if it's thursday, with five days to go, two candidates with two very different closing messages. but they're about to converge on florida, florida, flowed, with dueling rallies scheduled to start later this hour. plus, the u.s. breaks the record again for most confirmed cases in a single day as states grapple with new restrictions. dr. fauci sounds another alarm. and the fbi now warns hospitals of an imminent cyberattack. and in the ongoing battle

for ballots, the supreme kurkts lous absentee ballot extensions in pennsylvania and north carolina. republicans vow to keep fighting now that amy coney barrett is justice barrett on the court. welcome to thursday. it's "meet the press daily." i'm chuck todd. nearly 80 million ballots have all right been cast. think about that. there's already been 77 million vote s cast through at least ths morning. with election day fast approaching, both candidates are scheduled to hold dueling rallies in florida. we'll dour best to dip into these events as they get under way. florida the mega battleground state. could be the most important state on the map.

it could decide the presidential race or be the early canary in the coal mine for trump on election night. according to our new nbc news/marist poll of likely voters in florida, it's close. biden up four points, well within the 4.4% margin of error. just moments ago, another poll from monmouth university. it gave biden a five-point edge. they have a very small sample size. they don't do large sample sizes over there. still another poll confirming that which is that one is barely outside their poll's margin of error. the one thing that jumps out in our nbc news/marist poll is that trump's approval rate is the same. it will decide a lot more states than just florida if that holds. perhaps just as important as the poll numbers, the campaigns' closing messages. president trump's closing message seems to be more trump because his attacks in these closing days have been, like him, all over the place.

>> a safe vaccine is coming very quickly. you'll have it momentarily that eradicates the virus. and we're rounding the turn regardless. biden and the democrat socialists will delay the vaccine, prolong the pandemic, shutter your schools and shut down our country. he could not remember my name yesterday. this is what you are putting in office. i don't think he's going to make it. joe biden is a corrupt politician, and they refuse to talk about it. and now we hear about the laptop. the laptop from hell that he brought in to be fixed. biden and harris stand up and they stand with the rioters and the vandals. the biggest problem we have is if they cheat with the ballots. that's my biggest problem. and last night we did. we made history, and we confirmed amy coney barrett to the united states supreme court. >> if you're singing the song

ramblin' man in your head, you wouldn't be alone. some democrats are worried that biden may be a little too on message as he focuses on the threat of the virus. biden has been hunkered down in delaware a whole lot more than he's been on the trail. he's been on the trail outside his home state for just 28 of them. but his closing argument has been arguably a lot more clear and a lot more on sort of the country's message than the president's. >> over these past few months, there's been so much pain and so much suffering and so much loss in america. >> the bottom line is, donald trump is the worst possible president, the worst possible person to try to lead us through this pandemic. >> it seems like he just doesn't care much about it. and the longer he's in charge, the more reckless he gets. it's enough. i believe this election is about who we are as a nation. what we believe. and maybe, most importantly, who

we want to be. i know this country. i know our people. and i know we can unite and heal this nation. >> let's turn now to our nbc reporters following the campaigns. monica alba is in tampa ahead of president trump's rally. mike memoli is north of miami with joe biden and also our most knowledgeable florida man of them all, mark caputo. let me start -- let me start with mike memoli there in coconut creek. mike, joe biden coming to florida. this is considered a busy day for him on the trail. what is the goal, and who is the focus? >> well, chuck, as you well know, covering florida politics, you look at broward county, miami-dade county. first on election night if you are a democrat. you want to run up the numbers. they're trying to push early voting here, making sure that their democratic base is getting

out. we also heard this morning biden in a new ad targeting latino voters announce that he would, on his first day of office, sign an executive order, create a task force focused on the more than 500 families separated at the border. very clearly the need to get the latino vote where it needs to be at this point. so the turnout operation here in south florida. then he flies up to tampa where it's much more of a persuasion argument. that's the strategy in florida. turnout here. persuasion up there. but really, chuck, the biden message has been so consistent from day one. and so adaptable to every changing circumstance that it's really a measure of the campaign at this point that he can -- that the campaign thinks they can give that message from home in delaware where he's spent eight days since the convention in terms of public campaign events or here in florida. but the pace does pick up. two events in florida today. two states tomorrow, iowa, wisconsin, potentially one more being added. and then michigan where he does

his first public appearances with barack obama. obviously, a must-see moment for the campaign at that point. >> no doubt. >> florida is somewhere between a must-win and a wanna win where it's clearly a must-win for trump. and the fact they are very much competitive here. they like where the early vote numbers are for the most part. it shows they think they're in the driver's seat at this point. >> one of the things i like to do is look at the first speeches, the announcement speeches of successful presidential candidates, the ones that actually become president. and what's remarkable is their announcement speech sounds like their victory speech. the candidates that are able to stay on message and know why they are running usually are the ones that figure out a way to win. let me move over to monica alba up in tampa. monica, the setting for trump's rally appears to be all about a get out the vote effort. >> 100%, chuck. and it's also, as you mentioned,

florida, florida, florida. the president seems to be focused on dismissing covid, covid, covid. he continues to repeat that at almost every rally he's been to this week. and it's quite on display here today with thousands gathered. i've been to so many of these rallies now in the era of the pandemic, and i've never been to one with so few people wearing masks. you had volunteers trying to encourage people to wear face coverings and people were shouting back at them, i don't feel i need to. i'm outdoors. i don't want to. you look at this crowd and governor ron desantis, a republican, close ally of the president, speaking about that. they are also trying to dismiss the health crisis as we see numbers rising in hospitalizations here in florida. but beyond the coronavirus, which the president continues to make false claims about, it's simply going away, we know that's not the case, today he's expected to really focus on the economy. he's going to be talking about those gdp numbers. no surprise there, but he's also

going to be trying to make an outreach directly to latino voters. they are seeing some incremental numbers they like in florida with their message. they're going to be presenting a new american dream plan. that's something the president rolled out for african-american voters called the platinum plan. these are things he'd only do for these minority groups if re-elected. but looking at the crowd here, the president is going to be absolutely focused on those main messages and then he's going to be back in florida, chuck. this is probably the place, florida, where he'll spend the most time all year campaigning. they feel good about what they are seeing internally. the places where they are nervous about pennsylvania, north carolina, he'll be there later today. pennsylvania really critical to them. those are the three states i'm told he'll spend the most time in in the last 48 hours. >> monica alba, it is amazing the alternative reality that i'm seeing back there. i can't see a mask at all behind you. i couldn't find one.

mon karks thank monica, thanks very much. mark caputo, it feels as though there are two realities and maybe florida best represents the two realities on the virus. those two events right there are going to show this bizarre -- there's the governor. i mean, it is -- is it as divided as it looks? >> oh, yeah. if you look at the polling, yes, i understand it looks like biden has three, four, five, if those are -- those are leads within the margin of error. it's a closely divided state. i'm not saying it's going to be a one-point race but judging by past practice and past elections it looks like it. my brother and brother-in-law both live in tampa. they're both trump voters. they don't believe in masks. my brother-in-law's sister, my wife believes in masks. just in my own family in florida, to give you an idea of the stark divide that we see in the state. one of the interesting things about that -- >> no, i -- >> one of the interesting things

about that trump event there, that's in the parking lot of raymond james stadium. it's right next door, i mean in the same area, as the early voting site of raymond james stadium. so literally people go from that rally and go early vote. the republicans have been pouring it on in the in-person early voting. >> marc, what's been interesting about looking at all this polling this year and in florida is, it's a reminder that there is no -- there is no historical context that your like, if i hit that number like better than 16, then it's definitely going to go x. you know, hey, if somebody wins, do it. if a democrat wins duval, they win the state. whoops, that didn't happen. if you hit 64% in miami, you'll win -- whoops, that didn't happen. and it looks like we're getting -- i mean, you have a very divided latino vote. there's a lot of polls showing single digit splits between the two. the biden folks, i swear, it's going to be double digits. the overperformance of biden

among older white voters. you see biden doing well in the northern part of the state. then perhaps in dade county. how many up is down pieces of the demographic pie are there this year in florida? >> oh, well, it's florida. we like to jumble everything around. florida man, from florida for a reason. i think there is still one number we can hold to. that's if biden gets 40% of the white vote he'll probably win the state in florida and, therefore, the presidency. i'm still going to hold to that, but to your point, florida has a tendency to confound us. >> what do you -- one of the things they i think many democrats have learned playing the role of charlie brown and lucy on the football is no matter how well they do, republicans find more votes in those nonsalt water counties. what have you seen in the early vote numbers to indicate, are they going to have the same surge we saw four years ago, or has there been some mitigation

to that? >> well, that's hard to compare. what we have seen is we have seen a surge and reversal of fortune. used to be that republicans cast absentee ballots by mail and democrats voted early in person. trump demonized mail-in voting. democrats stressed it so they basically switched positions. what we've seen since october 19th when in-person voting started, republicans really started to come on strong, but democrats have still rolled up historic margins. so we are seeing signs that that republican wave is washing through or that republican tide is rising. but the question is, how many more high propensity voters to republicans have and how much are republicans betting their high propensity voters show up, that the democrats don't turn out more newly registered and lower propensity voters? that's the big confusing ball game. so many different moving parts we don't quite know. it's safe to say, i talked to a democratic organizer looking at

the early vote numbers. yes, the democrats like the top line. they don't like the trend. he said, we've got to stop the bleeding. that's going to be the watch word for democrats rolling into this last weekend of in-person early voting before election day. >> do you feel like you have a grasp on, if i told you, you went into a coma today, you woke up the day after the election and i said to you, biden won by a point or trump won by a point, if i said that, would you be like, oh, then this must have happened if biden won or this must have happened if trump won? >> no, because it's just one of the things i've just learned in this state is play it as it lies. you don't know that until you're on the course. i can see biden winning by as much as two points and trump winning by as much as 1 1/2 points. i guess that means the state might favor biden by half a point. i'm basing that on polling. is polling accurate? i'm not sure. when you have polling within the margin of error and it's a high turnout election, turnout matters.

it's true. it all depends on turnout. the bottom line is, if republicans overperform on election day, if they have an r-plus two electorate, they cast two percentage point more ballots than democrats, they'll probably win if the polling is right. the reason i'm saying that is biden appears to be winning independent voters, and that might be enough of a cushion for him. but what the democrats want to do is keep the election turnout even. by the end of election day, they want about as many democrats to vote as republicans in order to really take it and that's still an open question. >> our poll was r plus 4 and we had biden ahead. it's just one of many polls out there. but for what it's worth, we did have that. anyway, monica alba, mike memoli and marc caputo giving us a florida, florida, florida start. you are looking live right now at tampa, florida, on the left. coconut creek, florida, in broward county on the right. both rallies are set to kick off within the hour. we'll dip into both events so

stay with us. we'll bring you a piece of them. that's for sure. also ahead -- america's covid crisis sends more shock waves through the markets. today's gdp numbers look good. but are they good? i'll talk with larry kudlow next. and don't miss tonight's "meet the press reports." we'll tackle the issue that everybody wants to know. are the polls right or wrong? this week, the 2016 polls seemed to forecast a win for hillary clinton. were they wrong? or did we all just read them wrong? an in-depth look at how polls work and how to understand them like an expert. watch "meet the press reports" at 11:00 p.m. on nbc news now or stream it any time on peacock. all you will need to know to decide whether you trust the polls on tuesday. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪

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welcome back. just five days to go. president trump is touting today's news about gdp growth.

there's a lot of caveats to this one. that's after it plunged 9% in the previous quarter. after the first shutdowns over the pandemic. so the increase came from an extremely lower base line. the economy is also 3.5% smaller than it was at the start of this year. we've not recovered from the start of this pandemic. the unemployment rate is 7.9%. nearly 3.5 points higher than where it was in march but not in double digits anymore. half the 22 million americans who have lost their jobs since the start of the pandemic appear to be fully out of work. with coronavirus cases again on the rise, federal stimulus money running out, no prospects for another relief bill in sight, the president is boasting about the economy. with me is larry kudlow, director of the white house economic council. larry, nice to see you. so let me start with this. this third quarter number, to me, is a screaming, flashing warning sign to your administration, to the senate republicans and to congressional

democrats that you need more stimulus because this entire third quarter appears to be fueled by government stimulus, whether the fed or here. and now we have nothing. are we staring at a bad fourth quarter because of the inability to get a deal? >> i think you are staring at a great fourth quarter, by the way. first of aushlll, 33% increase annualized is a record number in the history of gdp data going back over 50 years. and you've got to look at this piece by piece, chuck. i don't think you are giving it quite enough credit. yeah, we're coming back from a deep contraction from the pandemic, absolutely agree with that. but, look, consumer spending up 41%, housing up 59%, business investment up 70%. automobile production up 1200% at an annual rate. and here's the important point. in order to meet these new economic demands, as we reopen the economy and so forth,

inventories are depleted. inventories will have to be rebuilt. so you'll see, for example, we don't have enough houses. we'll have a construction boom. that's going to be a big job increasing good wages. we don't have enough automobiles to meet the higher demand. that's going to create tremendous production and overtime in the automobile industry and so forth. so that's why i have argued that this v-shaped recovery is, in fact, going to be self-sustaining because of the inventory recovery. so that's a key point. to your point on the assistance bill, the stimulus bill. i don't think the recovery depends on a stimulus bill. i do not. however, however, as i've said frequently, there are some targeted areas we really could have used help on. one of them is an extension of the ppp small business lending program. $135 billion, chuck, unspent money. why couldn't that have been

appropriated in the bat of an eye. second, you are right about unemployment. about half the people have gone back to work but there's too much hardship there. i absolutely agree with you. so the president had to take an executive order a couple of months ago to put 300 bucks in, $100 from the states. that money is running out. why can't congress appropriate, if they are so concerned about unemployment, why wouldn't they have appropriated a narrow bill? airlines assistance is another point. k through 12 school assistance on covid rebuilding. we don't need $3 trillion. we don't need a wish list to democratic ideology and politics. now i don't agree with their politics but i respect it. i'm just saying, why now, chuck? why don't you wait until later or we're going to have an election over these politics. we should have had this assistance bill several months ago. that's the point i'm trying to make. and it could help. it would absolutely -- >> larry, what i'm trying to

figure out is, look, if we were going to focus just on, it's senate republicans that didn't cooperate here. i'll take your point. i think your boss and i think nancy pelosi wanted to cut a deal. but how is she supposed to cut a deal when senate republicans don't agree to anything and the president has refused to get senate republicans to come to the table? they haven't come to the table, larry. >> but i wouldn't say that. i wouldn't quite put it that way. but, look, the president and others -- all of us are in constant touch with our senate republican friends. there were some issues, though. some substantive policy issues here. as you know, one of them is the liability insurance issue. we should have had some safeguards and protections. it would help the economy, would help small business. it would help the very restaurants who are always talking about who are suffering quite a bit. it would help the low-income wage earners who work in leisure and hospitality and restaurants. so the liability insurance thing is held up a lot. and there are other important

disagreements between the senate republicans. we came a long way. steve mnuchin is an excellent negotiator. we came a long way. the president, by and large, would have offered or has offered to put more money in in the key targeted areas -- >> but the senate republicans -- just because you said it, larry, i understand that. i take your point. i know what you guys did. all of that is true. and the senate republicans said, pound sand. they said we're not going near that number. so i mean, i take your point. i know you moved. so does nancy pelosi. she acknowledged the move. the issue is the senate republicans. >> well, okay. i don't agree with that. mitch mcconnell said, if there is a true compromise, bipartisan compromise, he would go with it. i think, chuck, the issue here was key points, state and local

government issues, a lot of spending for mismanaged states and pension funds. the president has pointed that out. mitch mcconnell has pointed that out. the liability insurance -- >> can i pause you there, larry? do you realize the economic calamity that's coming if you don't bail out states? and by the way, the state of florida, the state of oklahoma also has revenue problems? it's not just blue states. if you don't bail out the states here, it's a calamity on the state and local governments, and the economy will crater. no? >> look, okay, that's an interesting point of view. i don't agree with it, chuck. first of all, a couple of things. we increased our compromised offer on state and local government spending. we did that. but secondly, what really matters, what will bail out the states is the strong economic recovery. that's what's really matters here. and that's always the case. now, by the way, growth is picking up and revenues are picking up at the state level.

we'll get more information on that over time. you're not going to get that growth by raising taxes. you'll not get that growth by reregulating health care or knocking out natural gas. let's be serious here. these policies that the other team is going for are anti-growth policies. and that is also, as a backdrop has held up these negotiations. look, i can't -- i'm not responsible for all the votes in the senate and so forth. i'm just saying from our point of view, we have cooperated. the speaker -- the letter -- she puts a letter to steve mnuchin. doesn't really need a letter because he's talked to her every day for three months. some way that letter got to politico before it got to the treasury secretary. it just seems like she's stringing us along. so you blame the senate republicans. okay. that's a point of view. we're at the point we don't see her compromising. we just don't see it. i want to grow the economy, chuck. you know that. i've spent my whole career --

>> that i know. >> let's cut taxes, deregulate and allow the energy markets to function and we'll get a bang-up recovery next year. a bang-up recovery. >> here's what i think is true. there's not a lot of trust in washington between the three entities you and i have been discussing. perhaps that gets better after the election. larry kudlow, chief economic adviser to the president. your optimism is always fun to talk with. always fun to -- appreciate you sharing your point of view with me, sir. >> i appreciate it, chuck. thanks for the interview. appreciate it. up ahead -- the coronavirus crisis and one of america's newest epicenters. we'll talk with a doctor on the front lines in utah where they're actually talking about having to ration care now. and another live look at both of the trump and biden rallies as they prepare to go live soon in florida. both are expected to get under way very, very shortly. be right back. at dell technologies, we started by making the cloud easier to manage.

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dr. anthony fauchy y ifauci isa national mask mandate and is warning the small indoor gatherings are driving the outbreaks. in a sign normalcy is still months away, the boston marathon has already been postponed. organizers still have their eyes on a 2021 date but in the fall. government officials are warning hospitals and health care clinics across the country about the potential for russian cyberattacks. some hospitals in new york state and on the west coast have reported recent hacks. but it's unclear if they are connected to some sort of international threat. the cyberthreats come as hospitalizations are rising across the country. rhode island will implement new restrictions tomorrow. governor rimondo warned the state's health care system could reach capacity. and in utah, health care workers are preparing for the worst. the state hospital association submitted a draft plan on rationing care to the governor. some hospitals have opened up overflow icus but are struggling to keep up with demand. joining me is dr. ken c. graves,

associate chief medical officer for the university of utah health. dr. graves, thanks for coming on and let's just start with, paint the picture of the current situation. we know you're seeing a spike. we see things like rationed care and that grabs our attention. how concerned are you that you may have to ration care? >> good morning. thank you for having me. that is definitely a scary headline to see in any paper. so i want to say a few things about that. first, at the university of utah, we are a very good hospital. we've been among the top in the nation for the last several years. we've been preparing for this for months. one thing i want to make clear is that our goal is to stay out of what's called crisis standards of care as long as possible. so that means that we're going to try to stretch our ability to take care of as many people as possible as safely as possible, as long as possible. so as of right now here at the u, we're not rationing care. we're not planning on doing

that. what crisis standards of care looks like is saying we don't have the resources to provide everything to everyone. so how do we do that in a way that's the most fair and offers the most benefit? we hope to never get there. and what we would ask is that our public hears us and responds by wearing masks, physically distancing, not going to places where there are large crowds indoors unmasked. >> dr. graves, did you feel prepared for this surge in -- look, the march and april hit for a lot of hospitals, you know, nobody was fully prepared. for this surge, did you feel prepared or did you -- or did sort of the -- did things, you know, did the federal government stop getting stuff to you? were there -- the lack of urgency sort of show up in those terms? >> yeah, great question. so i began working on the coronavirus pandemic back in march. as you know, the picture we had

at that time was very different than the picture we have right now. i would say in march, very few health care systems felt prepared. we spent a lot of time planning and evolving our plans. there's an eisenhower quote that says it's not about the plan. it's about the planning. and i would echo that now because one thing about health care is it's really unpredictable. not just in response to coronavirus but things like heart attacks, strokes, pneumonia, the flu. we eat almost every day to evaluate our plan. we're as prepared as possible. that said, we are an academic medical center with a huge -- managing a pandemic where we'd get cases from idaho, wyoming and montana might be challenging if we get a lot. so we hope to not see that and that our public will respond and do everything to keep each other safe. >> i was just going to say, you just said, i hope our public

will respond in that, are you not seeing the mask wearing? i feel like among the western states, utah's governor has been more aggressive than some of the other states that border utah. are people not wearing masks? what is -- what are you seeing as sort of the biggest cause of the spread these days? >> yeah, it's hard to say. it varies quite a bit throughout our state. so there are pockets where we have tremendous support. people are wearing masks. they are physically distancing. there are also areas where the majority of the population does not wear masks. that is challenging because in those areas, it might look different than it does here to us at the university of utah. not everyone is seeing firsthand experience of what this disease can do, both to a community and to an individual. things like covid long haulers. so someone has symptoms for months after their illness. i think that's what i would like people to hear is that this is serious. this is scary. and it can make you very, very

sick. so masking, while i think for some people may be inconvenient, it certainly is the best thing you can do for your community. >> we know there is some tools to help with therapeutics, whether it's remdesivir or perhaps regeneron, which the president used. how much access do you have to some of this stuff? and do you think you have enough to see if you can save lives? >> we have a number of doses of remdesivir. we do not have unlimited remdesivir. we do not have unlimited regeneron or antibody therapies. as a state, we proactively developed criteria for who was a good candidate for these treatments and who is not. so i don't think it's safe for the public to think these are things we can just give everyone when they show up. we don't have a lot, and they are also very expensive. >> so bottom line, don't assume

that there is this cure out there that there is this way to survive this. just please wear a mask. is that right? >> prevention is by far the best thing for this illness. the other thing to recognize is that many of the studies have been done in patients that are critically ill. steroids, remdesivir. we look for criteria of somebody being sick enough to meet the studies. so i think treatment is not at all close to the degree of prevention. so preventing is absolutely the best thing here. dr. kencee graves from the university of utah. thanks for coming on and sharing your expertise and the story from out there. bottom line, wear a mask. thank you. up next -- the president's shadow looms large over the montana senate race. the u.s. senate balance of power on the line. we'll take you to big sky country. plus, it's a candidate double feature in florida as president trump and joe biden cross the state to campaign.

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welcome back. besides winning the presidency, control of the senate is the other major prize up for grabs on tuesday. and president trump's continued deficit in the polls is making republicans down the ballot a bit nervous about their chances. we've seen some senate candidates in tough races try to sort of distance themselves from trump. susan collins. some of them doubled down on their support. it may have pushed some senate races closer and it could hinge on north carolina, iowa and one of the more unpredictably politically unpredictable red states in the country at times, montana. the race there is between an incumbent republican senator and a current democratic governor, former presidential candidate steve bullock. joining me to break this race down is mike dennison, the political reporter for the montana television network, our

nbc partner out there. mike, thanks for doing this. let me start with the big picture here. this is a state that we do assume donald trump's going to carry, though it's not going to be the blowout that it was. to me, it hinges on this. trump/bullock voters. how many of them are there? and are there enough? >> that is the question. you mentioned the other states where democrats think they can flip the seat. colorado, maine, et cetera. all of those states are states that biden is going to win or may win. and here we know trump is going to win. so the question is, just as you put it, how many voters are going to vote for trump that turn around and vote for governor bullock. four years ago, that happened when he won, trump won. a lot of people voted for trump and bullock. this time he's running against an incumbent u.s. senator. he's not running as an incumbent governor to get re-elected.

it will be tougher for bullock to do that. >> you know, i am curious with the coronavirus having put so many governors sort of in the spotlight. they have to make these calls about whether a restriction hero mandate there, this to me seems to be -- it adds a little more pressure and attention to governor bullock. how would you say the state has responded to governor bullock's handling of the virus? >> well, initially, his approval rating back in the late spring, early summer, up near high 60s, 70%. he was fairly aggressive in shutting things down and tackling it. we have a mask mandate in many counties. but here we are in the fall when cases are spiking like crazy. today almost 900 new cases in montana which is the second highest daily county we've had and been in the 500 to 800 to

900 in the last week or so. the question is, will governor bullock get any blame for that or will it trickle down to him and people saying maybe he's not doing the right thing? i'm not so sure that it will because there's a lot of resistance to masks in lots of parts of the state and talk of expanding that mandate. so we don't know whether the more aggressive or less aggressive approach is the right one for him to take in terms of his political fortunes. >> my unusual montana bureau chief when it comes to montana senate is our old friend tom brokaw who spends a lot of time in montana. he's been watching a lot of television ads. he goes, my goodness. neither candidate knows -- will let the other one outgun them, and he meant it literally. he's saying the amount of ammunition he's seen gun related ads both from bullock and danes has been up there. in your -- is he right? is he seeing something that

bigger than we've seen before when it comes to bullock showing off his second amendment -- his second amendment rights? >> that's a staple of montana politics. if you are a democrat or -- if you are a republican running for state office here, you talk about guns and you talk about how the democrats have f ratings from the nra. you get yourself out there with a rifle or shot gun and get your picture taken. i look at the sheer volume of ads. we have a race here where the total spending is going to be in excess of $150 million, twice as much as any race we've seen here before and the wesleyan center which you're familiar with has shown there have been more ads in this senate race than any other race in the country. >> here's a question for you that i think is unique. this is not the first sort of sitting governor versus sitting senator race we've covered in the past, but it does seem as if

the voters treat one as the incumbent and that's usually not a good thing. who has been treated -- danes is the incumbent but he's the sitting governor. who do you think voters think is the incumbent? >> yeah, i almost think they both can run as incumbents, although i think that danes probably has a little edge there in terms of incumbency because we have governor bullock trying to run for a new office and take him out. and also we have the dynamic of, who controls the u.s. senate? as you mentioned, this could be one of those seats. and i've got to think that some voters are going to the polls or casting their ballot and saying, okay, that's something i have in mind. do i want republicans? do i want democrats to control the u.s. senate? in that regard, that factor may work a little bit against governor bullock. but in terms of incumbency, it's pretty even at this point. >> mike dennison, really appreciate you doing this.

the montana television network. our nbc affiliate up there. thanks for doing this. thanks for sharing your expertise. there may be people at prefer bullock but prefer a republican senate. what does that voter do? there's your key. up next -- the supreme court decisions in two battleground states and their mail-in ballot fights. what do they mean. we're still awaiting president trump and former vice president joe biden to speak in florida. both candidates are en route to their rallies. we'll have coverage of both events when they happen. still fresh

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♪ welcome back. five days remaining the supreme court is now 20 days. north carolina can now accept ballots up to six days after election day. justices blocked lower court rulings. the court declined to take another look and fast track. that is the issue of late arriving mail ballots. they will arrive up to three days after the election. the ballots still have to be marked and mailed by election day. there is a question around the pennsylvania ruling. joining me now is pete williams. help me clarify, i think the

ruling feels like tlefrg, that there will not be a relook at it. why does it feel like the pe pennsylvania rules is just what we're going to say for now? >> that is what it is. the republicans made two runs at the supreme court. they said we have a state supreme court order down here. they say we can count ballots for three more days. we want you to put an immediate hold on that. the supreme court refused to do that. that was the 4-4 vote. now they say this time we want you to hear a repeal of the supreme court itself. we want you to take the case right now it is that latter part that the supreme court decided to say 37 what difference does that make? before the election, none.

the state, i think to perhaps take a little wind out of the republicans saying okay, all counties, all election folks, keep them separate. the runs that come in between election day and friday. put them in a locked container. that guidance may change now that the supreme court did what it did. if, you know we're going to know how many ballots are in between the two deadlines. if it could make a difference i guess they could come back and say now take it on a fast track. they said that no one knew how those ballots might affect the election. it would feel very political.

it could make a difference and get trump elected here. i think there would be more political pressure to take the case. if it came down to a question of who will be the next president maybe the supreme court would not have a choice. it is four votes in order to hear something? walk us through that, and with explanation, without explanation, when do we get an explanation and when don't we? if the court is going to grant a case it takes four to grant and five votes to win. you're not going to vote to

craft the case. that is always a strategic question. but they could grant the case and they could come back with another emergency appeal next week if the scenario that i just talked about is in effect. there is still some options here. i think the next thing to watch for is if the state issues new guidance now that the supreme court has done what it did and now tell the counties okay, go ahead and count those votes. remember set aside all that we have been talking about. what is the law right now? the law in pennsylvania is what state supreme court said in september. you must count votes that come in after the election day up until 5:00 on friday.

you be an analysis and you seem to find two patterns. pattern one is that republicans r win more of the arguments than the democrats. a lot of deference to the states that did give democrats some victories. in north carolina it was a decision by the state board of elections, the supreme court would not touch. contrast that with wisconsin where the state didn't want to extend the nail ballot deadline. the supreme court said we don't want federal judges second guessing what the states want to do. for some justices on the court, for thomas, aledo, and gorsuch,

it doesn't matter if it is a federal or a state court. they think only the legislature can change the rule. if any court, a state or federal court tries to change the rule, they think that is wrong. pete williams, let me ask this. it sounds like the republicans or the state of pennsylvania is expecting another lawsuit over those ballots ta arrive after election day. should we expect some sort of attempted injunction on counting those ballots? >> well, you can't get one now. that is what the republicans tries to get last week and failed. you're going to have to wait for something else to cause the republicans to go back and said okay now things have changed. now there are new circumstances on the ground. there aren't any right now. and if anything the state has come a little closer to what republicans wanted which is, you know, putting those between the

deadline ballots in a separate container. so you know, i don't know how you would come back now and say don't count the votes. there would have to be something different. and perhaps the scenario i just sketched out. you know how many of those there are and you think it would make a difference. >> all right, now i will thank you and now i will relief you from your duties. pete, thank you very much. katie katy tur picks up right here. another live handoff. >> two days. two in a row. i certainly enjoy it. melania is speaking about her husband right now. we're going to go to that in a moment when the president starts pe speaking, but let us first start with our 2: