that away from me. >> that's all for this edition of "dateline ". i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. ♪ good morning i'm alison morris in new york at msnbc world headquarters. it's 6:00 in the east, 3 out west. here's what's happening. chipping away, what a new poll shows about the top two democratic contenders as many hopefuls gear up for a day of gun control rallies. portland on edge as groups from the far right left face off. the last days of jeffrey epstein, fascinating new look what went on when the multimillionaire found himself behind bars. the nud vi owe of dale earnhardt jr. escaping a burning plane with his family. ♪ happening today, democratic presidential hopefuls on the

campaign trail with candidates making their pitch in two crucial states new hampshire and south carolina. also happening in just a few hours, day two of gun control rallies as act viss demand action from congress and the president. yesterday demonstrators rallied in cities across the country. meanwhile, the 2020 democrats took on gun violence. >> what do we teach our children? we can't protect you. so we're going to send you to school and teach you drills about how to hide and shelter in place. >> it truly feels like this time is different. we have to make sure it really turns out to be different, and that means ensuring there's a political penalty for anybody who blocks common sense gun reform demanded by a vast majority of the american people. >> though i was talking about the president's racism repeatedly, though i was talking about this attack on hispanics and immigrants, i needed to sound the alarm much more loudly than i did. i will not make that mistake again. >> and senators elizabeth warren and bernie sanders spoke to young black voters in atlanta about the impact of gun violence

on communities of color. >> if people are looking to their future, whether they're black or white or whoever, with hope and optimism, if they have education, decent jobs, they're not going to turn to drugs. they're going to turn to a better way of life and that is the root cause of addressing violence and guns that we see in the country. >> gun violence is occurring everyday on our sidewalks, in parks, in streets and particularly in communities of color. and it doesn't get a headline. but it matters. and it should matter to every one of us. meanwhile, oversight chairman elijah cummings joined a gun control rally in baltimore. >> we are fighting for the soul of our democracy, and the laws are not going to change until we get many people, many others, to join in with us to be a part of

this revolution. and it must be a revolution. i do believe we have a country where the people are afraid of the government. we have to twist that around. the government's got to be afraid of the people. >> all right, joining me now jonathan allen, nbc news national political reporter and hanna trudeau, with the daily beast. let's start talking 2020. senator elizabeth warren rising in the polls. a ugov poll is one point behind john biden. that's within the margin of error. what is warren doing right or what is biden not doing right? >> with warren, she has ha steady rise. the last few months there have been serious moments for her, the first two democratic debates were widely seen as huge successes for her or her call for impeachment which was very exciting for a lot of democrats. you have seen her money rise. and really more than any other

candidate, she puts staff in the states. you've seen her doing organizing with field organizers all over the early states. i think a lot of that is really coming together for her right now. >> guys, we are just less than a month from the next democratic primary debates. these nine democrats have qualified so far. hanna, whom else are you expecting to see on the stage in september and what are you sort of expecting to see there? >> well, i think we're just about to see julian castro potential make the cut, but i think among those ten that are really -- nine that are really competing, it's -- you're seeing some strong contenders, of course the top tier people, joe biden, bernie sanders, elizabeth warren, kamala harris, but you're also seeing some of the lower tier people squeaking by, like andrew yang. so i think it will be interesting to see who really brings the heat. of course joe biden was knocked widely in the first debate, was able to recover a bit in the second one. and kamala harris came out swinging in miami and stumbled a little bit more, i think, in

detroit. so that houston debate will be really critical to see who, like jonathan mentioned, elizabeth warren, is she going to have another performance where she knocks it out of the park. >> jonathan clearly elizabeth warren picked up ground to some biden support has eroded. anyone else a clear winner from that biden fade, and do you think he can bounce back? >> i'm not sure anybody else is a clear winner from biden dropping, but i think all of the rest of the field is a winner from biden dropping back a little bit, that means as much as the front-runner isn't way out in front of the rest of the pack, everybody else has an opportunity and, as hanna said, that next debate will be huge for a lot of folks. >> lots of gun control talk. we saw the president abandon his line on background checks this week. will that issue fade, do you think, once again as we have to wait out this congressional summer recess? >> well, i think it's clear that the congress is not coming back in session, so that's one thing. and more importantly, i think it's interesting gun control is

something that has truly united the democratic party in the middle of the presidential primary. so as we're seeing policy differences among candidates on various issues, health care, education, et cetera, we're seeing gun control really be a uniting force and we wrote about that in the daily beast a few weeks ago. we're seeing a lot of candidates have white nationalist agendas as part of those gun control platforms as a direct affront to president trump and to say that they are stronger contrast to him, in particular on his white nationalist what they see as rhetoric that sort of fan the flames calling for stricter gun control measures. >> all right. i want to switch gears here far second, guys, because republican congressman steve king is defending his recent comments about rape. he suggested the human population might not exist had it not been for rape and incest throughout the video. >> what if it was okay and what if we went through back the family trees and just pulled

those people out that were products of rape and insist, would there be any population on the left if we did that? >> so yesterday at a town hall in iowa a woman asked him about those comments. here is how he defended himself. >> this is about compassion and it's about not wanting to stigmatize these folks. there was a time when i was your age that if you grew up with a single mother you were not considered equal to the rest of the people in your classroom. that time has passed. now people say, i was raised by a single mother and some see it as a virtue, at least a virtue of their mother. i don't want to see the people products of rape and insist think they are lesser than the rest of us. >> jonathan, before those remarks yesterday you wrote the gop would like steve king to kindly shut up. i think i can imagine but i would like to hear you say it, what do you make of his defense? >> well, after having several days to think about it, it certainly a little better than the original comments he made because obviously couldn't be any worse than the original comments he made. i think old bell politicians

should probably just stop talking about their thoughts on rape if they're going to be anything like what steve king said. it drew condemnation from just about everybody except for his own family members and who knows what they may have said in private. this is a problem for the republican party in that he was espousing an ideological view held by probably only steve king except for that it reflects the policy of the republican party that's in their platform with regard to abortion. so it makes it very easy for democratic opponents to look at that policy and say that policy is born of king's ideology, even though most other republicans, in fact, probably all other republicans would say it has absolutely nothing to do with what he was explaining. >> steve king made a lot of other credential comments including this one he wrote in 2017, quote, we can't restore our civilization with somebody else's babies. he was asked about that yesterday. here is his defense. >> i don't want to see our

population shrinking because we don't care enough about ourselves to have our own babies and i don't want to see it europe or any place else. it wasn't about any baby born to an american in country and that should be easily discernible from the face of the statement itself. your babies are our babies. babies born to americans. >> hanna, what do you make of all this? what does steve king symbolize to you? whether about the republican party or our country as a whole? >> steve king has said many, many racist things over the past several years and basically over the past duration of his career. i think, again, what it says to democrats looking to unseat him in 2020 in a house district in iowa is that they have another united front to go up against. i mean, this is not somebody who should be hard to defeat by the democrat's standpoint. you know, they say look at all the comments he makes. you know, he is a walking attack ad for democrats.

and so i think jd shulten's challenge of him, he ran in 2018 and lost. he's taking another stab at it right now. i think, if anything, unseating him for the democratic party would really be amore al boost if nothing else. we can go up against racist retic and we can win and win in a district iowa that maybe we weren't competitive in before. >> let's hit one last topic today and talk about a revealing article in the washington post about stephen miller. the post interviewed him and also 22 current and former administration officials. here is one take away. an official tells the post, quote, trump has strong feelings about immigration but just superficial knowledge about how the immigration system works. the president relies heavily on miller to explain and to interpret it for him. jonathan, what does that reporting say to you? >> it says that he's not only the trance later for donald trump but is the translator and

see it throughout that article and all of us watching the policy in washington have seen it advanced over the course of the last couple years by stephen miller, both through legislative attempts by the trump administration and through executive action and through various policies at the agencies and through stephen miller's ability to essentially fire everybody else in the administration who deals with immigration who wasn't getting done the president's policies in the manner that the president and stephen miller would have liked in the time frame they would have liked. >> jonathan and hanna, thank you both for joining us early this morning. appreciate it. >> thanks, allison. >> thank you. now to a dramatic face-off in portland, oregon, more than a dozen people were arrested yesterday after nearly 1200 demonstrators from the far right and the far left took to the streets. portland police say six people were treated for minor injuries. nbc steve patterson is in portland for us with the latest.

>> reporter: protests erupt in portland. clashes between right wing agitators and left wing anti-fascists spilled out on to the streets. the conflict started when hundreds of right wing protesters assembled for a non-permitted rally on the city's waterfront. >> they're targeting us because it's a liberal city with progressive values and they know they'll get a rise out of us. then they vilify us on the internet and make us look like we're the terrorists. >> reporter: the event organized by joe brigs was billed as a show of force against the city's progressive antifa movement. >> look at it, we came in and did a march peacefully, went in, planted our flag and came back out and they're chasing us. >> reporter: squirmishes broke out when left wing groups responded. >> there's no speech that can't be said in this country, so that's what i'm here for. >> reporter: you feel like their tramping on that free speech in. >> i feel like they're trying to silence me. >> we would love to hear your

side. >> there's no two sides. there's nazi and not nazi. more than a thousands portland police officers were activated to keep these protests peaceful, but there were multiple flair ups between the groups. some even resulted in injuries. the president chiming in, considering naming antifa an organization of terror, saying he's watching portland closely. another chapter in a history of violence disrupting life for everyday portlanders. >> that was nbc steve patterson. police say those rallies lasted about nine hours. they seized several weapons, knives, bear spray and a stun gun. now to breaking news out of afghanistan, a suicide bombing at a crowded wedding in kabul killed at least 63 people and wounded 182 others. that blast was the deadliest attack this year in the capital. the taliban denying involvement and condemning the attack. joining me now on the phone, jake jacobs, msnbc analyst.

first off, we haven't heard of a lot of recent attacks of this magnitude, what is your sense of this one and is there anything to read into the timing? >> yeah, well, we're in the middle of talks there. >> uh-huh. >> the government of afghanistan is trying to work out a deal with the taliban in order to -- and the united states is heavily involved because the administration already decided they want to withdraw everybody. so these talks have been takes place for a long, long time. and everyday it looks like they're making progress, they're pungt waited by an attack like this. there are warring factions there in afghanistan. who would like to see those talks derailed because they don't want the taliban involved in the government. they include isis and isis offshoots who are anti-stet kal to what the government wants to achieve and what the united states wants to achieve. so as long as these talks continue, i think we're going to

see these attacks -- these attacks continue as well -- to derail the talks that are taking place, allison. >> you mentioned those talks. nearing a deal at the taliban to start withdrawing troops from afghanistan. "the washington post" is reporting, quote, initial withdrawal under the proposed deal would include roughly 5,000 of the 14,000 u.s. troops in afghanistan in exchange the taliban would agree to renounce al qaeda into barred from activities, fundraising, training, operational planning under areas of taliban control. what do you make of this possible deal especially in light of the attack we had this weekend? >> well, it's going to slow it all down. >> yeah. >> you know, one of the things to look at is that there was an old saw about who actually controls afghanistan. that the president of afghanistan is really only the mayor of kabul. it's a lawless place outside of kabul. tribes are dominant and the

afghan's government capabilities to control anything after any kind of agreement is next to zero. the people we're going to leave behind mostly are going to be advisers, administrative and logistical types to assist the government in any kind of transition with the taliban, but that's not going to happen any time soon, alison. >> some republican allies are cautioning kornl jack from a military and national security perspective. how critical f at all, do you think the president of u.s. troops are now, you know, after some 18, 19 years? have they sort of outlived their usefulness there? >> you have it in one. we've been there for almost two decades. the situation is not significantly improved from when we -- after we first went in there, after the first five years because of the lawless nature of the place. there's an argument that says

that we're at the point of diminishing returns there and anything we do, anything we do there is not going to have very much impact on the long-term or even midterm future in the place. it's difficult to agree with an isolationist view of the region, which is what the government has, our government has. but there's very little doubt that we're at the point of diminishing returns and people on both sides of the aisle are talking about the utility of withdrawing the large majority, if not all, american troops from afghanistan, alison. >> thanks so much for joining us. >> you bet. the last days of jeffrey epstein new and fascinating information about how he reportedly used his money while he was behind bar. you have to hear these details. e six years ago... and this is me now! i got liberty mutual. they customized my car insurance, so i only pay for what i need. then i won the lottery, got hair plugs, and started working out. and so can you!

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a simmering tension right now in hong kong. this is the scene of an 11th-straight weekend of anti-government protests. tens of thousands of demonstrators turning out in the rain for a pro-democracy march under the watchful eye of police. you're looking at a sea of umbrellas filling victoria park, so far relatively peaceful, no signs of any clashes there. today's mash comes amid calm and the chinese military police are right across the border. we'll keep you post and bring you a live report in the next hour. some new information this morning about accused sex trafficker jeffrey epstein's last days in a manhattan jail

where medical examiner now says epstein hanged himself. many people are doubting that ruling, including epstein's legal team which has threatened its own investigation into what happened. nbc's kathy park reports. >> reporter: another twist in the jeffrey epstein scandal. autopsy results officially ruling his death a suicide by hanging, disproving conspiracy theories suggesting he may have been kill aid long with his secrets. multiple sources familiar with the case say the 66-year-old inmate hanged himself with the bed sheet, but epstein's attorneys writing late friday it is indispute tbl authorities violated their own protocols. we're not satisfied with the conclusions of the medical examiner. epstein was found unresponse nif a federal jail awaiting trial on sex trafficking and conspiracy charges. the federal prison system became the target of harsh criticism from lawmakers who question how a high profile inmate could take his own life when guards should have been checking every half an

hour. two sources familiar with the case telling nbc news that investigators are now comparing logbooks and surveillance video to see if there were any gaps and if guards fell asleep when they should have been watching epstein. authorities also want to know why epstein was taken off suicide watch after he was found injured with marks on his neck last month. meantime, the mystery deepening over epstein's inner circle. most notably his long time friend accused of recruiting underage girls for his sex trafficking operation. maxwell has never been charged and repeat lid denied every being an enabler. >> i made a statement. thank you. >> while she stays silent, the shakeup isn't over. >> nbc's kathy park reporting. so far three women who accused epstein of sexual abuse have filed lawsuits against his estate and are claiming psychological trauma for the alleged abuse that occurred 15

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♪ now to the morning headlines. incredible new video shows dale earnhardt jr. and his family escaping from a burning plane. on the lower right of the screen, you can see a man there get out first. he's handed a small child. two pilots earnhardt, his wife and 1-year-old daughter plus the family dog were on that plane. no one was hurt. that's unbelievable in thursday's accident. there is still one person missing this morning in an unusual plane crash. a new york state home reduced to ashes when a small aircraft plunged into it. that happened on saturday. three people were inside that home. three were in the plane. at least one person a passenger is dead. aviation authorities say they are still investigating. and a health care this morning that has the cdc investigating 94 cases across 14 states doctors linking e cigarettes and vaping to dozens of people sick with potentially

dangerous lung illnesses. patients experiencing pneumonia-like symptoms. >> we don't yet fully understand the impact on the body, either short-term or long-term. >> the american vaping association, though, insists vaping is safe and that these illnesses are related to amateur-made products. new this morning, consternation on capitol hill, congressional democrats now calling for an investigation into why and how israel banned a visit by two congresswomen. two first muslim women elected to congress and president trump's interventions being viewed as an attempt to divide democrats and put bipartisan support for israel at risk. nbc's mike viqueira is traveling with the president and has this report. >> hello. >> congress wam ra she that tlaib spoke up as she spoke of her palestinian grandmother. >> i cannot tell you how much love i feel here. >> reporter: she wasn't in the middle east but home in detroit

this weekend. >> i should be on a plane to see her. >> reporter: after being barred from making the trip, tlaib appealed to the israeli government siting her grandmother's age and suggesting there may not be many more chances to see her. the israelis allowed her in, but not without conditions. while there, tlaib a vocal critic of israel's treatment of palestinians would have to be silent. tlaib said that was too much. tlaib's grandmother lives in the west bank says she hasn't seen her granddaughter in five or six years. why didn't they allow her to come here? tlaib's aunt says her niece made the right call. we were happy she decided not to come. house speaker nancy pelosi calls the episode a sign of weakness on the part of president trump and israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu, other leading democrats including long-time supporters of israel want ant investigation of the role u.s. ambassador to israel david freedman may have played in denying entry to a sitting member of congress. >> israel shouldn't have done it, but the united states should not have been involved in asking

israel to do it or forcing israel to do it. >> reporter: and despite the controversy and talk of investigations democrats are down playing any lasting impact on u.s./israel relations. speaker pelosi calls the relationship deep and long standing and it's clear that democratic leaders want to deescalate the kind of internal divisions on israel policy that president trump is trying to emphasize. alison? >> thanks, mike. joining me now, opinion columnist and member of the editorial board at bloomburg. opinions varied on both sides of this. what is your sense of how it's playing there overseas versus what's happening here? >> well, the fact is that what israel did was draw more attention to what was going to be a pretty high profile visit but then sort of magnified it hundred fold by first denying access to the two congresswomen and then turning around and

allowing rashida tlaib to go after all on humanitarian grounds. this draws more attention to the issues that they care about, which is the issues regarding the palestinians. we saw immediately during all of this controversy google searches for bds, boycott -- the boycott campaign spike. so, it seems like a terrible own goal by the israelis. they sort of defeated the objective of trying to deny these congresswomen access. >> so let me ask you this, congresswoman omar tweeted a long list of meeting she was planning with this trip, security officials, meetings with people in occupied territories, why would israel object to that? >> it's astonishing but it seems to be that the pressure from the white house was what forced the israelis to change their mind. piecing together the various strands that we have at this point, it would appear that israel agreed to the trip. it would appear that they gave

guarantees to the democratic leadership that the trip would be allowed. the two congresswoman made their plans, as you say, made plans to meet people from both sides of that divide. and then there was pressure from the white house whether or not it involved the ambassador we don't know, but the president of the united states tweeted out his opposition to the trip and then israel changed its mind. it's quite astonishing that the president of the united states has that kind of leverage, but you have to understand it in the context of israeli politics, bb netanyahu has a very difficult election coming up. his relationship with trump is one of the few constants, the few anchors he has in his political life. he cannot afford to antagonize president trump. and probably that's the reason why he decided to cave. >> bobby, they also pointed out that israel doesn't allow members of congress to visit gaza. why is that? >> well, israel's argument has

been that there are security concerns, political concerns. gaza is not the safest place in the world to be, but that is israel's argument. in congresswomen or congress people are willing to go and palestinians are willing to have them, then it's a little hard to understand israel's position on this. >> this ban has been criticized by some jewish american groups. how do you think this could pass? >> it's not going to pass quietly. i don't think these two congresswomen will let it pass quietly. they will bring it up i suspect frequently. it has done damage. whether it's lasting damage or not we can't tell. speaker pelosi's statements suggest that the democratic leadership wants to deescalate, but when two of your congresswomen have been denied access to a country that is meant to be america's closest ally, recipient of enormous amounts of american aid and political support in the world, that's not something you can quite easily sweep under the carpet.

this is not something that's going to go away. >> thanks so much. >> any time. out of the mouth of babes. frightened young children asking the presidential candidates tough questions about how to stop all the shootings. that's next. that's next. -their béarnaise sauce here is the best in town. [ soft piano music playing ] mm, uh, what do you do for fun? -not this. ♪ -oh, what am i into? mostly progressive's name your price tool. helps people find coverage options based on their budget.

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lawmakers to take action and put an end to gun violence. in the wake of high profile mass shootings every town for gun safety and mom's demand action organizing recess rallies across all 50 states this weekend. today more rallies are expected in cities like new york, chicago and houston. congresswomen elijah cummings spoke at baltimore's rally saturday talking about how his family has personally been affected by gun violence. >> when my nephew was killed as a 12-year-old student, somebody broke in his door at 5:00 in the morning and blew his brains out, i cannot tell you and i know that there are a lot of people here who can relate to this, but it's nothing like seeing the brains, the brain matter, of a young, aspiring student with a

3.9 average about to go to college and go on to law school, comes back, sent him there to get an education and he comes back in a coffin. >> meanwhile the 2020 campaign trail, tissue of gun control remains a hot topic there as democrats are asked tough questions by some of the youngest political spectators. garrett hague has more. garrett? >> reporter: used to be any time a candidate called on a kid were looking for a softball, easy question. children and their parents are challenging candidates to do something, anything, to stop gun violence. >> they have become heart breaking hallmarks of the campaign trail. children in classrooms in town halls letting candidates know they're scared. >> so what would you, as president, do to make schools and other places safer? >> reporter: the fear of gun violence in schools now so

profound it's not just parents asking candidates the tough questions. it's kids, like 8-year-old scout, home schooled in new hampshire, called on by cory booker. >> one of the reasons we're home schooled is that my mom thinks that it's not safe for children to be in public schools because the shootings. i want to know what you plan to do about those shootings? >> scout, i want you to know of all the presidential candidates there's nobody with more of a fire in me to solve this problem. >> scout's father, chris, encouraged his daughter's question. >> i'm trying to get them started on the right path so that they know they have to be involved. >> reporter: often the questions are emotional at beto o'rourke experienced in an iowa middle school. >> i'm afraid one day i'll go to school and i'll never come out. i'm sorry. >> reporter: sometimes it's the candidates, most like andrew yang, parents themselves, who get overwhelmed. >> i have a 6 and 3-year-old boy, i was imagining it was one of them that got shot and the

other saw it. >> reporter: the candidates show much of themselves in their answers. elizabeth warren, the concerned mom. >> as one of the grownups, i'm really sorry you have to ask that question. >> reporter: joe biden, who lost a daughter in a car crash and a son to cancer, the grieving father. >> i understand what it's like to lose a kid. i've lost two of them. the fact of the matter is, that your generation understands this better than everybody. that's why it's going to change. it's going to change. >> reporter: the next generation, too young to vote, too scared to stay silent, pushing presidential candidates to act. we'll all get to hear a lot more from the candidates on this issue coming up the first week in october. a major forum on gun violence in las vegas, nevada, set to coincide with the anniversary of the mass shooting there. so far, 14 candidates have pledged to attend. alison? >> nbc's garrett hague, thanks so much for that report.

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the economy has been a corner stone of president trump's re-election campaign as he consistently highlights it in public. >> we have the number one economy on earth. the strongest economy in history. we've got the hottest economy -- >> never had an economy like this. >> we're the hottest economy. >> but in private it's a different story. the president is not as confident in the state of the economy after all. according to "the washington post," mounting signs of global economic distress this week have along-termed president trump, whose worried that a downturn could imperil his re-election. joining me now, ra shad richie and ned ryan, former speech writer for president george w. bush. rashad, i want you to take a listen to liberal comedian bill mahr's take on the economic situation. >> i've been saying for about two years that i hope we have a recession. we can survive a recession. we've had 47 of them. we had one every time there's a

republican president. a recession would be very worth getting rid of donald trump and these kind of policies. >> you know, bill, recession would definitely knock him out of office. >> so, is that just bill mahr being bill mahre? >> well, that's bill being a comedian. bill mahre is not a prognosticator of economic anything. i look at his hyperbolic commentary as nothing but comedic. let's go beyond that. people are upset at bill mahre and i find it ironic that they're mad at bill mahre for talking about giving an opinion referencing the recession or upcoming recession but not mad at the guy who's bringing them the recession, president donald trump. nine out of the ten recessions that have happened in this country since 1953 have all happened under a republican president. in 2004, donald trump said it best, he said the economy tends

to do better under democratic presidents than republican presidents. you have the signs. these signs are significant. you have economic withdrawal in our marketplaces. we're talking about people buying coffee, clothes, cars, that's two thirds of your spending economy. you have a global slow down. so there's a context of an international market taking place. five of the largest economies on the planet earth are showing significant signs of global economic decline. so this is a problem. and, yeah, the president is right. this could be a political disaster for him going into the 2020 cycle. >> ned, let's bring you in here. what if the economy does fall into recession, can the president get past it or is that just game over for him? >> first of all, let me address the whole mahre comment. the only way dcs win in 2020 is for there to be a recession for the economy to tank. and it is -- it does address

some of the psych of the left even if they're not willing to admit it, privately you know it hoping for a recession, it's a shame. tens of millions of americans would suffer economically. that all to say, listen, say, l recessions are more about perception than numbers, and rashad throws out the retail numbers. i throw out numbers from walmart last week that showed record growth, a bellwether for the dow. fact of the matter is we have strong retail numbers, we have consumer confidence, the consumers are spending. if we have low interest rates, which we we continue to have, low inflation, low employment, i think americans keep spending and the feds keep the rates low through 2020, i see the economy being just fine. but i will say, to be honest, if the economy tanks, that is going to be very problematic for donald trump to win re-election in 2020. >> all right, so rashad, ned was talking about some of the strengths we've seen in our economy. definitely are some strengths there. the president has owned this rise of the economy, even as some democrats have accused him

of riding the coattails of president obama's economic recovery. so, would all of the blame actually fall on president trump, should there be a recession here? >> well, it has to, because president trump has set the gold. he's the guy who sold this, said this is my economy, this is my marketplace, this is because of my policies. he here's the truth of the matter, you have a self-inflicted wound in the economy through the president of the united states. you have this ongoing trade war with china. you have him being quite unstable as it relates to his comments on twitter, which actually does affect the marketplace. so, yes, he has oversold and underdelivered. and to ned's point about the recession not being about numbers, the recession hurts real people. that's why i totally disagree with bill maher's assessment and i don't wish a recession on anybody because that hurts poor people. >> that's right. >> that hurts minorities, that hurts children, that hurts the elderly, so i don't want that to happen to anybody. but listen, the president of the united states is the one bringing it. so we can talk about all of

these other external social contributors to our conversation, but the president of the united states is the guy who's setting the policy that will ultimately lead to possible economic disaster, and that's a problem. this is a policy issue. >> gentlemen, there is no doubt whether or not a recession is coming that we are seeing signs and people are concerned about the possibility. so, with that said, president trump was doubling down in spite of some of those economic worries. listen what he told supporters at a rally in new hampshire this week. >> see, the bottom line is, i know you like me and this room is a lovefest. i know that. but you have no choice but to vote for me because your 401(k)'s down the tubes, everything's going to be down the tubes. so, whether you love me or hate me, you've got to vote for me. >> all right, so ned, how does that message resonate with a number of trump supporters who might not even have a 401(k) or who don't have savings to fall back on? is that a message that's just lost on some people in his base?

>> well, then you've got to look at the jobs numbers, you've got to look at unemployment, you've got to look at other economic factors. the fact of the matter is, he's kind of right. i mean, unpopular presidents who have strong economic numbers win. i would remind people, on the day he won in november of 2016, his approval rating in the gallup poll was about 36% and his disapproval was 62% and people still voted him into office. so, fact of the matter is, even if he's unpopular and the economic numbers are going well, he's also running on the historical trends, alison. only five presidents have lost re-election since 1900. if he has strong economic numbers, it's very hard to beat an incumbent with a strong economy. and again, his supporters are not only looking at 401(k) and other things, they're looking, am i employed? do i have a paycheck? can i put food on my table? can i pay for my mortgage? if all of those things actually add up in november of 2020, again, i don't see any democrat beating trump in 2020. >> all right, so let's talk about that for a moment.

here's a look at how trump's re-election could fare. a fox news poll shows him losing head-to-head matchups against joe biden, bernie sanders, kamala harris and elizabeth warren. rashad, this looks good for democrats, but do polls like this give a false sense of hope that so many candidates could beat trump in a general election? >> polls will give a false sense of hope if you believe a poll is a prediction. a poll is not a prediction. it is simply a snapshot of the current thinking of individuals. >> that's right. >> and in politics, people's thinking changes and shifts like the wind, so take it for what it is. it is a good indicator for democrats right now. it is a bad indicator for the republican president. and to ned's other point about presidents being re-elected if they have a strong economy -- this is the first president in the history of our nation who has a decent economy, a robust economy that's growing, but they do not contribute the economy to him based on the polling data.

that's a problem for the president, because usually if a president does have a strong economy, the united states of america, the citizens, they actually give him credit for it. they're not giving him credit for this economy yet. >> all right, guys, one last thing. president trump seemingly taking notice of the recent rise of one of the democratic opponents. we're talking about elizabeth warren. take a listen. >> elizabeth warren. [ audience reacts ] i did the pocahontas thing. i hit her really hard. and it looked like she was down and out. but that was too long ago. i should have waited. but don't worry, we will revive it. it can be revived. it can be -- right? >> i mean, ned, have people just had enough of that racial slur? where do you stand on that one? >> well, no, i want to go to a bigger picture. i've been looking at these numbers. i do think elizabeth warren stands a very good chance of actually winning the nomination. i don't think joe biden gets across the finish line first. i don't think bernie sanders is going to get it. tulsi gabbard backed a dump

truck over kamala harris in the last debate. i don't think mayor pete has -- and all of a sudden, i'm looking the at the math going, elizabeth warren could do it. >> ned, look -- all right, elizabeth warren may get her over the finish line, but what about those slurs? your take? are we done with them? is it enough? >> well, i think he should point out how inauthentic she is with her false claims on being a native american -- >> but are you tired of hearing him say that? >> no, absolutely i'm not. but i think he should make it an issue if she is going to be inauthentic, and i think that's a huge achilles' heel for her. i think he should highlight it. >> come on, ned. >> thanks for joining us. we appreciate it. >> thanks. an nbc news investigation uncovers a troubling finding about the widespread detainment of migrants in this country. that's coming up. and ahead this morning on "up with david gura," the creator of "the new york times" 1619 project, an in-depth look at the slaeyg legacy of slavery. le. brain freeze! no, it's my teeth. your teeth hurt? sensitivity. i should see my dentist.

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well, we're approaching the top of the hour. i'm alison morrison. it's time for my colleague, kendis gibson, to keep our coverage going. good morning, kendis. >> good morning. so good to see you in person. >> you, too, hi! >> hi. enjoy the rest of your sunday as we say good morning. i'm kendis gibson in new york at msnbc world headquarters. it is 7:00 on the east coast, 4:00 on the west coast. here's what's happening right now. a new poll, a new shift. what fresh numbers say about the top democratic front-runners. plus, the busy day ahead for the contenders. his final days.