fauci, well, he spoke yesterday, taking it all in stride. >> it is a bit bizarre. i don't fully understand it, cannot figure out in my whooild wildest dreams why they would want to do that, but i think they realize that was not a prudent thing to do. i can't explain peter navarro, he's in a world himself so i don't want to go there. >> joe is off, by the way, but willie, great reaction from dr. fauci. brushing it off. the bottom line is he has credibility. >> he's been saying things like this the last several days. he said all the talk from the white house, the reporting we've been doing that shows the white house is openly going after dr. fauci just reflects poorly on them, that's the way dr. fauci said it. you wonder how long he can continue to do that before he races more ire from president

trump, despite the fact the aides are trying to keep president trump away from dr. fauci. we saw a shakeup in president trump's re-election campaign. campaign manager brad parscale has been replaced. we'll show the polls in a moment. but first let's bring in jonathan lemire of the associated press. obviously brad parscale has had a lot of eyes on him the last couple months because of the lagging poll numbers, the way the president is doing. he's not the candidate, he's not going to change much stepping aside. bill stepian steps into the roll now. what's behind ousting brad parscale and moving him back into his old job? >> a little problem there with the audio. >> we don't have his audio.

clearly this was president trump looking at the polls and saying we have to change something he knows what's happening out there, despite the bluster he shows about the prospects, he's looking at the same polls we're looking at. >> remember when this started, tulsa, when that small crowd of people squashed together, sweating and waiting for trump to come on the stage, the painful gaping hole in the arena in tulsa along the second level, they could not fill it. and boy did twitter go on fire that day, saying good-bye brad. remember the scathing ad by the lincoln project about brad standing out, one is brad's a star, making all this money. the lincoln project tweaking donald trump where it hurts where someone outshines him. all of it added up to many believing the next steps would

be that brad parscale brad parscale would take a hit. he's been pushed down. the bottom line is the polls are painful for donald trump. joe biden holds an 11 point advantage over president trump nationally. according to the latest wall street journal poll, biden at this time sits now at 51%. up 2 points. donald trump's support slid to 40%. down two. joe biden has the votes from black and latino voters, voters age 18-34, and white women voters. president trump's overall job approval is only 42% approving while 56% disapprove. on his handling of the coronavirus, 37% approve while

59% disapprove. can you imagine what they're thinking in florida right now? precious florida, which you need to win, is right now in the middle of an incredible surge of coronavirus cases. on his handling of race relations, 33% approve while 63% disapprove. we'll get to the latest poll in just a moment. steve kornacki joins us this morning. steve, i wanted to talk to you about exactly what these polls mean at this time in the race, because, of course, back in 2016, a lot happened between this time and voting day, although early voting starts in a matter of weeks. so what exactly do these polls mean? obviously they don't say exactly what's going to happen? but what can we garner from them? >> there's a couple ways to look at it. number one you're right, there is time left here and the world can change quickly. we've seen it in the last couple months. let's see what the future holds.

to put it in perspective, if you look at the last three presidents running for re-election, obama in 2012, george w. bush in 2004, bill clinton in 1996, i went and looked what was the poll at the same time, middle of july, closest to this period. each one of them had a slight lead or in clinton's case a significant lead but each one was leading at this point and each one was reelected. donald trump is in a different place than the last three presidents seeking re-election at this point. all of them won, all of them were ahead in the polls, trump is not just down, he's down double digits, not just in our poll. you've seen significant distance between trump and biden in all polls for a long time. so if you want to get a comparison right now for what trump's numbers look like for a president running for re-election. the comparison that jumps out is

george h.w. bush, 1992, the last president to run for re-election and lose. the last one-term president. it was at this point, middle of july, 1992 when bill clinton zoomed ahead in the lead, got the lead and never lost it. i'm seeing right now something that resembles bush '92 than any president after him who won a second term. yes, there's still time left but i think it's significant that there's the biden lead for a period of time now. >> is there any cross tab that jumps out to you? i'm looking at women, for example, where joe biden has a 23 point lead on the president of the united states. is there something in those numbers that tells you more than that top line national referendum number? >> i think the way to look at it is where is the movement here?

looking at 2016 when trump was just able to get elected where's the movement, when you put the trump advantage among white voters, trump is leading, in our poll trump is leading by 7 points among white voters. in 2016, trump won the white vote by 20 points. that's a large demographic, like two thirds a little bit more of the electorate. so an advantage of 20 points hack whittled down to 7 points. he leads among noncollege degree whites, a lead, 57-35. but in 2016 that advantage for trump with that demographic was like 40 points. so it's a big lead on paper but not nearly as big as it was in 2016. you look at the white voters with a college degree, that's a huge shift where biden has a 15

point advantage in our poll. a group that was historically republican group. it had been moving to democrats. it seemed competitive in 2016 now it's blowout for joe biden. that's consistent with what we've been talking about since the 2018 midterms where you saw one suburban area abandon trump's republican party and move to democratic party. >> let's look at the latest quinnipiac poll showing joe biden leading president trump by 15 points nationally. biden stands at 52%, up three points since last month. trump at 37% has fallen four points since june. this poll has trump's approval at 36%. down six points from last month. his disapproval is up 5 points, sitting at 60%. joe biden also leads president trump on several key issues,

including who voters trust to handle a crisis, 57% to 38%. who can best handle health care, 58% to 35. handling the coronavirus response, 59% to 35. and who can best handle racial inequality, 62 to 30%. and half of voters believe that joe biden would do a better job handling the economy than president trump. 45% said they believe trump could do a better job. jonathan lemire let's go into what's happening inside the campaign now that we have the audio and looking at the polls as a backdrop. it's not just the numbers themselves, it's the trends. >> it appears the same folks who hacked twitter yesterday got my audio at the top of the hour. apologies there. first in terms of the campaign shakeup. as an adviser put it to me late

last night, brad parscale's fate was sealed the moment president trump stepped onto the stage in tulsa and saw the sea of empty seas. brad parscale said that more than a million requests came in for the rally, and, of course, only 6,000 showed. trump had complained privately that he didn't like how much attention parscale was getting, that he was making money off the president's own name. this is only his second campaign. he's close to jared kushner, he's the one who brought brad parscale in to run the digital operation for the trump campaign, which was successful the last time around. in recent weeks more other senior advisers have been brought in, brad parscale's responsibilities were diminished. and yesterday it was made

official what was rye moumored long time. he's still on the job in part because getting rid of him would be so difficult with his hands in the digital campaign, but the campaign manager is jared kushner, make no mistake, it's been all along, still is now, just not in title. >> john you led me to my next question, isn't this just moving pieces around the board when at the end of the day we know president trump himself with guidance from jared kushner is the one running the campaign. what do they feel will be different about the president's campaign? what will change in the numbers that steve kornacki walked us through with bill stepping in as opposed to brad parscale? >> it's unclear what will change. in the last week or two, bill was the one saying to go more negative on biden.

outside of the sleepy joe nickname, they were wondering why the president hadn't opened fire. that might be changing after what we saw in the rose garden this week. i don't think people in trump world expect things to change all that much. the president, his inner circle, notes they had a bunch of leadership changes on the campaign in 2016, that brought in steve bannon and kellyanne conway. but it's not sure what will really change inside the building. and certainly inside the campaign there is great concern about the polls you guys have started to go through. the national polls are relatively irrelevant. they know 15 points is a big enough number that could spook other republicans, donors, that could spook some in the senate and the house to maybe start distancing themselves from the

president. the margins in the battleground states aren't getting smaller. there is an awareness here they're starting to run out of time. under four months to election day or so but six or seven weeks until early voting starts. let's look at the latest nbc news wall street journal poll. biden leads by 12 points, 52 to 40% across battleground states. biden leads trump by six points in arizona, 51/45%. seven points in florida, 50 to 43. by eight points in pennsylvania. 50 to 42. we'll show you another one in a moment that has a wider biden lead here, by six points in wisconsin and michigan representatively, 48 to 42. and one point in north carolina,

47 to 46%. a new poll out of pennsylvania shows the president down by 13 points. biden up 53% to 40%. these numbers look more troubling for the president when looking at key age demographics. biden takes home the age of 18 to 49, 60 to 29% that vote. as well as the 65 and older group. wow, 52 to 42%. the president does lead in ages 50 to 64, 46% to biden's 43%. i want to bring in aarerin hane focused on women, politics and policy. what are these numbers telling us about the trump presidency itself, perhaps the pandemic and the president's ability to handle a crisis? >> good morning, mika, it's good

to be with you. i think what it tells us is a couple of things. you have a majority of americans saying they disapprove of the handling of coronavirus and racism, the two main issues dominating our national conversation and many american's lived experience right now, specifically on the coronavirus. what was interested from that poll, three out of four voters say they are wearing masks, when they're shopping, working, being around other people. that's an increase from last month. what that says to me is that voters are looking for leadership that is really concerned about their health and safety. you see enthusiasm, people being very interested in this election. almost eight in ten americans paying close attention and with voters across the country, many of whom are still at home or largely at home during the pandemic and something that could come back up as we head

into the fall and, you know, we see a second wave, folks are going to be tuned in to this election. what is interesting, you have a majority of voters still approving of the president's handling of the economy, which does tend to be a top issue priority for voters. the thing in 2016 that allowed republican voters to major look other issues they had with candidate trump but it'll be interesting to see if that's the case this year. >> and that nbc poll had it flipped on the economy. said that they like joe biden on the economy better. steve kornacki if you look at the top line number here about how the country is feeling about the way things are going on the nbc poll, 72% of americans think we're on the wrong track. only 19% believe the country is on the right track, 1-9, 19%. you can see why, because of

coronavirus, what they're seeing in the streets of the country, how does this president recover from a number like that? as you look back through history, have we seen a president re-elected with a 19% right track number? >> that's when we get to 1992 when the economy and change took hold. i think the numbers underscore how much of this 11 point lead for biden, really how much it is driven by donald trump. it's the right track, wrong track number, the overall job approval number for president trump right now, the coronavirus and race relations, the two issues that have taken center stage in the past two months and he has terribly negative numbers on both of the questions. the economy in our poll he's doing quite well on, but that's not what's driving the conversation, does not seem to be what's driving people's votes right now. we asked folks would you be open

to supporting trump, would you be open to supporting biden? 50%, exactly half, said they're closed to voting for donald trump, they're not going to. there's no circumstance they're going to. fsh biden the number was 37. what's striking to me, throwing the numbers out there, when we did the popularity question, do you have a positive or negative view of the candidates, biden didn't do well. there's not a ground swell of popularity and appeal for biden in our poll. it is the negativity for president trump as incumbent. i look at the positive/negative numbers for biden, the fact he's not that visible right now clearly working in his favor. >> absolutely. i think the basement approach, which trump makes fun of, focuses his message, his empaty, focuses the fact that he knows what he's talking about and

there aren't these distractions of him in crowds having a good time with people that might get misunderstood, trying to connect with people too much. it puts him on a different level optically for those that don't know him, seeing him for the first time, comparing that visual to trump, it's helpful. now to the latest with the coronavirus, specifically looking at florida, which is a huge worry. hospitals are struggling with shortages of icu beds, can you believe this? yesterday the state hit the mark of more than 300,000 covid-19 cases reported since the start of the pandemic. according to the agency for health care administration, 54 hospitals in florida now have zero beds available if had their intensive care units. another 40 hospitals have less than 10% available capacity in their icus. in miami-dade one of the state's

top hot spots and most populous county, ten of the hospitals there reported no available icu beds. on tuesday, the state recorded 133 deaths, marking its second deadliest day since the start of the pandemic. let's bring in mayor carlos hernandez of hialeah, florida. thank you for being on. tell us what you need, what is happening where you are, and what are the numbers telling you? what are they telling you about the weeks ahead? >> it's a dire situation right now. the numbers continue to rise and they be based, as you stated the hospitals are reaching maximum capacity and we need all the help we can get from the state, from the federal government. we're behind. we're behind. and for a long time there's been mixed messages from the state, the county level, not everybody

has been on the same page and that has confused a lot of the public and now we are seeing what's happening. so we have to come together and work together because, honestly, from the federal level down to the local level there has been very little communication. i can tell you from my city, the second largest in miami-dade county, the sixth largest city in the state of florida. i've had no contact with the governor since this, and again, that's just unacceptable right now. right now we're in dire need right now. >> dire need. we are months into this pandemic and florida hospitals in the miami area are in dire need, they don't have beds, they don't have capacity. mr. mayor, it is very clear if you look at the science that this could have been mitigated, that we don't need to be here. is that what it was, the leadership? the mixed messaging that has put

miami in this dire situation? if so, can you please right now make a plea to your people as to what exactly they shown doing so we can mitigate this virus? >> first of all, we have to take personal responsibility, no doubt about that. we have to take care of each other, and we all have to wear masks in public places, we should all be respecting social distancing, we should all be washing hands constantly. that's the message we should have been sending from the top down, instead parts of the state, people still have to wear masks and a lot of the state politicians said it's not that serious. actually, the locals mayors here in miami-dade county had to come together, try to come up with solutions by ourselves because we're getting very little support at the state or county level. so the mixed messages have really -- it's the main cost why we're in the situation right

now. >> mayor hernandez, it's willie geist, thanks for being on. we've reported about the icu bed shortage across florida, particularly south florida. what do the hospitals look like in your city? >> it's getting worse every day. we're at the breaking point that i think in the next couple of days or weeks, maximum, we are going to be in really, really dire needs. we're there now. we're there now. every day the numbers are going up and they're not slowing down. and again a lot of talk, but more action. we do need more help from the state, from the federal government. >> mayor carlos hernandez, thank you for being on the show. we're praying for the people in the miami area and for florida. still ahead on "morning joe," a major hack targets more than a does izen high profile

twitter accounts. the social media site said it was more than likely a coordinated social engineering attack. we'll talk about that, especially with the elections coming. you're watching "morning joe" we'll be right back. atching "mo we'll be right back. think about how you'll get there. and now that you can lease or buy a new lincoln remotely or in person... discovering that feeling has never been more effortless. accept our summer invitation to get 0% apr on all 2020 lincoln vehicles. only at your lincoln dealer. ♪ ♪

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we are learning a lot more about a major security breach at twitter, dozens of high profile accounts, including bill gates, barack obama, elon musk, were hacked yesterday afternoon for more than two hours. the hackers scammed users to send bitcoin to an address, which managed to receive $15,000. twitter removed the tweets shortly after being posted. it also shutdown verified accounts, like the national weather service.

last night twitter released a statement tweeting we detected what we believe to be a coordinated social engineering attack by people who successfully targeted some of our employees with access to internal systems and tools. we're looking into what other systems they were able to get into. the fbi said they were aware of the incident. let's bring in former fbi agent clint watts. i go to the election, clint, and i worry. talk to us about what you can you tell us what this means. >> i'm sure, you, mika, me, everybody that saw that former vice president biden's twitter account, president obama, imagine if it's election day. there's information about

polling players or it smears or maligns a candidate, this is a natural thing to worry about. i'm sure this is on the mind of everyone trying to defend the election. even worse if you're a main stream media outlet doing reporting on vote counts. think of the implications here, if someone put out false number s, it would send the world into chaos. it happened so far in front of the election, silver lining, that twitter has the ability to investigate this and prepare for the election day and let's hope they can stop something like this from happening again. >> it's willie, let's step back. what happened? i know it's early, less than 24 hours ago, but how could someone seize such control of such prominent twitter accounts? could they do it for facebook?

obviously facebook was used heavily in 2016? >> great question and super important. usually we see one individual person's account will get hacked, they lose control of the account. this is clear from the start that something from the inside of twitter had been broken into. so if they had the power to take over controls, is this an ins e insider attack or something they gained access to twitter systems and explains why twitter wasn't able to quickly remove that account. so the question is how quickly can twitter respond, keep control of it. the thing we forget about twitter is it has the largest reach in the world for news and information. all of us, i rely on it, everybody relies on it, the president uses it as a diplomatic tool, as a way to get

out his message. just yesterday he tweeted in far si for the first time trying to connect with the people in iran. imagine if one of those tweets had been changed just a little bit. there could be events all down the road that are devastating. twitter i'm sure is working to get on top of this. we had a fire drill basically for election day. and no matter what the scam is, 1% will still click on something or send bitcoin, it raised 115,000 or whatever mika said in the beginning and shows that people do fall for these things on scale. >> clint, are you confident this was, in fact, a bitcoin scam? i've heard speculation this could have been a test drive for someone as you say for the election to see how many people they could get to, how much they could shutdown twitter, how much chaos they could create.

if not a test drive, could some other operation look at this and say, boy, we could disrupt things here. >> it's possible this could be a diversion, you conduct some of this attack to see if you can get in the systems but maybe drop out somewhere else or stay inside a system and wait to use it at another point. it was curious that most of the accounts were companies and celebrities. but the politicians it was on the decisive side, could mean something or nothing. i think twitter has to lock it down and look through the scenarios. i don't think this was some subterfuge behind the scenes but it could be difficult to know. the whole idea of the attacks is to get a placement inside systems. so lurking in that system and then springing it later is something we all need to be worried about. for us in the public and media,

we need to be cognizant of what we're seeing from the platforms and how much we react to it. >> steve kornacki, you had some comments yesterday about this, having the place to yourself. i'm worried about how this could be one of these surprises before the election. what were your thoughts when you heard the story? >> i think my main thought was, wow, it's easier than i would have thought to get into some of those accounts. i guess i have maybe a layman's perspective on this where i kind of assume if it's barack obama's account, joe biden's account, somebody of that stature, prominent, there must be 9,000 extw exf extra layers of security. and the fact that it was all these high profile people at once, to me was a demonstration of how -- no idea how they did it but a demonstration that apparently it is less difficult

than i thought it was to get at the most prominent accounts on there. >> steve kornacki thank you very much. clint watts, thank you as well. coming up, this week the president's daughter, ivanka trump urged america's almost 30 million unemployed workers to, quote, find something new. our next guest calls it "let them eat cake" economics and says marie antoinette could hardly do better. ed luce joins us with his latest column next on "morning joe." s t column next on "morning joe. ♪ ♪ ♪ the open road is open again. and wherever you're headed, choice hotels is there. book direct

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joe." joining us national editor at the financial times edward luce. you're out with a new column entiled ivanka trump's "let them eat cake economics".

her calling for students and workers to, quote, find something new. tone deaf is a word that comes to mind, probably worse than that. reminds me when the auto industry was going through its problem and people were telling workers to learn to code. you had ivanka trump a couple days ago, standing with the can of goya beans encouraging people to buy beans. where does the find something new campaign come from and what does it say about the administration? >> well, ivanka trump has been from the beginning given the role of job enforcement. earlier this year as the coronavirus was hitting america, the national association of manufacturers awarded her the annual alexander hamilton award

for contribution to american manufacturing, which i redubed the order of sycophant award. but the latest announcement this week, this find something new advise that the first daughter is giving to unemployment americans is particularly tone deaf because it implies the reason they're unemployed is because they lack skills. when 20.5 million americans lost their jobs in april, it wasn't because they suddenly deskilled. it was because the economy went on lockdown, it was because we wanted them not to work, because we wanted to flatten the curve. so there are more than 20 million people still unemployment in this country, this advice is not the advice they want to be hearing. people don't like to be blamed for being out of a job. i think what they would prefer

to be hearing is what ivanka trump and her father's administration is not doing, which is pushing for a new stimulus package. as you know, the benefits run out at the end of this month. a new stimulus package to tide people through this continuing, rising outbreak that is going to necessitate more lockdown in the coming winter months, that's what people wanted to hear and she didn't say it. >> errin haines has something for you. >> i want to ask you, because if we get into the way back machine, ivanka trump was seen by many american women in particular as a role model for professional and career women who were balancing work and family yet she hasn't been

particularly outspoken to women during this pandemic, to mothers navigating child care or maybe carrying for a loved one, all while trying to do or keep their job in an office setting or in an essential role. what do you think the impact of that is going to be? how does that go to the broader theme of the trump administration trying to look on the bright side of this pandemic when many americans are suffering? >> your point is absolutely right. she was looked at as an advocate inside her father's white house for issues like parental leave, child care at work, and other issues that the peter navarros of this world wouldn't ever dream of. and she's made some, i think, fairly token efforts to raise the issues without getting results. that's no different to this find something new announcement this

week. it wasn't accompanied by anything new from the white house. it was purely vice without money for trading, subsidies for people to go back to work, something that would benefit people, essential workers who we need would be hazard pay for teachers. her father's administration is calling for schools to reopen. they need money to have better ventilation systems, better sanitation routines and protocols and to reward teachers for doing what is an essential job. none of that was forthcoming. i'm afraid to say, even though she's probably one of the least unsympathetic characters inside her father's white house, she is more of sort of pr face than she is a person of action. >> ed luce thank you very much. the new piece is on line this

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the list of retailers now requiring all customers to wear face coverings is growing. the latest to jump behind the move is the largest retailer, walmart and kroger. both their requirements go into effect next week. other companies mandating masks include best buy, costco and apple stores. alabama governor kay ivy issued a statewide mask order yesterday. the order is set to go into effect this evening and run until at least july 31st. it says they must wear a mask

when within 6 feet of a person from another household, in an indoor space, in a vehicle, or in an outdoor public space where ten or more people are dwgather. governor ivy also saying alabama's icus seeing an overwhelming number of patients, last week 87% of the beds were full. in neighboring georgia governor kemp extended the coronavirus restrictions but banned counties from adopting face mask requirements. the executive order encourages face coverings rather than mandating them. governor kemp said such a move would be, quote, a bridge too far and it would be unenforceab unenforceable. >> joining us is "morning joe" chief medical correspondent dr. dave campbell.

dr. dave, you're looking at south florida, hot spot, covid-19 cases increasing. you're looking specifically at hospital capacity and government regulations. what are you finding? >> mika, i'm not just looking at it, i'm living in it and working in it. i will tell you that the hospital capacities continue to increase and it is increasing from miami, slightly better in broward county, slightly better in palm beach county. we heard all week from the jackson memorial health system, the ceo, head of trauma and critical care at jackson sees no great news coming out of all of the data we see. their hospital is continuing to increase, the icus are essentially full, although all of the activities that happen around a hospital, it's important to remember that the doctors and administers have

some impact on how things are going so elective stuff can be delayed, patients can be moved around, elected can be put off. but remember miami is busting at the seams and that's increasing. all the time we don't have a statewide mandate that i'm aware of for face masks. we have mixed messaging coming out of our government. and even our governor, i've been hesitant to criticize thus far but even our governor this week said on a talk show radio program out of palm beach county that he would have essentially no concern for sending his children to school if they were of school age, which they are not. and i find that to be perhaps the most frightening blindness to the science as it is.

we are surging, the numbers are bull bulging at the seams, hospitalizations are increasing, icus are starting to fill up. and every doctor in the state is addressing this by changing their behaviors as it relates to inpatient hospitalizations. mika? >> so let's try and get some hopeful news in here. there's talk about the race to a vaccine. i'll put it in context and say we're still months away. this is a lot of steps away from being open to the public and many will die between now and then if mitigation efforts are not put in place big time. but having said that, what's the hope that we're looking at? >> the vaccine hope is perhaps the brightest light of the week. but it is a light that is at the end of this long tunnel, as you say. it's later this year, next year, even the year after.

the company that first started testing in humans, moderna has come out now with the earliest test results with 45 patients that were looked at with a series of two different injections of the vaccine and they're finding some optimism in the number of antibodies that are created and the side effects that are coming from the vaccine. there were some side effects in the higher doses of the vaccine in the group that was receiving the vaccine for the second time. but even the serious side effects i see and a lot of people see as relatively acceptable for now. things like soreness, tiredness, muscle pain. the fact that some of the patients developed a fever has, however, raised concerns for when the larger group, the phase three trial of about 30,000 patients will be used. these are going to be

volunteers, not patients, volunteers. some of them will be older. so the fact that the vaccine is mounting a significant response against the virus, but in so doing is causing fever in some individuals will keep the scientists with their eyes sharply focused on concerns for safety. >> dr. dave campbell, thank you very much. let's bring in the president of the florida ambulance association. thank you for being with us. i remember and a lot of new yorkers will remember through march and april, the sounds of new york city almost uninterrupted of the sounds of ambulances running through the streets. what is it like in florida? how busy are you? >> good morning and thanks for having me on. we are seeing what has played out in new york, in houston, beginning to take shape here in

the state of florida. across the state of florida our balance services operate within these 911 systems. we're seeing an uptick in the 911 calls, working at a high pace. we're seeing delays at hospitals being able to accept our patients. so our systems across the state, whether it's orlando, miami, tampa, are all experiencing this phenomenon. >> are you seeing shortages in ppe? what do you need? what are your drivers? what do your health care professionals need right now? >> thanks for asking that. an issue early on was ppe. that has gotten solved. we're concerned about our ability to keep up with the expenses of the covid-19 and what it does to the balance service our biggest concern is taking care of our services financially. let me tell you what i mean by that. part of what we're sighing in

the pandemic is a shift where patients are calling 911 not only for transport to the hospital but for medical care alone. some are afraid to go to the hospital, to a clinic because they think they'll get covid there. so they're using our paramedics for treatment without transport. we do not get reimbursed for those costs. those are an item as we go through the pandemic that we're concerned about that is bringing our ambulance services to a point of struggle financially. >> terrance, these people are heroes, your paramedics, and often they don't get that recognition. they put themselves out there, they're in danger, and as you so eloquently pointed out, you guys need help and backup. you know, one of the most kind of impactful things that joe

biden says in his campaign is that this didn't need to happen, yet we're here again. which is impossible to believe but we are here again in a situation that could have been mitiga mitigated. how are your paramedics doing emotionally, handling the hours and the crises they're consistently confronting. >> every day our first responders get up and they're walking into the fire. we think about them, we pray for them, make sure they're taken care of they have what they need, but we're seeing an increase in the number of paramedics and emts that need to be quarantined because they've been exposed for safety reasons. so that is taking a hit on our workforce. we are looking at ways to reduce the stress. as the state begins to reopen and schools begin to reopen, our paramedics and their families are concerned about what's going

to happen in the next couple weeks. they have the stress of work and coming home having that stress not only worried about whether they're going to bring the virus into their household and affect their families but they are concerned about the future ahead. so we've been very supportive of them, we asked washington to consider their needs as they continue to legislate and bring some relief but their needs are top of mind. >> president of the florida ambulance association, thank you. and thank you for your paramedics for what they do every day. we hope washington hears. top of the hour, july 16th, joining the conversation we have columnist and author of the book "the death of expertise" tom nickels. and chief white house

correspondent for the "new york times," better baker joins us with willie and me, joe has the morning off. >> with four months until election day, president trump announced last night campaign manager brad parscale has been demoted replaced by bill stepian, who was named deputy campaign manager in may. brad parscale will be a senior adviser and continue to lead the campaign's digital and data strategy. obviously the president is look at the polls many of which we'll get into. he knows where he is in this race but we've also said this morning this is a campaign run by the president and somewhat by jared kushner. does it matter who's sitting officially in that seat as the campaign manager? >> look, every campaign that's in trouble looks to shake things up, look for new energy, ideas,

vision, but you're right the president is the one running the campaign calling the shots. it wasn't brad parscale who decided to reopen the country before things were ready. it wasn't brad parscale who has chosen to, you know, narrow cast with the message in favor of confederate flags and statues. these are choices the president made. these are choices he has to live with or make a decision to shift if he wants to shake things up. personnel matters only so far if the person at the top is the one driving the message and the message isn't working, so far the message is not working. >> so jonathan, how many times have we heard this when some member in the administration is replaced and they're the one to reign in the tweets. when he goes off and rambling, one of his speeches. we're hearing from -- that bill

stepien is the guy who can get him focused on the campaign and not worried about confederate statues and goya beans as he was yesterday. hard to take that position seriously when we've seen it happen time and time again. >> the only thing that can silence the president's twitter account is another hack like yesterday. that's a deluded sense of the situation. the president has shown discipline probably once in his career as a politician. though an important time. we remember the last week or so of 2016 he did, for him, stay on message, and rather for the most part quieted his twitter account and some around that credit that for helping his victor. but this is a campaign facing head wins and bill stepien has aal task in front of him. there's been growing d

disenchantment with brad parscale, although some in the family like him and wanted him to remain on. although that was in part of the digital that was so intertwined with the campaign. i wrote about this today for the associated press, a lack of a second term vision. he has struggled to articulate why he deserves another four years and what he would do with them. we remember the interview with sean hannity where he delivered a nonsense answer. in his rose garden speech the other day, though he delivered a number of attacks on joe biden he wasn't able to suggest how he would do things differently outside of simply not being part of the radical left that he's trying to tie joe biden to.

we certainly have seen presidential candidates in the past, ted kennedy most famously, struggle with the question of why do you want to be president? it's rare for an incumbent to not have that sort of idea. we know he was going to run for election, he thought on the back of a strong economy, that went away thanks to a pandemic. the only message he has now is, i oversaw a strong economy once i can do it again but he's not telling america or voters how he would do that. >> he had a branding vision the first time around, make america great again, i'm not sure how that stands up in the middle of a pandemic when almost 140,000 people have died and people are scared and the economy seems to be cratering and is very uncertain for so many people across the country. the polls seem to reflect this. joe biden holds an 11 point advantage over president trump

nationally. according to the latest nbc news wall street journal poll biden sits at 51%. trump's support slid to 40%, down two. the latest quinnipiac university poll shows joe biden loading president trump by 15 points nationally. biden stan biden stands at 52%, up three points since last month. donald trump down to 37%. and in the nbc poll, biden has a significant advantage among blacks, latinos, between the ages of 18 and 34, women and white voters with a college degree. trump leads with white voters overall and white voters without a college degree. president trump's overall job approval in the poll is only 42% while 56% disapprove. the poll has his approval at 36% down six points since last month. his disapproval is up five

points, sitting at 60%. on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic nbc puts it at 37% approving while 59% disapprove. and on his handling of race relations, 33% approve 63% disapprove. the q poll has biden leading on handling the coronavirus pandemic 59 to 35 and who can handle racial inequality, 62 to 30%. we'll be looking at the racial inequality later. but tom nickels, the numbers are going in the wrong direction for donald trump. i would say democrats are still incredibly nervous because last time around every prediction went south on election day. >> yeah, the question is whether disapproval ratings actually

turn into votes that you can have people who will say, i totally disapprove of the way the president handles race relations, i'm going to vote for him again but i disapprove of the way he handles race relations. this gets to the question, the magic question that's been bedevilling everyone who looks at the president's numbers for the past three and a half years which is where is his floor, is it 40, 35, can it drop below 30? clearly his handling of the coronavirus and everything else is denting his support and it's going to cost him definitely at the polls. i think one difference between now and 2016 is that you have people who said i'm going to stay with him because they hadn't really seen how he governed. they've had three and a half years now and there's still a segment of the trump electorate that says there is literally

nothing he can do that will make me change my vote and i'm going to vote for him. that's not all of them. i think part of what you see in the white house right now, the reshuffling and chaos and finger pointing is a sense not only the president is in trouble but he's taking the republican party with him at this point. >> in that new poll where the president trails joe biden by 15 points when you look inside, voters were asked what the confederate flag represents, 56% said it is a symbol of racism, 35% say it is a symbol of southern pride. errin haines we were talking in the last hour, 74% of americans say they always wear masks. another example where the president has dug in on the wrong side. but when you look at the confederate flag two days ago in the interview with cbs he was defending the confederate flag

saying it doesn't represent slavery to people who like it. in this poll it looks like he's getting behind a 30% issue. >> and also saying the confederate flag was a matter of freedom of speech and equating support for the confederate flag with support for black lives matter, which i thought was certainly an interesting comparison. but the pandemics, coronavirus and racism, are political for many americans and are impacting, if you see from the polling, groups being disproportionately affected by the dual pandemics, look at joe biden with black voters, latinos, women, these are folks so affected by the virus and seeing headlines in places like florida, texas, arizona, other emerging hot spots. the concern i'm hearing though, especially from democrats that i'm talking to, is if these poll

numbers, you know, that look good for vice president biden, if that lulls democrats from staying home amid a pandemic, right, if they're thinking oh, joe biden has it in the bag and maybe i don't want to vote for him, but i think it's going to work itself out, do they make the decision to stay home. that's what happened in 2016 with hillary clinton and we saw the outcome then. so peter, you wrote for the "new york times" yesterday the definitive clip and save piece about the president's rambling press conference such as it was a couple days ago in the rose garden. just bigger picture we watched the president tick through a list that had been prepared for him by his staff of attacks on joe biden, most of them not based in fact, some of them based in fact. if you can capture it, what is the message, what is the

president saying to the american people that would get him re-elected? if you look at the wrong track poll, 19% say we're on the right track, 72% say we're on the wrong track. what is the president grabbing onto in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, the race relations, an economy that's lagging to say the least, what is his argument for re-election? >> i think his argument for re-election is the other guy is worse. bravo for president trump so far, partly because the pandemic has altered our environment so drastically, it's been a contest about trump versus not-trump. it's a ref rerendum on the president. it's not between two candidates and examine their strengths and flaws. he's trying to make it a choice between trump and biden and needs to tell voters, particularly his voters, voters open to voting for him that

biden is not only worse but scary someone you have to come out and vote against. you may say biden is a likable guy but he's a captive of the left, of bernie sanders, elizabeth warren, aoc, he'll hurt the country, socialized medicine, climate change, no windows in your buildings in 2030, he'll open the borders, allow crime to run rampant in the street. he's had a hard time engaging biden because biden had the luxury of not being so public because of the pandemic. and trump is holding on by fall there will be a choice to define biden. with president obama, the last incumbent to run, who had weak numbers going into 2012 he did it early with mitt romney.

for president trump, it's getting late and biden is a known figure, not as unpopular as hillary clinton was with voters. these are bad numbers, obviously, but still a along way to election day and they think they can still turn things around. >> peter baker, thank you very much for being on this morning. let's look at where the coronavirus stands right now. some bad news across the country. texas set grim records yesterday for single day deaths and new covid-19 cases as the state continues to get deluged by the resurgence of the pandemic. the state reported 110 deaths and nearly 11,000 new cases of the virus yesterday. it was the second consecutive day the lone star state broke its record for new cases. it was also the sixth day in a row that the state reported more than 10,000 active covid-19 hospitalizations. a number that's important to

follow. this as hospitals around the state are running out of drugs, beds, ventilators, and even staff. and the virus is now rapidly spreading into the state's nursing homes. threatening elderly, frail residents who are most at risk of serious illness and death. across the state nearly 1,000 new infections of nursing home residents were reported in the last week. that is the highest weekly increase since mid may and is most likely an undercount. deaths from the virus are also mounting, 1,173 nursing home residents have died in texas so far according to the state data, including 224 deaths since july 1st. and willie, thank you ted cruz for flying with no mask, you know, why wear one? >>, meanwhile, rice university

in texas plans to resume onsite classes next month but with a twist, they'll hold classes outdoors. they announced they'll use five 40 by 60 foot tents which hold 25 to 30 students, four temporary buildings will be in place to hold 50 students and instructor while allowing for 6 feet of distance to be maintained. the university plans to ask students to bring portable chairs with them. trying to get students back on campus. doctor, give us a snapshot of what's happening in harris county right now, hospitalizations, icu beds, where are you right now? >> first of all, thanks for having me. i'd say we continue to be concerned about what's happening

as you just highlighted a couple of stories before having me on. we are concerned about what's happening in the community, we have increase demand on our testing, increased people calling our call centers, we've got tests that are coming back positive before it was one in eight, one in ten, now it's one in four. we obviously have increases in the hospitalizations, including the icus. all of that gives us a worrisome picture right now, that's why when we you're hearing the stories across our community and texas, all of us are really trying to do everything we can to fight this virus. >> doctor, what's brought you to this point? not just houston, not just harris county but we've seen southern california have to roll back its reopening, we've seen arizona, alabama, georgia, south florida, but where you are in harris county, why are you reaching this tipping point?

>> we are the third largest county in the u.s. our county executive has been forthright about aggressively fighting this virus. you heard with the different elected officials, including mayor turner with houston, we have been doing everything we can to fight the virus and early on we were successful. the numbers showed it, march, april, may. we had two things happen, one was the local authorities were taken to the state level and the second thing that occurred was simply reopening. we know there's really no playbook for how you reopen, obviously the states you've talked about have shown that. but the concern we had was as reopening occurred it happened too fast, too many sectors at the same time. and i call this layering affect, the reopening along with mild stone events, memorial day, mother's day, father's day,

protests, and then fourth of july weekend, all of that layers on each other and then people had the inconsistency in messaging they were seeing in the federal, state and local levels and they said i'm going to chance it, not wear my mask, make it an issue. and i don't need to worry about going out, now you have what we have and it could have been prevented. that's what frustrates us. >> i know houston has pushed back the school's start date saying a couple weeks online schooling before they can get back into the classrooms, they hope so anyway. how do you look at this fall, how do you do it safely? >> we've got a lot of reach out from parents who are concerned, teachers who are concerned. i myself am a parent, my wife and i have three kids, two in the younger age group and we have a lot of our staff members who are parents, grandparents. i'll tell you, everybody is

worried about the next generation. our children going to school. one of the polls i saw just yesterday was that two thirds of texans are very concerned about sending their kids to school right now. that underscores the biggest issues from a state standpoint or a federal standpoint we can't just say, wish, let's go to school, everything is fine. we have to make sure our kids and teachers and everyone involved are safe. the good news is that yesterday the state -- again, back to authorities and -- we don't have those tools we had previously. so now we have to rely on the state. the state has said now that schools can virtually go initially, however they need to have the local health authority be able to safe this is the case in order to continue to keep their funding. so that really again to me -- this is something we could have done from a state standpoint. we're glad at least now we have

the ability to look at this and we're looking at it very closely obviously. >> we wish you luck in your efforts. we know how serious it has gotten down there in harris county, dr. shaw, thank you. mika? still ahead on "morning joe," a new report says the presidential election might not be decided in november but rather months later. it's one of the worst case scenarios laid out in an updated list of the biggest risk to the 2020 vote, we'll run through that next on "morning joe." thrh that next on "morning joe. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the open road is open again. and wherever you're headed, choice hotels is there.

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the eurasia group has updated its annual risk report looking at the potential impact the coronavirus pandemic could have on the 2020 election, outlining what it says may be the worst case scenario.

joining us is ian bremmer, what did you all find? >> we said back in january that there was a concern -- locally the first time ever domestic issue was the election rate. big change, of course, is that we now have a serious pandemic in front of us that we didn't have in january, that makes the holding of the election more difficult. saw that with the primary in georgia back on june 9th. the bad side scenario here is if it's close enough that it comes down to a number of swing states, right now that wouldn't be the case but it's plausible. and then, of course, the president says it's rigged. and it's rigged because -- he claims there are inadequacies in going from 5 to 10% typically of absentee balloting to 50% which

we expect to see or the voting infrastructure is overwhelmed, they don't have as many people out there and then a lot of voters show up like you saw in georgia. a number of key states, north carolina, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, you have democratic governors and republican legislators. usually the governors are those supposed to be certifying and going to congress. but nothing to stop the republican legislators -- if trump says he wins and the republicans in congress say that's right, you would then have a contested outcome where the house says one thing, the senate says the other and the supreme court doesn't get involved historically in congressional voting matters and they would want to stay out of politics as they have shown they have over the past months and that means we're in unprecedented territory. >> the president has been laying

the ground work for this, advertising the possibility of a, quote, rigged election because of mail-in voting. >> willie, that's right. yesterday he had an event in atlanta, georgia. a state that is now considered more or less a battleground. this is an official event about infrastructure, it's infrastructure week ago. and the president started with remarks about mail-in voting. we're hearing from the pressure of the white house pushing away from this although some in the trump orbit say that's wrong because so many of his voters need to mail in their ball los. what's the best way to safeguard this? whether by mail-in voting or something else, can keep their voters healthy while exercising their right to the ballot this fall? >> keeping the voters healthy

is, as you're seeing, impossible to do outside of an election. that's when we should have had the end of our first wave right now we're not seeing that. when you talk about election day, most ep deidemiologists ext a second wave, especially the colder climate states people are coming back to work, back to school and they're inside much more. the idea you're going to get voting infrastructure up to speed unprecedentedly fast to handle the massive numbers of mail in votes which trump has clearly said, that's rigged, that's unacceptable. and his base does believe him on that. or you're going to have a bunch of people showing up and it's going to be hard to process them because the necessary social distancing over the course of one day. clearly there's an enormous number of lawsuits around the process. the question is whether you can

stop it from becoming contested in congress in the states. the best way to stop it from being contested is if it's a blowout for biden or trump. but if it's not, if it's close, we know how divided the country is, we know trump has 40% blended support right now, even in the context of the word crisis of our lifetime and by november the economy will be turning better, momentum better, hard to imagine he'll be doing as badly then as he is now. that's why the number one risk is out there. normally we'd talk about u.s. china relations, this year since when i started in 1998 we're talking about a u.s. domestic risk. it's because the likelihood of this being seen as rigged by half the population is high and it comes at a time we see governan

governance. we see an amount that needs done by congress in terms of bailouts and relief for hundreds of millions of people suffering through the dislocations of an 8 to 10% contraction of our economy for this year. there are a couple of consequences for not knowing who the president is for a couple months. >> let's bring tom nickels in for the next question. tom? >> i think one of the problems for the public is they have this idea that elections only take place and are counted somehow in washington d.c., but this is a federalism issue. the people on the spot on election day are going to be secretaries of state all over the country. having to report back the vote. how resilient do you think american federalism is to be able to handle this kind of multiple shock throughout the states at the state capital level before this gets to the

kind of debate and contesting that we're going to see in washington d.c. how healthy do you think american federalism is and how well do you think it's going to be able to handle and be resilient in the face of this kind of potential crisis? >> look, tom, i think that american federalism is showing that it's resilient in dealing with an unprecedented and modern times health care crisis with massive economic dislocations, with social dissent and violence. there's a lot that's been on the federal system and governs and state legislatures have shown they may not all be handling it equally well but the institutions aren't falling apart. i don't think they would fall apart even in the worst case scenario here. it's not all about american democracy, it's much more how do people react when they're that divided and when the outcome

will be seen as illegitimate by half of the population. what i'm saying is that if this election were run in another country there's a high likelihood that americans would be saying that it's unfair, it's unfree and we need to send in observers, this is the kind of thing we usually castigate and poke aspersions at when we see it internationally and now the largest economy in the world, the one that's supposed to be leading by example is getting ready to hold an election that a portion of the population is going to say it's i lee ji mat and the president is going to say it's illegitimate. and the party members if he loses and it's close, will go along with him.

we saw it with the impeachment, this was a direct intervention when you try to get a foreign leader to open an investigation against the person running against you and one republican senator voted against it. that's setting up for this problem. >> thank you very much for coming on this morning ian bremmer and tom nickels. with many child care facilities forced to close because of the coronavirus pandemic, many parents have struggled to balance work and raising their children. we're kb we're going to talk to congresswoman katherine clark who's been pushing for fixes to the child care crisis. fixes to the child care crisis.

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40% of child care centers in this country could close because the financial pressure stemming from the pandemic. that's according to the national

association for the education of young which i shachildren. joining us now author of multiple bills to address this crisis, vice chair of the house democratic caucus, congresswoman katherine clark of massachusetts. thanks very much for being on the show. this is a huge issue that is really paralyzing parents across the country who -- those who are able to keep their jobs and work from home have this impossible task of balancing it all in one place. what is the solution? >> you're absolutely right, mika. child care is essential. and it is part of our economic and educational infrastructure. but unfortunately we have not treated it like that. now with this pandemic, the results of that under investment are becoming so apparent and we

simply cannot have a healthy economy and make sure that our children are reaching their full opportunity without stabilizing and investing in the child care sector. and we know that what we have is a woman-run sector. 96% of child care providers are women. 40% of those providers are women of color. but they have been chronically underpaid. and the statistic that you just cited is one that should be frightening to everyone. that almost half of our child care centers may not be able to reopen. we have to make the investments that i have called for in the child care's essential act, the child care's infrastructure act, that will help stab lailize thi

industry and put them on a course success. it's vital to our economy. >> it's willie geist, as you know there's a study that shows 4.5 million child care slots could be lost with the closure of these facilities. that's devastating to families they don't know what to do with their kids, it has fallout on whether or not men and women can go back to work if they have nowhere for their children to go. but these days are coming around the corner, it's the middle of july, schools are supposed to open in a month and a half, how quickly can you get the money out? is it too late to keep these facilities open? >> it's never too late to make the investment in our children. but what's late is the senate

and the administration showing a high tolerance for pain and suffering, while they let the heroes act that we passed two months ago in the house collect dust on the senate floor. and what we need to do is pass the heroes act. we need the senate and my colleagues across the aisle to join us, to make these investments for american families. we need to look at this pandemic, which is at the worst point that it has been in and understand and act on that we cannot have a healthy economy if we don't have healthy people. so we need to make this investment in child care. we need to have a secretary of education who says we are going to open schools safely. those are not words we've heard from betsy devos. she wants to open schools but

she doesn't want to look at how we protect teachers, families, children. she doesn't want to look at the data around this pandemic. she wants to sweep all of that under the rug and say, we are going to open schools and we, frankly, don't care what happens to the people involved with education. we have teachers in texas who are filling out wills and medical proxies because they are so afraid when they are given the choice of a pink slip or go to schools where there hasn't been a plan on how we are going to test, trace, provide protective equipment to keep them safe. >> errin haines is with us and she has the next question. >> thank you so much. the national education of children survey in the 19th

newsletter to show that half of the providers of color say they plan to close permanently without further public assistance. we're seeing a demand among some families looking for nannies with antibodies. so many women looking like they're on their own with children, we know women are the majority of the workforce and electorate. what this means for working mothers and what the government's responsibility is for people to address this crisis who doesn't understand why the government has a role to play in helping working women figure out child care so they can head back to work safely and not feel like they are alone in figuring this out. >> child care is a microcosm of racial justice of making sure that we have opportunities for women. and we know from all the

research that it is women who are impacted when child care is unaffordable and inaccessible in a disproportionate way. and where we have a workforce that is predominantly women and women of color, we have a crisis in the making that we cannot have true equality for women. we cannot have an economy that includes women unless we make this investment in child care. and this goes hand in hand with building an inclusive economy. and so, these issues are essential to how we meet this moment in our country's history. how we look at racial justice. how we look at equality. and how we make sure that our families are safe and able to access education and child care

for their kids. >> congresswoman katherine clark, thank you very much for everything. thanks for being on this morning. up next, joe has a new piece in "the washington post," entitled, i still believe in the american dream but i know why so many others don't. we'll read from it ahead. "morning joe" is back in a moment. "morning joe" is back in a moment how about no no uh uh, no way come on, no

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joe's been reading and writing a lot during his break and he has a new column in "the washington post" that i want to share with you entitled "i still believe in the american dream but i know why so many others don't". joe writes in part this, my oldest son, then 21, had never seen fear running across his father's face and why should he have? joey's dad after all was a 6'4" white man born in a suburban

middle class home whose parents were raised in the great depression and started their family during the american century zenith, they bequeathed to hard work. my election to congress as a young outsider only served to reinforce the scarborough family's faith in the dream. fear? it was an emotion reserved from all thoughter screenings of "jaws" or "the shining." but panic seized my body halfway through my fourth decade as a doctor whispered to my newborn son, preeth, boy, breathe. jack soon come mied and was quickly whisked away to the neonatal intensive care unit. his two-pound body was hurriedly wrapped in cellophane, his frail frame covered with a gaggle of wires. 15 minutes later, i stared down at my child inside a glass

bubble. a doctor walked up and looked at his tiny patient. you want to know when you can stop worrying about him, he asked? maybe when he walks down the aisle with a bride at his side, maybe. he left without offering a smile. other babies in that nicu would die over the next month. but jack improved steadily until we could finally bring him home. but the aura of invincebility that i had soaked in since childhood was gone. any remaining illusions would be dashed over the next decade with the death of my parents, a second divorce, the loss of friends to cancer and the fears faced by any father of four. i now spend my days praying for those children nervously crossing myself when i speak of good things and knocking on wood whenever the surface is within reach. but i know i'm blessed to have had the luxury of living

fearlessly through the first four decades of my life. unlike my post colleague, eugene robinson, i never had to warn any teenage boys how to behave when stopped by a police officer. and unlike the writer, tanaheesey coats, i did not know the fear that arises from being born of a people who control nothing, who can protect nothing. as coats told his son, black people love their children with a kind of obsession. you're all we have and you come to us endangered. the streets of west baltimore do not allow a child to walk through life carrying a sense of invincebility. instead, parents harbor an unremitting dread when their child does something as mundane as walking to school. fathers across the south side of chicago cannot assure their children that a faith in god, a love of country and a life

filled with hard work will lead them to the dream. for millions of americans, that dream appears to be little more than a white man's conjuring, designed to conceal a country's sins and hold its citizens harmless for crimes committed against black humanity over the past 400 years. president trump understands better than most politicians the alore of cheap racial absolutition. that's why he spent this week defending the confederate flag and attacking a reporter who asked about the continued killing of black americans. just as he preached moral ee equivalence after charlottesville, trump suggested that we ignore the uncomfortable fact that a disproportionate number on of black people are killed every year by law enforcement officers. this retrograde approach to campaigning is, of course, nothing new.

the president has spent weeks picking away the scab convinced that this will distract voters from his disastrous response to a pandemic that has wrecked the u.s. economy and killed more than 130,000 americans. every poll shows the president's instincts on this are not just immoral, they're dead wrong. this is not to say our country is having a great awakening. but i still believe in the dream. why shoonts i given my lye's journey? and why shouldn't millions of american similarly blessed by the riches and opportunities of this great land? this faith must be freighted by the knowledge that millions of other americans cannot simply carry with them some aspirations, nor can they avert

their eyes from the bitter reality that in 2020 a disproportionate number of black americans are still killed by pandemics and police. as coats wrote in between the world and me, americans should take their exceptionalism seriously and subject the country to an exceptional moral standard. the pursuit of that higher purpose was re-ignited after the killing of george floyd. the tourney can only end when every citizen is raised free of fear and filled with the same dream that so many of us take for granted. joe's latest piece online now at "the washington post." and still ahead, a shake-up for president trump's re-election campaign just months before november. campaign manager brad parscall has been replaced as polls show trump trailing joe biden. we'll have the numbers and the new reporting.

meanwhile, despite an effort by the white house to discredit him, dr. anthony fauci says he's not going anywhere. in fact, he says the attacks don't hurt him. they hurt the president. we're back in a moment with another packed hour of "morning joe." ment with another packed hour of "morning joe. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the open road is open again. and wherever you're headed, choice hotels is there. book direct at choicehotels.com. ♪ did you know liberty mutual customizes your car insurance ta-da! at choicehotels.com. so you only pay for what you need? i should get a quote. do it. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

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good morning and welcome to "morning joe." it's thursday, july 16th. according to the latest nbc news "wall street journal" poll, biden now sits 51% up two points since last month. trump's support slid to 40%, down two. biden has a significant advantage among black latino voters between the ages of 18 to 34, women and white voters with a college degree trump leads among white voters overall and white voters without a college degree. president trump's overall job approval in this poll is only 42% approving while 56% disapprove. on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, 37% approve while 59% disapprove. can you imagine what they're thinking in florida right now?

pleasurus florida, which you need to win, is right now in the middle of an incredible surge of coronavirus cases. on his handling of race relations, 33% approve while 63% disapprove. so we'll get to the latest poll in just a moment. steve kornacki joins us this morning. steve, i really wanted to talk to you about exactly what these polls mean at this time in the race. of course, back in 2016, a lot happened between this time and voting time, although early voting starts in a matter of weeks. so what exactly do these polls mean? obviously, they don't say exactly what is going to happen, but what can we garner from them? >> there's a couple of way toes look at it. number one, there is time left here and the world can change very quickly. we've seen that just in the last couple of months. so let's see what the future holds. but to put this in some perspective, if you look at the

last three presidents who were running for re-election, obama in 2012, george w. bush in 2004, bill chinton linton in 1996, wh "the wall street journal" poll closest to this period? each one of them had a slight lead at this point. and each one was re-elected. so donald trump is in a measurably different place than the last three presidents were who were seeking re-election at this point. all of them won. all of of them were ahead in the polls. he's down double digits in our poll and not just double digits, but you've seen significant distance in trump and biden now with all national polls for a long time. so, really, if you want to get a comparison to what trump's numbers look like for a president running for re-election, the comparison that starts to jump out right now is george h.w. bush. and that's 1992. and george h.w. bush is the last president to run for re-election

and lose. he's our last one-term president. and it was this point, middle of july 1992 when bill clinton zoomed ahead of bill clinton in the polling. bill clinton had a big lead and he never lost that lead. so right now, i look at trump's numbers and i'm seeing something that much more resembles bush '92 than any of those three presidents after him who won a second term. yes, still time left. i think it's significant this large biden lead has been in place for a while now. >> steve, is there any one or two of those cross tabs inside the nbc/"wall street journal" poll that jumps out to you? i'm looking a at women, for example, where joe biden has a 23% lead on the president of the united states. is there something in those numbers that tells you more than that top line national referendum number? >> yeah. i guess the way to look at it is to say where is the movement here? if you look back in 2016 when trump was just able to get

elected, where has the movement been that puts biden in this position? when you put that trump advantage among white voters, trump is leading among white voters. in our poll, trump's lead is 7 points among white voters. in 2016, trump won the white vote by 26 points. so a 20-point advantage there in 2016 has been whittled down to 7 points for donald trump right now. and if you look within the white you vote, look, he leads, trump does, among noncollege whites. that's been his core base here. he still has a lead, you'll see it on the screen, 57/35. but it's a big lead on paper, but it's not nearly as big as it was in 2016. and then you look at that white voters with a college degree and that is a huge shift where biden opens a 15-point advantage in our poll. that's a group that historically had been a republican group.

it had been moving with the democrats. it seemed competitive in '16. now it's a blowout for joe biden and that is consistent with what we've been talking about in the midterms where you saw one metro area after the other around the country abandon the party and when you see movement, that's what that is reflecting in some ways. >> so let's look at the latest quinn pea act university poll showing joe biden leading president trump by 15 points nationally. biden stands at 52%, up 3 points since last month. trump at 37% has fallen four points since june. this poll has trump's approval at 32% down 6 points since last month. his disapproval sup five points sitting at 60%. joe biden leads president trump on several key issues, including who voters trust to handle a

crisis. who can best handle health care? 58% to 35%. handling the coronavirus response? 59% to 35%. and who can best handle racial inequality? 62% to 30%. and half of voters believe that joe biden would do a better job handling the economy than president trump. 45% said they believe trump could do a better job. up next, we'll get the white house reaction to the new poll numbers and the latest on the major shake-up inside the trump campaign. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. atching "mo" we'll be right bac k. ♪ ♪ k. now is the time to support the places you love.

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with a powerful and reliable internet and voice solution at a great price. call or go online today. welcome back to "morning joe." we've been talking about the presidential poll numbers and how the trump administration is

reacting. president trump announced on twitter last night that campaign manager brad parscal had been demoted, replaced by bill steppian, who was just named deputy campaign manager in may. parscal will now be a senior adviser and continue to lead the campaign's digital and data strategy. let's bring in the ap's jonathan lamere. jonathan, what are you hearing? >> brad parscal's fate was sealed the moment president trump stepped on to the stage in tulsa and saw the empty seats. it was a comeback rally, the first in months, and only about 6,000 people showed. they even had to scrap the overflow space. there had been tensions prior to that. trump complained privately that he didn't like how much attention parscal was getting, he didn't like the idea that parscal was making so much

money. parscal, this is only his second national campaign. he is close to jared kushner. he's the one who brought parscal in to run the digital operation and this time, too, but in recent weeks, more and more other senior advisers had been brought in. parscal's duties were diminished. getting rid of him would be so difficult because of his hand in the digital operation, but certainly he is no longer calling the shots. bill steppan is. but at the understand of the day, the campaign manager is jared kushner. it has been all along. it still is now. just not in title. >> jan, at the end of the day, we know president trump with

some guidance from jared kushner is running this campaign. what do they feel will be different about the president's campaign? what will change in all these numbers with bill steppian as opposed to brad parscal? >> it's unclear what will change. in our reporting, steppian was pushing the president to go more negative on biden. the president's advisers have been puzzled why outside of the sleepy joe nickname the president hadn't opened fire biden. that may be changing. we saw the performance in the rose garden earlier this week which was a 62-minute diatribe mostly against the former vice president. there's more message focussing, but i don't think many people in trump's world expect things to change that much. in 2016, they had a bunch of leadership changes on the campaign, including one in august that brought in steve bannon and kellyanne conway that eventually did contribute to

their victory that fall. but it's unclear what will change inside the building and certainly inside the campaign there is great concern about the polls you guys decided to go to. but they know 15 points is a big enough number that could spook other runs, that could spook donors, that could spook some in the senate and the house to maybe start distancing themselves from the president. and the margins in the battleground states, they aren't getting any smaller. there is an awareness, they're start to go run out of election time. it's only six or seven weeks until early voting begins. >> and there you go. you mentioned the battleground states. let's look at the latest nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. biden leads the president across 11 battleground states by 12 points, 52% to 40%. looking at specific states, biden leads trump by 6 points in

arizona, 51 to 45%. by 7 points in florida, 50% to 43%. by 8 points in pennsylvania, 50-42. we'll show you another one in a moment that has a wider biden lead here. by 6 points in wisconsin and michigan respectively. 48-42. and by one point in north carolina, 47-46%. a new monmouth university poll shows the president down by 13 points. biden up 53% to 40%. these numbers look a bit more troubling for the president when looking at key age demographics. biden takes home the age of 18 to 49. that vote. 60 to 29 percent. the president does lead in the ages 50 to 64, 56% to biden's

43%. i want to bring in erin hanes. you're looking at the battlegrounds, erin. what are these numbers telling us about the trump presidency itself, perhaps the pandemic and the president's ability to handle a crisis? good morning, mika. i think it tells us we have a majority of americans saying they disapprove of the coronavirus and racism, the two main issues dominating our national conversation and many americans' experience right now. and specifically on the coronavirus, what is interesting from that nbc wsj poll, 3 out of 4 voters say they are wearing mask when they're shopping, working, being around other people. that is an increase from last month. and what that says to me is that voters are looking for, you

know, leadership that is really concerned about their health and safety. you see, voter enthusiasm really -- people really being very interested in this election, almost 8 in 10 americans really paying close attention. and with voters across the country, many of whom still at home are largely at home during this pandemic and something that probably could come back up as we head into the fall and, you know, we see a second wave. folks are going to be tuned in to this election. what is interesting, you do have a majority of voters still approving of the president's handling of the economy which does tend to be a top priority issue for voters. it was the thing in 2016 that allowed republican voters to overlook whatever other issues they may have had with candidate trump. but it's -- it will be interesting to see whether that remains to be the case this

year. >> yeah. and that nbc poll had it flipped on the economy. joe, if you look at how the country is feeling about the way things are going, on the nbc poll, 7 2% of americans think we're on the wrong track. only 19% believe the country is on the right track, 1-9, 19%. you can see why because of coronavirus because of what they're seeing in some cases in the streets of the country. how does this president recover from a number like that? as you look back through history, as i know you do through polls, have we seen a president re-elected with a 19% right track number? >> again, that's where you start getting back to 1992 when you know the economy took center stage and the change message really took hold from bill clinton. again, that is where you start to see that comparison. i think of the numbers you're showing really do underscore how much of this 11-point lead for biden, all the numbers we're talking about here, how much it is drirchb by donald trump. it's the overall job approval

number for president trump right now. it's the coronavirus and race relations, the two inches that have taken center stage in the last two months and he has terribly, terribly negative numbers on both those questions. you just showed the economy he's doing quite well on, but that does not seem to be what is driving people's votes right now. we asked folks, would you be open to supporting biden? would you be open to supporting trump? 50% said no to trump. 37% said no to biden. biden was under water. in our poll, at least was there's not this ground swell of popularity to biden. it is the negatives for trump as

the incumbent president that seem to be driving this. >> absolutely. i think the basement approach, which trump makes fun of, actually focuses his message, focuses his empathy, focuses the fact that he knows what he's talking about and there aren't these distractions of him out in crowds, you know, having a good time with people that often might get misunderstood, trying to connect with people too much. it really does put him on a different level optically. for those who maybe don't know him, who are seeing him for the first time and comparing that visual to trump, it's very helpful. now to the latest with the coronavirus, specifically looking at florida, which is a huge worry.

hospitals are struggling with icu beds. according to the agency for health care admin administration, 54 hospitals in florida now have zero beds available in their intensive care units. another 40 hospitals have less than 10% available capacity in their icus. in miami dade, one of the state's top hot spots and most populous county, 10 of the hospitals there reported no available icu beds. on tuesday, the state recorded 133 deaths, marking its second deadliest day since the start of the pandemic. coming up, twitter is reeling from a major hack yesterday that raises huge questions about internet security, particularly ahead of the presidential election. we'll talk about the serious implications, next on "morning joe." implications, next on "morning joe. from prom dresses...

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we are learning a lot more about a major security breach at twitter. dozens of high profile accounts, including those of joe biden, barack obama, bill gates and elon musk were hacked yesterday afternoon for more than two

hours. the hackers posted similar tweets, scamming users to send crypto currency to a bit county address which managed to receive more than $115,000. twitter removed the tweets shortly after being posted. the site also temporarily shut down verified accounts like the national weather service, which was silenced during a tornado watch in illinois. last night, twitter released a statement tweeting in part we detected what we believe to be a coordinated social engineering attack by people who successfully targeted some of our employees with access to internal system and tools. we're looking into what other malicious activity they may have conducted or information they may have accessed and we'll share more as we have it. they were able to respond so quickly. the fbi said waits aware of the incident. let's bring in former fbi special agent and msnbc

contributor clint wadds. clint, i go right to the election and i worry. talk to us about what you can tell us, what this means. >> i'm sure, you, mika, me, everybody that saw that former vice president joe biden's twitter account taken other, former president, what if this is election day? it's all about timing the scale. imagine this attack is pulled off the day before the election. there's information about polling places or it smears or maligns one of the candidates. this is a natural thing to worry about and i'm sure this has been on the mind of everyone that's trying to defend the election. even worse, if you're a mainstream media outlet doing reporting on both counts, just think of the implications here, right? what if someone puts out false vote totals from an official account. it would send the country into chaos trying to convince people what the actual vote count would be. so a major, major attack, in some ways the silver lining to

this is it happened so far from the election that twitter now has the ability to investigate this and prepare for that election day. let's hope they can stop something like this from happening again. >> clint, it's willie. so let's take a step back here. what exactly happened? i know it's still early. it's less than 24 hours ago. but how could someone siege some prominent twitter accounts and could they do it with facebook? facebook was used heavily in 2016. could they do it on these other apps where people are getting information around politics and getting information that would inform votes or perhaps change them? >> it's a great question and super important. usually what we see is one individual person's account will get hacked. usually they lose control of that account. this was very clear from the start that something at the inside of twitter had been broken into. and so if they have that power to get in there and take over the internal controls, the question is this an insider attack or some something where they've gained access to twitter

systems and it explains why twitter wasn't able to quickly remove that content. as we watch this sort of play out, the question will be is how quick can twitter respond, how do they keep control of it? the thing about twitter that we oftentimes forget is it has the largest reach in the world for news and information. all of us, i rely on it. everybody relies on it. the president uses it as a diplomatic tool, as a way to get out his message. just yesterday, he tweeted in farsi for the first time out to iran trying to connect with the iranian people. imagine if one of those tweets had been changed just a little bit, maybe hinting of military action and you could trigger all sorts of events down the road. so i think the big thing here is i'm sure twitter is working around the clock to get on top of this. we just had a fire drill for election day. 1% of the 1% will still click on

something or will still send bitcoin. that scam still raised 115,000 in the beginning. that shows people do fall for these things on scale. >> clint you, are you confident that this was, in fact, a bitcoin scam?, are you confiden that this was, in fact, a bitcoin scam?, are you confiden that this was, in fact, a bitcoin scam?, are you confiden that this was, in fact, a bitcoin scam?, are you confident this was, in fact, a bitcoin scam? i've heard it could be a test drive for the run up to the election. if not a test drive, could some other operation be looking at this and saying, boy, we could disrupt things here. >> it's possible this could have been some sort of diversion, right? you can conduct some of the attack to see if you can get into systems, but maybe you drop out somewhere else or you stay inside a system and wait to use it at another point. it was a little curious and most of the accounts and companies were celebrities. so that is a little bit curious in terms of the targeting. could mean something, could mean

nothing. i think when we look at it, twitter is going to have to really, really lock this down and look through aes awl these scenarios. i don't think this was some sort of subter fuji behind the scenes. but it could be difficult to know. so lurking in that system and springing it later is something we all need to be worried about. for us in the media, we need to be aware of how much we're receiving from these platforms and how much we look into it. >> steve kornacki, i'm worried about how this could be one of those surprises before the election. what were your thoughts when you heard this story? >> yeah. i think my main thought was, wow, i guess it's a lot easier than i would have thought to get into some of those accounts. i guess maybe i have a layman's

thought on this, if it's somebody on of that prominence, there must be 9,000 extra layers of security around it or something. and like clint is saying, the fact that it's not just one person, it was this assortment of incredibly high profile people all at once was, to me, a demonstration that apparently it is a lot less difficult than i thought it was to get at the most prominent accounts on there. >> steve kornacki and clint wadds, thank you for coming on this morning. coming up, a look at six positive developments to remind us is there is hope in this crisis. "morning joe" is back in a moment. crisis "morning joe" is back in a moment

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breaking news, the labor department has just released its weekly report on jobless claims. 1.3 million americans filed for unemployment benefits last week. that is the 17th consecutive week of more than a million initial weekly claims. joining us now for more on the number, former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst steve ratner. also with us, cochair of color of change, heather mcgee. and ceo of latinos united, fernando. it's been 17 weeks in this country of a million or more americans filing for unemployment. where do you see the trend right now? >> that is exactly the point, willie. we should all be very concerned about this number of 1.3 to 5 million a week that it's been running. the trend is largely down roughly in line with expect

ages, but a bit slower than i think many of us would have hoped if we want to see any kind of sustained strong rebound. at 1.3 million or 1.5 million, you're talking about twice as many americans every week filing for unemployment insurance that we ever had and the worst week in our history prior to this pandemic. so it's a huge number. somewhat encouraging. but a lot of wood left to chop before we get back to reasonable levels of jobs. >> and you've come armed with your charts as always and you're looking at the demographics about certain members of our culture, our society, facing unemployment in larger numbers than others. where are you looking specifically? >> so i heard it earlier this morning, quote ivanka trump as saying people who lose their jobs should, quote, find something new. and what i wanted to show you today is how hard it may be for some of those people to find something new, depending on what demographic group you're in. let's start with minorities.

what you can see here at the top is that asian americans and black americans were up to 18% unemployment at the peak of this pandemic. they're only down to 15% and 14% respectively of unemployment. hispanics similarly were actually the hardest hit group. they were up to 21%. they're down to 13%. but then you look at white americans. white american unemployment got up to 16%, but then it dropped down to 9%. so you can see this enormous disparity in joblessness among racial groups for whites below 10% up to blacks, hispanics and latinos at much higher levels. now, if you look at it another way, which is by education, utility see even more stark numbers, which is that people with less than a high school diploma got -- were as much as 26% unemployed at the worst of this. they're only down to 24% unemployed. they're behavely improved. as you move into higher education levels, high school

graduates were up 21%. they're now down to 16. if you had some college, you went from 16 to 10. now look at this rather stunning number at the bottom. if you had a bachelor's degree, your unemployment rate really only went up to 6% at the worst of it. you're 2340u down now down to 2. that's because many people with bachelor's degrees can work from home. people with less education, these are people who are often working in leisure and hospitality and exactly the kinds of jobs being cut. so education has become a defining measure of success during this pandemic. and lastly, let's look at it by age. and you see another interesting result here, which is the youngest americans, those between 16 and 24, their unemployment rates got north of 30% in the worst of this. they're still north of 20%, close to 25% for the youngest americans. again, many of these people are just starting out. they may not have finished high school. they may not have finished college. they're working at relatively

low-paying jobs in hospitality and leisure. they're often the first to be cut. as you move up the age spectrum, you see things do get better. the unemployment rate is now down to 7% from 11 before. and so the point, really, the take away from all this, really, is that there are enormous differences in impact from this joblessness and people with more education who are more in the middle of their careers and frankly who are white are faring a lot better than many of the rest of our american colleagues. >> boy, those charts are a great snapshot of what is happening right now in america, both on the health crisis and the economic crisis. fernando, i'll again with you as we go back to steve's first chart and we look at the breakdown by ethnicity and race. they have gone after hispanics,

african-americans, people of color, in ways it has not gone after white people. why specifically as it been so difficult for latinos in this country? >> well, i think as we discuss systemic racism, we also have to talk about a related phenomenon, which is structural inequities, right? as steve showed, education steams to be the driver of whether people have been able to maintain their employment or not and how much are they suffering. and i think as we look at public education in our country, we understand that depending on where you live, that is your destiny. there are good schools everywhere, but certainly if you're in a lower income neighborhood, your schools tend to be worst and perform worse and that sets up your whole life. so when you look at everything from participation in white collared jobs, college graduates and so forth, you see in the hispanic community a tremendous underperformance relative to the rest of the society and you have to ask yourself why is this something about the people or is it about the structure in which

they live. secondly, i think class has a lot to do with the dynamic we're seeing now. there are a lot of people, certainly minority people who are working in these front line jobs that are now considered essential, but they're not receiving essential wages, right? there are minimum wage jobs primarily and they're the most impacted. as steve again said, unable to be done remotely. so i think there are a whole bunch of conditions here that we're now seeing in stark relief because of this pandemic. and aside from the systemic racism that we're trying to deal with together, we're going to have to look much deeper than that and see what are the impacts of those racist policies or a long, long time on the ability of people in different parts of the society to survive these kinds of crises. >> heather, as fernando says, this has pulled back the curtain, this pandemic on so much about american society and about the people who are most vulnerable in so many ways because of where they already were, not necessarily because of

where they got sick or necessarily because someone in their family got sick, but they are exposed to what this pandemic has done to the country economically. what do you see in some of those numbers that steve just ran us through? >> i see behind some of those numbers something that gives me pause when i think about education being the answer. it's true as fernando said that there are absolutely those disparities in the quality of our schools and most porchbtly the quantity of the funding that goes to them. majority white districts get about 23 billion dollars a year more than majority children of color public school districts. but the african-american experience has shown that education doesn't protect you entirely. the black and white wage gap and the black and white unemployment gap is high at every level of income and education. the racial wealth divide, which so much is part of what allows you to weather a storm or not, do you have savings, do you have

home ownership, do you have a pension? that is something that was created by racist public policy and has nothing to do with income and education, sadly, or very little. a black family that has gone to college has less wealth than a white family that has dropped out of high school. that's specifically about racist decisions that our country made and our wealth building over the course of the 20th century. so we can, just as we thought about larace explicitly for mos of our history, we need to think about race today. so we've got a lot of proposals on the table that deal not just with the job losses, which i think is important, but at the same time, we are deliberately freezing our economy. and, of course, the pandemic is still here, it's worse in many places than it was at what we still call the peak, even though we know it's actually not going to be the peak. so in some ways, it's not about job losses. it's about do people have enough money to stay home and stay safe? that's why it's been almost 7

weeks since the house passed a necessary bill to address the nation's economic and public health challenges and the republican senate has taken a vacation instead of picking it up. i think that is absolutely unkoshsble. we have a wave of evictions and foreclosures barreling down on american families which would be totally unnecessary pain and the congress can do something about it. we're still in crisis here. we have the tools to fix it and to pay target-like attention on the communities hurting the most. what we're missing is political will. >> and add in the prospect of schools being closed so those parents have to be home schooling their children and taking care of their children. jonathan lamere, injury up next. you're up next. >> hey, steve, i want you to know that your charts have become a staple of my thursday morning. so thank you for those. willie tipped my hand, if you will, in terms of my question

here. we have the president and the white house banking on an economic recovery to be the centerpiece of his political fortunes. i think if the economy picks up, he has a shot to be re-elected, but with the virus surging, with some states rolling back their reopenings wrb with the possibility of schools maybe not reopening this fall, how soft is the economic recovery do you see? how fragile are these numbers? is this all going to go away? is there any chance that it won't if the vie was keeps surging like this? >> we're all watching this very, very closely. because it seems logical to all of us that as states shut down again, cities shut down again, it will have an economic impact. you can see some of that in other kinds of realtime data that credit card spending has rolled over. you look at open table reservations, they've started to recover, they're turning down a little bit. i don't think any of us yet want

to predict the outcome of this because it is so unprecedented, so hard to do. but there are some worries, some signs out there. and by the way, running at 1.5 million new claims for unemployment insurance is worrisome, too, in part because those don't seem to be as likely to be pandemic related job losses as they may be more structural job losses and companies deciding, we don't need many more people. the economy and our business will be slow. so it's a very difficult time to predict, but i would say there is a lot of concerns in the economics profession that this recovery is not coming back nearly as fast as we had hoped it would. >> fernando, let me ask you about the bigger picture here as we've been looking at some polling about the upcoming presidential election nbc news "wall street journal" poll shows joe biden creaming president trump among latino voters. what is driving that specifically and why do you think the president is suffering so badly?

>> well, i think that his relentless attack on hispanic people since the day he came downstairs and pronounced mechanics ken men rapists and drug dealers and so forth, and everything else he has done, babies in jails, it's not auto a winning formula. however, he's very weak with latinos, other polls shows he's growing no position in cases. i think in the end, there will be an effort to turn out hispanics in 2016. hispanics provided a significant part of his margin in key states in the battlegrounds. at the same time, as your survey has shown, there's a bit of a lack of enthusiasm at this point for biden among younger people and hispanics are disproportionately a younger population. so there's a lot of work to be done by democrats both at the dpan level, but more broadly

throughout the political system to make sure the hispanics at this particular election turn out much bigger elections than they did in 2016. if we can go back to the rough performance of hispanics in 2012 when we significant margin, that would provide vice president biden a certain margin of safety for his re-election. >> heather if you look at that nbc poll on the two major issues of this day, the president is down in the 30s. 37% on his handling of the pandemic. 33% on his handling of race relations. this conversation that's been at the heart of the country for the last couple of months. what is your view of the state of the race right now? poll after poll has showed double digit spreads nationally. joe biden leading in battleground states, though not by huge margins. is there a risk of complacency here? >> absolutely. let's be very clear.

this is today's news. today's crises. we have always known that donald trump would be not great in a crisis, that his particular level of maturity is not well set up to lead when times are really rough, and we've also always known that he uses racism to divide americans, to try to line his own pockets and those of the class that he really represents. so those two numbers are not surprising. but there could be a lot of surprises between now and november and, most importantly, unfortunately, the president's party has seen their withering chances at the ballot box across the country and decided to try to shrink the electorate rather than change what they stand for to appeal to more americans. so it's going to be a fight. the long lines that we saw in the primaries this spring and summer are just a small preview of the kind of poll station closures, the kind of attacks on vote by mail, the kinds of purges of people who are already

registered to vote. it is going to be a dog fight to the very end. and hopefully when it's over, we'll have a new sense of the importance of a nonpartisan administration of our elections and for parties to actually fight it out on the merits and not on rigging the rules in their favor. >> yeah, no one thinks this is going to be an easy race. heather mcgee, fernando and steve rattner, great conversation. thank you for being here. let's turn to assistant professor at harvard school of public health, joseph allen. he's got a new piece in "the washington post" entitled "need some good news about covid-19? here are six reasons for optimism." joseph, good morning. we could all use a little optimism. one of the areas where you see hope and you're optimistic is in masking which seems to have caught on as you write in the piece. there are some areas, like the governor of georgia will not hand down those mandates or support mandates city by city, but for the most part, i'll go

back to the nbc/"wall street journal" poll, americans are wearing mask. 74% of americans say they always wear a mask when nay go out. that number is up just over a month ago. so where else do you see optimism? >> yeah, so good morning, thanks. that's great we finally turned the corner on masks. there are benefits to mask wearing. we can control the spread if the majority -- vast majority of us wear masks. in other areas a bit under the radar, a lot of signs of hope. this is because when you have every scientist in the world focusing on the same problem at the same time, it's inevitable we'll have these advancements. one that i think of is therapeutics will be vaccines. we've already seen this with remdesivir and dexamethasone but also monoclonal antibodies. your body develops a response to this virus, develops antibodies. these monoclonal antibodies are

engineered and look like they're working. they are working. we should expect to see these in the fall. another area that's really important is in testing. a colleague of mine at the harvard school of public health wrote about this in "the new york times." rapid saliva-based testing. imagine a home pregnancy test but for covid-19. in this case, the saliva test, strip of paper goes in your mouth. really cheap. rapid response and that can free up the economy a bit because it will give people confidence. you want to go into a store, a school, a theater. take that rapid test. here's something counterintuitive about this. it doesn't even have to be a perfect test. if it's cheap and the answer comes back quickly, even if it's inaccurate because you can take it every day, it can significantly slow the spread across the population. there's some other positive signs. several pieces of research showing 20 to 50% of people who have never been exposed to this virus still have immune cells

that react to this virus. now the speculation is that this is because of past exposure to other common cold coronaviruses. there appears to be some cross-reactivity. what this means and how much benefit it provides is unknown. but there are signs happening that scientific breakthroughs are happening. >> and you point out vaccine trials seem to be working. some good news early this week. obviously, it's early in the process, but some of the vaccine trials do show effective innocence some of those patients. how soon are you looking at a vaccine, and how revolutionary will it to be what we're witnessing every day to actually have the vaccine out there because it's one thing to have it. it's quite another to produce enough to get through the country and distribute it quickly. >> yeah, that's right. there's great news on vaccines this week. just a couple of months ago, just months ago, we were not even sure we could have a vaccine for this coronavirus. and in the history of vaccine

development, it has taken years to develop a vaccine. this will be the fastest by far and the signs are all positive. you point out an important caveat. the vaccine will be ready by the end of this year as my colleague jew juliette kayem points out. the hard part is going to be the manufacture and distribution. we should be working on that right now. but i'm more confident in the therapeutics in terms of beating it. vaccine is the end game. >> all right, joseph allen of the harvard school of public health with some reasons to be optimistic this morning. we could use them. thanks so much. that does it for us this morning. we'll be right back here tomorrow on "morning joe." for now, stephanie ruhle picks up our coverage after a short break.

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trusted by some of the largest companies in the world. and that's why you trust us. the most reliable network in america. hi there. i'm stephanie ruhle. it's july 16th. here are the facts at this hour. overnight, the number of coronavirus cases hit a new milestone in the united states. 3.5 million people across this country. that is more than india, russia, peru chile, mexico, the uk and south africa combined. more than 138,000 americans have lost their lives, including about 1,000 on wednesday alone. according to "the new york times," deaths are now increasing in at least 22 states. hospitalizations are up, too. states like florida, arizona and texas are running low on icu