this is a live shot of an ongoing iowa caucuses in des moines, iowa, the doors closed in the caucuses more than 1600 across the state almost exactly one hour ago and all of these patriotic iowa voters are making their preferences known in presymptoms large and small. i'm rachel maddow in new york city with our iowa caucus coverage crew. we are bolstered by a great crew of reporters on the ground at caucus sites large and small and

we want to start off this hour by going back to dasha burns watching a spirited caucus process at kennedy elementary school. what's going on now? >> hey, rachel, a lot going on. some unexpected turns. last time we talked to you it was right after the first alignment and warren's group here did not reach viability. i have an update for you. warren has reached viability. [ cheers ] they got two amy klobuchar folks and one from tom steyer. pete buttigieg getting a lot though because amy -- [ cheers ] amy klobuchar did not reach viability. there were 27 people in her group and they've split off. mostly between buttigieg and biden so let's talk to a couple of these folks here. all right. you were with amy. now you're with pete.

tell me what happened. >> well, amy wasn't viable so i moved over to pete. i'm kind of looking for someone a little more middle of the road but new. >> what about you? >> about the same. yeah. what she said. >> all right, all right. what about in the biden camp, any amy klobuchar people in the biden camp now? over here. you were the one -- you were holding a big old amy sign. tell me what brought you over to biden. >> electability. >> seems to be the theme. >> experience, solid. he's been there. definitely. yep. yep. joe's been my number two. amy's been my number one. joe has been my number two. >> the way the numbers seem to be stacking up buttigieg definitely ahead. biden is number two. there are four viable candidates. buttigieg at the top. biden, bernie and warren. warren sneaking in at the last

minute after this realignment. >> dasha burns, it sounds like it will continue to be a fun night. we'll check in with you later on. >> interesting to hear the klobuchar/biden voter. getting some profiles of democratic voters who had a couple people on their list. >> i thought middle of the road but new is as good a butcher sticker for pete as any i've heard. that's literally the value proposition. enunciating it. middle of the road but new. >> you like that. >> middle of the road, it works. >> moderate but new. that's -- >> that's the proposition. >> that's what he's trying to say. turn the page, pete, over and over again. >> one of the favorite stories is katy tur in this raucous caucus. i wrote 849 is the number of attendees. 127 the threshle hold for viability and you are a starting to get numbers there.

>> so we're getting numbers right now, 127 as you said is viable. this yellow notepad right here, we'll lean over and look at it. that tells us the numbers. amy klobuchar, 140. she is viable. pete buttigieg, 172. he is viable. >> bernie sanders, 129. >> 129 for bernie sanders. he just makes it barely. >> klobuchar, warren and biden are viable. >> biden, you missed it is viable as well. 131. he barely scoots by so -- here, we're going to look at the notepad directly. sanders, 129, klobuchar, 140. warren, 212. biden, 131. stier, and yang, not viable. 48. 54. right?

52. i was not a math major. 52 people in this room who will potentially realign. you will have people from every one of these different campaigns go over to these two seconds. one of them where people are starting to move. this was the steyer area. they're already negotiating up there and then the yang section over here. i feel like if you're voting for andrew yang are you a more progressive voter, more moderate voter. will you go for buttigieg or klobuchar? are you going to go for sanders? or warren. let's go ask some of these folks. hey, guys, you're not viable. i'm sorry. who are you going to realign to? >> we're thinking about warren. >> warren. tell me why. >> well, number one she's killing it obviously. >> she has the most in this caucus. >> yep.

>> we have to. we could get her another delegate if we go over there. thank you, ladies. where do you think you're going? >> amy. >> amy. >> what about you? >> pete. >> listen to this, warren, amy, pete. the second choice is so important. >> we're going to bernie. >> what about you? >> fear's feeling the bern. >> we're about to feel the bern here. biden team, you just scooted by. >> just barely. >> bernie, i think. >> yeah, you were. >> very important. >> why is that important? >> because joe biden is electable and bernie isn't. i would vote for him against donald trump. >> what about elizabeth warren? >> it doesn't surprise me. i would vote for her gladly, certainly ahead of bernie. >> when you go make the -- what

do you say to the yang voters? >> electability. they need somebody who can beat donald trump. >> your top priority is beating donald trump. >> no, that's my only priority. >> only priority, thank you sir, very much. let's take an area view of this, jim, if you will. you're going to see folks as i said go around and try to convince people to vote. i'm good. how are you? to change sides, guys, because it's all about persuasion here in this caucus. it's all about telling your neighbor or your friend, why their candidate is the best candidate. we're also hearing a lot from folks about climb change and health care. we're hearing about the economy. you heard from that guy over there, we're hearing about electability. they think joe biden is the most electable. let's listen in. what are you guys doing over here. >> right now we're going to sit

for pete buttigieg. transition that way. >> you guys are students, right? okay. i should have known. sorry about that. tom steyer voter? >> i am. >> where are you going to go. >> mayor pete. >> what about you? >> mayor pete. >> pete. >> why pete? >> my second choice. >> your second choice. all right. so here's the aerial view. mayor pete is in the middle down there. he will get a couple more voters from yang and from steyer. elizabeth is over here on this side, elizabeth warren, she will get a couple voters. it's all about getting the highest number possible in this room because the highest number possible means the most amount of delegates. you heard the lady in the yang camp saying it all 26 went to -- they're not -- if all 26 went to warren she might get another delegate. there are three things that will be announced at the end of tonight, the number of voters in the first alignment. the popular vote and the popular

vote in the second alignment and delegates. delegates, the most delegates wins. back to you guy. >> katy tur, amazing work. we are keeping that in mind. we are doing one-tenth of what you are doing and none of us are walking upstairs while doing it. fascinating to watch the viability. i mean i was sort of keeping in mind that 127 was the threshold they needed to get. five viable candidates in that big caucus. >> bernie, the closest to the bottom. bernie the closest to the cutoff but sounds like he will pick up more. >> both biden and -- 131. overwhelming in terms of these, win for elizabeth warren >> that's des moines. >> i can't wait to see the final numbers because how big will bernie win on college campuses compared to how badly he will do

where there are not college campuses and will he do so well he overcomes the other candidates in terms of the raw vote. it will be fascinating to see. it appeared some of those college caucuses were larger in terms of how many people were there. i think one was over a thousand. >> this is not to get too into the weeds on this, one thing to watch if that's the dynamic is that the way they allocate the delegates has a little touch of the electoral college. the allocation of the delegates basically has you top out at a certain point in terms of how many delegates you can get out of a very rich, very populated caucus like on a college campus. it's designed to privilege the preferences of people in rural areas so they are not swamped by people in the cities. a touch of the electoral college f it comes down to it the way it did with that incredibly closest in history tie basically in 2016 that process by which they allocate the delegates would privilege those with rural support more than those who can pack college -- >> it's interesting to watch

them make number two choices in realtime. if you spent a lot of time talking with voters the way you have to talk about electorates in the aggregate these cross tabs, generation effects but people are strange and idiosyncratic and have all sorts of reasons and social. so interesting, why are you going to mayor pete? because he's my number two. that's just restating the question. that's not actually an explanation. >> she turned around. she was the steyer precinct captain. >> you see the lanes people have in their heads, the degree to which personality matters or personal conduct. as you've been noticing pete buttigieg has been in the state while a bunch of the other candidates were tethered to their desks in washington. >> one woman said warren is killing it. >> exactly. >> you know, i like that crowd. i'm going over there. that's what brings the energy in. even if you don't have the

biggest group if you're the loudest and seem like you're having a lot of fun they may be attracted to you because you seem like you're enjoying yourself. >> if everybody is voting on the basis of electability, therefore you will go -- >> we will go to chris jansing in iowa. what are you hearing? >> it's really fascinating because this is even though i'm on a college campus clinton community college, this is not a college crowd. it is an older crowd where, frankly, joe biden was expected to do well. but this is where we see the count right now. the viability here by the way, much lower than some of the other places you've been checking, four years ago they had 188 people caucusing. they thought they might get as many as 250 to 400 and have fewer, 174 which means the viability threshold is 26. this is where it stands right now, bernie and biden tied with

38 and buttigieg, 36, only two behind. this group with amy with 14, many of them had been telling me earlier that they would go over to pete buttigieg. so any of you that biden folks came over here and tried to convince you to come over to biden, right? >> i had i wit a little wrong. she wanted us to go to warren so pete wouldn't get the delegate. >> as many delegates as he's going to get when we do go over there. >> so basically this is about strategizing to see who can win this caucus. >> yes, it is. >> sorry. a lot of you told me you were going to buttigieg. has anybody -- and you were going if i recall to biden if amy didn't make it which she has not. have any of you changed your mind? will you take part in any of this horse trading. >> no. >> why not? >> because my mind was made up

before i walked in the door if amy was not viable i would go to pete. >> just a quick show of happens. how many are going to pete? so the majority of these amy klobuchar folks are going to peelt. now, i was looking for our warren folks who are over here. oh, there -- jim, where is jim west? he's got a green shirt on. here we go. let's see if we can get all the way over here. they're the ones that are doing some really serious -- can i go through here? thank you. jim west. can i grab you for a second? >> certainly. >> we were talking earlier. are you surprised that at this point elizabeth warren has not met the threshold? >> a little surprised at the ground game. she's had an intensive grassroots organization in eastern iowa. sorry. we are about five delegates short trying to pick those

people up from that way. >> also a situation where everyone thought you were going to break records here and instead you have fewer people who showed up to caucus. do you have any thoughts about what went on? you told me you've been doing it for decades. >> four years ago it was 188 people we had at 22 and we're about 14 people less. other than the aging population which clinton is an older community, it's aging, it's not young so that could be a reason too. but a lot of the candidates out there are talking about health care and i think that people should look at the candidates and what they're saying on health care too. >> real quickly. if you were a betting guy what are the chances you somehow convince five or significance other people. >> i'm working the room. come on. give me a chance. >> i got to tell you, it's fascinating, there have been people working this a long time. actually jim told me he heard a knock on the door and it was actually the organizer for

andrew yang who said you saw i have three elizabeth warren signs in my yard, right? and he said, yeah, but you never know and i might need you for a number two. so that's where we are right now. we're toward the end of the 0 minutes of this horse trading show we call it. >> chris, thank you so much. clinton, iowa, interesting rural part of the state, eastern iowa. >> you have to campaign to be people's number two. i think senator klobuchar was offended by the question but matters if you've said, okay, you got your heart set on somebody else, but can i be your number two? it matters sometimes. >> if you have the stomach and the sort of, you know, the lack of pride to be able to engage with that conversation ahead of time you can hopefully get yourself into a situation where if you are god forbid not viable on the first balloting your voters all know what to do next and they don't all then start searching their souls and making strategic decisions, they all know what -- >> they have power and don't

spread to the wind. they have a strategy. >> that one was clinton, iowa, bernie and biden tied at the top, pete buttigieg just behind and neither in the first balloting neither klobuchar or warren viable but they're working it. >> at least five of klobuchar's voters talking there with our chris about going to mayor pete. >> i was going to say real quickly the entrance poll, 58% of theme women are women. interesting the two women candidates are not going to each other. that you have most of the amy people talking about pete or talking about biden and you have the warren people talking about pete. but -- >> klobuchar and warren are so different. >> they are but there really doesn't appear to be, you know, all of us who still hope we'll see a woman president in our lifetime, it's fascinating to me they are dominating in terms of who is at the caulk, women over men but the women candidates thus far don't appear to be --

>> klobuchar and warren may be a ticket. cal perry in iowa city. what's up, cal? >> hey, so we're back in precinct 3. the university students. and there are 487 people here total which means in order to be viable you have to have 74. which brings me to my sporting event commentating, the andrew yang -- sorry, the pete buttigieg people are 15 people short. and so greta, greta, do you have a minute for msnbc? >> yeah. >> when you went over there to get the joe biden folks did you have an argument worked out? >> i mostly was saying that we needed to like come together because a lot of people that are kind of voting for the people over here are not as much of a bernie fan and saying, well, we're all coming together -- if we don't we'll all get not viable so we'll all have to go to bernie or somebody else along

bernie's lines. >> a good argument. did you try the yang people yet. >> only a few but i mostly stuck with amy and biden people just because it was smaller. and i talked to a couple of yang people and a couple yang people were interested and also really curious about how many people we had over here. >> how many do you have? >> i'm not for sure now. we were i think like 60-ish or something like that and brought over a couple more than that so the h you're closer to us maybe it is better if we all come together. >> do you think you'll hit 74? >> i hope so. i think so. >> the yang people are being poached. you can see over here and far corner, the bernie people who break into loud cheers and try to distract everybody else from poaching anybody else don't seem to be very aggressive about getting more folks but they have been very aggressive about keeping people from poaching other campaigns.

>> cal perry, thanks very much. one of a couple different precincts cal is monitoring in iowa city describing this is the sort of collegy one, precinct three. four is the more adults table and seeing different allegiances and different numbers. >> and it's so interesting to hear a young person make the argument against bernie sanders. we haven't seen that much and good on cal for bringing that to all of us but her argument was about -- just intuitiveness of voters is always awe inspiring. amy and biden are more like us, the pete voter than -- in we don't prevail among pete buttigieg voters, amy klobuchar voters and joe biden voters we'll be stuck with bernie. >> speaking for lots of people in eastern iowa. the internal calculations. voters aren't dumb. sometimes we underestimate how smart they are. they are making -- using shortcuts to look at other people saying where is the

ideological overlap? where can i hit this person to bring them in? that's encouraging to see about american democracy in general. i also think this, how andrew yang's people are popular. it's also something that comes into play if you can't get the candidate to the degree you may be connected to a candidate personally what's the issue that brings you over? we haven't heard a lot of that. we've had electability. >> all electability. >> health care. one climate change. >> i think there's something actually -- a little bit of a kirk lahr logic like everybody is now infected with pundit brain and having these discussions about viability and electability and, you know, democracy is who do you want to be the president of the united states? who do you trust? whose record and -- >> keep the circle going. they want the person that can beat donald trump. i think what you heard from the voters' mouths we don't want trump more than we want any of them. >> i feel like everyone is now doing this mental modeling

exercise and modeling some other electorate -- who will appeal to them more? i don't know that's a reliable -- i don't know that anyone has any reliable insight into that. that is what we're watching, a mass exercise. >> the out party, in 2004 the only reason john kerry won, what would my conservative brother-in-law in indianapolis vote for? when you're out and want to get rid of the person in office you have to think like people that aren't you. to a certain extent that young lady was mentioning you have to think about your own party facing this ideological split you have that challenge as well. >> claire is smiling. >> sounds very familiar. >> been there? >> i think i recognize this song. i think i've sung it before and i think what you have to realize in iowa particularly, that electorate they're thinking about, are their friends and neighbors that are not democratic activists that voted for barack obama --

they are desperate to get those voters back. so as they're thinking about who am i going to go for, they're really trying to put on those voters this selection and guess who they'll be most comfortable with? so it makes sense if you're from a state that isn't bright red or bright blue, missouri is more red now blue certainly iowa is in play because donald trump's numbers are way below what they were when they went for him in 2016. >> and clinton county is one of those places in iowa that was obama and trump. we'll take a quick break but be right back with more live coverage all over the state of iowa. this is live and these decisions are being made right now. we'll take you back inside when we come back. alexa, tell me about neptune's sorrow by olivia watson.

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we are going to head 0 our colleague, savannah sellers, live in clive, iowa, where things are beginning to break up. savannah. >> that's true. hey, nicolle, hey, rachel. exciting stuff has happened. our caucus chair ran a tight ship and it was very organized but we had klobuchar and buttigieg were the top here and

actually bernie sanders was not viable here and now anecdotally the crowd was older but there were quite a few first time voters. the last time i was talking to you we had one lone tulsi gabbard supporter who said he was not going to budge. he did end up budging and went for amy klobuchar. she had a good night in clive so i want to introduce you to fez. you are 18. right? and who did you caucus for? >> i decided to caucus for joe biden. >> how did you feel about how you did? >> i thought we would do a little better. i was surprised a lot of the moderate vote went to amy klobuchar but the fact that we were still viable was great. >> he had an interesting family story going on here. your mom was here. so now you're the 18-year-old. you caucused for biden. his mom caucused for yang. her plan b was to caucus for sanders. what did she do? >> she decided to go home. >> somebody who did not pick somebody else.

i'll introduce you to a couple other first time voters. hi, guys. they're all 17 years old so they all are able to participate because they will be 18 by the election. now we have one warren supporter, three pete buttigieg supporters. what do you think? >> i thought the whole thing was very cool to see. i felt a part of the community and organized chaos as to how i would describe it. it was cool to see. >> was it kind of fun being in here. >> so much. >> maybe feel like my voice actually mattered. made me excited about politics and cool to be physically part of something like this. >> yeah, absolutely. i love hearing that. were you surprised by what happened in here? >> totally. >> what was the most surprising thing? >> i think just the chaos it had. it was kind of like everywhere. but i vibed with it. >> what about the candidates not viable? >> i was surprised bernie wasn't viable. >> i was shocked. >> shocked klobuchar did as well

as she said. >> thanks for participating. so you guys again i told you there was excitement in the room it was fun in here. >> tick through the results. >> yeah, so klobuchar and buttigieg were at the top. now, i don't want to make any calls but that was followed by biden and warren and sanders probably the big headline was not viable. >> okay. so klobuchar and pete at the top. and then biden and warren also viable but behind them. all right. fascinating. >> so interesting. >> thank you very much. >> i love hearing from those young people, first-time caucusers who are like, this is amazing. >> the love of the chaos. look, i love republican campaigns do not feature a lot of conversations about young voters because we don't have any, i love the attraction to being in the room. you look at twitter and the role it plays in college life and to see them stand in a room on a

monday -- i don't know what day it is. to see them spend their monday night there is love it -- >> have to engage with people who have different ideas and we have to work together despite the fact we came here for different reasons and together we can come up with a better decision we each brought alone. >> i say this as someone who still teaches in a classroom. they don't reek of class government. it's encouraging to see that level of enthusiasm. >> the kid who sayed when mom went home, like i love fez. i want to see fez again. >> defying stereotypes. my mom was yang or bernie but i'm joe biden. >> the alex keaton of his family. >> let us go to steve kornacki. i have to ask a question here. i said at about 8:00, listen, we'll get results within

minutes. they've just closed the doors. we expect to get first results soon. we have heard anecdotal about potential results but i feel like we're not seeing the numbers i expected to have. >> i feel i should take responsibility. the reason you said that is because i was telling you before the show i was expecting that too. the reason i was expecting that is because at this point in 2008 if you remember the obama/hillary clinton/john edelman caucuses obama was being declared the winner. in 2016 you had more than half the vote in. 2000, it was a blow-out, al gore declaring victory so we had a rather quick pace to these things in the past and i think there was expectation, you've mentioned this the folks who go with a candidate on the first allocation if the candidate is viable, that's it. they're done. we expected that would speed the process up as well. we have absolutely -- i can show you to confirm, we have absolutely no results to show you right now. we have the an neck dolts. >> it's going to be a long

night. >> we reached out to the iowa democratic party to say what's up? we weren't able to get them to answer the phone. we're trying. if i can get an answer i'll let you know. >> steve, let me ask you about another piece new for this year. one thing that the iowa democratic party had made clear was that they were trying to streamline the reporting process from the precincts up to the state party by using an app and all the precinct chairs, i guess, precinct staffers were able to use a dedicated app to get the data to the state party quickly. there was reporting from bloomberg earlier that the app was proving to be a little bit more of a problem than a help. is that possibly what's going on here. >> hard for me to see that being the issue. i saw that reporting as well, the solution, the work-around, if you got your phone out and don't know how to use it like me the solution would be pick up the phone and call the state party. that's what they've done in the past and giving you examples, 2004, remember, that was john kerry, dick gephardt, howard

dean, john edelman, a lot of candidates bunched around. it was not a smooth and quick caucus night. at this point you were getting results back then as well. why we might not be getting results. in the absence of results, the other thing we continue to get are the entrance polls monitoring the story and can tell you a little bit of an update on the age front. saying that 17 to 29. we showed you in the entrance poll, biden is barely registering, sanders is running away with it up to 23%. that was ticked up five points as more data has come in. 6 aplus, that has continued to tick down. biden's strongest group getting about 34% in the entrance poll with it but that number was

about nearly 40% when we got the first wave that's gone down in every subsequent wave down to 28%, where it was in 2016 so we've been monitoring that in lieu of actual precinct result. >> we don't have overall turnout projects at this point. obviously the democratic party had said heading into the caucuses that they did expect potentially a record turnout. at least a big turnout. we don't have data, do we? >> no, i just gave you the numbers to keep in mind, in 2016, 171,000 democrats turned out for the caucuses. in 2008 that was the all-time record. the number was 239,000. so that's the question. if you're talking about a potentially having a record does it go north of 239,000 and, again, the baseline from last time, 171,000. >> steve, thank you very much. >> no one likes to wait on these nights. you have to wait. >> the fact is that i also feel like i created false

expectations because the way these things go every four years you do usually get results right away. it is wreerd we don't have -- it's at least the way it's going to happen this year, i shouldn't call it weird but it is unusual that we're this far into the night -- >> the second best thing is chris matthews. we have chris and chris has a lot of muscle memory. i had the sense of talking to david plouffe it was more wide open. do you think that has anything to do with the fact these numbers are coming in slowly. >> i hope not because i like to be right in my predictions. that's my hunch. i have a hunch it's going to be very predictable. i won't go over my numbers right now but i think it's going to be what we expected. it will be interesting so you haven't seen anything, folks, out there. the big excitement will build

from now till super tuesday a month from tonight when we have big casino, when california, you know, goes up and i see bernie out there as a real threat to win california. a real chance to win it. i see bernie winning perhaps a number of big states but mike bloomberg's money will come into play there and all leading toward that. normally i'd say based upon my podcast, for example, it's the first rule. win iowa because 9 out of 11 presidential candidates would won iowa won the nomination. the only people that didn't were the local guy tom harkin and the neighbor dick gephardt so it's been a good leading indicator. this time i think we have a lot more game ahead of us with bernie coming out really strong. i believe the first couple of contests staying strong for awhile, biden, i don't know if he'll make it. we'll see. used to say three tickets out of iowa. we'll see, there will be there our for. joy reid, my great colleague

here, what i like is that battle we saw with nita turner and jason, one hell of a fight. tonight is beautiful democracy. i think when the bernie people go against the accused oligarch we'll have a fight. >> particularly if biden underperforms. i've been to three states in the last month and a half and one interesting thing i found a lot more openness to bloomberg than i might have expected from african-americans, black women over 30 who discuss want to win the election and open to it. he is not involved in these first four races so we won't know his viability until we get to super tuesday. but i think what that means if biden doesn't do well in iowa, if he underperforms you might start to see people start to exit a little bit out of that camp to sort of run to where they think is a safe bet for a relatively moderate voter. one thing i think is interesting watching all of the great

coverage is klobuchar from a neighboring state. but her vote when she's not viable, it's interesting to me it's not biden who seems to be benefiting alt least in the caucuses we're covering but buttigieg. and so that is a little bit surprising to me he's actually the person from a state away but that he's picking up more of that second choice vote than biden is. i think for the biden camp i spoke to a couple people really good supporters, strong supporters of his earlier. they're counting on strong organization. that's their -- they're counting on not passion but organization and looks like buttigieg is benefiting from getting the benefit of what should have been biden organization. >> the person who wins, of course, and slingshot so goliath comes out, hard to beat and there's the slingshot. who will be the american people are rooting for come next week in new hampshire and laettner nevada and -- who is that candidate who becomes the alternative to bernie?

guys, back up in new york, i think that's what we're looking at. we will see a dynamic campaign looking forward. it just begins tonight. >> you know, i have a question to come back to you guys. joy, what do you make of the anecdotal evidence that electability, whatever that means to the individual caucusgoers is the answer that caucusgoer after caucusgoer gives to explain whatever choice they make whether it's biden or buttigieg or whoever they're picking, their rationale is almost universally electability, not a single issue. >> absolutely. i'll at the you, we did six hours of television for my weekend show this weekend and every single person in the audience was basically being, a, a pundit. thinking about not just who they're passionate about but who their neighbor would vote for and this race to me i think in general politics is 30% passion, 70%, you know, mechanics, getting people out to the polls.

can you love a candidate and not sit there and caucus. this time it's like 90% mechanics. people just want to know who can win. who can beat donald trump and i've seen just in the voters we talked to -- we went out in the audience, people had incredible anxiety about not wanting to get it wrong and thinking through and a lot of people we talked to didn't know who they would vote for. >> better not get it wrong. a person who pushes that candidate and that candidate gets blown away in november is responsible. >> they feel responsible. >> they ought to be. it's thought a game. this is fun tonight but in the end when you have to w story beat trump you better pick a winner or else people will remember it a long time. serious business getting rid of trump. >> so interesting. >> i think people feel that. >> thank you, joy and chris. everybody is nodding their heads. the same conversation we're having on the air and in break. >> there's a particularly interesting slice to with this

joe biden. there's been a million story, no one on twitter likes him but he has real support and he does. it's been the case his campaign performance by the people who see him in the room has not been great. a lot of people feel like -- >> mixed messages but there has been a gap between -- so it's an interesting question about how that cashes out in iowa. there's different ways that can go. people can say i know joe biden. i trust joe biden. i like joe biden's record. i am going with him. he can beat trump. buttigieg and klobuchar, if people feel like they were not wowed by him, particularly in a retail environment, if that ends up affecting it. >> when you look at previous times when you had to get rid of an incumbent, george bush in 2004. he took care of us after 9/11. well, let's get mitt romney. he seems to know business. people can't understand why they like trump.

what is the anti-trump if you can't figure it out? i can see some 20-year-old thinking, babies in cages, i got to stop it but who is the person to stop it. >> there's a lot of stuff that is brand-new. to have michael bloomberg in the race, i mean he's technically -- people could be caucuses for michael bloomberg if they wanted to in iowa. he's not in iowa tonight. neither are a happenedful of other keys who thought they wouldn't be competitive here. he's not competing there by spending a quarter billion dollars to get him into double digits nationwide. >> so you're right, he is already in the race. >> there's a lot that has never happened to people or happening right now. we will take a quick break h we come back in, we are into the second hour of these caucuses trying to work it out in terms of would will get delegates out of these venues, back with more reports on the ground when we come back. [ distant band playing ]

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you're looking at a live shot from clinton, iowa, where voters are in their caucus. they arrived there. their doors were shut just under two hours ago. we're monitoring a number of different caucus sites across

the state of iowa to see how things are progressing. it is unusual to be almost closing in on the 10:00 hour east coast time without statewide results but at this point we don't have any statewide results from the democratic party. we'll go to cedar falls, iowa, where trymaine lee is at a precinct site. we lost you before when you had a volter with you. tell us what's going on. we hope to avoid technical difficulties this time. >> we were so excited here we lost the audio. but we are back and right now they're in the middle of their -- it's kind of crazy and the kids are excited. in the middle of their second alignment and three viable group, sanders is viable with 115. we have warren with 76. pete buttigieg with 70. here's where it gets interesting. nonviable groups, yang, half gone to bernie and half to pete

buttigieg. klobuchar, half going to warren and half to pete. joe biden only had four caucuses. all said they're going to buttigieg because they appreciate he's a moderate like biden. while these kids, clearly there was an edge towards bernie sanders from the beginning and seeing a little bit of movement. the breakdown where we go from here, erin, the precinct chair, first of all, did you get what you expected in terms of turnout and the way things are shaping up. >> it still ended up being more than i expected. this is my first college caucus. i caucused when i was 17 but i was still in high school so wasn't in cedar falls, definitely new experience, more than we expected and ran into a few bumps and getting everybody checked in and making sure everyone was registered to vote but ended up getting it to work and everybody was able to come in and be in caucusing and with

regards to how it's turning out it's pretty much what i expected. i had a feeling that it was pretty much going to be bernie going first and then i knew -- i wasn't exactly sure where buttigieg and warren would turn out but not surprised they are pretty neck and neck in regards to the numbers, at least in the first alignment, and then a little bit below sanders. i will say i'm kind of surprised that we don't even have enough people that were in nonviable groups in the first alignment to create a new viable group. so they all have to either choose not to align in the second at all or go into either bernie, warren, or buttigieg's group. >> do you think the way the caucus has aligned itself, does it reflect in any way the presence the campaigns have had on campus? >> yeah, i'd say it's accurate. sanders i'd say by far has had the strongest presence. they've been tabling pretty much for four hours in the union almost every day, monday through friday for most of since school

started in the fall semester. and then again like warren, i would say would be second most and buttigieg has also had a pretty strong presence on campus in regards to our student organization and the campus organizer. >> what about biden? the biden caucusgoers. we had four of them. did that surprise you? >> it's not, honestly. i know very, very few people my age that biden was their first choice. so to me it's not a surprise. he hasn't really been present on campus at all. there is not a very strong kind of like student movement for him. so i'm not very shocked at all. >> erin, thank you very much. >> yes. >> we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> there we go. not too many surprises. back in 2016, bernie sanders won blackhawk county and much of cedar falls where we are today. from the very beginning, that bernie sanders camp, there was an audible energy. you could feel it in a different way from the other caucuses. and so it's still aligning itself and shaking out. but again, bernie sanders winning big so far. but it looks like pete buttigieg might actually get a nice bump

from all those other unviable groups. >> in cedar falls, blackhawk county. thanks again. you cannot extrapolate from any one, but watching the process there, that was a college precinct. sanders in first there, and then warren and then buttigieg. and even though klobuchar and yang and biden didn't het's interesting as the precinct chair pointed out, even v even if everybody who was in a nonviable group all decided to go with one other candidate, there wouldn't be enough of them to make anybody else viable. so it will be a question of how many delegates sander, warren and buttigieg end up sharing. >> and david plouffe is the best in the business at ground game and the obama campaign pioneered the ground game, building on some of the ken mehlman campaigns. but we talk about sanders support among young people as though it exists just in a sort of something you can't touch.

they do the work. to listen to her say they were in the union four hours a day monday through friday, they earned this vote. and there is a natural affinity, and these are sort of shared values, but they do the work and they should get credit for that in the results tonight. >> let's go to katy tur in des moines, who has been watching a very exciting situation unfold there in that caucus site. katy, what's up? >> it has been very exciting. so they've done the second alignment, and they've awarded -- not awarded, they've counted the number of voters that have gone over to the other campaigns, and we're just going to peek over this. sanders -- oh, we're not going peek over it. i'm not going to peek over it. long story short, biden got a few more voters. sanders got a few more voters. warren got a few more. she has the most right now. this young lady volunteered because she likes math, which is good. and they're figuring out how many delegates each candidate is going to get. it's a complicated long division

formula. my producer says formula, not long division. shows you how much i know about math. and they're going to award the delegates in just a couple of moments there is a gentleman up here, up these stairs because i haven't gotten enough exercise tonight that i do want to talk to. his name is mike. he is the precinct captain. you know what? mike detour. we'll talk to this lady. so warren, were you with her all along? >> pretty much so, yes. i was 80% most of the time, yes. >> how did you feel about the turnout? >> i was happy because i didn't think woe we would be leading the turnout. >> your expectations were lower? >> my expectations i think, because i've seen a lot of excitement with these campaigns, and i'm like well the ground game was always good and i believed that's what happened. >> so you thought with the expectations getting lowered and with all the news surrounding a potential sanders surge, you were sure. what did you think of joe biden's turnout tonight? >> fair. but i guess i thought he would be viable. i didn't doubt that at all.

but i didn't think he would be behind klobuchar. or pete perhaps. >> that is the sleeper kind of headline of this -- of this particular caucus is how well amy klobuchar ended up doing. remember, she was out of here for two weeks for that senate impeachment trial. she flew in one night when the trial ended a little bit early and held a pretty big rally in council bluffs, but people haven't gotten to see her face in the final stretch. her doing that well here i think could say something about the broader iowa electorate. mike is up there. he was the precinct captain. i with us going talk to him, but i'm trapped in this crowd, in these pews, these seating i should say. this row. i'm going to leave you with one thought before i go, guy, and that's about turnout. oh, wait, hold on. we're getting the delegate turnouts. let's listen to this.

>> pete buttigieg four, amy klobuchar, four, elizabeth warren, five and joe biden, three. those are the delegate counts out of 19 awarded from this precinct. >> so elizabeth warren gets five. she walks away with the most delegates. one last thought, guys. in terms of turnout, in 2016, they had around 767 people here. they were prepared for twice that many number, over a thousand they thought at least at this precinct. they had 849. so turnout was not quite as high as they expected here. and i'm not sure if that says -- what that says about maybe the evening, maybe people were busy or there were so many candidates they needed someone else to choose for them. but keep that in mind. turnout was not as high as expected, though it did exceed expectations, at least in this one precinct. >> katy tur for news des moines in what is still the middle of a very exciting night, katy. thank you very, very much. >> thank you, katy. >> we will keep an eye on

pivotal caucuses as we are continuing to monitor them. we'll keep an eye out for the first official results which we are hoping to get at some point during this lifetime from the iowa democratic party. brian williams will be joining our coverage again right after the break. stay with us. break. stay with us your mom just texted. she is on the way to our house. what? rachel maddow.

♪ the state house on a cold night in des moines. good evening again from our nbc election headquarters here in new york. brian williams joining rachel maddow for the next leg of our coverage. >> of indeterminate length, yes. >> 10:00 p.m. on the east coast. boy, she's got it right. 9:00 p.m. in iowa where the first contest of our 2020 race is officially under way. doors at caucus sites closed two hours ago. it's been a long wait for results. and yes, to be candid, we sure

thought we'd be talking about results by this hour. i just made the mistake of running into steve kornacki backstage. don't recommend it. but he is our first stop this hour. steve, what is going on? >> great question. you can see this is our results board. as you mentioned, we expected this thing would be full right now at this point in 2016 years ago, two-thirds of the state had reported. in the three previous caucuses before that, the winners had been declared. you were having victory speeches a this point. we have zero. in the last two minutes we heard from the iowa state democratic party. they tell us this. they say that they are doing, quote, quality control on the results that they've received. they say they are doing a, quote, out of an abundance of caution. we asked when do you think you will begin releasing results. they said there is no eta at this point. read into that what you will. again, we asked for more specifics than that. we don't know exactly what the

quality control. but as we said, this is the first time in the history of the iowa caucuses. they've been doing these for half a century they are tabulating three different numbers here. they're giving you the statewide first preference. people who they chose to support when they got there they're going give you that number. they're going to give you the reallocated preference. the folks who don't hit 15% and they realign with a different candidate. and the state total, the one they're used to calculating. but those are three different numbers. as we said, those are three numbers that could potentially tell different stories if the results are close enough. i certainly say we've been showing you the results from our exit poll. you can see there is potentially some bunching going on there, cleese at least in the entrance poll. again, putting these three numbers together for the first time, getting the results the statewide the party is from the precincts, i think they're trying to reconcile things. make sure all the t's are crossed and i's dotted. they're telling us abundance of

caution, no eta. yes, zero percent on the east coast. >> steve kornacki, when you look at the distance between what you were expecting procedurally in iowa and what you are hearing from the democratic party, it fair for me to ask you if you are worried, if you feel like this means that something is seriously wrong, or do you think this is just glitch territory? >> at this point, and again, it's very limited in what they're telling us at this point, but it does seem reasonable to me if you have a race that is potentially -- and again, we haven't seen the results. but just looking at the entrance poll, if you've got a race that is close, if you've got a couple of candidates within a few points of each other potentially, and you've got these three different numbers that you're tabulating, you've got the potential there for someone to be up in one, someone to be up in another, you have all these different tabulations taking place, you have precinct captains who have never done these tabulations before, relaying it to a state that has never received them before. i could say see if they're saying an abundance of caution, i could certainly see that being

reasonable there. at the start of the night, i said it might be pretty quick. i was wrong about that. but we're in uncharted territory. we've never done it before. the iowa democratic party has never done it before. nobody at the precinct level has ever done it before. we may be finding out in terms of doing it, it takes a little more time. >> which is why i always ask what could go wrong. >> yes. >> triple the work load to streamline and make transparent the process. >> they are trying to release numbers both in a way and of a type that have never released before, and that in some cases didn't exist before. so getting those numbers tabulated, getting them accurate, getting them collated so they represent the things they're supposed to represent, it does sound like a big job. they did think it was going to be an easier process. >> it's after 10:00 eastern time. >> yeah. let's go to chris jansing who is in clinton, iowa. we have been following the saga of this very interesting caucus where chris is at. we had been talking to you earlier, chris, about the

viability threshold. bernie and biden being at the top. pete buttigieg closely behind. what's happened now as they've continued their negotiations? >> it has been absolutely wild for the last 20 minutes. the three guys you mentioned, biden, bernie, buttigieg all made the threshold. who didn't, elizabeth warren. and i'm telling you, this room was packed half an hour ago, a visible gasp went through the crowd. she is so well-organized here. the idea that she didn't make 15% shocked people. and andrew yang. now here is two guys then who huddled. initially, 1015 minutes ago, i thought you had a very simple deal. you're going to combine forces. each get one delegate. what's going on now? because then the biden people started coming in. >> yeah, so the yang gang, andrew yang supporters made warren viable, made her group viable. so we're splitting delegates with the warren group. and we also sent some folks to

yang gang members to biden. and we're going get one of their delegates as well. >> so you had zero, and now how many do you have? >> we have two. >> and you have? >> one probably. >> and you guys just made a handshake deal that you're going split. you trust this guy? >> i do. this man invited me into his home. >> he knocked our door. i had five people coming in and he knocks on the door and comes in. >> and you knew it was a warren house? >> yeah, i saw the signs. but, you know, i like to talk to everybody. i'll talk to anybody. and, you know, very gracious and jim is, you know, a great american. >> like somebody said not too long ago around here, this is what democracy looks like. we make a deal, took a handshake. my delegate and his delegate know what the deal. we're getting one from us and getting one for warren and we're just moving on. like i said, there is no animosity or whatever. we just made a horse deal and good old-fashioned iowa. and everybody is happy.

>> this is what democracy looks like. probably the reason that the biden people were able to come over here and make a deal. and we don't have the final numbers yet. we should be getting them shortly is that the rep for amy klobuchar came to talk to me and said hey, you know we were talking to us and most of us said our second choice was buttigieg? biden convinced a few people to come over. and it's pretty evenly split. if that's how it ended up, i don't know. i haven't been over there, but at least the rep for amy klobuchar said it's not heavily in pete's favor. it's a split between biden and buttigieg, which may have given him the delegates to breathe a little bit and get involved in this. we should have in the next five or ten minutes, because the clock is rung out, the final numbers here. we could have five different candidates who are viable in the end. >> wow. chris jansing, thank you. it is a unique process, i'll give you that. and it's also nice, i'm going to say this, to see people getting along and being neighborly and civil and kind.

>> it's a complex process, and ultimately everybody is responsible for their own behavior, their own decision, their own reasoning in these things, but we are all of us, all of us who are voters are all participating in a group process that is designed to hopefully come up with the best decision for the country. in iowa, in those sort of horse trading conversations you see that process in microcosm, but people trying to come up with the best possible answer given the fact that other people in the room don't necessarily agree with them but also want what's best for the country. >> cal perry in iowa city. and cal, for first time viewer, i'm sure people are having a hard time wrapping their heads around. people are used to walking in and voting for someone, how you can expend blood, sweat and tears for an elizabeth warren and you fall short of viability and the yang folks come over and you say yeah, sure. >> it's like when i take my kids on safari and you have the wounded wildebeest that then get picked on. also in iowa, this is really exciting. just sort of this. i've never seen this.

take a look at what happened to the pete buttigieg folks. they left. pete buttigieg unviable in this gym. steve kornacki can be jealous about my inside this gym numbers. the two viable candidates out of the university of iowa field house only. sanders and warren, everybody else not viable. so what we have happening right now is we're trying to -- the andrew yang people are trying to poach people from around the gym to try to become viable again. they seem to be zeroing in on the pete buttigieg folks. you were buttigieg. >> yes, i was. >> and now? >> now i'm with yang, but there seems to be some discrepancies, because people were coming i think from bernie -- sorry. people were coming from bernie, but then we figured out that you can't change. >> right. >> since he is viable. so now it looks like people are kind of dispersing now. but i did switch from pete because there is nobody left at pete. and i would stand my ground, but i think it's better to get our numbers together and all come

together. >> what was the argument that got you to sort of -- >> come here? well, i came over to figure out why everyone was still together, because i realized i was one of the only ones left still lingering from pete, because a lot of people left. and a lot of people were just talking about his charismatic, like how charismatic he is. i've heard a about him. i've listened to several podcasts because try to stay informed. and i think people were coming from warren. people were coming from bernie and i don't necessarily if there was something punching me in the direction of yang, but i mean, i'm here now. >> general election comes. is yang a viable candidate against donald trump? how important is that to you? i know that was the talk of the gym. that was the talk of the presentations. >> and i think -- personally, i think he is a more viable candidate over say bernie just because he is more moderate than bernie is in my opinion. and i think that that is something that is really important to get people that maybe a republican that no longer maybe are super fond of trump. so maybe they see somebody like yang or see somebody like pete

and are drawn towards them rather than completely thinking oh, no, i can't switch completely left. so bernie or maybe more warren depending on your opinion of, like, scale i guess. >> thank you. greta, right? >> yes. >> thank you so much. one more look -- oh, they're gone. the joe biden folks are gone. there is two left. there were five and they were hanging tough and now they're gone. and the undisputed winner in this field house, the bernie folks who have been the most vocal sort of the entire night, guy. >> cal perry, thank you very much. fascinating. so, again, in that one precinct that cal is watching in iowa city, university of iowa, sanders and warren at this point the only two viable candidates, and they're fighting over everybody who is left. let's turn right back out and go out to dubuque, iowa where joshua burns is at kennedy elementary school. it looks like things are wrapping up there. >> rachel, brian, it is a wrap here. kind of eerie to see this gym so empty after all of the chaos and the twists and turns we saw

today. behind me the precinct chair is doing the last bit of paperwork. he was on hold with the democratic party for about 30 minutes. he got -- our representatives are all busy right now for about 30 or 40 minutes. but he got those numbers in. and let me tell you exactly, exactly. let me tell you tbiden, 53. warren, 35. sanders, 37. so buttigieg with the big win tonight. but it took a little while to get here. let me walk you through what happened. the first preference, warren and klobuchar did not reach viability. and that was a pretty big upset. everybody was very surprised that warren didn't get those numbers. and then in the second alignment, that changed. warren pulled two klobuchar supporters and the lone tom steyer. so four-way after realignment.

>> so there were three viable candidates in the first allocation, and then with trading among the nonviable candidates, warren was able to get to cross the viability threshold. so ultimately, there will be four different candidates getting delegates out of that caucus. >> exactly. exactly. and if we have a minute, actually we did meet a couple women who speak to the friendship element of that. can i bring you over here? do we have a second? >> please, sure. >> all right. this is sheri and julie. and you talk about how this is neighbors, really, doing this together. so julie, warren initially did not get viability, but you pulled your friend in here. tell me what happened? >> well we had 29 people in our preference group. we needed 30 to be viable. a steyer person came over to us. we figured that qualified us to earn one delegate, but we were hoping to get two, which we eventually did thanks to my dear friend sheri.

>> and you two have known each other for years? >> we were coprecinct captains for hillary clinton in 2016 at this very precinct. >> and you were for amy klobuchar. pretty different candidate than warren. what brought you over? . >> well, julie and i had talked ahead of time. i won't lie about that. but it's really important to me that it be a woman. it really is. and i wanted -- definitely wanted amy to be first, but i knew that i would go over to warren. a lot of my friends are in her camp. we were tired. we're only three people shy, and i tried to get them. we couldn't. and so i convinced some of them to go to warren with me. >> well, there you have it. this is how it works. people have conversations in coffee shops and bars and restaurants before all of this and sort of figure out their strategy, if they can. democracy in action. >> dasha burns in dubuque, iowa, that was great. and we'll take them. just bring them back with you. we'll use them as a focus group

for the rest of the caucus. >> we're going to meet up at a bar after this. >> bill me. bill me. i will pay. >> nice to see people getting along. >> yes. and the strategy is the point. you know what? there is no shame in the fact that you worked out what you were going to do if your plan a didn't effectuate. that's part of this process. that's part of what makes this different than a primary. >> all right, gang. >> well, you know, people have gone home rather than participate. obviously they said all the biden people have gone home or buttigieg had gone home. and the irony is that they changed the rule this year so that if your group was viable, you couldn't move from that group. >> so you're incentivized to scoot. >> and the reason it did that is because it would take less time. well, don't know about that. it seems like we're still here and we have nothing. so i'm not sure that worked. and it seems weird to me that this kind of horse trading is

going on, you know, i don't know. i guess i just don't get it. i don't get why we don't let everybody vote. everybody have a chance to vote. every vote count. so you don't have -- i saw that little girl on that mom's shoulder. i don't know if you noticed her. it's a grandmother and me. the little girl looked like how many how maybe we'ur she was worn out. she had been there for hours. it was just -- i don't know. i get the town hall thing. i get the democracy. >> and you talked to iowa voters about this. they don't want a primary. they want to keep doing hit the way. >> did they know how many people are getting excluded? a lot of people are getting excluded. >> that can't spend this time. >> it's a great point. important. >> i know i got somebody from the warren point reached out to me and said well, she was providing free child care. that's not the point. you ought to be able to vote absentee. you ought to be able to vote for two or three weeks. we ought to make it as easy as possible. this is what we yell at the republicans about, right, that they try to make it harder for us to vote. it seems like this is make it kind of hard. >> it's a different thing.

i hear you in terms of who gets in the room to ultimately make these decisions. but it's also sort of treasured tradition for a reason. and the people who do it are very protective of it. and i feel like coming in from outside to say no, you to do this like everybody else, your traditions don't work here anymore. it's a hard thing to insist on from outside. >> i admire it. i get that. i get your point. will you feel that way if we're at 1:00 a.m. and we still don't have results? >> i'll be here either way. >> we should remember that the iowa caucuses were not invented as a way of choosing a president of the united states. it was operating in iowa for iowa politics, statewide politics. and in 1972, george mcgovern saw something there and went in and tried to pick up a win. and so suddenly in '72. '68, iowa caucus, no one even knows it's happening. didn't exist. 1960, just wasn't there. and so it starts in '72, and it becomes a giant media event

because here we have the very first moment where people seem to be voting. and people have been using this phrase throughout the night, watching this. and i have to say watching it is really fun. and it's great to watch these people deal with each other the way they do, because they're dealing with disappointment instantaneously and having to move on the next thing in life after the disappointment. but we're not watching democracy in action. we're watching politics in action. >> uh-huh. . that is the way. >> yes. >> the united states senate works on its best days is the thing that i want to get done, i can't quite get across the finish line, but then claire comes over to me with her amendment which is sort of close but not quite. and michael joins it from the republican side and suddenly there's 60 votes. and when i say suddenly, that takes weeks. but it looks like that. and the conversations, when they are working in the congress are like the conversations we've seen with these iowa voters

talking to each other about changing their minds tonight. and so it is a kind of extraordinary thing to watch, but democracy is you can win the voting booth. it's a secret ballot. you vote for who you came to vote for. you go home and they tell you what happened. this is something else. >> and i think that the reason that i feel -- i feel sort of sympathy for this, i like this process is because i do feel like it's an antidote to the sort of clash of absolutes and the name-calling and the denunciation and the scorched earth stuff that you see at national politics level, particularly in the trump era. that doesn't work inside that room, that you can't go in there and be i'm right, you're all bad people because you don't already agree with me and it's over if i don't get what i want. it doesn't work in the room. and to see people have to operate through a different -- through a different sort of set of muscles, really, to have to use different political and social muscles in order to get their way, in order to do something for the country, it

feels good. >> it's the antithesis of what you just described. >> when i was national chairman, the convention, the 2008 convention charged the incoming chairman to look at the primary process for the 2012 cycle. and in looking at it, i stand squarely with claire on this. and had recommended to the rnc that we scrap the first four game plan, do a lottery system or come up with some other way that sort of connects the country to the primary process. and this to me is an example of why i think we put too much of the wrong emphasis on iowa. and it is not dispositive of where the votes are going to go. and i certainly don't believe that in this cycle. i don't think this is going to be dispositive of anything other than three or four people are going to come out here claiming they won, and we're going to be off to the race, and everything is going to really hinge to what

happens on super tuesday, and then you're going to have the big unknown in michael bloomberg in who's now playing heavy and hard in that space. >> and super tuesday is a month away. it's not like that is on the horizon. >> and you're assuming that we'll have results tonight. >> that's right. >> hey, chris matthews in des moines, chime in here. >> yeah, well, it's a hard group to argue. you both have good arguments. i understand. you know, when you really talk about the kind of people that watch us every night, people who are very interested, zealous people with strong views who stick to their candidate. like the people who walked out tonight said i don't want to vote second. i want to vote first for my guy or woman and i'm leaving. i think people have strong views there is an argument for that. there is also an argument -- when i wrote for the paper in san francisco, i wanted to have a rose bowl primary early january before these caucuses. a huge state, great diversity, great weather, a great place to go cover a campaign for a month or so. live out there for a month,

really get to know the people, get the people in a big state with a lot of sunshine and a lot of positive feeling, a lot of hispanic people, a lot of african american, and let them all pick a big winner and get started fast instead of screwing around with these little states for weeks at a time. i mean, three in a row, we don't get anything accomplished until we get to south carolina. 25% of the democratic voters are african american, and they're not really in the game. i mean, that's really awful. you talk about voter suppression, this it is. jason is right. it's voter suppression. you're saying black people vote last. it's wrong and we do it every year, and everybody says well, they like it in iowa. of course they like it in iowa. it's here. of course they like it. but the reason the reason they stick, not just because of new england tradition of standing up, and i love the idea, of standing up in a meeting publicly, but i think if they go too much to a primary here and it begins to look like every vote counts simply, you go in, you vote and leave, then they are afraid they won't get first anymore. and new hampshire is the first

primary. so how would they have the right to that? michael knows a lot about this on the republican side. we've got to get tom perez in here and beat him up a little bit and make him tell us why do you still start in iowa? because it's a strange decision. it just is. sorry i'm here. and it's cold. >> in talking to tom and talking to other democrats, there is some suspicion that between now and the 2024 cycle that the democrats are going to relook at this process. a number of the candidates have already expressed their frustration with this, particularly those who felt that all the enchiladas were placed on the table and you had to be there for iowa. well, my plan is different. i have a different strategy. to chris' point, if i'm trying to really focus on african american voters, i'm not going to do that in iowa. i'm going spend my time in south carolina. i'm going to spend a little bit of time in nevada. so for me, all this beggars a national primary. and to set this thing in a way

that we get the candidates to compete across the country. think about this. these candidates have spent the last year plus in one state. and that's not going to happen in the other 49. and yet they're going to make this dispositive for how they do in those other 49 states. it's just not fair. >> it's at least going to be first if not dispositive. it's momentum. what do you get out of iowa? you get momentum, right? you get momentum with donors, presumably momentum for the other early states. >> it's a different dynamic. you don't necessarily -- you win iowa, that doesn't mean much of anything. >> president santorum? i don't know what you're talking about. >> pat buchanan. >> all right, chris matthews, thank you. i hope you don't need an escort to your car. when we come back, we're going to show you some of these headquarters and some of these caucus locations, and we're going to go over to steve kornacki who hopes to have raw votes, hopes to have numbers on

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♪ we're back. and just to choose four of the caucus sites we've been following, it's all over but the sweeping and the cleanup. that end of tonight is done. the other side of the coin is the campaign headquarters. everyone migrated over to. all of them, some advanced person's blood sweat and tears to make sure the risers are there, the lights are there, the audio works, the flags are where they should be. nothing to say yet. they don't know what they'll be reacting to, and it's all because of steve kornacki. just kidding. steve kornacki is looking at this as a personal challenge. >> this is a caucus night like i've never experienced before, i can tell you at this point in 2016 we were looking at an iowa democratic caucus in which close to 90% of the votes had been tabulated. and again, well, this isn't the

screen i thought it was. but we're sitting at zero right now. what i have been accumulating, what i can continue to share with you, we've been getting the entrance poll result. the pool has been building for that. we just got another batch in. i know there has been talk about the entrance poll showing 58% female, 42% male caucus electorate. inside the groups, give you a sense of what is playing out there. i think i have to quick that twice. take a look. this is among women. 58% in the entrance poll of iowa caucus democratic participants. you see buttigieg leading in that. sanders, 20. warren, 18. biden back at 16. that is women. now take a look here. let's flip around. i've got to go to this one. men, 42% of the electorate. what are we seeing there in the entrance poll? this is where sanders leads, 26% for sanders here. buttigieg in second with 21. biden back at 16. warren at 14. so, again, this is we've had four -- i think five now, five updates to the entrance poll.

the goal with these things is to get a pool of about 2,000 respondents. they're close to 1700 right now. we've got pretty close. not completely, but pretty close to a completed entrance poll. this is the other thing we've been following. the age breakdown so important. with sanders doing so well among that youngest group, 17 to 20. now in the last update, 17 to 29 years old accounts for 24% in the entrance poll that number four years ago when sanders narrowly lost iowa was 18%. so it was 18% then. it's continued to go up with each update we've had in this entrance poll. it's at 24 right now. conversely, 65 plus, the oldest group, that's the group where sanders is barely registering and biden is doing very well, that group has dropped all night in the updates. that's down to 27%, 27 that is lower than where it was in 2016. so you're now starting to see

steadily in this entrance poll in an electorate that is a little younger than it was in 2016, and a decline there now of a point. we'll see if there is more updates in 65 plus. >> steve kornacki, thank you very much. claire mccaskill, to your point earlier, struck by those gender numbers, first of all, it's interesting that we've got a pretty heavily female skewed demographic in terms who have is turning out. 42% male. 58% female. but among female voters, we're looking at buttigieg doing better than anybody else. >> kind of a jump ball among female voters. they're all very similar. >> the section of the pie chart not filled in is everybody else. so we were looking to see how klobuchar, for example, would be doing. you can't break her out from this tally. but yeah. buttigieg first with female voters and then sanders. >> it's interesting to me. and it shows you that we have not yet figured out how to get

all the women to unite behind women candidates. and i'm not sure that's a bad thing because we don't want somebody to vote for a man just because they're a man. we shouldn't vote for a woman just because they're a woman. but there is this aspirational thing among women that is real. we want to see a woman this the oval office some day because we know how many great women are out there that could do a fantastic job. >> so is it a question of the right woman hasn't yet positioned herself to run in terms of how these women are looking at an elizabeth warren versus an amy klobuchar versus a kamala harris? >> maybe. what we've been seeing consistently, especially tonight, but this the lead-up to tonight, and it's no surprise is electability, electability, electability. that's the basis, right or wrong. that's the basis on which democrats say they are making their choice. women in as much cases and even more than men are telling pollsters about whether a woman can beat donald trump in 2020. so women have doubts on the

electability front about a female candidate. again, rightly or wrongly, whether or not that is deserved. but you're not seeing a sort of gender solidarity. >> right. >> women putting their hopes for a female glass ceiling breaking candidate ahead of their perceptions that a female candidate would be disadvantaged in the general. >> i think that's exactly right. i think that's exactly right. >> so you think in another world primary process where you didn't have a donald trump sitting on the other side waiting, but you had a jeb bush or marco rubio. >> it's a great question. >> or some other republican, would these women then look at and process the election, question of electability differently than they do today? >> right. i think it's a fascinating question, and i don't know how to answer it. do you end up with different perception of how gendler affect electabili will affect electability after he beat hillary clinton or if it

had been a different candidate who had beaten hillary clinton would it be differently? is it just because of his style that it's expected he'll be crude and transgressive and reductive about gender? i don't know. but it is clearly this is the army that the democrats are going to fight. >> right. >> is the trump era republican party. >> right. >> and there is a perception among democratic voters, women more so than men that he'll be -- it will be difficult for a female nominee to beat trump. and that perception is as much of a ceiling, a glass ceiling in democratic politics for women than anything that's going to rise from the election. >> the fear of reelecting trump for women is real. that's why you see such a huge gender gap in terms of his approval numbers, in terms of head to heads in potential presidential contests. women really have a visceral

fear of this guy in the white house for another four years. >> can i ask the senator, rachel and i are going to be driving this train tomorrow night at the same hour in prime time for the state of the union speech, and an issue -- >> i think i'm in the back seat. >> right into the tracks. wouldn't do it without you is censure, because it came up today. and i am curious. i know you don't report to a minority or a majority leader anymore, but what your friend chuck schumer, do you think these democrats advancing it are doing so with the blessing of chuck schumer? >> oh, i'm not sure about that. i do not believe that mitch mcconnell would ever allow any kind of a change in the governing resolution of the impeachment process to allow a censure vote within the context of the impeachment trial. whether or not down the road there would ever be a motion to censure this president, i can't speak to that. but i think what chuck schumer,

if i had to guess or die, i would guess that chuck schumer is trying very hard to keep the democratic caucus together on removal. and i'm not sure the censure gettiget getting floated out there necessarily helps that. >> just asking because the conversation has churned and continued while we've been covering this. and here we are with no results. if you're just joining us, 10:37 eastern time, we have no results. it's a first. this was also a first of its kind iowa caucus in terms of the raw data they were hoping and planning to pump out. we're efforting it, as we say in the business. we're trying. mike memoli standing by at biden headquarters. they'd love to see some results i'm assuming. mike, how are you doing? >> yeah, brian i've seen or texted with the biden campaign manager a few times tonight, and what does he keep saying to me? we don't know anything. so pretty much the boot here is as much as i expected on the set there in new york.

but let me tell you what we do know, and i think it's interesting as to what relates to the mood of the biden campaign over the past few weeks. increasingly anxious i have to say as the attacks from bernie sanders over social security. the question of the joni ernst factor, how the impeachment proceedings have been playing here in iowa has begun to weigh on them more and more. so what we do know is we've been seeing these pictures from precinct sites all over iowa tonight where joe biden in some of them has not been viable. why is that important? because the biden campaign has been saying for a long time that they believe they're one of the few campaigns that would be viable across the state. that yes, they may not be as strong in the more populated areas like des moines, cedar rapt, davenport, but they do think they would be able to run up the score in more rural areas. we've been covering just about every single biden event there is over the past few months here in iowa. a lot of the places we go, the best hotel option is more motel than hotel. the best dining option is probably a casey's general store. so these are rural areas. we should consider that tonight

as we see a lot of the places where the tv cameras are which aren't necessarily the places the biden campaign is. consider this, greg schultz tonight, campaign manager told david plouffe last week that he believed the biden campaign would be viable in 90% of all precincts. so if that number is much lower than 90%, if they're less than viable, less viable than that number gives, that's a real sign of concern for the biden campaign. >> all right. mike memoli at biden headquarters where they officially know nothing, ergo we know nothing ergo we'll take a quick break in our coverage. when we get raw numbers, you'll hear some sound from steve kornacki across the studio, and we'll hop right back on the air. ♪ limu emu & doug

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♪ 10:43 eastern time. >> we still don't have any results. >> we don't have any results from iowa. usually they're sweeping out the event headquarters and moving on. now they're sweeping out the caucus headquarters. can only sweep so many times, and the event headquarters are just in suspended animation. steve kornacki is -- he's writing down. you've got a lot on your pad. you've got a blank map of iowa at 10:43 eastern time. i've never seen anything like

it. >> neither have i. i'm trying to substitute for the blank screen. >> it's nervous energy. >> it is. there isn't a ton on here. we have been reaching out to the iowa democratic party, asking what i think everybody out there watching this is wondering and what everybody has been sort of waiting for, what is going on. we have mentioned in 2016 by this point basically 90% plus of the vote was in. and every other modern iowa democratic caucus the victory speeches had already been delivered. i can tell you the iowa democratic party now isn't saying anything. we have reached out to them. we have asked them are you having any particular issues? if you are having any particular issues, what are those issues? do you have an eta on when you will begin releasing results. no answer, no answer, no answer. we asked if they would put a communications representative on the air to explain what is going on. no answer to that either. as you can see, we've been showing scenes from the precinct caucus sites around the state. you now have multiple precinct caucus sites where you have cameras that are emptied out

right now. folks have left. there are tabulations that have clearly taken place in those precincts, and yet nothing has been reported out statewide at this point. so frankly, we are baffled as to what's going on. we are not getting any communication from the iowa democratic party. and as you say, this is highly unusual. >> further endearing iowa to the democratic party, david plouffe. >> well, i'm super partial to iowa, as you know. >> i know, i know. >> it's going the raise more questions for sure. it also for those that are doing that traditional overnight flight to new hampshire, it's going to be a super late flight for the candidates, because they got to hit the ground running tomorrow, those that aren't going back to washington. that's going to raise more questions. and the thing i'll be curious about, there is the process questions, is this the way we should nominate a president. but whoever comes in second here, particularly if it's super close, there is going to be conspiracy theories bouncing around. so i think that's going to be challenging as well. >> let's go cal perry right now on the ground who may have some information for us about what the delay looks like from iowa.

and we're all trying to figure out here in new york, cal, why we don't have any results and where the hang-up may be, whether it's the information getting from the precincts to the party, a tabulation issue with the party, or some other part of the process that's falling -- where things are falling apart. what can you tell from where you are, cal? >> in this precinct, i can only speak to this precinct, it's the tabulation. it's getting the numbers right. i'll let you dive in there. you can see they are retabulating the final count. and what they're going to do then is stick it into that overly complicated equation and come up with a number. i'm sorry, dan, i'm just going to pull the curtain back for our viewers and give you the raw numbers. the raw numbers were for sanders, 213, which translates we don't know yet. for warren it was 130 individuals which translates into three delegates. this gentleman here is now putting those numbers.

>> below .5. for whose who like long decimal numbers or who memorized pii to 50 places. >> they're plugging that into the equation and we're still waiting for the final delegate number for bernie sanders. it should be somewhere around 5 or 6. but that at least for this precinct this. >> 1.857142 -- >> okay, we're getting a long decimal now. roughly two delegates there for elizabeth warren. and you can see the crowd is sort of waiting with baited breath to find out what happened. but this is why at least for this precinct, we're seeing delayed numbers, because they're putting into it that very complicated equation, guys. >> we have been looking at the overall process thinking about all the ways that this has changed for 2020 compared with all previous caucuses. they were going release a different set of numbers, the viability structure sort of changed in terms of when people

could real locate themselves. there were changes. but it sounds like the tabulation delays that you're describing there aren't the product of the new process. they aren't the product of things being changed from the way they were in years past. it's just taking a long time. >> yeah. and for this precinct certainly, because it was just nbc news producer keeps having his nose ripped from him on live television. we had down to two candidates. only sanders and warren. and 213 to 130. it should be simple there was obviously the 10 that we started with tonight. there was only two that were viable. frankly, a lot of people just left. all the injured yang supporters went back to the dorm which made the math kind of easy. so it should be straight forward. we had a recount here. part of it was for accuracy. after that second viability test, there was a total recount. they wanted to make sure they got it right. and let's remind our viewers this is university students running a caucus for other university students. so they want to get it right,

and they're taking their time in doing. so precinct number 4, they did already tabulate and they sent those numbers in. so a lot of people have reported the numbers back to the party. this just seems to be one of the precincts that is still working it out. >> cal perry for us in iowa city, iowa. thank you so much. i do want to say while we have been talking, the iowa democratic -- sam, can you run straight under the set here? the iowa democratic party has put a statement out. thank you, my dear. this is from the iowa democratic party communications director mandy mcclure. ready? this is our first official explanation from the iowa democratic party. drum roll. the integrity of the results is paramount. we have experienced a delay in the results due to quality checks and the fact that the iowa democratic party is reporting out three data sets for the first time. what we know right now is that around 25% of precincts have reported, and early data indicates turnout is on pace for 2016. so if turnout is on pace for 2016, that means it is not

record turnout, because record turnout in iowa is your race. >> 2009. >> so they're saying this is more on pace with 2016, which was a lower number. they're saying they've got abou on pace with 2016, which was a lower number. they're say ig they've got about 25% of precincts reporting and the delay they are ascribing to quality checks. we don't know what that means. and the fact that they are doing this new ambitious reporting plan where they're not just putting out delegate allocations. they're putting out two different sets of what effectively count as popular vote numbers. the people's first preference, the re-allocated preference after people moved around. but regardless we've only got the explanation. we still don't have any digits. >> when my chevrolet was assembled in texas, they did quality checks and then they

checked the next one and the next one and the next one. i'm reminded of maytag in iowa. same thing. great dryers while they lasted, all of that. quality checks are one thing. this is people's preference for the next leader of the free world. >> i think we want the count to be accurate, so i appreciate that. but, listen, i have some experience in iowa. i actually was an employee of the iowa democratic party way back in the day, so we may be witnessing the last iowa caucuses. this was already under a threat, and i think this is just going to add to that. >> what do you make of the argument about the iowa democratic caucus regardless of process being an inappropriate start to a democratic party's primary because it's not representative of the party dem graph cliically and because it' exclusionary? >> i do think the addition of nevada and south carolina was helpful. i always looked at the first four, so you do get diversity, but very little diversity. the latino population is growing. obviously there's a lot of people that if it was a primary

would vote. they tried to address that with things like satellite. ultimately i don't think this is going to last. the one thing i will tell you, the organizing that happens, the retail skills that candidates -- and woiowans really put these folks through the pace. only people with a lot of money who do tarmac campaigning can -- >> tarmac campaigning? >> airport to airport, which is the other option. >> but that's what happens after this. let's not pretend that amy klobuchar and andrew yang and others are going to go door-knocking in yonkers. they're not. they are actually going to get in planes. they're going to land. they're going to do a rally, and they're going to go to california. then they're going from california to new mexico. after this process, this thing changes, and this is part of one of my particular peeves with it because you have this -- and i love the retail aspect of it, but the truth of the matter is that's not how we elect the president. it is very much by vast rallies,

one location, in, out, next state. and even in the primary process, that's part of what you're going to see unfold as people get ready to do 16 states in one night. i've got to have troops on the ground. i've got to be organized in 16 states for one night. so i don't have time to spend a year in one state. >> isn't there a case, though, for there being a value for having a group of voters having prolonged -- the opportunity for prolonged scrutiny of the field when the field is at its widest, right? rather than have that happen deep into the process, whether you've got everybody on the board and everybody trying, you've got this group of candidates that gets to see them and see them again and talk to them and ask questions about them and meet their organization. iowa does have a role that is different than everybody else's, specifically because it's so intensive. >> then translate beyond iowa, and that's not what you can do. the system isn't built to

translate that. >> there is a lottery where some state gets that but -- >> it's not always the same state. >> the state should resemble the united states of america. i mean iowa does not resemble the united states of america. you need a state that has everything. and these first two states don't. new hampshire and iowa don't. but new hampshire is much better at their quality check. their quality check is a thing called the ballot box, and you're going to see that work a lot better next week than what's happening in iowa. >> i'm the only one who feels the romance of the caucuses. >> oh, i feel it. i just think the questions are getting -- i will tell you that having run a presidential campaign that did both the retail and the national okay, you can do it. george w. bush did it. barack obama did it. donald trump lost iowa, but he was able to do it. but i think it's kind of a moot point because i think it's very unlikely that this is what we're going to see in four or eight years depending on what happens in this election. >> but to your point, you actually make an excellent point in that that's what tripped up hillary in '08.

she did not focus on that string of 11 caucuses that were almost like in the middle of the pack, and she was like, oh, no, i'm just going to work on the primaries, and obama laid the tracks, which created the kind of momentum, to your point, created the kind of momentum in the perception even that this is the strong front-runner. >> caucuses reward a different type of campaigning. they reward organizing, and organizing is a different type of campaigning. >> you've got to be -- whether you're republican or not, you've got to go to california because you got to build your numbers. >> yeah. >> if you're democrat, you got to go to mississippi. >> we all feel the romance of the caucuses. but since when is romance rational? >> and here's me trying to make a rational argument for it. you guys are like numbers. demographics. put that argument on my matrix. i'm like, no, but they're talking to each other. the neighbors are working it

out. >> if the numbers had come in when we expected, we probably wouldn't be having this discussion. that's the tragedy for iowa. >> you have won the romance argument. >> you did. >> for the first time in my freakin' life. thank you very much. >> i'm having a number of feelings now. >> i'll talk you out of them in a minute. >> so there is biden headquarters on the left. we're going to do some check-ins when we come back at the top of the hour here after what is our last break for this hour. this is extraordinary, and usually by the way, there's kind of a loose order of speeches. i think the minute we get raw numbers, they're all coming out, and in what we have in the new fangled dvr in the control room, we're going to have to tape simultaneous speeches and then replay the portions of all of them. anyway, we'll be back with all of that at the top of the hour. r at subaru, we're taking on distracted driving [ping]

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11:00 at night. rachel is usually home. i'm just coming on the hour normally. these are not normal times. that would be pete buttigieg's headquarters. vaughn hillyard is our correspondent there to answer the question. it's 11:00 eastern time, vaughn. where are the results from the iowa caucuses? >> reporter: and better yet, when are the planes taking off from des moines to head to new hampshire. they're going to get to new hampshire before sunrise goes up but you're not going to see

these candidates, including pete buttigieg, take this stage until these results come in. because thee results are particularly paramount for pete buttigieg. you have a candidate who has essentially hinged his candidacy on winning the midwest against donald trump next november. and that chance to do that is right here in this state. now, what we are looking at, all we can work off of right now are those entrance polling numbers. that is why the buttigieg campaign is looking at these numbers eagerly, waiting for these results because there's two numbers particularly. look among younger voters. yes, bernie sanders has about half the support among voters under the age of 44. but who is second? pete buttigieg. then when you look at older voters, voters over the age of 44, 25% of support goes to joe biden. but just one point behind, this is voters over the age of 44, is pete buttigieg with 24%. the other number that i want to point out there from those entrance polls from nbc right now is when you're looking at self-described independents who decided to come out and caucus, you'll recall here over the last three weeks as pete buttigieg

has held more than 50 events across iowa from the big cities through the rural communities, he has contended he could bring independents and republicans in november to help him beat donald trump here in iowa, a state that went for trump by ten percentage points just four years ago. so that's why when you look at those entrance polls, among independents, self-described independents, bernie sanders is at 33%. but four years ago, bernie sanders had 69%. but pete buttigieg is just barely behind bernie sanders, which suggests that there was an increase in more moderate independents that turned out into this race. whether it's enough in these areas is the question. i should note a buttigieg aide just told me that they were looking at particularly the suburbs. they said they were viable in more than 90% of suburbs, and when they were looking at these rural counties, they surpassed their expectation numbers in these areas. of course, this is premature. we need to wait for those results for the iowa democratic party, but at least from the buttigieg camp right now, they're looking at these entrance poll numbers and what

word they're getting back from these more than 1,700 precincts and their precinct captains and organizers in these areas and they're looking at these numbers very positively. we should know that's exactly what pete buttigieg needs to go make the case beyond iowa because when you're looking at his numbers in nevada and south carolina, he's still polling in single digits, and that is why the buttigieg campaign has long contended once voters believe that he has a chance to actually win the nomination, they'll turn to him. if he can pull off an iowa victory tonight, that will be put to the test. >> we're watching the risers fill in behind the podium where mayor buttigieg will eventually speak. i want to ask if it's clear from your reporting and the way you've watched this campaign operating whether they had an overt operation plan for caucus-goers realigning? we've seen a lot of live coverage of various caucuses tonight where there were surprises about which candidates were not viable, didn't hit the threshold in the first vote, and

then they had to re-allocate and decide who else they were going to go to. did the buttigieg campaign have that overtly planned out in terms of how their supporters would handle that either with him not being viable in the first count or him lobbying for these supporters of non-viable candidates in the second round? >> reporter: rachel, what this campaign did give pete buttigieg is an operation that could win this state. they have said there's 1,678 precincts around this state, and they have a precinct organizer, and every single one of them -- for instance, shelly thornton, i should note i met shelly thornton. she's an independent voter who had long voted republican. i met her while christmas shopping back before this last christmas here, and we stayed in touch. she told me at the time the only individual she would vote for over donald trump would be pete buttigieg. well, guess who that campaign enlisted to be a precinct captain in her town of jefferson, a place of 4,000 in green county, a place that went by 25 percentage points for

donald trump. they enlisted shelly thornt be, that independent. she said she is actively organizing her neighbors there. peg rainy was one of these individuals who said initially she was going to go for amy klobuchar in that very precinct. she said she was prepared to turn to buttigieg if klobuchar did not meet viable. so this campaign were able to put in 180 staffers on the ground here and essentially built up a robust operation. if a year ago anybody had said the mayor of south bend, indiana, would have you contend the best organization in the state, it would turn your head. it will be interesting to see once we get those round numbers and ultimately that second round if it will put buttigieg over the edge. >> we await comments from the mayor. vaughn, thank you so much. we know we'll be checking back in with you. in terms of when these candidates speak tonight, it is a good sign if you're waiting

for pete buttigieg to speak that they have filled in the risers behind him. >> late for those kids. >> late for those kids. we are still waiting for results. we did get a statement moments ago from the iowa democratic party saying the integrity of the results is paramount and the delay in the results, they say, is due to quality checks and the fact that they are newly reporting out three data sets for the first time. i should tell you a little behind the scenes peek here, the reason we got that statement from the communications director of the iowa democratic party is because maura barrett, who is at the amy klobuchar headquarters in des moines, iowa, tonight was able to score that for us, for which we are very much grateful. i want to bring more into the conversation now from klobuchar headquarters. maura, first of all, thank you. you gave us our first iowa democratic party information that we had to give out. and second of all, tell us what's going on at klobuchar headquarters there. >> reporter: hey, rachel. so here in downtown des moines, klobuchar supporters are filing

in. they've got their green t shirts on. they're very excited to see the senator speak. we haven't heard from a lot of the candidates here tonight because they don't have the results yet. in addition to that statement you gave a peek to, the iowa democrats are telling me there are 25% of precincts currently reported that they haven't been polled out yet because they're doing a quality control check. there's a new app they're using this year widely across the state, that many were able to send in results immediately. but that doesn't mean those results come immediately to the website. the iowa democrats have to comb through them and make sure that trends match from past year. they tell us it's on track to match what happened in 2016. we're not sure of any technological issues because earlier today we reported that some caucus chairs were having issues downloading these apps and some loginiss issues. i do think it's important to

note obviously these caucus chairs are volunteers. they're not paid by the iowa democrats. that easy are people that take the time on their monday night in early february to run these caucuses all on their own time. so they had the opportunity to be trained on this app, but this is something that's newer for a lot of people. so that might have been contributing to some of the hiccups here. but we don't have all the details yet, exactly why there's this long of a delay. chuck todd noted earlier today at this time in 2016, we had most of the precinct results here. so people are feeling very anxious. campaigns are feeling very anxious because they're not getting any guidance from the iowa dems as well. >> maura barrett as klobuchar headquarters, thank you. again, thank you for getting that statement from the iowa democratic party. i wonder if the app was a problem in this sense. if they thought that precinct chairs would be able to use the app to upload the information that would then seamlessly integrate with all of the other information from the state and

therefore they didn't have to put too many people working on that part of the process because the app would do it, when precinct chairs either elected not to use the app or had trouble with it and instead went back to the fallback position and called in the results like they are used to doing, they did not have the infrastructure in place to take as many calls and to get that information via phone the way they did in the past because they thought some of that work might have been done by the app. >> yeah, i think that's reasonable. i think that makes a lot of sense. and the question that i'm sitting here wondering, did they have training? did they actually, you know, get people used to manipulating and using just in a sort of trial sense? here, let's use some of the data from the 2016 election and put that in and see how you guys can deal with it. the one thing the democratic party -- no party wants to be caught on election night is a

process, organization, structure question. and right now the campaigns are really antsy, probably a number of managers are expressing severe language in conversations with the party chairman. >> david, do the campaigns know more than we do at this point? in 2008 with barack obama, did you know more before -- >> you're getting data in from your precinct captains and your local regional organizers, but it's not complete. so, yeah, i mean if you're a campaign manager or a senior staff every, like when are we going to new hampshire? when are we going back to washington? what kind of speech are we giving? they're all having to re-allocate their staff from iowa to different states. so you may say a matter of hours don't matter. it matters a great deal. >> within the campaigns right now, is there a winner who knows he or she -- >> i doubt they know they won. i think they know we're more viable in more places than we expected or not, right? they see -- they get data and

say, we expected three delegates out of here, we got four. that's great. we got two, that's not great. but, no, they're kind of in the dark too, which is crazy. maybe it's not quite the affordable care act website going down. >> that would never happen. >> unthinkable. >> i may have been around politics for too much of my life, but can i raise another question? if i'm one of these campaigns, i'm coming out. it has just occurred to me i can get drop-dead, lock cinch free television time, primetime in three time zones from, oh, i don't know cable networks with nothing else to talk about. i can come out and pull one of those, we don't yet know the results of this great state. but either way -- >> hold the floor for 20 minutes and -- >> come out. your advance people have carefully laid out beautifully lit stages for you. free shot at television tonight. >> well, if you think you might have a chance to win, you'd probably want to wait so you can say, we won. >> yeah.

>> but if the campaigns think this is going to be a three-way, you know, jumble at the top, yeah, somebody could come out and say, super close, we did well. >> and i'll be out later even. but here i am taking advantage of -- steve kornacki, again, all his fault. direct all of your calls to steve kornacki. i'm kidding. couldn't be a nicer guy. couldn't be someone silently suffering more tonight than steve kornacki. >> well, we thought we had prepared for every contingency. this is the one we didn't prepare for actually, so we're trying to piece it together with all of you. the one thing i would add quickly is you think about the value of winning the iowa caucuses. traditionally you were talking about perhaps the candidate coming down and addressing a television audience while there's still a lot of people watching. that is part of the value of iowa traditionally. we mentioned how early compared to now for instance barack obama's victory in 2008 was called. when barack obama came out and gave that speech after the iowa caucuses in 2008, he said, this

day would never come. that was hours ago at this point. we're at the point right now we don't know if we're going to start getting results in a few minutes f. there's a winner declared in this thing overnight, do you lose some of that value as well that comes with the prime time audience watching you declared the winner and getting to speak to the country. one other thing, what we have been told by the state party here -- again, you read that statement saying they've gotten 25% of these precincts in. one difference is in the past when they've gotten 25% of the precincts in, they've reported out the 25% of the precincts. at this point in 2015, 95% or so of the vote was already counted. we were getting incremental updates, zero, 5, 20, 30. at this point we're being told by this statement that there's a quarter of the voters, so a quarter of the precincts that are there, but they're not releasing any of it, so that part is unusual as well. the other thing they said, you mentioned this, the turnout from that statement saying it's level with 2015. here's turnout in the last four

iowa democrats. 2016 would put you at about 170,000. that's significant because the high watermark was 2008. the obama year we were talking about, that was at 240,000 in 2008. there was a lot of expectation when you look at the midterm turnout, when you look at the democratic participation in special elections for the last couple years, so many of those here. the high democratic voter interest level that we'd seen in so many elections since donald trump became president, i think there was an expectation coming in that the number would be closer to that 240, maybe even above it, so that 2016 was a bit of a surprise. this was john kerry, 2004. those other three give you a little perspective on that estimate. but that's an estimate from the state party. we have not seen the returns from across the state right now, so we will see what the numbers actually look like if and when we get them. >> steve, can i ask you a follow-up question to something you just raised, which is whether or not the delay in these results may ultimately

affect the impact of the results. i'm thinking about the 2012 republican iowa caucuses where the first winner was mitt romney and then three days later it was rick santorum, and then in the end ultimately it was ron paul who got the most delegates. i still don't know who won iowa in 2012. did that affect the trajectory of that race? >> it did. think about the specific order of what happened on the republican side in 2012. as you mentioned, on the night of the caucuses, romney, i think the total was eight votes, something like that. he was declared the winner. new hampshire came right after that. romney won new hampshire easily. they went down to south carolina. romney was looking at winning south carolina and putting that race away. and then what happened? in that final pre-south carolina debate, newt gingrich went after the moderator. he started taking off in the polls. then on the eve of the south carolina republican primary in 2012, they announced, oh, we actually had a tabulation error in iowa. the winner was not mitt romney. it was rick santorum. so romney, who was already

falling in the polls while gingrich was surging had to endure a story that, oh, by the way, he lost iowa. romney instead of opening two of the first three, lost two of the first three. he ended up surviving but that's what happened then. the example that comes to mind on the democratic side, the last time we saw this, we saw this in 2016 obviously where overnight 2 looked like hillary clinton was going to win and the next day she was declaired the winner. the only other example, back to 1988, at this point in 1988, there was no winner declared on the democratic side. it was a tight race between richard gephardt and paul simon. they went on the "today" show in the morning. they said it looks like gephardt is winning but we can't put the check mark there. what that allowed doing was gephardt to keep going, allowed simon to keep going, and it was a disorderly democratic race that went on for some time. part of the reason that race went on for some time in 1988 is

iowa usually winnows the field and clarifies the field didn't really perform that function because ultimately they said gephardt won, but it wasn't a win like we've been describing where you give that big speech and everybody puts the check mark next to your name. >> in this case we don't know what's going to happen tonight. we don't know what's going to happen in the next few minutes and we don't know how iowa is going to fit into the larger stack of these primaries. i will say i think we're expecting if not a muddle, at least a little bit of a black box in the democratic primary because even after the four early states, even if one candidate sweeps all of them, heading into super tuesday, here comes the money monster mike bloomberg with however many billions to spend, having not competed in the early four, who becomes a whole big new question mark in terms of how democratic voters are going to respond to him as of one month from tonight, super tuesday, with the early states behind them. >> david plouffe, look at what's

happening. amy klobuchar has chosen to take advantage of free television time and come out and say something. we've also been told multiple sources, there there's a conference call under way between the heads of all the respective campaigns and the democratic party in iowa. >> you probably heard we don't know the results. but i did not want to let another minute go by without thanking all of you. we know there's delays but we know one thing. we are punch ago bing above our. my heart is full tonight, one, because i have my great chair here. thank you, andy mcguire. two, because i have this fantastic staff that has been with us all the time. and, three, because my husband and daughter are here with me tonight. and i want to thank them.

i want to thank our tireless field organizers, the unstoppable volunteers who would never give up, and we are feeling so good tonight. and i cannot wait. somehow, some way, i'm going to get on a plane tonight to new hampshire. we are bringing this ticket to new hampshire. so even in a crowded field of candidates, even during the well earned impeachment hearing of donald j. trump, which kept me bolted to my senate desk for the last two weeks, we kept fighting. and you kept fighting for me. we have started in a blizzard, and a lot of people didn't predict i'd finish that speech. they were like, how could she do it? then in the summer, they kept saying is she going to make it

through the summer. and then debate after debate after debate, and all i can say is we are here and we strong. [ cheers and applause ] and with that same grit that got us through that blizzard, we are now ready to head to new hampshire. and my friends here in iowa, you know we have beaten the odds every step of the way. we have done it on the merits. we have done it with ideas, and we have done it with hard work because -- [ inaudible ]. >> thank you. we know in our hearts in a democracy is not about the biggest bank act. it is about the best idea and the person who can turn those ideas into action. we know that our party can't win big by trying to outdivide the

divider in chief. we know that we win by bringing people with us instead of shutting them out. donald trump's worst nightmare is that the people in the middle, the people who have had enough of the name-calling and the mudslinging have a candidate to vote for in november. donald trump's worst nightmare is that our fired up democrats will march to victory alongside a big coalition of independents and moderate republicans that see this election just as we do, that this election is, yes, an economic check, but it also is a patriotic check. it is a decency check. it is a simple idea. it's a simple idea that the heart of america is so much bigger than the heart of this guy in the white house. [ cheers and applause ]

our country cannot take another four years of donald trump h. our collective sense of decency can't take another four years. the rule of law can't withstand another four years of a president that thinks he's above it. our democracy cannot tolerate another four years of a president who wants to bulldoze right through it. the american dream cannot take another four years of a president who thinks he can choose who gets it. his playbook is not hard to understand. it is really three words -- divide and demoralize. well, i have a playbook that's three words -- unite and lead. [ cheers and applause ] that is how i have passed over 100 bills as the lead democrat in the united states senate in

the middle of that gridlock, and that is how i have won elections in the reddest of red congressional districts, in the bluest of blue congressional districts. the president, though, he might as well have a sign on his desk that says "the buck stops anywhere but here." look at what he has done. he blames everyone for our problems. he blames everyone, people that shouldn't be blamed. who does he blame? he blames immigrants, right? he blames barack obama. he blames the fed chair that he nominated, the energy secretary that he appointed, the generals that he commands, and, yes, the king of denmark. he even recently blamed justin trudeau for cutting him out of the canadian version of "home alone 2." who does that? who does that? so let me tell you what i will

do. when i am behind that desk, i will take responsibility instead of passing it on. i will reach across the aisle and work with americans in good faith inste faith. instead of picking fights, i'll bring this country together instead of pushing it apart. some of you may know that old story about franklin delano roosevelt. it was a story about how after he died, they put his body on a train, and it worked its way to washington, d.c. and there's a story of a reporter who came upon a man who was crying by the side of those tracks. and the man had his hat on his chest, and he was sobbing, and the reporter looked at him and said, sir, do you know president roosevelt? did you know him? and the man said, no. i didn't know president roosevelt, but he knew me. he knew me. and what we are missing so much

right now in our country is that sense of empathy. we are missing that care, aing, i promise you this. i will bring back that sacred trust between the american people and the president of the united states. [ cheers and applause ] if you are sick and tired of hearing how great the economy is when you don't feel it, when your paycheck is stretched to the breaking point month after month, i know you, and i will fight for you. if you are sick of choosing between paying for day care for your kids and long-term care for your parents, i know you, and i will fight for you. if you're sick of being torn between filling a refrigerator and filling a prescription, i know you, and i will fight for you.

and if you want a democratic nominee who can make our tent bigger and our coalition wider and our coattails longer -- >> amy, amy, amy, amy, amy. >> if you want that, i know you, and i will fight for you. and if you are sick and tired of the extremes in our politics and the noise and the nonsense, you have a home with me. so please join our campaign at amyklobuchar.com. join us because we are going to be here, it looks like, a really long time tonight, and you will have plenty of time to join us

at amyklobuchar.com. so let's stay up. let's stay in a good spirit because you all know what happened out there in those precincts. you know that we have been punching way beyond our weight. you know that despite some limited resources compared to some of those bigger bank accounts, we are way on the board. so let's stay up. let's stay up. let's stay happy, and let's head to new hampshire. thank you, iowa! [ cheers and applause ] >> amy klobuchar taking advantage of free media time during the lull as we wait for the democratic party in the state of iowa to report anything, even partial results. mike memoli over at biden headquarters where i imagine they're getting nervous too. mike? >> reporter: well, brian, amy

klobuchar is of a similar mind-set to joe biden right now. i'm told by biden campaign officials that he's now arrived here at drake university, his event site. i see the international association of firefighters leadership. they've been with him every step of the way there in the building. we expect him onstage, and here's what we know from our team of reporter who's have been talking to all of the campaigns. there's a call happening right now between campaign officials and the iowa democratic party. one campaign source says that the results app that they were using -- this was a new app they were supposed to be reporting each result from each precinct location around the state -- has not been working, and the phone backup system that they had in kpl place, according to one source s a disaster. it's clear there is going to be no, at least in the near future, to report any sort of results at all, which means they're going to try to come out as quickly as they can, give some sort of speech, spin what they know as best they can, and then got on to new hampshire. brian, you know who this is a

good night for? new hampshire secretary of state bill gardner. he oversees a primary election that relies on paper ballots that are reported by elected town clerks across the state. there have been questions about how this process here in iowa would unfold. this is clearly a setback for a number of changes that they tried to make to improve the process, backfiring clearly tonight, brian. >> somewhere somebody working at grubhub is saying why did i just get vote count from blackhawk, iowa? >> mike, appreciate it. i want to get somebody on the phone who may be able so give us sort of a ground truth explanation as to what is going on tonight in iowa. we're joined on the phone by sean sebastian, who is a caucus secretary in ames, iowa, in precinct 11. he was the caucus secretary, and sean, i really appreciate you making time to join us tonight. what can you tell us about what happened in terms of reporting results from your precinct? >> well, i think as you just mentioned, the app that we were

told to download just hasn't been working. so in the handbook that we were given, we were given a hotline to call to report the results. and i've just been on hold pretty much since 8:30 trying to report these results in. >> you've been on hold for two hours trying to report the results from your one precinct? >> yes. yep. so i was -- you know, they say they'll be with me in the order in which, you know, i got on hold. and there was a moment where they did connect for like one second about half an hour ago. and then i just wasn't responsive quick enough, and they hung up on me. so i'm back in line. >> shawn, in terms of your precinct, do you mind if i ask you to tell us what the results were in your precinct? >> yeah. so, you know, the caucus system is really unnecessarily complicated as you know and as you're dealing with right now.

so i can tell you on the first alignment, bernie sanders had 111 people. elizabeth warren had 82 people. and pete buttigieg had 47 people. and after all the second alignments and all the math, it ended up with sanders with two delegates, warren with two delegates, and buttigieg with two delegates. >> shawn sebastian. >> so even those standards had more than doubled the number of people after the first alignment than pete buttigieg, they ended up with the same number of delegates. >> shawn, thank you for helping us understand what happened tonight. we're going to go to biden headquarters where joe biden is starting his remarks. >> i want to thank you all, all our supporters and all those incredible people who hold public office in this state that endorsed us, and all the endorsers from all across the country, my colleagues in the senate, in the house, and from thepresidency, all the

people who came from all over to campaign here. [ cheers and applause ] and most of all, i want to thank the iowans that are here. [ cheers and applause ] well, the iowa democratic party is working to get this result -- get them straight, and i want to make sure they're very careful in their deliberations. and indications are it's going to be close. we're going to walk out of here with our share of delegates. we don't know exactly what it is yet, but we feel good about where we are. look, so it's on to new hampshire. [ cheers and applause ] nevada, south carolina, and well beyond. we're in this for the long haul. and i want us to remember not just tonight but throughout there campaign --

[ inaudible ]. >> thank you. this isn't just another election. this is well beyond our party. this is about ending an era of -- well, ending an era, god willing, of a president who -- look, this is bigger than any of us. it really is. we cannot, we cannot allow donald trump to be re-elected to the united states presidency again. i'm ready to give him a new nickname. the former president trump, chris. the former president trump. and, folks, as i said, it's bigger than any candidate, bigger than any party. and, folks, you know, i said from the outset, jill and i both said, we're in a battle for the soul of the nation, and that's not hyperbole. we really believe that, and i think it's been demonstrated every single hour he remains as president of the united states. folks, each and every one of us knows that deep in our bones

that everything this nation stands for is at stake, and i really mean it. four more years of donald trump will fundamentally alter the character of this nation, and character is on the ballot. that's what this is. everything that makes america america is at stake, and literally our democracy is at stake in my -- our view. i say our view because you've been doing this hard work as well as i have. and, folks, i love her too, man. i'll tell you what. the other reason we're running and we're going to make sure it happens is we've got to rebuild the backbone of this country, the working class, the middle class, they've been getting laid out badly by this administration. the middle class is being hurt very badly. but, look, you know what? we have to unify this country as well. everybody understands that, that

ceos and wall street bankers didn't build america. ordinary, hard working people led by unions built america. unions. and, folks, we need a president who is not only ready to fight but is also ready to heal this country. we can't hold grudges. we've got to be able to go out and unify the country because a president is supposed to heal as well as fight, and that's exactly what i plan on doing, we planning on doing, all of us in this hall plan on doing. ladies and gentlemen, you know, i'm going to go all over this country, every part of the democratic party and unite it, men, women, gay, straight, everyone, black, brown, a whole universe of people out there. because, folks, there's nothing, nothing we've ever failed at when we've tried to do it together. nothing america has ever, ever failed at. so, ladies and gentlemen, all my

friends, and by the way, i want to say a special thanks again to al and the firefighters. you've been incredible to us. you've been incredible to us. but, folks, everybody knows who donald trump is. well, it's fortunate they do know now. they didn't know last time, i don't think. but they know now. and, folks, we got to let him know who we are. we, we choose hope over fear. we choose science over fiction. unity over division. and compassion over cruelty. and maybe most.

>> we are keeping an eye on the pete buttigieg headquarters and the bernie sanders headquarters. we are expecting remarks from those candidates as well. i will just tell you, though, while we are awaiting the start of those other speeches -- and we will play elizabeth warren's remarks later, we did just get a new statement from the iowa democratic party on what is going on. quote, we found inconsistencies in the reporting of three sets of results. remember, the three sets of ruflts a results are the three different numbers they were planning on reporting tonight. the initial allocation, the re-allocation after people moved around when some people weren't viable, and the delegate

accounts. in addition to the tech systems being used to tabulate results, we are also using photos of results and a paper trail to validate all results match and ensure we have confidence and accuracy in the numbers we report. this is simply a reporting issue. the app did not go down, and this is not a hack or an intrusion. the underlying data and paper trail is sound and will simply take time to further report the results. to underscore that, we did just moments ago speak with a caucus secretary from one precinct in ames, iowa, who told us that he had been on the phone for two hours on hold on the phone for two hours and counting trying to report to the state party the results of just that one precinct. >> wow. >> yeah. a reporting issue, they say. the underlying data and paper trail is sound. they're just saying it's going to take a lot longer. >> this doesn't look good. >> yeah. >> ouch. >> again, this is a process problem that should have been

worked out months before. you're bringing in new technology. first off, you're changing the format, the way this is going to play out for the presidential candidates. so you've got to have those lined up. and the kinds are scandidates an to new hampshire. we'll declare victory in iowa later. >> the one set of results we know, which rachel managed to get from that guy who has been on the phone for three hours waiting to tell the people running this who still don't know it, he told us basically that bernie sanders had more than double the vote of pete buttigieg, and elizabeth warren was second in that standing. and all three of them ended up with two delegates. so that's the way it's supposed to work, and that is not --

>> there's no excuse for this under any scenario. if they did have record turnout, maybe you'd expect some challenges. '08 had 70,000 more people, and it worked flawlessly. i do think this is going to threaten the caucuses going forward. but what's fascinating tonight is whoever ends up winning this thing -- now, with social media, not like back in the '80s where you had television was the only way to reach people, but it's going to be mitigated a little bit. >> that's an important point. any momentum you want coming out of iowa is dissipated if the winner isn't determined until 6:00 tomorrow night. >> and can we touch the third rail of election integrity, which is the backdrop of every word we speak in this studio day and night? it's as if we're waiting for big numbers to come out of booten county and be surprised at that. it is merely what people think

in an event like this. that lingering doubt, that little wonder, the voice that never lived in your head until a couple years back. >> that's why the iowa democratic party is going out of their way. the app did not go down. this is not a hack or an intrusion. the underlying data and paper trail is sound. they are trying to foreclose suspicions of that type by saying, listen, we've got glitches in reporting this stuff. we tried a new fangled way of reporting the results. it didn't work. it overtaxed our backup. our backup is fundamentally sound. it's just going to take forever. i mean obviously there will be a price to pay for this within the process, but i mean from the candidates' perspectives, you know, you do what you got to do. amy klobuchar got out there first. biden and warren got out there very closely thereafter. we'll see the other candidates come out now. they'll all have to hedge in terms what they're going to say. tha they'll try to build momentum from something that is as yet undetermined.

>> i think the other point, you talked to the caucus secretary from ames. these people take their job very seriously. it's getting late. they're not going to wait on hold for another two hours, so you might not have complete results tonight. not to go down rabbit, but what if they actually report results and it's close? so it's not a good luck. >> steve kornacki, the iowa democratic party says, we found inconsistencies in the reporting of three sets of results. can you refresh us as to why they are reporting three sets of results or at least trying to? >> it has everything to do with how these caucuses ended four years ago. remember, we're talking about how basically it was all counted at this time four years ago. the difference, remember, was four state delegate equivalents between clinton and sanders. the closest iowa democratic caucuses in here. those college counties don't necessarily get the same bang for their buck, they believed

they won the raw vote, the initial preference in 2016, and they basically raised hell about it, and the dnc mandated after 2016 that the iowa democratic party in the name of transpar t transparency was to provide that initial preference, the raw vote, and figure out how to do it. so it's not necessarily something the iowa democratic party was looking to take upon itself, but the dnc after all those clinton/sanders politics of 2016, said, iowa, you've got to do this. >> in terms of the iowa democratic party's ambition versus their capability here, presumably both of you guys know this from different sides of . it -- bernie sanders is going to be speaking in a moment. >> from the party's perspective, you do a series of dry runs. you really stress realtime

election day scenarios, and you build into that testing, that stress testing, glitches. >> mm-hmm. >> if everything goes wrong, you have the right backup plan. >> you could hear the hold music as that guy was talking to rachel. your call is important to us. >> again, we've seen speeches tonight from amy klobuchar and joe biden. elizabeth warren spoke at the same time as joe biden. she started just moments after him. we will turn that around and get you those remarks shortly. but here's bernie sanders live from his campaign headquarters in iowa. >> bernie, bernie, bernie. >> let me begin by stating that i imagine, i have a strong feeling that at some point, the results will be announced. and when those results are announced, i have a good feeling

we're going to be doing very, very well here in iowa. [ cheers and applause ] and the message that iowa has sent to the nation, the message shared by the american people, is that we want a government that represents all of us, not just wealthy campaign contributors and the 1%. tonight in this enormously consequential 2020 election, the first state in the country has voted, and today, today marks the beginning of the end for

donald trump. [ cheers and applause ] the most dangerous president in modern american history. you know, no matter what our political views may be, the people of america understand we cannot continue to have a president who is a pathological liar, who is corrupt, who does not understand our constitution, and is trying to divide our people up based on the color of their skin, based on their religion, their sexual orientation, or where they were born. and all of that hatred, all of

that divisiveness is going to end when together we are in the white house. [ cheers and applause ] we are going to win this election because the people of the united states are sick and tired of a massive level of income and wealth inequality. they don't want tax breaks for billionaires and cuts to social security, medicare, and medicaid. the american people understand that if you work 40 hours a week, you should not live in poverty and that we've got to raise that minimum wage to at least 15 bucks an hour.

the american people understand that health care is a human right, not a privilege. and that our administration is going to take on the greed and corruption of the insurance companies and the pharmaceutical industry, and whether they like it or not, we will pass a medicare for all, single payer program. the american people understand that in the year 2020, all of our people regardless of income are entitled to get a higher educati education, and that is why together we will make public

colleges and universities tuition-free and why we will cancel all student debt in america. and we're going to do that through a modest tax on wall street speculation. 11 years ago, we bailed out the crooks on wall street. now it is their time to help the middle class. and unlike the president of the united states, the american people understand that climate change is not a hoax but is an existential threat to our country and the entire world.

they understand that the time is now for us to take on the fossil fuel industry, to transform our energy system away from fossil fuel to energy efficiency and sustainable energy. and as president of the united states, because this is a global issue, not just an american issue, we are going to speak to the people in china and russia and countries all over this world and say maybe, just maybe, instead of spending $1.8 trillion a year on weapons of destruction designed to kill each other, maybe we should pool our resources and fight our common enemy, which is climate change. [ cheers and applause ]

and the people of america know the time is long overdue for major reforms to a broken and racist criminal justice system. we're going to invest in our young peon jobs and education, not more jails and incarceration. and the american people also understand that our immigration system is broken, and together we will pass comprehensive immigration reform and a path toward citizenship. and the american people know that gun safety legislation will be written by the american people, not the nra. and the american people most certainly know that it is women

who must control their own bodies, not politicians. [ cheers and applause ] so, brothers and sisters, yes, together we will defeat donald trump, but we're going to do more than that. our message to wall street and the insurance companies and the fuel industry and the military industrial complex and the prison industrial complex -- our message to them is change is co coming. >> bernie, bernie, bernie, bernie.

>> together with the strongest grassroots movement this country has ever seen, where we have knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors here in iowa, we're doing it in new hampshire, so let me conclude by thanking our great staff, our volunteers here in iowa. and now it is on to new hampshire, nevada, south carolina, california, and onward to victory. thank you all very much. >> bernie sanders. >> senator sanders giving the

same kind of speech that they're all going to give tonight, which cannot be either a concession or a victory speech because there are no results. may i give us a little bit of news that arrived while the snofr was speaking? >> please. >> the general counsel, meaning the top lawyer for the biden for president campaign, has released a letter to the iowa democratic party. dear mr. price and mr. geiken, i write on behalf of the biden for president campaign regarding the considerable flaws in the iowa caucus reporting system. the app that was intended to relay caucus results to the parties. the party's backup telephonic reporting system likewise has failed. now we understand that caucus chairs are attempting to and in many cases failing to report results telephonically to the party. these acute failures are occurring statewide. we appreciate that you plan to brief the campaigns momentarily on these issues and we plan to participate. however, we believe that the

campaigns deserve full explanations and relevant information regarding the methods of quality control you are employing and an opportunity to respond before any official results are released. we look forward to hearing from you promptly. in the meantime, we're on to new hampshire on the road to the most important election of our lifetimes. again, that's the top lawyer for the biden campaign ripping the iowa democratic party and deal. it's statewide. it's acute failure, and you better talk to us before you say anything about what happened tonight. >> acute, the one-word kind and not two. >> no, it's not a cute failure. it's an acute failure. >> tonight is the night to say what i think a significant sentence in that letter is, is where he references, you're going to talk to us before you release anything. >> yeah. >> so now you're going to have a powwow with all the campaigns to go through this process, the results. we may not see or hear anything from iowa for a while.

and that's, again, for a candidate like biden, you know, where it was kind of questionable how he would do here, and for some of the other candidates, it breathes some life into their campaigns now. they can in one sense think, hey, we're starting this in new hampshire at this point. >> i think biden thought he was heading to a first or strong second place showing, he wouldn't want to be maligning the process. i think they probably don't like the numbers they're seeing to the extent they're getting precinct and county results. i think that's fairly illustrative of where they think this is going to land when the results do come in. >> we keep saying this is going to take the wind out of the sails for somebody -- isn't this possible this means somebody gets an iowa win in eight days or nine days? i mean you go on and lose new hampshire but after the fact you find out actually a week ago, you won iowa? >> but we've had that conversation already. for momentum and things to be energy, yeah, all of a sudden

they're going to drop in eight days, you know, maybe the day before new hampshire or afterwards. >> save it for a time when somebody needs a pick-me-up? >> well, the danger i see is that everyone basically gets a participant trophy, and we need to get about winnowing this field. listen, we'll know the results. i don't know when. at some point. there will be a lot of coverage of that and people will talk about it in new hampshire. but i think people are going to escape the most serious consequences to their candidacicandidac candidacies if they -- >> chris matthews is in des moines. if i were a headline writer, your call may be monitored for quality assurance would be right up there. >> mishegoss, it's a yiddish term for complete chaos and disaster. this is making mike bloomberg's night. this is what he does. this is how he's become a

zilli zilli zilli zillionaire. the guy in the white house is chuckling all night here, showing the democrats can't even get a three car funeral organized or whatever you want to call it. i would say to the people of iowa or the last person leaving des moines, please turn out the lights. this has not been a success. >> i fear daylight will obviate -- >> it argues the case. lawrence said go back to voting in machines and the more consistent the machinery in this country, the better. i really think the federal government has got no constitutional right to run elections, but we've got to find some statutory way of making our elections countable in realtime. i've got joy reid here. >> i often agree with you on these things when it comes to the history of way elections work. i think tonight was a great night for mike bloomberg. it was a great night for somebody who can argue competency at being able to run a big organization. but the democratic party has two jobs in november.

they have to not only try to carry this state because it is carriable. barack obama carried it. they also have to try to win a senate seat. joni ernst is up. she's been kind of mocking and trying to egg on joe biden in these caucuses, and this wasn't a good night for a party that needs to do those two jobs. and i'll say another thing that, you know, i mean it's not counterintuitive. iowa can only tell you a certain number of things. but one of the things it can tell you is kind of the general mood of a sort of moderate white american voter. and i want to bring -- i don't have the numbers in front of me, but steve kornacki earlier talked about the difference in the number of people, the number of humans who showed up in '08 versus '16 versus now. and if it's flat to '16, democrats should take note of that, right? there's not a surge of sort of middle of the road white voters eager and desperate to get rid of donald trump, at least not from what i'm seeing in terms of

the turnout here. democra democrats need to think that through, including bernie sanders voters, that he was going to bring this record turnout of new people and they were going to surge to get rid of donald trump. if you're not doing it in this state, democrats need to think about what does the coalition look like that gets rid of donald trump because the coalition to get rid of donald trump is more likely going to look like, you know, a state that's a lot more diverse like, you know, georgia or florida. i don't know. it's difficult to make the argument here that there is a surge of white voters who are eager to get rid of donald trump. >> all night long we've used the word viability, and i think we have to ask ourselves about the viability of the iowa caucuses, the decision this country has to make to find someone to challenge trump. but also the viability of the democratic party. i really think it's got a problem. going forward -- i saw the bernie surge there. that's about a third of the party, but it's not the party.

and if the party gets into a