quite a monday. that's our show. don't go anywhere. "hardball" with chris matthews is up next. a russian winter. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews up in new york. breaking news on the russia front. matt whitaker told reporters he thinks the mueller investigation is close to being completed. it's the first public acknowledgment from the department of justice. take a listen. >> right now, the investigation is, i think, close to being completed. and i hope we can get the report from director mueller soon as possible. >> well, the news comes just days after federal officials arrested roger stone in florida and charged him with seven

criminal counts, including obstruction of an official proceeding, witness tampering, and five counts of making false statements. today, white house press secretary sarah sanders, who held her first press briefing in 41 days, was asked if the president was considering a pardon for stone. here's what she said. >> is the president ruled out a pardon for roger stone? >> i'm not aware of that. i haven't had any conversations regarding that matter. >> will you discuss it with him and let us know? >> i'm not going to get into that at this point, but if need be, we'll let you know. >> just to follow up, can you guarantee the president won't pardon roger stone? >> again, i'm not going to talk about hypotheticals that are ridiculous. >> today, mueller has accused six of trump's advisers or associates of lying multiple times to federal officials. raising the question of why they keep lying. the whitaker comment today comes moments before the house

intelligence committee announced michael cohen, president's personal lawyerer and fixer, would appear before the committee next week. last week, he canceled a public appearance, citing threats against his family. in what seemed like a telling move, he announced a shakeup of his defense team, adding a former federal prosecutor and a criminal defense lawyer. i'm joined tonight by natasha bertrand, staff writer for the atlantic, and danny cevallos, msnbc legal analyst. with your reporting, natasha, is this thing coming to abend or is it i think it's coming to an end? how did you read matt whitaker, the acting attorney general? >> the context in which matt whitaker said this didn't seem like he was making an announcement. it soundled like he was kind of speaking off the cuff, responding to a question that was asked by a reporter. and for all we know, he may have been alluded to press reports that have said that the investigation may wrap up as soon as february. that being said, i have spoken

to people who used to work at the fbi who say that in this context, in a press conference like this, they would have prepared for this question and they would have prepped whitaker for how to answer it. so i don't think we can write off his statement completely. but i do think it's very difficult to believe that the mueller investigation is going to wrap up by february or even by march given everything that happened last week with roger stone. the fbi agents carted out documents, computers, things that will require all of these agents to go through forensic analysis of his electronic devices and it doesn't seem like that's going to be able to be done by march. there's also the question of whether or not roger stone is going to reach some deal with the special counsel's team. if that's the case, those negotiations are going to be going on throughout february. so i really don't think that we're going to see any kind of final report, certainly, issued by next month. on top of that, we still have rick gates, who needs to be

sentenced, who is still cooperating. we still have the mystery grand jury subpoena that was brought before the supreme court and they're currently fighting that out. so there are just a lot of loose ends that still need to be tied up. matt whitaker apparently has been telling people behind the scenes for quite some time now, it's my understanding, that it's going to wrap up soon, but with no end date in mind. >> danny, all this has to do with russia and whether there was collusion. we know there's a russian conspiracy. what role did trump and his people play. how do you see it coming together? because this thing seems to be very strange. this arrest, how did you, rather dramatic arrest this past week of roger stone. a guy who clearly had some connection with wikileaks and therefore with russia. how do you tie that into the end of this investigation? is this kind of an arrest you would have near the end or in the course of it? >> this is an arrest that signals other than whitaker's statements today, that there's likely more to come in the mueller investigation. going back to whitaker, the

chief concern when whitaker was installed as the interim attorney general was that he might compromise the mueller investigation. and now, critics have proof of that, at least even in a tinea way, because whitaker today revealed information that is a first. no one has revealed any information about the mueller investigation from the mueller team. so whitaker's critics now have something to seize upon that he even answered a question about the progress of the investigation. what makes it even stranger is that it doesn't appear to be an accurate guess by whitaker. because the mueller team now has just arrested roger stone. with roger stone, they have a new treasure trove of evidence they may have seized or if roger stone cooperates, he might give them new tendrils of investigation in this gigantic white-collar investigation. so from everything we have seen, the redactions in the indictments, the sealed documents, those are all indicators that there is more

investigation to be done. so whitaker's statements today were both incongruous and potentially to the trump investigation. >> the dirty trickster spent this weekend blasting mueller's indictment of him, by the way, speaking to anyone who was willing to listen, stone made the television rounds to savage the special counsel investigation. today, stone indicated he would not cooperate with prosecutor mueller. >> are you willing to cut a deal with mueller to avoid going to trial? >> i don't answer hypothetical questions. i have no intention of doing so, however. >> natasha, this is the kind of tease we have been watching from this guy for decades. this is what roger stone does. he taps right up to the tip-toes right up to the edge of the cliff and dances on it for a while. he's been doing it all weekend. what's he up to, besides narcissism?

what do you make of it? >> i think he's trying to get more donations to his legal defense fund. his supporters don't want to see him cooperate with mueller, and he needs money in order to keep this fight going. he also knows the more he keeps this fight going, the more famous he'll be. i do think, it's interesting the president now has to kind of dance this very, very fragile dance with roger stone, because if roger is intimating he might be willing to cooperate with robert mueller and he might be willing to talk about, you know, the associates on the campaign that maybe he has information about, then the president really has to be careful about what he says about roger stone. so whereas he has trashed michael cohen in the past, for example, for cooperating with mueller or for other witnesses who are indicating they might become rats, quote/unquote, he can't really do that with roger because roger seems to be a very fickle person. if he gets any sense that the president might be turning on him, then i would not be surprised at all if roger would turn on the president. >> that mention by our press people, two of our kraunlts, asking sarah sanders whether it's going to be a pardon or

not, seems to be probably what roger wants to hear, right? natasha, he wants to hear the pardon is still in the air and still possible. >> yeah, of course. and roger is also saying he would not address a hypothetical, but he's also, of course, not ruled it out. i cannot imagine that roger would turn down a pardon, especially because he thinks he's been the target of a witch hunt throughout the last two years. it just doesn't seem like it would be in his character to say no to the president, who of course, he has been loyal to up until this point. and that he sees kind of as his ally in this fight. >> thank you so much, natasha and danny. i'm joined by california democratic congresswoman jackie speiers. how do you read this little, well, this huge tease from matt whitaker today that this thing is coming to an end? >> i don't know if it's coming to an end at all. i don't know that matt whitaker is the source of all knowledge on the mueller investigation. he certainly is being briefed, but i think that robert mueller

has more indictments up his sleeve, not that i have any information, certainly, but that would be my suspicion. >> go further with your suspicions because i'm curious about what are on this committee have to think. why does everybody lie? why did roger stone get accused of lying, why did roger flynn lie? i don't know if there's a conspiracy, a lot of people think so, but the fact they're lying about it is obvious. what possible motive is there except there's something really dirty there they don't want anyone to know about? >> that's precisely it. there's no question that trump was trying to do a deal with the moscow hotel. he wanted that to be kept under wraps. he didn't want to be in a position saying he was negotiating with russia and putin during the campaign, because it would have affected his chances of winning. i am absolutely astonished at how readily all of these individuals are willing to lie

to congress. and to think that they're going to get away with it. the e-mails that are in that indictment, i encourage all of your viewers to read, because there is no question that roger stone was there attempting to silence another witness, trying to prevent him from coming forward. and who was up to his eyeballs in lies and, i think, corrupting behavior as it related to the russia involvement in the trump campaign. >> what would you like to hear from michael cohen? he's got a couple new lawyers. he's lawyering up. he's going to show up before your committee, wouldn't do it oversight, now he's going to talk to your committee. what are you hearing about his news openness to speak? >> his new openness to speak is his effort to try and turn over a new leaf, and i'm sure it has something to do with his desire to want to reduce his sentence because he really values his family. i think what i would like to hear from him is more about the

ten years in which he served donald trump and what conduct would he assess was illegal that he was asked to do under the trump organization. there are three properties that were part of this whole effort that have a lot of russian money in them, both the toronto hotel, the soho hotel, and the panama hotel. there's corruption there in my view. there's russian money. there is an effort to, i think, launder money. and i would like to hear more about that from him. >> in his new memoir, former governor chris christie shares an interesting anecdote in which trump and kushner genuinely believe the russian thing, as they called it, would be over once they fired michael flynn. here's christie recounting that exchange on nbc. >> having lunch with the president, and jared kushner after he's fired michael flynn, they thought that would end the russia investigation? >> yeah, he said, listen, flynn's the only guy who spoke to the russians, apparently, so

i think this is going to end it. i just laughed. i said mr. trump, it's unfortunate i have teal you this, but having done this myself for a living, we're going to be talking about this on valentine's day, february '18. they laughed out loud. jared told me i was crazy. >> congresswoman, how could the president be stuck on fly paper, because he is. he can't get off of it, and he's the fly, from not knowing from day one he was involved. how can a guy believe he's so incent i innocent or that all he had to do was fire flynn and he would be free? >> because that's how he's dealt with business problems in his career. you either sue someone, get rid of someone, and that sort of takes care of it. he runs the presidency like he's part of an organized syndicate. and i think that he thought that would do it. you know, it's really palpable when the fbi director comey before our intel committee, one of the few open hearings we had,

when he said the investigation was being opened on the trump campaign and its involvement with russia. it wasn't just the russian intervention in our election. and i think everyone up to that point had thought that it was over, but certainly, it was not. >> we thought watergate was going to be over some time in the summer of '72. it certainly was naupt, and nixon thought it was over. thank you so much, u.s. congresswoman jackie speiers. >> for mow, i'm joined by june kim, a partner in the law firm of cleary gottlieb. thank you for joining us. let's talk about the law here. matt whitaker lets out accidentally or freudian slip, this thing is about to end. apparently, the experts we had on in the last 20 minutes think no. where are you? >> i was surprised to see that he would say that. normally, as he said in the press conference, you don't comment on ongoing investigations or the timing of when they would be completed. it's hard to imagine that it was a mistake, as you do prepare for

those press conferences, and you would have expected a question about the mueller investigation. i don't know what to make of it. it's hard to think that it is going to be completed very soon because there was just this arrest and search warrants related to roger stone. so at a minimum, you would want to at least go through those materials and figure out if there are any additional charges that might, you know, that could be made now with the additional evidence. so it's hard to know what to make of it. >> i think most people in this country, and that includes, they don't want to hear it, but curious, did trump play ball with the russians to get himself elected, to screw hillary clinton's chances, to win the election, and in so, basically hurt our whole electoral system. will we get that answer for sure from mueller? will the justice department under barr or whitaker get us that information so we can all see the facts? >> you know, just the way

criminal investigations work, you know, you're going to investigate what you can. you're going to bring charges if there's the evidence meets the standard beyond a reasonable doubt. and normally, that's it. your prosecutors speak through their charges and don't speak otherwise. here, with the special counsel, there is this regulation provides for a report that the special counsel provides confidentially to the attorney general and then the attorney general decides whether to make it public. so there is that additional possibility which doesn't normally exist in federal prosecutions of a report. you don't need to -- you may never get to the answer. >> cutting to the chase, if you can't indict a president, can the special counsel tell us what the president did? the bad he did, even if they can't indict him? will they tell us how awful this gets? >> my guess is he's going to include some of this information in the report. the information, he needs to

explain why he brought certain charges and why he didn't bring other charges. so to the extent the answer to those questions will get into the other evidence and other information that may not be an indictment or the subject of trials or charges, i would think that the report would include that. again, how much of that will be public and how much will be redacted or withheld, that's a question. >> we're not going to stop searching. thank you so much for coming with your expertise. >> up next, president trump had one of his worst weeks as president? don't you agree? allies knocked him for caving on the wall, and republicans said he had nothing to show for his shutdown fight. and that includes all the republicans. plus, there's a new challenger to trump, and she's drawing huge crowds. senator kamala harris of california kicked off her campaign this weekend surrounded by, look at that crowd, trump must be envious as hell. 20,000 real people. not some count his characters came up with. 20,000 actual -- look at them, you can see them in oakland for

kamala harris, and she's running against trump. meanwhile, a popular republican may be inching toward challenging trump in the primary. a very popular governor who looks like he's inching quickly to run against trump. back after this. [ doorbell rings ] janice, mom told me you bought a house. okay. [ buttons clicking ] [ camera shutter clicks ] so, now that you have a house, you can use homequote explorer. quiet. i'm blasting my quads. janice, look. i'm in a meeting. -janice, look. -[ chuckles ] -look, look. -i'm looking. it's easy. you just answer some simple questions online, and you get coverage options to choose from. you're ruining my workout. cycling is my passion. before discovering nexium 24hr to treat her frequent heartburn, marie could only imagine enjoying freshly squeezed orange juice. now no fruit is forbidden. nexium 24hr stops acid before it starts for all-day, all-night protection. can you imagine 24 hours without heartburn? man: i'm here with the cortezs, lawsons, carnevales,

at their family reunion to show them the family of chevy suvs. all: (cheering) this is the trax, the equinox, and the traverse. looks amazing. so, which one's your favorite? going for the trax, actually. it's more compact. man: the traverse? equinox is jumping out at me. that red is saying, like, "i'm a fun car." if i wanted to be a cool dad, the traverse. i like the blue one. the red one. and i would take that traverse. well, luckily you don't have to agree, because no matter what you want in an suv, chevy has the perfect one for you. man 2: i think you got it covered. woman: i love them all. (laughing) at panera, we treat soup differently. with vine ripened tomatoes, signature cheddar, simmered to perfection. with big flavors, not artificial ones. enjoy 100% clean soup today. panera. food as it should be.

welcome back to "hardball." as he begins this week, president trump is reeling. after last week ended with a remarkable cave on his demand for a border wall, today, nancy pelosi extended an invitation to the president for his state of the union speech, announcing the new date as february 5th. capitulation on the wall may have ended the five-week government shutdown, but it leaves the president weakened and bracing for more challenges ahead. a bipartisan group of lawmakers will begin meeting on wednesday to try to hash out an agreement on border security, including the wall, but the president has already thrown cold water on those negotiations. the president was asked about the deal in the next three

weeks. he said, quote, i personally think it's less than 50/50. the president also wouldn't rule out another shutdown, calling it certainly an option. when a pair of interviews yesterday, acting chief of staff mick mulvaney backed up the president's threat. >> is the president really prepared to shut down the government again in three weeks? >> yeah, i think he actually is. keep in mind, he's willing to do whatever it takes to secure the border. at the end of the day, the president's commitment is to defend the nation, and he'll do it either with or without congress. >> i'm joined by yamiche alcindor, steve israel of new york, and former chairman of the republican national committee, michael steele. is this president weaker this week than he was starting last week? >> i think if you ask the president's opponents and if you ask independents, i think they see the president as weaker because he really ended the shutdown on nancy pelosi's terms. however, the white house is sticking to this idea that the

president hasn't given up ground here, that he's only said that after 35 days of holding up the government, that he'll have this committee work on wall funding and that he will in some way get the money for his wall, but it's really very clear that the president is obviously frustrated with the situation that he's in. he's even lashing out fox news for the coverage they had on him ending the shutdown on nancy pelosi's terms. >> he's blaming everybody, like groucho marx. he's after ann coulter, saying she's being hostile. come on, this is hostile. this is the president of the united states. >> when you're going to war with ann coulter, you're not having a good time in politics. he thinks that this is a winning argument. that the wall is a winning argument. fundamentally, he believes it's a win. it's loss. hires the empirical evidence. we just had a midterm election. he tried to litigate the wall in those midterm districts. he lost republican members of congress.

he litigated the wall, made a referendum. they flipped to democrats. this is not a winning argument for donald trump. he just hasn't figured it out yet. >> michael, read this guy because i think he looks weaker. i compared him to sonny liston, once, the guy who couldn't be beaten until he couldn't win. went from can't lose to can't win. >> i think that's exactly right. he's in this space, he's buffeted by guys like mulvaney inhouse telling him, all right, let's do this, stick to it. they go out and continue to beat that drum. what i take away from this is, again, the idea that we're going to have another shutdown in three weeks, this president is prepared to take ownership of that. he's prepared to say yes, i own this shutdown too. because to steve's point, this fight over the wall is the one corner he cannot figure out how to get out of. short of an emergency. and so i think that either he's going to shut down the government or do the emergency piece, the next reaction in this debate. >> as i mentioned, the president

has taken heat from his base over the wall capitulation. hard right commentator ann coulter and fox business host lou dobbs both blasted the move. >> crazy that i expect a president to keep the promise he made every day for 18 months. >> right. >> no, it's the base. that's what happened. the base is what has rebelled here. they can take me as a stand-in for the base, but that's all i am, a member of the base. >> you have to call it as it is. this president said it was going to be conditional border security, building that wall, and he reversed himself. that's a victory for nancy pelosi. it will be perceived as such on every television monitor and screen in the country. >> and that's reality, every television screen in the country, lou. any, colter was following up on her tweet that trump was, quote, the biggest wimp ever to serve as president of the united states. in his interview with the "wall street journal," trump said of coulter, i hear she's become very hostile.

maybe i didn't return her phone call or something. this is so snippy. it reminds me of foust. he made his deal with the devil, and this is the devil. >> exactly right. this is the fundamental problem. this is guy, he sits in his recliner, he watches these people, listens to these people. he believes they reflect the sentiments of the electorate. if you look at an nbc poll that came out last weekend, the wall, unpopular with the american people. donald trump, underwater now, way more underwater than he ever was. so he takes a look at this little slice of extremism and believe it represents a broader psychology of the electorate. he's misreading the electorate. >> why doesn't he just take the $25 billion the democrats offer him now and then. and say we got our first down payment. we'll get the rest of it in the second term? i mean, sometimes you have to finesse these things. >> it was on the table, but now he's at a point where the opposition is not going to put it back on the table. they're not going to give him $5.7 billion.

>> how about nancy pelosi saying we'll have it next tuesday? she'll dictating terms. >> which goes to my central point about the relationship between these two individuals. donald trump has yet to figure out what to do with nancy. he husband a nancy problem, and he doesn't know how to deal with it. and she knows it, and every day, she turns the screw just a little bit tighter on him. and today's letter was a good example of that. >> and we would have had a different outcome to this shutdown had nancy pelosi not won the speakership. can you imagine what would have happened had she not prevailed? >> nancy pelosi knows how to deal with friends and enemies. ask kathleen rice of your state. even before negotiations begin on border security, some republicans are looking to the past shutdown to caution against another government shutdown. just like the because the base is with trump doesn't mean the leadership on the hill is with him. let's watch. >> what did this shutdown accomplish? >> well, hopefully, it teaches everyone that shutdowns are not good leverage in any negotiation.

i think it's important to separate tactics from the policy aims here. >> what was actually accomplished? >> well, i would say absolutely nothing. shutdowns are never good policy ever. they are never to be used as a means to achieve any kind of goal, no matter how important that goal may seem to be. >> yamiche, why does the president think he wins on the wall and senators who represent states, some of them red states, some of them not, think they lose on it? what's the difference in the job description that gives you a different perspective? >> i think -- i'm not even sure he really believes he wins on the wall and wins on the shutdown. i think what's even more confusing is when you talk to trump voters, and i have talked to so many of them, they forgive this president if almost anything. before he was elected, the "access hollywood" tape, while he's in office, his colleagues are being convicted and going to prison, and they stick with the president through porn stars, through all sorts of scandals and i think they would forgive

him if he said i tried really hard and i couldn't get the wall. you know the one thing they won't forgive him for doing? taking away their paychecks. good there's another shutdown in three weeks and more people are going another month without work, without getting paid, trump voters will turn on this president, and the polls that pbs news hour did show his base, his actual base, working class white men, men without college degrees, evangelical women, that they started shifting, and he was losing support with that critical base of his because of the shutdown and the fact there are people who couldn't get paid. that's a different thing than saying i tried really hard for this, but i can't actually get it. >> let's ask the question that yamiche just posed. will this president do it again? will he say i don't like the deal they cut between the house and senate. i'm shutting it all down again? will he do it? >> i believe he will do it again. he's like the guy on the titanic saying we hit the iceberg. let's try that again. that worked out well. he believes it's a win.

it's not a win. but he needs to deliver that to his base. >> as much as he believes it's a win, it is a win, i don't think he will do it again because of the things that yamiche just said and he will instead invoke an emergency action. >> agreed. >> is he going to go where the emergency? >> i think there's a lot of posturing. he's trying to set the stage to invoke an emergency on the border. but he's going to take it to the 12th hour. >> jared is warning against it. the emergency, i think he's going to go for it. i think he shoots for the moon because i have watched the guy, all this stuff starting in the '90s. this guy, every hand he gets, he shoots the moon. and that would be a national emergency. thank you, yamiche alcindor with your expertise, steve israel, and michael steele. up next, we're coming to the end of one of the strangest months in trump's presidency. tracking trump's first taste of a divided government after this break. lobsterfest is on at red lobster. with the most lobster dishes of the year,

what'll you choose? how 'bout lobster lover's dream? more like a lobster dream come true. a butter-poached maine tail, roasted rock tail and creamy lobster linguine. or try new lobster in paradise. it's a crispy coconutty, vacation on a plate. new ultimate lobsterfest surf & turf is here, too. 'cause what's better than steak and lobster? steak and lots of lobster. so hurry in and see how you're going to lobsterfest. saved an average of $412," syou probably won't believe me. but you can believe this, real esurance employee nancy abraham. look her up online. esurance, it's surprisingly painless. from the very beginning ... it was always our singular focus, a distinct determination. to do whatever it takes, use every possible resource, to fight cancer. and never lose sight of the patients we're fighting for. our cancer treatment specialists share the same vision. experts from all over the world, working closely

together to deliver truly personalized cancer care. specialists focused on treating cancer. using advanced technologies. and more precise treatments than before. working as hard as we can- doing all that we can- for everyone who walks through our doors. this is cancer treatment centers of america comprehensive cancer care network. and these are the specialists we're proud to call our own. treating cancer is more than our mission. it's our passion. expert medicine works here. learn more at cancercenter.com. cancer treatment centers of america. appointments available now.

welcome back to "hardball." president trump's capping off the start of this third year in the white house with battles on all fronts. for the man who claimed he would be doing so much winning, that has yet to be seen. the president caved on his border wall last week, ending the longest government shutdown in our country's history. a shutdown he started. and during the shutdown, more senate republicans voted with the democrats on their plan to reopen the government than their own or his own, rather. instead, delivering his state of

the union address tomorrow night, trump capitulated to house speaker nancy pelosi's demand to postpone it to the following week, and trump watched as roger stone got hauled away in handcuffs this week. stone is the sixth member of trump's inner circle who has been arrested by robert mueller. any one of those headlines would normally be enough to stymie any president. for trump, he has to face them all at the same time. i'm joined by historian jon meacham, author of "the soul of america." i think now that you're down in nashville again, jon, i want you to think about the willie nelson song, it's not supposed to be this way. and it seems to me everything is wrong. his buddies are getting arrested, put in handcuffs. the government has shut down. his number one fixer with all the dirty work under his fingernails is going to talk and squawk before two committees next week. this is awful. and whatever you think of trump, how does he deal with this life that he has chosen to screw up? go ahead, your thoughts. >> so willie nelson meads the

godfather, that was a classic cultural tour. he did choose this life. and we always ultimately pay for the -- you mentioned foust a minute ago. we do ultimately pay for what we do on the way up. willy stark taught us that in "all the king's men" that there's always something and ultimatesly, there's always a canceled check, always a footprint outside the window. and there's a lot of canceled checks and a lot of footprints in this case. the only analogy, and you know this as well as i do, if not better, is nixon in '74 when the economy was in pretty serious shape. and watergate's really closing in. nixon could only find a couple of audiences that would really be acceptable or welcoming by the time the spring of '74 came along. he came down to the grand ole opry not far from here in march of '74, tried to do the yo-yo with roy, and was here basically because he would get a warm reception, which was not the

case anywhere else. my sense of where the president is is he's paying the price for having invented this as he's gone along. and to say that he goes day to day, i think is an insult to people who go day to day. i think it's a minute to minute thing, and it seems to me there's no clear path to getting the presidency that is at about 35% or so approval rating, which is a danger zone, as you know, when you get in the 20s, you're really done. when you're in the mid 30s, it's lethargic, and i think i have a feeling it's going to begin to go down farther. >> here's a tough one. back when nixon went down, he went down not just the break-in or the cover-up of the break-in, which is keep kind of hard to plain to people today, that's all he did, but the economy was so terrible in the '70s at that time, stagflation, it was awful. it wasn't getting better. we were stuck in bad times. with bill clinton, i know with a lesser offense involved with monica lewinsky and that thing, it seemed to me better economic

times are working for the guy in trouble. that people don't feel miserable, therefore, they don't want to throw a guy out of office. what do you think the economy does if it stays strong, does to protect trump against removal from office? >> i think that's hugely important. i think that's his safety net. i have used this phrase, there are a lot hof people in the country, i know a lot of them, you do, too, who are basically 401(k) trump supporters. those numbers are going up. if you have done well in the system, you have done well under trump. the people who have not done as well are still stuck. tats going to be an interesting dynamic to watch, but i think if the economy gets softer, i don't think this is predictions are not worth much, but it's very hard to see him being able to move forward with a bad economy plus all this other stuff. the real question is, you know, there's about 30% of the country that is more or less permanently

disaffected and open to being persuaded by someone like this. what happened in 2016 and 2017 and a good part of '18 is that number was up near 48% or so. is that 12%, 13%, 14% of folks who believe in institutions and don't particularly believe in elites, who didn't want to see secretary clinton be president, and who were willing to say basically to washington, i think, if you're going to act like pro wrestlers, we're going to snd you one. are those people going to come back to a more centrist view, not idealogically, but in terms of institutional frame. as you know, presidential politics are not refereneda. they're choices. so everything, not everything, but almost everything depends on who the democrats put up as a choice. >> i'm so with you. there's a difference between free will and free choice. i once heard at a georgetown lecture. we don't get to think what the

press have. we get to look at the people we have and choose among them. that's how we get stuck with some of those characters. >> up next, the field of potential 2020 candidates keeps growing. kamala harris had 20,000 people out yesterday for the official launch of her campaign in oakland, california, and there's a loud and immediate response to a dark horse independent. you know what independents do. thing about jill stein, gary johnson, ralph nader. they cause trouble. we're back after this. (burke) parking splat. and we covered it. talk to farmers. we know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪

woman: this is your wake-up call. if you have moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis, month after month, the clock is ticking on irreversible joint damage. ongoing pain and stiffness are signs of joint erosion. humira can help stop the clock. prescribed for 15 years, humira targets and blocks a source of inflammation that contributes to joint pain and irreversible damage. vo: humira can lower your ability to fight infections. serious and sometimes fatal infections including tuberculosis, and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened, as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. woman: help stop the clock on further irreversible joint damage. talk to your rheumatologist. right here. right now. humira.

ed gets copays as lowlily go to as zero dollars on medicare part d prescriptions. ed gets labels clear as day.

and, lily.... lily gets anything she wants. ed knows he could just have us deliver his prescriptions. but what's the fun in that? switch to cvs pharmacy. these are not ordinary times. and this will not be an ordinary election. but this is our america. it's up to us. each and every one of us.

so let's remember, in this fight, we have the power of the people. so let's do this. >> that was kamala harris officially launching her presidential campaign yesterday in front of a crowd that her advisers estimate, look, make your own judgment, 20,000 people. that's according to "the new york times" reporting. it was a contrast in energy to former starbucks executive chairman howard schultz who announced last night he's seriously considering running for president as an independent in 2020. here he is. >> i am seriously thinking of running for president. i will run as a centrist independent outside of the two-party system. both parties are consistently not doing what's necessary on behalf of the american people and are engaged every single day in revenge politics.

>> as "the washington post" points out, quote, almost immediately, reactions began pouring in at a furious clip, noting some on the left fumed that a schultz run would split the anti-trump vote, essentially handing the incombt the election. it reenited a perennial debate, how much do third parties actually influence elections. it's a complicated question because there's no way to definitively know how a third party voter would have voted if they could only choose between a democrat and republican. however, in a key 2016 swing states of michigan, wivlg whisk, and pennsylvania, green party candidate jill stein won a larger number of votes than clinton lost to trump by. so if all those stein votes or even some of them had gone to clinton, she would have won the presidential election. and catch this. in the year 2000, al gore lost florida to george w. bush by 537 votes, by some counts, but green party candidate ralph nader got more than 90,000 votes in

florida, which would have swung the election to gore if at least just 538 of those third-party voters had voted for gore. what's shaping up to be a crowded field for 2020, but democrats may not be the only ones facing a contested primary season. there's buzz about a republican who may challenge trump. a republican in the primaries. we'll be back with that one after this break. the military y and it really shows. with all that usaa offers why go with anybody else? we know their rates are good, we know that they're always going to take care of us. it was an instant savings and i should have changed a long time ago. it was funny because when we would call another insurance company, hey would say "oh we can't beat usaa" we're the webber family. we're the tenney's we're the hayles, and we're usaa members for life. ♪ get your usaa auto insurance quote today. ♪ if your adventure keeps turning into unexpected bathroom trips you may have overactive bladder, or oab.

ohhhh... enough already! we need to see a doctor. ask your doctor about myrbetriq® (mirabegron). it treats oab symptoms of urgency, frequency, and leakage. it's the first and only oab treatment in its class. myrbetriq may increase blood pressure. tell your doctor right away if you have trouble emptying your bladder or have a weak urine stream. myrbetriq may cause serious allergic reactions like swelling of the face, lips, throat or tongue, or trouble breathing. if experienced, stop taking and tell your doctor right away. myrbetriq may interact with other medicines. tell your doctor if you have liver or kidney problems. common side effects include increased blood pressure, common cold or flu symptoms, sinus irritation, dry mouth, urinary tract infection, bladder inflammation, back or joint pain, constipation, dizziness, and headache. need some help managing your oab symptoms along the way? ask your doctor if myrbetriq is right for you, and visit myrbetriq.com to learn more.

and visit myrbetriq.com to learn more. if your moderate to severeor crohn's symptoms are holding you back, and your current treatment hasn't worked well enough it may be time for a change. ask your doctor about entyvio®, the only biologic developed and approved just for uc and crohn's. entyvio® works at the site of inflammation in the gi tract, and is clinically proven to help many patients achieve both symptom relief and remission. infusion and serious allergic reactions can happen during or after treatment. entyvio® may increase risk of infection, which can be serious. pml, a rare, serious, potentially fatal brain infection caused by a virus may be possible.

tell your doctor if you have an infection experience frequent infections or have flu-like symptoms, or sores. liver problems can occur with entyvio®. if your uc or crohn's treatment isn't working for you, ask your gastroenterologist about entyvio®. entyvio®. relief and remission within reach. welcome back to "hardball." it's shaping up to be a busy

primary season, and now it looks like donald trump could face a potential primary challenger from within the republican party. maryland's popular governor larry hogan has been consulting with aides and national critics of trump on whether to per sue a white house bid. i'm joined by zerlina maxwell, the director of progressive programming for sirius. and peggy noonan is a columnist with the "wall street journal." i love your column. i love it. i used to tweet you after i read it or e-mail you. what do you think about kamala. you have a good sense of horse flesh, how does it look? >> kamala harris? i thought she made a good impression in her speech. the headline to me, did you see that crowd? 20,000 was the number i read in the papers, as we used to say. what a huge crowd. it was a good, strong, liberal left speech. she also, i'll tell you what i see when i look at her. she enjoys this.

she likes it. >> if you don't like it, why are you there? >> also, they wear on us if they don't like it. it's good when they like it. >> yeah. >> you know, i'm not going to mention the name, but "snl" last night referred to one to one of the other candidates, kate mckinnon was playing her saying voting for her would be like having a prostate exam. it's good for you, but who wants to do it? enough said. what do you think about this, does happy matter? >> yes, it matters, especially when the contrast is donald trump and american carnage which is what he talked about on the inauguration, when you contrast that with the progressive vision and a clear message about how you're going to take the country into the progressive future, talking about health care being a fundamental human right, for all the talk about how the party is moving to the left, and i think that's true, i think the country is also moving to the left on many of these important issues. >> i agree. >> including health care. >> i agree. >> it's economically moving to the left. i suspect in terms of the social

issues it's moving less left. i think it will probably be moving more moderate, but economically, left. >> watch pennsylvania on that score. >> watch pennsylvania? >> on cultural issues. let me ask you, peggy, about the republican party and larry hogan. he got re-elected overwhelmingly in a state that's pretty blue. >> yeah. >> in maryland. very popular. >> popular guy. >> he had a scare a while ago which may have helped people sympathize with him. but he's been able to put it together politically and he doesn't like trump. where's his future? new hampshire? >> you hear very lately a lot of chatter about him. i have no idea what his plans are, what his heart is. i know there are people around him urging him to go forward. i am -- as long as trump stays viable, i think the republican party stays with him. i'm a little skeptical of those who would make a challenge from his right or from his left, we'll see. but at this point i mean when you just look at the numbers, republicans are still pretty solid behind him.

in terms of the country, he's got this solid third. it seems to me immovable. he never -- you know, he could -- he could get out there and do something, the strangest, weird thing in the world and keep his third. >> shoot somebody on fifth avenue, he was right about that. let me ask you about the republican party. you're progressive but they seem to be different but behave in a regimental manner. democrats don't stick together like that, they just don't, unless nancy pelosi is calling the shots. generally they do what they feel like doing. >> i would hope that democrats would stick together the way that they just did during the shutdown. i would also say that republicans tend to fall in line. they don't necessarily think about the specific policies of the republican running, but if there's an "r" next to that person's name, they vote for that person. that's true for presidential campaigns -- >> that's the description of my beloved dad. >> they don't care who it is. >> he voted for everybody. he was so consistent. in fact he had kennedy running as a catholic.

dad, aren't you voting for kennedy? he's a catholic. president trump tweeted howard schultz doesn't have the guts to run for president, he's not the smartest person. i only hope starbucks is still paying me their rent in trump tower. tonight schultz got heckled at a book event by a protester who said he would help elect trump if he runs. let's watch this. it's already starting. >> don't help elect trump. you egotistical billionaire. >> well, you heard the heart of it. don't help elect trump, you egotistical -- i don't know what's worse, egotistical or billionaire. >> maybe the insulter didn't know either. this is so interesting to me. howard schultz has a fabulous story in terms of business and what he made and it's a great product, et cetera. i don't know how to read this presidential possibility that

he's got -- look, i don't see his constituency. i don't see his -- what's the word for wow, everybody looks at him. >> charisma, the it factor? >> i guess i don't see the it factor. so everybody who's smarter than i am says it's money, he can spend anything. i think really? >> let's talk about the cost factor. we've seen this happen with nader, al gore wasn't president. we've seen it with jill stein and pennsylvania. these margins are obvious. >> right. and i would like to not repeat that. so in terms of howard schultz, run for mayor. run a city and do a good job at that and then maybe we can talk in a few years. right now there is way too much at stake for a vanity project like running for president. >> vanity. you egotistical billionaire. when we return, one of the midwest movies of the year tells a story that needs to be told and retold.

i'm a bunch of wind. and just like your stomach after that strip mall sushi, well, i'm a bit unpredictable. let's redecorate. whatsyamatter tanya, i thought you loved being spontaneous? i do. and if you've got the wrong home insurance coverage, i might break the bank too. so get allstate, and be better protected from mayhem, like me.

♪ and if you feel, like i feel baby then come on, ♪ ♪ oh come on ♪ let's get it on applebee's. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood. but prevagen helps your brain with an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. tailored recommendations, tax-efficient investing strategies, and a dedicated advisor

to help you grow and protect your wealth. fidelity wealth management. to help you grow and protect your wealth. if old sphow will theyense helps know i worked hard?, i've gotta make stuff harder. ♪ there, that's hard. ♪

welcome back to "hardball." one of the best movies of the year is also one of the most educational. i'm talking about "green book" about the manual sold to african-americans back in the days before the 1964 civil rights bill which band discrimination on the basis of race in places of public accommodation, hotels, restaurants, gas stations, rest rooms, you name it. it's impossible for any white person understand what it's like tell you after seeing you that

your reservation has been unfortunately lost. it was to avoid the punishment of such moments that the green book was published and became well known to so many americans in the 1950s and 1960s. without it you were truly on your own in an unfriendly land. recently in seeing the film based on the green book experience, i recalled something told to me by bobby kennedy's hard-nosed operative, paul corbin. one night he told me how he had been listening to bobby speak about civil rights and called him out on how detached he sounded. what would you feel like, he challenged bobby, if you were riding around in the south and your wife needed to use the restroom. what would you feel like if you were told that the gas station restroom was for whites only? how do you feel? that's why there was a green book. i like the movie based on this history because it tells a story that needs to be told and retold, especially the people not brought up under the burden of racial repression. white supremacy is what we americans must never forget for the simple reason it's where we came from. and because of at a certain level as william faulkner wrote, the past isn't dead.

it isn't even the past. how can we be good americans if we don't remember what we did wrong. that's "hardball" for now. tonight be sure to tune in at 10:00 p.m. senator elizabeth warren joins lawrence o'donnell. tonight on "all in" -- >> i've been fully briefed on the investigation. >> rare comments on the mueller probe from the attorney general. >> the investigation is, i think, close to being completed and i hope that we can get the report from director mueller as soon as possible. >> tonight, why matt whitaker is commenting on an active investigation. what it means for the special counsel with congresswoman maxine waters. then, michael cohen agrees to appear privately before congress, as roger stone heads to court. >> are you willing to cut a deal with mueller to avoid