to sound the alarm. president trump continues not to listen. last night was day four of his post covid tour to battle ground states. another packed rally with no social distancing and few masks. good morning and welcome to "morning joe." it is thursday, october 15th along with joe, willie and me we have from the associated press, jonathan lemire. washington anchor for bbc world news america, katty kay. good to have you all. i think we're grabbing kasie for a bit of conversation. >> yeah, kasie, i heard her say at the end of "way too early" about the warning from the biden camp. and it is an important warning with 19 days to go. we'll show some polls that show joe biden far ahead but if you talk to the biden people, they do say it's much closer and there's a great article this morning in "the times" by tom ed

sell and he talks about how much closer this race could be. first of all, there are a lot of white voters without college degrees who are registering who didn't vote in 2016 and also he quotes dave wasserman data in florida since the march primary, 195,000 republicans have been added to the rolls. only 98,000 democrats. in pennsylvania, republicans plus 135,000 and democrats only 57,000. in north carolina, republicans up 83,000. democrats only 38,000. and arizona is the exception where democrats are outperforming republicans, but etzel lays out a few data points that should give a lot of democrats reasons to worry with 19 days to go and to stop them from being as complacent as they were four years ago when mika

and i and willie and others would be yelled at for simply suggesting that donald trump could be elected president of the united states and get 270 electoral votes. >> well, i remember being laughed at, joe, when i said on this very program that when i was covering hillary clinton's campaign in the final weeks that it didn't feel like a winning one. i mean, they -- her staffers laughed at me as it turns out that was exactly what was happening. and, you know, i think it's a combination of things and you're right to point out to the signs that are under the radar that is what happened in 2016. there was a lot going on under the radar that the people missed. there are some signs that there is more potential republican strength than perhaps is being accounted for. there is also this question about people potentially getting complacent. this assumption that everything is fine, i don't need to vote. now, i think the major difference is people are living lives where everything is very much not fine. this is not a situation where it's been eight years of a

democratic administration, a status quo, an economy that's growing. people are suffering and hurting so i think that potentially is different. but making a strong run on biden's behalf, people like her, think she's doing a good job, that warning is very important and telling. the reality is we are basically a 50-50 country. if donald trump can't get to 50% then obviously he'll have a challenge pulling this out, especially considering how many unpredictable things have happened in the year, in 2020 it seems like a warning that is pretty relevant right about now, 19 days out. >> yeah. certainly does. thank you so much for sticking around, kasie. we appreciate it. you know, willie, after the arrogance we saw from the democrats and, yes, from the mainstream media four years ago, if you even suggested that donald trump might get to 270 electoral votes complete

arrogance, complete mocking attitude. it certainly -- this serves as a reminder and sort of a bucket of cold ice water over everybody's head saying this race is over, that we still have a long way to go. etzel also quotes a democratic strategist who's closely following day to day to day and he wrote in the privately circulated newsletter, quote, since last week, the share of white noncollege over 30 registration in the battle ground states has up increased by 10% and democratic margins have dropped ten points to just six points. there are serious signs of political engagement by white noncollege voters who had not cast ballots in previous elections. all of this, bad news for democrats and something that may be happening under the radar. i do -- just to be even handed

here, etzel also says for instance, that biden may be losing support among hispanic voters in a way that hillary clinton didn't, but that's more than offset by the number of white catholics that are breaking his way. other demographic groups that are breaking back biden's way that weren't with him in 2016. this is not to say that joe biden is going to lose, but etzel brings up a lot of great points to suggest exactly what joe biden's campaign manager said last night, hey this race a lot closer than people on twitter think it is. and as you talk to people as i have on both sides this isn't a race of seven, ten, 12 points. in the swing states it's one, two, maybe four in michigan. maybe four in wisconsin. maybe three, four in pennsylvania. maybe two in north carolina.

it is tight. and any shift, dramatic shift in the next two weeks towards donald trump makes it a toss-up election. >> no question about it. i heard what you're describing yesterday from the biden campaign specifically about a q poll out of georgia that had them up seven points. this person said there's no way on earth we are up seven points in the state of georgia, so i think to me that's the difference right there. which is that four years ago there was in fact some complacency. there was this feeling that really donald trump rolling their eyes, the game show host, is going to become the president. you don't pick up any of that right now from the biden campaign. in fact, i think they wish at this point that some of these polls weren't public so voters didn't become complacent about this. the other thing, besides the campaign not being complacent we have had four years of donald trump being president. four years ago at this moment there was this theoretical president of donald trump, what he could be. maybe he could be a disrupter.

maybe he could be that boardroom guy who can make deals. we have seen what his presidency has wrought, in terms of the coronavirus and now voters have a view of what donald trump as president really is. jonathan lemire, you have been covering this in the state of pennsylvania in terms of voter registration. does "the times" piece follow with what you're seeing as far as more republicans registering right now? >> these are the data points that trump campaign has been pointing to for a while. and let's be clear, the white working class, noncollege educated voter, who hasn't voted in the past, who indicated they'd vote now. that's who they have been after this whole time. they have been saying, and they do -- they have had a significant field operation, at this point, greater ground game than the democrats have. it's been in place for a lot

longer. president trump said he was running for re-election on his inauguration day. as much of the demographic shifts are breaking away from him writ large, they feel there are more voters are to be had. now, it's very hard, very expensive, to find low propensity voters or nonvoters for get them to come out. they point to exactly this. the increase in gop registrations in some of the key battle grounds. pennsylvania, chief among them. but also, places like florida and north carolina and they feel according -- people who have registered to vote for first time tend to also to vote that time around in that election. having just registered a few weeks before. so that is what they're pointing to. as well as they always say, signs of enthusiasm, like the unbelievable amount of yard signs you see for trump, comparatively low for biden. the biden campaign is having

smaller events, socially is distanced. not only are they being responsible by sending a message that's how things should be done. the trump campaign we saw it last night with a massive rally in des moines, iowa, they're not doing that. they want the images of the big crowds. few in masks, little to no social distancing. so these are the markers that the trump campaign is excited about. they feel like this is a close race. i have talked to strategists like joe said who said in most of the battle ground states don't believe it's eight or nine or ten points in the polls. it's much more like one, two, three, four. let's throw a little bit of the cold water on the trump enthusiasm, they have to play real defense. we're 19 days out. yes, they're spending a lot of time in wisconsin and florida. he's going to wisconsin this weekend. his staff said as of next week he'll have two to three rallies a day. but he had to go to iowa last night. he has to go to georgia later this weekend. we may not quite believe that q poll but that race there is

tight as well. he has to spend money. he's having to spend his most valuable asset his time in places that he didn't think he'd have to a few months ago. every time he goes to georgia there's a time he can't go to pennsylvania. >> so then to -- one more point on this conversation, which is important to have and if you look at those crowds, these rallies are what he loves to do. i thought there was a thousand people in one of the crowds, it was 7,000. so the rallies in the middle of a pandemic are bringing a turnout that is pretty impressive. and joe, as we have discussed before there was one day -- one day four years ago that brought it all together for trump, that it all came together for him and he was surprised when he won the presidency of the united states. but to willie's point where he said, you know, voters have had a view now of what his presidency is like. what his policies are like. what his decisions are like. i would argue that trump voters don't have that view.

they don't have a clear view, they don't have the facts. i think there are certain networks and facebook and social media empires that are helping promulgate lies that they live by. i think that could be a dangerous brew as, you know, we talk about the potential for biden to struggle a bit or for one day to come together for him all over again. >> well, it can happen, it can happen. he told me, he said i could have had the election on ten days and i would have only won it one out of ten days that happened to be the one day where it fell just right for me. but it's not just the misinformation that is being spread on the other networks and on social media. that is part of it. you also though cannot underestimate and it's being talked about all the time, the

negative partisanship. i have heard from so many of my friends and family members who don't say they love donald trump. in fact, they don't say they like donald trump. in fact, they would not invite him over for dinner at thanksgiving. >> if their kids acted like him, their kids would get this trouble. >> their kids would be grounded. it is so -- it's anti- -- it's really negative partisanship. it's their fear of the democrats. it's their fear of woke nation. it's their fear that the kids will go to college and get abused for -- and get hammered because of political correctness. you can't say that on television without people freaking out. i'm just explaining it to you. political correctness is something that is not spoken of. it drives so much of donald

trump's support. how do i know? because i keep hearing it from one person after another, when i say how can you support this man who has breached every constitutional norm, who breached every societal norm. they'll talk about how democrats are socialists, they'll come back and talk about political correctness and wokeness. it's the negative partisanship even more than it is donald trump. i want to say also really quickly that when i talked to the trump campaign and sat down about a year ago, a year and a year and a half ago and they got a theory on the case on why they were going to win. their focus was pulling out noncollege white voters. and they were focusing on it maniacally. they would hold rallies.

they would get data. they would trace people, geotaging. they would follow those people. they would find the people that did not -- that weren't registered to vote, that had never voted before. they would do an all out political assault on them and get them out to the polls. that's exactly what we're starting to see right now. of course, at the end of the conversation, when i get this extraordinary song and dance which actually -- actually i believed about how they were doing all these things and using this technology, the person that i was talking to said, well, of course, this will help us if it's a one or two point margin. now this person even now, he said if it's five points one way or another, it won't make a difference. so i guess that's the question, if it's a close question, all of these things that trump has been doing for four years, his team

has been doing for four years what we're seeing in the numbers will make a difference. if it's a blowout, all you have been doing for four years won't make a difference. we're about to go to polls now, this is a good reset with everybody talking about how about joe biden will win. if i were the trump campaign the thing i would be fearing the most is just shear exhaustion. fearing what i would do when i was in the state of connecticut and went into the voting booth four years ago, i was in connecticut, i knew hillary was going to win. i looked at hillary as a life long republican i said i don't think i can vote for her. then i looked at trump's name i said i know him. i know i can't vote for him. then i wrote in jeb bush. i was just exhausted by it and that was four years ago. i walked out of the voting booth. i know a lot of other people who did that.

but four years later, how many evangelicals who say they support trump and look at his name there and say, i just can't do it? i'm not voting for joe biden. but i can't vote for donald trump. how many business people who look at their -- you know, their stocks will look and go, i have done really well. i just can't listen to this guy screaming for four more years. i need some peace. this country has been ripped apart. that would be my biggest concern. the undervote that donald trump may get from people who are just exhausted by this, going on day after day after day. >> yeah. i thought etzel's piece was really interesting. we have started to hear the stories of 2 million noncollege white voters in pennsylvania who didn't vote in 2016 who are there and that is why the trump campaign keeps playing to the

base. but the more thai, the trump campaign plays to the base the more he increases the exhaustion level around the rest of the country. right? it's sort of a -- you have to choose. you do a red meat which is constant drama which is the people turning up at the rallies like the show, but the people like the show too and they like the sense of the chaos and the fact that the president is doing something different. that's why they elected him. they elected him as he said early on, not to be nice and to make people like him, but to throw things up in the air. but throwing everything up in the air it has a level of exhaustion around it on top of the character of the president who creates exhaustion because he likes to have drama all around him. and so by playing to the base, you potentially alienate other people. if they are right that there are enough people out there that they can just about expand to make the electoral college map work for them, then the base play may have been the right

strategy for them. actually looking at donald trump i'm not sure there was another play. i'm not sure he was ever a president who could reach to the middle in a more sober, careful, moderated way because there's not who he is. so it would have lasted a week or two, but it was never going to last very long. so there's why they're -- they're hoping the numbers are right. that there's enough non-white college educated voters who are out there this time. >> some new battle ground state polling in new hampshire the latest boston globe suffolk university poll shows joe biden holding a ten-point lead in the state. in georgia that poll i mentioned the latest quinnipiac university poll shows joe biden ahead by seven points, 51-44. in north carolina, the latest "new york times" sienna college poll has them in a statistical tie with joe biden at 46% and donald trump at 42%. in the state of ohio the quinnipiac poll shows another

statistical tie with joe biden at 48% and trump at 47%. the newest nbc news/"wall street journal" gives joe biden an 11 point lead, 53-42%. and vice president biden leads by 87% among the black voters. 62% among the latino voters. and by 19 points among white college educated voters. and by ten points among senior citizens. the president he leads here. 21 points among white voters without a college degree. by five among men and by four among white voters. joe, as we talk about all of these in total, as you were discussing that the trump campaign wants to get out the voters, get out that base, white noncollege, even if they do that, look what it's come at the expense of it. the senior votes again in this nbc poll he's down by ten points. he is trailing heavily in places where he won last time.

it will be very difficult for him to win down ten points among seniors and getting clobbered among women particularly among suburban women. >> see, that's the thing, you're right. there's a tradeoff. we have talked about it for a couple of years. for every noncollege educated white voter that he gets, he's turning off the suburban voter. in the suburbs of atlanta, for every noncollege educated white voter he gets by saying something that others would consider outrageous, if you're just generalizing these poll numbers he loses the senior citizen. and that, willie, is the problem. you take a state like georgia i don't think it's seven points but i haven't seen a poll with donald trump ahead in georgia for a couple of months.

biden has been up one or two. that state is deadlocked and the reason why is democrats used to win in atlanta, republicans would always win in the suburbs of atlanta. and then we would win obviously out in the rural parts. that's not the case anymore. now it's atlanta versus the rest of the state. because the atlanta suburbs are breaking democratic because of donald trump. other areas are breaking that way as well. i want to say this too. when i talked, willie, about that conversation i had with a trump strategist couple years ago he said he would bet me any amount of money that donald trump would be sitting at 15, 20% among black voters i said i'll take that vote. now he's at 4%. hispanics we heard how he'd

overperform with hispanics. he's got to do a lot better than that to win. i think george w. bush was back at 44, 42%. so these aren't the numbers of a winning candidate. mika, in north carolina -- tell you what north carolina reminds me of. i remember back in 2012 cheering for mitt romney and looking at ohio and one poll after another had obama up two, obama up three, obama up three. it was stubborn for months. obama held a two, three, four point lead and it was so frustrating. that's what trump people have to be thinking. when they see those numbers north carolina numbers, biden has held a stubborn two, three, four point lead throughout the campaign. >> it's difficult, and, you know, it's a rocky road for biden as he's dealing with not just trump and all the energy that he sucks out of a room.

but the disinformation campaign out there or the facebook fox effect. there's disinformation online. there's actual lies online about the coronavirus. about a pandemic. and you could watch a certain cable network that i just mentioned for an hour and 45 minutes and not hear stories like this. instead maybe get to the segment about a vaccine that is coming, but here's the news on the virus in this country. coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are surging at an alarming rate in parts of the country and as we head into colder months the nation's top public health expert, dr. anthony fauci, is warning that americans should double down on efforts to contain the virus. >> because what we're seeing unfortunately is upticks in case positivities, test positivities. that's going to translate as it

already is into additional hospitalizations which ultimately are going to translate into additional deaths. now we're starting to see as you said correctly an uptick in cases. you know, in 37 states. i mean, that is a substantial proportion of the united states of america. that is not a good sign as you're entering into the cooler weather, so what we really have to do is double down on the things that i talk about every single day. the five issues. universal wearing of masks. keeping your distance, avoiding crowds in congregant settings at. trying to do things outdoors over indoors and washing your hands frequently. they sound very simple. but people are not doing that. and that's the reason why we're seeing the uptick in cases. >> on average, over 50,000 new covid-19 cases are being reported in the u.s. every day. a mark the nation has not seen

since mid august. most of the current outbreaks are in the midwest and the northern plains. like iowa. which is seeing an uptick in cases and hospitalizations and reported a new high for the second straight day. the latest report confirms nearly 1,200 new cases. yesterday, 11 people with covid-19 were confirmed dead. bringing the death toll above 1,500. white house coronavirus experts have urged iowa -- i'm sorry, who has? >> the white house. >> the white house. what have they done? >> they're saying limit your social gatherings to 25 people. >> the white house -- let me write this down because i have friends at java joe's. hold on, we need to call our friends at java joe's, and spread the words so donald trump's white house is telling

you, please, for your own safety, for the safety of your loved ones, for the safety of senior citizens. for the safety of your children who have underlying conditions, please, whatever you do, limit the crowd size of anything you do to 25 in iowa. okay? to just -- to just 25. i don't know where that is, mika, but where were those people, thank god they're not in iowa. >> that is iowa. >> wait, hold on. hold on. but the -- i'm not good in math, but that's a lot more than 25 people. so you're saying that donald trump's white house warned people because there's an outbreak in iowa. >> people are dying. >> people are dying and to limit the number of people that get together to 25. right? >> yeah. do you think that -- i just want -- i want to focus on the

information that these people are getting and i really want them to get the facts and not -- >> we're giving it to them right now. we're giving it to them right now. >> thousands of people though packed shoulder to shoulder at an airport in des moines. >> most of you don't know this, but i had it too. i didn't love it. but you know -- you know, it's a little tough. you have a temperature you don't feel good. the scarier part where's it going. it's at 101, 102. you haven't had a temperature in years and you see what happens to people. >> i still think it's fascinating that the people behind him have to wear a mask. but the people out in the audience don't wear a mask. we'll go to the doctor in a second, but jonathan lemire, i guess this is a rhetorical question. but do people in the trump

administration not realize that if there are outbreaks in wisconsin and they're having to build field hospitals and there are outbreaks in iowa so much so that the white house, donald trump's white house, is saying no more than 25 people together. does he not realize it when those images are spread around iowa and wisconsin he's scaring the hell out of senior citizens and losing votes. >> that has been the conundrum from the beginning. as much as the white house is trying to project the sense of normalcy. the sense that the nation is turning a corner on the pandemic, the president said so again last night, flying of course in the face of reality. but they want those images whether it's the packed white house south lawn or the packed rallies. including in states that are having real surges of the virus. including iowa, including wisconsin, this weekend where he's going. and yet, that's just it. as much as they're trying to project the sense of strength and normalcy and everything will

be all better soon, they're scaring people. it's the erosion in the support of seniors, and they still feel like this is a tightening race. both sides anticipate it will get tighter still between now and election day. but he has lost significantly the support of seniors a group he won by nine points or more last time around in 2016. that may be the margin in a handful of super vital states most of all florida. a state where we're going to know results pretty early on election night, if it breaks biden's way, it may prevent weeks of lawsuits and legal challenges and electoral uncertainty. and biden and his team know this. they have zeroed in on the seniors in florida that's where joe biden was earlier this week, in pen brook pines and you said you haven't been able to see your grandkids in more than a

year now because of the failed policies of the administration in dealing with the pandemic. they believe that trump is his own worst enemy there. when he's gathering huge amounts of people together, most without masks. almost laughing off the diagnosis, saying he's fine, kissing everyone in the audience to show he's fine. that's not the thing with the seniors. they're very scared and now don't feel like they can support donald trump. >> of course, mika, you look at the pictures. yeah, a lot of young people in the audience they'll be fine. but guess what? they're passive carriers. they may give it to their parents or grandparents and they end up in the emergency room. >> joining us now is dr. rob davidson who serves in small communities across west michigan and the executive director of the committee to protect medicare. doctor, thank you for being on.

i guess, first of all, can you get coronavirus at a gathering like the one we just saw? and if you could describe the struggle since you have treated some of the patients in the final weeks and days of a coronavirus patient's life. >> yeah, events like that are terrifying to me. it's a real gut punch when you're just going room to room putting on your n95 mask and your gown and then you see the president literally as a super spreader. it's -- you know, watching people with coronavirus, one of the worst things you can hear when you go into the room is i can't breathe or watching somebody struggle to breathe. it sets off alarm bells as a physician and you see the folks looking at you, you know, almost with tearing comes down their face, wondering am i going to have to be intubated, am i going to be one of the people who die? or am i going to pull through this. when i see this in the emergency

department, i can't tell them the answer to that. i can only do everything possible and support them and hope that they come through. >> dr. davidson, we are seeing case spikes in 37 states. wisconsin setting up field hospitals. the president will be in on saturday and he'll be in your state of michigan where you work and practice. what is your recommendation to people thinking about going to a big rally in the state of michigan like the ones we have seen over the last few days? >> yeah, the rally he's having in michigan is about 30 miles from my hospital, about 15 miles from my home and i'm terrified. my rural county voted for trump in 2016, about two-thirds and i have been serving this place for nearly 20 years. i love these people, and i care about them and i know they will be showing up two to three weeks down the road. we'll see the cases going up specifically because of the event on saturday.

>> katty kay? >> doctor, we have seen in europe a whole new wave of lockdowns. president macron of france announced nine cities in france are going to have a curfew from 9:00 p.m. to 6:00 a.m. including the paris. happening in netherlands and in germany and in the uk as well. they are just two or three weeks away from some areas of where the united states is? >> it's inevitable, but they have responsible leaders so they'll try to do something about this. here in michigan we have a senate majority leader who is embracing herd immunity like the white house. we have a supreme court who took away emergency powers from our governor. and is encouraging her to liberate us as donald trump did when we hit our peak in april and we're nearing that peak. yeah, i'm terrified because we don't have the ability to respond in this country because of political leaders. >> dr. rob davidson, thank you very, very much for being on the show this morning.

still ahead on "morning joe," an unmasking probe -- >> on unmasking, hold it. remember like conservative -- that sounds like rush limbaugh. that's really bad. >> nope. >> no, no, this is going to be the one. susan rice's email, willie, there seldom is a smoking gun. you know i'm a lawyer. where there's seldom a document where there's a smoking gun that was as damning as susan rice saying the president says let's play this one by the book. i would have opened 12 investigates not just one. that's benghazi square. can you believe she dared to say, let's play this one by the book. that's bad, isn't it, willie? i can't wait to hear who's going to jail for this. >> well, i don't want to give up to much of julie ainsley's reporting on this, but it

appears that the alleged scandal being trumpeted for the last couple of years was an absolutely nothing burger. she'll join us with her reporting. and dick durbin of illinois. >> wait, wait, willie. how could they just brush it aside when -- when anti-anti-trumpers have been saying for six months they had the document. >> something to talk about. >> did you not read the susan rice document that said let's play this by the book? wait, how could they sweep that aside, willie, i don't understand. >> it was an investigation initiated by attorney general william barr so it was not exactly a partisan effort by democrats on the outcome. >> a distraction? >> a distraction. distraction

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nbc news is reporting that the federal prosecutor appointed by attorney general bill barr to probe the unmasking of michael flynn has not found any wrongdoing according to a source with direct knowledge of the probe. one of the key figures in the investigation former cia director john brennan told nbc news he was never interviewed in the quote politically motivated probe. u.s. attorney bash was tapped by barr to look at those who requested the name of an individual redacted in classified documents and that ended up revealing the identity of former trump campaign adviser michael flynn who later pled guilty that he lied to the fbi agents about his discussions with the russians.

he later withdrew the guilty plea and president trump declined to say whether he would keep barr should he win a second term. >> bill barr, will he be around in a second term? >> i have no comment. can't comment on that. it's too early. >> too early. >> i'm not happy with all of the evidence that i had. i'm not happy. >> you know, so -- so this is really -- he is an autocrat. it's a strong man's approach to law that you only care about outcomes. we're sitting right now and we have all week been watching a nominee to the supreme court testify for several days and before she even got up there, donald trump said and ted cruz said we need to add another

person to the court so when donald trump's challenges are heard after the election, we will have another justice on our side. we'll have nine people on the court. so again, that's outcome-based law. that's of course what hungary does. that's what putin does in russia. that's what xi does in china and of course what the saudis do. that's what a lot of countries do across the planet. not us. it's never been our tradition until donald trump and mika, there you have donald trump now being upset at his own henchman who has breached political norms and shamed himself and his family, shamed everybody that has ever known him and spoken out for him. bill barr, shamed him and now because he won't give donald

trump the results that he wants, now he's not going to be welcomed back in a second trump administration. it tells you again what you have always known about donald trump. >> all right. let's bring in nbc news correspondent julie ainsley, who has been following this. what's standing out to you now about what appears to be a complete waste of time and also a distraction. >> well, i mean, joe's absolutely right. for the president, this was something as well as the john durham investigation that he had put a lot of stock in, waiting for the election -- hoping that he would get results that looked politically damning to the obama administration before his election. and now with this news that john bash, the u.s. attorney who just left the western district of texas, he was in charge of this unmasking investigation and the news there won't be any criminal charges, there will not be a

report and we know that the john durham investigation is not likely to come one a report or release the findings in any way before the election it looks like the efforts to try to get something out before the election have fallen flat. what's more, i think the most interesting thing ken dilanian and i found what we did our investigation on what happened in this investigation is the fact it never got to the level of interviewing people like john brennan who were key players. these are the names of the people who were on this list who in 2017 and 2018 asked for the unmasking of an individual whose name had been left out of intelligence reports, who turned out to be michael flynn. the incoming national security adviser. these are people like james clapper, like susan rice, jim comey. these are all of the people whose names we hear a lot from the president who he expected might be named, might be implicated in this unmasking investigation. and instead, we find out they

didn't even interview some of the key players. if you talked to people who do the investigations about why they wouldn't interview them, we shouldn't assume it's because they didn't feel like it, they didn't have the time. it's because they had done enough investigations, enough document collecting, enough work around it that they found they really didn't need to interview these people because they already knew everything they had. a big piece of that it wasn't clear what the crime was that they were looking for in the first place. there was nothing inappropriate about asking for unmasking. it happens all the time and they're within the authority to do it. >> julia, obviously attorney general barr initiated this investigation to please trump and now he's displeased president trump as we just heard in that sound bite. he wouldn't commit to bringing him back now for a second term because of what they found here. what they didn't find. so will attorney general barr accept this report or does he want to dig further into this to please the president? >> you know, it doesn't seem that it's up to him right now.

i mean, he already took this extra step of taking this piece, this unmasking question away from john durham and giving it its own investigation. and in a sense, just the public comments from his spokesperson, from bill barr himself when he testified before congress in july, the public comments that this unmasking investigation was happening anyway was already playing a political favor for the president. probably knowing full well it wasn't really clear what the criminal wrongdoing would have been for john bash to find. so it seems that bill barr already went a step beyond what most attorneys general would do to start this unmasking investigation and then talk about it publicly. but you're right, i mean, the president won't be pleased that there wasn't anything to find there. but i think for most people who understand the justice department or the law it's not surprising. >> nbc's julia ainsley, thank you very much for coming on this morning. we're learning more about the trump administration's

efforts to publicly downplay the coronavirus while privately warning wall street elite about the impending impact. on february 24th, trump tweeted about the worsening epidemic claiming that the pandemic was very much under control. his words. while touting the strength of the stock market. meanwhile on that very day, senior members of the president's economic team were less confident speaking to board members of the conservative hoover institution. according to "the new york times" a senior economic adviser said that the president told the group that he could not yet estimate the effects of the virus on the american economy. meanwhile, national economic council director larry kudlow echoed a similar sentiment. according to the document describing the meetings kudlow asserted that the virus was quote, contained in the u.s. to

date but now we just don't know. the document which was written by a hedge fund consultant at the event was widely disbursed through wall street as markets began to tank. nbc news has not obtained or read the document. one said short everything, because the stock prices would soon fall and they did. joining us now is steve rattner and business columnist at "new york" magazine, josh barro. he has a new piece out titled wall street got what it wanted from trump and is ready for biden. >> well, josh, wall street especially got what they wanted from trump if you look at donald trump and larry kudlow saying one thing to the american public which is the virus is completely contained. but sending signals to their most loyal investors, hey, we're

heading into some really rough waters here, time to dump the stock. >> well, i would note this is a few days after the market had really started to go through the -- that the coronavirus related turmoil in february. so i think -- the more i read this story, i think it was that the private comments were more -- [ indiscernible ]. but you would have needed a heads up a week or two earlier than this, for it to be useful in terms of information. where wall street got what it wanted from the president is particularly with the corps income tax cut, much of which will likely survive even if democrats take control of the government again. that was -- that's an enormous wind fall to owners of stock. they get more of the profits from companies than they would have, if they hadn't reduced the tax income. you had the big corporate tax income cuts all over europe cutting income taxes.

we had a higher rate and now they have that deliverable. they look at joe biden, i think they're worried about the chaos that -- [ indiscernible ]. so they can have that ability while still having at least some degree of favorable tax policies. >> yeah. so steve rattner, can you think of instances where the white house has said one thing publicly, said another thing privately, telling investors was going to be able -- or telling the public everything was going to be okay and then telling private investors they have no idea if they contain something like this, a crisis that would have such an impact on the markets? >> i can tell you when i worked in the obama white house to the best of my knowledge, we never did anything like this. we were very careful that anything that we said publicly

conformed to what we thought privately and vice versa. certainly no special treatment for special interest groups so no. i can't think of another instance quite like this in my memory anyway. i think it's very emblematic of the trump administration which does live in the swamp and swamp creatures get favored access and treatment and what is inside information in order to help them make money in the private markets. >> reading through your piece, i'm reminded of something -- who despite everything they have seen from president trump over the last 3 1/2 years say but my taxes, but my money. as you point out in the piece, they're sort of buying into the caricature of joe biden put up by the trump campaign which is that he is bernie sanders, that he is is aoc or whoever else they want to associate him with but he's not that proposing that much of a change in the corporate tax cut. is that right? >> well, it's a material change.

i think the big key difference between bernie sanders and joe biden is the way that trump has been portraying them is that joe biden is not opposed to the middle class tax increase. he would keep the parts of the tax cut that applies to households less than $400,000 a year. there would in joe biden's plan be a significant tax increase on high income corporations. it's from 35% -- he would go back to 28% and increase the tax that you pay on capital gains if you make a very high income. make more than $1 million a year. so for some of these wall street investors especially the ones with a lot of money they'll face a higher tax burden under joe biden which i think is a reason it's so interesting that the market is unperturbed by the idea that biden will win. i think it seems to prefer a biden win and there are ways

that he'll manage the economy better, by ensuring we have adequate economic stimulus to deal with the coronavirus crisis and dealing with the coronavirus crisis itself so the economy can get back to normal more quickly. the market is focused on that than the likelihood that certain corporations would end up paying more in taxes. >> steve rattner, let's get to your charts about the potential impact of a joe biden presidency on the economy. what are you looking at? >> so, josh gave me a great lead-in because it is in fact true in the category a little bit of man bites dog and a little contrary to certainly my experience on wall street, there is a surprising amount of belief on wall street that a biden presidency would actually be better for the economy and therefore perhaps for the stock market than a trump presidency. so you can look at one report from moody's analytics that we can put up on the screen that shows what would happen under various scenarios you can see

the dark blue bar is if the democrats sweep not only the white house, but also the senate and retain the house and moody's is projecting 4.2% growth over the next four years and then biden, but we don't retain the senate, do retain the house. 3.5%. trump wins the white house but the democrats get the senate, 3.2%. and then the worst case in the minds of moody's anyway and other wall street analysts is that the republicans sweep and actually have all three houses. that produces the lowest race of gdp growth. then look at jobs and you will see much the -- you will see the much the same picture in terms of job creation under a biden administration versus under a trump administration on the next chart that's now just on the screen. you can see a democratic sweep produces vastly more jobs than the worst case of trump retaining the white house and getting control of congress.

and in fact, a biden presidency would bring the number of total jobs back above where it was before in the next couple of years. trump presidency would actually never bring -- i shouldn't say never n the course of four years would not bring the number of jobs back to where it was before. so that makes wall street excited and to what josh's point, yes, there may be higher taxes but wall street believes it will be offset by a steadier hand at the tiller, by more stimulus and by better trade with more countries. lastly, this is surprising to some people. stock market performance under the democrats has actually been better over at least the last 60 or so years than has been under the republicans. this looks at the stock price performance under every president since eisenhower and you can see that the democrats have averaged 9.9% growth per year. the republicans have averaged 6.5% per year.

and yes, while it's true that trump actually has the best stock market of any republican, his stock market performance is materially worse than stock price performance under obama and clinton. so when trump sends out tweets that saying a joe biden presidency would destroy the stock market it doesn't comport with what is happening today or over his performance. >> katie kay? >> can i drill down a little bit more on the preference of wall street between a biden and a trump presidency because until the middle of the year they were keen on having a trump presidency. are they discounting -- i think that raise in corporate taxes from 21% to 28% that could decrease corporate profits by 12%, is that something they can plow off or having the stimulus program in january or february

outweighs the long term hike in taxes for them? >> yes, that's right. they actually thinks two things can outweigh it. yes, an increase in corporate taxes from 21% to 28% and in one wall street analysis that i looked at the other day, essentially, almost completely off set it. the second thing they think they're going to get are much better trade policies. the protectionist trade wars have been costly for the economy and they're unwound or brought to a better place by joe biden. thirdly, wall street likes certainty. they like predictability. they like kind of knowing what's going to happen next. and that is of course the last way you would describe this administration. so i'm not here to tell you that every investor, every person who's got stocks on wall street is going to vote for bide foreign all of these reasons. but i would say in many years of

watching this, i am surprised at how much -- how much positive feeling there is around the possibility of a biden presidency for both the economy and for the stock market. >> all right. steve rattner and josh barro, thank you so much for being on this morning. still ahead, supreme court nominee amy coney barrett signals that obamacare might be able to survive a challenge from the trump administration. senator and judiciary committee member dick durbin joins us ahead. "morning joe" will be right back. ♪ but i like it, i love it, i want some more of it ♪ ♪ i try so hard, i can't rise above it ♪

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if you look at what's happening with these lockdowns to children, get the children back to school. like i'll give you an example.

99.9%, barron trump, you know, he had the corona 19, the china virus. it's got 21 different names i could go over it, but to me corona means italy. china is china. it came from china. so he had the china virus, right? and he had it for such a short period of time. i don't think he even knew he had it, because they're young and their immune systems are strong and they fight it off. 99.9% and barron is beautiful and he's free. >> can we are so glad that barron's doing well as we are everybody else that's been impacted by the coronavirus. of course donald trump miss the entire point, it's not about the kids getting it, it's the kids get it and bring it home, spread

it around and actually impact people who may be weak. >> so did they disclose? >> of course not. >> did they contact trace? >> no, they don't do that. but again, he's back to lying like he did before. back in the spring when he was admitting to bob woodward that it can be tough even for younger americans. and know he's back the 99.9% and forgetting about the fact that, mika, it's the asymptomatic spreading that causes the dangers. >> yeah. i'm glad barron's okay. welcome back to "morning joe." thursday, october 15th. we have jonathan lemire and we have mike barnicle, from the daily beast, sam stein and white house correspondent for pbs news house, yamiche alcindor. >> i want to circle back to the last conversation and jonathan

lemire can chime in on it. the white house has believed time and again it would be the economy, the stock market, that would be donald trump's calling card. it's fascinating with the last conversation that we had on this show and of course reports we are getting from moody's, the reports we're going from wall street that actually there is starting to be a sense that just as we talked about the stability in american culture and people being exhausted by donald trump, now wall street is starting to think, wait a second. maybe it will be better if we have somebody that doesn't blow up all of our alliances. doesn't attack all of the trading partners. doesn't rip up all of the trade deals and actually realizes that we live in a global economic order and that we're at the head of it. but if we don't stay engaged we're going to keep falling further behind. >> yeah. we know that wall street wants above all else certainty. they can deal with the facts if they know them, but if they're

changing day to day they can't cope with that. jonathan lemire, things like waking up one day if you're on wall street and seeing the president suddenly has decided to impose tariffs that reshapes the economy and reshapes them they don't want to wake up to them. it's not all of stock market, there are a lot of people there because of the corporate tax rate and that would hit some people, hit some corporations, hit some very wealthy people. steve rattner painted a picture that one might be happier with a joe biden presidency. >> steve's charts were particularly top notch today. the trump campaign they have said and suggested and they have searched for a message this year. they have had a hard time of making the positive case for four years and frankly to make a negative one against joe biden. they have had a hard time

defining him and they tried new things in recent days but senior trump advisories that the economy will try to be the closing argument. they point to the gallup poll that showed that 56% of the americans felt like they were better off today than they were four years ago. even though of course we are still in a pandemic. they think that it's the president's stewardship of the economy that we can certainly note that has -- he inherited a growing economy from president obama but they feel like the argument for the economy is the best re-election. however, that's not the case. wall street wants certainty. they want to not be waking up in the morning and finding out a tariff imposed on china or canada for that matter. i think there's also a real frustration about how the covid relief talks have gone. the market has reacted favorably there's a rumor if there's another talk of sim us will and in recent weeks they realize

that's not happening, or unlikely to happen despite what treasury secretary mnuchin says every day and there's a real since if this drags out for a while, this could be quite some time before there is any sort of further relief. whether it is because of when the democrats control all three branches of government or maybe the republicans control the senate and have to make a deal with the biden white house that it could be quite a while before this relief reaches the people who need it and in the meantime we'll see airlines and other industries have layoffs. other markers of the economy continue to slow down. that's alarming wall street and certainly may take the wind out from the president's argument that he's the one who can lead an economic bounce-back. >> let's look at some new battle ground state polling thought morning. in new hampshire, the latest "boston globe"/suffolk university poll shows biden holding a ten-point lead. 51% to 41%. in georgia, the latest

quinnipiac university poll shows biden ahead seven points. 51% to 44%. in north carolina, the latest "new york times" siena college has them in a statistical tie. in ohio the quinnipiac university poll shows another statistical tie. biden 48%, trump 47%. in arizona, the latest reuters ipsos poll shows yet another statistical tie. biden 50%. trump 46%. in florida the same poll shows a statistical tie. in florida as well, biden 49% to donald trump 47%. >> so mike barnicle, new hampshire and georgia both have biden with big leads. i suspect they're much tighter in both of those places but no doubt, joe biden looking good in new hampshire. and giving donald trump a run for his political life in georgia, because if biden

can't -- or if trump can't win in georgia he's in huge trouble elsewhere. north carolina stayed tight the entire race, but biden's always ahead by two, by three, by four. ohio tied, arizona biden plus 4. florida, plus 2. but as jonathan lemire said whether we believe the public polls or not you could certainly see what the trump campaign is seeing behind the scenes when they're campaigning in a state like iowa that they won easily four years ago. when they campaign in states like georgia, that they won easily four years ago. there is no doubt they are on the run, they are spread thin and donald trump is going to have to be campaigning around the clock which i'm sure he will, for the next 19 days because he's behind just about everywhere. >> yeah. well, joe, first of all if lemire said it we can take it to the bank because he's never been wrong about anything. >> finally.

>> listen, joe biden is going to run like an underdog, he'll run like an underdog, that's the way he has to do it. that's the way that their campaign has do it and what is happening as you just pointed out you have the president of the united states being forced to go to states that were an automatic pickup not that long ago. part of the problem i would suggest is rooted in the clip that we show at the top of this hour. the president talking about the virus and about his son barron and we're all grateful that barron and everyone else who is recovering from covid-19 has indeed recovered but there's the issue in this country today. you hear the president of the united states who is prevalent on television all day, every day for many americans, that's the only chance they get to see a president of the united states. and does he behave like a president? does he act like a president when you see the clips of him on tv? i would suggest he does not act like a president or behave like a president. that might be the root of his

problem. he is chasing 2016 and he's coming up with the reality that is existing out there in 2020. the virus is the prevalent issue all over this country. it's growing by day. right now, as we speak. both here in massachusetts and around the country. and the other ticking time bomb that jonathan lemire did just talk about is the covid-19 bills. there are maybe 22 to 26 million people unemployed in this country as we speak. families have been fractured. they live in fear and anxiety of who is coming to help. and thus far, nobody has come to help. >> biden campaign manager jen o'malley dillon tweeted, early voting is already under way in many states and many have cast their ballots but there's a long way to go in campaign and we think this race is far closer than folks on this website --

referring to twitter -- think like a lot closer. indeed, there could be cause of concern for democrats in areas like voter registration trends. thomas etzel writes in "the new york times" according to a democratic strategist who closely follows the data on a day to day basis, since last week, the share of white noncollege over 30 registrations in battle ground states has increased by 20 points and the democratic margin dropped ten points to just six points. and there are serious signs of political engagement by white noncollege voters who had not cast ballots in previous elections. yamiche alcindor, you know, there is a world on twitter that is far different than -- >> the world. >> the world, in general. loud voices, shrill voices, a lot of misinformation.

twitter is trying to catch up with it and they're failing terribly at this point on that front. so beyond twitter, what is the reality? does the biden campaign and the trump campaign see that reality? >> they are seeing that reality and that's why you hear this from biden and the biden campaign, essentially telling voters we need a blowout. we need people to go out and in large numbers back joe biden. they're doing that i think for two reasons and two reasons based on my reporting and what i have been talking about. the first is they worry about president trump trying to contest the election and trying to get a case to the supreme court, with the 6-3 majority that he'll have when likely judge barrett will be confirmed and he'll use the levers of the federal government to force

himself into the second term even if the votes may not have gone that way. and the second is there's a marketing strategy. there are voters in 2016 who of course saw the polls, saw the same kind of tight races in different states and felt like hillary clinton was going to win it and they stayed home and this year, the biden campaign is trying to tell the people, do not assume anything. assume nothing about the race. assume that every single vote counts and that you have to stand in lines for hours like we see in georgia and other places and that you have to go to the polls. that i think's the feeling among the biden campaign, that's their messaging to voters. i'm here in florida where i'm talking to voters. and you hear that same echoing. you hear people nervous and worried about the election and saying, well, i need to make sure i go and vote early. early voting here starts next week and people are very aware of those dates and very aware of that i will also say when i talk to trump campaign advisers, they sound on at least the surface,

well, these are the same kind of polls in 2016 and maybe we can pull out this sort of surprise and miracle victory that we did in 2016 in 2020 but there's a lot of angst in the background. when you dig into the fact that the president has had some struggles when it comes to his response to the coronavirus. >> sam stein, i agree with everything yamiche just said there and if you talk to democrats not just in the campaign but those who work in the politics, they have the opposite of complacency. they have panic in some cases bordering on paranoia that the polls are lying to them. it's based almost entirely on what happened in 2016. when they didn't believe that donald trump could be elected president of the united states, they thought they had a good candidate in hillary clinton and they the electoral college. so the long lines, all the mail-in voting we have seen points to just that. which is that democrats are well aware that they have to keep

their foot on the gas. >> yeah. there's a lot of ptsd from 2016 for sure. people clicking on the polling averages, comparing them now and four years ago wondering how it all fell apart for hillary. that works to biden's advantage. you get people super engaged out of abject fear and they vote early and so on. the early votes and the incredible lines we see, is that a sign of enhanced enthusiasm or is that more a sign of biden's vote being cannibalized? by that, people who are already going to be voting and then trump will catch up an election day? that's sort of to be determined. there's two things i note. one is that biden's lead against trump vis-a-vis hillary's is a lot more stable than it was four years ago. this race as crazy and dramatic as this entire year has been, we have lived through a pandemic, economic collapse. the amazing thing about this

race is how stable it's been the entire time. so he has that going for him. the second thing is that there's not that big of a universe of undecided voters, at least according to the polls. if you remember four years ago, there was a huge universe of undecided voters and they largely broke for trump in the closing weeks. that doesn't mean that biden is out of the woods, i think tom etzel's column is right. trump has made the overplays to the base a centerpiece of the campaign. people wondered why would he do that, why not try to win over the independent voters and the trump people have said, look, there's a ton of working class white voters who don't vote ever and if we can engage them we can juice up the turnout oeven more than in 2016. they are right in one respect.

there are a huge number of voters in that demographic who don't vote. now, can they get them out, that's really going to determine their success. >> meanwhile, coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are surging at an alarming rate in parts of the country. as we head into colder months, dr. anthony fauci is warning that americans should double down on efforts to contain the virus. >> what we're seeing unfortunately is upticks in case positivities, test positivities. that's going to translate as it already is into additional hospitalizations which ultimately are going to translate into additional deaths and now we're starting to see as you said correctly an uptick in cases. you know, in 37 states, i mean, that is a substantial proportion of the united states of america. that is not a good sign as

you're entering into the cooler weather so what we have to do is double down on the things that i talk about every single day. the five issues. universal wearing of masks, keeping your distance, avoiding crowds in congregant settings. trying to do things outdoors preferentially over indoors and washing your hands. they sound very simple but people are not doing that and that's the reason why we're seeing the uptick in cases. >> on average, over 50,000 new covid-19 cases are being reported in the u.s. every day. a mark the nations has not seen since mid august. most of the current outbreaks are in the midwest and northern plains like in wisconsin. where a new field house opened yesterday as the rate of infections continued to soar across the state. the medical station located in

the state fair park comes as more than 1,000 people have been hospitalized from the virus overwhelming hospitals. the seven-day average of positive cases is currently the highest it's ever been. 246 of those hospitalized remain in the intensive care. they'll serve patients with covid who suffer from minor symptoms. also in iowa which is seeing an uptick in hospitalizations as well. a reported new high for the next straight day, the latest report confirms nearly 1,200 new cases. yesterday, 11 people with covid-19 were confirmed dead in that state bringing the death toll to above 1,500. white house coronavirus experts have urged iowa social gatherings to be limited to 25 people so people don't get the

virus and die. >> so again, in the state of iowa, donald trump's white house urged iowans to limit all gatherings to 25 or less so they could protect themselves, protect their loved ones. especially protect senior citizens because with of course we have seen it at colleges. we have seen it at other places where young people go. they go out, they're surrounded by others. they bring the virus back home. they're asymptomatic carriers and they send a parent or a grandparent, they send a senior citizen to the hospital. so you had donald trump, jonathan lemire, while we're showing these images, donald trump giving the advice from his white house for all iowans to limit gatherings to 25 people or less because iowa's moving towards a hot spot, being a hot

spot. look at that crowd last night in the state of iowa. it is shockingly irresponsible, of course. donald trump proves again with this image he does not care if people live or die. he only cares about his own political fortunes that's all he cares about and even the biggest trump supporter knows that to be the case. yet, donald trump brought thousands of people together, packed them together. most not wearing masks. at the same time, his own white house is begging people -- they're begging people in iowa not to have more than 25 people together. i'll open it up to anybody else after you, jonathan, does donald trump and his campaign team not realize what this does, not only to senior citizens in iowa, but also in florida and arizona and

north carolina and pennsylvania and michigan and in wisconsin. it scares the hell out of them and shows that even after getting it himself, donald trump is not serious about this plague on seniors. >> yeah, joe, let's start there, how his messaging after his own diagnosis, after his own illness has not changed whatsoever. he still downplays the virus. he talks up the treatment he received, mind you, treatment that most americans can't get. this is experimental stuff that he received at walter reed medical center. he said i felt lousy for a couple of days and i'm fine, i'm back out there. he did a poll the other night and asked how many other people in the crowd may have had the virus and he said, we're all still here that's the messaging they're trying to suggest, we get the virus and we move on. this flies in the face of of course the white house guidelines for iowa but also

where most of the nation is right now on the pandemic. that's why seniors are so spooked. he has seen a real hemorrhage in support from seniors, starting back from spring. when you had have the scatter shot task force briefings where he suggested injecting disinfectant for a treatment and that's when they first saw a drop in support among seniors and he's trying to project the idea of normalcy, the nation is turning the corner around the pandemic and thousands and thousands of people are being infected every day. it's not working and people see the images, they're frightened by them. it's not what they want to see. that's not where the nation is right now on the pandemic. and that's the calculation that his team has made. and it's certainly -- you know, it may bolster the enthusiasm of the people we see thronging in the rallies night after night. but it will hurt him elsewhere.

that's going to be support among seniors, among suburbanites and women he may have a difficult time to win back in the final three weeks. it's recklessness, his aides acknowledged this, they have seen the polling data after his own diagnosis, there was sentiments of support and everyone wished he would recover, other times that other american presidents have had crises, the nation have rallied around him. when president trump was diagnosed with covid-19, there wasn't that. they felt like he brought it on himself and ignoring the guidelines of his own government. >> he said there's a cure for coronavirus. there's not a cure for coronavirus. he said he was cured and he's going to make sure he gets that same cure out to anyone else who gets it. it's a lie, it's not true. there's not even a vaccine. we know there won't be a vaccine by election day as he promised. it's a time to listen to the doctors as it has been from the

beginning, mike barnicle and the doctors are telling us as we heard from dr. fauci, an event like these that the president is holding every night, a couple of them in some cases, they shouldn't be happening. dr. fauci said we need to double down as we enter the colder months. we had a doctor on here from michigan who said because of the event that the president will hold this saturday, he's terrified but he's now preparing to see a lot of people he knows, a lot of his neighbors, because he lives in rural western michigan where the event will be held to see them in his hospital being treated for covid because of these events. >> willie, the reality is donald trump can only see himself. he does not see the people in the audience. he does not understand their plight. he does not understand the reality they could obviously get the virus and be in tremendous

physical difficulty. what donald trump knows is that when the virus seized him in the white house, that he was put on marine one to take a short helicopter delight to walter reed hospital where he received the finest treatment in the world. experimental drugs and he came out of the hospital feeling like he was 20 years younger he told the crowd. one important difference between what happened with donald trump and what happens with everyone else in america. and it was outlined in a front page story in the new york times about a woman with the virus, near death. she was flown again by helicopter, not marine one, 20 minute flight to another hospital where she could be better cared for and she was better cared for there. and after a month or so, she was released from the hospital. and then she got a $52,000 hospital bill for the med flight. so that's one of the big

differences among many between what happened with donald trump and what happens to everyone out there today who is either had the virus or fearful of getting the virus. there's a huge difference between the two and donald trump just doesn't get that difference. >> now in the words of monty python for something completely different, sam stein, baseball last night had a couple of interesting games. the houston astros obviously back on their heels, losing the first two games as america and the world rejoiced to tampa. >> that's correct. >> and then of course, the l.a. dodgers who were down 2-0 against the atlanta braves. dodgers came back strong. what do you think? >> well, this is such a weird season, right? i think houston could be the most reviled team in professional sports ever having come off their cheating scandal.

yet, here they are and no one outside of houston is rooting for them. let's just say that america is with tampa and the dodgers are a curious case. it's a talented roster, they should be theoretically doing better here but the pitching is falling apart. a big comeback i think is 15-3 yesterday. so i think mlb would like for ratings purposes l.a./houston world series, but it looks like you'll get atlanta. it will be an interesting world series, two very young teams. but, you know, really good baseball teams. >> so just a small point, not to be debby downer, but the video you just showed. baseball players playing baseball. absolutely no one in the audience. >> well, there were some. >> i think one person for every 20 seats. >> well, they're starting to scatter the fans which i think is good.

they can do that safely. >> compare to to the iowa rally. >> and the greatest example is what the nba did. put everybody in a bubble, controlled it. and it made a difference. >> what do you mean by a bubble? >> well, these players are in a bubble. if you go -- well, you're not -- >> you can't go out. >> only people you're around are the other people who are playing with you. >> why are they doing that? not to get the virus and not to pass it around? >> am i, perry mason? these are the most obvious questions. why don't you ask me if i like sweet tea and brownies? yes, yes, i admit it. so willie, we'll get to nick saban getting covid in one second, but let's finish up on baseball if we will. so the dodgers of course have every reason to be bitter about the past couple of years with facing houston and then facing

the red sox and two world series and the yankees actually do as well for how the astros got to the world series. that said, even cheating aside over the past couple of years, the dodgers last night as the exception, the dodgers pitching a lot of times sort of disappears in the fall. they collapse. >> well, clayton kershaw was hurt and had to miss the start but i'm not writing off the dodgers. only down 2-1. >> i love the dodgers. >> i still think they'll win the series, but we're concerned that the rays have given the astros a lot of hope. you need to put down the houston astros tonight. america's most reviled team, they must be dispatched. they must be dispensed with. they must be ushered off the

stage. tampa bay rays, we're counting on you tonight. meanwhile, you mentioned the legendary nick saban has tested positive for coronavirus. saudi arabi saban and the university campus president also tested. contact tracing is now under way. the coach said while he's not experiencing any covid symptoms, steve sarkisian will oversee the preparations while saban works from home. they're playing the third ranked university of georgia on saturday. also in the s.e.c., you have the florida/lsu game postponed because of an outbreak at the university of florida. this is starting to crop up a little bit in college football. we have to keep an eye on it. >> yeah. it did in the beginning at the major league baseball season as well, we're seeing it here now.

maybe they'll able to ride through it. a lot of the people were saying they might not make it through the entire season. but sam stein obviously, when you have that many people together, you've got to contact trace. you have to be responsible even though the white house isn't. alabama and florida and other colleges are being far more responsible than even the white house. but nick saban in a public service announcement about wearing a mask he's taken as many precautions as you can take from everything i have heard. and it just happens. as donald trump admitted to bob woodward back in february, it's an extraordinarily contagious disease. >> yeah, i mean, look, the nba is the template here. what they did is they created what is in essence a cocoon. they had not just limited

interactions inside and out, but they did rapid testing, repeated testing and they basically just ensured that when you were inside that cocoon the virus wouldn't enter. now, it's a great template to adapt nationally but it's hard, because there are so many people. and i think football is showing the limitations of it which is bigger teams which means bigger universities and university coaches and personnel that are required to go with the team. you have to keep the travel to the stadiums, you can't put it in a bubble like in orlando. you will see the disease pop up and that's when you need to contact trace and try to put down the virus immediately before it spreads. joe, you're right. we thought mlb would be done early on but they got it under wraps. this is not only a college football thing, but professional football. cam newton had it and their game had to be pushed off. it's a lot more difficult now.

>> coach saban has no symptoms and he's literally coaching practice from a zoom call. >> what a surprise. recent polling shows 6% of americans who voted for president trump in 2016 have had a change of heart in 2020. we hear the story of one of the voters. but even if trump loses, trumpism will go on. we'll talk about that next. "morning joe" will be right back. ut that next "morning joe" will be rit gh back and now your co-pilot. still a father. but now a friend. still an electric car. just more electrifying. still a night out. but everything fits in. still hard work. just a little easier. still a legend. just more legendary.

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joining us from the financial times ed luce. he has a new piece entieldled even if trump loses, trumpism

will live on. also with us, the author of "winners take all" publisher of the dot ink newsletter anand giridharadas. his latest piece is entitled, "donald trump, the story of a voter who changed his mind." this is a great parallel of different stories. i think i'll start with you, anand, and tell us about the voter. >> i put out a feeler, there was a polling that you just cited before the break, 86% of trump's 2016 voters with still with him, but 6% are not. i think in the discourse it's easy to forget that 6% and i put out a feeler on twitter to share stories with me. i got the story of a man named don, 87-year-old man in southern california. kind of a moderate, republican, country club republican, coming of age in the '50s and '60s and

he talked about the hippies to his kids, if you don't like america, leave it. maybe a sane republican, fighter pilot in the air force. then commercial pilot for american airlines. 20 years ago, don gets parkinson's and his daughter tells me this story of as she saw it, he started to -- one of the symptoms he became gullible to conspiracy theories and this was a moment when disinformation was ramping up. fox news was ramping up. email forwards about birtherism are ramping up and he became a victim of an american age of disinformation and starts to really think president obama is born somewhere else, starts to become sympathetic to trump who is against everything he believes, votes for trump and then a strange thing happens. because of the progression of

parkinson's, he loses the ability to type his passwords into the computer and he gets locked out and he stops being able to read the email forwards and turns away from fox news and as soon as he's unplugged from the iv of untruth in trump's first year in office, he falls out of belief. the high goes away when you take the drugs away. so much of trumpism is upheld by literally living in fantasy. and so his family watches and they worked on him. 2018 he starts to come around. 2020 rolls around and don says for the first time in his life, 87-year-old guy, i'm going to vote for a democrat. i'm going to be to vote for joe biden. he's a stand-up guy and the twist in this story, as he starts to asking in september, i need my mail-in ballot and the reason he's so impatient is don at the same time even as he was awaiting his mail-in ballot had decided under california's end of life option act because of his terminal disease he had

decided to end his own life in late september. he was hoping -- hoping against hope that his ballot would arrive before his scheduled date of leaving this earth, flying west as they say in the air force. and waiting and waiting. and he wanted as his last thing on earth for it to be known that he made a mistake in 2016, that it's okay to change your mind in a democracy. in fact, that's the only thing that ever saved a democracy and his daughter shared his story with me in the hope that others who have outlived don will be able to help honor his last wish. >> fascinating, fascinating story. it reminds me, willie, though f of, you know, when anand was talking about emails that were getting passed around, we sit and think that disinformation started with facebook and started with other networks.

i remember when i was in congress, my mom would -- there was an email that used to go around when email was the best way to spread conspiracy theories i'd get it every morning. did you know 372 members of congress have declared bankruptcy. 262 were child molesters. 148 have killed -- i was like, mom, mom, i'm in congress. stop sending this garbage to me. but, you know, back in 1964-65, i think there was a book about lyndon johnson called -- calling it treason. there were rumors about lbj killing all of the people. killing kennedy, of course. we had the rumors of george h.w. bush shipping cocaine into south central l.a. when he was running the cia.

we have stories of bill clinton being spread by jerry falwell and the clinton chronicles of murdering people. of course, george w. bush is a nazi. the birtherism. this had been going on for quite some time, willie. it's just easier to spread the lies, easier to spread the virus these days because of facebook. >> yeah. i remember those emails you're talk about. often one line would be in red font, the next in blue. the difference i think as anand has talked about quite a bit there's a president who's lifted so much out of the shadow and given it legitimacy and told people who believe those things like the "q" conspiracies that they're valid. that this is real. they should be pursued. he's amplified them with his own voice. he's amplified them online and as you said, facebook has a huge

role and part of the reason, ed luce, you're writing about trumpism. if trumpism loses this election and leaves in four years that trumpism will in fact live on because of the stamp he's put on so much of this over the last five years. >> i think he will probably lose on november 3rd or whenever the votes are counted. but this isn't going to be a walter mondale 1984 kind of the defeat or a barry goldwater kind of defeat. it's between 60 and 65 million americans and 42, 45% of the country voting for him after all that's happened. i think it's pretty clear that the republican party, it was a great axios study on this, in fact, earlier this week. the republican party is more trumpian today than it was four years ago.

even than two years ago. it's not got too many joe scarborough republicans left in it or jeff flake republicans. it's as much a qanon party more than what remains of the rockefeller wing. americans who get fake news or news that's dressed up to look like legitimate news but it's fake has more than tripled on facebook and other social media sites between now and 2016. so the point i'm trying to make i guess is that even if biden wins, which i think he will, this isn't like, you know, a vaccine for the pandemic. it's not the end of trumpism. it will remain a force and it's something that biden has to deal with, particularly with his first priority which is getting

a national coronavirus strategy rolled out. >> yeah, mike, mike barnicle is with us, he's got a question. mike? >> anand, the fox news industry, the pipeline, i have been amazed continually and increasingly at the impact it can have on people and holding them to the beliefs that they hear and see on fox. thinking that everything is the news. does it strike you as anything reasonable could happen here if trump loses, that this sort of disintegrates or do you think it continues its power, its hold on people? >> i think you're absolutely right about the power and it really is to bridge two different things that were said in the last few minutes it's fox news multiplied by facebook.

one of them is in your pocket, and is particularly working with the addictive dynamics of your phone that are now better known. the other is this television portal into your brain, a different route. and let me make a hopeful version of the point which is i actually don't think this era would have been possible without a substantial number of trump voters essentially not living in reality. i don't think that -- i would argue that 80% of trump voters probably do not know or think to be true most of the most salient facts that would make one not vote for donald trump. right? i don't actually think a lot of the voters know those things, face those things, believe those things and then still form a view of trump as positive. i have spoken to many of the people, they live in a castle of fantasy. they don't know reality. and what that tells me is, we

don't have a problem. we have a problem of there being some number of the people in the country who actually want the worst things for us. but there's a much larger number of people who are living in a media ecosystem and i should say i think it's fox news primarily to be sure, but i think we're all in this. we're all in this, those of us who do both sides, headlines, we're all guilty of it. i think we need to obviously even in this network there's been disagreement. i would dissent from the town hall tonight, but i don't dissent from interrogating him. i don't think you have to give him dessert because he skipped dinner but i think we should interrogate the day lights out of him. but we need a media culture that holds these people to the fire. and helps the kind of tens of millions of americans who have essentially been living in a castle of fantasy, who frankly come in from the cold.

>> you know, ed luce, after 2016, there was a lot of hand wringing by reporters, a lot of hand wringing by people on tv saying we need to go out to the country. we need to get out of our bubbles. we need to understand what's re world, and what i've seen over the past several years talking to my friends is, i'm sorry, it's just the opposite. like they are not -- and i'm talking about my friends. i'm talking about people i love. i'm talking about people who have helped me with my children, that have helped me in my life when i'm at my lowest point, people that i love, they are not low information voters. they are people who as anand said have plugged into an ultimate reality. >> wrong information. >> people who watch information and get a steady diet of information that is objectively

false. that's the only way you can say it. they choose to go to sites on facebook that spread conspiracy theories. the questions they ask me are extraordinary. when you talk about children in cages, they say, but yeah, that was nancy pelosi who did that. i said have you not read that people were sitting around a table and they actually raised their hands and voted to cage children as a policy? no, that's not true. that's just the liberal press. and i can say the same thing about coronavirus. again, friends that i have known and loved for decades will be on the phone with me and they will say, oh, covid is no worse than the flu. it's just like the flu , despit the fact that donald trump admitted to woodward privately it's five times worse than the

flu at least. every doctor they would dgo to would say that. they are not low information voters. they are alternative reality voters because they choose to go to websites that tell them lies. they choose to go to networks that tell them lies, that give them an alternative reality that they're comfortable with. >> that's absolutely right. i mean, my favorite's probably the wrong word, but one of the ones that strikes me the most and you keep coming across it is that it's dangerous to wear masks and wearing masks entraps carbons and you catch all kinds of microbes you would not otherwise catch, which is news to the medical professionals who have been waearing masks to the last century. you would have thought if there was a problem that would have ceased to be the mainstream medical practice. so yes, the only sort of caveat i put to what you say is that all of this is available through simple technology on the radio, but rush limbaugh says all this

stuff, too. you don't have to be going to websites. it doesn't have to be digital. it doesn't have to be linked from -- hyperlinked from one to another. you can just turn your radio on and listen to rush limbo provide the sort of meta narrative that is then picked up by all the online sites. and the other minor caveat that i would make is that, you know, there are pre-existing conditions alleged to trumpism that have caused people to reject politics as normal. i think the deaths of despair, the opioid crisis, the rise in suicide rates in post h-industrl areas, all of these are sort of ingredients in the creation of a despair that led toi trumpism, which of course is a cure way worse than the disease.

but there is a legitimate crisis out there of the internet in the middle class that's been made worse by trump by which biden is going to have to address. that's, i think, the ultimate cause here of america's distemper. >> and by the way, mika, when there is a "new york post" article that is false, it's much better for twitter to let people read the "new york post" article and sit there and laugh at the hokie story of a computer repairman looking at a computer going this sure does look suspicious to me. i'm going to call rudy giuliani. like let that out. okay? because people read this story, and then they'll go this is really one of the stupidest october surprises i've ever seen before. what did he have, x-ray vision? >> oh, my lord. ed luce. >> thank you, ed. we'll be reading your --

>> wonder if america's mayor could take a look at it. >> -- new piece this morning for the financial times. so with just 19 days until election day, we're taking a look at some of the candidates running in key races. joining us now, democratic candidate for congress in missouri's first u.s. district cori bush. thank you so much for being on this morning. you are quite the improbable candidate. tell us your story and why you're running. >> grew up in a household, first of all, thank you for having me back. i grew up in a household where my dad's been in politics for most of my life. because of what i saw, i said i'll never do it. after michael brown was murdered, i just said it was too much. a great man gave his soul to the community. he went through a lot. after michael brown was murdered in ferguson, you know, and i say murdered, i took to the streets as clergy, as a medic.

i'm a registered nurse just trying to help out. what i saw was something like civil rights footage, you know, from the '60s in my community, and so, you know, i had to, you know -- i just had to stay out in the street, and i had to see what justice could look like in this moment, and we didn't find justice. and one day someone asked me to run, and when someone asked me to run for office, i said no, why would i ever want to do that? but when i thought about it, how do we get the heart of the people that have been out here on the streets day after day, you know, fighting for justice for black lives, how do we get that heart into these seats, into federal seats? you have to run. and so i stepped up to run. plus, i have to look out to save the life of my son, the life of my daughter. >> yamiche. >> thanks so much for being here. i'm interested in talking to you about the enthusiasm that your campaign was able to garner. you got grass roots support.

you're someone who really felt like had the backing of her community. i'm also hearing from people here in florida that there are voters who are not as enthusiastic about joe biden. what's your message and maybe your advice to the biden campaign to get the enthusiasm that you saw in your own race? >> so a great activist locally here in st. louis by the name of kayla reed, she said something phenomenal recently. she said especially for those people vote conditions and not candidates, then. so what are your conditions and which candidate will help you get to the goal, meeting whatever your issues are. who's going to get you there quicker? is it going to be donald trump, or is it going to be joe biden. and if we're talking about helping marginalized groups, groups that are disenfranchised, people who are already hurting right now, who's going to help us to get out of the situations we're in? is it donald trump, or is it going to be joe biden. and look at the administration, we cannot just look at the president. we have to look at his administration. we have to look at the minions

that are coming up, you know, that think that this, you know -- i call donald trump the big daddy of bigotry, the current father of racism. do we want to bring more into elected office that are like him? no. >> cori, it's willie geist, you're all but assured to be elected after your upsetting in the primary two months ago of ten-term incumbent. you're all but assured to win your race and go to washington in january. i think a lot of people think we need more people like you in washington, someone who's out there and has lived this, has lived these problems. they're not theoretical to you because you've been on the ground working on them. how do you keep your voice up in a place where there are 434 other congress people and a bunch of senators. how do you make an impact when you get there? >> staying true to myself. that's how i got here. when people said, you know, i don't look the part. i don't sound the part. i don't have the right name, even though my last name is bush, that's a whole other

story. you know, i don't have the right titles. when they said i couldn't, you know, when they said my braids were unprofessional. my hips were too big, and i kept going. they said i wasn't educated enough, i kept going and now i'm here. in that same way, i'll use the same voice, the same energy i had on the streets of ferguson when people were getting their butts kicked, i kept going. when i was low waged and unhoused, when i was going through domestic violence and sexual assault, i kept going. so in the same way i kept a voice there and i moved forward, is and i will bring that same authenticity, that same fair and passion to congress, and i feel like that's the way that we bring people in. you share your story and you expose people to what they may not know. i'm exposing people to a life to lived experiences that they may not know. i'll stay true to me. i'm going in as a poe lit vis. >> cori bush, thank you for stepping up, and thanks for being on this morning. >> thank you. and still to come, we're

breaking down new national polling that shows joe biden leading among several key demographics. with less than three weeks to go until election day. the next hour of "morning joe" starts right now. should the president stop hosting these rallies? >> you know, i can't advise the president about what he can do and should do with regard to political campaigns, but i can reiterate my statement that when you have congregate settings of a lot of people together closely packed, when most are not wearing masks, that is a risk situation to be avoided. >> dr. anthony fauci continues to sound the alarm. president trump continues not to listen. good morning, and welcome to "morning joe." it is thursday, october 15th along with joy, willie and me, we have white house report ert for the associated press,

jonathan la mar jonathan lemire, katty kay, good to have you all, and i think we're grabbing kasie for a bit of the conversation as well. >> i heard what you said at the end of "way too early" about the warning from the biden camp, and it is an important warning with 19 days to go. we're going to show some polls that show joe biden far ahead. if you talk to the biden people, they do say it's much closer, and there's a great article this morning in "the times," and he brings up -- he talks about how much closer this race could be. first of all, there are a lot of white voters without college degrees who are registering who didn't vote in 2016, and also, he quotes dave wasserman's data, in florida since the state's march primary, 195,000 republicans have been added to the rolls. only 98,000 democrats.

in pennsylvania since june republicans, 35,000. republicans up 83,000, democrats only 38 thousands. etsel lays out quite a few data points that should give a lot of democrats reasons to worry with 19 days to go and to stop them from being as come plplacent asy were four years ago. >> i remember being laughed at, joe, when i said on this very program that when i was covering hillary clinton's campaign in the final weeks that it didn't feel like a winning one. i mean, her staffers laughed at me. as it turns out, that was exactly what was happening, and you know, i think it's a

combination of things, and you're right to point out these signs that are under the radar. that is what happened in 2016. there was a lot going on under the radar that people missed. there are some signs that there is more potential republican strength than perhaps is being accounted for. there is also this question about people potentially getting come plplacent this assumption everything is fine. i don't need to vote. people are living lives where everything is very much not fine. this is not a situation where it's been akt years of a democratic administration, a status quo, an economy that's growing, right? people are suffering and hurting, so i think that potentially is different. but general mally dillon who has gotten a lot of credit for making a very strong run on joe biden's behalf, people like her, people think heshe's doing a go job, that warning, i think, very important, and also really telling. i mean, the reality is we still are basically a 50/50 country. if donald trump can't get to 50%, then obviously he's going

to have a real challenge actually pulling this out, but especially considering how many completely unpredictable things have happened in the year 2020, it seems like a warning that is pretty relevant right about now just 19 days out. >> yeah, it certainly does. thank you so much for sticking around, kasie, we appreciate it. you know, willie, after the arrogance we saw from the democrats and yes, from the mainstream media four years ago, if you even suggested that donald trump might get to 270 electoral votes, complete arrogance and a complete mocking attitude, it certainly -- this serves as a reminder and sort of a bucket of cold ice water over everybody's head that's saying this race is over, that we industrial a lostill have a long way. he also quotes a democratic strategist closely following day toda to day. he wrote since last week, the

noncollege over 30 registrations in the battleground states has increased by ten points compared to september 2016, and democratic margins have dropped ten points to just six points, and there are serious signs of political engagement by white non-college voters who had not cast ballots in previous elections. all of this bad news for democrats and something that may be happening under the radar. i do -- just to be even handed here, etsel also says, for instance, that biden may be losing support among hispanic voters in a way that hillary clinton didn't, but that's more than offset by the number of white catholics that are breaking his way. and other demographic groups that are actually breaking back biden's way that weren't with him in 2016. this is not to say joe biden is going to lose, but edzel brings

up a lot of great points to suggest what joe biden's campaign manager said last night, hey, this race a lot closer than people on twitter think it is. if you talk to people privately as i have on both sides, they will tell you that this isn't a race of 7, 12, 10 points. in the swing states it's one, two, maybe four in michigan. maybe four in wisconsin, maybe four in pennsylvania, maybe two in north carolina. it is tight, and any shift, dramatic shift in the next two weeks towards donald trump makes it a tossup election. >> no question about it. and i heard exactly what you're describing yesterday from the biden campaign, specifically about a q poll out of georgia that had them up seven points. this person said there's no way on earth we are up seven points in the state of georgia. that's the difference right there, four years ago there was, in fact, some complacency.

there was this feeling that, really, donald trump, rolling their eyes, the game show host is going to become the president. you don't pick up any of that right now from the biden campaign. i think they wish at this point that some of these polls weren't public so voters didn't begin to become complacent about this. besides the campaign not being complacent is we've had now four years of donald trump as president, four years ago at this moment, there was this theoretical president of donald trump, what he could be, maybe he could be a disrupter. maybe he could be that boardroom guy who could make deals. we've seen what his presidency has wrought. look at where we are right now in terms of coronavirus, in terms of everything else that's happened over four years. voters now have a view of what donald trump as president really is. jonathan lemire, i know you've been covering some of this in the state of pennsylvania in terms of voter registration. does this "times" piece this morning follow with what you're seeing in terms of more republicans registering right now? >> these are the data points

that the trump campaign has been pointing to for a while. let's be clear, that surge, the white working class non-college educated voter who hasn't voted in the past who indicated they're going to vote now, that's who they've been after this whole time, and they have been saying, and they do have -- they have had a significant field operation. they have a far at this point greater ground game than the democrats have and it's been in place a lot longer. of course he's running for re-election. donald trump declared he was running for a second term on his inauguration day and efforts began soon thereafter. they recognize that that's what they need this time. as much as the demographic shifts of the country, they feel like there are more voters to be had, voters who didn't turn out in 2016. it's very hard and very expensive to find low propencsiy voters. in breefiefing with reporters earlier this week, they point to exactly this, the increase in gop registrations in some of the

key battlegrounds. pennsylvania chief among them, but also places like florida and north carolina, and they feel, according to people who have registered to vote for the first time tend also to vote that time around in that election having just registered a few weeks before. that is what they're pointing to as well as they always say signs of enthusiasm like the unbelievable amount of yard signs you see for trump, comparatively few for biden. certainly the rallies. that's a deliberate choice. the biden campaign is adhering to covid guidelines. they're having smaller echvents that are distanced. they're trying to send a message, that's how things should be done. the trump campaign with a massive rally in des moines, iowa, they're not doing that. they want the images of big crowds. few of them wearing masks. there's little to no social distancing. these are the markers the trump campaign is excited about. they feel like this is a close race. i've talked to strategists on both sides. most of these battleground

states don't believe it's eight, nine, or ten points. it's much more like one, two, three four. a little bit of cold water on trump enthusiasm this morning, too. they are also having to play real defense. we're 19 days out, and they're spending a lot of time in places like pennsylvania and florida. he's going to wisconsin this weekend. his staff said as of next week he's going to have two, three, rallies a day, but he's also -- he had to go to iowa last night, a state he won handily in 2016. he's got to go to georgia later this weekend. that race there is tight as well. he's having to spend money. he's having to spend his most valuable asset, his time, in places he didn't think he'd have to a few months ago. and every time he goes to georgia, that's a time he can't go to pennsylvania. still ahead, there are plenty of trump voters who don't actually like donald trump. how america's partisan divide is helping to fuel the president's re-election bid. you're watching "morning joe." we will be right back. ht back.

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. i'll tell you what, we have more enthusiasm now than we ever did four years ago. and we have great poll numbers, although, you know, you see a lot of fake poll numbers. they'll do anything they can. >> if you look at those crowds, these rallies are what he loves to do, and the other day i thought maybe there was a thousand people in one of the crowds, it was 7,000, so these rallies in the middle of a pandemic are bringing a turnout that is pretty impressive. and joe, as we've discussed before, there was one day, one day four years ago that brought it all together for trump, that it all came together for him, and even he was surprised when he won the presidency of the united states, but to willie's point where he said, you know, voters have had a view now of what his presidency is like, what his policies are like, what his decisions are like, i would

argue that trump voters actually don't have that view. they don't have a clear view. they don't have the facts. i think there are certain networks and facebook and social media empires that are helping promulgate lies that they live by, and i think that could be a dangerous brew as we, you know, talk about the potential for biden to struggle a bit or for one day to come together for him all over again. >> it could happen. >> for trump. >> it could happen, and he told me, he said i could have had the election on ten days, and i would have only won it one out of ten days. that happened to be the one day where it fell just right for me. but it's not just the misinformation that is being spread on other networks and on social media. that is part of it. you also, though, cannot underestimate -- and rachel

talks about this all the time -- the negative partisanship. i have heard from so many of my friends and family members who don't say they love donald trump. in fact, they don't say they like donald trump. in fact, they would not invite him over for dinner at thanksgiving. >> and if their kids acted like them, they would get in trouble. >> their kids would be grounded. it's so -- it's anti -- really, it's negative partisanship. it's their fear of the democrats. it's their fear of woke nation. it's their fear that their kids are going to go to college and get abused and get hammered because of political correctness. you can't even say that on television without people freaking out, and oh, white kids, i'm just explaining it to you. political correctness is something that is not spoken of.

it drives so much of donald trump's support. how do i know? i keep hearing it from one person after another when i say how can you support this man who has breached every constitutional norm, who's breached every political norm, who's breached every societal norm, and they will come back and talk about how democrats are socialists. they'll come back, they'll talk about political correctness. they'll come back, they'll talk about wokeness. it is the negative partisanship even more than it is donald trump. i want to say also really quickly that when i talked to the trump campaign and sat down about a year ago, about a year, year and a half ago, and i got a run through of their theory of the case on why they were going to win, their focus was pulling out non-college white voters, and they were focussing on it

maniacally. they would hold rallies. they would get data, they would trace people, geotagging. they would follow those people. they would find the people that did not -- that weren't registered to vote, that had never voted before, and they would do an all out political assault on them to get them registered and get them out to the polls, and that's exactly what we're starting to see right now. of course at the end of the conversation when i get this extraordinary song and dance, which actually -- actually i believed about how they were doing all these things and using this technology, the person that i was talking to said, well, of course this will help us if it's a one or two-point margin. this person even knew , said if it's five points one way or another it won't make a difference. i guess that's the question. if it's a close race, all of

these things that trump has been doing for four years, that his team has been doing for four years, what we're starting to see in these numbers will make a difference. if it's a blowout, all the get out the vote operations that you've been doing for four years won't make a difference. coming up, we'll break down the new battleground polls that are shaping this race, now just 19 days until election day. "morning joe" is back in a moment. how about no no

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let's take a look at the state of this race, new battleground state polling we've been talking about this morning. in new hampshire the latest boston globe suffolk university poll shows joe biden holding a ten-point lead in the state, 51 to 41. in georgia, that poll i mentioned a minute ago, the latest quinnipiac university poll shows joe biden ahead by seven points, 51 to 44. in north carolina, the latest "new york times" sienna college poll has the two candidates in a statistical tie with joe biden at 46%, president trump at 42%. in the state of ohio, the quinnipiac poll shows another statistical tie with joe biden at 48%, donald trump at 47. the latest nbc news wall street

journal poll gives joe biden an 11-point lead nationally among registered voters, that's 53 to 42%. vice president biden leads by 87 points among black voters, 36% among latino voters, by 32 points among voters under the age of 34, by 19 points among white college educated voters, and by ten points among senior citizens. the president, he leads here, 21 points among white voters without a college degree, by 5 among men and 4 among white voters. so joe, as we talk about all of these in total and as you were discussing the trump campaign wants to get out those voters, that base, white non-college. even if they do that, look what it's come at the expense of the senior voters he's done by 10 points. it will be very difficult for him to win down ten points among

seniors and getting clobbered among women, particularly among suburban women. >> that's the thing, you're right. there's always a tradeoff. we've talked about it for a couple of years. for every non-college educated white voter that he gets, he's turning off a suburban voter in the suburbs of atlanta. for every non-college educated white voter he gets by saying something that others would consider outrageous, if you're just generalizing these poll numbers, he loses a senior citizen, for every super spreader event, he loses a senior citizen in the suburbs of atlanta, and that, willie, is the problem. you take a state like georgia, i don't think it's seven points, but i'll tell you what, i haven't seen a poll with donald trump ahead in georgia for a couple of months. it's been tied. biden's been up one, up two. that state is deadlocked, and the reason why is democrats used

to win atlanta. republicans would always win in the suburbs of atlanta, and then we would win, obviously, out in rural parts. that's not the case anymore. now it's atlanta versus the rest of the state because the atlanta suburbs are breaking democratic because of donald trump, and other areas are breaking that way as well. and i want to say this, too, when i talked, willie, about that conversation i had with the trump strategist a couple of years ago, he said he would bet me any amount of money that donald trump would be sitting at 15, 20% among black voters. right now he's at 4% in the poll that came out last night. h hispanics, we heard how he was going to overperform with hispanics. this poll shows him at 26% among his ppanic

hispanics. george bush ended up at 42, 43, 44% in 2004. these aren't numbers of a winning candidate, and mika, in north carolina, i'll tell you what north carolina reminds me of. i remember back in 2012 cheering for mitt romney and looking at ohio every day and one poll after another had obama up two bs oba, obama up three, obama up four, it was stubborn for months. obama held a two, three, four-point lead and it was so frustrating. that's what trump people have to be thinking when they see those north carolina numbers. biden has held a stubborn, two, three, four-point lead throw the campaign. coming up, one of the senators who spent the past two days questioning supreme court nominee amy coney barrett, minority whip dick durbin standing byme.

he joins the conversation next on "morning joe." when joe biden wants an update on the virus,

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does the constitution give the president of the united states the authority to unilaterally delay a general election under any circumstances? does federal law? >> well, senator, if that question ever came before me, i would need to hear arguments from the litigants and read briefs and consult with my law clerks and talk to my colleagues and go through the opinion writing process. >> do you believe that every president should make a commitment unequivocally and resolutely to the peaceful transfer of power? >> well, senator, that seems to me to be pulling me in a little bit into this question of whether the president has said that he would not peacefully leave office, and so to the extent that this is a political

controversy right now, as a judge i want to stay out of it. >> do you think it's wrong to separate children from their parents to deter immigrants from coming to the united states? >> that's a matter of hot political debate in which i can't express a view or be drawn into as a judge. >> how about climate change, have you read about that? >> i've read about climate change. >> and you have some opinions on climate change you've thought about? >> you know, i'm certainly not a scientist. >> i'm not saying you are. >> i mean, i've read things about climate change, i would not say that i have firm views on it. >> i mean, listen, here's the deal supreme court justices are always -- our nominees are always tried to be pulled in whether they're on the left or whether they're on the right to try to weigh in on cases and how they'd rule in cases, and for the most part they stay away from that, and that's -- actually, it's a wise thing to do. it's also a wise thing to do to

stay away from political controversies. in this case at the same time judge barrett holds herself an originalist, so when there's a question about donald trump delaying the election, should a president be allowed to delay an election, if she's an originalist, go back and read the text. this is in the constitution. i don't know what your law clerks are going to tell you other than read the constitution. the same thing goes for the peaceful transfer of power, constitution, the laws, our heritage as a nation spells it out very clearly. this is not a controversy about donald trump or mike pence. they're on their own island. so i'm not sure why she was playing to an audience of one

there. you don't have to bring your cles cle clerks in to say, hey, could you check case law to see if there's a peaceful transfer of power -- it's not a political controversy, okay? that's not what is a political controversy. that is actually established in u.s. law. that's actually established in the united states constitution. again, an originalist shouldn't have that problem. i think you could take judicial notice of climate change. i really do. i think the science is so overwhelming that only politicians who also deny the wearing of masks, which is also, of course, not science, not medicine. it's just absolute lunacy, would be the only people. so i'm not exactly sure why she thinks something that is actually scientifically established, climate change, not exactly sure what her clerks are going to tell her there. she doesn't have to be a

scientist. she doesn't have to be albert einste einstein. just a couple of things, obviously should children be separated from their parents? the only thing i will say there is, yes, it is shocking to the conscious that that happen conscience that that happened. that is a political controversy in that the trump administration explicitly made that a political issue, made that their policy. it may be offensive when we listen to it. at the same time that is more of a political controversy. let me bring in dick durbin, i've talked long enough. let's talk to somebody who knows what they're talking about and has power. member of the judiciary committee minority whip, dick durbin. senator, i think our opinions are probably different on this. i mean, i personally believe that like ruth bader ginsburg, amy coney barrett, merrick

garland should be appointed to the supreme court if a president selects them and they go through the nomination process, but obviously this entire process has become so politicized, what do we expect to see as we move forward? is judge barrett going to have every republican voting for her and every democrat voting against her? >> well, i can't tell you, joe, there are two republican senators who have said they're not going along with this speeded up process, but i really appreciate what you were saying in the lead in to this. we've reached the point where we coached these nominees to not even say the obvious. when she was asked directly -- i asked her myself -- can a president unilaterally delay a presidential election? well, the answer is there are three express provisions in this constitution, which we all honor, and which as an originalist i honor especially, three specific provisions which

say that there will be an election. here's how the peaceful transition of power will go. i asked her can a president unilaterally deny women the right to vote. it may be a case someday. can people be denied the right to vote based on race. i wish i could answer that. this woman with such impressive credentials when it comes to her training and education hasn't even come up with a point of view on the issue of climate change, any point of view. she's still thinking about it. you know, that really strains credibility and it moves us back to the obvious place. we have to rely on tweets to figure out why this woman is sitting before us headed for the supreme court, and the tweets from the president make it clear. he has a political agenda to eliminate the affordable care act, overturn roe versus wade and he added a grace note here, he wants to make sure he has somebody on the court if there's an election contest who's going to rule his way. that's what is looming over this

nomination. >> again, if there is a political controversy, no judge before your panel should ever answer that. on climate change, though, again, i'm fairly certain that science is so overwhelming that it's moved from the realm of a political dispute or political debate. hey, let me ask you about something that's been a hot topi topic it's a little off topic here. it's been brought up. it's something that fascinates me because republicans have done it so much in the past. that is expanding the court. article 3 of the constitution says the court can be expanded. george washington said it his way. then john adams did the same, then thomas jefferson did the same. then andrew jackson did the same, then lincoln did the same. then the republicans did the same after lincoln was assassinated. then grant did the same. of course fdr tried to do it because after the republicans

had done it so many times, they controlled the supreme court for 70, 80 years. it is constitutional, is it not, under article 3 for a republican or a democratic congress to expand our contract the number of justices on a court? >> the number of justices is decided by statute, not by constitution, and of course it could be changed. but this notion that we're sitting in the back room plotting what's going to happen in the future of the supreme court is not true, at least not in any meetings i've attended or heard about. we are focused on the election. we're focused on electing joe biden and a democratic majority in the senate. we want to make sure that future appointments to federal courts are going to be balanced. what we've seen under mitch mcconnell is he denied to barack obama for years, two years any seats on the circuit court and then filled every one of them as fast as possible. so that's the reality of where the federal court system is today. >> one final quick question, and then i'll pass it on to other people. donald trump actually tweeted that he needed to get somebody

on the supreme court as quickly as possible to rule on his election and the challenges that he would be pushing because i think as most of us know, he fears he's going to lose the election. so donald trump actually said that amy coney barrett was there to rule for him to get -- to be able to get another four years. ted cruz basically said the same thing, said we need to get a justice up there as quickly as possible because they're are gog to be challenges and we need nine justices instead of eight. i am a lawyer. i may not be a good lawyer, but i know that there's not a judge that i was ever before in northwest florida that wouldn't make a justice appointed under such conditions recuse themselves. what are your thoughts? >> well, first, i remember being told many times you were a great plaintiffs lawyer in your day, and i would say in terms of the

current situation facing us, yes, it raises a serious question. because she refused time and again to answer any questions of substance, the fall back position is what did the president promise when he sent her nomination to us. he told us what we could expect from this supreme court justice. that is the agenda, the elimination of the affordable care act and everything that flows from it, that stares us in the face and explains why we're going through this hurry up approach to her nomination. >> senator durbin, it's willie geist, good to see you this morning. we got some new unemployment numbers that crossed 898,000 new unemployment claims. that number continues to rise. 25 million americans currently collecting unemployment. majority leader mitch mcconnell has said next week when the senate comes back into session, he's going to get something going, a targeted bill to help these people, to help small businesses. what is the status of those negotiations? it's been weeks and weeks and weeks and months since that last

$600 check went out to a family who desperately needs it right now. how do you change this dynamic that's going on in capitol hill? >> willie, understand why mitch mcconnell got religion just a day or two ago, he's getting the hell kicked out of him by the people across america who say what are you doing with this hurry up hearing on the supreme court when we should be dealing with the coronavirus, and people who are infected and dying. and all of the people who are unemployed, it was mitch mcconnell who sat on his hands for months after nancy pelosi passed the h.e.r.o.e.s. act in the united states house of representatives and did nothing, and then he comes up and says take a little bit of this and a little bit of that. nancy pelosi's right, we ought to take this seriously. we ought to focus our attention on it. we ought to do what's necessary, put our foot on the accelerator to help these families who are unemployed and to have finally a policy of testing that gives people peace of mind when it comes to their health status. >> dick durbin, thank you so

much. thank you for lying about my abilities as a lawyer. it means a lot to my kids. >> it's not my first lie, thank you. >> exactly. there you go. >> thank you. >> so -- and he's talking of course about all the false modesty. he's an honorary southerner in that way. let me read from "the wall street journal" breaking news, these numbers not good. and i'm not saying this for political reasons, we've been saying it for quite some time. whoever gets elected president this fall, if donald trump gets reelect order joe biden gets in there, they are going to have a horrible thankless task next year because of the economy. it's not bet getting better. it says recent declines and continuing claims represent individuals who have exhausted the maximum duration of payments available through regular state programs and are now collecting money through the federal programs. large corporations have announced job cuts in recent

weeks including at&t, warner media, walt disney company, and all state. many of those workers will likely seek unemployment benefits in the coming weeks. the economy more prodly broadly flashing signs of slowdowns. monthly job gains have cooled as have growth in job postings and consumer spending. more workers are reporting their layoffs as permanent, and of course what you were just talking about to senator durbin, a federally funded extra $600 in weekly unemployment benefits expired at the end of july. >> yeah. july. yeah. >> and so there are 25 million people out of work. man, there is a lot of suffering out there, and congress and the president are doing nothing about it. >> and no hope on the horizon. that's why i asked senator durbin that questionment i mean, all we've seen is completely divergent views on this. we have nancy pelosi holding her ground. she said we put something on mitch mcconnell's desk months

ago. he hasn't done anything with it. mitch mcconnell feeling some pressure saying okay, we'll do something next week. it's got to be targeted. we're not going in for this big $2 trillion bill speaker pelosi wants. that leaves tens of millions of people in the lurch. they're not sprinterested in th fight on capitol hill. they just know they can't pay the bills as millions, literally millions of americans over the last six months have been plunged into poverty because of what's happening in this country. "new york times" this morning according to columbia university researchers, the number of poor people has grown by 8 million since may. >> there you go. >> so by 8 million since may and we also have studies that show that the richest people on the planetin planet, billionaires, have made a killing during this pandemic, and have increased how much they're worth by, what is it,

25, 30, 35%. it's been staggering how during this pandemic, once again, richa richard haas, the rich are getting exponentially richer, the poor are getting exponentially poorer and congress and the president of the united states who bragged about killing a relief bill, a covid relief bill, bragged about it, has gotten his wish. nothing's getting done. up next, several texas counties shatter records for first day early voting. but will it be enough to overcome suppression efforts? we'll get the latest from on the ground in texas. keep it right here on "morning joe." and it's made for her she's serving now we also made usaa for military spouses and their kids become a member. get an insurance quote today. we also made usaa for military spouses and their kids ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. texas saw a record number of voters in long lines for the state's first day of early voting on tuesday. according to the texas tribune, voters in harris county shattered the record on the first day of in-person voting with more than 128,000 ballots cast and more than 1 million cast statewide. this as the race in texas remains close. the latest morning consult poll places president trump up two just outside the margin of error. >> if you believe some polls, a tight senate race with john cornyn. >> joining us now, professor of the lyndon b. johnson of public affairs at the university of texas and an msnbc contributor, victoria de francesco so thea

and walter isaacson and former senior adviser for the house oversight committee, kurt bar della, the senior adviser to the lincoln project. >> we saw a lot of my old friends in safe republican seats in the suburbs of dallas losing those seats. i'm curious, as you look in the poll numbers now, we've been talking about this for a decade. at some point texas goes purple and then blue. are we at a stage now where texas is officially purple? >> i would officially give it the purple mark. i don't know if i'm going to say it's absolutely blue. we're going to see in a couple of weeks. but all indications point to it getting more and more purple. we have had over a million folks register to vote since 2018. and let me point out, joe, remember the loss by 200,000 votes in 2018 and over the course of that time we've seen a million new voters.

at the same time, republicans know this. there's a reason why at every turn they're putting up blocks and trying to restrict voting when there's no large-scale evidence of voter fraud. there's nothing of that. they are worried. they are worried about the state turning purple and eventually blue and they're also worried about those 38 electoral college votes. next to california, we have the most electoral college votes. so i think just seeing the number of lawsuits the republican party in texas is putting forward indicate house scared they are and then couple that with the record-breaking early turnout. there's a lot of cost to be nervous by the gop here. >> walter, can you compare what you saw during the days of segregation and what you saw in the 1960s as conservative democratic governors try to stop black voters from voting in overwhelming numbers? can you compare that to what we saw, for instance, in texas,

where now greg abbott is actually trying to limit voting drop boxes to one per county, which is beyond outrageous, especially for a county like harris county. do you see parallels there? >> yeah. i think voter suppression is a dagger in the heart of democracy. and if, indeed, the republicans keep doing it, i think it will terribly rebound against them. tomorrow morning, i'm going to go vote early here in louisiana. and the arena, because the nba is done it is open for voting. i suspect there will be long lines but i think there are people who are saying i'm going to get out there and vote the first day, even though there are long lines because i'm reacting against this attempt at voter suppression. and i think what we're seeing, just like you talked about in texas, is we're seeing a bifurcation in southern states in particular where certain cities, whether it's austin and houston and even dallas to some extent have become very

democratic. austin in particular, same with new orleans. it's a sort of blue enclave in a red state. >> all right. so kurt, you ask in your latest piece for "usa today," why do republicans still work for trump? and you write in part this. in recent weeks, covid-19 has swept across the upper echelon of the republican party, infecting everyone from the president of the united states to the chair of the republican national committee. the white house entourage is considered so high risk that some news organizations are refusing to travel with trump and senate majority leader mitch mcconnell said last week he hasn't been to the white house since early august due to lax covid rules. to my former republican colleagues, i ask you, is working for trump worth your own life or the lives of your spouse, children and loved ones? it doesn't matter what job you get next, what contract you

land, what promotion you're up for if you're dead. think about it. those you serve have knowingly put you in harm's way. they don't care about your health. they don't care about your life. knowing what they know now, they would gladly sacrifice your well-being again. to them, you are invisible. you are replaceable. you are disposabldisposable. and kurt, you know, the words hurt, but still think the same people are going to go to work today and operate in the same fashion. why is it? >> you know, this is a question that i get most from my social circle than any other, which is how can these people still work for donald trump and the republican party? how can these people i used to work with being a former republican, a former staffer on capitol hill, how do these people show up every day to what has turned into one of the most dangerous places to work in america somehow. and that's the question that i

grapple with in this piece for "usa today." and the only answer that i've been able to surmise in talking with people that i still know that are still working for republicans, still working for trump is that they don't know what else to do with themselves professionally. washington is built in a way, i know joe knows this being a former congressman, where your political identity is your team. and once you are on that team, it's really hard to make a change and go somewhere else. when i left the republican party a few years ago there was no lincoln project yet or republican vets. i was out there on my own trying to figure it out. i didn't know where my next paycheck was going to come from or what i was going to do professionally. the professional network i spent my career building had been evaporated from me by making the change and leaving the party and speaking out. that's the conundrum so many people face. i don't think most people who work in this government right now actually like donald trump, actually believe in him and are actually hoping he wins again. i think they just don't know

what else to do with themselves and in a place that operates only on self-interest, i am -- i am trying to make the point it's now in your self-interest, your own health's self-interest to walk away from this while you still can. >> certainly a lot more of you now, kurt. victoria, i want to ask about the state of the presidential race right now in the state you cover, the state where you work, in texas. there are a lot of polls showing it's neck and neck. a lot of people who don't believe that joe biden actually could win that state. people who look at the change in texas, weren't sure it would happen by now in 2020. maybe '24 or '28. does joe biden have a real chance to snatch those 38 electoral votes? >> you know, i went from dubious to cautiously optimistic. i think that there is a real chance, if we see these early vote numbers that we've seen so far, keep up, i think joe biden could grab those 38 votes. >> wow. >> all right.

victoria, thank you so much for being with us. kurt bardella, thank you as well, and walter, we need to talk to you some more. willie and i especially. >> oh, dear. >> we want you to write a book about us and our next scientific project that we think will win us the nobel prize. >> you know, we'll get you the nobel prize. you, willie and mika. >> so can you come back tomorrow, walter? >> yeah, exactly. i'm ready. hacking the swedish academy is easier than hacking other elections. >> all right. fantastic. walter, thank you. and, joe, i am speaking now, so that does it for us this morning. stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage right now. >> hi there. i'm stephanie ruhle. it is good to be back with you on this thursday, october 15th. let's get smarter. we are now just 19 days away from the big election. and there are massive stori