nuanced. the conversations are going to be difficult. >> joe biden has carved a path from the atlantic to the mississippi river. if you were driving in a straight line, here we are under 10 seconds to the top of the 10:00 hour eastern time. and this marks the closing of the polls in the great state of utah. we'll go there first as luck would have it, and our call for utah is that the race there is too early to call. you see the top two guys. let's back up, huge victory for biden with the polls closing. virginia ditto at polls closing. colorado just here in the last few minutes, really, went to bernie sanders. tennessee, delayed because of the tornado from last night, went to biden. alabama and the deep south went to joe biden, where the wind

comes sweeping 'cross the plain went to joe biden. american samoa went as it does to the former mayor of new york, mike bloomberg. texas we have at too close to call, which is a different characterization. massachusetts, commonwealth of massachusetts is still too early to call. minnesota still too early to call, art art ditto, too early to call. and the great state of maine, too early to call. here's the delegates tonight. 157-92. the point steve kornacki correctly has been making all night. some version of that, if you had told us three weeks ago, two weeks ago, one week ago, we

wouldn't have believed you. we would have called authorities. and there's the delegates won so far this season. steve kornacki, i see you're looking at the great state of minnesota. >> minnesota is the story we've been telling all night. you just did. if you had polled minnesota two weeks ago, i'm not sure biden would be getting a single delegate out of the state. he is leading bernie sanders. basically all the population center in the state, 100% right here. this is a third of the vote on he the democratic side. joe biden is going to win this. they're starting to get into the iron rings here. duluth, biden leading by ten points. if you put together the twin cities and the iron range, you're putting yourself in good position. biden might not be getting a sing 8 delegate out of minnesota.

to to go clear across the country. look at this. more than a 5th of the vote is in in elizabeth warren's state. the margin is eight, the big city, joe biden leading there as well. the picture that is coming into focus nationally here, we haven't gotten to california yet. texas is close. biden is ahead in the returns in massachusetts. you said maine is too close to call. biden is within 9/10 of bernie sanders in maine, right now in vermont, this has been brutal news for bernie sanders tonight because biden is gaining delegates -- i should say colorado is the good news for sanders. the delegate picture here, we have california to come. joe biden in a position that was unimaginable this time last week. >> thank you, steve. chris hayes has joined our table and our conversation and one

wonders what you make of everything steve just said. >> you know, on the night of new hampshire we were talking about this. i said there were three things you had to compete. you had to have win states. you had to have a multi-racial coalition and recognition in the organization to play nationally. >> ding, ding, ding. >> the first contest one person had all three. bernie sanders. joe biden checked the box he hadn't checked. he multi racial coalition. he had the experience to play nationally -- >> i interrupt. award another state to joe biden. arc a where j arkansas where joe biden is tonight. when we look at the national map, the path he has carved from the atlantic ocean to the west is kind of visually striking, and what a big night in the american south. sorry. >> the other big question tonight is california. just to what james carville was

saying, the projections 48 hours ago is sanders would come out with a delegate lead tonight. i suspect if that were to happen, james carville would not be telling joe biden to get out of the race. we still don't know what the actual numbers are. california, let's remember, we remember this in 2018. the beginning of the night looked terrible for democrats. it got better the further west it went. by the time the votes were counted in california, there were eight seats swung in california. >> the last congressional seat didn't come in till after thanksgiving. it takes forever. >> it's clear sanders is going to under perform in california as well what he would have, say, 48 hours ago. that's clear. the question is by how much, what the early vote does and what the delegate map is. >> let's hear from the man himself, bernie sanders. [ cheers and applause ]

>> you know, it's a funny thing. 31 years ago today we won the mayoral race in burlington, vermont. [ cheers and applause ] and we won that race against all of the odds. everybody said it couldn't be done. [ cheers and applause ] and when we began this race for the presidency, everybody said it couldn't be done. [ cheers and applause ] but tonight, i tell you with absolute confidence, we are going to win the democratic nomination. [ cheers and applause ]

and we are going to defeat the most dangerous president in the history of this country. [ cheers and applause ] we are going to win -- [ chanting bernie ] we are going, we are going to defeat trump because we are putting together an unprecedented grassroots multi-generational, multi-racial movement. [ cheers and applause ] it is a movement which speaks to the working families of this country who are sick and tired of working longer hours for low

wages and seeing all new income and wealth going to the top 1%. [ cheers and applause ] it is a movement which says the united states will have health care for all as a human right. [ cheers and applause ] it is a movement that says we will bring major reforms in education, making sure that all of our kids can go to college without coming out in debt. [ cheers and applause ] now, what makes this movement unique is we are taking on the corporate establishment. [ cheers and applause ]

we are taking on the greed of wall street. [ cheers and applause ] the greed of the drug companies who charge us the highest prices in the world. [ cheers and applause ] the greed of the insurance companies. [ cheers and applause ] and given the existential crisis of climate change, we are saying to the fossil fuel industry -- [ cheers and applause ] -- we are saying to the fossil fuel industry their short-term profits are not more important than the future of our country and the world. [ cheers and applause ] but we are not only taking on the corporate establishment. we're taking on the political

establishment. [ cheers and applause ] but we're going to win because the people understand it is our campaign, our movement, which is best positioned to defeat trump. [ cheers and applause ] you cannot beat trump with the same old, same old kind of politics. [ cheers and applause ] what we need is a new politics that brings working class people into our political movement. [ cheers and applause ] which brings young people into our political movement. [ cheers and applause ]

and which in november will create the highest voter turnout in american political history. [ cheers and applause ] so, we're going to beat trump because this will become a contrast in ideas. one of us in this race led the opposition to the war in iraq. you're looking at him. [ cheers and applause ] another candidate voted for the war in iraq. [ booing ] one of us has spent his entire life fighting against cuts in social security, exploiting to expand social security. [ cheers and applause ] another candidate has been on the floor of the senate calling

for cuts to social security, medicare, medicaid and veterans programs. [ booing ] one of us led the opposition to disastrous trade agreements which cost us millions of good-paying jobs. [ cheers and applause ] and that's me. [ laughter ] and another candidate voted for disastrous trade agreements. [ booing ] one of us stood up for consumers and said we will not support a disastrous bankruptcy bill. and another candidate represented the credit card companies and voted for that disastrous bill. [ booing ] so here we are. we have two major goals in front

of us, and they are directly related. first, we must beat a president who apparently has never read the constitution of the united states. [ cheers and applause ] a president who thinks we should be an autocracy, not a democracy. [ booing ] >> second of all, we are developing a movement of black, white, latino, native american, asian american, gay and straight. [ cheers and applause ] of people who are making it clear every day they will not tolerate the grotesque level of income and wealth inequality we are experiencing. [ cheers and applause ] we will not give tax breaks to

billionaires when half a million americans sleep out on the streets. [ cheers and applause ] we will not allow 49% of all new income to go to the 1% when half of our people are living paycheck to paycheck. [ cheers and applause ] now, i don't know what's going to happen later tonight. we're doing well in texas right now. [ cheers and applause ] we won colorado. [ cheers and applause ] and i'm cautiously optimistic that later in the evening we can win the largest state in this country, the state of california. [ cheers and applause ] but no matter what happens, if this campaign -- and i don't know what will happen. but if it comes out to be a

campaign in which we have one candidate who is standing up for the working class and the middle class, we're going to win that election. [ cheers and applause ] a and if we have another candidate who has received contributions from at least 60 billionaires, we're going to win that election. [ booing ] and if there is another candidate in the race who is spending hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars, we're going to tell him in america, you cannot buy elections. [ cheers and applause ] so i am excited about where we are. we have come a long, long way. [ cheers and applause ]

and i want to once again, thank the great state of vermont and all the people in the state. [ applause ] not only for the victory you gave our movement tonight, but for the years and years of love and support you have given me and my family. [ cheers and applause ] so, vermont, vermont, from the bottom of our hearts, thank you all very much. let's go on to the white house. thank you! [ cheers and applause ] >> a spirited crowd in essex

junction for bernie sanders, the local guy. and his crowds are always spirited. tonight was no exception. when we went -- cutaway to join senator sanders on this night, chris hayes was in the middle of his second attempt to make one point. and because i try to remember such things, with apologies, please continue. >> there are two people that have checked the boxes necessary to be competitive. and the big question now is what essentially a two-person race looks like. there are two people who could conceivably be the nominee without some crazy set of events that are unforeseen, which can always happen, right? right now biden has the momentum because the sanders folks have failed to consolidate a coalition outside of 30%. more crucially, i think this is the thing that was worrying for the sanders campaign through their first three victories.

what's showing up tonight, new voters, low propensity voters, we can get chief meteorologist doug kammerer and turn them out. that's how we can win. it didn't show up in the data so far, in the places we've seen high spikes. not his favored territory. that has been the issue. the turnout does not appear. >> and -- >> sorry, go ahead. >> joe biden has just added to the pile way up north. >> minnesota. >> by winning the state of minnesota. >> so, this was -- >> talk about the klobuchar effect. >> exactly. amy klobuchar, beloved home state senator >> possible minute. >> reporter: and endorses vice-president biden, but with a lot of vote committed in minnesota and sanders won, it

was a caucus then. he was more than 20 points. it was 62-28 for sanders over clinton in 2016. he made an overture. >> what do you make of it? >> she helped him in the moment. first clyburn. then saturday night, mayor pete, then amy and then beto. the earned media was so val ulk to joe biden because he had no money. heed not been on tv. people don't realize how extraordinary tonight is. no field offices, no tv budget. >> no campaign. >> he literally spent $0 in minnesota. $0. obviously bloomberg thought he could contest against klobuchar.

he spent $11 million. sanders spent there, too. >> bloomberg, the dog that has not barked. >> hello, american samoa. >> i read a lot of pieces and talked to a lot of people who said, you don't understand how smart these guys are. >> you and me both. >> they have all the talent in the world. the greatest algorithms. this sounds like people i talked to on wall street when i talked to them in 2007, 2008. these are the smartest guys in the room. they have it figured out. i don't think meebl has a path. i don't think that's going to happen. maybe you're seeing the smartest guys don't have a path. >> not just bloomberg. one of the things we have to talk about is what does elizabeth warren do going forward. >> yep. >> she's going to have to be very strong to withstand the pressure she's going to get from the bernie campaign. bernie sanders' campaign is going to put tremendous pressure. the people in the progressive movement that believe very much

in the same things those two candidates share are going to really come after elizabeth to get out of the race. and if she stays in it, she will have a lot of yapping sthal go on, that she is ruining it for bernie. >> is there evidence she is spoiling the vote for bernie? >> i don't think it's in the data. you can make the argument her voters would go to biden. >> the number of delegates to clinch 9 nomination 50 plus one, the longer you have more candidates in the race, the lower the odds of an outright majority. a outright majority would really put to bed questions about that. >> let's listen to a fundamentally changed man, who won his first primary ever in south carolina and has gone and won a couple tonight.

>> hello, hello, hello, hello. it's a good night. it's a good night, and it seems to be getting even better. they don't call it super tuesday for nothing. by the way, this is my little sister valerie. and i'm jill's husband -- no, you switched on me. this is my wife. this is my sister. they switched on me. [ cheers and applause ] folks, it's still early, but things are looking awful, awful good. [ cheers and applause ] for those who have been knocked down, counted out, left behind, this is your campaign. [ cheers and applause ] just a few days ago, the press and the pundits declared the campaign dead.

[ booing ] and then came south carolina. they had something to say about it. [ cheers and applause ] and we're told, well, when you get to super tuesday it will be over. well, it may be over for the other guy. [ cheers and applause ] tell that to the folks in virginia. [ cheers and applause ] alabama [ cheers and applause ] tennessee, oklahoma, arkansas, minnesota! [ cheers and applause ] and maybe even massachusetts. it's too close to call. we're still waiting for texas and california, a few other small states to come in. but it's looking good. so, i'm here to report, we are very much alive. [ cheers and applause ] and make no mistake about it.

this campaign will send donald trump packing. [ cheers and applause ] this campaign is taking off. join us. to those folks, listen, go to joe biden.com. sign up, volunteer, contribute if you can. we need you, we want you and there's a place for you in this campaign. [ cheers and applause ] people were talking about a revolution. we started a movement. we turned out. the turned outs turned out for us. that can deliver us to a moment where we can do extraordinary, extraordinary things. look, our agenda is bold. it's progressive. it's a vision where health care is affordable and available to everybody in america. we bring drug prices down under control with no more surprise billing. access to rural areas and other

areas. i promise you, we'll find cures for cancer, alzheimer's and diabetes. [ cheers and applause ] standing up to and beating the nra and the gun manufacturers. [ cheers and applause ] and leading the world to take on the existential threat of climate change. [ cheers and applause ] i'm going to start by rejoining the outfit i put together, the paris climate accord, and we're going to move it a long way. a country where the quality of education won't have to depend on your zip code. triple funding for low income schools, raises for teachers, full time school for 3, 4, 5-year-olds. free community college providing credentials for every job in the

21st century. and significant -- >> as joe biden speaks, we've just changed utah's status and declared bernie sanders the winner of the utah primary. we will discuss, back into the event in los angeles. >> let's get something straight. wall street didn't build this country. you built this country. the middle class built this country. and unions built the middle class. in the neighborhood we come from -- [ booing ]

[ chanting let's go, joe ] >> look, the middle class is getting clobbered. the middle class is getting clobbered. too many people are in jail where i grew up in. people are getting hurt, they're badly hurt. guess what, they're the places we come from, many of you come from. they're the reason why i'm running. they're the reason why i'm a democrat in the first place. these are people that build our bridges,er tear our roads, look, who race into buildings to save other people. pickup our garbage, our streets, veterans, dreamers, single moms. by the way, every dreamer has hope because i'm coming and you're not going anywhere. [ cheers and applause ] we're going to provide a pathway

for 11 million citizens. if the other guy voted -- i shouldn't get into that, i don't want to get going. look, the iron workers, steel makers, boiler workers, these are the people that have been forgotten. i agree with you, man. look, the people trump forgot, the people iowa never forgot iowa. folks, that's why we need an economy that builds wealth. bring everybody along regard lgs of their race, ethnicity, gender, disability, every stripe. like we did in south carolina. like we did across america today. like we'll do all the way to the white house. look, that's why i was so proud yesterday being embraced by amy klobuchar. [ cheers and applause ] we won minnesota because of amy klobuchar.

[ applause ] and we're doing well in texas because of beto o'rourke. [ cheers and applause ] that's why, i was so proud, so incredibly proud to have mayor pete's endorsement as well. there is a man of character, intellect and courage. by the way, i was proud to be endorsed by jim clyburn. man, he is something else. look, our campaign reflects the diversity of this party and this nation and that's how it should be because we need to bring everybody along. we need a nominee who will beat donald trump. [ cheers and applause ] but also, also keep nancy pelosi the speaker of the house. win back the united states senate. if that's what you want, join us. you want a nominee who is a

democrat, a lifelong time, a proud democrat, obama/biden --. look, this stats with a revival of honor and decency and character. trump has fanned the flames of hate and sought to divide us. he's insulted, demonized -- the way he talks about people, he has not a single sense of empathy. he doesn't have any compassion, no regard for the values that made this country who we are. not the way you were raised by your moms and dads. he looks at honesty and decency and respect and he views it as a sign of weakness. he doesn't believe that we're the beacon to the world. he doesn't believe we're all part of something bigger than ourselves. that's why i've said from the moment i announced for this

candidacy. we're literally in a battle for the soul of america early. folks, winning means uniting america. not sowing seeds of division and hate. we have to beat donald trump, but we can't become like him. we can't have a never-ending war between the parties. we need a president who can fight, but make no mistake, i can fight. but look, we need it as badly as someone who can heal. look, just look at what we did when we passed obamacare, what president obama and i to save the automotive industry. that's not enough. it's just a start. we need a president who can heal the country as well. that is what i will do as your president. i promise you. [ applause ] it's about delivering real results for you, your family and

your community. it's not about jill, or me, it's about our families. to paraphrase the poet robert brown, our reach should exceed our grasp. my reach exceeds our grasp because there's no doubt in my mind we can grasp whatever we reach for. ladies and gentlemen, i quoted an english poet. let me quote a real poet now, an irish poet. [ laughter ] shamis haney who wrote a poem, and here's what he says, and i believe this to the bottom of my being. he said, history says, don't hope on this side of the grave. but then once in a lifetime the long forward tidal wave of justice rises up and hope and history rhyme. we can make hope and history rhyme because of what we've seen. there's nothing we can't do. this is about the future. it's not about the past.

it's about our children and grandchildren about leading in this cudjoe tri and leading the world once again. we have to remember who we are. this is the united states of america. it is time for america to get back up. and once again, fight for the proposition that we hold these truths to be self-evident that all men and women are created equal, endowed by the creator with certain inalienable rights. we saw it often in school but don't realize how profound it is. we never lived up to these words, but until this president we never walked away from it. ladies and gentlemen, i believe with every fiber of my being that's who we are. let's get back up. we are a decent brave, resilient people. we can believe again but we are better than this moment. we are better than this president. so get back up and take back this country, the united states

of america. there is not a single thing we can't do. god bless you and may god protect our troops. thank you, thank you -- thank you. >> so, a couple of things here coming out of a fully transformed, it is agreed, joe biden in los angeles tonight. in fairness, before we are even close to knowing the results from that state tonight, but in time to get on television in most of the country and we have claire and nicole standing by with us. and steve at the map. that was scary for a brief moment as two anti-dairy protesters stormed the stage. it should be noted, this would be early in a campaign to.

secret service, requested by the nominee. it is almost always universally approved. joe biden knows full well what it's like to live with them having had secret service protection eight years and relinquished it when he left as vice-president. but a scary moment and he's got a contingent of security around him. in this case, dr. jill biden, step forward. >> did the wax on, wax off move. i don't think those protest ers were there to cause physical harm, but the fact they were able to get on stage and it came to the candidate's wife to physically block one from getting to her husband. that's not the way these things should resolve. i know direct action protesters appear at any moment in any televised event when they're trying to nhk their case known. in that case that's an

organizational effort in terms of the campaign and logistics. they have to make sure the president isn't being protected by his wife. >> worth noting, but scary to watch. >> jill biden, she did the whole wax on, wax off thing. >> at that moment, this is probably only beginning to change for him. he had no money. the only way joe biden communicated with the electorate saturday night and tonight's seismic win, i agree with steve kornacki's assessment of shock. through the speech tonight, it seemed like more emotion. sounded like every word was crafted and thought through. they knew all they had was tonight's speech, seemed to be filled with more joe, more sort of veering off.

this is sort of a new joe biden the candidate. i don't think he's ever had this good of a stretch in his political career except perhaps in the general election as barack obama's running mate. this is someone who now feels by the end of the night, he may very well be carrying the mantle of front runner. don't know. may be after all the vote in california and texas is counted. you can see the psychology of the campaign changes, when the momentum moves, they change. joe biden is the candidate with the feels. >> claire? >> yeah, i actually think the thing that we'll watch after tonight -- i don't know how california is going to turnout, but clearly the story for tonight is much different than we thought it would have been just a week ago. >> i love that. >> it's the next debate, the next debate many because if elizabeth stays in, which i

assume she will, there will be three people on the debate stage if bloomberg drops out. a significant amount of chatter, i'm hearing it. i'm hearing chatter that bloomberg is going to drop out. so one on one or almost one on one, bernie and biden in a debate, how does biden hold up to that? how does he do -- he did great when he debated your candidate back in the day. i hate to bring that up. sarah palin. he did fine. >> i'm good. we can talk about it. when i say -- i love all these dramatic twists and turns. i think you're foreshadowing another dramatic twist and turn. to your point bernie sanders gave a much stronger critique of bernie sanders. if you put the sanders speech and the biden speech, sanders has moved on to the moment

you're talking about. biden, because he's waiting so long to be in this position to win a sweeping correspond knack ee-size board of states, he was giving a victory speech. what's happening, it's three hours earlier where he is, and elizabeth warren -- is always the best debateers. the best he can think about is second. >> i was thinking about that. if elizabeth warren stays in, particularly given what she's given as a rationale, she expects to win delegates here and there, she's staying in because who knows how this is going to be resolved. what like what kasich did. >> exactly. if she's in the next debate, joe biden, elizabeth warren, what we've seen with mike bloomberg on stage, she has become a limb

put mind. she destroyed him at these debates and in her public appearances and remarks since he's been on the stage. if he's gone, elizabeth warren is freed up to be a totally different factor there. sthes ideologically aligned bernie sanders. she is more temperately aligned with joe biden. she falls in between the sweet spot between the two of them. she does stay an x factor in terms of the narrative and what the campaign actually looks like in debate nights especially from here on outs. >> we have to fit in a quick break. when we come back, we're going to get an update from steve kornacki on our two enormous political prizes tonight. states with respective populations 39 and 40 million americans, including where joe biden is now.

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♪ ♪ our giant wall shows the status of this race tonight, this super tuesday 2020. there you can see the states awarded thus far, and there you

can see the states that have yet to be awarded, yet to be a projected winner two huge prizes there at the end of the list, texas and california. the race in texas too close to call the phones are open another quarter hour. steve kornacki is looking at where we are getting numbers from. hey, steve. >> why don't we set up the big picture in california. we have broadly every state except california. the second biggest state, you mentioned half the votes still to come. you see sanders leading by five. one of the big questions here is the same-day vote in texas. is is there going to be a biden surge in the same-day in texas that could tighten this ltd in the same day vote? is bloomberg going to remain above 15%, the delicate range?

that is suspense, what we've seen in other states. in tennessee with two third . when we had early votes, it exploded into a 17-point rout. 80% of the vote is in. when we had mostly the early vote in california, biden was up six. it's now tripled 18. that's the same day vote. the other thing that happened on the same day in north carolina, if you remember early in the night bloomberg was flirting with 20%. the same day as knocked him being low the threshold. he's sitting at 15%. when i say we have a pretty good picture, we don't know if sanders is going to win it. we don't know if biden is going to get close. we know enough that biden is going to have landslide

victories in the south. we know maine is close. biden has won colorado these are all the states that are up tonight. they represent a combined 929 delegates roughly speaking. and i want to be clear here, roughly speaking. it's our decision desk that does the exact allocations. if you look at the picture taking place besides their -- when all the delegates are added up according to my crude calculator, biden would have a lead roughly, roughly speaking here between 80 and 90 delegates. the way things are being look right now, we'll see if there are any major changes, but we have a lot of voting in a lot of these places. biden will likely be ahead somewhere, somewhere in that range going into california. and it sets up a question there. remember, a week ago, bernie sanders was talking about getting like 300 delegates out

of california, having all the other candidates miss the threshold. well, everything we have seen tonight, short of california, tells us there has been big movement to joe biden since south carolina, really in the last week. i think it's likely. i'm saying this based on everything we've seen tonight. i think it's likely biden gets over the threshold in california. the question becomes how close can biden make it with sanders in california and does warren make the threshold. biden can get out ahead tonight in delegates. >> there is also a reason president trump hands out color-coded early of his victory. keep looking at what has become the blue band. from the atlantic ocean on through the mississippi river on out, clear out to the edge of the rocky mountains. that means something and visually that tells a story, receive. >> this is after joe biden

sweeps the south. it held clear across the southeast. you look in oklahoma, not a large african-american population. conservative white population. that is one other story to focus on here, as -- rachel mentioned this earlier. oklahoma was a bernie sanders state. bernie won it by 10 points over hillary clinton. bernie sanders is losing it by double digits. going into the primary, rural states where bernie sanders did extremely well in 2016, was that a reflection of support for sanders or an opposition to hillary clinton? in a fact that the state of oklahoma, a sanders win, double digit loss, steve kornacki at the board. the next prize as we work our way next is the state of texas. we have seen some dramatic depictions of voting there.

we have our correspondents fanned out covering it all. garrett haake goes first from houston. hey, garrett. >> reporter: hey, brian. part of the reason you're not seeing a lot of numbers in from harris county, harris docounty, is a place are democrats are in control of the county elections. they have actually opened up the process. you can go to any polling place in the country here. and, still, at the polling place i was at today, there was an operating two-hour line from 8:00 a.m. till 6:00 p.m. when i had to leave to get over here. and i will just add anecdotally to what steve was talking about. among the dozens of voters i spoke to today at that polling place in kind of a whole-foods neighborhood, i didn't meet a single person who was voting for michael bloomberg today. i met several people who had voted for michael bloomberg in the early vote. but none of them today. i did meet a lot of people who told me their candidate, whether it was pete buttigieg or amy

klobuchar dropped out. and they were waiting to see if joe biden had the juice. so i think watching this big, giant gap on the map of harris county come in today will be a very interesting exercise for everybody in that studio and here tonight. >> garrett, thank you. let's jump to the west. katy tur in east l.a. where we quickly add democrats are also in control locally. and lines were long, and there were problems voting. katy? >> lines are even longer now than they were when i last saw you, brian. the polls close here in ten minutes. this line here is just the line to get a ballot. after that, they are going to go into this line. when it was over there by the basketball hoop right there, it was an hour-long wait to get into this room. there are only five voting stations in there. three of them are working. one has been out of commission for four days. the other one had a paper jam today.

so there is a lot of frustration that is building in this room. these people can expect to wait for hours even after the polls close. and this is not unique to east l.a. i have been getting text messages, e-mails, tweets from friends saying the lines everywhere in this straight are long. bernie sanders' team has filed a complaint asking for the polls to remain open past 8:00 tonight. they want to make sure that every single person is going to vote because they believe california is going to be crucial to them. i was just talking to a bernie sanders senior advisor who told me they feel pretty good. despite all the joe biden wins, they are not worried because they say they will win texas. they say they will win california. i don't know if that's going to be the case. i can tell you from talking to vote, all day here, i have been hearing a lot of bernie sanders. i have been hearing a lot of joe biden. but it's just going to -- we're going to have to wait and see. remember, the votes come in tonight but we are not going to know the full results for california for potentially a week because all those mail-in

ballots, and there are millions of them, have to be into the registrar's office by friday. >> native californian katy tur in east l.a. from there, we go to jolene kent who is standing by in irvine. >> hey, brian. what katy was saying just now is absolutely the same case here in orange county. 25% of voters have already cast their ballots when it comes to early voting and mailing in those votes. those results will come down around 8:05 pacific time. we're here the uc irvine where the line stretches all the way around the block. we have counted at least 200 students here. waiting patiently, even though it's dark, the desire to vote mere is very bright. i have spoken to several voters coming out. they have waited for two hours. over two hours. and what they're tell me mostly is they voted for senator bernie sanders. but we are also hearing from some voters who went for bloomberg and some last-minute biden switchovers. one woman telling me she was

supporting mayor pete buttigieg and at the last minute, after he dropped out, she shifted her support to biden. but what's really interesting here is there have also been some power issues with the scanning of the ballot here at uc irvine. we have been talking to the orange county registrar. they tell me they are sending reinforcement, deploying more machines because if you are in line right now, you will be able to vote as long as you get in line by 8:00. poll workers also telling them there are other locations if they don't want to wait all this time to vote. they can go elsewhere, nearby, to cast those ballots. but it's a very important area here in orange county. this may be a liberal mash in given that it is uc irvine but we are in a district representative katy porter, who was able to flip this district from red to blue, to the democrats. the real question here is will the rest of the county follow suit? these college students, anecdotally at least, telling me

they are for bernie sanders. >> jolene kent. uc irvine. irvine, california. thank you very much. we are going to go to northern california now. just ahead of the poll closing time in california where cal perry is in santa clara. cal, what are you seeing? >> yeah. so poly students get ready for your 30 to 45 seconds on voters choice act. this is about ten minutes into the wait here at santa clara county, which is one of 14 counties that has enacted the voters choice act two years ago. what does that mean? it means everybody who is a registered voter gets mailed a ballot. that ballot can be dropped off at any, at any of the polling locations in the country, which makes it very easy to vote. which is why the turnout here is so high. these folks are going to vote in person of the you have that option. you don't have to mail in your ballot. you don't have to drop it on the box either, which is happening outside. that's why it says vote here. your new voting experience. very similar to your last voting speerngs b experience but more people.

as you get into the room here, at about a 45-minute wait. you can do the written ballots. you can do the digital ballots but this is making it easy tore vote. it is going to raise turnout. it's going to make steve kornacki not so happy because he's in it for night of. but that's not the point. the point in these 14 counties is to get turnout up. >> cal perry in santa clara. fascinating and well told. i want to quickly bring into ts conversation someone who is covered politics for years. david ciders, thank you very much for being part of our coverage here tonight. we are watching these long lines. hearing about all the things that california's done to try to expand and smooth the voting process. as a longtime observer of politics in the state, how do you view how things are going tonight? >> i think there definitely have been some data problems that they have. but i think that the biggest thing i think people need to realize act california is that, you know, the late results that

we're going to get here are very much by design. it's a voter, you know, enfranchisement i guess, program, that california bae's running where, you know, you don't even need to -- you just need to postmark your ballot by today for it to be counted. so i think that's something that's been factored into the entire california voting experience. >> david, one of the things that we've heard, at least sort of anecdotally plus, is that there's some evidence that voters who have been sent ballots in the mail are not returning them in expected numbers. and that was not seen as a sign that voter turnout was going to be down in california but rather, people were holding on to ballots until the last minute while they watched the race change and while they made up their minds. does that seem right to you? >> yes, that's right. i think, you know, until about yesterday, we were at something around 20% democrat return rate, which is fairly low. this is a state where mail-in ballots are very high. so that was evidence that people were waiting to make a decision

late. and, frankly, you know, while bernie sanders is widely expected to win hereme and i wouldn't predict that biden will catch him. that might make the difference that helps the edge that sanders will ultimately accrue here. >> the 70 plus million dollars that michael bloomberg spent in california has obviously been evident in the form of mailers and ads. has it made a dent in terms of organizing? >> well, i think we'll see when the results come in. but i will say this. california is a state -- >> hey, david, forgive me. i have to interrupt because we have a major call on the east coast commonwealth of massachusetts. this is all the more shocking because its own senator is in the race. and its neighboring senator is in the race. joe biden, without spending a nickel on any media, without opening an office, a storefront, airing a single commercial, has

picked off the state of massachusetts. we are projecting that, when all the votes are counted, he will be the victor. forgive me. i return you to your previously-scheduled conversation. >> ask you to finish that thought in terms of bloomberg in california as we head toward the poll closing just a minute from now. >> sure. i'll just say california has seen this before. i remember bloomberg campaigning for republican, meg whitman, who obviously spent a lot of money trying to undo jerry brown in 2010. i'm not sure this is a state that would be receptive to that. california's been so upset about not playing a pivotal role, right? and now, they're on super tuesday in a big delegate haul. and almost because of the time zone difference, they're just been skewered here, right? so the narrative that they can -- they can change where they're going to vote but they can't change where the time zones are. >> thank you, sir. much appreciated. >> been doing our homework.

we're now within -- what -- coming up on 15 seconds until the top of the hour. 11:00 eastern time. important for us because the polls close, local time, in five seconds or thereabouts in california. >> our final poll closing of the night. >> yeah. this is it. and the 00s will be our signal. there it is. in the state of california, our -- our projection here, right now for this hour, is that this race is too early to call. sanders leads in california. too early to call. sanders leads. let's run through, for our audience joining us right now, the victories of both men have been awarded tonight. north carolina, at poll's close, virginia at polls close, the two quick early victories for joe biden. this, we just announced minutes ago, massachusetts has gone to

joe biden despite having a senator in this race and a neighboring senator in this race. minnesota went to joe biden. lot of credit being given to amy klobuchar for last night's endorsement. colorado went to bernie sanders tonight. tennessee, delayed because of a natural disaster there. last night's tornado. went to joe biden tonight. alabama in the deep south went to joe biden tonight. further to the west, oklahoma went to joe biden tonight. as did arkansas. awarded to joe biden. state of utah is in the sanders column. as is his home state of vermont. american samoa making headlines tonight for the former mayor of new york city, who goes home a victor in american samoa. now, to the remaining prizes. texas has gone from too early to

call in our estimation to now an important distinction too close to call. we are calling it under 50,000 between them right now. in maine, another notable distinction. a race that is too close to call. again, this pits biden with a neighboring new england senator. the delegates tonight. we have two less delegates. one awarded tonight thus far and delegates won an awarded thus far in the democratic race. joe biden at 277. bernie sanders, 236. we note that is absent california. absent texas. steve kornacki, who as i've been saying, was a way busier guy than any of us anticipated way early in this evening. >> we have arrived at california and if you notice the delegate

rate here. allocated delegates. it just got tighter. you see a 41-gale gadelegate ga. what just happened,as our decision desk projected, bernds bernie sanders is going to get at least 44 delegates out of california. 48, excuse me, 48 delegates. what that means there is a pool of 144 statewide delegates. the statewide popular vote is linked to 144 delegates so our decision desk is very confident that sanders is going to be well over the 15% threshold statewide. and that he will get a chunk of at least 48 -- that is one-third -- 48 of the 144 statewide delegates. now, what that also means as returns come in, and remember we said the question of this biden surge. if joe biden's surge extended to the golden state, then he will tap into that pool of 144 as

well. and he will get a buchlk nch of delegates as well if elizabeth warren, and the polls showed her very close to that number, if she can get to 15%, she would be tapping into it as well. so right now, the only projection in california is that sanders is going to get there. but again, what we have seen tonight in every other state is joe biden getting incredible momentum in the last few days. if that extends to california -- i was showing you this picture earlier -- if that extends to california, then that delegate tsunami that it looked like sanders was going to get just a couple days ago, doesn't happen. we are waiting for more results out of the of texas. i say this there is a lot of suspense in texas right now over who is going to win. but that question of delegates. i just want to show you very quickly. i have got a delegate calculator. at this number, if we just locked this in and this was texas, the net delegate gain for bernie sanders, if erp to win by something like this, it would be about 20. he would net 20 delegates.

now, if i just bounce biden to a one-point lead, now, biden nets three delegates. there is a big difference psychologically in terms of who wins or loses the state. meanwhile, as i say in much staller states than texas, joe biden's landslides are translating into 40, 30, 35 delegates. that is why joe biden's having such a good night here. >> steve kornacki, we have one thing in common. family ties to massachusetts. you must be surprised at tonight's result. >> well, i am and i'm not. i know. i guess i am and i'm surprised at what i'm surprised by. does that make sense? so listen. i thought that bernie sanders giving elizabeth warren a run for her money in massachusetts was more of a pride concern for elizabeth warren than something existentially different about her campaign. bernie sanders, in vermont, particularly western massachusetts, which is where i live, very much identifies as southern, southern vermont.

he did very well there in 2016. it's not that surprising that elizabeth warren wouldn't necessarily be running off with massachusetts. what is surprising is that she's not losing it just to sanders. she's losing it to biden. and to see those numbers for biden, fascinating. >> and by a lot. he won by 50,000 votes. >> only 55% in. i have been refreshing all the town-by-town results in massachusetts to find out where the vote is coming and what it looks like. i am a nerd. >> we love you but you're a nerd. >> exercises of constantly moving my mess out of the corner. >> listen. one of the things -- one of the things i am interested in now. we are looking at massachusetts results. as we said, 55% in. booip biden now projected to be the winner. then sanders. then warren. all in very good contention to

get delegates. and we are actually seeing numbers like this in states all over the country. in lots and lots and lots of states. both those won by biden and sanders. we are seeing warren, and in some cases bloomberg, also qualifying for delegates. so when we think about what happens next for mike bloomberg? and what happens next for elizabeth warn and what each of them is trying to achieve, the number that got delegates is going to factor into that. so it's still a live issue. that said, i mean, maine, texas, california. we don't have results in any of those yet, and i'm just constantly refreshing my tally to try to figure out where all those are going. >> i feel like someone will tell us but i'm glad you're doing that for all of us. i think what happens to mike bloomberg or what happens to elizabeth warren next are two different calculations. i think what happens to mike bloomberg next is really hard conversation from the man we saw with our own josh lederman early in the night.

longtime -- also on this campaign, also very talented. our friend tim o'brien is part of this effort. they are smart enough to know what they are looking at tonight and it's not about the money, actually. when you get to this point. because bloomberg, unless it's bernie and bernie doesn't want any of his money and doesn't even want bloomberg, you know, on the political arena. in that case, i guess bloomberg could go back to funding gun-control campaigns. right. but bloomberg will continue to spend. it's not about the money. it's about the pride. and, you know, not that we're clinical in our analysis. but there is something so bruising about coming up so short. and the polls, just two weeks ago, suggested a very different night was possible for mike bloomberg. but i would guess, and i have been part of losing campaigns. i've been part of winning campaigns. i've been part of florida 2000, wherever that falls. but, you know, it's a really painful conversation with a candidate when you have to talk

about shutting off the freeway. >> do you think the bloomberg campaign is at that point? >> i don't know for sure. i just know all three of those gentlemen. they can see what we can see and i really don't think it's about the money because bloomberg will keep writing checks to defeat donald trump. he got into this from a noble place. but i think that when the whole bet is around the collapse of joe biden, there are two ways of looking at that. one, it's a little cynical. two, it was an insurance policy for the democratic party. if biden hadn't rallied, if clyburn hadn't gotten behind him at exactly the right moment, if biden hadn't strengthened his debate performances, you know, we might be having a different conversation but i think the conversation bloomberg has happens sooner and probably a little more abrupt than whatever process elizabeth warren goes through. >> let's be clear about campaign finance laws here. bloomberg can't give his money to anybody that's running.

he can't hand over money to joe biden or bernie sanders. bloomberg gets to spend his money however emhe wants under e campaign finance laws of this country. if he wants to completely fund it and run ads against donald trump, he can do that whether bernie's the nominee or elizabeth or biden. so bernie can't control what bloomberg does with his money. and this idea that somehow -- first of all, we have to be careful how we talk about this because it is illegal for michael bloomberg to coordinate with either biden or bernie or anybody else in how he spends his money. but -- but i do think bloomberg, once i gets over the fact that this was an awful lot of money spent without a lot of delegates. i think he does, in his core, want more than anything to be sure that donald trump not president of the united states. >> elizabeth warren has a different calculation to make. and elizabeth warren was not

projecting that she was going to win -- althoushe said she was go try to collect as many delegates as possible. in maine, in minnesota, in colorado, in utah. and that's going to make a difference and that's part of her calculation. >> and that was john kasich's role. >> to be there at the end of the day. >> right. cruz and trump sort of were the sanders and, i feguess, biden o the 2016 process. and i guess if you want to be john kasich, that's a rationale. but i think that the outcome -- i mean, we'll know. we'll have more information as this sort of result pours in. but it will be interesting to see what, if any, pressure she faces to get behind sanders or not be that third wheel. >> it's going to have to be a pull and not a push.

not the way that you make this happen, right? >> usually, doesn't work. i mean, raent neason not to do s it usually doesn't work. that's all you have seen publicly. >> we have been able to resecure a guest we were talking to earlier tonight, who happens to have a specialty, which will be revealed as we introduce him. evan smith is ceo and co-founder of "the texas tribune." hey, everyon hey, efben, thanks for coming back on. everyone's got a favorite local indicator, favorite local source, favorite local data. what more can you fill in to the texas race as we have a been covering it here? >> so when i was with you earlier, brian, rachel, nicolle, i said to you that the early vote in harris county was pretty close between vice president biden and senator sanders. vice president was only ahead by a tiny bit. as the election-day vote has come in, what i suspected might

happen as happened. right now, on election day, the last numbers i saw. vice president biden is getting 48% of the vote in harris county. to senator sanders 28%. that is the difference between old news and the new reality of the last couple days. if that translates to dallas county. if that translates to the electoral -- election-day vote across the state, joe biden may very well win texas, which seemed unthinkable just a couple of days ago. and it is an indication, on a grand scale, of how this change in the election has taken place. >> don't move. let me introduce another component to this conversation. steve kornacki. as he's been talking, as evan's been talking, we have been looking at our graphic that combines the two and averages them correct? >> one thing to tell viewers here is there are different streams of day that are out

there. so he is talking about harris county, largest in the state. houston, 15% of the vote. we are still where he was originally. remember, he said the early vote had a fractional lead here. two-tenths of a point here for biden over sanders. what evan is saying is huge news. so he is giving a preview of coming attractions but if the same day vote in a county that accounts for 15% of the vote in texas is in the high 40s for biden as he is saying, that's going to substantially change these numbers and it's going to substantially change the statewide total, which is four points right now. where is the missing vote in texas right now? in our system, look at that. see that enormous circle right there? that's harris county. that's what evan's talking about. he is giving you numbers that aren't reflected in there yet. this giant circle is biden's same-day vote in the 40s. >> i knew evan would have a secret source. and, evan, turns out you do. but this is -- this also was matched in a lot of the exit

polling. when did you decide on your vote? that's when we knew early tonight we were going to have a tumultuous time of it. >> right. and, you know, what i said to you earlier was we don't know who is going to win the election. let me be very clear. we do not know. the vote is not all counted. in fact, we are seeing delays in the biggest counties reporting their results to the texas sec re tare of state's office. and many of us in the business of tracking this stuff are frustrated that it is taking so long to get this information to us. but what we are beginning to see as the election day vote comes in is that missing piece, brian. and if it holds, really interesting news. >> this is rachel in new york. let me ask you as well in terms of the long, long, long line we have seen and as far as our coronets are telling us, still in line now. there are still people voting.

does that reasonably account for some delays in the reporting? >> it might. when a number of us have complained out in the world that it's taking a long time for information come in. people have responded saying there's still people waiting in line to vote. but this is unusual the amount of time it's taking for us to get this information. it should not have to take this long. there is a new system of reporting data that the secretary of state's a office h put in. it's not getting great reviews at least in the early going today. this is not iowa. we are going to get this done in a reasonable amount of time. it's just taking longer. we would all like to know. texas is the big prize. >> evan, from the what to the why? i thought beto o'rourke's endorsement, of all the people who spoke, he was the one speaking in the state in which the event was held. and i thought that the connection that he and biden made over the gun issue, he brought that -- beto brought that up.

and then biden said, well, if i win and i do something act it, you're the one that's going to be doing it. and just that muscle memory of beto and the days, hours after the massacre in el paso. i wonder -- you know, elections are usually more emotional than logistical and scientific. what impact do you think that had? >> let's realize beto motivates both sides to turn out. there are people that commented on the endorsement last night on the republican side that said oh great, beto is going to be secretary of gun confiscation. some of the stuff he said made him a controversial figure within republican quarters here. but of course, you go back to the last senate race. when beto really captured lightning in a bottle. got more than 4 million votes. the most votes of any democrat to run statewide, in the history of texas. what we saw last night was some of that old beto in 2018 magic. on stage with the vice president of the then they went to

what-a-burger for god sakes. could you be more texas than? so i think there was an effect last night that was helpful but it's pretty late. you know, we'll never know. we can assume so. we think so. it was a nice moment. let's count votes. >> hey, evan, final question. is the salt lick just too long a drive for these candidates? what on god's name are they doing not going on out there? >> brian, all i will say is i heard you mention the salt lick in the earlier block. if you want to talk about controversial. you think gn confiscation in texas is controversial. identifying one best restaurant in texas is going to get you in a lot of trouble. >> as an easterner who loves austin and visiting austin, hook 'em horns, lbj library. i eat my weight in barbecue when

i am there. i didn't even name ford, dodge, and chevy, my favorite pickup. i know enough not to do that. >> you can test and learn here. okay? >> i will take you up on that, my friend. thank you for sharing your wisdom of all things texas. as i said, the salt lick is among the best barbecue places in the state of texas. robe robe robert gibbs, rescue me. if you had spent the last, let's call it, ten days on a family safari or a float trip or a barbecue tour of texas. >> or a barbecue tour of texas. and you had left your device behind. and i met you at the airport and i said, dude, i'm going to show you a map of the nation. the blue states have gone to joe biden. and you're going to say, surely, it's just a regional south thing. and i'll say don't call me shirley but look at the fact that he won massachusetts at all. what's your reaction going to be? >> i'd be absolutely stunned.

i mean, i don't -- i -- five days ago, six days ago, you know, joe biden was down to his last strike. and for him to be where he is tonight is something that no one could have -- have foreseen and predicted. nobody could have. it's -- it's going to be, it looks like, a remarkable night. if those numbers hold in texas again, if it's 20 on one side or eight delegates on another, a push in texas. on another, a push in texas. joe biden wakes up tomorrow. maybe the co-front-runner. you are in a much, much different race. >> talk about the uncomfortable conversation that has to be had, especially in nicolle's telling. inside, oh, i don't know, let's pick a campaign. the bloomberg everyday.

>> well, look. i -- i -- you guys talked about the fact that it has to be -- it can't be push. and i think it's been interesting. the biden people have been asked a lot in the last couple days do you have a message for mayor bloomberg? and to a person, they have not really answered that question and i think smartly so. my hunch is that mayor bloomberg and his very, very smart staff will look at this at the results of this and realize the path is just not there. i think many of those conversations probably will happen in the warren campaign, too. i -- i -- i don't think you can finish third in your home state and think, quite honestly, there is a viable path to the white house. there just really isn't. i would just say one other thing. i hope a conversation that happens in washington tomorrow. bernie sanders and joe biden need secret service protection. what happened tonight was nothing short of genuinely scary. it's happened to senator sanders and -- and others on this trail.

but those two candidates are the likely democratic nominee. they should have secret service protection in the next 24 to 48 hours. >> yeah. i'm certainly with you. it does -- it is a game changer for good and bad. it -- it -- it -- you know, adds another layer. >> it does. >> for everyone involved in the campaign. for press. for aides. but that was a genuinely scary moment. >> let me add one little piece of news to robert's point. warren has just sent out a message to supporters, warn sent out this message. as a grassroots supporter, you are at the heart of moment. 14 states voted today. results are still coming in. blah. blah. blah. here is the bottom line. there are six more primaries just one week away and we need your help to keep up the momentum. six more states are voting march

10th. can you chip in now as results are coming in so we can get to work earning more votes and more delegates? thanks for all you do, testimony warren. so warren, tonight, as of this hour, is fundraising and looking down the -- the primary calendar. we know that senator warren chose, tonight, to be in michigan, which votes next week. so she is projecting that she is staying. we'll see whether she does. >> a break in our coverage. when we come back, a closer look at just what is happening right now in california. california. turn on my tv and boom, it's got all my favorite shows right there. i wish my trading platform worked like that. well have you tried thinkorswim? this is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. okay, it's got screeners and watchlists. and you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks you're interested in. now this is what i'm talking about. yeah, it'll free up more time for your... uh, true crime shows? british baking competitions. hm. didn't peg you for a crumpet guy. focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim.

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we are back, and let's just take you through what we're waiting on. and the wait could be a bit. too close to call in texas. look at the delegates at stake. to the west, california, the biggest of them all. too early to call in california. some may note the first two men in that graphic. and in maine, too close to call, which is kind of a local shocker in itself. joe biden ahead by one percentage, difference of 1,400 votes with 65 in. 24 delegates at stake. by any measure, a stunning evening for the former vice

president. to that end, with us from philadelphia tonight is kate beddingfield, deputy campaign manager for joe biden. kate, we're starting interviews with people tonight in some form of "if i had told you two weeks ago what was going to happen tonight, the kind of blue path from the atlantic ocean facing to the west," i don't think anyone would have believed it. i owe you a very basic question, and that is what was it like to be at headquarters tonight? what's the reaction been like inside the campaign? >> it was -- you would not be surprised to learn it was an excellent night. we are excited. we are thrilled. it has been a tremendous amount of fun. i mean we have said from the outset of this campaign that joe biden is the candidate who can beat donald trump, and tonight we saw voters all across america say, we agree. he is the candidate who can beat donald trump. he is the person that we want to put up against trump that can restore the dignity and empathy

that is so sorely lacking with this president. so, you know, joe biden was the enthusiasm candidate tonight. we saw turnout in places like virginia and north carolina that was higher than turnout was in 2016. he won all over the country. he won african-american voters. he did incredibly well in the suburbs, which, you know, are the voters who made nancy pelosi the speaker of the house in 2018. so, you know, he showed tonight all over the country that he is the only person in that race who can put together the obama/biden coalition. >> you're young, but you're a veteran in politics. have you ever known a presidential campaign to be awarded victories in states where no office was opened, where the candidate couldn't stop by this cycle, where no media money was spent? >> it is the power of joe biden. it is the fact that people know him. they know his heart. they are craving the kind of leadership that joe biden brings to the table. they're looking around. they're looking for somebody who

they believe knows their lives and knows what they're worried about and knows their concerns. and they see that in joe biden. they desperately want that leadership back in the white house. so we saw tonight that, you know, all the money in the world can't buy you that connection with voters. it is an incredibly powerful thing, and joe biden is the only candidate in this race, i think, who has it. >> kate, it's nicolle wallace. i've got two strategery questions for you. congratulations on the night. >> thank you. >> it will not take look for any of us go to sleep. bernie sanders has already contrasted his message with joe biden's, and i'm sure that next time we all look at our phones and check donald trump's twitter feed, there will be something nasty coming from him. what is the campaign structure for both trying to defeat bernie sanders and become the nominee and holding off donald trump? his allies in the senate are going to continue the smears against hunter biden, and there was a sense -- i asked the

former vice president about this on my show. you know, why didn't you head up to capitol hill during impeachment and clear your family name, clear your son's name? how do you fight both fronts as a campaign? >> well, look, to your question about senator sanders, i think we saw resoundingly tonight across the country voters are looking for results, not revolution. they are looking for the kind of leadership that joe biden is offering. they're looking for progressive vision, achievable policies that are going to make a real difference in their lives. we saw across the country, we saw voters respond incredibly forcefully today to the vision and the message that joe biden's putting forward. so i think as they're looking at, you know, the contrast between sanders and biden, we saw tonight a tremendous amount of evidence -- >> you make that on guns, health care, keeping obamacare. >> that's absolutely right. you saw joe biden make that case across, you know, the last couple weeks of this campaign. he was particularly focused on the contrast on guns and the contrast on health care, and people responded to it. so i think that's, you know,

that's an incredibly important point. to your second part of your question, i think, you know, we saw -- we have seen donald trump take on joe biden throughout this entire campaign, right? he has spent millions upon millions of dollars trying to smear joe biden, trying to tear him down, trying to tear down his family because he doesn't want to have to face him, and it hasn't worked because the american people know him. they know who he is. they know his heart. they know his integrity. and so i think what happened tonight was democratic voters looked at who is the candidate who can stand up to donald trump. they looked around. they saw that trump has done everything in his power to try to smear biden, and they said, no. we reject that. we are not going to buy into trump's game here and they believe rightly that biden is the guy who can stand up to those smears because we know donald trump is going to do that to whoever the democratic nominee is. and in joe biden, you have a candidate who has length withstood it. >> kate, rachel here in new

york. i just want to ask a blunt question that i know you will not answer correctly but i'm going to try to read between the lines of your answer. >> okay. >> does your campaign want mike bloomberg and/or elizabeth warren to get out of the race, and are discussions under way with either of those campaigns about trying to bring them on to your candidate's side? >> look, that's their choice. only they can make that decision. any campaign makes their decision. we're not going to presume to tell them what they should do. i think if you look at the results tonight, there's one candidate in this race who can build the obama coalition. i think you saw joe biden brought them out in near record numbers in a lot of places across the country. you saw an incredible surge of support and voters turning out to vote for biden, again, at levels higher than they turned out in 2016 and that's important because we're going to need those voters if we're going to

beat trump in 2020, in the fall. they can make that decision, but i think it was a pretty resounding vote of confidence from voters across the country tonight that joe biden is the guy who can take on donald trump. >> kate, thank you very much for taking our questions. if it's like any other campaign i've been around, i am assuming beverages are going to be served at some point this evening. good luck with that. >> i'll never tell. i'll never tell. >> okay. thank you very much for taking our questions. >> thanks, kate. >> over to the big board. >> three states we still -- >> yeah. >> we have been keeping a close eye on texas, and this number right here, this is the difference. this is the lead bernie sanders has statewide in texas right now. if you remember when about 40% of the vote was counted, this number sat at 50,000. it's come down to 27,000 and change. a three-point difference between sanders and biden. we are still waiting for the same-day vote in harris county. biggest county in the state. houston and the suburbs. expectation that biden's going to do well there. so a chance to eat into that

further. i am monitoring that number very closely. we are seeing in get closer. in california, we just have our very initial returns although we just got some more as i say this. this is more than literally 60 seconds ago. what you're looking at in california, i want to be very clear because this is going to be a long process here. what we get first is the early, early vote. this is the earliest stuff that was sent in. this is the earliest stuff that was cast. then at some point later we're going to start getting the same day. then in a couple days, we're going to start getting the folks who mailed their ballots today, who mailed them yesterday, ballots that aren't even going to be received for another day or two. so a long, slow process here in california. but one thing i can show you in california. some results from our exit poll. remember, we talked all night. joe biden's strength with african-american voters. the other big question, bernie sanders, would he have that strength with hispanic voters that his campaign has been talking about? let's show you the latino vote in california, nearly 30% of the state. take a look at how that's voting. sanders is getting, according to the exit poll, what his campaign

was hoping for. 55. 21 among latino voters in california. a good sign for him. i just want to show you this. among democrats in california, favorable view of biden, 62-31. very favorable view of sanders. check this out. opinion among democrats in california. 32 favorable, 57 unfavorable. >> unfavorable, but in the results that we've gotten thus far in california, mike bloomberg polling in second after bernie sanders. >> saw his face on that graphic. >> there is a difference between the exit poll and what you're looking at here. >> yeah. >> this is a very unrepresentative slice. this is the early, early vote. the exit poll hopefully is getting a much more comprehensive -- so again if there was late movement in any of these numbers, you're not going to see it here. >> if you had to bet on when we will actually know who won california and what the delegate spread is, do you think that would happen within 24 hours or do he think we're looking at a days from now result? >> i believe we are looking --

to get a real delegate number, i think we're looking at days. i think we are looking at the possibility of having a broad, general sense of what's happening in california. again, the question going into the night, would biden clear the threshold? i think we'll have an answer to that. bloomberg, we're going to see. >> in terms of california versus texas, in terms of when you think we'll have some sort of, again, maybe not technically devdef fentive result, do you think that's also potentially going to be days? >> no, texas i think sooner. by the way, 27,000 when we started. now inside of 20,000. the gap between biden and sanders. like i said, in texas the range of possible outcomes now is very tight. if sanders wins this state, he's going to win it close. if biden wins this state, he's going to win it close. the difference when it comes to that delegate math, it's either sanders is going to net a few delegates out of the state, biden's going to net a few delegates. huge number of delegates,

there's not going to be a big swing between the two candidates no matter who wins right now. >> rachel maddow has been discussing the problem with two and three-hour lines to vote. i want to show you some live pictures that are going on right now in the state of california. >> this is live. >> this is east l.a. folks are, again, if we ever determine as a country that voting is critical to our democracy, i bet we'll get right on this. but these are people waiting to vote, and if we paid attention during katie's live report, that is the line under the basket to get your ballot, and then of the five voting machines at that precinct, two of them are busted. it's a mess. none of it should color the results we have seen thus far from across the country though california, of course, remains the big prize. on the west coast, where our own lawrence o'donnell is standing by, having interviewed joe biden

just yesterday. of course it was a light year ago in politics. and, lawrence, since you've been gone, biden won your home state of massachusetts by the way. time to come home. >> there's a few things to say about that, about the massachusetts win. one is by the way, the native son of massachusetts in that race is actually mike bloomberg, who was born in a suburb just north of boston and lived there until he went to college. so he had stakes in that state. but massachusetts voters, boston voters in particular are -- they're kind of professional voters. so after south carolina when they saw where this was and they saw where the momentum was going, they saw, you know, the buttigieg, the klobuchar endorsement, they knew what viability was going forward. they listened to david plouffe for days saying this is a two-person race, and they treated it like a two-person race today. they went out there, and they chose between biden and sanders,

and their senator comes in third in that. that doesn't really surprise me based on all of the dynamics of the last week, especially since south carolina. to california, and let's talk particularly about los angeles, where people are still standing in line. people are standing in line all over the state. my phone is filled with texts from people, friends of mine in those lines. i have one from a hollywood polling place where the casting director is in a conversation with the cinematographer and a math teacher and someone who is an undivided voter an hour ago in that line, and she says they just realized and only just realized that they'd been in the line for two hours because it's been so much fun and everybody has been -- you know, it's an 80-degree day, so it's a warm night here. i've got one from a very affluent community in the pacific palisades, a director who has been in line for two hours. he's not complaining. they're all kind of excited about this. and the infrastructure for voting in los angeles is a difficult one to maintain

because in the last mayoral election -- this is the election for the mayor of los angeles -- the voter turnout was 20%. so to build an infrastructure in los angeles that is capable of handling this giant surge turnout that they're getting tonight is impossible. and so these people are not accustomed to standing in lines here. it doesn't usually happen. they're not complaining about it, and they are all -- this turnout, i think we're seeing tonight from massachusetts to california is not the bernie turnout. it's not the joe turnout. it is the trump turnout. this is a turnout driven by a nationwide fear of donald trump remaining in office after the next election. these people are afraid of another four years of donald trump. they are afraid of what donald trump has done. that's who these voters are. this is a donald trump-generated

turnout tonight. >> lawrence, let me bring you back to new england a little bit. one of the results that we are waiting on tonight, we've got obviously texas and california outstanding. but the other surprise state in which we don't actually have a result is maine. and whether or not you're excited about maine and its 24 delegates, it's a state that sanders won very easily over hillary clinton, more than 20 points in a victory in what were then the main caucuses. it's now too close to call. sanders and biden are within a tenth of a percentage point of each other with elizabeth warren behind them at 17%. when i think of new england, when i think about sanders voters, when i think about sort of the sanders machine and sanders loyalists, i expect maine to be there just as much as vermont basically, and it's part of the reason that i thought that senator sanders would do so well in massachusetts, which he appears to have lost tonight to joe biden. is that maine result, it's too

close to call at this point, but is that also of interest to you? >> yes, and i think it's a products of the last week. i don't think you're going to see that, what we saw in south carolina and really the last five, six days. so the story of the sanders campaign -- i mean i said this in new hampshire at the time and sanders supporters certainly didn't like it because they hadn't quite noticed it mathematically because he was a winner in new hampshire. the story of this year has been half -- about half of his voters from four years ago have gone to other candidates. they've left. they have left the sanders movement. it is a smaller movement than it was. and now what we're seeing since south carolina is there's actually a high-speed movement out of the sanders movement, and there's a movement into the biden column. and this is happening now in a high-speed version that was much harder to anticipate, you know, a very short time ago. and the other thing that's being

kind of a great thing that we're seeing tonight is the defiance, the defiance of money controlling politics. mike bloomberg's money did not control the politics of tonight. the defiance of the so-called vaunted value of the ground game. joe biden winning in states where there's not one person on the biden campaign payroll. that was all kind of thought inconceivable literally until tonight, that you could win a state you've never visited, you could win a state where you couldn't afford a tv ad, you could win a state where you couldn't afford to pay anybody to work for you. so there's some great things happening in this in the defiance of some of the forces that we find so oppressive in our politics, money politics especially. and then to bernie sanders, it should always be noted that bernie sanders himself is campaign finance reform. he takes all of his money directly, basically through

internet fund-raising, from people who have absolutely no possible lobbying interest once he is elected. we've really never seen such a purely financed campaign as bernie sanders'. so it's a kind of triumphant night for the possibilities of defeating the forces of money in politics. >> well put. >> lawrence o'donnell in los angeles, we'll come back early and often for updates. you're at the center of this story now as you so often are. our two biggest pieces of real estate at the start of the night are our two remaining dramas at the end of the night, at least east coast time. we're not going anywhere. too close to call in texas. and as we've been discussing, the result in california could be a long way off. too early to call there. a break in our coverage. we're back with more right after this. ♪ you work hard for your money. stretched days for it.

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as we've been saying, they were the two largest pieces of real estate going into super tuesday. they are the two largest dramas at the other end of super tuesday, on the verge of wednesday east coast. steve kornacki is at the board. we do have some new numbers from texas. hey, steve. >> hey, brian. take a look. that gap, it was 50,000 not long ago between sanders and biden. it has now come all the way down

to 13,000 and change. it just changed. it was cut in half again. >> whoa. >> 5,762. that's half a point. that's all that separates joe biden from the lead in texas. >> with most of the vote in. 54% in. >> let's see if we can figure out what just came in. let's take a look here. this is harris county. we've been talking about it all night. remember, this bubble was giant a minute ago. it has shrunk considerably. there you see joe biden getting now -- remember, on the same day here it was basically a tie between biden and sanders. everything that's come in in harris since then has -- excuse me, on the early it was basically a tie. on the same day, that's everything that has come in since. biden has built an 8,000 vote lead in harris county today. so what that has done statewide, 5,700 votes. it has changed the geography know considerably. you can see the biggest dot. this is outstanding vote. the bigger the dot, the more vote there is to come. it's fort worth, and it's san

antonio. those are the two big et dgest . let's see what's happening. you're basically looking at early vote. we see sanders 31, biden 20. great news for sanders, he's up double digits. what did we just see in harris county, though? joe biden performed 20 points better in the same-day vote versus the early vote. so if that portends what's going to come here in bexar county, there's an opportunity on the same day for biden to actually make up some more ground. we will see if that happens. but it looks like san antonio and i'm going to check in on fort worth, tarrant county. look at that. now we've got some same-day coming in. you've got a tie again. >> an actual tie. >> if the same day is favoring biden here, there's an opportunity for biden to make gains in tarrant county as well. those are the two biggest outstanding pieces of real estate. 5,700 votes. there's an opportunity for joe biden to carry the state of texas tonight. >> unbelievable. >> coming into texas, obviously polling in these things, i

mean -- all polls, grain of salt, right? but coming into the texas race tonight, there was definitely it looked like there was some movement. it looked like there was a possibility that sanders and biden could have a shot and that it would be close. but sanders basically was leading in every super tuesday state that had substantial polling. >> yes. >> so for us to be in a situation right now where sanders, yes, has won his home state of vermont and colorado and utah, but then biden to have run the table otherwise, north carolina, virginia, tennessee, alabama, oklahoma, arkansas, minnesota, massachusetts -- >> massachusetts. >> -- and for it to be this close in texas, it's just -- it is -- these are striking results. this is not what -- stuff has changed over the last few days. >> this is not what the biden -- i talked to the biden campaign, two sources in the biden campaign before the result was known saturday night in south carolina. i said what does success look like for you guys on super tuesday because even if you have the best night of your lives

tonight, you can't buy ads, you -- and this person said delegate accumulation. we're targeting some counties. i mean this person didn't even say winning states. >> they wouldn't pick a state. >> and i don't know. what steve said a couple hours ago, what it looks like is something shocking. it really is a shocking turnaround, and i wonder -- we've had conversations before about how democrats prioritize and make this choice. it seems like this year more than -- and people keep talking about electability in an abstract term. i think tonight electability is around who voters intuit donald trump is most afraid of. if you look at the last year of donald trump's presidency, he got himself impeached trying to take out joe biden. >> the thing about trying to take out joe biden, you have to think about joe biden as being like coca-cola. if i have coca-cola and you make a soda, i still have coca-cola.

it's very difficult to change that brand. biden has a known brand, particularly to the voters who really handed it to him tonight, which is black voters. they know who he is. he's barack obama's v.p. now as i'm thinking about, talking to a lot of black voters particularly in southern states over the last -- and in indiana and places i've been running around for the last couple of months, biden is who they wanted originally. biden was what they were going to go with. then he got shaky. >> he faltered. >> he started to seem maybe it won't work. then i started hearing repeatedly we're going to have to go to bloomberg. black voters, and i've said this before, you know, they're very clinical about it. they just want to win. they want trump gone. that's what they want. and biden was who they wanted because he's a loyal second to barack obama, full stop. but then when he looked shaky, they're like, we'll go to bloomberg. then warren iced him. i mean she ethered him. she finished him. it was kind of a murder/suicide because it didn't help her, but it ended him. when that happened, they went,

okay. so now i just was down in south carolina in selma, and there was a scene inside brown chapel ame that told me biden's going to sweep this out. i knew he'd probably win the southern states but after that night i was like, oh, he's going to not just win, he's going to sweep. biden is inside brown chapel ame, which is this revered church. you don't get on the pulpit. you don't get on the dais in a church like that. >> slow down. tell the story with as much detail as possible. >> so brown chapel is where the march that went across the edmund pettus bridge started. it's where they organized. in the civil rights era, they organized in churches. they were organizing voters in a church they were trying to investigate the fire bombing of it. that's why they were there, right? so churches are where black voters always organize. brown chapel ame is revered in that sense. so brown chapel ame is where

they do this ceremony to start off the commemoration of the march over the edmund pettus bridge. it starts with a service in there. we're in that church. the way that black churches work, you have to be invited to sit on the dais. family sits on the dais, people the pastor says can sit up there. biden was up there. bloomberg was stuck in the audience having to sit there and watch person after person stand up on that church. reverend sharpton was on the dais. terri sewell, that's her home church. she gets up and says, basically this is biden country. this is biden's home. biden gets to speak from the pulpit. bloomberg does too, but he's in the audience. he's stuck there having to grimace and watch everyone laud this other person, laud this other candidate. he couldn't even leave because he would have had to cross across the pulpit to leave. so he's sitting there grimacing. i'm mostly watching his face as

he's just miserable. when he finally gets up to speak after being laid into by the pastor about his policies, stop and frisk, things like that, people turn their back on him in the church. that doesn't happen in churches. ame is a formal kind of church. when biden gets up, nothing but love. he gets up and speaks. he turns to reverend sharpton and says, you remember this and that, rev? pastor, you know we go back. he's got relationships. bloomberg just had money. and when we got out on to the edmund pettus bridge, bloomberg was booed. he was heckled. people were chanting "stop and frisk." people weren't exactly eager to march next to him. this revered moment when biden had left, he wasn't even marching. people who were already out, pete buttigieg marched, amy klobuchar marched. elizabeth warren marched. all these other people. but it was still biden's home, and that means -- that told me, oh, biden's going to win the whole south.

>> and indeed he not only has won it, he has won it resoundingly. >> black voters said, you know what? that's nice. you want a revolution? the answer, no. >> there's the scene joy reid has been talking about. it reminds me of a phrase that came from law enforcement, allowing people out of jail early. credit for time served. they award credit for time served. >> yes. >> and that scene of some of the congregants turning their backs when bloomberg spoke was beamed around the world. >> remarkable. >> a break in our coverage. we're back, still watching texas, watching california, watching this race. i'm your 70lb st. bernard puppy, and my lack of impulse control, is about to become your problem. ahh no, come on. i saw you eating poop earlier.

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shhhhh! nyquil severe with vicks vapocool. the vaporizing nighttime, coughing, aching, stuffy head, best sleep with a cold, medicine. in august 1619, a ship appeared on this horizon, near point comfort, virginia. it carried more than 20 enslaved africans, who were sold to the colonists. no aspect of the country we know today has been untouched by the slavery that followed. america was not yet america, but this was the moment it began. [sfx: typing] here is the great state of texas, and 228 delegates. we can't -- we can't make this up. graphics don't lie, nor does

steve kornacki, who during the break flagged us that in texas, there had been a change. steve, what is going on out there? >> big state, small margin. 450 votes right now separating joe biden from bernie sanders and the lead in texas. and i keep looking at this thing very closely because it keeps changing and keeps getting closer. i want to see if it switches again. but what just happened that made it that close, we got what i believe is the last vote here out of dallas county. again, this is 10% of the state. we talk about the blue wave of 2018. we talk about the suburbs fliming democratfli flipping democratic. this is a place where you look at the same-day vote. we've been monitoring this. i was looking at biden and sanders tied a while ago. suddenly it's a 10,000 vote lead in this county and suddenly this is as close to tied as you can be without actually being tied. again, we're trying to figure

out exactly where the outstanding vote is. i'm going to put that back up there. we're looking at san antonio. we're looking at fort worth, a little in houston, in el paso, see if that beto o'rourke at the last minute has any impact out there. oh, did that -- there it is. >> look at what happened. >> joe biden is in the lead. >> look at that. 1,200 votes. was it here? i'll try to figure out where it is but you see the trend. he was down 50,000 not long ago. now he's up 1,200. >> steve, can i interrupt your process and ask you to do a little bit of that checking on air? we're looking at in terms of the missing vote, it looked like the largest amount of vote missing was in santa ani antonio. >> let's get really granular. what this looks like right here is the early vote in bexar county, san antonio, an 11-point advantage there, sanders over biden. keep in mind we have the data stream that comes in here and we have my laptop computer.

my computer is looking at the bexar county board of elections site right now. we don't have their returns coming into this board. i'm going to tell you what their county website says right now. it says 82 of 280 vote centers reporting same-day total. so they've got some of their same-day being reported. i don't think we have any in here. in their same-day right now, joe biden, 36.62%. bernie sanders, 36.33%. they have biden leading the same day by about 57 votes right there. >> wow. >> so we will see. if that's true, that's basically a tie on the same day versus a double-digit gap in the early vote. so it's still a continuation of that trend. at this point biden would just like to break even in that same day in bexar county. >> if that holds, if that's how san antonio comes in, then the tie we've got right now will still be the tie we have then. >> steve is going to be touching that board in regular increments for the rest of the night, i

just know it. david plouffe joins joy reid here in the studio. is it fair to say, you look at dallas county and the sway it has politically, that if you work in politics and can fog up a mirror, that's where you would have put last night's joe biden event? >> yeah, yeah. so for somebody who's literally gotten their great result tonight on the wings of momentum and a prayer basically. >> free media. >> but smart, strategic decisions. >> yeah. >> if you look at the states to come up, you know, he's obviously getting tattooed in early vote, making it up today. so arizona, florida, georgia, the states coming up with a lot of early vote, he should have the momentum and the money and the political support and a little bit more organization. but that was a brilliant place to hold the event yesterday. >> the gdynamic joy describes, you can't buy, you can't insist upon it.

that is credit for time served. >> absolutely. i think if the bernie sanders campaign could do it all over again, they might have gone to selma. his absence was noticed. >> i was surprised. >> and, remember, pete buttigieg went, i guess, knowing he was going to drop out. so he kind of got a little credibility for standing in that line, he and chasten buttigieg were in that line. bernie sanders was in california doing an event with the remainder of public enemy or part of public enemy, chuck d. if you think about it, california, if he had maced out in california, if right now he was up by ten points in california, i would say that's a smart decision. he put his money where his votes were. but it looks like he's squeaking in california and he just got mowed down in the south. and the black vote is the base of the democratic party. black women are the base. so the idea that he hasn't grown with black voters is a huge problem. one very short other anecdote. we did a focus group with young

black south carolina voters, five young black south carolina voters. of the five, three were biden or open to biden. one was biden/warren. and two were warren. northbound was for bernie. these are young. these are his supposed base, young black voters. biden just has a staying power and a brand strength that we haven't really been anticipating. it's basically borrowed from barack obama, but it's real. >> can we talk about what is going to happen between the bernie sanders movement, the bernie sanders campaign and the rest of the democratic party? if bernie sanders is the nominee, that's been hashed over and discussed and pundified within an inch of its life over the past couple of weeks, especially since nevada. but if bernie sanders is not going to be the nominee and let's say joe biden is going to be the nominee, what are the options that the democratic party and joe biden have for trying to keep bernie sanders -- either bring him back into the

democratic party tent or keep as many of his supporters in the tent. it's still very raw, open wounds from 2016 in terms of people feeling like senator sanders was never -- that his own campaign didn't stop enough for his efforts to actually benefit the person who became the nominee instead of him. were there any lessons learned there? will the democrats be any better at doing that if that once again is their task? >> i'd say once again, bernie sanders spent some chunk of this campaign as the national front-runner, and i think he's still in a strong position. a little different than last time where i think there was a sense he wasn't taken seriously. first of all, it's on joe biden and his campaign to do everything possible, their local volunteers to reach out and invite sanders volunteers, hire some of the sanders staff. i'm sure bernie sanders will do the right thing. but i think what's most important is at the more local level, you know, do people feel welcome? do they feel listened to? do sanders people, if he's not the nominee, have the ability to

complain about how they were treated? i went through this in '08. the hillary people didn't come over like that no matter what she and barack obama said. there's a sense that, well, trump is the thing that will unify us. i think he will bring a lot of people together. but if you don't work -- whether biden is the nominee or sanders is the nominee, the winner in my view better treat that process as seriously as you do trying to win wisconsin. because you're not going to win wisconsin without proper unification. >> let's talk about what that means. i'm still watching results in maine tonight where it's amazing that the primary is too close to call with 84% in. let's say joe biden's the nominee. what happens to those organizers for bernie sanders who fully expected to run off with maine the way they did in 2016? they fully expected they were in sanders territory. they ended up losing at home. they ended up losing the nomination to joe biden. who do maine organizers for the

democratic party and joe biden's invisible campaign in maine do to make sure that they work for the nominee, campaign for the nominee and come out and vote. >> you'd have local events all throughout maine in both congressional districts. you know, the party might organize it. inviting sanders folks. since biden hasn't had much of a stuff, i'd like to hire some of those sanders staff. i'd have listening sessions. can't just say, hey, general election has started. my point is if you don't treat it with great care, again with the maniacal intensity, you're not going to get to where you have to go. biden is showing great strength in the suburbs, great strength in the african-american. to beat donald trump we need it all, including not just young vote, but the passionate volunteer support from young people, it's got to be there. it's going to take work. i don't think if we're sitting

here on the stage november 3rd or november 4th and donald trump strides into the mar-a-lago ballroom having won re-election, my guess is the number one reason won't be because we unified but it's going to be top five reason and we've got to take it seriously. i know that's a scary thought but we should keep that in mind too. that's what we're heading toward if we don't unify and work hard. >> our friend, the historian and author jon meacham, is with us and we can't possibly talk to jon meacham, tennessee native, nashville resident, without noting what happened last night. jon, we're so saddened. the loss of life was 25. that's the last number i remember seeing. those of us with friends like you in nashville were checking the damage against maps of the city, and first of all, tell us how your town is doing. >> resilient as ever.

you know, ten years ago there were devastating floods. tragically and bizarrely, some of the same neighborhoods that were hit last night were also hit 30 years ago and 20 years ago. it's an odd and sad fact. but these are the best people in the world, and people are rallying around, and we appreciate everybody's concern. >> well, we've been thinking about all of you. and on to the subject of the night. what if i had told you two weeks ago that the american south would rise to an extent for joe biden to rewrite this race? >> what i find so fascinating about this is it's a vote for normalcy, an old phrase from the 1920s in our politics. it's a sense that as insane as everything has felt, as unconventional to say the least

as everything has been since 2015, there is still a resilient core of american voters, in this case the democratic primaries but i suspect beyond that, who believe that the basic american project, the basic american experiment that, as vice president said tonight, are the folks that believe we're always stronger the more generously we apply the implications of that most important sentence ever written, that we're all created equal. and even though we don't live up to it, i think as the vice president has masterfully coined on the stump, we may not have always lived up to it but we've never walked away from it either until recent years. i think this is a big affirmative vote for a kind of american consensus that is not totally centrist. i'm not saying that the middle is always right. you know, there was not a middle

path on slavery. there was not a middle path on hitler. there was not a middle path on the cold war. there was not a middle path on civil rights. there was a right and a wrong, and there are rights and wrongs. but we have prospered most in this country for more than 200 years, almost 2 1/2 centuries, when we've had leadership that has basically represented the idea that if we are generous, if we are forward-leaning, if we are open-armed as opposed to close-fisted, then we tend to prosper more than we regress. and i think so many of us have worried that we are regressing and have for the last three years. vice president biden has not won the presidency yet, but his success tonight, i think, tells us that people are very interested in returning to a coherent conversation about the

country, and it's a conversation in which we can disagree without blowing up the fundamental infrastructure of liberty and prosperity. >> while we've been talking, joe biden's lead just jumped. i just want to show the fol watching at home steve's board while steve works and you and i talk. jon, what's the chance that this is the kind -- is going to be the kind of democratic convention we should have historians on hand to cover? >> right. well, we always hope for that, don't we? it never quite works out. >> i don't know what you're talking about. >> you know, we're charlie brown, and we always miss the football on contested conventions. the last one really was 1976, reagan and ford. you go back to -- i think you have to go back to the '50s for more than one ballot. look, we're living in an age where donald trump is president

of the united states, and tonight joe biden a week ago, who couldn't get arrested, has in many ways revived his candidacy and become -- i love joementum -- has become this remarkable figure. so as william goldman said about hollywood, nobody knows anything. and i think the beginning of wisdom in this political era is -- we should all be a little more humble about our predictive capacities, which have proven wildly uncommensurate with the task at hand. >> hey, jon, i guess i would love to hear you talk about what you make of bernie sanders and what he put together because it does represent a genuine anxiety and anger among americans, particularly white americans who don't have the covering of sort of, you know, social superiority of the past decades to cover over economic want. what do you make of the

revolution he's tried to build and what do you make of the fact that it's fallen short tonight? >> it's an incredibly important critique of exactly what you're talking about, of american life. we've had about a 30-year cycle now. when adjusted for inflation, working class wages have not progressed. we have not seen the kind of after the second ty for people world war. but remember even that was limited, you know? african-americans, women were not participating in the great post-war middle class, and so i'm not being sentimental here, and i'm certainly not being nostalgic. but i do think if you look back at moments that we would want to emulate or that we tend to commemorate, those are moments where someone with the kind of world view that biden has have been in the ascendance. and i think that senator sanders represents an enduring and

important element in american life. henry wallace in 1948 represent the progressivism. you had george mcgovern in 1972. you've had -- norman thomas for many, many years. you had people arguing for a democratic socialist safety net coming out of really the progressive era that has an immense amount of people particularly when they're suffering and when they don't feel they are being included in the mainstream of american life. it is also the fact, however, historically that most liberal democratic progress -- and i can capitalize that or not capitalize it as you wish -- have come from figures like franklin roosevelt, like harry truman, like john kennedy, like lyndon johnson, people who have been closer to where biden is

than where sanders is. that's just a fact of the past. the future may not bear that out, but right now, tonight, what's true in american history is that the most liberal progress has been made by people like biden rather than people like sanders. >> jon meacham, thank you for joining us tonight. it's good to have you with us on a night that is still unfolding and we're still trying to make sense of. it's great to have you here. one of the states we are continuing to watch tonight in addition to the big ones of california, the most delegates at stake, and texas, is the state of maine, which has a grand total of 24 delegates. we've been talking so much tonight about the various levels of appeal of each of the candidates and all of the candidates to various communities of color. maine is one of the whitest states in the country. it's a state that bernie sanders did very well in in 2016 in what was a caucus. this is a primary. but right now 87% of the vote in, still too close to call, and

joe biden narrowly leading. we'll keep watching that as well as the big states of texas and california as our coverage continues. (whistling) (whistling)

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they are home to 29 and 40 million americans respectively -- texas, california, the two big ones going into tonight. they may very well lead us into wednesday and then some. >> we're already into wednesday. >> that's true, but not everywhere. not everywhere people are watching. it's still tuesday in some parts of the country. >> also we didn't say which wednesday. >> of course. good point there. >> california, who knows? >> steve has been nervously circling his map because every time he looks at it, say nothing of make static electricity contact with it, the votes change and we're talking about texas. steve? >> here we go, brian. biden now leading in texas by 25,000 votes. >> unbelievable. >> the trajectory on this has all been one way. he was down 50,000. i think it was probably about

two hours ago. now up 25,000. to give you a sense of what's happening here, and again if you've been watching closely tonight, you've seen there are a few places where -- i'll give you an example here. bexar county, san antonio, you're basically looking at the early vote here. but i've been looking at the bexar county website, and we've got more. we've got about 55% of their same-day vote on their county website. it's not reflected here. so this is a preview of coming attractions i can give you here. in their same-day vote right now, the lead for joe biden is 420 votes. 420 votes. that's 1.19%, but biden is leading in the same-day vote in bexar county. so the votes that start to get added in here at some point, if their county website is correct, they are going to help joe biden ever so slightly. now it's up to 28,000 votes statewide. another one i can tell you, that difference between the early and the same-day, look right here. travis county, the state capital, austin, a very liberal

county. bernie sanders, elizabeth warren doing very well here. how about this? you're seeing a lot of the early vote here. biden down at 12%. on the same-day vote here, he's running closer to 30%. he's not winning it, but he's not losing nearly as much ground. so basically the situation we're seeing in texas right now is this. i checked a minute ago. it looks like there are about 30 counties where we have no vote whatsoever reported. that no vote means in those counties there is going to be some early vote that's not going to be biden-friendly vote. the counties where we already have the early vote in the state, though, even the counties where sanders is winning, biden seems to be doing better in the same-day vote. so that seems to be what has been moving him every time we check in further and further along because even in a county where he loses by, as you saw there in bexar county, loses by 11 in the early, running just a little bit ahead in the same-day, and is ticking upward

in the statewide county. >> then there's california. again, coming up on 12:30 eastern time, polls have been closed in california, but that doesn't mean people aren't still trying to exert their right to vote. katy tur remains in east l.a. katy, what's it been like? >> reporter: brian, the line is sli shrinking, but shrinking very slowly. they've ordered pizza here so they could get food while they've waited. this line is getting smaller but you can see people are not having the most wonderful time even though they're trying to make it better with the music and they're getting food. i mean there are folks here with their babies. nobody wants to be out at a polling place with an infant. as some with an infant, i can tell you, for hours on end waiting to vote. there are only five machines in there, brian. we keep saying this. three of them are working. they asked for more machines.

they did not get more machines. part of the problem -- i know there's same-day voting here but there's also been voting that's gone on for 11 days at these new voting centers they have in california. but part of the problem in los angeles county in particular is that there are 20 million registered voters in california, 16 million registered voters got mail-in ballots. why did 4 million voters not get mail-in ballots? because for some reason l.a. county opted out of that. they don't have mail-in ballots that automatically go to all of the voters in this county. they're not going to have it until 2022. so those 4 million voters, some of them did mail-in ballots if they requested them, but a lot of them did not. so same-day voting, coming in and getting in these lines was the option for a lot of people. the voting centers, yes, they've been open, but not everybody knew that. so, again, the line is

shrinking, but there is frustration about how this is going down in california. this is not the only line. i've seen snakes of lines in marina del rey, in hollywood, it is happening all over this county. >> people should be saluted for what they've put up with tonight. also you just miss the kind of a perfect cartwheel behind you, so salute that little girl. katy tur in east l.a. let's go over to -- >> it's going to be me next. >> jo ling kent standing by. a decidedly different backdrop but no difference in terms of the wait to vote. jo ling? >> reporter: that's right. it's been almost an hour and a half since polls closed, and our new friend max here is the last guy in line at uc irvine. good news is he's wearing pretty comfortable shoes. he's got his sneakers on, and he's very patient. that's what we're seeing from the student voters who have turned out today at uc irvine. they are telling me, as they've been casting their ballots here and coming out to talk to us,

some of them have shared very generously that they are indeed supporting senator bernie sanders here at uc irvine. you've got the one-off support for bloomberg and biden, a lot of buttigieg supporters moving over to biden here at uc irvine. however earlier today we were at irvine city hall and that is a very different demographic of voters. very few students. a lot more adults, working suburban residents. and they were talking more about biden to us. th some voters coming up and saying i wish we could switch our vote from buttigieg or klobuchar to support bidebiden. they cannot do that. that is the tale of the two orange counties we've seen today. you'll remember back in 2018 this was a district that had that red curtain that was flipped with representative katie porter. so the question here is will the bernie supporters win out and if those support biden and they come in second place or lower, where will they go?

will they turn up for a possible bernie sanders nominee? >> jo ling kent, thank you for that live reporting and for staying with the line, which now has an end. >> growing up in california, i was born in 1973 and i lived there until i was out of college. orange county, the idea that orange county would be like a swing area, even student democratic votes is so crazy. i mean orange county was the bread basket of the republican -- the west coast republican revival. that's reagan republicans. the nixon presidential library and everything that came thereafter. and the idea that the democrats, in very recent years, have been able to turn -- to flip orange county congressional seats. >> there's coffee places there now. >> i know. i mean it is -- it's a reminder that things change. it's a story about changing

demographics and the importance of immigration and minority communities and internal mobility in this country. but it's also the story of what the democratic party has done in very recent years to try to make themselves a big-tent party in places that can speak to changing demographics in places like orange county, california. i mean it is just -- i mean it's sometimes good to step back and take the longer lens on things. >> robert gibbs, take the longer lens. what are we witnessing? >> well, there are a thousand data points tonight on how this shift has happened. i'll give you one. in the nbc poll sunday morning in texas, sanders 34, biden 19. that's not to say the poll was wrong. that's a poll of what is happening at that moment. >> 15-point margin. >> again, we were thinking can biden hold on to be viable enough? and now we're talking about

winning texas. i think you're looking at the likelihood that he comes out of super tuesday with more delegates than bernie sanders. inconceivable 48 hours ago. >> crazy. joy, i was going to say about the south, we had a question in the exit poll about whether or not this is still obama's democratic party. >> yeah. >> whether or not people wanted obama's democratic party. when you look at the board tonight, what's the answer? >> well, if you break it down, white voters -- if you're in the south and you're still a democrat, you're pretty liberal. so in these exit polls and entrance polls in these southern states, white voters were saying we want policies more liberal than barack obama, and african-american voters were saying, no, we want to return to barack obama's policies. so i think it depends. i think it is barack obama's party in the sense there is the nbc reporting that he may have signaled without saying kind of what he wanted to have happen and saw that as a really smart

politician, that maybe there were just too many people in the field. it was too fragmented, too chaot chaotic, and people need to start thinking about getting behind one candidate. since biden showed he was alive and well, that he was the guy. the other thing we have to remember is the democratic party has not been going about focusing on the south and staying in the south. democrats go through the south and win a lot of super tuesday primaries and then they go away. this year they aren't going to go away because there's an active senate race that jamie harrison -- he's got the connection. so this is clyburn's guy running. you've got not one but two georgia united states senates seats up. this might be the first election at least since carter maybe where you're going to have democrats have to play in the south. so these votes matter. these are biden/obama -- these are obama/biden votes. if you're going to be able to let's say beat a lindsey graham, which isn't easy, but he doesn't

win by 70 points when he wins. he wins by 54, 55. he's not unbeatable. and democrats finally feel like, you know what, maybe trump has made people so exhausted that even though, you know, 90% of southern white voters are republicans, they were -- a lot of people are moving out of new york. they can't afford to live here. a lot of them live in north carolina, south carolina, georgia, even alabama, even tennessee. there were a lot of new york accents in nashville. i think this year the top of the ticket matters. jamie harrison wants joe biden to be at the top of the ticket to help him. >> he sure does. >> really badly. i think it's highly likely whoever the nominee is going to pick a black woman nominee. they owe the black community a lot because the black community is saving joe biden's behind tonight. it's highly likely he picks someone like that. suddenly the map is bigger, and that's good for democrats in a world where they needed those three states to win. >> i think this is a good point in the programming to say we've just now completed the fourth inning of the baseball game, and

joe biden has had a really good fourth inning. the fifth inning is coming up, and it's a different campaign. >> mm-hmm. >> but it's not -- this campaign's not over, right? we've got some states that look pretty good for biden. there's some states in here that will be pretty good for sanders. i think there's certainly a challenge coming out of tonight for sanders to put some stuff back together and figure out if he can grow that coalition. but joe biden's got to figure out too, he's got to be a good candidate for more than one week in this race, right? he's got a debate that's going to come up and he's got to be on his game. he's got to prosecute this campaign probably one-on-one in a way that helps him win the nomination but allows him to put the party back together. >> and hire the people who know how to do that. >> and for both of them. look, this is an unmistakably amazing night for joe biden. but tomorrow a different campaign starts, and this

nomination's not over in any stretch of the imagination. we still have a lot of baseball to play. >> i will also say too in terms of tonight, california is the biggest prize and not by a little, by a lot. and we are not going to know what happened in california for a long time. >> hear hear. >> it's not going to be an error. it's not going to be like iowa in terms of screwing it up. >> michigan votes in a week and we may know a lot more about michigan than california. >> that is not hyperbole. in terms of thinking about additional momentum out of this night, seeing joe biden's name on that gigantic list of states he's won including states outside the south is going to give him tlufhrust. but in terms of the biggest group of delegates at stake, this is going to be an ongoing story for a week-plus. >> we're going to take a comparatively short commercial break. when we still come back, we still have kornacki cam, by the way. a camera focused on and dedicated to the machinations of our own steve kornacki.

there he is. that's his right shoulder. that's where we're going when we come back from a break because we have new numbers from texas and california. >> very good. >> tech: don't wait for a chip like this to crack your whole windshield. with safelite's exclusive resin, you get a strong repair that you can trust. plus, with most insurance a safelite repair is no cost to you. >> customer: really?! >> singers: safelite repair, safelite replace.

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two stories remain. our sole focus -- california and texas. and to a lesser but very important extent, steve kornacki at the big board because numbers have just -- more numbers from texas, steve? >> look at this. biden's lead now in texas two-thirds in, it has moved up to 36,000. again, 40% of the vote was in. biden was trailing sanders by 50,000. two thirds of the vote is in. biden moving ahead by 36,000. what this reflects, we've been talking about it. even in these counties where overall biden is not doing that great, he's having a good election day in texas. that means the early vote might not have favored him but once you start getting to the same day, joe biden's doing very well in texas. he has moved ahead there. that is part of a much larger, extremely good night for joe biden. one thing i just want to put in perspective here. this is the running delegate count our decision desk is putting to the. they allocate these things.

there's a lot more for them to allocate. in terms of estimating, broad rough estimate that i can do on this rough delegate calculator. as you get closer to 100% in all these states, if you take california out of it for just a minute, let me just show you this math because i think this will -- if you bear with me for five seconds, i have to put the number one in three times and you will understand why. two, three. okay. so if you take california out of it and you have everything else, right now i think joe biden roughly is up by, i'm going to say, 125 delegates over bernie sanders from everything else here. again, we'll see how texas finishes. it might move two points this way, two points that way. but there's so much voting in these places, you're not getting that much movement. i think biden outside of california is up 125 delegates. let me do a scenario in california. huge piece of real estate. not a lot of vote in. let's say bernie sanders wins california in a landslide over joe biden. i'm going to put 42% in for

bernie sanders. joe biden, 23%. we'll put warren at 15% at the threshold. if you do that, joe biden still gets more delegates tonight in this rough delegate estimator. >> even if you award california and a landslide to bernie sanders. >> a landslide in this estimate. again, this is rough. take it for what it's worth. this comes in at biden plus 29 for the night. that's losing by 19 points in california. one other tweak that i can do, this would be the dream sanders scenario. nobody else gets viable. more delegates up for grabs. let me try that and see what it tells me. in that scenario, the biden lead shrinks to 13, but it is a biden leaded. >> that's with nobody else viable in california besides sanders? >> in this crude scenario, sanders 42, biden 23. they're getting some in congressional districts but

overall, yeah, it's a 115 delegate advantage statewide for sanders over biden in that scenario. again, it's just a product of -- we talk about this. when you look at a delegate race, the map can mess with your mind because we're just trained to think about the big states. but what biden did tonight was he got landslides in places like tennessee and alabama and arkansas. if you get landslides in states like that, you net 30, 35, 40 delegates. so biden just got a ton out of the southeast tonight. he held his own in the northern tier of the country. he certainly held his own in texas. he might win in outright. he puts himself in a position where he could suffer a blowout loss in texas and it's very conceivable right now that he'd end up with more delegates than bernie sanders. this was supposed to be -- tonight was supposed to be the sanders map night. later in the month we're supposed to be the biden maps. if biden comes out of the

sanders map night ahead, his campaign is saying just wait till we get to florida, georgia, mississippi because there are states coming up based on what you're seeing tonight, joe biden looks poised to do very well. >> can i make a request. can you show us some -- wheel around and show us some counties in the south like you did when biden won every county in south carolina. i couldn't remember the last time i'd seen that. that's plalabama. >> yeah. >> that's extraordinary. >> montgomery, the state capital, 64 to 12 to 6. again, alabama tonight, large african-american electorate, not quite as big as we saw last week in south carolina. but this is what happens. joe biden overwhelming success with the black vote. nobody else making meaningful inroads there. it powers him to wins like this tonight. sanders is barely, barely viable statewide with 60% in. alabama doesn't have a ton of

delegates. it's nothing delegate-wise compared to california. but when you're winning alabama 63-16, you're netting delegates. >> you recognize your home state there? >> absolutely. i was going to make that point of sanders has to hang on there, or it's everything to joe biden. and i think what's remarkable tonight, and you could never have quite planned it this strategically, but in places that biden needed bloomberg not to be viable, he wasn't, right? in a bunch of these southern states that allowed him to rack up delegates, in places where he needed him to be viable, states like colorado where you knew he was going to struggle. and if you're splitting that vote not two ways but four ways, he got a lot of help in that tonight. so for all of the bloomberg is bad scenario, he helped him in a decent number of states being viable in places and not viable in others. >> although in california the story may be much more complicated than that.

we've only got 28% in. steve has been telling us all night the sliver in california is very skewed compared to the overall state. but right now bernie sanders is first. michael bloomberg is second. joe biden is third, still above threshold viability. but that's a different story altogether. >> people are still voting in california. people are still voting in texas where the polls closed hours ago. we're going to take a break. when we come back, we will go there and show you live the situation in texas.

we do it every night. every night. i live alone, but i still do it every night. right after dinner. definitely after meatloaf. like clockwork.

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shape your future. start here. learn more at 2020census.gov welcome back and we're going to start by talking about the race in texas. and we'll go back a few grade years in school to remind everybody. citizenship in this country, adulthood comes with the right to vote, to be a part of a democracy. people have fought and died for that right, but it's to be expected that you'll be able to cast your vote as an adult. garrett haake is in houston. garrett, a native texan, has spoken to a gentleman. garrett, am i correct that he has waited five hours to vote? >> reporter: 5 1/2, brian. i'm embarrassed about this as a texan. we're on the campus of texas southern university,

historically black college in houston, one of the busiest polling places in this area i was told all day today. but basically everything here went wrong and voters like justin mcveigh, who i'm going to bring in right now. you waited 5 1/2 hours to vote. what were you told during the course of the wait? what happened here today? >> well, the whole time we were out here, they were saying they had more machines coming in because there was only 20 at first and 10 for republicans, 10 for democrats. but as we got closer and closer, people were coming out saying the machines weren't working. next thing you know they said we have 18 more machines coming and stuff like that. then those machines when they got here, they had to reboot. literally the whole time we've been out here, none of the machines have been functioning the way they said it was. there's only two people signing up to go in. >> two total staffers checking i.d.s? >> yes, sir. two staffers. >> this is a brand-new polling place.

>> usually we go to emancipation park. you'll be out of there in five minutes. literally there's thousands of us and we've been sitting out here for five hours, since 6:30. they have nice people that have been bringing us pizza and cookies and drinks. but at the end of the day, we've been out here for five hours. and when you got inside the building, you still had to wait 2 1/2 hours. >> why did you say? >> because we really wanted to get our vote across and we really felt like they must have been doing this on purpose to discourage people to come vote or just walk away, maybe next time. but, you know, you might not get a next time. i think a lot of people were motivating each other to stick around. >> you were sending a message just by not going home. >> that's what we were trying to do, just kind of keep everybody up and keep everybody positive because if you don't vote, we kind of know where it's going. so everybody just stuck out here and kept everybody up. but like i say, people are still in there right now voting.

it's still slow. it's 14 machines in there right now and there's like three people. >> i got to let you go. thank you for staying. i hope this gets handled before november. so you heard that. we cannot go inside. i can't show you the line here. texas state law keeps us outside this polling place. but there were st. louill a cou dozen folks inside when i looked around. they got here early. they got here before the polls closed. god bless them for sticking it out and doing it. >> what did he do? he praised the nice people who brought them cookies and pizza. we have a new hero, and it's that gentleman. garrett, thank you very much. >> i will say we had talked about this a little bit earlier. in texas, mclennan county, home to waco, texas, closed 44% of its polling places between 2012 and 2018. during that time, its population grew by more than 15,000 people. more than two-thirds of that growth, african-american and

latino population growth. in the 50 counties that gained the most black and latino population between 2012 and 2018, those are counties where the population rose by 2.5 million people. texas, between 2012 and 2018, closed 542 of the polling places in those 50 counties. this is something that is systematically under way in texas. texas is not the only state that is contending with this and not the only state with lines tonight. but some of this is deliberate. >> who did the people of texas see about that? >> well, they see their state representatives in state government, and they can only do so if they're allowed in free and fair elections to choose them. >> i know our justice department has a civil rights unit. >> they used to also have a voting rights act. it's infuriating. >> well, here we are coming up on 56 after the hour. our live coverage is going to continue, but as my friend here has been very candid all

evening, if you're in california and you're waiting on us to give you a result like anything approaching super tuesday night -- >> it's not going to happen. >> maybe moderate wednesday, hopeful thursday. >> maine is not yet resolved. >> yep. >> texas is not yet resolved although it may yet resolve this evening. california, not resolved and not much hope that it will resolve, not even a sense that california is aiming at that, in part because people could still have their ballots postmarked today. but we may yet get texas results before we go to bed tonight. >> as always, what she said. quick break for us. our live coverage continues.

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good morning from new york. i'm chris hayes. our msnbc coverage of super tuesday continues right now. 14 states and american samoa have cast their vote in the democratic presidential primary today. one-third of the total delegates will be decided. we do not have a full picture yet, but as results come in, what is becoming overwhelmingly clear is we have entered a new phase. it's a whole new raise as of this morning. it is a two-person race. the reality of the math after tonight is that there are two candidates, two people that could conceivably win enough delegates to become the democratic nominee, joe biden or

bernie sanders. here is the total deteriorate picture at this hour. biden in first followed by sanders. elizabeth warren and michael bloomberg are still in the race as of tonight, but they do not appear to have a direct path to accruing enough delegates to gain the nomination. these results are a culmination, but a pretty stunning reversal of fortune in just the past 72 hours of the race. remember, joe biden headed into south carolina, favored for a narrow victory. even that had a question mark on it. he got a key, crucial heartfelt passionate endorsement, one of the most influential figures in south carolina politics congressman jim clyburn. joe biden had a huge victory in that state. he then raised a ton of money. and then a whole bunch of democrats who are looking to stop bernie sanders's momentum and rally around an alternative very publicly came out for joe biden. amy klobuchar drops out of the race and endorses. pete buttigieg the same. beto o'rourke coming out at the last minute to endorse joe biden

in the state of texas. and we are seeing the result of all that activity over the last 72 hours tonight. exit polls showing that late deciding voters broke heavily for joe biden, helping him, for one, carry the state of minnesota, which was borderline unthinkable two days ago, particularly when klobuchar was in the race. he now has as of the most recent votes we're getting a slight edge in texas, where he was polling far behind sanders just a few days ago. for more on what the overall picture looks like, i want to bring in msnbc national political reporter steve kornacki at the big board. steve, give us an overview of where we are right now. >> yeah, so let's take a look. first of all, what you see over here, this is the official delegate count from our decision desk as the state vote totals come in. they start allocating them. you had a lot of states tonight, north carolina and alabama and oklahoma, clayplaces like this e we know who won. it's very clear. not all the delegates have been allocated yet. what i can tell you is more of an estimate based on my own

delegate estimator over here. not the official nbc calculation. i want to make that clear, before i speak anything further. but we have so much of the vote in from everywhere except california right now, we do have a pretty good sense i think at what the delegate picture is going to look like from everything else up here. and one thing you see right away. look, biden won landslides in virginia, in north carolina, in tennessee, in alabama, in arkansas, and oklahoma. landslide wins get you lots of delegates. we've got a close race in texas, as you said. biden may win this close. sanders could still win this close. massachusetts is close. biden wins minnesota fairly close. maine is very close. all that of is a long way of saying by virtue of landslides here for biden in the southeast, and basically trench warfare everywhere else when it comes to delegates, except colorado. sanders did pretty well in colorado. but basically, what that means is an advantage for biden probably of about 125 delegates. he is probably going to have 125

or so more than sanders from every state except california. and that takes you out to california with 415 delegates up for grabs. and the story a week ago in california was that biden was in grave danger of missing that critical 15% threshold. there was a possibility a week ago that sanders would be the only candidate and sanders would net something on the order of 330 delegates out of california. the indications now just based on everything we're seeing tonight are that biden seems likely to hit that 15%, probably comfortably hit that 15%. what happens then, when biden is getting delegates, when sanders is getting delegates, when there is a possibly of bloomberg also getting delegates out of california, it means sander, even if he wins the state isn't going to get the kind of haul he is looking for. i put it into my calculator. i put like a 20-point sanders win in california with biden hitting the threshold. and that 125 fell to about 25 or

so. he could shave about 100 off. he could maybe do a little bit better. these are rough numbers. but you get a sense here, chris, delegate lead at the end of the night i think very, very, very possibly is going to belong to joe biden. and this was supposed to be the good night for sanders when it came to what the states were and what the delegates were. >> let me just zero in on and then i'll go to david plouffe in just a second on the delegate math. in terms of looking at the categories of states, it seems to me you have a few categories here you. have you the southern states that look kind of like south carolina where we saw great blowout wins, states like alabama, virginia, for joe biden. and then three states that are interesting to me where it looks like sanders surprisingly underperformed, massachusetts, maine and minnesota. minnesota obviously sort of a sui genre situation. klobuchar dropping out. are the numbers in total disappointing for sanders tonight? >> i suspect so. i suspect his campaign is a look

agent those states and saying geez, elizabeth warren is a big factor in that. but it does. if we're coming out of tonight, chris, with a scenario where biden is tied, biden is ahead slightly, it looks something like i'm presenting right here. here is the problem for sanders based on what you're seeing about the demographic patterns that emerged tonight. look what's to come just this month. we're going have mississippi. mississippi is going to be next week. mississippi is not big -- you know what the margin in mississippi was in 2016? bernie sanders lost mississippi by 68 points. it was 84-16. what did that mean? it meant that hillary clinton netted 30 delegates over bernie sanders out of mississippi. looking at the demographics, the black vote demographics we've been talking about all night, what happened to bernie sanders in 2016 certainly looks like -- florida, the polling for sanders looks terrible out of florida. he loves it by 32 points in 2016 to hillary clinton. if you're losing at anything like that, you're going to fall. georgia is coming up on the 24th. georgia is a state that hillary

clinton got 71% against bernie sanders. this is my biggest takeaway tonight. there are states that bernie sanders won and states where he is close. there are not outside of vermont landslide sanders states. he may get one out of california. he may get a pretty good one. but if biden has some landslides on the menu coming up, and you're in a delegate race, sanders has to match it. as big as georgia, as big as mississippi, sanders is going to have to match those margins going forward. that's why he wanted to be ahead in the delegates tonight to pad those blows. >> that's exactly right. steve kornacki as always, illuminating. i'm going turn to david plouffe who of course was campaign manager for that obama campaign in 2008 and then again in 2012. you and i spoke in manchester on the eve of the new hampshire primary where you said this -- you made this point independent of who it was going about the at that point. just a fact about the math. where you said if you get a sizable delegate lead, whoever

it, and at this point that looked like that might be bernie sanders, it's hard to give up. and the reason is because you need these landslide victories to claw back. is that how you're thinking tonight? >> we need landslide victories to get the lead, enough of them. and then to lose it, your opponent has to win by landslides. we ought to be careful about overly predicting things given the last 72 hours. >> absolutely. >> and if joe biden underperforms in his interviews and debate, maybe loses momentum. but i don't see a single place on the map left where i would comfortably say bernie sanders would get 58 or 60% of the votes in a two-way race. and there is a bunch of them for joe biden. so joe biden, in my view, had to survive today. he has done more than that. back in '08, we also were scared to death of super tuesday. we figured hillary could probably take a lead that we would then whittle away, but we took the lead. it gave us an advantage position. >> in super tuesday your campaign came out plus 13

delegates. there is a memo, the math is in our favor. we're not giving up this delegate lead. >> it seemed probably arrogant at the time. >> yes, it did. >> partially because people like you and steve really pay a lot of attention to it now. people weren't as up on delegates back then. we knew we were going to win ten in a row. biden may not win ten in a row. is he going to win that 60-40 against joe biden? i highly doubt it. and the other thing i'd look at today, if michael bloomberg drops out of the race in the next couple of day, would joe biden get every vote he got tonight? . no i would feel comfortable saying 75 to 80%. wherever biden is today, you've got the add that and that's where i think the math gets super challenging. biden went from almost out of the race 72 hours ago back to being the democratic front-runner. >> last point on this, david, you know, one of the sort of brilliant insights in that early campaign is blowouts are the most important thing, no matter the size of the state, much more important than closely fought

victories. if it's a huge state, maybe you net ten delegates. if you blow someone out in montana, maybe 80-20. >> on that super tuesday, if i recall was 22 states, hillary clinton won new jersey by 7 or 8 points. big state. she netted 11 delegates. we won the idaho caucuses. >> right. >> by 80-20 and netted 12. so we come out of that exchange plus one. >> right. and those margins are what to look for going forward. david plouffe, i want to bring into the conversation karine jean-pierre, msnbc political analyst, maria teresa kumar and joy reid. just a stunning sort of turn of events the last 72 hours. i have a lot of thoughts. >> let's unpack. >> so here are my -- there are three main thoughts, and then i'll throw it taupe you. one is we have a two-person race

effectively for who can get to 1991. that's the magic delegate number or go in with a real plurality. after tonight it's impossible to state -- elizabeth warren could do that. we're just talking delegates. number two, the sanders' inability to make sizable inroads in certain constituencies, particularly african american voters in the south particularly, particularly older african american voters. they were still winning black voters under 30 in south carolina. >> but not by much. >> but not by much. but that's a universe away from older voters. their demographic generational challenges continue. and the third thing is something that david said. there was a reason that the establishment failed to coalesce behind joe biden for a long time. they were worried about him and his performance on the trail. they -- this could have happened much earlier. >> yeah. >> they were waiting for some kind of signal. i am not convinced that all of

those fears are allayed, even in the wake of what we've seen. >> but -- right. they're not necessarily -- the only reason that michael bloomberg exists as a candidate the is that there were fears about joe biden and there were fears with joe biden sort of ebbing and not being strong that maybe either elizabeth warren or bernie sanders would get the nomination there was a lot of fear about that. so bloomberg even came into the race just because of that, right? he is there to be a back stop in case biden falls. so there is now really not a loft an argument for him because he was the back stop for biden. but i think there is a sense that people's original choice, a lot of black voters' original choice was biden. >> yep. >> and he is who they wanted originally. when he looked weak, they started to shop a little bit. but really, what this election has been about is white voters shopping and feeling the leisure to shop in the early states, maybe i'd like a young person, or a candidate of change. black voters don't shop. black voters want to win. black voters don't care about emotion. they don't care about feelings,

who they want. they care about who is going to win. they were willing to discard biden, as much as they liked him, when he looked weak. but he won that primary that decisively, and again, with young black voters, he didn't really lose that much. it told a loft black voters that it was safe to come back home to where they wanted to be anyway. >> i think it is a signal for a lot of folks that want to be pragmatic. to choose a candidate who can beat donald trump. it's not about revolution. it's about who can beat donald trump. and i think the challenge right now with bernie sanders is he is a bit stuck. he hasn't been able to grow that youth base he expected. you're looking at a lot of exit polling, and outside of california and nevada, you don't see a huge bump in youth participation, which is going to be a problem even for biden. because in order to win, they're going to need that. right now the person that has lost because elizabeth warren has stayed in the election so long has been bernie. so for him, what he wants is for her to drop out. and for biden, he wants her to stay in as long as possible.

>> that turnout story, karine, the argument from the sanders folks has always been we recognize we're trying to take an unconventional route here. what we will lose in certain parts of the democratic coalition as it exists we will more than make up for by building out a new part of the coalition that has been the argument. and so far the math has not borne that out. tonight we see virginia, huge turnout surge, but it's not a turnout surge to the benefit of sanders. >> no. >> the turnout surge we're seeing and record setting number, 1.3 million, that that's not -- they have not been able to deliver the votes that they were banking on delivering. >> and that's been the biggest problem with bernie in these last couple of contests that we've watched. look, biden was supposed to come into this night just to survive. and he thrived. you know, you're talking about virginia. virginia he had one field

office. he had one event, and he crushed it. >> he won five states tonight he didn't campaign in. >> north carolina, seven out of the eight last polls had him behind, and he won it. and it was one of those things where it was momentum beat organizing. momentum beat money. >> yes. >> which is unheard of. this is a night that we have never -- at least i have never seen before. >> the one thing that it reminds me of in recent -- fairly recent democratic party politics is john kerry in iowa. it was an incredibly unsettled race before iowa. the question was the exact same, who could beat george w. bush. and there was an ideological challenge from howard dean and a concern about dean's electability, and an array of forces, you guys are nuts if you nominate howard dean. maybe wesley clark. he is a general. what if we nominate a general? that will work. who do we got? john kerry wins iowa, and then it was dominance.

>> i worked on that campaign in an outside organization, and we watched it all go the wrong way from our point of view. >> in the end. >> in the end. >> right. i'm just talking about the primary. >> exactly. so the difference i think between biden and john kerry is john kerry was in a lot of ways sort of like michael bloomberg. he was an idea. he was the tape, how can you ask a man to be the last man who died in vietnam. as he went on and on and on, he showed a lot of weaknesses. all of biden's weaknesses are priced into joe biden, much the way they're priced into donald trump. there is not a way to change people's perception of him. he is what he is. he is obama's wingman. my kids that are for biden, have i two sons that are for biden. you're for biden, young people? you know who he is? obama's guy. they have nothing else that they need to ask. >> i had a conversation with a woman who was asking for my advice on who to vote. in the primaries. people want to know what the

right answer is. and what i said to her was, i said you should vote for the person you want to be president of the united states. and she said i want barack obama to be president of the united states. you just encapsulated a huge part of the democratic primary. >> to your point, the majority of voters tonight said they want an extension of obama's policies. >> although, we should also say that the ideological results are all over the place. 57% of texas democrats socialism, and medicare for all is winning in every state. >> you know who is concerned right now is the trump, is the fact that texas has all of the sudden become so blue and so extreme. that's what he is concerned about. >> let me make one note which you see right there. we are now projecting that joe biden will meet that 15% delegate threshold in the state of california which is huge. david plouffe, joy reid, thanks for staying up late. and i want you to stick around, because it's 1:17 in the morning

and you're watching super tuesday results like a gd addict. we've got more to come tonight. the latest reporting on what the warren and bloomberg campaigns are signaling right after this. don't go anywhere. ♪ limu emu & doug [ siren ] give me your hand! i can save you... lots of money with liberty mutual! we customize your car insurance so you only pay for what you need! only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ as parents of six, this network is one less thing i have to worry about. (vo) why the aceves family chose verizon. we all use our phones very differently. these two are always gaming and this one is always on facetime.

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no matter how many delegates

we win tonight, we have done something no one else thought was possible. in just three months, we have gone from 1% of the polls to being a contender for the democratic nomination for president. >> my name is elizabeth warren and i'm the woman who is going to beat donald trump. >> one of the big questions tonight is what happens now with the campaign of billionaire michael bloomberg. josh letterman is in west palm beach tonight with some reporting on that question. josh, what are you learning? >> well, chris, we started the night with bloomberg's campaign manager kevin cheeki, very optimistic telling us they suspected bloomberg would be viable in every single state competing here on super tuesday. obviously things did not turn out that way. michael bloomberg spoke here in west palm beach as the magnitude of joe biden's victory was becoming clear. then he got on a plane and went back to new york city where he

lives where campaign aides tell us that tomorrow morning, bloomberg will be huddling with his senior aides to plot a path forward and decide whether or not to stay in this race. we're told that no decisions have been made, but they are no longer standing behind this firm position of he is in it for long haul. he is staying in this race no matter what. i just spoke to a senior bloomberg campaign official just after midnight, chris, who said, look, things were looking really good for them up until a few days ago with their internal polling showing that they were in very strong shape. they say the proof of that is that in states that had a lot of early and mail-in voting like colorado and utah, states where bloomberg did pick up delegates tonight that he did much better. but that it all came down to this combination of the south carolina primary, the endorsement for jim clyburn, klobuchar and buttigieg getting out of the race and putting their support behind him and the

tide started to move quickly. what you don't hear is any articulated rationale for bloomberg to move forward and try to get a majority or a strong plurality of delegates. no final decisions have been made. all of this setting the stage for quite a moment of reckoning for bloomberg when he sits down with his aides tomorrow in new york city to decide what to do next. >> that's going to be fascinating. josh lederman, thank you very much. nbc's alley fatale, what's the latest from the warren camp after this evening? >> this campaign has pushed forward to super tuesday as part of their strategy, hoping a mix of a winnowing field and their strategy of trying to pick up as many delegates as possible would carry them through to what they've called the final play at the convention in milwaukee. what became clear this week is that the warren campaign thought that their only path was one that went right through the convention, pushing through with how many many delegates they could amass. and super tuesday was a key moment for that.

the other part of this is that massachusetts is a state that elizabeth warren is from. that's her home state. she has won statewide there twice and won in her senate campaigns. at the same time, though, her campaign seemed willing to cede the home state advantage, not going up on the airwaves with their own ads, although a new pac that was supporting her was hundreding a few million worth of ads in boston. her campaign hasn't seen her campaigning since the end of the year right at the end of 2019. they seemed to cede that ground, instead hope thanksgiving could overwrite the narrative of her potentially losing in her home state with her picking up enough delegates across the map elsewhere to make that a worthwhile play. and i want to set the scene for you in detroit. her rally tonight was in michigan, a state that doesn't vote until next tuesday. sort of pressing the point that they are in this for the long haul. listen to the way she talked about the state of the race tonight there was no mention of the word super tuesday on the ground. listen. >> here's my advice.

cast a vote that will make you proud. cast a vote from your heart. and vote for the person you think will make the best president of the united states. >> and other than that, chris, if you were in this rally tonight with elizabeth warren and you forgot that it was super tuesday, you can almost be forgiven. it felt almost like an alternate reality, like all of the results were playing out, but here in this warehouse in detroit, elizabeth warren was simply campaigning on with blinders. i will say this is a pretty tight-lipped group of people she has around her in her campaign. but at the same time, if you read the tea leaves and you know what their strategy was and how badly that strategy failed tonight, you have to imagine they're reaccessing what their path forward looks like. tomorrow she was already planning to be home in

massachusetts. so we'll be going there tomorrow and sort of tracking this as the hours continue to tick by. >> thank you. we're going to talk what the fates of those two campaigns that did not come into the top of the leaderboard right there at the end of super tuesday, that's michael bloomberg and elizabeth warren. we're going talk about that right after this break. don't go anywhere. don't go anywhere. i saved hundreds on my car insurance when i switched to geico. this is how it made me feel. it was like that feeling when you go to high-five a coworker, and you do a perfect high-five. everyone is really excited for you because it was such a great high-five. and then... ...the boss comes in. and she wants one too. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. fifteen minutes could save you i've always been faand still going for my best, even though i live with a higher risk of stroke due to afib not caused by a heart valve problem.

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all right. a very, very big night. we're now in the early morning. you see the texas results. we've got 77% and i guess our characterization at this moment is that it is too close to call, though biden winning there by about a 50,000 total votes. of course, the thing to keep your eyes on throughout the night are the estimates of pledge delegates. delegates are what matter. 228 up for grabs in the state of texas. joining me now at the table to talk about what these super tuesday results mean going forward, joshua johnson, karine jean-pierre, maria teresa kumar, the president of voto latino, and sam seder, host of the majority vote podcast. josh, let's start on bloomberg. to me, you've got a division tonight between two tiers of candidates. you've clearly got sanders and biden who have wracked up big amounts of delegates gains and have a possible path forward. and then you've got bloomberg and warren. you heard josh lederman's report reporting that bloomberg is

going to reassess. how do you understand what role he has played this campaign or will play? >> bloomberg's role in the campaign, the more that i watch it, the more i want to interview him and ask him, what did you get out of this? you could have spent all of this money in a superpac or something else to support somebody who had a viable path to the nomination, and yet you in your kind of charles foster cainesque way decided this was your job to do. he held his event at the convention center which is literally across the street from a public high school that is one of the top schools in the country which would have been a perfect backdrop. it's a performing arts high school. it is a half mile away from a historically black neighborhood that is low income but very rich, which would have been a wonderful backdrop considering that we've all made it clear that black voters are the key to the democratic party. he could have held it in miami, in little havana or little

haiti. so i'm just -- i don't know what he thought he was going to get out of this, and now that he's pretty much going to have to drop and has said the only path forward him for him is a brokered convention is to take it to the convention, i would love to get in his head and ask was this worth it? >> sam, i find that the bloomberg boom/bust cycle sort of hilarious and head-snapping because there was a period where michael bloomberg is going to save everyone, and michael bloomberg is riding to the rescue with his billions. and now a lot of those same folks who are very invested in sanders not getting the nomination are now michael bloomberg, you've got get away because you're taking votes away from joe biden, which system will certainly the case. >> well, i think there was a lot of people around michael bloomberg who saw an opportunity to make a lot of money. and frankly, he was paying -- >> a lot of second boats. >> i think that's really the story. i mean, i think people reporting that he is questioning his investment. i'm not sure what the question is. the investment failed. the idea that they -- and

frankly, tom steyer as well. they made a very good argument that we have a fundamental problem in this country, that someone can go out and spend that kind of money in the same way that i go out and maybe buy a blender or something. >> right. >> and yet that money could have done an incredible amount of good, whether it's from a political context or from a societal context. it is -- it's shocking to see someone on that type -- >> the argument on the other side, right, and i hope people don't overlearn this lesson, because i think it's important to recognize the way that campaigns work at the presidential level are totally different than when they work at every other level. gets the most amount of attention, the most amount of earned money, those kind of things. state races don't work that way. ultimately in the end, karine, one of the lessons is bloomberg couldn't buy his way. we ran a big experiment, which is what happens -- political science experiment. drop $500 billion. see what it does in the polling. there a point of diminish

returns? the answer is yes, there are. >> that's exactly right. this was a test that the american people were under, to be quite frank, which was can someone buy an election. because i believe what he was doing was undemocratic. like this is not how you do things, and failed. it failed miserably, at least after tonight. >> i think part of it the reason that it didn't take off is he didn't perform well on the debate stage. >> no, he didn't. >> the moment people had the opportunity to see him, it failed. and that's when people took a second look. but i think that the reason he entered was because he is oh, my gosh, no one is coalescing the moderate democrats. the moment the moderate democrats walked off the stage, everybody did coalesce and they did what they said they were going to do. we actually want a pragmatic candidate. >> the other person who is running in the distant tiers, elizabeth warren, who

defenestrated. sam, i'm curious. what do you think of her path forward? >> i don't think there is one. >> there is going to be a lot of fresh on her from the sanders camp. >> i think the question is does she want joe biden to be president? she has written very strongly, forcefully, she has spoken forcefully about joe biden's role in the bankruptcy bill. in many ways that was her origin story in terms of getting into politics. it is -- you know, there is no intervening event between now and next tuesday where there is going to be 10 other states. the next debate is a couple of days later there can be an intervening debate. she can come out and did what pete buttigieg and amy klobuchar did for joe biden which is to give lend her trust. i don't necessarily buy the idea that she prevented him from getting certain votes tonight. but she has a certain credibility, and she can come out and say bernie sanders is a

viable candidate, and there is an ideological fight to be had that has been avoided up to this point i think within the democratic primary. >> when you think about sort of trajectory and slingshot that happened to joe biden obviously, sanders now coming out of tonight down maybe 60, 70 needs something like that. because there needs to be a little bit of like the video game hitting the rocket pack. and that is the one thing on the board as a possibility in that respect. everyone is going to stick around. i want to talk about the campaigns of the two democratic front-runners right after this. you ever wish you weren't a motaur? sure. sometimes i wish i had legs like you. yeah, like a regular person. no. still half bike/half man, just the opposite. oh, so the legs on the bottom and motorcycle on the top?

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recognize the delegate awared number is the one to watch. but it now looks like joe biden will come out with a vote victory in texas, and probably a net a few delegates over bernie sanders as well. nbc news correspondent mike memoli is with the joe biden campaign in los angeles, and mike, i got to imagine it's a pretty merry mood in the biden camp this evening. >> yeah, to say the least. remember, this is the campaign that three tuesdays ago was licking their wounds after fifth place finish in new hampshire. but they argued that their theory of the case, which is that when more diverse electorates had a chance to weigh in that joe biden would show some success. they managed to do i think three big things tonight. one is defy expectations. remember, chris, the expectation tonight was certainly that bernie sanders would have the delegate lead after tonight, but that joe biden's task was to limit how much he was going to be able to build that lead, and an insurmountable lead. texas is the icing on the cake

at this point, a state where it's not an accident, that's where biden campaigned yesterday. that's where they had those surprise endorsement appearances by mayor pete buttigieg and amy klobuchar. the second thing they've done tonight is to sort of reframe joe biden as the candidate of enthusiasm. that's the line from the biden campaign tonight. a shot at the bernie sanders argument that when there is a big turnout, then he does well. well, the biden campaign pointing out not just when there is a significant african american population that he'll do well. that's been the case, clearly. but look at virginia, a state where there is significant boost for the former vice president among suburban districts. and that's sort of their argument, that he will do well among the base constituency, which is african americans, and also among suburban voters that are going to be so key to the general election. and then i think speaking of those endorsements, the last thing he has done, joe biden wants to build upon his coalition, and that's why you saw him and his campaign so eager to say that to team amy,

to team pete, to team beto, this is your victory as well. joe biden is very good at being gracious, and some of those endorsement events yesterday he was actually probably more full of praise for the people endorsing him than they were for him. and that's an easy for joe biden who wants to try to continue to wrap this up, this nomination contest quickly, if he can, knowing that bernie sanders is likely not go to go anywhere, but to build that coalition around him and make it easier for the supporters of some of the other candidates to rally and wrap their arms around him. >> mike memoli, thank you. i want to go to shaquille brewster who is in burlington, vermont, where he has been following the bernie sanders campaign. shaquille, i'm very curious about how the campaign is thinking about the results tonight. obviously, they probably going to come out of tonight down some delegates write is not where they wanted to be. how are they thinking what the future holds for them? >> they're saying the night is still young, despite it being so late right now. they're saying look ahead to california. and as we watch those votes and

those delegates continue to be allocated from california, but chris you said there it. it's clear that this is not the night the campaign wanted to have. the marker that they set for themselves, and we heard it all today from his campaign manager to his senior adviser jeff weaver is they wanted to come out of today with a clear lead in delegates. they wanted to come out with -- you even heard language of insurmountable lead. not today, but that was some of the language you heard in the weeks after and days after that big win in nevada. they are not getting that tonight. and there is a recognition that they're not getting that, despite his win in california, despite them focusing heavily on a state like texas, and despite them spending a lot of time and resources in a state like north carolina. and that was one area that i really noted how quickly that call came in north carolina. this is a state they've really invested in. they had ads up in north carolina before they had ads up in south carolina, which came before super tuesday. this is a state where they had many of their surrogates go.

senator sanders had at least four trips to the state of north carolina. for that to come in so quickly as it did, they really had hope there's. they saw it as in 2016 a state where senator sanders was -- it was one of his best performing southern states. he still lost it by about 14 poin point,s, but compared to hillary clinton, it was one of his best performing state. didn't make u there. he was in massachusetts just in the past couple of days. he was in salt lake city, yult, in minnesota. he expected to do better in these states. the campaign says let's wait until the dell cats come in, let's see where this lands. they're definitely not in the position,000 they are signalling headed into super tuesday. chris? >> shaquille, brewster, thank you so much. now hunkering down for the next stretch. it will be an intensely fought one. we're going to talk about that right after this break. don't go anywhere. nywhere. want to brain better?

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and we are going to defeat the most dangerous president in the history of this country. >> just a few days ago, the pundits declared the campaign dead. and then south carolina, they had something to say about it. and when we got to super tuesday, we were told it would be over. well, it may over for the other guy. >> bernie sanders and joe biden, one of those two men is overwhimgly likely to be the miami for the democratic party after tonight's super tuesday or this morning now i guess it is. i want to start with the sanders came pain and how they're going to think about this. i want to start with you.

they have not -- if you compare the number in states with african-american voters in states like south carolina, alabama, those states, they have not made much inroads. it's not as if they haven't tried. they understood they have to do better. they have tried. it's not like oh, we don't care. they have tried. but they have not produced it yet. >> you're right. they have been pretty amazing with their on the ground operation. it's been diverse. >> yep. j they put money into it. and it just hasn't really given them anything so the thing that they have to do is they have to expand the base. we keep saying that but we have not seen that. in the next week from today, if they don't do that, they are going to be in a more -- in a world of pain even more. >> particularly a state like mississippi. it's interesting to me that they have made significant inroads with latino voters. >> yes.

>> he is week on hillary clinton. >> this is what's interesting. i think the reason he's had such a hard time making inroads in the african-american community is they are older voters. >> right. >> it's an age factor. that's a great point. >> you're going to have four million young latinos voting for the first time. >> that's a great point. that's what we're talking about. we're talking about a generational split because of the balance of different ethnic groups. great point. >> if you knock on the door and no one else has, you're more per secretaryive. that's why bide seven going to have to actually create that coalition in a different way. you have get with bernie sanders, he hasn't been able to communicate the african-american community because of the generational gap.

>> the generation gap is the most enduring gap. it's shocking the difference. under 30, over 65. you're talking bernie winning 65 hsh 30 and then the inverse for voters. that's the biden base versus the sanders base. >> the young is evolving. after what happened at parkland in particular and with the rise for march for our lives. the nature of young people and political advocacy whether it's david hogg from parkland or gretta tuneberg, it has a different feel to it where i don't know we can predict what the young voters are going to do. i think a few like the match for our lives group are very aggressive apolitical and nonpartisan saying you don't get any of our sign-offs. you have to do what we're asking

for. the people who follow her and like the fact that she's willing to stand for an issue. a even if they do i'm going to be axis to see how young voters decide who i want. do i go with the party my pashs went with, do i go with the party i think is least corrupt or who's going to meet my needs? nobody? ok. see you in november. >> they came out in droves in the midterm election. they're going to start new yorking on the door. he was the least liked candidate but everybody downballot was what got him in office. >> one of the things i think sanders campaign needs to do is point to this dynamic, because

the race clearly is about electability. >> yes. >> whether -- and i don't know if there's a formula in which the voters can define this. i think they got signals from people and i think there's a lot of people out there just like tell me who's going to win. >> yes. >> i think everybody's -- >> i think what we're taking about is who's going to -- >> my point is bernie sanders can make that argument because he's getting the low propensity voters. the ones who come out for joe biden are the ones we're talking about. there are voters out there who stayed at home. bahama to no one voters in 2016. those people need to be mobilized. it's not -- it's not not clear from the data. >> no, it's not. >> but the -- >> we know that younger voters, that la teppo voters tend to be lower propensity voters in the past and if bernie sanders is

bringing them out, that is a compelling argument that he could bring out voters that otherwise wouldn't be there. >> that has been the conceit of the sanders campaign all the way through. but they have to show that, right? >> can i say quickly. in south carolina joe biden did well with younger black voters. that was the thing that blew this out of the water. >> two points under 30. >> but it's so small. it's so small. >> the one thing -- >> yeah. >> if the party's going to be unified, there needs to be grace in either direction. >> i agree. >> there is a lot of feeling i encounter of people that, oh, like they only the sanders supporter they know are their niece at vasser or people on their twitter feed. what do they have to complain about. like the financial crisis was a gem rational trauma. >> it was. >> lower salary, who has higher

levels of student debt. these are not invented issues, there is a reason -- >> this is also -- >> voters remember what happened to bernie sanders in 2016 including some who say ok i'll vote for him now, but i don't know if he'll make it to november. >> that does it for me. i'm chris hayes. find me tonight in my normal 8:00 p.m. hour. stick around. stick around s or psoriatic arthritis. when considering another treatment, ask about xeljanz xr, a once-daily pill for adults with moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis or active psoriatic arthritis for whom methotrexate did not work well enough. it can reduce pain, swelling, and significantly improve physical function. xeljanz can lower your ability to fight infections like tb; don't start xeljanz if you have an infection. taking a higher than recommended dose of xeljanz for ra can increase risk of death.

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good morning. welcome to the continuing live super tuesday coverage. here in new york. 2:00 a.m. in the east. 11:00 p.m. out west. we're live all night here on. moe polls are closed. there are people in lines in california. results still uncertain in that key state at this hour. in a sweeping reset of the 2020 democratic rates. former vice president biden