a putin pal and democrats turn up the volume on their concerns about a quid pro quo. also ahead, shutdown carnage, including the president's sagging poll numbers, soarous hit on the

economy and erosion among the president's base remember, the president got exactly nothing for his wall what could be next and off to the races, one of the most promising democrats dives in and finds the waters warm from her rousing announcement speech yesterday. this has trump advisers start ringing their hands about a primary challenge. your brain changes as you get older. but prevagen helps your brain with an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory.

prevagen. healthier brain. better life. hi, i'm just looking at my account, and i've got all this extra cash back. yep. that's your cashback match. only discover will automatically match all the cash back new cardmembers earn at the end of their first year. you matched everything i earned this year? yeah. whoo! more money! more money! it's all very exciting. i'm going to spread the news! spread it wide! it's cashback match people! people! you know that. you all work here. new cardmembers get a dollar-for-dollar match at the end of their first year. only from discover. my lineage was the vecchios and zuccolis. through ancestry, through dna i found out that i was only 16% italian. he was 34% eastern european.

so i went onto ancestry, soon learned that one of our ancestors we thought was italian was eastern european. this is my ancestor who i didn't know about. he looks a little bit like me, yes. ancestry has many paths to discovering your story. get started for free at ancestry.com this is it guys. you ready? to have epix? absolutely. woooo! you'd laugh. oh, ow. [ chuckles ] you'd cry. look, look, look, look, look, look, look,.

maybe even laugh while crying. what the fertilizer? sounds pretty great, right? riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight! just say, "add epix" and it can all be yours. it's easy to upgrade. and you don't want to miss out on everything epix. explanations for all of this, why all of the lies? why all of the repeated efforts to get russian help? of course, you have this symmetry of interest here where

donald trump wants help from the russians with his campaign, he wants help from the russians to build this lucrative moscow tower, and the russians want help from donald trump they want sanctions relief and all of this is going on at the same time. >> if that's what russia wanted when they meddled in the 2016 to help trump win, their investment may be paying off this time. "the new york times" reporting this weekend russia is celebrating another win on that front after the trump administration lifted sanctions against russian companies controlled by olga deripaska, with links to paul manafort. one might think being under investigation for suspicious connections with russia would want to avoid handing russia another gift, especially one that's received widespread, bipartisan rebuke. but that would make way too much sense. betsy, paul and the table are all back it is amazing, and your colleague ken vogel, had amazing reporting on this debate it wasn't a debate inside the administration but bipartisan support for breaking with the

white house on this. but the white house just brazenly doing russia's bidding. >> look, there's larger context here that's not just about trump and putin, and first of all, these sakss put on by deripaska's company were put on by the trump administration. if they were incurring favor with russia, you argue they wouldn't have put them on in the first place. but they put him on realizing the positive influence he would have. >> if i as a newspaper understood the impact on the global aluminum market the democrats and congresses in congress didn't buy it. >> they didn't buy it. partly because of, if nothing else, the appearance is terrible but the europeans did come and say 75,000 aluminum workers in europe are at risk as a result of this. the deal they came up with to try to solve this, of course, nobody buys. well, deripaska will reduce his ownership stake so he's not really in charge if anybody knows anything about russian business, i will tell you don't pay attention to the front lines because it's almost never the real story

that's the real problem here, there's almost no way to disconnect deripaska from deripaska's companies, that's what he's saying. >> paul butler, it strikes me though if you're looking at this policy debate and i think pete's point there was a legitimate global argument about the aluminum market, you're under investigation by your own law enforcement agencies in i a counterintelligence probe that began after you, ding, ding, ding, took a whole bunch of actions like this that strangely played favorites with russia. >> yes and so these sanctions against russia were for foreign policy interests allegedly but they also turned out to be helpful to donald trump's defense because what they demonstrated was that he is, after all, tough on russia. that toughness couldn't even last a year. these sanctions are imposed and within months, they're revoked

and so, again, if the concern is there's something about vladimir putin, there's something about russia that donald trump wants to protect those interests even more than the interests of the united states, again, the lifting of these sanctions is going to be more evidence that he's got more -- he's more in russia's corner than he is the united states' corner. >> i want to turn to mike flynn, who a lot of people view as sort of the original sinner, if you will betsy woodruff, let's watch christie on jared kushner's views on what firing mike flynn would do for donald trump in questions about russia >> talk about not understanding. you talk about a scene inside the dining room off the oval office having lunch with jared kushner with michael flynn, and they thought that would end the russian investigation? >> flip is the only guy who spoke to russia and they thought this would end it and i just

laughed, mr. president, i am unfortunately saying having been through this, we're going to be talking about this on valentine's day 2018 and they told me i was crazy. >> so jared kushner was advising the president with a goal donald trump revealed in an interview with lester holt of ending the russia investigation why didn't anyone around the president want to get to the bottom of russia's role in the 2016 election? >> it's particularly unsurprising that jared kushner himself would feel discomforted by the russia investigation, and if christie's characterization of that conversation is correct, then jared kushner deliberately lied to the president by saying only michael flynn spoke to the russians remember, kushner in the summer of 2016, had that infamous meeting along with paul manafort and the president's son with a russian lawyer who had close connections to the kremlin to talk about quote/unquote adoptions, which we all know is a code word for sanctions, had been really punishing on people

close to vladimir putin. if kushner did say to trump, only michael flynn spoke to the russians as christie claims that he said, kushner was telling a lie that was going to be revealed as public only within a matter of time it is not shocking that -- again, this is christie's claim. i don't think reporters have independently corroborated the claims he makes in this book, but christie is putting his name on it so it's significant and worn taking seriously. if the claim christie made here is correct, it's not surprising kushner would be interested in trying to find a way to quickly turn down the heat on the russia inquiry that was then under way. >> just to put a couple of dots together, i believe this is the same day he asked jim comey to see to it to drop the investigation into mike flynn, valentine's day was a big day in the trump white house. not for romance but for investigation meddling this seems though if you take -- i imagine robert mueller is interested in what jared kushner said to the president and christie and his wife about the

impact of firing flynn, if that would end the investigation, it's one of the flash points in the obstruction of justice investigation, but this seems to put jared's state of mind as interested and devoted to any russia investigation as the president was in firing comey and taking other actions. >> peter, you might know, how many times did jared kushner have to revise his security filing i think like 193 times open up jared kushner's state of mind, jared kushner's state of mind is where he lied repeatedly on the most important security forms, you know this from the white house, that you ever fill out. a lot of people make mistakes and have to correct them once because they made a mistake and jared kushner lied repeatedly over and over on them. going back to our very first conversation, why are you lying on the security forms over and over again when you know that you're going to get caught it's to the plausible to think -- maybe he doesn't know either you're pliepd to tblind e

possibility you will get found out which speaks to this discussion here about quinn, is he so in denial thinking somehow the whole thing will go away if we shut it down now, it will go away, never come back to haunt me, or is he not in denial or just wishful thinking so intense. one way or another, this is a guy who thought on this topic he could lie over and over again on security clearances and get away with it, that's the same kind of guy who thinks somehow if we cut this mole off of our arm that our stage four lymphatic cancer will go away by getting rid of the mole it's nuts. but another reason why like donald trump jr., you think about another person who i think is in grave peril for -- on both questions of perjury and lying to congress, lying to others also knee-deep in a lot of areas of cryption the special counsel's got to be caring about. >> and it's at the same moment he appears in the vacuum created by kelly and everybody else

who's not related to him jared kushner has all of this power. he ran a herd over the shutdown negotiations, which were a d'backal for the president story last friday from nbc news about his clearance process short circuited at best. and now the questions from christie about the firing the mike flynn. >> i think the question has been what evidence do we have that jared kushner is good at this or at least good enough to be given so many portfolios and so much responsibility there are a couple of cases which he has drawn praise other than from the usual suspects he was credited with accelerating the successful negotiations over the trade agreement with mexico and canada and prison reform bill but a wide variety of other things, the shutdown and russia related matters and whole variety of policy matters, he seems out of his depth and i don't think there's anything out of his past that tells us that perception is inadd rit.

>> what do you think about the security clearance process and russian investigation? >> to be honest as a canadian reporter here, i don't have the deep sourcing like someone like peter does -- >> don't assume. >> there's widespread skpas peration against jared kushner. >> they made the point this was the middle east peace negotiation. he thought he could work the shutdown and he obviously wasn't able to. it is worth mentioning as betsy correctly said, if christie's account is correct, a correct caveat, because it's worth mentioning jared kushner and christie do not get along. kushner but christie's father in prison and there's a lot of bad blood there. >> it's fresh in my memory i just finished reading

christie's book and he will be here tomorrow. but he savages jared kushner in this book and lays out all of that history i have to say, it's really been two tarantulas in a bowl those two have been going at each other since this campaign. >> it's not a coincidence, right? we talked about a couple of people here. the reality is donald trump jr. is as dumb as a rock jared kushner not dumb as a rock he's devious sometimes he overstates and overestimates his own savvy and ability to things but he's not an idiot one of the things in the book is we will discover this period of time in the transition is not just a fateful time but a lot of rotten stuff took place. there are a lot of different motivations why christie -- poem motivations why he got fired out of that job but given the kinds of things we have some evidence of and many suspicions of that jared kushner was trying to do in that period before donald trump became the president of the united states and given his

deviousness, it does not strike me at all implausible to think he wanted to not have a christie running the transition process and he wanted to be able to run roughshod and not just on the question of russia but uae and qataris and a whole bunch of other people with a whole lot of money around the world >> and you're right, it should be independently verified, but the yes men to jared kushner were asended when christie was pushed out and they've all been indicted, paul manafort, mike flynn. thank you so much for spending time with us we're always grateful to have you. when we come back, he said he would take the mantle the republican party now in disarray to make matters worse for donald trump, wait until you see his approval rating. these techs in a lab. this builder in a hardhat... ...the welders and electricians who do all of that. the diner staffed up 'cause they all needed lunch.

teachers... doctors... jobs grew a bunch. what started with one job spread all around. because each job in energy creates many more in this town. energy lives here. let's see, aleve is than tylenol extra strength. and last longer with fewer pills. so why am i still thinking about this? i'll take aleve. aleve. proven better on pain. i get to select my room from the floor plan... free wi-fi... ...and the price match guarantee. so with hilton there is no catch. yeah the only catch is i'm never leaving. no i'm serious, i live here now. book at hilton.com and get the hilton price match guarantee. you might or joints.hing for your heart... book at hilton.com but do you take something for your brain. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in clinical trials to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

>> during a speech in the rose garden ending the shutdown, trump said this -- >> 2,000 miles of concrete wall from sea to shining sea, we

never did. >> shiny sea also, remember when he said this -- >> we're gonna build the wall. it's gonna be a big, bad, beautiful wall. >> now that wall sounds awesome! tell me more about this new one. >> the walls we are building are not medieval walls they are smart walls. >> walls with brains got it now someone told me medieval solutions were actually effective. >> they say a wall is medieval but so is a wheel. a wheel is older than a wall >> but he's president, but just to clarify, just to clarify, we are still calling it a wall, right? >> barriers, fencing or walls or whatever you want to call it >> honestly, at this point i would just like to call it quits. >> you ready, guys we're doing this again it's the sequel no one asked for.

"countdown to the shutdown volume 2." same characters, same basic plot, but this time donald trump's numbers are lower and his hold on the republicans in congress far looser. what could go wrong? donald trump and congress have 18 days to come to an agreement over border funding. trump is already casting doubt on the chances for a deal telling "the wall street journal," quote, i personally think it's less than 50/50 this time around though trump may be going to go farther than he has before, an ace in the hole, declaring a national emergency at the southern border saying one official said this is clearing the deck for a federal action rather than retreat and a longtime confidante said trump has grown frustrated to the news coverage about the concession to democrats and encouragement by allies to fight. and that has come from brute

criticism from people like ann coulter, now calling donald trump a wimp. >> crazy that i expect a president to keep the promise he made every day for 18 months. >> you're finding out he's a lying conman what was your first clue >> okay, i'm very a very stupid girl fine. >> i didn't say it joining the table, msnbc political analyst rick sengle for public diplomacy and emily fox, senior reporter from "vanity fair." in this moment, it is half "seinfeld," half tragedy there are people serious harm was done to their housing, credit rating, security and donald trump got nothing. >> it's a silly proposition to begin with and now it's going to be a silly proposition for the second time. there are real-life consequences friday felt like a real tipping point when air trouble at some of the busiest airports at the country ground to a halt 800,000 federal workers missed

their second round of paychecks. yes, they're going to get the back pay this week but if they're facing this again, it's like stop jerking these people around that's the worst part of this, they went through for a month this struggle of will i or will i not get this paycheck for this second round now they are going to pace that same bait and switch the second time around? these are real life, and real-life consequences and people that have to pay for their children's education, for their doctors, for real-life things donald trump has never had to worry about paying for. it's enough already. this is not what the president should do. >> and i always thought that his treatment of the people with whom he did business never got enough attention i mean, people that worked on his hotel projects, the construction project, always got screwed. >> he never paid anybody he never treated anybody with respect. and so there shouldn't be shock that this is the way donald trump is treating people he's a person without any sort of empathy we've seen this time and time again.

it's just a question if congress is going to continue to put one this lack of empathy and how many people in america are going to continue to support this president, who is messing with so many people's livelihoods. >> and the poll numbers show it? >> the poll numbers show it. i think tipping point is the right way to look at it. the tipping point is republicans in congress. the question is if they want to do this again and they don't they made it clear there's no appetite for another shutdown. in fact, a number of folks would rather have the declaration of national emergency than get him in another position -- >> how sad is it, just make an emergency declaration. >> if that doesn't happen, the test is do they try to pass spending bills over his veto >> override the veto. >> mitch mcconnell say i will put something on the floor that the president doesn't support but does have 60 votes across the aisle and make him decide one way or another whether to keep the government open, that's a real test for them. >> let me put up the polls, rick washington post has 37%, bad even for a historically

unpopular president. >> the constitution doesn't say that much about what the president's job is he has to faithfully execute the laws but what he is in the perception of the public is the ceo of the american government. donald trump is failing as the ceo of the american government he had a business as a ceo he wouldn't close it down for four weeks where he's not transacting any business. >> great point this is sencentral to his brand >> yes, i think people see he's the chaos president. he's not able to run the government in any kind of seeming way and that's why they get that he's blamed higher for the government shutdown than his approval is. >> i agree with that i think this is more damaging to him, even than his recklessness around syria nobody thought he knew diddly-squat about foreign policy let me put up a graphic, which word would you put on the cover? >> as you know as a politico, the right track/wrong track

polling is something that is really key to whether someone gets re-elected or not when people are saying we're on the wrong track, the guy who's running the train is actually not going to be doing very well. so that's -- i think that's the same point about he's a ceo, not running his business. >> to any of our friends listening on sirius, this is a word cloud from the nbc news/"the wall street journal" poll wrong track is the word that comes up most in response to questions from polars, disaster, hard times, no compromise, disapointed and sad, john heilemann it is sad. >> for sure. i will say, just in the interest of meth logical skins here, his approval is now higher than it was in the abc/"the washington post" poll as we sit here seeing our ratings crater over the course of the shutdown, hi think we

would see must bes in the mid-30s and our poll doesn't co capture the last few days of the shutdown so we will see those numbers going forward. but he's still not cratered. you're above the crater base if you're above "the wall street journal" numbers it hasn't cratered he will be emboldened to play this out again which is why it's important to peter's point, the reporting about what happened and the combination -- and the airplanes which i think would be the thing that would end the shutdown, airport shutdown, is mcconnell went after the votes on thursday and said look, we're going to have 70 votes against you if you don't stop this tomorrow and that -- a lot of those votes would be republican votes. if we get the three weeks from now and we're up to the deadline again, not the question so much does he decide to put bills on the floor, spending bills on the floor to challenge trump, but does he go with the message to trump three weeks from now privately and deliver the same message? do we get to that point? is that where mcconnell comes

back three weeks from now, listen, we're exactly where we were before and my members are not going to go through a period where we're going to stick with you. we're back to where we were the day that we came -- >> we vote against you. >> the day we reopened the government there are 70 votes against you on pretty much everything here does mcconnell do that or does mcconnell go through some more of this kabuki around another shutdown i just don't know. normally i would say there's no question mitch mcconnell will not allow this to happen again but his behavior has been so terribly i think misconceived, strategically bad, tactically dumb, and so fearful of donald trump, consistently for two years now, he might just let the government shutdown again if trump pushes the issue >> the only one he should be afraid of is nancy pelosi. i understand we learn since we've been on the air she's invited him to give his state of the union the february 5th. >> and try to present his best case will he get tens of millions of

viewers. presumably he has a better chance than he did in the oval office address. >> because it stunk and it was full of lies we will see. the same guy is writing it, right? they didn't hire anyone real. >> he does better with an audience and make they took lessons from the last time and will do it in a different way. he will have republicans cheering. >> that you can count on, my lame old party clapping. >> we're assuming there won't be any agreement between democrats and republicans. that may be the right assumption it is possible to see how you can come up with some sort of middle ground where they do in fact agree to border wall money. they might call it border fencing or security in exchange for something permanent on daca. that is conceivable. if it's not, the problem for the president is the alternative is panned not just by democrats but republicans. >> here's why he could come up with something is john's point about he hasn't cratered by the way, he won't crater if he comes up with a compromise either can we talk about the idsy of

the policy border crossings are at a 40-year low. any republican who spends a dollar on a wall they won't work is a moron after the break, a president who's first thing was bickering about crowd size, this has a sting. (avo) life doesn't give you many second chances.

but a subaru can. you guys ok? you alright? wow. (avo) eyesight with pre-collision braking. standard on the subaru ascent. presenting the all-new three-row subaru ascent. love is now bigger than ever. with my bladder leakage, the products i've tried just didn't fit right. they were too loose. it's getting in the way of our camping trips. but with a range of sizes, depend® fit-flex is made for me. with a range of sizes for all body types, depend® fit-flex underwear is guaranteed to be your best fit. for all body types, if your moderate to severeor crohn's symptoms are holding you back, and your current treatment hasn't worked well enough it may be time for a change. ask your doctor about entyvio®, the only biologic developed and approved just for uc and crohn's. entyvio® works at the site of inflammation in the gi tract, and is clinically proven to help many patients achieve both symptom relief and remission. infusion and serious allergic reactions can happen

during or after treatment. entyvio® may increase risk of infection, which can be serious. pml, a rare, serious, potentially fatal brain infection caused by a virus may be possible. tell your doctor if you have an infection experience frequent infections or have flu-like symptoms, or sores. liver problems can occur with entyvio®. if your uc or crohn's treatment isn't working for you, ask your gastroenterologist about entyvio®. entyvio®. relief and remission within reach. i never thought i'd say this but i found bladder leak underwear that's actually pretty. always discreet boutique. hidden inside is a super absorbent core that quickly turns liquid to gel. so i feel protected and pretty. always discreet boutique. at&t provides edge-to-edge intelligence, covering virtually every part of your manufacturing business. & so this won't happen. because you've made sure this sensor and this machine are integrated. & she can talk to him, & yes... atta, boy.

some people assign genders to machines. and you can be sure you won't have any problems. except for the daily theft of your danish. not cool! at&t provides edge to edge intelligence. it can do so much for your business, the list goes on and on. that's the power of &. & this shipment will be delivered... when we have leaders who bully and attack a free press and undermine our democratic institutions, that's not our america. when we have foreign powers infecting the white house like malware. on the subject of transnational gain, let be perfectly clear, the president's medieval vanity project is not going to stop them when we have children in cages crying for their mothers and fathers, don't you dare call that border security that's a human rights abuse! >> california senator kamala

harris kicking off her 2020 presidential campaign with a ral why in her hometown of oakland, hitting donald trump hard right out of the gate. more than 20,000 people showed up to hear the senator speak, where she set herself up as the herself up as the candidate to speak truth in america the "new york times" reporting over the weekend that associates acknowledges "mr. trump plans without a peer for mounting

>> a gigantic crowd, but she had a strong reason for running for president. president trump's reason that he articulated over and over and over again, and i hate to go back to the wall, was he kept saying we're going to build a wall, we're going to build a wall, what will he say in 2020? the mess thaj that we heard yesterday that "this is not who we are" is more than we're going to build a wall. and will we have to shut the

government down twice for it? and is it just steel slats? >> yeah, i watched it closely. i have known her for a long time and always thought that she would be a top tier candidate. it is bianary. and nobody will remember what you said on the stump. her metric was that can i establish in a firm way that i'm a top tier candidate to be taken seriously. she raised a lot of money, went to her hometown and did a hard thing, staged a flawless event. it is her hometown, gives her an advantage. barack obama in 2008 was in springfield, not his hometown.

she cut her teeth there as a prosecutor. it is still hard to pull that off and in the end the pictures look great, the message was there, and in the end what she walks away from at the end of the week is no one has any doubt that this woman will be in a big strauling complicated field, but that she is in that group of eight candidates. she comes out of this announcement in that group and she wins pass or faith. >> they used to talk about the beer track and the wine track. beer track is working class volters so barack obama mobilized the wine track voters, right? college educated women, blacks, hispanics, people that make over $100,000 a year.

she is going for that coalition. i'm going to double down on the obama coalition and all of that. some are wondering should we go on the beer track? joe biden is a beer track. can he get wisconsin and michigan and the voters that hillary didn't get. she is going for that and she is also running for something else which is vice president. ♪ ♪ and everywhere i go ♪ there's always something to remind me. ♪ ♪ of another place and time. ♪

♪ and if you feel, like i feel baby then come on, ♪

♪ oh come on ♪ let's get it on applebee's. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood. you should be mad they gave this guy a promotion. you should be mad at forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. don't get mad. get e*trade's simplified technical analysis. let's see, aleve is than tylenol extra strength. and last longer with fewer pills. so why am i still thinking about this? i'll take aleve. aleve. proven better on pain.

breaking news in the paul mana fort case. a judge u judge has postponed seasonsing for paul manafort.

the delay is due to some issues still outstanding in the case. the paul manafort case is a mess, wrapped in a liar, wrapped in a person lying about trump and more. >> yeah, they can't get it past them. remember of course the mueller office also extended the grand jury by six months. we don't know where it will lead to, manufacture is still an active player hee here. >> and i am constantly warned against it. >> roger stone is always like hey, paul, let me get in on this, he was just a hangers on, right? but manufacture was, he had the connections by russia,

connections to trump, and he could be the through line for all of the case. >> yeah, and protected, i was reading in christie's book again, he defended manafort. >> yeah, and we forget that rick gates is still out there cooperating. this is almost the year mark of his coop raugs. >> my thanks to my guests. that does it for our hour, right now we're going to "mtp daily." >> if it is monday, is it going from bad to worse for president trump? >>. good evening, i'm katie