with less pain immediately following injection. if you can't afford your medicine, abbvie may be able to help. this is scene outside the election center. chaos going on outside and inside. i want to show you something that gives me hope. these are poll workers. one is a democrat, one is a republican, and they've become friends throughout this process. this is something that happens throughout the country. so this is the calm happening in this room. meanwhile if you stop and listen you can hear the chants from outside. outside. good evening from new york. i am chris hayes, and we are now entering our fourth day of

election day as we inch closer and closer and i mean much closer to being able to decide the presidential election. we also and i have to say this right off the top, we just saw one of the worst days or the worst day in the coronavirus outbreak that has spread throughout this country. according to nbc news count over 120,000 people tested positive for covid-19 on thursday. that is nearly 16,000 more cases than the previous record that we saw on wednesday. hospitalizations which provide the clearest view of what is going on continue to spike alarmingly. over 53,000 people currently hospitalized. we are currently careening towards the all-time high of 60,000. president trump said nothing about this today, nothing. instead the president who is cheerily understanding the electoral map is decisively turning against him decided to use the bully pulpit for a full frontal attack on american elections. there was a distinct air of a

man we could all see slipping away and for good reason. right now former vice president joe biden is way ahead in the popular vote, ahead in the electoral college and two key states are looking like they are poised to possibly flip in his favor. here's the news of the hour on that front. we're expecting a ballot report in clayton county in georgia that could propel joe biden to a narrow lead in that long time gop strong hold, in the state of georgia. you can see how thin that margin is right now. i think just about 1,200 votes if i'm not mistaken. meanwhile president trump lead is currently falling away. if that pace continues joe biden would take the lead in the very near future, again if the pace tones then next few hours. if biden winds pennsylvania that is whole ball game. that is 273 electoral votes right there. so let's start at the big board with the legend steve kornacki who was going to leave and go

get some sleep and said no. i love chris hayes too much and i love election returns too much. welcome back, steve. what's it looking back in pennsylvania? >> this is why i came back because i think there's going to be some votes overnight, and in the last few minutes more votes. three counties reporting out more of the obsenty vote. number one, we got more vote from lehigh county, more from delaware county, bucks county. allentown, philadelphia suburbs more votes to come. the effect of those votes you just showed it, trump now leading statewide by 22,000. before these updates it was 26,000. and the situation here again, our chris jansing reporting they are going to be working overnight in a lot of these counties in pennsylvania to get this vote finished, to get this vote reported out. we saw just about i don't know if it was about 45 minutes, maybe an hour or so ago, philadelphia they can do at

their mks. capacity 13,000 ballots in an hour. they haven't always been doing that but that's their capacity and they reported out about 13,000 votes. and the effect was biden cut 10,000 plus votes out of trump's lead. we're in a situation here if we continue to get 2,000 votes here, 1,000 vote there, 3,000 votes there, that's what we've been getting from these various counties in the state, this can tick down. 22, 19, 17, 15 and so on. then if we get another big batch in the next few hours from philadelphia, it's possible here if they are all continuing to report or most of them are continuing to report the vote out, as you mentioned it's possible, it's conceivable that some time in these overnight hours joe biden would pass donald trump in this vote in pennsylvania. and again, this is one way streak we've been on here. every single report in pennsylvania, these absentee votes from the bluest county to the reddest county has featured joe biden gaining votes in the

statewide count. it's just beyond clear by this point that the people who chose to vote by mail, the people who chose to vote absentee in pennsylvania are overwhelmingly democrats and overwhelming biden voters. and the number of combined absentee mail ballots that are yet to be counted out and reported out in pennsylvania is more than enough for joe biden to catch trump and to move considerably ahead of him. so again we just continue to look at these come in. i think at this point an expectation that this margin is going to continue to tick down for president trump. so that's why i came back. overnight we had drama. we're in the state that if biden wins it, he becomes the president-elect. and we have the possibility that he will overtake the president and the possibility if he overtakes trump, he's not looking back. >> let's drill down for a second. first of all, the context here do we know, and this is always hard and it's been a hard thing,

and you guys have done an amazing job with the estimate bars. how many of these votes are outstanding total? what's our universe looking at right now? >> let me give you as an exact a number as i can if you give me literally 8 seconds here. >> when i've been talking to democratic campaign observers and nondemocratic campaign observers, these are people across the political spectrum look at the numbers of pennsylvania coming in, obviously our decision we're counting every vote here and not getting out ahead of anything. but the confidence that emanates from the biden camp derives from pennsylvania more than it derives from basically anything else going on in the map right now. so how many outstanding votes are we looking? >> we're look at about 175,000 outstanding votes in pennsylvania. we're looking at now the number in philadelphia is about 59,000. the number in the pittsburgh

area is about 35,000. those are the two biggies we have, but we have a bunch of other counties around the state that also had significant numbers. so you look at democratic 22,000 with a lot of mail votes in pittsburgh and a lot of mail votes in philadelphia, just on a normal election night, precovid you'd be saying that democratic candidate is feeling good right now. but the twist here tonight is that the red counties where we gets reports from are not trump counties when it comes to the mail-in vote. the mail-in vote -- biden is winning the mail-in vote across the state of pennsylvania at a rate of 76%. so we are getting mail-in ballot reports from deep red counties and i'm look at them and biden has 63% of the vote, and as republican as it is, all the republicans went out and voted on election day. and a lot of the democrats said, no, i'm going to vote by mail. so we're just counting that piece of it. it's only the mail ballots we're left to count.

>> in the case of philadelphia, you've got to sort of -- philadelphia is a very democratic city with very democratic margins, and you're counting the mail-in vote in philadelphia. so you've got these two factors driving just to be clear we're seeing in some these ballot reports out in philadelphia, 85% for biden, 90% for biden. these are really big chunks of vote coming in with very big margins. >> he is averaging on the mail votes in philadelphia 91% of the vote. and again, 59,000 of those mail ballots remain in philadelphia. and every few hours we've been getting big batches from philadelphia. so when i say if philadelphia is as they've been saying counting overnight, they did about an hour ago, but i don't think it's crazy to think in the next few hours we could get another one of these big reports from them. and at this point if we got one more report just like we got from philadelphia about an hour ago, that trump lead is

immediately cut enhalf statewide. and then like i said every few minutes it seems we're getting -- okay, bucks county just released more of their absentee count. delaware county just released some more of their absentee count, lehigh county and on and on and on. and the numbers aren't as huge there, but biden is winning 65, 70%, 80% of the absentee ballots in those counties so he's still gaining votes. we get these incremental reports. he picks up here and that adds up too. you've got two things working in tandem where that vote count while we wait for that philadelphia count can continue to dwindle. we have not seen a single moment in the counting of these mail ballots where donald trump's lead has ticked up because there's not a single county in pennsylvania where he's winning the absentee vote.

every report we get brings this number lower. and if this number gets down to i would say south of 12,000, then we may be one report from philadelphia away from joe biden taking the lead. and as i say there's no reason to think if joe biden gets the lead in pennsylvania, there's no reason to think he's looking back. >> that was so, so helpful. i always feel duty bound when we're talking about this and you know this. we're talking about this in this bizarre temporal way where things are coming in. all these votes are the votes of the election. in fact, these are the first ones cast. this batch of votes are the batch of votes people were mailing probably some of the most inenthusiastic voters. tease are not votes that came in late in any way. some of them might have been sitting there for weeks. >> some of these counties reporting out didn't even open a

single mail -- they might have gotten it three weeks early. they didn't open in some of these counties until 8:00, 9:00 a.m. the day after the election. again, it's like two things are happening here. all the mail is being reported pretty much after election day, but also the whole issue of do i vote by mail or not from the voters standpoint became political. as the republicans got the message, no, we vote election day and democrats got the message we use the mail. so we saw this in polling in september and october. we asked voters in pennsylvania do you plan to vote by mail. the ones who said yes were 79-17 supporting biden. that's what these results look like. >> steve, dwriem going to get you get a drink of water and put more numbers in your brain and then we're going to come back and talk to you about georgia. but first i want to go to msnbc correspondent rehema ellis, live in philadelphia and doing great reporting for us there. you're outside where they're doing that voting count, and it

sounded like they're brewing coffee and going to keep going. is that right? >> they have been brewing coffee since tuesday, chris. they have never left up here with the exception of a pause that was on thursday morning as a result of some of the aggressive efforts mounted by the trump campaign to intervene in the counting. they wanted to slow this down. trump campaign did get a, if you will, a win from a lower court that said there has to be more poll watchers closer watching those folks counting the ballots. as a result city election officials here have said we want to take a look at what that court order is, and they pause the voting here. they pause the counting here for a little bit on thursday morning. then it resumed. and it has not stopped. they have been going around the clock here. and in fact, you should hear this from a philadelphia election commission says the poll workers here are working like crazy to bring in this count.

one of the things that steve said -- so many things he said, there are about 59,000 remaining mail ballots to count out of philadelphia. and they're counting them anywhere from 10,000 to 13,000 per hour. he's better at the math than i am, put the point he's making is if you're counting 13,000 ballots an hour and you've got 59,000 to count, that means something should be happening here before too long. in fact, the secretary of state said in the evening on thursday -- i'm getting my days mixed up -- on thursday a few hours ago -- a few hours ago she said that it was likely that they would be able to talk about a winner coming utof pennsylvania before too long. she even said she thought it was going to be before the night was over. she pushed back just a little bit because she doesn't want to be making a declaration who's winning before all the votes are counted, but it is something she said. the other thing you remember

about all of this is about these mail-in ballots. because the trump campaign has been so insistent of, again, trying to interfere with this counting these mail-in ballots have an extension on this from the voting day up until friday which we're going into now. and they call it segregating any ballots that were officially postmarked as of the end of voting on tuesday up until the last counting of the ballots came in from the post office friday. they're going to put them aside just in the event that there might be a challenge to any of these ballots. so as we're coming close we might find the winner but we also might find some of this will be challenged. and i don't think anybody will be too surprised if that does happen from the trump campaign. >> i want to be clear here and i think this is right everything being counted that's all the stuff from election day.

there is no legal question, no legal challenge, no legal nothing. and that there is another pool that they have segregated of these votes that have come after election day, which according to pennsylvania state law as interpreted by the pennsylvania supreme court and not overruled by the united states supreme court are valid votes to be counted but have been segregated out of an abundance of caution should there be renewed challenges. but that category of ballots is not entering the equation as of now, correct? >> i'm not going to say that. i'd like to get another opinion of that. of all these ballots, everything coming in these are part of the ballots being counted but they're being put aside. they're counting them but counting them in a certain section and oh, my gosh, are all those ballots? they want to know exactly where they are. when they say the remaining mail ballots they have, that's the

59,000 they're talking about of all the ballots that have been turned into the election commission. >> thank you. that was very clarifying. thank you so much for sticking around. all right, let's go back to the big board with steve kornacki. i want to talk about georgia. and before you do that, you don't have to pull up the electoral maps, but just to refresh everyone's math here, it was always the case it was to reflip the three states in the greater midwest. if you flip those three back you get over 270. georgia and arizona are not necessary to that specific path wisconsin and michigan called and pennsylvania. but nonetheless georgia is very close right now. what's happening there? >> yeah, extremely close. 1,805 votes. that was donald trump's advantage over joe biden. when you put that into percentages you go to the tenth

decimal place and they're even on that. the biggest thing we're waiting on right here is clayton county which is just overwhelmingly democratic. this is in the atlanta metro area. you can see joe biden's winning 85% of it vote here right now. they are still sitting on several thousand absentee ballots yet to be reported out. there's been talk that will happen some time tonight. i'm not sure it actually will. you hear these claims it's coming many times on election night and it doesn't materialize sometimes, but we're keeping an eye out for that but certainly the kpegt azation is if and when clayton county joe biden is going to lead by such a wide margin he will then take the lead in a statewide count. there's a similar dynamic but nearly as extreme in georgia as i was just describing in pennsylvania where biden has an advantage on the mail ballots that are coming in.

where in a republican county there's one republican county here still reporting out some of its mail ballots. the last batch trump was leading, he was leading it very narrowly. even there biden is doing better than a democrat normally would in a republican county because it's mail-in ballots. again, the biggest piece of real estate here is clayton county. there's a scattering in some other counties, too, that are also out. but the big picture of where this looks like it's heading in georgia let's say biden does vault ahead of trump by a couple thousand votes here, maybe it lands somewhere around there, two things. number one, if that margin between the two candidates is half a point or less, it can't be a losing candidate but the losing candidate in that situation can request a recount. so that can be on the table here. this is bit like wisconsin if you remember. okay, we've called biden the apparent winner but trump talking recount. they're awaiting on that in

wisconsin. they could be waiting on a recount in georgia. also there's this issue there's a deadline of tomorrow in georgia for overseas military ballots. now, they have already counted thousands of overseas and melitamel military ballots. they were returned, they are part of this count. what the deadline is for tomorrow, though, overseas military they could be received after election day but we're at kind of a theoretical level here, do they open the mail in georgia tomorrow and there's 8,800 return military ballots? there's likely to be very few. it just means folks decided not to vote even though they had the ballot, but nonetheless that is something if you're looking for a call in georgia, that is something that the possibility there are outstanding ballots can play into that as well. so there are a couple of pieces to this right now. it looks likely to land,

whichever side of this it lands on within that 0.5%. and as you say for democrats right now i think they are potentially at least eyeing georgia more as icing on the cake because they think the cake is pennsylvania. they think imminently joe biden is going to take the lead there. then they'd love to have georgia on top of that. that's probably where their minds are right now. for trump it's he needs this, he needs everything pretty much. >> and we should note i mean where georgia ends up is going to be almost certainly mathematically at at this point really quite close. we don't know but certainly almost within that very close range, might be a recount. in terms of the characterization where pennsylvania might end up, we don't know, it's not currently on a trajectory towards this real narrow -- you're looking at -- when you said before one decimal place, tied one decimal place. right now pennsylvania looks like with the outstanding votes and the way they're going, it is

not headed towards the same direction. again, we can't say but georgia is going to be close either way within a few thousand votes probably. >> right, no. at the current rate in pennsylvania i'm just seeing if there's any updated votes there, again, biden winning 76, baesically three quarters at this rate of all these absentee votes coming in he's winning, so that's put him on. if you look back to 2016 the margin for trump was about 46, 47,000 votes. that was trump's statewide margin. could biden pass trump and get somewhere into that neighborhood? that's not out of the question. >> steve kornacki, you stick around and i'm going to come back to you. >> priscilla, what's the counting plan there in atlanta? >> yeah, chris, well, a number of folks have already gone home. we spoke with the folks out in

gwinnett county, another one of those counties. steve kornacki mentioned clayton county. and those folks have gone home for the day. they finished this process of adjudicating ballots, so earlier this week when they were scanning ballots they were having an issue with getting some of those granted by the scanner, and they had to pull those out and have a committee come in and actually review those and determine the voters intent, and we now know that process is done. they had initially said it could have taken up until sunday to get that ballot count in, but they were able to finish it today and around 13 hours, they are not going to be reporting those numbers tonight. but we are expecting them to -- >> i think we may have lost the audio for priscilla thompson there in atlanta.

as you heard from priscilla, we've got a lot of counting that happened in atlanta, report tomorrow morning. we're not getting reports from atlanta, we're notopying through the night in the same way we are anticipating for pennsylvania. there may actually be more votes from clayton county if i'm not mistaken, but i'm not sure about that. we will come back to her. joining me now david plouffe, former campaign manager, white house senior advisor to president barack obama. david, i was speaking to you exactly in this position 24 hours ago with a much wider lead in pennsylvania, but the vectors were set on their way and moving in this direction and 24 hours later they have proceeded to pace. how are you feeling? >> well, you know, could be a matter of hours could be in the morning but joe biden's going to take the lead in pennsylvania. you and steve are talking about trump's margin in '16. if these trends hold biden is

going to win pennsylvania by a lot more vote than trump won it by. it's not going to be that close. maybe 70, 80,000 votes. he'll be in the lead and i assume the networks will declare him president-elect. let's talk about georgia. it's going to be fascinating what trump world does, because all of a sudden that may be another state like arizona or nevada where they're okay with the belief maybe these absentee ballots that come in from overseas could allow them to retake the lead. so i think where we are is the remaining states, you know, i would consider joe biden to be the favorite in all of them. i would imagine tomorrow morning when the clark county numbers come out, they would be of sufficient size in terms of adding to biden's lead. that state might get called. arizona i think is going to continue to narrow. i feel better about biden's prospects there, maybe he wins the state by 20, 30,000 votes

we'll see. but across the board whether it's georgia, pennsylvania, arizona or nevada, pennsylvania cleary we're just waiting for this to become formal because these trends -- and it's very important. obviously he's doing very well in philadelphia. but erie county, north hampton county, bucks county, delaware county, montgomery county. all these other counties he's adding a lot of vote for. the other reason these numbers are so pronounced in pennsylvania is you don't have in-person early vote, which i think republicans did avail themselves of another state to be had there. basically pretty much all the people voting by mail were democrats and republicans voted on election day. >> one of the things that becomes so clear i think when you break down the vote counting this way, first of all just how much margins matter. i think it's very hard for all of us to think of the margins,

you know, the difference if you're in a room with people and, you know, 52 are wearing one shirt and 48 are wearing another shirt. you wouldn't know at the time. and if four of those people switched, you probably wouldn't know, but that's an enormous difference, when we're looking at pennsylvania and talking about 47,000 i think you said vote margin in 2016 for donald trump over hillary clinton, and we're now talking about, you know, maybe a margin like that or bigger when all is said and done, we're talking about a little more than a point, percentage point of all the voters in the state in, you know, 6.5 million votes cast, probably upward around 7 million, it's a tiny margin and yet the margins matter so much. they will determine who's the president of the united states. >> that's right, chris. remember back during the democratic primary we talked a lot about delegates, you and i and how you only really aquer delegates if you're winning states and congressional districts by some margin.

and that's the same thing here. listen, trump was able to do this both in '16 and '20. i mean he built huge margins in smaller counties but they all add up, right? what you're seeing in pennsylvania is yes philadelphia is going to drive a lot of it biden margin but he's able to flip erie county which clinton lost in '16 to trump. the suburban margins are going to be bigger. so he's netting real votes. okay, if you're winning big suburban counties by 15, 20 points you're going to rack up a lot of raw vote. >> thank you for staying up with us. thank you at home for not getting any work done today and not going anywhere and sitting there all day watching us because we appreciate it, and we're going to keep going. we're going to keep our eyes what's happening in pennsylvania and get back to steve kornacki

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all right, out west we have two states that are still undecided. we have arizona where joe biden currently stands at roughly 47,000 votes. and we're expected to get more vote tallies friday morning. vaughn hilliard is in scotssdale, arizona. you've been great on the details of the various political inclinations and slices of the various voter groups that mailed

in or walked in on their vote at various times which is essentially what the analysis comes down to at this point. what's the latest at least on what's out there and when were you going to get reports? >> yeah, good evening, chris. okay, one of those buckets i think the most exciting bucket that we have had exist yet in this election here in arizona is the bucket that's going to be released tomorrow morning here in maricopa county. it's going to be at 75,000 voters. and what makes this bucket different is that these votes are going to be including mail ballots that were not mailed, but those that were hand-delivered to the polling locations here in maricopa county. there's about 175,000 of them in all. we're only going to a get a fraction of them, but those ballots are going to be able an indicator what we should expect next from that 150,000. and why is this important? because so far donald trump has maintained a pace of these

uncounted ballots dating back to last night winning 59% of the share of those votes. if he is able to maintain that pace he will catch up or eclipse to joe biden. so the big question tomorrow morning, 9:00 a.m. local, 11:00 a.m. eastern is what does that batch of about 75,000 ballots look like? is it 59%, or is it going to be 55%? democrats, the biden campaign hope that number is going to be different for a number of reasons. and one of those numbers for an example, being that democrats were so wholly urging folks in this last week to not mail in their ballots because it concerns the postal service and instead go in person. they're hoping they saw a higher share of independent voters go that route, and that 59% will actually be a lower number and able to stave off donald trump from catching up to joe biden here in the state of arizona. >> very, very well explained. that's what we were looking for

in first 75,000 votes. vaughn hilliard thank you for that. turn now to nevada where less than 12,000 votes separate the candidates. there's a lot of votes out in clark county. a politics reporter for the nevada independent. when can we expect more vote tows from nevada? what can you tell us where they might come from? >> we're looking right now about 190,000 outstanding ballots across nevada. 90% of those are from clark county, and a lot of those are mail ballots. that's what we're expecting to get tomorrow morning at 9:00 a.m. clark county election officials have told us today that they are counting 51,000 ballots. those are going to be mail ballots. and if it's anything like what we saw today, we saw a small number of mail ballots come back from clark. only about 14,000. but those votes broke 2-1 for joe biden.

so we're expecting to see some big movement in those numbers that come in tomorrow morning. >> just for folks tracking this with the various categories overlay them. as we were talking about pennsylvania you've got areas that are more or less democratic, more or less republican and then voting method. in both cases in pennsylvania you're seeing that voting method has polarized democrats doing mail-in voting. and when you combine that areas that are themselves democratic you get a huge area in philadelphia. clark county which is fairly democratic county in terms of its performance overall and mail-in votes in clark county. but the samples we have thus far show them as quite democratic votes, and a big pool of those votes are coming tomorrow. >> that's correct. you have to think about three distinct areas. where las vegas is, heavy democratic voter registration advantage there, that like you were mentioning, chris, coupled

with the preference among democrats for mail-in voting means we've seen that big land slide there. up north where reno is, a little more split though the votes that came in today leaned a bit toward biden and obviously very conservative, those votes were splitting 2-1 for trump today. >> mag that was great. the big story tonight the numbers coming out of pennsylvania which has shown the president's lead shrinking and shrinking. we have kornacki standing by as soon as we get any updates. we're looking for them. stick around. updates we're looking for them stick around before voltaren arthritis pain gel, my husband would have been on the sidelines. but not anymore! an alternative to pills voltaren is the first full prescription strength non-steroidal anti-inflammatory gel to target pain directly at the source for powerful arthritis pain relief.

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they have businesses to grow customers to care for lives to get home to they use stamps.com print discounted postage for any letter any package any time right from your computer get the services of the post office plus ups at up to 62% off get our special tv offer a 4-week trial plus postage and a digital scale go to stamps.com/save and never go to the post office again the president, his advisers and his campaign all together are clearly flailing as it becomes clear their paths to victory are vanished. today the former acting director of national intelligence, rick

grenell literally ran away from msnbc reporter jacob soboroff. >> can you talk about the evidence you're claiming thousands of illegitimate votes here. you guys just made the claim. in fact, you also said there's no election observers. there's democratic and republican election observers inside, mr. grenell. where's the evidence of the fraud? you haven't presented any evidence of fraud. >> yeah, that's rick grenell. the trump campaign has no evidence, just oral arguments and lies. this afternoon it was i think a pivotal moment in the trump presidency what i think is probably the end of the trump presidency, probably. the president himself finally emerged today in the white house east room to deliver more of the same nonsense. and here's how that looked on msnbc. >> if you count the legal votes i easily win.

if you count the illegal votes, they can try to steal the election from us. if you count the votes that came in late we're looking to them very strongly, but a lot of votes came in late. i've already decisively won many critical states including massive victories in florida, iowa, indiana, ohio. >> okay, here we are again in the unusual position of not only interrupting the president of the united states but correcting the president of the united states. >> olivia, so what's is the mood like in the white house right now? joining me now washington correspondent from new york magazine. do they know, do they understand the math in the white house? >> no, i wouldn't say that exactly. on election night and last night the president's mood described to me as being pretty grim.

and i spoke to someone this morning was ready foofight. but we're doing that and someone tweeted stop the count. this person who spoke they had to explain to him stop the count would force him to lose the election because he's down right now. and stopping the count right here would mean he automatically loses. and they had a back and forth what he actually meant and whether or not people were taking him literally when he said he wanted to stop the count. this person had to explain they didn't in fact -- the president is saying things that are not true, he doesn't understand. he's facing consequences for that and he's looking for people to blame. and he's really been doing this for weeks and weeks. but he's just out there doing it

i guess a little more openly right now. but it's kind of remarkable how much things really are the same as they've been for weeks and weeks as it dawned on them that he'd probably lose to joe biden. >> yeah, the stop the count thing was interesting. if we stopped all counting right now the president would lose because he's losing arizona and losing nevada. and those comup bied with wisconsin, michigan, and that omaha, nebraska, congressional seat elector would make joe biden president. they have to keep counting. he wants them to count the states and stop counting the ones he's ahead. one thing a lot of people have been texting me and talking about can they do it in the supreme court, and you can't litigate your way out of a 50,000 vote margin. you can't litigate your way out of an 80,000 vote margin. you might be able to in a 1,200

vote margin in a state. that's the reality. i start hearing certain people talk about a republican should do a different state of electors, which to me indicates they understand their host. >> talking a couple weeks ago the campaign started to talk about getting legal teams in place in case they needed to file any lawsuits. we saw "the new york times" reported yesterday that jared kushner said they were looking for their james baker, and what they ended up with was cory lewandowski and rudy giuliani not exactly sending their best. so you'd think they would have had a legal team in place to handle this stuff. not only are they perhaps unaware there's not a path forward legally, they also don't really team to have anyone waiting in the wings to help them file or carry through any of these lawsuits. >> final question here is what

comes next? i guess you don't know the answer to that. none of us do. i think they know or suspect he's going to lose, and i think it's interesting that he ran behind state -- senate candidates in states. he ran behind house candidates in-house districts. there is a good case to be made that donald trump was an anchor on the ticket, that he was -- that if you look at migts the senate candidate john james did better than donald trump. and that was replicated a lot of places. and i've got to imagine other republicans look at that and think, you don't actually need this guy as much as we thought we did. >> right, i think you kind of see that tension playing out where you have lindsey graham at first inexplicably coming out and saying he's going to donate $500,000 to the pence fund today. the trump campaign has been fund-raising nonstop on this.

and you have other republicans who have been silent. i guess it's a question how much is the president going to be obsessed with him the way they are now going forward and keeping the people reliable on republican voters does that require doing donald trump's bidding going forward even if he's out of power or can we kind of pretend the trump thing never happened and move on and exact like it's basically 2014 again and move on from there and have nikkei haley or someone like that take the lead of the party. and i think the answer to that question is probably not going to be -- it's not really going to be clear to us for probably a number of months. >> thank you so much for that. joining me now is maria robena, also former senior advisor to senator harry reed, and david wassermann.

i want to talk about one of the most fascinating things we see emerging is this difference between the president's performance and other republicans performance. i mean the republican party that was not donald trump had a pretty good night. house candidates had a very good night. senate candidates had a pretty decent night given the field, and donald trump is going to lose the national popular vote by probably 5 million votes. how do you understand those different results? >> well, first of all, he's going to lose the popular vote by more than 5 million. we're looking at potentially a popular vote margin when all is said between 4 and 5 points which is better for biden than it looked initially on election night. look, i disagree with your earlier observation that trump might have been an anchor for down ballot republicans. in fact, if there was a blind spot that we analysts had look at the down ballot races it might have been that donald trump is the best of both worlds for congressional republicans

because not only does he drive out low propensity voters but he also gives independent voters an opportunity when he's on the ticket to vent their anger at trump at the top of the ballot and then cross over and vote for a republican they might not mind lower level, and that i think saved a lot of suburban zriks that otherwise, you know, might have been in jeopardy on the trajectory we saw from 2018. >> this is such a great point just to zoom in on that, and thank you for making that clarification. so your sort of lifelong republican suburban voter who just can't handle donald trump, you hate him and you go out in 2018, trump's on the ticket and you vote for the democrat to send a signal. you come back in 2020, you can just vote against donald trump, and say, yeah, i'm a little worried about the democrats. i want to sort of balance that and split my ticket. you're saying there's some pool of voters that did that this time around and it's pretty significant for house races. >> when we calculate the cross

over districts, the zriks that voted one way for president and another for down ballot, i suspect we're going to see a lot of districts that voted narrowly for biden and also a republican member of congress. look, there's no question that part of democrats big problem in the house, the reason why their majority is likely to get cut in half probably is that catastrophic loss of support among hispanic voters. democrats have to take a look in the mirror in places like south texas and in miami because they absolutely got crushed when it came to the margin swing. and let's face it the democratic party today is really pretty out of touch with these voters. >> what do you think about that as someone who's worked in the space and worked in nevada politics, obviously, when you look at what has happened in this election particularly with latino voters? >> i think specifically to that point it might be an oversi

oversimplification. i do think when you look at places like nevada, like arizona, like georgia, like p.a., you're going to see a community that looks unique and going to be really important to the margin. i was on the ground in nevada for senator reed's re-elect. it was a referendum on the anti-immigrant sentiment. over the last ten years movements there have been building. what you're seeing happening very -- what you're seeing happening now, right, you're seeing movements who have built power because joe arpaio was targeting them and they're doing the number one job to get donald trump fired. i want to point out only focusing on south florida or south texas oversimplifies a part of the electorate that has a lot of nuance that based on where they are regionally in the country, for example, in arizona and nevada latinos have much more of an immigrant identity, a working class identity, and so you're going to see them deliver

for joe biden in those states. i want to milwaukee sure we're unpacking that a little because it can create some unfair takes around the coalition. >> let me ask what your 10,000 foot view of the coalition is. this election result, i think peoples perception of the election result especially among democrats is heavily influenced by the way it's rolled out. and i think if all the votes have been counted wraev vote in the country had been counted on election night, it would have just been a different emotional experience for what is i think we can safely say the majority of americans that voted against donald trump. what is your sort of view of what we're seeing come into focus about what it means for it democratic party, for the broader coalition that makes it up? >> so i think you're right that folks were experiencing last night with lot of nerves, i'm always thinking about how are we organizing, how are we making sure we're staying focused and calm and confident in what we're

building towards, but i do agree with you folks have been indulgent in some of those nerves, and we've got to look at what we're going to learn as the numbers come in and counting finishes. as you look at the new american election eve poll, you look at what the estimated turnout was in nevada, 250,000 latino estimated, 300,000 in arizona, those things get lost when we're only moving in really one-dimensional part of how we talk about latinos in this country. >> one thing i think that has also gotten lost is it's hard to beat incumbent presidents. just a historical fact there's a ton of political science literature on this, and it doesn't happen a ton, and you know the fact he's going to lose this like you said the popular vote margin here, that's irrelevant to electoral college but in terms of who came out and voted for who and what the national mandate is, he's

probably going to lose which all is said and done i think the popular vote by a larger margin than mitt romney did in 2012, which people view that i think election as fairly decisive. so it says something i think about his broader political popularity throughout the country. >> yeah, look, you can stack this up and it's going to be pretty bad for trump by the end of it. but it's also pretty scary for democrats in the sense that the margins in the decisive states were really not that large compared to the eventual popular vote is likely to be. this gap between the electoral college and popular vote it might be an even greater gap than the one in 2016 even if biden manages to win michigan, pennsylvania and wisconsin by a much larger vote margin combined than trump did in 2016. >> it's such a great point if he ends up winning nationally by 5

million or 6 million votes, somewhere in that neighborhood we're still talking about 150,000 voters changing their minds over three states, 200,000 voters out of the millions upon tens of millions cast. thank you both so much. we're coming up on 1:00 a.m. east coast. right now as i speak to you, there are people in the commonwealth of pennsylvania, loyal dedicated hardworking civil servants counting ballots. and all eyes are on them and their state where joe biden's closing that gap very fast. we'll go back to steve kornacki for an update at the top of the hour when our coverage continues right after this. >>it's shiori. what? >>shi - or - i adam, emily and then... s-uh um... >>it's shiori. sh-ori. thank you, that's great. shiori

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