privilege if the white house has any hope of preventing hicks from speaking, shall we say, speaking her truth. and that does it for me. we'll have coverage of that and a lot more tomorrow at 6:00 p.m. eastern. but right now it's "hardball" with chris matthews. the day he doubles down. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews up in new york back from our special town hall event in dayton, ohio, the deciders. we learned a lot about how democrats and republicans view president trump. it was a fascinating evening last night. we'll have more on that coming up later in the hour. first tonight, president donald trump is set to take the stage in the next hour in orlando. there's that crowd, where he'll formally launch his bid for reelection in 2020. hyping the event this morning, trump compared himself to a rock star, tweeting, "look what is

going on in orlando florida, right now. people have never seen anything like it unless you play a guitar. going to be wild." well, there is no question that trump is in a uniquely different position today than he was four years ago when he made it -- there it, his descent down that elevator at trump tower. as "the new york times" puts it today in the paper, four years ago trump was seen as a sideshow. now he is the show. he has firmly seized control of his party in a way that was almost unimaginable in 2016. that is for sure. the republican party is the trump party. yet despite the power of incumbency, "the new york times" notes trump is the only president in the history of polling who has never once, not for a single day earned the support of a majority of americans surveyed. in his announcement tonight, trump is hitting the same themes that accompanied his 2016 campaign. early today, he threatened to deport millions of immigrants who had entered the country illegally in a major crackdown starting next week. trump may be trying to distract, of course, from the recent leak

of internal campaign polling data from march, which showed his underperforming in a dozen states against former vice president joe biden. the details from that poll, which were obtained by nbc news showed trump losing by double-digits in michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, and florida, where trump is tonight. the trump campaign says that polling data is old, but a new quinnipiac poll just out today shows biden leading trump in florida by nine points. i'm joined right now by danielle moodie-mills, xm sirius hose. jonathan swan for ax expos, and charlie psychs is editor in sheaf of the bulwark. that bulwark always scares me. let's start with jonathan. first question, but everybody gets the same question. how does trump look like as a reelection candidate? big question. let's give you a big answer. how's it look? >> he looks bad right now. but it's early, and at this

point in the last cycle, we were still fantasizing by jeb bush, marco rubio and walker. he looks bad. internal polls have biden taking a lot of the voters who delivered trump the presidency in 2016 all throughout the rust belt. trump can deny those figures, but that's the truth. they're internal figures. but i think we're very, very foolish to make grand proclamations at this stage. >> but that's why you're here. i want a proclamation! how does it look? here is the question. >> how is this? [ overlapping dialog ] . >> i'll do this for you now, and it will be played on loop for the next 18 months, and donald trump will probably tweet about it. >> i'm going to go with somebody who may be offering an opinion tonight. that's danielle. 50 bucks, not going to bet any money on television. trump or the field, somebody beats him. how does it look? >> i think that trump gets beat.

i mean, the polls look ridiculous. he has the fact that he has never claimed the majority of americans' support in the two and a half years he has been president is shocking. >> he won without it. >> let's be clear how he won. he had a friend in russia that helped him out. >> really? you think russia -- >> i do. i think that russia gave him all the help he wanted and i think he asked for it the other night with george stephanopoulos and said hey, i'm open for business. >> tim, let me ask about the general outlook for trump healthcheck has the double-digit losses, deficiencies in states we know he needs, but he did go to florida, a state we know he needs. he has to start with florida, work to north carolina and get some of the industrial states to win. >> i don't think that the math is complex. if he doesn't hold wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania, he's not going to win again. i think even if he gets florida. those were the states that put him over the top the last time. he was over the top in those

races on a razor's edge. but i agree with jonathan. it's too early. i think even though it's too early to predict whether or not he is going to win, it's not too early to identify what he needs to talk about and what he is going to have difficulty talking about. the economy and health care. and the health care keeps polling strongly with voters. you know from talking to voters in ohio. >> 2018. it had a lot to do with '18. >> it had a lot to do with '18. on the economy, some of the numbers are starting to look cloudy there. i think the economy, if you have rae session, that's going to be a big headwind for trump to struggle against. >> let me go to charlie sykes on this. do you think the democrats have learned their lesson? one of the lessons we learned last night, it didn't take much effort, people don't like being overlooked. there are people living in aaa, aa baseball towns, middle sized towns 100,000. they felt that hillary -- well, they're right. hillary didn't come there. it's as basic as basic politics. show up and ask for the vote. do you think the democrats have learned the lesson, if they're

going to beat trump, first thing go to erie, pennsylvania a couple of times, dayton a couple of times and show you're respectful of those voters? do they know that yet? >> and listen to what they are actually saying. well, look, and i think that donald trump is in trouble. there is no question about it. but i think his reelection chances are better than they look right now. not just because it's early, but here is somebody. remember how underwater he was in 2016. he knows he doesn't have to win the election. he has to have the democrats lose the election. and they are giving him oppo research every single day. i think the health care issue ought to be a slam-dunk for the democrats, but there are polls out now showing that really nobody understands what do democrats mean when they say medicare fraud. you get to keep your private insurance. will there be an option -- >> what's the oppo, you think? you've entranced me. somebody said fascinated with jeb bush. nobody has ever been fascinated with jeb bush.

i'm sorry. you're really reaching with that message. nobody has ever been fascinated with jeb bush. but let me ask you. this do you think you got stuff on biden? bernie is sort of his own open book. he is an old line socialist. if you don't like, that you can always yell that at him. but i wonder if you can go after buttigieg. he is a young guy, he didn't have a record. he is openly gay. he is married. he puts it all on the table. what would be the negative on a guy like that? i don't get it. what's the oppo? >> i don't know what they've got -- sorry, is that for charlie? >> charlie first, then you. >> well, look, we watch these guys over the last two years. they will come up with something on each and every one of these candidates. this is one of the benefits of having an alternative reality, an incredible echo machine out there to be able to do that. you may have this on two tracks. you may have, you know, the trump campaign saying we're not going go after pete buttigieg's personal life, and then a

massive below the screen campaign among evangelical christians to smear him. and so look, this is going to be ugly. the democrats need to understand it's going to be ugly. they have to understand what the trump campaign is going to be about. it's going to hillaryize whoever is the nomination. hillary did not lose this cam -- did not lose the election just because of the russians. she lost because she didn't ask for the votes, and in fact, she made herself or she was perceived by these voters to be disconnected and toxic. and that will be the model of the trump campaign whatever the democrats put up. >> charlie, she also suffers from reality. if you've been in public life for 30 or 40 years, you've got 30, 40 years of target. and hillary had that going way back to when she was first lady. >> she also was in pennsylvania. we said earlier, these states, she was in pennsylvania. she may not have spent enough time in wisconsin and michigan, but they spent a lot of time in pennsylvania. >> campaign in pennsylvania for trump said it was like about 7-2 ratio for trump showing up.

danielle, i want to ask you about the slurs. you know, we can argue whether pocahantas is a slur or not. it was a shot. i don't think pocahantas was a bad person historically. i don't think it's anybody negative. but i want to know, it didn't work because here comes -- he did his best shot at her, his favorite nickname, obviously, and here she is coming on like gangbusters. >> yeah, because she has policies and she literally has a plan for everything. i think where the democrats are going to win is with their policies, with their messaging. just imagine donald trump on the debate stage with somebody, if it's a warren, if it's a harris, if it's a biden, actually talking about policy and him up there throwing slurs and slowing, you know, character assassinations. that's not what the american people want. his base wants that at their rallies, but the american people in general don't want that. and his poll numbers show that, regardless of whether or not he is trying to gas light everybody. >> i agree with you. jonathan, when somebody shakes off his worse punch, you know, he made that native american

reference to elizabeth warren, doesn't that scare him? what do you think about that? he hasn't figured out buttigieg. he hasn't figured out kamala. i don't think he thinks he has to figure out sanders. he is pretty much an open book. but i don't think he has figured out elizabeth warren either. warren is tough, tough cookie. she is a tough cookie. >> she is. but again, like she has surged within the democratic primary electorate. i don't think you know that she's shaken off trump's punch with the general electorate. so and we have such short-term memory. we forget that when hillary clinton finished her term as secretary of state, the nation loved her. she was out of politics, they all loved her. >> we all know why. she got out of business for a while. >> that's fine, chris. but just remember how short a time it took for the machine to get going and to home in on her. i'm sorry. we've seen that image that your guests talked about of a candidate talking about policy

on a debate stage. that was hillary clinton. she did that. i don't know that this is some new paradigm. >> that was the problem that hillary clinton, she was above reproach, and she thought that she was going to be above it. so she wasn't going to try and fight back. and that was the problem. >> i think i finally found the right person to ask that question. okay, when he did that godzilla number, what would you have done? >> turned around and what are you doing? every woman in america, every woman in america, i'm telling you, if she had turned around and been like what? i'm actually speaking. every woman in america would have applauded at that moment. she wrote it in her book that that was one of her biggest mistakes, that she did not confront him and say what are you doing. he was stalking her on the stage. >> i knew you were right. thank you. when confronted with reports about those internal polling numbers from his own campaign, his own campaign, trump first denied their existence to abc news. >> we've all seen these reports that were 15 out of 17 states he

spent two million on a poll and you're behind in 15 out of 17 states. >> nobody showed you those polls because those polls don't exist, george. those polls don't exist. but i just had a meeting with somebody that's a pollster, and i'm winning everywhere. >> tim, you pointed out in that picture that george stephanopoulos has his seat belt on. >> good observant draft. >> so mike dukakis. anyway, despite trump's insistence that the polls don't exist, trump's campaign cut ties, in other words, fired some of the pollsters after the data was leaked. tim, these a riot. talk about blaming the messenger. what to do with bad poll numbers? fire the pollster. >> this is classic trump. jonathan had a scoop tonight that the white house had known for a month that they had problems with shanahan, and trump said he only found out recently. trump said he believe tariffs affect consumers. he believes the mueller report exonerated him. and now he is saying his own poll numbers aren't what they say they are. the trick to trump is he creates

alternative realities. >> yep. >> and his strength is he is happy to exist in those. >> jonathan, i tell you, when you broke the story about shanahan, the acting, acting, acting but never real secretary of defense and his marital history and all that stuff, trump says i wanted to let him have more time with his family, which is the code for i fired the guy. everybody knows that code. you've been fired. what's the reality there? >> he wasn't fired. >> then why did the president to say to spend more time with his family? >> well, i can't get to that, but honestly, trump was prepared to support him if he wanted to. shanahan went to the oval office today. even as early as this morning, early this morning, some senior white house officials still thought he was committed to going through with it. >> yeah. >> and they had a conversation in the oval, and then patrick shanahan said to president trump that it just wasn't going to work out with his family. >> did the president ask him to stick it out? >> the president said if you want to stay, he will support you. >> if you want to stay, i'll support you is not an endorsement. >> he did not ask him to step

down in a way that he has with others. >> he didn't ask him to stay either. >> the thing that's most unbelievable to me is president telling reporters that he only found out about this yesterday. i know for a fact that senior white house officials, have known about this for more than a month, the divorce allegations. so i find it very hard to believe that the president only found it about this yesterday. >> okay. well, anyway, in his interview with abc news, the president highlighted three themes to win over undecided voters next year. here he goes. >> what's your pitch to the swing voter on the fence? >> safety, security, great economy. >> but new reporting shows that trump's actions could undercut the strength of those messages. on safety, escalating tensions with iran have prompted an additional deployment of another thousand troops over to the middle east. not exactly peaceful move. and it relates to security. we're learning to officials dealing with the russian cyber threat reportedly felt the need to withhold information on that from the president. the commander in chief.

according to "the new york times," the pentagon and intelligence officials describe broad hesitation to go into detail with mr. trump about operations against russia for concern over his reaction. and the possibility that he might counter manned it or discuss it with foreign officials. charlie, he's commander in chief. i'm just reading this book on roosevelt. he insisted on being commander in chief, not taking orders from the joint chiefs or the defense secretary, but being in charge of our military operation. now we find out that our cyber war is being conducted under the table and out of sight of the president. >> that is an extraordinary -- that was an extraordinary buried lead in that particular story, the fact that they don't tell the president about this because he might countermand it or leak it. there are a lot of vulnerabilities. and tim mentioned before what happens if the economy goes down. but to go through his themes, you know, of safety, security and the economy, the flipside of all of that is the democrats are

threats to all of that. they are weak. they are for open borders. they won't protect you and they're going to trash the economy through socialism. you're going to see that two-track campaign that trump is going to do. even though he's got the vulnerabilities, you know, i know that everybody is talking about all the policies and the plans that elizabeth warren has. one of the things trump i think understands intuitively is that these elections are decided by the big, bold colors, not the details. and he's going to try to shape this with these big, broad themed figuring that the swing voters aren't going to sweat the details. >> when you're a kid in high school and you have fistfights at recess, you have braces, for example, like i did, your other guy punches you right in the teeth all the time buzz because he knows you'll be a hamburger at the end of the fight. trump knows that. he goes for the bad eye, the weakness, the physical embarrassment, whatever it is. okay, open borders, late-term on abortion rights, late-term, which is really troubling to a lot of people, marley, and

socialism. one of the opponent is joe biden, or it's buttigieg or somebody that is known known to be on the hard left. what does he do then? charlie? >> he'll paint whoever it is, in those colors. every single person has a vulnerability. and you're absolutely right. one of the things that donald trump has mastered is to find that vulnerability. what is the cartoon image that he can win on that individual. and, you know, until you're actually tested in a general election, who knows. we've made a career out of underestimating donald trump. >> i agree. >> and so, you know, the one thing that he had is he does have that bully instinct. what is the vulnerability, what is the weak spot. how can i hammer away at this. and the fact that he is utterly without shame and utterly without scruple gives him an advantage in american politics today, unfortunately. >> danielle, i grew up knowing

how bullies work there was one frightening bully like mr. t, but the real guy was sent to prison his whole life. nobody wanted to fight sonny list. knocked him out, never fight again. who has the knockout punch to take down the bully? >> i think a couple of them do. i think that biden can knock him out. i think warren can knock him out. i think kamala can put him on his behind. i think there are several people that can. the reality is we have to paint donald trump as donald trump has painted himself. he is erratic, he is unstable, and he is unreliable, right? and he is a threat to america's national security. that's how the democrats need to paint him. and if they do, they win. >> you ushould run for parliament. you're very strong, and i like strong, because i think it's that kind of very self-confident aggressive ray proaapproach to . thank you, danielle moodie-mills, thank you tim o'brien, jonathan swan and charlie sykes. coming up, democrats are

still a long way away. there are over 230 democrats in the house. now we're up to 66. about one in four, one in five. it's not enough. who is going to win, paechimpeat or the calendar? amy klobuchar. a landmark in the 20 tent campaign, sort of like the all-star game. the candidates going into it with a big moment? i know who. she is right there on the right. and our very revealing discussion last night in dayton, ohio with the deciders. >> that dude lies. he lies. the fec chair just had to call him out. >> do you think trump looks out for you? >> absolutely. >> he cares about you? >> yeah. >> thank you. >> i think he is honest. >> one of the takeaways last night. republicans know the president is not a good guy, but they know support him anyway. yikts when asked who thinks he

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welcome back to "hardball." as president trump officially launches his 2020 campaign tonight, calls the start of the impeachment inquiry into the president grew a bit louder today. katie port is the latest lawmaker to come out in support of an impeachment inquiry. porter narrowly flipped her district in this year's midterm election, last year's, argued the president's stonewalling of congressional investigations have brought the country to a crisis. that was her phrase. porter is now the 67th member of the u.s. house of representatives who called for impeachment. 66 democrats and one republican. but porter is only the second democrat from a republican-leaning democrat to do so along with new jersey's tom malinoski.

last year amy klobuchar said she would support impeachment beginning now and the house was on the right track with investigation. klobuchar released her 100-day plan today laying out a number of actions she plans to take if she wins the white house. we have more on that coming up. democratic senator and candidate for president joins me now. >> thanks. >> you're always smile when you come on this show and i appreciate that. >> well, you're fun to listen to. >> i think the calendar is moving. the older i get, the faster the calendar moves, i got to tell you. all of the sudden it's going to be july, it's going to be august. do you think there is enough time to begin an impeachment unless we start fairly soon? >> the house is doing its investigation, chris. >> yeah. >> as you point out on your show, they're going to hear from critical witness this week. i know they're still pushing to get mueller. i personally think they should subpoena robert mueller to testify. but i can tell you one thing we can't wait on, and that is protecting our election, 500 some days from now from foreign

powers or from others that might try to hack in. we know now that they're investigating two counties in florida, north carolina, and yet the republicans are stonewalling the secure election act, which simply would require backup paper ballots in the 14 states that either don't have them or have partial. and there is just no excuse for this if you believe in democracy, whether you're a democrat or a republican. >> okay. is it too rough a question, but i'll put to it you anyway, senator. do you think the president has abused his office, the powers of the presidency? has he abused them? >> i think he has, yes. >> you think he has committed impeachable crimes? >> have i made this very clear that i believe they should start impeachment proceedings. >> okay. >> because of the fact that we've got those ten instances of obstruction of justice which form a pattern. but we also had just last week when he actually called on foreign agents, he basically said yeah, if they give me dirt, i'll take it. then he tries to dial it back. to me that was just one more

message, just like he did during the campaign. but the problem with all, this chris, if we just dwell on this, people aren't going to hear what i think is the alternative future for our country. and that is an america that is based on our values that brings us forward that is focused on what i think people want to hear about, which is an optimistic economic agenda where they can be part of this country and the prosperity, because he has made so many promises, as you guys just pointed out. he has promised this economy and so many people aren't a part of it. he has promised security, and at this very moment, we are a month away from iran has now said they're going get closer to nuclear weapon. when this guy came into power, he wasn't there. >> something just broke. >> okay, what. >> i've just got to ask you, just broke in the news. the president again refused to apologize when given the opportunity late today in the role he played in lobbying for the execution, the capital punishment of those youngsters, those teenagers who were accused in the central park five. in 1989, trump took out a

full-page ad in four newspapers calling for the execution, ending the lives of those teenagers, four black and one hispanic, accused of raping and beating a jogger in central park. the teenagers were convicted but later exonerated by dna evidence, actual innocence there, and another man's confession. they agreed to a $41 million settlement with new york city in 2014, and the story is back in the news because of netflix. let's take a look here. >> why do you bring that question up now? you have people on both sides of that. they admitted their guilt. if you look at linda fairstein, they think the city should have never settled that case. we'll live it at that. >> what do you think of that, the president against the established dna, evidence of actual innocence, not an argument that it was badly prosecuted, but actual innocence, and he still sticks to saying they should be executed? >> well, as a former prosecutor, i cannot tell you how offensive

it is. our job is to do justice, to be ministers of justice, to do our job without fear or favor. and the same should be said as a president of the united states. there was clear evidence here. they have been exonerated. and now he comes out and says this. i can't even -- i just think he said 10,000 lies, and it's one of the reasons i have come out with what you can do in your first 100 days. you just can't wait. yes, we can introduce the bills, and i'm going to do it. immigration reform. i think maybe we can get that done by the end of the year. there is immediate things we can do to stop this assault on people's health care, to make sure that we get the international climate change agreement signed back into that on day one. and i literally have come up with 100 things we can do within those first 100 days, because there is an urgency right now so this election that goes way beyond any other election we've seen. >> eight days from now. you'll have your first chance to reach a national audience. not just on msnbc, but nbc as

well as telemundo. a lot of people have never seen you before. they're going to get a chance eight days from now. you're going to be standing out there -- we have the positions tonight. you're going to be standing between beto o'rourke and tulsi gabbard of hawaii. how are you going to get your -- you only get a couple of minutes to start this discussion. what are you going to lead with? come on, tell us. >> well, i want to focus -- i'm not going to tell you and be the pundit to my debate and give everything away, oh, no. but i think it's important that every candidate up there makes it clear what their vision is, what they want to get done, that we talk about the issues that matter to people, and that there is going to be some disagreements, but i think there is going to be a lot more that unify people. and the number one thing is we have to win. we have to beat donald trump. and i'll be making my case for i am that person. i'm from the heartland. i'm someone that's won every red congressional district in my state, statewide. >> well you get it.

thank you so much. >> thank you. >> senator klobuchar of minnesota. up next, steve kornacki takes us over to the big board as we count down. whose got the momentum? that's all of the sudden the big question, before the all-star game, who is doing well, who has the momentum as a candidate. where will everybody be standing on the stage what will it physically look like? you have to go with a the person to your right, to your left. you're watching "hardball." my experience with usaa has been excellent. they really appreciate the military family and it really shows. with all that usaa offers why go with anybody else? we know their rates are good, we know that they're always going to take care of us. it was an instant savings and i should have changed a long time ago. it was funny because when we would call another insurance company, hey would say "oh we can't beat usaa" we're the webber family. we're the tenney's we're the hayles, and we're usaa members for life. ♪ get your usaa auto insurance quote today. ♪

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rand paul shouldn't even be on this stage. he is number 11. he's got 1% in the polls. and how he got up here, there is far too many people i'm at 42 and you're at 3. so far i'm doing better. >> it doesn't matter. >> so far i'm doing better. you started off here, jeb. you're moving over further and further. pretty soon you're going to be off the end. >> i was center stage in every debate. you know the way guys kept calling off the ends, you know, they kept falling off. i said jeb, you're not going to be here much longer. you're fret far down there. >> welcome back to "hardball" that was then candidate donald trump relishing his advantage of being center stage during the primary debates. well, today we found out exactly where each democratic candidate will stand in the debate next week. msnbc national political correspondent stve kornacki is here with more. steve? >> yeah, chris we can take you through it. here is the lineup. first night next week, wednesday night. you see they align the candidates here, the ten on

stage. they basically did the order, based on the polling, working from the outside in. so tenth among this group, ninth, eighth, seventh, and so forth. and it works its way all the way to the middle. that's where elizabeth warren, she is the highest polling candidate in this first group. that's where she is going to be. to one side of her, cory booker. to the other side beto o'rourke. that's sort of the middle of the stage there and that's wednesday night. thursday night, the second night, that is when the -- oh, and turn the marker off here that is when the bigger names in terms of polling are all on stage together. buttigieg, biden, sanders, harris. all four of them, four of the top five right now by polling all right there going to be in the middle of the stage. there is the former vice president. he has bernie sanders on one side, pete buttigieg on the other. so that's the lineup there, chris, for each night next week. >> what do you make about that second night? i think about all the b's there, biden, bernie and buttigieg and then harris. it seems to me that somebody is going the take on somebody very close to them physically.

it's going to be fascinating. >> and so much of the energy on stage is going to be sort of directed from the outside toward the middle. because i think these other candidates are all going to be trying to get their moment in the limelight. we were looking back at past debate moments. here is one you may remember. hillary clinton back in 2008, remember the driver's license question that tripped her up? remember who instigated that moment? it was chris dodd, one of the candidates who was kind of on the periphery, wasn't really registering, but he was on stage and had the chance, and in that moment he really made things uncomfortable for hillary clinton. that's one of the question advice for some of these other candidates on the outside here. do they pursue something like that. >> yeah, i thought that was sort of a doubling up on her an basketball, like two-manning her. i thought that was interesting. taken by the fact that biden who is technically still running, and he still wanted to win the presidency. he backed up obama against hillary. >> and ended up getting the vp slot. >> i guess he get paid for that. let's talk about the president, what he is up to. because, you know, we've looked

at all these numbers today, and i remain skeptical that this guy is as easy to beat as the numbers show. your thoughts looking at the newest numbers. >> yeah, take you through. this is his average approval rating. take every poll and it clocks in at 43.9%. you would normally look at that president in that territory and say that president is going to be in trouble next year for reelection. the interesting thing about trump is he's pretty much lived in that range his entire presidency. his high point as president, his high watermark, this is his honeymoon. he hit 46% in, about two weeks in early 2017. his low watermark, 37%. he has existed almost entirely within that range. the thing to keep in mind, chris, is this is also the range that donald trump lived in during the 2016 presidential campaign. if he had taken polls throughout the fall of 2016, on a bad day he was down here, on a really good day he was getting close to this territory. usually he was somewhere in between. and when you got to election

day, 2016, you had exit polls showing that folks had all sorts of negative opinions about donald trump. off the charts negative in some cases. and yet the negatives for his opponent in the end were just high enough. his favorable rating was just high enough. he was able to stitch together that path. it's a completely open question to me if he can pull that off again in 2020. >> what do you think of the accuracy? i keep thinking well spoken with pollsters call up a person who is a bit conservative, who may not have recall the education as the person who is calling them has and where are you on this election? and the person who gets the call goes i'm not going to tell you, wiseguy. you're a big shot. you probably went to an ivy league school. i like trump, but i'm not going to tell you. is that going on, or is there any way to find that in the polling and fix for it? >> to the extent you're saying, that is tough to find for. but i think a lot of people have suspicions. the other thing it's a simple question of people have conflicting views of trump. you saw that in the exit polls. people who did not think he was

qualified to be president. they said that in the exit poll. i don't think trump is qualified. some of them still voted for him. >> like last night they said they wouldn't say he doesn't lie. they would all say he is crass. they don't think their kids should behave like him. and then they're not going to move. i think your poll shows that. they're hard as a rock, in the low 40s but still rock. steve, you're the best. nobody's got anybody like you, no one. >> thanks. >> except we do. up next, what were some telephone big takeaways from last night's deciders town hall in dayton, ohio. just last night some voters view trump's honesty and accomplishments, as i said, could surprise you. the trumpees admit the worst about him. you're watching "hardball." chin. i've always been excited for what's next.

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group of voters like that were thinking about. with the election 16 months away now, here's what they had to say about trump. >> i definitely do not, and i feel that he actually ran on promoting racism. and anybody who flipped for him is somebody who supports people who don't support people of color. >> you think trump looks out for you? >> absolutely. >> he cares about you? >> yeah. >> thank you. >> i think he is honest. i think he is true. >> we have people who stand up for institutions, stand up for america, make the promises to uphold and defend the constitution. and donald trump has not ever been that person. >> it's hard to try to find where you fit when everyone wants to be in a category. >> every politician calls other politicians names. we have them on hot mic for 30 years. they all do that. this guy at least does it up front. >> well, there were also some lively exchanges between supporters and critics of the commander in chief.

let's take a look at that. >> i mean, what's wrong with putting america first because we have all these old trade agreements that are like nafta that took a lot of jobs. >> do you think he honors the constitution? >> what's that again? >> does he honor the constitution? >> i believe he honors the constitution. >> everybody else agree? >> he took an oath. he took an oath to honor the constitution. >> thank you, sir. let me go to another person here. back here. do you want to respond to what he just said? >> i most certainly do. he does not honor the constitution. and i can tell you a couple of places where he doesn't. number one, article i, section 9, the emoluments clause. let's go for that. >> well, i asked the voters in dayton, republicans and democrats how many of them think trump lies. their response spoke volumes. that's coming up next. oh! oh!

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decrease alcohol use. use caution driving or operating machinery. tell your doctor if you've had mental health problems. the most common side effect is nausea. quit smoking slow turkey. talk to your doctor about chantix. welcome back to "hardball." last night during our deciders town hall in dayton, ohio, an area that voted twice for obama and then for trump last time, i asked the democrats and republicans what they thought of the president's, here's the word, truthfulness. listen to what they said, or rather didn't say. >> okay, how many people here don't think trump lies? >> say that again? >> how many people here don't think trump lies? i thought it was interesting

silence. >> that was absolute crickets. no one in the room of mixed republican and democrat, not a single clap or noise of any kind said they don't think he lies. i'm now joined with michelle goldberg and noah rothman. thank you, both. i mean, you write for magazines and "new york times" where you have to write the truth. that's the deal. the facts have to be -- but this crowd, i'm not talking about the democrat people, the passionate progressives. i'm talking about people that stood up and stood up for trump, but did not defend his word. they don't defend his word. >> right. i think the division in this country is not between people who think trump lies and people who don't. it's between people who care that trump lies and people who don't. >> why don't the people who are supportive of him think it's important to tell the truth? >> because they think he is getting away with it. they think when he lies, he is lying on behalf of their interests. >> you're so smart because one of the guys said does it matter that he lies? as long as mitch mcconnell was

the judge. >> right. i also think that they get a perverse -- not all of them, but i think there are some conservatives who get a perverse sort of glee at watching the rest of us get so apoplectic as he lies continuously and shamelessly and there is nothing we can do about it. i think they sort of like the fact that it torments the half of the country that can't bear it. >> what happens when he says the polls aren't really true, the ones that leaked weren't really the polls and then fires his pollsters this week? >> yeah, that was a very strange moment. >> threatens to fire sean spicer for saying the crowd wasn't as big as he wanted it to be. >> there is a reason why you would release internal polls that show you behind. it has instrumental, you can get your voters energized. you don't fire the guys who do it because they're doing a service for you. it suggests that he doesn't really understand campaigning in a way he really should. >> pollers operator differently. >> this is probably more in line with his personality. >> one of the people we spoke to

last night, an independent, had this warning to the democrats running for president. >> the reason trump is president in my opinion is because of his competition. hillary was just worse. y'all were talking about trump. the fact of the matter he is an egotistical self-centered human being that happened to have a worse competitor. i want some good options. i want some good options and i haven't really seen them. >> i thought the rest of his comment is he is angry because he feels that people are stealing from him. >> he said that a u.s. senator there, sherrod brown, tell your buddies and you to stop stealing from me. >> to be honest, if what you really want is if you really kind of resent having to pay taxes and pay the taxes that support all the social programs that people in polls also say they want, it's true that sort of neither party is offering you anything. i think that man said that he was thinking about voting libertarian. >> but he said he was in a boot.

this i never heard of. it may be hyperbole. he said he was in the booth for 30 minutes. i was kidding because i know when i'm voting, you got to move the crowd along a little bit. he said i took 30 minutes to decide i hated hillary more than trump. >> i think he knows that voting for trump was a morally compromised -- a morally compromised act. and also, once you do something like that, something that you do know is wrong you then have to justify it retroactively. >> look, i think it's a preview of what's coming. i think trump doesn't want to be the issue in 2020. he wants the democrat candidate to be the ultimate issue. he'll go after them on looks, on ideolo ideology, on baggage. he will find something to make that person less unlikable than he is. >> it would be extremely smart to do that, and that's why i'm not banking on that. the referendum is to make the election on him. he wrested it from the hands of republicans to say i want to talk about the border. and as for that guy who is a

swing voter, he really is the quintessential swing voter. swing voters don't vote on ideological reasons. americans don't love to have their income taken from them in the form of taxes. democrat voters like that. swing voters vote on the guy they saw most recently. >> the guy they saw most recently? >> macroeconomic issues, sent measurementality. >> did they show up and show respect for you. president trump is said to make the economy a central part of his 2020 reelection campaign. last night i asked the audience if the republicans' $1.5 trillion tax cut which trump said would be rocket fuel for the economy actually helped them personally or they saw anything in their life that reflected it. let's take a look at what they said. >> there was a tax bill passed last year. i want to know, put your hands up if you come up with any discernible improvement in the situation because of the tax cut. put your hand up.

wow. that's about 10 people in the room here at the most. >> what it is that stops people -- well, we know that the unemployment rate dropped about two points in that county since trump came in. i don't know if he had anything to do with it, but the economy has helped. we know you make an extra buck an hour there, about 28 bucks as opposed to 27 bucks an hour. some modest improvement in people's salaries, very modest, 4%. but only 10 people said improvement in their lives. >> well, from the tax cut, right. and i think you can't necessarily connect lowered unemployment rate to the tax cut. >> you think they're just talking about the refund they got? >> i think people see they got very little. then they read about the stock buybacks, they read about the massive amounts that people in donald trump's tax bracket got. and also i think there is a lot of research -- >> you said stocks idealogicall. >> so they might not know what stock buybacks are, but they definitely understand that wall street made out much better than they did. i also think there is a lot of

research now that people's perceptions of the economy is being somewhat decoupled or is increasingly tied to their partisan affiliations. >> agreed. >> the economy there are so many different signals, you read them depending where your loyalties are. >> my prediction, trump will spend $1 million, 2 if he's got it to sell america on the better economy and what he did. you can do that with money. i went through morning in america. reagan had a 7-plus unemployment and sold the country on the fact we are gangbusters. so it can be done with advertising. thank you so much, michelle, thank you so much, noah rothman. up next, i sat down with steve colbert on "the tonight show." they just taped. your watching "hardball." my experience with usaa

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i'm going to be on "the late show" tonight with stephen colbert, and here is a bit of our discussion on trump and his 2020 opponents. >> if trump launched his reelection campaign today. okay, it's happening as we speak. >> disney world. >> going on down there. >> i'm worried. i think it's going to be a real close one next november. i think two or three of the democrats i can see beating him. others may beat him. i think biden could beat him. i think warren could beat him. i think buttigieg is coming on strong. i think right now it's like

baskin robins. you go in, there is 31 flavors. i tried beto last week. i think i'll try buttigieg. it's a tasting thing. >> that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. tonight on "all in" -- >> i do feel badly for paul manafort, that i can tell you. >> the department of justice intervenes on behalf of donald trump's jailed former campaign manager as calls for impeachment grow. plus, the president advertises mass deportations as he relaunches a campaign of cruelty. >> when people come into our country and they come in illegally, they have to go out. then, the shocking resignation of the acting defense secretary as the white house toys with war. >> we have a lot of things going on with iran. and what today's latest bad numbers for the president actually mean 17