so, you can really promise better sleep? not promise. prove. and now, during the ultimate sleep number event, save 50% on the sleep number 360 limited edition smart bed. plus 0% interest for 24 months on all smart beds. only for a limited time. it is finally here, the caucuses kick off in iowa. the first votes of the 2020 election will be held today, and the democratic presidential candidates were racing around the hawk eye state this weekend, making their final pitches to voters. plus the impeachment trial of the president will get underway again this morning under closing arguments. the final impeachment vote is

set for wednesday. and the kansas city chiefs are the super bowl champs after quarterback patrick mahomes helped lead his team to the third comeback of the season, victory over the san francisco 49ers. everyone, it is monday, february 3rd, i'm ayman mohyeldin, alongside yasmin vossoughian. feeling like a historic week, a lot shaking up with the iowa caucuses potential the acquittal of donald trump. if you're waking up, you had as little sleep as we did after the super bowl last night. the first contest of the 2020 primary season. donald trump is expected to cruise past his two challengers, the democratic contest is far less certain, adding to the uncertainty, the "des moines register" poll, that was shelved at the last minute after pete

buttigieg may have been off the list of candidates for voters to choose from. that leaves the emerson college poll conducted last thursday through yesterday as a final indicator of where things stand in that state. it's senator bernie sanders who remains on top with 28%, joe biden second with 21. pete buttigieg and elizabeth warren in a tie for third. buttigieg with 15, warren with 14. things are still a bit fluid. 34% of democratic caucus goers say there is still a chance they can change their mind, however sanders appears to have the firmest footing. 74% of his supporters say they will definitely vote for him. 69% of buttigieg supporters say their mind are made up for that candidate, and 68% for elizabeth warren and 66% for joe biden. closing arguments get underway today in the impeachment trial of the president after senators voted not to hear from witnesses on friday. the vote came despite new revelations from the "new york times" that the president

reportedly asked john bolton to pave the way for a meeting between rudy giuliani and the president of ukraine in a 51-49 vote. republicans were able to keep new evidence and witnesses from being introduced. senators mitt romney and susan collins were the only two republicans to side with the democrats on that vote. later this morning closing arguments will begin with each side getting up to two hours to speak after that senators will be given the opportunity to make speeches on the floor until wednesday when they are scheduled to vote on the two articles of impeachment. despite friday's vote, senate republicans appear to be breaking with the president's defense that he did nothing wrong in his dealings with ukraine. >> what i believe he did, one, was that he called the president of ukraine and asked him to become involved in investigating joe biden who was -- >> you believe his wrong doing began there, not before. >> i don't know about that, but he admitted that, the president admitted that. he released transcript, he said

on television. the second thing was at least in part he delayed the military and other assistance to ukraine in order to encourage that investigation. those are the two things he did. i think he shouldn't have done it. i think it was wrong. inappropriate was the way i'd say, improper, crossing the line. and then the only question left is who decides what to do about that. >> well, who decides what to do about that. the people is my conclusion. >> i think ferreting out corruption is the right thing to do. if he was tieing it to other things, that's the president. it's probably something i wouldn't have done but focussing on corruption, absolutely. >> he didn't mention corruption in that all, as you know, he just mentioned joe and hunter biden and burisma and this conspiracy theory about ukraine ent interfering in the election. >> again, something i wouldn't have done! so it's wrong?

>> he's done it now. the president has a lot of latitude to do what he wants to do. again, not what i would have done. >> wow. so senator marco rubio of florida, he put it this way in a statement saying in part on the first article of impeachment i reject the argument that abuse of power can never constitute the grounds for removal until a crime or crime like action is alleged. however, for purposes of answering my threshold question, i assumed what is alleged is true. but then i thought i sought to answer the question of whether under these assumptions it would be in the interest of the nation to remove the president. i will not remove the president. doing so would inflict irreparable damage to you aour nation. rob portman said i believe that some of the president's actions asking a foreign country to investigate a political opponent and the delay of aid to ukraine were wrong and inappropriate.

i do not believe the president's actions live to the level of moving a duly elected president from office and taking him off the ballot in the middle of an election. >> and the reaction to calling witnesses in the impeachment trial, house speaker nancy pelosi in a statement wrote in part this, the president was impeached for abuse of power and obstruction of congress. he is impeached forever. there can be no acquittal without a trial and there is no trial without witnesses, documents, and evidence. additionally, pelosi tweeted, it is a sad day for america to see senator mcconnell humiliate the chief justice of the united states into presiding o every a vote which rejected our nation's judicial norms, precedents and institutions which uphold the constitution and rule of law. congressman adam schiff, the lead prosecutor in an interview yesterday also weigh instead. >> i still think it's -- weighed in. >> i still think it's enormously important that the president was impeached because the country is moving away from its democratic ideals and i think by standing

up to this president as we have, by making the case to the american people, by exposing his wrong doing, we are helping to slow the momentum away from our democratic values, until that progress away from democracy can be arrested, and we can return to some sense of normalcy and support for the founders ideal. but i'm not letting the senators off the hook. we're still going to go into the senate this week and make the case why this president needs to be removed. it would be up to the senators to make the final judgment and the senators will be held accountable for it. >> joining us onset, msnbc legal analyst, danny cevallos, and managing editor at the "washington examiner" magazine, jay caruso. jay, let me begin with you first of all if i can in d.c., how might president trump's potential senate acquittal expected to take place wednesday afternoon impact the relationship between republicans and democrats. when you kind of look at some of these statements we have been

playing for you. some people saying it's inappropriate. what he did was wrong, not removal, let the american people decide. >> yeah, i think that it's interesting, republicans probably would have done better had they said that right from the start. had they said, hey, what the president did here was probably not in the best interest of the country. and it was wrong. it was inappropriate, but i don't think it's worthy of removal. instead they kind of had to be silent up until the point where we're about ready to have a vote. how it's going to affect the relationship between republicans and democrats, i don't know. this is washington, d.c., you know, these people have been through a lot. they do this all the time. not impeachment but they're constantly politicking all the time. things will move on: one thing i did find odd about the statements is nancy pelosi's comments about you can't have a trial without witnesses and documents and so there was no trial, she's kind of undermining the house managers' case who they all went out and said we have made a convincing case, we put a case forward that shows he

should have been removed and i think her statements kind of undermine that a little bit. i found it a little bit odd, but after the acquittal, there will be a lot news for a few days. i think in a few weeks, it will be back to normal, especially as the campaign kicks? >> jay kind of outlined the trajectory of the republicans thought process. many of us predicted the republicans would get here as we watched everything take place in the house, that we thought the republicans would eventually get to the point they would say, he did it but it does rise to the level of impeachment as we heard from people like marco rubio, rob portman and lamar alexander. what do you make of where they have settled on this, are they in lock stop with alan dershowitz. >> we have what's called jury nullification, sometimes the jury concludes the defendant commit add crime or met the elements but for whatever reason they decide to vote not guilty. it's something that happens. it's lawful.

we lawyers are not allowed to mention it during trial, and in a sense, that is exactly what republican senators can do because their process is even more amor fis than a jury trial. they can reach that conclusion because there's no judicial review. there's no way to stop them, and that's why for each senator, there is no real burden of proof except their own individual belief that a president should be removed. and the mere fact that they may conclude that the president committed this impeachable offense, the law and constitution more specifically allows them to reach that conclusion and still vote to acquit, because at its core, even though it koz mcosmeticall appears to be a trial, it is ultimately a political process. >> and you can't help but wonder the ripple effects all of this is going to have, whether or not legislation now needs to be put in place to protect the office of the president from something like this happening in the future? if presidents now are thinking,

presidents will think, oh, i can look to foreign influence to help in my reelection. >> it is a concern, and that's exactly one way they could rem d di is -- remedy is it passing federal legislation. the reality is for the moment, impeachment is so rare, so unique, that each impeachable impeachment trial is specific to the facts. so it isn't necessarily the case that in the future similar actions wouldn't be impeachable and removal. it comes down to the political process and the fact that you have a number of senators that are not going to give the 2/3 majority. >> and joni ernst threatening if joe biden wins, they could have an impeachment with them. what can we expect to see from the caucusing process that begins later this evening? >> as people may know. caucusing is a whole lot

different than a primary. this is about people getting their friends loaded nup in a cr and going to the caucus sites and going and showing support for particular candidates and that works for bernie sanders, in his favor. he has a very passionate voting base and so that's the reason why i think in the last week you have seen him shoot up in the polls in iowa, and i caution people early on, months ago when polls were coming out. i said wait, wait, wait, you'll see serious movement a week to two weeks before the iowa caucus for people to go out to vote. now you see bernie sanders there. it wouldn't surprise me at all if he won. i think what's going to be important is how well is the second place going to do, and who will come in second, biden, or elizabeth warren and pete buttigieg and how high will they go. >> danny cevallos onset. thank you very much. jay caruso, we're going to talk to you in a little bit. don't go anywhere. all the highlights from the super bowl. the kansas city chiefs are this

year's champs after overcoming a 10-point deficit against the san francisco 49ers. president trump and mike bloomberg spent super bowl sunday attacking each other. we'll look at their back and forth taunts. and joe and mika are live at java joe's, they have a very busy morning ahead. stay tuned for that. head stay tuned for that. tthe bad news? ouyour patience might not.ay.

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recovering a fumble after sacking quarterback patrick mahomes and then halting the chiefs drive on the next play with an interception, the turnover allowed san francisco to drive 55 yards the opposite way, finishing with a 1-yard rush into the end zone for running back rahim mo, intended tyreek hill, it is bobbled and picked off once again, his second interception of the night. san francisco unable to capitalize on that turnover, punts on its next possession, tieing the cue to the kansas city comeback. the chiefs use a ten-play 83 yard drive including a 44 yard reception by hill to find the end zone on a short pass to tight end travis kelcie. that cuts the 9ers lead to three points, a three and out on san francisco's next possession and with a return to the deep ball, this 38 yard pass to receiver

sammy watkins, the chiefs cap a 65 yard drive with a 5 yard touchdown, hauled by running back damian williams for a four point lead, the 49ers are stopped again on their very next drive and the chiefs put the game out of reach with about one minute left to play as williams rumbles in at 38 yard, down the field, making it 31-20, that would be the final score of super bowl liii i believe it was, liv, i apologize. i'm returning to yasmin. >> don't look at me. let's turn on sports expert, yasmin vossoughian, and let's go to break. >> the game's mvp, obviously patrick mahomes from the kansas city chiefs, they captured their second super bowl title in franchise history and the first in 50 years. >> i got to work on my roman numerals there. >> the half-time expert, i'm happy to weigh in on who's done the half-time show for the next decade or so. >> making sure you were paying

attention. >> i was definitely paying attention, but don't ask me about roman numerals and what super bowl number it is. i have to admit, and yasmin, i missed the entire game. >> you were here even earlier than we were so. >> that's true, but. >> that's why we brought you the highlig highlight. >> now you know what happened. the chiefs making a comeback and the celebration in kansas city, it's very warm this morning overnight. we are seeing temperatures very much on the mild side with highs right now currently at 59 degrees. so going to continue to be above average for the next 36 hours. our next weather maker, moving coast-to-coast, impraktiacting four corners. it will transition into more of a severe weather event, tuesday, wednesday, thursday afternoon. now, potential for damaging wind gusts, picking up to 60 to 70 miles per hour. right now, we're watching the northern edge of louisiana to

portions of memphis as well for tuesday afternoon. so the tornado threat will be heightened for at least tuesday to wednesday as these severe storms make their way through. also going to be causing that torrential rain, up to 2 to 3 inches for nashville. now the good news, if you are not a winter fan, look at this warm air that's sitting across cincinnati, all the way to the deep south. we're 10 to 30 degrees above average. enjoy that. >> thank you, janessa. we're talking about some of the most looked at super bowl commercials. we're back in a moment. ked at s commercials. we're back in a moment yeah? who's peter? well sweetie, he's your great-great grandfather. here, does he look like me? yeah. your family's story is waiting to be shared. at ancestry.com you make time... when you can. but sometimes life gets in the way, and that stubborn fat just won't go away.

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take it, take it, take it. >> all right. good job. >> that's pretty hilarious. >> you like that one. >> yeah, that's pretty funny. i wonder how they come up with ad ideas. >> people in a room. >> maybe it was because of jason ma m momoa showed off those guns of his in his tank top, and gave his jacket to someone in the crowd. maybe they had this bright idea from that. it's going to be a pivotal day in iowa after democratic candidates made their pitch to voters. >> what some of the candidates had to say to their voters ahead of the vote. we are back in a moment. voters d of the vote. we are back in a moment. - [spokeswoman] meet the ninja foodi pressure cooker,

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welcome back, everybody. i'm yasmin vossoughian alongside ayman mohyeldin, we begin with caucus day in iowa. the voting starts at 7:00 p.m. central time tonight. the latest iowa poll from emerson college shows bernie sanders on top with 28%. joe biden places second with 21. pete buttigieg and elizabeth warren are in a statistical tie for third. buttigieg at 15. warren at 14. >> and senator bernie sanders departed iowa on saturday drawing a massive crowd of what his campaign said was more than 3,000 people to his rally which featured live music by a grammy award winning band, and introductions by several democratic politicians. the event filled the u.s. cellar center in downtown cedar rapids where concession stands were open and selling beer to the

ground. sander zeroed in on the importance of iowa and predicting a dismal fade for president trump. >> the whole world is looking at iowa. the whole world is asking whether or not the people in iowa are prepared to stand up and fight for justice. >> so tomorrow night is the beginning. it is the beginning of the end for donald trump. >> and with hours to go until the iowa caucuses begin, pete buttigieg is distancing himself from former vice president joe biden and bernie sanders. in a fundraising e-mail sent out just yesterday, the former mayor writes this, vice president biden is saying that this is no time to take a risk on someone new but history shows us that the biggest risk we could take would be to look to the same washington play book and recycle the same arguments. he goes on to write this, i hear senator sand eers calling for a

politics you have to be for a revolution or the status quo but this message is coming at the very moment when we actually have a historic majority. buttigieg took similar swipes at his democratic opponents during his last minute efforts to woo iowa voters over the weekend. >> sometimes you may get the message that we got to choose between either a revolution or the status quo. i think there's another way, and that is to harness the american majority of democrats, yes, but also independents and quite a lot of future former republicans, ready to see to it that we have a new president. >> more than 1,000 people reportedly flocked to des moines yesterday to hear joe biden's final pitch to iowa voters. the former vice president brought home his push for campaign unity, and reminded iowans of their crucial role in today's caucus sges. >> democracy starts here in the

state of iowa, and it starts with you, and you know, you set the nation on a path to determine who their choices are. to be president of the united states of america. you've whittled it down, narrowed a choice. >> i refuse to get engage insteed in a democratic primary, i'm not going to attack another democrat, particularly for thinks that aren't true. we choose hope over fear. we choose science over fiction. and we choose unity over division. and we choose truth over lies. we're the united states of america. >> and with the impeachment trial adjourned over the weekend, senators elizabeth warren and amy klobuchar were both on the ground in iowa making last-minute pitches to voters there. warren was scheduled to hold a rally in des moines on friday night but ended up missing the

event because of the impeachment proceedings. later on in the night she met with hundreds of rally goers who were willing to wait to hear her speak, and over the weekend, warren cast herself as the best candidate to beat donald trump and explain that the party must come together to do so. >> i also want to say thank you to everybody who got in this presidential race, whether they're still in it or not. you know, people got in this out of an act of service to our country. and some different ideas about how to do it but all wanting us to build a better america. and we're down to the final strokes here, but understand we will, we must come together as a party and beat donald trump. that is our job. >> and senator amy klobuchar also campaigned across iowa over the weekend. she explained to they are supporters that the impeachment trial would keep her in washington today, so she asked

them to help with her fight. >> i was gone the last ten days, something i never expected to happen. i do a lot of grass roots politicking. you're not going to see one of my ads in the super bowl tonight. maybe if the vikings were playing, you know, you would have. but instead, i have been doing this the hard way, and i have been punching way above my weight. there were certain pundits that predicted when i started the speech in the middle of the mississippi in a blizzard that i would never make it to the end of the speech. now here i am nearly a year later. >> and by the way, senator amy klobuchar will be a guest coming up later on "morning joe" so stay tuned for that. joining us now from washington, d.c., managing editor at the "washington examiner" magazine, jay caruso. great to have you back with us. what do you make of the democratic candidates last pitches in iowa ahead of today's caucuses, do you think it will move the needle one way or the

other? >> i don't know. pete buttigieg of course is making the famous outsider argument, which is famous for candidates going back decades, the washington outsider, i'm not like these standard bearer, washington, d.c., of course people may look at that and say wait a minute, the president of the united states is one of those outsiders and look how well that's turned out. i don't know if that's necessarily a great argument. for iowa it's about getting your base riled up and getting out there, and getting people to go. getting people in cars. getting them out to the caucus sites and getting them excited about the candidates, and that's why bernie sanders i think has risen to the top of the polls. the clip that you showed of joe biden, he seemed somewhat subdued. >> right. >> maybe not as much energy as the other candidates but at the same time i also think he knows in the national polls he's leading, so he's playing it safe, and he's saying i'm not going to attack other democrats. we'll see that change moving out

of iowa if something happens where it seems like he's fallen behind. there will be a turn about there real quick. i think what's going to be the biggest thing today, tonight, is who comes in second and what those numbers look like. where is the gap, does bernie win by a big margin, a little bit, and who comes in second, is it buttigieg, is it biden or is it elizabeth warren and how well the lower tier candidates, amy klobuchar, how well does she do and is it enough to keep her going into new hampshire. >> so jay, let's expand on that, because i think it's an important point that you make there, and i want you to kind of explain to viewers as to why this is so important. you have seen some of the new polls that we have been talking about throughout the show. showing bernie sanders and former vice president joe biden basically neck in neck right, and then you talked about who could feasibly come in second and why we need to keep our eyes trained on that as well. why is that so important? >> because what happens -- coming out of iowa, and particularly in the -- with the democrats, if you look over the

history of the republican iowa caucuses, people who have won there have not gone on to do anything. i think it was rick santorum won in 2012, and then ted cruz won in 2016, and ultimately neither got the nomination, but it has been that way a lot of times for democrats. whoever comes out of iowa, typically goes on to win the nomination, and going into new hampshire, who's going to have that head of steam going in there, and what happens is that a lot of times will give voters in south carolina and the super tuesday march 3rd states a second look, and maybe a second thought about maybe biden is not the best choice, you know, to beat donald trump. particularly if he's kind of like this kind of low brow kind of like, hey, we're going to go ahead and win, where bernie sanders and his crowds are electric all the time. that's going to be the interesting thing. when you go into new hampshire, what happens then, and that leads into south carolina where at that point, voters could start shifting to another

candidate, the second choice so to speak. >> really trying to gain momentum here and set the tone for the rest of the country. >> and i was going to say really quickly there was over the weekend news that john kerry may be entering the race, overheard in iowa, that put everybody in a frenzy. >> i saw that report, and that's a conversation john kerry did not want people to hear, especially the person he was endorsing, who he is on the trail. you have to be careful about the conversations you're having in iowa. lots of reporters around. >> absolutely. >> jay caruso, thank you. coming up, a special edition of "morning joe" live from java joe's in des moines, three candidates will join the conversation, former mayor pete buttigieg, senator amy klobuchar of minnesota, and also businessman andrew yang. >> the crowd at java joe's is getting ready for the show, now just 20 minutes away. we are back in a momenting with

a lo moment with those duelling super bowl ads. we'll be right back. duelling super bowl ads. we'll be right back. hi guys. this is the chevy silverado

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♪ i'm free to hug my family. i'm free to start over. this is the greatest day of my life. my heart is just bursting with gratitude. i want to thank president donald john trump. thank you. thank you. thank you. >> i'm donald trump, and i approved this message. >> george started playing football when he was 4 years old. he would wake up every saturday ready for the game. that became our life. he had aspirations about going to the nfl. on a friday morning, george was shot. george didn't survive. i just kept saying you cannot tell me that the child that i

gave birth to is no longer here. lives are being lost every day. it is a national crisis. i heard mike bloomberg speak. he's been in this fight for so long. he heard mothers crying so he started fighting. when i heard mike was stepping into the ring, i thought, now we have a dog in the fight. i know mike is not afraid of the gun lobby, they're scared of him. and they should be. mike is fighting for every child because you have a right to live. no one has a right to take your hopes and dreams. >> i'm mike bloomberg and i approve this message. >> so those were the duelling super bowl ads from president trump and 2020 candidate mike bloomberg. the president went after bloomberg and his super bowl sunday interview and of course on twitter. early sunday morning the president tweeted quote many of the ads you are watching were paid for by mini mike bloomberg. he's going there and getting the

dnc to rig the election against crazy bernie, and here's the president in his own words during his interview with sean hannity of fox news. >> michael bloomberg. >> very little. just think of little, you know, now he wants a box for the debates to stand on. okay. it's okay. there's nothing wrong. you can be short. why should he get a box to stand on. he gets a box for the debates. why should be entitled for that. should everyone else get a box. >> we'll have to negotiate boxes. >> very interesting, cory booker and all these people couldn't get the things bloomberg is getting now. i think it's unfair for the democrats, but i would love to run against bloomberg. i would love it. >> so bloomberg's campaign released a statement saying in part quote the president is lying. he is a pathological liar who lies about everything, his fake hair, his obesity, and his spray on tan. and here's the response from the candidate himself.

>> the president lies, that he things like that. i will stand on my accomplishments of what i have done to bring this country together and get things done. stand twice as tall as he does on the stage that matters and this is what happens when somebody like me rises in the polls. all of a sudden, the other candidates get scared and i think donald trump knows that i can beat him. >> so the president didn't stop there. he was also asked to give his thoughts on senator bernie sanders. >> bernie sanders. >> well, i think he's a communist, i think of communism when i think of bernie. a socialist. didn't he get married in moscow. >> might have been the honeymoon. >> well, whatever. >> a hard hitting interview there. >> yeah, exactly. bernie sanders go, mike bloomberg, go. >> a hard hitting interview.

let's switch gears and bring in msnbc meteorologist janessa webb. >> go. >> i did some digging on feel, early spring feel is forecasting -- on phil, i know we were saying opposite of what phil is saying. he has been doing it 134 years. >> what's his track record. >> second time consecutively, so maybe we'll give him 5 or 10 before we start to agree with him. we're watching our next coast-to-coast storm system expected to bring severe weather. look at the temperatures this morning, toasty for memphis, 59 degrees. florida, we're still in the mid-40s. but most of the nation, 2/3 of it, well above average, and this will spark up the severe weather threat tuesday, wednesday, thursday, this will be a

multi-series event that's going to impact the south, to the southeast, potential for isolated tornadoes and damaging winds. also torrential rain going to be an issue. tennessee and mississippi valley where 2 to 3 inches is forecasted. so you are a week ahead, warmth is going to be in place through wednesday afternoon for the east, and then we watch our next weather maker headed into the weekend. >> can we just get another shot of punxsutawney phil's house with the graphics. that's a guy who just needs one name, like beyonce, just phil. still ahead, new polling shows americans still divided on whether to remove president trump from office. plus, the warning from one republican senator to joe biden, should the former vice president actually win the presidency in november. we'll tell you about that when we're back in a moment. en we're back in a moment of 1, 2, 3 medicines with trelegy. the only fda-approved once-daily 3-in-1 copd treatment. ♪ trelegy ♪ the power of 1,2,3

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welcome back, everybody. a new poll showing that americans remain divided on whether the senate should vote to remove the president from office despite majority believed president trump abused his power and obstructed congress. according to the latest "wall street journal" poll 49% said vo not vote to convict. 46% said should. and believing president trump did abuse power to ask ukraine to investigate the bidens and

also not cooperating in the impeachment investigation. this whether there is enough evidence. 37% said it needs to hear from additional witnesses and collect more information. and gop senator joni ernst of iowa warned former vice president jb could be oe biden impeached if he wins the presidency. joe biden should be very careful what he's asking for, because we can have a situation where if it should ever be president biden that immediately people, the day after he would be elected, would be saying, well, we're going to impeach him. the biden campaign pushed back responding "have the chance to say the words donald trump and joni ernst fear most. i am here to caucus for joe biden. earlier last week senator ernst tied the impeachment for the president to bidens chances for

impeachment. >> seems a political weapon going forward according to joni ernst. >> exactly. up next, a look at axios' wrn "one big thing" and "morning joe" goes to java joe's, and amy klobuchar of minnesota and businessman andrew yang. "morning joe" live from des moines, moments away. ection la. the bad news? your patience might not. depend® fit-flex underwear offers your best comfort and protection guaranteed. because, perfect or not, life's better when you're in it. be there with depend®. dimitri's on it. eating right and getting those steps in? on it! dimitri thinks he's doing all he can to manage his type 2 diabetes and heart disease, but is his treatment doing enough to lower his heart risk? [sfx: glasses clanking.] sorry. maybe not. jardiance can reduce the risk of cardiovascular death for adults who also have known heart disease. so it could help save your life

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joining us from washington, d.c. way look at axios a.m. co-founder mr. mike allen. good to have you with us. lots to choose from. your "one big thing" today? >> axios "one big thing" is trump feels invincible. after taking several big risks and avoiding catastrophe, people inside the white house say that the president has more and more supreme self-confidence. he thinks he's beat the dealer

with the impeachment vote not having to face witnesses and having almost search acquittal coming up. he ignored advice of senators who said he should take a more moderate line, make acknowledge he did something wrong. no. took the hard line saying the call was perfect and for now it's paid off. jonathan swan talked to ten senior administration officials who described this feeling with the president and interestingly enough said that many of them shared themselves, that he's going to become less and less deterrable, because in his view the big risks that he's taken, the big stuff he's done has worked out. >> #readthetranscript. >> and stand big in iowa, i wag caucus is finally here. what are predictions ahead of the first votes on the 2020 election from your point of view? >> so looking at what's happening in iowa.

forget polls. forget what people like ourselves say, axios reporting in iowa shows that all the campaigns think that bernie sanders is the one to beat. they could be wrong, but as i talk to other campaigns, they think that he's on track to win. that definitely is the impression in iowa. we see the sanders camp projecting confidence and the other side of that coin is that the other campaigns are saying, oh, i was not that important. so you can remember the headlines about mayor pete, betting it all on iowa. forget that. now the buttigieg campaign says that iowa is optional. we quoted a biden adviser today saying iowa is the beginning, not the end. so worries in the other camps hedging their bets at a time that sanders' optics like all narratives are headed his way. >> we talked a little about this

with jay crusoe as the number two and importance of the number two. i want to hear from your perspective as for the person that comes in second place and what that means going forward looking into the primary season? >> an area we don't have that much attention span. number two's going to be big here. for one thing, being number two by definition you're going to push out other big names. will joe biden come in one or two? that's what to watch tonight. the reporters in iowa including axios' margaret and alexi say go to the bidens. older crowd, looks a little tired and talking to people around biden feel the impeachment trial has take an toll. like it physically has taken a toll on him.

so vice president biden has been very resilient over this numerically i think he's still the national leader, but that's why those two top spots, they talk about two tickets out of iowa are so important, because those two people instantly will get fund-raising attention excitement, and recognized ideological camps within the democratic party. always a pleasure. of course, reading axios a.m. in a bit. sign up at signup@axios.com tharnlg. >> that does it from us. a special edition of "morning joe" starts right now. >> democracy starts right here in the state of iowa and it starts with you. >> we are now just one day away from victory in the