>> they would be able to climb mount everest easier i think. >> put that through the trump converter. if it is difficult, it is not different, very difficult is maybe a little hard. mount everest pry means a little harder. "mtp daily" is starting with chuck todd right here. >> i will faction this to you, it will be mount everest is how high. >> i understand but mount everest is in or bit practically. >> and it doesn't have steel slats. >> that is over in the alps they have the steel slats.

>> where there is cigar smoke is there colluding fire? >> i will begin tonight with a smoke filled cigar bar. it is suddenly become an epicenter of the special council's investigation for trump-russia collusion. they're expected to reveal today if paul manafort was involved in a meter in te meeting. the washington post is revealing new details about this meeting about paul manafort, his deputy,

rick gates, probably the most important name to know here, and a russian army veteran with ties to his service named constantine. it came at a moment when the campaign is now under scrutiny. it is just days after he appeared days after the investigation tarted. they were apparently looking to leverage that with the pro russia creditors. matters of vital importance to the russian room vital to the meeting. look, it is a notable development.

that may be totally irrelevant to muller. it is called a experienconspira. and also because mueller is focusing on the possible exchange of information in the a apply named grand havana room. my guests are joining me now including chuck rosenberg and evelyn farcus. so tom, let me start with you on the reporting aspect of this. all of this, we learned we learned the importance of this at the meeting, manufacture continues to claim whatever he

misled mueller about was an accident. how does that he basically didn't realize he ryed. why do we think the judge has a real possibility of real manafort. >> a lot of the discussions between manafort and federal investigators working for robert muellers team occurred between the -- there is a transscrip of that. a judge can see it, but if you're meeting it, it is the fbi 302. it is a report on that particular meeting

investigations that are very much in the public eye, think of the hillary clinton e-mail investigation. we were able to see the 302, it is not a direct strans script, and they say it was a little bit of a tough time telling from the 302 what the intent was and what the dialogue was. there is a window here for some of the things that mueller has said. it is a fourth coming, that is a separate question. >> chuck rosenberg. i want you to help me with this. this is what got reporters realizing, this is weisman speaking.

that meeting referred. the special council, looking at redacted, four straight lines, comma, all are the focus of in the issue of the august second meeting. according to the washington post reporting, a peace plan with the ukraine, sanctions, was all discussed in this meeting. what do you take away from all of this? >> from the reporting, chuck, there is a bunch of questions about what would be passed, why was it passed, how did they get the stuff they passed, who knew about it. perhaps as we might imagine it, more over, you have three people at that meeting, one convicted,

manafort, one convicted in fully cooperating gates. it feels like he has surfaced this meeting. it is a very important window into that meeting for prosecutors. august 2nd is the meeting, and i want to emphasize this, here is donald trump on july 31s, two days earlier on a sunday show being asked about ukraine. take a listen. >> that whole part of the world is a mess all of the power of nato and all of this, he takes crimea -- >> you said he might recognize

that. >> the people of crimea they would rather be with russia than where they are. >> robert costa, you were covering this as close as anybody. who would it be at telling donald trump in the middle of july that giving him that kremlin talking point that most of those people speak russia, was that mike flynn? was it paul manafort, i know you were trying to figure that out. >> really cultivating the candidate, he was one of the only people from the foreign policy establishment that was going up to the 26th floor tower. you knew he was against the administration because of his hard break them. and you know that paul manafort was in the candidates ear.

he was running the ship. on foreign policy, he was so undeveloped as a candidate that people like flynn could go into the void. nobody was was saying, nobody in the foreign policy community was saying this at this point. >> i was woken from my vacation reverie. what he said was outrageous. he is basically spouting the russian line saying well, these people are russian speakers and they want to be part of russia, that is irrelevant. >> they're spanish speakers -- does that mean they believe to

march across the border. it was fourth and flynn. >> was there any mainstream american foreign policy person pushing this? >> they may have said there was a little bit of truth, russian to the extent that there was a lot of russians that were based there. and the families that were accompanying them. it was an invasion, it was a military seizure the first time this happened since world war two. all of the other western leaders and the united nations as a

whole say it will not stand. >> the number one foreign policy problem for russia was these sanctioning, rig sanctions, right? >> yeah, they wanted to control ukraine, and that led to sanctions. >> this brings me to what is collusion, what is direct, what is circumstantial. we're hearing richard bird, and he doesn't use the word direct evidence, he uses factual evidence of collusion, our wording said direct evidence, explain what that means, tom. >> direct evidence would be let's think of another crime and maybe a simpler crime to understand like a homicide. direct evidence is we have tom winter on videotape, a gun we recovered from the scene with his fingerprints on it. it is registers to tom winter

and we have eyewitnesss saying we were there and we saw him fire the gun that killed the other person. and the actual physical evidence, i would say, that could be the real direct evidence there. when you have real direct evidence or circumstantial evidence, those are saying so and so was at this place meeting with this person, and after that that person directly went to commit that homicide, or tom winter directly did something after that meeting. so what was discussed at that meeting? and is the other person at the meeting culpable or part of the experience. so it is incidents and events and fact patterns that occurred. that is part of circumstantial evidence. i think there has been a lot of back and forth here, chuck, about this issue with respect to trump collusion and coordination. it has not been said to me by anyone that i think has a good

handle on this investigation, that is there some sort of an agreement involving the president and the russian side to do something regarding this election. i have not heard that. what i think could come up is are there people in the trump campaign or bbit, that had clos ties to russia and how did that come into play and then there is the question was was the president or other people in the campaign aware. i think those are the fracturing lines of where we will see this investigation go. >> tom, look, you're setting up chuck rosenberg here. i have a graphic here i can't put in television, you can see it here, the lists of circumstantial evidence, the indirect evidence. let's take this august 2nd meeting, you manafort, gates, an exchange of information, but the

direct evidence is circumstantial. what are we staring at here? >> i tried lots of trials like this. there is different ways to prove a fact that is in contest. if i walk into your studio soaking wet, and i'm carrying an umbrella and there are no windows, there is circumstantial evidence that it is raining. there is inferences you can draw from that i am dripping on your carpet. right? the jury can conclude from those facts based on circumstantial evidence. by the way, in a conspiracy, all of the things on your list here, in a experienconspiracy you're g

to see direct evidence. it would be a written conspirator agreement. who is dumb enough to put a conspiracy down in writing, so normally you prove it through an circumstantial evidence. >> almost all investigations are circumstantial evidence. >> is president trump aware that it is not as exculpatory as it sounded? >> at this point the president is waiting for the mueller report, waiting to see how it plays out. the white house is trying to seize on the investigation, and the charmt's conclusions that he doesn't find a lot of evidence, but democrats are contesting that collusion. but it is a real fight but no one really knows where this will lead. >> i think they know the senate

intell intel is not the last person to speak. tom, robert, chuck, evelyn, thank you very much. always complicated, good to unpack it directly. the cigar bar that could have political implications for the president, that is next. tical ie president, that is next. uh uh - i'm the one who delivers the news around here. ♪ liberty mutual has just announced that they can customize your car insurance so that you only pay for what you need. this is phoebe buckley, on location. uh... thanks, phoebe. ♪ only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ we know that when you're spending time with the grandkids every minute counts. and you don't have time for a cracked windshield. that's why we show you exactly when we'll be there. saving you time, so you can keep saving the world.

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in a two-hour window so you're up and running in no time. show me decorating shows. this is staying connected with xfinity to make moving... simple. easy. awesome. stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and two-hour appointment windows. click, call or visit a store today. coming back is my panel, one of the things that we feel like we identified here is different important moments in understanding the russia investigation. 12 days in 2016 that have become fascinating. on july 22nd that is when

wikileaks begin to release e-mails. three days later trump dismisses the idea of leaking the dnc e-mails to help him. . that is the same day they targeted clinton servers. four days later they start to defend the annexation of crimea. it is certainly a lot of smoke, and i understand the question will be what is mueller seeing here. the senate intshs el committee may say this is a lot of suspicious stuff, but what can they put together? j what will mueller say? i think a lot of americans are hoping that mueller says something soon. anything. up to that point there is a lot

of trying to guess his knowledge, his intentions. what does this mean? we don't know but we know there are these contacts. we know so little, and we want to know so much that any little thing sets us off. >> i'm just saying what factually we found do date, we have not finished our investigation yet though. >> they are trying to say look, we have not found anything yet. doesn't mean we won't. but it was spooking them. that has everybody saying where is this going? >> we have polling this week that people want to see this

continue. they believe that mueller is going down the right track. it could make more sense and be less smokey but be con cleat. they will have something very soon, but the likelihood of all of these things coming, they are completely above reproach, but it is low when you talk to voters. when they say things like this has nothing to do with the president of the united states, that is really difficult to believe. >> he has never said the following "boy, i want to find out if the russians messed around in our election system, too." >> i noticed that myself, which is what you might expect for

somebody who was appalled. we know that and we know something else, two really important things, one is that there was a remarkable number of contacts between the president, the president's family, the president's business, the political advisors and russian interest in the course of this campaign. they always need a second or third try to get it right. what happened at the trump tower meeting. this is so magnificently novelist novelistic. what happened with the rewrite of the platform at the con vepgs. what happened with the development of trump tower moscow. we weren't told at the time there was details.

they are talking about the ability to disclose what is happening. the name are most capable of explaining why those things happened and what facts are in the middle there and we'll just have to wait to get the report to find out what that is. >> will you believe robert mueller or donald trump among republicans? among republicans, it is literally 17 would believe mueller, 74% believe trump. so he has his people believing his world view. >> you talk about the political implications of all of these things, i think it is like when the stock market is priced into

an event. that is why he sits at 43 on a good day. i have heard people say that. that is part of the report. i don't expect those numbers to change because people's attitude toward the investigation is about their attitude toward donald trump at this point. >> people have not, i think, i think this is those that really care about what the russians did have got to be the most us from stral stralts -- they don't just say they believed russia interfered, if they did they don't care because it got them trump. they're happy about that it is not surprising we have this population that doesn't not believe mueller over trump.

we're not talking about a large group of people. the per sen substantial of americans that self identify as republican -- >> you're right, he is more popular with a smaller group of people, but they control the rnc. >> they do. >> and they're definitely not going to flip and the numbers will be reversed, but you can imagine, and maybe this is terribly naive -- >> 30-60? >> that is a difference, and that is a different that may have more -- >> i think he has more to worry about house investigations now. >> i thought that too because they sound find more information. >> they are fundamentally

partisans. at the end of the day he is a law enforcement official and he wants to figure out what happened, right? the red lines, apparently applied to mueller, he has no way to control what the house does. that is the prop for the president. >> yes, more wide ranging, more capable of exposing it, but at the mercy of being stonewalled by trump and needing the justice department to issue any subpoena they need. >> mueller is the only one that is lethal to his time in office. that is probably the best way to divy those two up, i think -- >> i think right now, right? who knows what they could

reveal. they could lead to impreaeachme. >> no, but the world we're living in, speed wise it seems real esta realistic. hold the daoor, another 2020 democrat in iowa, maybe. oor, ano democrat in iowa, maybe. [friend] i've never seen that before. ♪ ♪ i have... ♪

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2020 vision, we're holding open a space for another potential 2020 contender. >> i'm going to sit down with my family very soon and decide whether or not this is something we will seek. >> in about three or four weeks? mid march? >> yeah, i would say closer to three than four. >> former attorney general eric holder laid out a special time line for a 2020 bid last night iowa. he says he talked about a run with his former boss. >> at president obama urged you? >> let's just say i won't talk about my conversations with my favorite person. >> have you had a conversation with him? >> yes. >> since leaving the obama white house,holder has been advocating for voter rights and against jerjeger

rymanderring. joe biden has the highest net favor ability, and elizabeth warren is a six. warren is the third highest favorable rating, but the third highest unfavorable rating among democrats sitting just in the 20s. we'll. back with more mtp daily after this. california phones offers free specialized phones... like cordless phones,

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and accessoriesphones for your mobile phone. like this device to increase volume on your cell phone. - ( phone ringing ) - get details on this state program call or visit well, we have not got p ten yet. we will get it, we're going to look for land mines. we will take a very serious look at it. >> i'm sure you're trying to figure out what could he be talking about that includ inclu

landmines. so it is not real land mines, i think he means political poison pills, the president was likely going to sign a spending deal in september. republican leaders are skiddish saying they're not willing to commit to the tale, but members of the freedom caucus have already spoken out against it. so casey, it seems like everyone is playing a little theater here, it is congressional republicans winking at the president like just tell us you'll sign it and we will get it done. >> that is a pretty good way of putting it, chuck. i don't think anyone here wants to be caught with their pants down on this the way they were

last time. the president really did not do them any favors and they were under the impression, think about what week before christmas was like. on monday we thought we had a deal, tuesday there is definitely not going to be a shut down, by the end of the week the president changed his mind, pulled the rug out and put substance abuse what ended up being the longest shut down in america history. this week feels like it is playing out differently but on the other hand he is just so unbelievably unpredictable. what you're seeing in this caution is a lack of trust. and an acknowledgment of his unpredictability. if just one person says the wrong thing, he can end up on a different trajectory. they're trying to preserve options, keep them open, but

everything that we're hearing from congress is not in the right direction. they are still scrambling to put the final touches together. we had several ses teamed members of the house pass away. now at that point they can move as quickly as they want. the senate can turn on a dime and do it if they have unanimous consent to do it, but we're just waiting on the president of the united states. >> i want to thank republicans for the work you have done with dealing with the radical left if will be a great achievement and contribution to our life and safety. i said that story is done. don't know if i even news to cover that tomorrow. that sounds like a guy that will

sign it, but it is trump. >> it is in his political interest to sign the deal. he says i'm not happy with it. he understands that a shut down would be a political catastrophe at this point, and he will probably pair it with checktive actions saying i'm going to go above and beyond to find more money for the wall. it is like a security blanket. >> he keeping tells us that the caravans are coming. he is building it and there are huge swaths that he says are built, so he is dealing with base lease fears, this deal if

he goes forward it is getting him less money than the previous one. >> what happens after this now. what is realistic for what he will do next? >> i think he would meet with theizing. i think what he will actual dloi is just pivot to attacking the candidates of 2020 nap will be effective for him. you can think of their weak point. trump is really good at knowing their weak points, chipping away at it, and they are not sure

they want to go ahead or go to the democrats. i think we have seen him do that already with some of the other deals. >> you painted a realistic picture, but all right, they will get signed, there is nothing to argue about budget wise until december. is it just over in congress to get anything done in a big way and that all congress will be about now is the ngss? >> well, on the debt ceiling question, the dynamics are a little different because the freedom caucus isn't holding that hostage. there was not the same fundamental opposition like house democrats had when they tried to control it. it could change, you could see problems in the senate, who

knows. i think we still need a better sense of that. maybe we will get a real structu infrastructure week. make our two -- >> i literally almost spit out my coffee, infrastructure week usually brings something else with it. maybe the mueller week? it is the one, possibly the only thing that nancy pelosi says she may try to work with nancy pelosi on. they want to run on something, right? and nancy pelosi was very shrewd about it. i think there is incentives on the part of the white house and nancy pelosi. the politics could screw it all up. i think that is what the president was saying with the state of the union.

i think it is probably more correct, you could see a campaign year in 2019 but usually we get one more governing year but i don't think we'll get this this time. >> i don't either and how will voters react to that they could go without doing anything else. it is just an interesting issue there. cas kacie, panel, thank you for being here. up next parting is such sweet chalky sorrow. h sweet chalky sorrow. forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding

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time now for "the lid." politicians are very good at getting out raged about bad behavior these days omar after tweets that had been denounced as anti-semitic. >> i think it was right for democratic leaders to condemn those remarks. the republican leadership was right to condemn stephen king's remarks and also to remove him from the committee. there were consequences to what he said. unless representative omar resigns from congress, at minimum, democrat leaders should remove her from the house foreign affairs committee. >> pence of course has not called out the president for many of his controversial comments and the president is just one of many politicians who have been embroiled in their own scandals but have yet to face any real consequences. the panel is back. eugene, you wrote about the

specifically comparison of omar and king but there's sort of a larger issue. it seems like we're really good at outrage and we're really bad at the consequences. my theory on this is simply because we basically -- the person who's been outraged against has two choices, fight or pariah. there's no third way anymore. and that's our problem, we haven't figured out a third way when somebody does something outrageous and gets called out upon it. >> yeah, i think we may even see that -- not pivoting too much -- but in the virginia governor. it's room for a second chance. i think the challenge you have is that they both are playing to their bases and parts of their party that want them to double down, continue saying what they have said and back them in part because of their views on this issue, so the insensitive to turn around, the incentive to walk these things back isn't as strong as it used to be. one of the things that

representative omar is going to have to be careful about, even though there's polling for more support for people of color on the left, not everybody on the left is part of that radical base. she may turn off more moderate d democrats and i think that's what you saw. >> eugene is right. both king and omar have incentives to actually fight. >> they have incentives to fight. one has a way longer track record than the other. i'm not defending anybody's actions but the long track record compared with a couple dumb and offensive things needs to be weighed. i think the thing that we really need to start figuring out is how to meet out justice. so you give people some choice between complete denial and fighting or pariah and fighting so that we haven't figured out how to deal, for example, with differences between al franken and harvey weinstein. we haven't figured out how to deal with differences between

various virginia politicians and who did worse things than others. we only have the death penalty in politics and we need to figure out a way both to sort of appropriately sanction people but not to kick them completely out of public life, unless they've done something that warrants them being out of public life and how people in our own business and elsewhere after we do bad things manage to get back in. after you've served a sentence you get to go back to society, maybe your voting rights are restored but we don't think about politicians in that way. >> it seems like we do need this in some form. >> omar has a track record. she had a track record in minneapolis. many jewish leaders were concerned about their statements then. >> that's a fair point. >> this has become a serial offense for her. she had a tweet about israel hip tie tiesing. >> the world.

it's also rashid talib and alexandria ocasio-cortez who praised someone who was friendly to hezbollah. talk about the political consequences of the democratic party being associated with political anti-semitism are huge and there's a battle that's just beginning within the democratic party. they have to fight this. the fact that it's being imported is very disturbing to members of the jewish community. >> there's no doubt, but you took us off track here a minute. >> how did i take you off? >> i'm asking about the larger question. >> we're talking about how to distribute justice which is a good point again with omar. >> but also this issue of anti-semitism sadly is surfacing on the fringe left and the fringe right. >> it's on the fringe right. it is now being imported through socialist politics which i think is an interesting development, through socialist politics into the democratic party. nancy pelosi had a horrible week, spent the whole week

cleaning up after omar. >> i'm saying this, what is -- i'm trying to talk about the larger, what are we supposed to do when you have a political -- whatever you want to call it -- span that goes from omar to king which eventually of cour-- >> we should vote them out. he should be voted out and the democrats need to take similar steps with omar. she's going to say this again. >> that is a question on her. is this strike two with her, meaning strike three and they take away the committees? >> there's certainly going to be increased pressure from moderate democrats and from republicans to do that because to matt's point, there's not going to be, i think, a walkback from her because she's saying the things that she believes are true. i think one of the things though that the republicans have to deal with is, this is not a value that we're also seeing among the fringe on the right. we're seeing this in the white house. we saw the president of the

united states call a nikneneo n very fine people. >> every time someone has something on their side that does something bad it becomes the what aboutism. you and i went into the what aboutism. what do we do about that? >> we call it out where we see it. right now we're seeing it in the democratic party. >> but it's a little hard to take the sanctimonious preening of vice president pence on this. >> that makes everybody uncomfortable. >> that his principle is as -- >> you can take it from me. thank you all. we'll be right back. thank you all. we'll be right back.

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that is all for tonight. we'll be back tomorrow. "the beat" with ari melber starts right now. >> thank you very much. we come on the air tonight with trump on the verge of caving on the spending deal with no real wall money. and a former trump executive will join me later to discuss his history of these kind of negotiating fail injuries. doj investigating the leak of michael cohen bank records. following the money, a democratic blueprint for trump investigations has come out. i begin with two former trump aides fighting mueller charges today in very different ways that could have big implications for the mueller probe. first you have guilty