katty kay, jonathan lemire and economic analyst steve rattner is with us. heidi pryzbyla and former chief of staff at the cia and department of defense, now an nbc national security analyst, jeremy bash is with us. joe, there's major news in the mueller probe this morning, but politically frame it out for us. trump is faring well politically. >> yeah, let's look at the latest gallup poll that has just come out. donald trump got really beaten up badly during the government shutdown, but the latest gallup polls show he's up to 44%, his disapproval down from 59% in mid january from 52%. it's a heck of a turn around. unfortunately this goes back to

what i've been telling audiences for a very long time and unfortunately you've had to hear me talk about time and time again how one party gets elected, they overreach and then it actually helps the party that has just been defeated. donald trump obviously did well because he had a lot of the country's eyes and ears during the state of the union address, even though it was a rambling as though "the wall street journal" said, this jig-jag sort of thing, but he had his closing argument, just like in el paso, he had a closing argument and the closing argue monment was mp of mistakes, unforced errors the democrats already made, you can talk about the botched forecast for the green deal, can you talk about what's going on in virginia, the blackface controversies there, the

late-term abortion celebrations, the new york legislature. you can talk about a lot of these different things that, give again, a reason to say don't look at the mistakes i've made, i'm here to protect you from the extreme democrats. i know of what i speak because bill clinton got elected in 1992 with 43% of the vote. people like me got elected in 1994. we immediately went too far right and what did we do? we re-elected bill clinton. and i've said time and time again bush won in 2004, they talked about a permanent republican majority, two years later, nancy pelosi elected speaker of the house. it was supposed to be an ascendent majority. people said you overreached. the tea party.

the tea party overreached, barack obama was reelected, two years later, donald trump was elected. democrats get elected, have only been there for two months and they've already given donald trump his closing argument for the 2020 campaign. now, listen, i'm not telling democrats to be what they are not, mika. i am just going to repeat what i said before yesterday and that is before you hold a press conference, before you put your talking points up on your office thing, before you say anything that you think is going to be controversial, ask yourself a question, wwnd -- what would nancy do? because she has already proven she knows how to defeat donald

trump. there are a lot of young democrats that haven't even been in congress for two months, and they are offering donald trump way too much fodder. yes, he's a hypocrite. yes, he's a racist. yes, he is all the things that we say he is every single day, but unlike us and '94 republicans, we had newt to go to and his ideas were crazier than ours. they have somebody who knows how to went and put to the the largest majority since watergate and somebody who knows how to beat donald trump. democrats can't afford any more unforced errors because all they are doing is making the once unthinkable now possible and that is the election of donald trump in 2020. they've got to play smarter. >> and with that analysis, we

now follow the news. there are two tracks here. a federal court ruling last night finds that paul manafort intentionally lied to the mueller investigation about contacts with an operative linked to russian intelligence, who manafort had an in-person meeting with while he was still serving as donald trump's campaign chairman in august of 2016. district judge amy berman jackson ruled that manafort meant to lie on at least three issues and that federal prosecutors are no longer bound by their deal to recommend a lighter sentence for the 69-year-old manafort. the judge's written order states that manafort made multiple false statements about his interactions and communications with constantine kilimnik, who the fbi has linked to russian intelligence. the judge also ruled that manafort lied to the fbi, the special counsel's office and the mueller grand jury regarding

payments made by an identified firm, firm a, to a law firm that, the matter was material to their investigation, along with false statements in october of last year that were material to another d.o.j. investigation. the judge said "prosecutors failed to show that manafort lied in two other instances. this new rule cog affect the severity of punishment for paul manafort. he is scheduled to be sentenced on march 13th." >> the level of stupidity is unbelievable, but this is a big, big step in the mueller probe, a big win for bob mueller. >> a big step in the probe. jeremy, i just have to ask you and i'm not being facetious here or not trying to be funny in the least, but how in the world can these people be so stupid? how can they be so dumb?

rick gates proffers, makes a deal, proffers, lies, gets caught. paul manafort makes a deal, proffers, lies. i mean, all of these people lie. they all lie to bob mueller and they all get caught. i feel like singing where have all the flowers gone? when will they ever learn? you're not going to be able to slip anything past this guy. what's it mean for the overall case? >> when you have an enormous secret, joe, you may engage in extreme stupidity to cover it up. that's what appears to be going on here. manafort had a chance to really reduce his sentence after he was convicted and pled guilty. there are only two tickets out of prison when you've pled getty, one is to work with cooperators and be truthful and the other path is a pardon.

in some respects manafort was digging in here, hopefully telegraphing to the commander in chief, the president, his buddy, the fact that he's holding firm and a pardon should be coming his way. the big question is why were they covering up this along between constantine kilimnik and the trumpcampaign. what is it that would make them engage not just in stupidity but reckless conduct? >> so why did they? >> i think they were covering up the ties to the russian federation. and they didn't want it exposed to bob mueller. there's no other explanation. >> and those ties, katty kay, why would the conclusion necessarily be a focus of donald trump? i think for donald trump it always comes down to money. could it be that this was all

about money and nothing about anything else that mueller is looking into? >> well, we know that he's had business dealings and was trying to get trump tower off the ground in 2016. there was one specific business negotiation with the russians that was going on. investigations are also looking into reports of whether he had money that was lent him by the russians at a time when he couldn't get money from other u.s. bangs ks in order to fund businesses. that's all under investigation. the key is why in august of 2016 did paul manafort and rk gatick santorum -- rick gates sit down with kilimnik? and that would start to fit the pieces of a quid pro quo. we don't know exactly what was discussed at that august meeting. you've just come out of the convention, the republican convention has softened the platform when it came to russia

over ukraine and then you have this meeting with a russian operative talking potentially about ukraine and lifting sanctions and some sort of peace deal. the pits of tbits of the puzzle fitting together. weep just don't have a we just don't have all the pieces yet. >> it's very interesting where donald trump and the republican party have added $2 trillion to the national debt. this news from "usa today" with all the forfeitiefeitureforfeitr probe may be turning a profit. >> every bit will help to get us back to some sort of fiscal sanity. i think what katty was talking about seems to be the most

logical respiration of what was going on here. and the inappropriateness of manafort in the middle of the came in 2016 off trying to do either his own business with the ukraine or somebody else's business, who knows, but it's obviously just another example of the tawdry behavior that went on in the trump campaign even before he was elected. >> manafort did owe a lot of money to individuals in ukraine and it's possible all of this was to get himself off the hook. >> by the way, happy valentine's day. >> thank you, joe. >> the red sox probably had the worst opening day of pitchers and catchers reporting that we've ever had. obviously -- >> it's the second day of the title defense. i've already panic stricken. >> you have to be a red sox fan near death to get a happy valentine's day, i guess. >> i'm very panicked.

but donald trump not as panicked this week, not only because of his poll numbers but also chairman burr came out and said he didn't see collusion. you have to weigh this with the manafort news. what is the current environment inside the white house regarding the investigation, manafort, mueller, collusion. i know the president has been upset obviously over the past several months and hard to control. what about now? >> first of all, the special counsel is an unlikely growth industry that we're seeing for the american economy. so i think that is very interesting and amusing. but the president, look, he is -- of course manafort remains a concern. and paul manafort's commitment is to be applauded. this is far from the first time he has been reprimanded by judges for misrepresenting himself and violating his plea deal. the president obviously took

burr's statement and he's tweeted about it repeatedly and bob mueller continues and there's been no conclusion reached there, though we all should note there may not be a final report we're all going to be able to pore over, that's certainly that we need to recognize, there may not be a conclusion to the investigation one way or the other that i think the public is expecting. in the white house, there is the sense that the birthing is good news. he really took a beating during the shutdown and as unhappy he is this week with this new deal and he's told people he's been upset at republican neg ootiato and feels like he has been able to get in there and done better, but there is a begrudging sense that he needs to sign it. he is the president, donald trump, who changes his mind all the time. so we certainly wouldn't bet our mortgages on that but the sense is the white house is

telegraphing that he will unhappily sign it but he will. he'll move using executive actions to appropriate more money to continue to finance the wall project and that he'll take that as some sort of win and try to change the subject. >> he has to sign it. he has no political option not to sign it. >> sign it, move some money toward his wall and say i won, even though he caved and he lost. >> he knows he got beat and his poll numbers took a real hit during the last shutdown and he acknowledges he candidate aff'f have that happen again. >> a last-minute motion from republicans to formally condemn anti-semitism and, quote, all attempts to delegitimize and

deny israel's right to exist. the motion passed 424-0. about the motion, qg magazine tweeted "i really wished this happened back in 2016 when the president's reporters were sending death threats to jewish reporter or trump told the jewish coalition i don't want your money or when he lied about tweeting a star of david plastered over money or when house minority leader kevin mccarthy tweeted an anti-semitic tweet implying prominent jews

were buying the midterm elections. andrea mitchell asked vice president mike pence about the hypocrisy while she was in warsaw with him yesterday. take a look. >> it's important that the leaders in the congress take a firm stand against anti-semitism rhetoric. and i think it requires consequences in this case. >> and what the president said about banning all muslims in 2015? >> look, the president instituted a travel ban for the security of the united states of america. >> yeah. >> the hypocrisy of the republicans is beyond breathtaking. we can do this in sequential order. in early december 2015 donald trump talked about a muslim ban, banning offer 1.5 billion people

from entering this country pause of the god they worship, pure bigotry, unconstitutional, a rank violation of the first amendment. then he talked about a muslim registry. republicans said nothing. then he claimed that he didn't know who david duke was or who the ku klux klan were or what they did on the sunday before super tuesday. republicans said nothing. then he attacked an indiana judge born in america because his parents were born in mexico and he actually said that that american judge couldn't be fair and do his job fairly because there was hispanic blood in him. republicans said nothing. then he starts putting star of davids over dollars and hillary clinton's image. republicans say nothing. kevin mccarthy suggesting that jews are buying the midterm elections by putting up pictures of george soros.

then during the caravans, republican congressmen saying that jews like george soros were funding the caravan in hopes of stirring up their base. the anti-semitism, i mean, i haven't even touched, mika, on charlottesville! there are so many examples of how this republican majority and the house of representatives and this republican president have used racism and bigotry and of course the original sin was donald trump's birtherism and yet they shamelessly attack one horrible anti-semitic tweet, which should be condemned but they are the last people to throw stones because they don't live in a glass house, they live in a glass tower that has the words trump etched in crystal all over it. >> fake gold. >> because the racism and the

bigotry, 24 karat fake gold. the racism and bigotry they've shown over the past few years and they've put up with, i guess best way if you want to just boil it down, mika, you just look at how you had paul ryan calling donald trump a racist and a couple days later paul ryan endorsing donald trump, which is why what i said off the top is so critical. america cannot afford for these democrats to blow their opportunity, to return sanity to washington, d.c. >> i totally agree. >> we're going to have claire mccaskill on at 7:00. >> she's warned about that democratic overreach. to put a period on what you're saying, if you're a leader and you don't stand up to it, then how are you not a part it haof ?

more on that tweet from kevin mccarthy. just before midterms he tweeted "we cannot allow soros, steyer and bloomberg to buy this election, the word "buy" in all caps. here's what the congressman said about that yesterday. >> you put out a tweet about 3 billionaires trying to buy the midterms. what did you bhmean by that? >> that was about democrats versus republicans. all i was pointing out was money that republicans and democrats were spending to defeat one another. >> mika, the billionaires, he picked out three jews. he said -- let's put the tweet back up again. i mean, the tweet is saying with a picture of george soros, an ominous looking picture of george soros, kevin mccarthy

said don't let three jews buy the election. could we have a house resolution condemning that? could we have a senate resolution condemning that tweet, that now the person running the republican party in the house of representatives put out a tweet don't let jews buy the midterm election. because that's what he said. >> and it's beyond hypocrisy on a whole new level driven by hate. heidi, the tweet that mccarthy deleted the next day so he must have finally realized something was wrong with it came as tom steyer, george soros and other prominent democrats were being targeted by pipe bombs. remember that? it was asked why it was deleted if the congressman believed there was nothing wrong and the paper was directed to a statement issued at the time referencing the sensitivity of the political climate, aka, they did think it was wrong and took it down.

heidi, you spend a lot of time on capitol hill, you talk to these republicans off camera, off record, how do they bring this together, the fact that they will be, you know, staunch live defen staunchly defensive about a tweet by a democratic congresswoman and yet stand by this president's racism. >> reporter: well, they don't, is the answer. the parallel is striking. it's not just anti-semitic trope but it's the exact same anti-semitic trope in terms of tying jews to money, in terms of the tweet that the president himself put out with the star of david and clinton sitting atop a pile of cash. if you talk to members of congress, democrats, they say the big difference here is that representative omar actually apologized and apologized immediately for this. but this should be a red light to some of these freshmen democrats, frankly, because this is the second time in almost as many weeks that we've seen one of them be piled on for

misstatements or controversial statements and that they now instead of nancy pelosi are going to be the bulls eye for the republicans who really want to use some of these cultural issues to stir up their base. and this will not be the last time unless some of these members realize that they are now serving in congress and they need to be careful of what they put out into social media and into the twitters sphere because that will be used against them and be used against their entire party. the base doesn't frankly care. i don't know how aware they are of the hypocrisy and the statements that have come from those on their side of the aisle, but it can be used to great effect against the democrats. >> and jeremy bash, let's talk about the bill this was actually attached to, which was to end all u.s. military assistance for saudi arabia's war in yemen. what are the implications of that?

>> this is a rebuke, mika, of the way saudi arabia and the uae have waged war against the houthi rebels. it will try to reign in what it sees as massive overreach of the trump policy. >> with just hours left before another government shutdown, what the president and his shadow counselors on tv are saying about it. plus, a headline that caught a lot of attention, "smaller tax refunds surprise those expecting more relief." you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back.

♪ where have all the flowers gone ♪ ♪ long time passing [indistinct conversation] ♪ [friend] i've never seen that before. ♪ ♪ i have... ♪

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taxes. can you clear it up for us? >> people are disupappointed wi what they're getting. we knew the tax bill was going to be small dollars for people, it was going to be regressive, favoring the rich. i wanted to con scentrate on wh we call salt, the saturday and local tax. these are organized by what percentage of residents used the local deductions in the past years. maryland, they were the most frequent users of it. you can see disproportionately the states in which the tax deduction was historically used were blue states. the states in which the

deductions were not used are historically red states. when the republicans took aim at this provision, nobody should be confused about elections having consequences. now we can see the consequences. let's take a look at house prices. can you see in these city, the nationwide in black but then phoenix, new york, los angeles, you can see there was a pretty steady increase both in house prices and in the rate of growth of house prices right up until where the bill was passed. and then after the bill was passed, you can see that new york and los angeles, house prices, the rate of growth of house prices immediately turned down, l.a. was particularly bad and then you can see old phoenix up here where house price increases actually accelerated. we've all heard anecdotal evidence about how tough the housing market is in the northeast, here's actually

evidence of the impact on people in terms of the value of their houses. and then the question is are people leaving? anecdotal evidence is pretty high. there's a 3.2 budget shortfall in new york. new jersey famously even before this law lost its single highest paying taxpayer left for florida. what are the states at risk? what are the states where the raelt wealthy use the tax deduction and pay the highest marginal rates and not surprisingly, they are all blue states in the northeast. the republicans won the election, they needed represent knew to pay for their corporate and individual tax cuts to wealthy people and they took a lot of it by removing this deduction, which hurt an awful lot of people in the northeast and company.

and, steve, also, we predicted when it happened that it hurt a lot of republicans running in california in the house races and hurt a lot of republicans running in new york state in the house races. you heard people in california talking about it. my gosh, that's where a lot of those seats were picked up at the end of the day. in all of those close races, it had to make a big difference. i'm just curious, what's your response to "the wall street journal" editorial yesterday that a lot of those blue states have extraordinarily high tax rates because they've been pursuing liberal policies for years and years and it's not the federal government's job to bail them out? what's the response to that? >> i understand the argument. they are high-tax states. governor cuomo said you can't just keep taxing wealthy people over and over again. there's something like 1% of the residents of new york pay something like 45% of the income

taxes. so you run that risk. but there's a couple other points to be made. first, you could argue that the state -- without the state and local tax deduction, it's kind of a form of double taxation. you're taxed once by the government, once by the state and you don't get any credit for having paid to the state. and the second argument is the most prosperous states, especially in the north, are disproportionate losers to how much money is allocated. so there's still a big transfer of federal income in effect from new york to places like mississippi or alabama and places look that. so there's a lot of puts and takes in our fiscal policy and in our tax code and i'm not sure that -- i'm not sure that this is particularly fair. and remember one other thing, this was done, one, to punish the blue says who hadn't voted for republicans and, two, to

find revenue to pay for those individual tax cults you referred to at the beginning, which go disproportionately to the rich. >> jonathan lemire, this is part of another underlying problem for democrats, and it has to do with, again, how geographically divided the country is. the democrats obviously very strong on the coast but for the most part weak once you go west of the hudson river all the way out to, you know, nevada. it seems, again, while everybody is focusing on donald trump, democrats have got to figure out how to start winning senate races again in the middle of america because until they do that, everybody judge that is appointed to the supreme court is going to be a conservative. again, we've got claire mccaskill on at 7:00 to talk about this. this is a party, don't you think that, desperately needs to figure out how to start winning in the middle of america again.

>> i think that's exactly right. we see how divided this country is geographically, how polarized it is and democrats do run a risk of becoming simply the party of the coastal states, where the big population centers are. there are a few exception in the midwest, chicago, making illinois a blue state. that's why for democrats there is some heat and interest in some of the more midwest candidates for president, amy klobuchar and she very specifically made her pitch over the weekend as she stood there in the snow saying i'm going to be the midwest candidate, this election in 2016 was lost in these states, it was lost in pennsylvania, it was lost in michigan, it was lost in wisconsin and she even made a joke saying how she would campaign in wisconsin, which of course hillary clinton famously did not in the stretch run of the campaign. i think there is some

recognition at least in certain quarters of the party that they win more local races in states like these, win senate races so they have the ability to help shape the judiciary, which right now of course mitch mcconnell and donald trump is arguably their most biggest accomplishment is bringing in conservative judge after conservative judge after conservative judge on to the court. >> we'll talk 2020. next up, axios is lock toking ae phenom who is not aoc. we'll tell how that is next. aoc. we'll tell how that is next. whee sugar in your family's diet, coke, dr pepper and pepsi hear you. we're working together to do just that. bringing you more great tasting beverages with less sugar or no sugar at all. smaller portion sizes, clear calorie labels and reminders to think balance.

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it's 41 past the hour. let's bring in the co-founder of axios, jim vandehei. axios is following the democrat taking social media by storm and this is a congresswoman other than congresswoman alexandria

ocasio-cortez. >> it is kamala harris. she is being searched more, she's doing better on twitter and better on the platforms. it's why people think she's doing better than anyone else, she's had a better roll-out and she's had a following she's starting to grow on social media. we're seeing her pick up more followers on those platforms than others. viewers will say who cares? why does he that matter? it matters profoundly. it the cheapest way of communicating with voters on scale. there's something about her message that's resonating more than the other candidates. think she has a big advantage. she's new, she's different. i think there's a penalty sometimes in politics than having done it before. i think that's going to be a

challenge for warren and sanders in particular. >> interesting. >> that leads to the next question, what exactly is she doing? is it something other candidates can emulate or is it something that has more to do with her own personal brand? >> i think it has to do with her personal brand. the thing about social media, you can't fake it. one of the things that candidates should and could learn from donald trump is authenticity is what works on social media. if you're no different when you're communicating on these platforms than you are when you're in private, that's when it's magic, that's when it works. when you're all stilted and someone is trying to craft your message and you're being all careful, you got what hillary clinton got, which was to seem inauthentic and social media was as good for you. money doesn't matter with social media because it's free.

beto o'rourke, he's quite good on social media, very authentic if you look at the way he icuse the different platforms. it's a great indicator and it loops into what joe was saying at the top of the show, democrats need to be aware of how much the green deal and socialism are playing early on. it's sort of catching fire with the base and all these candidates are endorsing it. and there's a consequence to it. i think that might be one of the reasons trump's numbers are starting to tick back up, it's the juxtaposition of him versus socialism and there's a lot of things in the green deal that will scare moderate voters and freak out some democratic voters. >> i feel like jim nailed something that i talk about a lot in know your value, and that

is your and you awe then 't-- authenticity factor. like gayle king is the same person. i've known her for 30 years and she is the same person everywhere she is. a lot of these candidates are women. i think it's a challenge that hillary clinton struggled with, being overprepared instead of confidently present. >> kamala harris brings some of her personal life into her twitter feeds, her husband has tweets all about her events, he's super supportive. you get a sense there's a whole life beyond just the policy prescriptions she's putting out there. i think that helps add to the authenticity and then opening the curtains a bit. brou beto o'rourke is a good example of the other case.

do we really want to see his dentist treatment? is that too much of a thing? >> i don't want to see it and i don't want to hear about his pondering thoughts. >> don't want to hear about the road trip trying to find myself. you have to use it carefully where you're not going too far the other way where it'sic icky. >> mika, don't overshare. sometimes you overshare. you and beto have that in common. >> i have never seen mika's teeth. >> but you've seen some -- >> yup. >> wait a minute. joe makes a good point. there you go. >> heidi, you know what's so funny, there used to be a saying around washington d.c. that it's hard to be president of the united states when there's 535 members of congress who think they're secretary of state. now you can say it's hard for nancy pelosi to run a political party when you've got like 230 people who think they're, like, you know, their own best press

secretary, the democratic party's best press secretary. there's the art of doing it the right way and the wrong way. looks like kamala harris is doing it the right way. >> actually, joe, there's also quite a deep well of social scientific data that shows even though it may be a double standard, the public expects female candidates to be even more open and accessible than males. it's called the virtue advantage. men have a competence advantage that people just assume when they come into the position this they're competent. women tend to have to prove themselves a little more on that. when it comes to the virtue advantage, people expect women to be more open and accessible. there's scientific data that proves that. i wanted to ask you a question about these numbers coming in on social media. it does seem that the missing puzzle piece that the democratic party is looking for here is someone who can also appeal to

middle america and, kamala harris, for all her advantages is in that social bracket of senators who are running. i wonder if you have any deeper data to tell us how she's resonating in middle america. it does seem the challenge for the democratic party is they could find a transformational figure who could unite the working class, which right now is divided frankly along racial lines. >> the data is not broken down geographical but the one this evening i might argue with is maybe in washington people are saying, hey, we need somebody who could win in middle america. at least what i'm seeing is the stories taking off, it's not necessarily designed for the debate. so much of the debate has been is it about medicare for all,

issues that go at the heart of democrats wanting to take a much more sort of aggressive stance against trump. they're sick of being clinton or clinton-like in their policy. and it early. the question is do you have a biden or someone else come in who tries to play that role of the centrist. everything we're hearing from the bloombergs and bidens and others, i think they're scared about the trends that are seeing early on and it might keep some of these candidates out, might keep mcauliffe out. >> thank you. and stul ahead, the senate is expected to vote on the nomination of torng nattorney g william barr today. and they expect him to be held

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later today the senate will hold its confirmation vote for president trump's attorney general nominee william barr. joining us now, tim baker and ron lieberman, who were federal prosecutors in the u.s. attorney's office in maryland during the 1970s investigation of vice president spiroing agne. they write "when newspapers began to report that he was under criminal investigation in the summer of 1973, agnew aroused his base by screaming "witch hunt" and launching a vicious assault on the lying press and the partisan justice department and the biased and liberal democrat prosecutors in baltimore. if agnew and nixon had succeeded

in derailing our investigation, the most corrupt man ever to sit a heartbeat away might have become the president, but our investigation was protected by the man who had become the new u.s. attorney general that sprin spring, elliotl. richardson." tell us what that has to do with richard barr. >> richard was the gold standard of what we should demand from our attorney general. most importantly as the senate considers barr's nominations richardson promised the senate he would flully disclose the final report that the special prosecutor produced. william barr has refused to make that commitment to the senate.

that's a very serious failure to live up to the very high standard that elliott richardson created when he performed in that office. >> so since you blelieve, tim, e doesn't meet the richardson standard, what could be the consequences if barr does he become the next attorney general? >> well, his confirmation seems to be a done deal, but the senate could make it very clear to him that it expects and if necessary will require that robert mueller's final report be fully disclosed to the congress and even more importantly to the american people so that we know exactly what mueller found out. >> jonathan lemire. >> we know the president has said he views the attorney general as his own defender, his own personal lawyer rather than the top law enforcement officer for the nation. what have you seen from william barr?

do you feel that bar shares that view? or are you assured what he'll do with the impending mueller report? >> the attorney general is not the personal attorney for the president, he is the attorney general of the united states and represents the people of the united states. i think it's too early to see and to tell how mr. barr will be. he has a reputation, a good reputation. he may not, as we write in our piece, be elliott richardson yet, if at all, but he has a decent representation. having said that, he is not the president's lawyer and when it comes to mr. mueller's investigation, it is critically important, in my view, that the attorney general keep his hands off of that.

>> steve rattner. >> but the horse has already left the barn. three democrats joined the republicans to confirm him. how or is there any way we could actually get the ideas you've espoused into action, to become part of how the attorney general operates going forward or is it too late? >> well, i don't think it's too late. it seems quite clear that mr. barr will become the next attorney general of the united states. however, the congress has a lot of power. and as we write in our piece, one of the porpg things that they need to do is to make it very clear that mueller's report, when it comes out, will be made public. this is what happened to us in the agnew case. when we were negotiating for a

plea deal with vice president, one of the things that his lawyers insist sd on was that the facts of the case not be made public. and the attorney general of the united states, elliott richardson, backed us up when we said that was nonnegotiable. we wrote a 40-page of what happened, the entire case, all of facts and it was imprinted in many of the newspapers of the united states. congress should make it clear that they will see to it that this report will be made public in full. >> all right, tim baker and ron li liebman, thank you both for being on the show this morning. >> the president says there was no collusion, but the question remains why have so many of his aides been caught lying about their contacts with russians?

his former campaign manager paul manafort being the latest. plus we'll set the stage for today's vote to prevent a government shutdown and the ways in which the president could still get money for his border wall. and claire mccaskill will be joining us. "morning joe" is back if a moment. joe" is back if a moment okay. okay? discover has no annual fee on any of our cards. so it wasn't my tough guy act? no. we just don't have any annual fees. that's a relief. i've been working on that for a long time. if we had talked a month ago, that would have been a whole different call. i can imagine. excuse me, sir. can i please have no annual fee? no annual fee on any card. only from discover.

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him in congress. apparently both money were less concerned at that time than king's history of racist congress than they are today with tweets from a democratic congresswoman. welcome back to "morning joe." it's thursday, february 14th. we have katty kay, jonathan lemire, steve ratner and joining the conversation, senior writer at politico and an msnbc political contributor jake sherman and kimberly atkins is with us and former u.s. senator, an msnbc news political analyst, claire mccaskill back on the show. good to have you, claire. >> joe, it's an interesting time to be ra.

>> well, i mean -- yeah. it's time for members in the media to look at just how hypocritical republicans are. tha they're embracing steve king when he has a long history of making race yally insensitive remarks. so offended by an anty semitic tweet, which was a very deeply offensive tweet and say nothing about donald trump's anti-semitic jokes during the campaign wit campaign, where he names three jews and basically says we can't let this jew money win the le election. i never heard within republican condemn him for the anti-semitic

remark. in 2015, the muslim ban. the muslim registry. i said it last hour saying he didn't know who david duke was before super tuesday, saying that he didn't nope about the klan, he wasn't going to criticize the klan because he didn't even really know what they did. you could go on and on about him attacking an indiana judge saying he couldn't be fair because he had mexican blood in him and it goes on and on and on. if republicans want to get on board and start condemning her, you know what, they need to look in the mirror and need to start holding their own members to account. claire, though, let's make some people angry this morning. >> oh. i'm gla

i'm game. >> that's why we have you on. if you look at the crazy el paso speech, he a pretty strong argument that basically he's trotting out some themes of 2020 but it's what we republicans did when we got elected in ' 94. we thought we were going to be bill clinton who only had 43% of the vote a couple years before and we jeoverreached, one mista after another, one pd p stupid press conference after another, and i was in the forefront of that extremism and all we did was reflect for someone who just ran as a democrat heartland, america tell me how concerned

you are that these democrats that are running around talking about socialism and making so many unforced errors, how concerned were you that they're turning off heartland democrats and actually help. >> well, i have to believe that the candidate who inspires but who also reassures the country that we are going to get back to a more normal place in the world, that we were going to have dignity in the oval office, that there's going to be character, have i to believe they also are going to have sell the american people that they're not going to push extreme ideas but rather push hard for important change that is possible. that we can actually get done. and i really think there's a number of candidates in the field that have that potential. we just have to see how they perform under pressure and it's way too early to know who --

frank bruni had a congratula congratulate -- if a freshman law make why don't you read it? why don't you come out with your own idea in maybe because the new green deal isn't nip solid proposals at this point. candidly, i keep asking as far as i can tell, there's no there there at this point. maybe that's why they're doing it. i do think that they're going to have to figure out a way to

distinguishes themselves from the rest of the people reason he got elected president because hooves the republican nominee. we're going to see some of that on the democratic side. he distinguished himself in that crowd. he was def any thely crowd. he was def any thely who is going to seem more thoughtful, step back from the group and try to carve a different path? >> of course everybody focuses on the presidency and i've be been -- if democrats doesn't want to see a nine-prn

conservative spror. they're going to have to start winning senate seats in the heart lan again bass you what do democrats need to do so start winning senate seats in the heartland given? >> first of all, think we've got to be careful about our identity politics. think sherrod brown gets this part, theand we want the latina support and african-american support but we really want everyone's support, no matter

where at the live, no matter where they work. and we've got to be sure that we've got our central entree is an economic message about opportunity and about the fact that we can do better than what this guy is doing. i mean, look at our deficit, look at the tax cut, the disaster it's been. we've got so much to work with. i feel confident that one of these candidates is going to figure this out. >> we can hope. is it gree new or new green? everyone's mixing it up. the bill to avert. and later tonight as funding expir expires announced around 12 p.m. that the report was final oozed, the 22.5 billion is going to security under the description

they did not use concrete or trump prototypes. hundreds of millions more with fund hiring, 600 new customs officers, 75 additional immigration judge teams and over half a billion dollars will go to assistance to central american countries. while the deal has major domestic provisions, including a 1.9% pay increase for federal workers, it does not include an, tense of t -- extension of the violence again women's act. joe, that's a lot but it looks like there's a lot in there that

people can work with that's constructive. >> there is a lot in there. also, jonathan, it's plain that donald trump has no battle. this ends with him signing the bill, looking at his poll numbers and saying i picked up 6, 7 point, so why not let it go through. >> that is the sense we're getting from the white house. let remember what happened in december. looked like he was going to sign that as well and helessened to the voice of the of the those two names are still opposed, sean hi hill as well, that he should take a wing, saying obviously some sort of executive action, repurpose government funds. there's a recognition from the

president and people around him that he cannot afford to go through another shutdown, cannot afford another costly defeat. it was a def fate stating gol you'll expect to hear in the last day or so before this becomes law he will try to paint it as a democratic mistake and he'll still rally forward. there's a recognition he's resigned, not heart about it, but he'll sign it. >> jake sherman, is that what your reporting shows you, that this is going to be signed whether donald trump likes it or not? >> at this point, yes. and with the caveat that the president is very fickle in his thinking andmer curial based on a few other things that we know.

number one, this bill is not appreciably different than anything he would have got i don't know before the 35-day shut down, which perfect the econom economy. in march, he said i will never do this again. no within had time to read it. this is huge. i will never do dpn nat is going to vote on this this afternoon and the house. he's going to do the same this evening he probably.

>> if he had just struck a deal with you and democrats a year, year and a half ago, whatever that was, i guess it was a year ago, he could have gotten $20 billion for the wall. >> 25 billion. there was a deal on the table, $25 billion in exchange for allowing young people who came tho-to-this country because their parents brought them to come out of the shadows and have some kind of a legal status. 1. million young people. that was on the table. he rejected it. then later last year what he asked for was $1.6 billion. that was on the table. then in december the 1.375 was on the table. he shut down the government and guess what he's getting? at that-da, 1.375.

nows that so kimberly, atkins, how it is. info inform. >> without question the president will try to take a victory lap, lake he does he in no money towards his wall has been allotted so that is not true. he's going to say he's going to get the money elsewhere. democrats are certainly going to fight him on that as well and there might be an executive action which certainly would spur lawsuit and other challenges, too. this is a fight that will be ongoing.

but the president will continue to what he could have gone, i think this sets a the blo and she's not going to budge on issues when she said there's not going to. she said in an express point that 9 money is for border security and cannot be spent on a wall. every fight moving forward will show donald trump all the thing he couldn't manage to get done with a fully republican congress. steve. >> what's remarkable from where i was sitting was the extent to which the reins on the hill turned on drft and essentially

pounced it included they and vote on it and basically box the president out to the point of which he were to voty, then i thit the and -- he's already doing that yesterday in a pool spray in the cabinet room. he said we have $23 billion for bored are security, pi he says we have more ways to understand

nachbl i understand process pretty well and there are ways he could get $2 billion $3 billion more that and further flame roo loop. in you cannot talk montana. he is a winner in this deal. frankly, the democrat are going to think they won. their base is going to say you won and the prds's base is going to sick can him, nancy pelosi came, the facts, the reality that any in couldn't have gotten at any point oaf the last year and as senator mccaskill got actually fares will.

>> when republicans ond the house and the senate, drpt was offered 25 billion dollar and he swatted it away. >> he kwated it did 4 and now each says he wants more grass legal immigration, now he hayes he wants tons of it. clrs we're seeing the emergence of i think a large m -- you have

donald trump being boxed out of these negotiations. you have the sense of a the last government sun sfchl he was going to keep the government on. that will be even fachl you're going to have rab and kate luke pfgt you saw the same thing, overwhelm vote pros and this is rahal -- is this begin of you know, when donald trump was elected, we all talked about the guardrails that surround the american presidency. the fact is he would have these guardrails and therefore there were limits to how much ak he

could take. in the f two years of he is pri is, thos and with the mid it were lks,s and democrats doing well thavgs another chip away in his could have had that dot so the president giving you -- then as we head into 2020, yes, inpublicly he's back up there again, he goes out to el pass organization energized given. thos people as ever who is the threw. and that's what republicans

continue to be nervous about. i guess the challenge for democrats and claire mccaskill can answer this, how do you run against that? do you run as trump or trump like or do you have find a totally different way to do it? >> well, i don't think america wants someone else to follow donald trump that doesn't have a presence, a dignified presence on the world stage. ia. >> i mean, look what's going on right now. i mean, we've got major world leaders that are not showing up to a meeting that the united states has called. this is unprecedented over in warsaw. so i think you're going to have a candidate who is going to be willing to stand up to trump but is to the going -- we have to

reassure america that the press is somebody they can be proud of. >> and not to mistake the -- >> i keep for geing that we've got to make sure we're tack become presidential candidates that could be either a woman or a man. >> there you go. >> absolutely right. i think while we are watching the democrats hash things out in terms of policies, things like the green new deal, i think it's kwaully important in what vote are looking for is somebody who ultimately can beat donald trump on the democratic side. i think that's going to be a key role. you're seeing people already showing people who can jab with the president.

we don't want to see a fight that dissolves into nasty back fighting but democrats are looking for someone who can stand up and trade barbs with the president and discuss policy at the same time. it's a tough job but that's ultimately what democrats are looking for. >> kimberly atkins and shake shae -- jake sherman, thank you very much. - jake sherman, thank you very much experience awards... #1 in video streaming according to nielsen... ...and #1 in network quality according to j.d. power. we're proud to be the only network to win in all four major awards not because of what it says about us, but what it means for every one of our customers. choose america's most reliable network, and get apple music, on us, when you do.

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one mayor's challenge and a model for america's future." joe? >> you said micah but, what, people nail brzezinski? that's even tougher. we'll hit all the hot button issues and let democratic voters know where you stand. let's start with your ideology first for people who don't know where you stand. would you say you're more liberal, less liberal than aoc, nancy pelosi? >> i consider myself a pretty strong progressive but i don't consider the left center spectrum the best way to look at our politics right now. >> do you consider yourself more of a centrist? >> again, i don't care much for

labels but i actually don't believe the best way to reach independents today is through ideological centrism. voters, especially voters in the heartland where i come from don't necessarily make their decisions by lining everybody up on an ideological spectrum and looking for the dot that's closest to where they are. push come to shove, i'm going to come at most of these policy questions from a progressive ain angle. >> donald trump's been pushing, as have republicans, the line that democrats want to turn

america into a socialist country. do you have think moving towards so ism -- socialism is a positi step for the democratic party? >> i think it's a word in american politics that has basically lost all meaning. that began when a conservative proposal, the affordable care act, developed in the heritage foundation, began to be described as socialist by conservatives who are opposing it. i know for years socialism has been used as a kill switch to stop an idea from being talked about. if you're from my generation, is an idea good or not? we don't care whether it reads to some conservatives as more socialists or not, we care about whether it it works. >> so does he capitalism work? >> yeah, american capitalism is

the most productive economic force known to man but we know it can create massive inequality and it can destroy itself if you don't have the wise constraints that make people free. there's a generation of people who grew up at a time when up had communism and socialism. do you care about capitalism more than democracy or democracy more about capitalism? >> do you support late-term abortion legislation that was passed in the new york state legislature as well as in virginia? >> i don't think we need more restrictions right now. what i've learned in indiana,

being at a place where a lot of my friends, a lot of my supporters even come from a different place than i do, being pro-choice, i believe when a woman is in that situation and when we're talking about some of those situations covered by that law extremely difficult, painful, often medically serious situations where life or health of the mother is at stake, the involvement of a male government official like me is not helpful. >> should states have a right to ban abortion at 20 weeks? >> that sounds like constitutional question. i'm not a legal scholar. i know these questions ought to be resolved by women in consultation with their doctors, not by the intervention of male politicians putting politically motivated restrictions on health care. >> are you done, joe? >> i am, micah. >> micah here. by the way, he's got a very calming presence. you're like the mr. rodgers of

the democratic field. >> i think it was intended as a compliment. >> jacket off. we've got an incredible field of candidates, they're all exciting. nobody screams foreign policy expert to me. so i just want to ask you a random question. besides sanctioning, what other steps should the united states take to get north korea to halt its missile program? >> unfortunately we moved in exactly the wrong direction by legitimatizing their leadership. in soft power terms through a sum that didnmit that didn't ha right kind of preconditions. so getting that back on the right track. sanctions belong in our national security portfolio i think will be a lot more effective than

holding a summit, weirdly declaring the nuclear threat is not a problem and being embarrassingly contradicted by your own chiefs in congress. >> claire, you have the next question. >> mayor pete, you've been crushing it out there. >> thank you. >> i've been paying attention. you are somebody who i think has good ideas, somebody who has executed on a local level. i think one of the most interesting things about you that i'm sure people do not know, how many languages do you speak speak? >> depends what you mean by speak. i've gotten pretty rusty on my arabic and bly dari. i can still read a newspaper in norwegian but only slowly. >> you speak spanish? you speak -- you are someone who clearly has been interested in learning more and being intellectually curious.

how important do you think that is for a president of the united states? >> i think curiosity is a really important quality for leadership, being motivated to peel back the layers and see the story behind the story. it frightens me that we have such an incurious president right now. i don't think he's inclined to ask questions, obviously he doesn't read a lot. how could you be in that office and not use the fact you could have lunch with a nasa regulator and then also -- one of america's great qualities is we've always been a curious country. it's part of what america's p r entrepreneurianship is built on. >> how do you tell the people

when you govern a city that has the population not even a quarter of staten island? >> that question is fair game. i would say a mayor of a city at any level has the kind of executive experience that is most relevant to that job. when you're a mayor, especially in a strong mayor system like ours where we don't have a city manager, for example, you get the call. it could be anything about a multi-million dollar in an industrial park or deciding whether to operate the emergency management system for a weather emergency. i would argue that work, being mayor of a city of any size is arguably more relevant. i don't mean any disrespect of senator mccaskill's former colleagues doing very good work in congress right now. i think it shows right now that we have a president who does he not have government experience

and it may be a little cheeky for me to say this as the youngest gee in the and. >> i love mayors. they always say there are not republicans streetlights and potholes. you mentioned you've had to compromise with republicans in order to get things done in south bend. can you give us an example where you compromised with republicans that was hard in order to improve the lives of people in your city. >> one thing i had to do they decided to do the right thing and adjust the gas tax so we would have more funds to fill in potholes and but i knew it was

the root thing from the infrastructure structure. when you're a mayor, you have to work with anybody who is in a position to help your state. needless to say, i have some very strong opinions about meek pence, so does he my house, but. >> all right. >> but let's go back to some of the things that you said at the beginning. whether you want to be defined along a political spectrum or not, people are going to try to define you. you're for the green new deal, you're for medicare for all with a few asterisks, it sounds like you're going to get defined pretty star over on the progressive spectrum. >> i think we have to decide are we going to keep being defined where these fence posts are or

do what the right very successfully did and redefine them? aca, which was a confirm tiff proposal, what is medicare for all? it's a, the true left-wing position and the compromise is a single system where you have private doctors but a public pair. we have to stop moving the goalpost -- >> respectfully it's not the right that's moving at the moment. it's the democrats. we have 15 candidates who are trying to figure out. naturally it's not surprising.

>> are you making that sound dirty, steve? >> no, i wasn't trying to. >> you were saying it so accusingly. >> there's this cycle we're in the middle of but there's the bigger project of making sure the center of gravity of american pop tiks is lined up with the people. today on the anniversary of the parkland shootings, you have universal background check, for example, something that most gun and the right did a mast areful job pulling the right further to the right of the spectrum than where most people already are. most people get that wages are too low and we have to do something about that. i don't think it's a crazy idea that we have to have a sense of

urgency or emergency even, that we have to do something about climate change that acknowledges if as an emergency that really is in its destructive power on par with something like the great depression or world war ii. of course we have to have something off on the skam scale of a new. >> good luck to you. come back. claire mccaskill, thank you as well. great to see you. >> you bet. >> it's been nearly a year since form now he's speaking out about his time leading the bureau and his time spent investigating the president. that's next on "morning joe." it's time for the ultimate sleep number event on the

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zoun jo joining us now from the foreign relations committee, jeff, what do you make of ryan zinke joining the lobbying

agency? >> first trump brings a swamp inside the executive branch and he wasn't serious about plugging any loopholes. may >> i'm going to ask you about the deal to avert a shutdown. is there any concern that the clause in this deal that says the border barriers, the 55 miles that are in the deal, may not be made of concrete is too much of a jab at president trump and he might actually balk? >> no. they say you don't want a concrete wall, you don't know what's going on on the other side. the president did recognize that was a foolish idea and started talking about his see-through slats. i think the president is going to sign this deal, which is worse than the deal he could

have had before the shutdown and then then he's going to try to -- >> my idea katty, he's still going to say he's not buying this. >> is there an opportunity here or does he it have -- could mor done by democrats to get more on immigration? >> no, i think this is where it comes out, with some bored are security, improving the ports of entry considerably. we've had various initiatives that included republicans putting ideas forward to tackle

a broader immigration bill, to tackle the dreamers. i found little republican support for taking on the horrific conduct treating migrant children a political strategy based on traumatizing, injuring children. it's horrific it's unethical. it's from a dark place. we have to end it. >> are you running for president? >> oh. >> well, i'm going to decide by the end of the quarter and i'll stick with that for now. >> let me ask you a follow krup. where do you stand on the new deal proposal? >> yes, i support the vision of the green new deal and i support the vision. we have to greatly accelerate

the transition to renewable energy. it's the cheapest form of energy and we can do it in a fashion that brings jobs to communities that have been left behind, a front line community. so this is a win-win on many levels. >> all right. senator jeff merkley. let us know when you decide. this field is not enough. >> we need a few more. maybe one more a day. >> former acting fbi director who was routinely attacked by president trump on twitter and later fired just hours before he became eligible for a full pension benefits is speaking out in a new interview with cbs this morning. mccabe stood firm that the decisions of rod rosenstein wearing a wire to the white house was not a joke, that it came up more than once and he tyke it to fbi lawyers to discuss it. in this clip, mccabe talks about

the steps he took to protect the fbi's investigation into trump and russia and the fear he had that someone would stop it. >> i was speaking for the man who had just run for the presidency and won the election for the presidency, and who might have done so with the aide of the government of russia, our most formidable adversary on the world stage and that was something that troubled me greatly. >> how long was it after that that you decided to start the obstruction of justice and counter intelligence investigations involving the president? >> i think the next day i met with the team investigating the russia cases and i asked the team to go back and conduct an assessment to determine where are we with these efforts and what steps do we need to take going forward? i was very concerned that i was

able to put the russia case on absolutely solid ground in an indelible fashion that were i removed quickly or reassigned or fired, that the case could not be closed or vanish in the night without a trace. i wanted to make sure that our case was on solid ground and if somebody came in behind me and closed it and tried to walk away from it they would not be able to do that without creating a record of why they made that decision. >> you wanted a documentary record that those investigations had become because you feared that they would be made to go away? >> that's exactly right. >> andrew mccabe will be our guest on "morning joe" next week. what do you think? >> i think it's quite stunning that he's coming out and saying straight away he knew there was a problem and that he was going to go in. but the way that he handled it i think going in talking making those jokes and saying he was going to wear a wire in i think

it's tricky for his credibility. >> he's saying now the discussions were not a joke. this is something they were considering and that obviously dealt with a thunder clap in the white house. we know what shaky ground rosenstein has been on throughout although the attorney general is expected to be leaving soon anyway, but it goes to show how serious the matter was handled right from the beginning. it defies the president's attempts to label it as a witch hunt. >> we look forward to asking him more questions about this next week. still ahead, bob mueller is already hot on paul manafort's trail. now a judge ruled that mueller no longer has to honor his deal with manafort because paul manafort lied. we'll explain why that is significant. also, this announcement for years now i've been helping women advocate for themselves to get what they deserve. in all aspects of their lives to know their value.

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it is thursday, february 14th. with us, we have washington anchor for bbc world news america, white house reporter for the associated press, former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst is with us and nbc news national political reporter, and former chief of staff at the cia and department of defense now on nbc news national security analyst, jeremy bash is with us and joe, there's major news in the mueller probe this morning, but politically, frame it out for us. trump is faring well politically. >> yeah, let's look at the latest gallop poll that has just come out. of course donald trump got really beaten up badly during the government shutdown, but the latest gallup poll shows he's up to 44% now. his disapproval rating down from

58, 59% in mid january now to 52%. that's a heck of a turn around and mika, it just unfortunately this goes back to what i've been telling audiences for a very long time and unfortunately you've had to hear me talk about time and time again how one party gets elected, they overreach, and then it actually helps the party that had just been defeated. i mean, donald trump obviously did well because he had a lot of the country's eyes and ears during the state of the union address even though it was a rambling as the wall street journal said sort of a zigzag sort of thing. but he had a closing argument. and the closing argument was made up in large part of mistakes, unforced errors that the democrats have already made. you can talk about the botched rollout for the green new deal, you can talk about the anti

sematic statements that one member said. you can talk about what's going on in virginia, the blackface controversies there. you can talk about the late term abortion celebrations in the new york legislature. you can talk about a lot of these different things that again, give donald trump a reason to say, don't -- don't look at the mistakes that i've made. look at these extremists. i'm here to protect you from the extreme democrats. i know of what i speak because bill clinton got elected in 1992 with 43% of the vote. people like me got elected in 1994. we immediately went too far right and we -- what did we do? rere-elected bill clinton and i've said time and time again bush won in 2004, they talked about a permanent republican majority, two years later nancy

pelosi was in place. two years later americans said you overreached. they elected the tea party, the tea party overreached two years later, barack obama was reelected and then donald trump. democrats get elected, they've only been there for two months and they've already given donald trump his closing argument for the 2020 campaign. now, listen, i'm not telling democrats to be what they are not, mika. i am just going to repeat what i said before yesterday. and that is, before you hold a press conference, before you put your talking points up on -- on -- on your office -- before you say anything that you think is going to be controversial, ask yourself a question.

wwnd? what would nancy do? because she has already proven she knows how to defeat donald trump. there are a lot of young democrats that haven't even been in congress for two months and they are offering donald trump way too much fodder. yes, he's a hypocrite. yes, he's a racist. yes, he is all the things that we say he is every single day but unlike us in '94 republicans, we had newt to go to and his ideas were crazier than ours. they've got somebody who knows how to win, who knows how to put together the largest majority, the largest victory since water gate and also again, i will say it again, somebody that knows how to beat donald trump. democrats can't afford any more unforced errors because all they are doing is making the once

unthinkable now possible and that is the election of donald trump in 2020. they've got to play smarter. >> and with that analysis we now follow the news. there are two tracks here, a federal court ruling last night finds that paul manafort intentionally lied to the mueller investigation about contacts with an operative li g linked to russian intelligence who manafort had an in-person meeting with while he was serving as donald trump's campaign chairman in august of 2016. district judge jackson ruled that manafort meant to lie on at least three issues and that federal bros cue to feder federal prosecutors are no longer bound to suggest a lighter sentence for manafort. he made multiple false statements about his interactions and communications

with a man who has linked to russian intelligence. manafort ruled to the fbi. the special council's office and the mueller grand jury with payments to a law firm, that the matter was material to their investigation along with false statements in october of last year that were material to another doj investigation. the judge said prosecutors failed to show that manafort lied in two other instances. this new ruling could affect the severity of punishment for paul manafort. he is scheduled to be sentenced on march 13th. i -- the level of stupidity is unbelievable but this is a big step in the mueller probe. a big win for bob mueller. >> a big step in the probe, jeremy, i have to ask you and

i'm not being facetious here or not trying to be funny in the least, but how in the world can these people be so stupid? how can they be so dumb? rick gates proffers, makes a deal, proffers lies, gets caught. paul manafort makes a deal, proffers, lies. all these people lie. they all lie to bob mueller and they all get caught. i feel like singing where have all the flowers gone? when will they ever learn? you're not going to be able to slip anything past this guy. so what's it mean for the overall case. >> when you have an enormous secret you may engage in extreme sue pidty to cover it up. manafort had an opportunity to reduce his sentence after he was convicted, after he pled guilty. there are only two tickets out

of prison when you have pled guilty. one is to cooperate, to be truthful, to basically open the books on everything you know, but the other path is a pardon and i think in some respects manafort was digging in here hoping to telegraph to the president that he's holding firm, kind of like roger stone and that a pardon should be coming his way. but the big question looming over all of this is why were they covering up this link between the ties to russian intelligence and the campaign. what was it about that that made all these people engage in not just stupidity but reckless conduct. >> so what makes the sense to you? >> i think they were covering up the ties between the trump organization and the russia federation. they haven't wanted that exposed to bob mueller and his investigators. >> and those ties, i just -- you know, wondering why and you

know, why would the collusion necessarily be a focus of donald trump? i think for donald trump it always comes down to money. and it -- could it be that this was all about money and nothing about anything else that mueller is looking into? >> well, we know that he's had business dealings and was trying to get trump tower off again in moscow. all through 2016 so there was one specific business dealings going on. reports looking into whether he had money lent him in order to fund his businesses and that's all under investigation as well. the key is why in august of 2016 did paul manafort and rick gates, number one and two on the campaign, sit down with him and were they discussing some kind of peace deal for ukraine which was broadly seen as a prelude to america lifting sanctions

against ukraine and that would start the pieces of a quid proquo. we don't know what was discussed. you've just come out of the convention, the republican convention that softened the platform when it came to russia over ukraine and then you have this meeting with a russian operative talking about lifting sanctions and some sort of peace deal. the bits of the puzzle are fitting together. we just don't have all of the pieces yet. >> joe. >> let's talk about usa today headline regarding the mueller investigation. very interesting. donald trump and the republican party have added $2 trillion to the national debt. this news from the usa today. with all the forfeitures, with all the guilty pleas, with all the penalties, the mueller inquiry may actually be turning a profit. >> well, we can certainly use a profit. we're heading for a deficit of $2 trillion so every bit will help us to get back to some kind

of fiscal sanity but it's not going to be enough to make much of a difference. the most logical explanation for all that's going on here and of course the inappropriateness, the manafort in the middle of the campaign in 2016 off trying to do either his own business for the ukraine with the russians or somebody else's business with the russians for the ukraines, who knows, but it's obviously another example of the kind of behavior that went on in the trump campaign. >> manafort did owe a lot of money to individuals in ukraine and russia. it's possible this was entirely to try and get himself off the hook. >> still ahead on "morning joe," twitter likes don't necessarily translate to votes but that's not stopping the 2020 candidates. jim is taking a closer look at which presidential contenders are making their mark on social media. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. right back. i think it will fit.

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let's bring in the cofounder and ceo of oxos. this is a democrat other than congress wam cortez. who is it? >> it's kamala harris and we looked at the last three months. we looked aut all the immediate platforms and she is really crushing it compared to the other candidates. other than facebook where sanders does quite well, she is being searched more, she's doing better on instagram and twitter, better on these platforms which i think speaks to why so many democrats you talk to who are in the race now think that she's doing better than anyone else and she's had bigger crowds and a better rollout, that she has this following that she's starting to grow on social media. we're seeing her pick up more

followers on all those platforms than others. and who cares? why does that matter? it matters profoundly because this is the cheapest way to communicate with voters at scale and it's showing there's something about her message that's resonating more with the grass roots, in particular those on social media than the other candidates and i think she has a big advantage and it's one the aoc has which is she's new, she's different. i think there's a penalty sometimes in politics for having done it before and i think that's going to be a challenge for warren and sanders in particular. >> that leads to the next question. what exactly is she doing? is it something other candidates can emulate or is it just something that has more to do with her own personal brand? >> i think it has a lot more to do with her personal brand. the thing about social media, you can't fake it. one of the things that candidates should learn is

authenticity matters. if you're no different communicating on these platforms than you are in private. that's when it works. if someone is trying to craft your message you end up getting what hillary clinton got to seem so authentic that social media isn't as great a vehicle for you. in this era we say money and politics, money doesn't matter as much if you're really good on social media because it's free. i would keep an eye on her. beto o'rourke, if he gets in, he's got on social media. it also shows where the energy is and it loops back to what joe was saying which is democrats need to be very aware how much sort of the green deal and socialism are playing early on. there's definitely a catching fire with the base and all these candidates are endorsing it and there's a consequence to it.

i think that might be one of the reasons why trump's reasons is starting to pick back up. it's the juxtathposition versus socialism. there's a lot of things in that green deal that are going to scare voters and even some democratic voters and to to me is the trend in the first three months of this campaign. >> jim nailed something i talk about a lot, that is that authenticity factor, you are the same way you are when you're presenting yourself on social media. it's like gayle king. i've known her for 30 years and she is the same person everywhere she is and a lot of these candidates are women. i think it's a challenge, a challenge that hillary clinton struggled with. >> i think what kamala harris does quite well is she brings some of her personal life into

her twitter feeds. her husband tweets and he's super supportive and you get a sense there's somebody, a whole life beyond just the policy prescriptions she's putting out there. i think that adds to the authenticity and letting you see the person kind of opening the curtains a bit. beto o'rourke is shows you on the occasion it can go on the other direction. >> oh, too personal. >> do we want to see his dentist treatment? no. you have to use it carefully where you're not going too far the other way. >> real. >> mika, i mean, we can talk about beto, we can always talk about you. don't overshare. sometimes you overshare. you and beto have that in common. >> i have never seen mika's

teeth. >> but wait a minute. >> joe makes a good point. coming up on "morning joe," congress has hammered out a budget agreement but it's not yet a done deal. we'll break down what's in the border compromise and whether president trump will sign it. "morning joe" is coming right back. orning joe" is coming righ back fidelity is redefining value.

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the bill to avert another government shutdown has been filed. a vote in the senate is expected today with one in the house later tonight as funding expires at midnight friday. the leaders negotiating the deal announced around 12:00 a.m. that the report was finalized. a total of $22.5 billion is going to border security with 1.375 billion funding physical barriers under the restrictions that they do not use concrete or trump wall prototypes. that's written in there. much of the new spending increase goes toward other security and humanitarian needs including about a half a billion dollars each for both new equipment at the ports of entry

and humanitarian aid at the border. hundreds of millions more will fund hiring 600 new customs officers, 75 additional judge teams and over half a billion dollars will go to assistance to central american countries. while the deal has major domestic provisions including a 1.9% pay increase for federal workers it does not include an extension of the violence against women act due to an agreement over ex- tendsing back pay to federal law workers. it looks like there's a lot in there that people can work with that's constructive. >> well, there is a lot in there. it also is plainly obvious that donald trump has lost this battle, but he's got no choice. right? i mean, this ends by him signing the bill and you know, looking at his poll numbers and saying well, you know what?

i picked up 6, 7 points, so why not? let it go through. >> that is the sense we're getting from the white house. let's remember what happened in december. it looked like he was going to sign that as well and listen to the voices in the media and then he backed away. the conservative media is still split on this. others seem more inclined to give him some cover, that he should take a win, say you got more than democrats originally offering and then go with it and try to redefine other money through other ways. some sort of executive action, repurpose other government funds but there's a recognition from the president and people around him that he cannot afford to go through another shutdown. setting aside the real world consequences including federal workers not getting paid. looking at it through a political lens, it was a devastating blow to the president. the last time when the government was shut down for

more than a month, his poll numbers are starting to creep back up again. you expect to hear in the last day or so before this comes law that he will, you know, try to paint it as a democratic mistake. he'll try to paint them as soft on border security. but it's a recognition, he's not happy about it but he'll sign it. >> is that what your reporting shows you this is going to be signed whether donald trump likes it or not? >> at this point yes. a few things worth pointing out here, number one, this bill is not appreciably different than anything he would have gotten before the 35-day shut down which hurt the economy, put a lot of individuals at extreme financial risk and so on and so forth. this is a deal he could have gotten in december or the last six months. number two, in march of last

year he signed a big spending bill and said i will never do this again. no one had time to read it. this is huge. this doesn't have all of my priorities i will never do it again. an 1100-page bill was released last night and the senate is going to vote on it and the house will vote on it tonight. he's going to do the same thing he promised he wouldn't do last time. so just another couple of examples of governing in the era of trump which is incredibly -- it's a roller coaster ride is the only real way to put it and there's no consistency and no real pattern that we could draw from to make conclusions. coming up on "morning joe" -- >> i am shook to my core. i can't bring her back but these amazing kids and this amazing community, i can only say people messed with the wrong people. we're not letting this go. our children need to be able to go to school. all i did on valentine's day, a

day of love, my wife's favorite holiday, all that i did is i sent my kid to school. >> that's fred guttenberg who joined us eight days after his daughter jamie and 16 others were murdered at their school. that massive shooting in florida happened one year ago today. we'll look at what has change and what hasn't next on "morning joe." d what hasn't next on "morg joe. if you have moderate to severe psoriasis,

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the gunman was ambushing my door and shot through the glass. they all went scrambling and we heard the shots and he was aiming anywhere. anywhere that he found movement. i was waiting for him to open the door because all you had to do is reach your hand and i could see the door from where i was crouched with the kids and he could have easily opened the door. i was thinking to myself, what am i going to do?

i'm going to say something. i was going to stand up and i didn't know if i'd get the chance, but my first reaction was i'm going to stand up and i'm going to say, we love you because i thought, how can you shoot people that love you? >> that was a look at the new documentary entitled parkland inside building 12 which is available on digital and am von. the film pairs footage from students along with more than 40 exclusive interviews with survivors to recount the evens of the deadliest school shooting in u.s. history that took place one year ago today. the judiciary committee approved two bills that would expand federal background checks for firearm purchases. the move makes good on democrats' promise to swiftly combat gun violence since taking control of the house but the legislation is unlikely to pass

in the senate. joining us now, a member of the house judiciary committee, debbie powell of florida. she's also been personally affected begun violence. thank you for being on the show this morning. >> good morning. thank you for having me on. >> tell me about your personal -- the impact gun violence has had on your life personally. >> when i was 24 years old i got a phone call that my father had been shot and killed by a criminal with a gun. and i can tell you, mika, that at that moment, there is so much trauma involved when you lose someone in that manner. my life changed forever. my father never got a chance to meet my husband, or my kids and every single time that i hear about those massacres and these shootings, every time that pain and the frustration of inaction really -- really is felt very

deeply and i have been for many years not just now, but for many years a very strong advocate that we have to pass common sense gun reform laws when we experienced a year ago the shooting in parkland, it was such a difficult moment. i went and i met with parkland families about a woke afteek af shooting. i met a mother who lost her daughter who was for hours waiting to see if she was alive or not. no one could give her that information. i met some of the young students who were in the classroom whose best friends were shot and killed right next to them and we really lost a part of our soul in florida that day. and now being a member of the house judiciary committee, yesterday was such an important day for us. for me and for lucy mcbeth who lost her son to gun violence as well. >> this bill on expanding

background checks, it's moving forward, but expected not to make it. why? >> well, i -- i wouldn't say that. i -- i am known to be a little bit of an idealist and that's fine, and i'm very optimistic that we can move it along. it will pass on the house floor. i can tell you, mika, that yesterday we were there for hours. i mean, we were there for almost 11 hours trying to pass this bill through committee and the republicans, i mean, it was shameful to watch. they were using every delay tactic in the book for us to not be able to pass this bill through committee. i am very confident we're going to introduce and bring the bill to the floor for a vote in about two to three weeks, and we've been talking to senators who are seriously considering voting for the bill. it's going to be close. i'm not giving up and we are not going to give up until we pass

this bill. >> congresswoman, obviously in the aftermath of this shooting a year ago x the students in parkland became real symbols and inspired a lot of people. they organized marches, they did a lot of interviews and so on and there was a lot of energy around the issue. those demonstrations, a lot of those marches have faded away. but what do you think the legacy of those students will be? >> oh, i am here in congress because of their activism and because they've used that pain and channelled it through political actions, standing up, speaking truth to power. that energy is not going anywhere. while i'm in congress, ted deutsch who represents parkland and many others, jason crow from colorado, they are teaching us what it's like to have political courage to stand up for what it's like. to not give up.

yesterday there were many -- they sat with us for hours. my son actually is with me this week, my 13-year-old son and what i'm teaching him because i want him to learn from the students standing up and they need to hold all of us accountable. democrats, republicans, it doesn't matter. their legacy is going to be felt forever and it starts with hr 8. i can tell you that. >> we'll keep up hope with you. >> we also want to get your take on what former acting fbi director andrew mccabe said in a new interview with cbs news. mccabe stood firm that the discussions of rod rosenstein wearing a wire to the white house was not a joke, that if it came up more than once, and he took it to fbi lawyers to discuss it actually. take a listen to this. mccabe talks about the steps that he took to protect the

fbi's investigation into trump and russia and the fear that he had that someone would try and stop it. >> i was speaking to the man who had just run for the presidency and won the election for the presidency. and who might have done so with the aid of the government of russia, our most formidable adversary on the world stage and that was something that troubled me greatly. >> how long was it after that that you decided to start the obstruction of justice and counter intelligence investigations involving the president? >> i think the next day i met with the team investigating the russia cases and i asked the team to go back and conduct an assessment to determine where are we with these efforts and what steps do we need to take going forward? i was very concerned that i was able to put the russia case on absolutely solid ground in an

indelible fashion that were i removed quickly or reassigned or fired, that the case could not be closed or vanish in the night without a trace. i wanted to make sure that our case was on solid ground and if somebody came in behind me and closed it and walked away from it they would not be able to do that without a record of why they made that decision. >> you want add documentary record that those investigations had begun because you feared they would be made to go away. >> exactly right. >> and scott who conducted the interview also reported that mccabe said that during the eight days from jim comey's firing to robert mueller's appoint appointment to special counsel there were meetings to see whether the majority of the cabinet could be brought together to remove the president

under the amendment. just your thoughts on the mccabe interview and your thoughts. that's a lot. >> i woke up to the news. here's what i can tell you. as a member of the judiciary committee, i am taking my role very seriously and i can tell you that many of my colleagues are as well that we are now in charge of oversight. that is our constitutional duty. it is our job. we have hired two of the leading attorneys who really are very well respected in investigating cases of corruption, obstruction. we are getting ready. it's very troubling and i don't have to remind all of the lis n listeners this morning that we have had 35 indictments that we have an administration that is under investigation, that our job right now is to make sure we protect that investigation and get all the facts and then follow those facts where they

may lead us but we saw what happened over the past two years when we had republicans control the house. we had no oversight. no checks and balances. we're here now and we're ready to do whatever we need to do to protect our democracy. >> thank you very much for being on the show this morning. come back. >> thank you, mika. >> andrew mccabe will be a guest next wednesday. a small riot broke out yesterday in a mexican shelter where hundreds of migrants are being held while they wait for a chance to apply for refuge in the united states. some were yelling, we're hungry, let us out. we've been covering the crisis at the border. we'll be right back. r. we'll be right back. news for an- uh uh - i'm the one who delivers the news around here. ♪ liberty mutual has just announced that they can customize your car insurance

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cancer, epilepsy, mental health, hiv. patients with serious diseases are being targeted for cuts to their medicare drug coverage. new government restrictions would allow insurance companies to come between doctor and patient. and deny access to individualized therapies millions depend on. call the white house today. help stop cuts to part d drug coverage that put medicare patients at risk. you should be mad at leaf blowers. [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated.

but you're not mad, because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler. so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. >> how does it feel to wait here? >> this is anguish, she says. the kids get desperate. if we get desperate as adults she said imagine as the kids. >> that is one -- nice to see you, one migrant mother's plea waiting at the border for her visa to be approved. joining us live from mexico, msnbc correspondent. >> reporter: i'm on the mexican side of the border.

behind me is eagle pass, texas. check out the border patrol cars behind me. that is a u.s. city on high alert, mika. and why? it is because here about 1,700 members of the last migrant caravan arrived a week ago with hopes of seeking refuge in the united states. but these people are not roaming about mexico, mika. they're fenced in this factory termed shelter. not allowed to leave unless they have papers. we were there on the ground as a riot broke out. mexican authorities quickly clamping down on it and i spoke with that one young mom holding her one-year-old baby boy, she told me she feel like she's in prison. >> what is your message to president trump?

she says she wishes donald trump would not refer to them in a racist way, they're human beings. they want to provide for their kids. we are human beings. that is her message. i spoke to organizations on the ground here who told me this could be a first glimpse into donald trump's main mexico policy. migrants don't have to be fenced in while they wait but these families are made to wait while they process asylum. >> msnbc's mariana atencio,

thank you very much. a special look at what's really happening with the border. tonight at 8:00 eastern. joining us, william barber, president of repairer of the breach and co-chair of poor people's campaign. thank you for being here. it's hard not to look at what is happening in the border. you hear the stories of the sep rae separations of children. what is the part we're not seeing? >> i've been to the border. one family who had not seen her husband or children for 16 years. i touched the hand of a child. this is a sin of the highest order. i'm a christian evangelical. i grew up in the christian faith. one of the most clear

policy alies is immigrants. this a tattack on children. we know it's brown children. white supremacy, wihite nationalism, right in front of our faces. >> the second fear, i'll pass it to catty, it feels it's stepped in, just as the reverend says, racism. >> issues like this, about the children being separateled at the border, is there any sympathy for policies of trying to keep them out of the country? are people mobilized around these issues in the christian church? >> too often what we hear, those

who call themselves religious right, theological malpractice. orthodox religion is clear. you're supposed to be on the side of the poor, the stranger, the sick, the least of thee. people are hurt. they're crying. know what is happening. they say it's so wrong for a country of immigrants to be hating on immigrants. their own grand mothers and grandfathers couldn't go here. a lot offe the reasons people a fleeing is because of our own bad policies. this is about white nationalism. this is about the changing democrats of mark. this is somebody who is showing us what racist policy look it is like. that's one of the things i want to talk more about, mika, is

policy. racism, leakike a picture or wo but what we're seeing is policy. this is the 260th day that the congress has refused to fix. we call storm thurmond a racist and he only fila bustered the civil rights act for one day. mcconnell, ryan, boehner, have blocked fix being ting the votis act. we have less protections today. policy racism. when you cut health caring. and you know it's going to have an impact on brown people, that's policy racism. when you know voter suppression is happening in 26 states. as ginsburg said, when they cut

section 5, that's like putting up your umbrella in the middle of a rain storm just because you're not getting wet. here's the irony of all of this. where we have to make the connection. the same people pushing these policies of racialized voter suppression turn around and use the power they receive by dividing people. dividing black and brown people who have the opportunity to make a change and hurt mostly worst white people. the majority of the poor people, 140 million people poor in this country, the majority of them are white. they fool people to vote for them because i hate immigrants and immigrants are the problem. this they get votes and they turn right around, every one of these states, for instance, are also states that have low health

carry accession and most of the people not being helped are white. not as cultural only and pictures and word als but polic racism. >> we've had the governor and other officials admitting to using blackface in the past. you write about repenting. >> repenting, when he wanted -- basically jesus said okay, restore. what you've done. some people said earlier resign. i step back and say wait. if you reseign, it's somebody wo is involved in voter racism. they were found guilty in the courts of surgical racism.

let's step back. the repentance could be -- northam doing a major speech on racism. then immediately laying out policy. for instance, he could say the union -- african-american community where environmental racism is happening because of that atlantic pipeline, i'm no longer going to support that pipeline. i'm going to look at the issue of public education and mass incarceration. not just look at it but now. just having an apology is not enough. and just only talking about it. i challenge the media. if we only talk about racism when somebody talks about a pit off picture 30 years ago, we're not dealing with real racism. we need to look at what's happening with the federal jgs on the courts.

62 million persons make less than a living wage. we need to look at voter suppression happening across the country. we need a real serious focus on racism and how that tie als to economic policy. and the false moral narrative. >> part of that is because of our history. we recognize black history month. told you wanted to talk about martin luther keing jr. and his speech in montgomery. tell us more. >> you have to get past i have a dream. we got to montgomery under the threat of death. dr. king gave one of his most brilliant sermons.

he said something about he did a diagnose that help us today. he said every time there's the posability for poor whites and poor blacks to join together and build a more just society he said the bourbon class or the ariei aerostock sews division. it doesn't have to be. those states are not rich states. they're unorganized states. they need a moral infusion dr. king talked about where black people and white people understand. if you're poor and you can't. so we need to get together. against extremism. >> reverend, thank you. please come back.

>> thank you. >> talk more about this. it's been quite a show today. that does it for us this morning. stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage. >> this morning, we've got to start with crimes and lies. a judge finds president trump's former campaign manager intentionally misled prosecuteers. the fbi and a grand jury about his russian contacts. potentially adding year, to his prison sentence. and listenering question this morning, why repeatedly lie about rash? it's going to be devastating to manafort. he would lose his chance of a pardon. >> a bipartisan border deal to avoid another partial government shutdown. a deal that brings the president's border