new york city this morning after a late night out at the ultimate fighting championship, a mixed martial arts bout he attended with some of his closest allies in congress. the president was greeted by a mix of boos and cheers as he took his seat. it's something the president has tweeted about. expert quoted that piece is going join us this morning. new information on what americans think about the ongoing impeachment investigation as another busy week of closed door depositions is slated to begin. the latest polling will tell us where the democratic candidates stand with the new hampshire primary as the democratic field gets smaller. up with me is clint watts, former fbi special agent, now msnbc analyst. professor at nyu law school,

clerk for sotomayor. and a daily podcast produced by wnyc studios. kyle cheney covers congress for politico. a week against in the impeachment inquiry. new details on what is at the heart of all of this. that is ukraine. how president trump sees the country may help explain why he was allegedly so willing to use it as a pawn to further his political ambitions. from day one tied to his belief in discredited conspiracy theories about the country's involvement in the 2016 election. it begins with a meeting with three of his top officials quote, they had barely begun their pitch when trump unloaded on them according to current officials with the meeting. in trump's mind, he said the entire leadership colluded with

the democrats to undermine his 2016 campaign. they tried to take me down, trump railed. more information on the president's views were shaped from, remember this, robert mueller's investigation. a treasure trove of documents under a freedom of information act request reveals tons of new details about interviews that undermine the mueller report. he had an assist from michael flynn who was also adamant russia was not to plame. all of this the documents, shedding new light on the president's thinking when he made that infamous phone call to ukraine's president in which he asked for a favor investigating the 2016 election and former vice president joe biden and his son. as for the white house meeting between president trump and president zelensky that was dangled as an incentive for

ukraine to cooperate, that is something president trump talked about just last night. >> i would love to have him come to the white house if he would like to come. and i think he would like to come. i think he would be here rather quickly. >> what we have read from buzzfeed and the "washington post" as well, what you have reported on capitol hill over the last few weeks. talk a bit about this. the formative nature of president trump's attitude toward ukraine, what we have learned here the last 24 hours. . >> well, i think the most important takeaway is the ukraine is actually not that separate from the mueller investigation that a lot of people put in kind of a separate box. these are linked. the president's views were shaped by paul manafort, a figure at the heart of the mueller investigation and some of what he is trying to do, the president is trying to do to get ukraine to investigate his rivals and investigate 2016 is a direct outgrowth of what the central players in the mueller investigation were telling him

and influencing him with. so i think these are in some ways one investigation that are connected through all of this. >> let me turn to you on this point. it seemed like the mueller report was in the rear-view mirror mirror or a lot of people here. but there is this connective tissue. it has been taking place between democrats on the hill about how narrow it is. focus on ukraine or draw inferences from the mueller report from longer history still. >> obviously there's a risk in going back and trying to link it up with the mueller report in that it is hard to explain in short sound bites how all of this connective tissue works. at the heart of all of this is the sense that ukraine is in the rear-view mirror retrospective but also in the windshield, prospective. the real focus and the right focus of this impeachment inquire where is if the president thought ukraine had something to do with the 2016

election, whether he was going to bring his office to bear on the 2020 election. that's what democrats will focus on. has he used executive power, has he used his office to pressure a foreign power with foreign aid to help him by rooting out scandals on a political rival. >> jason leopold of buzzfeed did this. you have 500 plus pages of documents. perhaps there are more to come. what do you take away from them as you skim through them? you look at paul manafort with rega regard to erik prince, qkilimni. >> the document is more frightening to me than the mueller report. it is gates's opinion and his recollection of those conversations. the national security adviser was general flynn. when i read that i am just horrified. not only did he seem not understand the capabilities of

the u.s. government and to discount them but talking about an alternative process that he could run all around the world like a lethal weapon movie. it was disturbing that he was in charge of national security. and paul manafort, who was a lobbyist in ukraine, pro-russian stances and pushing sway into the president's head. and if you look at every story this week, there is a bizarre-o alternative reality around ukraine, whether it's the president's attorney feed, attorney general barr going around the world, italy, uk, asking for dirt on our intelligence services to sort of harm them. it is this idea that the u.s. government and institutions don't know the truth and we have this alternative reality that we should base that on. that is fright epping. how do you have lieutenant

colonel vindman continue his job when this is the belief system now. . >> when you look back the last couple of weeks, we look at how aware they were of these beliefs. we have it in this piece in the "post" this morning. so much of that testimony is centered on the fact that people knew that the president had these views, knew what was going on. we have seep the attempts as testified to over the course of the last few weeks to offer that up or not escape the confines of the white house. . >> all roads, once again, lead back to vladimir putin. one of the things that got revealed this weekend where they were talking about kurt volker's deposition testimony, trump said in a meeting, ukraine isn't a real country. it really is part of russia. trump is helping putin

reconstitute the soviet union. . >> our laughter is audible. we have u.s. military advisers, state department, public diplomacy, us aid trying to help ukraine. and the president saying that is part of russia. they are all corrupt. you know who says that? russian state sponsored propaganda, bots and trolls. it is still a bogus propaganda narrative mostly fed from russia out into the world that is wholesale adopted by the leaders of our country. it's really strange. . >> something that comes across in this is the president's attitude on foreign policy. we have been piecing together of this being very transactional, permanent. to clint's point, what's coming across is people saying we do things for greater reasons than greater interests, global interests, and he seemed totally disinterested in that.

we have known that. >> that has been his mode up operan operandi. a real estate mogul from new york, getting stuff done with permits. obama was data driven, by the books, by the rules. this administration has been apathetic to rules, recordkeeping, any of it. the idea that you would believe these conspiracy theories about ukraine. ukraine is not a foreign country. there is data to suggest that ukraine is a recognized country. >> it is the real reason so many people who want trump impeached want trump impeached. it is not so explicitly about ukraine. he is guilty of the moral equivalent of treason, if you will. from day one, when he came down the escalator, talked about mexicans as rapists and all of that, he has given aid and comfort to white supremacists

and given aid and comfort to dictators around the world, enemies of democracy if they will be his allies. and so ukraine comes along and it's something concrete, that is provable, they can hang on him as maybe a crime. but it really comes down to the fundamental things about donald trump. >> kyle, take stock of where you are at this point on sunday looking ahead to this week. by the numbers, 23 subpoenas have been issued. 11 closed door depositions have taken place. two transcribed interviews. you talk about it decision time for democrats. where do things go from here? when do we see things become more public on capitol hill? >> in a matter of days, we will see notices go out that will start public hearings. this week we will start to see those. i think what democrats have realized is they are essentially

corroborating the basic narrative of the president's attempt to pressure ukraine, to investigate his rivals. and the witnesses that have come in provided really explosive and detailed testimony. at this point they are hearing the same story again and again. we have what we need to confirm that narrative. now it is time to tell that story to the american people in a way we haven't done yet. . >> obviously stuff is happening in the courts. there's the prospect of john bolton testifying on thursday. we will talk about that later in the show. how much more clarity is there on the democratic approach and what is being lit gated in the courts? >> it seems one of the reason it's decision time, the remaining witnesses out there they would like to come in are probably going to fight them and fight hard in a way that could take weeks or months to resolve in courts. they don't have that time or patience any more. john bolton is scheduled to come in later this week. no expectation he will show up.

four witnesses on the schedule for monday. i don't think any will show up willingness. . >> kyle, thank you very much for joining us of politico. doing great reporting with andrew dez dario. new polling data in the campaign from nbc news and the wall street journal. plus, she has a plan but is it a realistic one? what we could expect from national security adviser john bolton should he testify on thursday. that's up ahead. p ahead. p ahead. mended memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. liberty mutual customizes your car insurance, hmm. exactly. so you only pay for what you need. nice. but, uh... what's up with your... partner? not again. limu that's your reflection. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty ♪

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many officials have wrestled with this question the last few weeks, testify or not to testify? on thursday, a federal judge said, quote, we don't live in a world in which your status as a former executive branch official somehow shields you from giving information. the case could have an effect on whether other reluctant witnesses could be forced to testify. one is john bolton. testimony is scheduled for thursday, but his attorney said he will not volunteer voluntarily. he objected to the pressure campaign calling rudy giuliani a hen grenade who is going to blow everybody up. he said he would have to say in due course when he was fired or resigned and the president took this parting shot. >> john is known as a tough guy.

he is so tough he got us into iraq. he is somebody that i had a good relationship with. but he wasn't getting along with people in the administration. i'm sure he will do whatever he can do to, you know, spin it his way. how critical is it that they get testimony from john bolton at this point? >> i don't know that it is hyper critical. but he is a high-level official. he is a partisan. he is not necessarily in trump world, as entrenched as these other people are. he has been in past administrations. when he said i'm not going to be involved in whatever drug deal mulvaney and whoever else is cooking up, that means something. they want him on the hook. they want him to testify to the

unorthodox nature of foreign policy under this and particularly in relationship to ukraine. . >> i go to peggy noonan's column and she plays what might happen here. sheb go to capitol hill, be sworn in and be asked questions what he might say as a result of that? i'll quote a little bit here. public candor would take plenty of guts and could have repercussions. it might not just be powerful but explosive. history at least would appreciate it. let me ask you about his sense of history. his past and past administrations, his background, the import of saying something, talking about this outside of being a trump loyalist. . >> part of what is so amazing in this or his reported place in this is his previous place in history. because how quickly we forget during the george w. bush administration, he was the cowb cowboy. . >> i haven't forgotten.

he didn't care about international norms. he would go and throw grenades and spit on what our allies thought about the iraq war,s secret surveillance or anything else. but for john bolton to suddenly be the one who has a sense of decorum and playing by the rules is so unbelievable that it could be swaying to a lot of republicans around the country if he is the one who comes in and says rudy giuliani was cooking up a drug deal for ukraine. >> just look at the wall behind me if you could. mick mulvaney is still nominally at omb, acting chief of staff. clint watts reported he's in a tenuous position at this point. joseph maguire. acting homeland security for a few more days before somebody new comes in.

again, acting capacity. just running through the ranks. so many names, faces that you see up there are in the department of homeland security. take stock for us, if you would, just about the effects of john bolton's departure of a pivot point. a lot of people said under mulvaney's leadership things have gone looser still. that there is no control over this administration, over this presidency. >> i think when steve banton talked about the trump administration coming in it was called the death of the administrative state. there are many ways to do this. one, just not hire people or the people are hired to destroy the administration from inside-out. that was probably year ago. and also a series of acting individuals. i've never in my life not known who was in charge of different agencies. you can't keep track of it. which tells you there are no policies. their agenda is no policies.

we are not going to move anything forward. there is no one there to do it. imagine you're a civil servant in any of these agencies. you would go into a briefing and be like is this person even going to be here next week? what's remarkable in the last 6 to 9 months is u.s. institutions just moving forward. and so this begs the question, there wasn't a deep state, but did they make one the last two years by not issuing guidance, not having strategies like the 2020 election. you're seeing the nsa, well, this is what we are going to do. dhs, this is how we protect the elections. but they are not integrated like we are used to as a government. there is no strategy around it. and you don't have congress demanding action in a unified way. we are literally -- do we have the best people in our country in advertently moving the county

forward. >> this is trump setting himself as a strong man. i alone can fix it. seems like a theatrical line from the 2016 convention. it seems to be the way he is actually governing. he is his own communications director. he doesn't need a chief of staff because now he doesn't need a war room to fight impeachment because his twitter feed is his war room coming out of he alone. and i think it is scary. . >> it is scary. joseph o'connell at stanford law school has done terrific worbgts talking about the vacancies. with the legal movements, most americans don't know what the administrative state is. it's how you get your passports and basic things. we wouldn't be able to have a

functioning government. yet there is deep skepticism of it. we have an administration that is hell bent, of eviscerating it. >> who can be an acting person in this administration. . >> exactly. >> 100 days before the primary, we are crunching the numbers on medicare for all. making a promise that could leave her kul initial. kate mckin onchanneling steve kornacki. >> we're talking trillions. you know when the numbers are this big, they're just pretend. . >> sorry, senator. i'm going to need to see the math on that. . >> oh, yeah. you want to see the math? i'll show you. look at this here. yeah. do you understand this? i do. i could explain it to you, but you'd die. >> tech: don't wait for a chip like this to crack your whole windshield.

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but the medicare for all is the phoemos most. it will be paid for by new taxes on billionaires and big business, $800 billion cut to the defense department's budget. joe biden's campaign responded saying senator warren is low balling its cost. she defended the plan again last night. >> it is president obama's economic advisers who have said we can have medicare for all by one penny. medicare or all bills on the basic structure of obama care. it gives us the same payments it of the federal government, state government. for employers, the big difference is it takes costs

paid for by families and moves it away so families end up paying nothing. >> author of the book "sick." what's the question of what it is going to cost. you have simon johnson gave it his moderate. give us your take away the math behind it. >> her numbers add up on paper. she has broken her report into two dissent parts. first she tells us what she thinks it is going to cost. a lot of decisions, for example, what the government will pay, not just drug makers. about 20 1/2 over 10 years.

it's money we already spend on health care. is that how much the new system will cost. she said, all right, i told you $25 trillion. taxes on the weighing they, business businesses. >> how much does it complicate things for to see how effective they might be? >> it complicates them a lot. she's gone very well respected people to vouch for each part of the report. a lot of experts will question how optimistic it is.

look at what it will cost. that is a lot less than what many experts think the system would cost. there's a number of reasons for that. she says, look, we're going to pay hospitals a little bit more than they currently make for medicare. bg make a case that is a good thing. hospital prices are widely believed to be very high, much higher than they need to be. in the real world, can you get the savings? can you push the hospitals that much? can you do it in a way, get it through congress where hospitals are incredibly powerful politically. and can you do it in a way that you don't cause problems and layoffs and closures.

>> the chances of this passing are slim. why do it? >> there is a low chance this gets passed by congress she is trying to stake out herring position. this all goes back to her training as a law professor. focus on consumer bankruptcy. this goes directly to her roots. she is trying to peek to the american people. >> there is a lot of political risk. there was pressure for her to do this. she was hammered on the debate sta stage. you're opening yourself up.

. >> right. she has been less straightforward than bernie sanders who said in debates and elsewhere, yes, there will be tax hikes but you will come off better in the end. she is trying to do it differently, it seems to me. she is trying to avoid a tax hike, get the revenue on corporations, employers, in the wealthy. i'm going to be interesting to see when they get on stage together again later this month how the plans compare to each other. they are trying to pay for the same plan differently. >> appreciate it. conspiracy monkers, racists and spice. new insights into who appears in

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this is "up". i'm david gura. in the "new york times", a multipage story section unto itself on the twitter feed and underlying dangers associated with what he has conveyed in 11,000 tweets and retweets. president trump whose own tweets have warned of plots against him

accuse house speaker nancy pelosi of treason has helped spread a spread a current of suspicion and distrust of facts into the political mainstream. it is about who has been able to influence him and make 66 million followers. retweeting suspect accounts without regard for identity or motives, he lent credibility to anti-muslin bigots, vb nationalist, anonymous account promoted worshipping the devil and child sex trafficking. you heard me right. clint, something you say in the piece, this is so easy to do. it is so easy to manipulate the president in this way. anybody can do it from anywhere. and as brian, all of us know, you shouldn't read your mentions -- he does read his mentions. that's where a lot of this bubbles up. >> which does the president

spend more time reviewing, intelligence briefing or twitter? my money would bet he looks at twitter more. so when you look at how leaders shape their possible views, their agenda each day, if you have the ability on the your house or as a foreign country to mom board that twitter feed you tend to believe that which you see first, that which you see the most. it doesn't have to be true. you can shape people's views around that. it is an incredible power for a foreign country, lobbyist group or anyone with a twitter account to be able to aim that. even if he is passively going through it. and you look to, okay, i'm in the administration. i work in intel, health care, law enforcement or any of these places. i can't even get access to push a policy agenda. you have to start reinventing how you influence policy for the country which is a little bit disturbing. the other part is maybe the president doesn't understand the

very basic and openly available analytics package available for twitter, facebook or any of these things. you can download content. you can adjust your message to be more important. i could easily tell all you have to do is ingratiate yourself to the president and he is likely to amplify you. what are the key words will i use on this? i will run it on the dark web. it costs me almost nothing. and i may get my agenda out there. it is how power and influence are coming about. whether it's prison reform. we were talking about armenian genocide. who are the influencers? kim kardashian. really change the way we are conducting governess in this country. >> he's a guy who had inclination toward and affection

for conspiracy theories for a long time. he trades and traffics in that as well. . >> well, i think from reading the stuff in this "times" article it reinforced him. there is a cycle of him putting out the worst of itself. twitter is populated by the most opinionated and agenda-driven people. one of the things in the article is he gets the most likes for his bashing of immigrants, of the nfl which means bashing black players who kneel against police brutality. and bashing the mueller investigation. so his instinct to elevate racism and to demean democracy, meaning the mueller investigation, are reinforced in him. and on and on we go.

>> if you lend an ear to the rallies, he is doing ad hoc polling of the audience, coming up withing some, wanting that immediate gratification. >> i think that's the most disturbing thing. you have heard on a number of occasions him tweeting having a mandate. i don't think it is coming from electoral politics. it's coming from twitter which may not reflect the will of the people, but more of bots or foreign country. it is a complete lack of discipline and the unorthodox nature of this administration. bots with china and iran retweeted that. >> we saw the russians were fore runners as a nation. they created acts that look and talk more like americans. if you look the last four years,

you have seen, russia, china, iran that are big ones. maybe israel, saudi arabia are jumping into this. the political action committees, political campaigns, i really admire twitter. i thought it was a great decision. look who is angry. the white house is angry. it's funny they are like, oh, why wouldn't we be able to bombard people with proof began da. anybody with enough money can buy a news outlet, create a social media campaign. we have seen russia and afternoon taken around. this really plays to authoritarian power and thosepe they are showing no signs of slowing down. we'll have an update next. ing dn we'll have an update next. coughing

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no, just a sec. what would it look like if we listened more? could the right voice, the right set of words, bring us all just a little closer? get us to open up? even push us further? it could, if we took the time to listen. the most inspiring minds, the most compelling stories. download audible and listen for a change. >> this is "up". i'm david gura. over the last few months, mass protests have broken out in countries around the world. people pored out to protest the

environment in iraq. the prime minister offered to resign. caliperry is with me in new york, reporting from beirut. spent a lot of time in baghdad we will. >> you can tie them through kpheubgs. you can make an argument they are also in economics. that is more political. beirut and baghdad, equally driven protests. think about iraq. saddam hussein was killed 13 years ago. in 13 years, they have been through two wars, one of which lost a generation. now is in a situation where you have hundreds of millions of dollars in oil revenue every day that is not making it to the people who are protesting. add to that a u.s. president who is saying the u.s. should have gone for that oil in iraq, protecting the oil in syria.

extremism rises from where it has betrayed people, where it has failed. the last thing i would add is the common thread is this is the new cold war with iran. the u.s. withdraws from the duke hrar agreement with iran. the u.s. is not showing up. iranian proxies and the iranian influence is only growing. >> you look at chile, protests because of the prizing costs of transportation. lebanon. >> what's up. >> a thumb in the eye of people in the countries. . >> a younger generation that is sick of the status quo. part of this is access to the economy. when we start talking about elizabeth warren and bernie sanders we are getting to these common threads. this is what's happening around the world. a lot is the have and have notes. that is the best video in beirut. it is tripoli.

it is people rallied around the lebanese flag and not around sectarian flag, the lebanese unfortunate history. but, again, these are places where the u.s. should be. you can make this for hong kong. you have young kids on the streets protesting for democracy. >> melissa, how do you react to all of this? protests happening in so many different places and yet you don't see the same kind of protests. >> that's not true. we are eight years away from occupy wall street. we had our own version. it wasn't as extreme. i think you're exactly right. young people want access to the economy. they are worried about the cost of health care, worried about access for themselves and their children. it is not as extremely lly as we are seeing. government corruption. yeah, we got that. we're good on that.

>> there are other themes we will ceman fest itself. >> climate certainly. >> climate is top of the list. they are driven by climate. this next generation, not all the old people at this table. >> speak for yourself. >> how protests take place, you know, in the virtual realm. >> it is significant. i find it interesting in the news right now, we got excited. not so excited now. reset many years later. maybe all of these protests didn't amount to what we thought they would be. it is a huge driver for mobilizing and populist. it is very remarkable how this played out in social media in china. hey, these protests are not legitimate. we need to push them down.

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if you look at the poll numbers, if you look at the poll numbers in the swing states, they're saying don't do this. don't do it. >> president trump waking up today in trump tower. if he wants mom numbers, this is the right place. we will bring you brand-new data on what americans think about the ongoing impeachment inquiry, the latest poll from numbers news and the wall street journal. he got a preview of that last night in madison square garden in new york. some boos and some cheers at a ufc bout last night. if you heard more boos than cheers or more cheers than boos, probably reflects where you stand on impeachment.

another big week of closed door testimony. top lawyer for the national security counsel in many of the testimony so far, we understand. he told lieutenant colonel alexander vindman not to talk to anyone about the concerns he had with ukraine's president. it was eisenberg who led the effort to move the memo to a more secure server. we expect eisenberg will refuse to testify. on thursday we could hear from the man who would be the biggest wild card of all the witnesses so far. john bolton, whose departure was acrimonious to say the least. a key figure in a lot of discussions about ukraine. for those hoping the disgruntled former trump official will unload on president trump, it may be more complicated than they expect. up with me garrett haake, joel payne, joe wine banks, author of

watergate girl. joining us from washington is peter baker, chi. let's start with the testimony on thursday. still an open question. so much of this testimony is. you have written about this, reported on this. how seismic that testimony might be should it happen. . >> well, right. should happen is the big question. the first question is whether or not he gets subpoenaed. if he gets subpoenaed, as the lawyer has said, the lawyer will presumably followed the same tact they have taken with kupperman. hey, the white house says don't talk. congress says talk. you as a judge should tell me which i'm supposed to do. if you were actually to get in front of investigators, there's a lot of things to ask about. ask about the july 10th meeting when he apparently grew quite upset to gordon sondland about

leaking investigations to benefit the white house. he told his aid -- he said i don't want to be part of any drug deal by mulvaney, sondland. they want to ask about his opposition to the july 25th phone call that took place between president trump, president zelensky of ukraine. they will ask him about the money that was suspended for ukraine security aid, what he knows and how that was linked if at all to conditions. mick mulvaney, chief of staff, did tell us at a briefing, it was late, too, among other things, whether they wou things,. he took it back. a lot of things they want to ask john bolton about. >> the incomes will be lifted off in a second. i'll interrupt you when that happens >> there's a little bit of a

wish list here on some of the witnesses being called. democrats put out the word they wanted to have rick perry come on wednesday. perry quickly knocked it down. i could ask taylor swift out on wednesday. doesn't mean it's coming. democrats want to get out of this phase as fast as they can. the sooner they can move to public paergs, the sooner they can move to get this forward. better to invite everybody to say you tried, say you subpoenaed them, add that as evidence to the obstruction file they seem to be putting together. and try to move on. >> let's skip to the public opinion. 53% of americans in prove of the inquiry inside. 44% disapprove. 44% are oppose to the president's re-election. joel payne, let me turn to you

on this. how surprising are the numbers. >> you can write off people like me, a partisan, democratic hack. but the people in the middle, the people in the middle of the country and the people in the middle politically and also those anxious trump voters who support the president because they like his judicial nominees or, you know, they didn't like hillary clinton. that's when you will see panic rise up in the white house. what's your sense the degree to

which that is important to her going forward. she is watching this. to joel's point, no republicans came to vote on that thursday. >> nancy pelosi has been brilliant how she has handled this, slowly and carefully. she needs to continue to follow public opinion. an impeachment is a political act. and you need public support. during watergate, public support grew as the public got the facts. the hearings started before impeachment. it was senate hearings when the facts came out. they were already primed with information before impeachment started and in between came the indictment of all the colleagues naming the president unindicted

co-conspirator. >> when you listen to republicans in the house, the senate, it has been on critique of the process. we're going to see some of this happening in front of tv cameras, the facts are going to come from and center. >> we'll see. to me they look lying election numbers in 2016. nancy pelosi said you cannot do impeachment unless you have specific public support. the pheramerican people have to in lock-step. the central facts here aren't really in dispute. the call, the meetings, the threatened quid pro quo. if vindman shows up again in his full military regalia, seeing

those people express concern, you forget about the behind closed doors once you see it in the flesh. whether that's enough to significantly move public opinion i'm not so sure. >> you are looking back at recent history. draw the connection to what polling was like around when bill clinton was being impeached. how much does that align to what we saw in '97, '98. >> there are some similarities, some differences. there was never, ever support for removing president clinton from office of a substantial nature. never enough to overcome the burden that is a a little bit

act. never enough to overcome that burden. the public disapproved over what president clinton had done. they believed he lied to them, under oath, many of them did but didn't think it rose to the level of high crime or misdemeanor. his own job approval stayed high throughout. they were above 60% throughout the entire 13 months of the starr investigation into the monica lewinsky trial. it peaked in december 1998. 72%, 73%. they didn't approve of his actions. personal numbers were low. president trump never had that kind of support, not even a single day of his presidency of the majority of the public. these reflect the rock solid strong held views in one camp or anything. you are pretty close to where you were in 2016.

it has not changed substantially since then. >> 53% disapprove of the job the president is doing at this point. >> absolutely. two numbers that jumped out to me. the 17% number about those who, depending on the nominee, are either certain to oppose or certain to support the president. that's a really significant number. i would imagine trump world, which i always laugh at when i say trump world. >> again, those are people in the middle. that includes, by the way, anxious republicans and moderates and independents, right? if you're going to vote depending on the nominee, you have predisposed yourself to saying i might support donald trump. that's probably a number that will make the biden campaign feel good. or buttigieg. if you're warren ar sanders, it

probably creates a little bit of heartburn. >> there was a piece in the "washington post". you had this lunchtime meeting on wednesday this week during which a lot were saying, maybe we're cool. we can condemn the quid pro quo. we're not going to say that is an impeachable act, illegal act. but we are okay with that having happened. we are talking about it in a different way. i want your reaction to that. >> what's important is for americans and members of congress to put it into context. it was not an isolated phone call. it was preceded by a lot of meddling on the part of giuliani and others. >> and the meeting july 10th. >> exactly. there is a whole history of we're trying to get something from ukraine that we don't deserve, that we shouldn't ask for. we are asking for something out of it.

i wish we would take kwequid pr quo out of it. >> take out the latin. >> it is i'll give you this if you give me that for the benefit of our countries, not for my personal benefit. i also want to go back to statistics. nixon had 49 out of 50 states he won. overwhelming landslide in the popular election. same thing for clinton. donald trump has never, ever achieved anything like that. so he starts the whole process in a very different place than anyone else has. he's never even reached 50%. i think we have to view the opportunity that is presented by having public hearings to sway, as you were saying, the people

in the middle. the people who said i didn't like hillary. i don't like him. but maybe i'll sit this one out. now they have an opportunity to say i'll see what happened when i sat it out >> how wide is that between the house and the senate side on capitol hill looking at public response, going back to what they are considering. that is. >> all of them will be on the ballot in two years. so many districts are not even remotely competitive. saying with trump is just a pure matter of survival. on the senate, it's a little bit different. you talk privately with senators, most don't have any particular love for donald trump. he's not a creature of washington. he's not one of them. but he is the guy they're with now. they are sort of stuck with him. they will try to manage around

him. that's what you see in the "washington post" reporting. unless and unless it becomes more palatable to be rid of him. that is unlikely given the support we outlined from his base. he is a problem to be managed just anything else. if he were to come out and say, i blew it. i apologize. there has been no cleanup like we saw with bill clinton. if he tried to, i think you would have a whole bunch of republican senators saying, okay, see, this was bad but not impeachable bad. >>. >> i would hold up the special section today. he read the 11,000 tweets and categorized them and worked with the data team on the "new york times" as well. however does he apply this, the president, apply this to this ongoing impeachment battle? he is so proudly the war room

unto himself. >> this is his cannon. his behavior and attack on his opponents. i think the survey was eye opening. it tells you things you think you know and categorize them in a way that is really powerful. half of his tweets the last three years as president have been attacks on others. 1,700 have been promoting conspiracy theories. 2,000 were praising himself. you have seen an uptick in the volume of it. this is just part of a witch-hunt, a continuation of the effort to get him from the mueller investigation. he will defend himself, attack. sometimes his own republican

colleagues for not defending him enough, which puts pressure on them to the point we were just talking about. it is the number one tool in his arsenal. clinton did not purpose in effect in the public debate over his behavior except to apologize and say, look, i should have done better but shouldn't be removed. broadly, he left it to his team and tried to present himself as somebody above the fray. president is right there in the fray. twitter is the way he does that. >> always good to talk to you. thank you very much. peter baker join us this morning. up ahead, the 2020 democratic race gets real. we have new numbers. who is up, who is down, who walked away altogether as americans prepare to head to the first of the nation state in just 100 days. that's next. in just 100 days. that's next. ahhhh! giving one. the lexus december to rembember sales event lease the 2020 nx 300 for $329 a month for 27 months.

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this is "up". i'm david gura. we are one year out from the 2020 election. still a considerable number of contenders trying to take on donald trump in the general election. these are brand-new numbers out moments ago from our new nbc/wall street journal poll. as you can see, biden, warren, sanders still lead the horse race with tkroubl digits.

double digit. more bad news for the trump campaign, the president trailing the leading democrats by nearly 10 points in hypothetical head-to-head matchups signifying the durability of biden's and warren's candidacies. vaughan hillyard in iowa. the same a lot of days until the primary in new hampshire just about. take stock of these numbers. you had a busy weekend in iowa. a lot of candidates were there friday night. moved on through the weekend. overlay the anecdotes you saw in these numbers, vaughan. >> yeah. i think the next three months we can decide amongst ourselves do you want to look at the national numbers or what's happening in iowa? it is its own isolated place. they are getting their news from the des moines register. we're in davenport right now.

when you are a candidate like pete buttigieg making your way through the areas, you're connecting directly with the voters here on the ground. quite frankly, the numbers here in iowa are different than the ones here nationally. pete buttigieg, bernie sanders, joe biden, elizabeth warren essentially all within the margin of error, one, two, three, four. we were at a steak fry in cedar rapids yesterday. there is a campaign for pete buttigieg that is hard to deny. by far the biggest presence with elizabeth warren a close second was that of pete buttigieg.

they have a large amount of cash on hand to keep operations going. strike that in contrast, david, in iowa this is a real opportunity in which you see this is a place he could really make a play come just three months from now february 3rd. >> that's hard to quantify. iowa is a thing unto itself. the polling takes on a different color when how you poll for caucus us. >> totally. his point is that iowa exists in its own political bubble. it is somewhat designed for late movers. just historically. democrats and republicans. i worked for john edwards. he made a late move. 2008, barack obama kind of made a late move. rick santorum. the dna of that place is we kind of like to pick the dark horse at the last minute.

they like to go counter culture to what the trend lines are. it is starting to reflect the organizational might. they have invested so much. i'm sure you know from traveling in the early states. even someone like klobuchar who made that midwest appeal. her numbers are starting to spike. that's interesting. she fills the middle vacuum you were talking about in the break. >> up three percentage points. talk about how that infrastructure matters. >> if you don't win in iowa or new hampshire, you're in trouble. his coalition is not particularly diverse. it gets harder and hard tore see

where he picks up a win. the candidates who have spent the most on infrastructure in iowa include cory booker, who doesn't really appear in the poll. it can be tough to move things on the ground. it reflects national trends and not vice versa. you don't see what's happening in iowa influencing the national numbers. klobuchar had a nice debate. and the other thing, new hampshire is iowa picks corn. new hampshire picks presidents.

>> in 2008 i campaigned for hillary in iowa. it is a very different environment than anywhere else. it depends on personal contact with the candidate. and there is an independence of judgment that i think is a little unique in iowa. ground support is really important. what i found is when i got to the caucuses, the people on the ground for the clinton campaign weren't really prepared for what happens if she's the number two person and when the revote takes and you have to approach the delegates and say, this is why you should support me. and they really weren't prepared. although they had little talking cards.

>> thank you very much. coming up, more breaking news. stunning moment on the morning shows. one of the most ardent defenders on the simple question, was there a quid pro quo. we will do it one more time. i know jill doesn't want to. that's next. that's next. it's tough to quit smoking cold turkey. so chantix can help you quit slow turkey. along with support, chantix is proven to help you quit. with chantix you can keep smoking at first and ease into quitting. chantix reduces the urge so when the day arrives, you'll be more ready to kiss cigarettes goodbye. when you try to quit smoking, with or without chantix, you may have nicotine withdrawal symptoms. stop chantix and get help right away

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>> a stunning moment a few minutes ago. kelly an conway refused to answer whether a quid pro quo on cnn. >> can you say definitively no quid pro quo. >> no quid pro quo in this call in terms of the president -- >> were there eight of them. where are they. >> beyond the call. just in general. in general. as a matter of policy and events, was there a -- >> was he? . >> i'm asking you. >> he never said to the president, do this and you will get your aid. it's not here. nobody ever thought we would release the transcript. ladies and gentlemen, you can all see it. go read it. >> not a transcript. the white house's record of that call. we have heard from witnesses on capitol hill there were some edits to that record from the

white house. jill, perhaps dana bash was listening to you. it is beyond this phone call. we get distracted by the quid pro quo phenomenon. . >> exactly. you don't view evidence in a vacuum. this evidence is clear to me when you read, and i wish everyone would actually read the memo that was released. and then it will be supplemented by whatever vindman and others who were in the call say. we know for sure vindman said there was an extra mention of biden and that there was a mention of the company that joe biden's son worked for. those were things omitted from it. but standing on its own face, it says enough. but it's way more when you look at what proceeded it and what followed it. they knew congress voted the money. they knew why. so when you are sitting next to the president and you're asking did he pressure you and you need

his help, you're going to say no. but that doesn't mean it's true. >> what do you say to the republican who sees all of this, listens to kellyanne conway and says there is no crime here. that is not essential of course. not essential to bringing impeachment charges. a campaign finance violation that seems very clear to me. >> yes. the question is whether that is impeachable or criminal. there is a criminal violation for sure. he asked for something of value to his own personal benefit from a foreign power. you cannot take anything from a foreign government, period, that's it. but he also probably he violated the hobbs act, when you act under color of law to get something, that's a crime. so there is more than one crime he committed. he was endangering world security. not just ours.

ukraine was very much endangered by russia. the beneficiary of his request was russia. they want to get more power in ukraine. that's what he was enabling. you have to look at the full context before, during, after. you see there was annism peachable defense and criminal defense. >> there is the transcript. >> who would do that. >> it is pretty tone deaf over the course of the week. the aelipses. transcript, transcript, transcript. we have learned so much about the holes. >> well, our reporting has indicated that the changes to the memo are not so substantial to change the theme of it.

so i wouldn't too much about it ellipse his. when we started with the memo from the phone call, it was bad enough. one of the things they have illuminated, all the things that led up to it. the policy work on the ground and ukraine, folks aware that rudy giuliani and others were meddling in foreign policies months and months before this phone call, this other meeting in early july, it suggests, and i think this was the question dana bash was getting it in this interview, this wasn't just a one-off with the president of the united states. this was the policy of the white house. the u.s. government policy and the policy of individuals operating in the white house were not in alignment. >> deul tracks. >> yeah. . >> jill, to your point, too, this is part of the way democrats have tried to frame this as national security argument. he thought ukrainians were going to die because of this. that was his concern. it is the front line between the

west and russia. to the degree that democrats have focused on that framing, that's how you get around whether or not this is a crime. nobody has to be charged here. it is not a criminal matter. if you can make the argument successfully that the president endangered national security with this shadow policy contrary to official u.s. government policy, that is a politically criminal act, if you will. >> i will put the whistle-blower, he or she needs to come out. we need to know who he or she is. what's the efficacy of this point, hearing more, why is he seizing upon this now we have the corpus of information that garrett was describing a moment ago. >> he needs an opponent. and he would love to take whatever i think is this

courageous person who said, hey, i'm trying foul on this. he would love to turn him into the opponent. and the people in florida sitting awaiting trial on house arrest. i think what you are seeing is a republican pivot. rank and file republicans on capitol hill, the house and the senate said you have to give us better tools to defend you with because we've got nothing. we have nothing on process. that was a sham. we have nothing on the actual law. all of these people corroborating are republicans. this isn't the dnc advisory board. these are republican trump appointees. so i think what you are seeing is the white house trying to create some room and sand box

for the few republicans willing to defend him to do that effectively. >> we will leave it there. nixon couldn't proeuz congress with a road map of sorts. up next, then versus now. what we can look to for guidance as they walk down the turbulent path once again. own the turbule path once again. but allstate actually helps you drive safely... with drivewise. it lets you know when you go too fast... ...and brake too hard. with feedback to help you drive safer. giving you the power to actually lower your cost. unfortunately, it can't do anything about that. now that you know the truth... are you in good hands?

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410-4, to grant broad subpoena powers to the house judiciary committee in its inquiry into the impeachment of the president. >> on this vote, the yeas are 232, the neys 196. the resolution is adopted. without objection, the motion to reconsider is laid upon the table. >> this is "up". i'm david gura. the dean of uc berkeley law school writes this in the los angeles times. the procedures to be followed are much like those used in the clinton and nixon impeachment proceedings where there was less fact-finding in the clinton impeachment. down right speedy. 11 days to formal inquiry. nixon was 599. and clinton, 260.

a tkweufpd professor of history at american university joins us from washington, d.c. help us out with the parallel. >> every impeachment is different. let me tell you the critical lessons from past impeachments. as you saw, you cannot put a timeline on impeachment. critically remember the nixon investigations, which went on for so long, began as an investigation of the watergate break-in and possible coverup. where did it lead to? illegal wiretaps. illegal break-ins. illegal attempts to rig elections. illegal campaign finance violations. and contempt of congress by nixon. so it went in all of these different directions. and it was the accumulation of all of these transgressions that

ultimately moved quite a few republicans to put patriotism above party. a third of the republicans in the house judiciary committee voted for at least one of the articles of impeachment that the committee recommended to the full house. we are barely into this investigation. there could be entirely new lines open. we just learned some startling things from some of the release of the mueller material. the house has not yet seen financial records of donald trump. and of course you can have an impeachment and trial during an election year. the trial of andrew johnson occurred in the election year of 1868. >>. >> you remember those 599 days well. how do you think with your own personal history looking at this. these areally days, allen is saying.

who knows what else could be wrapped into this. >> i agree with everything he said. i think we are in a situation where in order to capture the public's attention and keep it and focus them, there a has to be some focus. this administration does something wrong almost every day. as organized crime prosecutor when i first started, you could investigate every day because every day is something new. you have to say enough is sufficient. i've got a good case. right now the case seems to be obviously eukraine is very effective. syria was pulling our support from the kurds seemed to be something that people got that it threatened national security. that's another one. all of them have to be put in

context. another is contempt of congress. his is way more than nixon's. he is not letting normal oversight happen. we can't investigate immigration. those things have to happen if we maintain checks and pwhals and three separate branches of government. i think that has to be recognized. and the mueller report cannot be ignored. that has to be one of the object instructions charges. all three articles of impeachment against nixon apply right now here.

you see the two democrats peeled off. you see the independent who came of on the democratic side. what does it tell you? >> i don't think it tells us that much about the vote for articles of impeachment. here's the reason why. the two democrats said they are keeping their eyes open and watching what the investigation turns up. for the republicans, imagine you are a republican who is concerned about what the are president has done. you think it might be impeachable offense. why vote now on this procedural vote and object yourself to the next month or two months by the president, supporters, fox news over and over again. when really all you are doing is a setting the rules on the procedural vote.

if you are actually concerned about this, just -- by voting no, you essential turn the temperature down on yourself and continue to see how the investigation plays out. . >> it strikes me they are had he embracing the obstruction case at this point as we talk whether or not john bolton the appear as it plays out in court. they recognize it bolsters their case. . >> absolutely one comparison to clinton in '97, '98 is the fact that democrats were given room to censure and disagree with clinton's behavior. it is not being given because the president doesn't have political discipline or common sense that you need to acknowledge some fault here. if the president said, you know what, my bad, i shouldn't have done that. i'm not saying all the democrats would lower their spears and say, okay, we're all set. but at least republicans would have room to work with. that is the clear difference between 98 and now. these republicans do not have room to disagree with this president or they're going to

get stomped out, as garrett talked about. >> allen hreubgt man, a super computer built in, democrats are concerned about the effect this will have. what have you found in your model? >> democrats have got to stop running scared. in fact, according to my model, impeachment undermines the re-election chances because one of my critical keys that can turn against the incumbent party is the scandal key. and if and when, and i think it's just a matter of when, the house makes donald trump only the third american president to be impeached by the full house, that will turn the scandal key against the president and diminish his chances for

election. remember, after the clinton impeachment, yeah, the republicans lost a few seats in the house. actually prior to the final vote. but they kept control of the house. what did they gain because of the cloud of scandal? the presidency in 2000. r in an election the democrats should easily have won in a time of peace, prosperity, domestic and foreign tranquility. so stop worrying, democrats. do the right thing constitutionally and morally and remarkably it's also the right thing politically. >> we will leave it there. thank you very much. appreciate your time on this sunday. up next, beto bouws out. a look at the message it sends to the other contenders in this race. to the other contenders in this race only pay for what you need. nice. but, uh... what's up with your... partner? not again. limu that's your reflection.

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[sfx: mnemonic] this is "up." beto o'rourke's decision to drop out of the presidential race this weekend came after he realized there was no viable way for him to secure the democratic nomination. today's new poll from nbc news and "the wall street journal" shows an overwhelming number of democratic voters are satisfied with the presidential field as it stands. but there's still a contrast in

what these voters are looking for with more than half saying they'd prefer a candidate who will take a new and different approach versus others looking to build on president obama's tenure meaningful to the likes of joe biden who doesn't miss a moment to remind voters of his role in shaping that legacy. let me start with beto o'rourke saying he's not going to continue on in this race. just a few weeks bag you and i were in austin. you sat down with him and he, like every other one of these candidates, says i'm in it until the end. what changed for him and how was that a cautionary tale for the other 13-plus in this race? >> he ran out of money. o'rourke built a real presidential campaign after launching with nothing essentially. a skeleton crew. and essentially -- >> a vanity fair cover and a dream. >> the long story probably starts in the first month and a half. this was somebody that came in without a campaign manager, without any structure or specific -- >> proudly so. he didn't want that. >> he wanted to go out and listen and learn.

instead he got swallowed up by buttigieg's rise and joe biden's launch and by the time it was may or june in the summer, he was already in the back of the pack and could never really regain it. it wasn't until after the shooting in el paso that he found something profound enough to explain why he was running and what he was about. and by then it was already kind of set in stone. by the time he dropped out, he had a robust campaign operation in three of the four early states. he had a serious operation in el paso with operatives who other campaigns will now very much be trying to hire. and he couldn't fund it. there was not enough money there to keep going. and with all these new polls out today, he's no closer to qualifying for the november debate. if he hasn't made that debate stage, it would have been over then, whether he liked it or not. >> what lesson does your democratic party take away from beto o'rourke's campaign, the reboot that garrett is describe, the passion he clearly felt after events interceded? what do democrats do with his

candidacy? what's the legacy of it? >> the problem with him is that he did develop this passion and explanation late in the term so that he couldn't really monetize it. and yet we need some passion for the candidate, but everybody seems to be -- i mean, the person who beats trump by the most points is biden who doesn't inspire the same passion, but people trust him. they feel like he can do it, that he can beat the candidate, you know, beat trump and so we're going to have to just see whether it is who are we going after in the democratic party? are we going after the republicans who are disgusted with trump against the people who just didn't vote last time or are we looking for that young category of people? will they come out and vote. and if so, then we need a change agent and you get to the point of, oh, but then we'll lose too many people because it's too far left. >> joe, where are we in that

calculus, picking up on what jill is saying about what democrats are weighing. are we any closer to having clarity on that? >> probably not. you know, look, i think if you look at the trend lines pointing to someone like elizabeth warren. look at the renewed strength of bernie sanders. he's up five points in that poll we talked about. it's more toward a candidate that can build a base-plus strategy. expand the democratic base and, yes if some nervous trumpers want to come over and join the party, great. but the campaign will be built around surging democratic excitement. i think it's leaning that way right now. one other point about beto and his campaign, taking it a level deeper. garrett talked about the first two months. he didn't have a campaign manager. his campaign manager is one of the most respected -- >> it was a coup. >> jennifer o'malley dylan. i'm in the tank for her because i worked for her about a decade ago. one of the smartest, most well-connected organizers in the party, particularly in a place lika iowa and one b story of him

dropping out of the race is she's the biggest free agent in democratic politics right now. >> garrett haake, thank you for coming up. jill wine-banks and joe payne. coming up, a.m. joy" unpacking new documents from the mueller investigation and the new week of white house stonewalling ahead in the impeachment probe. plus, you don't want to miss a new moment of maxine. maxine waters will be on the show when "a.m. joy" kick offs next. doers need energy. and demand for it is expected to grow. so chevron's finding more homegrown energy, more precisely. digitizing the way we work with advanced data analytics helping us develop more productive wells. and we're exploring ways to use renewable energy in our operations. doin' more... ...with less. more data and precision... to help meet growing demand. that's going to get a lot of likes. chevron. innovating to meet the energy demands of today and tomorrow.

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that does it for me. thank you for watching. have a great weekend. "a.m. joy" starts right now. i still ask the fbi, where is the server? how come the fbi never got the server from the dnc? where is the server? i want to see the server. let's see what's on the server. so the server, they say, is held by a company whose primary ownership individual is from ukraine. >> good morning and welcome to "a.m. joy." i'm jonathan capehart in for joy reid who has been under the weather. we now know more about where donald trump got his conspiracy theory that ukraine, rather than russia, hacked the dnc in 2016 and did it to somehow help hillary clinton. it turns out that campaign chairman and current federal prisoner paul manafort began pushing that conspiracy theory as far back as july 2016, the

month wikileaks began releasing the hacked dnc emails. we know that thanks to 274 pages of new documents prepared by robert mueller's team and obtained by buzzfeed news and cnn on saturday. which includes notes of interviews with manafort's right-hand man, former trump campaign adviser rick gates. gates recalled manafort saying the hack was likely carried out by the ukrainians, not the russians. the newly released documents also include explosive emails from other campaign officials like steve bannon who took over the running -- running the trump campaign when manafort was obstensibly fired in august 2016. take this email exchange on november 5th, 2016, three days before the election, which shows that paul manafort was still in touch with the campaign months after being fired. in it, manafort emailed jared kushner, quote, i am really