and that wraps up the hour for me i'm going to see you from d.c. tomorrow where chris hayes and i are moderating climate forum 2020 featuring 2020 candidates talking climate change with young voters "deadline: white house" with nicolle wallace begins right now. ♪ hi, everyone, it's 4:00 in new york u.s. secretary of state mike pompeo, the last man standing in terms of donald trump's original national security team may miss some of the u.s. credibility that's been squandered by a president who's logged more than 4,000 lies since his inauguration that's because mike pompeo arrived in saudi arabia today where he described the weekend attack on saudi oil fields as an act of war those are the strongest words so far from any american official when it comes to the attack. pompeo telling reporters, quote, this was an iranian attack we were blessed there were no americans killed in this attack. but any time you have an act of

war of this nature, there is always a risk that could happen. the president was asked about those comments and didn't exactly agree or disagree. >> he just came out with a statement. he spoke to me a little while ago, and we'll have an announcement there are many options there is the ultimate option and there are options a lot less than that. and we'll see. we are in a very powerful position we'll see what happens i think we have a lot of good capital. if we have to do something, we'll do it without hesitation >> but a president who can't get on the same page as his secretary of state who's on the ground in the region talking about an act of war can turn a treacherous national security situation into a calamity especially for a president with donald trump's reputation on the

world stage. david sen genk r of the new york times "writes this today, for a president with a loose relationship with the facts and poisonous relationships with allies, the attack on the saudi oil fields poses a challenge how to prove the administration's case that iran was behind the strike and rallied the world to respond. president trump must now confront that problem as he struggles with one of the most critical national security decisions of his presidency. over the next few days or weeks he will almost certainly face the reality that much of the world, angry at his tweets, tirades, untruths and accusations, could be disinclined to believe the arguments advanced by secretary of state mike pompeo and others that iran bears responsibility for the attack and that is where we start today with some of our favorite reporters and friends. with us from the "new york times" white house correspondent michael crowley. retired four-star general and msnbc military analyst barry mccaffrey is back.

jonathan lemire, white house reporter for the associated press. elise jordan, former aid to the george w. bush and our friend donny deutsch is back you and i tend to meet on these days of crisis, whether it's cocked and loaded, locked and loaded iran 2.0. whether it's the belikos tweets toward north korea rarely match the tone, tenor, and substance of hisia is an at

the elephant in the living room because war is really unpall unpalatable to everyone, and also the iranians. but they have decided to go to the mat. and i think at the end of the day, trump doesn't want to use military power and won't so he's in a real box. >> what culpability does the president have for being erratic in terms of foreign policy for sending love letters to kim jong-un, for pulling out of the iran keel but not replacing it with anything else what's the president's role in any of this? >> well, i think it's this widespread agreement that the president's behavior since he took office makes him an

unserious figure in international dip massf. they don't believe he will follow through we will have no allies at all if we elected to use military power. there's a widespread thought that mbs from saudi arabia wants war. he doesn't they have modern technology, but they have no real serious military capacity. and one can argue certainly that the president withdrawaling from the nuclear accord then started with maximum pressure the outcome that we're now looking at the iranians have got to do something. they've done it. the only way out for poor mr. trump is to give them a faith saving way out and get to the negotiating table. i don't think he will use military power nor do i think it will do anything but turn into a huge violent short struggle that will

devastate iran but that will serve no one's interest. >> you described something that we haven't seen trump do yet give them something that will save face is a complicated diplomatic mission and then bring them to the table which requires an attention and a focus that donald trump hasn't displayed. and just today in the clip we showed and the clip we read, he and mike pompeo not singing from the same song sheet. who does that difficult work that you just described, general? >> well, i've served in three administrations and watched the national security process in action and now it's gone. so there's literally no coordinating mechanism and as you have seen it in the national security council in the white house basement where you bring together diplomatic military intelligence economic tools to act in concert where you examine objectives and alternatives that's gone. this is mr. trump impulsive all the time and therefore, you know, i don't think right now general dunford,

chairman of the jcs who's got weapons experts on the ground in saudi arabia understands what the options could be we could go after their air defense system, the submarines, the irgc fast boats. we could definitely take military action. very few americans would be at risk and we might probably would ignite a shooting war in the gulf no one thinks that's a wise outcome. >> michael crowley, your colleague david senger with the front page piece in your newspaper this morning before this disparity between donald trump and mike pompeo. and it would just seem as if donald trump was trying to give us exhibit 11,000 or 12,001 in terms of that credibility problem that david senger who has written about this region including the one in which i served writes about. what is the sort of state of awareness of exactly what david

senger reports on today inside the white house? >> well, i think that, you know, david's excellent story really put its finger on an important fundamental point here it is a real problem that this president has. and by the way, i mean, obviously donald trump presents a unique problem with his repeated falsehoods almost on a daily basis. it, you know, damages his credibility in ways that become very dangerous when you have a national security crisis like this but there is as you suggested also a larger context from the iraq war especially when it comes to intelligence involving what exactly is going on in that particular part of the world so those two things are coming together and having almost a kind of exponential effect where there's going to be a lot of skepticism and doubt but having said that, you know, i would say in this case there are some signs that, you know, even president trump recognizes that's the problem

i mean, what i've seen from him in the last few days is actually somewhat uncharacteristically cautious rhetoric where he's saying we are still looking at this, you know, we think it's iran sometimes he goes a little farther i think the other day he said we basically know it's iran but he's trying to say we're collecting evidence. i think he is aware of that vulnerability he's facing right now. it's going to be a big part of his task next week to sell the world on the decided american version of events before he proceeds >> jonathan, what are you hearing from your sources? >> very similar. first let's say this this is one of the few things this president who has very few things that he's consistent about. but in this case he is -- this is something he does believe in. he is slow to actually use military action. we know him as a candidate, though he did of course, let the record be clear, he did briefly support the iraq war before becoming one of its most vocal critics. but he said that he didn't want

america to be entangled in these sort of endless foreign wars where he doesn't see the obvious win. he doesn't have the stomach for it and also doesn't think it's a good use of american resources we are seeing an administration talk out of both sides of its mouth. and it's not entirely by accident this is a president who first of all is not shy about contradicting his subordinates he he thinks it's good to sew confusion occasionally in the mind of his adversaries. he even believes in sort of the mad man theory of world leaders. like, they don't know what's coming and therefore they can't be prepared for it >> maybe that's true for american adversaries what about america's allies too. and certainly a moment like this where his rhetoric has been overheated even if it's toned down a little bit over the last couple days. but he's painted himself into a corner here. where it's threat or threat

there may be a spark whether it's because of something he says or someone anticipating what he's going to say or do and we may find ourselves in conflict or secondly if he eventually goes up that line but never crosses it, well maybe the iranians or somebody else will be enboldened to push down further. >> wrote about in their magazine piece about the sort of going back through three administrations and the history of the inside the policy debate and how close we've come in past presidencies to this kind of confrontation. it is exactly this theory that they reported out that you hear from former senior national security officials that it is established that donald trump doesn't want war, nobody wants war, he talks about that all the time but it is also established that his words are now meaningless on the world stage. and the united states whose words are meaningless doesn't necessarily mean that you avoid war in the end >> no. that's right

i mean, in fact the world becomes more dangerous when your words don't have meaning they are subject to ambiguity and interpretation and misinterpretation. so it's very useful when you can set clear boundaries and red lines. i think that jonathan is quite right that the president likes to dabble in this kind of mad man theory and keep him guessing, keep him off balance but the problem is when you are trying to make -- you know, boy who cried wolf then when you really do want to make a serious point and say this is my red line, this is what i'm going to do, this is where you can't push past. other countries don't know whether this is part of the -- whether this is part of the act or now you're finally being serious. so that's when you run into real problems, and that is a problem when the secretary of state seems to be saying one thing and the president says another it also among other things undermines the secretary of state's effectiveness when he's trying to go talk to our allies, coordinate them, and get them on

board, and they're wondering are you really speaking for the president and is what you're saying now going to be operative three hours from now >> elise, let me read you the response from iran this is to the conclusion that pompeo has largely been communicating that iran is responsible for attacks. iran's warning sent via the swiss embassy in tehran condemned earlier remarks by pompeo and other officials linking iran to the attacks in saudi arabia quote, iran's response will be prompt and strong and it may include broader areas than the source of the attacks. they said then the response would be rapid and crushing target more expensive areas. there have long been fears that iranian proxy forces in lebanon, syria, and elsewhere might attack u.s. forces in the region that is a tinderbox. >> iraniansare hinting at the

hell that would be unleashed, potentially if the horrible outcome is that the united states and saudi arabia end up at war against iran. in a way it's almost surprising that it took us this long to get to such a perilous point when you consider that this has been not just years in the coming but literally almost a year ago when donald trump decided to withdraw from the jcpoa, the agreement that we forged with an international coalition to stop iran's nuclear program. we pulled out of that claiming without evidence that iran wasn't in compliance and then it takes and then we enact these tough sanctions where we are punishing their economy. you see where this summer iran started to rachet it up in the gulf so now we are at this point where we have to choose do we continue along with saudi arabia a completely unreliable ally that we have followed into a

destructive self-defeating and immoral war in yemen do we continue more of the same and just keep following down that path, or has mbs gotten a little too far out ahead of his skis with washington >> let me just put that back to general mccaffrey. is there any sense that you have -- and i don't mean this in a snide or a snarky way. but do you think that donald trump is being briefed to the degree that elise just laid out the connection between the saudi-backed war in yemen? do you think in donald trump's mind he is tying all these pieces, these intricate jenga pieces in the middle east together >> no, not at all. he's had a lot of difficulty reading material he has a lot of difficulty listening to presentations i think increasingly as you get people like h.r. mcmaster out of the national security council, it's very tough to come in with contending views to any senior official, as you know. and with mr. trump, i think

they're going to expunge contradictory input. look, two observations one is the easiest thing to sort out will be forensic evidence on where this attack came from. there is no way we're not going to see signatures of the cruise missiles coming off the ground, communications, patterns, they've got unexploded immunitions to examine but we are going to know it was iran or some surrogate rapidly we probably know already second observation, this is not saudi arabia's problem since world war ii, we have been an absolute declared ally of saudi arabia so if we say, look, this wasn't our war, we might help you if you pay for it if we give them the indication they're on their own, everybody in the face of the earth is going to say that's it, you can't trust these people at all that's why it adds to the dilemma that mr. trump is now in >> two insights into the president one that got us here

and one that will tell us where we are going first, he is a classic ceo who likes to break everything before he got there so he can somehow fix, be a cero the thing that if you are not a hawk, you should feel very, very good about is donald trump doesn't want to go to war not for the left-brain economic reasons. he is ironically one of the most nonconfront -- on a smaller scale he never fires anybody to their face i am not going to use the word, but for all of his bluster and all this tough guy bravado, i'm not goeding him on here, when it comes time to throw the punch he is running in the other direction so that should keep us safe from war. now as far as in the world of diplomacy, how does that play, that is another issue. if you think about all the things he's done, how many bold moves has he done? not said things where he really put himself out there? none he got a tax plan through and he made stories about a caravan this is not a president that i

think has the stomach or the kahunas to do. and clearly nobody wants to do that make people feel safe >> we haven't talked much about the personal nature of the relationship between trump and kushner and the saudi royal family mbs donald trump stood out on the world stage for really buying mbs' story about the brutal murder of jamal khashoggi. how is that relationship playing into these deliberations, if at all? >> so there are a few things first of all, yes. this is a white house that has really wetted itself to mbs. they have made riyadh sort of the lynchpin the economics of the region. and they have given mbs the benefit time and time again. as you said the president practically was running interference for him last fall after the khashoggi murder coming up with any possible solution >> and the reason for that is you know is? >> money this is a business relationship. that is certainly a big part of it

so there are some ties there for sure and i think that they are proceeding carefully they are taking their queues from saudi arabia. that basically said we'd wait to see what saudi arabia wants us to do before we decide whether we'd actually hit back at iran or not which is an abdication of american self-interest and military might this is also going to play out significantly next week. the united nations general assembly is here in new york the president is going to be here for nearly the entire week. as can he rally the world behind what the nate wants to do or in this case perhaps what saudi arabia wants to do >> michael, let me give you two gentlemen the last word. michael crowley, are you watching foggy bottom to see if the state department backgrounds well what pom pepo meant, it was an act of war? are you getting some spin already from state or the who us that they're not actually on

different pages? where are you watching this story this afternoon? >> you know, i think -- i'm watching what the president is saying, first of all what's amazing about this president is there's a kind of transparency in the presidency you almost get in realtime his thinking through his comments and his tweeting and of course it can also drive you a little bit crazy in some ways the more you know the less you know because he zigzags all over the place but i think that you really have to watch them both you have to watch the president and you have to watch pompeo i guess the real answer to your question is watching for any distance between those two because it seems like pompeo is the kind of the person manning the store right now. you know we have a brand-new national security adviser who's got a lot of ramping up to do. it feels like pompeo is really the person driving the policy and influencing the president's thinking was today sort of pompeo speaking a little bit carelessly using a phrase that resonated in

a way he didn't expect or is there real daylight between him and trump? so i'm watching that >> it will be drama because it's one of the reasons that he got rid of john bolton his last national security adviser. my question to you and any thoughts on the same topiculd h? >> well, you know, i think one thing which is remarkabls e secf defense, what's mark esper saying, has there been a meeting in the oval office, secretary of state, treasury, it's just astonishing, there is no process that has given the president options. i think the comment about the saudis and we're going to wait and see what they want us to do. they are going to tell us not to attack iran. and the president will be able to use that as an explanation on why we've backed up from the ledge. but, look, are you an

ambassador's and probably largely unqualified. the great men and women of our time are not in public office right now. pompeo is a very smart man, very ambitious. he does have a lot of control over the president but at the end of the day we're drifting and there is no good answer right now if we ignore this attack on saudi arabia knocking out temporarily half their oil introduction, that's a signal to everybody in the region you can't trust the united states to stand up for us >> unbelievable state of affairs. we are so grateful to have to you, general mccaffrey, michael crowley and jonathan lemire. the sandy hook families are behind a stunning new public service announcement designed to jolt the gun debate in washington out of its stalemate. will it work we'll show it to you also a new patch of polls show two democratic candidates breaking out from the rest of

the pack as donald trump's political baggage gets heavier we'll go inside the state of the race to replace donald trump and the plot thickens, the director of national intelligence is now in on the stonewalling of congress, refusing a subpoena to disclose a whistle-blower complaint to congress all those stories coming up. so chantix can help you quit slow turkey.rkey. along with support, chantix is proven to help you quit. with chantix you can keep smoking at first and ease into quitting so when the day arrives, you'll be more ready to kiss cigarettes goodbye. when you try to quit smoking, with or without chantix, you may have nicotine withdrawal symptoms. stop chantix and get help right away if you have changes in behavior or thinking, aggression, hostility, depressed mood, suicidal thoughts or actions, seizures, new or worse heart or blood vessel problems, sleepwalking, or life-threatening allergic and skin reactions. decrease alcohol use. use caution driving or operating machinery. tell your doctor if you've had mental health problems. the most common side effect is nausea.

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today a new strategy, a new approach to the intractable indefensible stalemate in congress on the topic of gun control. democrats last night taking over the senate chamber to demand action as the number of mass

shootings across the u.s. thus far in 2019 has outpaced the number of days in the year 53 innocent people gunned down in last month alone. that's according to the "new york times." children taking part in active shooting drills as a new way of life in american schools >>the last i checked the constitution, it's our responsibility here in the senate and house to act. not to hide behind the skirts of the president. and the president we know has been spineless >> and it's wild to me how the republican leadership is so eager to advertise that the senate will do nothing unless president trump give it's permission >> we all have a responsibility to do the right thing and stand up to the nra and stand up to the greed and corruption that is in this country today that makes every decision about whether we have a vote on common sense gun reforms. >> the least we can do, this

isn't hard, guys is debate and vote, debate and vote is that hard >> i have two grandsons and a granddaughter that are now in school and the first new question that was asked when buying their backpacks was do you want a bulletproof backpack >> i can tell you this our kids can't do this they should not be asked to try to figure out how to stop these mass shootings in this country >> politicians offering their thoughts and prayers just doesn't cut it anymore it's put up or shut up leader mcconnell, senate republicans, what will you do? >> so mitch mcconnell, what he's going to do is insist that he's waiting on the white house >> i want to know what the president supports it's not unimportant to my members. >> what do you understand the -- stick points

>> what i would like to know is what he thinks would make some progress, and he would sign. and until we get that kind of guidance, we are in a holding pattern, so to speak >> h-mmm enter the one group of americans who would rather be doing just about anything else other than fighting for better gun laws the sandy hook families, moms and dads who lost their young children in the sandy hook school shooting on december 14th, 2012 their new public service message pushing the issue to a new uncomfortable place that sadly represents the reality of life for school-aged children who find themselves hunted at school >> this year my mom got me the perfect bag for back to school >> these binders help me stay organized. >> these headphones are just what i need for studying >> these new sneakers are just

what i need for the new year >> this jacket is a real must have >> my parents bought me the skateboard i wanted. it's pretty cool >> these scissors really come in handy in our class >> these colored pencils too >> these new socks, they can be a real life saver. >> i finally got my own phone to stay in touch with my mom. [ door opens ] [ footsteps ♪ >> if that made you uncomfortable, that was the point. children as young as three have active shooter drills in school. joining our conversation

democratic strategist basil michael and chief correspondent for "the new york times" magazine mark leibovich. what do you think? >> that was tough to watch, but it made its point. i'm not sure if it reaches the ears that it needs to reach, and that's the saddest part about it >> i appreciate my senators chuck schumer and kirsten gillibrand that she may have a unique ability to convince folks on the other side of the aisle that this is the right way to go, this is the right thing to do. sadly, i just don't see that congress is going to make the change that they need to but the one glimmer of hope is that we've seen a lot of activity in states maybe this convinces state legislatures and governors to act where the president doesn't. >> i mean, yeah. i mean it's all true the question is what is the political end game here? i mean does this move the needle at all it's obviously from a human standpoint extremely hard to

watch. i don't think anyone would deny that one thing i think we are seeing over the last six years or so is that after el paso and dayton, usually there is a bit of a sort of half-life to these things where the discussion around gun control or just some kind of gun law usually sort of, you know, burns out after three weeks or so this is continuing we are now, you know, halfway through september. and it does seem to be -- it's the single biggest issue if you certainly look at democratic voters and the democratic race and, i don't know, i don't see this stopping and obviously when you can do it through the eyes and through the mouths of children, you have a very, very powerful way of talking about it >> elise >> we are going to see the continuing cowardice of senator mcconnell to avoid a vote without donald trump stepping up and providing political cover. he doesn't want to risk any of the red state senators that he's got going up for re-election in 2020 if donald trump is going to come out and oppose or not sign

anything that potentially could get past so donald trump has to do something for anything to potentially happen >> first of all as a guy that did commercials for the 30 years of life, that was a brilliant piece of advertising they deserve a ton of credit i actually am a bit hopeful because i know donald trump is the ultimate transaction list. i think he's going to make certain pivots as we get closer to the general election. i think for him getting behind this on the one hand so he can play to the gun folks that way and he can play to the moderates as, look, i am the first president who did something. so for purely selfish political not because he's being affected by that commercial, i actually think might -- they know this is going to happen, and mcconnell is actually teeing it up it's not the senate coming to

him. it's almighty has decided that it might be time for some background checks. >> do any of you have elementary school kids? >> middle school >> here's the deal that's not an ad that's life for those kids and you talk to people in the mental health universe childhood and pediatric anxiety is through the roof. if you're going to say i'm not taking the guns off the streets, i'm not taking the guns from the people who have no -- a mass shooter doesn't have any hesitation walking in and carrying on a mass shooting in a school it's not just an ad. i mean, this is reality for american children. bulletproof backpacks are a thing. cell phones in class are a thing. a lot of kids have typed "i love you mom" thinking they weren't coming home. it's not just about an ad in an intractable debate >> so to that point anthat ad.

it doesn't ghettoize the debate. it doesn't take it away from this being an urban issue. when republicans are quick to say well look at chicago, well, not so much new york anymore, but look at other cities where you see this gun violence. that ad takes the debate for some to ghettoize the debate unfortunately we need to get to that point we've often talked about beto o'rourke and to what point did you raise. but if he's going to be on the presidential trail and only talk about guns and assault weapons, maybe that's what he needs to do to perpetuate this >> it's actually a completely apolitical ad. i'm sure there are a whole bunch of people say they are politicizing, they are being manipulative there is nothing political about it you mentioned beto o'rourke. i mean, beto o'rourke has -- i mean, for better or worse, sort of found a voice on this issue, whether it's going to actually translate into him making progress in the democratic race is another question.

he lives in el paso eight miles from where the walmart is. it's transformed him and his campaign it if not the trajectory of it beto o'rourke can respond to a resident issue, and this is as resonant an issue as there is. >> and he baited donald trump into a twitter war dummy beto made it much harder to make a deal really convinced many that dems just want to take your guns away. will continue forward. proving only that he also cannot read a poll or a -- >> he's echoing the criticism that o'rourke got from a loft democrats, a lot of democrats who have sort of been in the trench trenches trying to get some middle ground. it sort of piggy backs on that and looks sort of off opportunistic in a way do you think this issue is moving out of sort of the mach of stalemate and sort of into

people's guts? because this isn't just about being a victim i'm not trying to minimize that, but that is thank god not an experience everybody has but staring down a gun and having an active shooter drill over a fire drill is something >> you couldn't have said, okay, let's take the most americana places, a school, a mall, a rock concert, a sin fwog, and i think cumulative effect becomes important where people can personalize them it affected all of us. clearly somebody who goes to a synagogue has been affected more so i think that combination that it's hit so many kind of touch points, we are at a moment in time and i do believe the president's ego is going to work in our favor at this point. i think he is going to want that on his resume. >> i'm going to put all of you on the spot. feel free to pass. but anecdotally, i hear more and

more people saying that there are things they don't do anymore because of their fear, sporting events, amusement parks. >> i think very carefully before going to a concert i avoid if my kid loves ariana grande and that's her favorite, i'll go. >> after that i will find another excuse she doesn't know that, by the way. >> not really, but i think i have accepted the inevitability that i could get caught in a shooting the same way that, you know, i could be in a wrong place and that's a very bizarre way to think about your own country. >> it's really hard these days to go into a big crowded place, whether it's a baseball game or a movie theater without at least thinking about it. maybe looking for the exits and just wonder why hasn't this place been shot up yet >> i haven't changed my behavior, but people used to say they knew i was from new york because every time i stepped out of my front door, i always

looked both ways before i moved forward. my behavior is not going to change, but it's in me already >> and all of us when we come back, elizabeth warren and joe biden break away from the rest of the pack. we will go inside the democratic primary contest next with moderate to severe ulcerative colitis or crohn's, your plans can change in minutes. your head wants to do one thing, but your gut says, "not today." if your current treatment isn't working, ask your doctor about entyvio.

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i have to ask you about the selfie line thing. i realize this is now a thing you do at every event, every townhall. you stay after and take a picture with everybody who want to take a picture with you. last night it was four hours? >> so is the last guy? line. and he's in. he's all the way in this fight. >> elizabeth warren with rachel maddow talking about the energy and enthusiasm she's witnessing on the campaign trail. it's the kind of enthusiasm that could be partly explained by new polling that shows the massachusetts senator catching up to former vice president joe biden. these numbers from the latest

nbc news "wall street journal" survey that show warren widening her lead against the rest of the pack. warren at 25% has gone up 6 point since july while biden has also gone up 5 points to 31%. that energy in warren's crowds is echoed in the poll when asked directly 70% of democratic primary voters said they are enthusiastic or comfortable voting for her. and 64% said the same thing about joe biden. those numbers are -- if they're surprising they shouldn't be. this is pointing out on the campaign trail you do see her crowds and her performance as a candidate is flawless. >> and the big number in those polls, the enthusiasm poll where her numbers are up i think 15% and biden's are down 10%. it's clearly a two-horse race. it's hard to look at it any other way. and the pothat i want to see today is that as a binary choice between those two where you go because it's a simple choice between do we go from instability to the other side,

different form of newness and possible instability or do we go from instability to neutral and stability? i still believe human nature will take you to the middle of a situation like this. >> i would say it's not a two-horse race. i would say it's september. >> what's going to happen is going to change bernie at this point. we see the debates -- >> something always changes. >> between now and the primaries. there's debates and there's news coverage. nothing has really dramatically moved except for kamala going down and elizabeth warren going up. >> it's still early enough so that a lot of these other candidates will get some kind of look, whether it's in a debate, whether it's in how they run their campaigns. elizabeth warren is at a great, you know, five, six months. there is no question about it. and i think right now if you were to say, you know, who were the most likely nominees, you'd probably put the two of them there. but bernie's got a very, very solid following. he could come back. kamala harris who knows.

>> here are those numbers if you're in your car. joe biden at 31%. elizabeth warren at 25%. bernie sanders at 14%. mayor pete buttigieg at 7. senator kamala harris at 5. and andrew yang at 4. basil? >> well, it looks like one of the things i would say is it looks like everybody's in the lead those top three candidates. their support is pretty durable, which is very important. if you see elizabeth warren we talk about enthusiasm. that's really important because it's contagious. she just got i think the enendorsement of the working families over bernie sanders which is a huge boost to her. the numbers for joe biden in particular in terms of the african-american numbers is key. >> let me put those up. so joe biden among african-american voters is at 49%, almost twice the support that elizabeth warren -- or more than twice. i'm sorry, warren's at 13%, sanders down at 5.

i mean, so far ahead. and i don't know if you can tell, such a vital part of the democratic coalition. >> absolutely. i do wonder how much of that is reflexive in the sense that he was obama's vice president in that same poll 8 of ten voters said that they very much approve of the job obama did so that only helps joe biden. my only concern is that as we talk about his electability, so much of that hinges upon his support or being able to go after white working class voters. what i hope and the last debate performance on the question of african-american policy is what concerns me. i hope that he doesn't privilege going after white working class voters to the detriment of policies toward communities of color and african-americans considering he has so much support. >> there is something that is positive for warren even with the african-american numbers. if you go back to obama, until obama won iowa, reverend al said

to me a lot of african-american voters want to get behind a winner. she has got a very, very good chance in iowa and new hampshire. and that would change the math dramatically in south carolina. >> it was hillary that had all this african-american support. that switched when obama won iowa and then went to south carolina. but i do think going back to your earlier point, i even look at 2004. if you remember joe liebermann was leading initially. we had howard dean pulling the party a little bit to the left. and then who was the ultimate nominee? john kerry who was way down in the polls until the very end. >> elise, let me bring you into this conversation with a question about joe biden's strategy. he announced by taking a two-by-for you are to some of the ugliest acts of trump's isms. it would seem that biden is at

his best. >> elizabeth warren popped when she became one of the first national democrats to call for donald trump's impeachment. how key is this aggressive stance toward trump to the sort of rise and durability of the strength of warren and biden? >> democrats want someone right now who is going to fight and who is going to speak truth counter to what they're hearing every day, day after day from donald trump. my question is i've just been surprised to see the durability of joe biden's numbers. it's still so early, but in this media environment, he just hasn't been out there. he hasn't been doing the selfie line. he hasn't been putting himself really through the ringer and has been somewhat stage managed and careful. i don't think that's a strategy that you succeed ultimately against donald trump. although me probably -- >> it's working so far. it's just pre-season so i don't

want to get to ahead of my skis inevitability. >> i think biden has that. it's just they sense or democrats sense he can beat trump. i think the word is strength. he has a certain strength and gravitas about him that i think you need on stage against trump. i think that lets -- every time we say, oh, it's a fgaffe, it's irrelevant. >> what i would be really concerned about with biden's numbers, there's not that much enthusiasm other than the inevitability. i'm never going to ignore enthusiasm ever again after 2016. and the fact that he's not polling well nothing a lot of young people that, also is concerning to me. >> warren has not really been attacked. no one's gone after her in a debate. there's going to be i think a lot more scrutiny over the

record of her life. when we come back, another norm busted or an intelligence scandal in the making? the acting director of national intel defies a congressional subpoena for a whistle-blower complaint. we will bring you the latest.

more mystery today surrounding a whistle-blower kma complaint that the nation's top national security official is refusing to turn over to the house intel committee. that's despite a government watchdog calling it a credible and an urgent concern. today the director of national intelligence is refusing to turn over the complaint to the congress and refusing to testify as the house intel chairman schiff has demanded. we're looking at still more erosion at checks on executive

branch power and possibly more lawlessness as well. this is weird story. we don't know what the what is, we don't know what the secret is, but it is another example of the stone walling of congress being applied even the most sensitive national security agencies. >> yes. i think, though, it's part of a larger story which doesn't necessarily reflect very well on the democrats in congress. especially after things like the lewandowski hearing yesterday. i mean, there is a sense if not a disarray among the democratic caucus, a sense of toothlessness because it does look like the president and the administration has -- i mean every time they do this it makes it easier to do it the next time and this is the next step down that road. at a certain point you have to wonder do democrats have to play harder brawl here? >> lewandowski now they're threatening contempt. it ties into donald trump's approach to foreign policy. you know, if you cry wolf does

anyone -- do you think democrats are in that position? >> i think they could be. look, they don't have a sing you'llsingular strategy here. adam schiff he has a fairly, you know, direct way of talking about this. but at the same time they're not really going the next step which would be some contempt yesterday or any other number of things. >> because we're always glad to hear from our viewers we heard from sources inside the biden campaign and because they care what you say they say joe biden does indeed take selfies. he does 45 to 60 minutes affselfie taking after every event. >> well, when he's doing four hours -- it was something to be other night. for a politician to stay that long and take that many selfies and not be begging off to be heading back to their hotel room

or the house they're staying in the night. >> how late was it? >> they're not technically selfies. it's give your phone to somebody else to take your picture. >> i have to say i did not work on campaigns really in the age of a lot of people holding up selfies, but rope lines it is an important measure and important to these campaigns and we're grateful you're watching and in touch and we'll give you your 45 to 60 minutes of selfies any other week and any other campaign. we're going to sneak in our last break. e going to sneak in our lt break. my insurance rates are probably gonna double.

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i keep threatening to broadcast the breaks. it's too bad today wasn't one of those days. my thanks to most of all you for watching. that does it for me. mpp daily with chuck todd starts now. if it's wednesday are the u.s. and iran on a deadly collision course? the white house calls the attack on saudi arabia a quote act of war and the president says the ultimate option is on the table. and now the near constant question of whether we can trust anything from the president and his inner circle is becoming a bit more urgent. how team biden and team warren are taking shape.

welcome to