so her spirit can live on. >> give me a kiss. thank you. can i have another kiss? this sunday, politics and the pandemic. >> this election is a choice between a trump recovery and a biden depression. >> with the presidential election now just two weeks away -- >> everybody knows who donald trump is! let's show him who we are! >> and joe biden leading by double digits, president trump searching for some way to turn things around. >> suburban women, will you please like me? please. please. i saved your damn neighborhood, okay? >> even as tens of millions of people have already voted. are we looking at a biden landslide, or could there be another shocking election night? plus, heading for a third covid surge. >> we're likely to grapple with

a situation where, really, every part of the nation's going to be lit up by infection. >> president trump claiming falsely that the pandemic is disappearing. >> you know what, we have the vaccine. it's ending, too. we're rounding the turn. >> attacking michigan governor gretchen whitmer as the lockup queen. >> you've got to get your governor to open up your state, okay? [ crowd chanting ] >> lock her up! >> as cases spike from coast to coast. >> utah's now facing its most desire episode yet in this epidemic. >> i would tell you, wisconsin is in a crisis. >> north carolinians must be even more vigilant. >> this morning, i speak to governor whitmer, health and human services secretary michael az azar. joining me are mark leibovich, chief correspondent for "the new york times" magazine, former democratic congresswoman donna edwards, ashley parker, white house reporter for the "washington post," and former republican governor of north carolina, pat mccrory. welcome to sunday. it's "meet the press."

>> announcer: from nbc news in washington, the longest running show in television history, this is "meet the press with chuck todd." >> good sunday morning. as if we hadn't faced enough already in this year, 2020 is about to deal us two more challenges. first, in two weeks, our deeply divided country will have a election that will reveal its character and direction over the next four years. in our new nbc news/"wall street journal" journal, by a 50%-34% margin, registered voters say they are better off now than four years ago. good news for president trump, right? while at the same time, by a 58%-38%, voters say the country is worse off than it was four years ago. so, what do those seemingly contradictory results tell us? that this year, it is not the economy, stupid. it's the coronavirus, which brings us to the second challenge -- a frightening, new surge of infections and covid-19 deaths. we've recently experienced an increase in cases that looked

like a third peak, with friday hitting the largest one-day total since march 4th, in peak two. washington, d.c., has seen case numbers increase by 20% or more. with the virus the greatest threat to re-election, the president insists we are rounding the corner. rounding the corner. or are we really going in circles? >> we win wisconsin, we win the whole ball game. >> reporter: president trump campaigning in a handful of states he won four years ago. >> we're going to win the state of north carolina! we're going to win the state of florida. i love georgia. we're going to win the state of michigan. >> trailing nationally by 11 points, the president is beginning to talk about losing. >> could you imagine if i lose? my whole life, what am i going to do? i'm going to say, i lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics! i'm not going to feel so good. maybe i'll have to leave the country? i don't know. >> he is arguing, his fund-raising numbers, which fall far short of biden's, are a

choice. >> i could raise more money. i've been the world's greatest fund raiseer but i just don't want to do it. >> reporter: and dwelling on his 26-point deficit among women. >> i think suburban women like me. and frankly, i've saved your way of life. i've saved the american dream, but they keep saying, trump has a problem. >> mr. trump is spending most of his team on the trail focused on his personal grievances. >> the media has become crazed, and the big tech companies have become crazed. and it's very unfair, you know? it's so unfair. you should lock them up. [ crowd chanting ] >> lock up the bidens. lock up hillary. >> republicans on capitol hill are beginning to distance themselves. >> i'm now looking at the possibility of a republican blood bath in the senate. it's going to be, what the heck were any of us thinking that selling a tv-obsessed, narcissistic individual to the american people was a good idea? it is not a good idea. >> y'all have a good chance of winning the white house. >> as coronavirus cases rise sharply around the country -- >> we've had many record-setting days recently for hospitalizations, new cases, and

covid-19 deaths. >> 2,532 new cases reported since yesterday, which is our highest one-day record. >> utah's now facing its most dire episode yet. >> president trump is denying the reality of the numbers. >> we're rounding the corner. >> turning the corner? my lord! it's not disappearing. in fact, it's on the rise again. >> and the president continues to make false claims about mask-wearing. >> i'm okay with masks. i tell people wear masks. but just the other day, they came out with a statement that 85% of the people that wear masks catch it. >> when a president doesn't wear a mask or makes fun of folks like me when i was wearing a mask for a long time, then, you know, people say, well, it mustn't be that important. >> on that issue, republicans are pushing back. >> i was the one who said we need to wear mask, practice social distancing. >> i always do promote the cdc regulations. >> i let my guard down, and it was wrong. it was just a big mistake. >> and joining me now is the

secretary of health and human services, alex azar. secretary azar, welcome back to "meet the press." let me start with something that i think is a bit confusing right now to those of us in the professional press corps, but maybe even plenty of viewers at home, and that is simply, who is leading the public health strategy right now for the federal government as these cases go up? is it you? is it the task force? is it scott atlas? is it deborah birx? is it dr. fauci? there's a lot of confusion about who is leading the public health policy discussions in the federal government level. >> well, chuck, of course, the president's leading the overall whole-of-government response and he's making all of us as public health leaders available to help educate the public, but what matters right now is the message that we're trying to get across, which is cases are increasing. you talked about that in your opening segment. cases are increasing. and we're seeing this happen because we're getting colder weather and we're losing that national social distancing that happens from being out of doors. and people are getting tired. the american people have given

so much. we're seeing mitigation fatigue right now. and you know, i just hope that we have so much promise in the weeks and months ahead, next-generation therapeutics, safe and effective vaccines. please, my message to the american people, please, practice those three ws -- wash your hands, watch your distance, wear your face coverings when you can't watch your distance, stay out of settings where you can't do those things. and really, please, chuck, tell your viewers, be mindful of those indoor household gatherings. just because you're related to someone or friends with someone doesn't mean you can't transmit or get transmitted to. >> let me ask you about indoor gatherings. you were with the president in florida two days ago at a large indoor gathering in ft. myers. now, that's a state that no longer has really any restrictions. every locality is basically on its own there. but you know, i hear you, what you just -- the message you just sent, and i'll be honest, i was going to ask about this later in our interview, but you just sent that message.

you were in that room. what message are we sending? what example are you setting as a top public health official participating in indoor events like that? >> chuck, for that policy event, masks were distributed to all of the individuals attending and the chairs were set up in a socially distanced way. and of course, i wore face covering throughout. we encourage people to wear face korgz. and i wish everybody there would have worn face coverings and maintained social distancing, chuck. our advice is the same, no matter the setting, wash your hands, watch your distance, wear face coverings when you can't watch your distance. >> i guess, how are americans supposed to take your advice here if the president of the united states doesn't take your advice? in fact, he's been in the state -- he was in the state of wisconsin. the state of wisconsin. you guys at the task force have warned the state of wisconsin, they're in the red zone. big events are a bad idea right now. and the president's campaign did what? held a big event in a state in the red zone. so again, i go back to this --

what example is being set by the federal government? >> chuck, we're seeing increases in states, whether red or blue, open or closed. we're seeing an explosion of cases in europe, europe, the most locked down country of western democracies and they've got more cases per million than we have in the united states. some countries on a population-adjusted basis have two, three times what we have in the u.s. the ticket is in our own hands, chuck. it's what i talked about at the outset. it's about those basic public health mitigation steps. we have it in our individual control. it's our ticket to be reconnected to education, to worship, to work, to health care, and also to our public and civic life, chuck. wear a face covering when you can't be socially distant, chuck. >> so, why has that message been so difficult for the president? >> i think it's a difficult message for all western democracies. we're seeing that in europe. people are tired. the american people have given so much. people of europe have given so much, chuck. they've been locked down. they've been isolated and they're tired. but the point is, we're so close.

hang in there with us. we are so close. we are weeks away from monoclonal antibodies for you, from safe and effective vaccines. we need to bridge to that day. so, please, just give us a bit more time of your individual, responsible behavior of washing your hands, watch your distance, wear your face coverings when you can't watch your distance, chuck. >> do you wish the president had your urgency? your urgency's very compelling to me, mr. secretary. it really is. i just do not see it repeated by anybody above your pay grade. >> well, you know, the president at that event in florida in ft. myers actually asked our seniors, said to them, listen, i'm glad you're here and you're engaged in your civic and public life and reconnected, but if you feel vulnerable, if you assess your own situation, he said, please stay home, protect yourself, first and foremost, protect yourself. that's my message also to everybody is, first and foremost, protect yourself and protect those in your family. >> let me ask you about dr. scott atlas and the experts he brought in for you to meet with.

the president is implying he's open to herd immunity. is herd immunity now official health policy of the federal government? is that what the fafetask force essentially pushing us towards, is some form of herd immunity? >> chuck, i'll meet with individuals who are experts to learn, listen, to hear perspectives. i'll tell you, one important part of that interaction was just the real focus on the core need to really protect those most vulnerable. we've done a great job now protecting our seniors, the most vulnerable in our nursing homes through expanded testing, as well as mitigation efforts and control. when we get our vaccination program, which we launched in florida through cvs and walgreens, where they're going to partner with us to vaccinate all of our seniors in nursing homes right away, that's part of that effort. but let me be clear, chuck -- what am i focused on? what's our policy? we're trying to reduce cases, reduce hospitalizations to make sure we stay within our health care resources, and reduce fatalities as much as possible so we can get to that day, whether it's weeks or just a

couple months away, from monoclonal antibodies to treat and prevent this disease and vaccine to bring us out of this. >> you didn't answer the question on herd immunity. is that formal policy at this point now? >> well, i think i essentially did, which is, no, that's not our policy. it's the desire through vaccination to get to herd immunity, but it may be an outcome of all of those steps. but the desire is reduce cases, reduce cases, reduce hospitalizations, reduce fatalities. that's what i am focused on every day. i wake up every day with that as my mission, and the core to that is get us safe therapeutics and safe vaccines in historic, record time. chuck, look, the pfizer ceo just announced that by the end of november, he thinks they may be submitting an application for a vaccine. ten months after this pandemic hit our shores! this is incredible, historic news, chuck, that we ought to be celebrating and have a great sense of optimism for, but also, a recommitment -- bridge to that date. bridge to that date.

>> let me ask you a question about the vaccine and the distribution plan. have you briefed the biden transition team on this? >> no, i have not. i haven't been asked to. but i'll follow whatever protocols there are for cooperation in terms of any efforts. but no, that hasn't been asked for. what we're working on is actually working with our state and local authorities on the vaccination plan. 63 of 64 states on friday submitted their vaccine distribution plans. the other one just asked for a short extension. that's all going extremely well and the cvs/walgreens partnership will be critical to making sure it's. >> the president's crowd was chanting "lock her up" about the governor. is it good to brow-beat local officials in what they're doing to contain the virus? >> i'm not going to get into politics. i'll talk about red state, blue state, open state, closed state, open country, closed country.

we see these cases spreading, why? because we've been in this many months and people are tired. i talked about this in february and march, which is mitigation fatigue. people get tired. but the steps to mitigate right now are simple -- please, wash your hands, watch your distance, wear your face coverings when you can't watch your distance, stay out of settings where you can't to those things and be mindful of indoor gatherings now as it gets cold and keep your guard up. hang in there with us, because the days are bright ahead. >> mr. secretary, if your message was coming out of the president's mouth, i think it would make a lot of public health officials a lot happier. >> well, chuck, the president's been saying wear masks ever since the april reopening guidelines. i'm his secretary. i speak for him. i'm telling you, that's the message. that's what i'm asking you to do, on behalf of the president. do those things, to the american people. >> secretary azar, i'm going to leave it there. i appreciate you coming on and sharing the perspective of the administration. and joining me now is the

democratic governor of michigan. it's gretchen whitmer. governor whitmer, welcome back to "meet the press." i want to start with the state of the virus in your state before we get to the politics around the virus. so, first, give me an update. where is your state? i know you're part of this huge spike that most of the country is in. you had some of your restrictions wiped away by the supreme court. i know some of them are going to get implemented, but here, you're rising, and your power to mitigate this virus may be being eliminated. what do you do? >> that's right, chuck. so, we are seeing covid cases rise in michigan. that's what the epidemiologists told us all along was going to happen closer to the fall. but i'm concerned, because of course, the supreme court decision in my state has created a lot of confusion and has worked to undermine the work that we've done here. we crushed our covid spike early on. our economy rebounded. we're one of the top ten rebounding economies in the nation. however, it's all at risk, and this partisan decision out of our supreme court makes it more precarious than ever, a

situation that's already very dangerous. >> what recourse do you have? i know that -- can you -- they didn't really cite any michigan law. they didn't cite any law on deciding why you suddenly didn't have this power. do you have -- is this something that you want to send to the u.s. supreme court or are you just going to try to work around it using other legal channels? >> well, i'm going to continue doing my job. so, i've got other powers that we are using. we have epidemic powers that my director of the health and human services have, so we still have a statewide mask mandate. we still have restrictions on gatherings. we still have the ability to create workplace safety for our workers. so, there are a lot of things that we're still going to continue to do. i'm not going to get distracted by attacks from the white house or a supreme court here in the state that is undermining my work. i'm going to keep going forward and doing everything i can to protect my people. >> how do you -- how are you going to account for lockdown

fatigue, mitigation fatigue? i mean, that is real. we know this is real. in your efforts this time to convince your constituents to abide by the rules? >> yeah, so, last night, the president talked about lockdowns. we haven't had a stay-home order since late spring, but i know that he never lets the facts get in the way of comments that he's making. every moment that we are not focused on the fact that there are 220,000 americans who have died from this virus is good for him. so, in that sense, as he incites additional violence against people who are just trying to save one another's lives, it's good for him. and that's why i don't want to talk about him endangering public servants' lives. i want to talk about what he hasn't done, and that's his job. the trump virus response is the worst in the globe, i mean, in the world! it's the worst. 8 million people have contracted covid-19. 220,000 dead. we've got people in food pantry

lines who never would have imagined that they'd be there. and no light on the horizon because our numbers keep going up. this is a gravely serious moment for all of us. and if you're tired of lockdowns or you're tired of wearing masks or you wish you were in church this morning or watching college football or your kids were in in-person instruction, it is time for change in this country and that's why we have got to elect joe biden. >> i want to get you to react here to something from -- the mayor of sioux falls, a republican, i spoke to him on friday. i'm guessing you're going to emphasize with what he has to say. again, republican mayor of sioux falls. listen. >> trying to enforce any government restrictions at this point in the game, even if i felt that was the right thing to do, it's a nonstarter in the community right now. it's difficult for us at the local level. it's difficult for us as local leaders, county commissioners, mayors, to deal with how politicized this has gotten. and it makes it frustrating.

>> do you put this all on the president, that basically, he's created this environment, and it's hamstrung everybody up and down the government infrastructure in this country? >> i do think that the person with the biggest megaphone bears a lot of responsibility here. it's true. this is a public health crisis. it should not be a partisan moment. and yet, he has made it that way to deflect from his administration's inability to get their arms around it. people are dying. people are out of work. people are looking for help just putting food on the table. and there is no relief in sight. our numbers keep getting worse. and that is the sad, hard truth of this moment, chuck. we should have acted as though we were in a war, but not a war with one another, a war with a virus. and this virus doesn't care what side of the aisle you vote on. this virus is still a very real threat to all of us. and if we could all muster the american spirit and put our masks on and take care of ourselves and one another, we will all be better off.

>> how confident are you that joe biden's going to carry michigan? >> i feel good about it, but i'm not leaving anything to chance. i am working incredibly hard to make sure that he does win. i'm working hard to make sure that we have the ability to elect our supreme court in michigan, and so, for welch and mccormick who are on the ballot, i'm working hard to elect them. because this is a moment where we, as americans, have to elect leaders that are going to look out for our health, going to look out for our economy, get us back to work, and make america a leader in the fight against covid, not a laggard. >> and then finally, last night at the top of our show, we made reference -- and you became a target of the president personally -- a "lock her up" chant targeting you, started and seemed to be almost encouraged at times by the president there. you've already come under threat once. what does something like this do to you personally?

i'm just -- i know how you're acting professionally here. i'm just wondering how this impacts your family personally. i mean, that's a lot to deal with. >> you know, it's incredibly disturbing that the president of the united states, ten days after a plot to kidnap, put me on trial and execute me, ten days after that was uncovered, the president is at it again and inspiring, incentivizing and inciting this kind of domestic terrorism. it is wrong. it's got to end. it is dangerous, not just for me and my family, but for public servants everywhere who are doing their jobs and trying to protect their fellow americans. people of goodwill on both sides of the aisle need to step up and call this out and bring the heat down. this is the united states of america. we do not tolerate actions like he is giving comfort to, and that's why we all have to be in this together.

>> governor gretchen whitmer, democrat from michigan, i appreciate you coming on, sharing your views, and obviously, we hope that you and your family continue to stay safe. >> thanks, chuck. up next, president trump insists we're rounding the corner on the coronavirus. you heard hhs secretary alex azar moments ago say we're so close, we're going to get there. when we come back, we're going to hear from one of the country's top epidemiologists about what we're really facing this fall and winter. s about what we're really facing this fall and winter

the ups and downs of frequent mood swings can take you to deep, depressive lows. or, give you unusually high energy, even when depressed. overwhelmed by bipolar i? ask about vraylar. some medicines only treat the lows or highs. vraylar effectively treats depression, acute manic and mixed episodes of bipolar i in adults. full-spectrum relief for all bipolar i symptoms, with just one pill, once a day. elderly patients with dementia-related psychosis have an increased risk of death or stroke. call your doctor about unusual changes in behavior

or suicidal thoughts. antidepressants can increase these in children and young adults. report fever, stiff muscles, or confusion, which may mean a life-threatening reaction, or uncontrollable muscle movements, which may be permanent. side effects may not appear for several weeks. high cholesterol and weight gain, high blood sugar, which can lead to coma or death, may occur. movement dysfunction, sleepiness, and stomach issues are common side effects. when bipolar i overwhelms, vraylar helps smooth the ups and downs. do you support herd immunity as a strategy, essentially, just let people get sick? >> so, the cure cannot be worse than the problem itself. we did the right thing. we were expected to lose 2,200,000 people, and maybe more than that. we're at 210,000 people. >> welcome back. as my colleague, savannah guthrie, pointed out in thursday's nbc news town hall, what president trump just said there was not true. the 2 million figure was only if we had done nothing, zilch, zip,

which, of course, nobody was proposing at the time. what you did not hear in that answer was a repudiation of herd immunity, letting people get sick to build up resistance among millions. it is a strategy promoted by coronavirus task force adviser scott atlas. you heard secretary azar say it was not official policy. michael osterholm is with from the university of arizona. do you share the optimism that secretary azar expressed with us this morning? >> i don't, only in the sense that, again, we're not really telling the complete story. we do have vaccines and therapeutics coming down the pike, but when you actually look at the time period for that, the next 6 to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic. vaccines will not become available in any meaningful way until early to third quarter of next year, and even then, half

of the u.s. population at this point is skeptical of even taking the vaccine. so, what we have right now is a major problem in messaging. you know, people don't know what to believe. and that's one of our huge challenges going forward is we've got to get the message to the public that reflects the science and reflects reality. >> do you have any idea of who's running the public -- the federal government public health response at this point? is it -- do you suspect that dr. atlas is now the leading scientist in the president's ear, and so, therefore, dictating policy, like potentially herd immunity? >> you know, i don't know if there is a lead. there are a lot of different voices, which is part of the problem that i just mentioned. we don't have a consolidated, one voice. and this is not just about the science. right now, what we're about to go into, chuck -- when i was on this show last, on september 13th, we had 33,000 cases reported that day. you may recall, i warned that we were going to see a very dark fall. friday we had 70,000 cases, matching the largest number we

had seen back during the really serious peak in july. that number, we're going to blow right through that. and between now and the holidays, we will see numbers much, much larger than even the 67,000 to 75,000 cases. no one has a good story about what to do there. and what i mean by a story -- this is more than just science. this is bringing people together to understand why are we doing this. this is an fdr fireside chat approach, and we're just not doing that. >> let me ask you this -- if joe biden wins on november 3rd, what's the first thing you'd like him to do? >> first of all, we have to cut through all of this partisan issues around the virus. now, i'm not naive to think that that's going to happen overnight, but we have to lay out, what are we trying to do? what is our plan? right now, actually, believe it or not, we want to achieve herd immunity, but we don't want to get there through disease. we want to get there through a vaccination program. if you already have half of the population skeptical of a

vaccine -- and we're going to try to get ourselves through this come spring and early summer -- we're already going to shoot ourselves in the foot. and so, we need somebody to start to articulate, what is our long-term plan? how are we going to get there? why are we asking people to sacrifice distancing? why are we telling people, if you really love your family, you won't go home for thanksgiving or christmas, and end up inspecting mom or dad or grandpa and grandma? we don't have that story-telling going on right now, and that's every bit as important as the science itself. >> you just referred to something that i was going to ask you more directly. is it pretty clear that nobody should travel for the holidays? and i know nobody -- you know, we're america, it's still freedom of movement. but realistically, we ought to plan on not traveling? >> you know, this is our covid year. let's accept it. it's not like last year, and it's not, hopefully, going to be like next year. but i have seen far too many situations where family get-togethers, even weddings,

funerals, family reunions, birthday parties, graduation parties have happened where someone brings the virus into the household, unknowingly, and then, four weeks later, at least one or more of the family members are dead. you know, no one wants to be responsible for that. so if you really love the people that you have in your immediate family, et cetera, you know, think through this and actually do them the greatest gift of all, and that is distance yourself this year and don't expose them. it's not ideal. we know that. but we're trying to get through to getting vaccines to then make it next year a much, much more likely situation where you can do that safely. >> on herd immunity, i don't know if you saw over late last week where there was a back-and-forth with another scientist who was trying to get to dr. atlas. and apparently, atlas is claiming there is a likelihood only as few as 25% of folks need

the infection for herd immunity, potentially, to kick in. is that even possible without a robust vaccine? >> you know, that -- first of all, that 20% number is the most amazing combination of pixie dust and pseudo science i've ever seen. so you know, let's just move on. it is 50% to 70% at minimum. and remember, when we talk about getting to 50% to 70% protection, we're talking, you can get there with disease, but if that happens, there will be lots of deaths, a lot of serious illnesses, or we can try to get there with vaccine. and postponing the number of people who get sick, until we have the vaccines available. once you get to 50% to 70%, that's kind of like what you hear when you're on the airplane and they announce we're about to descend into laguardia. you still have 30 minutes of flight time. 50% to 70% just slows down transmission. it doesn't stop it. so, this virus is going to keep looking for wood to burn for as long as it can. and you know, technically, it would get closer to 100% over

time. so, while our goal is to get as many people protected with vaccine, and we have to tell that story. we have to tell how we're going to get there. we have to tell people why we can get there. that's what we need to do right now, an we're not doing that. >> well, dr. michael osterholm, you are always very clear and straightforward with our viewers, which is why we find you to be as good of an expert as we can find these days, when the government -- >> thank you. >> -- reif you sees to provide scientists to these sunday shows. michael osterholm, thank you. coming up, joe biden's campaign manager says the race is closer than the polls suggest. president trump's campaign manager still sees a path to victory. i'll ask the panel about that when we return. ctory. i'll ask the panel about that when we return

the ups and downs of frequent mood swings can take you to deep, depressive lows. or, give you unusually high energy, even when depressed. overwhelmed by bipolar i? ask about vraylar. some medicines only treat the lows or highs. vraylar effectively treats depression, acute manic and mixed episodes of bipolar i in adults.

full-spectrum relief for all bipolar i symptoms, with just one pill, once a day. elderly patients with dementia-related psychosis have an increased risk of death or stroke. call your doctor about unusual changes in behavior or suicidal thoughts. antidepressants can increase these in children and young adults. report fever, stiff muscles, or confusion, which may mean a life-threatening reaction, or uncontrollable muscle movements, which may be permanent. side effects may not appear for several weeks. high cholesterol and weight gain, high blood sugar, which can lead to coma or death, may occur. movement dysfunction, sleepiness, and stomach issues are common side effects. when bipolar i overwhelms, vraylar helps smooth the ups and downs.

welcome back. the panel is joining us -- mark leibovich with "the new york times" magazine, former democratic congresswoman donna edwards, white house reporter for the "washington post," ashley parker, and former republican governor of north carolina, pat mccrory. i want to start with this reality, though i'll admit i'm still a little shaken by michael osterholm's dark preview of the next 6 to 12 weeks. but ashley, some 27 million people have already voted in this election. by thursday's debate, it is possible a full third of the electorate will have already cast their ballots, which brings us to this -- what can change the trajectory of this race? we may have 50 million people may have already voted by thursday. >> well, one thing the trump campaign is counting on is that on the whole, more of those early voters are democrats. that's something bill stepien

admitted on a campaign call. he basically said, look, democrats do have an advantage in sort of early voting, but for the trump people, one thing they are focused on is that they believe their voters are the sorts of voters who will show up on election day at the polls. so, for the trump campaign, at least, it means that get out the vote efforts do matter. it means that persuasion does still matter. and it means that if the president could show even an iota of discipline, changing what he says at rallies, perhaps tweeting less, doing what he did -- you remember the final stretch of 2016, where he actually did reseed a bit from public view and was disciplined. that could matter for the trump campaign. and for the biden side, you can see his campaign putting out memos and saying in conference calls as well, do not let up, do not take this for granted. the polls will tighten. national polls do not matter. what matters is the electoral college and this election could come down to 30,000 votes again in two or three key states.

>> you know, mark leibovich, my partner on "first read," mark murray, emailed me yesterday and he says, you know, i'm having deja vu. there's the president. he's talking about, he's trying to get hacked emails covered, dubious russian connections, "lock her up" chants. but there is a difference. the president's grievances this time are his. he's not channeling his voter grievances. four years ago, the "lock her up" chants, he would talk about the border or trade, talk about other issues, other than personal grievances. and now they're all personal. so i don't know if he pivots the way ashley says he could. >> yeah, the notion that we're still talking about a potential pivot two weeks before the election, i mean, this has been what, four years now almost? >> i know. >> so, i don't think that's going to happen. >> he's not pivoting. >> and look, the strategy has shown, at least in the numbers, that this is not working. and i think what you're probably going to see over the next couple weeks is, yes, i mean, i think the debate, whether it

will be decisive or not, i think it's probably a bit of a long-shot, but i think the driving story over the next couple weeks is going to be, no matter what, these covid numbers, and also the fact that the president is going to be holding these rallies pretty much every night that are the only public gatherings of that size pretty much in the country going on every single day. i mean, we're going to watch football games today in which there are going to be empty stadiums all over the country, and the only place there's going to be packed crowds is going to be these rallies. so that's going to be reinforced every day. and look, the pivot isn't coming. i hate to break it to anyone who was hoping otherwise, but i think this same dynamic is going to prevail over the next couple weeks. >> well, look, we can have a little fun with the map. and pat and donna, i want you to help me out here. bill stepien, the president's campaign manager, apparently, while being privately pessimi pessimist pessimistic, has outlined what he believes is the scenario for victory for donald trump. and apparently, in staff meetings, he says the easy part is winning ohio, florida,

georgia, and maine's second congressional district. then they need the following scenarios to kick in. scenario one would be winning arizona, north carolina, pennsylvania. scenario two would be winning arizona, north carolina, michigan. and scenario three would be north carolina, michigan, nevada. so, pat mccrory, there is one state that is in all three of their scenarios, and that is the state of north carolina. where is the president? how hard do you think this will be for the president to carry the state of north carolina this time? >> i predict he will carry the state of north carolina. it will be very, very close. but the dilemma he has is the democrats have so much money on the ground, both in north and south carolina. let me put it this way. on my radio show, i have more democratic ads than republican ads. that means the democrats have a lot of money. but there's one word that the republicans are repeating over and over again, and that's amy barrett. she, the supreme court confirmation hearings, we think, have brought some momentum to

the trump campaign, and the democrats aren't bringing her name up at all on the campaign trail. >> donna edwards, there's one state that is not included in any of these scenarios, and it happens to be a state the president campaigned in yesterday, and that is wisconsin. it's just interesting to see how pessimistic republicans are about wisconsin, at least the president's campaign manager. are democrats that confident on wisconsin? >> well, it's not so much, chuck, i think being confident as, you know, doing the work on the ground. i mean, when you look at the number of voters who have already voted early, wisconsinites are becoming accustomed to that, the number of first-time voters showing up the at the polls, i think that's been a good sign for democrats. and i was struck yesterday that the president was campaigning in janesville, which is a solidly republican area. it used to be represented, i think, by paul ryan.

and i just don't see that as getting in the new voters from madison and the milwaukee suburbs that the president is going to need to win a state like wisconsin. >> pat mccrory -- >> one other thing. >> go ahead. >> you heard on my show that democrats are doing an incredible, unique political strategy. they're trying to endorse the libertarian candidate to take away votes from republicans. so, the democratic senator candidate in south carolina is running ads, basically promoting the libertarian candidate against lindsey graham. very unique strategy. >> well, when you have that much money, like jaime harrison has, you can. ashley parker, i'm not going to play it now again. we heard the ben sasse comments. is ben sasse the senate republican canary in the coal mine in that he speaks for a lot more that don't speak? >> yes and no. i mean, keep in mind that he is speaking after he won his

primary, after his victory seems fairly given, so he's not a profile in courage. what he is is, perhaps, a glimpse of how, if trump does lose, some members, but not all members, would try to sort of position a republican party in a post-trump era. but the thing you have to keep in mind is the president is an outgrowth of a populism that is still very real in the republican base. and the idea that even if he loses, he just disappears, he stops tweeting, he potentially stops holding rallies, is not going to happen. so, he may have a grip on the party well after, you know, 2020. but you will see some more republicans feeling emboldened to state what they have been stating privately, just about since the president took office. >> and of course, four years ago, in this very month, we had the stories of senate republicans looking to put their distance between themselves and nominee donald trump. so, who knows?

anyway. let me pause the conversation there. the lead looks like hillary clinton's over trump at this time. are you encouraged? why 2020 is not 2016. me are you encouraged why 2020 is not 2016 about treatment options is key. today, we are redefining how we do things. we find new ways of speaking, so you're never out of touch. it's seeing someone's face that comforts us, no matter where. when those around us know us, they can show us just how much they care. the first steps of checking in, the smallest moments can end up being everything. there's resources that can inform us, and that spark can make a difference. when we use it to improve things, then that change can last within us. when we understand what's possible, we won't settle for less. the best thing we can be is striving to be at our best.

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♪ welcome back. "data download" time. nervous democrats and skeptical republicans are warning the same thing with two weeks left in this race -- remember where the polls put hillary clinton in mid-october. their point? the race is far from over and national polls are not always a sign of the electoral college

outcome. so, how safe is joe biden's current double-digit lead? at this point in mid-october, almost to the day, hillary clinton was up ten points over then-candidate donald trump among registered voters in the nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. in our latest, out this week, biden is up 11. but joe biden is not hillary clinton. and incumbent president trump isn't outsider candidate donald trump. for one, at this point in '16, 65% of registered voters said the country was headed in the wrong direction, not great for a party's hope of staying in power. today, that number under a republican president trump isn't great, either, 62%. another thing -- voters like biden more than they liked clinton. in our positive/negative feeling thermometer that we use, she was ten points under water in mid-october, 2016. in comparison? biden is in positive territory, actually up a point. but perhaps most important are the types of voters clinton failed to win over who are

currently polling more favorably for biden. at this point, candidate trump was polling ahead with independents and seniors and he led white voters by nine points. now, biden has wide margins with those first two camps and he's narrowed president trump's hold on white voters to only four points. these gains are especially important this cycle. white voters, and especially older white voters, could help biden flip states like wisconsin, michigan, and florida, the states that narrowly put president trump over the top last cycle. so, even if 2020 may look and feel a bit like 2016, with a surprise ending possible, these numbers suggest there are substantial differences this year. and remember, president trump and joe biden will face off in their second and final debate this thursday, moderated by our own kristen welker. please join my colleagues and myself for full coverage that begins at 8:30 eastern time. when we come back, even

though it is not 2016, as we just heard, president trump sure is campaigning as if it is. is that a good idea? as if it is is that a good idea?

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learn more at factsonhand.com today. welcome back. the panel is back here. mark leibovich, we've been talking about all the ways that maybe this isn't like 2020 -- 2016 -- all the ways it appears the president is behind, but there is one counterfactual here that i think benefits the president and raises some questions about the biden strategy, and that is these

voter registration numbers that we've seen come out of, in particular, pennsylvania, florida, north carolina. tom edsall wrote about this, noting that this has been quite a -- one of these counterfact yulz that biden's not out of the woods. four of the six states trump won by fewer votes, voters to register by party, arizona, florida, north carolina and pennsylvania, in recent months, there have been substantially more republicans added to the rolls than democrats, in each except for pennsylvania. if we're missing new registrants, that's how those polls could suddenly tighten. >> that is an important counterfactual, and i think there is a misperception that new voters and people lined up, that just equates to democratic enthusiasm. i think that, you know, as tom edsall's column pointed out, that's wrong. i think, though, the counter-counterfactual to that is when you look at the fact that in 2016, there were third-party candidates on the ballot who are a lot stronger,

you know -- gary johnson, jill stein. they're not on the ballot this time. it's a much smaller spread, which could be very decisive, as it was in places like florida, wisconsin, maybe north carolina this time around. >> donna edwards, when i hear from democratic strategists about what keeps them up at night, it is this issue on what they said was a weak voter registration campaign in all of 2020, understandable reasons with this pandemic, but that this is -- if there is something that they're going to -- that's keeping them up at night, it is this. >> yeah, i think that is true. i think it's one of the reasons, though, that you see the biden campaign also focused on low-propensity voters, a lot of voters who actually stayed home in 2016 and tried to turn them out in 2020 as a way to balance this. i think it's why you see, you know, the deployment, both of kamala harris and joe biden in some of these areas, to try to lift that up. and look, if a third of the ballots have been -- votes have been cast by the time you get to

election day, that means two-thirds still have to be turned out and energized. and i think that's why the biden campaign is very focused on saying, hey, it's not over. and just because we do early voting doesn't mean that we don't have to continue to the end. and so, that's what i see on the democratic side, as a way to try to balance what has happened on the republican side in terms of registration. >> pat mccrory, what is the president's message? not what should it be in these closing two weeks. i mean, here he spent the last two days, he spent part of his week attacking fellow republican senators. obviously, he didn't like what ben sasse said. he went after susan collins. not worth the work because he's upset that she's not going to vote for judge barrett before election day. he called him senator little ben sasse perhaps the republicans should find a new and more viable candidate. what the president has been focused on this week, obviously,

probably isn't what you would want him focused on, but is that the president's problem, we don't know what his re-election message really is? >> well, i think that is an issue. he has not controlled the message. and part of that is because of the virus. but there have been september and october surprises also. you had the woodward book, which comes out every election time. you had the melania trump tapes, which was incredible how someone tape-recorded the first lady. and so, he's been on his heels on this and many other issues. but now, joe biden, whether you like it or not, is going to have to deal with the hunter biden october surprise between now and election day. and so, i think that's going to be a major issue, in addition to the virus. >> ashley parker, the fact that the trump campaign wants and hopes that this questionable hack -- and we don't know -- there's a lot of questions surrounding this story. is this their last -- this is their last card they're playing? this is all they've got left? >> yeah, potentially.

as you said, it's a rerun in many ways of 2016, but the landscape is different. the hunter biden stuff, some of it's not verified. some of it may seem unsavory for hunter, but it doesn't really attach to his father. and some of the stuff that has come out in the hack is actually makes joe biden seem like what voters already believe, a decent guy, and with his son, hunter, who has struggled with drug addiction, you have joe biden saying "good morning my beautiful son." that's not exactly opposition research, especially for americans who have their own family members struggling with addiction. >> that's for sure. very quickly, donna edwards, right at the end of the judge barrett hearings, dianne feinstein praised lindsey graham for how he ran the hearing, gave him a hug, and let's just say that that did not sit well with the base of the party. demand justice, a fairly new group on the left, promoting judicial -- promoting sort of more campaigns in these judicial fights -- "it's time for senator

feinstein to step down from her leadership position." how bad is this for senator feinstein? >> you know, frankly, i don't know that it's bad for senator feinstein. i think it really -- i mean, democrats need to be focused on the problems with amy coney barrett's nomination, the timing, the fact of where she is and can't even endorse the idea that contraceptives are, you know, within the right to privacy. and what she might do in terms of this election. i think that's a problem. and you know, i think from the biden perspective, you know, really focusing on the destruction of the aca is the focal point. and so, biden can't get away from the economy to covid to how you recover. >> i'm going to have to end the conversation there. thank you all. but before we go, i want to note that this year's "meet the press" film festival at afi fest is actually going on right now

through thursday. seven programs this time around, all virtual, of course. each with a q&a hosted by one of your favorite nbc folks. and they're available at best.afi.com. that's all for today. see you next week. if it's sunday, it's "meet the press." u next week. if it's sunday, it's "meet the press. but at the same time, he hasn't worn masks consistently -- >> yeah, but -- >> he's pushed back against things you've said. >> i think that's less an anti-science than it's more a statement. >> what kind of a statement? >> you know, a statement of strength, like we're strong, we don't need a mask, that kind of thing. >> is that -- >> he sometimes equates wearing a mask with weakness. >> does that make sense to you? >> no, it doesn't. of course not. >> do you have a feeling that there is sometimes an all-out war against science? >> oh, yeah. i mean, particularly over the last few years. >> he wants us to lockdown. he'll listen to the scientists. if i listened totally to