you, iowa, have made me a impeachment trial has take an toll. better candidate, and you will make me a better president of like it physically has the united states. thank you! taken a toll on him. so vice president biden has been >> tomorrow night is the beginning. it is the beginning of the end very resilient over this for donald trump! [ cheers and applause ] numerically i think he's still the national leader, but that's why those two top spots, they [ cheers and applause ] talk about two tickets out of iowa are so important, because and with that it is now up to the voters of iowa to those two people instantly will determine who gets a shot in the get fund-raising attention arm in the democratic race for excitement, and recognized the presidential nomination. good morning! and welcome to "morning joe" ideological camps within the democratic party. always a pleasure. live from -- where else? java joe's in des moines on this of course, reading axios a.m. in a bit. monday february 3rd. sign up at signup@axios.com we're back. caucus night in iowa. we have a huge show ahead this morning. >> it's big. >> here at java joe's. tharnlg. we love it here. >> that does it from us. >> it's good times. a special edition of "morning you know we have so many people coming up. presidential candidates, but joe" starts right now. mika and willie, this is where, >> democracy starts right here i mean it really began back -- in the state of iowa and it starts with you. >> where "morning joe" began. >> we are now just one day away >> ba in 2008, tim russert burst

from victory in the iowa through the door asked if he caucuses! [ cheers ] >> are you guys ready to win? could be on the show and we were like, yeah. here's my mic. [ cheers ] are you ready to give it your >> i'm looking over your all? shoulder, joe. pictures of the wall including a picture of you and mika, tim russert still wearing the coat when he came in and asked to be otton show. a superior special place. >> yes. >> and my daughter still on my lap is in college now. joined by three presidential candidates, pete buttigieg [ applause ] a lot of pete folk here's. senator amy klobuchar and andrew yang will be here. [ cheers ] plus, we're going to be joined by, i can't wait, my friend dr. jill biden will be here onset as well [ applause ] so the starting gun if that isn't a big enough headline, look at the week ahead. an tonight's action in iowa, tomorrow is president trump's state of the union address to congress. kind of awkward given everything going on.

on wednesday, the senate will take a final vote on his impeachment. on thursday we'll try to catch a breath before theriy in their final debate ahead of the new hampshire primary. along with joe, willie and me, we have msnbc national affairs analyst, co-host of showtime's "the circus" john heilemann. and white house reporter for the associated press jonathan lemire is here, all dressed up. >> yeah. >> yes. i see that. that makes absolutely no sense. okay. chief of staff to -- a. good one. >> former director of communications for hillary clinton's 2016 presidential campaign. boy, does she have some stories, adrienne elrod. >> before we start talking about politics, we have to talk about that super bowl last night. >> oh. and there was that. >> specifically, the halftime show. no.

specifically, what happened amp the halftime show. willie, really, historic super bowl. people will be talking about it for quite some time. >> for the kansas city chiefs 50 years in the making. so congratulations, kansas city. to all of those fans, but patrick mahomes, incredible young quarterback pretty mediocre most of the game, with 6:13 left, down by 10 points. did not look good for the chiefs. they won 31-20. he led a comeback. played beautifully in the last six minutes. they got a score, a stop, another score and broke one open to make the lead bigger than the game really was. he's the mvp. mvp of the nfl a couple years ago. youngest player ever to do that and threw nearly 300 yards, 2 touchdowns and ran for one himself as the kansas city chiefs beat the snans an franci 49ers. >> and incredible run. this chiefs team came back from

behind what? 21-0? in the divisional playoff game. then in the championship game, they were down a couple of touchdowns, and, again, down last night. in fact, a confession. after he threw an interception with 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter, i said, okay. got to get this late. turned it off the tv. couldn't get to sleep. checked score five minutes later was like what? turned it back on and just saw m madness. absolute madness. nicest guy in the nfl, there's that guy. andy reid. >> and probably the best thing in football. last year upset in playoffs this year flew a little under radar, hype with the baltimore ravens and a few other teams. lamar jackson becoming the story of the season. mahomes last night, the single best player in the league right now. comeback in the fourth quarter, terrific. not only long-suffering chiefs fans, 50 years, but andy reid.

came close a number of times with the eagles. tough playoff losses with the chiefs and last night finally broke through. his first super bowl. 49ers terrific team, probably be back. >> two great teams. >> hard not to feel really good for the chiefs fans. >> hard not to feel really good for andy reid, for the chiefs, and as the president of the united states said, the great state of kansas. >> okay. >> now, of course, this team is not in kansas. but -- >> wow. >> -- you know. you say kansas, i say missouri. you know? you talk to putin. i start to worry. tomato, tomahto, let's call the whole thing off. >> i wonder what claire mccaskill will say about that. >> here shortly. >> and red state america. >> who doesn't know red state america? >> doesn't know the difference between kansas and missouri. >> makes fun of people who went

to alabama law school? mocks people with a southern accent behind his door? >> that guy. >> and red state america. >> it's missouri, you stone-cold idiot. >> okay. >> with that tweet -- with it tweet is missouri now a battleground state in 2020? >> yeah. no. it's caucus day in iowa, first contest -- not even close -- of the 2020 primary season. >> while president trump is expected to cruise past his two challengers, the democratic contest is far less certain adding to the uncertainty, the highly anticipated des moines register poll. iowa's marquis survey sheflved t the last minute after pete buttigieg might have been left off the candidates to choose from. the final indicator of where things stand, and it is senator bernie sanders who remains on top with 28%. joe biden places second with

21%. pete buttigieg and senator elizabeth warren are in a statistical tie for third. buttigieg, 15%, warren 14%. despite today being the day, things are still a bit fluid. 34% of democratic gucaucusgoers say there's still a chance they could change their minds. 74% of bernie sanders sporters say they will caucus for him. and 68% warren supporters and 66% of binds supporters caulk caucuses for them. >> jonat about those polls. des moines register poll didn't come out. obviously, everybody knows the results of thosepolls. or a lot of people do, which we won't say on the air. but i have to say that emerson poll a bit off. if you're looking for energy on the ground right now, you gave

me a remarkable statistic about bernie and his outreach here. >> half a million doors that they have knocked in the course of canvassing this caucus, he was in a staff office, field office yesterday, his last kind of event of the caucus, the real one, other than the super bowl event, staffers dedicated to senator sanders cause, knocked on half a million doors in the course campaigning for this caucus, that's a lot of doors. not a very big straight. if true, knocked on twice as many doors as the number of people who will turn out at the caucuses tonight. so there's a lot of -- look at all the polling in the last month, there's a couple places where there's division over certain things. the place where there's unity, where there's almost entire consensus, senator sanders is

front-runn front-runner, that energy, momentum, came within a couple votes winning it in 2016. in some sense should have been the front-runner all along and looks like he'll close the deal. the big controversy, very hard to poll this state getting closer to the caucus. all these voters have been assailed with phone calls, voter outreach and other polls and stopped picking up the phone. hard to figure out what's rag going on. the biggest thing, does the electorate that turns out, big, big full of young people or look a little more like normal caucuses it's a little older electorate and maybe a little bit smaller -- not small, small, everybody assumes a lot of people will turn out -- in a world with a big, big, big young electorate is better for bernie, buttigieg and amy klobuchar? we'll see what happens. >> willie, we're just, we have two models that we could look at. we could look at 2004 when all

of the energy that's behind bernie right now was behind howard dean. >> right. >> and john kerry, the establishment figure, one, why did he win? people wanted to beat bush. or -- we could -- we could look at other models. models that have shown candidates coming from nowhere to win. so i guess the question is, if we can't really read much from the polls, do we look at the people who have the best ground game right now? which right now bernie sanders and elizabeth warren, and we can't fall asleep on elizabeth warren and mayor pete obviously pretty wired. >> and the process is such, as everyone in this room knows, that it's hard to really see through and predict what's going to happen. i mean, you've got the frs alignment for people who don't know. you get a bunch of people in 1,700 places around the state, go into church basements, cafeterias, high school gyms and literally physically go stand in

the corner to represent their support for candidate a., b. or c. and then vote again. then we get this publicized, adrienne vote. this year is different than years' past, because we will get the number of delegates, always gotten, but also see how people voted in the first round and the second round. you could theoretically have someone come out of here didn't get the most delegates saying i'm the winner, look at number of votes. >> the raw vote. you're right. how many are coming out to caucus before the actual caucus starts. the first alignment. where does everybody go first round. somebody doesn't hit 15%, a re-alignment and those results released. we may not know final number of delegates until one or two days from now. all of you will remember this in

2016, interesting, on hillary clinton's campaign we didn't have the final, final results yet. >> still don't. >> but knew it would be close. >> fortunately for the hillary clinton campaign, they called it while the caucuses were still going on. okay. i kid a little bit. like, they called it really quickly the next morning. >> went off to new hampshire and we called it -- out of here. and ended up winning by two delegates but didn't know that night. also fascinating to see tonight, does anybody pull that same move? does bernie sanders declare very early even if he may not know. does somebody else do that? secondly, you can message this effectively on a campaign if you're amy klobuchar for example and do very well in rural areas and see that raw vote total you can apply to this, you can message that and say, maybe i didn't come out with the most delegates but did very well in parts of the state we need to do well in order to win in 2020. >> jonathan, it's interesting. when we landed here in 2008,

even before we got out of the airport, there must have been ten people coming up to me saying, i'm a republican. i'm caucusing for barack obama. >> uh-huh. >> so much excitement. you stepped outside. i mean -- there was just, just -- it was electric. got to say, for people who have been around here, and even just from what we've observed, and people that have gone around to the rallies, there's not that energy. there's not that electricity. >> that crackle, yeah, that crackle, that there has been in the past. what's that mean? >> do you feel that? >> yeah. >> do you feel that? >> there's certainly some energy for the diehards of all of these candidates supporters but also a sense of, of course, of democrats, nervousness, what

lied hase in novemblie lies ahead in november. beating president trump. and a great uncertainty which path to take within the democratic party to get them there. whether that is perhaps the more liberal candidate who does seem to have more passionate supporters like a bernie sanders or elizabeth warren, perhaps more centrist choice lie vice president biden, mayor patriot or senator klobuchar. democrats weighing options. not coalescing on any candidate yet. and come out of here with a fairly murky picture. bernie sanders by most measures is in the lead now according to the polls. see if there's a surprise tonight. will be able to claim some momentum out of this but not clear. others, as adrienne said, manage to muster a victory even if it's hard to see the path forward to new hampshire. especially vice president biden. come out way strong second place tonight or something like that, even if he can't win he's in good shape going forward. a disappointing say fourth that becomes tricky.

particularly because polls in new hampshire, behind there as well and polling o ining over t weekend, leading in south carolina. seen as his firewall throughout might be shrinks. >> willie, other than than looking at who wins, all eyes on joe biden. a second-place finish, very strong. means a lot for the biden team. a fourth-place finish puts him, talk about in a defensive crouch. there's a long time between now and south carolina. he's got, you know, a poor finish here, i mean, could lead to a poor finish in new hampshire, which is, of course, what people were fearing several months ago. >> number one issue for democratic voters, electability. that means put another way, who's going to beat donald trump jt m trump? . we may quibble about other things but we want to beat

donald trump. joe biden especially is that, i'm the guy who can win. got to go with me. i'm comfort food. i will beat donald trump. as joe says, finishes somewhere third, fourth place in the field, entirely possible given wa we've seen in the polls, he's got an uphill climb to sustain that message. especially going into new hampshire where bernie sanders is also very strong and finished strong there. all of a sudden, south carolina, nevada, with a guy doesn't look quite at electable as he says he s. think about the weight in new hampshire. bernie sanders won that state by 22 points in 2016. >> yeah. >> elizabeth warren strong there. a neighboring state senator. pete buttigieg will pick up a lot of votes from young end dents and republicans who come across. switch over in new hampshire. without a real race on the republican side, they can come over. a joe biden fourth finish to look a lot like a joe biden fourth finish in the first two states. if you're the electable

candidate, you're the winner, you're not even beating bernie sanders. who can take on donald trump? becomes hard to make the argument you can take on donald trump finishing fourth in your own party on a couple consecutive contests. i think the biden campaign, you're right, joe. who wins this state, i think adrienne right, a lot of submessaging, but in the end one story. who wins? another story about who's the person who finishes in that disappointing kind of fourth slot. when hillary clinton finished a third, a body blow to the campaign. if joe biden is in that fourth slot and pete buttigieg ahead of him along with the two leading progressives, very hard to recover from. not impossible but hard. hard, hard. >> hard for every candidate, whether mayor pete in fourth or elizabeth in fourth. not bernie in fourth or joe biden in fourth. still ahead on "morning joe," donald trump calls mike bloomberg short. bloomberg's campaign calls

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[ applause ] all right. so the president went after mike bloomberg in his super bowl sunday interview and on twitter. early yesterday morning the president tweeted "many of the ads you are watching were paid for by mini mike bloomberg. he's going nowhere. just wasting his money but he's getting the dnc to rig the election against crazy bernie, " and here's the president during his interview with sean hannity on fox news. >> michael bloomberg. >> very little. i just think of little. you know, now he wants a box for the debates to stand on.

okay. it's okay. there's nothing wrong -- you could be short. why should he get a box to stand on? okay? he wants a box for the debates. why should he be entitled to that? really? does that mean everyone else gets a box? >> i guess if they want one, have to negotiate. >> cory booker couldn't get what he wants, very unfair for democrats. but i would love to run against boomberg. i would love it. >> first of all, i don't think that cory booker asked for a box. >> no. i think he's talking about -- >> secondly, mike bloomberg doesn't ask for a box. >> i did. >> but he threw himself completely into -- how many times did he say box? 47, 48? >> yep. dreamed that one up and said i'm going to ride it out during the super bowl. >> what's wrong? >> and bloomberg release add statement saying the president is lying. he's a pathological liar ho lies

about everything. his fake hair, his obesity and his spray-on tan. >> well, that's a way to respond. >> here's the response rchsed president lies. he lies about everything. i will stand on my miy accomplishments what i've done to for this country, i stand on what i've done. this is what happens when somebody like me rises in the polls. all of a sudden the other candidates get scared and i think donald trump knows that i can beat him. >> you know, jonathan lemire. i've always marveled how the rich get so much richer by getting things for free. mike bloomberg, free rent space in donald trump's head. >> oh, my. there's a lot, too. >> he has completely gotten into donald trump's head. >> yeah. >> and just thrown him off. >> we've been writing about this. the president telling people

around him and the campaign, too. bloomberg is rising in polls. the trump folks don't really think he's a threat yet but don't know what to make of the money situation. bloomberg has resources which we've never seen before, if he chooses to pour them into the campaign and the trump team and the president himself are nervous about that, how maddening does it have to be to donald trump, everybody bragging about all the money they're going to raise, no matter how much money they raise, michael bloomberg can write a check and it's a rounding error for him. >> won't even feel it. >> yeah. >> oh, raised a billion? cute. i'm going to write a $2 billion check and not miss t. not just about the campaign resources, ego thing. bloomberg is richer than trump by a factor of 60 or so. >> i'd say 100, 200. >> perhaps so. long driven trump sort of mad. also bloomberg sort of head entree into this new york society that always rejected trump, sort of always viewed as an outer borough real estate

developer, got his dad's money and bloomberg a self-made man, wildly rich and then became a mayor. there's a limit to what crowd size can tell you in any race, but it means something in iowa. bernie sanders is drawing big crowds. pete buttigieg drawing big crowds. elizabeth warren had a big crowd and joe biden is not drawing big crowds. there are other measures. doesn't people supporters won't show up tonight, but bloomberg team thinks this is their window. the scenario we walked through earlier, biden finishes fourth, fair poorly in new hampshire, win south carolina but in wounded fashion, the bloomberg team is pushing super tuesday. comes two days after south carolina where perhaps biden had trouble raising money. bloomberg folks see that as an opportunity for the middle lane in the party. >> willie, the democratic establishment, i think the political term, you would use is freaking out. >> yeah. >> right now over the rise of

bernie sanders. >> sure. and that's exactly why michael bloomberg decided to jump into the race. now, if biden finishes second tonight, then the calculation doesn't look as good, if it is a fourth-place finish, we're going to be hearing a lot more of michael bloomberg over the coming weeks. >> the panic in the democratic establishment you're describing now, match didn't 24 hours from now as we sit here, if he's in fourth place? if joe biden is in fourth place. imagine. >> compared to 2016 with republicans freaking out at this point about donald trump. >> ted cruz won, donald trump right there's with him in iowa. look, i mean, if, again, gaming this out. but if joe biden doesn't do as well as people hope he does here, doesn't win in new hampshire, both entirely possible, perhaps likely, panic really sets in and mike bloomberg set himself up perfectly for what he wants to do. sit back. wait for the first four states. spent money in places democrats hadn't even thought about

campaigning yet and he's sitting in a pretty good position. assume a lot of dominoes fall his way. the way he laid it out for himself, the only chance he had could easily play out. >> adrienne, reading a lot about the concern about biden, phone conversation by kerry overheard. what are you hearing among the establishment circles about his candidacy at this point? are they worried? >> people are worried, mika. i think people are worried about his operation here in iowa to an extent because of what jonathan said. he's not drawing large crowds. some of his field efforts could have been improved. friends knocking on doors, and maybe didn't feel as organized as it could have been. he could still finish in the top three. >> why is that? how could that jb a front-runner, when he first jumped into the race and all the national polls, how could they not have a good ground operation? >> i don't know and i don't want

to speak for the entire state. i'm just saying some of my friends here in des moines. i don't know what the rest of the state looks like. finishes top three what his campaign hopes for. finish top three in new hampshire and then hopefully in nevada and a strong performance in south carolina. >> squeak by. >> hoping for that. >> all right. >> so it's interesting in that first, our first segment we didn't talk about mike bloomberg. we talked about the winner is going to be the headline who's in fourth the next headline. but the subplot to all of this is michael bloomberg, a guy who, again in some polls starting to get into double digits, and who is spending a ton of money attacking donald trump. and i'm hearing, one democrat after another going, skeptical of this guy but i got to admit, this is great for the party. i like what he's doing. >> i think mike has one fundamental problem which is that he has a lot of democratic

elites and establishmentians, and finish the first four, where we are, a lot of establishment arians. spent $250 million, true, rising in polls. national average now at about 8% after spending a quarter billion dollars. there's a limit to how much support you can buy. at some point the money takes you so far. >> and millions of people just saw his super bowl ad. >> they did. >> have you ever seen a senate -- serious. ever seen a senate race in florida? all it is is 30-second ads. >> that's all -- >> all it is, what mike bloomberg is doing right now. >> trust me. i understand that, but at that point you have two nominees of two parties ambassador established connections to those

party and mike's trying to come in and buy his vote. it's hard to just buy your way to 50% of the party. winning one on one matches with bernie sanders. what he will be a huge factor going forward, the question, whether mike can get to the point where the party, not just elite of the party, but enough of the, the bulk of the party warms to hill. depends on something more than ads. he has to become a strong performer. >> yes. >> people have to see him on the debate stage. >> who he is. >> look at mike bloomberg, yeah, he represents some part of the democratic party other than the billionaire class because we know it's not just bernie sanders followers who are a little skeptical about plutocrats. if bernie sanders looks like he's running away with it, for the democratic establishment that's almost as scary as losing donald trump. beating donald trump is really important. almost as important is keeping bernie sanders from being the party's nominee and that will help mike bloomberg if that's

where the we end up in the first week in march. >> willie, people running the dnc have been depressed after every poor biden performance and debate. the first three, four, five. there was real depression, because they knew what that meant for bernie. i think when they look -- if they have to look at bloomberg as, you know, their political savior, it may not be to get the 50%. it may just be to stop bernie and open the door for somebody else. >> yeah. he's a guy who has said, mayor bloomberg, he's going to be here through the campaign whether or not on the bam llot or not spending his money. you're right. there is concern about joe biden but there was after every duebae and we used the phrase, bumped in, wait and see what happens

tonight before the full panel sets in. but i think, jonathan, democratic party at some point has to come to terms that bernie sanders is not going anywhere. if you didn't learn that in 2016 maybe you'll learn it now. his voters are with him all the way, believe in him. he represent as huge part of the democratic party. elizabeth warren voters, put in that bucket as well. you can't say mike bloomberg's going to come and rid us of a problem in the party. those voters are the party. >> yeah. the establishment missed bernie sanders four years ago and sort of missed him this time around, too. sort of an after thought for a long time in this race and goes in tonight as clear front-runner in iowa and perceive same in iowa. also other democrats might say, maybe this guy can win. and start moving over to him. maybe he is a little further left than i would be, but like the guy can win, joe biden's electability argument might be fading. could be something, too. >> right. >> mike bloomberg saves the day. >> other issues, too.

saw in the clip. this is not someone way strong retail political skill. we are going to see first time him on a debate stage in a couple weeks. that will be illuminating for a lot of voters but was a republican for a long time. knows him for guns and environment. look back, he's the one who turned over the keys to new york to george w. bush at national convention. a lot there for voters to think about. >> mika, a lot there. and again not doing bloomberg's bidding, we live in the age of trump. >> sure. >> this is a guy who defended planned parenthood in the south carolina primary in a debate, and i sat there going, that's it. that's it. okay. so we finally figured out what's going to debate donald trump and he blew the doors off the comp til ition there. beginning ef cycle seems people

start talking about how we're gos to have a brokered convention. it never happens. somebody's going to find their way. bernie wins here, wins new hampshire, wins nevada, he's got the money. it just may be bernie. >> okay. i still love michael bloomberg's response to being called short. >> and quickly, willie, go with you that's super important. no doubt the democratic elite and the establishment will be freaked out by bernie sanders. they would have been freaked out by elizabeth warren, too. maybe a little less. reality, we could look up and bernie sanders and elizabeth warren could be one and two. that will tell you what willie said is true. they may about threat to the democratic establishment but are a giant chunk of this party now. the party moved to the left, and those two together comprise what? 40%, 45% maybe more than 50% progressive wing of the party, and that is, you can -- elite can freak out about it, but that may be what the democratic party in 2020 is. >> all right. >> and just looking at that, mika, most likely one, to finish

tonight, probably sanders, and warren, who knows. if that does happen, you have a democratic party in 2020 that is going to be facing the same challenges that the republican party faced in 2016. when they were moving towards elected who they believed to be an unelectable candidate. coming up. >> look what happened. caucus day near iowa. steve kornacki joins us with a look where the candidates stand before voters come to the polls. plus, the "new york times" jeremy peters join us. "morning joe" will be right back live from java joe's. [ applause ] thank you.

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have you ever wondered what the motorcade driver drives when they're not in a motorcade? [ upbeat music starts ] [ engine revving ] ♪ this one drives a volkswagen passat. ♪ i also want to say thank you to everybody who got in this presidential race. whether they're still in it or not. you know, people got in this out of an act of service to our country, and some different ideas about how to do it, but all wanting us to build a better

america. and we're down to the final strokes here, but understand we will, we must, come together as a party and beat donald trump. that is our job. yes! [ applause ] >> 42 past the hour. [ applause ] >> okay. before we get into that, it really is so great to be back at java joe's. >> feels like home t. does feel like home. we want to thank tim, who runs the place. >> oh, yeah. >> owns the place. >> whole family. >> and his whole family, at 7? one of his daughters was -- tim? >> sitting right here on my lap. >> there's tim. everybody give tim a round [ applause ] >> 13 years ago. >> she's 19 now. and, you know, we have pictures through the years of the family

and it's really, really something. elizabeth warren. really interesting. she was talking about, no matter who wins, we have to come together as a party. there was a poll that i saw yesterday that showed supporters and how many would vote for the democratic nominee, no matter who it was. a lot of runoff on the yang support. something like 49% said he would not vote for the democratic nominee. bernie's obviously a large number there, too. >> uh-huh. uh-huh. >> but for elizabeth warren, 0%. >> what is that? >> well, that's -- that's a group of people that are supporting elizabeth warren but understand that even if she doesn't win they have to come together. it's the same message she gave right there. the pretty inspiring. >> joining us now "new york times" reporter jeremy peters and at the big board in new york city. national political correspondent

for nbc news and msnbc and author of "the red and the blue" steve kornacki. steve, start with you. what are you looking at? what do we got? >> finally here. talking about the buildup to this so long. look, talking about it, state of play going into this. the average of all the polls, sanders in the average is a couple points ahead going into caucus day. joe biden, buttigieg back in third. warren right there with him as well. klobuchar at 9% in the final average. so that's where it sort of stands overall. looking inside the numbers. get to something interesting you talked about minute ago. the big divide to keep your eye on tonight. the age divide. a poll from the last couple days. iowa democrats under 50 years old. 18 to 49, sanders, runaway leader nearly 40%. joe biden look at that, back at single digits. go to other end of the age spectrum to see, a sense of the scale of this divide. 65-plus, it's biden suddenly who's nearly at 40%.

it is sanders who suddenly in single digits. key, which group will be represented more in turnout and key because of something you talked about earlier nap is the new thing they're doing in iowa this year. usually in the past here's your 2016 result. winner of iowa, very simple. been the winner of the state delegate equivalent count. hillary clinton got 700. one state delegate equivalence. sanders 697 and 16. this year, you mentioned, also releasing the raw vote. popular vote. who people are with when they first show up. why is that key or potentially key? the old numbers. look at best numbers in 2016 for bernie sanders. johnson county, jefferson county, story county, these are, black hawk county, these are college counties. 18 to 29, heavily populated in these areas. if you add in a poll where des

moines is, these six counties accounted for 41% of the turnout in the 2016 caucuses. but based on the formula that's used by the iowa democratic party to get the state delegate equivalence only account this year for 32% of the delegates. so it's a little of that electoral college popular vote dynamic we've talked about. potential exists for a candidate like sanders to run up the score in the college counties, which account for a considerable share of the popular vote, but not do as well with the state delegate equivalent. again, getting numbers first time. we don't quite know how that's going to go. it's a new wrinkle a new variable, but you talked about that possibility. if that does happen, probably because of something like this. >> okay. steve kornacki, thank you so much. >> thank you, steve. >> stay with us. may have a couple questions for ya. >> yeah. >> but adrienne, you know, you look at those numbers and

actually, that's one reason for joe biden to be feeling pretty good. a lot of people are looking how poorly he's doing with younger voters, but in my first race when i was 29 people at college campuses why don't you ever advertise on the radio stations you and i listen to? >> right? >> young voter. young people don't vote. older people do. maybe it will be different this time. >> perhaps. but it never is. >> yeah. more often than not, always hear people saying, oh, well, this year, there's going to be a sweep of young people that are going to come out like -- >> be galvanized. and the next day you have the candidate depending on young voters going, what happened? maybe it will change this year. i hope so. >> may it will change and i certainly hope so, too, but keep in mind, joe biden caucused, or run in this state three times for president. right? he has very loyal, fierce caucusgoers who have been turning out since 1988 when he first ran for the presidency.

who are still going to be here caucusing for him. he's got loyal support. which will take him very far. something you don't always see in polling data. right? that doesn't always reflect that. to steve's point, you hope if your bernie sanders knowing where the college vote, where the young voters are concentrated and hope they really turn out because you think about the raw vote population and how that is proportional to delegates, doesn't always match up. bern ip got to make sure he runs of you the score in some college towns and hope the college kids turn out and vote in the caucus. >> jeremy, looking at iowa closely not just for today but also for november. donald trump believes he's inevitable. democrats not so sure. latest polls show actually a tight race. between a lot of the major candidates. what did you find? >> well, he's not overwhelmingly popular here. i mean, iowa is, it's an unusual state in that it went twice for obama. 2008 by nine points, swung back to trump in 2016 by 9 points.

i went to the trump rally other night when he was here, 7,000 people there. best of days democrats get like 1,000 at one of their rallies. there is an enthusiasm gap because his supporters are so energized. what the trump campaign is so laser focused on is juicing that turnout in these rural areas to compensate for the loss of voters here in suburban areas like, in and around des moines. now, you look at where iowa was in 2018. i think that's kind of an important point of reference, because democrats flipped two congressional seats from republicans. took back two seats and one of the, one of the new members of congress from the eastern part of iowa is a blue collar-styled democrat. very reagan democrat, kennedy democrat. it's in a part of the state where steve was pointing to on the map, those were bernie sanders counties and those were also trump counties.

went for obama, obama then trump. very swinging. >> and also so many gore counties from 2000. >> exactly right. >> now trump, all trump counties. >> it's trump country now. the question is, do those voters, do what they did in 2018 and repudiate this president again, or do they look at democratic nominee, whoever that is, say i just can't get there. >> hmm. >> willie, at best it is -- if the past is the prelude, you saw with barack obama. >> yeah. >> one in '08. got just hammered in '10, won in '12, lost again in '14. really hard to predict what off-year elections impact the election races. >> find out tonight. steve kornacki, the new rules described so well a minute ago could yield a split result, we've discussed all morning. someone could get the delegate equivalent say i won iowa. someone say, look at raw vote

total. i won iowa. part of the reason for the rules is last time around in 2016 the sanders campaign thought they did better than was reflected by the delegate equivalent and wanted people to see that vote. what's a scenario you could see, steve, as you look inside these numbers with sort of multiple winners to borrow a term? >> yeah. interesting thing you mentioned 2016, willie. there are people out there who believe certainly in the sanders campaign that if we had these numbers in 2016, that's what you would have gotten, because, again, remember, clinton won the state delegate equivalent count by 4. closest ever. she won by 4. and again, looking at this kind of disparity, if 41% of the turnout in 2016 came from johnson county, this is iowa city, the university of iowa. came from jefferson. it came from five out of six college counties, disproportionately turnout came from places with younger voters, with college-age voters. might be an advantage for that

demographic that's specific to iowa and the caucuses you don't see anywhere else. a perfect example in 2016. johnson county, accounted for 11% of the state-wide turnout. it got 7.5% of the delegates. can't get the number in. 7.5% of delegates telling you in 2016, you had precincts around the university of iowa jam-packed. went for sanders overwhelmingly. he ran up the numbers there, but didn't get the state delegate equivalent boost that he needed to catch clinton state-wide. very possible, if we had this formula in 2016 sanders would have won the raw vote and clinton winning state delegate equivalent. the fact of that possibility in '16, agens you say, a big reasoe have it now and you could easily see it happening tonight. how close the polls are. sanders, college counties runs it up, doesn't do so well in rural part state, biden, somebody else wins state

equivalent electorate, how do you deal with that? >> all right. good question. steve kornacki. thank you very much. and jeremy peters, a bellwether for 2020 have reporting on what party leaders are saying about steve king? >> right. so my colleague interviewed chairman of the iowa party jeff cochran late last week and asked him what will you do if steve king is the nominee? because steve king is running again, the republican party cannot get rid of him. censured in washington, struck committee assignments. iowa republican party isn't going to do anything, at least at this point, they tell us if he become as nominee again. i thought it was striking, because it shows exactly what we've seen with trump. his party and its leaders live in fear of their voters, and they cannot make any type of moral judgment or principled stand even if they want to in most cases.

you're seeing this happen in washington right now with impeachment. >> going to be a primary, though? king's got a number of challengers, right? i mean, presumably republican voters in that, in the republican primary could vote for someone else. >> but they haven't. right? he keeps getting re-elected. that's point. >> and this cycle, a primary hasn't faced, in like, many cycles. >> yeah. question of, like, a big choice for the republican electorate, but not clear what the republican party would do about someone running in the party who was unpopular but faced competitive primary and won. what would be the mechanism for the party -- rnts there's no mechanism. what would stop the party leader from saying, you know what? what steve king stands for, somebody who expressed sympathy for white nationalism and white supremacy is not the republican party i want to be a part of. i don't see anything preventing him or anyone else from doing that. >> speaking of lack of moral outrage, wil, something from

franklin graham, exploitation of women. not anything donald trump has done throughout his entire life but a pepsi ad. >> hypocrisy is stunning. pepsi ad deeply offended by j. lo and shakira at halftime but not -- >> yeah. not offended by anything donald trump that done. >> cafeteria reality. take the way you like. >> jeremy peters, thank you very much. coming up, part of bernie sanders strategy for winning iowa today has been -- and we have a new reporting. and plus we'll talk to three of the president's contenders former mayor pete buttigieg joins us. also senator amy klobuchar and businessman andrew yang. this special edition of "morning joe" live from java joe's in des moines, iowa, is back in a moment. to be honest a little dust it never bothered me.

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sometimeses you may get the message we got to choose between a revolution or the status quo. i think there's another way, and that is to harness the american majority of democrats, yes, but also independents and quite a lot of future, former republicans ready to see to it that we have a new president and a better way. [ applause ] [ cheers and applause ] that was pete buttigieg, with part of his closing message here in iowa. we'll talk live with the former mayor straight ahead right here at java joe's. come on in. joining joe, willie and me, we have nbc news capitol hill correspondent and host of "kasie dc" on msnbc kasie hunt is here. chief national correspondent for

the "new york times" magazine mark leibovich and msnbc weekend anchor alycia menendez. great to have you all yoonboard? already top of the hour. so much fun. >> set it up. obviously something we've talked about four years now, happening tonight. we can no longer say the poll nos longer matter, because they're actually taking one today that does. but we have no idea how this is going to turn out. most people think it's going to be bernie, but after that, it's just a scramble. we've showed mayor pete bumping in. he was at 24%. looked like he was going to run away with it. >> a lot of pete supporters here today. >> i will say -- >> wow! >> i will say, talking about all the obama supporters i ran into in 2008. i've run into a disproportionate amount of pete supporters across des moines. >> yeah.

organized well. an amazing story. sort of have taken him for granted but former mayor of south bend, indiana with about 100,000 people now at or near top of t shortly. you said it, joe. it's okay sometimes even on cable news to say we have no idea. >> no idea. >> what it's going to happen. >> exactly i. celebrate saying that. >> anyone that speeaks with certitude what's happening tonight is making it that up. bernie sanders is doing well, probably front-runner if you could call him one. elizabeth warren, wouldn't be surprised. joe biden could win. amy klobuchar performing really well lately up in double digits now and we have this wonder follow, peculiar process where people go into gymnasiums, churches and basements and vote and we decide who's off to the races in this democratic nominating process.

>> kasie, you've been in washington coving impeachment. talk about the impact that impeachment has had on bernie, on elizabeth, on amy. any residue out in iowa, or not? >> it seems elizabeth warren may have been the one who was most hamstrung by the fact she was stuck back in washington. i mean, amy klobuchar has been kind of all over the place talking, you know, really out front about what she's doing in impeachment and in front of every camera in washington while she's been there. >> she's joining us in a few minutes. >> she will be here in a few minutes. so she seems to have tried to do what she can with a bad situation. bernie sanders, you know, has so many celebrity surrogates, frankly. aoc able to pack houses for him here in iowa. he's also somebody who's kind of momentum and excitement isn't always necessarily -- he can do it online. he doesn't necessarily rely as much, i think, on what it takes,

what is special about iowa, if that makes sense. the ability to actually come and connect with voters. you know, i'm with you, joe a willie. who knows what's going to happen? especially because of the way the re-aligning process works. talk about stand in line initially with your candidate but if the western you like doesn't have 15% you may decide to join in with somebody else. with so many spread across maybe right at that 15% threshold, that's a real wild card. >> senator bernie sanders brought the party to iowa saturday drawing a massive crowd of what his campaign said was more than 3,000 people to his rally, which featured live pumuc by a grammy award-winning band as well as introductions by several democratic politicians. the event filled the u.s. cellular center in downtown cedar rapids where concession stands were open and selling beer to the crowd. sanders rounded out the weekend

zeroing in on the importance of iowa while predicting a dismal fate for president trump. >> the whole world is looking at iowa. the whole world is asking whether or not the people in iowa are prepared to stand up and fight for justice. >> so tomorrow night is the beginning. it is the beginning of the end for donald trump! >> so, you know, wondering, mika, who the band was? grammy award-winning? who is that? >> a good one. >> he's got the young people down. got to tell you. >> talk about bernie's efforts, though, not just getting young peop people, also the hispanic vote. >> they have pot a lot of money into courting what is a relatively small group of

voters. 50,000 latino registered voters up for grabs and spent about a million dollars. ads and some criticism from four years and part an understanding this is going to come down to some very margin's numbers. >> yeah. >> that's right. >> but if they figure out how to connect in iowa, where the numbers are smaller, with latino voters, of course, nevada is on the horizon. >> oh, my. >> it's going to be critical for them, and bernie's not doing too bad in nevada with latino voters. se h se had? >> and in california. spanish ads in california. important to understand when you talk about this electorate, inasmuch as you're talking about latino voters you're talking about young voters. >> right. >> i recently visited iowa. saw one of these big events where people sort of came for this soccer game and stayed for

civics and learned how to caucus and it was room full of young people. some aren't even eligible to vote but trying to bring in their family members and have this slogan, "our fight. our future" a nod to a very young democrat graphic and that's the message that resonates. >> president trump asked about bernie sanders in his super bowl interview. quite an answer. take a look. >> bernie sanders? >> well, i think he's a communist. i mean, look, i think of communism when i think of bernie. you could say socialist, but didn't he get married in moscow? wonderful. moscow is wonderful. >> might have been the honeymoon. >> well, whatever. >> actually -- just a -- >> moscow is wonderful. >> this time of year. it's wonderful. >> that's what he said. >> i think he was right, honeymoon. >> a lot of people concerned about that. i want to talk about bernie in iowa because kasie brought up

the rally, brought up a lot of stars coming out. there was the event when bernie wasn't here where hillary clinton got booed. >> uh-huh. >> by a member of congress and some people in the crowd. and, again, the parallels with trump and 2016 with bernie's campaign now are just remarkable. george w. bush in south carolina, getting trashed by donald trump. on the debate stage. once again, oh, can't survive that. he can't survive, like, saying positive things about planned parenthood. but he did. and only donald trump on the republican side and only bernie sanders supporters on the democratic side would boo figures like that. >> one thing i've found over the years especially a place like iowa. look for disconnect. disconnect between what the media is talking about and what the real electorate will talk

about. t the other issue here is sometimes you wonder, is all the momentum you feel on the ground here, celebrity, the noise, the crowds, how many of these people actually live in iowa? there is -- i remember the howard dean campaign in 2004. >> yeah. >> a vermont candidate and had swarms of young people, incredible energy. orange vests. came from california, from new york, a lot of places that were not iowa. which is not to say you have that here, but a lot of energy you feel for the quote/unquote hot candidates like bernie sanders, maybe pete buttigieg, often you see come from adjoining stits. >> states. >> except bernie did well here four years ago. effectively tied clinton here. >> no question. >> i flew out of with sanders out of the caucuses last time around and landed in new hampshire, a sense, ultimately ended up with a narrow loss but effect like a victory for this

kind of insurgent campaign. i've always believed, i'm not sure what bernie's creeling is in terms of support in the democratic party but he has a floor and made up of a lot of people not necessarily part of the process before. i do think there are, the bernie sanders campaign rightfully gets very frustrated when you compare him to trump but there are similarities in how it feels to be with bernie sanders. there's a lot of anger, frankly, at the establishment. there's a lot of anger at elites about kind of the way the system is becoming stacked, and you know, it's -- it is entirely plausible that if bernie sanders is able to claim a victory coming out of here and that may not mean it's clear-cut and he's way far ahead of the rett st ofe field, but if he can say he wins here, a distinct path in new hampshire and on a path to not necessarily become the nominee but the player we see stretch

out for months and that's an incredible challenge for the democratic party as a whole. already trying to organize behind the scenes to the point john kerry is overheard talking about it, mike bloomberg spending millions on this proposition. a real fear and that really is something for the republican party. >> and donald trump used the interview last night to talk about boxes for mike bloomberg. talk about socialism/communism for bernie sanders, the reason why, of course, i mean, we've seen this over the past six months or so. nbc news, "wall street journal" poll, america's views of socialism and capitalism, positive towards socialism, 19%. negative 53%. capitalism 52%. 18%. so mark leibovich, it is -- it is more difficult to run against american capitalism when unemployment is below 3%, you're

in the tenth year of the obama recovery? 11th year? how many years has the obama recovery been going on? >> 12 now. >> i think 12. >> 2008. >> so the obama recovery going on 12 years and you really can, i'm not being snide. >> sure. >> if you look at the path of the economy, and every indicator, it's all a consistent line starting with obama, the obama recovery. the question is, can the obama recovery win unemployment as slow as it is, it's kind of har hey, tell you what. we're going to move to socialis. don't get mad at me. it's just the case. take away 165 million americans opportunities to choose what pediatrician they want to take their children to. >> look it hasn't slowed bernie sanders down. >> how is that for a loaded

christmas present? >> oh. want me to -- you know, to answer your question, in 19 parts, joe. i would say -- >> no. please don't. >> first of all i don't think, it doesn't hurt bernie sanders at all. look at the numbers for socialism. democratic socialism. look at voters, say between 18 and 26 in the democratic party right now, i mean, those numbers, like skyrocket. i think one struggle that bernie sanders has had, pretty much from beginning of his career. certainly since he's come to the senate, a lot of people equate, especially older voters, equate socialism with soviet-style communism and he will jump all over himself. >> explains the president's comments. >> and the numbers, too. they immediately said, okay, look, this is not necessarily a terrible look for him. try to, starting even before iowa, try to reorient how people think about him. >> and compare it to venezuela. there are more recent examples than the soviet collapse in '91.

>> that is certainly the message that republicans are going to use in florida. they know that that will resonate with venezuelans and with cubans. and yet, you know, to your point. when you look at all of these head-to-head matchups where they test any democrat against trump, they're all relatively close. >> right. >> which means just as much as socialism may not be the boogeyman that republicans wanted to be, so, too, democrats are staying in line for a more moderate member of their own party. we tend to paint -- there's a big decision here. right? decide either go for a progressive or go for a more moderate independent. the truth, when i was with these young voters in iowa and say to them, if bernie sanders isn't the nominee will you still vote for the democratic nominee jay cross the board, anecdotal,

unekwivic tunee kwiv unekwiv unekwiv -- unequivocal, yes. >> willie, you oenly have to lok again, apologies -- to donald trump. how many republicans said they would never vote for donald trump if the he won the nomination? a lot of my friends. people said, how could you have him on the show? i'll never vote for him. well, i'm never going to vote for him. the difference is, between me and them, i'm never going to vote for him. the difference, i never did. they did! they have put their, campaigned for him, put their political values in a lock box until donald trump leaves washington, d.c. all of these people said i'd never vote for bernie. oh, yeah, they will, if it's donald trump and bernie sanders. >> and many of them who were humiliated during the 2016 campaign as candidates will vote to acquit him two days from now, and go on tv and talk about why he -- ted cruz, biggest

defenders. >> what's the deal with that? talk about real shame. >> and the thing about ted cruz, though, at least donald trump didn't say his wife was unattractive and say his father assassinated jfk. >> he did, actually. >> oh, he did? >> yeah. sorry to -- new reporting, yeah. >> hold on. at least ted cruz -- dorchl >> do we have video. >> ted cruz defended his father and wife as much as he defended donald trump. right? >> no. >> oh. he didn't? not even close? never mind. >> that is so sad. >> the frame is different this year than four years ago around bernie sanders where he was this insurgent. he was this upstart. it's very possible that the establishment now is that progressive wing of the party. in other words, that's where the energy and the votes are if you put together bernie sanders and been in the republican, excuse me, the democratic party for a long time who are railing against bernie sanders and worried about him becoming the nominee may be on the wrong side

of the vote when you add it all up. >> it's entirely possible and why there's, people are quietly panicking behind the scenes. the reality is, in covering, when you covered those 2016 candidates all the people you thought would be huge, had the money, institutional support and super pacs, jeb bush's superpac crashed and burned. it's not hard to, you don't want to make the same mistake thinking same this time as last time because it's always different but there are distinct parallels how the country is separating on both sides right and the left. both parties grappling and republican party much farther along the line than the democratic party right now in having a candidate and a face completely at odds with the elite, the people running the party. that's what democrat face right now and a lot of democratic senators who have been part of the institution forever, who are onboard with joe biden or some of these other more

establishment candidates, the quote that hillary clinton delivered about joe biden nobody likes him in the senate, very harsh words. bernie sanders. excuse me. yes, bernie sanders. that there is an underlying reality to the fact that bernie sanders has been a man alone in the senate for a very long time. but the people outside of washington love him. you know, that divide i think is -- i see it coming to define this race unless something very unexpected happens here. >> all right. mark leibovich and alycia menendez, thank you both for being on this morning. and still ahead on "morning joe," presidential candidate amy klobuchar. on the hill ahead of a busy week in washington before heading back here to iowa later today. the minnesota democrat joins us next on "morning joe." - [spokeswoman] meet the ninja foodi pressure cooker, the best of pressure cooking and air frying now in one pot, and with tendercrisp technology, you can cook foods that are crispy on the outside

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[ cheers and applause ] 23 past the hour. and in the senate, almost -- some republicans appear to be breaking with the president's defense saying he did nothing wrong, nothing at all in his dealings with ukraine. >> what i believe he did, one, was that he called the president of ukraine and asked him to become involved in investigating joe biden who was -- >> you believe his wrongdoing began there? not before? not before. i don't know about that. he admitted that. the president admitted that. released a transcript he said on television. the second thing at least in part he delayed the military and other assistance to ukraine in order to encourage that investigation. those are the two things he did. he shouldn't have done it. i think it was wrong. inappropriate was the way i'd say, improper, crossing the

line, and then the only question left is, who decides what to do about that? >> well, who decides what to do than? >> the people. the people is my conclusion. >> i think ferreting out corruption is absolutely the right thing to do. now, if he was tieing it to other things, that's the president. it's probably something that i wouldn't have done, but focusing on corruption absolutely is something. >> he didn't mention corruption in the call, as you know? he just mentioned joe and hunter biden and burisma and then a conspiracy theory an ukraine interfering in the election c. >> again, something i wouldn't have done. he's done it now. the president has a lot of latitude to do what he wants to do. again, not what i would have done. >> you know, the president does have a lot of latitude when surrounded by a bunch of useful idiots who will say anything -- anything -- to defend him.

so pathetic. it's really hard to watch. is that going to be lamar alexander's legacy? really? leaving the senate? really. thanks for not saving the democracy. good on ya. >> senator marco rubio of florida put out a statement writing in part on the first article of impeachment i reject the argument abuse of power can never constitute grounds for removal unless a crime or crime-like actions alleged. for purposes of answering my threshold question i assumed what was alleged is true. >> great. >> then i sought to answer the question whether understand ef these assumptions in the interests of the nation to remove the president. i will not vote to remove the president because doing so would inflict irreparable damage to our already damaged nation. and this senator saying some of the actions in this case including asking a foreign country to investigate a potential political opponent and delay of aid to ukraine were wrong and appropriate but i do not believe that the president's

actions rise to the level of removing a duly elected president from office and taking him off the ballot in the middle of the election. bring in washington anchor from bbc news america katty kay and amy klobuchar of minnesota. so first, let's begin with you, senator. what's your reaction to those republicans who are now coming out saying what the president did was wrong but is not removable? >> well, first of all, i wish i was sitting there right now with you in iowa, joe, where i was yesterday and i'm coming back today. i think you see we are doing incredibly well there and surging right at the end but i felt it's my constitutional duty to come back and i believe the people of iowa understand we're having the closing arguments and i am sickened by what my republican colleagues have been saying. i think this is a search for the truth. regardless how they voted and will vote on

think one of the most krit accr vote on witnesses's they didn't want to hear the truth. they know exactly what john bolton was going to say, put it in his manuscript see and i don think the truth is coming out in five years but in five days in five weeks and this is going to be on their shoulders. >> katty kay, seems that, katty kay will have a question for you in a second, senator, but katty, seems that the republicans could have done this in the very beginning. even in the house, and saved themselves a lot of humiliation saying, yes what he did was wrong. now let's have a rational debate on whether it justifies removal of a president from office. would have been on much firmer ground. but these republicans who were saying it, lamar zaalexander sa in particular, what he did was inappropriate but we don't want to hear the entire story.

so joe biden can't testify. >> i mean, this whole shift in the republican argument. initially starting with, he didn't do it. i think that's the problem. started saying he didn't do it. of course, if he had it wouldn't be good. we wouldn't like that. oh, yeah, he did do it -- seen it continuously through the trump presidency and trump election campaign's in 2016. the goal post shifts dramatically when members of his party have to realize what they're actually dealing with. >> and more dramatically than lindsey graham, chairman of the judiciary committee who said if there was a quid pro quo, then i'm going to have problems with that. lindsey found out there was. everybody admitting it in the senate but says, instead call it is a "lynching." >> in a way, perhaps the most surprising or hypocriticaical i joni ernst talking about the corruption issue when it comes to president trump. the president that suggested we should overturn american companies not being able to give

bribes abroad. donald trump known for corruption in his business dealings and supposedly in his presidency, too. yet holds corruption very important. >> way to make them squeal. >> and senator ernst ran out to camerasance kasie rohknows, how will this play out in iowa? giving away the political game. senator klobuchar, curious to know, as you listen to closing arguments and the full impeachment on wednesday, the acquittal, have republicans expressed privately having to hold their nose through the vote and acknowledge what they're doing is difficult and perhaps wrong? and if so, why are they doing it? sort of the existential question of our time. what are republicans scared of? >> you know, i think that they are scared of donald trump. they are scared of some parts of their days, but what i think

they are missing and i want to get back to iowa, because except for my constitutional duty i would be sitting there, right there with you right now, what i see at our events are more and more people coming up saying, i have been a republican my whole life. i'm changing parties. i'm caucusing for you. i just had the mayor, the republican mayor of indianola, iowa, switch parties to caucus for me. i have two former republican legislators from the state of iowa who are caucusing for me. andy mckean, a republican legislator his whole time is still in the legislature, has endorsed me, because he changed parties back in the spring. this is not just one state. you're seeing what happened in the winning race in kentucky, and what just happened in louisiana, where we re-elected a democratic governor. this is a decency check a patriotism check. while my republican colleagues may be afraid of their base, there are people out there right

now in the states that have had it. they may not agree with everything that's said on the democratic debate stage. i don't agree with everything that's said on that debate stage, but what they are looking for is a candidate who's going to unite the country and bring decency back. and that is my pitch from the very beginning when i announced in the middle of the blirczzard and a lot of he'll didn't think i would get through that blizzard, and literally i'm a few points behind some of the people that you devote a lot of air time to on your show and last week was ahead of a few of them. i think you should be looking at our campaign tonight if you want to see a surgeons -- surge and we're headed to new hampshire tonight. >> were saying, jonathan lemire off-camera, who has a question now. >> senator, you wished you

tonight from your campaign. you say you have momentum, sort of the insurgent candidate. what place do you need to see to make yourself do well in iowa? is there a scenario you do not go on to new hampshire and beyond? >> there's no scenario i don't go on. just endorsed by every newspaper including union leader and candidates that endorse me. we have half of the top leadership in the house in new hampshire that have endorsed me. we have an incredible operation and we're leaving on the plane late tonight going to new hampshire but i think i will do well in iowa. i don't put numbers on it. you guys can be the pundits, the fact we're in the top five when we've had 25 candidates and i am the one that has been able to keep going and build the surge, punching above my weight when you look at the finances of so many of my other opponents, i'd say we've got a good story already.

>> you know, our brazen pundit prediction for tonight, senator, we have absolutely no clue what is going to happen. so good luck tonight, thank you, thank you, iowa! >> she's mentioned it enough. if not for her constitutional duties she's be sitting right here with us. senator klobuchar -- >> by the way. [ applause ] >> kasie, she brought up her announcement. man, that was minnesota viking tough with the snow coming down. >> awesome. >> i expected, like, ta-da! and nfl film slow motion, like -- stuff -- that was a beautiful day. >> quite something. i still remember the picture from that. look, senator klobuchar brings up a great point. this was a huge field and here she is on the eve of the iowa caucus with many others that quite frankly probably wouldn't have predicted, already out of this race. >> right.

>> by now, still, here she is. i will say, i picked it up in talking to people in des moines. you can tell it's, again, all up for grabs. she's right in the middle of it. >> and i don't think you can fall asleep on amy klobuchar or elizabeth warren right now. >> no. >> only because one, you know, we've been talking about elizabeth dropping for the past several months, but she's got a good field organization. that could come through for her tonight. and amy does have momentum. >> wide open. >> a pretty good time. coming up, we'll talk to two more democratic presidential candidates when pete buttigieg and andrew yang join the conversation. "morning joe" is back in a moment. ♪

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brad couldn't be here tonight due to family obligations so he asked me to read his response for him. y saying, hey,

briton. heard you just became single. welcome to the club. welcome back to "morning joe." it's 39 past the hour. live here at java joe's and joining us now u.s. national editor at the financial times, ed loos. so, ed, what exactly are you doing here? >> put out the -- answering that, going from rally to rally and went to a great rally in cedar rapids saturday night where my sole task go around asking if birdie was the nominee would you vote for him? about two-thirds said yes. next question if bloomberg was nominee would you vot for him? pretty much nobody said yes. that kind of thing you don't get sit thg d.c. i love iowa. coming back to iowa since 2007. so this is my fourth cycle.

>> yeah. so katty, talk about once upon a time in hollywood and brad pitt. incredible. >> yeah. i think he's really an underestimated actor. he was great in that. the whole scene, all of it is good. the scene with the dog, obliterates all those people invading the house. >> wait, wait, wait. spoil alert. >> spoil alert. brad pitt takes his heart is off and homage. great moment. right? >> no longer underrated. winning every award and will likely win the oscar for best supporting actor. great movie for him to win. >> incredible scene. now back to iowa. >> yeah. and that was -- >> no, no. >> still trying to follow that diversion. >> so talk about the energy on the ground. did you see a lot of energy on the ground with bernie? what about elizabeth's campaign? what are you seeing here people may not be picking up in the polls? >> i think the polls are picking up the energy you do see with bernie but probably don't pick

up, something put it quite well a 20% floor there but a 25% ceiling. very sort of rigid almost sectarian feel to the bernie crowd. the rest feels incredibly fluid. so what i would say is, it's going to be very high turnout, i think, tonight. >> yes. >> but very, very unpredictable for earn else, whoever it is, that comes second to bernie in the popular vote. >> right. >> i'm not making predictions on the delegates or the second round of voting, but that's really fluid. klobuchar could surge. you know, she has a lot of energy. i didn't -- i didn't feel that much energy at the warren veents. >> events. >> but she has a way of giving very, very good tutorials about policy that aren't necessarily sort of like millennial concerts. the bernie event. >> they are concerts. >> like a millennial concert. >> literally. so jonathan, ed brings up a

great point. basement, the floor of 20%, ceiling maybe 25%. if you look at some of the polls, which means, in iowa especially, you've got to get 15% to go to the next round. what happens to all of those people that get pushed to the side after? >> right. and they'll be up for grabs. i think to bernie's point, to ed's point about bernie, we know he is consistent. his believers are there. supporters are there and not going anywhere. were he to win iowa and the favorite now and on to new hampshire, the favorite there, too. momentum is there and he'll see voters from the other candidates give him another chance because he's proving he can win. that's been the idea. someone's holding him back, don't think, he's too left, and to nish. able to wrap up victories other than democrats see their candidates fall off to the side may look to him. particularly elizabeth warren were to stumble.

and i'll say i think there's a resurgence for warren in particular and h turn out votes tonight. >> can win democratic primaries. went to klobuchar and biden rally. a lot of concern whether bernie is viable on a national stage. they're older. klobuchar rallygoers older, biden rallygoers older. big issue, dot young people turn out in the kind of numbers people thought they would last time around and didn't. >> first if they d. a first if they did. or still that older electorate? in which case it's very hard how it doesn't help the other candidates. >> and steve kornacki says the younger voters that turned out, turn out in concentrate the areas around college campuses. you may have a higher vote total and a lower delegate total. >> yeah. which could yield a split result it's a we've said all morning. those numbers are extraordinary.

nationally also in iowa, when you break it down by age. look at those cross-tabs. bernie sanders, elizabeth warren have almost all of the young energy. andrew young has a bunch too. joe biden polls in single digits in every poll. his support comes from the older voters. do all of those college kids turn out tonight could be decisive. >> the biden camp will push back against the argument we've made about crowd size. the idea he's bringing smaller crowds. voters know joe biden and don't need to see him again and when it matters will turn out for him. >> ed loos, great to have you here. we mentioned andrew yang, coming up, he's been to every iowa caucus since the steelers beast rams. tom brokaw has come a long way since his days at iowa university. he's up ahead, but first another 2020 presidential candidate is standing by. pete buttigieg joins the set

after -- really, getting the crowd excited. we'll be right back. andrew yang joins us. (man sneezes) what's the time? device: a dime is ten cents. severe cold or flu?

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[ applause ] all right. welcome back to "morning joe." and presidential candidate andrew yang joins us. he's like railing up the crowd. get with the crowd andrew yang. >> very excited. >> enjoy it. >> andrew a poll we've talked about, the youth vote and bernie, bought poll came out, youth vote poll came out actually showed you -- >> number one among the youngs! thank you, young >> so how is that going to translate into you shocking the political world tonight? >> well, that youth poll

state-wide has been an uncannily accurate predictor of what happens in the real caucus in large part was 17-year-olds who participated in the vote can caucus tonight. we think that winning that poll trance lalslates to the fact tha ton of enthusiasm and excitement around our campaign that we believe is going to arllow us t overperform tonight. >> we talked about it when you were first coming up. how do you move your campaign to what it's been, to expand more to the general electorate? because it's been -- i mean, it's been a energized group of people. but you said next step is we've got to get this message out to the general populous. >> that's been the excitement of this last several months, joe, is that we've been just going to towns around iowa where people have never heard of andrew yang. they don't have math hats on. you know, they're frankly older

voters who haven't been on some of the sites that i became popular on. so i have been making my case to them personally for months now. i believe that the numbers, we did over 180 events in the state. i just completed a 17-day bus tour where we were crisscrossing the state. the best part of these events, joe, is no one had ever seen anything about me before or heard of me. maybe they had seen one of my ads because we have been spending a lot of money on advertisement in the state. >> what's your campaign doing to get those young people actually to the polls when it matters? like i have heard reports of elizabeth warren providing child care for people who want to caucus for you. is there anything you can do to sort of stop the repetitive reality that young people don't show up? >> i'm offering them $1,000 a month starting at age 18. >> that could work. that could work.

>> i think that works. i'm going to ask you about a moment, i believe it was on saturday at one of your events when you asked the crowd of democratic supporters, presumab presumably, to stop and give a round of applause for trump voters in 2016. strategically, i get it. you want to bring in the disaffected voters. but in this age of division that stood out as an extraordinary moment. why did you stop and do that? >> i think it's really important, particularly here in iowa, to try to bring people together, because iowa is a purple swing state that went to trump by almost ten points. and so if you look at the ground here, many people voted for trump or certainly they have friends and neighbors who voted for trump. so if you're going to make the case to the people of iowa that you can help bring the country together, that has to start right here among the people that went to trump just a few years ago. the folks who voted for trump and come to my events are now excited about my campaign. that's how we're going to win.

and head-to-head matchups between me and trump show i'm the heaviest favorite to beat him one-on-one, in large part because 18% of college republicans say they would support me over the president, 10% of trump voters in new hampshire in one poll said they would support me over the president. you know who figured this out? president trump, because i'm the only candidate he has not tweeted a word about. he knows i'm betterer at the internet than he is. >> andrew, we had you on "the circus" last night. thank you for being on the show. one of the things i learned from the interview is you were a sanders supporter in 2016. i'm curious, there's going to be caucus sites where given your level of support, you're not going to make the 15% threshold. some number. there's 1900 caucus sites. you're a math guy, we can do the math. when you think about your supporters, as they think about a second choice, that they are sanders people and that's where they're likely to gravitate in the same way you talked about

how you were previously a sanders supporter? >> i think there's a lot of overlap between my supporters and bernie's. for example, bernie was second in the youth poll we were talking about. at the same time, i think some of my supporters will head towards pete, amy, elizabeth, joe. all down the list. i did donate to bernie's campaign in 2016, but then i voted for hillary in the general because i'm pro civilization. >> that's radical. >> we have to make it nonradical, katty. >> i have a couple kids who are very interested in your campaign, but even they will say to me, we just don't think he's going to get out of that fifth place you're bumping around in in pretty much all of the polls at the moment. what do you do if you come out of iowa still in fifth, sixth place. how are you going to launch into somebody who people who seems

viable but just isn't going to be a presidential candidate? >> there was another poll that showed me to be among the least disappointing field in the democrats. a lot of people would be perfectly happy with me. i think we're going to have a great night tonight, katty, and i think we're particularly strong in new hampshire, upcoming. new hampshire has been a very natural home for me and my campaign since day one. i'm excited for tonight, but i'm excited about next week as well. >> willie and i did very well in he doesn't completely suck as a cable news host poll that came out. >> one and two. >> yeah, one and two, exactly. >> statistical tie. >> it was close. >> we just put up a poll. >> this poll is fascinating. >> a poll that was very fascinating. it jumped out to a lot of people. the question was, will you support the democratic nominee even if he or she is not your candidate. your supporters, 42% of them said no. >> what? >> in other words, it's about you and not about the democratic candidate. what's your reaction to that?

would you suggest they support whoever the nominee is? >> i would suggest that support whoever the nominee is. i'm on the record saying i'm going to support whoever the nominee is, because job one is beating donald trump and getting him out of there. >> bottom line. okay. >> but i will say that a poll shows i'm drawing in people who voted for donald trump in the general in 2016. i'm getting libertarians, the platically dissen agengagdiseng. kwm exciting people who haven't been typically in the democratic party. that means i can grow the party. >> why do you think you excite people in a way other democrats don't? >> i think i'm talking about different problems in different ways with different solutions than most of the other candidates. most of the other candidates are speaking politically, and i'm not a career politician, as you know. i'm a data and numbers guy. to me, the most compelling

numbers right now in my mind, this economy is not working for the vast majority of american families. the question is how do you change that? my solution is to put money directly into americans' hands, which would improve their way of life very quickly and directly. that's a different conversation than most politicians have been offering for years. it's one reason why i'm drawing in new voters. >> andrew yang, thank you for joining us. great to have you. . >> and still ahead, 2020 presidential candidate and former mayor pete buttigieg will join us right here on set. he's standing by right now. former senator claire mccaskill, moveon.org. nbc's tom brokaw, uh-oh. uh-oh, joe. "hardball's" chris matthews. "morning joe" live from java joe's in des moines. back in a moment. swoman] meet te ninja foodi pressure cooker,

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the whole world is looking at iowa. the whole world is asking whether or not the people in iowa are prepared to stand up and fight for justice. >> i also want to say thank you to everybody who got in this presidential race. whether they're still in it or not. you know, people got in this out of an act of service to our country. and some different ideas about how to do it. but all wanting us to build a better america. and we're down to the final strokes here, but understand we will, we must come together as a party and beat donald trump. that is our job.

>> i was gone the last ten days. something i never expected to happen. i do a lot of grassroots politicking. you're not going to see one of my ads in the super bowl tonight. i wish, maybe if the vikings were playing, you would have. but instead, i have been doing this the hard way. and i have been punching way above my weight. there were certain pundits that predicted when i started that speech in the middle of the mississippi river in a blizzard that i would never make it to the end of the speech. now here i am nearly a year later. >> "morning joe" live from java joe's in des moines, iowa. come on in, join us. it's caucus night here in iowa. monday, february 3rd, and join the conversation. we have all-star panel. former u.s. senator now an nbc news and msnbc political

analyst, claire mccaskill.ing u birthday, and the host of msnbc's "hardball," chris matthews. >> so claire, 50 years since lin dawson and ed podulack and hank scram won a super bowl. you saw it happen last night in pretty dramatic fashion. it's got to feel great this morning. >> somebody asked me when i got here this morning, were you in a box? no, no, no. i was in a seat. you know, i wanted to see every down, every play. it was incredibly exciting. and the stadium was really dominated by chiefs fans. it was so much fun afterwards. the joy and the exhilaration. those guys, they just played with a lot of heart. mahomes just stays so cool under pressure for such a young player. it's really phenomenal. >> for a young player like that to come back three consecutive playoff games the way he did,

just unprecedented. >> it was unbelievable to watch. and you know, the defense, when they had to get the stop, they got the stop. and all the talk about san francisco's defense being so good. there you go. all right. yeah, iowans are chiefs fans, right? >> that's right. >> exactly. so tom brokaw, we celebrated tom's birthday last night. >> yes, we did. >> watching the super bowl. >> happy birthday. you have been to a few of these. tell us, what are your thoughts? >> my 11th one, actually, that i have been to. this one interested me in part because there's no, for all the talk about who's ahead and who's behind, there's no kind of congealed sense of what the democratic party is all about. >> one of the things we were just talking about that troubles me a good deal, almost no talk about military affairs, foreign policy, we're in the longest wars in this nation's history.

as we sit here today, young men and women are in harm's way. not just in the middle east, but northern africa and other places. that's not been on the agenda at all, so i do think that the democrats at some point are going to have to engage that and tell us what they have in mind as we go forward. >> yeah, chris, you have covered quite a few of these yourself. what are your thoughts going into tonight? >> that's a great point. i have been to democratic events in the middle of the first iraq war, but they never mentioned it. the whole party was there. what are my thoughts? i'm not happy. i'm not happy with this field. i think they have to find a candidate for president that can beat trump. >> you don't think anybody in the field can beat trump? >> i'm still looking. >> what's the problem? >> obvious problems. bernie sanders is not going to be president of the united states. okay. i went back to the '72 race, i was a young volunteer for the dnc, working for a senator from utah at the time. i've got to tell you, it feels a lot like it. a lot of giddiness, excitement. i'm thrilled about this guy.

>> a lot like mcgovern? >> exactly, because he was very exciting. excited the party completely. blew away a really good candidate, blew him out of the water because he had issues. analytically, i think a couple things have happened. one is warren was riding high. i thought she was going to sweep through everything. she would just keep going. what happened? she got a lot of scrutiny. you don't want a lot of scrutiny. she got a lot of it. does this stuff add up, the medicare for all, the free college. all that stuff got killed. guess who's going to get it now? bernie's going to get it now. he's finally going to get scrutiny about his whole life, who did he root for his whole life. who is this guy idealogically? it's not just the stuff about health care. why does he say the stuff high does. why does he say denmark one week? people have to figure out who the guy is. i think i know because i have dealt with these guys most of my adult life. they're usually the guys at the

card tables at the anti-war rally. some old guy with some old literature from this socialist party or that trying to sell it, trying to latch on to the anti-war movement. there's always guys like that. as howard fien once said, nonnegotiable demands. i know them, but i think the country is going to get to know him. i think we have a problem. we'll see. but nobody is going to say it tonight. they're all going to be cheering, good old bernie. i think he's going to win tonight. real big. >> so claire, we have been talking about how the story is going to be, the headline tomorrow is going to be whoever wins and then where joe biden sits. if it's second place, biden survives, moves on to new hampshire. does well. likely. but if he finishes fourth, which is very possible, any of these candidates except for bernie, could end up in fourth place. then he's got a real challenge. what are you looking for tonight? >> well, i think he does have a real challenge if he ends up

fourth. but you know, i really wish we would spend more time talking about the irony of a caucus being first for a democratic party. i don't have any problem, i mean, maybe we should rotate whether iowa is always first. sorry, iowa, but i don't like the caucus idea because if you are working parents, you have to find a babysitter. if you're a waitress at a local restaurant, you can't participate. when you do primaries, you can vote anytime during the day. and everyone can weigh in. this is really geared towards retirees and college students. and bernie's going to do very, very well with the college students. the retirees are probably going to split their votes somewhat between some of the other candidates. so i think it will be interesting to see how it turns out, but i would like to see us get to a process in the democratic party where we want working people to be able to participate. the ones who work a night shift ought to be able to participate.

>> so tom -- so tom, i remember in 2008, we were in new hampshire. everybody was talking about how barack obama was going to win. and you said around the "morning joe" table with tim russert, hey, i've got a radical idea. let's let the people vote first. and then we'll report tomorrow on how they voted. we're all in front of the story right now, saying bernie is going to win based on everything we have seen. the people haven't voted yet, though. it sort of feels eerily reminiscent of that day in february of 2008. >> well, i've got a malfunction in my microphone here. joe, what i do believe is the people in iowa like to see us here because it empowers them in a way, but at the same time, they make it clear to us, we're in charge. we're going to decide who we're for and who we're against. as claire was making the issue

about showing up and having to make a kind of public appearance, yesterday, i was talking to an iowa pollster and she was saying, look, in a town of 2,000, if you step forward, you're stuck with that. in fact, the rest of the year people are going to say you were for that person, and i'm not for him. so i think we really think it needs re-formation. would you like to see something we have been doing out here in iowa? >> yes. >> absolutely. >> i decided that having spent a lot of time here, the university of iowa has a first-class journalism department, and they're covering this. they're out there covering it every day, and they're learning about for the next phase of their lives, and i met somebody here four years ago that we're going to hear from as we take a look at what iowans are saying about what's going on. >> all right. >> for any budding political reporter, this is the show.

and the student journalists at the university of iowa are seizing their moment. >> our mission is to figure out how can we engage our students in the process, and that's through the journalism we produce. >> a circulation of almost 9,000, the daily iowan has been churning out high-level political coverage since the candidates began crisscrossing the state last summer. >> these candidates are getting hundreds of people to come out to these events in communities that have 5,000, 10,000 people. iowans are very informed, very engaged. >> the biggest thing that's hard for me to explain to my parents back home is the way campaigning works. >> i have a hard time explaining it as well. >> the rules of the game on the ground are complicated. not a recipe for easy answers. >> there could be different candidates who win each metric of support. so we could see four or five tickets out of iowa this year with just how many people are jumbled at the top of the polls.

>> you've just explained why so many people in america think the iowa caucus system needs to be reformed. >> candidates come and go. but what remains the same -- >> what do you like about each -- >> the need to talk to people face-to-face, hear what matters to them. amanda stopped for me when i'm in iowa, charlie goods convenience store and gas station about 40 miles north of des moines. in 2016, good caucused for the first time ever, for then-candidate donald trump. >> i wanted a businessman in there that could run the country like a business. >> are you at all troubled by the other parts of him, however? >> i thought he would stop doing the tweeting after he got elected. no i like some of the things he >> you're sitting in the middle of iowa, in the middle of thede. you're surrounded by bernie sanders, by joe biden, by buttigieg, and all the others, and you're hearing that 24/7. >> i may not be the smartest

tack in the bunch, but the numbers don't add up. how are you going to pay for all this stuff? the younger generation now, they don't seem to understand this is all going to come out of their payroll taxes. i'm living in the best economy of my lifetime, the lowest unemployment. when the tax cuts came through, i was able to give my people more money. >> at the end of this year, we'll be electing a new president. who wins? >> donald trump. because i think there's a lot of people out there that aren't going to tell you. they're just going to go do it and vote. and that's what i think. >> you know, chris, the convenience store owner there that tom talked to, and that was great, tom, sounds like a lot of people that i know in northwest florida. sounds like a lot of people you know in pennsylvania. >> for sure. >> sounds like a lot of people that claire knows in missouri, where they go listen, i don't like him, but i don't have to like him. i don't have to like his tweets. i like the economy. i like -- i liked what's going on right now. i'm going to vote for him again.

>> i don't think it's a revolutionary period right now in our country's history. revolution, you're from inside the beltway, but that's where they pass the tax laws. i want to know how he's getting the 60 votes for all that stuff in the u.s. senate. >> bernie? >> yeah, where is he going to get 60 votes. he never talks about reality. it takes skith votes for a new program, at least a majority to change tax structure. ted kennedy was around, they gave him 60 votes, after that, we had to go through reconciliation. there's rules, and bernie has never passed anything. and now he's saying i'm going to do all this stuff. >> wait. who does that -- >> i'm sorry. before somebody tells you what they're going to do, ask what they have done. >> we could ask the same, willie, i hate to keep going back to this, we could go back to donald trump, who said i'm the best at fill in the blank. believe me. i'm the best at such and such, believe me.

and the republican establishment said no, he can't do it. this guy doesn't know what he's doing. >> chris looks like he disagrees. >> i don't think there's a comparison because i think trump took over the republican party. i do not think bernie sanders is going to take over the democratic party. >> claire, what about you? >> i think it's tough. you know, here's what's going to happen. if bernie comes out of here, especially if he comes out of here strong, he's going to get a thorough vetting for the first time in his presidential politics. there has not been -- you know, i was talking to a reporter the other day, and he wanted me to talk about, and i said i'm just curious, the number one problem that i hear democrats talk about is gun violence. and gun safety. and i'm not seeing one front page article on "the new york times" or "the washington post" about bernie's really complicated history with guns. and his endorsement by the nra. normally, a candidate, that would be everywhere. but because the opponents of

bernie have not gone after him, not in 2016 with negative ads. i have had more negative ads run against me in missouri than bernie has ever had running against him running for president twice. millions and millions of dollars worth. >> why is that, people didn't take him seriously? >> i think because there's such a lot of consternation about keeping us unified. we need all of bernie's voters, all of elizabeth's voters, biden's voters, everyone who is running, we need everyone to come together to beat trump. there's a real fear about offending bernie's supporters. >> but tom, we can talk about all of this. we can talk about how the numbers may not add up. he may not be able to pass anything. but bernie does something that most of these other candidates don't. he connects on a gut level. they will walk through walls for this man. which means they will caucus for him tonight.

>> the question is, how many of them will do that? we don't want to get ahead of ourselves in declaring this is bernie's week, and bernie is going to win here. remember, howard dean, the saturday before the iowa caucuses, he was a lock. >> yeah. >> he finished third. now, it doesn't mean the senator is going to finish third, but it does mean we have to be careful because i think it's a very volatile situation out there. i think a lot of people are going to show up in living rooms and halls and other things and talk to each other. iowans are late deciders very often. they're making sdizs right now as we talk about what's going on, and so we have to really think about that and where we go from here, and let's also remember, it's only the first one. >> only the first one. >> this is not the decider, folks. >> ted cruz won here four years ago. before donald trump swept. but willie

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welcome back to "morning joe." we're at java joe's. again, it feels like home here for good reason. we have been coming for so long. you know, tom brought up a great point before we went to break. and that is this is just a first. we have a long way to go. but it is important, though, is it not, especially to joe biden tonight? he has to have a strong showing. >> a good showing. >> he has to have a good showing. you know, he's going to win south carolina. he's going to win one of these four early primaries, no question about it. bernie is going to come first or second in several of them. and then we have to see what happens with mayor pete,

elizabeth, and whether or not amy can break into the top three in iowa. i think that's a tall drink of water for her. but it's possible. the weird thing about this year, joe, we have something we have never had before. we have essentially a new entry into the race on super tuesday. we have mayor mike bloomberg. we have never had that before. that is a very different scenario, and those are big expensive states. and he's going to be able to -- he's got huge -- he's got a field staff in missouri right now. he's the only presidential candidate who has a field staff, a large field staff, in missouri. >> charlie good, the man i was interviewing, strong republican. i said what about bloomberg, i'm really interested in. because he has values he sees in trump about being a pro-business guy. as we know, the mayor is spending whatever it takes. and he's moving up in the polls. it's a long shot, no question about it. no one knows that better than he

does, but he's going to roll the dice and see if he can't pull this off. if it stays going into this one, if it stays kind of unresolved about the candidates who are out there, there's probably an opening for him of some kind when it comes to super tuesday. we have never been to a year in my lifetime quite like this where it's so -- you have a president who was impeached but not found guilty. a president who is very controversial. you have an economy, as charlie good said, the best economy of my lifetime. a lot of things in play here that don't fit the old standard about how this is going to get worked out. >> tom brokaw, chris matthews, thank you both for being on. still ahead on "morning joe," for weeks now, she's been on the campaign trail in iowa, trying to help seal the deal for her husband. we'll talk with jill biden joining us next. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back.

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i don't predict wins because i'm superstitious, but i predict we'll do very well. we're going to come out of iowa and several more are going to come out of iowa. we then have two primaries and one more caucus. i think at the end of that time, you're going to have a clear idea of who's where and how and i feel good about where i am. >> moment ago, about how he's feeling on today's caucuses. joining us now, educator and author and former second lady of the united states of america, dr. jill biden. also with us for the conversation, senior adviser at moveon.org, karine jean-pierre joins us here at java joe's. dr. jill biden, i have been watching you all over the campaign trail, on instagram. you have been just kind of leaving everything on the table. how are things feeling for tonight? >> great. they're feeling great. i'm excited. i feel, you know, strong.

i think we're going to do this. >> and where do you think that joe will have the biggest strength here in iowa? what are the voters you're seeing really connecting with him? he's great with people. >> he is. >> but the field is -- it's exciting. it's kind of hard to even tell who might come out on top. people are talking bernie, bernie, bernie. >> they can keep talking bernie, but it's going to be joe. so it feels good. and i think, you know, i have been traveling all over this mostly rural iowa. i think really what iowans, you can ask them what they're looking for is character. and joe shows that strength of character. he connects with the voters. he has empathy. he understands their problems. and i think that's what they're looking for. >> talk about what it's been like for your family to have the president of the united states calling world leaders, asking them to dig up dirt --

>> disgraceful. >> on your husband and your son, and that republicans actually will -- i'll just say it, i saw it yesterday and i was shocked she's still say it, joni ernst saying in an interview joe biden as president could be impeached because he stopped an investig knows that is a lie. she knows that one of the reasons the prosecutor was fired was because he was not investigating burisma. >> what is wrong with senator ernst? really, what is wrong with her? >> listen, frankly, i was a little shocked that she said something so massively irresponsible. >> mean spirited. >> she and i don't agree on much, but for her to go there and just lie to the people of iowa like that. >> that's the thing, is it was a lie. >> it's a lie. >> she knows it's a lie.

>> look at this president. they're all lies. >> your family being the focus. here and in ukraine and even in china. >> well, what does that tell you? that donald trump is afraid of going up against joe biden. >> the bottom line. >> that's the bottom line. >> when you listen to these campaign speeches, dr. biden, from all the candidates, bernie sanders, elizabeth warren, andrew yang in some ways as well, talking about the sort of progressive revolution. that seems to be where the energy is among young people. we have come to an interesting place in the democratic party where barack obama's vice president is considered too centrist too moderate. what does your husband say to progressives who may still be looking around for who they want to vote for, but they think he's not left enough for us. >> he isn't left. he is a moderate. i think that's what most americans want, is a moderate. that he doesn't have these far out ideas that you can't pay for, and oh, yes, it will be a trillion dollars and we'll

figure it out later. no, he's practical. he's pragmatic. he knows how he's going to pay for things. i think that's what americans are looking for. >> do you think bernie sanders and elizabeth warren are selling a fantasy to voters with some of their programs and their ideas? >> well, i think they're a little too far out there. if they could tell us how they're going to pay for things. maybe that might be reasonable, but that's why, you know, that's why i'm supporting joe biden. >> so dr. biden, if you had an undecided caucusgoer in front of you right now, which if you look -- >> which i may. >> which you may, and if you look at the polling, that number is pretty high. what would you tell them to support your husband? >> i would say this is a referendum on character. and joe shows -- can show how strong he is, what kind of a leader he is. he's ready to go. he has the experience. when he walks into that oval office day one, he takes over the job.

and i think people -- it's really about character. >> claire? >> you know -- [ applause ] >> thank you. >> there were a lot of people that had a lot of angst about the email extravaganza with hillary, and that she never really confronted it forcefully. i know it's probably hard for my friend and your husband joe biden to give any credence to what they're trying to do to him in terms of smearing a guy who is as straight as the day is long into some kind of nefarious character. it's just outrageous to those of us who know him. but what are the internal discussions about when -- i mean, really, if you think about it, i mean this is a president who all of his children are grifting off the white house. >> yes. >> they're all making money off

being president. so not somebody on the board, but they're actually making money off being president. so why are -- what is the decision about not confronting this more forcefully and really taking it on with a big speech or trying to really try to put it to bed so that it doesn't linger out there? >> well, you know, the voters will decide. they're going to be the ones making the decision. they know who donald trump is. and they know it's disgraceful what he's done. it's a distraction. and obviously, donald trump does not want to run against my husband. >> well, there you go. so before you go, many months ago in philadelphia, i was interviewing you on your book, and you talked a lot about being a community college professor. and how you did it during the eight years of joe's vice presidency. much of the time, a lot of the kids and students not even knowing that you were the second lady. so you said day one, joe will be

ready. day one, will you work still? if he's in the white house? >> i would love to work. i would love to work. if i could figure out how to do it, i would be in the classroom. i couldn't do it full time, but just if i could teach one course. as you know, it's my passion. >> your happy place. >> yes, it's my happy place. >> what do you do for education if you're the first lady? what would your initiative be? >> joe's education plan is so great. i like to say, it's teacher approved. so we're going to -- really, we're going to raise up the profile of teachers and celebrate who they are and give them better pay and give our students resources. we're going to fight the nra, make sure that our kids and our schools are safe. i mean, joe's plan -- we're going to get rid of betsy devos, number one. so we're going to have a secretary of education who has been in the classroom. these are all things that i have

personally seen and have been important to me as a teacher. and i have talked to teachers all across this nation. and you know, when joe biden is elected president of the united states -- >> ben there, done that. >> when he's elected president, when you look right next to him, there will be standing a teacher. >> so there you go. >> thank you so much. so great to have you on. great to see you. >> thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> good luck tonight. >> thanks. >> coming up, our third presidential candidate of the morning. former mayor pete buttigieg joins the conversation. keep it right here on "morning joe." as a struggling actor,

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i know this is groundhog day. but tomorrow is the day after, so let's agree that the less 2020 reminds us of 2016, the better. we're going to have a different kind of election inside and outside. >> back at the coffee bar here, java joe's. joining us now, democratic presidential candidate, former mayor pete buttigieg of south bend, indiana. you have a lot of fans here and also our girls. your daughter -- he's my favorite, please tell him i say hi. my daughter, omg, i love him. so is your husband here, and the dog with one eye? >> so, buddy is holding down the home front in south bend. chacin is on the road with me and we're looking forward to a

big night. >> how is it going? >> it's great. we have done 55 events in the last swing through iowa. and the energy is fantastic. great crowd here in des moines. also, we have been going to a lot of the rural areas and counties that famously swung from obama to trump. we're seeing so many people come out of the woodwork. a lot of them self-identify as the future former republicans that i like to talk about. they know we're not going to agree on everything, but they're also as ready as the rest of us to get a new and better president. we're building that coalition that is going to show not just tell how to beat donald trump in november. >> so, this race appears to be close. anybody could win. what are you going to do today to give it your last push after this long marathon? >> today is really about keeping our people fired up. we have these amazing organizers. i meet them at every event i go to. they turn their lives upside down to come organize. >> isn't that amazing? >> it's unbelievable, humbling.

some are iowans. some will come to a town they have never been near in their life, and watching them and the community sort of adopt each other is one of the most inspiring things. the effect that participating in the campaign can have on people. we had one guy, he was struggling with agoraphobia. he hadn't left his home in three years. and is now a precinct captain because of the relationship the organizers formed. you see how a campaign, before the first vote is even cast, it can change lives to be involved in a campaign. so today, my focus is making sure they're motivated, fired up, insuring that they bring everybody out, and the persuasion is going to continue all the way to the last minute. one of the amazing things about the iowa caucuses is folks want to see what their neighbors think and want to be literally in the room with them making that decision. so we know that every minute, all the way up until the final numbers are tallied, matters. >> i'm curious, mr. mayor, how you'll be looking at the results tonight. this is your first time, so it's

the only way you'll know, but it's different than in the past, which is to say in the past, we have gotten the total delegates and that's determined the winner. this year, we're going to see the raw votes, how many people voted for which candidates. how will you look at the results? do you need to win here? is there a place in your mind that your campaign says that will be a good night for us? >> i'm leaving it to the pundits to do all the analytics. what i know is we have to have a vong showing. this is also a chance to demonstrate we can get support in a lot of different kinds of communities. of course, ultimately, it's all about getting the delegates that will bring us to the nomination at the convention, but also just making sure folks will turn out, will choose us, because for the last year, we have been making the case about this is the campaign organization best prepared to go beat donald trump. this is the chance to show versus tell that's the case, and proving all that begins here in iowa. >> jonathan. >> as the democratic caucus winds up here, there's been a lot of talk of your fellow

candidates talking about unity. your campaign in the last day or so send an email that suggested joe biden was using the same washington playbook, and bernie sanders was caught up in a revolution as opposed to working with the majority we already have in the country. is there something risky about focusing on the divisions? is it worth it in the party? >> i don't think it's an attack to say bernie sanders is calling for a revolution. i think that's the same thing he says. i'm trying to remind people about the choices we face. honest, meaningful differences in approach. i believe at a time like this, where we absolutely have to make sure we defeat donald trump in november, that means paying attention to what kind of nominee we're going to put forward. and without exception, 100% of the time, my party has won the white house in the last half century, it's been with a candidate who was looking to the future, a candidate who is opening the door to a new generation and somebody looking

at how to bring new people in the process and unite at the end of the day. i don't believe you have to choose between a revolution and a status quo. i don't believe that we have to fall back on the familiar at a time like this. in order to win and in order to govern. we have to be ready for a future that is throwing things at us from global health security challenges to an economy changed by technology and gig eering io new territory, and we have to be ready for that in order to win. >> you know, the iowa caucuses are different in that you have to get 15% viability in every caucus before it counts for delegates. so second choice is a big deal. >> that's right. >> how has your campaign strategized second choice? how have you gone about trying to talk to yang voters or klobuchar voters or steyer voters? amy may end up being viable in many caucuses because she's coming on strong in iowa, but

how are you strategizing that and how does it work internally? >> part of it is interms of how we try to reach out to folks who may not have us as their first choice but overall have the same general ideas and values that we share. one of the things i ask all of our organizers and our volunteers to pay attention to it is what we call the rules of the road. the kind of guiding principles and values of this campaign. the very first one is respect. even when we're competing, even in the heat of competition, we respect each other, we respect our competitors. i think that will also be important for the reason you're talking about. i don't see it as quite as transactional as some of the folks trying to game out all of the chess moves. >> midwest boy. >> yeah, and just understanding that we're all ultimately on the same team. we all share this goal of not just getting a new president but insuring that our country moves forward and becomes a better place. i do think that the way that our campaign staff and volunteers have approached people have respected the differences that we might have. i think that will serve us well

going forward. >> so you have been on the road for over a year. you have been really working hard at this for a couple years. i'm wondering, as you come down to the final day in iowa, what's your big takeaway? what's the one big thing that you have learned in all of your time here on the ground in the midwest? >> what sticks with you are the stories of the people you're encountering, because every day you get reminders that politics is about our personal lives. when somebody comes up to you and says i want you to win because i'm worried about my niece who is deployed right now in the military, when an 11-year-old comes up to you asking about insulin, this is on the mind of an 11-year-old, because he's got juvenile diabetes and wondering what's ahead. you have these constant reminders that when somebody comes to one of your events or when somebody shakes your hand on a rope line and mentioned an

issue, the thing they're going to bring up is the most important thing in your life that is affected by who is president. it creates certainly a sense of obligation. it's humbling, but it also creates this energy that motivates you to go on in this incredibly intense process. >> atthen end of the day, it's about helping people. people are looking to you and these other candidates to make their lives better. >> that's what it's about. that's why we as a species invented government. it's why politics exist. if you can keep focus on that, which is not easy because of all the noise and the sizzle and the horse race, but it's not a game. it's folks' lives. and the great thing about this process that cuts it down to c size, takes it off the air waves, puts you in the high school gym and the backyard, you're reminded of the eye to eye with the people who are really deciding whether to trust you with their lives >> mayor pete. thank you so much.

>> all right. thank you, mayor pete. we're just going to move to the other side of the bar. our road warriors are at the oh end of java joe's. we're heading to them right now, other end of the bar now. great to have you on. thank you so much. >> we're going to be talking to people that have been out here following the candidates for a long time, going to see what they have to say about what's happening. nbc news political reporter ali vitale, vaughn hilliard, mike memoli, thanks so much. what are you hearing out there? >> how about this. you talked to pete buttigieg. how many independents or republicans will caucus for him? last november i met this woman,

sherry jets. she told me the only person she would vote for in november over donald trump was pete buttigieg. she's not only caucusing but organizing. how many others are able to convince her in her town of jefferson. >> mika. >> yes. would you like some cookies? >> i am fine. >> ali, how's it looking, what do you think tonight looks like the end of the day? >> i found time with elizabeth warren, not the ideal scenario to close out the primary. she wants to be on the ground in iowa, out with voters, been in d.c. she did a lot of campaigning this weekend. i am interested seeing after realignment what that does for her. >> you have been out here so long, weeks and weeks and months. what does it feel like today.

he hasn't spent much time in the state, tried to make up for lost time this weekend, going to field locations, trying to rally supporters, volunteers. >> mike, you are following the guy supposed to be the frontrunner from the beginning, the frontrunner in most nsh polls. and today, we have no idea, how are they feeling on the biden campaign. are they nervous? >> i was on the bus with the vice president, he was "rewrire.

he thinks he has a fire wall in south carolina. super tuesday states look good as well. there's a feeling especially with michael bloomberg in the wings on super tuesday, feeling they wanted to go all in to end it early. could be the beginning of the end or end of the beginning. if he has a disappointing showing, if money dries up, it will be tough. >> the public line from any campaign, let the pundits decide what a win or loss is. when you talk to people on the biden campaign, do they have a sense of a spot, if they finish, we're in trouble? >> biden himself said if it is tightly bunched one through four, doesn't matter the order. if you're at 12 out of 25, you're done. he may regret that comment. the biden team, senior management is staying behind, depending on scare yus

scenarios. thank you all so much. let's get final thoughts. start with the cookie monster. >> maybe bernie for a big win or klobuchar. >> i don't think it is as clear cut as most would like the i think the results are murky. you could have two, three, four candidates claim victory when we leave here tomorrow. >> i think we won't have necessarily a clear winner, a lot of mixed messaging. i would watch for elizabeth warren under the radar the last couple weeks. maybe amy is finally connecting at the right time. >> this will be fun for those of us that like politics.

special coverage begins at 6:00 eastern from new york, a lot of folks on the ground. we'll be talking to everybody as caucuses gear up at 7:00 here, 8:00 out east. i like to pretend i know everything. >> you know what, kansas city chiefs. >> there's a cookie. willie. here you go. come on over, tim. thank you, mika. that's enough. we love being here so much. it means the world to us. thank you so much. we will be back for the general election campaign because we expect iowa is going to be in the middle of it. >> that does it for us. >> we'll be back after this quick break. e back after this quick break. ♪

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today, a split screen drama in american politics. >> it starts here. >> as the first votes are cast in iowa. >> if the turnout is high, we're going to win. >> senators weigh impeachment.

>> i'm not sure that they can do it to be honest. i think they just want to win. >> two history making events. >> the decision is going to begin right here in iowa. >> the iowa caucuses. >> iowa, you're tough. >> and the impeachment trial of donald