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of course, 90 million americans have already cast their ballots, early voting, mail-in voting, it's been going for weeks now. our nbc news polling average has president trump trailing his challenger, former vice president joe biden, by nearly eight points. earlier today, axios reported that the president will claim victory tuesday night if he appears to be ahead. that would be for mail-in ballots where democrats are expected to have an advantage in pennsylvania. both candidates responded to that report. >> that was a false report. we'll look at what happens. i think it's a terrible thing when ballots can be collected after an election. >> my response is the president is not going to steal this election. >> today both campaigns were in full swing, the candidates and

their running mates barnstorming k battlegrounds. joe biden was back on the road in philadelphia. tomorrow biden, kamala harris and their spouses are going to fan out across all four corners of the keystone state, hitting a dozen different locations. the president just finished speaking in rome, gg dpeorggeor. later tonight he is going to hold his fifth rally in florida, a must-win state for him. new polls out today tell two different tales of what could happen in florida on i lelectio night. let's fire this thing up. we're going to be using it a lot in the next couple days. the road to 270, you see the battlegrounds here. if biden starts with the states

hillary clinton won in 2016, there's a couple there that the trump campaign has been talking about trying to pick off, but biden continues to lead in the polls. if biden starts in the clinton states, that's where you're getting that 232 from. then you see the states that donald trump carried in 2016 and where donald trump to some degree or another is in trouble right now. i think the first thing that jumps out at you on this map is we just talked about this in the open, some states like pennsylvania may take a while to get all their votes counted. other states may be a lot quicker. joe biden starts out with an edge in the electoral college, starts out with trump playing defense in the electoral college. there are going to be opportunities for joe biden to deliver some very serious blows to trump in the electoral college, chief among them the state of florida.

it's must-win for the president because it's 29 electoral votes. he carried it in 2016. it gets very hard when you look at this map that donald trump gets to 270 votes without taking florida. if biden were to get florida, it would push him right away to 261. he wouldn't be over 270. he'd be on the cusp. he'd be one more flip away from hitting 270. we expect in those early hours of election night to get a lot of the vote in from florida. that would be a potentially devastating blow to the president right off the bat. outside of florida, again, north carolina, georgia, maybe ohio, a little bit later in the night texas, all states where the

president is playing defense, all states where we expect a substantial number of votes to be reported out tuesday night. each one of these, think of it essentially for the president. it's an elimination contest. he has got to run the table in these states to stay in the electoral college. that's the early hours potentially on tuesday night. also later that night we expect to get a lot of the vote from arizona as well. if trump is able to carry all of those states to stay in contention for 270, the action would shift to pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin, those traditionally blue states that trump flipped by the skin of his teeth in 2016. mail-in ballots could take a while in pennsylvania, maybe some time to get a result in michigan and wisconsin. the president would need to survive all these states we just

mentioned and pick off at least one here. that's where it could take a while. again, there's all sorts of different permutations here. this weekend, as we mentioned, both campaigns blitzing all of these key battlegrounds. nbc political reporter ali vitale is in philadelphia following the biden campaign. shannu you are at ap live rally, the president really focusing in on florida. what's the message he's bringing out there and what's his campaign saying about how they look at polls showing him eight, nine, ten points behind?

>> reporter: it's no accident that one of his last rallies is taking place here in miami-dade county. about 60% of the population identifies as hispanic. the trump campaign has been talking about how they see they are picking up latino support, particularly among people with ties to venezuela and cuba because of this strong anti-socialist message that the trump has had really for several years now. this is one of their most consistent messages. their internal numbers indicate that message is starting to pay off. while maybe he's not going to win latino voters, he's going to be able to scoop them up here. he needs that to offset the big losses among other groups, particularly seniors in this state. it is really a must-win state. the path is so narrow if they can't win florida. another factor as we see this

last-minute push, about 9 million people have already voted in florida. that is getting really close to the total ballots cast in 2016. the speaker here a minute ago asked the crowd how many had already voted and nearly everyone cheered and raised their hand. how much any of this is going to have an impact, we'll have to see on those final numbers, but certainly a priority for the president. >> ali vitali, priority for the biden campaign pennsylvania. what's the biden campaign trying to do a repeat of pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan this time around? >> reporter: spend as much time there as possible and put as many organizing feet on the ground as they possible can in these final days.

you look at somewhere like pennsylvania. it is the battleground state that joe biden has spent the most time in during this general election. the message that he brings here, as he does everywhere, is covid centric. even when he's not directly talking about the virus, he's talking about the virus in terms of economic recovery, in terms of bringing back jobs. listen to the way he talked about donald trump and the coronavirus. >> the truth is to beat the virus we've first got to beat donald trump. he's a virus. >> reporter: look, you talk about the states that they need to win. pennsylvania is a place that it factors in, obviously, to the biden calculus. but think of how important it is in the trump campaign's calculus. they need to really preserve most if not all of the states they won in 2016. so while the biden campaign sees several different ways they can put states together to get to 270, one of the ways they can do

that is by cutting donald trump off at the pass in pennsylvania. we do know this is one of those states that the biden campaign has been saying they expect it to be close. at the same time they try to organize here campaigning in this what would be considered one of the more traditional battlegrounds. it's part of a two-day blitz through the keystone state. joe biden and kamala harris effectively splitting the state up, joe biden taking the western half, kamala harris taking the eastern part of the state and trying to drive upturnout across all of those cities pittsburgh and philadelphia. they're also campaigning in states they might call the expand states, the state that is the biden campaign sees as opportunities they could flip from 2016. states like arizona, georgia,

texas, are states democrats have been looking at for quite some time that they're wondering if now in 2020 it's ripe for democrats in a presidential election year. in arizona, north carolina and pennsylvania they exceeded their goals in door knocks and phone calls. the candidates are out but they're also still going that grassroots get out the vote turnout. >> thanks to both of you for being with us. let's take a look here at a state that many are surprised e to see in the tossup category late in the campaign, texas. it's one democrats have had their eyes on for a long time. over 9 million texans have already voted in this presidential race. that is more than the total number of votes that were cast in that state in 2016. the latest polls showing a tight race, one that could go either

way. 38 electoral votes up for grabs there. losing this state would obviously be a imamajor devastag blow for the trump campaign. one thing to explain why this became so competitive relative to 2016. trump won this state by nine in 2016. it was a nine-point margin for trump in 2016. that was already underwellihelm by republican standards. the margin for republicans came all the way down to three. from 2012 to 2018, republicans have lost 13 of that 16-point margin that mitt romney had.

the story of why that is in texas, it's the metro areas. what you see here, you have seen dramatic movement. in some of these counties, it's 20, almost 30-point movement from republicans to democrats at this time. you're talking about places with a lot of college degrees, white collar professionals. it is why democrats have been so optimistic about texas for so long. you look at what happened there in that senate race in 2018. they got very, very close. they think maybe this could be the election that puts them over the top. from an electoral college standpoint, you can't see trump surviving that if it were to happen. nbc news has confirmed that the

fbi is investigating the alleged harassment of a biden campaign bus by motorists displaying trump flags . trump weighed in saying in my opinion these patriots did nothing wrong. the texas supreme court denied a republican-led petition to invalidate about 127 drive-through votes that were cast in harris county. that's houston. a federal court is expected to rule on the same issue tomorrow, just a day before the election. let's go to garrett haake, who is in houston. garrett, obviously this ruling hugely significant when you just look at the number of ballots at stake here. talk about the implications there and the battle for texas. what are you seeing on the ground? zbhnch >> reporter: in terms of voter access in texas, this whole election has been one step forward, two steps back. the governor added six days of

early in-person voting in texas. that same republican governor limiting the number of ballot dropoff points to just one per county. you've got an outside group of republicans led by a political activist suing to throw out these drive-through ballots that were cast. that was kind of a brainchild of the harris county clerk here, who's been trying to come up with additional ways to improve access to voting here in the county. the texas supreme court threw out this lawsuit, but there is going to be this federal lawsuit tonight. >> if the federal court follows the law, then we'll win no questions asked. the law is 100% on our side and these votes could counshould co.

there are over 100,000 voters here, democrats, republicans and everything in between and their votes should count. >> reporter: the beto ted cruz race was decided by about 250,000 votes total. just to give the sense of scale here in texas, harris county, we've got about 1.4 million votes already counted. that's more than those who voted in the entire state of nevada in this one docounty. those are the numbers driving all of this talk about texas is a battleground state. they're so off the charts, they've effectively broken the modeling for texas turnout. >> texas one of those states where we do expect a substantial number of votes to be reported out on tuesday. coming up, we're going to

take a look at the big picture with some final preelection poll numbers. those poll numbers are coming fast and furious now. but counting the votes in each state, obviously what will count in the end. we're going to talk to michigan's secretary of state. that's where of those we mentioned where it might be aly complicated, a little lengthy. y complicated, a little lengthy. it's either the assurance of a 165-point certification process. or it isn't. it's either testing an array of advanced safety systems. or it isn't. it's either the peace of mind of a standard unlimited mileage warranty. or it isn't. for those who never settle, it's either mercedes-benz certified pre-owned. or it isn't. the mercedes-benz certified pre-owned sales event. now through november 2nd. shop online and build your deal today. one of the worst things about a cois how it can make you feel. but, when used at the first sign,

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welcome back. let's head to michigan. that's where both candidates have campaigned heavily this weekend. the president will be there again tomorrow. michigan's 16 electoral voetes one of the reasons donald trump was able to win in 2016. it was a razor-thin margin for him in michigan. a poll for the detroit free press shows joe biden with a

seven-point lead over donald trump right now. 2016, of those three states trump flipped that had been democratic since the '80s, this was the narrowest. what are we going to be watching on tuesday night? what were the ingredients that went into 2016 and we want to see if they're still there for trump? there are a couple things here. this is wayne county, this is detroit, this is dearborn. this is core democratic territory. how strong is the turnout going to be? can democrats get a bigger turnout in wayne county than they got in 2016? black voters in particular a concern for democrats. they don't think they got the turnout that they need in 2016 from black voters. can they get that this time? this is one place we're going to be looking president another place we're going to be looking,

you go just north of detroit. there's two big counties right outside detroit going in different directions politic politically. oakland county, suburbs of detroit becoming a core democratic area. how about mccomb county? they used to say home of the reagan democrats back in the early '80s. trump won this county. he flipped it. trump flipped this county. can he hold onto those gains or is he going to lose them? look in the western part of the state around grand rapids, traditionally more republican turf. is that an area where democrats are going to be able to make some gains? who better to join us than to

talk about an election coming up in michigan than the state's secretary of state jocelyn benson. you're a great person to talk to because we mentioned this earlier, there are some states on election night particularly in the south like a florida, a north carolina where we expect to get the vast majority of the vote in. michigan, there seems to be a lot more question marks. you are the elections official in the michigan. how much of the vote in michigan do you think we will be able to see on tuesday night? >> well, it remains to be seen. however, we are telling people we'll have more of an update closer to tuesday. in fact, the morning of the election is when about 3 million absentee ballots will begin to be tabulated. it's very unlikely that we'll have resulted in any jurisdiction by the time the polls close at around 9:00.

around the time the polls close, we will make another announcement about how far we are in that tabulation process. from the moment those polls close to when we have that full tabulation, we'll continue to update the public. we've said all along people should not expect, nor should they have ever expected, results out of michigan on tuesday night . >> this sets up a key question for folks watching the results come in tuesday night. we have these two buckets of votes, the folks who go vote in person on election day versus the folks who voted by mail in the last couple of weeks. it looks like there could be a significant divergence in how those two groups are voting. is your expectation on tuesday night we are going to be seeing a lot more of the same-day vote

and t than the mail-in vote? >> we're going to see a little bit of both we have 1500 jurisdictions in michigan. in some jurisdictions they may be ready soon after the polls close to announce a full tabulation of both. other larger jurisdictions may still be taking some time to tally their absentee ballots. a lot of that is going to be determined once we know the whole universe of absentee ballots in each jurisdiction. in our august primary we had 1.6 million absentee ballots statewide and it took 40 hours for every jurisdiction to work through them. we'll have about double that in

november. we'll be updating the public as we go along and as each jurisdiction comes in. >> how much of your vote do you think roughly has been cast in the mail-in faphase of this? what share of votes do you think are these mail-in ballots that could take some type to process in some places? >> about two-thirds of our vote. by no means should anyone expect the election day tabulation to be in any way a full account of the a reflection of the will of the people in michigan. every vote will be counted equally. that is what will determine winner or loser. all ballots will be counted. >> thank you for taking a few minutes. appreciate it. >> sure. all right.

still to come, we talked about michigan and pennsylvania. what about wisconsin? the third one of those traditionally democratic states that flipped in 2016. we're going to take a look at the badger state, next. we're going to take a look at the badger state, next hmm!.. hmm!.. hmm!.. (woman on porch vo) can we vote by mail here? (grandma vo) you'll be safe, right? (daughter vo) yes! (four girls vo) the polls! voted! (grandma vo) go out and vote! it's so important! (man at poll vo) woo! (grandma vo) it's the most important thing you can do! asaving 50% vs. other carriers built just for customers 55 and up. with 2 unlimited lines for less than $30 each. call 1-800-t-mobile or go to t-mobile.com/55. one of the worst things about a cois how it can make you feel. but, when used at the first sign,

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(snap) ♪ fine jewelry for my damn self. mejuri. four years ago wisconsin was a crushing disappointment for democrats. they used to call it one of those blue wall states. and then hillary clinton lost it by less than a point in 2016 and with it the presidency. a poll out today from the "new york times" does show joe biden in a very different position with an 11-point lead in wisconsin. other polls have also shown solid biden leads in recent days. we're going to take a trip in the way back machine eight years ago to 2012, because this sets

up why 2016 was such a shock. 2012 barack obama got reelected in wisconsin easily. in 2012 who was mitt romney's running mate? paul ryan of wisconsin. there was a republican from wisconsin on the ticket and they couldn't get within seven points, could the republicans. barack obama was reelected with ease in wisconsin. so it was such a shock what happened in 2016. take a look at the change to the political geography. here's what happened four years later in wisconsin. look at all that blue to red. here's 2012, here's 2016. you see a big shift to red along the mississippi river. other things that went wrong for democrats in wisconsin in 2016, milwaukee, turnout in milwaukee, heavily democratic city, but turnout in milwaukee was way down for democrats. then you just had a lot of these

sort of blue collar rural counties flip in the state. it added up to a 23,000 vote victory there for donald trump. i believe when wisconsin was called, so was the presidency in 2016. the polls now are showi ining a different story for democrats potentially. craig gilbert knows wisconsin politics. wisconsin in 2016, we show trump winning. there was also a big polling miss in wisconsin in 2016, meaning, the final polls had hillary clinton solidly ahead and then she lost.

now we see the final polls putting joe biden solidly ahead in wisconsin. what is the sense on the ground here? is the sense that joe biden really is in good shape in wisconsin or here are the polls setting up to be wrong again? >> i think the answer is both. we haven't seen really tangible lines of biden's lead shrinking. you talked about the polls. we've had a lot of polls with biden up five or ten. i think it's toward the smaller end of that range because wisconsin is so polarized. democrats certainly are haunted by what happened in 2016 and it creates that, you know, little bit of uncertainty. if it's closer to five than it is to ten, then you can imagine if donald trump can find a way to change the composition of the electorate and there's a good

republican turnout machine in wisconsin, which there is, that could close the gap a little bit more. it is what it is. you'd rather be in joe biden's position than donald trump's position, but this state has a history of surprises. >> they have coincided with the covid outbreak really taking hold in wisconsin, getting it the worst of just about any state right now. is there a sense of any connection that covid has grabbed hold in wisconsin and had an effect on the presidential race in this state? >> in some of the polls the numbers have changed very little. so we all suspect that covid is playing a role, but the numbers aren't that dramatic on that score. in one of the leading polls in wisconsin, the marquette poll, the numbers have been basically

etched in stone since may. but one thing that's going on that helps explain joe biden's lead in wisconsin, he's a lot more competitive than hillary clinton with blue collar voters and in those obama/trump counties, if you bring it down to the local level, there's more than 500 cities, towns and villages in wisconsin that voted for obama. that's been a big factor behind joe biden's advantage in this state. >> we were talking about this in michigan a minute ago too. pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin are wild cards on tuesday night just with the question of how is the vote going to be reported out. is this going to be one of the states where you get a ton of the same-day vote that might favor the president and then

days later you get the mail-in vote that might swing it the other way? >> we've got more than 1.8 million absentee ballots that's close to two-thirds of the 2016 vote. there's more than 1800 jurisdictions. 39 of them count absentee ballots separately than election day votes. the rest of them count them together. in those places where they count them separately, we're expecting to get the absentee vote later. chief among them is the city of milwaukee, which is the state's biggest city. it's very democratic. you're going to have more than half a million of absentee ballots in those 39 communities that are going to be reported later than the election day ballots and they're going to have a democratic skew.

>> craig gilbert, thank you so much for taking a few minutes. appreciate the time. and some final preelection poll numbers straight ahead. stay with us. straight ahead. stay with us 2021 gla suv. starting at just $36,230. it's the biggest thing that ever happened to small. lease the gla 250 suv for just $399 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer. ythey customize yours lcar insurance. so you only pay for what you need.

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in 48 hours from now, polls are going to be closing, results are going to be pouring in. here's where things stand nationwide. you are looking at the final preelection nbc news "wall street journal" poll. it shows joe biden leading donald trump by ten points. the knowledge polling average puts donald trump at 44%, biden at 52%. all of this comes as many counties across the country are breaking early voting records. more than 93 million people have already vote in this election. mark murray, senior political

editor for nbc news, maria hinojosa and eugene robinson. thanks to all of you for being with us. having flashbacks here the last few segments looki ing back at 2016 electoral maps, that very narrow route donald trump took to the presidency, you look at the polls now. it is a wider lead for biden than donald trump had going into 2016. i think that memory of 2016 seems to inform a lot of the thinking heading into tuesday where even if biden is ahead, it certainly feels like there is a lot of suspense here. >> file i don't know if it's sue

or ptsd for a lot of people. i don't know. generals often make the mistake of fighting the last war as opposed to the war they're in now. sometimes i think we forget to look at how the nation has evolved, how the political situation has changed, how circumstances are different this time and take that into account and not just totally be overshadowed by 2016 as we try to decipher these polls. by the way, how do you poll an election where 93 million people have already voted? we're talking about polls of an election that's already somewhere between half over and two-thirds over, right? those votes are already cast. so this is, in that sense, at least to me, kind of uncharted territory, but, yes, you would rather be the candidate shown to

have a ten-point lead in the nbc poll than the candidate shown to be ten points behind. >> mark murray, there was a quote here from bill mcinfur tu. he said this election is probably the most competitive ten-point raise i've ever seen. sounds like a contradiction of terms. but you don't see ten points gap there. you end up seeing some sizable gaps in pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin and then just a bunch of states where trump maybe has to overcome one, two, three-point gaps. you add them together, it's a daunting task, but you could see them individually. >> i think the biggest advantage trump had going into this election was just the electoral

college advantage the republicans have. we saw it four years ago where republicans could end up losing the popular vote by two percentage points and sill wtil the presidency. joe biden would need to win the popular vote by four, five or six percentage points just to be in the clear. our poll that shows joe biden with a ten-point lead nationally among registered voters, but joe biden's lead goes to six points. it goes to show the advantage that republicans do have in our electoral college system as it exists right now. >> you're getting at this, but it does seem if you try to sketch together on the electoral map a trump victory scenario right now where he just gets over 270, it very likely would require him to be losing the

popular vote by a significantly wider margin than he did in 2016. >> yeah. what that actually ends up meaning, if the president does pull off a surprise victory and loses the popular vote by five or six percentage points, ity that would actually wind up being more controversial than what happened in 2016 and once again republicans would not end up winning the popular vote and yet another presidential cycle. what is different about 2016 and 2020, to me, is just really the trajectory of this race. hillary clinton had a double-digit lead in many polls in november after access hollywood. then she lost altitude in that race. this race has been remarkably stable where joe biden has had a consistent seven to 11-point lead in our polling.

to me that's been one of the big differences between 2016 and now. >> maria, i want to talk about the latino vote. if you look at florida, our telemundo poll finds that among latino voters, the lead for joe biden is down to just five points. if you look at the exit polls for 2016, hillary clinton won by 30 points. when you look at texas for instance, there was a poll there this week that still showed a very healthy democratic lead with latino voters. the shift that we're seeing in some of the polls among latino voters in florida, do you think that is a florida specific shift driven largely by cuban americans and sort of a longer standing allegiance to the republican party that's kind of reasserting itself, or is there a broader movement that you could see the potential for in other states like texas or

arizona? >> both. on the one hand there was a very specific targeting by the trump campaign not just in the last year or two, but in the last three actually tovotere evoters florida, many of them evangelicals. they've also had a broader base in the state of texas. what we're not talking about and what i'm really focusing on is the youth vote. latinos and latinas between the ages of 18-27 right now have the highest rate of actually showing up and doing the early voting. who's actually polling those numbers? who's looking at that spes fi specifici specificity? there is a sector of latino men who are going to go after the guy who's looking tough and acting tough and looking and

ak acting like a bully. that's not just because they're latinos. it's because they respond to somebody who acts like a bully. but if you take everything you've been if that holds true election day north. >> all right. maria hinojosa, mark murray, eugene robinson, thank you all for being with us tonight. appreciate that. and georgia, we talked about a lot of midwest states. what about georgia? the last time it went for a democrat, bill clinton back in 1992. 28 years ago. is it going to flip back to the democrats in 2020? we'll talk about that in just a minute.

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watchman. it's one time. for a lifetime. well, the state of georgia hasn't supported a democratic candidate for president since back in 1992. and while joe biden does lead donald trump in three recent polls, most of those margins are within the margin of error. but nbc news reports that democrats remain hopeful about georgia, due in part to an influx of college-educated voters in the atlanta area. recent polling shows that white suburban women, in particular, might vote democratic this time around. the sheer number of newly registered voters, many of them african-american who have already cast their ballots could play a role, too. let's take a closer look here at georgia. we mentioned recent polling

giving democrats hope in georgia. let's take a look here at what happened in 2016 in georgia. donald trump did carry the state. the margin was only about five points so this wasn't too far off. at least by raw numbers to democrats. but we mentioned this, the atlanta metro area, see nine counties here in and around atlanta that hillary clinton carried in 2016. this is the heart of democratic hopes in atlanta. in 2016 just those 9 blue counties you see there, hillary clinton's margin in those counties put together was 29 points. if you go outside those nine counties to the rest of the state, the margin was 29 points the other way. it was trump by 29. clinton by 29. trump by 29. and it added up to a trump victory statewide. interestingly, in 2018 when stacey abrams, the democrat, almost got elected governor of georgia, these same nine counties, she didn't win them by 29. she won them by 36.

so she's squeezed more votes out of this core democratic area than hillary clinton did in 2016. it brought her much closer statewide. more votes, and by the way, fast-growing areas here. every year adding more and more people, more and more voters to these areas. so that is a big question for democrats and for joe biden on tuesday. look what clinton did. look what abrams did in this core democratic area. when it comes to raw support and when it comes to turnout, can he do even better? the stacey abrams number brought democrats to the cusp of victory in georgia. they got a shot to go over the top on tuesday. would be huge electoral college ramifications, obviously, if they did. by the way, georgia one of those states we think we're going to get a lot of numbers from early. so that's going to wrap it up for us this hour, though, thank you for watching. tune in tuesday, the election night of our lifetimes. 4:00 p.m. eastern. you can join nicolle wallace for special coverage followed by chris hayes at 5:00. then at 6:00, i'm going to be at

the big board. we're going to break down the numbers with brian williams, rachel maddow, joy reid and nicolle wallace there to help us put it in context. election night coverage begins tuesday 4:00 p.m. eastern on msnbc. and be sure to check in with joshua johnson during the day on "nbc news now." that is monday from noon to 2:00 and election day from noon to 3:00. you don't want to miss that. thank you for watching, and have a great night. i'm a peer educa. a fitness buff,... and a champion for my own health. i talked with my doctor... and switched to... fewer medicines with... dovato. prescription dovato is for some adults who are starting hiv-1 treatment or replacing their current hiv-1 regimen. with...just 2 medicines... in 1 pill, dovato is as effective as a 3-drug regimen to help you reach and stay undetectable. research shows people who take hiv treatment as prescribed... and get to and stay undetectable... can no longer transmit hiv through sex. don't take dovato

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