he's never been that. he's never been rejected, which is why he's dealing with this rejection badly now. he's never been the kind of regular guy that comes. if you look at the people at his rallies, they are culturally closer to joe biden than donald trump and how do you attack biden without making them feel like you're attacking them. it was something they could never figure out and i believe that's the reason why. >> jon meacham, the rev al sharpton, claire, four of the wisest people i know. thank you for spending time with us and thank you for spending the hour with us. i'm sorry i was late for school. it won't happen again. ari melber picks up coverage now. hi. >> hi, nicole, i've been enjoying your coverage and we'll keep going. thank you so much. >> that's great. >> i want to send a good evening to everyone around the nation.

i'm ari melber as america watches six crucial states to see when we'll get an answer to the question, who will be the next president of the united states? this is all about the facts, not opinions or timings. we'll track the facts tonight and as long as it takes. joe biden is in the lead. he's on the cusp of winning the presidency because of these facts. he leads most of the six states that are still uncalled. he's taken the biggest lead here of the week in pennsylvania. today, now that one win if he got it alone would put him over 270 electoral college votes he needs. we're tracking 40,000 more votes left to count from philadelphia, which is a democratic stronghold. then let's take you through it. there is nevada where officials say new numbers could be out this hour. if they are, we'll have them for you. we have a new nbc decision desk characterization of nevada. it is simply quote too close to call with biden leading. then there is more bad news for

donald trump in georgia. a long time red state where biden pulled ahead by a razor thin 4,000 votes. that has officials prepping for a recount under state law. take it all together here and you have joe biden up in these remaining and bluer states like pennsylvania and up in other battle grounds while donald trump only leads in north carolina. that state alone, by the way, would not get him to victory. and there have been many twists and turns today. and there are signs, some signs that joe biden may have been preparing for a speech tonight there in wilmington but the biden team is saying at this hour that they're not quote taking anything for granted. it is unclear from our reporting if we would hear from him tonight or not. so many elections are, of course, called on election night. it may seem sometimes like america is just waiting around now but let me be clear with you tonight before i turn to our experts. this is not a wait. this is work. elections officials are working

all around the nation right now and into tonight as are observers represented by both parties in these different states to keep counting, inspect, to recount, yes, when provided by law and to pskand t facts and transparency. there is no deadline for the process which is, of course, as it should be there are later legal deadlines under state law and the constitution but those are a ways out. and the outstanding states are well ahead of those kind of deadlines. so let me keep it very simple. we will keep working, we will keep counting and we will keep reporting for as long as this takes. this is a time for facts and reason and no time to lose our cool. now we turn immediately to ali velshi who is, of course, host of "velshi" on msnbc but more importantly, filling the big shoes of steve kornacki under the shift work we have on a

very, very long running election night that's turned into election week. we saw a preview of numbers. walk us through the rest. >> this is the path to 270. we got 253 to joe biden at the moment. 214 electoral college votes to donald trump. let me tell you why we're also obsessed with pennsylvania because if i put this into joe biden's column, he gets to 273. if pennsylvania goes to joe biden, he wins the whole thing. let take it out of his column for now and put it in donald trump's column. let's say we go red. it doesn't get donald trump to 270. he's got to get pennsylvania, he's got to get north carolina, he's got to get georgia. he's got to get alaska, that's going to be awhile before we figure that out and north carolina will be a little while. he's still at 268. at that point, donald trump still needs to get either nevada, that gets him to 274 or let give him arz for a second and take nevada away. that's 271. that's number one.

looking at the paths to victory, joe biden has nine combinations that will get him to 270, donald trump has three combinations to get him to 270. all of which, there is number one, two, and three. they all have to have pennsylvania, that's why pennsylvania is as important as it is. there is one path that results in a tie. a tie goes to congress but a tie would probably go to donald trump. that's not what a lot of people who are looking to see joe biden win are looking for. pennsylvania too close to call with 96% of the vote in. we are continuely expecting more votes to come in including some from right here in philadelphia county. 95% of the votes are in in philadelphia county. joe biden is up by about 81% to 18%. he's got a lead of 428,000 in philadelphia. we may be getting 30 or 40,000 more votes in this area if they break the same way these are breaking, then that will be interesting. we're expecting votes, i've been

sitting on this for awhile where pittsburgh is, we got 95% in there. 128,000 vote lead for joe biden. that's not in. the other two issues we've got across pennsylvania are that we have mail in ballots, probably about 100,000 of them to count right now. they are breaking heavily toward joe biden. so that should increase his lead. it's only 14% in the state right now with 96% in. however, there is a very active discussion going on on twitter, there are probably a similar number of provisional ballots. 85,000 to 100,000 i'm hearing. what happens in pennsylvania, ari, if you asked for a mail in ballot then you decided you weren't going to mail in the ballot because you were worried what would happen and go to vote in person but you didn't bring not only the ballot, but the envelope it came in and sec cooe -- security envelope, they would

give you a provisional ballot. those are counted last. some people say those are breaking for donald trump in a heavier pattern than breaking for joe biden. we don't know this to be true, by the way. it's anecdotal evidence and i'm hearing all sorts of things. that's the issue in pennsylvania, does joe biden's lead go from 14,000 up as we get mail ballots in or down as we get the provisional ballots in and we just do not know the answer to that. if we get pennsylvania the ball game is over if joe biden gets it. if trump gets it, he's still alive. >> you just reinforced, even with other states outstanding, it's vital to the few paths trump has left because it's that rich -- >> has to p happen. >> ali, i've worked with you for a long time. you're good at this. why not wear the khakis if steve is out? >> let me tell you. there is a lot of why not. steve kornacki is a national

institution. my only role is to keep him sleeping for a few hours so when this really gets hot and matters, he's awake to be back with us. i won't even pretend to be a little like steve kornacki. >> we think you're both doing great for as long as it takes. ali velshi, we'll be checking in with you all night. we turn to jacob live in that crucial state of las vegas, nevada and joined by someone who knows exactly how to plan for the paths. cornell belcher was the chief pollster for the obama campaign. i want your view on the map. we begin on the ground in nevada. jacob? >> reporter: ari, i have a little trouble hearing you. let me layout where we are. we have a large pool of votes here that are still yet to be counted and we expect another group of those ballots to come at 4:00 local time, 7:00 eastern

time. not that long from now. this morning we got 31,000, later today -- we don't know how many. there are about 60,000 outstanding vote by mail ballots that were dropped off or mailed in. the margin was 8,000, now it's around 20 something,0 thousand, just over 20,000. beyond the mail in counts, there is provisional ballots. when i was on brian williams, we talked about the folks in line, why does it look like there is a lane of people several days beyond election day and the answer is, two answers. people are here to cure their ballots. people that may have signed a ballot and contacted by the local elections officials were asked to come in and verify it was them. the other group is the provisional ballots. that's 60,000 additional 60,000 people who voted but didn't necessarily, you know, meet all

the rules and regulations on election day and the parties received a list of those provisional ballots and have been contacted. so when i was on with brian, we heard from republicans and democrats in line and the party apparatus called them and said if you don't know for sure if your vote was counted, show up in person and double check and make sure. what i want everybody to know, many of the people in line right now and are going in are walking out saying hey, the good news is my vote was counted. so while i did say that it may appear concerning, once people come out the door, a lot of people are having their issues resolved and by no means, are the amount of people in line greater than this margin we're looking at right now for joe biden. >> yeah, really important context as we really see the process play out. jacob thank you so much. we have obama pollster cornell with us and michelle goldberg. cornell, as promised, i turn to

you first. you see that many combinations on the map. i've reemphasized something we said before tuesday night, which is that tuesday versus friday is not a constitutional or electoral difference. it may have other feelings and everybody is entitled to feelings. when you look whether we get more calls tonight into the weekend or next week, what do you see in the collision that is assembled there and is it too early to say whether or not you see an obama biden coalition now resuscita resuscitate? >> that's a very good question. one quick clarification, i was part of a brilliant obama team. i was not chief pollster, i was part of a very brilliant obama team -- >> how about this? how about this? you're going to try to share the credit, which we always appreciate, how about we'll just call you ceo of victorious obama polling? >> i was just the best looking

pollster. [ laughter ] >> now i'm going to get attacked by all my friends. the collision is interesting. you will remember that in 2008, obama garnered 43% of the white vote on his way to victory. it looks like joe biden will garner around 42% of the white vote. in somew ways, his collision is less white than ocbama's 2008 collision and you see the states coming online like arizona and states like georgia that are sort of key and central to what's happening right now, those are also states that are very, very diverse states. so in certain ways, biden what looks like a wichbing collision, i suspect he will garner 52% of the vote and more dependent on

diversity than barack obama in 2008. >> really interesting. michell michelle? >> look, i think one of the most things that will come out of this election, what you see is when some of the sun belt states go blue, it happens very rapidly. right? it was not that long ago that virginia was a republican state, then a purple state, now a pretty safe blue state. you know, you can say something similar about colorado. arizona a few years ago would have been unthinkable for arizona to have two democratic senators, birthplace of berry go goldwa goldwater is skpmg and something similar with gg. i don't think a lot of other people saw it and now you have

georgia even though joe biden's lead is very narrow, georgia looks like it will be in the blue column and has a senate race that has two senate races or two senate run upping coming up that could determine the fate of joe biden's presidency. >> right, that goes to what the co-equal branch is staffed like. michelle, there was a lot of concern what donald trump would do if he was losing with the government. and what i've been reporting legally is the brick wall he's headed to and not something he gets a cookie for or rewarded for but there is no great strategy to use the white house counsel or doj or anything like that and you have people like mitch mcconnell using rhetoric that might play both ways saying things that would seem to lead to donald trump's ultimate potential loss, count the votes and move on. it was mitch mcconnell today.

>> a statement on tweet, twitter this morning that i think you've all gotten and beyond that i don't have anything to say on that. i think this is ultimately going to be decided exactly what i said in my tweet. >> and the tweet michelle just said every vote should be counted. >> look, i think that so far even though the votes in the swing states are very narrow as the count goes on, trump is not really within cheating distance and that was what people were worried about. people were worried about for example if the vote in pennsylvania came down to votes that came in during this three-day deadline after election day, that republicans have challenged, you know, and there is an attempt and if those votes prove to be decisive, you would see more scope for action and trump and the justice department and potentially from the supreme court. right now, there hasn't been any group of ballots, any group of

ballots they can credibly challenge or threaten to seize because again, even though biden's lead now is narrow, it's kind of normal. it not coming from provisional ballots. it not coming from questionable ballots. it coming from, you know, just sort of the ordinary counting of ballots. >> yeah, all really good points. michelle goldberg, thank you, cornell we'll come back to you later in the program. this is special coverage, we have a breakdown of trump's legal strategy with the ultimate supreme court l supreme court litigation and we'll show you what is emerging today, something we didn't know days ago. what is historic about joe biden's current edge in the total votes in america and new sourcing in trump world discussing an angry president. michael and heather join us live. i'm excited to hear their perspective after this break. h perspective after this break

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welcome back. ari melber with our special coverage now. we've been counting the votes in the six states but i want to turn to something we haven't gotten to. do you know joe biden has the highest secured total vote in american history? it's 74 million votes and growing to donald trump's 69.9 million. that would be of course, as well the second highest total vote ever. you can also think about it this way, take a look at the popular vote percentages that presidential election winners have gotten in every cycle since 1992. this is pretty important because i'll walk you through it. clinton beat an incumbent president bush with 33%, in 2000, george w. bush came in with just under 48%, that was less than gore got but he won the electoral college. then you get up to '08 we were

just discussing with cornell, you have obama's super high number there. 53% of the vote and in '16, donald trump was back down to just 46% alsole less than hilla clinton but won the electoral college. i want to show you this context and take a look at this reveal. joe biden right now with 50.5% of the popular vote. why does that matter? well, for one thing, it's one of the highest we've seen a candidate get in the last 30 years against an income bekucum suggestions a strong mandate from here. i want to bring in michael presidential historian and heather mcgee from "color of change." michael, there is many things we're still waiting on and we've all emphasized that in reporting but the total vote matters a great deal and whether you count it in analysis in a reflection

of huge support for biden or antipahty for donald trump, what do you see? >> there is a big mandate for the man who looks as if he's going to be the new president with that kind of a vote that looming so much larger than anything we've seen before in american history, and the other thing, ari, look at the turnout on tuesday. everything we are hearing suggests this may be the most or at least in modern times close to the most people voting turning out of eligible voters that we've ever seen. the last time that happened was 1960, kennedy versus next sin -- kennedy. a lot of people turn out on tuesday was much larger.

that means enthusiasm for joe biden, it also is a really big sign of health in our democracy. >> democracy and heather, so much of this talking about who is beloved or who has a sturdy base even if it's a smaller base. i'm curious what you think about it. cornell eluded to the diverse according to what we can see and again, we're not calling those six states. in the total vote, heather, when you see a level 06 support that's higher than trump right now, higher than trump last time, higher than the bushes, higher than the bush years, i mean, higher than bill clinton in a three way. what does that tell you about that emerging national majority? >> well, i think you should also peel back and look at what this overwhelming majority, this m e

multi racial that draws from people of all ages that reflects the diversity that is this country's grease et test asset. what are the policies joe biden ran on? those are also ones that get six and seven out of ten voter's support. taxing the wealthy, a big green jobs program to address climate change, putting care, child care, paid family leave at the center of our economy and yes, racial justice issues about police accountability and ending qualified immunity for cops that abuse the badge. so it's not just blue versus red. it about the vision in society and the democrats clearly have an edge to articulate a bold vision, certainly in contrast to the republican vision, which so far has been, you know, cutting taxes for the wealthy and, you know, bundling a pandemic, pretending like it doesn't exist and leading to hundreds of thousands of people losing their lives.

>> yeah, and this also goes to the writing on the wall, michael, because we've seen republicans here not rushing in to help what some see as this is i'm quoting reporting what they see as a potentially losing gamb gambit. washington post, trump turns angry as quote possible defeat looms. some in the president's or bit including his family sensed more republicans were not echoing comments and publicly fighting for his reelection. of course, what we're hearing from some republicans and other conservatives, michael, they fought for his reelection, they fought hard, they think they're losing and they're not necessarily in interesting in passing certain lines for something that's on their way to a loss. they're also watching a range of data and sources as we do which include for them fox news which is also at times reported on what's coming in their view. take a look. >> it's agonizing for the

president. he sees a lead of 700,000 dwindle every single hour. >> i think this was so close -- >> but you're talking about the popular vote. >> and joe biden once again will win the popular vote, we know that for sure. >> if you make a call for joe2, obvious in pennsylvania. that would give him 284. >> and he would become the president elect of the united states? >> that is correct. >> michael? >> well, i think what donald trump is going to have very quickly in the next couple days is the experience that will be like picking up a telephone and there is no dial tone, he's used to everyone jumping. he's used to everyone being afraid of him. he's used to being able to intimidate members of congress. he will be absolutely astounded at how unintimidated people are of him. the party is over for him. it's going to be a very big emotional shock for him. he's probably having that

already. it is for almost every president who defeated for reelection doesn't happen that often, but for donald trump who by everything that we hear has been living for four years nearly in a world of delusion where people are giving him folders of material that suggests he's more popular than he really is, he's been living in a dream world and the dream for him has just turned into a nightmare. >> starkly put. i want to thank michael and heather mcgee. we're moving on a little quicker than planned because we have news from the big board. ali velshi, we said we'd go back to you if we had anything new and we do. go ahead, sir. >> it's not a lot new but at this moment when we were looking for little bits of information, particularly nevada and arizona where joe biden currently has the lead. 93% of the votes in in nevada. the difference is a lead of about 22,500. we're looking at the county reno

exists -- sorry, clark county where las vegas is. clark county we got numbers in. we're still only at 88% of the total. we got about 6,000 votes in, in fact, 8700 votes in. most of them went to joe biden. his lead in clark county increased to 77,000. i want to go to neighboring arizona right now. tucson, pima county, we saw about 9,000 votes come in. we got about 95% of the count in right now. this was actually a bit of a split. 3300 votes went to joe biden, 3600 votes going to donald trump here. it narrowed the lead a little bit. joe biden still ahead by a lot in pima county. 97,866 votes. bottom line, it hasn't changed the map much. we still do not have decisive numbers out of nevada, arizona,

georgia, north carolina, pennsylvania and alaska. we're going to be waiting for awhile. no major changes right now but updates. i'll tell you we're waiting for more updates out of pennsylvania where we have 96% of the vote in. we're probably looking for about 200,000 more votes here, about half roughly are mail in. about half are provisional. these are very rough numbers i'm making up. these are really important because joe biden leads pennsylvania by about 15,000 votes right now. so how those remaining 200,000 votes break is going to be really important. the mail in ballots tend to be breaking very heavily toward joe biden. what we do not know and there is disputing analysis about this is how the provisional ballots are breaking. are they breaking the same way? are they breaking roughly evenly for the candidates or are they breaking toward donald trump? lots of opinions out there. i don't have any evidence. >> well, big picture, ali, to

your point it's heading into friday night on the east coast, that is the biggest margin that joe biden has had yet all week in the crucial state of pennsylvania. >> yeah. >> so that's big. just if we want to top line the take away. bigger number than four hours a ago. i want to get -- >> i'm just looking for numbers to come in. they haven't in allegheny county, pittsburgh where joe biden has 128,000 lead and we're looking for about 40,000 votes to come in from philadelphia county. 95% in. joe biden has a 428,000 vote lead. philadelphia county has been very, very consistent. the idea that there are 40,000 more votes to come in look at how these are generally breaking. 80 to 18. so that lead may increase with those numbers. >> right. as you say, we're watching something that gets higher and higher stakes for donald trump. this is bad news for donald trump because he is looking to make up a count. so the longer it goes, the fewer votes that are left with him

having to turn what you're showing on the count, that's tough for him but anything can happen. before i cut away, ali, let's go back to nevada and give us the full top line statewide nevada because you said, it was a small update but every little bit matters. show us statewide. >> 93% of the votes are in. we think there may be another 100,000 to come in. joe biden is leading at this point. look how close 49.8 to 48. the lead is 22,657 votes. so again, when you look at the various paths to victory, if things go down the way they are right now, if joe biden maintains his lead in nevada and arizona, he gets to 270 without thinking about pennsylvania. there is no path to victory left for donald trump without pennsylvania, which is why all of our energy is there. if he doesn't win pennsylvania, joe biden -- donald trump cannot be reerectlected president. joe biden doesn't need pennsylvania to win. >> all very clear at the big

board and as mentioned, we'll keep coming back any time you get numbers. stay close. a trump insider dubbing the legal effort at this point a quote clown show. we have a fact check and special guest, the one and only acting solicitor general arguing before the supreme court and bringing insights to you right after this break. d bringing insights to you right after this break. look at this human trying to get in shape. you know what he will get? muscle pain. give up, the couch is calling. i say, it's me, the couch, i'm calling. pain says you can't. advil says you can. you can crush ice, make nismoothies, and do even more. chop salsas, spoon thick smoothie bowls, even power through dough, and never stall. the ninja foodi power pitcher.

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falsehoods, fact checking the actual count. even the fox news publication in the new york post hit trump as downcast and making baseless claims about fraud. the push back matters because today, trump backed off a little bit in a written statement saying he'll use every aspect of the law to guarantee the american people have confidence in government and the election. and any candidate may of course, request recounts within the required margin or file suits about the process. i want to tell you two more trump lawsuits got tossed for lack of evidence in michigan and georgia which may be a problem for trump's pending suits in nevada that argue about signatures but lack much evidence and there is one case that might matter in theory about mail ballots in pennsylvania. but here trump got very bad news in that state's new numbers. it turns out even if trump were to win and get those ballots tossed, the number ranges to about 500 ballots in larger

counties. in fact, the top pennsylvania elections official explained it as you see here, quote, unless it's super close, it won't be making or breaking this one way or another. so that's a challenge to a few hundred voetes per county when biden leads you see here by over 14,000 votes. that official update under scores how these cases turn on law and votes. pennsylvania officials stating even if trump were to prevail on the law, an outcome that might be hard to imagine, he would lose because of the number of people who voted against him. to paraphase sean carter, we don't believe you. you need more people. joining me now is neal katyal from the obama administration. walk us through the facts and the law starting in pennsylvania. >> okay. so i think, you know, he needles more than people, ari.

legal scholars have studied claims like these from black stone to lord hail and describe these claims with the technical legal term of butkis. they set the deadline and set it for tuesday and it only the pennsylvania supreme court that extended it to today and somehow they've got a theory that that violates the constitution. it's a terrible theory. it's never been accepted by the supreme court in more than 200 years but as the leadup said, the real problem with that is facts here. even if you toss out all those ballots from tuesday on, which aren't part of the pennsylvania counts that we're looking at, even still, it's not even nearly enough to make up the difference. so, you know, i think lawyers basically say if you've got the facts on your -- if you don't have the facts on your side, pound the law. if you don't have the law on your side, pound the facts.

the problem for trump is he's got neither the law nor the facts in pennsylvania or frankly anywhere else. many other lawsuits that have been filed are really at the ends. they're like tossing out 53 ballots here because they weren't on a particular table or things like that. they are technicalities. biden has right now the force of the american people behind him, the force of the voters and what trump is doing is trying to send his lawyers in to go in and say stop counting, stop do this. don't count those people. it's a very, very tough argument. >> a lot of americans, neal, are watching this tonight and this week but not necessarily tracking this all year. they've heard that donald trump put three people on the supreme court in one term and that there is republican appointed majority on the court and so, they don't necessarily think about it the way you do as someone that's literally argued dozens of times before that court yes, while there are times ideology and back ground may matter, i would

say, can you walk us through why the supreme court regardless of party sees itself as a last resort on this stuff. if you only heard donald trump this week and plenty of people get his information from him, he seemed to wrongly believe it a first resort and the supreme court wants to come in and deal with this. >> the whole concept of law is exactly that, it's not politics. it's something else. we set the rules in advance and apply them even handedly and that's why lady justice is blind folded. why do americans have that view? because of people like donald trump's legal advisors that yesterday went on tv and said oh, donald trump put three justices on the court, we're hoping amy barrett comes through for us and things like that. and, you know, apart from this election, apart from everything trump has done, the idea that you have a president and his advisors out there saying this is our supreme court, they're in our pocket and things like that,

it is so corrosive. that's why the chief justice said they aren't trump judges or obama judges, they are just judges. people are watching thinking oh, you know, these political supreme court justices are going to do something. no, you got to have a viable legal claim. trump has again these legal t m term. >> thank you, sir. we'll call on you in the days ahead. i have to fit in a break but we have more going inside biden world with a special guest that's been on his side as the numbers build towards not a call but a lot of of tptimism there the cusp of the presidency. ism n the cusp of the presidency

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live pictures from the biden headquarters in wilmington, delaware. joe biden was at one point today expected to speak tonight. that was reported. campaign officials are telling us now tonight it is unlikely unless there are independent calls making him the projected winner of the electoral college in the white house. the biden transition website launching this week with references to the pandemic, the economy, climate change and racial injustice. of course, we can't have a transition until you're the president elect. right now the race is not formally called, not by us at nbc or anywhere else. the trump team saying they're not preparing any concession yet, either. i want to get right to special guests. i'm joined by palo ramos, a former special assistant to dr. jill biden. she knows her way well around that family and their work and we're joined by cornell belcher from the obama team as well. both of you have a firm understanding of what kinds of pins and needles there can be on

a night like this for a campaign. i want to go right to you on the bidens and specifically, of course joe biden as the candidate in the lead. how do you think from your knowledge of him he's approaching this and something even as straightforward but as high stakes as when does he speak again? does tonight look like if there is no call? does this weekend look like against an unusual income bent preside -- incumbent president who is behind? >> a lot of people have that question. when is joe biden speaking? why isn't he doing it sooner? we need this. those are valid questions but the reason people voted for joe biden is because of this moment, in moments of chaos and uncertainty, he offers calmness. in moments of division, he offers unity. and i think the most important thing that people are looking forward are those promises that he made and what i do know and again, i mean, i am now out of that world, right? i carry different hats but i can say with certainty joe biden is

a man that keeps his promise. he's a man that keeps his word. the promises that he made to many black and brown folks of creating a pathway to citizen ship in the first 100 days, of reuniting those kids, of passing the equalityact. those are things people are looking forward and can't wait to see it happen. these are things joe biden is keeping this mind. i'm assuming he's doing what any leader should do. take a step back and see what the country is doing. looking at the states and it's black and brown folks propelling -- >> i'm cutting in -- i apologize. steve kornacki is back at the big board with a p pennsylvania update. >> the effect has been biden's lead goes up again. 16,784 is the statewide lead. these continuous incremental climbs for joe biden.

as this vote comes in from parts around the state. up to 16,784 right now. >> steve, that would be at 16 k. that's the highest this early in the hour. that would be the highest margin biden has had in pennsylvania yet. >> you can expect it likely to get higher. considerably. the trend here of where the out standing vote is where the out standing mail vote is. the absentee. that continuous streak of the being heavily pro-biden. the other question that we have been talking about is the category of the provisional ballot in pennsylvania. a topic that might be complicated this year than the past. it used to be a smaller number traditionally of provisional ballots. there might be something in the neighborhood of 100,000. that's vastly more than normal.

in an election. there's a possibility. there might be delay in folks officially declaring winners in pennsylvania. i think there's a desire to see some of the provisional vote come in and see if the pattern would have to be when these provisionals come in it would have been extremely lopsided protrump. there's some reason here to think that this provisional vote might be more republican than you would normally get with provisional ballots. we can get into why. but it needs to take the, biden running up the score with the mail ballots it will put trump in a position he has to win provisionals in lopsided landsli landslide fashion. in democratic areas.

so it's one of those things where you can see an advantage here for biden. you can kind of see okay, there's a complicated set of out standing ballots. but let's be clear, it would take something extraordinary in the provisionals for trump erode what biden is building. >> very clear. when you're playing with fewer votes left, the margin you would need "outfron need out out of that remaining batch. this was a big news. stay with me. i'll bring in colonel belcher. i want to get your reaction. and then steve will give us further analysis. we have him at the big board. 16,000 largest margin to date in a must win state for trump. and a state that would put biden

over the top. but doesn't have to win it. >> if nii were in a war room looking at that map and the rest of the vote is still out standing, i feel fairly confident. that my lead is not over taken. to the point the x factor is provisional. historically they have been something that you see minorties cast. and especially back to georgia. where the previous election cycle minorties cast those because something was going wrong at the election place. this time around we don't know. there maybe more republicans doing it. if i look at the big board and see the rest of the vote is coming from. i think it's a stretch to say trump can make this up. we have to stay cautious. >> on that point. we say it's a stretch, that's

forward looking. let's look at history and precedent. have you seen a time tht modern era in the last 50 years where the kind of counties that steve is tracking turning in ballots of whatever nature, would come back 60, 40. 70, 30 republican. >> no. but we're in a dimpt tifferent n history. there was a republican surge on election day. we have to be cautious. did it change things in the provisional. we don't know yet. >> walk us through before i let you go to the special coverage and joy reid and everything coming up. final question in this hour, why is joe biden's lead going up in pa and still too close to call? >> it continues to go up because

we continue to get report rs of the mail votes and tallying them up and in philadelphia, where pittsburg is. as you saw here, in north hampton county. the votes that biden got a minute ago to put him up 16,000. he was winning 73% there. of the mail in vote. entirely consistent with what we have seen everywhere. biden is doing extremely well. every time they open up mail in ballots. and we have a considerable number of mail in ballots yet to be reported out here. biden lead of 16874 just when you get the remaining ballots it's clear he's winning that. he'll pad the statewide lead. and the provisional ballots and how to think about those. it's a complicated weedy question. there are about 100,000 of those

provisional ballots out there. you can make an argument for a solid democratic contingent. or might be more republican than usual. i think if biden is building the kind of lead it looks like he's building, with the mail ballots and absentee, that provisional ballot if it's in between good nor democrats and republicans that wouldn't be good enough for trump. because trump would be fighting to erode a big lead at that point. it needs to be overwhelmingly for trump. >> you make it clear. i know you're always focussed on the big board and the work. not the personal. i hope you permit me to say i don't think i'm the only american right now that you were able to nap this afternoon. you'll be busy tonight. >> thank you. i wish i hadn't napped. i'm playing catch up here. >> we're happy. your catch up looks right on the

ball. steve kornacki will be busy. i'm releasing him. i want to return to you, the cut away as we promise when there's new numbers. inside the mind set of the bidens. i want to read a statement from the campaign. they have been all this talk about what trump thinks and will he concede. which is not legally relevant. the campaign said this before in july the american people will decide the election and the u.s. government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the white house. >> yes. people think biden maybe playing nice. at the end of the day he's playing the game as well. he has been saying this constantly. the people will decide. there's so much trump can do. the system will work in his favor. as we see the numbers.

knowing he may win in a matter of hours he knows he's walking into an extremely divided country. that's the challenge. he's up against uniting a divided country and promises. not a lot of people can do that. the reason why many people saw biden as the winner potentially is because he can do that. >> yeah. i want to thank both of you. i want to give viewers an update. we came on the air tonight we told you there are six states undecided. no calls at this hour. they remain undecided. what's changed is balg lead for joe biden. a building lead for joe biden in pennsylvania. questions about the remaining provisional ballots a lead that has grown to the highest of the week. 16,700 vote margin for gerrymander in the crucial state of pennsylvania. must win for trump. key for biden but he has other

paths. i'm signing off. thank you for joining us. i would encourage you not go anywhere. joy reid continues our special election coverage next. good evening and welcome tonight. night four of election night. more than three long days since we started kountding the votes. i know, america. i get it. waiting to exhale. so am i. one thing has become clear, former vice president gerrymander is weis well within striking distance. as vote counting continues. ahead in nevada, georgia, arizona and in