from msnbc, decision 2020, election night. live from democracy plaza, here now are rachel maddow and brian williams. >> well, good evening, and this is it. almost. this is the final push. the breathless suspense, the crippling anxiety should be over in just a few days. in the meantime, both campaigns, both candidates, going all-out on this last sunday before election day. as the remainder of this race can now be measured in hours,

not days. early voting has been nothing short of colossal and record-shattering. so far. 93 million americans have cast their ballots. and we expect that figure to get nudged over the 100 million mark when this weekend's final tallies are all in. and complete. brian williams here at our nbc news global headquarters in new york. coming to you from or newly expanded studio facilities. as these times require. of course, we enter the homestretch of a presidential election that has tested the resilience of our democracy and the resilience of our people in ways not seen or required in modern history. in large part, of course, because we are in the midst of an uncontrolled pandemic. that the rate of half a million new cases per week now. the death toll now approaching 230,000 souls in our country. and i have it on good authority that somewhere in this cavernous

studio complex is my friend, rachel maddow. rachel, come in. i don't even know if you can see me. can you see me waving out here? >> yes. there you are. i tweaked my prescription, but a week ago i would not have been able to see few yyou. look at you. you're the size of an ant. >> i'm like, right next door. >> god bless you, brian. over at this end fof our supersized studio, i'm here at this wide distance, nicolle wallace and joy reid, of course. it's great to be here with you. our network's mvp, steve kornacki is at the board with the latest polling tonight. we're getting close to a time when polling is almost weird given it is basically a prediction of what will happen and that thing that will happen is already considerably under way. as brian mentioned, we are closing in on nearly 100 million american votes already cast. today, president trump held rallies in five states. he will do at least another five

tomorrow. former vice president joe biden spent the day barn storming pennsylvania including a soles to the polls event. we're used to reporting every four years, sometimes every two years, on souls to the polls. big early vote mobilizations mostly by african-american churches on the last sunday before election day. souls to the polls efforts hampered this year by the pandemic. but also if we're being honest, by republican legislatures targeting it and trying to end sunday early voting anywhere they can. former vice president biden will be in ohio tomorrow. this weekend, he hit the trail with former president obama. they were in michigan together for their first joint event of the campaign. president obama will be back out there tomorrow. making biden campaign stops in georgia and in florida. in terms of where the campaigns think they are, where they need to direct their firepower, you should know, that senator kamala harris is in georgia today. she will be in pennsylvania tomorrow. but she was in texas all day

friday. >> texas, indeed, one of several states where the number of early votes cast has already blown past the total number of votes cast in texas in all of 2016. texas also where a caravan of trump supporters surrounded the biden campaign bus outside austin yesterday. forced it to go down a 20 mile an hour crawl on the interstate. they were apparently trying to stop the bus altogether. that incident is now the subject of an fbi investigation, all its own. texas also the center of a late breaking legal battle over voting locations. in harris county where because of the pandemic voters were allowed to drive up and drop their ballots, voting from their cars. republicans want to throw out nearly 127,000 ballots cast at those drive-through locations. the all-republican texas supreme court blocked the republicans'

efforts to throw out the ballots in state court. republicans are now still at it. they kicked it up to federal court where a judge has set a hearing for tomorrow on election eve. one more reminder of the obstacle course that voters have faced this year. starting with the kneecapping of our postal service as millions of us have cast votes by mail. and with that, let's introduce our team. with us tonight, of course, our msnbc political experts and analysts. of course, our team of correspondents who have fanned out across the battleground states of this country. but before we do anything else, let's check in with steve kornacki at the big board, and, steve, there is but one question on this sunday night, and that is where does this race stand? >> well, let's pick it up right there, brian. we have a brand-new nbc/"wall street journal" national poll two days before the election. joe biden nationally in our

final poll with a ten-point advantage over donald trump, 5 2 52%-42%. let's show you the average of national polls out there, a bit closer, 7 1/2 points. on average, biden over trump in the national polling. of course, as we saw? 2016, this is about the electoral college. not necessarily the popular vote. there's been talk certainly that trump could lose the popular vote by a significantly larger margin in 2020 and still find a path through the electoral college. so let's look at some of the key states here. first of all, these big three, michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin. these were trump's narrowest battleground wins in 2016. these are all democratic states going back to the 1980s that trump flipped for the first time in three decades, and these are also the three battleground states. two days before the election where joe biden has his largest leads. these are the polling averages. that's what you're looking at here for these three states.

michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin. also, some other late polling to tell you about here from critical states coming out today. there's this from florida. abc/"washington post" poll. this a must-win state for the president. he leads in this poll, at least, by two points. also from iowa, a smaller state, but one that moved dramatically toward trump in 2016. this showing late movement or at least suggesting late movement in iowa, a seven-point lead for trump. he has not done that well in any iowa polling we've seen this fall. that's a "des moines register" poll. let's just show you what this would mean when it comes to that battle for 270. just to give you a sense of this map two days before the election. if this polling we're seeing, just showing you, is on to something, let's say, for instance, iowa, if trump were two get iowa, that's a small gain for him in the electoral college there. demographically, though, you're talking about blue-collar rural white voters, midwest. how about ohio, that's another state that like iowa swung

dramatically toward trump in 2016. if, and this is a big if, but if there is that late movement in iowa, that polling is suggesting, could that be happening in ohio, too, enough to give that to the president? let's put that red right now to give you a sense of the scenario. let's say what if the late polling in florida is vigt thri abc/"washington post" poll, and trump gets florida so, if what happens what are the implications for the electoral college map? again, the first place that you look are these three, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania. we just showed you the numbers there and the president has to win one of these states because if he current, biden gets all three, biden goes over 270. so the first thing is, you look at these three states, trump's got to find a win. pennsylvania's the biggest. pennsylvania's the closest. the trump campaign talks a lot about attention. let's say trump gets it, it is essentially a must-win state for him. what else then?

trump would also have to sweep the southeast. if he got florida, he still has to worry about north carolina and georgia. he has different demographic challenges in north carolina, in georgia, than he does in florida. it is is not automatic that if donald trump wins florida he's going to get north carolina, he's going to get georgia. that won't automatically happen, but for trump to get to 270, he has to make that happen. he has to get those states. he obviously has to get texas. and if he were to do that, that's a lot here, get pennsylvania, get these two winnable midwest states, sweep the south and the southeast, then you'd be talking about potentially a race coming down. would it be arizona? keep in mind, too, there is this congressional district in nebraska that democrats are very optimistic about. urnt under this fscenario, if biden would get arizona, even after not flipping any states in the souths that would still be enough for biden. if trump were to get it in that

scenario, trump might get over 7 7 70 270. the president is running against the odds in the midwest. has to win one of these states. has to sweep all of these states we just went through here then you get out to arizona, he's been trailing in the polling in arizona, he'd have to have late momentum there as well. that is what it would take to get him over 270. >> steve kornacki, when you look at the polling, not just in terms of absolute values, but in terms of the quality of the various polls that are being done, i'm starting to think about this because that iowa poll in 2016 which also said at this time in 2016 that trump was up 7, it surprised people, he ended up winning iowa by 9. people saw that as a great indicator that wasn't being picked up on by other pollsters in the terms of the midwest. when you look at the polling that's out there, look at the map and how the campaigns are doing, is there a state that you're keeping an eye on that might be a source of surprise, that might be something where the polling necessarily shouldn't be expected to be

predictive, or where you think there might be late shifts that wouldn't be picked up in the polling we've seen so far? >> yeah, there is one state, we just ran through this scenario where we say, hey, if a bunch of things all broke trump's way, he could make this sort of comedown to arizona and we mentioned that trump trails in the arizona polling so let's say he didn't get arizona. i will tell you there is one state that went blue in 2016 that the trump folks have talked about for 2020 that i think got to keep an eye on on election night. that is the state of nevada. and i say that because this is a state where there's a trend here now going back a few elections in the republican direction. it's a state trump narrowly missed in in 2016. about 2 1/2 points. a state with a lot of -- you talk about trump's base, blue-collar, rural white voters, demographically, there's a lot of that in nevada. and i think, again, if you talk about, iowa and nevada are very different states, but if there's rural blue-collar white votes

surging to trump at the end, that's a huge if, a huge if, if there is, keep an eye on nevada and electoral college implications of that potentially in a scenario like this could replace arizona for trump. i would keep an eye on nevada. >> fascinating. thank you. >> steve, thanks, i'm not sure we've done anything to allay anxiety which may be a pharmacological matter at this point. not anything our coverage can offer. the president, as we said, about to hold his fourth rally of the day. this one in rome, georgia. just minutes from now. that is where we find nbc news correspondent priscilla thompson. also with us, ali velshi covering the biden campaign in philly tonight. ali, you start things off. >> reporter: all right. we are in city center, philadelphia, which is where i'm going to be all the way through the election. you can see a lot of police behind me. lot of national guard around me. that's for a couple reasons. this is one of those cities that has been preparing for unrest.

not necessarily anticipating it but preparing for unrest. it was a city that saw a lot of unrest in the protests after george floyd. but as yuou know, we had a killing of a man in west philadelphia on monday. that has resulted in some unrest in the city as well. but as steve was saying, this thing's going to come down to pennsylvania. we are all going to be talking a lot on tuesday night and quite possibly wednesday night, thursday night and friday night because there's some ballots in pennsylvania that are not going to be counted until friday. we got a story of two populations in this state. you got people in philadelphia, pittsburgh, the urban centers, they are going to vote overwhelmingly for joe biden. they always vote democratic. the issue is how many of those people will come out. will the strong biden supporters, will they eclipse the hillary clinton numbers in 2016? will this look more like the turnout for barack obama before that? will they eclipse the trump supporters, the blue-collar

non-college-educated voters that steve was just talking about? so pennsylvania's full of that, right? we've got the cities, we've got the collar counties around philadelphia, the suburbs, where trump's been talking to white suburban women. these are going to go largely, they're going to break for joe biden. that's the expectation, they're going to be democratic. but donald trump has for the last couple of weeks been going on about this fracking idea. he's misrepresented joe biden's position here. but in western pennsylvania, i was in luzern county yesterday, points west of that toward the western end of the state fracking is a really big deal. we've seen late breaking polling donald trump may be narrowing the gap there. both donald trump and joe biden have been in pennsylvania a lot. they're going to be. joe biden was just here today. listen to what he said. >> we have a president who's given up. i'll never give up, nor will america, will never wave the flag of surrender. we're going to beat this virus. we're going to get it under control. truth is, to beat the virus, we

first got to beat donald trump. he's the virus. >> reporter: all right. this is a state where there's a lot of court cases about mail-in ballots. there is a ruling that says ballots that arrive, that are postmarked by election day and arrive by friday, can be counted on friday. so if it is close here, remember, donald trump won here in 2016 by 44,000 votes. .7 of a percent. if it's close here, we might not have a final decision until friday. brian? >> ali velshi, center city, philadelphia. great place to be. even during an election year. ali, thank you very much. to priscilla thompson, rome, georgia, covering the president's long day's journey and tonight. priscilla? >> reporter: brian, you can tell a lot about a campaign based on where the candidate is spending their time. and the fact that donald trump is about to touch down in georgia this close to an

election is certainly sending a message. donald trump has campaigned in this state three times since late september, and to put this into context, in 2016 after he became the republican nominee, donald trump did not campaign in this state a single time, and he still won it by five points. and so that is what we're looking at on the ground here in georgia. a string of recent polls out of this state show a very tight race with joe biden either tied with the president or beating him. although, within the margin of error. this is a state that has not voted for a democrat for president since the early '90s. and i talked to some of the trump supporters who are here today who waited in line for hours in the cold to hear the president speak tonight. and i asked them what do you make of those poll numbers? and folks here tell me that there is a silent majority of trump supporters on the ground that are not being counted and reflected in those polls. and i should point out we're in northwest georgia. this is a conservative bastion.

the picture looks far differently if you talk to voters in those suburbs outside of atlanta. brian? >> priscilla, thank you for that. always fascinated at campaign playlists this time of year, for those of you who recognize the unmistakable voice of michael stipe in the background, that is, indeed, the r.e.m. classic "everybody hurts." interesting choice during an uncontrolled pandemic. with that, rachel, over to you. >> also, i was googling the lyrics while we were hearing that at the end, yes, it's -- also, countdown three, two, one, to r.e.m. suing him from stopping him to playing it. anyway, i have no inside information on the subject. the two campaigns are each competing to win in all the same swing states, of course, but boy, howdy, are they approaching it differently. republican efforts to limit the counting of likely democratic ballots, to limit the counting of ballots broadly in the expectation that the smaller the vote is the better republicans

do, republicans' time-worn efforts to make it difficult to vote, for all those same reasons. those perennial republican political, and legal strategiie seem to have a new counterpart this year in the era of twrurum. i struggle with exactly tow to describe this. the best phrase i can come up with is is these physical shows of force by trump supporters, which we have seen end sodica y ical episodically over the late stages of the campaign but had a rush of them this weekend. our colleague, chris hayes, joins us to talk about what that's looked like around the country in the final hours of this campaign. chris. >> rachel, great to see you. at this point, it's fair to say the trump campaign has run out of people to persuade. 100 million votes banked. election day on tuesday. not a lot of persuasion happening, right? typically at this point in the campaign both sides need turnout. the trump campaign has another set of tactics they've employed along with the gop and rnc, which is intimidation,

suppression and litigation. you have a president, for instance, celebrating this really harrowing, dangerous display brian mentioned earlier. it's a bunch of his supporters on a highway in texas who got in their cars, slowed down a biden campaign bus that was traveling through texas on the highway, sometimes to just 20 miles an hour. if you've been behind the car of someone doing that, you know that's really, really unnerving. the video of the incident we're playing now shows one of the trump supporters colliding with another vehicle, attempting to sort of bump into it, it would appear, and that vehicle reportedly being driven by a biden campaign staffer. 911 was called by people inside the bus and tonight, the fbi has confirmed to nbc news it is investigating that incident. then last night the president tweets out a video of that incident adding "i love texas." immediately after the bus was surrounded, the biden campaign canceled several e sent vents is because of safety concerns. think about that for a second. that was not the last of those. today, another democratic event in georgia was canceled around rome, where the president is

tonight. the floyd county democratic party writing on their site, "we have been informed that a large militia presence is expect in rome today due to trump's visit. additionally, we are not able to secure police presence for our event because of the airport rally." so we've already had a sort of remarkably smooth, i would say, early voting period in which you have a record 93 million americans who cast their votes. we should note this, it's important people hear this as they're thinking about election day and their decisions, it's gone on largely without incident. there's been lines and been some headaches, for sure, and that should be the baseline expectation for everyone for the vast majority of election day. there is, however, this effort by the trump campaign to recruit poll watchers, but the incident on the texas highway, trump supporters trying to yell and scare people near polls, that is a real threat to the administration of free and fair elections and hopefully that will not be and has not been what the vast majority of americans have experienced as they vote. there is, of course, as you

mentioned also one other effort by the trump campaign to influence the election. that, of course, a mask litigation effort which reaches new heights of absurdity every day. the most egregious, really jaw-dropping piece of legislation. anti-democratic lawsuit in texas where republicans as brian mentioned want to just throw out, just discord, light on fire, the legally cast ballots of over 126,000 people in harris county. those societies were cast in dro drive-through voting facilities set up because the pandemic is raging through the country. the county said the drive-throughs were approved by the texas secretary of state's office and officials because we're in the middle of a pandem pandemic. none of the voters dud errs did thing wrong. they're republicans too. republican, democr republicans, though, think the ballots skew democratic so they want them along with any legitimate republican votes in there just voided. luckily today the texas state supreme court swiftly rejected that effort. there's still a case before federal court which should not

have much of a chance but we will see. but this is now the closing strategy of trump and the republican party and trump's been very forthright about the courts and litigation as a kind of desperate hail mary as the clock runs down. >> intimidation, suppression, and litigation, i feel like you and i for years have covered the litigation part of it, and a little bit of the suppression part of it because we've been able to document, report on that over the course of our careers in broadcasting. the intimidation stuff kicking up in this way that seems to be sort of rolling down a hill feels like we're covering some other country. my friend, chris, thank you so much. i want to turn now to my colleagues, joy reid and nicolle wall loss with me in the studio. when we look at the lay of the land, numbers wise from steve kornacki, when we hear chris talk about how president trump is going about trying to win this election, you see how these two candidates are doing, nicolle, you were saying the president just tweeted about the fbi investigation. >> yes, while chris hayes was talking, at 8:18 p.m. eastern,

trump tweeted that the people under investigation now by his own fbi are patriots who did nothing wrong. so, again, i think one of the -- >> so he's telling the fbi what to conclude in that investigation. >> correct. prejudging an investigation that's now been undertaken by the executive branch he leads. i think that what's so interesting, though, i mean, look, here's the -- here's the thing about being on presidential campaigns by the sunday night. no one knows jack squat. and the reason it's so easy to get all your sources to call you back is because no one knows who knows something. so everybody calls you back. then someone calls you back when you're still on the phone with the other person that calls you back. they don't know anything. they want to know what the next person calling you -- pick him up and call me back after. no one knows anything. both campaigns have internal tracks. i have a sense from talking to -- >> say what internal tracks are. >> internal tracks are the overnight polls, they're like ratings for presidential campaigns. they're sort of -- they're really targeted and each campaign kind of knows where their vote is better than any news organization.

>> and they're private. these are not publicly available. >> they're private. the trump folks, you know, who knows who does them. right? but four years ago, i had heard what their tracks were. they had the campaign doing very well in michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin. some of the places where they -- so their tracks have this outsized importance -- the important -- then the biden t m team, oddly, feels more optimistic about north carolina and georgia than they do florida. so i have a sense that both campai campaigns' overnight tracks see florida really tight. >> yeah. >> i'll say this, though, even the rosiest data coming to the trump campaign doesn't get trump to 270. so i think the reason you're seeing all these tactics, the reason you're seeing this reporting in axios that the president i think has now knocked down about court cases, is that even the rosiest sort of polling that the trump campaign does where they think they can

find -- doesn't get him over. >> pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan, confidence that they had based on their tracking in 2016, do we know -- are your sources telling you anything about that for 2020? >> i don't think the -- look, i didn't see their overnight tracks. i do not think the trump campaign sees themselves ahead of joe biden right now in those three states. >> and if they were confident, i think that tracks with, first of all, republicans that i talked to in florida feel better than democrats that i talked to in florida. i will say that. that even republicans who are not big fans of trump look at the fact that the turnout among pro-trump-leaning hispanics is higher than the turnout among biden-leaning hispanics. and that you're also seeing weak turnout, particularly, you know, in very heavily black precincts in south florida, places like miami-dade are underperforming right now. and so democrats that i talked to down there are saying, they're really now leaning into

election day because there are -- >> they need to. >> i think jonathan martin has one out that talks about 30% of black voters in that state, but also really up to 40% overall of black voters not trusting the system, worried about the mail, and planning to vote on election day. >> and worried about early in-person voting, too. >> correct. >> they want to vote on the day. >> they want to vote on the day. by the way, for african-american voters, voting on election day is actually a thing, like, a lot of voters, like my mom, there's a whole sort of magic to the get dressed up -- >> ritual. >> -- go take your kids. there was a ritual to vote on election day. african-american and latino voters tend to be late voters. they tend to vote on election day or souls to the polls sunday. it will be interesting to see what happened today because in florida this was souls to the polls sunday. vy i have a friend that was working souls to the polls. the warlordism you're seeing out of trump people tells me they don't feel good because if you're blocking new jersey highways -- >> yeah. >> and you're in texas trying to block people from getting down

the street, that's not a winning move. that's a straight intimidation move. it's a bullying move. >> it's a desperate move. >> and it's desperate. and it's also -- this is also what i'm hearing from a lot -- it's pissing people off. particularly voters of color. it's motivating people to want to vote more. i definitely heard that out of a former elected official friend in georgia that black voters in georgia see all of this and it's all john lewis style good trouble motivation. >> all right. we've got much more ahead here tonight. this is going to be a busy few hours here tonight. coming up right on the other side of the break, we've got a live report from north carolina where there's been some real drama over the last couple of days. stay with us. you're clearly someone... ...who takes care of yourself. so when it comes to screening for colon cancer, don't wait.

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it's very important that everyone be able to vote and without any hindrance, without any intimidation, without any obstacles. and we want to preserve everyone's right to be able to be heard through their vote this election. >> kamala harris in north carolina late today where early voting ended late today. donald trump was also in north carolina today. he held his third rally of the day in hickory. over 4 million north carolinians

have voted early. either by mail or in person. in graham, north carolina, yesterday, in alamants county a peaceful rally to get out the vote led to a standoff and confrontation with local police. officials say organizers did not have a permit to block roadways. failed to heed a five-minute dispersal order. police then unleashed pepper spray while telling the crowd to leave the area. and they did so on adults and children. nbc news reporting at least eight people were arrested. trymaine lee is with us right now with more tonight from raleigh, north carolina. trymaine, since joy was the first to invoke john lewis, i'm tempted to say the more things change, the more they remain the same. and like pepper spray, imagery is really powerful stuff. especially right now.

>> reporter: that's right, when you see those scenes, it's that kind of old-school voter intimidation and harassment. but this is a state with a long history of voter suppression and voter intimidation. let's not forget in recent years the supreme court said that the state had acted with surgical precision aimed at disenfranchising black voters. so while in this state they're earn joying record levels of early voting. 95% of votes cast of all 2016. black folks who mail in their ballots are four times more likely to have those ballots rejected than whites. right? for more context in terms of not just suppression but voter turnout also, in 2016 donald trump won this state by 173,000 votes. right? but 170,000 black voters who voted in 2012 did not show up for 2016. and so what we see, the incident in graham, right, that kind of physical old-school voter intimidation. then you have the shaving off of a few ballots here and some intimidation there and we see all across the state this effort to get black folks off of the

sidelines and back in the game. they're met with hurdle after hurdle. none of this is new. you talk about, joy mentioned that good trouble, black voters i've talked to all across the country who said in 2016 they felt they didn't have a dog in the fight, didn't like hillary clinton, you know, they didn't want to choose between two evils as they said. they said after four years of winking and nodding of white supremacists, all the violence, donald trump being donald trump, it's time for a change. these techniques, these tactics we've seen time and again, that old playbook, seems to be invigorating voters on the ground. >> as you said, sadly, none of this is new. trymaine lee, thanks. >> as democrats learned in 2008 and 2012 when they won and 2016 when they did not win, one of the most important factors in the outcome of a presidential election in this country is voter turnout among african-americans, specifically. let's go back to steve kornacki now, steve, what do we know now about where african-american voter turnout stands so far this year? it's a year like no other in

terms of all the early vote, all the vote-by-mail. what can we tell from the numbers that we do have? >> yeah, it is tough to tell right now because i think a lot of this is to be determined. you mentioned souls to the polls today and election day. we can stercertainly show you, you're talking about north carolina with trymaine. here's a stat. barack obama, of course, carried the state in 2008. narrowly missed in 2012. then hillary clinton lost in 2016. the black voter turnout rate in 2012 when barack obama nearly won north carolina was 75%. when hillary clinton lost by 3 1/2 points, it fell to 66%. so that's one thing in north carolina for joe biden to have a chance here, they want to get back up. democrats do, to that 75% level. then where else can the black vote potentially make a huge difference for democrats on election day? three states in particular. georgia, we're talking about the polls being very close in georgia. the atlanta metro area. there is a fast growing, increasingly diverse population

in that area where democrats have been getting bigger and bigger margins. almost enough for stacey abrams two years ago. joe biden hopes it's enough for him. the other two states here, wisconsin and michigan. again, the margins here statewide, it was 11,000 votes in the entire state of michigan in 2016. that was donald trump's winning margin. democrats think they can do a lot better in detroit, in particular. especially with black voters. and in wisconsin the black voter turnout rate fell between '12 and '16, 2012 and digits. if you can get democrats back to that turnout level that they got in 2012, 2008, that, aleen, could flip wisconsin. >> steve, joy was saying anecdotally what she's hearing from people in florida is that they're worried an the democratic side about black voter turnout in florida, specifically in south florida. i've been hearing that anecdotally as well. is that -- is there support for that in the numbers we do have? >> there is, although, again, i

caution with all the early voting data, there is the question here of how much is -- florida especially, you talk about souls to the polls, potentially changing the numbers you goiare going to see in the early voting. again, the question of same day, folks who turn out on election day who are not accounted for in the data yet versus what we're seeing in the early vote. >> steve kornacki. let's bring into the conversation, reverend al sharpton. rev, good to see you, thank you for being with us. >> thank you. >> we're talking about the all-important african-american vote and talking about as steve was doing circling individual states on the map, looking at individual parts of the state wrs tstates where the black voter turnout is going to be determinative of that state and likely of the election. part of me is inspired and excited and moved by that and part of me feels like that's a bull's-eye in terms of this sort of intimidation that we're seeing, the suppression efforts that we're seeing, the litigation we're already seeing threatened by the president

today. if -- i feel like black voters have had such -- have had to go through it. have had to go through the wars for voting and for them to be critical up against an opponent, most of them are going to vote for trump's opponent, for them to be up against it with a campaign who's planning on contesting it this way, it just feels -- feels like a lot of dry tinder to me. >> i think that the real challenge is that we vote late and we don't trust mailing. we don't really do a lot of early voting, particularly in some of the states that we're talking about. and i think that if we underestimate the passion that a lot of blacks feel, in terms of what has happened this year with george floyd and breonna taylor and others, now we're reminded with wallace being killed just last week, a mentally challenged shooting to death in pennsylvania which is critical,

i think that there are all the elements there for a big turnout. i think joe biden and kamala harris were smart. they released today the photo of the meeting with george floyd's family and attorney crump and i before the funeral, showing he's been involved in these issues, contrasting donald trump who's running law and order. so i believe if they are not the real efforts of suppression that we can see a large vote come out and they have to prepare the voters, though, that they're going to try to put impediments in your way and you must be more determined, you must not leave the polls. that's their challenge. and not have the distractions. i mean, rachel, when you see them go get rappers who never stood up for any issue at all, it's all right to be a rapper. many rappers have been socially involved. the rappers that donald trump rolled out hasn't stood up for trayvon or george floyd. they all of a sudden discover politics with donald trump. so that's not going to work. we may be many things, stupid is

not one of them. but i think that you got to prepare people if they're going to try impediments like we saw in north carolina. >> rev, i want to dig into that a little bit more. even in my neighborhood, i live in the suburbs of d.c. it's a very bideny neighborhood, heavily black, heavily southeast asian, it's very mixed but it's heavily black. there were trump caravans two blocks from my house. there's no reason to bring a trump caravan to that area. there's no trump voters hardly there. it felt like intimidation. we're seeing what happened in north carolina where police pepper sprayed little kids that were kneeling in front of the courthouse. the aggression by police against voters who were mixing in a vote to the polls but also another case of police brutality and obviously what happened in philly with walter wallace. i wonder if you think that the dynamic of intimidation, if the dynamic of intimidation, as you're hearing, is motivating? i'm hearing fears that these marches and what people are

seeing might actually hurt biden with white voters who see that on tv and go, oh, you know, that's going to send me toward trump, and i'm also hearing, you know, anxiety about people who are angry when they see it and much more determined to vote. what are you hear iing? >> u talked to people who work with national action network in north carolina and philly today because of wallace. aisle he i'm hearing a lot of people are angry that maybe we're not angry and passionate. and it's driving them to come out. i've always said to politicians that blacks vote in big numbers when they're proud, i.e., barack obama, or they're angry, and both of them drive big turnouts. well, we have some pride in kamala harris, but we have a lot of anger, and i think what has happened with north carolina happening, it triggers back in our mind 8 minutes, 41 seconds, george floyd. yeah, we need to go vote about it. and i'll only say to people that the looting and the violence is

what helps trump. everybody that throws a brick is pulling a lever for trump because he can then play on law and order. when you're tear gassing or pepper spraying nonviolent protesters, you're not helping trump at all. i think you're energizing a lot of blacks to come out and vote and vote against him. >> reverend al sharpton, host of "politicsnation" on msnbc. founder of the national action network. rev, it's great to have you here with us, my friend. >> thank you. >> thank you. we'll say seeing tish james do an interview this weekend on msnbc, the new york state attorney general, my parents, avid msnbc viewers that came over to see me and susan do some halloween stuff on saturday, they said, this tisha james, you know what she said? i said, she says a lot of great stuff. said, nope. she said, if you are in line and somebody's trying to intimidate you or get you out of that line or wear you down, you stay there with dignity and defiance. >> yeah. >> my mother must have said dignity and defiance 17 times

over the course of the night. my mother is a canadian emigre who lives in california. she's not the person who's the bull's-eye for this stuff. >> you know what i'm most haunted by, we sat here and covered the two conventions, bizarre-o debates, barack obama's event in philadelphia that was not supposed to have any press coverage, we were the pool. it was available to everyone. it was a teeny tiny event. >> yeah. >> african-american men. he spoke as a community organiz organizer. we dipped into it. i was so haunted by it. he's begging them to vote, not give up on the country. it was reminiscent of doc rivers after the brutality and violence this summer. to have a window into the hellscape is still believing enough in our politics to participate at all and then to go out and try to participate and be harassed and be intimidated and be brutalized -- your neighborhood, is a skaecard

scab on this country right now in real time. >> you have to remember there's a lot of stories about the rappers coming out for trump and the fear you're going to have, you know, sort of a wave of black male voters going toward donald trump. we just need to keep -- be realistic here. the vast majority of black men who vote and come out to vote are going to vote for joe biden. there is a small percentage of african-american men, of latino men, there are latino men in the proud boys. there are men for whom the patriot patriarchy has an attraction. i think it was bree newsom said every man doesn't want to get rid of the patriarchy, some want a piece of it. there are men of color who voted against hillary clinton, did not like the idea of having a woman president. did not like -- still had the same memes about her that white men had and there are black working-class men who identify even with some of the

anti-immigrant positions there. so there are going to be -- let's be realistic here. donald trump has no shot at getting a significant share of black male voters. aisle goi 50i i'm going to defend black men on this. the vast majority. i got to tell you, i don't know a single black man who's going to vote for trump and if they did who would tell us about it. they will not be at the cookout. they can't be in the car and get a plate at the cookout in the car if they vote for him. they know that. even if they vote for him, they're not going to tell their mamas. promise. >> all right. there is one state whose name we repeat like a creepy incantation come election day. we have a live report from florida. florida. florida. in just a moment. stay with us. did you know that 70% of the soils

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we know that connection is more important than ever. and we're here to help, when you're ready to switch. call 1-800-t-mobile or go to t- mobile. com/ 55. who's sujoe biden.rop 15? biden says, "every kid deserves a quality education and every family deserves to live in a safe, healthy community. that's why i support prop. 15." vote yes. schools and communities first is responsible for the contents of this ad. traffic and air pollution will be even worse after the pandemic. that's why we support measure rr to keep caltrain running. which is at risk of shutdown because of the crisis. to keep millions of cars off our roads, to reduce air pollution and fight climate change. and measure rr helps essential workers like me get to work and keep our communities healthy. relieve traffic. reduce pollution. rescue caltrain. [all] yes on measure rr. who's supkamala harris.5?

harris says, "a corporate tax loophole has allowed billions to be drained from our public schools and local communities. no more. i'm proud to support prop 15." vote yes. schools and communities first is responsible for the content of this ad. welcome back. rachel was talking about florida before the break. both trump and biden have been focused on florida during this final stretch of the campaign, "new york times"/siena college poll out today shows biden leading thump by three points in florida. that's within the margin of error. other polls are not being so generous to biden and have it the other way, in fact. tomorrow, president obama returns to south florida to campaign for joe biden. with us for more tonight, our veteran nbc news correspondent kerry sanders who's been talking to voters down in florida. hey, kerry.

>> reporter: hey, brian. well, the early voting in florida is now over. the only way anybody can vote before election day is if they do mail-in ballots and probably dropping them off because at this point, using the mail is not a good thing. florida, of course, is a prize. 29 electoral of course is a prize. the push president trump in to office. now, you see folks out there. we had some of the other -- i'm

a registered independent. and i have been for ten years. >> show of hands, who voted for trump in the last election. who is voting for trump in this up coming election. >> nobody. >> why? >> you put it simply, put your democracy back. >> i feel that he is a liar. he perpetuates hate. his whole platform is divide and conquer. i gave him a chance. and i feel that it needs to be somebody else. >> the florida voters have turned out in record numbers to vote, 62% of registered voters. that was before today's vote. in that critical group of 65 years or older have already

voted. we are zeroing in -- it's likely brian, it determines, it's interesting, down in tampa -- >> joinings n us now, mark, let start with you, i think for sort of the original injury for post election traumatic stress disorder, the fact that this applies to pennsylvania, it strikes me it's misguided. it's a tight race. what is the ground truth in florida. >> ground truth is that despite the polls showing biden up by

three and trump up by two. it looks like it will be a tight race. one advantage florida has over pennsylvania, we have had a number of cliff hanger elections going back 20 years that goesback to the bush v gore race, we have developed a system since that we can cast ballots early, by absentee, in the mail, and in person, on election day. they can be tab lated on election day, and on election night, we will have a good idea of 75% of the ballots have been counted instantly. we will know 3/4 of the vote of florida. we could have an early call, there's one exception, we have a history of razor thin election territory. if we need a recount territory, we will not have a call.

but it will give a clue to how other states will break. >> mark, you first and i have a question for lisa too. talk to me bymiami-dade, i'm hearing alarm about votes not getting in, about shenanigans in terms of the mail. and miami-dade and broward are deeply under performing. that's my question for you. >> broward is not under performing but miami-dade is, for the turn out for democrats is like 63% in broward, and miami-dade, it's lower than that. there's more democrats than republicans, they are staying close in early ballots cast. democrats had such a low rate. when you are talking about the ballot shenanigans, house, state democratic leader mcgee had filmed a bunch of ballots or someone that sent him a video of ballots sitting around in a mail facility now the postal service is allegedly investigating.

the state attorney's office is and the supervisor of election wants to make sure that all ballots are delivered. >> explain to us, florida is different from states out west, where it's a latino vote. in florida it's cuban based and why is that helpful to republicans. >> and don't forget the puerto ricans, this is just not going to be the same type of race as 2016. hillary clinton enjoyed tremendous support from the hispanic community. it's likely going to be closer to 2012. where you had barack obama getting 60% of the latino vote in the state. he still carried the state. that's what democrats are looking at. why, what happened? well, 2016, there were cuban, cuban american republican voters that were skeptical of donald trump, a lot of those voters,

joy, have come home. in addition, the president has camped out here for four years. he has made inroads to venezuelans and nick interrogatory wants, th -- youd to that disinformation that we have seen in spanish language and it's a complicated picture. >> as they say, we will be talking between now and then, mark, with politico, and our own alys alysiamanendez, we are just getting started, our coverage will start at the top of the hour after this break. your journey requires liberty mutual.

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♪ welcome back it's less than 36 hours before election day polls open on tuesday. this really is the final push and the 2020 election are, breathe, everybody. push. breathe. i'm rachel maddow, and brian williams is over the river, down the hall. president trump is holding a rally in this hour. it's his fourth of five today, he is due to still hold another

rally in another couple of hours in florida. he will be in north carolina and pennsylvania and wisconsin and michigan. joe biden was in pennsylvania today. and interestingly, he was expected to spend all day in pennsylvania tomorrow too. both biden and harris expected to could do multiple stops in pennsylvania tomorrow. but, the biden campaign then added one last minute trip to a different state. to ohio. he will be in cleveland ohio tomorrow on top of the trips to pennsylvania. >> interesting change to the schedule, that kind of last minute change, like biden adding an unplanned stop in ohio tomorrow, that reveals how the campaigns are meeting up at the end of the day. what is clear, in this election, like every other. it will come down to a handful of close battleground states. thely poll out today, finds

biden with a ten point lead nationally. as we always council people, however, these are state elections. one of the people who conducted the survey, a republican pollster said quote, this election is probably the most competitive ten point race i have seen. so, where else to go by steve kornacki at the big bored to explain what the competition looks like wr are it large. steve? >> yeah, written, it's an interesting way of putting it. let's take a look at the road to 270, and again, the battleground states that you see highlighted, they are all states that donald trump won in 2016. they are all states that trump is in trouble in to some degree right thousand. the polling is close, whether you are talking about texas or arizona, florida, georgia, north carolina, ohio. abi biden perhaps ahead more.

biden is ahead or close in every one of the states you see here, so it raises the possibility, what if biden wins them all. what if he wins texas by half a point. arizona by two. iowa by a point. what if it all breaks joe biden's way, this is what that would look like. and you have national polling at ten points, nine points, eight points, somewhere in that range. it's possible the states break to biden. it's the outer range of the edge. you can work your way in from there. let's will say, it doesn't all break for biden. let's say trump is able to hang on to states like iowa, and ohio, this westbound a 2008 situation. remember barack obama's eight-point national victory over john mccain. this might be a version of that where biden is able to get a florida, a north carolina, and an arizona, take the three midwest states again, there would not be much of a

difference in the national popular vote between the first land slide i showed you and abide enelectoral college victory. it looks like this, nor, would there be necessarily a huge national popular vote difference between this and say, something like this. this would be a very narrow joe biden victory. this would be biden getting wisconsin, and michigan, this would be the big surprise of election night. this would be trump getting pennsylvania, where he trails by about four or five points right now. otherwise, it would be trump shoring up the southeast states and biden getting arizona, arizona is optimistic about what happened in 2018 and demographic trends. they get a congressional district in omaha. trump only won it by three, college educated voters. it's the demographic that is moving. the polling we have seen has

been favorable to democrats. it's the scenario where the electoral college, biden is squeaking it out. in the national popular vote, he could be significantly ahead in a scenario like this. so, that is, i think, what they are getting at when he said that. nationally, biden, would not take much movement in a lot of states. we are talking two, three, point movement in the states to move the electoral college numbers around substantially. >> oh, steve kornacki, thank you, thank you very much. we want to now bring in nbc news correspondent, who is in grand rapids michigan, with among other things the latest on the legal battle of whether there should be the open carrying of the firearms in the polls in that state. that's where we are at as a country. what do you got? >> rachel, in the final hours, guns at the polls very much in the spotlight in this open carry state. we are waiting on a last minute

decision from michigan's supreme court. the secretary of state issued a ban on open carry at the polls. that was struck down by two lower courts. of course, this is a major concern to many as they prepare to head to the polls. a recent poll found that 73% do not want to see guns. i covered dualing rallies where groups on the left and right both came heavily armed, seen like raising stakes, at the end of the day. the folks on the front lines of this. they are the local clerks. the precinct chairs. the election workers. i have been talking to the folks and they are saying they are being put in a tough position, still waiting on an answer to this important question that will impact what election day looks like for them. take a listen to what they have to say on this issue.

>> it puts us right down to the wire because i can't, i don't know how it's going to all play out and bottom line is, there could be people coming in regardless just to see what they can get away with. >> my biggest concern really is that our voters are concerned. i worry about them being intimidated in to staying home, like you said, with voter tim addition. >> reporter: and fanning if flames of this, rachel, the president's repeated calls for his supporters to go and watch the polls closely, and his repeated attacks on the governor of the state that he very much needs to win. and of course, it's a particular concern to voters of color, a local group called justices for black lives is planning to have a poll buddy program, where they have volunteers escorting voters to the polls who need that extra support and a voter i spoke with, greg davis plans to bring a group of 30 voters on to their precinct to vote in solidarity. >> thank you for that reporting. that is fascinating. the fact that we live in a

country where you need to have a poll buddy system because people very well may be terrified by their fellow voters turning up with guns to try to intimidate them from turning out. other countries would right reports about this, something that we would never want to emulate in our own country. we used to be the kind of country that would police this around the world. now it's here at hope. there's one midwestern bell-weather county that gets a lot of of attention every four years diss fight it being in a solidly red state. it has weird predictive powers. it's indiana's vigo county, it's home to a large student population on the western border of indiana, between indiana and illinois. vigo county has the distinction of having sided with the winning presidential candidate in all presidential elections back to 1956. the town's 1,000 residents voted

for barack obama twice, in 2008 and 2012 and then switched to trump by a 15 point margin. for what it's worth, emerson college did a poll of vigo county, indiana, this year, and what they came up with is it's a tie, 48-48. joining us now is somebody who knows us a lot about indiana and his politics. he has been campaigning for the biden campaign. especially in michigan. he is the former mayor in south bend, and current surrogate for the biden/harris ticket. good to have you with us. >> sure thing, thanks for having me. >> how does vigo county go this year? >> i think we will get it, it is close. i have campaigned in vigo county in 2010 when i was running for state treasurer. didn't win the county and didn't win the state. the remarkable thing right now is that, you know, joe biden is ahead by so much national, but of course, it only counts if, if it comes through in the states

that are largely a game of inches. we have got an election to get through in the next 48 hours. afterwards, we have to ask ourselves serious questions about our democracy. about how that can be true. and you know, i think it's time for us to look at what it means for representative republic to be more representative. >> mr. mayor, when you have been out traveling around the country, talking to voters on behalf of the biden/harris campaign. we very much enjoyed all of your appearances on fox news. if there was a thing that you could go back in town now, if you could earn the biden/harris campaign an extra week and they can restitch some of the seams and go over, redouble their efforts in some areas or pump up work they have only been able to half do thus far. what are the places that you would go back and urge them to do more? >> well, again, you know, i think this campaign is ahead for

a reason. they have stuck to the issues that really matter most and are affecting people. what none of us could have guessed when the campaign began for joe biden or when i was running for the nomination, is that covid would come and in some ways change everything and in many ways accentuate what we have already seen. from the racial crisis, and the economy. it drive me nuts that donald trump takes equate a bit of credit for the obama/biden recovery. i the think that, you know, to his credit, joe biden and harris have been talking a lot about it. but i would always want to be talking about it more, because we can't let them get away with claiming to some kind of economic miracle. they inherited economic growth and slowed it down a bit. and i'm talking precovid.

post covid, on track to be the worst jobs president since hoover. we should drive it home. along with the vitally important message that joe biden is effectively delivering that really is what i think helps to bring a lot of people over the line, which is look, whether you are progressive or moderate or independent or republican that thinks for yourself, we need to come together and can't go on with the chaos. a nation divided the way donald trump has divided us will not be able to resolve any of on our usuals. health care, climate, racial justice. you name it. >> i too, mayor pete are a fan of your fox appearances, they are purpose. and the purpose is to drive the message you are delivering here. and our colleague talked about disinformation that has seeped in the minds of if florida vo r voters especially in the hispanic community. if you come back like an exploring and explain, here's what has sunk in.

there's viewers over there that believe that widen is a socialist or under the influence of socialists and will be one when in elected president. how do you dispell that in your very expert skilled way? what do you say? >> i think the most important thing is, to remind people that we have had decades to get to know joe biden. and now, when you are looking in the eyes of joe biden, you are not looking in the eyes of some kind of crazy radical. this is somebody who has made clear what he believes, and with whom the american people agree on issue after issue. from the fact that the wealthy incorporations need to pay their fair share and the idea of expanding, not taking away health care. now, let's remember, that you know, even the word socialism, which i think has very little power over people my age or younger, but if you grew up at the knee of a parent who fled

something had that is not at all what we would recognize as, let's say european socialism, but something that called itself socialism and was horribly oppress i ha oppressive in latin american, that word has power. we have to make it clear this is the recycling of a scare tactic that the right has used against all democratic candidates. moderate, progressive, and otherwise for decades and account, all the horrible things they say about us never come true. >> and hey, mayor pete, you know, what is a lot of people forget that the obama/biden ticket won indiana. biden was on that ticket too. so can you talk a little bit about, if biden is able to prevail, what will we look back and say that he did right in terms specifically of white voters? because, it does feel like we are seeing biden being able to

reproduce what obama did which was to win the highest share of white voters, i think, since jimmy carter. that's a combination of white working class voters and college educated white voters. what is difference, if he wins what will he have done right,particularly in your region, in the midwest. >> i think a lot of it is tonal, it's an idea that is strong among a lot of people here who say, look, i vet fote for the person. they vote for a person who has their best interests in heart. that comes across with joe biden. he has been clear on policy and what he will do on health care, taxes, the economy, covid, climate, we don't get in to policy rabbit holes. he spends a lot of energy talking about the soul of the nation. the idea that the presidency is not just about policy making. although it's hugely important. it's not just about management. we know we need more competent

management of the things like the crisis than we get out of the white house. it's about more than that. what do you do about the highest office in the land to call people to the highest values. i think he understands that. the other thing i think he understands that serves him well. the working class is multi-racial. his ability to connect with white working classes voters, talking about things like his experiences growing up in scranton, does not come up with his credibility with black voters that is a huge part of how he won the democratic nomination and thinking about how he is unified those messages in his campaign. you i think prefigures how his presidency will be positioned to do what obviously will be an urgent order of business, which is unifying the nation as we continue to face the reckoning over racial injustice. >> former mayor of south bend, indiana, democratic candidate, mayor pete. thank you for taking the time.

>> thanks for having me. >> it is not just the race at the the of the ticket to change the landscape of the country. and indeed the globe. there's really important senator races all over the country. a bunch of them are locked in a statistical dead heat. they are having a big impact on what the next president will be able to do. experts will be with us, stay with us. young thing like me? actually anyone 50 or over is at increased risk for shingles. the pain, the burning! my husband had to do everything for weeks. and the thing is, there's nothing you can do about it! shingles can be prevented. shingles can be whaaat? prevented. you can get vaccinated. frank! they have shingles vaccines! whaaat? that's what i said. we're taking you to the doctor. not going through that again.

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♪ we have to get joanie ernst elect willed, she is fantastic. joanie come up here, she is a wonderful woman, loves our state and loves our country. >> joanie ernst, fighting to keep her senate seat as the party is trying the to hold on to the majority in the chamber while the republicans are trying to make mcconnell the next minority leader. more on the battlefor the control of the u.s. senate, steve? >> yes, 53-47 right now, if biden gets elected, they would love to have a democratic

senate, they would need a net gain of three. if they get to 50/50. democrats would effectively take control. they need a net gain of three if biden wins. let's take a look, the first thing to remember here, is functionsally this is probably a net gain of four. there's a democratic incumbant, doug jones. extraordinary circumstances, got jones this seat back in a special election in 2017. tommy tubberville, has been leading in the polls, if it holds up then effectively they need a net gain of 4, plus biden win to get senate control. they need a net gain of four here probably. where are they trying to get it. here are the ripe estimate targ -- ripest for democrats. if you look at the polling average in the races. they trail to some degree.

they are close, 1-9 for corey gardner in colorado. let's look at the race. democrats needing a net gain of 4. they are feeling good about colorado, they are feeling good about arizona. we mentioned they like biden's chances in the state. and also, trump has been running significantly ahead in arizona. that's why democrats feel about that one. they may expect to win at the presidential level. trailing, they will have instant run off voting. susan collins is over 50% on the initial vote. she may have trouble getting there the democratic candidate.

it's north carolina out, it's a big if. take a look at the race in georgia. we see david purdue. the polling, neither g in-- gets in georgia, this happens in georgia, a fair amount. three or four points major candidate party. here's two big question marks. if they don't hit either of these, where else do they look. you lead now in the polling average in her state. des moines register state, that is why she now leads montana. could steve bullet beat steve danes, and expected to have a

history of electing democrats the statewide office. a prospect for democrats. lindsey graham, and the other georgia seat, this is kelly lefler, the appointed incumbent. doug collins, republican congressman. a bunch of candidates here. it's certain to go to a run off, that is the other possibility