on continuing trade war fears. i will see you back here tonight at 10:00 p.m. eastern for the last word. thank you for watching. i want to hand it over to my friend john heilemann, in for nicolle wallace. what a day, john. >> i heard you say you will be in at 10:00 and that's not a fact. you will be here at the table in a second because i'm not letting you leave the building. you know about the stuff i don't. please come over here. >> i will make my way over. >> we will watch the numbers you're paying attention to, little optimism at the end. we're saving a seat for ali, who will make a run over here and we will talk about this. but we're hours away for the president taking off to the g7 summit where allies are bracing for the trump-fueled mayhem that is now 100% certain to endue, with trump like a drunken traveler in the departure lounge about to take a trip that he dreads, sewing global chaos, days-long public meltdown typally moved from words to

actions. donald trump beginning this day with a twitter tirade that sent the dow spiraling, closing down more than 600 points today and escalating his trade war with china with these norm-shattering, power-abusing words in this tweet. read this, our great american companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to china, including bringing your companies hope and making your products in the u.s.a. talk about a command economy. we're also watching the white house at this hour and waiting for trump to make good on his promise today to further respond to china's latest move in that trade war. china's slapping new tariffs on american goods. but wait, there's more. donald trump lashing out again today, even more wildly than usual at fed chair jerome powell, whom you may recall trump appointed to that job and who this morning said that the

trade war is partly to blame for the darkening u.s. outlook and partly trump's own fault. here's what donald trump had to say about that. my only question is who is our bigger enemy, jay powell or chairman xi? okay. just hold on that for a moment. donald trump, president of the united states, comparing his own handpicked fed chair to the authoritarian president of chiep. who -- china. here to talk us through all of this lunacy, derespond, depression, everything, heidi przybyla on camera and actually at this table, more importantly they're here so i can keep them close. and our correspondent for boston's public news station brurn, and "the new york times" political reporter and new dad kim compass sorry.

and here he comes, the velshi man cometh. >> bad news. >> i was going to say when you need to call ali velshi in for a live hit, you know you're in trouble. i have someone on the phone who maybe knows more than you do, ali, about the economy, former chairman of the economic advisers for president obama, that's austin goolsby. austin, thank you for calling in. just give us, if you would, austin, your sense of what has unfolded today and how bad it is. >> yes, it's terrible. there hasn't been a day like this in a very long time. yes, the markets sell a lot but the fact we're going to have an escalating trade war, the president of the united states is publicly declaring the head of the fed an enemy of the state and, oh, by the way, 40% of the

amazon is on fire and ruth bader ginsburg is being treated for pancreatic cancer. if this is on a friday, it makes it bad for monday. >> the world seems like it's caught on fire, austen. the last two, three years of donald trump his words are devalued to a large extent. people don't take him seriously. he rants and raves and has tie tirades. we see it all the time. the thing people predicted is eventually the words would start to take a toll on america's standing in the world economy and on the world economy broadly. it seems like we're now at that moment or if not already over the brink of it, we're there. >> yeah, god, i hope not but i fear that's true. at east juncture when the president would go after china and seek to escalate the trade war and declare he's going to put 50 billion of tariffs, what you would see is the chinese

government would respond but they would try to deescalate. so if he said 50 billion, they would say we must retaliate and we will retaliate with 25. he said we'll go to 100. they said we'll go to 50. now we crossed some threshold that it's clear the chinese government is wanting to escalate the conflict rather than deescalate it. that as we have seen president trump's behavior many times, if he wants to escalate back, and i think the stock market reacted as badly as it did is there's no lower fwou how that bad that can be. if we escalate that trade war, we're already teetering on the edge of recession. if you get in a full-blown trade war between the two biggest economies in the world, we will both have a recession. there's no doubt about it.

>> i will let you go after i ask you this question but we talk a lot about the guardrails around donald trump and in various areas, national security and other places, democratic guardrails, systemic guardrails. it seems like what you're saying partly here in some ways foreign actors on the economic front have been guardrails in some sense against trump doing the kind of damage he might do and now those guardrails are not just off but you have a rival arguably the only real economic rival on the globe to the united states now basically saying, okay, we had enough and we're going to fight this fight. at that point there's nothing left to restrain donald trump. a, you think that's a correct analysis? and b, you said there's no downward bound. how bad could this get >> . >> it could get really bad. i think that might be an accurate description. and there were some voices of restraint let's call it within the administration on economic matters and almost all of those voices of restraint have left

and you have seen return to prominence of characters in the administration like peter navarro who actively want a trade war with china. and so if, as i say, we've had the longest boom in u.s. history. it was already getting a little weak in the knees and we were starting to slow. the rest of the world is slowing, as they're going to discuss at the g7 meeting that the president is headed to, and to add this on top of it i think is a very high chance this could drive us into recession just in time for 2020. i don't know what the president is thinking. >> we are going to pick up with that. thank you, austan, get back to your bunker and make sure you have a lot of bottled water and ramen noodles stored away there. ali, i want to ask you, put up this chart of the dow here showing the drop after trump's tweet. that's what happened today.

so i'm not a market fixationists. the markets go up and down. it could go up 700 points on monday. >> correct. >> but the thing austan is talking about is not a market phenomenon, the president slapping tariffs on things. how bad could this get? >> this is the worst kind of trade war. it's lose-lose for everybody. u.s. losing, farmers are losing because prices are going up and we're not selling stuff to china. china is losing, probably hurting more than we are in the united states. and there's no resolution in sight because the aim of this war wasn't clear. there was a global consensus china could use some constraining in some of its trade practices. >> intellectual property, et cetera. >> we would have had the entire world on our side but at the time we started it with canada and europe and we fought everybody all the time and there was no focused goal. so this is the worst kind of war. everybody involved loses.

as austan, this could put the world into a recession, and nobody articulates what is the outcome? at least in a war when you have success, it's gaining control over it. but it's not clear what's success here, we did not go over what china is doing wrong that the entire world agrees with. we're fighting a haphazard war that is meant to look like we're beating our chest. and the two other things that happened today is the war with the federal reserve, which is unheard of. all over the world central banks work the same way. they're inned of their governments and have to stand ready to do things whether things go wrong on the economy. and he said i hereby order all american companies to find alternatives to doing business with china. we don't hereby order companies to do things. >> command economies. that's soviet russia stuff. >> this is the government that has undone of the consumer financial protection bureau and epa. we do not even hereby command

companies not to put garbage in the waters but we're arciguing about this stuff. there's something else that feels unhinged and investors don't want to go into the weekend wondering what he will do at g7. you're right, it could be up next week but there's worry now. >> there's two conjoined crazinesses. you're right, no theory of success looks like or obvious strategy. the revelation to me, at least not a revelation we have known for a while, is how the economy is lacking. the president is going around to people saying, we don't need china. if we had trade with china, that would be fine. just talk about that for a second. what would it mean to the united states in terms of its inflows and outflows of goods and services is if there were no

chinese trade? >> our economy for better or worst the last 60 years globally has gotten better because we get to buy things from other people that we don't do as well as making. as much as we would like to make all of our t-shirts in the united states, if you do it as $15, $20 labor, it will cost everybody more. america likes lower-priced goods. and we made a deal with the devil a long time ago, china with all of its money bought all of our new debt. the deal is we buy from china, china doesn't sell our debt on the open market and create a whole lot of problems for us with our dollar. so this is not an easy matter to extract yourself from. if you want to say over ten years extract your self-from a relationship with china and here's how it's laid out properly, that would be interesting. there's nothing that looks like a plan here. >> nick, i want to ask you a question here that converges into politics. i said conjoined craziness. donald trump all we presume wants to win re-election in

2020. it's hard to understand what the theory of the case would be, if you recognize a recession would be bad for donald trump's election process -- prospects, about plunging us into a trade war, attacking the federal reserve chairman, almost guaranteeing this kind of market spiral, what is the theory by which these actions could lead to a positive political outcome for the president given the fact he's courting economic disaster and courting theory he will not get re-elected? >> it's all theory. he does not understand the basic fundamentals of trade. he doesn't know how the machine works and has gone into a war with tweets and xi is bringing guns. he can stand to make his people miserable in a recession and trump can't. what i saw in the tweet about command and control of operations, that was a cry for

help. that was a surrender flag in this war. that's him saying i'm out. i need you guys to fix it for me somehow. >> here you see the tweet from george conway, one of the most acute critics of the president of the united states. his tweet today said the president of the united states is psychologically decompensating before our very eyes. heidi przybyla, i know you're not a psychologist but you live in washington, d.c. and astute student of the president. it's been a long time since i lived there but back in the days i lived in washington with george w. bush or bill clinton, if a president opened fire on a fed chair the way donald trump did today, there would be mass panic in the streets of washington. what is the reaction of washington, d.c. and interpretation of the trump psyche where you're sitting? >> it's almost as if we're in some alternate universe here. we've been at this place many times, for instance, after charlottesville when we look to our leaders to have some kind of inkling of outrage or weighing

in somehow. they're all on vrecess but i ca guarantee you there's a lot of nervousness we are hearing from members under the radar. they're not going to say this on the record but those indicators we're looking at now with the inverted yield curve, with investment now freezing up in light of this escalating trade war that there's a lot of nervousness now. these members go back to their home states, for instance, in iowa, where we really were looking to the farmers and asking them for months, why are you still supporting donald trump when these tariffs are hurting you, and he's saying that you're not paying the tariffs, chiep's paying the tariffs. each time they would say well, we're holding out because he's going to get us a deal. now what we're seeing and what they are seeing is he's not going to get us a deal. and this is only going to get worse. and the only remedy from the

president's perspective is go back to his real estate playbook of spinning this and say e everything is fine and he always lands on his feet and he will pull out a win here. you can't conduct trade policy, foreign policy or conduct yourself as president of the united states if you're a real estate entrepreneur. if you don't get what want your pound your fists on the desk and get up and walk. that's what we are seeing here time and again, this latest iteration. >> let's tether this to reality. i will read a bit from "the washington post" and then come to you kimberly. the quote from "the washington post," the month shadows fell on trump's economy. even as aides warned the risk is faltering trump is saying the economy is, quote, incredible. he said he can convince americans the economy is viable even though it can be a muddled and contradictory message.

here's the president saying i can convince america. let's see what he's been saying over the course of the last week. >> the united states is doing phenomenally well. yesterday we had the strongest dollar in the history of our country. yesterday we had the strongest dollar in the history of our country. we have more people working today than we ever had before in the history of our country. we have almost 160 million people working today. we're winning against china. they lost 2.5 million jobs in a very short period of time. we're very far from a recession. the fake news, of which many of you are members, is trying to convince the public to have a recession. let's have a recession. i have a strong economy. president obama did two payroll tax cuts and despite that i have a much stronger economy. >> right now we're the number one country anywhere in the world by far as an economy. >> so the thing i like about that, kimberly, is the fact it's planted out over the course of this week underneath the banner

that says stocks drop after trump orders to alternatives ordered by china. the writing is on the chyron. so as the talk runs into the reality in a very dramatic and jarring way today, what do the political markets say about that in terms of the kwepconsequencer not just the country but presidency? >> i think we are seeing two things play out. that clip or series of clips reminds me of "the apprentice" if you watched that show. everything he talked about was in superlatives. every trump property was the best and finest. that's him being the showman and he thinks public messening can get him out of problems. we also see a president who so far, despite all of the things he's done and heidi talked about from charlottesville to his conflicts with our allies and coddling our enemies has not paid a price with his base yet. his base support remains real

strong so he doesn't see a reason to change his approach because it always works for him. but his advisers know one thing that can torpedo his election is if the economy tanks so they're getting to worry and know there's not a way to talk your way out of this. ali knows it more than anything. the market likes stability, a plan, understand what's going on and right now there's absolutely nothing of that. nobody knows what he will do at the g7, very important meeting where our allies said we won't even try to do a communique because we don't know what this president will do and he's upending the markets with tweets and talking about things that demonstrate his lack of understanding or caring how things work. i think this is something that can be different than all of these other things if the economy takes a dive. >> my favorite philosopher was yogi berra, prediction is difficult, especially about the future. nonetheless we're headed into the g7 -- what's the word i can

say without using a profanity. it's going to be a blank show, let's put it that way. the markets come roll back in monday morning having watched the president sow mow chaos and dissent and discourse and we don't have a communique and all of that plays out over the g7. the markets wam wake up monday morning and say what? >> here's the thing, you said you don't get too fixated on the market and that's a good thing. there are a few of us who do and that's our job. the market is less relevant than everything else. these are people's investments, not unserious, but wages and jobs is where the presiderubber the road. the president can go out and talk up anything he wants. and i think even if a democrat is doing it for political purposes hoping for a recession is doing the wrong thing. that said recessions come, jobs get lost, wages go down and at

that point you can't sell your bill of goods anymore. the expectation some time between the next six months or 24 months, that is what likely will happen. we're not small enough to solve that yet. we're going to have a recession. he can talk all he wants. remember in april and may of 2008, george w. bush and ben bernanke were out there saying everything's going to be okay. it wasn't okay. that's what presidents do, talk up their economies. when people start losing jobs, then it will hurt. >> i will amend this and let you go, it's the truth, nobody ever figured out how to end the business cycle and recessions happen. what good, smart presidents do is try to mitigate against the worst and try to do no harm. we have a president not snamart enough to solve the cycle but stabbing the patient on the table. >> yes. >> ali velshi, you bear no good news -- >> none. when i show up on the show, it can only be bad. >> thank you for coming by, my

brother. still to come, how likely this will all play out on the stage from trump arrives for the g7. a and more bad news, breaking news on the u.s. supreme court, justice ruth bader ginsburg's health, what we're learning about her viral cancer. i'm alex trebek here to tell you about the colonial penn program. if you're age 50 to 85 and looking to buy life insurance on a fixed budget, remember the three p's. what are the three p's? the three p's of life insurance on a fixed budget are price, price, and price. a price you can afford, a price that can't increase, and a price that fits your budget.

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we learned this afternoon supreme court justice ruth bader ginsburg completed a three-week treatment for a tumor on her n

pancreas. doctors discovered a localized tumor late last month. quote, the juice tolerated treatment well. she canceled her annual summer visit to santa fe but has otherwise maintained an active signal. the tumor was treated definitively and there's no evidence of disease elsewhere in the body. justice ginsburg will continue to have scans and no further treatment is needed at the time. it is worth shoating ruth bader ginsburg is 86 and she's tough as nails. but she dpgsed with colon cancer in 1989 and pancreatic cancer ten years later. she had a fall back in november which fractured three ribs and pair of surgeries to remove two cancerous growths from her lungs. man, i can't believe she's still standing. joining us now, nbc news justice correspondent pete well. pete, give us a sense of when something like this befalls a justice, especially one that has assumed legendary status like

rbg, there's a reaction in washington, d.c., especially around people near the supreme court, how are people reacting to this news today? >> here we go again basically and every time she bounced back. i think you have to remember about her is she's extremely careful about her health, gets regular tests and that's how it was first detected. blood test in july followed by a definitive test in late july. but everything about this statement is forward looking, even though she covered her summer visit to santa fe, she's still been active. you may remember she did this as an outpatient, john. so she's in new york, she's in between treatments, she's shopping. she went to a broadway play. she went backstage to production of "fiddler on the roof" and kate mckinnon, who plays her on

"saturday night live," was there and tweeted video of justice ginsburg backstage in the middle of the course of therapy that she's getting in new york. just a week before this was diagnosed, just a week before the definitive diagnosis, after the blood test in early july, in late july she was at a forum at duke and she was asked how long are you going stay on the supreme court? she said well, i'm 86. i want to stay as long as i can. i'm taking it year by year. i had a good year this year. we will see how it goes next year. she always said consistently she's not going anywhere as long as she feels able to do the work, and everything in this statement would suggest she will be there when the court begins its new term in october. >> yeah, that was the question i was going to ask you, pete, look, i think there's no one even vaguely familiar with cancer world who doesn't shutter when they hear the word pancreatic cancer. it's not like prostate cancer or

other forms of cancer that people readily get past. is the expectation based on what we know, i know it's early and we don't know much, you think the expectation given the phrasing of the statement and what's out there right now is people expect her to be back on the court this fall? >> oh, without question. we will see how it goes through the year. i have talked to a couple of cancer specialists in the past hour so i can't claim to know a lot about this but they focus in on a couple of things. the kind of treatment they gave her, which is a very focused, intense treatment suggests a small area they were going after. secondly, they described it as a ma anythi malignant tumor on her pancreas, localized malignant tumor. thirdly they say the tumor was treated definitively. that is a medical term meaning that the goal is to wipe it out,

to in essence cure the patient. so based on all of these things, it would appear to be -- i guess as you can say it this way, as good as you can expect for pancreatic cancer. >> kimberly atkins, you're a court watcher and over the years have seen justices. she's unusual in the sense they're all legendary in some sense. there are not that many supreme court justices in the history of the country. she has a place in popular cull thursday that's different. the notorious rbg, all of that. you can feel part of the thing happening now is there's a tremor out in the country among people who love her, for whom she symbolizes, extraordinary things for a lot of women particularly and who are concerned about what the future holds if -- if her health seems in any way precarious, caused a lot of people to get nefbous. >> yes.

one of the reasons she reached that cult status rbg is because of the way she dealt with all of the health problems that you delineated. so she did come back after cancer. she never missed an oral argument. after the fall she had, she missed some but she also was able to read the transcripts of the argument. she didn't miss a beat, she participated in the cases. the first day of court after her husband passed away, she was on the court. she was at work. she takes this very seriously. in part probably because she knows people are watching her. people are speculating about what might happen. so i think pete is absolutely right. the way this statement was worded makes very clear that she does not i tend to miss a beat, that she will participate in the cases coming up and she will be on the court that first monday in october. >> all right. thank you for taking the time. kimberly, nick, heidi, you guys don't go anywhere. stick with me, please. when we come back, donald trump has not even departed for the g7 and he's already making demands

of his closest allies. those allies now bracing for a big blowup. that is next.

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. in just a few hours donald trump departs for this year's g7 summit in france, a meeting under which any other president would be a much more mundane affair but under donald trump is described this way by "the washington post" -- quote, like an annual holiday gathering where the main goal is to get through the day without a explosion, one of france's main objectives as host of this g7 summit is minimize the chances president trump will blow it up. i assume they mean the meeting and not the country of france. although you never know, if today is any indication, seems like wishful thinking. the post adds this, already trump has shaken up the schedule calling for a last-minute special meeting sunday morning to discuss the global economy. apparently the rest of the summit's agenda, that would

include climate change, political situation in hong kong, all of those things not appealing to the u.s. president. trump has complained repeatedly to senior aides about having to attend and see if his meeting with boris johnson, considered a potential world ally on the center stage, as the only bright spot. joining the conversation deputy assistant secretary of defense, and senior adviser and reverend al sharpton, host of "politicsnation" here on msnbc. as you look ahead of what you have seen today and contemplate the attitude of what is about to unfold, the attitude of the rest of the g7 countries, what are you expecting to see over the next couple of days in france? >> okay, john, it's a little hard to predict exactly because the president doesn't give us a really good sense of exactly what kind of bombs he's going to

linebacker at our allies and partners, but we know that he's not comfortable with thigese meetings. last year, of course, didn't go very well at all. this year they already said there's not going to be communique. they are trying hard not to avoid problems. they may have agreement on hong kong. that's where the president is willing to put the chinese on alert to not use force against demonstrators. that's one area. but he wants to give lecture to the allies about how great the u.s. economy is. >> it's impossible to predict in sense because it's donald trump but you may be able to predict having been to a fair number of international meetings of this kind in your career, what are the world leaders rolling in thinking as they get ready for two days with dinner with donald? >> first they're thinking, john, we're really upset because this economic basically assault that

the u.s. president has conducted on -- against our allies with regard to trade is hurting them all. they're all worried about world trade, the world economy, right. then, of course, literally the world is on fire but our president continues to think that we don't have a climate crisis. so raising it with him probably won't be productive. so they're probably seething and wanting wanting to address this so probably try to figure out how to raise them with the president. they will probably have conversations among themselves, though i don't know how with president trump at the table but he often comes in late so maybe they will start without him. >> heidi, some people of the national press said to me it's gotten to the point where leaders of the foreign country normally live for the quiet pollcide, unplanned bilateral with the president in a hallway, cubbyhole, they now spend their

time at this event trying to avoid trump. emmanuel macron is asking his aides, what room is trump in? let me go the opposite direction. i don't want to spend any unplanned time with that guy. do you think trump is aware of that remotely or does he even care? is this whole thing for him i have to go see bojo and that's it? >> the iconic picture, john, of the last summit where all of the leaders were standing over him gammered with angela merkel leaning in. he had his arms crossed there, body language was he was closed to anything that those leaders wanted to discuss at that meeting. since then we've seen the tensions just layer on within the past year. they were angry over the withdrawal from the paris climate accords. they're angry over the iran nuclear deal, which they support and which the president has been doing his level best to push them into reneging on that as

well. and this is just something that is not going to resolve, it's going to continue to get worse and i don't think at this moment that we can predict exactly what that touchstone is going to be, where the controversial headlines will come from but you can be rest assured like evelyn said, given the president has already called this last-minute meeting where he plans to essentially give a maga speech to our european allies, that those tensions are only going to get worse and we're going to see in the end these are just a lot of dispret, separate statements instead of one joint communique. frankly that doesn't do anything but it at least gave a venire of camaraderie and mutual purpose. >> nick confessore, i read to you my tweet from madeleine

albright -- g7 shouldn't be an ego trip, even those who think they are chosen need friends. does donald trump think he needs friend, other than bojo? >> no, he doesn't. the whole idea what the g7 is supposed to be is an accuman to him. think how they unfold, months and months, behind-the-scenes formation, it's structured and staged. the actual event is not always where everything happens. he hates reading briefing papers. he hates getting along with people. he hates sitting through meetings. what will happen, he will walk in, have some pollcides, probably put a bid on iceland and get into a fight and go home. that's how he does all of these every time. >> rev, what do you think? >> i think you must deal to the fact when you go to these kind of meetings, the goal of most global leaders is how do we

interact and have some sort of consensus. when you have someone at the table purely nationalist, purely i'm about my country and only and it's us against the world, he doesn't even fit in the context of what the meeting is about. he's there to lecture them america first and america last and deal with me and me only because he's playing to the crowd back home that i went in there and told the whole world it's about us. he's not even talking to them, let alone listening to them. and it's only a matter of hoping he doesn't go too far that the whole thing explodes. he's not there for the reason everyone else is there or what former presidents went there for. he's there to see them as a backboard for him to score in. and that's the end of his purpose. >> kimberly, you spent time with these powers in washington, d.c. used to be a time when alliances, multi lateralism, all of that stuff, this is what these meetings were for, reinforcing the western world,

industrialized world as a system for order and stability and prosperity and peace. does anybody even talk like that in donald trump's washington? >> no. and i think our allies, all of the other leaders who are going to be at the g7 have long stopped expecting donald trump to talk that way too. i think that's why the expectations are zero from their side essentially. and it's not just about these leaders coming together to talk about their collective interests as western powers. of course, one economy affects everyone's economy. it's a chance to chat, to have one on one very candid conversations with these people that you have to work with. it's a chance to form camaraderie and that, too, is something completely opposite of what donald trump is interested in. >> i have one last question because we've been talking about it all week long, which has been trump all of a sudden back on the bandwagon for trying to get

russia to get back into the g7 and become part of the g8. i have been dieing to ask this question all week as he's been doing it, what do you think of that, where do you think it's going? what do you think it's motivated by? and what do you think vladimir putin thinks as he watches this all play out? >> first, john, vladimir putin is saying thank you, donald, because this is -- he has doing the bidling of the kremlin. and he's bringing it up again and again. he won't let it go. he knows it has no chance. even bojo as you called him, boris johnson, called up the ukrainian president and said don't worry about it, we're not letting rush back in. why in russia was kicked out for invading ukraine and stealing crimea. it's not going anywhere. the president brings it up and brings it up publicly. so tells me he wants to curry favor so badly with vladimir putin. >> ellen farc ourks that's basically what i thought you would say. thank you for helping me

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...and it's now on sale fors and just $59.ories. it can lead you on an unexpected journey... ...to discover your heritage. get your dna kit (now) for just $59 at ancestry.com. anxious, rattled, erratic. all of these words have been used recently to describe donald trump's behavior amid warning signs about the economy and his own re-election prospects. there's no comfort to be found in the polling for donald trump. the new numbers have his approval rating in the absolute basement, maybe sub basement. 36% approval rating. disapproval at 62%. that means he's 26 points underwater. those numbers are really not good. and there are also warning signs hidden deep within the polling but here's one that can prove to be a canary in the coal mine.

trump's approval among white women with no college education, almost half would vote for a generic democrat over trump. he's minus six among noncollege white women, despite a plus 27-point margin in that demographic in 2016. that is a big swing. heidi and the table are back. doug, i will start with you since you're a new voice at the table. you're sitting there democratic consultant and looking at the numbers of president trump and saying, man, slam dunk, we got this in the bag or that guy pulled an inside straight in 2016 and we have to be careful? >> i'm looking at the number that shows approval rating of above 50 on the economy. that's what i'm worried about. all of these other ones are great and when you pair him against a number of democrats, he gets beat. he doesn't even get above 40 in a fox new poll but they still approve of his handling of the economy. what i will do is take that away from him.

i will go directly at him and make the case trump is out for himself and the biggest threat to the u.s. economy is donald trump. and he has an incoherent rattling strategy to deal with the economy and i'm going to go right after him on that. >> kimberly, you look at the numbers, i decided the nonwhite college women where trump ran the table against hillary clinton in 2016 and now is underwater with them, overall according to the recent monmouth poll, look at the men/women split here, look at what the women and thing that jumps off the table here, 62% disapproval among women, 31% approval. women crushed the republican party in the historic midterm elections for democrats. women hold the key in this race and donald trump is not in a good place. >> he is not. and that was one of the biggest demographics looking at the exit polling of white women in particular and realizing that was the magic pill for donald trump. that pushed him over the top.

you see a lot of concern, a lot of softening of the support there. i still think it's too early to make any broad predictions based on this because congressional races than presidential races. i've seen plenty of reports and talked to voters, women, who say, well, we don't like how he tweets and i don't really like what he's doing. but they don't definitively rule out voting for him again. so i still think it's early to watch, but i do think that's a very important demographic. >> let me throw up another set of numbers where this ap in our poll on key issues. this looks even worse than doug suggested. this is how bad things are getting for trump. trump dace proval rating on the economy 51, on imcongratulations, 60, health care, 60, foreign policy, 61, gun policy, 61. those numbers are consistent with the 62% disapproval rating. and he's a little better on the economy than on the rest of these.

but you're looking for any bright spot in those numbers, start driging through the cross tab. there's nothing in there that he's walking away going, okay, he's my path to re-election. the only path is if the democrats don't know how to do el with that and use that and start fighting each other rather than beating down those numbers even further that is on the approval side, i would hope that as you go into the third debates now that the democrats focus on trump, his lack of ability to really keep his promises in terms of the economy, how the tax cut affected those white women that have now switched rather than seeing who can get the best sound byte on each other. we all know who's good or bad now with the sound bytes. this one had a good night. that one had a bad night in the first and second debates. they ought to narrow in on trump. if you beat down those pocket book issues, you soften the body and then you knock him out next

year. but don't just keep going at each other. >> there are a lot of reasons why i like having you at this table. and one of them is that you provide transitions that are nice and smooth. seth moulton, massachusetts congressman today drops out of the race today and says showing that he is a sharper political analyst than he is a candidate says, hey, it's a three-person race right now. you look up, you've got three people, bernie sanders, elizabeth warren, and joe biden. that is the race according to seth moulton i think if you look at the numbers. well, i don't think we have them, but i'm looking at them here. biden at 28. warren and sanders at 15 and 16%. everybody else single digits and below. so -- are you like seth moulton, do you think it's only a three-person race? >> it's remarkable for how long the base has basically stayed with warren being the one moving. this is a party that is trying to decide what it wants to be after obama. and they have to get through that process first before they can take on trump.

now, trump was unpopular before he was elected. he was unfamiliar after he was elected. >> and on the day he was elected. >> but he was still elected because elections are still about choices. and that does actually happen quite a lot. so a lot is going to depend on who the democrats nominate. you'll hear some voices in the party saying they'll call a socialist no matter what. yeah, but some people are easier attack than others. facts and policy matter. so i think the biggest thing we don't know is who's going to be on the other side of the fall debate stage. >> heidi przybyla, and if that's not true, who else is in the top tier if it's not just those three? >> i'd hurt myself by saying i agree with him. but looking at the stability of the polls, and to nick's point that, yes, the only threat here seems to be to bernie sanders

from elizabeth warren, that we could envision a scenario where we roll into iowa, and by the time we get to south carolina, things are pretty set unless some dynamic changes wherein these voters, these democratic voters who are not budging and who continue to support biden for some reason do not no longer believe that he's the only thing standing between them and a third trump presidency. you heard jill biden talking about that and even saying it only in a speech as she was doing a sit-down with voters. she said we just have to keep our priority straight. we have to keep our eye on the ball here. and that is defeating donald trump. secondly, if the economy does continue to falter, i think joe biden's going to be a strong position just because he comes from these -- or he identifies with these midwestern states that are going to be and are hurting the most.

>> doug, i want to ask you. so this is the story of the week. joe biden, big lead in the polls. his wife comes out and basically says, hey, you might not love him, but he's electable. but this is a party, as you know well, republicans fall in line, democrats fall in love. we see some signs of an enthusiasm gap for joe biden. do you see those signs, and do you think that he may be a little bit of a paper frontrunner? >> i don't think he's a paper frontrunner. look, he's very well known to the party. he has that going for him. he has his relationship with barack obama, which i am very surprised that other candidates have been trying to go after the obama legacy like they have. obama has about a 95, 96% favorable rating among democrats. he's also the most popular politician in the country. so why you would go after that, i don't understand. i think that's a big mistake. two, seth moulton's comment though, i would just say there's a campaign in baltimore, kamala harris is campaigning that i

don't think you can write off because i think she has shown moments where she can, you know, she can have good moments on a debate stage. i think you keep an eye out for her. she has to sort of get her narrative and message right. but don't write her off. >> there is a national campaign and then there is the campaign that actually matters is the campaign in iowa where the first contest happens and if you don't win there, suddenly electability goes out the window. heidi przybyla, thank you for being with us for a little bit of time. always awesome to have you. we will be right back for a little good-bye. ood-bye.

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we got a reminder, a special all in with chris hayes live with a live in-studio audience here tonight at 8:00 eastern. everyone, whether you're religious or not religious, i call that you pray. my thanks to doug, reverend al, kim. i am john heilemann in for nicolle wallace. my week here is done. "mtp daily" with chuck todd starts right now. ♪ if it's friday, it's an emergency on edge over the economy, president trump's unpredictable and dangerous behavior got even more unpredictable and perhaps dangerous today. world leaders are on edge as well, not just over the economy but over president trump at how he will act at