♪♪ this sunday, afghanistan's sudden collapse. taliban fighters on the brink of total control of the country. and they have entered the capital city of kabul, prompting the u.s. to increase the number of troops for the evacuation of the embassy which has begun. president biden, though, standing firm on the u.s. withdrawal. >> we're going to continue to keep our commitment. i do not regret my decision. >> i'll talk to secretary of state antony blinken and to nbc's richard engel in kabul. also, the growing covid crisis. >> we're in an emergency situation here. no doubt about it. >> covid cases rising nationwide, overburdening hospitals. >> we're not machines.

we can't continue to do this forever. >> with children caught in the middle over mask mandates in school. i have two in schools. neither will wear masks. >> we're seeing more kids symptomatic and more kids hospitalized due to the delta variant. >> my guest, epidemiologist michael osterholm of the university of minnesota. a changing country. the new census report. rural america shrinks as urban america grows. what that means for political power in the coming decade. joining me for inside analysis is pollster cornell belceh, anne gear ran, white house correspondent for "the washington post." republican pollster kristen soltis anderson and peter baker, chief white house correspondent for "the new york times." welcome to sunday, it's "meet the press." >> announcer: from nbc news in washington, the longest running show in television history, this is "meet the press" with chuck todd. good sunday morning. the scale of the developing disaster in afghanistan has

exceeded the most pessimistic of predictions. taliban forces seized control of the city of jalalabad without a fight overnight. they've now entered the capital city of kabul. they're negotiating with the government to take over the city without bloodshed. they're looking for unconditional surrender. president biden yesterday increased the number of troops he's sending to kabul to help evacuate americans and our allies, and the u.s. embassy evacuation has now begun in full. in just the past week, the taliban have overrun government forces, seizing control of roughly two dozen provincial capitals, often without a fight as the afghan army simply melts away. the peril for president biden is clear, he runs the risk of repeating the very saigon in 1975 image he hoped to avoid. in a statement yesterday mr. biden said the troop withdrawal deal that president trump struck last year is what tied his hands. quote, it left the taliban in the strongest position militarily since 2001 and

imposed a may 1, 2021 deadline on the u.s. forces. that said, the collapse we're witnessing is happening on president biden's watch, and the blame will inevitably fall to him if the fallout is as bad as some fear. yes, americans in both parties supported an end to this 20-year-forever war. they also would like to see security. no one likes to see the united states humiliated. this will haunt mr. biden's legacy. especially if the country once again becomes a base for terrorist groups like al qaeda and their renewed attacks on the u.s. and the west. the taliban are sweeping across afghanistan taking control of at least 30 of 34 provinces over the last ten days and their provincial capital, including afghanistan's second and third-largest cities. now they're in kabul. just last month, president biden promised -- >> there's going to be no circumstance you'll see people lifted off the roof of an embassy. >> now president biden has ordered troops back to

afghanistan, raising it to 5,000, to secure the evacuation of the u.s. embassy. which has now begun. the embassy staff have been instructed to shred sensitive documents. and destroy computers. the airport is the only safe way in and out of afghanistan. >> that's one of the reasons why we move these forces -- we're moving these forces into kabul to assist with this particular mission because we know time is a precious commodity here. united states interpreters or other jobs have been evacuated to the united states. roughly 88,000, including family members, could need to be evacuated. according to a non-profit advocacy group. >> we have a sacred moral obligation to help those who helped us. we're not walking away from that. >> the united nations is warning of a larger humanitarian disaster. >> if they arrest us, they will kill us. if we run, they will kill us. >> given the situation now, how do you see the future of afghanistan? >> taliban is not afraid of the world superpowers, not afraid of the b 56 or b-52. they're afraid of the woman.

>> the top u.s. general in afghanistan said a taliban takeover could allow al qaeda to rebuild. >> that pressure comes off they'll regenerate and only a matter of time before we see them assert themselves and attacks. >> now as president biden stands by his withdrawal strategy. >> we'll continue to keep our commitment. i do not regret my decision. >> he's likely to own afghanistan's collapse. >> he owns this now completely. it isn't donald trump's afghan's policy. it's joe biden's. >> it's a tragedy that was entirely preventable. >> up until now, most americans supported the military withdrawal which was initially announced last year by then president trump. but some who served in america's longest war are asking what their sacrifices were for? >> i lost friends there. it's hard to understand what it was for. if this is how it ends, how do you tell veterans it was worth it? >> why did we spend the past decade there? what was the purpose? what was the goal? >> joining me from kabul, a

place he's been many, many times is my colleague richard engel. richard, i know you've been seeing a lot of helicopters. we're seeing the evacuation, i guess, begin. what is the sentiment like right now on the streets of kabul? >> reporter: i was just walking around kabul, and i can tell you the mood is changing. this was a city that felt different from the rest of afghanistan. it was a cosmopolitan city that wanted to be an international hub. there was an optimism here, even in the worst days. now there are a lot of hard stares, and people are preparing for the worst. they're thinking about where to move their families. there are many people who don't know what to do, because they worked for the u.s. military. not only translators. you have contractors, subcontractors, cleaners, security guards. they don't know what they're supposed to do. this city is preparing for a taliban takeover. i was filming -- if you'll excuse. there's a lot of noise because

there's a constant stream of helicopters. there was a beauty salon that we used to film at because it was a great place to see modern women, this new face of kabul, and out front on the glass front they had a lot of pictures of women who had their hair done and their makeup done, they have now painted over all that and torn down all the posters because they know what the taliban want, they know what the taliban expect and they know that the taliban are here. there's an increasing sense of lawlessness on the streets. it's intimidating. there's been some looting because you've seen a total collapse of the security forces down to local police officers. some of them are changing out of their uniforms, wearing traditional dress. there have been looters pretending to be taliban, going up and ripping guns out of police officers' hands. so afghans are worried about looting, worried about the taliban's imminent arrival. they're already in pockets of the city.

they're very angry. they're angry at the u.s., angry at everybody. they're angry at the government and they're worried. >> richard, ryan crocker, the longtime ambassador to afghanistan under the obama administration, he said the taliban are perhaps even meaner and more deadlier as a -- whatever you want to call them, as a governing entity than they were 20 years ago. is that your observation as well? >> reporter: much so. a thousand percent. a thousand percent. they're much better fighters. they've been fighting against the best military in the world, the u.s. military, for 20 years. that's how guerilla groups, insurgencies get better. they sharpen their knives on the army of their adversaries and that's what the taliban has been doing for 20 years and they are victorious. they can use this as a recruiting tool. they are now the champions of the jihadi movement because they pushed out the united states. they're going to be able to live on that for a long time and attract a lot of recruits.

will this country once again be a center of terrorism, a center of al qaeda? already today thousands of al qaeda and taliban prisoners were freed from jail, today. >> richard engel in kabul watching the withdrawal and the evacuation, stay safe, my friend. thanks very much. joining me now is secretary of state antony blinken. secretary blinken, welcome back to "meet the press," sir. >> thanks for having me on, chuck. >> what is happening right now in kabul? we have reports that the taliban and the afghan government are in negotiations for what the taliban is referring to as a peaceful surrender. there are reports we're going to close the american embassy perhaps as early as monday. what can you tell us? >> well, it's a very fluid situation. here is what i can tell you, chuck. we're focused, and the president is focused first and foremost on the safety and security of our personnel. we're moving personnel to the

airport, to a facility there. we've been focused all along on making sure they're safe and secure. the president, as you know, has sent in a significant force to make sure that we can proceed with an orderly move and getting down to a core diplomatic presence in kabul. we're working that very, very assiduously right now. at the same time we've seen reports of the afghans -- the afghan government and the taliban talking about the way forward. we're going to work to support those efforts. we have a team in doha to do that, working with the united nations, working with other interested countries including qatar, to see if there can be a peaceful resolution going forward, a peaceful settlement, a peaceful transfer of power. that would be good for the people of afghanistan to avoid further bloodshed. >> have you sought assurance from the taliban for safe passage of americans out of kabul?

>> not a question of assurances. we've been very clear with the taliban that any effort on their part to interrupt our operation, to attack our forces, attack our personnel, would be met with a very strong, decisive response. that's why the president sent 5,000 forces in to assure we can proceed in a safe and orderly manner. so far that's what's happened. >> the fall of kabul seems -- inevitable now. do you concur with that? >> look, what we're focused on now is making sure that we can get our people to a safe and secure place. that we can do right by the people who stood with us in afghanistan all these years, including afghans who worked for the embassy, worked for our military. we have a massive effort under way to bring afghans at risk out of the country if that's what they so desire. ultimately, it's up to the afghan government, up to the taliban to decide the way forward for the country, including kabul. >> i want to play something you

said in june about the withdrawal and get you to respond on the other side. here it is. >> i don't think it's going to be something that happens from a friday to a monday. so i wouldn't necessarily equate the departure of our forces in july, august or by early september with some kind of immediate deterioration in the situation. >> how did that assessment end up so wrong? is that an intelligence assessment that went wrong? is that a pentagon assessment that went wrong, your own? it does not age well. >> two things, chuck. first, we've known all along that the taliban was at its strongest position in terms of its strength since 2001. when we came to office, that was the fact. we said all along, including back then, that there was a real chance the taliban would make significant gains throughout afghanistan. but on the other hand, i have to

tell you that the inability of afghan security forces to defend their country has played a very powerful role in what we've seen over the last few weeks. the fact is, we invested -- the international community invested over 20 years billions of dollars in these forces, 300,000 of them, with an air force, something the taliban didn't have, with the most modern, sophisticated equipment. unfortunately, tragically, they have not been able to defend the country. i think that explains why it has moved as quickly as it's moved. >> let me get you to respond to this. the puzzle is the absence of contingency planning, if everyone knew we were headed for the exits, why didn't we have a plan over the past two years for making this work? >> we can debate it staying or going. we'll relitigate perhaps for a decade. we had two presidents that were pretty insistent we were going to get out. it does look like -- this looks

like a chaotic withdrawal for something politically seemed inevitable to the american people. what happened there? >> we've been working on this departure, this drawdown for months. we began an ordered departure from our embassy back at the end of april. as facts have changed, we've adjusted to that. that's exactly why the president sent in forces we had at our disposal to make sure we could do this in the safest, most orderly way possible. all those plans have been in place. it's also true that in terms of refugees, in terms of bringing people out, the system we inherited had been decimated. we've been working hard to rebuild that, as you know. we've been doing that in realtime. but chuck, stepping back -- and that's really important, because i think it's vital we put all this in context. here are the facts. as the president said, we went

into afghanistan 20 years ago for one mission, and that was to deal with the folks that attacked us on 9/11, to bring them to justice and make sure to the best of our ability they wouldn't be able to do that from afghanistan. osama bin laden was brought to justice a decade ago. al qaeda has been vastly diminished. its current capacity to attack us from afghanistan is negligible. we have the capacity going forward to make sure we have forces in place to deal with a reemergence of terrorism. that's why we went. we succeeded in achieving those fundamental objectives. the idea we would sign up for remaining there in the midst of a civil war for another 5, 10 or 20 years was not in the national interest. that was the hard decision the president made. >> i guess the question isn't about 5 or 10 years. there's a lot oaf backseat driving on this. why do this in the summer? fighting in afghanistan is seasonal. why not delay the withdrawal to the winter and give the afghan security forces a chance, when we know the taliban retreats in the winter?

was there any -- the idea that you accept bad deal by trump, but you'll turn back other bad deals by trump? what was wrong with delaying six months? >> because we inherited a deadline negotiated by the previous administration. that deadline was may 1st. the idea that we could have maintained the status quo beyond may 1st if the president decided to stay i think is a fiction. here is what is likely to have happened had the president decided to do that. during the time from when the agreement was reached to may 1st, the taliban had stopped attacking our forces, stopped attacking nato forces. it had not sought to take over the entire country by going at these major provincial capitals. come may 2nd, if the president decided to stay, all gloves would have been off. we would have been back at war with the taliban attacking our forces. the offensive you have seen throughout the country almost certainly would have proceeded. we would have had about 2,500 forces in counted with air power. that would not have been sufficient to deal with the situation, and i would be on

your show right now explaining why we were sending tens of thousands of forces back in afghanistan to restart a war that we need to end. >> why are you convinced that we're not going to see -- in the words reportedly of secretary austin in a report this morning that he was making the case for staying a little bit longer -- by noting what happened after we withdrew from iraq and the rise of isis? why are you convinced we're not going to see a replay of that movie? >> a few things, chuck. first, we have and will maintain consistent capacity to deal with the reemergence of a threat by afghanistan. we do this in other parts of the world, in yemen, parts of syria. in parts of africa. our capacity to do that is far different and far better it was before 9/11, for example. at the same time the taliban have a certain self-interest in this. they know what happened the last time they harbored a terrorist group that attacked the united

states. it's not in their self-interest to allow a repeat of that. >> that seems to be a lot of -- some people might say that's a bit of wishful thinking. the propaganda opportunity that they may have, particularly coming up on the 20th anniversary of 9/11, that has got to scare some folks. isis, when they made their expanse, it ended up inspiring acolytes to do attacks on the west, attacks in this country. are you at all concerned about the propaganda victory these extremists are about to have on the 20th anniversary of 9/11? >> chuck, what we are is extremely vigilant. the president instructed all of us, starting with the intelligence community, starting with the pentagon, to make sure we're maintaining the vigilance and the capacity to see the reemergence of any terrorist threat and to be able to deal with it effectively and in realtime, and we have confidence

we can do that. >> are we definitely closing the embassy? >> we're moving people out of the embassy to a location at the airport. that's happening right now. my job -- my number one priority is the safety and security of our people. we've adjusted along the way. we stayed and ordered departure from our embassy way back in april. we've done that systematically and progressively and adjusted what was happening on the ground. that's exactly what we're doing now. >> if no american is in the embassy, we've essentially closed the embassy. >> we'll have our core diplomatic presence, in effect, an embassy at a location at the airport. >> the physical embassy is what's moving, but there will be american diplomatic presence that will continue. >> that's correct. >> what do you say to the many u.s. troops, veterans of the afghanistan war who are asking them this morning -- you saw "the washington post" story, why did my friend get blown up?

one army veteran. another army veteran, all the people who went and served are like, why did my friend die? one medic is quoted, there's just really nothing to show for it. why were we even there? i understand we were safe for 20 years. they were trying to fight for something that would keep us safe for another 20 years. what do you say to them. >> first i say god bless you for your service, your sacrifice, for everything you've done for this country and other people around the world. the other thing i say to them is, you succeeded in accomplishing the mission that was set out for you way back on 9/11, after 9/11, and that is getting the folks who attacked us then, helping to bring osama bin laden to justice and making sure to the best of our ability that al qaeda would not be in a position to attack us again from afghanistan. they largely succeeded in meeting those objectives. so that's a very, very important, a very powerful thing.

and i think they can take tremendous pride in what they accomplished. >> is america safer today with the taliban in charge of afghanistan? >> in terms of the threat posed to us before 9/11 that brought us into afghanistan in the first place, we are in a much different and much better place than we were right before 9/11. the group that attacked us, has been dramatically diminished. its capacity ability to attack us again from afghanistan, dramatically diminished. our ability to see if it reemerges and the capacity to do something ability that is very strong. in that sense, i think we're in a much better place than we were 20 years ago. i want to emphasize one point, chuck. you said, i said 20 years, 20 years, $1 trillion, 2,300 americans who lost their lives, a massive investment. the president concluded that it was time to end this war.

in the 19th century the british were there. we've now been there far longer than they have. in the 20th century, the russians were there. we've now been there twice as long as they have. as a strategic matter, there is nothing that our strategic competitors would like more than to see us bogged down and mired in afghanistan for another five, ten, 20 years. that is not in the national interest. >> secretary blinken, i know it's been a long week, long weekend and it may be a long week ahead. thank you for spending a few minutes with us and sharing your perspective. >> thanks for having me, chuck. appreciate it. >> you got it. when we come back, we'll turn to the growing covid crisis in the united states and how children have become the new front line in the battle over masking. epidemiologist michael osterholm joins me next. detoxifies below the gumline... and restores by helping heal gums in as little as 7 days. crest. the #1 toothpaste brand in america.

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at the same time the cdc is now recommending a third dose of the pfizer or moderna vaccine for some people with weakened immune systems. nationwide this highly transmissible delta variant has cases rising in all 50 states. only half the u.s. now vaccinated. the seven-day average of new cases is up to 129,000. that is the highest since early february which is exactly the same thing i said last week, but the number is higher again. joining me is dr. michael osterholm, director of the center for infectious disease research and policy at the university of minnesota. michael, i'd say it's always good to have you on. i have a feeling this is a very dire outlook you have. let me just start with that, sir. how much longer is this surge going to last? i guess this is the fourth wave since we began this conversation. >> when you look inside this wave, it's a series of different events going on. first of all, we have the southern sunbelt states that we

all know are basically at -- really dramatic case increases. if you look at the state of louisiana right now, they're tied with the country of georgia for the highest rate of infections in the world. what we're seeing happen is while those states are starting to potentially level off a bit, we're seeing in the southeast, georgia, south carolina, north carolina, kentucky, southern tennessee, illinois, all to take off. we're seeing in the northwest, states like oregon and washington. we're even seeing in the midwest increases. even if this increase we're seeing in the southern sunbelt states which has been dramatic, at 83,000 hospitalizations today, a month ago at 25,000. it gives you a sense of what's happened in the last month. if the other states take off, the surge could sustain itself for at least another four to six weeks. >> given what we saw happening in india as the delta variant basically came from there, it now looks like the cdc's mask

guidance back in may was a big mistake. do you concur? >> at this point we need to put everything we can towards controlling this virus. one of the things, of course, is masks. i want to qualify that by saying -- and i think this has been a difficult message for many, the nuanced message -- is what kind of mask you're using. i will tell you if the old car who has a seatbelt in it, use it. if you can get a modern car with a seatbelt, collapsible body frame, air bags, use that. computer system to reduce your speed with crash, use that. we've not paid any attention to giving the public the message that you need much more effective masking such as the n95 masks that we talk about or the kn95 for kids. yes, i think masking is very important right now. remember, while vaccination is still the number one, two and three weapons we have, if even

everyone got vaccinated today, this surge would go on as it is right now for the next four to six weeks because these people would not yet have immunity. what they can do today is mask. but get effective masks. that's really saying. >> are you saying -- i'm going toe hold up my mask here that i wore this morning, this one here which is a decent cloth mask that many of us buy on amazon. not good? >> let's put it this way. if you're in a room with someone smoking, would you smell that smoke? that's an aerosol. you know how they travel. you've walked down the street where suddenly you get the whiff of smoke and see somebody 20 feet in front of you. that's the test we have. now, a cloth mask surely can give you some protection, but it's not the kind of protection you get when you use a much more effective mask. we have not talked about that nearly enough. the other thing, chuck, we've been doing a study looking at the public use of masks. we find routinely 20 to 25% of the population will continue to

wear the mask under their nose. that's nothing more than a diaper for our chin. i think what we want to do is inform people, yes, mask, but most importantly, give them the information about how they can get the more effective masks and how they can use them. >> there's a lot of people right now when it comes to kids and the virus that think back to the guidance last year when it was pretty clear that even if kids got the virus, there weren't serious outcomes. is it a changing with delta? we're seeing more children in hospitals, pediatric hospitals are starting to get overwhelmed. is that just that's the largest group of unvaccinated americans and that's why it's there? or do we need to rethink our virus guidance for kids under 12?

>> well, i do believe we need to rethink it. i've been promoting that for some time. the data we have used to come up with recommendations for opening our schools is really exactly as you pointed out, from pre alpha, the previous variant, as well as now delta. this is a different virus in the sense that it's much more infectious. remember, we still have 90 million americans in this country that could be vaccinated that are not. that alone serves as a source for infecting our kids who, as you know, under age 12 cannot be vaccinated yet. we do need to do more. i would also point out the thing that helps you understand the infectiousness of this virus is we're seeing more and more events with outdoor airs. months ago we said if you're outdoors, you're pretty safe. we've had a number of events happening where, in fact, people crowded together outdoors get infected. if that's happening outdoors, imagine what happens to our kids when they're closely together in schools. it is important that we recognize as you have seen in the first week of school in the south, we have had a number of

outbreaks of cases. yeah, we do have to at this point recognize this delta is a very, very bad virus in terms of transmission. >> dr. michael osterholm projecting we may have another four to six weeks at a minimum of this current surge. michael, like i said, it's good to see you. i wish, as always, it were under better circumstances. >> thank you. when we come back, the unfolding disaster in afghanistan. how did id it happen? what can be done now, and what are the political consequences? the panel is next with that discussion. ussion

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welcome back. the panel is with us. anne gearan, white house correspondent from "the washington post." plenty of travel to afghanistan. democratic pollster cornell belcher, peter baker chief white house correspondent for "the new york times," the first american journalist in afghanistan after 9/11, republican pollster kristen soltis anderson. i throw that out there for peter and anne to put you on the spot here. peter, 20 years later, we were there, you were there to tell us how we were going to fight this group called the taliban. 20 years later, it's pretty clear, secretary blinken all but acknowledged that the taliban is in charge. >> yeah, it's over, basically is what secretary blinken said. 20 years ago i hitched a hide on an old soviet helicopter with the afghan rebels going on. cia and special forces hadn't gotten there yet. you could see what kind of country it was. you could see a country that had been brutalized by this taliban regime for years. it's basically a nation of battered spouses.

here we are about to hit the 20th anniversary of 9/11. basically they're going to be back, back exactly the way they were before. secretary blinken basically conceded we're only talking about whether there's a peaceful transfer of power. >> anne, in some ways, this story hasn't changed in ten years. we've been having the same debate, when do we get out, how do we get out and can we get out. >> we have. and now president biden has been on the same side of that debate throughout that entire time. >> there is consistency with him. >> yeah. the basic argument is can nation building work? if it can work, how long do you give it? his argument is that we've been giving it a year and then six months and then another year and then five years, and it never works. so that part of it i think, he's trying to bring to a close, but the basic argument of can afghanistan succeed as a democratic experiment, i believe

we have the full answer of today. >> i want to show the political fallout. both of you are pollsters, kristen and cornell. i'll put up numbers now. this is why both former president trump and current president biden felt very comfortable disagreeing with the pentagon. we know both of them were getting arguments to stay longer. this is, before all the chaos we've been watching, 70% support the decision, 77% among democrats, 56% for republicans. cornell, are these images going to change the politics of this? >> because i'm a presidential campaign dork, i remember '96 senator lugar talking about in his presidential campaign america's prosperity was connected to america's leadership in the world. >> he may be right. >> but his campaign didn't catch fire. right? >> he won vermont i think. >> no, america's attention span is awfully short when it comes to foreign policy. we don't have elections that are

about foreign policy. the war might have been a different thing. but typically we don't have campaigns that are spending money talking about foreign policy. if you've got a congressional candidate spending their time and resources talking about foreign policy as opposed to talking about the anxiousness that moms are having right now with their kids going back to school and the uncertainty of the economy, you're talking -- probably looking at a congressional candidate who is going to lose. >> kristen, do you expect these numbers to change? >> i do expect these numbers to change. i think in part because that 70-some percent of americans who support the withdrawal in afghan, weren't signing up for the failure of planning intelligence and imagination we're seeing unfold on tv screens today. i think especially for those republicans who, joining in with democrats, felt this fatigue. we've been there for 20 years, let's focus on america first, they're interested in their own country's interest. as cornell wisely notes, voters vote on what's in their own interest. we have not had an american president in the last three administrations make a case for why an american presence in

afghanistan would matter. i do think seeing consequences if, for instance, al qaeda is able to re-establish a base and launch attacks against the united states, it goes from being low on the list to being top a-number one list for voters. >> peter, why don't you think we had somebody make the case that bagram air base in kabul, was south korea, was japan, was germany? >> it's remarkable. in some ways this relatively minor investment of resources, in the last few years, right? by the time people wake up tomorrow, we will have more people die in america from covid than we've had combat deaths -- in the last fooi five years. >> in a week. >> in one day. in one time we'll have six times as many people die of covid as combat casualties in five years. we were not actually sustaining a big war effort. very few transportation there, very few troops there. much less than we have in south korea, much less than we have in germany for an outsized impact. we had a stable, if not

satisfying situation in afghanistan. anne is right, the conclusion is we can't make it better. we've seen in the last few days we can make it worse. the withdrawal of those troops for a very small cost we were paying has had outsized impact on the ability and willingness of the afghan forces to defend their own government. it's a dark day, a dark day for america. it's going to be the end of a 20-year experiment, 20 years of epic failure and a dark day especially for the afghan people. 38 million people returned to the tender mercies of the taliban. >> it is a dark day. at the same time, it's interesting we having a debate about spending a trillion dollars on infrastructure. nbc reporting this week showed we spent over a trillion dollars in afghanistan. for the american people, if you're balancing -- should we send a trillion dollars on bridges and roads in fixing up our infrastructure here in the united states or nation building in afghanistan, i think it's pretty clear-cut where the american people are going to fall. >> anne, what's the divide?

clearly a divide between the pentagon and the president. you'll never find a military leader who doesn't want a few more troops and a little more time. that's a fact. do you expect this to have long-term fallout between the white house and the pentagon? the pentagon has looked at, like why is this going so badly. and i think the pentagon is whispering, we didn't want to do it. >> they definitely didn't want to do it. the relationship wasn't fantastic to begin with. biden took office very skeptical of the generals, as he likes to call them, for exactly the point you make. he thinks obama got jammed -- that's his word -- during the surge and he was determined not to be jammed himself. when you have that as the predicate, i think the argument they then had about whether or not to keep a teeny, tiny little force in kabul and bagram as a preventative and basically as spies to keep an eye on

counterterror operations, keep on eye on iran and pakistan, that was the military argument for leaving a small residual force behind. and i think that then you had the president say, no, when donald trump said we're getting out completely, that means that once we leave anybody there, they become targets, and i also think he saw the possibility and the opportunity to do what no other president had been able to do before and end it. that was more important to him than any of the arguments about why a very small force might be cost effective in the long run. >> kristen, mitch mcconnell was on one side of this inside the republican coalition and donald trump was on the other. it's pretty clear this probably would have been just as bad, if not worse, under what trump wanted to do. he wanted to pull everybody out by christmas. if he had won re-election, perhaps he may have done that. is this a big blow for the

isolationist wing over the gop? will this weaken trump's hold over time? >> i would expect a resurgence of the reagan approach within the republican party if they view this as a sign, by pulling back the deterrence, the bad guys feel they have more of a free hand to operate. whether that expresses itself as republicans being more hawkish in places like iran, being more deterrent there, more deterrent in north korea n terms of china, making sure they don't cause mischief there. >> i'll pause the conversation here. when we come back, census week. changing america, for a data nerd like me, it was a huge week. manna from heaven with data. we learned a lot about what some of our political assumptions are, but not so fast. we'll have more in a minute. we'll have more in a minute. but eventually, with spring comes rebirth.

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♪♪ we are back. data download time. a week that's ten years in the making. results of the 2020 census are officially out. let's look at the top line numbers. the big stuff is, for the first time, the white non-hispanic population fell question low below 60%. hispanic populations nearly one in five americans. asian population has nearly doubled over the last 20 years. 6% of the country. while the african-american population technically down, the raw numbers were up, just by a percentage down. the big changes were geographically. huge surges in the large

metropolitan areas. both in the suburbs and medium-size towns and small suburbs. really to me the big political story is the depopulation, if you will, of rural america. it's going to have a huge political consequence. i can just show you through three swing states we talk about a lot. in florida, this is about the only place where population growth helped republicans. around the villages, population gains in central florida, a lot of people moving there. places like osceola, outside jacksonville, that can be helpful to democrats. the atlanta suburbs is getting bigger. what happened in virginia, northern virginia kept getting bigger. forsyth county being one of the fastest growing counties. we're seeing it in texas, smaller counties around dallas, austin, san antonio, houston, all growing, all growing in the direction, if you will, of the democratic coalition. that's what's so -- when you look at this, map makers,

particularly in texas, their rural base has gotten smaller. the suburban areas have gotten bigger. can they even draw districts that definitely favor the republican side? that's going to be a real challenge and why long term this census may be a harbinger for more democratic power even if in the short-term republicans gain in '22. when we come back, the fight over who decides whether children should wear masks in school. d wear masks in school to j.d. power. number one in reliability, 16 times in a row. most awarded for network quality, 27 times in a row. proving once again that nobody builds networks like verizon. that's why we're building 5g right, that's why there's only one best network.

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kristen, there's an interesting pattern. governor desantis was going to take a very strong stance against these mask mandates. then a couple counties pushed back. then he realized he didn't have the legal authority to do what he did. they've surrendered. without claiming it. but so have a bunch of other southern governors. it does seem this delta variant -- there seems to be some nervousness along the no-mandate crowd, that maybe they better be careful here. >> the numbers are really scary, what we're seeing -- this is not just a red state or blue state thing. as your guest earlier in the show noted. the northwestern united states is starting to have outbreaks. you have states like nevada where you've got a democratic governor who voted for biden, but they're still experiencing some pretty scary numbers. i think you're seeing that covid doesn't care about your politics. covid cares about how many people in your state are unvaccinated and being pushed inside into poorly ventilated spaces. in the sunbelt, it's very hot. a lot of the southern united states is experiencing what they experienced last summer.

i think it's going to cause a lot of these governors you have seen in arkansas, for instance, governor hutchison regretting some of his policies. even in a place like arkansas, sarah huckabee sanders coming out with a big op-ed saying i want everyone to get vaccinated. i think the politics of covid are more complicated in the republican party than most are willing to acknowledge. >> you're right that covid doesn't care about the politics, but the politics of this have been really interesting. it has been, if you look at what republican governors across the country have been doing on this, they have been working the trump side of this because they're looking at -- they all think they can be president. they know from a republican standpoint, you've got to have that trump base. there's a cultivated ignorance here, a cultivated aggressive ignorance here about meeting somebody else's political ends. desantis is changing his tune now. also, at the same time desantis' numbers are dropping as the moms are looking at what's happening in sending their kids back to school.

>> anne, it does seem as if -- it's funny. i think all of -- i don't want to say -- biden, his numbers have fallen a little bit. i think it's all covid related. yes, there's other stuff going on. as covid goes, everything else looks worse if covid is not going well. >> right. that was his bet from the beginning. i will have a successful presidency and redeem the vote that americans placed in me, faith americans placed in in me if i can get ahead of the virus and roll out the vaccines effectively and fix the economy that covid destroyed. that was it, and that's all they did for three months. they really thought they were on top of it. so the fact that this whole resurgence is coming -- not only that it's coming at all, but that it's coming at exactly the moment when his legislative agenda, which they deferred, waiting to get covid out of the way is now actually finally rolling through and, obviously, this much closer to the midterms was a blow beyond anything that

they really had planned for. >> this was supposed to be his big crowning week of success on infrastructure in the senate and the next bill -- >> i'm sorry. mitch mcconnell and 18 other republicans supported his plan? i'm sorry. who would have taken that bet? >> and yet that isn't the biggest news of the week. part is afghanistan. part of it is covid. there's exhaustion. there's a glimmer of hope. you saw vaccinations going up again. i think the number was like a million in a single day, close to a million, highest in a two-month period. so people are beginning to get scared, hopefully they began to get vaccinated. >> vaccine mandates are more popular than politicians make them out to be. >> they generally are. the point you make, peter, is important. there's a characterization of folks who haven't gotten vaccinated yet as being ignorant or having been fed misinformation. there are a lot of people their

cost analysis i don't think covid is a big deal. my neighbor, seemed like they had a lot of side effects. that cost-benefit analysis changes a lot under delta. that's the one silver lining, it's waking a lot of people up to the importance of vaccinations. >> there was a bunch of big stories this week. the resignation of one of the most famous names in american politics, andrew cuomo. the most astonishing thing was his last word wasn't resignation. i've got to read for you the interview he gave to "new york magazine" where he claimed the following. "i'm not going to drag the state through the mud, through a three-month, four-month impeachment and then win and have made the state legislature and state government look like a ship of fools when everything i've done my whole life is for the exact opposite." wow, that's quite the statement there. >> our politics will be a lot better when women are running more of our government and there are more women governors, more women senators and more women congressmen. >> you'll be popular at home later today. >> it's true.

the arrogance of man has run its course in politics. women are saying time's up. i feel like i should be letting you two talk about this. but our time is up and the arrogant statement he made is unacceptable. >> anne? >> as a new yorker, the demise of the cuomo dynasty is really spectacular. i'm not at all surprised by his uberous in saying he would have beaten this, but i don't know. it seems unlikely. >> peter, i don't think the chances are zero that he files for an election in 2022. >> i don't think it's zero. he's got a lot of money. he does have a lot of money and that raises a lot of speculation about what he might do. clearly you give an interview to "new york magazine" because you clearly don't want to crawl away and hide. does that mean he has an opportunity there? doesn't seem like it. >> he can't win a democratic primary in new york. >> not a one-on-one. that's all we have for today. thanks for watching. we'll be back next week. if you haven't gotten vaccinated, please do.

if it's sunday, it's "meet the press." ♪♪ i have to tell you that the inability of afghan security forces to defend their country has played a very powerful role in what we've seen over the last, the last few weeks. the fact is we invested. the international community invested over 20 years, billions of dollars in these forces, 300,000 of them, with an air force, something the taliban didn't have, with the most modern sophisticated equipment. and unfortunately tragically, they have not been able to defend the country. >> this morning the taliban is on the brink of power in afghanistan. more american troops are