outright. even if in fact we don't actually know the answer. and spending another day count those would give a victory to joe biden. alexi mccammond, thank you so much. we'll be reading axios a.m. in a little while. you can sign you were for the newsletter at signup.axios.com. on this election eve, the thing i'm focused on is suburban voters in the sunbelt. are they going to hand this presidency to joe biden? are we going to see a rewrite of the map? thank you and "morning joe" starts right now. wow, this is a big crowd. this is a very big crowd. look at all those cameras over there. can you show the crowd? you know, can you show this crowd? they never talk about our crowd and in reverse, they never talk about sleepy joe's crowd either.

it's about 12 people just showed up. 12. look at this crowd. maybe you could take those cameras and just show over there and over there. >> what is his obsession, by the way, with crowd size? you notice that? he's always -- this is the one measure he has of success. he's still worrying about his inauguration crowd being smaller than mine. it really bugs him. he is still talking about that. does he have nothing better to worry about? did no one come to his birthday party when he was a kid? was he traumatized? what's with crowds? you know, i have had crowds before. you know?

had quite a few, but you know when a country is going through a pandemic that's not what you're supposed to be worrying about. >> wow, good morning. welcome to "morning joe." it is monday, november 2nd. now just one day until the election, if you can believe it. guys ready? >> willie, look, you -- look at your screen, right, and how can you tell it's election week, right? i brought out my election week sweater. >> oh, yes, a new one. >> i never wear this sweater unless it's election week. we do it every four years. going back to what was it, '48 -- >> yeah. '48. that's your election week sweater then every week is election weak. >> along with joe, willie and

me, we have jonathan lemire. and the silhouettes what's the deal? and host -- >> look at the dog's legs. if i'm going to silhouette something it's the dog. and host of the "politicsnation," reverend al sharpton. >> willie, let's start right now. can we just say it right now. just with the whole group here, nobody knows nothing. >> no. >> we don't know who's going to win this election. every poll out seems to be pointing towards a joe biden victory. seems a lot like 2016 when we were mocked and ridiculing for even suggesting that donald trump can get to 270. before people are saying this race is over, they need to take a long, deep breath and understand you remember what tom brokaw told us back in -- i

guess it was in the 21st century in 2012 -- or 2008 when we were saying that hillary clinton's campaign was over in new hampshire. obama was up by 12 points, everybody wrote her political obituary and then the voters decided who they wanted to win. >> yeah, the difference is that a lot of the voters have decided what they want to win. if you look at the data f you look at the polling, and if you look at how consistent the polling has been, your mind and your eyes for data tell you that joe biden has a comfortable lead. but as our pollster said this is the most competitive race he's ever seen when the new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll that shows joe biden with a ten-point lead. it will a wild night and donald trump has already signalled that. he said we're going to flood the zone with our lawyers, send them into pennsylvania and michigan

and wisconsin and we are going to dispute this election. no matter what happens he's already saying that. meanwhile, there's some reports that say he could go out and declare victory as early as he can on tuesday night. of course he will not have won, but he'll try to say it anyway. >> we'll show you -- we'll be doing coverage on peacock and we can assure you if trump declares victory we'll say, don't take the feed. it's not going to happen. we'll be doing election coverage until midnight or whenever is over. you can get it on your smart tv or your apple tv and download and see. and donald trump has spent the past weekend saying that even if he is losing he's going -- they're going to flood the zone

in pennsylvania with lawyers and he's already thanked the united states supreme court. he's already thanked them ahead of time. >> that's the -- >> yeah. donald, don't say the quiet part out loud. >> he keeps doing it. >> he keeps doing it. he's already talked about the need to get amy coney barrett on the supreme court so she can rule in his favor on any future election challenges and this weekend he was thanking the supreme court ahead of time for being more than his political tools to get him four more years in the white house. >> let me quote president trump himself and say we'll see what happens. on this full day -- all the time. we'll see what happens. >> in two weeks. >> so we have one day before tomorrow's presidential election. some consider it the most consequential election of our lifetimes. >> i do. >> president trump holds a rally in north carolina and ends in wisconsin and michigan.

in between he'll be in biden's hometown of scranton, pennsylvania, and joe biden has two events later on tonight in pittsburgh. here's why the focus is on pennsylvania, by the way. biden leads by nine. 52% to 43%. both "the washington post," abc news and the reuters/ipsos polls have biden leading by seven. 51% to 44%. the mullen berg college poll finds biden up by five. 49% to 44%. while "the new york times" siena college poll shows biden up by six and the emerson college poll has biden up by four. >> jonathan lemire, we have been looking at the data all week and looking at the public polls and talking to the campaigns i think you and i have heard the same

thing a week ago. it was more of a tossup and now the biden camp, they're feeling more comfortable by the day with a victory in pennsylvania. that it's coming in pennsylvania. they're not going to take it for granted. they know how critical it is and the trump campaign they still think they can win, but not sounding as confident as they were a week ago. >> that's right, joe. both campaigns publicly of course say they can win and are going to win. but behind the scenes it is a little different. let's start with the biden campaign who has been expressing a quiet confidence about all of the battleground states and particularly pennsylvania. biden born in scranton, he lives next door in delaware, he has been to pennsylvania more than any other battleground state in a huge margin. and he and kamala harris will be camped out there today to make sure that pennsylvania comes

home, kind of returns to the democratic column. they feel like they have a lead. not a huge one, not as big as that public polling but one they feel good about. but let's look to where else they're going on the map today. joe biden is going to ohio. this follows president obama, he will be in georgia. they were both in georgia and texas and iowa. this is to try to deliver an early knockout blow tomorrow night to make this be about pennsylvania, to snarl it with legal challenges. pennsylvania a state that could days to return its winner. other states that if biden can win early, if he can pick off let's say a georgia that happens much earlier in the night. without it, trump has a much more difficult road to 270. the trump campaign -- i mean the president laid bare yesterday what their strategy is. to hope this is as close enough, they believe they'll be ahead with the votes cast that day and

he'll try to prematurely declare a victory. that doesn't make him a victor because there are votes to be counted no matter what legal challenges they try to front. the margin for error is small. it is going to as one senior adviser put it over the weekend, it has to be flawless, they have no margin of error to overcome the margins that they believe that joe biden will have. that's similar story elsewhere on the map as a final point. they have grown pessimistic about states like minnesota and they believe that michigan is an extreme long shot even though the president will be there for two different rallies there including the finale in grand rapids. they hope to pull an inside straight in sunbelt, where things are very tight and in arizona where they're down and try their best in pennsylvania even if it means going to the courts. >> the president has five stops

today. two of those in michigan. rev, good to have another human being in the studio, it's be a lonely eight months. you have been through a few of these things. where do you see this race right now? joe biden some polls him with a double digit lead. looking comfortable in some battleground states but what is your word of caution to democrats? how are you feeling about this race? >> my word of caution, no matter how many people we have seen vote early and we have seen a tremendous turnout, they must turn out tomorrow. they must also be prepared not for the president trump, but for as we know him in new york, don the con. he's going to come out early and proclaim victory and then have you disprove what he said for the next two or three days saying look at what they did to

me. he's going to pose as the martyr and he'll come out and claim victory and no matter what the numbers show they're going to try to rob me and we have to be careful not to go for the early con tomorrow. the earlier that trump comes out the more he knows he's losing and trying to change the narrative. that's the only thing he can try to win now in my opinion. if there's a big turnout he can try to win the narrative even if he can't win the election. >> so rev, help me out here with specifically philadelphia because we'll go state by state. we're in pennsylvania right now. i suspect we need to pick up the pace, but pennsylvania, florida, these other swing states so important. let's talk about pennsylvania for one second. insiders i talk to on both campaigns are looking at florida, they're looking at pennsylvania. florida actually tightened this weekend because a lot of black

voters yesterday after church, whether it was online or in person, went to the polls and so now in florida, we'll talk about that in a little bit they're outperforming where hillary clinton was four years ago and that had changed the outcome -- the outlook in florida a little bit over the weekend. but pennsylvania, it comes down to black voters in philadelphia and across the state coming out and voting. obviously four years ago, black -- the black vote went down for the first time in 20 years. what can you tell us about the turnout operations in philadelphia. can joe biden expect to perform as well as or better than hillary clinton four years ago? >> i think from what i have seen and my contacts on the ground that you will see more of a turnout in pennsylvania particularly philadelphia. the recent shooting last weekend killing of a mentally challenged

black man has energized the community. the downside was there was some looting and it took a lot to say -- for many of us to say the looting is only going to help trump and it will not get justice for the victim. but i think the shooting and the reaction has energized a lot of people to say we need to come out and vote and get an administration that will deal with this. this was also very interesting that yesterday the biden/harris campaign put out a photo of biden meeting with george floyd's family and ben crump and i and put that out in philadelphia. people needed to be reminded that he showed compassion for families seeking justice whereas donald trump went the opposite away. i reiterate the looting and disorder only feeds into trump's law and order narrative and community leaders and activists on the ground is saying every brick you throw through a window

is a vote for donald trump. >> let's stay in pennsylvania. monmouth university puts joe biden ahead of president trump by seven points in the state, 51% to 44%. let's bring in director of the monmouth poll, patrick murray. good morning. so walk us through some of your new polling and how steady it has been over the last couple of weeks and months. are you seeing a late break here? >> i think pennsylvania has been the state where as you have been talking about there's been the softest movement, the ability to move folks. we had joe biden up by double digit, by 11 points, just after the first debate and when the president was diagnosed with covid. that had a major impact and i think the voters are more likely to move. the keys that we're seeing in pennsylvania right now is that joe biden is holding on to that lead and it's a pretty decent lead but it still is moveable. we're looking at potential for

him having some weakness in the senior vote. probably still going to win the senior vote but not by as much as a few months ago. thing is a what reverend sharpton is talking about with the law and order issue coming up with the voters but joe biden we're seeing a solid lead in philadelphia, solid lead with black voters. particularly the philadelphia suburbs. the areas that are still going to be up for grabs as they were four years ago was northeast pennsylvania, that area from lackawanna county, down to lehigh county. that's why he's been going to be spending a lot of time there because that area is still very much up for grabs. the other part we're seeing joe biden doing well is eating into donald trump's share of the vote in the red areas. just move a little bit over to luzerne county, for example, which swung to 20 points towards donald trump in 2016. donald trump's probably still going to win luzerne but we are

seeing that joe biden is doing well enough with the voters that he might cut the margin say in half. but that means there's still room for donald trump to make up that difference there. >> by the way, biden will be there in beaver county and in pittsburgh tonight. as you talk about the suburbs, bucks county and many others, how is joe biden doing as compared to hillary clinton four years ago in those counties? how significant is that? >> he's doing probably about five points better on average in those suburbs than hillary clinton. that's pretty much locked in. this is the blue wave we saw two years ago in the midterms while it didn't knock out fitzpatrick in bucks county, the votes were picked up there and they stuck for joe biden. so that's pretty solid for him. that's why we're looking at a larger lead in the polls now

than we were four years ago. we are seeing the softness outside of the suburbs. joe biden can bank on the suburbs the question comes down again to what happens in northeast pennsylvania. >> fascinating stuff. director of the monmouth poll, patrick murray, thank you so much for bringing us the new numbers and perspective on the state. let's turn now to florida, mika. >> all right. the new morning consult poll has biden ahead by about seven points, 52% to 45% and an emerson college poll has him up by five points. the latest "new york times"/siena poll has him leading at 47% to 44%. and "the washington post" poll has trump ahead at 50% to 48%. this seems close. >> i look at all of the polls and i think only "the new york

times" siena poll and "the washington post" poll -- you can average those two and i mean, if you look at the data right now it looks like we're tied. so just to walk through the data and jonathan lemire, i'll go back to you on this because we have been studying this closely over the past week and we'll talk to mark caputo next hour about it. but the democrats started with the 430,000 vote spread between democrats and republicans with absentee votes. we saw over the past week republicans just 50,000 a day -- were picking up 50,000 a day and one official whose upon doing this for 30 years said they have never seen one party win in such a linear way as the republicans did. they knocked it all the way down to 89,000. the democrats stopped the pleading and it's up to about 100,000, the difference. now, why does this matter? hillary clinton had a 90,000 vote difference and out of that

she ended up going into election day with a 275,000 vote lead. so those 10,000 extra votes for democrats are important and democratic operative i spoke with last night what's been following this extraordinarily close thinks they'll pick up an additional 10,000 a day with absentee ballots, an additional 10,000 tomorrow which means if that's the case and if they end up with a 20,000 or 30,000 vote -- or party affiliation advantage, that could be quite significant. but at the end of the day, this is coming down to the nonparty affiliations, third party affiliations, those are 2 million voters. if those break for joe biden by

2% or 3%, the trump people feel good. if they break by 5% they feel like they can win it. the biden people by their polls say they're up think 12%, 13% but it's very volatile. one biden campaign person who helped run hillary's campaign said those independent voters were plus 11 for hillary before the comey letter and plus 2 for trump after the comey letter. so they are persuadables and what direction they have broken over the last three weeks or so will determine who wins florida. so it is still from everything i'm hearing, it is still a jump ball, jonathan lemire. what are you hearing? >> i spoke to a senior biden person on friday who at that moment was really worried about florida. seeing a real softness in miami-dade in particular and saw a surge in republican voting and perhaps felt like florida is

slipping out of reach, but now that changed over the weekend. there's some hope that the republicans who cannibalized the day of vote, that they have already voted this past week after the president's series of campaign rallies where he was urging people to turn out. as you said, we can't overstate the importance of these independents. certainly, election wide the trend has -- the independents have broken for joe biden. will that happen on tuesday in florida, we shall see. but that's something that the biden campaign has grown hopeful about. the trump side, they feel it's indeed close. they know of course that they have no path without it. and as a final point, joe, after -- i have completed this dog silhouette. my next one is of meatball the cat. that should be next in my studio.

>> wonderful. >> just the paws, please. >> yeah. >> keep it together -- i'm learning. this is new. i'm learning. >> i understand, but you're good at them. as good as my grandmother was. i'm going to teach you crocheting next. >> okay. >> so willie, what a difference three days makes. if you talk to democrats three days ago, the biden campaign they were telling you, florida is looking rough and the trump campaign feeling really, really confident about how that was going. you talk to both sides last night, the trump campaign said it's a jump ball. we just don't know. the biden campaign actually thinks the numbers play out the way they they're going to play out, they can win it just by a hair. but of course, they're not looking at the public polls. they laugh at public polls and say it's a 76 -- i think both

sides think this race can be decided within 100,000 votes either way, but late last night, the biden campaign for the first time said we think we'll pull florida out just barely if democrats get out and vote the way they need to vote on election day. >> florida doesn't know how to do this easy, do they? it comes down to the few votes in the state of florida. but we'll know a lot about florida on election night. i know the concerns about pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin because of the way they count the mail-in ballots but florida, they'll have the mail-in voting. by 10:00 you'll get most of the polling, same-day voting tabulated. so if the biden campaign pulls out a victory obviously donald trump we know is going to contest it somehow. but if they pull out a victory, that's game over. i mean, there's no -- you can't overcome losing that state. he's playing defense across the country anyway. if he loses florida, he's done.

so we'll know that. you won't have to wait a week to understand what's happening in florida. >> and willie, you can also look across florida. florida obviously not an isolated state, not an insular state. people are flooding in to florida every day. you can look up and down the gulf coast. you can look from tampa all the way down to ft. myers. a lot of midwesterners are retired there. if that breaks especially heavily for donald trump, that is great news for donald trump. but if joe biden starts outperforming early in the evening and we'll know this by 7:15, 7:30. if you look at the 8 million votes that are dumped online by 7:30 or so, 8:00 and biden is outperforming hillary clinton's numbers by 5%, 10% that suggests problems not only in florida. that suggests problems across the midwest. so you could look at the

performance of donald trump and joe biden and actually project it out across the map in many cases to see who's going to have a good night that's what i did with bush in 2004. i saw he was overperforming in south florida from what he did in 2000. i knew -- i knew within 30, 45 minutes that we weren't going to have a replay of 2000. >> yeah. and north carolina and georgia count quickly too. so on the east coast closing times we'll know a good deal. speaking of the midwest let's go to wisconsin now. brand-new morning consult poll out just this morning gives joe biden a 13 point lead in the state. 54% to 41%. "the new york times" siena college poll shows biden ahead by 11 points. in the reuters/ipsos poll the former vice president is ahead by ten points. in the emerson college poll, up

by eight points, and in michigan, the latest ssrs poll, joe biden up by 12 points. the reuters/ipsos poll shows biden up by ten. 52% to 42%. emerson polls have biden up by seven. and the epic, mra poll gives biden a seven point lead, 48% to 41%. so joe, the president will be in michigan. he's still fighting for the states but you look at the spreads in michigan and wisconsin and they're beginning to look like reaches for him. >> yeah. you know, they are reaches for him and the trump campaign i have -- as jonathan lemire has been reporting suggested for some time that they didn't feel like they had a good shot in michigan. but rev, i'm sorry, i look at

these polls it's double digits in michigan and wisconsin, and i don't mean to be dr. doom, these aren't going to be double digit races. i mean, maybe four or five points but you look at some of the polls and it's almost like they're paid for by the republican national committee. saying, oh, don't worry about it. biden's so far ahead, trump doesn't have a chance. it's 2016 all over again. i know the pollsters are independent. i'm just saying, any democrat that believes joe biden is up by 11 or 12 points, man, you're drinking the kool-aid. these races are still close. >> very close and no one should in any way not have a sense of urgency if they're a democrat supporting the biden/harris ticket. i do believe that the two things that are helping biden particularly in florida and wisconsin and michigan is in florida, the source of the polls are very effective and they're

used in other states because what a lot of people don't understand, particularly the trump campaign, is that the church related kind of voter in the black community is usually a voter. they go and get rappers whose fans don't vote. the voters go to church, church folks vote. either way you want to put it and the souls of the polls brings out the numbers. the other thing i have seen in florida and you and i have talked about this, as we have observed it is that they have worked in outside counties that have been ignored in the past that are not majority black or democrat, but if you energize them it brings down the trump victory and that's happening in michigan and wisconsin, they're not only concentrating on the big cities, but going into the

outlying areas and working the area is which now has a lot of people of color in them which has been ignored in the past campaigns. >> and the other thing to look at is the covid numbers because wisconsin specifically is doing very badly and that can't bode well for the president. >> i suspect if you do see numbers where in michigan that biden wins by six, seven, eight points -- >> that's a covid spread. >> yeah. the seniors moving away from him. >> makeshift hospital. >> and how reckless the president has been. we talked about how florida and how that's a tossup, could go either way. the wild card is one of my republican friends says the wild card's the others and we just won't know until election night. but in the midwest, at least

from the campaigns we have spoken to some of those states both campaigns have very suggested it's locked down. the biden campaign feeling especially good in minnesota, wisconsin, michigan and they feel really good about pennsylvania. though they know they're going to sprint there hard until the very end. talk about what you have been hearing from the trump campaign about the midwest states. >> trump campaign has all but given up on michigan and they have abandoned it. they feel like michigan as noted is particularly a long shot. and they know that they recognize they're trailing wisconsin too. a state that earlier this year they thought that one of the states they could keep. the president will be in the upper midwest, a stop in wisconsin, two in michigan as they frantically try to piece together their road to 270. >> but jonathan, let me ask you

that. why would the president go twice -- twice to michigan when -- i mean, his team and the biden team say it's over? >> it's a good question. one that there's some divide in the trump ranks about. his final rally tonight is in grand rapids, the same spot where he had the last rally in 2016. donald trump heavily superstitious, wanted to recreate the magic. it's the other stop in michigan that makes others feel like it's a waste of time. they feel like he should be spending it somewhere else, like shoring up north carolina or georgia or doing yet another in pennsylvania. states that he simply can't get to 270 without. michigan and wisconsin they're much taller hills to climb and for the biden camp they'll be in pennsylvania all day today. but let's not overlook the stop in ohio. they know if they can take out ohio there's no chance for

donald trump to try to declare early victory tonight. they can prevent him from doing that if he can get to 270. >> let's put up the map before we go to break. a state completely dark for both camps, florida. the state of florida. it's interesting that donald trump's going to be in michigan, a state again, that most say is gone. but not going down to florida today, that is a fascinating decision on his part. and we'll see how it plays out. >> see what happens. we have just scratched the surface and we have new numbers from other states that hold the keys for victory. georgia, texas, north carolina, iowa, ohio and arizona. also ahead, a group of president trump supporters surround a biden campaign bus and now the fbi is getting involved.

plus, what the legal battle to throw out more than 100,000 votes in texas means for the state of the race. you're watching "morning joe." we will be right back. ching "mo" we will be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ since pioneering the suv in 1935, the chevy suburban has carried many things. nothing more important than family. introducing the most versatile and advanced chevy suburban and tahoe ever. what do i know? i'm just a kid. our generation's too young to vote. i was one year off. kind of gets me mad a little bit. the pressure for my generation to address the climate crisis is growing. we can't ignore the climate. it's really bad. i would say, to the older generation

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you see the way our people -- you know, they were protecting his bus yesterday because they're nice. so his bus -- they had hundreds of cars, trump, trump. trump and the american flag. that's it. you see trump and the american flag. you ever notice when you see the other side -- i don't see much of the other side. >> president trump with that praise of a caravan of his supporters harassing a bus belonging to joe biden's campaign. video of the incident showed the trump supporters surrounding the bus with their vehicles in texas. the biden campaign said the pro trump truck tried to run the bus

off the road as it traveled from san antonio to austin. trump tweeted praise for the supporters -- >> look at that. look at that. knocking the cars out of the way. >> and then quote, in my opinion, these patriots did nothing wrong. instead, the fbi and justice should be investigating the terrorists, anarchists -- >> blah blah blah. willie, is this really where -- is this where republicans -- because donald trumping is going to be gone. is this where republicans want politics to be? do they want their supporters to be chased off the road and by a democrat four years from now? do they want -- do they want their candidate, republican candidates, to be surrounded by angry mobs and have their bus pushed off the road? i mean, this is -- >> everybody knows better. >> yeah. and of course you would expect the president to condemn this. you would every republican to condemn this, but they won't.

the president not only refuses to condemn this behavior but he praises it. >> that's always the case for him as president, hasn't it been, where there's an ugly incident, a despicable incident as in this case, and you would expect the president of the united states to use his pulpit to condemn it and instead he fans the flames. he's done it again and again and again and in every different area you can conceive of, calling the people patriots. the people on the biden/harris bus. biden was not on the bus, but the surrogates were and the police had to give them an escort and they had to cancel some events. and you would hope -- you can't hope anymore with this president but you would hope that a president would not call them patriots and then gleefully recount the stories at his rallies as he did. it's an ugly moment. we saw too much of it yesterday, trump supporters were blocking traffic on roadways around new

york city, the tri-state area. maga hats and people invaded the garden state. >> hey, willie that's a good way to win votes, isn't it? you know what, i almost used a word on the air that i can't use here. but to be such jerks, to be so inconsiderate as to actually block -- you know, you have done it, i have done it, a lot of us have done it, where we're trying to take our kids to basketball games or we're trying to take our kids to friend's houses for, you know, birthday parties or we're trying to get our parents somewhere, these jerks decided to block traffic and make a point by blocking traffic? like they should be arrested. every one of them should be arrested. >> yeah. and what -- who are you persuading by doing that

exactly? i mean not persuading anybody. it's a symbolic middle finger with flags and god forbid the ambulance trying to get through. there was another one on the mario cuomo bridge and state troopers were able to move them along pretty quickly. we saw this first in texas and the new york area yesterday. >> yeah. >> traffic is bad enough in new york and new jersey and connecticut and these jackals decide they're going to make traffic worse. they're going to make people's lives more miserable. what are they proving? and by the way, yes, i say the same thing about leftists who have done this. >> yeah. but that's not what's happening here. >> but look what donald trump has made you. he has made you what you have hated your entire life. he has made you what you have criticized your entire life. you have become despicable in

stopping parents from taking their kids where they need to go. stopping people from taking their parents, maybe to the hospital. maybe there's an emergency because you were trying to make a point. this thing on texas, i want you to see this car getting shoved out of the way. is this -- republicans, is this what you want? because your president -- your president is praising this dangerous behavior. look at this. look at that. look at that. is that what you want politics to look like because if not, you need to get out and stop being the weakling that you are and criticize donald trump because this is what he wants the future of american politics to look like. and, you know, obviously, i expect you to say nothing because far worse than this is you have a president demanding

that his opponent be arrested by the attorney general because he's losing in the polls. you have a president who is saying to the supreme court, hey, fix this for me. i'm going to lose. i appointed you, rig this election process for me because i'm going to lose. so i appointed you, amy coney barrett, i expect you to rig this election for me. >> yeah. >> it's not me talking. that's the president of the united states who said he was going to appoint you so you'd rig the election for him. and he said this past weekend that he was -- he's thank you in advance for rigging the election for him. not my words, his words. again for republicans, is this really how you want american politics to do look? >> joining us from florida is dave aronberg and also from duke university law school and legal

analyst guy charles. good to have you on board. we can start there. dave aronberg, just that traffic incident it seems to many that would be unlawful on many different levels. >> yes. this is how democracies die. in a fully functioning democracy you wouldn't have the leader celebrating the armed supports bullies the opponents. that's why i'm glad that the fbi is investigating and i hope that state investigators investigate here. it could be violations of voter intimidation. it could be possibly aggravated assault if someone was waving a gun at the bus. there could be attempted false imprisonment. but it's still a bad luck especially among suburban women who will decide have this election. and plus this incident has been so widely reported much more so than the original event where the bus was headed. so i think this whole thing has really turned off a lot of

people. also, i want to find out who in the trump campaign is encouraging all these people to block traffic. because nothing could be a worst closing argument than traffic jams, whether in new york or new jersey. also new york and new jersey are blue states where donald trump won't win, but they have down ticket republicans who will suffer. this puts an end to the theory that there's a shy trump voter out there. in fact, they sere some of the loudest and proudest people out there. if anything they may be shy biden voters out there because they don't want to be run off the road. >> professor guy, i want to ask you about this case in texas. the supreme court there yesterday denied an attempt by republicans to invalidate more than 120,000 votes from ballots cast at drive through centers in harris county.

the effort to disenfranchise voters there, largely democrats, will move to the federal level. the lawsuit argues that ten drive through sites are operating illegally and arranged in areas that favor democrats but the all-republican state supreme court disagreed giving the texas democrats hope that it will be denied. the system was unanimously approved by harris county commissioners after being tested in a pilot program over the summer. so professor, what exactly was the argument here from republicanss? this was agreed upon. this is the way they vote in that area. >> you know, the argument from republicans is completely baseless. there really is no legal basis for this argument. they're essentially arguing that what harris county is doing is unconstitutional because the state legislature is the only one that has the power to change the voting rules. not only was this agreed upon,

but it was consistent with state law so there's no legal basis to disenfranchise over 100,000 voters who have relied upon an agreement by the state and by state law to vote. this is simply trying to rig the game in order to get an outcome that we want. it is not consistent with law. there's no legal basis here. >> all right. also working, dave aronberg, on miami-dade county and efforts there to hurt the vote there. what are you hearing? >> well, mika, the images of stacks of election mail at that postal facility really struck a nerve around the country because it reeked of voter suppression. that area of miami-dade it has a large minority population and even if the cause of it was negligence and not intentional

misconduct, dejoy has not earned the benefit of the doubt and that's what my colleague called for the audit of all of the postal distribution centers to make sure there's no other undelivered election mail out there and the feds are looking at the post office to see if there's any mail there and they found in the one facility there were 42 absentee ballots that had yet to be mailed to voters and to be counted that weren't sent on. that's been fixed but florida is a narrow state and every vote counts clearly. the only way we found out about this was because of the courageous whistle-blower, a postal employee who took a secret video and then leaked it to the local state representative, otherwise those stacks of mail would be there today. >> the president of the united states is very signaling they're going to send in lawyers to the states where mail-in vote counts

take a while. we know they'll take a while and because they take a day or two or three does not mean there's fraud, it does not mean the election is rigged. it means that's how the system works and they're literally counting the votes. the president wants to vote to end on election night but that's not how our system works. the way you see it, a couple of date after the election, a week after the election, if the president's campaign does send attorneys in to pennsylvania, in to florida and michigan and wisconsin, what does that mean? how long can this play out? >> this could play out for a long time. the first thing again, the argument that the election ends on election day is a specious argument. it's not a strong, legal argument. it again has no basis in facts. so one of the things that we're worried about are seeing the types of manufactured legal arguments that are meant to drag out the process. so it is possible that, you

know, you have the absentee ballot questions. you have the signature matching questions and there are legal issues if it comes down to the state like florida or to pennsylvania or north carolina that could drag out the process for a week or two, depending upon how close it is and what the legal questions are. but we also have to recognize when there's no legal basis to some of the arguments that we're seeing manufactured as a way of rigging the outcome and we have to call those out. >> all right. professor charles, thank you very much for being with us and dave aronberg, thank you as well. hey, reverend al, i read a disturbing article last night just about the industry, the vote suppression industry that the republican party has mastered over the past decade. and yes, i was a republican and yes, i was involved in the 2000 election and part of the

election i was involved in was in northwest florida and we held rallies and what we tried to do this -- and this mattered to republicans at least in my neck of the woods back then, we wanted to make sure that every military voter overseas got his or her vote counted even if it came in after election day. that mattered to republicans back then and we got the county commissioner -- you know, we had to pressure him -- we held big rallies but we made sure that every man and woman in uniform and their family members got their absentee vote counted even after they came in after election day. now you have republicans fighting that, but i've got a question for you. do you know how many times -- i must say as much as i follow politics, this shocked me. you know how many times republicans have won the majority of the votes in a

presidential election since 1988? >> no, i do not. >> one time. let's just stop for one second and think about that. the republican party has won the most votes in a presidential election one time since 1988. and with demographics the way they are, republicans are going to continue working harder every day to suppress the vote of americans. but, you know, call me old fashioned, i'm not talking about the electoral college here. i'm just saying, i mean, you and i grew up to believe one man, one vote. one woman, one vote. one person, one vote. but republicans lost the popular

vote in '92, in '96, 2000 and 2008 and 2012, 2016. and yet, they own the united states supreme court. >> well, you know, you and i also grew up baptist and the bible says that what a man sows they shall also reap. rather that have the party expand to meet the demographics if they had invested in that and would do that now they'd be more competitive. they're shrinking while trying to suppress rather than expanding as they embrace the new and growing america. and they have become the victim of their own plan and own strategy. it's going to lead to their becoming politically not only

impotent but historically irrelevant over the next two or three cycles. >> all right. all of this campaigning, by the way, on the part of president trump is happening as coronavirus is spreading across the country, hot spots are cropping up and cases are cropping up and even deaths in his wake. and yesterday, the uk announced a one-month lockdown, but despite all of that, president trump's rally in south florida late last night ran past miami-dade county's 11:00 p.m. curfew and while he criticized the coronavirus restrictions the crowd began chanting fire fauci. and here's how the president responded. >> fire fauci! fire fauci! fire fauci! fire fauci!

>> don't tell anybody, but let me wait till a little bit after the election. i appreciate the advice. i appreciate it. no, he's been wrong on -- he's a nice man though. he's been wrong on a lot. >> he's been wrong a lot? he's the guy that was telling you it was coming back in the fall. no, it's not. he's the guy that told you hydroxychloroquine was not the miracle cure, yes, it is it's the miracle cure. of course when you needed a miracle cure you stayed as far away from it. he's the guy -- the group of your people at the fda who had to warn americans not to put bleach inside their bodies. they had to actually go out -- this guy has been cleaning up your mess from day one and

you're saying he's been wrong? you know what's so funny is when you're talking to woodward -- funny in sort of a you killed 200,000 people way, but what's so ironic you were telling bob woodward in february on tape what actually the doctor that you're talking about getting rid of has been saying publicly. the difference between you and him is, he's been saying it publicly, you have been saying it privately and then you have been lying to the american public and letting them die. letting them die despite the fact that you knew better. >> yeah. so -- look -- >> you're going to fire him for saying what you actually were telling bob woodward in february? that's interesting. >> this president is going against all health guidelines and holding the rallies across the country and now the public health departments are tracking the uptick in coronavirus cases,

due to his rallies and deaths. due to his rallies. >> do you know who else is tracking them? >> it's like kind of like a murder trip across the country. >> do you know who else is tracking quit? >> who? >> voters. seniors. let's bring in dr. vin gupta. an msnbc medical contributor. let's not play into the outrage, the outrage porn that donald trump tries to get everybody to follow and let's just talk numbers now. how bad is the situation? i know 220,000 people according to johns hopkins are dead because of the virus that the president said that it was one person from china and then it was 15 people and now 220,000 people are dead and he had anthony fauci saying it would come back stronger in the fall and the president said it would not come back in the fall. here we are in the fall. what's the situation going in to

election day? oh, we don't have his audio. we don't have his audio right now. willie geist, the situation obviously very bad going into election day and i -- here's another example, trump gets -- no, he doesn't. you look at the seniors who were watching at the rallies and they're horrified and it's showing up in the polls. >> that's right. he has a few thousand people who are cheering, saying fire fauci, but he doesn't have the vision to see beyond that rally which is a country that is consumed by coronavirus, that understands based on what doctors and public health officials are saying that this is getting worse and that in fact what dr. fauci told us back in february and march that it would rear its head in the fall and winter perhaps worse is happening because the president

hasn't taken it seriously because we're not mitigating. he's completely off base and going for chants at the rally and completely off base and dr. fauci was critical of dr. scott atlas, another doctor on the task force, who president trump is listening to and not the other qualified doctors like dr. anthony fauci. dr. atlas was a twitter troll, he was tweeting at dr. fauci and he did an interview yesterday. when the chant fire fauci came out, let me get to after the election and talking about that and suggesting he's going to get rid of the leading infection disease expert if he in fact wins re-election. >> certainly the president has been unhappy with dr. fauci for

a while. first of all, dr. fauci he has such high poll numbers, the president is jealous of that and he feels fauci makes the focus on the epidemic. as we know, the president is trying to turn the page, as absurd as that sounds considering we have record numbers of infections each and every day and fauci said that the joe biden campaign, he said that candidate was focused on the public health crisis. and that the other campaign was focused on other things, not naming trump by names but suggesting that trump is much more interested in reopening the economy and not the pandemic. dr. atlas is not an infectious disease expert to be clear. atlas walks around the white house without a mask, he doesn't believe in masks. he's tweeted about it. yes, he gave that interview yesterday to rt, had to be registered under the foreign registration agents act.

he later apologized for it and that's who the president is listening to right now not dr. fauci and joe biden if he wins he's already committed to retaining dr. fauci to his position. >> i wonder how comrade atlas will fare, mika? >> who knows? dr. gupta, i believe we have your audio now. i have referring to the university study in which they created a model estimating that at least 30,000 coronavirus infections and 700 deaths rutting from 18 campaign rallies. you know, the numbers could be worse at this point. we don't know. thousands of people squished together for months at rallies across the country. the last one i can remember maybe in june in tulsa where herman cain was there and he died although you can't officially link his death to the rally. nobody would want to do it because he could have gotten it somewhere else. having said that, these rallies

every two weeks there are people with symptoms who are then going whoa, maybe this isn't a hoax. i'm not sure they're having the net positive effect the president wants. the rallies are a danger in terms of spreading covid, are they not? >> you bet, mika. good morning. here's the thing. i wish people could see -- i wish your viewers can see what i see, my colleagues see, inside the icu here that's why i'm wearing green scrubs. the petering down of the dogma to georgia, arkansas, tennessee, these are states led by governors who made it all by impossible to vote by mail. and they have made it all but impossible to actually mandate masks. georgia in particular. these places that we have our eye on. our colleagues as places for resurgences of the coronavirus and some cases it's already happening in indiana, post

election day, mika. you have people who don't believe in masks. the dakotas, for example, they're going to be congregating because they have no other choice, so these type of -- these actions by scott atlas on twitter, obviously the president demonstrating bad behavior, they have real consequences. if only people saw it was actually happening, if they saw what it was like to be on a ventilator, we flip a patient on their belly that's been in the hospital for four weeks here. this is not a good outcome, no one deserves it. >> dr. vin gupta, thank you very, very much. we are just past the top of the hour. lit's bring in msnbc contributor mike barnicle and national affairs analyst, co-host of showtime's "the circus," john heilemann. host of "way too early," kasie hunt. house editor for the cook political report, dave wasserman

joins us and mark caputo who covers florida politics. >> 40 years ago, dave wasserman you said looking at the congressional polls that actually there wasn't the intensity for hillary clinton, that the momentum was behind donald trump. four years later what does it look like in all of the local polls that you're seeing, all of the congressional polls you are seeing. what trends are you picking up that we missed in some of the media polls? >> joe, there's a lot more clarity heading into election day this year than there was four years ago and one of the reasons is the district level polls. keep in mind, most of the polling taken about the presidential race actually occurs at the district level because the parties who are making strategic investment allocation decisions across the battleground and around 60 competitive house races are constantly polling the district to see whether biden or trump is ahead. what we see have seen consistently in both democratic and republican polls most of

which have not been made public, trump is underperforming his 2016 margin in the key races. and in pennsylvania, the northern suburbs of pittsburgh, the detroit suburbs and that aligns with the state level polls we are seeing showing poll underperforming by seven or eight points and trump had very little room to fall to begin with. so the portrait of the race is quite clear. >> so dave, this weekend i heard republican operatives that -- high up in the gop on the hill were getting numbers in especially from suburban districts and they just said it was like numbers they have never seen before, that republican candidates were just getting absolutely slaughtered in the

suburbs. is that what you're seeing and if that's what is the case, does that turn let's say georgia, does that turn georgia blue because of the bleeding in say the suburbs of atlanta? >> joe, trump has become so radioactive in what i would call whole foods suburbs or highly college educated suburbs they're turning into political super fund sites for down-ballot republicans. i got off the phone with a -- with someone tracking texas state house races. i would not be surprised, joe, at this point of any combination of a win/loss for either candidate in florida, north carolina, georgia and texas. i think those four states are going to be decided by a point or two either way. but in texas, you have historical record shattering turnout particularly in the suburbs of dallas, austin, houston, san antonio, with

potentially dire down-ballot consequences. keep in mind, even though we don't pay that much attention to state legislature houses but if the democrats capture the state house in texas, that would prevent republicans from redrawing the map in texas for the next ten years. we could be on the cusp for a historical realignment of our electoral map. >> dave, caputo, are you hearing the same thing out of florida? i know we're looking at the same -- mark caputo, you and i are looking at the same data and we're seeing how close the race is. i'm curious though, mark, are you seeing the same thing in polls around the state in florida especially more of the suburban areas that while it's not a seven-point race certainly those suburbs a lot of republican suburbs are starting to go blue. >> well, a good example would be tampa's hillsborough county

which is a very large urban county. it has a relatively larger white population than miami-dade county in southeast florida. and joe biden's lead has been there as 11 points and i think hillary won it by less than double digits so we are seeing that kind of more suburban march by biden in the various polls. but the thing is in florida, you know, the smartest and dumbest things said in politics it's all about turnout. we are looking at strong republican turnout now that early in person voting is over. and they were showing out in force and we are looking at an election we haven't seen before and we don't have a good guidepost for what composition of the electorate we'll have on election day. the bottom line in florida, if the republican's share of the ballots about is 38% and the democrats are 37% and the

independents are rest, they think that joe biden is ahead by more than four percentage points. but the thing is they have to hold it to the r plus 1 electorate and now it's almost even and the republicans have a lot of high propensity voters in reserve and they're ready to show up in force but can the democrats turn out the more sporadic voters, get a share of the whites and seniors like hillary clinton did. >> republicans think they have about a 300,000 vote advantage right now when it comes to the high propensity voters. we have about 2 million though, 2 million in independence and third parties. the republicans think maybe it's -- biden leads by four to five percentage points and biden

can be leading between 12 and 16%. if it's 9% or 10% that could be enough to make the state break biden's way. what are you hearing about those independents, the third party voters that are probably by the end of election day 2.5 million voters. what's your gut on that? what's your reporting tell you? what does your gut as a florida reporter tell you? someone who's covered this state for a very, very long time. >> you learn that there's a constant battle between your gut and your head and you're better off looking at the data and saying, well, we'll see what happens. in this case, you know, biden's lead could be anywhere between four and ten points with independents and that's where the election here in florida will lie and potentially the election race for the white house is going to be decided. >> yeah. let's go right now to the big board. we have willie geist who actually is the understudy for the rage, steve kornacki.

>> let's see how this goes. >> we'll just throw it to you. >> we're resting kornacki's pipes. he's got a big day tomorrow. i want to play vanna white for you and go through the map here. this is the nbc swing state map so we have the states that you see in gray, nbc has estimated our swing states right now. but if i move across the upper midwest, dave, i turn minnesota, i turn wisconsin and i turn michigan blue that gets us to 248. i don't know if you can see our map but i'll kind of let you guide me a cross here and show us all of the paths that joe biden may have to victory. what do you see falling to biden? >> yeah. willie, well, look, pennsylvania and arizona would represent his clearest path to 270. in addition to the states. right now, i do believe that joe biden holds a lead in both of them. look, polling has consistently

undershot the voters in arizona and overshot in pennsylvania. from there, look, i think biden is going to win nevada. the early vote data there is compiled by john rolston. makes clear that the democrats do have a strong advantage there. but then you get into texas, florida, georgia and north carolina. i'm going to be a bit controversial and say that bidencare bidencare bid bidbide bidencarerys georgia. we are seeing in the final polls that trump has been durable with in support with hispanic voters, and we'll see. the line between 300 and about 400 electoral votes from joe biden is quite thin because of the four states. >> we're giving arizona, this is the wasserman map. we're giving arizona to joe biden and pennsylvania to joe

biden. what about ohio? >> i'm going to stick with donald trump in ohio and iowa. >> okay. okay. all right. so you can see under that scenario -- what about new hampshire? >> biden. >> okay. so you can see under -- this is the wasserman map. so john heilemann, there are a lot of paths to victory let's be blunt about it for joe biden. if you grant him based on the polls and what we're seeing the state of wisconsin and the state of michigan all of a sudden he just needs to grab one of the states, north carolina, georgia, florida, texas would put it far out of reach. but he's got a lot of directions he can go if he does in fact control the upper midwest. >> yeah. that's all true. and i would say to begin with there's a lot of things that dave wasserman said a lot of things that i agree with. i'm trying to get to as many

interesting places as i can. i was down in texas on saturday. up in iowa on saturday. so i have a little bit of insight into both of the places and i think that it's right, and there's an increasingly large number of people on the inside of both campaigns and in the world that dave inhabits, people who are deeply immersed in the current data, that suggests that georgia is a state -- that people are feeling now that joe biden is more likely to win georgia than to win florida that's a starting point. on all of the data and the time i spent in texas, there's a chance that biden can win and it would be the biggest thing that would happen in this election cycle and would portend a change in the electoral map that can stretch out a generation. and the new poll put donald trump ahead in there and no one in the state who thinks that

poll is right. and how extreme it was, it put donald trump up by seven points in iowa after being a tie the last time they did the poll a couple of months ago. but people inside joni ernst's campaign and the republican worlds in iowa all are confident that donald trump will win in iowa. but is more likely to win by two or three points rather than what the poll said which is seven or the nine he won with in 2016. even if you're confident that donald trump wins iowa now, if he wins iowa six points below his share of the vote in 2016 what does that tell you if that kind of slippage holds in the other states in the great lakes region, the rust belt states, where the demography is similar. if donald trump's dropped six points in michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania which is sort of what the data suggests right now, the public and the private data it means that all three of the states are gone for donald

trump. now the last thing i'll say -- >> really quickly about the numbers, john, then the last point. i'm so skeptical of the polls because of 2000. but i see biden ahead by six, seven points, they might as well put him ahead by 40. if they're that off in florida, are they that off in wisconsin, are they that off in pennsylvania? are they that off in arizona or in texas or in georgia? >> well, i defer -- i defer to dave who will have a more comprehensive view of the polling but the poll average in florida is what you have to pay attention to, not to the outlier polls and the more credible polls. they all have made iowa -- i'm sorry, made florida an extraordinarily close race and

dave wasserman, correct me if i'm wrong, i think in florida, trump is up by one or two. which is what both campaigns thing. i wouldn't call it a resignation, but an acknowledgement in biden's world and they're trying to pull florida across. they don't think it's lost but i think the -- now within with the high command of the two campaigns and what i call elite data consumers this notion that gave put forward which he's been nodding to over the last week or so, it could be the case that joe biden is more likely to win in georgia than in florida. that is very much taken hold in people's minds and i think, you know, that florida is going to be extraordinarily close. but joe, to your point, the polling -- the poll averages -- forget about the outliers all over the place. i think the poll averages that we're seeing are kind of -- they

feel right relative to what the campaigns think and what i think of avid consumers of up to the minute private and public data and what they think. i want to get to the last point which i think is not -- not an unimportant point. you know, is the case -- you even talk about this for the last few -- a couple weeks really, joe, on the show. the notion that joe biden, if all the votes are counted fairly over the long haul, the notion that joe biden is in a strong -- almost impregnable position in michigan and wisconsin and a strong position in pennsylvania, that he'll win those three states if all of the votes are counted and they're tabulated fairly and people are patient. that joe biden's in a very strong position, those are the three states he only needs to win the presidency. the problem is that none of those three states are going to report the results on election night. i repeat, none of them, they have all said that. no one -- pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan, not going to report on election night.

so what does that mean? that takes us to the likely scenario of donald trump especially if trump has won let's say not implausibly, relatively early on election night can point to the victory in florida, georgia, ohio, he says i'm winning this election, i'm ahead and i'm now going to declare a victory on election night and we don't have results in the three -- in those three great lakes states, we don't have results in pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, we are suing to stop the count, we're now going to count in all three of the places. we'll see you in the judiciary, which i think is a very likely -- very likely scenario that could play out on election night that's why -- that's why the leads in those states at least in the long run it matters who the president is. but the short run, the fact

they're not reporting on election night and the chaos we will see ensue is very important to us. >> yeah, dogs and cats living together. well, if donald trump proclaims victory on election night before the votes are counted, i will have willie place the green jacket on my back as -- and declare myself the 2021 masters champion. >> okay. >> dave wasserman, let's follow-up with what john heilemann was asking you halfway through his discussion and that is what polls are more reliable? i heard you say that pollsters have traditionally undercounted the midwest for trump and they have undercounted the southwest for biden and democrats. take us around the country. what about in the deep south? is that -- is that -- do you

still think that's happening right now? >> yeah. that's the bet i have been leaning in to. now, florida has behaved in polling much more like the midwest. polling has undershot republicans in florida and in 2016 in north carolina. georgia has been a mixed bag and the polling has been fairly accurate in georgia in 2016 and 2018. but look, with a day to go there's more mystery to me about the red wall and whether that will crumble or crack for republicans in the sunbelt as opposed to the blue wall where we have seen a consistent advantage for biden that's been backed up by the district level polling. and there is -- and to respond to something that john said, look, we could have a red mirage in the north on election night. there's a difference, by the way, between having results and having final results. we are going to see votes reported out of the northern

states on election night, but the problem is we won't have the absentee votes counted in many counties so it's essential to see whether counties are near fully reported, in other words, are they well beyond their 2016 total votes cast before we make judgments? it could be quite apparent joe biden could be on his way to wink winning pennsylvania because we'll have complete results showing him running well ahead of hillary clinton's margin, even if we don't have the votes cast in philadelphia counted also. in wisconsin they're counting the mail-in votes in the same words as the election votes so that potential for a red mirage could be reduced. but in the sunbelt, in the south, we could see a blue mirage where the very first reporting counties are the overwhelmingly democratic batches of early votes in texas, north carolina and florida so we

have to be careful and wait. >> great advice for the viewers. thank you for being with us. and again, talking about the red mirage up north, the blue mirage in the south. great way to look at it is, you know, again, with the absentee votes when they're all counted in florida, joe biden was up by about 400. the difference between democrats and republicans about 430,000. we're now down after republicans did in-person voting over a week or two, you're now down to 100,000. so you're going to have joe biden getting the majority, probably overwhelming majority of the absentee ballots in pennsylvania and across upper midwest, the only difference is that florida counts those before election day. the midwest counts after election day that's why you may see a red mirage up north, a blue mirage in florida and joe biden may start off 200,000

votes ahead and then donald trump will be spending the rest of the night as same-day voting is counted trying to catch up to whatever margin he's leading by. >> well, the candidates are hopscotching the countries in the final 24 hours with some big names by the sides. hard to imagine, kasie hunt, who could be -- you know, whose mind could be changed at this point but you're looking at georgia as well and like dave said it's possible for biden. >> certainly everyone i'm talking to on both sides of the aisle believes that and the sense that georgia as john heilemann noted may be more certain in terms of being on the joe biden said of the ledger than florida is a pretty remarkable shift and as, you know, we showed on that map really changes the electoral college breakdown. i think the fundamental story here is about suburban women in particular. and it's suburban women in

potentially these big southern cities that have in the past represented a republican red wall. places like atlanta and phoenix, houston, dallas. all of my sources are looking at what's going on in texas, the incredibly early vote number. the early vote is a tricky situation to grapple with because you don't want to read too much into it, but in texas, the early voting turnout is off the charts. the entirety of turnout and all of my sources are saying, well, there is something happening in texas. no one can really explain it. partly because it hasn't been a swing state for such a long time. people are -- you know, i'm sure dave wasserman was looking at the district level. we know that the state legislature could flip and there's something happening there and ted cruz was out saying that the way that donald trump has impacted things, it's about big suburban states. he didn't say texas outright, but what is texas really? we think of rural texas but it's

quite a few big cities with a lot of suburbs, women who are very unhappy with the president of the united states. that's my question. and mark caputo, i don't know how that applies in florida and it may not partly because there's more non-white noncollege voters but i'm curious on your take on the gender gap because it's probably bigger than it's ever been and how that plays out both in the polling and what you're seeing on the ground in florida. >> it's big here. what you just have to remember with florida is, you know, the stereotype, even the governor said we're god's waiting room. we have a large retiree population and one of the things i could say in just observing the voting patterns of relatives who are older is that older women really didn't like hillary clinton very much. and one of the selling points that republicans are trying to use to get trump back to the trump fold is kamala harris, not

their dislike of joe biden. so to the degree that there is a gender gap that's forming and that's bigger, i think you're seeing the senior women, white women especially who are coming more to the democratic fold than they -- when they had been drifting farther right and they went a little more republican in 2016. it's complicated polling in florida as well and the problem is we have such a big and dynamic population. got a lot of senior, two-thirds of our population is white. 13% is black. the remainder are a mish-mash of different multiracial groups. few asian-americans thrown in. so if you don't have large polling sample sizes you're going to miss important demographic groups and the other problem we're having is that not realizing that turnout matters. if you have a bunch more republicans showing up in the

election, guess who wins, versus the democrats. dave wasserman was the first one to publicly start talking about it, if you want to watch one county, watch sumter county. one of the things i'm going to looking for is more in those heavily white counties. lee county, sumter county with the retirees and then pinellas county which has a large white retiree population and the black population as well. they vote by mail and that's an easy early call to see how the tampa region will vote and that's one of the swing areas of the swing states. >> mark caputo, thank you very much. it's great having you with us. can't wait to see you election night. so willie, to mark's point,

you look at voting turnout. it would be a real surprise if joe biden weren't up by 200,000, 300,000, maybe 350,000 votes on -- going in to election day. after all of the votes are counted before election day voting and turnout is going to be really important. if there ends up being like 11 million voters in florida, democrats believe joe biden will win. if it starts getting over 11 1/2 million votes which that's -- my gosh, there's about 80%, talk about a record breaking turnout, then at that point it gets really, really close. so voter turnout means a lot. again, not to be too inside baseball, but the question that republicans and democrats alike are asking is this.

did republicans cannibalize their election day voting with all of the early voting we have seen so far? it's the same question republicans were asking of democrats when they were 430,000 votes ahead. we won't know that until later in the evening. but we will know early on just as mark and dave have said. you're going to be at the big board at 7:15, 7:30 when those numbers start coming in in sumter county, the villages, piniella county. it will be a fascinating night. >> it really is. first of all, just fun to listen to you and mark talk about the florida politics. you go county by county, i get the sense you'd go house by house to see how people will vote. it's fun to watch. as we said this is one of the states that you won't have to wait the way you'll have to wait in pennsylvania to know what it looks like and to know what the entire election looks like. if your vote comes in the way

you're saying it is, then it's game over. mike barnicle, you have joe biden in western pennsylvania, beaver county and pittsburgh later on tonight. through all of the hand wringing is joe biden the right candidate, here he sits in a position he really couldn't have had to be in a better one when you look at the polls that are happening in michigan and wisconsin, the democrats have known that they needed to snatch back from donald trump. if you can drive home pennsylvania where he's at tonight he's sitting pretty. >> you know, willie, you're absolutely right and it's an amazing story that joe biden is where he is today when you consider where he was in february and late january in this country electorally. and the biden campaign, this past 20, 25 minutes has been absolutely fascinating as well as incredibly educational about the voting content in this

country. and you can -- all the analytics, all the logger rhythms, and algorithms when it comes to getting out the vote you have to get out the vote and the biden campaign has been very old school sophisticated in a way. they have run like they're behind every day. and they go to places like today he's going to be in northwest pennsylvania. they particularly seek out places where donald trump in 2016 ran upwards to 60% of the vote and if they can cut it down to this time he wins by 48%, 52%, they're going to win that state. they go to florida and the language they use internally when you speak to the biden people, no, they never use the word confident. they insert the word comfortable. they're comfortable with the way they're going in georgia and

they're comfortable with what happens in texas, and harris county, kasie was just talking about it. harris county is phenomenal. houston, phenomenal turnout. see how it ends up and the biden campaign had an old-school magic in how they approached it but here they are. >> real quick on florida, joe, a lot of republicans who have decided that they're going to vote for biden and they have come out and i wonder the impact the jeb bush or a george w. bush could have if they believe in american values and democracy -- but they wouldn't speak out. >> i don't know. i mean -- >> i don't get it. >> a lot of republicans have spoken out. >> a lot have. like tom ridge. >> a lot of them have. >> but why not -- >> you know what? i think that's up to them to make their own decisions, not you or me. >> they have made them. >> and it's hard to say how much

that's going to influence voters. i think most voters are still influenced, but -- >> that would be impactful. >> as hard as it is is to believe, there are some voters that could be swayed over the next day and we'll see how it goes. and especially in the state of iowa, mika. that is a -- regardless of what one poll said, that is a state that's still up for grabs. >> so let's talk about that. because joining us now we have the democratic candidate for u.s. senate in iowa, theresa greenfield. thank you so much and how is the campaign going? the polls are showing this could be a tough fight. >> well, absolutely this is a tough fight. we knew that when we launched our campaign 500 days ago and it's going to be a donnybrook and how we'll win it is the strong grass roots team.

we have thousands of volunteers across the state and they're out there turning out the vote right now. >> so theresa, what has been the focus of your campaign, what has resonated with voters and made you a contender? >> well, i'll tell you what, i got into the campaign to put iowans first and we have gone out, done over 350 campaign events around the state. and just talking to folks. you know, health care is the number one issue that's on their minds. they can't afford their premiums or deductibles. seniors are getting gouged for prescription drugs. they're worried about the rural hospitals staying open. and of course they know that senator ernst voted to end the affordable care act which could close their hospitals, end their protections for pre-existing conditions. in addition to that though, our farmers are struggling. they need a fair shot. they need their markets back and they need a senator who will be a friend to farmers. >> all right. kasie hunt has the next

question. >> good morning. i want to ask you about president trump because joni ernst the incumbent senator has really embraced the president. we have seen selfies with them together. she has been focused on that many times when i questioned her in washington. do you think that embrace of president trump is a problem for joni ernst? >> well, obviously, i'll let everybody else decide that, you know? i'm focused on winning this race and winning the voters here in iowa. they are independent minded, independent thinkers, independent voters. when you look at having voted for the democratic senator tom harken, republican senator chuck grassley over and over again, they're looking for senators that are going to work together, they're looking for senators that are going to put iowans first. that's where senator ernst is going to fail in this election. she told us she was going to be independent and different and make them squeal. and yet, she went to washington and she joined party leadership.

she votes 97% of the time with mitch mcconnell and party leaders and leaving the everyday iowans behind on things like the health care. >> this is willie geist, good to have you on the show and i want to ask you about the tariffs and the impact on the state of iowa. president trump said the trade war has been good for farmers in iowa, you were raised on a farm, worked on a far your entire life. are tariffs good for farmers in iowa? >> tell you what, joni ernst and tariffs are the reason that corn prices are down so it's not been good for iowa. net farm income is down about 75%. and i grew up during the farm crisis when interest rates were 21%. i went to bankruptcy auctions is, they were every week. i saw the contents of the family's home put out in card board boxes and auctioned off and the families left our

communities. families shouldn't have to struggle and it's part of the reason i'm in this race. haphazard trade, reckless tariffs and it's been devastating to our farm and ag industry and our manufacturers who have been laying people off. jobs have been lost. farmers want their markets back, they want to compete and that's something i'm focused on. >> theresa greenfield, thank you for being on the show this morning. so john heilemann, you have been across the country it's not fear and loathing on the campaign trail. more like fear and loathing on the covid trail. and tell me -- give me as historians, even gonzo historians write about the 2020 campaign what's going to be their thesis? >> well, i think, joe, that your

covid campaign thing is right. in the end this race is going to -- the history books will record it as the race that covid transformed and i think that, you know, everywhere that i have been i started my day on saturday in texas and went to iowa, from there i went up to minnesota and out to montana to see steve bullock as he fights to try to win that race, that senate race in montana. i'm now waking up here in cleveland where joe biden has added a lead event in ohio at the urging of sherrod brown. he was supposed to do pennsylvania events only today but they decided to make one last stop in ohio. a place he hasn't spent much time. he's here now and people are thinking that ohio a state -- the bloomberg people will note in addition to texas they decided to put money into ohio

because they thought this race is something that joe biden can steal and i'll go on from here to georgia and south carolina and the covid story -- it hovers over everything. i'll give you one example. the steve bullock race, he as a governor shut the state down early in march, he took a lot of flak for it in montana. but had a low coronavirus rate for all of the spring. the winter and spring. did an early reopening and got through the summer with the management of covid being a political asset. 100 money million dollars poured into the race and the most expensive but here the coronavirus is spiking. a thousand people got the virus last friday, a record in the state and the death total is now over 300. suddenly covid in the closing days is the dominant issue

that's being discussed. so that's how historians i think will think about it. whatever the outcome is, coronavirus has transformed our world and our country and it's touched every aspect of the campaign especially in these closing days as it surges across the country. >> all right. john heilemann, thank you very much. coming up, former national security adviser susan rice joins us with her take on tomorrow's election. and the president's reported plan to claim victory before all of the votes are counted. we'll talk about that. "morning joe" is back in a moment. "morning joe" is back in a moment dolph lundgren, you've got a one-sixty i.q., a master's in chemical engineering and you're technically a genius... and it appears you're quite the investor. i like to trade. well, td ameritrade has pros ready if you need help, say

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welcome back. mike barnicle, we want to read a bit from your new piece in the daily beast entitled joe biden's grief is the dna of his humanity. and in it, you write in part, not a day goes by in joe biden's

life that he doesn't think if only for a moment a single second about those lost to him. anyone who has endured that type of pain that would be a majority of us know that the main way to counteract the lasting grief is to get up, get going, hold on to each day, define a purpose for living even if it's for others and open yourself and your heart to understanding that you are not alone. so here he is, joe biden on the edge of achieving an office he's sought, dreamed of obtaining and has prepared for for years. he has a calm about him, a peace earned by living a life knowing that a knock on the door, a phone ringing in the night could arrive with an instant detour from the best of plans. and mike, i mean, it's -- it's lost so many times over from the loss of his wife and his baby

early on in his life to the near loss of his life from a brain aneurysm to the loss of his son from cancer. he's endured it all and he hasn't let it get him down, but yet he's used it to others and that is something that for those who know joe biden they know his story and the number of people is growing at this point. >> you know, mika, you just put your finger on the whole sum, not the whole sum of joe biden, but a big part of joe biden. he has an awareness of others which i think is important in any leader or any human being. the piece that you read revolves around kenny who worked for him when he first ran for the senate and charlie ran his son, charlie

kenny jr., a marine, a week from going to afghanistan in july of 2012 to a heart seizure. and a friend of charlie's got ahold of john kerry who called joe biden and the vice president of the vice who cared charlie that night, the night that charlie kenny sr. found out about his son's death and joe called him and charlie kenny also pointed out that something that very few of us think about because sadly you know we just don't think about it. but when you lose something, charlie kenny sr. said people think you suffer for a while and then you don't, but then the suffering of losing a child is in your dna forever. and he spoke to me about joe biden losing his wife and his daughter at the age of 29 and then losing his son at the age of 72. and carrying that burden all those years, and it's still an

amazing -- an amazing thing to witness. joe biden out there, reaching out to people and he knows the concept of loss and so many of us in this country due to covid and the economy have many of th calls has he made over some 50 years? mike's piece is up at "the daily beast".com right now. right now susan rice. her recent book titled tough love, my story of the things worth fighting for. ambassador rice, great to have you on the show this morning. first, from a national security perspective, what do you make of the president's reported plan to stand up relatively early in the night tomorrow night and to declare victory. as we have said here, we will be on peacock tv. we won't take those comments if he makes them. but what do you make of what that could mean for the country? what could that unleash? >> well, in the first instance, willie, i think we all need to be calm.

we need to be patient. we need to recognize, as you have said many times this morning and many days before today, this is going to be a process where we have to be patient. we are not going to know the results necessarily in a number of very important states, and the most important thing we all can do for our democracy, for our national security is to get out and vote, to make sure that every one of us who is not yet made it to the polls, not yet dropped off their mail-in ballot in the drop box does so. at the end of the day the american people are going to decide this election, not donald trump and his lies and rhetoric and efforts to sow confusion and chaos. it's going to be the american people. if we all get out and vote i am confident that we have an outcome that reflects the will of the american people. i believe that means joe biden and kamala harris will be going to the white house. but whatever the outcome it

needs to be that which is decided by the people, not donald trump on a whim and his effort to just, you know, perpetuate himself in power at whatever cost. that will not fly. >> and the votes will be counted. they will be counted legally, fairly, and those couple of days will not mean there is fraud or rigged election. it will mean the process is working the way it's supposed to work in those states. on the other count about foreign interference, we talked about it after the 2016 election, are you and the people in your national security circles seeing as much of it this time around? how much should we be thinking about that here? >> well, i think we definitely have to understand it is a factor. and the threat comes principally from russia despite the trump administration's effort to confuse us about that. and russia will be persistent. we need to look for the potential that after the

election, after tuesday in this period of protracted counting and uncertainty, that they get on the bandwagon, it seems in conjunction with donald trump, to try to sow concern and chaos. the fbi, the department of homeland security have warned about that, and we can't fall for it. we know the trick now. they have done it. they have been running this play on us now for some years. the american people need to be smart. we need to be wise about how we consume our information. double-check and triple-check. don't believe everything that comes across your facebook page or across twitter. and we need you all in the media to be extremely careful and responsible about what you report. and then we need to recognize yet again that the russians aren't going to decide this, donald trump is not going to decide this on his own. we get to decide it as the voters. and dwlaes being at the polls today, tomorrow, handing in our

mail-in ballots, so critically important. >> ambassador rice, kasie hunt has a question for you. >> ambassador, to continue and follow up on willie's question, knowing what you know now about interference in the 2016 election and how the then obama administration handled it, is there anything you would do differently? and looking ahead, a lot of members of congress say that the trump administration has not done nearly enough to protect us, this is going to be something we are dealing with for potentially many decades. what would you need to do on day one in a potential biden administration to try and counter this interference? >> well, first of all, as joe biden himself has said, if we have concrete evidence that russia or any other player has interfered in our election again this time, there will be again significant consequences. that is very important. but the other thing, kasie, as you well know covering capitol

hill, there is legislation that has been sitting on mitch mcconnell's desk for years, months, if not years, and they have not moved it. that legislation, if enacted, would make a significant difference in po bolstering our capacity to respond to foreign interference. yes, we have learned a lot over the years. we learned that russia's ability to interfere is not just its efforts to infiltrate our election systems, which is what we were particularly focused on in 2016, but all that they do every day on social media to pit americans against each other, to sow disinformation, to discredit democracy. there is more we can do, and donald trump obviously has an interesting in seeing russian interference continue. he encouraged and welcomed it not just in 2016 but every day since, including this year. and we absolutely need to shut that down. >> former national security advisor susan rice, thank you. it's always great to have you on

the show. we appreciate it. and we have much more still ahead on this day before the election. a slew of new polling to run through. who will win florida and what about the midwest? we are breaking down all the new numbers on this election eve. "morning joe" is back in a moment. - [announcer] meet the ninja foodi air fry oven. make family-sized meals fast. and because it's a ninja foodi, it can do things no other oven can, like flip away.

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wow, there is a big crowd. this is a very big crowd. look at all those cameras over there. can you show the crowd? you know? can you show this crowd? they never talk about our crowd, and in reverse they never talk about sleepy joe's crowd either. it's about 12 people just showed up. 12. look at this crowd. maybe you could take those

cameras and just show over there and over there. >> what is his obsession, by the way, with crowd size? you notice that? he is always -- this is the one measure he has of success. he is still worrying about his inauguration crowd being smaller than mine. it really bugs him. he talked about -- he is still talking about that. does he have nothing better to worry about? did no one come to his birthday party when he was a kid? was he traumatized? what's with the crowds? i have had crowds before, you know. had quite a few. but you know what? our country is going through a

pandemic. that's not what you are supposed be worrying about. >> wow, good morning, and welcome to "morning joe." it is monday, november 2nd. now just one day until the election. if you can believe it. you guys ready? >> hold on. willie, look at your screen, right? and how can you tell it's election week? right? >> yeah. >> i brought out my election week sweater. >> yeah, the new one, yeah. >> i never wear this sweater unless it's election week. >> i like your sweater. >> we do it every four years going back to, what was it, '48? >> yeah, '48. >> yeah. >> willie -- >> your election week sweater, then every week is election week, joe scarborough. >> for about 14 years. >> we have workouts reporter for "the associated press" jonathan lamire and, the silhouettes, what's the deal?

>> i am silhouetting the dogs -- >> the caricature of a dog. host of "politicsnation" and president of the national action network reverend al sharpton. good to have you. >> willie, so let's just start right now. can we just say it right now? just with the whole group here, nobody knows nothing. we don't know who is going to win this election. every poll out seems to be pointing towards a joe biden victory. it seems a lot like 2016 when we were mocked and ridiculed for even suggesting that donald trump could get to 270. so, before people are saying this race is over, they need to take a long, deep breath and understand, you remember what tom brokaw told us back in 19 -- i guess it was in the 21st century, in 2012. or 2008 when we were all saying

that hillary clinton's campaign was over up in new hampshire. the polls were showing obama up by 11, 12 points. everybody wrote her political obituary. and, willie, then the voters went out and decided who they actually wanted to win. >> yeah, that's right. i mean, the difference here is a lot of those voters already have gone out and decided who they want to win. if you look at the data, if you look at the polling and if you look at how consistent the polling has been, your mind and your eyes for data tell you that joe biden has a comfortable lead, but, as our pollster said, this is the most competitive ten-point race he has seen when that new nbc news/wall street journal came out showing joe biden nationally with a ten-point lead. it's going to be a wild night. donald trump signaled that. he said february feffectively wg to flood the zone with our lawyers, and we are going to dispute this election no matter what happens. he is already saying that. meanwhile, there is some reports

that say he could declare victory as early as he can on tuesday night. of course, he will not have won, but he is going to try to say it anyway. >> we are going to show you we are going to be doing coverage on peacock. if donald trump goes out and declares victory, we will be to say don't take the feed. >> right. >> it's not going to happen. we are not going to be a part of any disinformation campaign. we will be doing coverage from 6:00 p.m. to midnight or until this thing is over. election night on peacock. obviously, you can get it on your smart tv, your dumb tv if you have apple tv. you can get it on your apps. download it and see. but, mika, willie brings up a great point. donald trump has spent this past weekend saying that even if he is losing, they are going to flood the zone in pennsylvania with lawyers, and he is already thanked the united states supreme court. he has already thanked them

ahead of time. >> that's the quiet part. >> donald, don't say the quiet part outlockdown. >> he keeps doing it. he already talked about the need to get amy coney barrett on the supreme court so she can rule in his favor on any future election challenges. and this weekend he was thanking the supreme court ahead of time for being nothing more than his political tools to get him four more years in office. >> let me quote president trump himself and say we will see what happens. on this final full day of campaigning -- we will see what happens. we got one day before tomorrow's presidential election. some consider it the most con zen sequential of our lifetimes. trump holds a rally in north carolina this morning and ends with stops in michigan and wisconsin. in between, he will be in biden's hometown of scranton, pennsylvania. joe biden, meanwhile, is focusing his attention today on pennsylvania with one event this

afternoon in beaver county and two events later tonight in pittsburgh. here's why the focus is on pennsylvania, by the way. the latest morning poll, biden leads by nine, 52 to 43%. "the washington post," abc news, and the reuters ips sows polls have biden leading by seven, 51 to 44%. the muilenburg college morning call poll finds biden up five, 49 to 44%, while "the new york times" siena college poll shows biden up by six, 49 to 43%. and the emerson college poll has biden up by four, 50 to 46%. >> jonathan lamire, we have been alonging looking at the data, talking to the campaigns, i think you and i have heard the same thing from both campaigns a week ago. it was more of a toss-up. now the biden camp, even though they are camping out over the next day or two, the biden camp

is feeling more comfortable by the day with a victory in pennsylvania that it's coming in pennsylvania. they are not going to take it for granted. they know how critical it is. and the trump campaign, well, they still think they can win, but certainly are not sounding as confident as they were a week ago. >> that's right, joe. both campaigns publicly, of course, say they can win and are going to win. but behind the scenes it is a little different. let's start with the biden campaign, who has been expressing a quiet confidence throughout this last few weeks about all of the battleground states, but particularly pennsylvania. biden born in scranton, lives next door in delaware. he has been to pennsylvania more than any other battleground state by a huge margin. he and the entire ticket are going to be camped out there today to make sure that pennsylvania comes home, returns to the democratic column. they feel like they have a lead. not a huge one.

not as big as that public polling. but joe biden's going to ohio today. this follows president obama. he will be in georgia. biden himself and harris both were in georgia in recent days as well as the ticket made stops in texas and iowa. this is part of on effort to try to driver an early knockout blow tomorrow night so to prevent what donald trump has said he would do. to make this be about pennsylvania. to snarl it with legal challenges. pennsylvania a state that could take days to return its winner. other states that if biden can win early, pick off, let's say, a georgia that happens much earlier in the night. without it trump has a much more difficult road to 270. the trump campaign, the president himself laid bare yesterday what their strategy is, and that's to hope this is close enough they believe they will be ahead on election night with the votes that are cast that day and he will try to prematurely call victory. let's be clear. that doesn't make him the vick tore because there will be votes

to be counted no matter what legal challenges. his campaign believes they can win pennsylvania but their margin for error is small. it is going to, as one senior advisor put to me over the weekend, going to have to be flawless, they have no margin for error to get the voters out in pennsylvania to overcome the margins they believe joe biden will have. and that's a similar story elsewhere on the map as a final point. they have grown pessimistic about states like minnesota where the president has been in recent days. they also believe that michigan at this point is an extreme long shot even though the president will there for two different rallies today, including his finale in grand rapids. they hope they pull if inside straight in the sun belt where things are very tight and arizona where they're down and then try their best in pennsylvania even if it means going to the courts. >> coming up, what's the biden game plan to turn out the vote, especially belong black voters? reverend al sharpton has his ear

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good to have another human being in the studio. a lonely eight months. you have been through a few presidential campaigns in the final days. where do you see this race right now? obviously, we are looking at these polls nationally, joe biden, some polls showing a double-digit lead, looking comfortable in some battleground states, but what is your word of caution to democrats? how are you feeling about this race? >> my word of caution is that no matter how many people we see vote early, and we have seen a tremendous turnout, breaking all records, they still must turn out tomorrow. they must also be prepared not for the president trump, but, for as we know him in new york, don the con. he is going to come out early and proclaim victory and then have you disprove what he said for the next two or three days

saying, look at what they did to me. he is going to pose as the martyr of this election if he can get any sunlight at all with an early state victory somewhere. he'll come out, claim victory, and claim that no matter what the facts melee out 10, 11, 12:00 they are trying to rob me. we have to be careful not to go for the early con. the earlier trump comes out we know he knows he is losing and trying to change the fa narrative. that's the only thing he can try to win in my opinion. if there is big turnout, he can try to win the narrative even it he can't win the election. >> rev, help me out here with specifically philadelphia. we are going to go state by state. we are in pennsylvania right now. i suspect we need to pick up the pace. but pennsylvania, florida, these other swing states so important. let's talk about pennsylvania for one second. insiders i talk to on both campaigns are looking at florida, they're looking at

pennsylvania. florida actually tightened this weekend because a lot of black voters yesterday after church, whether it was online or in person, went to the polls. and so so now in florida, we will talk about that in a little bit, they are actually outperforming where hillary clinton was four years ago, and that has changed the outcome -- the outlook in florida a little bit over the weekend. but pennsylvania, it comes down to black voters in philadelphia and across the state coming out and voting. obviously, four years ago the black vote went down for the first time in 20 years. what can you tell us about the turnout operations in philadelphia? can joe biden expect to perform as well or better than hillary clinton four years ago? >> i think from what i have seen and my contacts on the ground that you will see more of a

turnout in pennsylvania particularly philadelphia. the recent shooting last week, killing of a mentally challenged black man, has energized the community. the downside was there was some looting and it took a lot to say, for many of us to say the looting is only going to help trump and it will not get justice for the victim. but i think the shooting and the reaction has energized a lot of people to say we need to come out and vote and get an administration that will deal with this. it was also very interesting that yesterday the biden/harris campaign put out a photo of biden meeting with george floyd's family and attorney ben crump and i and put that out at a time in philadelphia particularly. people needed to be reminded that he showed compassion for a family seeking justice, whereas donald trump went the opposite way. but i reiterate the looting and disorder only feeds into trump's law and order narrative, and a

lot of community leaders and activists on the ground are saying every brick you throw through a window is a vote for donald trump. >> coming up, a check on battleground florida. the way joe sees it it's tied there. what could swing the state on election day? we will talk about that next on "morning joe." before voltaren arthritis pain gel, my husband would have been on the sidelines. but not anymore! an alternative to pills voltaren is the first full prescription strength non-steroidal anti-inflammatory gel

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let's stay in pennsylvania just for one more moment before we head to florida. monmouth university now puts joe biden ahead of president trump by seven points in that state, 51-44. let's bring in director of the monmouth poll patrick murray. good morning. walk us through some of your new polling and how steady exactly it's been the last couple of weeks and months. are you seeing any late break here? >> i think pennsylvania has been the state where, as you have been talking about, there has been this softest movement of supporter, the ability to move folks. we had joe biden up by double digits by 11 points just after the first debate and when the president was diagnosed with covid. so that had a major am pact.

and i think the voters are more likely to move. the keys that we are seeing in pennsylvania right now is that joe biden is holding on to that lead, and it's a pretty decent lead, but it still is movable. we are looking at potential for him having some weakness in the senior vote. probably still going to win the senior vote, but not maybe as much as he was a few months ago. i think this is what reverend al sharpton was talking about with the law and order issue coming up for these voters. joe biden, a solid lead in philadelphia, a solid lead with black voters, particularly the philadelphia suburbs. the areas that are still going to be up for grabs as they were four years ago, northeast pennsylvania, the area from lackawanna county to lehigh county. that's why he is going to be spending a lot of time there because that area is still very much up for grabs. the other part where we see joe biden doing well is eating into donald trump's share of the vote

in the red areas, just move a little bit over to, say, lucerne county, for example, which swung 20 points towards donald trump in 2016. donald trump's probably still going to win luzerne, but we are seeing that joe biden is doing well enough with the voters that he might cut that margin, say, in half. but that means that there is still room for donald trump to make up that difference there. >> by the way, joe biden will be in the state with two appearances, one in beaver county, one in pittsburgh tonight. as you talk about the suburbs, which is what a lot of people will be looking at, bucks county and many others, how is joe biden doing as compared to hillary clinton four years ago in those counties? how significant is that? >> he is doing probably five points better on average in those suburbs than hillary clinton. that is pretty much locked in. this is that blue wave we saw a couple of years ago, two years, in the midterms. it didn't knock out fitzpatrick

in bucks county, the votes were picked up there and they stuck for joe biden. so that's pretty solid for him. that's why, you know, we are looking at a larger lead in the polls now than we were four years for hillary clinton. we are not seeing as much of a slide, but we are just still seeing that softness outside of those suburbs. so joe biden can bank on the suburbs. the question comes down again to what happens in northeast pennsylvania. >> fascinating stuff. director of the monmouth poll, patrick murray. thanks for bringing those numbers. a little perspective on your state. let's turn now to florida, mika. >> the new morning poll has biden ahead by about seven points, 52-45%. and emerson college poll has biden up by six points, 51-45. the latest new york sometimes siena college poll has biden leading by three within the margin of error, 47-44. and trump ahead by two points,

50-48%. this seems close, joe. what do you think about florida? >> well, i mean, yeah, i look at all of the polls and i think only "the new york times" siena poll and "the washington post" poll actually, i mean, you can average those two. if you look at the data right now, it looks like we are tied. >> coming up, can joe biden close the deal this time? we'll read from that new op-ed in "the washington post" next on "morning joe."

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♪ he crowned my good ♪ he told me he would ♪ the brotherhood ♪ from sea to shining sea ♪ whoa, lord, i thank you, lord ♪ ♪ shining sea what an absolutely beautiful ad. ray charles, i think it's the first time ray charles' ad, ray charles' music has been th authorized for an ad. that's the lincoln project's latest ad. kurt bardella is a senior advisor to the lincoln project and a former senior advisor to

the house oversight committee and howard fineman. kurt, tell us about the ad. >> joe, i think as we come to the final stages of the campaign we wanted to do something that was aspirational, something that was reminds the american public of what the best of us is because we really feel strongly that's what's ng on the ballot here, is joe biden said many times, this is beyond just being republican or democrat or candidate, candidate to be. decency, democracy, the things that make us unique and special, that we have long held up for decades and generations, things that our military men and women have fought for you thngs we believe in. we wanted to remind the public through all the noise we see from all of the sarcasm at times and the prognostication and the ugliness and pettiness, especially things that come from donald trump's mouth every day, that there is something to aspire to, that's worth protecting, that's worth defending. we believe it's democracy that

truly is on the ballot, particularly in the wake of the fascist activities that donald trump is egging on and supporting and amplifying. we wanted the clear message out there that there are better angels among us, there are things we are fighting for, and the best idea of america is certainly worth showing up to vote for tomorrow. >> yeah. howard, you and i have been through a few elections. some of them together. i remember 2004 in particular, which could be -- could offer a warning to overconfident biden supporters right now. i remember it was 2016, but i remember you and me being on the set looking at polls that showed, exit polls that showed that president john kerry had that in the bag. in fact, he was being congratulated as mr. president. >> yes, yes. >> in boston at the same time. so we have seen a ton of polls, howard. we have learned to become very

skeptical of polls. but these seem overwhelming. so i have dug into the data in florida. you are a pennsylvania guy, especially western pennsylvania. tell us what you are looking at in pennsylvania and what we should be looking at now on election night. >> okay. well, first of all, i am from pittsburgh. i have kept a lot of close contacts there and conveniently enough it is one of the key battlegrounds in this entire election. i have been closely monitoring my sources right and left throughout the state, especially in the west. i think right now they are cautiously confident for a couple of reasons. number one, in an odd way hillary clinton gave them a roadmap for what they, in 2016, for what they needed to do in 2020. and they have systematically gone rural in urban counties throughout western pennsylvania looking to pick off just enough people, especially men, to reduce trump's margins in the

west. it was in the west of pennsylvania that he really won the race. so they are confident in their operation there. the biden operation, the outside groups, the democratic party establishment in pennsylvania pretty much doesn't exist anymore, but the biden campaign itself has done a good job of picking out those people. in the east, the ad that kurt just showed, the lincoln project a ad, that's aimed straight at the hearts of suburban women, some who took a chance on trump in 2016 in counties like montgomery and bucks and chester and so on, the collar counties around philly. the biden campaign is pretty confident they will bring some of those people back. that notwithstanding, joe, i was another one of those people if 2016 because i am from pennsylvania, i worked as a reporter in kentucky and pittsburgh, i knew there was a chance for trump to pull it off. right now the democrats are confident and they have reason to be, but i'll believe it when

i see it because pennsylvania is a weird state. that's where the whiskey rebellion started. those are people who really, in the heart of the state, distrust washington, distrust new york. that's still a powerful emotion once you get outside of downtown philadelphia. >> howard, it's willie. so good to have you on this morning because you know the state so well. let's talk about the philly suburbs. a lot of people, bucks county, around there, took a flyer, some of them on donald trump. >> right. >> in 2016. what is your sense of where those counties are as we head into tomorrow's election day? >> well, as i say, according to the biden campaign, and i think their theory is probably right, a fair number of suburban women in those counties took a chance on trump in 2016. they were distrustful of hillary. they didn't like that campaign. but now they are upset about trump's handling of the

pandemic. they see it as cruel and heartless and irresponsible. they like the decency of joe biden. joe biden's not necessarily the most sweeping and engaging campaigner, but he is a decent guy. and also i mention one other thing, and that is the catholic vote. the catholic vote is crucial there. suburban catholic women with college educations, some higher education, in those counties they are exactly who the biden people are aiming at and they are hoping that will carry the day for them in the end. >> yeah, it's interesting. you know, you think about the evangelical vote, the fall well revelations and everything that this president has done, you would think tamp it down, kurt bardella, and yet i still has strong support. there are not a lot of republicans speaking out against the president, former or

present. what are you looking at in terms of what could be something that would be persuadable over the next 24 hours? >> well, i think that there is nothing more powerful in any of the conversations than the real-life impacts of covid-19. and as we see the rising death toll, more than 230,000 dead americans, 1,000 americans dying a day, almost 100,000 americans getting sick every day now, i mean, the worst-case scenario is that dr. fauci and experts and doctors talked about in the spring, they are happening right now and they are warning us it's going to get worse as we head into the winter season. so i think that one of the things the lincoln project and almost everybody really talks about is we can't do this much longer because literally it could cost you your life. and you juxtapose that with donald trump galavanting around having super-spreader rallies, getting his own people sick,

that makes it all to itself. >> and the u.k. is on lockdown for a month. i mean, it's real. >> it's very real. hey, kurt, thank you so much. we greatly appreciate it. howard fineman, thank you as well. i hope that, howard, you and kurt, i hope both of you will join us tomorrow night. howard, we might as well. i mean, we have been doing it for about 20 years on election night. >> we are going to be on peacock. >> you can book me in person, joe. i'm there. >> i love it. we'd love to see you tomorrow night. >> i may be in pittsburgh. the steelers are 7-0. i got to say that. >> okay. well, we'll be with you, breaking down all of those numbers. and, kurt, love to have you on as well. talking about the lincoln project and their response to the results as they flood in tomorrow night. thank you both. >> thanks, guys. >> greatly appreciate it. willie, i got to tell you, i am very proud of myself.

yesterday i had a great sports day. great athletic day. >> work out. i worked out. >> i watched premier league soccer, i had some wings. after that it was sort of a triathlon of sorts. after that i watched some nfl football. that was great. i had some potato skins, loaded, of course. >> he did. >> very proud. and then i finished up watching ted lasso, the entire season again with mika and ribs. >> i did like that. >> have you seen ted lasso yet? >> it's fantastic. >> fantastic. >> and sudeikis, i am sorry, i am going to say something here. people are going to like jump me. i saw -- so i saw it once and i told mika we had to watch it. and i thought that she was going to be pushing back. there is, i'm sorry, don't jump on me, everybody, but there is a

tom hanks quality to sudeikis. this guy -- >> yeah. >> this guy, i mean, really is an extraordinary talent and the humanity is -- he is really special. i'll let you talk about that. but i just -- i wanted first to talk about how proud i was about what i did yesterday. >> all your working out. >> i think for a good cause. and why don't you tell us, after talking about he is sedakis, what you did. you did a couple of athletic things. >> i wayou said you had wings w you watched premier league. that comes on at 9:00 on the east coast. so that's a 9 i'm platter of wings? >> for breakfast, right. >> sudeikis is so good on that show. i thought where you were going, he is also the best joe biden. sorry, but he is.

jim carrey is doing a good job, but sudeikis is the best joe biden. so yesterday christina and i, my wife christina and i, we signed up way back in april to run the new york city marathon. not big runners. the one-mile fun run had sort of been our limit in the past. we like to exercise. not runners. we thought this is the year, let's do something with purpose, raise money. we went out to raise money for the michael j. fox foundation and parkinson's. a lot of you know my dad had parkinson's for 30 years. they canceled the marathon. i kept training though and yesterday ran a half-marathon, 13.1 miles. i went from doing maybe one mile six months to a half-marathon yesterday. it was cold, it was raining hard for most of the run. that's in northern westchester county coming off a bridge over a reservoir. christina and my 11-year-old son biked along with me. they did the 13 miles on bike.

and the best surprise at the end, we told meme it's raining, don't worry about coming, my dad surprised me at the finish line. so he and my mom were there. and i got to see the guy i was running for. and we put out a link just on instagram, guys, and as of this morning we have raised $28,000 for the michael j. fox foundation. the come thing is, you feel like a political candidate. it's coming in $25 donations, 50 dooley donations, people saying my mom or dad oar someone in my family is living with parkinson's. we were so proud and so happy to play a small part in raising some money and hopefully push to a cure for parkinson's, which affects so many people and their families and their caregivers. that is just one of the great organizations in the country. and michael j. fox has been such an incredible leader in this space. a big achievement for us non-runners yesterday to finish a half-marathon. >> i am really proud of you. >> mika's mom has parkinson's as

well, willie. how can people watching right now, where do they go to contribute whether it's $25 or whatever. >> you can go to the michael j. fox foundation's website, first and foremost. i will post it again on my instagram and on twitter. we have a link we set up for our run. but you can donate directly to the michael j. fox tofoundation pays. they have raised $1 billion over 20 years for parkinson's research. because of the people they have there and because of the leader that michael is, we believe we are going to find a cure to this thing that is just, it's really, really, really hard to live with. it's hard on the patient. it's hard on the families. it's hard on everybody, mika, as you know. but when you are running in the cold rain and your feet are literally freezing as you splash through the puddles and you see your dad or see somebody else who this might help, it pushes you on. >> oh, my gosh. >> so inspirational. >> i am doing the next one if you are going to have another one. willie, thank you so much. we'll be right back. ninja foodi air fry oven.

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>> economic freefall. >> 1.5 million americans filed for unemployment. >> more businesses forced to shut down. >> children in cages. >> thousands of kids separated from parents. >> unrest and calls for racial justice. >> american at the boiling point. >> president called dead american soldiers losers and

suckers. >> the president paid just $750 in taxes. >> the president and first lady have tested positive for the coronavirus. >> spike in cases today, the biggest since the start of the pandemic. >> an epidemic that keeps getting larger and larger and larger. >> no, i don't take responsibility at all. larger. >> no, i don't take responsibility at all. >> what is on the ballot here is the character of this country. decency. honor. respect. treating people with dignity. making sure that everyone has an even clanhance. i'm going to make sure you get that. >> i'm joe biden and i approve this message. >> of that was a first look at the dnc's final ad before election day. it will run in english in pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin and washington, d.c., and in spanish on national cable as well as in target markets in florida and arizona. over the weekend, bloomberg reported the biden camp has raised concern over the lack of black and latino voters turning

out in key battleground states such as florida and pennsylvania. joining us now, president and ceo of unidos u.s., the largest national latino civil rights and advocacy organization in the country, janet morgia. also ceo of the national association of latino and elected and appointed officials arturo vargas. good to have you both with us. and janet, i'll start with you. how does the turnout look like from your perspectperspective? what can be done to get latino voters to actually get to the polls? >> well, actually, i think we're going to see that latino voters are going to be making historical inroads as it relates to their turnout. we're already seeing this year that we have more than quadrupled our participation in early and absentee balloting

compared to 2016, and, you know, that's a 224% increase. and this compares to about 165% increase in early and absentee ballots for voters overall. now i do know that we have always seen south florida and, in particular, the breakout of the latino voters in that area always be very competitive in terms of no one party being fully owning the latino community's vote. and that's been historically true. but overall, i am here in arizona. i was in tucson on saturday. here in phoenix, these next few days. i'm seeing overwhelming enthusiasm for the turnout by latino voters. and i think that's going to be consistent in all the key states like texas, florida, arizona, nevada. i think we're seeing a real uptick that will be historical.

>> arturo, are you seeing the same thing? >> absolutely. good morning. good to see my good friend janet today. we've been doing a tracking poll for the nine weeks leading up to this election. as of today, we have surveyed 3,700 latino registered voters. half of them have told us they already have voted as of today. our projections at the educational fund were that 14.6 latinos would vote. that's a 15 m% increase over 20. we think our projections are going to be shattered by tomorrow. well over 14.6 million latinos will vote, according to our poll. enthusiasm is extremely high. up to 75% of latinos are telling us they are certain to vote. and so we're excited about a strong latino turnout. >> janet, as you suss out the differences between president trump and joe biden as candidates, where do you see the support for joe biden? on what issue exactly, and on

the other side, what about for president trump? >> well, i was seeing your segment earlier. kurt pointed it out, and i think it's something we're seeing reinforced day in and day out. covid-19 is top of mind for all of our latino voters. and they're looking for someone who will address this. and they've seen so far, really, a failure in leadership. that's something that we've seen in our polling that tracks what we're hearing as well. our community has been crushed by the impact of covid, disproportionately so. we're two to three times more likely to get the disease and then we're also more likely at a higher rate to die from it. so for our community, someone being able to get a handle on this pandemic and address it and ultimately be able to address health care costs, that is top of mind. and we're seeing that biden is trending quite favorably among

latino voters in both of those areas. obviously, the economy top of mind as well. strengthening it and turning it around. but our community wants a leader who will unify us, who will respect our contributions in particular as essential workers during this time where we've stepped in to keep the country going. and those are all issues that are very top of mind for our community. >> arturo, this election, i've enjoyed watching this election unfold because it's been very educational for politicians and pundits who i've long complained the democratic party looked at hispanic latino voters as a monolith. and they would just say behind closed doors, well, you know, the hispanic population is growing at such a rate we're going to win this state and that state in four years never thinking that like in a state like florida, cuban american voters are far different than

puerto rican voters or far different than dominican voters. far different than a lot of different hispanic latino voters. and it's insulting to suggest that you can just look at hispanics, latinos as one overarching group. talk about -- talk about all the undercurrents that you've seen this year and just sort of this rich -- this rich fabric of hispanics, of latinos and how it's going to impact the election. >> well, we've always said that the latino electorate is not a monolith. that it's diverse. it's diverse not just by national origin, it's also diverse by geography. you're mexican american voter in texas is not the same as your mexican american voter necessarily in california. so the smart campaigns are the one that really find out who the electorate is that is latino, that they are appealing to. listening to the voters and not

assuming what are the issues important to latinos. again, according to our tracking poll as janet said, covid-19 is the number one issue latinos have in mind as they go to the polls. followed by access to health care. then wages and the economy. then immigration reform. and then institutional racism. consistently. those are the five top issues latinos are caring about. with more than one-third of latinos saying they know someone who has died from covid-19, the campaigns going to speak to latinos about how they'd address covid-19 are probably going to have the most success. >> all right. >> janet marguia and arturo vargas, thank you both for being on the show this morning. >> we really appreciate it. just to close today. trump campaign senior adviser jason miller claimed yesterday that democrats would try to steal electoral votes after election night if president

trump appears to be ahead. >> they believe that president trump will be ahead on election night, probably getting 280 electoral, somewhere in that range and then they'll try to steal it back after the election. we believe that we'll be over 290 electoral votes on election night. so no matter what they try to, do what kind of high jinks or lawsuits or whatever nonsense they try to pull off, we'll have enough electoral votes to get president trump re-elected. >> willie, let me tell you something right now. the red sox, there were a lot of games this past year. a lot of people like to kick the red sox around. we were ahead in the sixth inning but the yankees or the rays, some of these other teams would like cheat and they go ahead and they would wait until like the nine innings were completed and they had gotten their 27 outs. it was an outrage, man. it was -- come oserion, serious.

how stupid does he think trump voters are. why does he keep insulting trump voters and calling them morons when he says things like this. >> this is going to be the strategy. flood the streets with sewage like what you just heard. flood the streets with a declaration of victory at 10:00 tomorrow night when you have not won. that's what we're witnessing right now. let's be clear. we've said it ten times this morning. one more time. when they have to continue counting the votes in pennsylvania and michigan and wisconsin into wednesday, into thursday, maybe into friday, that's not because there's fraud. that's not because something is wrong. that's because that's how they count the mail-in votes in those states. so when president trump and his team flood the streets with sewage for three days, remember, keep your eyes up. the process is working. and there's not fraud. the election is not rigged. this is how we do the election in those states. >> high turnout. >> and the supreme court has

already ruled in pennsylvania, they can count ballots that even come in three days later. i want to apologize to donald trump supporters for people thinking they're that stupid on the trump campaign. we apologize for even playing that clip. you deserve better. >> i'm not sure what he's doing. >> as does america. >> that does it for us this morning. >> by the way, willie, i was very inspired by your running. how inspired were you by going my triathlon, going straight to the ribs at 9:00. >> i think it was wings. you closed with the ribs. >> 9:00 a.m., extra hot wings. >> it's 9:00 a.m. so that does it for us this morning. stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage right now. hi there. i'm stephanie ruhle. it is monday, november 2nd. and this is it. the final day of campaigning. as of right now, listen to this number. more than 93 million