that is our broadcast. brian will be back next week. thank you for being with us and good night from nbc news headquarters in new york. rachel has the night off. she will be back next week. as we head into this holiday weekend, all eyes are on hurricane dorian. which is beating a path toward florida and gaining strength as it goes. the warm waters of the atlantic are cranking up the storm. in the last half hour, dorian was upgraded to a category 4. it has sustained winds over 130 miles an hour. the latest models have dorian making landfall late monday night or early tuesday morning. but where it hits and how much destruction it causes are open questions. for now, the entire east coast

of florida, all the way up to georgia, are in the danger zone. joining us now with the latest forecast is nbc news meteorologist bill karens. what is the latest? >> so much is changing and so quickly. we knew this storm would become this category 4, maybe a 5 in the days ahead. the big question was where is it going to go. big changes with that that i'm going to get to. i have to show you how impressive the storm is. i zoomed in close. these are one minute images from a satellite. we compile them together. it's a three-hour loop. this is as powerful a form as you will see. incredible. it's three days away from land. that's where we want the powerful storms. not like last year why michael intensified before it went onshore. i'm okay with it being this intense right now. as we mentioned, 130 mile per hour winds. 600 miles away from south

florida. let's get into the good stuff. let's get into the positive stuff. this is our latest upgrade updated computer models. these come in every six hours. all of a sudden, these lines, which yesterday were going straight through central florida, all of a sudden we have one, two, three, four of these which never make landfall. the hurricane center saw this trend with the european model earlier, now our american model. the storm taking its turn further out to sea. right now, the cone of uncertainty goes from charleston south of miami and includes all areas towards tallahassee. this trend is our friend. we want this to go offshore. i don't care if we have a cat 5 that's off the coast. for our friends in the northern bahamas, these lines are close to you. you will get a direct hit from a powerful hurricane. they are getting out of there. we would like to avoid that for our friends here in areas up the coast. in case it doesn't make that turn, they have issued the first mandatory evacuations starting

sunday morning for the barrier islands, low lying areas, places you would expect it evacuate first. we have to prepare in case this is a category 4 as it moves onshore. we are still at least a glimmer of hope we can avoid this multi-billion dollar weather disaster. here is our american model. it brings along the kennedy space center. it does bring it onshore. look how late the timing is. we keep delaying this thing. that's actually good. the further we delay it, the better chance of going off the coast. this is 2:00 a.m. wednesday now. now we are looking at saturday all clear, sunday all clear. weather going downhill the end of monday, maybe tuesday hurricane conditions on the coast. we keep delaying this more and more. it gives us more time. hopefully it can change. the only thing that's not the good news for our friends in savannah, charleston, up through myrtle beach, outer banks, this is the region now that could deal with a powerful storm. it won't be a cat 4 but it could be a category 1 or 2. we have to watch you. this is wednesday, thursday into next week. joy, you get the idea. we're going to respect this thing. the unpredictability of the path, it's a huge storm right

now, the category 4. we will wait and see where that turn goes. this is the cone of uncertainty. if you are in that cone, you prepare for it as it's coming to you. >> quickly if i can ask, the lines before with the colors, european model that shows places it can go, is there a way to know which is more likely? can you explain the color coding? >> let me get back to that. that's the european model which was the first one. i can reverse through the maps. the lines that we watch here with all of the lines, we have a lot of weather computers that come up with forecasts.

what they do is, there are different agencies that do some of them. this is the hurricane wharf that has a special model for them. a lot of these lines, they have grades on them to show you which are more accurate than others. some of the ones that i look at the most is hurricane wharf, the yellow line. that's popular. that bun does bring it onshore. the american model, which is along the coast but doesn't make landfall. canadian model, they have a model. we have japan has one, uk. a lot of people have these models. they take the same data. they have little different things that go into the models. we look for -- we don't look specifically at this. we look for the trend in all of these. the trend yesterday was south, people in miami were starting to get worried, and heading through central florida. now that trend is slower, stall it out and then make that big bend. if it can bend out to sea, it would really save so many people. >> my last question to you would be, what does it depend on? is it the warmth of the water? what actually could cause it to either hit or maybe veer off? >> if you pay attention to the summertime, you may have heard

the bermuda high. it's high pressure in the summertime that sets up over the top. it can provide heat that happens on the east coast. there's a high pressure system there. that's steering the storm. i will go over here. bermuda is located over my hand. the flow around that is going like this. that's why the storm can't hook and go to the north. that high pressure is what's steering the storm. if that weakens, which now it looks like it's going to by the time we get to tuesday and wednesday, it stops pushing the storm towards florida. that high pressure doesn't have the strength to push it. that's why it's going to slow down and could devastate the

northern bahamas. we will see how far west it gets. we have two days to go. if the high pressure systems trends stronger, it's back into florida. if it trends weaker, then we can hook this thing and head it to the north and out to sea. that's the key is this area of high pressure. your government taxes are paying for an aircraft to fly up in the atmosphere, they take measures that go into our computers to try to give you the most accurate information. we can't measure every inch of atmosphere. we don't have the technology. when we get these information from the aircraft flying out here, it goes into the models. it gives us a more accurate forecast. >> bill, we learned something tonight, thank you very much. i appreciate that.

thank you for explaining that. the state of florida unfortunately has a labor day hurricane history. in 2016, it was hurricane hermaine. in 2004, a storm the size of texas. in '85, hurricane elena. in '79, hurricane david ripped through florida with winds that could peel the metal roof off of a building. the worst labor day hurricane happened before they gave storms human names, back in 1935. what became known as the great labor day hurricane decimated the florida keys. it was so powerful, it derailed trains and wound up as the eighth deadliest hurricane in continental u.s. history. at least seven hurricanes have hit florida over a labor day weekend. it looks like the state might have to add one more to the tally. hurricane dorian is on track to hit florida this labor day. dorian is slowly churning

through the atlantic where warm waters are turbo charging the storm. as we have been reporting, just in the last hour, it was upgraded to a category 4, it has sustained winds over 130 miles an hour. dorian is expected to make landfall late monday or early tuesday. the precise path of the storm has been hard to predict. the latest models have it shifting to the northeast as you heard from bill. the national hurricane center predicts life-threatening storm surges and hurricane force winds. it's not clear where and when folks will have to evacuate. in miami where they are in the midst of a king tide, low lying areas have started to flood. if that doesn't have you sitting up and paying attention, how about this? this is dorian from space. all the glowing purple lights, that's pockets of lightning inside the hurricane. as rachel likes to say, buckle up. joining us is keith james, the mayor of west palm beach,

florida. thank you very much. i know it's very busy for you tonight. thank you for taking a little time to be with us here tonight. >> joy, thank you for having me. >> absolutely. we just heard bill talk about the unpredictability of the storm. there is a possibility, according to the lines that he showed us, that west palm beach and the palm beach area could be hit. since there are a couple extra prep days, this could hit 2:00 a.m. wednesday morning as bill was saying, what are you taking advantage of that extra time to do to prepare the city? >> what we are continuing to do is preach from the pulpit of preparedness. by that i mean, we are continuing to get the message out to residents that they need to prepare for this as a significant weather event. they need to stock up on the essentials, water, food, medicine, gasoline. if we have a couple of extra

days to do that stocking up, that's all the better. we are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. >> i lived through a few hurricanes living in florida 14 years. i remember going through wilma. it's scary. how are the stores handling it? one thing is when we went out to try to stock up, stores empty out quickly. all the water is gone. bread is gone. basics are gone. are stores going to have time to put fresh food and water in before tuesday? >> we are very optimistic that that will be the case. the stores have already started emptying out. the one thing about a hurricane is before the hurricane, it's nice weather. if we get a couple more days of nice weather, that should enable the major stores to stock up. again, what i don't want to happen is for residents to get complacent and say, it's never going to happen.

this is a major weather event. residents, please, take it seriously. >> the other issue that i can recall just from being down there was gas lines. people not being able to get gas for the car. if there is a major evacuation, is it better for people to go ahead and stock up on gas, stock up on extra gasoline? do you worry about long lines and thick lines of cars and people trying to get on the road as the store is coming in? >> we don't know what the evacuation plans are yet. palm beach county will be handling that and we will abide by those. the county handles it. the evacuation routes are outside of our city limits. gas lines have started. that's more advantage of having time is people will have an

opportunity to find a station. gas supplies are getting low as well. i'm happy to say that our governor has authorized the gas trucks to be escorted by the florida highway patrol. so they will be hustling into the various stations as well to restock. >> one of the things that i hear a lot of sort of commentary on from folks who worry about the state of immigration in this country is that people who are undocumented are sometimes afraid to flee. they are afraid to evacuate. they are afraid to participate in what would did he life saving measures because of their immigration status. can you please advise, what is -- do people who are undocumented and their families have anything to fear if they evacuate? would they be able to take advantage of the services that citizens are able to take advantage of in the event that the storm is as bad as it could be? >> absolutely. they are -- we are encouraging them to take advantage of shelters. if you are in an evacuation zone, absolutely not. we're not going to discriminate because someone is an immigrant. at this point, our highest priority is to save lives. we don't care what color, what country of origin those lives

are from. as the mayor, i'm concerned that every citizen, every resident of my city is safe and secure after this storm. >> thank you very much for saying that. keith james, the mayor of west palm beach, florida. >> one matter, if i may. >> yes, sir. >> i know my mother is watching. i apologize for being in an informal outfit. i have been working all day. mom, i'm sorry. i should have been in a suit and tie. she's a big fan of yours. >> thank you very much. tell her thank you. i hope you guys absolutely stay safe. you are right, my godmother who get on me if i wasn't dressed for tv. i'm sure your mom will understand. you are working hard. >> we will keep an eye on hurricane dorian tonight. all weekend long and into next week, too. we have a lot of political news to bring you tonight. a lot of stories ahead.

with the hurricane bearing down, donald trump canceled his trip to poland saying he is doing so to monitor the storm. because he pulled the plug on that trip, the president is conveniently enough skipping a meeting with another world leader that is raising eyebrows. more on that later in the show. rather than flying to europe, he took off to camp david but not before bragging about how prepared they were for hurricane dorian to hit puerto rico and he is not concerned about whether his private club, in the path of the storm, will got hit with the rest of the state. we have news about a story that this show has been following all week. the story of the trump administration suddenly telling immigrants who need life saving medical care they can no longer have a medical deferment from being deported, telling them they have 33 days to get out of the country. that story has continued to develop. we will get the latest from a member of congress who has been advocating for a constituent of his on this issue. we will look at the surprise horse race news of the week and

why senate republican mitch mcconnell seems antsy about his majority. all of that and more is ahead on the show tonight. please, stay with us. on car insurance. -what? ♪ -or maybe he didn't know. ♪ [ chuckles ] i'm done with this class. -you're not even enrolled in this class. -i know. i'm supposed to be in ceramics. do you know -- -room 303. -oh. thank you. -yeah. -good luck, everybody. -oh. thank you. -yeah. thatthere you are, mom!here. that's you? that does kinda look like our family. what are you wearing? ancestry has over 400,000 yearbooks from all across the country. start searching for your friends and family, free, at ancestry.com.

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we continue to keep an eye on hurricane dorian, which has

been upgraded to a category 4. the house judiciary committee canceled its plans to come back early from the summer recess to work on a package of gun control legislation, a plan they announced earlier in the month in the wake of mass shootings in texas and ohio. the committee will now have to squeeze in any new gun legislation along with everything else they have on their plate when the full house returns september 9. this is the same committee that's been asking for documents and testimony in an ongoing inquiry into whether to recommend impeaching the president. the list of things they may need to consider has been getting longer and longer. consider for a moment the week that donald trump has had, this one past week. it started with his largely incoherent performance at the g-7. he asked if he attended the meeting that was about climate change.

he responded by saying it hadn't happened and it was going to be next. it had just happened and he wasn't there. then the white house press secretary put out a formal statement explaining that the reason trump had not gone to the climate session was because instead he was having bilateral meetings with the leaders of india and germany. here is a picture of a climate meeting. there's the leader of germany. there's the leader of india. there is trump's empty chair. trump did not skip the meeting so he could meet with them. they were at the meeting. he wasn't there. then there was this worrying exchange. >> yeah, sure, i have second thoughts about everything. they had to go on tv to say the president hadn't heard the question or actually had meant the opposite of what you heard. there was this. >> china called last night our

top trade people. said, let's get back to the table. >> i asked, could you tell us about the calling you referred to? >> we have gotten two calls. very, very good calls. very productive calls. >> this is where the deep voice narrator says, in fact, there were no calls. aides conceded the phone calls trump described didn't happen the way he said they did. two officials said trump was eager to project optimism that might boost markets and conflated commends from china's vice premiere with direct communication from the chinese. if the president of the united states lied about phone calls with china in order to boost the markets, that seems bad. it's probably better than him just making up phone calls or

having said calls take place only in his mind. pick your poison. speaking of white house aides, cleaning up weird pronouncements from the president, here was one headline. white house clarifies that melania has not met kim jong-un. the first lady has gotten top know kim jong-un and she would agree, he is a man with a country that has tremendous potential. several hours later, as the president and first lady flew back to washington, the press secretary issued a statement. the president feels like she's gotten to know him. okay. then, of course, trump wrapped up the g-7 by using his presidential podium to do an infomercial for one of his golf clubs. >> with doral, we have magnificent buildings, we call

them bungalows. they each hold from 50 to 70 very luxurious rooms with magnificent rooms. we have incredible conference rooms, incredible restaurants. it's like such a natural. we have many hundreds of acres so that in terms of parking, in terms of all of the things that you need, the ball rooms are among the biggest in florida and the best. >> we have the biggest ball rooms in florida. how could you not host the next gathering of world leaders there? putin would be so comfortable there. unless you think that was a wildly inappropriate sales pitch

or off the cuff trump thought, the official white house twitter feed captioned those as an official comment. which would be fantastically unconstitutional if the president were to force foreign leaders to put money directly into his pocket by making them stay at his own hotel. the rest of the week brought news that donald trump has ordered his subordinates to seize private land and even break the law if they have to in order to get his border wall built. he will pardon them afterwards if they get into trouble. the news that his administration is ordering the deportation of sick children receiving life saving medical care in the united states. we will have more on that later in the show. today, trump issued this strange and confounding tweet that appears to contain a u.s. government satellite image of a damaged iranian rocket launch site. there's been no explanation from the white house. experts tell nbc news it's likely a classified image. nbc's andrea mitchell reported, legally, the president has the authority to declassify what he wants. but that does not answer the

question of why he did and whether it's wise. outside experts are dumfounded. asked this evening where it came from, he said, you will have to figure that one out yourself. okay. i know every week is clown car full of crazy these days. it's easy for it to start feeling like background noise, really unsettling background noise. if democrats on the house judiciary committee have said that some of the things that trump has done just this past week, like his move to hold the next g-7 at his golf club and his offer of pardons to officials who break the wall, that some things ought to be part of their investigation into whether to recommend impeachment. the number of house democrats in favor keeps rising. it's 134 lawmakers, well over half of the democratic caucus. consider this latest headline. let's compare donald trump's week to the impeachment articles

brought against richard nixon, clinton and johnson. if one were to consider the articles of impeachment against the three sitting presidents who have faced impeachment proceedings, not only has trump achieved all of them, he achieved most of them in under a week. here is the question. if the house judiciary committee has to investigate all of the president's potentially impeachment offenses before it can recommend impeachment and the president keeps committing new potentially impeachable offenses every week, how does this end? joining us is a member of the house judiciary committee. great to have you with us tonight. >> thanks for having me. >> we're at 134 house democrats now favoring impeachment. that's over half of the caucus. does that now reach the threshold where leadership agrees with those of you who

want to proceed toward an impeachment -- a formal impeachment? does that mean house leadership is now on board? >> well, obviously, an increasing number of the members of the democratic caucus have come out in support of the judiciary committee proceedings. the chairman has made it very clear in the last pleading filed in court that we are in the midst of a proceeding as to whether or not we will represent mend to the full house articles of impeachment against the president. we're in the midst of this. it will require us to bring witnesses before the committee to seek the production of documents so that we will make a recommendation to the full house the chairman said by the end of this year. as you point out, every week or every day it feels as if there are additional things that require examination. those will be added to the judiciary agenda. we will look at those things. there will come a point, i presume, that we will have

enough to make a determination as to whether or not articles of impeachment should be filed. the president shouldn't benefit by continuing to commit impeachable offenses and preventing us from taking action. i think there will come a point when the committee will make a judgment based on the evidence presented to the committee and the witnesses we heard from and the documents we reviewed as to whether we recommend to the full house articles of impeachment against the president. >> do those who now support proceeding toward impeachment include the speaker? >> i would never presume to speak for the speaker. i think she's made it clear that she believes the president must be held accountable. no one is above the law. we should continue the robust oversight of the committee. that's what the judiciary committee is going. obviously, the speaker will weigh in whether or not we take up articles of impeachment. our work remains. the president has directed witnesses not to come, to not produce documents. we are litigating these things to be sure we get the evidence we need to make informed judgment. >> let's talk about some of the potential articles or potential things you will investigate. we have donald trump pushing to use his private club as a hosting site for the g-7, which would put global leaders in florida at the height of hurricane season, which doesn't sound quite safe or wise. is that one of the things that you believe should be

investigated as a potential article of impeachment? >> yeah. this is one more way that this president is attempting to enrich himself, his family and his real estate empire by using the office of the presidency. this is a terrible abuse of power. it's an abuse of his office. seeking gain from being president of the united states, which we have never seen this before. this is a president who sees this as a money making enterprise. that's not what the presidency is for. to require foreign leaders to participate in this only by paying donald trump and his organization would be completely inappropriate. likely illegal. that will be added to the list of the ways that this administration and this president has enriched himself that the committee will review. we want to be sure that when the president of the united states or any elected official is acting, they are acting in the best interest of the american people, not because there's some financial game that they are getting or their company or family is getting. it violates a number of conflict of interest prohibitions.

this is one more example of the president who is using this office as a money making enterprise. >> we didn't get to the attorney general paying him to throw his holiday party there. we can do that another time. thank you so much for your time. appreciate it. >> my pleasure. up next right here tonight, a member of congress fighting to keep one of the young people in america who the trump administration wants to kick out, even though it will likely mean she will die, that's next. stay with us. zes your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. i wish i could shake your hand. granted. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

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it has been yet another week of horror and confusion in this country. this time for immigrant kids with cancer, kids with cystic fibrosis, kids with genetic diseases. the trump administration announced immigrants living in this country with an exception would have that take away. they were told to ditch their doctors, ditch their medicine, ditch all the things keeping them alive and leave the country within 33 days or be deported. this policy first made the news this week. the administration said the medical deferments would not be

ending, they would be handled by a different part of the government, which was news to i.c.e. no one told i.c.e. it was their responsibility. today, we got more clarity on what i.c.e. intends to do with this new policy. a spokes told wbur radio in boston, quote, i.c.e. does not exercise discretion to exempt groups of aliens from the immigration laws enacted by congress. in other words, i.c.e. will not take applications for medical deferrals. that is over. the slow trickle of outrage turned into a flood. 127 members of congress have signed this letter to the trump administration today demanding an explanation. next week on friday, the house oversight committee will hold

hearings on this. they are calling on the acting director of i.c.e. and the acting director of citizenship and immigration services, the agency that sent the families a letter telling them they have to leave after a week in which they struggled for information or answers or hope, they now have the prospect of seeing lawmakers put this to the president. congressman, you are on the oversight committee. congressman, thank you for your time tonight. >> my pleasure. >> does congress, in addition to holding hearings, which is important, does congress have the power to stop the trump administration from removing these immigrants who need medical care in the united states? >> first, we have a question of where they got the authority,

where the president got the authority to do this anyway. we're trying to identify that law. obviously, as usual, the administration is not being helpful. we didn't find out about this, at least myself, until my constituent and her mom came to show me the letter they had gotten a week before. >> she is your constituent. what is your office trying to do to help her? >> we're trying to do everything. lots of media, trying to make people aware of the injustice of her situation. she came to this country at invitation of the federal government, the fda, to be in a treatment for her rare disease. she came when she was 7. she's now 24. her participation has helped not just herself but many other people with her disease. she can't get the treatment if she's forced to go back to guatemala. the letter said they would be forced to go back to guatemala

by september 14. we are running against that time. trying to get information from these departments has been very frustrating to say the least. >> if someone dies as a result of this policy, what will congress do about it? >> well, her doctor has written a letter that said she will die. he said more diplomatically that her life will be shortened. she won't be able to get the treatment she gets for one day every week. this is intense treatment. it's really just a horrible situation. we have sent letters. we have been on -- a co-author on the letter. we are introducing a bill on monday specifically for her. mostly, we're trying to get attention to somebody in leadership in the white house to realize what they're doing. they are sentencing this young woman, who has been here legally and was invited by the federal government, they are sentencing her to death. >> getting someone in the white house to realize what they are doing, one presumes they know what they are doing, if one

presumes that, because their cruelty has been open, if you have agencies like i.c.e. that are perpetrating this cruelty on people, we just learned it from your committee, staffers were prohibited from going in and performing oversight over facilities that the department of homeland security is operating, holding migrants. there was a story that came out of some of the facilities that one detainee alleged a border patrol agent told a child who spilled soup the child would not receive more food unless the child drank the spilled soup off the floor. this is dehumanizing and despicable. if it was in another country, we would call for the u.n. to go. should congress keep funding i.c.e. and dhs if this is the way they are behaving toward children. why not cut off the funding? >> we were concerned how they would spend the money. we got in a battle over that. we have to try to hold them

accountable. i'm of the opinion that until a federal judge holds the secretary in contempt of a federal court and puts them in jail, nothing is going to happen. we have a sociopath in the white house. he acts like a mobster rather than a president. >> congressman, democrat from california on the house oversight committee, thank you for being here. we will keep an eye on what you all are doing. we hope you will keep us apprised as this story develops. thank you very much. >> absolutely. thank you. still ahead, a story that rachel wanted to get to last night but didn't have time for. that's next. ...she loved it. her son loves it. and her husband loves it too. and the delivery woman... ...awkward.

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[dog barks] [dog panting] [dogs barking] [dogs growling] [dogs whimpering] (vo) the subaru crosstrek. dog tested. dog approved. [dog barks] while everything else was going on, donald trump canceled a trip he was supposed to leave for this weekend to poland. he said he isn't going because of the hurricane that's baring

down on the east coast of florida. one of the consequences of trump cancelling this trip is not just the trump won't be in poland meeting with the president of poland, but he was set to meet with the president of ukraine. that was the plan. now that meeting is canceled, too. that may be just the way it goes. hurricane shows up and you call off your meeting with the president of poland and the president of ukraine. it might be more consequential than that. ukraine is the country that russia invaded in 2014. from which russia seized the party of ukraine that's crimea. it was the first time the borders of a country in europe were changed by outside military force since world war ii. in response to russia seizing crimea and waging a war in eastern ukraine ever since, western nations led by the united states took steps to punish russia. there were strict new sanctions against the russian oil and gas industry that really hurt the country's fragile economy. the g-8 countries decided they

would become the g-7, kicking russia and putin out. the u.s. congress passed an aid package for ukraine. all of that happened after russia invaded ukraine in 2014 under president obama. then over last few days, we have seen the current president repeatedly and insistently argue that russia should be let back in to the g-7. even though the reason they were kicked out was ukraine. what russia is doing to ukraine hasn't changed at all. trump has blocked the delivery of military aid to ukraine. that aid that was passed into law by congress. it's the very same military aid for ukraine that was supposed to help, quote, keep russia at bay. yet, donald trump has been slow walking it all year. if he keeps blocking aid, through the end of september, the money will disappear for the year. you know who would love that? russia. maybe it's all completely coincidental. there is a monster storm coming.

it is happening at once and has consequences that just happen to be very good for vladimir putin who donald trump just keeps pleasing and appeasing for whatever reason. we'll be right back.

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suddenly defending the filibuster because, quote, america needs the senate to be the senate. it may seem odd a senate majority leader opposes a proposal to increase his own power. certainly it's curious liberals are choosing this moment to attack the three powers. he used it against president obama, more than anyone had used it since the 1960s when the utilizers were right wing southern segregationist democrats. it seems it could be the republican's parties lead attack dog in congress is starting to worry about maintaining the senate majority. and he might be preparing his team to operate from the minority again. just this week we saw a thing that could make that a possibility more likely. there was already a senate seat up in georgia, and then on wednesday all of a sudden, boom, two seats are open in georgia. three term republican senator johnny isaacson announced he will retire at the end of the year because of health challenges. in terms of 2020 this means his seat will be up in a special election next november meaning

georgia will have two senate seats up for re-election. it's looking like maybe democrats have a shot at flipping the senate in 2020. having both of those senate races up in the state of georgia which gives democrats two bites of that apple or a peach is a better analogy is a pretty big deal. democrats only need to net four seats to flip the senate. georgia already trending blue could be a game changer. joining us now is jamal simmons. he worked for president bill clinton and was an advisor to president barack obama's 2008 campaign.

jamal, thanks for being here tonight. you know a few things about georgia having worked with a certain senator there. how likely is it that democrats can pick up one or even two seats when both are up? >> i mean, everybody needs to sober up just a little bit. this is still georgia. but georgia is now at a tipping point. i mean you saw the stacey abrams race where i mean frankly i think she won that race. i think she won that race, but the current governor probably did a few things that kept him in the hunt lunger than he should have been. having a second seat may help. here's why. i was talking to a couple of friends down there today. one of the things that could happen is you could end up -- there are no african-americans running for david purdue's seat. but you could have a couple of african-americans who get into the johnny isaacson seat, and if that happens then you have an african-american on the ballot in november of 2020 while the presidential race is going on, and you could have a surge in

turn out that could bring one of those senators over the line. >> and one of those african-americans will not be stacey abrams. >> she's made it clear she's not going to do it. there are a few people who are out there. the pastor at ebenezer baptist church -- sorry, my earpiece keeps coming out. there are a few people who might do it. >> let's talk big picture. let's say alabama is a tough race to win a second time but trump is probably going to clear that state by like 12 points or so. besides georgia you've got north carolina, you've got arizona which they managed to win statewide, the other sen seat. you have got texas where beto o'rourke came within 3 points. you've got colorado where the republican looks doomed and you've got maine where the republican looks doomed. >> if you think back, this is the senate election that has all those seats from 2014 when the republicans did so well when they were running while barack obama was president. so all those republican senators

are now up this year. and so what you really may have is something people didn't expect, which is that the democrats may be able to take and win the senate. >> we shall see. it certainly is a motivator for a lot of democratic voters because they have been talking senate a lot. jamal simmons, thank you very much. really appreciate you joining us tonight. >> have a good weekend. >> you too. up next, the next event that might give us some indication what might happen next election 2020. and no, it has nothing to do with the next debate. stay with us.

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plus no payments for up to 90 days. only at your lincoln dealer. there is one more race that you should keep an eye on if you're looking for early hints at which way the political head winds are blowing ahead of next year's presidential election. north carolina is holding a do over election for the doover el over election for the congressional seat in the ninth district. it happens in less than two weeks. here's what you need to know about that. donald trump won this district by nearly 12 points in 2016. when this seat was up for grabs last year, the unofficial results show that the republican a baptist preacher named mark harris winning by a razor thin margin of 905 votes. the reason we don't have official results from last year's race and the do over is happening is the state election board threw out the results from last year after evidence emerged that a consultant tied to the firm allegedly committed election fraud. the republican candidate mark harris decided not to run in the redo. so this time you have the same

democrat a marine veteran running against a republican, a state senator named dan bishop. it's the same democrat who barely won last time, naturally a lot of democrats are hoping this time hopefully without significant ballot fraud working against him dan mccreedy just might win. democrats are not the only ones who think that might happen. republicans right up and into including donald trump are worried enough about this seat that a ton of them are swooping in to campaign for dan bishop. the swoopers include house minority leader kevin mccarthy, vice president mike pence, donald trump, jr., and the president himself who's set to appear at a campaign rally the night before the election. the latest polling in the race just out today from inside elections shows that the

democrat dan mccreedy is actually ahead by 4 points. that election is happening on september 10th. mark your calendars. that does it for us tonight. rachel will be back next week, and you can catch me tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. for my show "am joy." >> thank you, joy. and joy, i hope you can hang around and run over here to this studio because a little bit later in this hour i would like to get your political analysis on what's happening in the presidential campaign. so unless you have to run out the door, could you run over here? >> i could be talked into that because you know what i love, lawrence, political analysis. i love to do it, so i will -- >> we need a few more minutes from you. just a few more. what should be a relaxing long holiday weekend is going to be a weekend of bracing for the worst in florida and the south eastern united states. msnbc will be tracking hurricane dorian all weekend, and we will