we ran out of time. my thanks to the rev al, alexi, nick confessore. most of all to you for watching. that does it for hour. i'm nicole. "mtp daily" with chuck todd starts now. if it's friday, the sharpie, the wall, and the consequences. it's been a week of black marks for president trump. could moving military money to pay for the border wall wind up the most permanent mark on his presidency? plus, dnc chairman tom perez joins me here on set as the top tier of the 2020 field gets ready to face off ahead of a pivotal and potentially nasty primary stretch. and the first election of 2020 is about to happen. why one little race has some

really big stakes. certainly has gotten president trump's attention. welcome to friday. quite a first week back, i guess, to school, should we call it? this is "meet the press daily" and good evening, i'm chuck todd here in washington. pun intended here, but the projected path of this presidency and re-election effort right now is not heading in a good direction. so let's mark things up, sharpie style, so to speak. president trump said mexico is paying for the wall, but now we know, thanks to a list of 127 projects from the defense department whose funds are being diverted that places like mexico beach in florida are actually paying for the wall. the attack ad, by the way, there almost writes itself for the democrats. the president is potentially playing with fire politically on this. millions in funds allocated for tyndall air force base in florida are being diverted. same goes for military facilities in arizona, colorado, new mexico, texas, and wisconsin. yes, those are just competitive 2020 states affected. many others are, too. the president also said new wall

is being built rapidly. but it's not. in fact, when he rolled out his campaign slogan "finish the wall," no new wall had actually been built. none, zero, zip. the wall is like the sharpie. both of these big stories dominating the headlines are emblematic of what some voters may see as stemming from trump's chronic dishonesty. that's why everyone, including the president, is fixated on a dang sharpie. today came another twitter rant from him on this, once again defending his incorrect warnings from a few days ago that dorian was heading towards alabama when it was not. sharpiegate has the chance to become the punch line of his protest. but raiding military funds to pay for a political project could end up becoming the more permanent mark on his presidency. now, look, you often hear folks ask if this moment or that moment is the tipping point for this president. but if helsinki, charlottesville, so many others

are not. this is what happened in the midterms, this is the polling right now, has him traveling every top-tier democrat in the field. there's concern about the health of the economy. and most of all, there's the surprisingly high rate of republicans now leaving congress, speaking with their feet perhaps more than with their mouth. joining me now, msnbc contributor and daily beast political reporter, betsy woodruff, matthew continenti. welcome all. betsey, i want to start with you. you know, we have an expression in politics, nimby, not in my background. but it can apply to things like this military thing. interesting way people are suddenly going, wait a minute, this is suddenly in my backyard. there was a great nugget here from a woman in texas. this is a "new york times" story about a south texas resort that includes a pool, a golf course, and maybe a border wall.

here's what she said. i never thought they'd go through a subdivision, said shirley menard, who voted for trump in 2016. my blood pressure has not been normal since i got that letter. miss menard is not sure how she will vote in 2020. >> i guess she should have known what to expect for properties on the border. and she voted for someone who promised to build a wall from sea to shining sea. the president -- people have talked about not taking the president literally, but in the case of the wall, he meant it very much in a literal sense. the irony of this, though, is that members of his own cabinet don't use the same language. the newly minted defense secretary, mark esper, wrote a letter to congress a couple of days ago laying out all the funding they were going to spend, how much each new section was going to cost, and the word "wall" was not in that letter at all. >> matthew and juanita, i want to put up here, these are some of some of the states, and they're very familiar states to people when it comes to battleground states. florida, we have 17 million. arizona, $30 million. colorado, $8 million.

new mexico, $125 million. texas, $38.5 million. wisconsin, $8 million. and here's the thing. voters in these communities, matthew, know that it doesn't always come back. it's not clear this money is coming back. >> no, but i would say that in the end, i think it's more important for president trump and for the republicans, for him to deliver on this promise. >> do you believe that -- >> than any possible erosion among voters. and i'm not clear whether these voters were for him in the first place in 2016. but if you look at the trump presidency, he has delivered to every element of his coalition with one big exception. that was the failed attempt to repeal obamacare. and the wall is kind of hanging out there, right? >> you think it's too symbolic for him to ignore? >> it was chanted at so many rallies. it was a huge part of his campaign. immigration is his core issue. so, yeah, maybe there's some risk of political blowback, but delivering on the wall in time

for the convention so he can talk about it at the convention, in time for the debates in 2020, i think is a priority. >> but i don't necessarily think that he has to deliver on the wall. because there are americans out there who already believe that he has. there are ardent supporters of his who believe any and everything that he says. and the fact that there are 600 miles of existing border wall, some of which he has reinforced is enough for them. and so that's what i think we should be paying attention to. the fact that he is going to probably go on the rest of this election cycle and lie and have that eaten up by his base. >> so the political risk here? if the -- will there be blowback? i mean, i assume these elected republicans want these projects back. >> of course they want them back. anytime you take money out of a district, people in that district know and they're frustrated about it. secretary esper spent a lot of times over this past week calling members' offices, trying to break the news to them in the gentlest way possible. that's not going to make a difference for the people who aren't having schools built and

haven't having work come in. so that's -- of course that's something that's going to be costly for the president. at the same time, the broader challenge, as you pointed at, with the walsh is that it very much is the definitive issue that the president ran on. it's a core part of how he explained his candidacy. and if he's not able to point to reality, people in his administration are probably going to push back a bit. off the record, you'll have senior trump administration folks talk to reporters and push out stories. the "washington examiner," a conservative publication, did a story a couple of weeks ago, pointing out the fact, which is public, that the president had not yet at that point built any new barrier where none existed. you're going to see pushback against the president from his own right flank if he isn't able to keep this promise. >> let's talk sharpie. a rorschach test. does everybody just see what they want to see at this point? it does feel like it is now going to be one of those that whatever people think of it, this one isn't going away.

>> i think there's definitely a segment of independence or conservatives who are -- who had it up to their neck with trump tweeting and erratic behavior and not being able to find the words "i made a mistake" and back down from something so small. and they're viewing this behavior as childish. so they're looking for an off-ramp and trump is giving it to them by continuously behaving in a way that is unpalatable and indefensible. and when it comes to us spending, what, three days now talking about a sharpie that he is only now starting to have white house staffers on background admit that yes, he did this, even though it's clear that he is the key editor with sharpies nonstop in his office. >> i get the sense, matthew, that, like everything trump does, he stumbled into this. and now he views it, all right, now i'm going to have a war with the media, because i can make the media the enemy on this and my people won't care. >> yeah, this has been a winning issue for him this week. >> winning? >> i don't think anyone's votes are affected in any way by this conversation?

>> i get the idea that it doesn't impact his base, but winning? >> that's a win. that's a win. when you have an 81% approval rating among republicans. when trust in the media is at a low, right? the idea that anyone's votes will be affected over a three-day controversy over what he might have done with a map or how he might have interpreted an early weather projection of what the hurricane went, is totally, totally wrong. the only two things that will affect donald trump's re-election are the state of the economy over the next year and the identity of his democratic opponent. >> i think we're perhaps getting a little too fill sphilosophicat what is and isn't knowable about voter behavior. one of the biggest concerns is support or lack thereof from suburban women. there's a recent poll that shows only 30% of the women in the united states want to see trump get recollected. and these kind of conversations -- >> and do you think for any of them the sharpie was the breaking point? >> i think women see this of a

piece with behavior that doesn't seem designed to court them. and remember, trump's children brought him forward to do a speech on the environment several months ago as part of an effort to win back suburban women. that is not the kind of project that you put forward when you're trying to change a narrative tree to reach suburban women. and it's the kind of goal that is totally swamped by not just this particular incident, but the pattern of the president -- >> let me throw out a bank shot thought on this. and take -- i'll take your point, but then ask you this. does the sharpie debate take away a weapon by trump to attack joe biden? meaning, because if you want to say, oh, biden makes gaffes, and then you're like, wait a minute, when you stand next to the sharpie nonsense, you're like, what are we debating here? that it makes it harder for him to go after biden and make that stick. >> well, it won't make it harder for him to go after biden. >> it will make it harder for

him to be credible. >> i think in the minds of independent voters, when you compare trump and biden, i do think many of them view the types of behaviors of the two candidates differently, even though you can classify them both as gaffes, right? so i take your point there. but this won't stop trump from attacking biden on his age, on his erratic behaviors and on his policies. >> but is it a gaffe when he stands by it for a week now, is it really a gaffe when he doubles and triples down on this day after day? no, this is erratic behavior. >> the punching bag is the mainstream media. and it takes two to fixate on an issue. i hate to break it to you. if the press wanted this issue to go away, they could move on to something else. but it's both trump and the media that are fixated on this marker. it's driving me crazy. >> no, i -- i went through -- i blew up at this yesterday, because it's both ridiculous and somebody has to play the grown- grown-up. but, i'm sorry, the president of the united states has the duty to be a grown-up.

>> sure. that's your opinion. >> that's not an opinion. no, no -- it used to be a fact. >> chuck, they are selly sharpies for the trump campaign. >> they're not selling sharpies. it's a different kind of marker. we should put it up here. brad parscale tweettweeted, buy official trump marker that is different than any other marker on the market, because this one has the special ability to drive cnn and michael continenti crazy. >> they also cost $15 a pop, which would not be in the budget of the blue collar workers that they were trying to court. >> but people paid $10 for a plastic straw, so there's a willingness to engage in the -- >> i do think sharpie is that. it is -- that's why i bring it back to this military thing. i'm surprised you don't think in these local communities this becomes -- because i think the one thing i thought democrats failed to do in '16 that they

did a good job of in '12 was figuring out how to take something about an opponent and connect it to them personally. suddenly, you can do that. >> yeah, but we don't know how people are going to respond. there are many people who might be affected by these project who is do believe that a wall should be built and do believe there's a national security issue. >> i don't deny that. >> it's complicated behavior. and when you get into a campaign situation and take extraordinary measures to build a wall versus some of the extraordinary pro-immigration policies, i'm not sure where independent voters will come down. >> there's going to be some democratic lawmakers that personally want this money back in their district. and at the same time are like, i'm not going to get -- i'm not going to vote for this -- that is going to create some tension. >> a lot of tension. and i think that's something that they should speak loudly about every day, because what i think -- >> no, no, but should they go ahead -- how do they get that money they want to deliver for their constituents and combat

trump at the same time? >> we always hear the phrase from democrats, we can walk and chew gum. i think this is going to be a test of that. they have to fight to get the funds back, while also still holding trump accountable on so many other points. but they got to try. because this is really a point where the impact is going to be localized. >> i think when we talk about this local impact, we kind of have seen this movie before in the trump administration, when it comes to the trade war with china and very much to matt's point, many of trump's supporters who are hurt the most by the trade war especially, farmers and other agricultural workers have still chosen to stand by him because they buy the argument they're making. >> and we've got to separate out, there's the trump base and the slice of voters who hated hillary clinton that voted for him anyway. that's the people we're talking about. >> who are persuadable. >> that's the ones, do they take the sharpie ones, do they like this? answer that question and we know who's president in 2020. betsy, matt, juanita, you guys are sticking around and we'll drive each other crazy.

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welcome back. we're less than a week away from the next democratic debate. it's the first time there will only be one debate stage with the top tier candidates all in one place. but if the dynamic was hoping its tougher threshold for qualifying fbt debate would winnow the vast field, that hasn't fully happened, at least not yet. ten candidates will be on stage thursday night, half the numbers that participated in the first two debates. but there are still 20 democrats running and those who didn't make the stage, they're not planning on getting out anytime soon. 19 of them will be in new hampshire this weekend for the state party's convention. with me now is tom perez, president of the democratic national convention. simple question for you, sir. how you doing? welcome. >> great to be with you, chuck. >> is the criteria working basically the way you thought it

would work. do you feel like candidates are -- you know, that the criteria is serving as a way to try to winnow field or not? >> our goal isn't to winnow the field. our goal is to do what we've done in every primary cycle, which is, you have to show that you're making progress. and we've been very transparent, you know, we put out the first debate criteria five months ahead of the debates. we put out the second debate criteria two or three months, three months, i think, ahead of the debates. and we've gradually raised the bar. 2% is still a pretty low bar. and we gave 21 different polls and you've got to get 2% in four of those 21. and so i think we've been pretty fair overall. and i really -- i'm heartened by the fact that there are 10 people who made it and i look forward to next week, because i'm confident it's going to be a discussion of real issues. >> not all the candidates believe it will be. i want to play for you something

pete buttigieg said about debates. take a listen. >> well, i mean, part of the debate form is they've got you giving 60-second answers and there's ten of you up there, and it's hard to have a meaningful conversation like we can do in the town halls. the most important thing, i think, is for somebody watching the debate to be able to picture how their life is going to be different if you're president versus any of the others. and that gets lost. >> fair critique that with ten people on stage, no matter what you do or how thoughtful you try to be, 60 seconds isn't long enough. >> we have had ten people on the debate stage for a long time. i'm thinking about july 2007. we had a recession, weren't sure if it was going to be a depression. we had hillary clinton, barack obama, and many others on that debate stage. we had a very spirited debate. we weren't able to get into the depth that you might be able to get into in forums. and that's why we do more than just debates. and i appreciate what nbc has done, what other networks have

done to give those earned media opportunities. soy look at the debates as part of a broad array of opportunities for the candidates to communicate their vision. and again, i appreciate, for instance, that msnbc and cnn are both tackling the climate issue. and i think that's incredibly important. and so i think overall, you know, i think these debates are working to help candidates communicate their vision. >> i want to talk to you about something larger here. do you view 2020 in sort of the campaign for the democratic party, is this about defeating president trump or pursuing a larger democratic agenda? >> campaigns recal s are always the future, not about the past. >> are you sure, because joe biden's campaign in particular is focused on one guy. >> no, he and all of our democratic field are focused on communicating what they stand for. and we understand, this is the most dangerous president, chuck, in american history.

make no mistake about it. so you can't ignore that fact. but i think what the voters are going to have is, we have an alignment of values. every single candidate on the debate stage and every single candidate running, regardless of whether they're on the debate stage, believe if you have a pre-existing condition, you should keep your health care. every single candidate wants to bring down the cost of prescription drugs, wants to tackle the climate challenge. we're not having a debate about the science on climate. every single candidate understands that you don't put kids in cages. and we're having a debate about how to get to universal health care. and we have differences there. but the values alignment and the vision for our future, i think there's a lot of alignment among our field and i think it's an exciting vision. >> yesterday we put together a lust of the -- i think we found 65 different investigations that elected house democrats have called for. we made a little, we call it a word collage here. big donors, i'm sure, of the democratic party, some of whom would like to see this president out yesterday. some of them would like to see

impeachment started yesterday. what do you tell them when they complain that house democrats, they seem to have not gotten him yet? >> well, listen, i was a prosecutor for a number of years at the department of justice under republican and democratic administrations. i learned early on as a federal prosecutor, you have to ready, aim, fire. you don't fire, aim, ready. you have to gather the facts. and democrats can walk and chew gum. they're very aggressive -- >> 65 of them. is it almost too many to tackle? should it be prioritized. are you at all looking at this going, you know what, the democrats promised to hold them accountable, but this is scattershot. >> the challenge that we have is this president, the culture of corruption is so limitless that you have an obligation to conduct oversight. at the same time, we can walk and chew gum. and you look at what nancy pelosi and democrats in the house have passed. i was in colorado yesterday. colorado, because they have democratic governor, a democratic state senate, a democratic state house. they've passed gun violence

reductions. they've passed a bill that will reduce the cost of insulin in that state. they've passed a bill on all of the issues that are sitting in moscow mitch's office, gathering dust. so i think we can communicate to the american people that, yes, we need to hold this president accountable. and yes, we're listening to the fact that if you want to make sure you have a pre-existing conch, you can keep your coverage. we want to make sure that we go after the pharmaceutical industries and don't get into bed with the pharmaceutical industries like the republicans are. >> are you hearing from donors who are at all frustrated that it's been a slow pace? >> well, you know, i've heard -- i can remember one day, chuck, where i literally had the following two meetings back to back, not with donors, with stakeholders that i have great respect for. and the first meeting was, we need to have less people in the race. the second meeting was, you're going too fast. we need to have give everyone an opportunity.

and when i hear both of those critiques, it makes me feel like maybe we've found a sweet spot. >> let's talk about iowa here and the caucus issue and all of that. why not -- it probably wouldn't be that hard to do one of two things with iowa right now. which is create this sort of -- make it a day-long event, 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. and allow anyone to vote at any time during that day. you could create sort of a firehouse primary. they already know all the locations they want to do or add a second day, do a sunday and monday. has that at all been thought of? i mean, as sort of a way to mitigate the concern of closing off the opportunity to participate? >> here's what's happened in iowa. and here's the action that was taken quite literally an hour or two ago. >> oh, well, good, we've got news. >> number one, there was an effort to use technology, so that we could have a telephone caucus for people who could not

make it for one reason or another. and we convened a team of experts working obviously together with the iowa democratic party and we were told in no uncertain terms that the risk is too high. and today, our rules and bylaws, committee of the dnc, formally indicated both for iowa and nevada that we will not be using that. >> okay, that's dead. that's off on the side. now what's on the table? >> so what we're doing, because we recognize that time is of the essence. candidates need to know what are the rules of engagement. we've resolved that in nevada. they have -- there's early voting allowed in nevada under the rules of their caucus. >> and that's going to be okay? >> that's going to be okay. they also have what we call at-large caucuses, so if our work on the strip in las vegas, you don't have to go home to where you live to vote. so they've taken care of their situation. nevada is good to go. >> so the iowa situation, we have given them and we're working very closely and collaboratively with them two weeks to identify all of the

options and figure out what we can do to make this work. because our goal everywhere and i will remind you, chuck, we made some really remarkable reforms over a year ago that were designed to increase participation and they have done that. >> should you abandon all caucuses in hindsight? just forget this caucus? >> well, actually, six states, as a result of the -- >> ended up getting rid of -- >> have moved from a caucus to primaries. including colorado where i was yesterday. and those states that have retained the caucus system are taking aggressive efforts to make sure they work. and step number for iowa is number one to make sure that the caucus itself, the event functions well. and that's critically important. step number two, equally important, is to make sure that we're providing, doing our level best to ensure that people who can't make it, whether you're a senior citizen or whether you're working third shift, second shift, that you can get in there. and we're going to be looking at every option that is humanly

feasible over the next two weeks. and i have great faith in the good faith of everybody involved to try and come up with a solution that's -- >> well, let's leave it right there. this is news. the dnc chairman just announced, iowa, you're on the clock. two weeks. tell us what the caucuses look like. >> and we're going to be working together with them. we're all in this together. we want to make sure everybody has an opportunity to participate. >> this is a big deal. tom perez, chairman of the dnc, thanks for coming on and sharing that news. up next, the latest from hurricane dorian, the damage it's leaving and the difficult recovery for everyone ahead. i'll talk to someone who saw the devastation, firsthand. shrimp yeah! red lobster's endless shrimp is back for just $15.99. get all the shrimp you want, any way you want 'em. like new sriracha-honey shrimp, savory grilled teriyaki shrimp,

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welcome back. hurricane dorian is quickly moving away from the north carolina coast, where it has spent much of the day wreaking havoc along the outer banks. the eye of the storm passed over cape hatteras around 8:30 this morning as a category 1 storm. nearly 150,000 homes and businesses are without power this evening. thankfully, some areas are able to start assessing damage as dorian moves toward canada. and yes, you heard that right. the canadian hurricane center has had to issue a warning, not just a watch, a warning for portions of nova scotia and there's hurricane watches for parts of newfoundland. a hurricane warning means hurricane force winds are likely to happen in 24 hours. down in the bahamas, the grim task of cleaning up is underway. as we reported, dorian made landfall there as a category 5

storm, razing entire neighborhoods. officials say hundreds if not thousands of people are still missing and the death toll now at 30 will certainly climb, sadly. and many of those that did survive the storm are in need of urgent help. >> the area looked like we were bombed. everything in abaco is gone. >> i've lived in the abacos all my life. i've been through hurricane floyd, which was a 5 also, but i tell people, this was like a 10. i mean, everything is gone. >> i got my two boys, my wife, and i and we don't have nothing now. house gone, car gone. >> all of our homes are destroyed. we have nowhere to go. >> it destroyed everything. everyone's life. absolutely. because we have nowhere to go now. ain't nothing to do. >> jared higgs is a reporter at the nassau guardian. he saw the destruction on abaco firsthand and joins me now on the phone. and i just want to warn

everyone, we know communications right now are dicey after the storm, so we're hoping to hold your cell signal for as long as we can. jason, tell me your story. >> hi, chuck. it's jared. i was in marsh harbor, yesterday, where the eye of this very deadly storm passed over. it is sadly like a war zone there. the people are desperate, many of them trying really hard to evacuate the island. there are really basically needs. they need water, many people are at a shelter, at a government complex. i have describing it, it's where hundreds of people are where currently -- it's where hundreds of people are currently being sheltered. they have all of their clothes hanging up, they're hanging out. it's just where they are and it's what they have right now, many people trying to evacuate. >> jared, i'm curious, i'm sure they are getting a bunch of

resources, but i'm sure the hardest part is getting the resources to those that need it. how would you assess how the government is doing right now, trying to essentially take the resources that are being contributed and getting them to the people that need it? >> it's difficult to say. i mean, it's somewhat -- there are some serious logistical challenges. i can say that there's a private group that seems to be doing quite a bit to try and ensure that resources and aid get to these people. the u.s. coast guard, of course, doing a lot to get aid in. you know, the government is rahal challenged right now. this is something -- this is an unprecedented event in bahamian history. this is, as some people have been describing it, our lowest point. and so coordination seems to have been the -- or seems to be the biggest challenge for the bahamas government right now, ensuring that all of these different groups from all these different countries who are trying to help, all these different organizations, ensuring they're all working in

tandem. >> look, you've seen it firsthand. what's your sense of how much gets rebuilt and how much never gets rebuilt? >> i will say that march harbor will be rebuilt. the reason i say that is because the people there are very proud. marsh harbor, abaco, again, abaco is an island in the northern bahamas. it's not anywhere near the capital, new providence, nassau that you may have visited on a vacation, perhaps. it's its own island. its people are very resilient. they have been telling me they're going to rebuild, but it's going to be a long process in order to do so. >> i imagine it is and i would like to think many people in the united states will be there for them. jared higgs, thank for doing the reporting you're doing and sharing with us. >> if you want to help provide for people displaced by this storm, go to redcross.org for more information and we'll be

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welcome pack tonight. in 2020 vision, some state republican parties are preparing to clear the field, sort of, to protect president trump as he seeks re-election in 2020. politico reports that south carolina, nevada, arizona, and kansas are planning to cancel their republican primaries or caucuses next year. that will mean an already-very steep climb for the president's primary challengers just got a bit steeper. may not be able to find a way to win delegates. the white house, which has repeatedly said they are not concerned about any primary challengers responded by pointing out that this is often what happens when there is an incumbent president. and that is true. it is worth noting, though, that the republican party is putting the fix in a bit for the president. four years after then-candidate trump repeatedly criticized both the rnc and the dnc for rigging the primaries. >> the dnc, democratic national

committee, rigged the democratic election, the primary process, to take it away from bernie and give it to hillary clinton. it's a rigged system and the republican system is rigged too. except if you win by a lot. it's a rigged system. it wasn't meant for me to win. the system isn't set up like that. but we won in new hampshire so big. i started talking and using the word "rigged," right, about four months ago. nobody used the word "rigged," now everybody's calling it rigged. they copy my, i want to go out, i want to have that phrase coin. >> yep! there's always a tweet, right? there's always a press conference. there's always a rally speech. while the early states of north carolina and nevada are likely off the board for republicans, there will be republican primary contests in new hampshire, a caucus in iowa for bill weld, joe walsh, and any other republican challenger to make their presence known against president trump. in reality, it's the first two

contests are the only opportunity for those candidates to make the case that they can somehow beat a sitting president. and it may be the only two contests that matter in that conversation. much more on 2020 after the break. up ahead, a special election that could effectively be the first votes of the 2020 race. and we can guarantee you this. what happens in north carolina on tuesday isn't going to stay in north carolina. not in this political environment. that's coming up next. ♪ spending time together,

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we're just days away from the last race of the 2018 midterms. or is it the first race of 2020? voters in north carolina's ninth district will head to the polls tuesday for what is, i guess, a new election. it is special. it's very special, but it's not like other special elections. it's after the results from last november's contest were thrown out. so it's really a redo. and this is the one where there were allegations of election fraud by someone working for the republican nominee who is not running this time, by the way. tuesday's race is shaping up to look like many of the democratic races. dan mccready is focusing on health care, moving towards the middle. president trump carried this district by 12 points. and the fact that this race is a toss-up is already not good news for the gop. but if they can hold the seat, it could mean the president's coattails are still strong enough. if democrats can flip this seat, it will show their 2018 strategy still works and that they still

have the wind at their backs coming into 2020. so like i said, this special election is about a lot more than the seat that's up for grabs. joining me in this conversation is dave wasserman, house editor of the cook political report, also an msnbc contributor. and still with me are betsey, matthew, and juanita. so mr. wasserman, is this the last election of 2018 or the first one of 2020? >> i think it's the first one of 2020. it's in a critical 2020 state. president trump carried this district by 12 points and republicans badly need a moral boost right now. keep in mind that we've seen three times as many retirements so far from republicans as democrats. the ranks of republicans running for re-election are falling so fast i'm yelling "timber." and this is a district that republicans really need to hold to make the case that, you know, they can still win the majority back in 2020, which i think will still be very difficult to do. >> you guys have this partisan voting index, essentially if you

put, you know, equilibrium there as a congressional district, how much does it lean to one party, how much does it lean to another? i believe you have this one as an r plus 10, if i'm not mistaken. >> r plus 8. >> excuse me. well, we went through, r plus 8 or less, there's still 45 republican-held seats in that range. and if it gets up to 72 if you go up to r plus 10. so this really is a canary in the coal mine going forward, is it not? >> well, the problem for republicans more broadly is the retirements we're seeing in places like texas mean that they're going to need more than just picking up 19 democratic seats, which was the current deficit to win control of the house back. if they lose this one, that's going to be really hard to overcome. we're seeing you know, right now, that democrats have an even larger advantage in the early voting numbers than they had at

the same juncture in 2018. i'm not sure how much that means. if you'd force me, i would city say bishop is the favorite there. he's represented a key portion of the district in the charlotte suburbs. but still, even if this race is really, really close on tuesday, that's not a good omen for republicans' ability to outpace their 2018 performance. >> i want to get the panel in here to weigh noin on the messaging that we're seeing. it is interesting how each side is running. let me put up basically a tv ad from each side. here's a bishop ad from a week ago hitting mccready, the democrat. >> thdan mccready is an ultra liberal. he likes open borders and he really admires socialism. >> dan mccready, a liberal. backed by radicals who want open borders and socialized medicine. dan bishop is the right dan. dan bishop, he'll defend our values. >> dan bishop. he's going to be a great congressman. >> all right.

now, here's the mccready ad, reallyccready. >> i work with democrats and republicans to make health care affordable. that's why i support bipartisan plans to lower prescription dru

>> the thing about this race

that is captured, this is the first race where the squad is actually part of the conversation. >> aoc is with pelosi and bernie. >> she's with pelosi and fwern any. there's another ad bashing mccready. mccready returned a contribution he got from omar. it's very much ground zero of some of the new post 2018 culture wars. >> right. >> and could be quite telling for what 2020 is going to look like. >> the other part of the bishop ad, the attack on mccready, it looks like an rga ad that attacked a democrat in kentucky and one that attacked democrats in mississippi. it's interesting that the republicans have a national defensive playbook here for sure. >> yeah. look. democrats nationally would ordinarily tie dan bishop to the

sponsorship of the bathroom bill and hate him as a social extremist. this is a district and he needs to win over independents and denationalize the race and that's what he tried to do in 2018 and came close. he's trying to run on prescription drug costs and attacking bishop for a bill that he voted for that he said was in line with prescription drug companies so we'll see if that works. >> very quickly, dave, since i have you here, the decision by the state courts there in north carolina to throw out the state legislative map, assuming they do draw a new map and there is sort of a new -- and 2020 becomes a massive basically election fight in the state of north carolina, what does that trickle up effect mean if democrats think they have a chance at winning the general assembly? >> north carolina will be a huge

battleground in 2020 no matter what. i think it's one of the six states that will decide the 2020 election. it's a narrow battlefield. the supreme court foreclosed the possibility of bringing partisan jerrymandering claims so democrats are looking to the state route. unfortunately for them, a lot of the state legislatures have been gerrymandered back in 2011. north carolina that's true. so they're going to need a new map and they're getting it to have any shot at winning a seat at the table. >> that's interesting. the importance psychologically for kevin mccarthy to get a win to talk them back into running? >> it would be a big boost for morale and conversely a loss. i think you'll see people try to isolate the district. >> sure. >> talk about how -- >> mccready got ripped off. >> running for two years. he has all the money, the name i.d. >> is that a fair excuse?

>> you know, it's hard to say. the coverage of the race is that there is momentum. >> you know it didn't come up in the ad. you don't hear impeachment. >> you don't hear it. >> do you think that that is what nancy pelosi is hearing and that's why she doesn't push the envelope. >> mccready fully recognizes i'm in a suburban heavily republican district so i think you're going to have those members, his profile represents what a lot of front line members are up against. pelosi might be on to something there. >> dave wasserman. thank you all. up ahead, we have big news for the "meet the press" family. it got bigger. if you have moderate to severe psoriasis,

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we have advanced fuels for a better commute. and we're developing ultra-fast-charging technology for evs.. at bp, we see possibilities everywhere. so we can all keep advancing. well, in case you missed it, we decided to bring back in case you missed it because we have some very exciting news. we have exciting news. say hello to mars hunt riff v e rivera. mom, dad and baby are all doing wonderfully and thrilled to be a family of three. big congratulations to matt and kasey and the entire "meet the press" team. we are ecstatic. anyway, that's all we have for tonight. we'll be back monday with more

"meet the press" daily. we'll get into what the week of sharpie tells us about president trump. my guests do include the secretary of state mike pompeo and secretary of state amy klobuchar. >> is the baby a chuck toddcast listener yet? >> put it this way, matt rivera is going to make sure he is. >> amen. >> since he produces the show, he better. >> one at a time, one at a time. have a great weekend. we'll be watching on sunday, sir. >> thank you, brother. >> absolutely. now we have a lot of stories in a big show tonight. congress is coming right back in next week and gearing up for a fall with new investigations and new leads against the trump white house. this includes a serious probe into something that should not ever really be normal. the vice president spending your taxpayer money to stay at a trump hotel that was completely out of the way. it's the tip of the iceberg. we have that story. new revelations, trump officials spending lavishly on office supplies and furni