good afternoon. there are just 57 days left in the presidential race. and now the campaigns are getting more intense and more public. joe biden moves to defend his polling lead against a campaign of fear and division, while the president continues to hope that inciting more fear and more division will motivate white suburban voters to re-elect him. from the looks of the available information with only two months to go, the president is in an increasingly weak position. "the new york times" puts it like this. no president has entered labor

day weekend as such a clear underdog since george bush in 1992. the u.s. unemployment rate is still at 8.4%. 190,000 deaths from the coronavirus. let me repeat that. 190,000 dead americans. there is unrest in cities across the nation over police brutality and racial injustice. and now the president is on defense after a report in the atlantic late last week that he called americans who died in battle losers and suckers. those are the headwinds the president is facing as a new cbs poll of likely voters has joe biden leading donald trump 52-42. it might come as no surprise then that the president has been trying to recast his handling of the economic damage suffered from the coronavirus and his response to the virus itself. the president held a press conference at the white house

today to do just that, but he had some trouble sticking to the facts. he painted an overly rosie picture of the economy, even though just over half of the 22 million total jobs lost between february and april have still not returned and he struggled to defend himself against accusations that his push for a covid vaccine has focussed more on pal ti on politics and science. >> yes. >> you have asserted repeatedly that a vaccine will be on the market by before the election. >> no, i didn't say they will. i said by the end of the year. no, but you're not quoting me accurately. i said that vaccines will be on the market by the end of the year, but they may even be developed and fully develop and tested and everything else. >> for the record, the president just quoted a november 1st delivery date for a vaccine last

week. he even said it might come before a very special day. earlier in that news conference, again, that's before election day. meanwhile joe biden made his 7th trip to pennsylvania since the pandemic and he also focussed on coronavirus, defending himself against accusations that he doesn't want a vaccine because it will hurt his election chances. >> i want full transparency on a vaccine. one of the problems is he's playing with politics is he said so many things that aren't true and i'm worried if we do have a vaccine, people will be afraid to take it. thank god we have it. if i could get a vaccine tomorrow, i'd do it. if it cost me the election, i'd do it. we need a vaccine, and we need it now. >> you have to listen to the scientists. >> in a few moments joe biden will be meeting with the group's headquarters in harrisburg,

pennsylvania and the labor day weekend marks another first for the campaigns. this is the first time both candidates for vice president are on the trail on the same day in the same state. vice president mike pence and senator kamala harris are on opposite ends of wisconsin, a battleground state, increasingly essential to president trump's electoral map. a cbs news poll of wisconsin voters finds joe biden ahead of the president 50/44. the vice president is in lacrosse and senator harris is making her first trip to the battleground state since joining the democratic ticket. she is expected to speak at a round table with black business leaders and pastors in milwaukee later this hour. we'll bring you those remarks live once they happen. but leading off our discussion this hour are robert gibbs, former press secretary in the obama administration. and christina greer, associate professor of political science.

both of you welcome. i notice in that news conference and there is a ton to talk to. the president kept saying his first and only priority is to keep americans safe, and that's one he has been tauting this vaccine. at the same time, he's not wearing a mask. he's not social distancing at his rallies. in fact, he's encouraging people not to wear masks. look at this exchange he had with one of the white house reporters as he tried to ask the president a question just today. >> you're going to have to take that off, please. how many feet are you away. >> i'll speak a lot louder. >> if you don't take it off, you're very muffled. so if you would take it off. >> i can speak a lot louder. is that better? >> it's better, yeah. it's better. >> robert, his actions do not match up with our words.

are americans seeing this? are the americans that will sway the election seeing this? >> well, i think if you look at some of the polling last week, the amount of people that can swing this election and haven't already made up their minds is a tiny, tiny number. but i do think every time he goes out and tries to demonstrate leadership on something like the coronavirus, something like this happens, and it undermines that message. i think these press conferences at the white house have far reached their point of diminishing marginal reasons. i think there is very little to be gained. yet, he still continues to do it. jeff mason is probably one of the nicest human beings on the planet. so to get into an argument with jeff about wearing a mask, it shows you the kind of leader from a public health perspective that donald trump has been as president, and it is no wonder that we have seen just a botched attempt at blunting what never had to be the way it is right

now. >> even if jeff mason was one of the meanest people you have ever come into contact with, still arguing with him over whether to wear a mask is not in the public health -- it is not good for anybody to have someone not wear a mask. you should be practicing that social responsibility when you are in public, especially when you are in national television in a public place to show it matters and the president should be the one helping him to do so. meanwhile, christina, the vice president -- the former vice president joe biden is out there saying the president is waiving the white flag on covid saying that the president is not actually fighting the fight. he isn't living up to his words. let's listen to this, and i've got a question on the other end. >> he is just sort of waived the white flag on dealing with covid. and he, all he wants to do is just re-open, but the way he is reopening is causing us to, you know, shut down. look at what's happening with

schools right now. you have kids trying to get them back in school right now. it's pretty tough. >> how effective is that dueling imagery of both the president arguing with jeff mason, not wearing a mask himself, those campaign rallies and then joe biden at a socially distant round table wearing a mask the entire time? >> i think joe biden is showing he's not only got leadership but empathy. this is not just 190,000 plus americans who have died. this is 190,000 families who have lost someone, 190,000 communities. for those of us who live in new york, next week or later on this week, we're going to solemnly remember what happened on 9/11 when almost 3,000 americans died. this is 9/11 happening on a consistent basis numbers-wise and the president is shrugging his shoulders. he's talking about the economy. he's talking about everything but the grieving so many americans are going through, not just emotionally because of a

virus that didn't need to spread this wide but also so many families are worried about the financial ramifications, businesses that have been lost, evictions coming down the pike, occupations and jobs that will never come back. so there is widespread failure on so many different levels by the president. and then you have joe biden who is leading by example. i don't think anyone wants to campaign with masks on, i don't think anyone wants to have social distancing. we know about campaigns. it is about pressing the flesh, touching voters and listening to them and hearing what they have to say. joe biden can't do that. but he's doing his best to try to understand the plight of americans, something that donald trump, you know, time and time again has just shown that he can't do and he's just quite honestly not interested in doing. >> so we have the economy that is not good for millions and millions and millions of americans. we have the virus, which is approaching 200,000 dead. it could get up to 400,000 later

this year if mask wearing is disregarded, social distancing disregarded. but then you have also the president playing defense, robert, on this military story, this story that dropped in the atlantic where the president said soldiers that died in war are losers and suckers. it is very detailed. people in the white house have gone on the record to say that it's not true, but that's basically the press job. the people that were in the story, john kelly has not come out and said this is not true. we haven't heard anything from general jim mattis, who was the president's defense secretary. when you talk about who is swayable in this election, do stories like this turn people? do they move the needle for those people who are on the fence, or is it like the john mccain story back in 2015 when the president went after john mccain, everybody assumed that that was the death nail for his campaign and he only got

stronger after that? >> i do think this is troublesome for the president. as you mentioned and at that news conference was asked pointedly had he asked john kelly to come out and say this wasn't true. he said he hadn't and my guess is because he didn't want john kelly to let the world know what is true, that the quotes in that story sound an awful lot like the president that many americans have heard. i do think this affects even the small number of people that have yet to make up their minds or are yet persuadable because i think stories like this when you see the president at a news conference or you see his activities and rhetoric last week, they see not somebody who is putting chaos in its place, i think they see somebody who is foemting chaos. what they see is and they're trying to project a person that looks, talks and acts

presidential versus somebody that doesn't. and you mentioned that poll with wisconsin. if you look at the eight sort of swing state polls that we have seen over the past four or five days, there are eight polls in five swing states. all five of those states donald trump won in 2016. he's currently leading in none of them. his average is 44%. he's polling his under 2016 result in every one of them and joe biden is polling above what hillary clinton got in every one of them. so the president is in a terrible position with eight weeks to go. >> robert, but there is going to be a lot of people out there who will say the polls didn't show him winning in 2016. why should we rely on these polls right now two months before the election? >> and, look, everybody is going to have 2016 flashbacks until the vote is in in 2020 and those

that want a different result see it. again, i would say joe biden is polling at a different level than hillary clinton got in those states, so he's showing and demonstrating a stronger candidacy than the one that hillary clinton had just four years ago. undoubtedly, we've still got some big moments left in this campaign. three weeks from tomorrow will be the first presidential debate. it will be a big debate, undoubtedly and probably maybe bigger than we have seen in a while in presidential contests because we just haven't had the churning day-to-day of a political campaign because of this pandemic. so there is definitely twists and turns to go. but if you are one of the campaigns right now, you would rather be where joe biden is. the biggest thing we haven't talked about is "the new york times" talking about the trump campaign having money problems. just a few months ago, everyone thought joe biden wouldn't have the money and donald trump had more money than they know what to do. now they seem to be cutting tv

because they don't have that money. it shows you the relative strengths and weaknesses. >> you beat me to that question, which is how much does money matter at this point? how much does television campaigning matter at this point in the race, especially since we're in a pandemic and you can't do as christina was saying the glad handing that campaigning rely on. >> it does mean a lot. it means you are able to project a message in a place you may not be every day. on a newscast that you're not on every night. so i do think it is important, particularly now, again, when you can't project quite like you used to be able to. and, again, i think it is stunning. joe biden raised $365 million last month, which is -- that in and of itself is stunning. but it is remarkable that a campaign that was bragging about all of its resources is now cutting television, is now cutting those ads, whether it's on broadcast tv or on digital. it is a stunning development. money shouldn't matter at this

point in a race because everyone should have so much of it that you're trying to figure out what to spend it on. but it is remarkable if you have a campaign like the president's campaign literally not advertising in places because of a money crunch. >> and "the new york times" is reporting they cut that funding because he wasn't seeing any effect in the polling of what that funding was doing. on that note, christina, on them not having as much money and them being, i'm sure, where to spend it, how to best use it, "the washington post" had a really great summary of how the president is campaigning right now, what he's relying on. it is not his record. for president trump and his allies, it was a week spent spreading doctors and misleading videos, disseminating videos at a rapid clip through the use of selectively edited videos, deceptive videos. the slew of misleading tweets stood in contrast to the

approach made by biden, the former vice president who in 2019 took a pledge promising not to participate in the spread of disinformation over social media, including rejecting the use of deep fake videos. what does it say to you that he's relying on lies to campaign right now? >> this is also a campaign right now that i call the spaghetti noodle campaign. you can't decide or understand how they want to attack joe biden and kamala harris. one they day're s're saying he' the radical left. the other he's part of the hyper democrats. so they don't have a strategy. they can't run on the president's record. how can you run on a record when a 190,000 plus americans have died and the number keeps counts? how can you run on a record where it is 8.4 unemployment and we know that's drastically

underreported. we know for black and latino communities, that is much higher. how can you run on a record where he says everything is fake and he's golfing when other families are at funerals. yes, it is not surprising that this president is relying on, you know, the support from qanon and other noncredible news sources. it is not surprising he is using a desperate tactic because this is a president and administration that don't really have a strategy, especially a campaign strategy. this is a president who didn't actually want to govern. this is something that, you know, he thought he would lose and spend the next four years harassing hillary clinton and making money off of it. now he sees this is a job much harder and he's not capable. he knows it and doesn't know how to get out of the situation. >> one last quick question. who are you more focussed on right now, the voter that voted for obama and then voted for trump or the voter that did not

come out for hillary clinton in 2016? >> i'm focussed on the voter that did not come out, and i'm really focussed on how biden and harris are going to motivate that voter. >> thanks so much. robert, thank you as well. thanks for starting us off really strongly at this hour. we appreciate it. coming up, the financial storm created by the pandemic. while friday's jobs report had a glimmer of hope, the rate of permanent job losses went up, and the thousands of people showing up at food banks across the country showed just how desperate the situation is for some right now. that's next. and later, with just 57 days until election day, steve kornacki will join us with who is leading in the key battleground states. stay with us. we will be right back. d customir

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on this labor day, new data from the u.s. department of labor shows that the coronavirus pandemic is still battering the labor market. 881,000 filed new unemployment claims. 29 million people or one out of every five american adults were receiving some form of unemployment assistance as of mid-august. the unemployment rate sits right now at 8.4%. employers added 1.4 million jobs last month, down from 1.7 in july. and the fewest since hiring resume back in may. permanent job losses are also of great concern with 3.4 million people reporting their jobs are gone for good. today president trump said this about the economy, despite its biggest shock in at least 73 years in the second quarter. >> we are in the midst of the fastest economic recovery in

u.s. history. >> as the coronavirus pandemic continues, many out of work americans are grappling with hunger. "the new york times" magazine reports, quote, in the pandemic economy, nearly one in eight households does not have enough to eat. food banks around the country are struggling to keep up with the demand. on thursday, in los angeles, 1,800 people turned to a food bank in athens park. joining us now is a pulitzer prize winning columnist for "the new york times," co-author of the book "tightrope" available in paper book. nick, thanks so much for being here. i think there is a certain percentage of the population that thinks, yeah, the economy is coming back. i got my job back. things are starting to pick up. but there are still millions of americans that have nowhere to go and their lifelines have just run out between the unemployment benefits that were cutoff, the

lack of another bill from congress to supplement income for those who have lost their jobs. and just take a look at the lines for food banks around the country. you don't need to go far. you can walk out the street in new york city and see the lines. i'm sure you can see that in most towns and see the people in your neighborhood who are currently struggling right now. >> yeah. i mean, as you say, katie, we did have something of a rebound with the jobs, but there are still 11 million fewer americans with jobs now than there were in march. and it does increasingly seem that many of those job losses will be permanent. this didn't need to be. in germany the unemployment rate has risen 1% since then. in the u.s. it is almost doubled. and, so, you know, the consequences -- and of course these losses are disproportionately born on those who are least able to have the

resources to support them, particularly households with children, for example. one study suggested that just over one-third of households with children under 18 are struggling to feed those children. you know, the -- another study indicated that depression has increased by -- there has been a three field increase in depression because of unemployment that is related to covid. and you mentioned my book "tightrope." that is about how unemployment rippled through a community and kind of destroyed it and left a quarter of the kids on my old school bus dead from drugs, alcohol and suicide. i fear that we are now seeing very rapidly unfold what had happened in slow motion in previous years. >> you say it didn't need to be this way. you cited what happened in germany. why are we set up this way?

why is our society set up to allow millions of americans to go hungry and to struggle and to fall through the cracks? it doesn't benefit the entire society. it doesn't benefit anybody if you have millions of people who can't get by. >> there is a callusness, frankly, that has taken route in the last 50 years in this country. and, you know, i have to say that it's not just on the right that we have in this country seen people too often measure jobs simply in terms of the income stream not understand that concept of the dignity of work and the value, the sense of dedication that people get with the job. and accompanying that, there has been the rise of this narrative about how it's all about personal responsibility and people can lift themselves up by their boot straps. and when that phrase, lifting oneself up by the boot straps

originated, it was a mocking expression, it was a joking expression about doing something impossible. and now it is an instruction for what people are supposed to do to help themselves and their families at a time when jobs are unavailable. >> our system is set up on inequality. its foundation is inequality. you write this in "the new york times." you wrote it in july, actually. perhaps today's national fear and loss can also be a source of hope. we may be desperate. our failures so man nest that the united states can once more as during the great depression imbraes long needed changes that would have impossible in cheerier times. i know a lot of people were hoping this would be the moment that we figure out a way to keep an even bottom for everybody in this country. it doesn't seem like, by the looks of what's happening in congress that anything is happening, that there is going

to be any systemic change in the near term. >> it depends how you define next january as to whether that's near term or not. let me give you a hopeful narrative -- >> the next few months. >> you know, i think too often in this country we blame the broader problems we face over the last 50 years on industrialization, globalization and technology. canada and germany went through these forces, and they do not lose one person every seven minutes from a drug overdose. they did not see the social fabric disintegrate the way it did many this country. we for 50 years, we're the only country that doesn't have universal health care, universal paid sick leave. i think in a pandemic, those shortcomings are a little more obvious than they are. i hope this will, like the election of 1932, lead to a mandate for far-reaching change, so we will be a little more like

canada and europe. >> it's made it even more glaring. think of all the americans who have private health insurance who no longer have private health insurance because they have lost their jobs. >> exactly. >> thanks so much for joining us. we always appreciate all of your insight on this topic. and coming up, kamala harris is not buying the claim that there will be a coronavirus vaccine by the election, especially from the president who, as she says, told us to inject bleach. that's next. (driver) i don't know what happened. (burke) this? eh, nothing happened. (driver) nothing happened? (burke) nothing happened. (driver) sure looks like something happened. (burke) well, you've been with farmers for three years with zero auto claims. (driver) yeah? (burke) so you earned your policy perk: accident forgiveness. now instead of this being something, it' s-

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an nbc news tally shows that the death toll from the coronavirus in the united states is now approaching 200,000. as of this hour, 190,178 people have died of coronavirus in the united states, with more than 6.3 million confirmed cases. the university of washington says the worst could be yet to come, projecting the u.s. coronavirus death toll will double to more than 410,000 by the end of the year if masks and social distancing guidelines are disregarded. and "the washington post" reports, quote, president trump is so fixated on finding a vaccine for the novel coronavirus, that in meeting

about the u.s. pandemic response little else captures his attention, according to administration officials. in recent days, he has told some advisers and aids a vaccine may arrive by november 1st, which just so happens to be two days before the presidential election. hours ago, donald trump said this about the vaccine. >> we're going to have a vaccine very soon, maybe even before a very special date. you know what date i'm talking about. >> you're talking about election day. the centers for disease control and prevention has now notified all 50 states to prepare to distribute a coronavirus vaccine to health care workers and other high risk groups as soon as late october or early november. on friday, joe biden told donors saying my guess is he's going to announce a vaccine. he's going to say it's available around election day.

he's going to hype it. >> president trump has promised a coronavirus vaccine by the end of the year or maybe sooner. would you trust that vaccine? >> i think that we have learned since this pandemic started but really before that that there is very little that we can trust that comes out of donald trump's mouth. i will not take his word for it. he wants us to inject bleach. no, i will not take his word. >> joining us now is an internal medicine physician and an msnbc medical contributor. doctor, always good to have you. what do you need to know in order to trust that a vaccine is safe once one does become available. >> good to see you as always. happy labor day, katie. they will all say they're egg early awaiting a vaccine. there is no question about that. but the issue is that the vaccine, remember, this is going to be a medication that we plan to inoculate into two, three hundred million people in this

country, not to mention globally. we need absolute reassurance that this medication, this vaccine, has undergone all the appropriate phases of clinical trials in terms of safety and ethicacy. and so as you probably know, the vaccines that are undergoing clinical trials right now, phase three, that's that phase where it's testing not only a large number of people, 30,000 or 40,000. it is not just the number but it is the time line. it is monitoring for potential adverse events. you can't just notice those things in just 20 or 30 days if there are neurologic problems, cardiologic. just to remind your viewers, the fastest we have ever developed a vaccine for safe delivery into patients has been four years. the fact that we're trying to do this for this novel disease in less than a year, it's -- it

makes a lot of us quite skeptical, katie. >> when you take polling and ask people whether they are going to think this vaccine is safe, we'll show you some of the results. if a coronavirus vaccine came out this year in 2020, what would your first thought be? 65% said it was probably rushed without enough testing. 35% say it's a scientific achievement to find a vaccine that fast. part of the reason you are getting these numbers is that the president has politicized everything, every institution that we have, the fbi, the doj. but now also the fda and the cdc are public health institutions by pushing through emergency approvals for things like plasma or hydroxychloroquine. when we're talking about a vaccine and we're talking about a global pandemic, obviously there is a need to get a vaccine as soon as possible, but also one that is safe. how do you balance those two?

at what point is it safe to put out a vaccine? in your estimation. i know these are all very vague ideas right now, but would an early 2021 one seem like a reasonable time line? >> i remember when i was in grad school one of my professors said, you know, the hallmark of intelligence isn't the answer one gives but the questions one asks. so the way i would refrain polling questions to the public is how willing are you to take a vaccine that's going to be inside of your body for the rest of your life that has not undergone the most rigorous safety and testing processes? that's the question i would ask. and if it's framed in that way, knowing that this vaccine could be adverse consequences, my guess is that the numbers would be much lower. you know, everything in life is a trade-off, katie, and everything we do certainly in medical research is a trade-off. so it is a question of balancing

safety with rigorous science and research and keeping people safe, katie. >> it always is. thanks so much for joining us. we appreciate all of your time. coming up, the election has already started, at least in one key battleground state where voters have already received their mail-in ballots. a tireless fighter for voting rights, up next she'll tell us how vote by mail efforts are going as the president continues to cast doubt, undermine the entire process. i've been laying out since march. we'll develop and deploy rapid tests with results available immediately. we'll make the medical supplies and protective equipment that our country needs. we'll make them here in america. we'll have a national mandate to wear a mask, not as a burden, but as a patriotic duty to protect one another.

in short, we'll do what we should have done from the very beginning. our current president has failed in his most basic duty to the nation. he's failed to protect america. and my fellow americans, that is unforgivable. as president, i'll make you a promise. i'll protect america. i will defend us from every attack seen and unseen, always without exception, every time. i'm joe biden and i approve this message. ( ♪ ) ready to juvéderm it? correct age-related volume loss in cheeks with juvéderm voluma xc, add fullness to lips with juvéderm ultra xc and smooth moderate to severe lines around the nose and mouth with juvéderm xc. tell your doctor if you have a history of scarring or are taking medicines

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and ask your doctor if biktarvy is right for you. ♪ eve♪ going faster than a closerollercoaster ♪are. ♪ love like yours will surely come my way ♪ ♪ a-hey, a-hey-hey [music playing] ♪ love like yours will surely come my way ♪ the early voting process has already started in one key battleground state, north carolina is the first state to send out absentee ballots which started going out on friday and the first votes of the 2020 presidential election could be cast as early as this week. each state works on a different election time line, including

voter registration deadlines that ranges from some states that allow voters to register at the polls on election day to others with registration deadlines as far as 30 days before the election. that means voter registration efforts in many states now have less than one month to get eligible voters registered. joining us now is the co-founder of black voters matter fund. it is always great to see you. thank you for joining us today. tell me about your efforts so far this year. what are you noticing? >> so what i'm noticing is that in spite of all the misinformation and in spite of the president's latest attempt to make people be fearful of this election cycle, we're seeing an increasing demand that people are intending to vote. when you look at north carolina that just started their absentee ballot process, they have had over 600 applications for their absentee mail-in voting as opposed to four years ago when

there were only 28,000. so that's a significant difference and a significant demand. what we have been seeing in the states we have been working in, we were working deeply in 11 states and 15 as well that in those states people are saying they're asking us, we're getting phone calls every day about how to vote, how to do their mail-in voting. there is some healthy skepticism around early voting. a lot of people have been saying they're planning to vote, but they're going to vote early. >> so when i was a trump event the other day, i talked to voters and every single one at this trump event told me they thought ballots were fraud and they thought the election would be stolen if they were to go on. are you finding the reaction to mail-in voting is down party lines or is there crossover between democrats and republicans who don't trust that process? >> there is a skepticism across the board because particularly african-american voters don't

trust in mail-in voting and they don't trust the process. you have a sitting president creating doubt in it. i think you do see that across the board. i think that's what the intention of president trump was to do that literally that part of what he has been doing is pushing propaganda so he can create this culture of fear. what gives me hope is i have been seeing people that say regardless of the process they will vote early, that there are people that are adamant they are going to do mail-in voting or vote in person, but they are going to vote. there is a skepticism, often a lot of conversation around mail-in voting because people don't understand if the processes -- if there is integrity in the process. you have the highest office in the land that is actually trying to cast doubt. the other piece -- >> go ahead. i interrupted. go ahead. keep on talking. >> i was going to say people really do trust the post office. while there are concerns, people

have, and i just want to say happy labor day to the millions of postal workers today that are continuing to serve us inspite of this, what is happening. >> just one quick question because your organization is on the ground. so many of us are stuck inside, for instance me in my basement. i'm not talking to as many voters as i would like to during an election season. give me an honest assessment of what you are seeing about enthusiasm to go out and vote between 2016 and 2020 or even 2018 and 2020. >> i think 2016 is a different kind of excitement. i don't know if you can compare. it is almost like apples and oranges. i think what you saw in 2016, that was a tremendous amount of concern in the election. so you saw -- when you saw when obama ran there was a lot of excitement. what i think you see now is people are angry. there are millions of people unemployed right now. you have a government that seems like it is faltering. you have got 100,000 -- over

160,000 people have died from covid-19. people are angry. and oftentimes that can push people to vote as well. that's what we're seeing on the ground. we are seeing a lot of energy of a lot of organizations and people daily who are saying that they are adamant and voting. >> anger can sometimes animate more people to vote than excitement. thank you for joining us. we appreciate all of your expertise. and coming up, two veep candidates in wisconsin today. steve kornacki will break down the state of that state and how the race to 270 electoral votes looks right now with again just 57 days until election day. stay with us. you're on it. staying fit and snacking light? yup, on it there too. you may think you're doing all you can to manage type 2 diabetes and heart disease...

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that state's race 57 days out, is msnbc national political correspondent steve kornacki, who is at the big board. i know you've got the general election average, steve, but i hope you're going to tell me a little bit more about these battleground states, including wisconsin, which donald trump barely won. >> yeah. i figured we'd start here because let's work our way from sort of the 30,000-foot view down to wisconsin and other states like it. i say this because the national polling right now shows -- and you can see it here -- about a seven-point lead for joe biden. one thing i think to keep in mind when you see this number now and as you see it over the next few months, of course, hillary clinton won the popular vote by a couple of points in 2016, but trump won the electoral college. what that means is when you see a national poll at about a seven-point lead for biden, you can expect that the key swing states are going to be a tick or two closer than that. so you go from that seven-point advantage for biden nationally right now. this is what the swing states look like right now. you can see, look, these were

six states that trump won in 2016 by varying margins. they are six states where biden in the polling right now leads. you can see his average lead in these states varies. but in each one of those states it is several points, i should say, closer than the national average. so that's a dynamic to keep in mind as you look at swing state polling in the weeks and in the two months ahead right now. we mentioned wisconsin. it's one of those three states where it was a fraction of a point. three states where trump won by less than one. three states that hadn't gone for a republican since the 1980s. three states obviously the democrats think they like their prospects in. look closely at wisconsin because that's the one not just where those candidates are today, but that's the one where the trump campaign has been saying between the republican convention, the events on the ground in kenosha, the trump focus on law and order, that's the one they think they can get movement in. that's the one they thought they would have movement in now. here's the cbs/yougov poll.

the margin for biden in that poll was six points. now they're out with a new poll. so we have the same pollster right before the convention in wisconsin, before kenosha in wisconsin, six, and now what do you have? six. so in that poll, unchanged. you see the average in wisconsin of all the different polls is basically right around there. that's a troubling sign if you're the trump campaign because, again, so much talk from the trump campaign about wisconsin being in sort of ground zero for where their message was going to resonate. what it means in terms of the battle for 270? this is where we left things in 2016. trump wins with 306. those three states where the margin was less than a point in 2016, where the polls right now put joe biden up, if those states flip and nothing else changes on this map, you can take a look right here what happens. if biden flips those three, he wins. 278 if nothing else changes.

katy? >> steve, you're so good that i had a question, but you answered all my questions as you went through all of that. so, steve, thank you very much. such a small margin for the president in 2016. it's not going to take much for joe biden to turn it back around if all things stay the same. steve, thanks so much. we've got much more still ahead coming up at the top of the next hour. we're going to look at the ongoing fallout from the stunning piece in "the atlantic" about donald trump and the mill. you are watching msnbc. e instea. (customer) tell me something i don't know. (burke) with your farmers policy perk, home guaranteed replacement cos, this can be rebuilt, no matter how much. (customer) that's really something. (burke) get a whole lot of something with farmers policy perks. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum,bum-bum-bum-bum ♪

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