i'm jeff bennett in for nicolle. "mtp daily" with my friend katy tur in for chuck starts right now. tur in for chuck starts right now. welcome to wednesday. it is "meet the press daily." good evening. i'm katy tur in new york in for chuck todd. it has been quite the afternoon of breaking news. moments ago, nbc news confirmed what was first reported by "the new york times." that the highly-anticipated inspector general's report on the fbi's handling of the russia investigation is expected to undercut the president's claims that he was spied on. a person familiar with the draft copy of the report confirms that it concludes that the fbi did not spy on the trump campaign, which would significantly undermine all the right-wing conspiracy theories that the president and his allies have been pushing. also, this afternoon, both "the

new york times" and "the washington post" are citing documents and people familiar with the matter. and now, reporting that the president's lawyer, rudy giuliani, was in talks earlier this year to be paid upwards of $200,000 by ukraine's then prosecutor general. as giuliani was seeking dirt from ukraine on president trump's political rivals. as "the washington post" notes, for giuliani, the agreements would have been a way to accrue financial benefit from a person who was also providing him politically-damaging information that could help another client. the president of the united states. this new reporting comes as the president is brazenly trying to distance himself from giuliani. >> i don't really care what he says. but what was rudy giuliani doing in ukraine on your behalf? >> well, you have to ask that to rudy. but rudy, i don't even know. i know he was going to go to ukraine and i think he cancelled

the trip. but, you know, rudy has other clients other than me. i'm one person. >> the president's claims you just heard are, frankly, ludicrous. he suggests he did not know what was happening with giuliani in ukraine. even though he told ukrainian president zelensky in that infamous july call that rudy very much knows what's happening. if you could speak with him, that would be great. i will have mr. giuliani give you a call. i will tell rudy and attorney general barr to call. the president's claim that he didn't know what giuliani was doing in ukraine is contradicted by the sworn testimony of his own envoys to ukraine. >> as a presidential appointee, i followed the directions of the president. we worked with mr. giuliani because the president directed us to do so. mr. giuliani was expressing the desires of the president of the united states. and we knew these investigations

were important to the president. >> and the president's suggestion that giuliani may have been working for other clients is contradicted by giuliani himself, who said this in a new york times report earlier this year about ukraine. my only client -- only client -- is the president of the united states. he's the one i have an obligation to report to. let's kick things off with nbc news justice correspondent pete williams. pete, this ig report has found that, i guess, the fbi did not spy on the trump campaign. what -- what can you tell us? >> basically, that. that people have seen the draft report say it discounts this claim that the fbi was spying on the campaign. the fbi has long said -- the only thing they were interested in is whether the russians were trying to influence the campaign. and of course, as mueller's investigators were looking whether anyone on the campaign facilitated that with which robert mueller's investigators concluded that they did not.

you may remember that this all started with a spectacular tweet by the president on one saturday. when he said that his phone had been tapped. that obama had authorized a tap of his phone in trump tower. none of that has ever come true. and according to people familiar with this report that we've talked to, it's generally supportive of what the fbi did. it says there was no political motivation at the top of the fbi or the justice department in conducting these investigations. and then this latest bit of the puzzle, which says they're concluded that the fbi didn't spy on the trump campaign. >> do we know how attorney general william barr will respond to this? >> no. we'll hear from the attorney general after the report comes out. >> as this is happening, there's also another investigation being done by john durham. how are these two investigations going to -- going to line up? or what if durham's investigation undercuts what horowitz has found?

>> i think they're looking at sort of two different things. my understanding is that, remember, the horowitz report was very narrowly-focused. the primary focus of the horowitz report is the fisa application, the foreign intelligence surveillance act application, for the -- for the warrant to eavesdrop on carter page, the former trump campaign advisor. that's the guts of the report that horowitz will be putting out. that's why he put his report out. it was after claims, especially by house republicans, that the fbi had abused the process. and i think there will be a lot in the report from, according to people we've talked to, about that. it will say some mistakes were made. although, the people we've talked to say that it will conclude that there were -- there was a legal justification for seeking the wire tap. but that there was some sloppiness and some mistakes in how the actual warrant was prepared. now, by the way, that -- that part of his report may be

somewhat controversial. because some people we've talked to say that the report will be critical that the application didn't say, well, on the one hand, there's this. but on the other hand, there's these reasons to think that the people we've talked to may not be credible. that's typically not the way warrants are prepared. but nonetheless, apparently that's one of the things the report will say. >> pete, thanks very much. we appreciate it. i'm joined now by matt, national security reporter covering the justice department at the washington post. he's one of the reporters who broke the story on rudy giuliani this afternoon. matt, always good to see you. so what are your sources telling you about what exactly was happening with giuliani? and what he was potentially negotiating with ukraine? >> well, so earlier this year, when rudy giuliani is talking to this ukrainian prosecutor, yuriy lutsenko about conducting biden-related investigations, investigations of interest to president trump. rudy was kind of trying to

negotiate his own business deal with this prosecutor. the various drafts of a proposed deal would have this prosecutor pay rudy giuliani several $100,000 to help this prosecutor with kind of an asset recovery mission he wanted to conduct. he believed that ukrainian assets had been stolen. and he wanted rudy giuliani's help with the u.s. justice department. getting the u.s. justice department to help him out. so they negotiated back and forth. while talking about the biden investigations. ultimately, they never actually execute a contract and rudy isn't paid. but this kind of deepens questions for him, you know. would he have been working for a foreign government at the same time he's working for the president of the united states? that would be a weird conflict. definitely, unethical for a government employee and it raises some questions about rudy kind of doing this shadow diplomacy and what the ethics of that are. >> who would -- who is trying to influence who in this scenario?

is it the ukrainian government trying to influence giuliani and the american government? is or is it giuliani and the president trying to influence the ukrainian government? >> i think there's a medley of interests at play here. so the ukrainian government has its own interests. and they want to influence the u.s. government. the u.s. government and president trump has his own interest. he wants the ukrainians to investigate his political opponent, joe biden. and then you've got rudy giuliani in the middle who seems to be playing both sides. and trying to negotiate a financial benefit for himself. importantly, as he has said to some other media outlets today, he never actually got money here. he ended up referring this prosecutor to a couple other lawyers. but it's -- it's a sort of a, you know, a confluence of all kinds of interest. some of them competing, some of them in line. >> just remind us because there's so many names that we're learn squg we're having to keep track of in the last few weeks of impeachment hearings and as developments of this story come

out. yuriy lutsenko, he's the prosecutor. he's no longer the prosecutor. just unpack who he is and why he might've wanted rudy giuliani's help. >> so yuriy lutsenko is the former top prosecutor in ukraine and people have probably heard his name because ambassador yovanovitch testified at some length about him. she believed and americans believed that he was kind of a corrupt guy. and he wanted her, that's ambassador yovanovitch, out of her job because she was sniffing around his corruption. so he's interested in u.s. politics because he wants to maintain his job. he wants influence over here, like any foreign government want influence over here. and then rudy is interested in him because he believes the ukrainian prosecutor can investigate the bidens. the biden family. this prosecutor had been involved in an investigation, which at this time was dormant, into a company that employed joe biden's son. so that's why rudy is interested in him.

and then he, of course, has his own reasons to be interested in the u.s. >> just quickly, if this deal had gone through and rudy giuliani did not register as a foreign agent, that's where he would have gotten into trouble? or is there some legal boundary that he already crossed that's not clear here? >> yeah. i think even it not going through, this is a piece of evidence that prosecutors in the southern district of new york are going to be interested in, in determining if rudy should have registered as a foreign agent. of course, if this deal went through, he should have. though, it's possible that he would have if it went through. but prosecutors could see this as a piece of evidence that contrary to what he said that the president his only client, he was looking out for the president interest. actually, he was looking out for the ukrainian interest and here you have this contract to suggest that. it's not like the contract needs to be signed for him to have to register. if he's doing the thing, if he's lobbying on behalf of ukrainian interest, that would be a problem. >> matt, thank you very much. that is the perfect segue to bring in msnbc legal analyst and former federal prosecutor glenn

kershner. so, glenn, what are the legal risks for rudy giuliani here? >> yeah. katy, you know, it's -- it's pretty alarming what "the new york times" was reporting because, you know, on the one hand, you have rudy giuliani who is serving as the president's lawyer. and then we learn that he's also trying to potentially negotiate business deals to enrich himself with who? with somebody that is, one, reportedly a corrupt ukrainian prosecutor. and, two, somebody that rudy giuliani would be interacting with and interviewing under the -- the theory that he has potential evidence that could assist his client, the president of the united states. i mean, this is really double dealing at its worst. and then when you add into the mix that rudy giuliani apparently was also working as part of this sort of personal,

political errand. this back channel fake diplomat that dr. fiona hill testified was his role. it looks like he's going into triple dealing territory. and, you know, it's -- it's such a tangled web at this point. but what i can tell you is that it looks like rudy giuliani, at a minimum, is violating legal ethical rules in the way he is dealing on behalf of his client. of course, he also famously said recently that if trump tries to throw him under the bus, he has an insurance policy. it's not often that you hear lawyers give their clients ultimatums on national television. >> you don't hear many lawyers say any of the things that rudy giuliani says. but when you're talking about throwing under the bus, the president distanced himself at the very least, the most -- has started to throw giuliani under the bus by saying that, you know, he wasn't really working for him when he was in ukraine. why is the president distancing

himself? is it because politically speaking, rudy giuliani's becoming more toxic suddenly now? or is there a legal element here? >> yeah, the legal element may be that the president is realizing that all of his bluff and bluster and all of his attacks on the process are not working. and because he has no defense on the merits, it may very well be that at some point, katy, he's going to have to say, you know what? rudy giuliani was apparently doing wrong in ukraine. he may claim he was doing it for me but i didn't know anything about that part. so if somebody has to be held accountable, if somebody has to take the fall, it's got to be rudy giuliani. and not me. you can almost see that defense forming in some of what we heard from president trump recently. >> let me ask you another question. on the subject of former national security official charles kupperman, he's suing to find out whether he needs to appear before the house, i

guess, impeachment inquiry. or whether he neelds ds to abid the ban on doing that from the white house. he's added the sergeant at arms to his lawsuit. this comes after you tweeted that you believe democrats should -- should refer people who don't show up for testimony to the sergeant in arms to be jailed. why would you add the sergeant at arms to your lawsuit? >> because if you have a sense that things are not going your way in the litigation over the enforceability of the congressional subpoena, you might as well add to your lawsuit the person who might be looking to lock you up and hold you accountable for that. >> do you think he's really concerned about that? or is he just being safe? >> i -- i think both. i think he's being safe and i think with the opinion that was just handed down by judge brown jackson saying there is absolutely no such thing as absolute immunity. so people have to comply with

these subpoenas. and if they don't, they don't have a legal basis to refuse to comply. i mean, that sent a powerful signal. and hopefully, congress will pick up on that and will begin issuing subpoenas. and using that as a basis to enforce them with their power. and katy, in that opinion from judge jackson, she sets out just how the inherent contempt power works and how it is a lawful vehicle for congress to force people to comply with their subpoenas. >> glenn kershner. glenn, thank you very much. happy thanksgiving to you. >> you too, katy. >> ahead, much more on the president now distancing himself from rudy giuliani. could this mean changes for the democrats' strategy on impeachment? and later, does elizabeth warren have a plan for this? the latest polling shows some trouble brewing for her campaign. ♪oh there's no place like home for the holidays.♪

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welcome back. we've got a lot of news this afternoon to break down. joining me on set, politico chief economic correspondent and cnbc contributor ben white. republican strategist susan del percio. and former new york state democratic party executive director basil. everybody, welcome. so we've -- pete williams has been able to confirm what "the new york times" report $ed on t draft ig report that is going to find that the fbi did not spy on the trump campaign, as the president has alleged. this is sticking a knife in -- in one of those conspiracy theories that the president just threw out there out of nowhere very early on. and has used to tear down the credibility of the fbi and a lot of the government apparatus around that. >> but i don't think it's going to stop. i don't think it's going to stop the president one -- one bit. it's an important document to have. it's an important report to have because to the extent that democrats can use it to say, look at this president. he just throws things and see

what sticks to the wall. but -- and i think that that fits into some kind of narrative that the impeachment hearings themselves may also help to -- to promote. but at the end of the day, i don't think that this changes the president's behavior. it doesn't change people's impression of the president. >> does this balloon ever burst? this idea that everybody is out to get me. and everything that they're doing is a lie. and i am perfect. the call was perfect. my campaign was perfect. does that ever burst? >> no, it doesn't within donald trump's orbit. but what is important is that when we look forward, whether it's in five years or ten years or 50 years, that these reports did come out. so we can say that just because the president said it, we know it not to be true. it's easy to get into the every day of how much he lies and everything else and people are kind of numb to it. but it is important for the record to show that our -- our systems are doing their jobs. the fbi are filled with people of good integrity. department of justice. all of our systems are holding

up. our democracy's holding up even though it doesn't change donald trump. >> we have an economic reporter here. so i want to ask you. if the economy starts to falter, if it tanks, tanks or if it falters and donald trump doesn't have that going for him, do the rest of these allegations suddenly -- or the rest of the, i guess, the -- does the bubble burst that way? >> right. i think it's possible. and i've actually got a story coming up the next couple of days that examines this very thing. so thank you for pre-promo of that. >> you are well come. >> if the economy goes south in 2020, nafta goes away, the usmca doesn't pass, we're already looking at weak growth in 2020. right now, there are a swath of voters in those important states who hold their noses and say i don't like the giuliani stuff. i don't like the deep state stuff. i don't like the lying. but okay. the economy's looking pretty good. my wages are going up. i will hold my nose and vote for donald trump. it's not a huge number of people but it's enough to swing the

election in 2020 from trump to the democratic nominee. we don't even need to be in recession. we just need to be slowing down. wage growth slowing. companies not hiring as much. that could burst this bubble. among enough people. some people, it will never burst. he could do anything. but there are enough swing voters i think wrhere the econoy does make a difference. >> let's talk about rudy giuliani. he's going to yuriy lutsenko and trying to get him to investigate the bidens. and yuriy lutsenko's going to him saying can you help me with this trouble i have? i mean, you know him. please. >> i -- i think there's something just even a bigger picture to keep in mind when you're looking at rudy and all these stories we're hearing. he was not nominated for secretary of state because of his international business dealings. >> yeah. >> that was the reason. there's enough there. >> was that the only reason? >> it was -- it was a large part of it from my understanding. >> okay. >> it was also the only position he sought. so it's not like he didn't get something else. that's what he wanted. he didn't get it.

he didn't want anything else. >> i thought he wanted ag too. >> oh, that would be a disaster. >> to my knowledge, he was not offered anything else because he didn't want to be offered anything else. that's my understanding. not saying other things couldn't have happened. but this is starting to remind me of michael cohen a little bit because michael cohen went to jail because of tax evasion. for his other crimes that were investigated while he was doing something equally bad for donald trump. can he stay under -- i don't know how long rudy can be under a magnifying glass. >> can you interpret his tweets for me? can you interpret what he means when he says i've got an insurance policy? >> i can't interpret anything that rudy giuliani has said about since -- >> wasn't the insurance policy about the bidens thing? >> yeah. but didn't make a lot of sense. >> but why would he need to apologize to trump about the insurance policy idea if it was about the bidens? >> it didn't make any sense. >> but here's also part of the thing. you have to remember donald

trump is like -- because he's a cult-like leader, he gets people and he isolates them from everybody else. rudy doesn't listen to his advisors anymore. he's caught into that web of trump. so he may feel he knows other things. maybe he's he just talking trump's language. maybe he's just making a whole mess of it so we talk about it for all i know. >> that's part of the problem too, right? because if you worked for any elected official, there are all these sort of extra governmental people around, right? folks that sort of operate outside of the bureaucracy and outside of the normal channels of the office. but there's never been someone whose hands have been in so much that has created such a disaster for this presidency. and for the american people to operate this sort of shadow democracy. that's what's just so scary about it because i can't imagine any elected official, republican or democrat, allowing someone this much leverage. to go interact with foreign -- foreign actors. >> that's the one we know about. maybe there's someone with not

such a high profile doing trump's work too. we don't know. >> we do not know. but we will continue this discussion in just a moment. talk next about democrat steps on impeachment. stay with us for that. steps on impeachment stay with us for that. (people talking) for every dollar you spend at a small business, an average of 67 cents stays local. shop small and watch it add up. small business saturday by american express is november 30th. it looks like this. for heart failure look like? ♪ the beat goes on ♪ entresto is a heart failure pill that helps improve your hearts ability to pump blood to the body. don't take entresto if pregnant; it can cause harm or death to an unborn baby. ♪la-di-la-di-dah don't take entresto with an ace inhibitor or aliskiren, or if you've had angioedema with an ace or arb. the most serious side effects are angioedema, low blood pressure, kidney problems, or high blood potassium. ask your doctor about entresto. ♪the beat goes on yeah!

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out if barrelling toward the next phase is the right move. or if they should slow down and continue to dig. here now is democratic congressman steve cohen from tennessee. he serves on the house judiciary committee. so, congressman, i know you're going to have academic witnesses for the first judiciary committee hearing. are you going to have any fact witnesses? are you going to want to hear from rudy giuliani? if he does come up or say there is some quick court ruling that allows other people to testify, would that go to intel? or would it go to -- to judiciary? >> i don't think that's been determined. and i think speaker pelosi with chairman nadler and chairman schiff would make that decision. i -- i really don't think the courts are going to have anybody come in very soon. i think the trump team's going to continue to stonewall and appeal and appeal and appeal. and all of the folks we're talking about, bolton and mcgahn, have long-standing relationships with republicans.

and have been -- bolton's got a book deal and mcgahn's got a law practice that are really dependent a lot upon their history in working with the republican team. they're not going to jeopardize that. you know, so i -- i don't see any great change coming in that cart. you might have these two -- these two fellows parnas and whatever his name is -- >> fruman. >> maybe they would be available. but i imagine -- and i imagine schiff will want to interview them first. but that's a question beyond -- it's over my pay grade. >> well, let me ask you this. are you confident that you'll be able to convince the american public that this stonewalling by the white house, this delay, delay, delay tactic from the white house means that you just got to move now? or are you a little bit concerned that there could be some people out there that say, hey listen. they might be stone walling. they might be trying to run out the clock but i really do want to hear from these people before i personally make a decision on whether or not i want to see the president impeached. >> well, i think there'll be some people there. but this -- it's not going to be a great number.

i think when you see the polls say 50% of the people want him impeached. and removed from office. those people are going to support the democrats. it's a big number and they're going to support the democrats. 43%, which is basically your bush bottom line that do not. but some of those people might be people that don't want him impeached and removed from office but might not mind him being impeached. and as a blemish and as -- as -- as a record. but don't want him removed. and then you got the other 7% that are obviously out there, too. he's -- his only hope is to get all those -- keep the 43, get the 7 because the 50 are gone. and osbviously, the 7, if they'e in a question spot, they're more likely in my opinion, to lean against the president because the president's been shown to -- to have done a lot of harm. it's clear that he's abused his power. it's clear that he's tried to use his office to benefit himself politically and

personally, which is not what he's in office to do. and it's jeopardized our national security. and it's part of the constitution. and people will see at least part of that. open-minded folks and i think that 7% are probably the most open minded of the group. not having kind of made a decision. and when you're open minded, you'll see the facts as being damning to the president. and damning for our country. our country, really it's -- it's at stake. the constitution's what we're about. it's not just a piece of paper. it's not just something you read about in history. it's a living, breathing embodiment of the united states of america and what it stands for. and it's under attack. >> i've spoken to fellow members of the -- of your committee. congressman madelyn dean and congressman jamie raskin in the past couple days and they've walked us through how this first house judiciary committee hearing is going to look. they're going to explain what an impeachable offense is. what a high crime and misdemeanor is. line up what the president did with what nixon did. line it up with what clinton did and try to show the american public how egregious what the

president -- egregious the president's actions were. i know you're calling academic witnesses. i haven't seen anybody say who exactly those witnesses are. can you tell us? >> well, i don't know. i've been told that they will be top flight and the best that you can imagine. >> constitutional lawyers? that sort of thing? >> yeah. not going to be one but there will be others. but we'll have people that you know of who are experts in the field. >> the white house or we've now learned from "the new york times" that the president knew about the whistle-blower report in late august. what does that do to the timeline? >> well, it shows that he -- he had a reason to say loudly i don't want anything. that no quid pro quo. because he knew that trouble was coming down the line and that the -- he had been caught. and -- and -- the -- the jig was up. you know, they -- they --

mulvaney saw it when he went back to try to justify their actions. after he found out about the intelligence committee report. and he tried to find a way to justify it. the president saw the same thing. they knew they'd stepped in it. and -- and it was sticking. and they started to smell it. >> congressman steve cohen, congressman, happy thanksgiving. thanks very much for joining us. >> happy thanksgiving to you, katy. and may your turkey smell better than my description. >> we're going to leave it there. thank you very much. next up, elizabeth warren takes another hit in the polls. is medicare for all the wrong prescription for her campaign? keep it right here. managing type 2 diabetes? audrey's on it. eating right and staying active? on it! audrey thinks she's doing all she can

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welcome back. if elizabeth warren prides herself on having a plan for everything, one of those plans, and you could argue the most important plan, could be hampering her campaign. warren is in third place and 14 points behind joe biden in a new cnn poll of democratic voters. and that came out a day after

quinnipiac university poll showed the massachusetts senators support cut in half from where it was just a month ago. and what's happened in that time? warren released her plan for financing medicare for all. a plan that came under scrutiny from republicans and some democrats. she downplayed the significance of the new poll yesterday. >> so it's the same answer it's always been. i don't do polls. i'm out here fighting every day on behalf of working families. i'm talking about what's broken in this country. and about how to fix it. and building a grassroots movement to get it done. >> ben white, susan del percio, and basil are here. all right, guys. the big thing that's changed is the -- is the medicare for all plan. i mean, for somebody who always has a plan, why did this plan -- can you say this plan was the reason that her poll numbers are starting to slip? >> it's hard to attribute to much of anything else. people are afraid of the idea of

losing their private health insurance. they're afraid of the idea of taxes going up on everybody. and it's not -- >> just hoping that maybe she didn't really want to do it and she was just saying it? >> well, that. or that she wouldn't come out with all of the details on how much it's going to cost to pay for it. you know, maybe she could have fudged it and been more trumping about it and just said i'm going to give you this and i don't have to tell you how. but she's not like that. she is a plan person. and she gave the plan and it is hurt her. i think this was always going to happen when elizabeth warren set out to out bernie sanders. and she's done that in the primary and it's taken a toll and it's obviously benefitted biden. it's benefitted buttigieg. and dropping from 28 to 14 in one poll. i don't remember ever seeing that. >> but there is something else. i mean, yes, the healthcare plan she put out there. $52 trillion. it's crazy for most people to process that and not think their taxes are going to go up, for example. but bernie sanders is out there with a similar plan and he basically says he doesn't even try and hide it. he says you are going to get a raise in your taxes. >> overall, you'll be spending

less. >> but i think what happened with elizabeth warren was also a timing issue. she went into that. she was surging her campaign has had a great structure going into these states. really, building up an organization. she went into that debate stage. she was a target. then she came out. had to explain where this money was coming from. and then everything happened with the biden -- the bidens. ukraine. that stalled any momentum. >> and you notice in all the debates when someone has attacked the front-runner, their numbers have spiked a little bit. it seems like pete buttigieg's number have been sustained partly because of the timing. but also, he hit elizabeth warren on that one thing that she was promoting. but that so many other candidates, particularly moderates, were uncomfortable with. >> isn't there a question of when you want to peak? >> that's true. maybe he is peaking too early now. we're still in november.

having said that, i do think there is a little cognitive dissonance with some evof our candidates because there's so many, the policies are going to be hard to decipher from candidate to candidate. how much does this cost? so i think you're going to see a lot of trufluctuation. except for biden. so you have a lot of educated, white liberals who are sort of making decisions between bernie, warren, and mayor pete. but you have biden support, older, and a lot of older, african-americans who say, no, i like this guy. i don't care what else you do. >> warren has defied the odds a number of times. one of them just earlier this year when she said she wasn't going to take any money from big donors. her finance director quit over it and everyone thought her campaign was doomed. and she came back and -- and she persisted if you want to use that term. >> and she could do that again. this is a long race. people rise and fall. >> how does she do that with the medicare for all plan? does she -- does she come back and say, okay, i see that this wasn't really working? let me revisit it?

>> i think we're seeing a little of that already when she's talked about maybe it's a phase in and there's a medicare buy in option to start with. and then ultimately try to get to medicare for all. i think she has to find an alternative path on this issue of eventually getting to medicare for all because people aren't buying the idea that she can get it into the office, immediately deliver it, and not raise gazillion billion taxes on everybody. so phase in. she'll try to make it a little more palatable to people. >> you look at the calendar also does give her an option to come back in new hampshire. i mean, that does work for her. she makes a good showing in iowa. she could do very well in new hampshire. she's probably going to have problems going to south carolina because that's where biden's going to come in strong. but she has money, too. and that's the other thing. we look at these candidates who are moving up and down. buttigieg, sanders, warren. to a lesser extent, biden. they have tons of cash. >> well, that's what i would say -- that's where i would say warren maybe could shift her strategy and focus a little more on south carolina because that's

where pete buttigieg is not getting any support, particularly among african-american voters. so maybe change strategy a little bit. talk a little more policy. >> can we trust the polls on this? and i ask this as somebody who went through 2016 and, you know, saw that donald trump was able to convince people who were not being polled reliably those low propensity voters. young people are really enthusiastic about elizabeth warren, about bernie sanders. really enthusiastic about them and they're not generally the people who are polled as likely voters because they haven't been as reliable in the past. can we trust these polls right now? >> so it's always better to trust the state poll than a national poll. >> absolutely. >> absolutely, right? so having said that, i -- i -- you could trust the polls but with the caveat there's still time. there's still a lot of time. it's an open race. >> they can only tell you today. they can't tell you what a campaign's going to do. >> to a degree, you can trust the average of polls and if she's dropping big double digit numbers across an average of

polling, that means something. >> i think it's interesting when it's tied to a certain policy. as opposed to just horse race. >> the thing about polls is these republic polls when campaign operatives. we look at where you can go get votes. we use polling differently. so that's -- and we make decisions based on -- >> microtarget. >> that's how we make our decisions. so when you see national polls, they really are just a snap shot. they don't tell you where you're going. >> if you were warren's campaign and you're microtargeting, what would you be doing? >> i don't know what their data says. i can't tell you. i haven't read a warren poll. >> would you be going out to universities and to -- >> i would be target over and over young people, young people, young people. >> doing what she's doing because it's working for her and she's building an organization. and plus, i still say this. she's the only one out there who looks like she's enjoying what she's doing. >> my one piece i would say to that is she's got to find a path with some of those older,

moderate voters. because frankly, i think that's largely why deval patrick and mike bloomberg can have space to the extent they do to get into this race. because there ever a lot of older voters, moderate voters. >> no one's showing up at deval patrick's events. >> that might be true. but if there's -- there's something out there, some number out there that gives them the ability to say they can do this. >> all right. guys, ben, susan, basil. thank you all. happy thanks giving. >> ahead, we're going to break down the findings with one of the top experts in the field. that's next. one of the top experts tinhe field that's next. mments doug? yeah. only pay for what you need with liberty mutual. only pay for what you need with liberty mutual. con liberty mutual solo pagas lo que necesitas. only pay for what you need... only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

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only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ welcome back. tonight, a new warning from the united nations to reduce carbon emissions in the next decade or ensure irreversible environmental damage. the climate change emissions gap report shows a vast difference between estimates of future carbon emissions and where they need to be in order to minimize climate devastation. quote, the summary findings are bleak. countries collectively failed to stop the growth in global greenhouse gas emissions. meaning that deeper and faster cuts are now required. right now, emissions are rising. the report calls on countries to reduce emissions by more than 7% by 2030. even if world leaders follow the paris climate agreement, the same one that the united states is exiting next year, temperatures will still rise to a dangerous degree by the end of the century.

joining me now to break down the report is dr. ben strauss. ceo and chief scientist of climate central. ben, really good to see you. how dire is this warning? >> i think it's quite dire. it's a very important warning we all need to take quite seriously. >> why are we not more alarmist about it? scientists haven't been alarmist about it until relatively recently. the idea i guess was from what i read that you don't want to freak people out. is it too late? should we have been alarmist much sooner? >> actually, there's been research on this and scientists have tended to make mistakes to err on the side of caution and less drama. so unfortunately, we haven't gotten dwig gotten quite the strength of signal we've really needed. and when you understand the consequences, i think our descendants would wonder why we didn't climb to the top of the nearest hill and shout. it's -- you know, the good side of it is it's never too late to start doing better. but we are in a really bad place. >> so can we do? what needs to happen now in

order to push off the effects of climate change? in order to change what looks like the future will be. what it looks like the future will be. >> i think the other piece of good news on climate is i think of it as the easiest hard problem. there are a lot of big problems in the world. poverty. disease. war. climate change, amongst those, is the most easily solvable. we have the technology that we need. we know what to do. the problem is we have a time limit because, basically, as we pollute the atmosphere,

look at miami beach. it's not great. and look at washington. this is the pentagon. and that's -- you'll see it in just a second. four degrees celsius at warming and not as bad with two degrees celsius of owarming. this is going to happen hundreds of years from now but the effects will lock in the century. >> all those ima images show th choices we have. >> what are the choices we need make? >> are the transition to a clean energy economy and get our carbon emissions to zero within a few decades. and then see if we can engineer our ways to removing carbon from the atmosphere affthat. it's also transportation. things like transitioning to electric vehicles, which can be supplied by clean energy.

there are ways we can change how we warm, that can be very beneficial to farmers as well as the climate. change happens slowly often. we have people are set in their ways. we have infrastructure align woued with it way we do things now. political interests aligned with how we do things now. >> aren't there financial interest in new technology and realizing oil is something we can't use forever and recognizing that electricity will be sustainable. >> and there's financial interest in making this change as well. it's just different companies and people have interests in the future verses the present scenario. >> does this have to be led by the federal government? >> i think this problem is to

big for any one entity to do on its own. it's important that everyone is pulling an orb. it's going to need serious effort from our government and governments around the world to really turn the boat as quickly as we need to if we're going to avoid ramifications. >> thanks so much for joining us and happy thanksgiving to you. and we're serving up a holiday helping of politics just in time for thanksgiving. an all new "the chuck toddcast." love that. gobble it up now wherever you get your podcasts. we'll be right back. we'll be right bac k. we made usaa insurance for members like kate. a former army medic, made of the flexibility to handle whatever monday has in store and tackle four things at once. so when her car got hit, she didn't worry. she simply filed a claim on her usaa app and said... i got this. usaa insurance is made the way kate needs it - easy.

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we want people to feel secure and that, that's hard. and getting there and all it would mean is something no amount of fencing is ever going to provide. of fencing is ever to provide welcome back. frrg isn't fall thebust? the pumpkin spice on everything. but there's one fall thing that trumps them all. the white house turkey pardon. on tuesday president trump-mercy on this poeltry pair aptly named bread and butter. the night before bread and butter were living it up in washington's willard hotel and that kiebd kind of ruffles my feathers because there's no doubt it's an excellent hotel but it's not really built for turkeys. you can't just lay down a pile of wood chips and call it a day, can you?

and that gave us here at "meet the press" an idea truly for the birds. >> you're not just any turkey, you're a discerning turkey traveller who expelkts the finer things so why would you stay in a hotel for people? introducing the capitol coop that puts poeltry clients first. stretch out in your airy king-size pen, featuring chips made from reclaimed zebra wood, ruffle your feathers at our late-night dance club. let your foul mood melt away at nabaste, our legendary yoga studio. stay at the only resort that knows how to talk turkey, the capitol coop for birds with good taste that also taste good. only open the third week of november. >> get it? because like you bais a turkey and namaste is when you do yoga?

i got it. we wish you a very happy thanks governing. did you get nabaste? >> i'm familiar with the lexicon. >> ari, you might try it. i just feel like if you wentb there and you stretched out and maybe at the end of it you- -- and you could stlit and reflect on your life, i think it would bring you inner peace, ari. >> i thought they were more into downward dog than turkey? >> you never know. you can get a turkey to do downward next to you as you do downward dog. there are possibilities. >> there are. your hour is not the only one with special turkey programming. we have some turkey in our hours a well. >> and there's a turk itty roasting tonight, which is great.