well, that will do it for me. thanks for watching this past couple of hours msnbc live. i'll be back next saturday at 2:00 p.m. you can follow me on facebook, twitter. the news continues right now with richard lui and a busy evening ahead. >> kendis, you couldn't remember the number of hours you were here. >> as i was saying 2:00 p.m. eastern time, am i back at 6:00 p.m. next saturday? who knows. >> okay, thanks a lot. good to see you. i'm richard lui live from msnbc headquarters right here in new york city. thanks for being with us. let's get right to the breaking news. all smiles in the family photo of g7 leaders released a short time ago, but behind the scenes it's a very different story. iranian foreign minister javad

zarif crashed the party at the g7 today in a move that has apparently blindsided president trump and other leaders there at the g7. one white house official telling nbc news no one expected it, and it came as a surprise there. zarif, who was personally sanctioned by the united states just last month, came at the behest of french president emmanuel macron. here is what u.s. treasury secretary steve mnuchin told my colleague hallie jackson about that. >> did you have a conversation with him? should he be here? >> the president has said before to the extent iran wants to sit down and negotiate, he would not set preconditions to those negotiations. >> now zarif did not meet with any u.s. officials while he was there. meanwhile, the president's own rhetoric already creating problems for the u.s. delegation. >> any thoughts on escalating the trade war with china? >> do you have second thoughts about escalating -- >> i have second thoughts about everything. >> those comments immediately put the administration in

cleanup mode. treasure secretary mnuchin insisting what the president meant there is he was having second thoughts about not being tough enough with tariffs. more on that in a little bit. and the u.s. and japan have announced they have reach and agreement on trade. president trump telling reporter, quote, this is a tremendous deal for the united states. it's a really tremendous deal for our farmers. let's go right to our nbc news white house reporter shannon pettypiece on the ground in france very close to biarritz. let's get straight to what happened with the iranian foreign minister. did we get that right? is that the read-out right now on the ground? >> so what we know so far is we were told by senior administration official that the president did have a heads up on this, but we don't know how long. possibly as far back as yesterday. we do know that the president and emmanuel macron had a 90-minute lunch. it's possible it came up in there, but we haven't been able to nail that down.

but the rest of the white house, the staff, other u.s. officials were completely caught off guard by this. they were telling us they were shocked, and many of them were furious because they felt this was something that the french had sprung on them. there was already tensions between the u.s. and the french even before this happened. we've been hearing from white house officials, complaining they felt the french were intentionally giving them a hard time on everything from logistics to securities there was a sense the french wanted to move the meeting toward climate change in a direction the white house didn't want to go to, and they weren't giving enough emphasize to trade and the economy like the white house wanted. so when this surprise visit came by the iranian foreign minister, and certainly a surprise to all of us journalists, it sort of ignited a bit of a spark with the administration. but as you noted, that was just one sort of turbulent moment in this day. we had earlier in the day administration officials trying to play cleanup with this idea that the president had second thoughts about his trade war on china, making some kind of

strange statements. it was unclear to us whether he understood the question, but he certainly was said multiple times and answered the questions multiple times of whether he was having second thoughts on china. so it, as many of us expected has been an unexpected g7 summit, just as it was last year. >> shannon, talk about last night in the dinner. the readout there was it was not necessarily a kumbahyah meeting as they were breaking bread, and president trump was at odds with the other members of the g7 at that meal. >> well, president trump has really been trying to today to play up the camaraderie and the unity among these leaders, talking about how great the dinner was last night. he really is taking on a different tone today to emphasize not this sort of adversarial relationship but friendly relationship. we've seen in public in addition to below the service that there are a lot of deep tensions on

north korea, on iran obviously and certainly on trade and tariffs. >> shannon, i want to bring in a couple of big brains to join your big brain here. we've got mike mcfaul, international affairs analyst as well as ron insana, cnbc senior analyst. thank you both for being here. again, mike mcfall, ambassador as international affairs, analyst for us as well. ambassador, what do you make of what shannon is telling us that has happened just within the last 24 hours. of course, right in front of us is what happened with the iranian foreign minister with a surprise visit, but only meeting with one of the leaders there as all the other members of the g7 were not too far away? >> yeah, i don't like it, to be honest. i think it's a stunt. i don't understand what president macron thinks he was accomplishing with that. he can meet with zarif any time, anywhere. the fact that he could not get other leaders to sit down with

zarif i think undermines the idea that the p5 plus 1, the original folks, governments that negotiated the iran nuclear deal, many who are represented at the g7, that they were not willing to sit down or were not there underscores the disunity. i think it was a stunt that didn't accomplish anything. >> in addition to that, ron, we were discussing on the intro to the segment potential deal with japan and the administration saying it's good for farmers. what is this potential deal? and what does it mean? >> i don't think we've seen any details yet, richard. what we've seen also in the public report so far is that prime minister abe pushed back to a final extent that no deal is finalized yet. the u.s., since i've been in the business in the mid 1990s has been arguing with japan about importing rice, for instance, where we've had very little success in growing that market. social autos are on the table. the president has threatened to place tariffs on european and jamz autos. don't know if that's been

resolved. until we get a specific readout on this, i'm not quite sure what the value of it, particularly since prime minister abe has not yet suggested it is a completed deal. so it leafs some questions going into tomorrow. and the markets have been looking for any good news on trade given what transpired on friday. >> another headline coming out of biarritz is the uk. as we look at brexit in front of us, not too far away, in october, right, that boris johnson was trying to make -- was trying to build relationships obviously with donald trump, he has been called the donald trump of the uk in the past. how was that going? how did their meet-up go? >> they appear to have a pretty cordial meeting. the president was very complimentary of boris johnson, said he is the right man for the job, that he would be a fantastic prime minister. it was recognize the see, though, that johnson wasn't afraid to speak up and express his disagreement with the idea of a trade war with china and

putting this use of tariffs. the president said that no leaders had raised any concerns to the president about his trade war with china, something to that effect. and johnson stepped in and said well, i'd like to sheepishly basically say that we are for free trade, and we think everything should be taken down a notch, and we're not for tariffs. so even though he has internal displayed a warm relationship with the president he was not afraid to put a bit of daylight between them on that issue there. >> you were making note of that in your statement a moment ago, the idea of multilateralism and where are we at today in 2019 in this month of august. where are we at with multilateralism, as we see, as you were critical of, emmanuel macron, the leader of france, basically using a play out of what donald trump might have done himself. >> well, i just think we're at a

pretty critical time given the global economy. we're at a critical time in dealing with china, russia, and iran. and in the old days, you would expect the g7 to be united and to have a common position as to how we manage those really tough issues. and, you know, that we're hoping there won't be any drama at this meeting. the bar is set pretty low. and it just makes me worry that we do not have leadership in the free world. i mean, who is the leader at the g7 of the free world right now? it's not clear to me. i think that is dangerous, especially given what's going on in the global economy today. >> ron, the leading economies of the world. four out of $10, if you have will, in terms of gdp is represented in this group, yet many of them, as you know, because you follow these numbers are having trouble on their own. just not the united states, where we've been talking about the potential concerns of a recession, but you can go down

the list. obviously a big concern germany, that is facing some recessionary pressures. >> germany's economy contracted 3/10 of pound%. the global manufacturing sector is in recession. nine major economies are in or near a contraction around the world. china is weakening further. and the president -- or the clarification of the president's statements today may not be helpful to the markets tomorrow in so far as he preferred to have gone farther with tariffs than he decided to go on friday. that's not a positive for markets. and it's certainly doesn't send any clear signal that we'll see resolution between the u.s. and china any time soon. china has also suggested it could further retaliate as well. and to ambassador mcfaul's point, and i respect what he says. i watch him quite frequently. the thing about the g7 today versus the g5 in the 1980s, it grew out to the g20 before it contracted back to this level, there was generally unanimity very carefully choreographed

communiques which we will not see from this meeting today. and generally speaking, and agenda that was preset and acted on, at least in its formative years and the years when the g7 or the g8 were working quite fine. that's absent. so without that leadership, and the fact that emmanuel macron could pull a stunt like this, imagine this having been done to ronald reagan or george h.w. bush who in diplomatic sense were quite large players. this would have been a disaster. the fact they tried to pull this off with president trump shows an enormous lack of respect for the united states. >> and the concern here, ambassador, would be if you're down and out, if the g7 as a collaborative group is weak, should something happen in one of the major economies around the world, are we strong enough as a group to react well? the great recession was an example where the collaboration was good, and the world economies were able to do something about the great recession.

>> that's a great point. and i think if there is major -- there is a lot happening in the next year, right, with brexit, with the recessionary tendencies in many countries with the chinese contraction, with the potential trade war between china and the united states escalating, that we are not united with our closest allies. remember, all these countries are our allies as well. i think it makes for a dangerous time. and i wish it were otherwise. i wish we were back to the old days when these meetings m happened, we all knew we were on the same stage. >> and richard, we had common policies we would put in place. central banks would get together and mutually cut spending rates. now there is no coordination of global economic policy, and that is a real risk if we all face recession at the same time. and so then that creates maybe more turbulence and financial markets and can create sort of a domino effect if you don't have all these players on the same page. >> and i think the macron move

today shows that these economies are trying to carve out their spaces in this space of the economic leadership worldwide. >> economic nationalism prevail. >> that's right. i think we're seeing perhaps here an indication of that. shannon pettypiece, mike mcfaul, ambassador, thank you so much. ron insana, we're going see you a little later. we'll talk concerns when it comes to consumers in the united states. coming up for you, massive fires continue to rage in the amazon, and now the brazil onmilitary is getting involved. u when liberty mutual customizes your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. wow. thanks, zoltar. how can i ever repay you? maybe you could free zoltar? thanks, lady. taxi! only pay for what you need.

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thanks for staying with us. puerto rico could be in the crosshairs of a new tropical storm gathering strength right now. nbc news meteorologist janice webb, it's number four for the season? >> number four. we're off to a kind of a slow start. we're already seeing the increase of the storm threat increase across the atlantic because we're talking about water temperatures that are currently in the upper 80s. it's allowing these storm systems to really gain some steam. let's check out what's happening right now. we're seeing sustained winds of up to 40 miles per hour. dorian is really having a hard time getting really organized here. but it's moving out of the west at about 14 miles per hour. what's really on our radar here for the next 36 hours is puerto

rico, hispaniola and the lesser antilles islands. monday we're going to see the winds picking up to about 50 miles per hour. i do think the storm system stays well offshore, not becoming a hurricane near puerto rico. it's well to the southeast here. but it is still the storm surge and the high surf that we're going to see in that area. what i can forecast for you for hispaniola, puerto rico, potentially up to 6 to 8 inches with the storm system. now, as it makes its way aacross, we're hoping that it splits apart. it could potentially go back into the gulf and gain more steam. so watching this closely. >> i will stick with your hope. meteorologist janessa webb. thank you so much, janessa. the amazon is finally receiving aid from brazil's government as wildfires continue to rage in the rain forest known as the earth's lungs. planes were seen dropping thousands of gallons of water over the rain forest that has been ravaged by fires at an

alarming rate just this year. brazil's president originally downplayed concern but changed course friday, saying the government had zero tolerance for environmental crimes and ordering the military to combat the wildfires. the reversal came after global protests, boycott threats and calls for action from world leaders. pope francis even called for prayers today for the rain forest he called vital to the planet. >> fires in the amazon have been breaking out at a record rate. nearly 73,000 fires have been detected in the amazon just since january. that's an over 80% increase from last year. joining us now from manaus,

brazil is nbc news' kerry sanders. >> we're in manaus, brazil, part of the vast jungle. 2/3 of the amazon in brazil. and now the entire world saying whoa, what's going on? you can see the beauty of this area, but it is also threatened, threatened since the 1970s, quite frankly, when they started to deforest it, in part for agriculture. but it was really in the 1980s that people began to take notice because of the destruction. and now we've reached what scientists believe could be a tipping point if another 3% of the jungle here is destroyed, the lungs of the earth, as this is called, may go to the point of no return. now in addition to agriculture, let's go over there. you can see that's the city of manaus here in brazil. population in the 70s was about 500,000. now there are more than two million. people who move in from the jungle for a better life, closer

access to things like medical care. but the majority of what we're seeing happen, and take a look at these fires here, what we're looking at here is the final stages of the deforestation. the folks here who decide they're going to turn this into agricultural property take a chain. and the chain is stretched between two bulldozers that then go down. and as they go down, it knocks down the trees. and the trees sit there for three or four months, they dry out, and then they're lit on fire. that's those fires that you're looking at there. it's not only the loss of the trees, but it is the release of the carbon from those fires that is of the greatest concern. and ultimately, the threat here is that scientists say if we were to lose this, if the amazon were to disapierce, we in the united states would also begin to see shifts in our climate. in the amazon, where scientists say we have now reached a crisis, i'm kerry sanders, nbc news. >> kerry sander, thank you so

much for that report. coming up for you, there is a new republican jumping in to challenge president trump.

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well, turning the race to the white house now. president trump will be facing a

second competitor for the republican ticket. we just learned that today. former illinois congressman joe walsh announced this morning he is officially running for president. he is challenging donald trump in the gop primary race. here he was last hour on msnbc talking about trump's record while being questioned about his own. >> he officially lost me at helsinki when he stood in front of the world and said i'm with putin and not my own people. >> that was even after charlottesville. so he didn't lose you with the comments with good people on both side in charlottesville? >> and again, i defend him sometimes when i believe he deserves defense. i think he was so damn inarticulate, he botched those comments at charlottesville. >> yeah. >> but look, i'm not going to hide from you. i think the guy stokes bigotry. i think he stokes racism. but i think it's all about trump. i don't think he is a racist. i think there were plenty of times when i said things that

were ugly and hateful. >> not that it's ugly, you called barack obama a muslim. >> absolutely. unforgivable. >> you doubled down on it last year. do you still think he is a muslim? >> god. no. >> and is that a bad thing? >> why? >> if he were. >> not at all. i probably sent out over 40,000 tweets over the past five years. are you going to find 200 to 300 to find out what are you doing? the ones that deserve an apology, i'd apologize. i'd own them all. when have you ever heard this president apologize for a damn thing? never, okay. never. now, you can accuse me of i'm weak because i apologize? no. i'm trying to own this stuff. i apologize for my role in putting what i believe is an unfit con man in the white house. now, what do you want to call that? i voted for him. i'm sorry i voted for him. i'm sorry that it's led to this. >> now walsh joins former

massachusetts governor bill weld as the second republican challenger. weld this morning on msnbc before walsh officially announced he was running was calling on more republicans to step up to trump. >> i think the president is moving towards the loony tunes edge of his internal musings. he seems to be listening to his inner demons and the fear and anger that he so obviously feels inside his own head. he is the president of the united states, and we got to take that seriously and stand up and point out the emperor doesn't have any new clothes. that's what i'm hoping that walsh and sanford are going to help me to do. >> let's talk about the democrats now. they are campaigning across the country. they're trying to grab voters to push out trump from the left. and all this, and they're focusing on wednesday. that deadline to qualify for the next round of debates, it is quickly approaching. so far, ten candidates have qualified for the september

debates. they are biden, booker, beauty jeg, castro, harris, o'rourke, sanders, warren, klobuchar and yang. tom steyer and tulsi gabbard are reportedly the closest now getting into the group of ten making it 12 potentially. we turn to vaughn hilliard, joining us from north carolina following kamala harris. allie is in seattle, washington. we'll start with shaquille brewster following bernie sanders in kentucky. and shaq, he has been talking about tariffs and a lot of other things too. >> that's right. right now he is playing to senate majority leader mitch mcconnell. he is here not to take on his other 2020 rivals, but to completely go up against senate majority leader mcconnell. he is making the point that he is coming here less as a 2020 presidential candidate and more as a senator, asking mcconnell

to take up the house legislation that is stalled in the u.s. senate. he is talking about the $15 an hour minimum wage. he is talking about election security reform, and even the universal background checks. and this is a state that is very confident state, but this is an area that is much more liberal in this very confident area. listen to what one lady, one supporter of sanders had to say. she was wearing a moscow mitch shirt. listen to what she told me. >> well, could we maybe start with the 100 bills that are sitting on his desk that would benefit our country that he refuses to pass? can we go back to the obama presidency when his whole purpose in life was to not pass any of the bills that obama supported? i don't feel that he is looking out for the constituents of the commonwealth. . >> and senator sanders started this trip to louisville,

kentucky by picketing and joining at&t picket line of workers who were looking to have very position in their collective bargaining negotiations with saturday. senator sanders does this regularly using his campaign infrastructure to lend a voice to workers. he released a big pro bargaining, pro union plan earlier this week. he is taking the fight on not only for union workers, but he is trying to take the fight straight to mitch nicmcconnell his backyard. >> thank you. allie vitale in seattle, washington, elizabeth warren seeing some surge in recent polls there. and she's potentially here on the west coast in a nice space for her as she battles for the left. >> a nice space for her as she battles for the west. we're in a big crowd right now in a public park in the shadow of the seattle space needle, and elizabeth warren is still about

an hour from coming on stage. we have a lot of people getting settled in ready to hear her speak in seattle. this is actually one in a string rallies across the country that we've seen elizabeth warren getting big notable crowds. i'm with her regularly on the campaign trail. usually she is out with a few hundred people. today we're in the thousand, and that's after she was in minnesota and then california, drawing 12,000, and then about 5,000 or 6,000 people respectively. and a lot of conversation that we've been having in this crowd today is what does it take to win. what does it take to be electable, both in a primary and in a general election. elizabeth warren, of course, has earned this banner as the candidate with a plan for that. and i hear that echoed back from a lot of the voters that i talked to in my conversations here. but the interesting thing is what it means to be electable. some people say it might be a gendered trope so to speak about how can a woman go up against donald trump. others say it's important to them to have a candidate who they're passionate and excited

about. so we have a wide range of opinions here as we're getting ready to hear elizabeth warren on the stump right behind me in a little while. >> from ali we go to vaughn hilliard. vaughn, it's been a tough week. if we were to summarize it looks at the polls, a little bit of a dip for that candidate. >> i think the conversation that we'll be continuing to have over the next several months is the soft support there are for the candidates, particularly joe biden at the top of polls right now. you know, we've been in north carolina about the last 24 hours with kamala harris. she spoke to a prominent civil right organization's banquet last night in durham and attended an ame church in durham this morning. by and large the conversation i had with folks around the support of joe biden, and particularly older black voter, and the number i talked to said in no way is that solid support. they do look at joe biden as a long-time civil rights leader saying a lot of the progress that has been made has been made on the shoulders of individuals like joe biden.

and at the same time that. >> said the more that kamala harris comes around, the more that they hear her speak, they said it's important that she goes to places like she did this morning, the ame church there, st. joseph's ame church over in durham, because, you know, there was a conversation that she picked up on last night, kamala harris, telling the crowd of several hundred black voters there that, you know, that republicans, donald trump may call it identity politics at play, but she said it's important to speak to issues particularly in these communities of color. she goes whether it be on the wealth gap between races, whether it be the disproportionate rate at which black students come out of college with debt. there needs to be focus on streamlining a process for teacher, black teachers to go into school. those are the conversations that democrats, including herself need to have and be very forward about. not only in the primary ahead, but during the general election next year. richard? >> great to have all three of you. our nbc road warriors, shaq

brewster, vaughn hilliard and ali vitale. a new polling, this polling finds that, well, americans are angry, a deep and boiling anger to be exact. 70% of americans say they are angry at the political establishment because, quote, our political system seems to only be working for the insiders with money and power. 29% of republicans and 54% of democrats said a feeling of anger at the political establishment defined them very well. that's a 10 percentage point swing in the opposite direction for both parties compared to 2015 with democrats more angry, republicans less angry. the poll also found some mixed emotions on the changing face of america. when asked about whether an increase in diversity and tolerance is a step forward or backwards, 43% said some of both, an ambivalence white house officials like stephen miller continue to try to tap into.

>> what americans don't want to see are children being smuggled in record numbers across our border to take advantage of a loophole created by our court system. americans want to see an immigration system that doesn't put children in harm's way. the only way to accomplish that end is to make sure that smuggling a child does not guarantee entry or admission into the country. >> joining me now in the senior vice president for social justice at the new school, maya wiley also with me, tiana low. maya, it's a weird headliner i had to begin our segment with. americans are angry, and we're seeing the numbers that say 7 out of 10 of us are feeling this way. why? >> well, i think we have several indicators of why. we have seen a 33% increase in hate, both hate groups and hate crimes that is a number that was on the down swing before the

campaign season began in 2016. and it has increased year-over-year over the last four years. we are seeing a much more fraught debate about who belongs here and how we treat people. and, you know, frankly, that's part of why you saw the differentiation between the republican number on anger and the democratic number on anger. >> opposite? >> they're opposite. and one of the reasons is because of things like immigration and the sense that because we have a changing demographic in this country, somehow people who are white are under attack and have been on the defensive and people of color are somehow being privilege and benefitted. the numbers do not bear that out. if we looked at health care or jobs or wealth, but nonetheless, that perception exists. if that perception exists, one of the things that that drives is if you are in particular a white republican is the sense that well, now things are getting a little better for us because we have a president who is paying attention to us as

white americans. and if you are a democrat, whether you're white or people of color and you feel that that's dangerous, that it's dangerous to think that way, you're getting angrier and angrier about how people are being talked about and treated. >> and tiana, building on what maya said here, when we look at the opposite numbers on the political spectrum, why do we see and build on what maya said certainly here? why are we seeing this opposite view? >> so naturally, with republicans in power, at least nominally, there is going to be a little bit of a difference in terms of perception of the country there. >> is a big difference according to this poll. >> yeah. i mean, if you look at the underlying factors, support for interracial marriage, support for living next to a neighbor of a different race, those numbers have all been progressing in a wonderful direction. but when things like immigration policy are becoming so racialized on both sides, then of course it's going to lead to the sort of dissonance. and when you see the numbers

about the establishment, does it still serve average americans, no. i think there are some elements that are obviously very partisan in which we absorb that. especially when it comes to the main aspects of the trump agenda. but if you look at things like the college admissions scandal and the jeffrey epstein case, these are cases where americans are rightly galvanizing. and that's not really a partisan aspect. but when it comes to things that are racialized like border policy. you have prominent presidential candidates describing basic enforcement and opposition to catch and release as resisting itself. these are not terms of rhetoric that are helping to cool down the political discourse. >> and i want to add in maya. certainly respond to this. a couple of other numbers that came out of the poll today, our second full screen here, women under 50, 48%, 46%.

49% hispanics. you can see the sift since 2015. >> just to say a couple of things. the reality is we have decades of polling unfortunately that show that many white americans are completely wrong about how well people of color are doing in this country. and that has become a generational divide. for instance, in 2012, if you were white american and you were 50 years old or a senior, you actually thought that the changing of america, betweening more latinos, the growth of immigrants of color was somehow a negative thing for american values. this is the same rhetoric that we started to hear then in the 2015 and 2016 campaign season. and there is research that shows if you believe that you have been outnumbered by race, that you can go in two directions,

either if you have more interaction by race, you can become much more, you can see people much more as people. but if you have leaders that say things like mexicans are rapists and criminals, and if you have this what the research does not support, which is that somehow children are being smuggled over the border and it's really about trafficking and ignore the conditions for children in detention facilities, that it actually has some highly racialized language to it. it is polarizing by race. and our leaders can change that. >> and you just saw the number here, maya. if they're feeling it, people of color, 74%, hispanics i believe the number is almost 5 out of 10 when it comes to african americans. 86%. 56% overall. communities of color are feeling exactly what you're describing. t tiana, another bit of learning today is about how america is

becoming more diverse. and the reflection of those who were answering the poll stepped forward 40%, stepped backward green%. a mix of both. and that might be something that would be surprising to us here. 43% say some of both. step forward and back when you look at the diversity in america. >> well, if you consider the wording of the question, if we're discussing more racial diversity in the country, undoubtedly that's a good thing. we are in multicultural, multi-ethnic democracy. but if you're talking about cultural differences, thing is a very valid fear that when see we see areas like france and in the uk where you have a lot of mass migration and very little assimilation and it increases racial host estimates. it's something with you see with the rise of the far right in france especially. and i don't think americans who are not racist at all want that to happen here. and so, yes, it is great when we have more immigrants from a wide

array of countries come to this country. but we don't want them to remain stratified socially. >> right. and what we need our leaders to do is instead of saying all muslims are terrorists and all mexicans are rapists and criminals, whose culture? it's all of our culture. america has always had a range of culture. it's actually not about culture. it's whether we're pitted against each other. >> and language counts? >> absolutely. >> maya wiley, tiana lowe, thank you so much. and have a good sunday. we'll be right back. we'll be ri. usaa took care of her car rental, and getting her car towed. all i had to take care of was making sure that my daughter was ok. if i met another veteran, and they were with another insurance company, i would tell them, you need to join usaa because they have better rates, and better service. we're the gomez family... we're the rivera family... we're the kirby family, and we are usaa members for life. get your auto insurance quote today.

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so shop now. will president trump's increased tariffs on china are set to take effect one week from today. this comes as a new poll from nbc news and "the wall street journal" found a majority of americans feel anxious and uncertain because the economy still feels unpredictable. the september tariffs could affect prices on over 100 items including clothing items, ovens and stoves, beef and chicken, cheese, curtains, just to name a few. a jp analysis estimates this latest round will cost the average american household $1,000 a year. however, white house economic adviser larry kudlow said today that the economic impact on americans would be small. compared to china. >> there's virtually in question in our mind that the largest part of the economic burden of the tariffs has fallen on china. the largest part.

perhaps, by a ratio of 4-5-1. to the extent that there is an impact on american businesses and consumers, it is a small impact. >> back with us, cnbc senior analyst ron insana, the $1,000 is a lot of money for folks. >> put that against the backdrop that most americans don't have $4,000 in the bank for a family emergency, so, yeah, that's more than they don't have. in other words. and, yeah, it's, you know, roughly $800 -- $80 a month, i should say, and that's a lot of money for some families and would disagree with my good friend, larry kudlow, that while the chinese are certainly bearing the burden of this trade war, it's still a global economy, irrespective of what anyone may want to say, so as china weakens, germany's weakening almost falling into recession, most of europe is very weak. this is a global nomphenomenon going to weaken the u.s. i argue if we keep the tariffs in place or escalate it, we'll

be in recession next year. >> let's talk about what consumers in america are feeling. we have the nbc news poll that came out today and i want to look at consumer sentiment. when you look at consumer sentiment july through august, you can see that it is down by six points. and when we look -- from "meet the press" and the data download, thanks to chuck todd for this, that along with, we look at how the university of michigan tracks this, is this the first indication that we're starting to feel as americans the effect of these tariffs. >> well, we're coming off very high levels so consumer confidence has been strong until recently so it's dipped. business confidence has been less strong. you'll see that first. businesses feel the impact of disruptions before consumers do. it becomes increasingly worrisome if consumers do start to feel the pursestrings tighten or feel that their job is at risk. >> yeah, the question is as we now are facing as i was just mentioning a week from now another round of tariffs, look at jobs created, when you look

at april to march of -- one-year time span, down 20%. >> a half million jobs. >> it's a half million jobs. i'll add on do that also from "meet the press" the gross domestic product. and we see that 3% growth in 2018 adjusted to 2.5%. below that magic number that you have used so much in your career, 3% is ideal number, right. >> it is if you're running a budget deficit that's less than 3% of gdp. >> now 2019 could be less if it's adjusted by the same margin. >> yeah, we don't know. right now gdp is tracking at about 2.3% to 2.5%, again, the impa october the tariffs, impact on businesses, impact on businesses could reduce that number. >> what's it mean to consumers when we look at something like that? >> means higher prices first and could mean layoffs later or in the opposite order. really depends on how businesses deal with this. if they absorb the higher cost, consumers won't necessarily feel the pinch. but employees might because as

they absorb higher costs and their profit margins shrink they have to do something to mange the difference which could mean layoffs and software to replace people. >> >> what are you going two watto be watching to see how the tariffs affect everyday americans? >> i want to watch stock index futures tonight, uncertainty of what the president meant in his comments today at the g7. >> and friday. >> did he regret, in fact, the trade war with china or regret not raising tariffs more? >> right. >> the white house came out today and said he doesn't currently having any intention of forcing u.s. businesses to leave china which he hereby ordered on friday. that could be a positive. think given the lack of clarity, richard, we're seeing coming out of the president and the white house about these issues may still leave the markets a little bit up in the air. we also have a jobs number coming out on friday which will be a critical number for the fed. and the market. and as you know, the president's been criticizing the federal reserve quite openly over the last several days and weeks. >> this is politically important. it's important to families across the country. if there were to be a slowdown, a recession, when might that

happen? what's sort of the window that you're seeing when looking at analysts? >> the bond market signals we're getting and the people taked to who follow the signals quite closely would suggest mid 20 20 would be the most likely time the trade war continues, deepens and involves europe and japan further, we'll see on the latter. if all these activities come together and the trade war gets more global, then by the middle of next year, there's a good chance the bond market's been sending that signal, that we'll be in recession. >> cnbc senior analyst, pro of pros, ron insana, thank you for stopping by. all righty. that will do it for me this week. join me back here next weekend. next on "politicsnation" an evolving water problem. phil murphy joins reverend al sharpton about how they plan to protect one of the city's most

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good evening, and welcome to "politicsnation." tonight's lead, racial report card. when president trump was in france trying to make good with foreign leaders, new polling suggests that here at home, deep splits persist in the age of trump.