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it is 1:00 a.m. on the east coast. we're following the breaking news as votes continue to come in, in the 2020 presidential election. not just the presidential election, state, local,

congressional. votes coming in tonight, we believe, in arizona, where donald trump has been eating into the gap with joe biden as the last group of votes, people is that mailed or hand-delivered their mail-in votes. the state looks to be tight when all is said and done. a bunch of votes in, in georgia, as well. and votes coming in that are mail and absentee votes tilted towards joe biden, narrowing the gap to about 30,000 votes. based on the patterns we're seeing, it's perfectly possible that joe biden actually takes the lead in georgia as the rest of the votes come in. that's plausible based on what we know. and pennsylvania, votes are still being counted. we knew it would take a while, they're implementing widespread mail-in voting for the first time. they're being tabulated on

livestream amid a lawsuit from the trump campaign to stop the counting of those legitimate ballots. and the lead has been whittling away and away and away, getting smaller and smaller. and there are still lots of outstanding votes out there. there are still quite a bit. philadelphia county, about 70% in. the remaining votes seem to overwhelmingly favor biden. if the current pattern holds, biden is likely to finish ahead in that state. again, if. if that were to happen, pennsylvania would mean the end of the trump presidency. we're watching nevada as well as other states. let's start at the big board, the latest with ali velshi, he will give us the latest on arizona. what have you got?

>> good morning. 253 electoral votes for biden, 214 for trump. 86% of the votes in nevada are in at the moment. about 551,000 remaining to be counted. and the lead for biden has narrowed to 79,000. now, the question is where these 551,000 are coming from, and if you look at where the remaining vote is, these bubbles give you the largest indication. the absolute largest indication is maricopa county, the massive suburb area around phoenix. when you look at these numbers, the county is 83% in. tilting toward biden fairly convincingly. but 356,000 votes, the lead for biden in the county is 85,000 right now. there is 356,000 to come in.

the question is, do they start to come in more heavily in favor of donald trump, does he start to narrow things out? and mohave county, heavily skewing towards donald trump. that's the issue in arizona. a lot of stuff is expected to come in. there is stuff expected in every county. in tucson, still 46,000 remaining, and biden has a 99,000-vote lead there. that's what we're looking for in arizona. we expect another deposit, dump, if you will, of data probably sometime this hour, maybe within the next half an hour or so. and the next thing we're looking for, the stuff you talked about in georgia. we're expecting more information out of georgia, donald trump has

the lead, but we're looking for almost a quarter million votes in there. and the remaining vote is in these nine counties around atlanta where biden is supposed to do well, including columbus, macon, agugusta, and savannah. chris? >> that's fascinating. and maricopa county, there's sort of a bizarre somewhat unnerving and ironic situation, pro-trump protesters have gathered outside of the building where they're counting votes in maricopa county. for donald trump to win, they need those votes to be counted. and again, if, you know, donald trump carries the state, he carries the state. that's why we count votes. >> yeah. >> their presence has seemed to slow things down and make it a little bit more logistically difficult for that county to report things out. we're going to keep our eyes on

that. and ali, we're not expecting -- do you know, is my question, there's no more big reporting of votes tonight? >> we think it's arizona and georgia overnight. we're expecting nevada to come in, we should get a dump from nevada about noon our time. probably about 11 hours away. pennsylvania will start coming in with more numbers in the morning. they have to schedule about three to four deposits of votes a day. we'll start to get information today. we're getting nothing from north carolina. we will not hear from north carolina, they said until november 11th or 12th. and alaska gets a week after the vote. today we will be able to p populate some information,

though. and mike, i'm curious what they're citying thinking in del. how do they see this unfolding? >> well, this morning, the biden campaign started with wisconsin, they said there was very little voting left, and they thought that state should be called. michigan, the outstanding vote was heavily democratic counties. and in pennsylvania, while there was a bigger deficit to overcome there, they were confident that ultimately they would end up with about a 100,000-vote margin in his favor once the vote comes in. and over the course of the day, wisconsin, called. michigan, called. and pennsylvania, that gap narrowing quickly. the other thing that was interesting, they said georgia was a genuine toss-up. and there's more confidence about that outcome today.

we're hearing that joe biden may very well be able to come to what was supposed to be an election night and speak to the country as president-elect. all it takes is one more state, like pennsylvania or nevada and arizona, you saw the former vice president speaking today. a bit of statesmanship, speaking about the need to unite the country, not seeing each other as enemieenemies. hailing the numbers in a pandemic, and pointing to his popular vote numbers. the fact that he has the most votes for any presidential ticket in american history. beginning to lay the groundwork as he looks to working potentially with a republican senate for the fact that he does have a mandate. so the biden campaign, and we saw of course the launching of their transition website, trying

to move forward because they believe he has won the election. >> what are the lawyers thinking, then? i know he has a number of them, like bob bauer. what is their position right now? >> they think that what we're seeing from the president and his legal team is a waste of time. despite the president saying around this time last night, if you drive by the supreme court right now, you will not see donald trump or his lawyers. that any attempt to go to court will be met with what they called the biggest potential embarrassment for a sitting president before the high court in american history. they're ready to deploy in all those places that the president's team has gone to court within the hour to challenge them. we've seen mark elias, another lawyer in the democratic party, ready to go toe-to-toe with

them. i think the fact that rudy giuliani was the frontman for their effort today in pennsylvania, when he went to philadelphia, backed up their ideas that these are not serious challenges at the end of the day. >> all right, mike, in delaware, thank you so much for that. and i want to bring in stewart stevens, co-founder of the lincoln project, and author of "it was all a lie," and someone who has worked on a whole bunch of national campaigns. first, i'm curious, your read on this campaign, and where things stand from someone who tried to carve out a path to 270 successfully and unsuccessfully for republican candidates. >> my take is, it's over. it's just a matter of going through the process. i think he's going to win arizona, i think he's going to win nevada, i think he's going to win pennsylvania. and listen, i'm telling you, man. we were looking at the numbers

in georgia, i think biden will win georgia. which is just astounding, but you do the numbers, and i think he's going to win by about 30,000 votes. >> we should say, we're showing georgia right now. that's down to a 23,000-vote margin. there's still a lot of vote out. and the vote is coming in, in crazy margins for biden. because this has been polarized. and there's a polarization about voting by mail, because covid is dangerous and real, and not. what is your reaction to what this means about this country politically, even before we know who won, right? so we've got a 2016 race in which the largest split between electoral college and popular vote in american history. and 77,000 votes for the blue wall to make him president.

a 2018 result, the largest flip in decades for the house, but republicans pick up senate seats. this year, a hard-fought battle in which the democratic nominee will get 51% of the vote when it's all said and done, probably, and probably an electoral college victory. but losses in the house, and less than expected in the senate. what does that say about the political structure of the country? >> i thought it was going to be a much bigger night for the democrats. but i think we have to step back and look at what is happening here. at the end of the day, joe biden will get more votes for president than anybody else, we're going to have the first african-american female vice president. he's going to have flipped arizona, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, and georgia. that's a heck of an achievement. so i would say to my democratic

friends, we shouldn't mope about it, that it wasn't as big as we thought it would be. but beating an incumbent president is extraordinarily difficult. the last incumbent president who lost, who wasn't in the federal funding system, was herbert hoover. now it's going to be donald trump. it's quite an achievement for biden and the democratic party. >> we had david plouffe last hour, who was working for barack obama in the 2012 race, and you were working for mitt romney. when all the votes were counted, that was not considered a suspenseful election night. it was a close race, but with a clear, definitive winner. i don't think people look back at that and say, as democrats,

we barely eked that one out. and biden's margin over donald trump nationally will probably be bigger than that race. >> this is just a function of the vote by mail. that's all that is happening. it's the first endemic national election. we shouldn't be surprised that it's playing out differently. but the dynamic of the vote coming in, and it's a matter of how you count it, it hasn't changed. you know, if something else is happening in georgia, it will probably press purdue under 50%, so it could generate two runoffs for the senate. so the senate is actually in play. >> right now, it looks like it will be a situation in which it will be -- there will be, it will be two seats that if democrats were to win both runoffs, they would get to 50-50

with vice president kamala harris has the tiebreaker. can you imagine the amount of money that is going to be spent and raised on those two senate runoffs in the state of georgia. >> well, look, in the lincoln project, i spent part of the day making ads for both of those races. so we're going to be in there as heavy as we can, as well as most of the known political world. it's going to be fascinating, because something happens to candidates when they lose and to parties when they lose. it's going to be very deflating to republicans to lose the white house. and i think it's going to change the whole temperature of this race. and all of a sudden, things that didn't seem possible will seem possible. it just happens. it's not to say both of these guys will win. but it will be a lot more interesting in a post-trump defeat world than in a world in which donald trump had been

re-elected. >> i could see someone persuading me in either direction. and everything seems balanced on a knife's edge. stewart, thank you so much for taking time to talk to us. >> thank you. we were just talking about the numbers from arizona. we think they'll be in this hour. i'm such a tease, dangling the maricopa county ballots again. how is it that polls were so off again? we'll talk about that, next. we'. still your best friend. and now your co-pilot. still a father. but now a friend. still an electric car. just more electrifying. still a night out. but everything fits in. still hard work. just a little easier. still a legend.

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so much of the experience of watching returns last night, so much of the experience today was anchored by the polling going into it. and it was a bad, bad, bad night for polling.

a polling miss that happened on every level, in states, in different regions. something systemically looked wrong last night with polling. and it seems important that we figure out what that is. i want to bring in shawn and matt, i want to get to you, matt. but shawn, let's start here. there's nothing that can be said other than the polling was wrong in a million different places, all in the same direction, to the peril of decisions like resources and money and all that kind of stuff. >> there's no way to disagree

with that statement. here in ohio, the polls were off by eight points. they were off in wisconsin and michigan. and mike dewine didn't lead in a single poll in 2018, and yet he's the governor. it's a huge problem. florida is another state. i don't think ron desantis led in a single poll, but he's the governor. something is going on that pollsters have to figure out or we're going to be flying blind. >> matt, you did polling for the campaign. i got the sense that the internal polling wasn't that different from the public polling. do you think there's something fundamentally broken about the industry right now? >> internally, we always had the race very close. in all these states. we were saying we had it as a tight race, and we were expecting it to tighten. >> that's true.

>> the second thing is, a lot of the commentary came out as the votes were still coming in. in some of these places, you're going to start seeing a 0% turn into 2.5%. but i've been polling a long time. i teach polling classes at ucla. polling methodology has changed dramatically, from the old samples to voter files to text messaging people. and how are the pollsters interviewing people, are they matching them to the voter file? we need to really dig into the polls and find out how did they get a good sample of voters? and does it match who will show up on election day? >> and if you can't average them, and the models, you have a garbage in, garbage out problem

with any models that are doing broad averaging. it starts to feel a little like the priests go into the cave, and they come out and tell you what the prophecy is, rather than an actual scientifically justified undertaking. >> there were so many polls today, and they all end up somehow going into the average. there should be an emphasis on the polls that were high-quality. >> but the high-quality ones all missed. the ones that didn't miss were the rankest partisan polls that took the high-quality polls and tacked six points for the republicans on it. i'm not saying that's how they did it. but where they ended up at, they were six points more republican. that looks like it was the right read on the electorate. >> let me just say quickly, we don't know that that was a high-quality poll, just because

nate silver said it was one, doesn't mean it is one. you need to make sure you're meeting people where they are. maybe some percentage of polls should be sms texts or dms. we need to get people in the way they're used to responding. just because someone says it's a high-quality poll, that may actually not be high-quality. we need to reevaluate what a high-quality poll is. >> and one argument is that you've got very low reply rates. when you have low reply rates, you have to go in and do weighting by different factors. and now you have a sort of craft call, it's sort of an art, sort of a science. and then i've heard that there's a correlation between the kinds of people who respond to polls and how they're going to vote.

so you have selection bias. so the kinds of people who will respond to polls are less conservative than the people who don't, and that produces that outcome. how plausible to you is that? >> yeah, to use an analogy, in a '58 ford, there's an engine, wires, and it goes. i have a ford explorer, and you need an engineering degree to do anything with it. and so the same thing is with polling, now with caller i.d., people don't think institutions work for them. they don't trust outsiders. i think it's a very plausible story, they hear, hi, and it's just like, click. and there's not too much you can do about that. >> let's talk about polling

latinos, which is very difficult, it's a heterogeneous group. did you know the miami-dade number would look like it did, and did you pick up on declines on joe biden? >> well, the miami-dade numbers were not just with latinos. but within the latino community, in miami, among cubans, going back with trump. and he had started to consolidate those in large part because of marco rubio. that was something that people had been seeing. but you do need to break it apart. if you look at people like puerto ricans, joe biden did

very well. 68% to 70%. so the polls that matched what we were seeing in florida, and there was not some sort of big collapse among the latino vote in florida, it was matching about what we were seeing, it's in the places that people thought that biden was going to make increases in the white vote, it didn't seem to materialize the way people thought it did. >> last point on this. one of the things i think is pernicious, public opinion, you know, this is one way we kind of get to know, you know, the polity, our fellow americans. and there's important information there. but second of all, i sort of wonder, like, what -- what does it mean if we're flying blind? if we don't actually know what

people think? if the methologd methodologies missing, what does that mean? >> well, if we're off by, like, ten points on what public opinion is on a matter, something that is 55 and 45 is actually the opposite, it's a huge problem for policymakers and for making a country that is supposed to be responsive to what the public wants work. >> and one of the things that happened last night, there's an anchoring effect to the polls. they then come up with analysis of the race that is why the polls were not met, as opposed to it was just a measurement

error. so the idea of, what did sarah gideon do wrong in maine? maybe she was just getting whooped the whole time and the pollsters were wrong. there's not a story to tell about what the campaign did wrong. it's a story about the polling miss. >> i think in the case of public polling, that's right. so many people are reliant, the analysts that all of the networks use are reliant on taking those as cues. inside, we knew that florida was razor-tight. that it was as tight as we saw. and we were adjusting and making cases on that. why do you think you saw the president and vice president in michigan the day before the election? because we knew that that was going to be extremely tight. i can't speak for all the public polls. but if you know they're tight and you're doing it right, you can run a good campaign. >> shawn and matt, thank you. i think it's an important

conversation for a lot of things as we go forward. thank you for doing that. ahead, there's a mob, group of trump supporters protesting outside the building in maricopa counting, demanding the counting be stopped. we'll go to a reporter in the middle of it all, next. go to a middle of it all, next farmer's , new car replacement, you can get a new one. (customer) that is something else. (burke) get a whole lot of something with farmers policy perks. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪ one of the worst things about a cois how it can make you feel. but, when used at the first sign, abreva can get you back to being you in just 2 and a half days. be kinder to yourself and tougher on your cold sores.

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post a new batch of data soon. but some protesters there, some carrying long guns. the sheriff's department is providing security. and the people inside the building are trying to count the votes. any interruption is bad for donald trump, because he needs the votes counted in order to make up the margin. i want to bring in someone who is there to give us some perspective. he's in the protest right now, and joins me by phone. simon, what is going on down there? >> hi, chris. it's just a crazy scene all around. there's a good 150, 200 people

gathered on the steps, and lots of them are holding trump flags, shouting chants. you know, singling out the maricopa county recorder by name. he's a democrat who runs elections in phoenix and the surrounding suburbs. and it's just a very tense scene out there. you have well over a dozen guys walking around with ar-15s, clad in camouflage. it reminds me of covering protests in south america, countries like brazil or venezuela. >> say more on that. >> you know, i covered paramilitaries and armed extremists in these countries for years. so returning to my own country here and to see this on the streets of a major american city is still a jolting experience. you know, arizona is an open

carry state. they're legally allowed to do this. but it still can be quite intimidating, i think. especially for journalists covering the scene, bypassers who are walking by, and especially for the public employees inside, doing their duty and counting the vote. it's a very tense scene right now. >> they're inside the building, that county recorder's office is where they're physically inside counting the votes. and the votes they're processing are votes that they're expecting to have a report on, they're vital to donald trump's chances right now, really vital if he's going to make up the gap he has in that state. do people -- do they want them to count the votes, or stop

counting them? i guess people are just upset. >> they're extremely upset. and they claim there's no legitimate way that their candidate, president trump, could have lost the election, and they're voicing a lot of conspiracy theories about ballots that may have been filled out improperly that weren't counted. county officials have explained that's not the case. they're counting all of the ballots in question. they're just taking the time to do the job correctly and thoroughly. >> the county sheriff's department, you see the law enforcement officers there, that was for years a notorious sheriff's department led by joe

arpaio, who was convicted and then pardoned by donald trump. do you have a sense of what will happen? >> it's very fluid right now. some of the people leading the protest are saying they're going to stick around, camp out, and stay overnight. they're saying they'll do this as long as it takes. but the protest has thinned out somewhat. it's already past 11:00 in phoenix so people are going home. but others are arriving, and they're coming with guns. which is just pretty notable. yeah. >> simon romero, who is a great reporter, i've been lucky to read for a while, thank you for joining us. i appreciate. >> thank you, chris, my pleasure. >> i want to bring in christina

greer, and maria teresa kumar, maybe i'll start with you, there, maria teresa. one of the big stories last night does seem to center on the latino vote, in places where it appears to have swung towards donald trump. cuban americans in miami-date, mexican americans in the rio grande valley, some crazy swings. but in other places where it provided a huge margin for joe biden like in arizona. how are you making sense of what we've seen so far? >> thanks so much for the conversation, chris. the big thing is, we have to recognize the latino vote is not a monolith. and that's something we've recognized for a long time. and we've recognized there are real fractures in the latino vote, not just by where your

family may come from, but what age you are. young latino voters are growing up at a time where they're seeing show me your paper laws in places like arizona and texas, in georgia, in north carolina. if you see a pattern, and it's the young latino vote that has disp disproportionately supported joe biden by a lot. in arizona, 25% of young latino cast their mail-in ballot. that's some of the people they're trying to process right now. but i want to pause a little bit, because i think the fact that you had the reporter talking about the protests being like what he's seen in latin america, that's very much on par with donald trump, and reminiscent for so many latinos that are not necessarily from cuba, when they hear his

shenanigans, how he reacts to protests, down the list. and this tactic by the republican party in contested elections is not new. it's reminiscent of roger stone's brooks brothers, trying to intimidate the voting going inside. and they're stopping arizona, where it's good for donald trump. but they did that again in detroit. so we should be alerted that this is a pattern, not necessarily to protest the vote, but more to intimidate the individuals in that election office counting the ballots. so we thank the officials doing that, but we should be on alert. this is not something we should be seeing on american soil. >> chrissie, i want to talk to you about black voters in the election. let's start there, it's one of the stories of the night. you know, i was talking to

lieutenant governor gilchrist of michigan about this. there was a dropoff in vote in 2016, particularly in michigan and wisconsin, that was part of the story. the turnout among african-americans in crucial states from georgia, michigan, wisconsin, is through the roof. and i think there's a connection to the fact that it was black voters who singlehandedly revived joe biden's aspirations in south carolina and flips things on their head. do you see continuity here? >> we have to remember, black voters are not a monolith, either. in presidential elections, we're roughly about 90% with the democratic party. but as far as this campaign, let's back up a little. we talked about when joe biden

met with representative clyburn. sometimes we need to choose a second or third choice, because we're trying to maximize the strategy. in many cases, black voters are the canary in the mine. so many black women tried to warn the country about donald trump in 2016. there is this throughline. it's not surprising in a place like georgia, and alternative party candidates are collecting 60,000 votes in some states. but stacey abrams has been laying the groundwork for over a decade there, we saw what

happened in 2016. so the groundwork that fair fight action has been doing, and the new georgia project, it's a long line of organizing, a multiracial, multiethnic, multiclass coalition. we saw this in michigan, we see a progressive lieutenant governor of wisconsin. social justice activists had been organizing in places like this for a long time. and arizona, we can't forget about latino voters and organizers who have been doing that work in arizona, and even nevada as well. so chickens are coming home to roost. the margins are razor thin, but we can look at some of the groundwork that has been laid for several years, and make sense of what we're seeing now in 2020. >> it was a strange and kind of confounding night for an obvious

takeaway, i think, in many ways. as we're watching the map come to belie together, you can imagine the blue wall returning and also georgia and arizona, the blue wall returning in maybe georgia and not arizona. there's a bunch of things that i think are -- you know, i think there was a desire on the part of liberals particularly, but the sort of anti-trump forces, and what i would call the pro-democracy forces for some sort of broad rebuke of president trump. but nowhat does it say that republicans have lost 7 of 8 popular votes in presidential elections? >> no, i see trump skeptics and trump critics in the republican

party who have been asking about the direction of the party. but among his supporters, they're confounded. as far as arizona goes, i was in maricopa county just last week, attending one of president trump's final rallies. i asked his supporters this question, what do you make of president trump claiming that the election can be stolen from him? almost all of them to a person believed if the president loses, there would be come kind of foul play. the conspiracy theories that the president has stated about ballots being dumped in a river or cast illegitimately. there's no evidence for any of this. but the president has planted the seeds of doubt about the legitimacy of the election, and that may be a little bit of what

we're seeing in those images and the raw emotion. arizona has been a republican stronghold, it's only supported a democrat in the white house once in the last century. maricopa county is ground zero for suburban metropolitan areas tilting away from donald trump. so they're confounded about the idea that it's turning away from being a red area. and if president trump loses arizona, he'll have to run the able elsewhere, and then pick up nevada, which is looking very difficult. so eyes are on arizona at this moment. >> arizona is a must-win. thank you all for staying up with us tonight and lending us

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click or call for a quote today all right, we're back. a quick recap of where we are with arizona, still counting the last batch of mail-in votes that were mailed or handed in the last few days. we're expecting an update from maricopa county at some point, but the scene outside may be delaying that. georgia, the difference is razor thin, there's good reason to believe the outstanding vote would put things extremely close when all is said and done. and pennsylvania, a ton of outstanding vote in pennsylvania. similar trajectory, with mail-in votes swinging heavily towards

joe biden. and nevada will be reporting tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. local time. and a bunch of the vote expected to go heavily to joe biden. he's winning the popular vote by 3.6 million votes, give or take. that's where things stand. thank you for staying with us. msnbc has continuing coverage, right after this. uing coverage, right after this false alarm. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ i have moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. now, there's skyrizi. 3 out of 4 people achieved 90% clearer skin at 4 months after just 2 doses. skyrizi may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. before treatment your doctor should check you for infections and tuberculosis. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms such as fevers, sweats,

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good morning, everyone. welcome to night two of msnbc's special coverage of the 2020 election. >> joe biden has