almost committed the perfect murder. and who better to do that than a police officer and a police officer. that's all for this edition of "dateline," i'm natalie moralis. thanks for watching. good morning. i'm morgan radford, new york city and msnbc world headquarters. 6:00 in the east, 3 out west and here's what's happening. a new 2020 poll with surprising results as a flurry of democrats hit the hawkeye state for a big event slated for tonight. real deal? new reporting and new questions on the mexican deal. and iran threat. a new video from the edges of the persian gulf and what one gentleman is saying about prospects for a u.s. conflict. >> left behind.

one group of americans feeling the effects of a tax bill. hear what they say why it is putting them out of business. new today, a fresh pole from iowa. the first 2020 caucus data. it shows the top and bottom of the big democratic field. joe biden is leading by 24%. it's a virtual tie for second among three candidates, bernie sanders, elizabeth warren and pete buttigieg. kamala harris is in fifth place with 7%. only two other candidates pulled above 1%, that was senator amy klobuchar, former congressman beto o'rourke. later today 19, yes, i said that, 19 presidential candidates are slated to speak at the big

biggest event. the iowa state caucus dinner. thank you so much for joining us this morning, gentlemen. jonathan, i want to begin with you. the pole found that biden's supporters specifically are less enthusiastic about him than supporters of the other candidates. this was taken right before biden's about face on the height amendment and the support. is the waning enthusiasm at this point significant? >> good morning, morgan. i think it is. i think what you see in this poll, there are a million different ways to cut the numbers, basically what you see is 1/4 of them in favor of joe biden, half of them in favor of the next four candidates, and about 1/4 split among the

remaining candidates. this is a position if you're the former vice president, you'd really rather be in a better place right now. when i talk to voters in states across the country, when i talk to people who are biden supporters, loosely biden supporters, a lot of that has to do with them having familiarity with him. what we saw with this issue with the height amendment over the past several days is the pitfalls of experience. joe biden has a long record and in some cases he may have to change positions or explain why he has, as politicians like to say, evolved. >> he did say evolve. how will that play with his base? will that undercut some of the credibility he is appreciated for among his supporters? david, support for elizabeth

warren jumped and so didn't it for pete buttigieg. >> they have the most growth potential. they have been in iowa repeatedly unlike, say, former vice president joe biden who has picked his spots about where he has campaigned. he has not had a heavy schedule in iowa. i think that's a matter of showing up. people i've talked to there say they want to meet the candidates, see them repeatedly. one thing about both of them, they have their own message. senator warren, you might agree with her or not, she knows why she wants to run. bought at this geg, he seems to be hitting it off with ioeye oi voters. >> what's going to happen as the field expands more. jonathan and grek, stig, stick for us. in the meantime, new

reporting about the immigration deal haled by president trump and some republicans after it averted the president's threat to impose tariffs on mexico. "the new york times" says the agreement consisted of largely of actions mexico had promised to take in prior discussions with the united states. the tooims cites both sides and yesterday my colleague amitriptyline alex witt whether this was actually a good deal for his country? >> i think it's a terrible deal for mexico. we're doing the united states dirty work for it, but if the choice was tariffs or this bad deal, probably this bad deal is better. if you don't do what i want, i will slap tariffs on you. that's pretty much what i call extorsion. the proof of it is president trump backed off the minute he got most of what he wanted. >> he calls it extorsion.

meanwhile, there's growing backlash over the trump administration canceling english classes, even unaccompanied minors. we asked annette baragan if there was any chance for a solution? >> reporter: i think my colleagues agree that children shouldn't be treated this way. i think where there's a difference is what to do about it. my colleagues want to put a stop to immigration and they want to put a stop to allowing these children who are escaping violence to come to this country, whereas, we believe the law's clear and we're a country of immigrants where we are here to make sure there's an all continue native for people escaping violence. >> after nbc news first reported that the trump administration is rejecting requests to fly the

rainbow pride flag, the u. sms. post says they are rejecting that. they're finding creative ways to highlight lgbt pride. mike va kara at the white house. on the topic of immigration, what is the latest? >> reporter: there's a criticism, morgan, this is old wine in new bottles. the administration is repacking new programs they were retaking with mexico that were underway or expanding them and presenting it as a break through. the context here, morgan, the president was under a lot of pressure from his own party. republicans in the senate, in particular were defiant. they tonight like states. they were swing states or crucial states in the upcoming election in terms of keeping arizona, texas, michigan and

iowa as well. "the new york times," as you have mentioned, came out with an article last night that sort of outlines this secret meeting, as they put it, that kirstjen nielsen, the former secretary of homeland security had back in march to talk about expanding the number of mexican guard tloops would be near the bottom there. the problem is the migrants are making their way through mexico through the southern border of the u.s. this is an expansion, 6,000 enough national guard troops from mexico and a program that would grant asylum or have people that want to expand the asylum for people to wait in mexico. a lot of spin going on back and forth.

nancy pelosi, you might not be surprised, said threats and tantrum are no way to conduct foreign policy. chuck schumer stated very plainly in his view the president backed down. >> threats and tantrums are the latest on this immigration enforcement deal. thank you so much for joining us. back with us now, we have jonathan allen, a political reporter at nbc news and david mark with the washington examiner. you heard what we just heard mike viquera say. there are two main parts of the tariff agreement. that is deploying troops and holding asylum seekers in mexico. they say that these were hammered out really months ago. is there anything new in this deal? if there's not, what was this ter riff exercise about? >> no, there's not. the tariff exercise was about

the president signaling that he's doing everything he can to try to crack down on illegal immigration. what we have seen during his presidency certainly in the last several months is this huge surge towards the u.s. border. he has not been able to get accomplished what he promised to get accomplished. i think he's trying to find ways to explain that. i think he's trying to look for new scapegoats to get that failure done. he's been blaming commerce but after that he reappropriated some money that had been appropriated. that's not going to get done in time. it may get stopped in court. now he's saying people can't even come into the u.s. he's trying to explain the numbers that don't look good for the promise he made. >> building a narrative. david, if mexico did agree to do this months ago, why did they send their top negotiators?

were they playing along? >> they're dealing with the unknown. they never know when the president or the administration officials under the president's direction are going to change their mind just because there was a deal hammered out months ago doesn't mean it sticks tomorrow. i think negotiators from mexico want to make sure that whatever they've discussed in the past still sticks and they've got to know they've got to deploy their observe resources, those 6,000 or so national guard members along the southern border with guatemala, and they want to know if they still need to do that. >> so i want to pivot here, jonathan, for a moment. we heard earlier what mike viquera said quoting house speaker nancy pelosi. she made headlines saying she'd rather see the president imprisoned than impeached. the dpem kratz wrote down their

decisions. there are those who oppose impeachment and the base who demand it. then there's the skeptics and finally the die hards there at the bottom. determined to impeach this president because they think he's, quote, a singular threat to the republic. do you think those three categories are an accurate reflection of where democratic feelings are or do you think they are too simplistic? >> i think broadly speaking they're fairly accurate. i think that's been the case for many months now. there are obviously gradations among them and you have seen a movement towards impeachment for house democrats. nancy pelosi is trying to keep unity in her caucus which is difficult because there are a number of people who believe the mueller report provided the evidence they need to move forward with impeachment. on the other hand, there are members in vulnerable districts where they needed some people who voted for trump to win their

elections who aren't quite as forward leaning on that. so this is the challenge for her. i think obviously they're not going to get to a place where people are going to suddenly turn around and say, i don't see the evidence. i think the question for her is how quickly is she able to move? >> it's interesting to see what you think. are the impeachment groups accurate? which one is going to see the desired outcome? >> i agree with john. the logical problem is some of the democratic members have once you say on the record openly that you think the president has committed impeachable offenses. then i don't think we should impeach him.

there isn't much momentum going the other way. >> jonathan allen, david mark, thank you for joining us. coming up, a house investigation hearing tomorrow taking center stage, what's being called president trump's most overt acts of obstruction. up next, why watergate figure john dean may be the most important witness to testify. woman: (on phone) discover. hi. do you have a travel card? yep. our miles card. earn unlimited 1.5 miles and we'll match it at the end of your first year. nice! i'm thinking about a scuba diving trip. woman: ooh!

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investigate the president's controversial activity detailed in the special counsel's report. the house judiciary committee has called on former nixon white house counsel john dean all in an effort to highlight evidence discovered by the special counsel. other witnesses include two msnbc legal experts, former u.s. attorney barbara mcquade and joyce bance and john malcolm. this all comes before the house is expected to vote on contempt charges against barr and mcgahn. joining me now this morning is msnbc legal contributor katie fang. good morning. always a pleasure to learn from you. what is the strategy behind this? what are they hoping to hear from a key watergate player and other legal experts? >> you know, morgan, if there was anybody who would have a frame of mind on how impeachment

works in a white house, that would be john dean. based on his historical and institutional knowledge as the white house interfaces with congress, he's going to be able to shed a good amount of light in terms of what congress can do. i think there's a lot of confusion out in the american public in terms of what is legally and congressionally permissible in terms of what congress can pursue in an impeachment inquiry. somebody like john dean who's been there, done that can say, look, this is how it's been done. you are allowed to do it this way. i think it's important because you just mentioned our friends barb mcquaid and vance, their insight is going to be great. there is this criticism, morgan, as of late that several members of the country in terms of the american public, they haven't read that 448 page mueller report. >> it's a long report. >> for those of us that have read it, it's long. to digest it, to really

understand it, if you're going to watch a congressional inquiry where it's done in smaller bites, then maybe that's a better way for people to understand the true obstruction case that came from the mueller report. >> i want to stay on that point of obstruction and what you said about what is legally permissible because speaker pelosi, as we talked about earlier in the show, reportedly said she'd rather see the president imprisoned than impeached. walk us through the legality of that. could the president avoid being charged based on the obstruction statute of limitations? >> that's a very interesting question. i would like to think that they're not mutually exclusive. i would like to think prison and impeachment can go hand in hand, but the reality is such that because we have this now famous office of legal counsel, this olc opinion that said you cannot indict a sitting president, that's what mueller even referenced in his report as to binding his hands with a

criminal analysis of obstruction in his report, this olc thing says you can't indict a sitting president so it does beg the question does the statute of limitations get tolled? people say it should be because but for the existence of that opinion, but from a legal standpoint what is going to be stopping that prosecution? is there something that should be done? should there be a sealed indictment, morgan, that gets filed so it starts that clock -- excuse me, stops that clock from running. people are saying if trump wins in 2020 he's going to dodge that statute but i am of the camp that you can still prosecute him once he gets out of office. i don't think they're mutually exclusive. >> it's not necessarily a done deal if he wins 2020? >> exactly. >> also the question though going back to something you said earlier, katie, what are the ramifications of that.

congressman naylor argued an impeachment inquiry. how would that widen the president's inquiry. >> the impeachment inquiry that's going to move forward is going to clearly state the criminal actions or the high crimes and misdemeanors as we know is the applicable language in the constitution when it comes to impeachment. that's going to create the causes of action of obstruction of justice, perhaps campaign finance violations. i mean, all the different things that have been going on. there's a really highlighted obstruction of justice events that have happened that we've heard about in the mueller report, that we've heard about leading up to the mueller report. so i think it's a great opportunity now that we're going to have the continuing congressional investigations, the continuing litigation going on in other federal prosecutor's offices across the country. 234 case that robert mueller

says is there. >> thanks for being with us this morning. next, why some of america's truckers say the president has misled them and that they're now paying for it. stay with us. it. stay with us [ screaming ] mmm, mmm, mmm.

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now to those morning headlines. heavy downpours filled roads with water and fish. the national weather service says more than 7 inches of rain fell in that area in house. and tense moments at yesterday's capitol pride parade in washington, d.c., after mistaken reports of a shooting. seven people were hurt, all in the confusion. d.c. police say that no shots were fired and no threats were made. event organizers did cancel those evening activities. ♪ ♪ >> they're off. sir winston has won the belmont stakes. >> sir winston and the perfect finish at the belmont stakes

lead to an unusual triple crown. he won by a length after disqualification at the kentucky derby. 10 to 1 long shot captured $19.5 million. war of will, the only horse to run in all three triple crown races, finished ninth. he won the preakness three weeks ago. new today, u.s. military aircrafts are hovering in the skies near the persian gulf as the head of centcom said the threat of war may be imminent. >> reporter: we're on the deck of "the u.s.s. abraham lincoln" in the north arabian sea. this was surged into the region about a month ago after the u.s. picked up intelligence that iran could be in the final stages of preparing an attack against americans here. this aircraft carrier is massive and it's not just a show of presence that we have from the carrier itself but you can see a

number of aircraft. these are fighter attack jets behind me, f-18s and they have intelligence aircrafts as well flying daily missions to deter iran's behavior. we came on board with general frank mckenzie. he's the commander which over seas the military in this entire region. he believes this is deterring some iranian behavior but maintains the threat to the region is still very real. back to you guys. >> that's nbc's courtney cube reporting. the e.u. is setting up a new payment system to get around u.s. sanctions to salvage the iran nuclear deal. all of this while general frank mckenzie, head of centcom admits tensions are reduced because of the mere presence of the u.s. air craft carrier. >> we believe it is having an effect on the iranians. we believe that they are

recalculating. they have to take this into account as they think and about the various actions that they might take. we think this is having a very good, stabilizing effect. what we do every day is we do a top to bottom assessment of what they're doing and we think about what our posture should be so it will be contingent on that. >> joining me now is bobby gosh. good morning. thanks for being with us. >> good morning, morgan. >> the question now is is iran a flashpoint? should the world be concerned about what they might do? >> well, i think as the general said, there is a sense that both countries, iran and the u.s., came to the brink and then are trying to find a way to back away from it. both iranian leadership as well as president trump have said that they do not want a war. secretary of state pompeo recently talked about negotiations with iran without pre-conditions. so it sounds like neither side

wants this to escalate and instead wants to calm things down a little bit. >> i want to play for you something that a former cia analyst that is skeptical about the iraq war said about iran. let's take a listen. >> when we look at present day rhetoric on iran we can see a lot of parallels. there's a lot of escalation and threats, anonymous sources are popping up in different news articles. talking about the fact that iran is an imminent threat. that kind of language matters and it was used at the time as well, but what we need to look at is whether or not there's actually been an intelligence assessment on what type of imminent threat the administration is claiming and if any of that information has been declassified. >> what about that language, bobby? do you hear echos of iraq here? >> yes, i covered the iraq war and the lead up to it, and there are echos. there are two very important differences from iraq and now.

that took place just as the united states and allies looked like they were triumphant. they had beaten the taliban, they seemed unstoppable. the other was you had a president who was keen to go to war in iraq, in which president bush. neither of those two things are true with trump. trump does not want to go to war in iran. he has said so repeatedly. he knows it will be damaging to the united states and his own political prospects. the u.s. is coming together. there's not the same appetite in the country. the kinds of people who vote for donald trump, the base, those are people who send their sons to war. they don't want him to send their sons to another war in the middle east. he promised he would not do that.

he knows if he breaks that promise that would have devastating impact on his political prospects. for those reasons i think there's an important differences between what happened in 2002 and 2003 and now. >> i think it's interesting what you said about the public appetite, but i do think those are critical distinctions. the question now, bobby, is what happens next. japanese prime minister shinzo abe plans to act as a mediator to bring iran to the table with trump. what can he deliver? >> well, so now that he's one of several different people who are trying this. the iraqis are offering to mediate. companies are offering to mediate. and shinzo abe is going himself. he's carrying a message from donald trump, let's have a conversation. what can he accomplish? japan is an important trade partner. it used to be a major consumer

of iranian oil. it stopped importing oil after u.s. sanctions. you want in a situation like this a negotiator who can offer the iranians some carrots while the united states wields the big stick. japan does have the potential to do that. japan is seen as knew the trool. it doesn't have it coming from the arab world. many in the iranian garden makes it if -- that they need to end the sanctions, they need to make the deal. we don't know if that's happened. it's not a bad idea for the japanese prime minister to go there, speak and listen. >> we'll find out soon if that neutrality works. bloomberg's bobby gosh. thanks for being with us this morning. >> any time, morgan.

the white house is still taughting a booming economy but there's one group that says trump's tax bill is putting them out of business and the american economy at risk. we're talking about long haul truck drivers. i got a chance to sit down with them in jackson, georgia, as they sound the alarm that the rosie economic picture that the president is painting isn't exactly what they're seeing through the windshield and they say the american people need to pay attention. >> reporter: after working as a truck driver for 20 years, billy bogart is thinking of calling it quits. how hard are things for truckers right now? >> almost impossible. >> reporter: now he's one of thousands of truck drivers hoping to get the white house's attention through a group called black smoke matters. named from the exhaust smoke that used to come from big rigs. >> do you feel this administration is listening to you as truckers?

>> no, ma'am. >> reporter: a mix of republicans, democrats and independents. >> how many of you voted for the president in the last election? one, two, three. >> many of their complaints are unique to trucking like parking costs and the lack of training for new drivers. >> bill receipts. >> reporter: but they say some of their issues affect all-americans, like the republican led tax bill. how many of you guys, show of hands, saw your taxes increase? >> they all went up. >> this year they went up. >> reporter: all of you? most of you saw your taxes increase? the reason? something called a per diem. in the past truckers could deduct things like food and daily expenses from their taxable income. with trump bills. >> they took the per diem out. >> that made an $8,000. >> what were you paying last year? >> nothing. >> a hit that comes especially

hard after promise the made by the president. >> america first means putting american truckers first. >> reporter: you said you also believed the president would help truckers. do you think he's doing a good job now? >> no, i don't. there's nothing that he's doing to help us out there. >> mr. trump run on the platform of doing away with obama bad regulation. well, he quite well done that for i'm going to say corporate america but us blue collar america, we've got regulations that we have when obama was in office and i would like to ask him why didn't he do away with the bad regulations for us independent operators? >> reporter: a trend they say should be concerning for everyone. have you all ever thought about quitting? >> yes. >> every day. >> reporter: every day? >> we want the american dream. we want to be part of being able to strive to do better to be able to take care of our families and do a good job for the american people. >> the american dream is getting

further away. >> it really is. >> unattainable. >> reporter: whether you're at home or on the road. >> we reached out to the white house. they told nbc news that the rate cuts, higher standard deduction and enhanced child tax credit in the new tax plan actually eliminated the need for many deductions but they said it's also important to point out many truck drivers did not lose the ability to use per diems. the administration is willing to work with any truck drivers who did. >> bill de blasio blasts joe biden on the campaign trail and hear why he says the former v.p. does not support women. stay with us. with us award winning interface. award winning design. award winning engine. the volvo xc90. the most awarded luxury suv of the century.

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whew! >> parades like this one in boston are being held this weekend in various cities across the country and throughout the world for pride month. nbc now is marking the 50th anniversary of the stonewall riots by highlighting 50 rising stars and veterans of the lgbtq movement. one of those people is congresswoman shah rece dafts. the first openly gay native american woman ever elected to congress. she's also the first ever lgbtq person kansas has ever elected to congress. to learn more about the other pride 50 trail blazers go to

nbcnews.com/pride50. 2020 democrats are zeroing in on the hawkeye state this weekend. with nearly the entire field visiting iowa today, here's what the candidates have been saying on the campaign trail in this week's sound check 2020. >> i think they have no alternative but to move to an impeachment proceeding. >> it's a constitutional oath that no one is above the law and that includes the president of the united states. i believe impeachment proceedings should start now. >> i believe the president deserves to be impeached. i will also say even though i have revealed myself to be ambitious and that i am a young man running for president, that i also would think twice before offering strategic advice to nancy pelosi. >> if this court were to overrule roe v. wade, i would push to make it legislative.

>> about three out of four people in america want to see roe versus wade fully enforced as the law of the land and yet for 47 years we've played defense, right? ever since roe was announced. i would say in a democracy where about 3 out of 4 people see this the same way, then it's time to take roe versus wade, stop depending on the courts. >> the height amendment in the end says to low income women, you don't get to choose and joe biden was very comfortable with that for decades. i don't understand how he could have possibly had that position. i think if he comes out and talks about it, he's going to feel a lot of heat. >> we also bring millions more of our fellow americans into our democracy by having the same day and automatic voter registration and then we restore confidence in our elections by making sure that we have paper receipts,

making sure that we end gerrymandering, making sure we get big money out of politics. >> i think it is important we are very clearly drawing a line and running the risk of helping to re-elect who quite likely is going to go down as the worst president in history. >> we should be very thoughtful about that. again, make very clear the american people understand. we are not socialists. >> i'm calling for 0% interest on student loans. my plan also would allow employers to contribute tax free to their employee student loan debts. i get this issue. i'll be a leader on this issue so i will work for this issue. >> for profit should not be a vision for our future. for profit charter schools we should draw back in terms of correcting what needs to be corrected. >> and to put all this in context, the dnc is a week away from releasing its official list of the candidates who will make the first debate stage.

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a revealing new iowa poll on 2020 democrats shows big shifts in support. it shows joe biden maintaining his lead at 24% but joe biden a shedding a few points since march. bernie sanders is hanging on to second place but lost nine points. he's at 16%. elizabeth warren is at 15%, up by six points. and pete buttigieg reached 13 points. joining me now, is rashad richie and joe watkins, former white house aide to george h.w. push. rashad, i want to start with you. what stands out to you from this poll? >> you have to contextize.

you need 2,000 to secure the democratic nomination. the iowa caucus is 2% of what you need to win. it's early momentum state. joe biden is in a good place. back in march, he's at 27%. he's at 24%. but more impressive is the fact he's been able to increase his lead with bernie sanders. >> you see there was a three-point drop, you think that's an impressive place to be? does that concern you? >> he's eight points ahead of the second place contender, which is well outside of the margin of error. >> what are your takeaways? we see buttigieg coming up in the race. kamla there in fifth place. what's your takeaway? >> kamla harris has been steady.

she's someone to continue to watch. pete buttigieg's rise is impressive. he is iowa voters. a 13-point increase is very impressive. joe biden is in very, very good shape right now. he's got an impressive lead. he is maintaining that lead over bernie sanders and elizabeth warren. he's the guy to watch. >> while most democrat iic candidates have spent a lot of time in iowa. pi biden was there once. >> iowa can turn on you. you need to spend time with people in iowa. you know the caucuses are not like a traditional vote. these individuals have to really vote with their feet, not just with their hands. they have to stand in place for an hour or two hours to make this work.

and the data is not comparable. you'll be able to caucus via phone and online. i would not be sure about the polling data. you have a new dynamic in the game and it's caucuses by way of phone and online. >> there's a new element to this ball game this time. joe, there was a poll out of texas this past week that had joe biden beating president trump by four points in a match-up there. president trump came ahead of the democrats. but how significant is that? >> it's very significant. this influences even the people in iowa, looking to see which candidate is most viable than trump. and joe biden comes out ahead. the texas poll underscores that. it's good news for biden again.

and it helps biden in iowa and new hampshire. >> we look at the numbers. i'm most fascinated by those who are actucatching up. what do you mike of warren and buttigieg catching up to bernie sanders? >> they are catching up to bernie sanders because of messaging. in order to win the kentucky caucuses, you have to be strategic of targeting methodology. his opponents were able to do what they were able to do or not do. bernie sanders barely loss with hillary clinton when he was head-to-head with her running for president in the democratic prima primary. >> what do you mean by that? what are they getting right in the messaging? >> i think they're getting the people right. the iowa caucuses, you have a select group of people. people come out, stand around and participate as a process.

it's a bunch of politicos who are committed to the process of the caucus. it's not you going into a ballot, making a vote and going back to work or back home. it's more complicated. there's a select individual who will actually go through the process. you have to know who the person is and you have to target them directly. >> i want to switch gears. there's another change in beto o'rour o'rourke's numbers. down from 5% in march to 2% today. he was once the golden boy. everyone thought he was going to surj serge we've seen pete buttigieg serge. >> he hasn't been able to create the same magic in iowa as he does in texas. spending time in iowa doesn't translate to bigger numbers. he is having trouble getting trap traction. the iowa cause cusses, are the first out of the gate. it's important to place high in

those if you want to continue the momentum. this is not good news for beto. >> you say we expected to see something different, what do you think happened? >> well -- me? >> yes. >> i think people care about the substance of your message, not just the style. this is not a state-wide election against ted cruz. this is a crowded, democratic primary with 20 other democrats. you have to have a message that resonates. and you can't be all things to all people. >> that's what we're looking for in a national candidate. thank you so much, gentlemen, for waking up and being here with us this morning. next up, new legal questions after the security guard at the parkland massacre is charged with a crime. but for what? you need for your home at a great price, the way it works best for you,

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that wraps up this hour. let's get to alex witt. good morning. >> i wish people could have listened to our conversation during the commercial break. >> have a good one. thank you so much, morgan. good morning to all of you, from msnbc headquarters in new york. welcome, everyone, to "weekends with alex witt." changing the landscape. who is coming out ahead and who is slipping fast, as a new 2020