>> this hour, picking up steam. president trump ready to speak at a rally in iowa, and joe biden gearing up for a souls to the polls event in philadelphia. good day, everyone. welcome to weekend's with alex witt with just two days to go until election day, here is what is happening out there. >> let's get to some breaking news in a toss up state. the texas supreme court blocked a republican lawsuit. the tossing of ballots from drive through sites in houston. more than 100,000 votes would have impacted mainly minority voters, and now a sprint to the finish line. both candidates wasting to

full-time on the campaign trail. today biden is focusing all of his efforts in pennsylvania while kamala harris stumps in georgia and north carolina. >> we are better than this. we deserve better than this. we want a president who understands that regardless where you live, your race, your gender, your age, the language your grandmother speaks, that we all have so much more in common than what separates us. america knows we need a leader like joe biden who understands the importance of bringing folks together who understand that the real measure of a person's strength is not based on who you beat down, it is based on who you lift up. >> meantime the president blitzing through five battleground states today starting in michigan. >> we're doing very, very well.

we're leading all over the place. we're supposed to be leading after the big great red wave coming over the next little while. it is coming, it is building. it will be a wave like i think -- and this is far beyond the last one. this is a wave like no one has ever seen before. >> several new polls out today give us one final look at how this race stands. there is a match up between the president and joe biden. the former vice president leads the current president nationally by a margin. there's not much changed from last month's biden lead. in the critical battleground states a poll shows biden leading trump in four key states up by six points in arizona. three in florida, six in pennsylvania, and 11 opponents in wisconsin. our nbc reporters are across the

country to capture the mood of the voters. we will go to philadelphia first where joe biden will have the first event of the day, al ali vitali is joining us. we know you have news on the biden plans for the next few days. >> on the ground and in the rain here. joe biden as he begins a two-day blitz of this battleground state. at this point in the race you know where the candidates are campaigning is telling the story of how the candidates view the map. so he begins today with rallies around the philadelphia area. starting tomorrow kamala harris and joe biden will split this state up. biden going west, harris on the eastern part, and they're doing a barn storm of pennsylvania. this is not surprising, but

there are some other states they have been in that do raise eyebrows. the time they spent in georgia. that is a place that kamala harris is campaigning today. i want to play a little bit of her explanation for why democrats have seen the tight polls they have seen there and frankly the energy on the ground. listen to why she says this. >> i was just saying to stacey abrams. i'm so thankful to her for the work she has been doing for years to fight for the right to vote. what she has been doing for years to fight that good fight. often with just thankless energy. but she keeps giving. all that we are looking to now in terms of georgia and the prospect of what we might accomplish in this state, in large part, we have to say thank

you, stacey abrams for the work that you have done. >> and frankly i spent time in georgia in the counties that she is campaigning in today. at that point one of the big messaging items she had on the ground is that georgia was a place that democrats may have neglected in past cycles but thshe believed if you engaged the voters that democrats would see the fruits of that labor born out. stacey abrams lost that goran's race, but she won the war. and the neeshl it has as a place that has not gone blue since 1992. you see it in the polls, in the sustained inestment there. and democrats really trying to see if all of that investment can result in a state that could help them tip the map.

that is a state that trump won in 2016, but democrats trying to go hard and show they can make a run. >> yeah, she was very enthusiastic. giving a rousing introduction there. get an umbrella over you, my friend. in the next several minutes president trump is expected to peak speak at a campaign rally in iowa. we are being joined from dubu dubuque, iowa. is it windy and cold. >> yes, it is also loud. the president about 45 minutes late. the crowd is eagerly awaiting him. this crowd is large, but it is not as large as we have seen in the past likely probably because of the colder weather. no social distancing, but more

masks could also be attributed to the cold weather out here. this stop is stra tegic. we heard speakers prior to the music coming on. and they were really touting that poll that you talked about if is a departure from the september register showing the president behind by seven points in this state. he made up that ground, but it remains a departure from the national polls where he is still trailing eight to ten points. now he of course won the state in 2016 by nine points. but joe biden for his part is not giving up on the state. he held a drive in rally on friday. keeping in mind with the pandemic and the cases rising,

they have risen 48% in the last few weeks pl early voting and absentee balloting coming in. that is up 65% and those ballots can be counted here in the state of iowa prior to election night. we should have a lot of those results on election night. so a lot of those results will take awhile. when it comes to this event out here, we'll wait for the president's remarks as they come in from here. >> okay, corrie, thank you very much. narchz is another swing state they be visiting. let's go to morgan ratford

joining us from charlotte, north carolina. what's your sense of things on the ground there. >> all eyes are on north carolina as you can imagine. the polls are tight but we're seeing biden in the lead according to our latest poll. there are also event that's are happening around the state here that are raising some eyebrows. an hour northeast of where i'm standing right now there was an issue of pepper spray. there was demonstrators, and they said the police started to spray pepper spray, and police maintain they did so only have telling them to disburse. take a listen to what one of the rally supporters said that was there. >> it's worth it. >> morgan, i don't think we have that sound, but we're looking as

disturbing video there, ref referencing what you were talking about. >> right, there was about 200 people there. people as young as five. i want to break in chas chase beasley. you have been here, you were elected in 2016 and we're seeing momentum for joe biden right now. why do you they is? what is different this time around? >> i think that people are h hungry for a different style of leadership. people are not prepared to deal with this for the next four years and you have people that understand the stakes and the way that they will change things that are going on right now is if we have a change in the white house. >> you represent a suburban district. and we're seeing that former vice president joe biden has been picking up in those districts. what is happening in the suburbs from your vantage point?

>> it is very focussed on what will happen in your family and so many people in these districts are seeing so much turmoil so many times where they feel like they're making sacrifices and they're not seeing the same sacrifices come from the top. leaders lead by example. i think that is part of the reason that so many people are gr gravitating towards them. >> we have to close the deal. our numbers have been strong. i really think that we can close a deal but people can't get complacent. you have to make sure people go out to vote on tuesday. >> we expect to see 95 to% to 9 of all votes. they said as long as they were marked by november 3rd, and north carolina has until november 12th, but the majority

of the information should be here by tuesday. >> we have that soundbite and we're going to play it right now and have you come out on the other side to explain what we're listening to. here it is, everyone. >> at first we didn't know what it was because they sprayed it on the ground. then everybody started choking. my 5-year-old ran away. she didn't know what it was. she was slowing up. my 11-year-old was coughing, choking, crying, screaming. she was scared. i think it was a voter intimidation thing. they didn't necessarily target voters but the fact that they were down there and doing that distracted people from what we were there to do. we were there to vote. people being pepper sprayed and earths, and people forgot. or they were too sick. >> so, alex, you heard them describe that as voter

intimidation. i would like to bring in chais beasley one more time. you heard them saying it was voter intimidation. what do you make of that incident? >> in the words of john lewis your right to vote is sacred. i think it is a real problem if shows why we need different leadership. why we have to get people out to vote. it must matter. >> i have to add that police officials say they ordered people to disburse. the rally goers say they were never ordered to disburse, and police say they did not have a permit to block the roads. the governor here calling that unacceptable. >> thank you for the interview and for bringing that information to us. let's go now to the breaking

news from texas and a significant win for the early voters there. garrett haake joining us from houston. tell us what happens and what this could mean. >> yeah, good news for about 127,000 houstonians here. they are trying to expand access in the pandemic. they created drive up voting centers. you can pull up and cast your ballot and then drive through. there has been a lawsuit to get them throne out. this doesn't mean that that is over. that aim group is suing in federal court and they're going to have a hearing on monday morning. one of the attorneys said me

that she would make the argument that the highest court in the state of texas says this is legal as did the secretary of state. so a significant win today for harris coupty, all of those people that voted early, but not the final word on this just yet. >> thank you, garrett, that is certainly good news. tonight join msnbc. we have live back to back election specials for you at 7:00 p.m. eastern. join us for a special look at the role for the white house. we are going to preview what to watch for election day. at 10:00 p.m. eastern, the latest polling data and the outcome scenarios that all start tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern. right now, democrats have their eyes on a handfull of

senate seats. some of the tielgtest races in this country with the recent polls showing a five point different for republicans and their democratic challengers. richard is going to break it down for us. >> the top reporters here covering those states right now, right? we have 35 states looking at those open seats when we look at the senate. so where is the balance of power? 53 republicans and 47 democrats. so if you're looking at how you might keep control, if you're leader mechanic connell, the republicans can afford to lose two seats because they have the vice presidential tie breaking vote. you can afford to lose three seats and still maintain control of the senate. any numbers greater than that and the democrats take over the country, the senate, in terms of

the balance of power. so i wanted to drill down for a second in terms of which way this is leaning. let's go to the latest poll. they took all of the polls and they smushed them together. you see if you're a democrat it has looked really good. you were above midline all of the way through. the widest gap is november 1st. 76% probability that democrats will win the senate and take control. 24% if you're a republican. so that 3-1 odds doesn't look good if you're playing fantasy congress at the moment and you're on this side of the aisle. let's look at battleground states. these are the 12 that we're watching. you see there are two that are blue. there are ten that are red. and drilling down into one of the blue states that we're

watching let's look at alabama. according to doug jones who was in on the special election at the moment it doesn't look good. the latest poll that is not very recent shows a 12% gap here. he might be the first loss for the democrats, one of the early call that's we may be seeing. colorado, another swing state, you see the eight percentage point -- looks like we have a glitch there, alex. looks like the 12 percentage point is quite large for doug jones at the moment well covering the margin of error. one more for you and that is colorado. martha mcsally, we were looking at the numbers and she is trending up in the latest numbers. mark kelly trending down. this 4% gap right here, alex, could be tighter because of the

way it has been trending in the last several polls. this all said 2020 these are the states to be watching when we're looking at tuesday. this is where the balance of power will be decided. you a lot to watch and a lot of variables. >> i just want to make that point, i know there was a glitch there with hickenlooper. he has very popular name there. that helps out his case. richard thank you for that. voters may decide the election. what issues are key for their vote? that is next. issues are key fo vote that is next th and energy. whoo-hoo! great tasting ensure with 9 grams of protein, 27 vitamins and minerals, and nutrients to support immune health.

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two days now before the final vote. we're going to hear from them throughout the day as we hear the latest on early polling as

we gauge the mood. let's give you a look at the number there's with more than 2.3 million early votes. however, the big race with everybody is talking, it is the senate match between martha mcsally and mark kelly. let's go to vaughn hilliard who has been keeping a close eye on all that is arizona for us. he joins us now. what are you hearing there? the are you surprised? the poll numbers say they're tightening up. >> yeah, this race was shown to be 10 or 11 points to mark kelly's change.

we should remind everybody go back to 2018. she lost by 2.5 percentage points in that praise and she is trying to the no give up the second u.s. senate seat here in arizona to another california. she is flying around the state today. when you look at martha mcsally's numbers, you have to look at donald trump's numbers. joe biden here has a six-point edge and i this i it is important here with 48 hours until tuesday what does this data tell us? that is the fact that they have lost support among independent

voters. there are indicator that's not just this week from fpolling numbers, but dating back to march. the question is on election day what extent can republican that's didn't show up come out and change this in is where attention it for democrats. there is a two-hour time difference. so arizona will be closing. and we could know the results of that senate race. 11 votes on the line and there is several situations where arizona could clinch. >> i appreciate your perspective there not only on what to expect

on election night, but how to interpret those polls. >> new polling shows biden leading president, but do the polls match up with what is happening on the ground? joining me now is jasmine and bianca. jasmine, you first here. i know you're there in arizona. is what you're hearing and seeing on the ground, does it match what we're seeing in the polls? >> yeah, i'm hearing a lot of energy from democrats, from young voters, latinos, seniors, and some republicans. people are fed up with the trump administration's handling of the pandemic. worried about they. worried about their melt. imflags has been a huge issue here. grass roots group that's have been building power for a decade here and you're seeing the

fruits of that. but i'm also hearing a lot of enthusiasm for republicans as well. i think what we have is a very by fur cased economic recovery in arizona. the state has been one of the ones that has bounced back the fastest. so in some industries, you know, people who are still construction, tech, people who are still working from home, they're doing well and so for them the economy really matters and a lot of republicans believe that trump was doing really well before the economy, before covid hit and that he will be the one to really bring the country back faster. you know bring back jobs faster. people that have been working hard and feeling that economic pain, the claims rounding the corner on the virus are clashing against a cold reality. >> that is a pretty broad

perspective you're developing. what about you, bianca, in your state of florida. the biden and trump rolls there showing them neck and neck. is it as close as it seems? what are you hearing from voters? >> i mean this has been a very aggressive kind of in your face presidential cycle. we have seen every weekend there is a caravan from people in the biden camp or the trump camp. in some places they have converged on the road. i would say that you're seeing a lot of it playing out on the streets in realtime. similar to what jasmine was saying in florida this is a very tourism reliant state from disney to the tourism in south florida. a lot of that stops and it was a real shock to people. people that just want to get

back to work, who, you know, they really just needed to make their money and, you know, people who were living paycheck to paycheck. this was a real shock to them. even today, you know, to this day, a couple days before election day this is name have not received unemployment checks. people still trying to make ends meet if is very much covid related election in that sense. but also people who just want the state to open up and for things to get back to normal. >> i appreciate your snapshots from her perspective states there. ladies, thank you so much. >> in the meantime, a battleground shift. a republican stronghold that is now being called a toss up, plus -- >> i'm chris hayes. the one thing that i'm looking for on election night is who the

president will be. also i'm wondering what the turnout in texas will be. we're seeing records set in early votes. that state could change totally politically and i'm going to be looking for it on election night. m going to be looking for it on election night. this election will decide

the rights of americans for years to come. so its up to us - each and every one of us, to use every tool we have to fight for ourselves and our families. when we vote, things change. when we vote, things get better. and we can have an economy that works for working families. so, i'm kamala harris and i'm asking you to vote for joe biden and me so we can move our country forward. - i'm joe biden and i approve this message.

we're at half past the pour. the president has touched down there in dew buick. he was scheduled to start his rally half an hour ago. better late than never for those awaiting his arrival. he will be speaking to that large crowd there gathered. the recent poll numbers are showing a major shift in several key battleground states. polling averages show joe biden leading or tied.

they are ones that the president won in 2016. m msnbc contributor and the house editor for the cook political report. fred, you first here, how many states do you think could flip on election night. who do you think is most likely to do it? >> before this segment, i think there are ten states that could flip from president trump to dcs. i only counted two where the reverse is true. i think it is states that you included i think iowa has a realistic shot. and i think texas. and i think this election is about the fundamentals. in two years since the 2018 midterms, president trump increased his approval rating by 1%. he was below 50 two years ago.

it will be hard for him to win with those kind of numbers. >> you really think that texas could go? >> i think texas could go, yes, ma'am. >> david, how about you. what are the biggest trends that you're seeing across the board. >> we could be on the cusp of a historic realignment in our politics on tuesday. i believe there is more uncertainty about the post election period than about the election itself when you look at the whole picture of national polling. we talk about the blue wall. the focus has been on the last four years. but we're also looking at the red wall. and fred, who is perhaps the top democratic pollster out there, is seeing the same things that we are. texas, florida, north carolina, and georgia all extremely close right now. i would not be surprised if trump or biden won any combination of them.

there is no question that the record shattering turnout that we're seeing particularly in the mayor metros and their suburbs, and the changing preferences, is something that could make history on tuesday. >> so, fred, as we look at the poll numbers, much of which will back up what you have been just saying about these ten states that could flip, one has to think about 2016 and the mistakes made by pollsters. the national numbers, i have thrown them out, thinking let me just focus on state numbers. why should people trust these numbers? what kind of lessons have been learn snd what do we know better now? >> i think in 2016 we lost the trees through the forest. as we know now painfully americans elect their president not by the popular vote, but actually the national polls were accurate in 2016 by states.

and i do think, alex, pollsters vote democratic and republican have learned their lessons from 2016. doing a better job from getting the hard to hit voters, but also, alex, fundamentally more late polls in these battleground states i think is giving us a good picture of what is going to happen. in the battleground and the national polls, the one impressive thing in the topsy turvy election. >> we have known each other for how long, i don't even want to think about it -- >> we have known each other, alex, from when polling was considered accurate. >> come on, it's not that bad. david, you have crunched all of the numps. you followed these polls for awhile now. with all of that said who do you

think -- i mean can you tell me who you think has the best chance of winning on tuesday? if you look at these poll numbers we're talking about one would think the wind is behind the back of biden. >> biden has the best chance of winning on tuesday and it is not even close to make that judgment, really. i'm not saying the election outcome is certain by any means, but the picture of the polls is much different than it was four years ago. biden's lead is larger, more stable. there is far fewer voters. there is less of a chance for a late break. finally the district level polling that we're seeing. and it is conducted by parties and candidates at the district level. we're seeing that back up the national polls showing biden

ahead. trump is under performing where he was. and clearly by even more of an under performance in the sunbelt suburbs that are shifting so rapidly. >> fred, you're a democratic pollster, give me your nightmare scenario where you see him threading the needing and pulling off a 270 win. >> all of us having learned our lesson from 2016. i would refrain from pro announcements. in some respects, what i'm going to say next is a cliche of campaigns, but they're cliches because ucoften times they're true. more so than usual i think the turn out from tuesday is a nightmare scenario.

i think he will win because i think so many people voted already. there was a lot of undecideds and the volatility of the weekend and the fact that some of the states like pennsylvania had most of the people vote on election day contributed to pennsylvania flipping to druftr. we don't fwhoe will vote on tuesday. and i think -- i don't know if david agrees, but i they is a remaining x factor. hopefully a lot of democrats have voted and hopefully more democrats will vote on tuesday. >> david, you get the last response to that. >> i think we have a pretty good idea going for historic turnout. so to the extent that we see an

even larger turnout, it could help trump narrow the gap a little bit in the upper midwest there. in the sunbelt it could benefit testimonies and we kn voters. >> thank you for insights. a new poll is out for latino voters. and it's not a gap, it's a gulf. that story, next. that story, next ♪ ♪ smooth driving pays off with allstate, the safer you drive the more you save you never been in better hands allstate click or call for a quote today

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42 past the hour an a little bit of breaking news to share. the president has arrived late in du buick, iowa. that is a second stop on a five swing state tour. the president will be taking the podium soon. time to talk about breaking news, guys. we have the senior advisor to the bernie sanders 2022 campaign. we just got word from jonathan swan on axios that the president plans to prematurely declare victory on election night if the votes that have beenal lowed thus far show him ahead. that would presumably mean that all of the mail-in ballots, other ballots, would not have

been tabulated fully. so according to jonathan swan of axios, he is saying he will declare victory definitely before each and every vote is cast and countied in this country if the indications are that he is ahead in the vote count. all right, let me get your reaction to this. it is pretty stunning news to get that confirmed. it has been a suspension until now that he might do this. but the fact it is being reported by axios says what to you? >> first, springing a pop quiz on me is that the first that comes to mind is an inappropriate joke. i think on one hand it is not surprising at all.

democrats need to chill starting a week ago, but it's not too late to start right now. tl tuesday will there will be a lot of polls. in an odd way i think that trump will undo what he is attempting to do which is his want by saying something so early and abo absurd that it is easy to discount. it's easy to say the votes have not been counted. but when he is out on an island alone, it makes it easier for everyone to chill. it is when he doesn't say it at 5:00 in the morning or early the next morning where people are jumping to declare. i don't think as long as everyone breathing deeply and the last thing i will say jim in axios has a great piece about

how to handle the next two days and on tuesday in lar in terms of keeping your sanity. >> let me go further into this breaking news report from axios. when asked for comment the trump campaign's communication director said that this is nothing but people trying to create doubt about a trump victory. but again the headline from this, chuck, the timing of the president saying that. if he says it before all of the votes are counted, because we're saying it on the lower part of a screen. it looks like victory if he is ahead, what does that say to you? >> it says that it is unacceptable. there is few things that make it all stand out and that is our peaceful turn over and reaction of power. alex you have so well covered this, this weekend, last

weekend, through the campaign about how these states, many of which, will not start counting these millions and millions of votes, over 90 million votes in some of these across the country that will not start counting until after election day. we can't get sucked into too much of this. someone saying something stupid, bless his heart. >> i don't know if you heard vaughn hilliard. he made a very good point that other polling places in western states, they close a full two hours after previous states in the east coast have closed their polling. what kind of worries do you have about effects that if it looks like things are ahead on election day, if the president close out to close down early, that will have a trickle down

effect? >> and i would agree with that in the western states for sure. we have seen those, i always worry about folks still standing in line. we have all seen what happens in states like arizona where they move to more vote by mail places. in the primary four years ago people were in line four, six, and eight hours. always of a sudden trump has won, you heard that. it's horrible. >> give me your gauge on the polls right now. it makes you confident in particular. >> i think min with their head on straight is they blew it all of the time. i would rather be up, nationally

and in some of the battleground state that's joe biden is. i think, i understand that we're all emotionally scarred. i understand that. we can't be paralyzed by an analytical manner. it is just so different than 2016. if nothing else the day before, two days before the election in 2016 hillary was up four points, biden up ten. ten is not right, it's eight, it's 6, it's five, it's not trump up by 10. so i think there is also common sense here. the difference between now and four years ago is that trump has a record and the whole point we say we like what you have done, we don't like what you have done. trump can say whatever he wants he had done an abysmal job. it is enough to hand joe biden

adid sigh sieve vk tire. -- dive test let's go to josh, joining me on the phone. new developments, two days before election day. what do you know, josh? uncle well, this is playing out a dispute amid the coronavirus team. some doctors aren't even speaking to each other any more. the russian government linked over the weekend saying that covid-19 had been deadly, but stressed many lives have been lost to the shut-down. what we have heard from dr. atlas, the fact that he gave this interview to a russian

government-linked media, in fact, deemed by the justice department, trump's justice department to be required to register under the foreign agent registration act, because of the link to the kremlin. we have criticism over why exactly a top white house doctor was giving interviews to a russian propaganda outlet. he did the interview, unaware of that. he regrets doing the interview, and apologies for allowing himself to be taken advantage of. he apologizes to the community working hard to defend us. and asked for the white house for a comment, they are pointing to the tweet. it is important to note that it

has has become clear. 50 and foremost listening to dr. anthony fauci does. and -- josh, i have to tell you, you have come in and out, clearly on the move in this phone call. we thank you for bringing it to us. we got the gift. before i let you guys o. chuck, you first? >> an utter example of one failure after another. he can't keep the american people strarkts now his people are giving interviews to russian propagand a. >> i took a long walk in washington yesterday, passing all the biden/harris lawn signs,

i got to one that said, dr. fauci, we love you, hang on another day and a half. we will listen to every word you say. >> we listen to every word you say. thank you so much. got to get this n florida, neck and neck in the polls with two days left. democrats are looking to women vote rz to push the biden campaign to victory. women vote florida, welcome to you. well done on your organization, called on 50,000 women to sign a pledge to vote in this elec, how is that pledge going, why is that important to you? >> it is going fantastic. women vote florida came together early in 2020. because we noted there were a lot of spaces where women across

our differences, making sure that women turn out in this upcoming election. >> if you look at floridian, 8 million who have already voted. up 43% from 2016. early voters 43% were women. >> we are feeling energized. i have looked at spread sheets for day, what we see in florida, people are voting, across every demographic. especially women. women are 55% vote turn-out right now. we are ecstatic. we stand on the side of democracy, we think that the more who vote, the better it is for all americans. especially for women. and the issues that matter most for us.

>> black voters were key to biden, especially voters of color, how important the black and latino voters are in this elec. >> like i said, diverse electorate is the difference of four more years of which has put women's lives in jeopardy. women are worried about the education their kids. women are worried about the idea that economy is in tum ult, they are trying to gut the affordable care act. women being a woman will be a pre-existing condition, we are worried about the climate that

will be here for the children in the future. when i think of myself, as a black woman, racial justice and violence that is occurring in this country against black and brown bodies, this president's insistence of stoking the flames of racism and division. women are done. women are disgusted on what is going on in the country, they will be voting on tuesday. >> rocsi nelson, thanks for telling like it is. that is a wrap for me. thank you for watching, get out there and vote. my colleague is up next. with senator ted cruz of texas, making five campaign stops on behalf of the president. how does he see the election going? going? that is next. in the bay area, we believe in science.

traffic and air pollution will be even worse after the pandemic. that's why we support measure rr to keep caltrain running. which is at risk of shutdown because of the crisis.

to keep millions of cars off our roads, to reduce air pollution and fight climate change. and measure rr helps essential workers like me get to work and keep our communities healthy. relieve traffic. reduce pollution. rescue caltrain. [all] yes on measure rr.

good afternoon, everybody, two days to go, two big events, we are watching, joe biden is about to speak in philadelphia. president trump is speaking in iowa at a campaign rally. vps down south, kamala harris, in georgia. and mike pence was there earlier this morning. and all the candidates holding 12 events