a very good day to all of you from msnbc world headquarters in new york. it's high noon in the east, 9:00 a.m. out west. welcome to "weekends with alex wi witt." we're down to single digits. just nine days to go until the election. and as the president and joe biden are storming the trail making their final pitch to voters, candidates are making their final pitch to voters on the sunday shows. >> there's only one person in this country who joe biden thinks should lose his job and it's donald trump. >> i think the president's messages should be and continues to be the promises he's made and the promises he's kept. >> reporter: and in the veepstakes, senator kamala harris is in detroit, michigan, today as vice president mike pence will be heading to north carolina later, though, even as four of his aides have tested positive for coronavirus. we're going to have more on that

in just a moment. first, new polling shows president trump and joe biden's favorability ratings are relatively unchanged from the summer, as more than half of americans view the president unfavorably, while biden's favorability is split pretty evenly. a new poll shows a razor-thin margin between the two candidates in some critical southern battleground states. in florida, biden leads trump 50-48%. checking out north carolina, biden leads by four points, 51-47. and the race is essentially tied there in georgia, 49 to 49%. as for joe biden, he'll be campaigning in georgia this week. it is the first time he's traveling to that state as the democratic nominee for president. let's go to my colleague, nbc's ali vitali who's following the biden campaign from wilmington, delaware. ali, a good sunday to you with nine days to go, right? let's talk about georgia, why georgia and why now? >> reporter: yeah, we've made it into single digits, alex.

nine days to go. and the former vice president announcing last night that he'll be heading to georgia, and this is a state that democrats have really been salivating over, ever since we saw that really tight 2018 governor's race between stacey abrams and brian kemp. since then, democrats have been wondering what that state could look like in a presidential year, if they were to give an investment in grassroots and now, clearly, former vice president joe biden taking his message there in the waning days of this race. georgia, you just showed the polls, a very close state. and frankly, a state that hasn't gone blue since 1992. clearly, if you talk to the biden campaign and other democrats, this is a state where they think that they can make inroads in, but i will say, this is also a trip that's met with some skepticism. typically in these last few days, these are the states that you're looking at, where the campaign needs to shore up their voters, and there have been some questions as people look at this trip announcement and wonder if it looks a little bit like hillary clinton's decision to campaign in places like arizona towards the end of the 2016 election, as opposed to spending

times in states that ultimately would matter more, like wisconsin. the campaign, though, defending that, saying that this is going to be a speech that's a significant closing puitch. listen to what one of their top aides said this morning on "meet the press". >> he's going to actually be making a significant message speech there. he's going to be delivering a closing argument set of remarks at warm springs, georgia, which obviously has historical significance in this country. and he's going to be making the case that, you know, we can unify this country, that we can come together to overcome these crisis, that there's no challenge too great for americans to meet. but the first thing they have to do in order to do that is vote. >> reporter: so kate, what i hear there from kate bedingfield is that this is going to be is a speech that plays upon presidents of the past, similar to how we heard joe biden in gettysburg, pennsylvania, a few weeks ago, invoking lincoln, talking about the need to heal this country. we may hear something similar from him in warm springs,

georgia, a play as kate bedingfield mentioned, with historical significance because of fdr, one of the underpinnings of biden's message so far has been the need to heal and unify this country. of course, warm springs was a healing place for fdr. i imagine that's going to be a similar message to what we hear from biden when he heads there on tuesday. >> that makes a lot of sense if you think about it. okay, it's a good spot for biden to be. thank you so much, ali vitali. let's go now to nbc's monica in new hampshire. we're learning some more top aides close to vice president mike pence have now tested positive. what can you tell us about that? >> reporter: yeah, very significant developments overnight, alex, when weapon learned that two of the vice presidents' closest political advisers had tested positive for coronavirus in recent days. marty obst, somebody who's not a government employee, but a senior adviser to the vice president, who travels with him on air force ii quite frequently tested positive on wednesday. and then the vice president's

chief of staff, marc short, we are learning, tested positive on saturday. he's somebody who had been on the trail with the vice president all week long, as somebody who rarely wears a face kor i covering and is in quite close proximity to the vice president. so close that the cdc guidelines would determine that mike pence is a close contact of his, but under those same guidelines, the vice president's office is arguing that because the vice president is an essential employee, he's going to keep his packed campaigning and rally schedule, and will be traveling later today to north carolina. now, alex, we should point out that we've also learned two additional aides in the vice president's staff have tested positive, bringing that total to four. and there may be more cases, as we've seen with these outbreaks in the white house. it's obviously not limited when you have a number like this, when you think about all of the people they've interacted with. we should point out that today

vice president mackenzie phillips and karen pence have both tested negative. he continues to keep this pace, potentially exposing others. we also don't know how many of the other staffers may have to quarantine, but we understand that those who were in close proximity to the chief of staff won't be on that trip to north carolina today. but we're here in manchester, new hampshire, where the president will be landing in the next hour or two and his chief of staff, mark meadows, was defending the decision to have the vice president on the trail in the coming days in the closing stretch. take a listen to what he said this morning in an interview. >> essential personnel, whether it's the vice president of the united states, or anyone else -- >> but he's not following cdc guidelines. >> jake, cdc guidelines does say essential personnel. >> yes, it says, if they wear a mask. >> and i spoke to the vice president last night at midnight. and i can tell you what he's doing is wearing a mask, social distancing, and when he goes up to speak, he will take the mask

off, put it back on. >> reporter: so we will be seeing the vice president wearing a face covering today. and in the next couple of days, it seems, according to the trump chief of staff, mark meadows. but the president himself does not normally wear a mask and he's not expected to at the event behind me where there will be thousands of his supporters packed closely on a tarmac, also not all of them wearing masks. some are, but as you know, alex, at these rallies, they hand them out but they are not required by the campaign. after the president delivers a speech here, he'll be heading to maine to also do a campaign event ahead of a very busy next couple of days. multiple stops in pennsylvania tomorrow, alex. >> i got to tell you, as i was watching the video with that -- that we played next to you, monica, of mike pence jogging across the tarmac as he got off of air force 2, i was kind of reminded, like he's taking a cue from joe biden, who consistently, you know, runs up the stairs through this campaign

or jogs on to, you know, a stage and that was a pretty long run for mike pence there. maybe he was trying to project a picture of vitality, despite these reports of coronavirus hitting his top advisers like that. just an observation, for what that's worth, monica alba. thank you so much for everything there from where you are there in new hampshire. we'll see you again. with me now, peter baker, chief white house correspondent for "the new york times" and msnbc political analyst. also, shauna thomas, nbc news contributor. great to see you both, let's dig into the numbers here as we start with the new polls. you have vice president -- former vice president joe biden and the president as they enter this final stretch of the campaign. check out the favorability ratings. pretty much unchanged since at least the summer. biden has 44. 43% unfavorable, trump has 35% favorable. 57% unfavorable. so peter, nine days to go until the election. americans' attitudes towards the

candidates don't seem to have changed much. what does that tell you? >> yeah, i think that's exactly right, alex. that's the story of this presidential race in some ways. that's the story of this presidency in some ways. the numbers have remained remarkably static in the aggregate. you know, really, the president since the day he took office, actually, from the day he was first elected in 2016, has had either a favorability or an approval rating or now a poll number in the low to mid-40s, pretty consistently for four years. and the number between him and biden has been roughly nine or ten points. really, since the summer of 2019. a little up, a little down, here or there. the truth is, the nightmares have been remarkably static. people made up their minds about donald trump a long time ago. they either love him or hate him or whatever, but they have made up their minds about him, and there's very little that it seems like he can do in nine days to change that. the question of whether he can get people to love him in greater numbers than the people who don't love him.

and that's looking harder and harder as the time grows short. >> so it seems like the debates department do much, peter. it seems like each candidate just tapping into their base. >> i think that's right, exactly. the candidates spoke to the people who already believe with them and agree with them and reinforce their views for the most part. really, the base were the last chance that president trump had on a big scale, talked to a lot of americans, all at once, and possibly changed the dynamics. it doesn't look like those dynamics changed. you know, there's nothing coming in the next nine days where you can see an obvious opportunity for him to suddenly rewrite that narrative. he's playing out the script that he's got, trying to hammer home his points as best he can in these last nine days and whip up enthusiasm among his supporters. but the overall dynamics of this race feel very, very steady at this point. >> shauna, looking at around this time back in 2016, trump's favorability was at 38% to 60% unfavorable there. clinton's at 42% to 56%

unfavorable. so biden is seen, you know, significantly more favorably, right? because the numbers aren't quite so large for his variables there. what's the takeaway from this? >> i mean, the takeaway is that the difference between 2016 and 2020 is now we have four years of a president trump record. the favorabilities at that point really have to do with how did people see him? how did people see how he's saying what he would do for the country. now we have four years of what he's done for the country. so this is the difference between 2016 and 2020 is an incumbent president means this become that is referendum on him, mostly. and for joe biden, he just has to make sure he doesn't mess up, to a certain extent, and turn some attention back to himself. for joe biden, especially because of covid-19 and how hard it has hit this country, it's sort of easy to sort of keep the attention on president trump. and even he -- he doesn't really want to talk about covid-19, but

that is the elephant in the room. you know, and peter said one thing, because the debates are over and the debates were sort of the last chance the president kind of had to make a big splash and bring a lot more people who had that favorable view of him over to his side and make sure they vote, but his covid-19 diagnosis was also a surprise, but also one of those moments that had he kind of taken that diagnosis and said, okay, i get it, this is really serious, i am in control of this country, i understand the pain that people have gone through, who have been sick. i can try to emphasize with the pain that people have gone through, who have lost family members. there was a big natural moment for him to kind of rise to the occasion. and i think there are a lot of people who may have been on the fence, but also joe biden supporter who is saw his behavior after that and it entices joe biden's supporters to go out and vote and for

people on the fence to go out and see what is the real story here when it comes to covid-19 and president. >> let me be cynical and push this back to you with regard to covid and the fact that the president has come back on the campaign trail. he appears quite vigorous whoen doing so. does that only embolden the people who say, oh, we are making way too much out of this covid thing, the way the trump administration has indicated? >> i think it emboldens some people and i think some of those people are his supporters. i do think his supporters like seeing him vigorous, like seeing him going out on the campaign trail and doing what he, in some ways, depending on how you look at it, talk to a big crowd and get them riled up. it makes them want to go vote for him. but as you look at those favorable/unfavorable numbers and the polling numbers which are kind of in line with each other, there aren't necessarily number people in that favorable number for the president to make

up for what we know joe biden appears to have in the polling. so, it is what he has to do. he has to get all of those people who clearly like him to show up and vote. but has he gotten anyone on the margins at this point with his behavior when it comes to covid, with everything that's gone on over the last four years to actually decide to pull the lever for him? that's unclear and i think it's unclear to them, too, or he wouldn't be going to the one district in maine that he won to try to shore up one electoral vote, as well as new hampshire, which he did barely lose. >> so peter, bottom line, does this come down to turnout? is that what it's about right now more than anything? >> well, look, it always does, of course. but this is such a different election in that regard. something like 50 million people have already voted. turnout is a whole different question this time around. 50 million people would be close to a third of what we expect to be the electorate in the end. and that means, for instance, in the last nine days, that's one third of the electorate that neither one of the candidates

can get to, because they've already cast their ballots. how you affect turnout, how you drive turnout in an election year, which people are afraid of the pandemic and in which people are looking for alternate ways to cast their ballot is really interesting question. it's not all about getting people to the polls on one day. it's about a whole -- that process. it's the process of weeks, in fact. right now, obviously, democrats seem to have some sense of energy and momentum on their side. but that doesn't necessarily mean they're going to get more people to the polls in the key states. and that's to shauna's point, trump is strategicingally looki at the places he needs. it's going to be like pulling an inside straight. they did it four years ago and they're bank he can do it again, but that's a very iffy proposition. >> i'm banking on having the both of you again on the show, that's for sure. thank you so much. there is one county in florida that could tell us early on election night if president trump will be in trouble. that's straight ahead for you.

and then in our next hour, the nbc news road worries special, our intrepid campaign correspondents from across the nation report on the issues that could decide the difference in the battle for the white house. n the battle for the white house her cape. but when we realized she was battling sensitive skin, we switched to new tide plus downy free. it's gentle on her skin, and dermatologist recommended. new tide pods plus downy free. safe for sensitive skin with eczema and psoriasis. [ engine rumbling ] ♪ [ beeping ] [ engine revs ] ♪ uh, you know there's a 30-minute limit, right? tell that to the rain. [ beeping ] for those who were born to ride, there's progressive. fine jewelry for occasions.

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welcome back, everyone. well, my colleague, ali velshi traveled to north carolina this weekend on his "across america" tour. and now with just nine days until election, the tar heel state is a critical battleground and a must-win. ali velshi spoke with voters about what drove them to the polls and as you can imagine, the pandemic was top of mind. >> there needs to be a national leader who recognizes seriously that this is, this is happening. that this is not a joke. it's not going to go away. we don't need to ignore it. we don't need to go into the white house or however and say, well, i'm fine. everybody else is fine.

that is not true, okay? it's -- and it's not realistic. and there's so many people who have lost relative and friends and who know and understand what this is. it is, it's not empathetic. and actually, it's cruel in many ways. so that would need to stop. and also, i think that we know that closing down parts of the economy have to happen. >> join "velshi across america." his next destination, pennsylvania, next sunday from 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. eastern, only here on msnbc. cautiously optimistic, what is making some top democrats feeling more confident about a biden win as the countdown to the election drops now into the single digits. down to the election drops now into the single digits. when heartburn hits fight back fast... ...with tums chewy bites... beat heartburn fast tums chewy bites

25 past the hour. we're follow this breaking news from capitol hill, where the senate is about to hold a procedural vote. that's going to pave the way for

it votes on whether to confirm judge amy coney barrett to the supreme court. that final vote is expected tomorrow and barrett's confirmation is pretty much all but guaranteed, especially after alaska's republican senate lisa murkowski, who had previously said she opposed voting on a nominee before the election, switched and announced she'd vote to confirm barrett. with me now is our own garrett haake who covers capitol hill and has covered barrett's confirmation hearing earlier this month for us. garrett, big welcome to you. so what happened here? what can you tell us about lisa murkowski's reversal and how surprising is this? >> reporter: well, murkowski has said all along she didn't think this process was appropriate. she was against the way the merrick kbarlagarland non-heari went down in 2016, and she felt that fair was fair not confirming a judge this close to the election. that said, she did ultimately pay attention to the hearings, as they went forward, despite her objections. she's not on the judiciary committee, so her role in the

early part of this process was pretty small and she had her own private meeting with judge barrett. afterwards, she came out and announced her totally qualified and essentially said in her floor speech yesterday announcing this move that while she doesn't agree with this process, since we're here anyway, she's going to go ahead and vote in favor of judge barrett's confirmation. she'll still vote against this last procedural step here today, but that's some sort of symbolic hedging, who's not going to make the democratic and independent voters who in some cases have come to like murkowski, this is going to upset a lot of those folks on whom she depends in a state that is a very funky political mix of independents, democrats, republicans, and third and even fourth parties, oftentimes on the ballot there. >> can i just say, solomonic, kudos to you. that was a great word to get in. what about susan collins.

she has said she would oppose a vote. any chance she's thinking of voting to confirm barrett as well? >> i don't think so. collins is in an almost impossible spot here. she's in the race of her life up in maine. she's probably the one republican senator who's up for re-election this cycle who hasn't been helped by this confirmation battle. a lot of these other republicans like thom tillis and joni ernst who are up in tough re-election races are on the judiciary committee and their problem is namely that they are running behind donald trump in their states. conservatives do not love them, as much as they love donald trump. susan collins' brand is very different. she needs donald trump's supporters to come out and vote for her, but she also needs democrats and independents who think of her as the good old-fashioned local girl from caribou, maine, who has been there forever. she needs those voters, too. and so this whole fight has put her in an almost possible imposition. she said from the get-go, she didn't think this should move forward in this way.

she's pretty well locked in on this. she may be in trouble regardless, but a flip now basically causes one-half of that coalition if it still exists to completely abandon her most like. she's pretty well stuck. >> garrett haake, thank you very much from capitol hill. we'll see you again, my friend. joining me right now, delaware senator chris coons, a democratic member of the judiciary committee. senator, awfully glad to see you on this really important sunday. first we, is there anything left for the democrats to do as they prepare to head into this session or will judge barrett be confirmed as justice barrett? >> alex, we continue to reach out to the american people and urge them to communicate to republican senators just how inappropriate it is to be racing through this rushed process to confirm a partisan nominee. but beyond that, beyond public pressure, beyond the impact on republican senators who are facing re-election, there is little else we can do at this point. we've used a series of

procedural maneuvers to try to slow or deflect this and we've made direct appeals to our republican colleagues. but as you were just covering, even those who were previously expressing opposition to this process are signaling they may well ultimately vote to confirm her. alex, what i'm really concerned about is that i'm ceding judge barrett will open a new chapter in conservative judicial activism that may well strip away long-settled rights that americans have come to rely on in how they order their private affairs in access to quality health care and protection from discrimination by insurance companies. and as i detailed in the confirmation hearings, there's more than 120 settled cases in the supreme court that were decided by a 5-4 margin, where if justice ginsburg were replaced to a justice to the right of justice scalia, as i believe judge barrett to be, they would overturn an incredible array of issues,

whether it's labor rights, environmental protections, native american rights, or the privacy and reproductive rights issues that have really been at the forefront of this confirmation battle so far. >> senator, as i listen to you tick off one significant issue after the next, when you look at the calendar and see that there, by the time she gets confirmed, were it to happen tomorrow, that it's so close to election day, how frustrated are you that if only it had been maybe another week, ten days, depending on the outcome of the election, things could have been dramatically different, potentially for decades to come. i mean, this has got to be super frustrating for democrats. >> yes. it is deeply frustrated and upsetting. and i think this will have consequences for the rest of our lives. and you know, look, i just -- i admire just how hard justice

ginsburg fought to hang on. if you think about it, given her diagnosis, given her health, for her to have stayed on the court and engaged in debate and engaged in decision when the human thing to do would have been to take what last precious weeks she had and spend them with her family, she was a titan. she was someone with a spine of steel. and i admire and am grateful for the years and years that she spent fighting for private privacy and justice, gender equality, and inclusion. and i shudder to think about the potential consequences of this dramatic rightward shift on the court. >> amen to that. >> i will tell you also, my counsel just brought to my attention that there is a pennsylvania election-related case that was decided 4-4 by the supreme court, where the pennsylvania republican party has resubmitted it in a slightly different form, hoping that a newly seated justice barrett will give the 5-4 decision that

would skew it in favor of the republicans. just another reminder of how close this is to the election and why it's inappropriate. i pressed judge barrett in her hearings on whether she would recuse hearse, given the ways that president trump has publicly called for her rushed seating on the court in order to help him in the election context. she demured and said she would consider that if it arose. it will now clearly arise. >> very important reminder and perspective you offer there, sir. so on thursday, you and your democratic colleagues on judiciary, you boycotted the vote to send judge barrett's nomination to the full senate. joining minority leader schumer outside the capitol this morning, you were explaining your decision. but i want to play part of joe biden's message to voters, what it's been throughout this weekend with now just nine days to go. here's part of that, senator. >> let's show them who we are. we choose hope over fear.

we choose unity over division. science over fiction. truth over lies. and yes, honor and integrity over lying. >> do you worry that images of democrats boy kogt works against biden's message of unity, or do you have confidence that americans will listen to the specifics of what joe biden was talking about there and not equate the two? >> i think americans understand the distinction of our refusing to be part of this rushed and partisan process in the last ten days when most americans would rather have us hammering out a bipartisan covid relief package. and the broader message that joe biden is delivering, that hep listens to science and public health experts and that he will do his best to bring our country back together if entrusted with the presidency.

in the last day and a half, news has come out that several folks in the senior team of vice president mike pence have been infected by the pandemic, yet the vice president will continue -- vice president pence will continue with public campaign rallies. president trump and vice president pence have continued with reckless rallies that don't follow distancing and public health directions, even as former vice president biden and senator harris have campaigned in a safe and balanced and responsible way. i think that sends a stronger message, frankly, than almost anything we're doing here in the senate. >> should biden biden be campaigning even more with now just nine days to go? he is technically off the trail today, was in pennsylvania twice yesterday, two different rallies there. kamala harris is all through michigan today, with a few stops, i think four in total. that said, do you wish he were out on the campaign trail more to sort of counterbalance what president trump is doing? >> alex, i'll note, you said he is technically off the trail, because he's working hard all day, connecting with voters where they are virtually.

i did a whole series of events over the last two days, most of them were virtual, in very few cases, they were in person. it is difficult to safely campaign in person, and i respect deeply that joe and kamala have traveled the country, have made in-person visits to campaign rallies, but the one you just showed was a drive-in rally where nobody was physically close, where they found a way to have joe in-person campaigning in a physically distanced, safe, and responsible way. he is working tirelessly in these last nine days, a lot of that is with virtual outreach and engagement. some of it is in person, but in every case, safely, following, not breaking the guidance of public health officials in the states where he and clkamala ar campaigning. >> and i'm going to just offer, having covered these drive-in rallies, the decibel level is

just as loud if not louder than the hundreds of thousands clapping. it's a lot of fun. it's different. senator chris coons, thank you very much for your time. coming up next, president trump's rosy outlook about the election. why is he so optimistic when the polls paint a different picture? oh, guess what, here's a reminder. i'm being reminded to tell you about this. how you vote is very important. our interactive state-by-state plan your vote guide has anything you need to know about casting a ballot in the 2020 election. you can see where your state stands on the voting rules, read up on the deadlines and restrictions and more. visit nbcnews.com/planyourvote to learn more. i'm glad we got that in there too. i'm glad we got that in there too. instantly clear every day congestion

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we expect the president to land in new hampshire minutes from now and it all comes as polls show the president trailing nationally. and in most of the battleground states which will decide two wins nine days from now. despite what our polling shows, the president says polls show him as the front-runner. >> but i think we're doing very well. the numbers are coming in unbelievably well. i don't believe the media is talking about them. i'm not sure the media knows exactly what's happening yet. but in florida, we're doing very well. north carolina, doing very well. iowa, doing very well. >> for more on all of this, i'm joined by don callaway,

democratic strategist and founder of the voter protection fund, and dan wasserman, head of the cook political reporter and msnbc contributor. dave, i'll go to you first. the president suggested last night in ohio that he's doing well in the polls. so let's look at those polls where joe biden is up four, that's in florida, a recent cnn poll. up in north carolina, according to real clear politics and their average of polls in the state, biden up in iowa in a recent "new york times" poll. trump is up by less than a point in a real clear politics average of ohio polls. what polls is the president referring to? or are he referring to? >> alex, we're all going to go insane if we interpret every single poll as movement, but i will provide this advice. look, take the long view, take the average of the past couple of weeks and it presents a pretty clear picture. first of all, joe biden's lead is not only larger than hillary clinton's was at this point, but it's also more stable and there

are fewer undecided voters than there were at this point in 2016. hillary's final lead was 46 to 43%. right now, biden is up 51-42, so there are only about half as many that are unallocated, which reduces the possibility for volatility. and the district-level polls pointed towards flashing red warning signs for hillary clinton in districts with large populations of working class white voters. a lot of that polling wasn't being made public, but we were seeing it. this time around, we're seeing district-level polls showing flashing red warning signs for the president in essentially suburban districts with high numbers of college graduates, including in key battleground states. >> dave, do you think the president has some internal polling or something that leads him to believe what he's saying? >> no! >> no? >> no! look, he's got to put out a happy front for his supporters.

the best indicator we have is that the republican polls at the district level, the polls that they're taking privately to make resource allocation decisions are showing the same thing we're seeing nationally. trump is underperforming his numbers across the board by eight to ten points, except maybe in several heavily hispanic districts where he's doing close or marginally better. >> okay. drilling down to the way to get to 270, don, a week before the election, the president's campaigning in new hampshire, four electoral votes there. what does that tell you about the state of the race? >> it's almost as if those races when they tell the candidates to go to belize and sit on an island for several months. i think that the president is wildly unpopular in places like chicago, michigan, ohio, that will ultimately be the bloodline that determines the path to 270. so he can go to these places

where there are a few less electoral votes. you would rather have him there than further spreading covid with these super spreader events and saying something really, really stupid. another thing i would suggest, i completely agree with everything dave has said. he's completely spot-on. another thing i would suggest, alex, a substantial amount of people, so many more than in an election cycle before have voted early. a lot of these show that the president is substantially behind. and he knows that and senate republicans know that, which is why you're seeing ben sasse and john cornyn jump ship. not only do they know that, but a lot of the vote is already baked in because of unprecedented early steep numbers. this president is in serious trouble and he's well aware of it. >> i want to drill down to the early voting with you. among the early voters, democrats have a nine-point advantage there. but are you at all concerned, that democrats, be it because of concern of covid or concern of access or voter intimidation, whatever, they want to get their vote on record, and that

election day, republicans, as traditionally is the case, will come out in droves and surpass the democratic vote? >> you know, i'm really not concerned about that. i do think that among democratic cyc circles, the broadly spread talking point across jurisdictions is to make sure you get your vote in early. so because of the disruptions that we can expect on election day, anything from lines to power outages at polling places to stand back and stand by from the proud boys. so given that we can anticipate these interruptions, i think you're going to have, and you're already seeing a substantial amount of people participating earlier in the process, such that republican participation on election day will not be able to usurp it. voting early is the new normal and i hope that that's something that persists into future cycles. >> dave, tell me about the florida county that you researched right about, that is a prognosticator for the election. talk about what you know there and what you expect. >> this is my hot tip for

election night. just after 7:00 p.m., we're going to start getting a lot of early vote in from florida. and look, the early vote turnout data in and of itself right now doesn't tell us much mabt the outcome. but in sumter county, florida, which is the villages, has a median age of 68.9 years old, we are expecting that over 80% of the vote will be reported rather quickly on election night, because over 80 percent of the vote will be cast in advance of election night. and they dump that batch all at once. if donald trump is below 62% of the first batch of votes that is over 75,000 cast in sumter county, that's going to be a terrible sign for him, because he needs to ultimately be winning that county 2-1, to have any chance of winning florida. and anything less would indicate a cat atropastrophic loss of su among seniors.

>> what do you get as the early voting there? >> we have 61,000 votes cast there out of 105,000 registered voters. so we're going to have close to 80% if not more of the vote cast and counted before the polls close -- well, before election day, and ready to report when the polls close at 7:00. so that's going to be an important early indicator for those of us who are watching the results at the decision desk of what's going to happen. >> hey, dave, am i right in recalling the villages as being that place where i think it was fourth of july weekend there was that golf cart parade by many republicans and that a lot of democrats were saying on the side, and it got ugly. let's just call it. it got pretty ugly there. is that a super-divided community? >> it was a gray golf cart revolt. and look, there are warring parades of golf carts, there are

warring flags and banners. it's gotten heated. and let's face it, it's probably because there's not that much else to do. but let's face it, we're looking at a very amped up electorate on both sides. president trump helicoptered in for a rally just this weekend. and so it's going to be massive enthusiasm. >> okay, guys. buckle up, both of you. don callaway, david wasserman, thank you so much. and tonight, join steve kornacki. he's going to break down the latest polling in previews. what to expect on election night. watch the steve kornacki election special tonight at 10:00 eastern on msnbc. meantime, unlikely allies. voters who usually support the republican say joe biden is their pick this year. the republican say joe biden is their pick this year and because it's a ninja foodi, it can do things no other oven can, like flip away. the ninja foodi air fry oven, the oven that crisps and flips away. vicks vapopatch. easy to wear with soothing vicks vapors for her,

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her strength respected. depend. the only thing stronger than us, is you. joe biden is being a diverse group of supporters that could help him seal the deal on november 3rd. a "time" article describes him as an unlikely alliance of angry

young voters, voters of color, terrified seniors and exhausted su buranites who make up the broadest base of support for a democratic presidential nominee since bill clinton. we also have the author of "the ones we were waiting for." terrific book. this is an interesting article. how did biden form this unusual group? >> he kind of kept his grip on the obama coalition, which was mostly young people voters of color. he stayed popular with the people who helped democrats in the midterms in 2018. that's women, suburban voters, college-educated voters, and just in the last year he's been able to expand that coalition to include seniors and people who have become economically vulnerable because of the virus. so he's sort of got this

three-tiered coalition that he's built that's one of the broadest. >> you also wrote that he's gaining support from a growing number of republicans and even some evangelicals. specifically he's pretty even now with the white catholic vote of donald trump, yeah? >> yeah. and that's one big part of the biden strategy. there are some groups that a democrat is never going to outright win in 2016 -- in 2020, specifically non-college white voters, rural voters, very unlikely that a democrat will win those groups, but the strategy for biden is just to lose them by less than clinton did in 2016 to try to cut into president trump's lead with some of these hard-core conservative voters who make up a big portion of the president's base. >> i'm curious how biden has done. let's pull up the "new york

times" poll which shows that biden is not only leading among seniors but the younger voters. how did he manage to get these two polar opposites to unite? >> this has almost never happened before, or at least hasn't happened in decades, to have the youngest voters and the oldest voters supporting the same candidate. i mean, the youth enthusiasm for biden is largely because trump is historically unpopular with young voters, and remember, this is also a generation that has been sort of radicalized by the events of not only the last four years but really the last ten years. so young voters are really fired up this time. and even though joe biden was not their pick in the primary, you know, the data suggests that they are overwhelmingly going to show up to vote trump out of office. for seniors, i think covid had a lot to do with the numbers that we're seeing here. i mean, seniors disapprove of

trump's handling of the covid pandemic by 15 points, and now biden is leading them -- is leading the seniors by, like, six points when trump won them handily in 2016. so i think that we've got kind of two different trends that, you know, ultimately are both pointing in the same direction. >> for the young vote that came out in remarkable support for obama in 2012, do you think a lot of what they're doing now is supporting barack obama's former veep, the person barack obama is out there supporting, does he have a lot of support with this group? >> i think it's more about getting trump out of office than it is any real allegiance to the obama administration. remember, young voters weren't for joe biden in the primary. young voters were overwhelmingly for bernie sanders and also for elizabeth warren.

i don't think it's out of love and allegiance to the biden -- to the obama administration, i think it's much more about just being utterly terrified of what another four years of a trump presidency will do to the country, but also to the climate. remember, young voters are much more concerned about climate change than older voters are, and i think that's a major factor in their decision. >> i would agree with you on that for sure. charlotte alter, good to see you. thanks so much. coming up next, the latest pressing issues with just nine days to go before america's final vote. it's our road warrior special. correspondents play across the country with the pulse of the people. se of the people whoo. i'm gonna grow big and strong. yes, you are. i'm gonna get this place all clean. i'll give you a hand. and i'm gonna put lisa on crutches! wait, what? said she's gonna need crutches. she fell pretty hard. you might want to clean that up, girl. excuse us.

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good day, everyone, from msnbc headquarters in new york. nine days before the presidential election, 81 days before inauguration day 2021, and this hour before we head into the final week when america decides the next president, we travel all over the country with you covering the candidates and the voters with many of our msnbc reporters out on the campaign trail from coast to coast, state to state and county to county. we'll be checking in this with them in just a moment, but first let's catch you up to date on today's fast-moving developments. a whole slew of polls out today. we'll take