i think we had a lot. i will mention tomorrow, we have a very special guest who is making headlines and says if they win, donald trump won't even get to run for president. we'll explain more tomorrow at 6:00 p.m. if you tune in. thanks for watching. "hardball" is up next. . >> good evening. welcome to "hardball." i'm steve kornacki in for chris matthews. hurricane dorian is continuing its sweep up the northern seaboard tonight after grazing georgia, the storm is now bearing down along the carolinas with a possible landfall over the vulnerable outer banks of north carolina tomorrow. in south carolina, dorian knocked out power for 250,000 residents. rising floodwaters submerged streets in charleston where the eye of the storm passed within

45 miles offshore. meanwhile, nato sightings have been sighted across numerous counties, experiencing the numerous effects of the outer bands. i have a mong them emerald island, north carolina. it suffered extensive damage which local officials say was inflicted by a tornado in advance of the storm. tonight north carolina is bracing for dorian's impact. this is a time lapse view from earlier today along the coast of wilmington. that city is likely to experience hurricane conditions tonight. all of this comes amid the shock and horror over the extent of the devastation in the northern bahamas, where the death toll has now risen officially to 23 people. that is according to the minister of health there. and joining me now is nbc news correspondent jay gray in wilmington. so jay, we said the eye of the storm still off the coast. but making its way in your direction. set the scene. what is it like on the ground there?

>> well, steve, a tense waiting game continues here in wilmington. throughout the day we've seen people boarding up, getting sandbags in place where they can now for the most part this city is empty. and people watching to see where dorian may go next. as you talked about, this is a storm that has been mirroring the coast for quite some time. could make landfall in this area, perhaps a bit north. either way, it will likely be close enough to leave was winds gusting over 100 miles an hour. a storm surge that could be 7 feet or more, and then driving rains for hours here. this is a city that floods even during a rough thunderstorm. now you've got the power of a category 2 hurricane behind all of this water moving in. so it could be quite a mess here come early morning tomorrow. look, we've got some problems as far as people waiting and watching this. we started covering this story last week this time, this area wasn't even in the picture. it was all about the islands. it was all about florida. now it's a possible strike point. we've seen people getting ready

for evacuating through the week. they're getting a bit of fatigue, and there has really been a strong message from officials, from first responders here, show a little more patience. this thing is coming, and it's going to cause some problems. you've prepared. now make sure you take advantage of those preparations. >> all right. jay gray in wilmington, north carolina. jay, thank you for taking a few minutes. and from where the storm is heading to where the storm has been, i want to bring in nbc news correspondent kathy parks. she is in charleston, south carolina. kathy, we were looking at some of the images of flooding in the downtown there. what is it like as the storm has passed through your area? >> steve, that's right. so we are on the back side of dorian. so the wind gusts, the heavy rain showers, they have all calmed down significantly. it's a big change from what we saw earlier this morning. now we had an opportunity to kind of drive around downtown charleston. there is some damage on the ground. we saw downed power lines,

snapped trees, some blocking roadways. but residents here are breathing a sigh of relief because they were anticipating even more damage. now behind me is the charleston harbor. just a couple of hours ago, the water level was significantly higher. 2:00 p.m., that was a critical hour because folks in this area, they were bracing for high tide. they were also bracing for the potential for even more coastal flooding. fortunately, that didn't happen. it looks like even at this hour, the water level is slowly going down. people here, we had a lot of opportunities to kind of go around, talk to residents in downtown charleston, and they said they live through a lot of hurricanes. they waited anxiously, prepared for days for this storm. obviously they are breathing a sigh of relief because conditions could have been a lot worse here. steve? >> yeah, and kathy, just, again, as we continue to see some of those pictures there, in terms of the cleanup, in terms of the

aftermath, you say not quite as bad as they were expecting. what's that process going to be like? >> right. so, you know, as i mentioned, prepare for hurricanes. they spent days cleaning out the drains. people boarded up. they put the sandbags up on their doorsteps to kind of keep the water out. we actually saw some folks coming out of their homes. they're cleaning off the debris. they're chopping up the trees. this is kind of routine for them. every summer they kind of go through a scare, a hurricane scare. they obviously have to prepare because they don't know how the storm is going to position itself. but, yeah, the cleanup is starting to begin. like i told you earlier, the damage is not as significant. i mean, people here, they were really concerned about the water. they were really concerned because this area is called the low country for a reason. flooding is susceptible just because of the geography of this area. so they were bracing for

significant amount of rain, which we got. but, you know, it kind of worked in their favor because of the kind of conditions, the way they were. the water level wasn't as high as predicted. steve? >> kathy park there in charleston, south carolina. kathy, thank you for that. i'm joined now by nbc news meteorologist bill karins who has been tracking every movement of this storm. bill, we were saying at the top, has passed by the area of charleston. >> yes. >> just passed myrtle beach. >> minor damage in beth of those places that they can clean up. they've got power outages, 200,000, a quarter million people. it's kind of similar situation to florida. and now we're waiting for the hurricane winds to move onshore. so here is the wilmington area right here. this is obviously the eye. still very well defined. still a strong category 2. and you can see these northern bands. if you get into these northern bands, that's when the damage is going to happen. that's when the power outages will start to occur, the tree limbs start coming down you. get the arcs on the power lines there, and the transformers.

and these bands now coming into oak island and little river here in myrtle beach, these are 50, 60-mile-per-hour winds. that doesn't do too much damage. once you get out here, this northern eye is what we need to avoid. that's where we could see the winds kicking up to 80, maybe even 100 miles per hour wind gusts. and that's going brush coast here. the wrightsville beach to wilmington as we go 8:00 to 9:00 this evening. that's the concern. and then we'll watch it tonight going up the north carolina coastline and heading up to the moorehead city area, atlantic beach. we're not done yet. we haven't had -- ever since the storm left the bahamas, we haven't had hurricane conditions anywhere, yet. this will be the first time tonight that that returns. that's going to be the big concern, steve. and when we wake up tomorrow morning, the storm will be over the outer banks and we'll be able to assess how bad it was this evening. >> when we talk the idea of the storm maybe making landfall. what is the difference between it actually hitting the land, actually making landfall versus being off the coast 30, 40 miles? >> two things. one of them is that the

strongest winds are usually on the north or the northeast quadrant of the storm. that's the part you want to avoid. that's usually where we have the maximum sustained winds are usually measured in this region. so if this northeast quadrant can stay offshore, that will usually mean weaker winds. these are pretty good thunderstorms on the back side. the other thing that it means, if we have a parallel the coast, we don't get that water piling up. we don't get the high storm surge. it's much worse if you have a storm approaching a coastline when we get them in the gulf like katrina. it hit like a tee. and that pushed all the water and the water had nowhere to go. here the water hits the coastal areas as it's moving along. and the backside winds push it down. it doesn't allow the water to accumulate. it makes a big difference the angle of approach. this angle of approach will bring high winds, but it shouldn't bring the peak winds unless they get that northeast quadrant over the outer banks. that's possible around cape hatteras and maybe some areas of catterette county. that's why we didn't have the 100 miles per hour wind gusts

this afternoon in charleston or myrtle beach, and we haven't had them yet towards little river and georgetown. that's what we're going to be watching, steve, how much of the core, the damaging part of the storm moves over eastern north carolina tonight. >> okay, thank you, bill karins. appreciate all the information. and nbc's simone boyce is in myrtle beach. so simone, you are the closest. we mentioned the eye of that storm passing north of where you are. but you were the closest of our correspondents to where this storm actually is right now. set the scene for us. >> so, steve, it has been unrelenting rain and wind all day today, starting actually late last night. and i can almost say that it feels as though the storm might be a little bit north of us right now just because the rain has let up just slightly. but as you can see through our camera lens, it is still coming down out here, and we are still feeling the wind. and that's the thing. even as this storm continues to move north, city officials are

asking residents here in myrtle beach to remain vigilant. they have issued a curfew here for nearby areas. as of just a few minutes ago, asking residents to stay off the roads because there is a potential still for flooding and storm surge, especially flash flooding. another concern that we have actually witnessed here today throughout this whole ordeal is the threat of isolated tornadoes. those started early this morning. we woke up to an alert at about 4:00 in the morning saying that there was a tornado warning and a potential waterspout nearby. thankfully, i think the threat, the immediate threat from those tornadoes may have subsided, but the damage is still here. have i been traveling up and down florida following this storm, and i can tell you that the damage i've seen here just in south carolina over the past 24 hours is already worse than anything i saw in florida, steve. >> okay. simone boyce there in myrtle beach. again, close to where the eye of that storm, off the coast there. but in her vicinity.

simone, thank you for that. joining me now by phone, jerry jones, he is the mayor of moorehead city, north carolina. mr. mayor, thank you for joining us. you're certainly familiar with the reports we're familiar with. there is a possibility this storm could make landfall where you are. are you prepared for that. >> i don't know if you're ever prepared. but as i describe hurricanes, it's always a work in progress. you do the best you can this year. but as we know, hurricanes are unpredictable. so the next hurricane brings new challenges. but we are prepared. right now the model shows the eye, it does not over cape lookout which is in carter county about eight miles from moorehead city. it will be pretty close. right now we're just getting tropical force winds. i'm looking in the backyard. i've got some tree limbs down and stuff. in moorehead city, we're under curfew, but it's hurry up and wait for it to get here. >> when you say you feel you are

as prepared as you can be, what does that mean? what goes into that? >> well, it's communication. and i'll hats off to all the media, cnn, you, and everybody, just create an awareness for people to let them know that hey, this isn't fun and games. this is serious. and this could be life-threatening, and you need to be prepared. so we have had evacuation orders in process for a couple of days, and people have heeded that and left town, and others have stayed here and boarded up. and they've got their provisions in the house and their generator is gassed up, and they're inside just waiting to see what happens. >> and i don't know if you heard our reporter in charleston, where the storm was a while back now said there is damage there, but officials were fearing even worse. are you encouraged at all by some of the reports you're getting from where this storm has been on the eastern seaboard? >> yeah, i actually enjoyed listening to the reporters for a

few minutes before i was interviewed. it sounds encouraging. but that doesn't mean you let your guard down by any means. hurricanes are unpredictable. and just a slight wobble to the west, which will bring the eye more closer to us can make all the difference. >> okay, mayor jerry jones from morehead city, north carolina. the storm we are tracking is going to be very close to you, maybe exactly where you are. we wish you the best of luck. hope you and your community remain very safe over the next 24 hours. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> all right. and later we will get an update on the devastation in the bahamas. search-and-rescue efforts are continuing there tonight. the death toll has reached 23 there officially. msnbc will continue to update you on the hurricane in the hours and days ahead. and coming up, president trump heads into the autumn with no clear policy agenda. instead, he is spending a lot of his time attacking his critics and defending his mistaken claim

about the hurricane threatening alabama. plus, the rise of elizabeth warren. the massachusetts senator is getting big crowds and trying to lead the policy debate. president trump has taken notice and reportedly now sees her as a serious threat to his reelection. we've got much more to get to. stay with us. snacking can mean that pieces get stuck under mike's denture. but super poligrip gives him a tight seal. to help block out food particles. so he can enjoy the game. super poligrip.

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it's what we've done no other administration in the first two and a half years in history has done. >> we've done more together in the first two years than any administration in the history of our country. >> i think i've been the most successful president in first two years of office. i mean, it's been a tremendous administration. >> welcome back to "hardball." president trump has often claimed that he's having the most successful presidency of all time. but he has had trouble delivering on key campaign promises with almost half of them being blocked or dropped

according to politifacpolitifac. without a clear policy agenda in an uphill path to achieving any may josh new accomplishments before he faces voters. that follows a summer with few highlights. he canceled the trip to denmark because they wouldn't discuss selling greenland. he spent an extensive amount of time on twitter attacking enemies using words like nasty, pathetic, and lunatics. today he kept up the attacks. he called actress debra messing the mess and accused her of mccarthyism. barbara resch, former executive says he seems to be working less than when they work together. quote, it looks like he is not even trying but he thinks he is trying. to him all the watching tv and tweeting is work so he believes he is on the clock 24/7, 365.

barbara resch joins me now with michael crowley, and thanks to everybody for being with us. barbara, let me start with you. this fixation on the trajectory of the hurricane, the map, alabama, do you have a sense just seeing him up close through the years? have you seen a tendency in him? have you seen anything in his behavior that would explain why that matters so much to him? >> i'm trying to figure this out, because generally when he does something like that tells a lie. i think he knew it was lie when he tells it. he has reason. it's going to help him with something or he is going to get back at someone. i don't see either at play here, yet he is so insistent. the only i'm i've seen him like that is when his wealth is challenged. he's even sued people when they charged him on false reports o wet. >> what about theed in yd this

is somebody who can't admit or won't admit he is wrong. then he comes back to it because he feels it was perceived the wrong way, and he makes all of these claims that are now being challenged by all sorts of fact checkers. in your experience, did you ever hear him admit he was wrong, say he was wrong about something? >> post me he did. but he doesn't admit to being wrong. he'll just back off. or he'll just insist on what he wants which is knowing that you'll do the right thing. >> michael crowley, we're referring to some of your reporting there. just in terms of where the president goes from here, if and when he decides to drop this matter of alabama, congress is coming back in a week. is there a sense that anything can be achieved here legislatively, that he'll have any more accomplishments by the end top year that he can take to the voters in 2020? i think there is a sense that it's possible, but not likely. and it depends on some things.

a lot of them involve trump. some of them involve the democrats. one question is how much does trump want to get serious, go after getting some wins in congress, work members of congress, try to cooperate with democrats. you know, he has been talking about doing an infrastructure plan. of course it's been a rung joke in washington for a couple of years. he canceled a key meeting he was going to have with nancy pelosi and chuck schummer in may because he was upset about democratic investigations. he willing to start that conversation with democrats again? there is this revised version of nafta that congress could ratify, the usmca trade agreements. his people are working that on the hill that is somewhat up to nancy pelosi. but some other big things really are up to him. what's he going to do on gun control. does he want to have gun control legislation. is he willing to possibly offend the nra? do we know where he stands on

something like background checks? i don't think he has made up his mind. one other final key example is health care. president trump has been talking about unveiling a big sweeping health care plan. he told abc news in mid-june he would be rolling it out in two months or less. now we're on the two and a half months and there is no sign of it. is that going to happen? really, a lot of question marks. but when you look at the hostility with democrats, trump doesn't want to seem to work with them. a lot of them are wary of giving him any victories he can brag about on the campaign trail. let's be honest. the odds are not great. >> and shannon, i'm curious what is happening behind the scenes there at the white house in terms of is the president engaged? is he involved? how engaged, how involved is he just in terms of trying to come up with a legislative strategy, a political strategy, with his aides, with the folks in the white house. i'm asking because we have that quote we read there from barbara who knows donald trump well. she says he feels watching cable news, tweeting is part of work. but when you get beyond the watching cable news, reacting to

it and tweeting about debra messing, how much is he engaged there behind the scenes with the team trying to come up with some kind of a strategy? >> well, i do agree with barbara that the tweeting and the watching tv, i think he does do that as work. i think the watching tv is analyzing the coverage, analyzing what people are saying about him, the mood of the country. i think the tweeting about is messaging. it's about showing he is strong, communicating with his base. we can argue whether any of this is effective or not, but i definitely think that is work to him. as far as stuff going on behind the scenes, i actually think there is a lot going on behind the scenes right now in the white house. particularly, i guess on the front burner right now is china. that is really a number one priority inner the white house is getting a china deal done. there's indications that talks will continue next month. the campaign, people feel if they can get a good strong deal with china done, that is really going to help him in the

election. that's something that resonates well with those working class voters in the rust belt. and then on guns, there are very active conversations going on right now between staffers, between members on the hill. the president is being briefed on them about potential gun legislation. the issue is trying to figure out what could actually get past the senate before the president gets behind something. i know -- the white house would like to do something on guns. they know that would be appealing to voters like suburban women, for example. but they want to get behind something that can actually pass. they don't want a big glaring failure. part of the conversations going on right now is trying to find a bipartisan group in the senate and figure out what they can agree on, whether it's background checks, red flag laws, straw man purchasing or other legislation and how to move forward on that. and on the foreign front too, you still have north korea. you have iran. he has talked about foreign trips to germany. possibly another one to poland. thing is a lot going on behind

the scenes. it's certainly going to be a very busy year for me just covering the white house, let alone trying to cover a campaign too. i don't think the business of the white house is going to completely shut down, at least not through the rest of the year and early 2020. >> all right. well, president trump as you probably remember was elected on that promise that he would build a wall and make mexico pay for it. >> well, we will build the wall. don't worry about it. it will be a great wall. it will be a real wall, folks. >> i promise we're building the wall, and mexico will pay for the wall. >> mexico will pay for the wall. and i think they'll actually end up being very happy to do so. >> the wall just got ten feet higher. we love it. we are going to build the wall. it will be a real wall. a real wall. . >> who is going to pay for the wall? >> mexico. >> who? >> mexico. >> on wednesday, defense secretary mark esper approved

the diversion of $3.6 billion from military construction projects in order to build part of that wall. the money will come from 127 projects that were planned in 23 states and around the world. they include $400 million from a national guard training facility in puerto rico, and $17 million from the tindall air force base in florida which suffered catastrophic damage during hurricane michael. michael, this was, this was the central promise of trump's 2016 campaign. it has not progressed the way he talked about it in the campaign trail. what is the sense in the white house. how nervous, how much anxiety, there anxiety in the white house about going to the voters in 2020 and specifically not having to show for this issue what was promised in 16. >> well, i think that, you know, people around trump realize that this is a problem. i think their answer to it is going to be to run, you know, kind of a classic play that we've seen from other presidents. just basically attack the opposition party in congress and

blame them and say i couldn't do this because the democrats wouldn't let me. so reelect me and give me a friendly congress, and maybe we can get it done. the question is whether hitz voters are going to accept that for an answer. a lot of particularly lower information voters who don't follow washington too closely overestimate the power of a president. they hear a promise like that and they think a president can deliver it. and they're not very interested in hearing about the legislative logjams that prevented it. so that is going to be a key question going into this election. how accountable will the president be held for some of his most grandiose claims. and that one probably tops the list. >> barbara, i wonder how trump himself approaches this kind of a promise in the follow through. in the business world, he was a very public business figure. we all heard him just as consumers make big, bold promises about various business ventures. when he would do that, what was

it like with him in terms of how committed was he to the follow-through? how did he generally approach that? >> you know, there are different kinds of promises. some things he knew we could deliver and promised them, and yet he tried to deliver them. with the wall, i don't think he ever thought he could do it. it's not planned out. it would take years to plan it out there. is so much involved in it. so maybe, yeah, he didn't really think it was going to happen, but he got away with it. and he did, didn't he, so far. i think it's more that he thought that that would be beneficial to his campaign. he ran with it. >> the question is what will it do and what role will it play in 2020. barbara res, michael crowley, shannon pettypiece, thank you all for being with us. and up next, the battle for the swing voter. i'm going head over to the big board to look at the issues that pollsters say could take swing voters to move them to the democratic item. the one issue they found where maybe it will keep them with donald trump. big board next. you're watching "hardball."

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all right. well, every election we're trying to figure out who's going to win, who's going to lose. what is the group of voters we are always talking about? we're talking about swing voters. how are the swing voters going to break? are they going to break for trump in 2020 and get him reelected? are they going to break for his democratic challenger and make donald trump a one-term president? we're always talking about swing voters. now an interesting way of

looking at swing voters, looking at who they are, how many of them there are, and what issues are going to potentially animate them in 2020. this is from -- this is the kaiser family foundation and our friends at the koch political report put an interesting survey together. first of all how many swing voters are there? how many folks are there who are not sure they're going to vote for trump or for the demonstrate or against trump or against the democrat? how many of them are there? this is how they broke town the electorate. i think it's very interesting. first of all, are you definitely going to vote for donald trump? will you definitely vote to reelect trump in 2020? 29% in this survey. 29% say they are definitely voting for trump. we would not call those swing voters. now who might potentially be a swing voter? folks who say i'll probably vote for trump, but it's not sure. it's not definite. my mind could be changed. some say they might be willing to vote for a democrat. some say they might vote for a third party.

some say they might not vote. 9% say they'll probably vote for trump but they're not sure. how about the democrats? definitely vote for the democratic candidate against donald trump. there is 34% who say they're definitely going to vote for the democrats. all right you see based on this poll, a little more built-in support for the democrat than there is for trump. how about that, the probably vote for. not sure they're going to do it. they're inclined to do it. but you don't put them down as definites. there is 13%. if you add up the probablies and the definitelies, democrats in this poll 47-38 over trump. and you think of all those head to head matchup polls we've been seeing? trump has been stuck. high 30s, low 40s. then the question is if these are potentially maybe swing voters, these are potentially maybe swing voters, and all the folks who answer say they're already swing voter, they're not sure who they're going to vote for, that's your giant pool. it's almost a third of all voters they say are swing voters. so what issues do they view as differentiating the two parties,

trump and the democrats? this is interesting. check this out. a couple of clear advantages for democrats. the issue of climate change. those swing voters. 59% of them say they prefer the democrats to donald trump on climate change. how about the issue of health care? again, pretty wide margin here. 50% for the democrat, whoever that would be. 32% for trump. then the issue of immigration is a little narrower. an advantage potentially for democrats. 49-40. these are issues not surprisingly you already hear democrats talk a lot about. these are issues where swing voters tend to prefer democrats to the president. but there is one issue in this poll where the president has a clear advantage over the democrats. it is the issue of the economy. we've been talking so much about this. trump with the advantage there. can donald trump harness the economy to get himself reelected? look at this. that is his clearest issue-based path at least with swing voters. some interesting data there from the kaiser foundation and from

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welcome back to "hardball." the carolina coast is taking a pounding from hurricane dorian with heavy winds, rain, and flooding. right now the storm is off the coast of south carolina. it is bringing winds up to 110 miles per hour. storm surges up to 7 feet. hundreds of thousands of people are now without power. nbc correspondent simone boyce is in myrtle beach. simone, we were talking to you a few minutes ago. again, you are relatively close to where the eye of that storm is. you were telling us about some of the conditions. in terms of what's to come once this storm passes and things

settle down, what are they expecting the biggest challenges are going to be in the myrtle beach area? >> well, steve, this is an area that has experienced significant flooding in past storms like hurricane florence and hurricane matthew, and some of the areas that experienced some flash flooding over the past 24 hours are filled with residents that are still recovering from those two storms. so those are some particularly sensitive areas here that officials are going to be catering to in the aftermath of hurricane dorian. now another thing i want to mention is the damage from the tornadoes here. there were tornado warnings early this morning and tornado watches in place for most of today. some of those tornadoes actually ripped the roofs off of homes. people were forced to evacuate from apartment complexes that no longer had roofs over their head. and several trees have been overturned as a result of those winds. now thankfully, the threat from those winds has subsided for

now. but those are some of the things that officials are going to be have to monitor over the next few days, as well as downed power lines. that of course electrocution is a major threat after storms like this. steve? >> simone boyce, stay safe there in myrtle beach. i appreciate you taking a few minutes with us. turning to the bahamas, that is where a massive relief effort is just getting started. rescue workers are making their way to the most devastated areas of the islands. the death toll now is 23, according to the minister of health. that number sadly is expected to rise. joining me by phone is jared higgs who is a reporter with the nassau guardian. jared, thank you for joining us. the devastation we're describing, we're seeing some aerial pictures of, you have seen firsthand. just describe if you would some of the scenes you've witnessed here. >> i mean, it is absolutely devastating in marsh harbour, abaco. people are quickly losing hope. the desperation, it's just so

clear wherever you go to the government, the government clinic, where everybody is hanging out. hundreds of people outside. whenever you go to another government facility, that many people are using as a shelter, i can't even describe it. it's like a favela. this is our office where the office of the prime minister is actually housed. and so now, like i say, it's a makeshift shelter. >> in terms of the worst hit, the hardest hit areas, just getting help in there, just getting aid in there, how successful have officials been with that? >> i must say, the u.s. coast guard has been absolutely vital. they are landing their helicopters in the heart of marsh harbour, which is, like i say, the hardest hit area by this storm. and when i say that, i mean you have the government clinic on one side and the u.s. coast guard is landing their helicopters 200 yards away. so they're at the heart of this.

of course, the marsh harbour international airport, that has been limited in terms of its use. and so today they actually had evacuation lights coming in and out. they were getting out women, children, people who were injured, and elderly. they're of course hoping to open the government fully so they can get more people out of there. the whole place really needs to be evacuated. there is so much destruction. absolutely leveled. i explained to many people that as a result of the storm, i noticed you mention there the death toll of 23. as a matter of fact, just within ten minutes of being in marsh harbour, i was guided by a resident, by someone who lives in one of the migrant village there's to three more dead bodies. our officials have a lot of work to do. >> and i don't know if you've had a chance here. you're moving so quickly here in terms of dealing with this tragedy, but to process it. you are from the bahamas. this is your home. what has it been like to see the

place you lived, the place you've grown up in this state? >> this is something that we never, ever, ever expected. you know, we're from the bahamas. and so we know that we get hurricanes. but, you know, we feel i think we have this strong building code, and that's going to save us. but in this case, that didn't do much for us. i mean, it's absolutely heartbreaking. i could never have imagined. i know that before the prime minister first officially announced that there were confirmed deaths, i was hoping with everything in my that there would not be deaths. and of course that's not the case. i don't know where the death toll is going to be. i have kind of come to grips with the fact that there are deaths now, and lots of them. >> it's just a horrible situation there. jared higgs, thank you for everything you're doing with the rescue recovery efforts, and good luck. best wishes to you and to your family there. >> thank you. up next, the summer of

warren. elizabeth warren has emerged as a very serious contender for the democratic nomination. how and why is their message resonating? and is it potentially unsettling the trump campaign as well? that's next on "hardball." back after this. ♪ ♪ this simple banana peel represents a bold idea: a way to create energy from household trash. it not only saves about 80% in carbon emissions... it helps reduce landfill waste. that's why bp is partnering with a california company: fulcrum bioenergy. to turn garbage into jet fuel. because we can't let any good ideas go to waste. at bp, we see possibilities everywhere. to help the world keep advancing.

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according to the real clear politics average of poll, since memorial day, warren has gained around 7% nationally. that has lifted her to second place behind former vice president joe biden. meanwhile, a monmouth university poll in the critical early state of iowa last month showed warren in second place there as well. 19% for her. that is up from just 7% support that warren had back in april. in other words, she jumped 12 points basically over the summer in iowa, according to the daily beast. president trump has taken notice of this. quote, the president has specifically highlighted what he views as her surprising political and populist talents during the democratic primary, and has told multiple advisers fears she could be tougher. i'm joined by zerlina maxwell, and kristen soltis.

we have a newsletter here. our politics people the first read newsletter, they were talking about potential parallels between warren, and here is a blast from the past, howard dean. >> yeah. >> summer of 2003, the summer of dean. he was doing rallies across the country. 10,000 people, 15,000 people. surged to the lead. and of course we know how that ended. are there parallels you're seeing, or is there more staying power here? >> i don't see the parallels because of the substance she is putting together with the vision. and it's not just that she's exciting thes by of the democratic party and many progressives with essentially having the more bold vision like a bernie sanders, but coupling that with a specific policy proposals that you can look at and say not just where elizabeth warren wants to go, but how we're going get there. and i think that's something that voters really resonates with voters, because they can say well i know what she's going to do as president. it's not necessarily a black box where you say well, she has all

of these policies that seem radical, and i don't know what that will look like. she is laying out a vision. she has this ability to speak in a way that doesn't sound like a politician. i don't know if that's because she was an educator and a professor, and she is really adept at being able to explain difficult policy nuance in a way regular americans can understand. and that's something i think can gain traction. because when you have somebody who is really a compelling speaker, i think she actually gets hit a bit because there is something about women on television. it doesn't translate in the same way with men. and i think that on the stump, she is one of the most charismatic candidates. and i think that the more that people see her. she is doing town hall after town hall. she is going into those trump counties. people are really connecting with that message and i think the specifics of that message. >> we'll see if her numbers continue to rise. that piece of reporting there that is potentially warren and this prize she's had in the polls has caught the attention

of the president. there is a school of thought if you're an incumbent president, your approval ratings is in the 40s squlouchlt be nervous about any potential challenger because you have clear vulnerabilities there. but i think relative to all the other democratic candidates, how worried should trump and republicans be about warren? and i ask that because we had another one this week. this wisconsin poll this week. warren was tied with trump. biden was nine points ahead. we've seen that sort of disconnect a bunch of times. how worried should republicans be about warren? >> what i think should cause republicans the most concern about warren is she takes the economic populist fight, which is a big piece of how donald trump was able to put together his unorthodox coalition, and she matches it with rhetoric that is a little bit less out there than what you might hear from a bernie sanders. bernie sanders embraces the term socialism and tries to rehabilitate it, while elizabeth warren tries to claim the mantle of being a capitalist, but just someone who wants to see capitalism deliver in a different way. she talks about big structure

reform, where bernie sanders talks about revolution. so she takes a policy agenda that is frankly just as progressive, just as sort of to the left as bernie sanders, but she tries to match it with rhetoric that might be a little bit more palatable to those voters who are either closer to the center or were part of that economic populist coalition that trump put together last time around. >> warren's rise comes after her campaign initially got off to a rocky start. it was last october that she released the results of the dna test indicating strong evidence she said of native american heritage in an effort to blunt the president's derogatory pocahantas slur. then in february this year, warren apologized to the cherokee nation for how she handled the situation. gop operatives had a field day and figured they'd feast off that misstep for some time. now with few punches landing, the worry is trump may have already taken his best shot and warren will end up looking increasingly formidable for having bounced back.

what do you make of that? on the one hand for elizabeth warren a potentially triumph narrative. she has been rising since. is there a flip side potentially where if she gets the nomination, this comes back against trump in a general election where the dynamics are just different? >> it depends who you're thinking will care about that kind of issue, steve. the folks that could use that as fodd fodder, they'll continue to do that. donald trump is not going to stop calling her pocahantas, even though that in itself is racist and more offensive than anything dealing with a dna test. in this particular moment, she has shown that she has tough skin. she can survive that onslaught of the trump attack, the nicknames that even the republican candidates in 2016 couldn't stand up against. she has shown that she can weather that storm. what i think is most interesting about her campaign in this moment is that i think we forget when we talk about 2016 that we have not elected a woman yet. we still have not done that. and so we are distracted every

day by donald trump and his antics. and the fact still remains that we have not elected a woman in the history of the united states of america. and so whatever elizabeth warren does in this particular primary and in a general election will be unprecedented in the sense that if she is successful, she will be the first. and that will still be a hard thing to do, but she has shown that she can weather that storm, the nicknames and the name-calling, and she's shown that she has that resilience that i think will warrant voters to take a second and third look at her. and it shows that she can be elected, right? that electability chemical weapon can be answered if she's able to weather these storms through this campaign and still seem viable come general election time. >> so kristen, let me ask you quickly, what do you make of that. if warren has weathered it with democratic primary voters, we will see, does it play -- we're just talking about the swing voters in the last sock it. does it play difficultly potentially trump going after her like that with swing voters?

>> i think it's way too soon to tell how this will affect a lot of voters in the middle. i think a lot of folks that are not folks are sort of waiting for the democratic primary to resolve itself before they really tune in. at the moment trump tweeting, making fun of people, that's noise that they're kind of tuning out. i think it will take a couple of months for us to know if elizabeth warren is ultimately the nominee, it will take a little while for us to see if that has an impact. but i do think the fact that she weathered it at the beginning and has risen in the polls by doing the good things structurally and sticking to policy is a sign perhaps she can weather the strong longer term. >> she has had a terrific summer. we should point out, joe biden is still leading the polls a this point laibor day. thank you. you're watching "hardball." whether it's for this job... this job... or even this job... should be as easy as... ♪

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that's "hardball" for now. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. . tonight on "all in" -- >> we need help. we need help. >> the nightmare in the bahamas continues to unfold as dorian moves up the east coast and the president just won't let go of alabama. >> in all cases, alabama was hit. >> tonight the latest on the devastation, and what's happening with our unchecked and unbalanced commander in chief? plus the list of republicans choosing retirement over reelection just keeps getting longer. and about those buybacks. >> americans who own ar 15s,