three big stories we're following for you this morning on msnbc live. a stunning admission from the iranian government about that downed ukrainian passenger plane. but there is a caveat. >> and it's go time.

a new phase in the impeachment proceedings against the president as house speaker nancy pelosi gets closer to handing over those articles of impeachment. plus, at-risk severe storms barrelling across the country. already causing major damage in oklahoma. the timeline on where it's headed next and who is in the path of winter weather. >> all right. welcome back to msnbc live. i'm corey coffin. let's get into the day's big story. new today, president trump with a fresh claim about the imminent attack from iran. >> large-scale attacks planned for other embassies and if those were planned, why can't we reveal that to the american people? wouldn't that help your case? >> i can reveal that i believe it would have been four embassies. and i think that, probably, baghdad already started. but i think it would have been four embassy. could have been military bases. could have been a lot of other things, too. but it was imminent. and then all of a sudden, he was

gone. >> he says it was eminent or imminent rather. matt bradley has the latest on this from tel aviv along with our team of reporters and analysts who are standing by to break down the other big stories on this saturday morning. but first, the big overnight breaking news. that deadly plane crash in iran. and the stunning admission that iran's military shot down the jet liner. >> all 176 people on board were killed. and iran's acknowledgment comes days after denials. nbc's cal perry joining us and, cal, bring us up to speed with the latest because these developments are coming in quick. >> yeah, corey, good morning to you. so we heard this stunning admission in the early morning hours here in the region. we have a statement from president rouahni we can put up on the screen. in which he apologizes for this shoot-down of this passenger plane. we also had a press conference that i have to say was remarkable in its transparency from the revolutionary guard commander of the aerospace division.

he talked about how they thought perhaps this was an american cruise missile that was flying towards tehran. he gave even more detail. saying that a soldier, who was sort of dealing with this, had less than ten seconds to make the decision when he launched a sam, a surface-to-air missile, at that airplane. i have to say it's indicative of where we are in 2020 with technology that the evidence was really starting to mount up on the iranians and i really think they felt they had no choice but to admit culpability. heightened tensions in the region, all which happened in which iran lashed back at the united states hitting those bases in iraq. corey. >> all right. so let's go down the -- the list here. this was not exactly an unqualified admission from iran. how are the leaders there apportioning blame here when it comes to who is going to be held responsible for all this? >> well, listen. they are framing it within the conflict taking place between the u.s. and iran. we can also show you a statement from the foreign minister zarif

who talks about the americans and how this was really what led to this shoot-down. that it was the americans and their ramping up of tensions, their assassination of general soleimani, that then started these events that led to this plane being shot down. so while the iranians are saying they were responsible for shooting down this jet, they are saying that without the americans ramping up tensions and carrying out that assassination, that this never would have happened. keep in mind, all of this coming, as well, when the revolutionary guard says their systems, their surface-to-air missile defense systems were at the highest state of alert. they were at a state of war and that in some ways, they were sort of protecting their assets. specifically, this irgc base the plane they said was sort of near. they said it sort of took a strange turn that forced this surface to air missile to kick in. corey. >> it was quite telling. while they admitted responsibility for the downing of that jet, they also laid blame right there at the hands of the united states for starting all of this.

nbc's cal perry, thank you. >> let's go to matt bradley now in tel aviv. matt, nbc reporting on the role of israel in the soleimani killing. what can you tell us about that? >> it seems as though israel did tip off the americans to when soleimani was going to be actually boarding that plane in damascus and flying out. it was israeli spies who were able to pin point his location. then american spies at baghdad international airport who were able to verify his arrival. and this is all based on nbc's reporting. this seemed to happen fairly quickly. and, you know, it looks like united states officials were watching on video screens from washington, from cia headquarters at langley and elsewhere. so that's how they were able to track this -- this target throughout different countries. and of course, the thing with iraq right now is it's dominated by u.s. air -- u.s. air forces. so there was no counterattack. there was no resistance when u.s. drones flew overhead and were able to target soleimani so effectively and so easily. and, you know, one of the things, as -- as my colleague

cal perry was just mentioning, the technology that came to bear in this attack. it just goes to show how much this is the new normal. and how effectively these -- these targets can be taken out with very little resistance and with actually very little notification in advance. this was done really chillingly easy. and then there was another parallel attack that was unsuccessful in yemen. also, targeting a senior member of the quds force from the islamic revolutionary guard corps of iran. and this one was unsuccessful. so that kind of goes to show this might have been more than just an imminent threat from qassem soleimani. this might have been more like a coordinated attempt to take out the leadership of the quds force and the irgc. corey. >> hey, matt. it's lindsey here and i wanted to ask you what's the reaction there locally to president trump's response, statement, that four embassies in the -- four u.s. embassies were targeted? >> well, there hasn't been much of a response lately. we haven't heard anything

directly responding to the idea that four u.s. embassies were targeted. i'm not sure that anybody necessarily here in israel believes that it was an imminent threat. they are just grateful that qassem soleimani is gone. they considered him to be a regular, ordinary, constant threat to both israel and to u.s. interests throughout the region. and so, for them, this was simply just an escalatory attack, and they're glad he's gone. they see him as one of the chief terrorists throughout the region. whether that's true or not, that's the view they're getting here from israel. >> cal perry in -- and cal perry, cal, just to button this all up, at the end of the day, while the iranian said their direct attack and revenge has stopped. are there still some proxies doing some things there in iraq and across the area? >> yeah. and listen, i think, you know, matt -- matt -- what matt's

saying is absolutely right. that, you know, for israelis, the iranian proxies are always a threat. so, you know, nobody would be surprised that these proxies would start to lash out. i mean, they have been waging a slow campaign against american interests around the region for decades. qassem soleimani was -- was an existence, his job, his principal was to fight enemies outside of iran so there was never a repeat of what iran saw in the '80s in a very bloody war with iraq in which a million iranians died. the americans will stay on high alert. the israelis will stay on high alert. but certainly, i think when you look at sort of the assets around the gulf, you look at the small gulf nations, there is a sense, i think, that this sort of changed things. the assassination of qassem soleimani sort of ratcheted things up to a level that we haven't seen before. and keep in mind, qassem soleimani's job, in many ways, was to coordinate with these proxies. and we'll have to see sort of

whether or not these proxies take matters into their own hands in the coming weeks and months. you know, a lot of this is the long game for the iranians. their goal is to get u.s. forces, u.s. troops, out of this region in places like qatar, where i am right now. 20 minutes away from where i stand is the largest american air base in the region. so certainly, i think that's the priority for the iranians. and they will use these proxies to carry out those missions. >> all right. so let's go to matt bradley real quick in tel aviv because i have another additional question about israel's involvement in all this. and, matt, if you can hear me, my question is we heard about the additional failed operation in yemen. is there any word yet if israel also tried to aid the u.s. in that operation? >> no. that's entirely unclear. i mean, what would probably be more likely than israel would be saudi arabia because saudi and the emirates were both close u.s. allies. almost as close as israel and the united states. they're very, very active in saudi arabia.

and they've been fighting a war for several years against the houthis, which is an iranian-backed group. may be less identi-- the saudis emirates, if i were to guess, they would be most likely to tip off the u.s. about that. but again, that wasn't a successful operation. nobody was killed in that. and so it didn't work out the same way. maybe the intelligence wasn't as bulletproof as it was in the case of qassem soleimani. >> all right. our thanks to nbc's matt bradley in tel aviv and cal perry in doha, qatar. thank you, guys. let's bring in morgan, who is white house reporter for the hill. thanks for being here on this saturday morning. is anyone buying the president's account about the four embassies? and this imminent attack? >> well, i think this is going to create more questions around the administration's justification for launching this strike against soleimani.

the president has really gone further than anyone else in his administration in saying that now there are -- there were four embassies that were targeted. of course, mike pompeo, the secretary of state, told reporters earlier on friday that embassies were among american facilities targeted. he didn't give a number. those remarks also seemingly pulled back remarks he made on thursday. saying that the administration didn't know exactly when or where the attacks would occur. though, he maintained that there was no inconsistency there. remember, all of this comes after members of congress have complained about the lack of information in the briefings with administration officials. mostly democrats but a handful of republicans as well. so i think this is just going to increase the scrutiny around the administration's decision-making here. >> you mentioned that the president is the only one speaking this specifically about the four embassies that were targeted. are we expected to get any more details about which specific embassies were potentially targeted?

>> it's unclear and i think if there is more information given, you'll hear it from president trump. he seems to be the one leading the way in revealing these details. of course, the first information we got about some sort of embassy being targeted was on -- on wednesday when he spoke to reporters and said that the -- soleimani was behind an effort to blow up the embassy in baghdad. and then, of course, at his rally earlier -- or later that day -- he said that it was -- there were numerous embassies targeted. so i think we would hear it from him. and it doesn't seem like the administration is really getting out there. other people aren't saying, you know, four embassies. i'm sure we'll hear more from other officials on that. mark esper is supposed to be on several news programs on sunday. so i'm sure he'll be asked questions about that. >> all right. thanks to morgan there. thank you. appreciate it. new details emerging this morning on how impeachment may have played a role in the president's decision to launch an air strike killing the general soleimani. this is house speaker nancy

pelosi prepares to send the impeachment articles over to the senate next week. >> according to "the wall street journal," trump told associates he was under pressure to deal with soleimani from gop senators that he views as important supporters in the upcoming trial. that he is going to need them. joining us now, josh lederman, and josh, what does this mean for the president? if this is, in fact, true that he made the decision to strike soleimani not for our national interests and our national security but rather to protect his own legacy and his own office? >> well, it's sure not going to buy the president any additional good will from democrats here in the senate as they consider whether to vote to reign in the president's ability to wage war with iran. just like the house did this week. now, president trump, last night, telling fox news that this is all fake news. that this story was made up. but that at the end of the day, this is likely to be a he said/she said situation because really only a mind reader can say exactly what was in the president's head as he was ordering that strike on qassem

soleimani. >> and, josh, i'm curious about the whole impeachment because as we mentioned, as the sun rises there in d.c. on what looks like a beautiful morning, it's going to get ugly in the days ahead. speaker pelosi expects to hand over the articles of impeachment to the senate next week. what role or any or how much of a presence will pelosi actually have as the action plays out in the other chamber? >> the role that nancy pelosi will continue to have after those impeachment articles come over here to the senate will essentially be the pulpit that she is as speaker of the how is and leader of the democrats in the house. but really, it's going to be a mantel that's passed to chuck schumer, the minority leader here in the senate, to try to negotiate with republicans as they move past that first stage of the trial. after we hear these opening arguments from both sides, then it seems that we're going to have some type of a -- a vote or a debate about whether to bring in witnesses and to allow

additional testimony. and that's the point where you may see democrats, pelosi, schumer, and other democrats in both chambers saying, guys, we really want to hear some more evidence and be able to bring in more witnesses to the process. >> meanwhile, gop senator susan collins tells her local paper she is working with a fairly small group of republicans to ensure witnesses can be called in the senate trial. collins later telling nbc news it is important that both sides be treated fairly. how much impact could senator collins have in shaping this upcoming trial, especially as her latest comments break from the model senator mcconnell said he plans to follow? >> yeah, all eyes on susan coloradone collins just like they were in 2018. that gives her a lot of power in addition to some of the other snatders who we know are kind of on the fence about whether to be able to bring in witnesses. mitt romney saying, for example, that he'd like to hear from john bolton, who has said that he is willing to testify if subpoenaed. so we don't know exactly how

this will play out. we know there's a lot going on behind the scenes. not only among senate -- or collins and some of her republican colleagues but also democrats. but the flip side of this is that if republicans do allow witnesses to be called as democrats want, they're likely to want their own witnesses, as well, who are going to tell a very different story. we've heard republicans calling for hunter biden to testify. others who would actually be able to make a offensive case for the president instead of merely a defensive one. >> all right. josh lederman joining us from capitol hill. i get a sense that come one week from today, josh, there might be some other friends there at the chambers at this early hour. >> maybe a few. >> yeah, some senators perhaps. do you think it'll move that quickly? >> i think so. i think the interest in this is only going to increase as we move into the actual trial phase of this impeachment process that's been going on so many months now. >> josh lederman, thank you. >> it will be interesting to see the timing, how it plays out.

all right. developing this morning, a high seas naval standoff escalates as two superpowers point fingers at each other. new video show american and russian warships that seem to be on a collision course. nbc's courtney kube has ts details. >> in this alarming video, you can see the russian spy ship getting dangerously close to a u.s. navy destroyer in the north arabian sea. at one point, just 60 yards from the u.s. ship. the crew of the uss sounding five short warning blasts. the russian spy ship ultimately moved out of the way. the u.s. navy called the russian actions aguegressive. saying the initial delay in complying with international rules while it was making an aggressive approach increased the risk of collision. this is not the first time russia has confronted u.s. forces at sea. last june, a russian destroyer got so close to the uss chancellorville, the americans could see the russian sailors sun bathing. >> the russian defense ministry

is blaming the u.s. saying it crossed the russian ship's path. >> our thanks to courtney kube for that report. >> now, to lindsey with more of this morning's other headlines. >> here's some major headlines from overseas and the nation's capitol. texas has rejected the resettlement of new refugees. this is the first time a state has done this since president trump's executive order granting local governments this authority. governor greg abbott sent a letter to mike pompeo saying texas has resettled more refugees than any other state since 2010. the cdc is warning two flu strains are heading children and young people hard this season. five more children have died, bringing this season's total to 32 deaths. reports say 80% of the children were unvaccinated. and that is twice as many deaths as last year at this point. and more than any other year since 2004. preliminary cdc reports show that 9.7 million people have gotten the flu. 4,800 have died. and lastly, legendary rush

drummer neal peart has died after a three-year-long battle with brain cancer. he fought the same cancer as late senator john mccain and joe biden's son beau. peart is best known for his career as a member of the legendary band rush. he was 67. a lot of heartbroken fans today. >> indeed, that is such a brutal disease. ted kennedy also died of that. thank you, lindsey. well, breaking news as devastating storms sweep across the country. some stunning video. this is out of arkansas. where tornados and strong winds leveled homes. you can see the debris where a house -- at least one home -- stood. >> severe storms are pounding several states in the south, as well. flash flooding, more tornados there are a continuing threat. >> live picture of the city of memphis. wet overnight. >> and it's going to continue on with those lightning storms there. let's go to janessa web. what can people expect today? >> corey, this is a violent storm system that's pretty rare for january.

we're going to see warmer temperatures really heating up throughout the day. some portions of the south, into the northeast back in the 60s but that's really going to park up some squall line that we are currently seeing making its way across jackson to areas of the southeast. now, on the backside of this front is a lot cooler air. and you're seeing winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings up and down the southern plains into the great lakes where they could see up to 3 to 6 inches. this is a major hub. chicago. if you're leaving out of there this afternoon, expect cancellations and delays. with 32 million people going to be impacted by this winter storm. now, this is a dual-sided system and a severe weather threat is still going to be enhanced throughout the afternoon with 22 million under that severe weather risk from new orleans all the way into atlanta. as this squall line makes its way through, you would think it would start to lose force. but the wind is very strong on this storm system and we're going to still see gusts up to

45 to 60 miles per hour. throughout the day, that risk will still be enhanced but look at this. this is the backside. significant snowfall. and as this system makes its way through the cold front will really start to diminish later tonight into your sunday. so if you are in the mid-atlantic northeast, this is going to race towards us by tomorrow afternoon. and behind the front is a lot cooler air. the unfortunate situation is the flood advisories. this will be torrential rain packing a punch throughout the afternoon. 2 to 5 inches possible. so if you're hitting the roadways, possibility of that hydroplaining. i know people talking about the unusual warmth we're going to see with this storm system. but this is still very dangerous. and the potential for nocturnal tornados for at least the next few hours. >> a lot of people need to be on alert. a lot of people, though, will be taking in the sun on the east coast because of those unusually

warm temperatures. janessa, thanks. >> who's on first? a new poll has a different name leading the pack. what happened to pete buttigieg? >> and later, the iran story you haven't heard much about. one of our guests will explain why he's worried that this is actually part of a larger plan that could lead to war. s from your very first sandwich, your move-in-day feast, your bold canine caper, your dinner in the dark, your mammoth masterpiece, (whispering) your 3:47am snack, and whatever happened here. oscar mayer is found in more fridges than anyone else, because it's the taste you count on. make every sandwich count.

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caucuses, senator bernie sanders is taking the lead in iowa. this new poll shows him with 20%

of the vote among democratic caucus goers. but some candidates have already turned their focus to other early voting states, like new hampshire, south carolina, and nevada. you see them there. sprawling all over the country this weekend. let's go now to las vegas. nbc's priscilla thompson. priscilla, pete buttigieg will be there in nevada today after focusing a lot of his attention at -- in iowa at the end of last year. get a sense that these latest numbers will hurt his campaign? >> honestly, pete buttigieg and all of the top four candidates are within striking distance of each other in that latest iowa poll. and i think one thing, for him, is that he's got the folks on the ground there. he's going to be heading back to iowa tomorrow to continue to campaign there. and so i think he still sees a chance to recapture some of that momentum going into caucus night. and the other thing i want to point out about that recent iowa poll is that 40% of voters and

likely caucus goers say they've decided. that means, you know, there are still a number of voters up for grabbing. i was recently at ft. mattis where i spoke to a woman who really likes pete buttigieg and she also really likes amy klobuchar. and she told me she was not going to make a decision until caucus night. she wanted to walk into that room and see where her neighbors were. and that is how she was going to decide who to caucus for. so i think there are a number of voters that are still figuring it out. and they're going to wait until the week of, or even the day of, those caucuses. but as you mentioned, after iowa and new hampshire, folks are going to be heading to the first in the west caucus state here in nevada. and so we've got pete buttigieg, former vice president joe biden, and also senator amy klobuchar all in town campaigning this weekend. and one thing to keep an eye on is how impeachment is going to impact the 2020 field. there's been talk about the

senators potentially being in washington, d.c. and pete buttigieg and former vice president joe biden having the field wide open. and we saw a little bit of that trickle over occur yesterday at a joe biden rally. my colleague mariana was there and joe bind walked out to hundreds of folks who were there to hear him speak. and he was immediately greeted by hecklers who unrolled a sign that said, "where's hunter?" take a look at what happened. >> by the way, he's -- he's in california. he's doing really well and i'm proud of him and thank you for askin aski asking. appreciate it. so, look, here's the deal. why don't you let those people in front of you see? that's okay. i don't care if they hold up the sign. i'm really proud of my son. he's a great man. >> as you saw there, biden remained very calm. he has sort of continued the line that he's used when he's

encountered protestors in the past and had to speak about this issue in the past. his son did nothing wrong. and he feels, you know, very proud of him. and as a reminder, joe biden leads in the polls here with 23%. and so it'll be interesting to see if he maintains that heading into the caucuses here in nevada in the next few weeks. >> yeah but it's a very narrow lead right there over bernie sanders. i also notice that mike bloomberg is getting some traction there and marianne williamson is getting 1% and she suspended her campaign just yesterday. >> i don't know how she's still polling. >> exactly. nbc's priscilla thompson, thank you. >> good start to a day in las vegas there. president trump giving a wide-ranging interview on fox news late last night but it's the topic of iran making big news this morning after the president revealed new details on what he said led the u.s. to carry out the air strikes that killed iranian general qassem soleimani. take a listen. >> i can reveal that i believe it would have been four embassies. and i think that probably

baghdad already started. but i think it would have been four embassy. could have been military bases. could have been a lot of other things, too. but it was imminent and then all of a sudden he was gone. >> he was gone, he says, says the president. joining us now, chief washington correspondent with bloomberg news. good morning to you, kevin, and according to "the washington post," trump's claim here is at odds with intelligence assessments from senior officials within trump's own administration. a senior administration official says that they were only aware of vague intelligence about this plot against the embassy in baghdad, let alone three other embassies. where is trump getting his information from? >> well, from -- from the department of defense. from the department of state. and from his intelligence officials who have briefed him. look. i mean, the president earlier this week was briefed in the situation room by those individuals. secretary of state pompeo. and i think you got to take a broader step back here because what the -- question you're asking is the same question that a handful of republicans are asking in the senate.

republican-controlled senate. people like senator rand paul, people like senator mike lee, have asked for there to be more information. i was at the white house earlier this week when president trump said that he would be open, potentially, to having individual briefings for lawmakers so that they have access to that intelligence that he had seen. but it speaks to a larger question here about how lawmakers on capitol hill have the access to information and intelligence information that they're receiving. it comes at a time when the democrats in the house of representatives, earlier this week, had passed a resolution in which they want to limit the -- the executive branch's ability to target military strikes without congressional approval. however, that's a largely symbolic measure and based upon my reporting, i don't see that advancing. >> yeah, it doesn't seem like it would be able to go too far when it comes to actual action imparted by the president. now, let's turn, kevin, to impeachment.

as we inch closer to the senate trial, president trump now signali signaling he will -- >> take a listen. >> i would love everybody to testify. i like mick to testify. i like mike pompeo to testify. i like rick perry to testify. i want everybody. but there are things that you can't do from the standpoint of executive privilege. you have to maintain that. so we'll see where it all goes. >> is the president justified here in his reasoning for exercising executive privilege? or to be frank, is that a load of huey? >> well, democratic lawyers would say it's a load and republican lawyers would say he's completely justified. look. i -- i -- i think when i'm reporting on this for this week, i'm struck by two things. one, the administration that right there you have that they want to move on from this. and -- and -- and that will activate their base. but speaker pelosi now, in handing off the two articles of impeachment, i'm struck to see whether or not she is giving up

her leverage. and that's a question really i honestly think isn't going to be answered until this whole impeachment trial is wrapped up. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell now has a choice in the sense that he has to navigate whether or not he feels that he could have a trial without there being these key witnesses. that people like senator susan collins, lisa murkowski, two republicans in his party have raised concerns about and wanting to be a fair trial. remember, centrist republicans, especially centrist republicans up for re-election, they want to have a fair trial because that's what their constituents want. and vice versa, democrats want the same thing. >> as senator collins hinted, she is working with a small group of republicans to hopefully push for those witnesses. kevin, thank you. >> of course. >> the weather is about to take a turn for the worse. in fire ravaged australia and that's going to make those historic wildfires even more dangerous. >> and trump under fire from the faithful. later this morning on a.m. joy, how some clergy are taking aim

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we're back now with more breaking news on that downed passenger jet carrying dozens of canadian students, among others. the government of iran admitting overnight that its military shot down the plane, killing all 176 people on board. saying it was unintentional. >> nbc's chief global correspondent bill neily is in the ukraine capital of kyiv this morning. and, bill, how is ukraine reacting to all of this? >> yeah, good morning, guys. good morning, everyone. with some relief is the short answer to that. this was a stunning reversal. remember, iran had said with certainty that it did not fire a missile at that plane. that it was, in fact, scientifically impossible. well, now, it says it thought the plane was a hostile plane and shot it down by mistake.

from iran's military today, a televised admission of guilt. from its president, this tweet. iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake. the mystery of the final flight of the ukrainian jet, now apparently solved. this new video, appearing to show its final seconds. this, it seems, the explosion as it hit the ground. the iranian military now say when the plane took off, it made a sharp turn close to a revolutionary guard base. it then came under fire because of human error, they say. but iran's foreign minister ultimately blames the united states. claiming u.s. adventurism led to the disaster. for days, iran had vigorously denied it hit the plane. video of the moment a missile may have hit. and intelligence gained from u.s. satellites saw global opinion shift against iran. at the crash site, a team of 45 ukrainian experts gathered evidence.

>> we're analyzing the pieces of the body of the plane. we're analyzing the bodies of the people perished in the crash. >> canada, among many nations pressuring iran. the grief there, raw. 138 of the victims were flying to toronto. among them, sahar, who photographed herself and her daughter elsa on the plane with a message to her father. taking off now. for ukrainians, iran's admission of guilt is a relief. its president saying, this morning wasn't good but it brought the truth. but for the wife of the plane's pilot, there is just pain and regret. she'd asked him not to fly but he said he had to. i had a premonition he shouldn't fly, she said. one of so many grieving who, this morning, have at least some answers. >> well, here in kyiv, ukraine says it wants a full apology from iran. a full admission of guilt and

full compensation. and within the last couple of hours, the president of ukrainian airlines has been defending his pilots saying they follow the same flight path as other planes that morning. they did nothing wrong. certainly, nothing that would justify this shoot down. and astonishingly, one other thing, the air commander of the revolutionary guard in tehran says he told his authorities, on wednesday, that they had fired a short-range missile at this plane. and yet, thursday and friday, they were still saying absolutely with did not shoot down this plane. so some astonishing admissions this morning from iran itself. guys. >> but there are so many questions, as well, as to flying in and out of tehran during that time. i know that egypt air decided to cancel all of its flights hours before the missiles started flying out of tehran. so they had a heads up. others should have. bill neely joining us from

ukraine. thank you. >> let's get to a new report in "the washington post." it says a failed attempt to kill a second iranian commander on the day qassem soleimani was killed. the president of cloud share fund and he's got all the details here. he is author of "nuclear nightmares" securing the world before it's too late. very important book to pick up. >> yeah, it's a feel-good novel. not quite. don't recommend reading it to your kids but what is your assessment of this whole failed yemen plot we're learning about now? >> it's a whole new wrinkle to what we know about the assassination of soleimani. it's -- appears this was not an isolated incident. the very day, perhaps the very hour, the drone was striking the iranian quds leader, there were also attempts to kill another quds leader. this one in yemen. now, to tell you how unusual this is, the u.s. is there in yemen to go after al qaeda. we are not conducting operations against the houthi forces, which

are allies of the iranians. we haven't done anything like this before. and it raises the question about whether this -- this was really about an imminent attack, as the president has claimed. or whether it was part of a larger plot to assassinate, to kill a whole level of -- of quds leadership. and this links back to stories that "the new york times" was reporting two years ago where saudi officials were having secret meetings. some of them brokered by a guy named george nader, later a witness in the mueller probe. where they were suggesting the assassination of these leaders as a way for saudi arabia to get rid of some of the people they thought were opposing their plans in the region. there is a lot more to unpack here than we realized in the first week. >> it brings up more questions than answers, joe. and you kind of brought up the fact that it really does bring up -- it calls into question trump's whole talking point that there was an imminent threat. now, because this was a failed attempt in yemen, does that mean then that the imminent -- the threat was not imminent?

because we haven't seen attack. >> well, there has been no evidence whatsoever that there was actually an imminent threat. now, you have to understand why the administration is claiming there. that you cannot, under international or u.s. law, kill somebody because you don't like them. you can't kill them because you want to avenge past actions. the only justification for the lethal use of u.s. military force is to prevent a future attack. so that's why the administration is claiming this. and it's straight out of the iraq war playbook. you have to convince the american public that -- that -- that the other side is -- is a demon. that they're linked to terrorists. that they're about to attack us. that you are the defender of america and that you have special intelligence that they're not privy to that you -- that you can then present. and anyone who is opposing you is an opponent of the united states. you put all those things together just like they did in the run-up to the iraq war, and you can start to build public

support for actions. and maybe even a war that the american public would otherwise never support. >> and, joe, really quickly back to the yemen attack because i would think that the worse thing you want to do is to shoot and miss. so now, this particular person and his entire force there know that the u.s. targeted him. >> now, has a heads up. >> yes. how much more endangered does that put for our assets and our folks who are on the ground in that area? >> that's exactly right. as you say, you never want to wound the king. so, number one, you have jsome f the people who have the most lethal force in the region now feeling that they're targets of america. and interested in striking back. in part, just to prevent their further assassination. number two, yesterday you had the administration impose new sanctions on iran. so not use this moment of deescalation as a way to start diplomacy.

but to continue the economic warfare that got us into this position in the first place. i'm afraid tensions are rising. the risks are still high. we're not out of the woods yet. >> we're not out of the woods yet. a lot of people feeling that sentiment indeed. joe, thank you. >> all right. >> thank you. >> let's turn to australia now where the historic bushfires continue to ravage the country. more than 147 fires have scorched the continent. killed at least 27 people now as of the latest count. residents now worried that a change in the winds could worsen conditions. >> nbc's janice is on kangaroo island where the fires have destroyed more than one-third of the land. >> cooler temperatures will hopefully help firefighters get ahead of these blazes. they're laying containment lines and trying to stop the fires from spreading. yesterday, there were those high temperatures and strong winds that combined to make these

furnace-like conditions. in one area that we had passed through, two large fires actually merged, creating this mega fire. that's now 1.5 million acres in size. across the fire zone, many people who have been forced to evacuate or have been preparing to defend their homes, have been through this before. they've been burnt out once. and now, they're being threatened again. here on the island, there are still several fires that are burning out of control. a couple of towns have been evacuated. the army is here helping evacuees and also with getting supplies. especially, to farmers who need hay considering they've lost fields, they've lost livestock. they've lost their homes. the nature and the scale of these fires in australia are unprecedented. scientists say it's because of the lack of moisture in the landscape after years of drought that's creating these extreme conditions.

the impact is being felt as far away as chile and new zealand where this ash and soot from the fire is showing up on glaciers there. air quality across australia has been appalling. i've lived in india and lived in china, so that is saying something. the problem, of course, is that there is no clear end in sight. one official in victoria state today saying that these fires could still burn for weeks. candace. >> amazon is still burning. >> many people don't know that because it's fallen out of the news cycle. >> exactly. >> the battle against the bottle. there is a stunning new revelation this morning about drinking in america and why this is particularly worrisome for women. >> and in the royal household, who is to blame for the rift? a new poll from london and england points fingers at harry

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>> a new study now out shows a shocking rise in deaths related to drinking alcohol. >> analysis by the national institute on health found the amount of alcohol-related deaths more than doubled over the past two decades. with nearly 1 million people dying from alcohol-related causes between 1999 and 2017. >> want to bring in nbc news medical correspondent. doctor, good morning. walk us through some of these findings and what your major takeaways are here. >> what they found out and this is unfortunate news for a lot of people is from 1999 to 2017, there was a doubling of alcohol-related deaths. in 1999, around 30,000 people, 35,000 people died because of alcohol-related issues. in 2017, that was over 70,000. and in 2017, it actually accounted for almost 3% of all deaths across the country. so that's a huge percentage.

but when you break it down, they started to find out that people were dying from a variety of different things. one of 'em was liver-related illnesses. and that usually takes decades to build up. and so they think this reflects that people back in the '60, '70s, '80s, and '90s were drinking a lot more than they are now. but also shows certain parts of the population are drinking more and having alcohol-related issues as far as suicides, alcohol overdoses, and injuries. so those are the main categories they found. putting in perspective, again, this is a million people from '99 to 2017 from alcohol-related illnesses and issues that have died because of it. if you look at drug overdoses, it's around 700,000. so this is even higher than drug overdoses. and in 2017, drug overdoses were around 70,000. 72,000 alcohol-related deaths. >> dr. tores shows the rate of death involving alcohol increased a lot for women, in particular.

why? >> that's one of the findings they -- i think surprised a lot of experts. of all the groups, the women seemed to be the group that is accelerating the fastest. and they think there is a couple reasons for this. number one, is the drinking hasd to normalize in women as it did in men. more women are drinking. alcohol takes a bigger toll in a woman's body. if they go drink for drink with men, they will have more problems. cardiovascular problems. teenagers. teen drinking is down except for teen girls. 10th grade girls now are just as likely to drink as 10th grade boys. >> sobering facts. royal unraveling. a new poll shows what britain really thinks about harry and

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meghan markle and the royal family as they try to take a step back. >> a poll shows that people are split. 50% say the couple was right to leave. 36% say they weren't. >> joining us now, the royal wedding commentator for the bbc. this also shows in the poll that one thing the british do agree on is that they shouldn't keep the royal's perks. is there any indication that they won't keep them? >> no. there is no way harry is going to be forced to give up his title. absolutely not. he's blood. that's not going to happen. i think that they are negotiating right now. what is coming out is that meghan and harry will not take anything from the crown but there is the dutch of corn wal, which is prince charles' fund

that helps to support him. this is the future king of england and diane's son. there is a lot of protection and they will need that protection. >> there has been a lot of conversation about the way meghan has supposedly be treated. some say it has been racist and that might have played a role in the decision. here is a look. >> i think prince harry himself has said he thinks there is a large degree of racism in terms of how she's been treated. it is appalling. pointing to what happened in south africa and sometimes what has been said is so far from the truth but because it has come from those royal corporate ants.

>> i have a lot of black friends in the uk and they are split. they say there is a lot of racism over there and others say she knew what she was getting into. >> i am an american and i've lived over here over 20 years. i think meghan was a well-known actress. as an american, we are born knowing we can do anything we want to be and do anything we want to do. that's different here in the royal family. there are different protocols. >> you are married to the earl of sandwich, no joke. >> luckily for me, i married into the aristocracy. it is more lenient for me. i can have an opinion and i work full time.

for meghan, she's married into this royal family. it is what the queen mother's unofficial motto was. never complain, never explain. they are out there complaining and explaining. i've been here, i covered the royal wedding. it was a really short honeymoon period that everybody in the world loved them and all of a sudden, the british press really turned on them. >> she can do no right. >> it is constant that she's in the press all of the time. it is scathing and ruthless. my heart goes out to her. i read about it all of the time. i can't really remember what positive article about meghan since she's been married. >> she's back here in north america and harry is in the uk. thank you. iran's stunning admission about that downed ukrainian

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that will do it for us. our first one. do you want to come back tomorrow? >> we'll see. wake up at 2:00 a.m. not bad. >> we hope you'll join us tomorrow. >> welcome to you. >> thank you for the tweet, jeff. >> good to see you. >> good morning and