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[music stops] right now on msnbc reports, the security transformation just about complete at the capitol before saturday's pro-january 6th rally. new details on what you can't see to keep people safe. and the conspiracy theory sweeping the extremist internet swath. hints about the fda's position ahead of tomorrow's big meeting. and the white house outreach to nikki minaj. what she's saying and what she's not saying and why that matters to people.

some republicans calling for general milley to step down after this new trump-era reporting came out. what does gop congressman adam kinzinger think? we'll ask him about that and more on the show. leighann caldwell is outside the capitol. latest on security preps. what's being done. how confident officials are and what they think they can expect on this saturday rally. >> reporter: hey, hallie. capitol police are taking no chances for what's going to take place on saturday. they have put up this fence overnight. this goes around the perimeter of the capitol. in addition, we have these concrete barricades who were put up to make sure the fence does not topple over. in addition, there's these new high-security cameras that do facial recognition. capitol police officer just told me these cameras are straight

from afghanistan, that they came here for capitol police. this is new equipment for them. now all of these security preparations are taking place just two days before the rally. this fence is still open. it will obviously be closed on saturday. and there is allowed traffic to still be driving around here but, again, traffic will be closed on saturday as well. they're doing everything they can to prepare for what they were unable to do on january 6th. hallie, let me say, members of congress are tweeting, and i just ran into a person i know, who has worked on capitol hill for many years, who said it is very depressing that these precautions are even necessary. >> yeah. >> hallie? >> leighann, stand by for a second. i want to turn to you, brandy, and this reporting you have with ben collins, about what you're seeing online and this honey pot or false flag theory floating around on these extremist sites saying if you come on saturday

it's just this big op to arrest you ultimately. talk about that. this is different, right, the chatter that it was, say, let's say january 4th, two days before what was a rally that turned into a riot and insurrection. >> yeah. so, the extremists forums we were watching before january 6th before the capitol attack do not feel the same about the september 18th rally. they overwhelmingly claim in maga forums and qanon forums, and anti-vaxxer forums, all the people that made up the factions of the january 6th attack, they all claim now this is a secret government plot. that it's just to arrest people. they're telling their members to stay away. they call it a false flag, honey pot where feds will trap them and coerce them to commit crimes and be videotaped on the fancy cameras leigh ann just mentioned. >> let me go to you, leigh ann

and the national guard. what's the factor there? >> there are precautions on that front as well. capitol police have put in a preliminary request to the pentagon to ask for the national guard if it's necessary. we obviously don't know if that's going to be necessary just yet. but if that call needs to happen, it's not going to be like it did on january 6th where there was a lot of chaos and controversy over that call. so, once again, another precaution is put in place on needing a bigger force, if needed. hallie? >> on a political front, brandy, when you look at what you're seeing online, where does it trace back to, right? talk about where it comes from, where it originates and any impact that you see. >> reporter: well, it's porno know. let's care these two rallies. first rally on january 6th, this was planned by numerous factions on the right. this rally on saturday is just one guy. matt brainard is his name,

former trump campaign staffer. he is sort of the known, not very influential wanna be sort of in trump maga politics, jumps from issue to issue. he has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for the so-called stolen election. of course, he's raising money now on this issue, claiming people prosecuted for january 6th are some kind of political prisoners. online groups again behind january 6th had millions of members talking positively about it. this is just not what we're seeing this time. who is behind this? really just a guy with maybe a couple hundred people. what we're afraid of and extremists are lone wolf attacks or the kind of shenanigans that people like the proud boys bring to events where a lot of people are. >> speaking of the proud boys, leigh ann, there's updates on the oath keepers, right, and some of the charges against some of their members, if you will, related to january 6th. what can you tell us?

>> reporter: yeah, that's right. there is another plea deal by an alleged oath keeper just yesterday in court. this is the second oath keeper to accept a plea. he was charged with two counts, one including conspiracy and one is aiding and abetting disruption of congress. three of those charges have been dropped. hallie, more than 600 people have been charged from january 6th, and so there's a lot of trials or pleas still to be had. hallie? >> leigh ann caldwell, brandy zadrosny, thanks to you. we'll be talking about this later in the show with a member of congress. appreciate your time this morning. before we get there, we want to get other key headlines today, including new clues ahead of tomorrow's fda meeting on covid shots. maybe a little bit of a glimpse of what to expect with now more questions on whether they will really sell off on this booster shot campaign that top officials outside the fda are getting

ready to launch next week. gabe gutierrez is outside headquarters in washed and we've got medical contributor dr. kavita patel with us, adviser in the obama administration. it is perhaps in the realm of possibility that the fda does not recommend boosters for the general public yet after tomorrow's meeting. you have the biden administration still previewing the launch of this booster campaign starting next week. what's the deal? >> reporter: hey there, hallie. yes, it's highly controversial. yes, as you mentioned, last month the biden administration put forward a plan that vaccine boosters would be available starting next week. but tomorrow, pfizer will begin breaking down its new booster shot data for this panel of outside advisers to the fda. and then that panel is expected to recommend whether or not more americans should get the extra shot to help protect against covid. now pfizer released new data yesterday, 52-page report, essentially saying that people

who got vaccinated in january had a two-fold increase risk of breakthrough infection compared to those who were vaccinated in april. however, this is based on research conducted in israel. some critics have said that this study just wasn't big enough, that there are lots of questions about this. in fact, fda staff has not yet taken a position on whether booster shots should be required, saying that there isn't enough evidence that's been verified. other top public health officials have said the focus instead should be, hallie, on getting people the first dose rather than trying to get, you know, a third dose from moderna or pfizer. moderna's president yesterday told nbc news that he did see some waning protection of its vaccine and also that he expected there to be more severe infections that could crop up as this pandemic wears on. critics say that could be just because of the delta variant and the increased number of cases,

not because of any waning protection, hallie. this is still highly controversial among public health officials. again, tomorrow, pfizer is expected to discuss its data with that panel of outside experts. the fda will make its recommendation, hallie. >> gabe, thank you. let me turn to you, doctor. pull out your doctor to plain english translation sheet here. i know you read through that briefing document. talk to us about what the data shows. is it possible they land somewhere in the middle tomorrow? some people need boosters, some people don't. >> yeah, hallie, that is the right question to ask. who really needs boosters? the data shows three things. number one, absolutely what gabe said, that there is waning, decreasing immunity. that happens over time with other vaccines. we expect that. yes, indeed, the delta variant posed higher risk for infections, period, but also breakthrough infections. the third thing, we have israeli

data that came in late yesterday for their presentation tomorrow to the fda advisory committee that shows that people who received boosters, particularly, hallie, those 60 and older, actually had a ten-fold reduction of risk relative to people who did not get boosters of severe disease. so, the reason i'm saying that, in plain english, it does look like that third shot has really done this -- countrywide now, third shot really does protect against severe disease. outstanding questions, though? we've always talked, hallie, about the protection of these vaccines against death. we don't have any of that data. that's going to come up as another kind of question about who needs this. and then the next question really is, pfizer put in an application for, on top of their approval, their approval is for 16 and above. there's going to be a spirited debate about what to do with people between the ages of, for example, people ages 16 to 60 and where do they need to be

prioritized? from a process standpoint, hallie, we'll have an advisory committee meeting tomorrow. the fda needs to take action. and then the cdc still has to meet at their advisory committee and put out recommendation. i just don't think we'll see booster shots at 8:00 a.m. on monday morning is the bottom line. >> okay. talk about -- you mentioned kids. talk about kids ages 5 to 11. pfizer's ceo says that data could be ready to submit by the end of the month and really little kids 6 months to 5 years old later. where does this put us on timing from the fda? i have heard things like this fall, et cetera, from top health officials. what's your sense? >> i'm highly motivated to get all these categories covered, as many people are. if they submit the data -- first of all, sending that signal they've got confidence in their data, two-month follow-up, is really good, hallie. >> okay. >> it tells us they know something we don't know. that's okay. fda usually can take three to four weeks to turn that around.

they're on a pressured timeline but not going to overlook their process. then we do need these advisory committees to meet. they'll meet quickly. we talked about dr. gottlieb saying before hall wean. i would put it hall wean to thanksgiving, and 5 to 11. under 5, you would expect to follow two to three months. that could be somewhere between december and february, based on the enrollment and the data. that's for pfizer. moderna is still behind that. and johnson & johnson is in trial, but it could be months before we see that data. >> dr. kavita patel, thank you. gabe gutierrez, thank you to you as well. leaving no celeb skeptic behind. their unlikely offer to rapper nicki minaj. charges coming down possibly any minute today, the trump investigation into the fbi

russia investigation. new details from the reporters who broke that story coming up. plus the former president and his allies not backing off the nation's top general. inside the white house as the current president stands by mark milley. t stands by mark milley ow progressive offers 24/7 protection, but we also bundle outdoor vehicles with home and auto to help people save more! [ laughs ] ♪♪ [ humming ] [ door creaks ] oh. [ soft music playing ] what are you all doing in my daydream? it's better than that presentation. a lot better. you know, whether it's a fraction or a decimal, it's still fun, you know? without my medication, my small tremors would be extreme. i was diagnosed with parkinson's. i had to retire from law enforcement. it was devastating. one of my medications is three thousand dollars per month. prescription drugs do not work if you cannot afford them. aarp is fighting for americans like larry,

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developing overnight, significant piece of news in the investigation looking into the origins of the russia investigation and former president trump. "the washington post" is reporting special counsel john durham is looking to the indictment of a lawyer, michael sussmann, is bracing for the possibility he will be charged with lying to the fbi in 2016 when he raised concerns about possible ties between a russian-based bank and a server at one of former president

donald trump's companies. it is always great to have you, especially on a day like today. lay it out for us, right? who is michael sussmann, how significant is it that durham may look for his indictment any day now is your reporting? >> reporter: good thing about this case is it's very confusing and complicated. >> awesome for tv, devlin. thank you. >> reporter: you have to go back to 2016. what happens is this lawyer, michael sussmann, who works at a law firm, very closely aligned with democrats, goes to the fbi with allegations that there may be some digital connection, some computer evidence connecting a russian bank to the trump organization. so, he brings that to a senior lawyer at the fbi and what durham has been investigating for some time, we're told, is whether the underlying data was somehow falsified or if sussmann, in bringing that information to the fbi, claimed not to be representing a client

when, in fact, he was essentially doing it on behalf of the clinton campaign. i will say, as someone who has covered a lot of false statements cases, this is a stranger sets of facts i've seen in even potential false statements case. there are things i don'tnd about the legal theory that's being pursued here. we're told that the deadline is coming. there's a statute of limitations here. we should see a decision, to go forward or cut bait. >> any prosecution, quote, would be baseless, unprecedented and unwarranted deviation from the apolitical and principled way that the department of justice is supposed to work, adding they're confident if mr. sussmann is charged he will prevail. no comment from the doj side, from durham, from the attorney general? >> right. the other thing to keep in mind,

just to emphasize how odd this is, durham set out to find wrongdoing at the fbi. if he brings this charge against sussmann, he will basically filing a charge that portrays the fbi not as the perpetrator of a crime but the victim of a crime. it shows you the strange directions that this special counsel investigation has gone in, as everyone argues about 2016 and the russia investigation. >> devlin barrett, great to have you and your reporting on the show this morning. please keep us posted. i know you said that could come any day now. appreciate it. after the break, congressman adam kinzinger, joining us live. there he is. does he agree with his fellow republicans that general mark milley should go? that's a preview, congressman. we'll see you in a minute. prev. we'll see you in a minute. i order my groceries online now.

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milley talking to his counterpart in china saying they are not going to attack and if they were he would warn them. >> this is more than just insurd ordination. >> incomprehensible and completely out of line. >> treacherous, dangerous and unconstitutional. he needs to answer questions about this because if true, he needs to be fired. >> former president trump chiming in, too, calling his own former joints of chief chair a nut job. talk about the white house response, pentagon response. we have seen defense officials coming out with a statement that was not a flatout denial, right, but looked to put context in this. >> reporter: no denial from the white house or pentagon that the calls in question actually took place. in fact, that's an entire part of their defense here, hallie, with the pentagon and department of defense, saying that the calls that general milley made

to his chinese counterpart would be regular communications with chiefs of defense across the world, including with china and russia. they go on to say his calls with the chinese and russians in january and february were in keeping with these duties and responsibilities, conveying reassurance in order to maintain strategic stability. but, of course, it's the contents of what occurred here that the white house and pentagon said they didn't want to comment on the specifics of this yet-to-be released book. the president offering a full-throated defense of general milley. jen psaki said the two have worked closely together over the last eight months and she praised his patriotism. where the two have not answered any questions is whether his behavior was fully appropriate in terms of circumventing chain of command. that's something the white house doesn't want to comment on any further yet. they want the process to play out a bit, given the fact that there will be that high-profile testimony from general milley at the end of the month.

in terms of that republican criticism you played, the white house is dismissing that quite quickly, saying it was some in the gop themselves who supported former president trump fomenting the insurrection that took place january 6th which, of course, is the catalyst for the events described in "peril" this book from bob woodward and robert costa. politically pushing back but defending their own four-star general coming directly from the commander in chief. hallie? >> monica alba live for us at the white house. thank you. adam kinzinger, republican party, member of the january 6th committee. thank you for coming back on the show. >> good to be with you. >> let me start where we left off here, with this whole firestorm about this new reporting from general milley. several of your republican colleagues want the president to fire him. white house not going to do that. in your view, does general

milley need to go? >> no. i think he needs to answer questions. i had a conversation probably an hour ago with a former senior official at the defense department that was confirming to me that, in fact, general mark esper had an open line of communications with china, that that was very important to do, and that, you know, to dispel any concerns out there. i think that's a good thing to have. if this was part of that effort, that's actually, i think, not a bad thing. >> so, it sounds -- i want to be clear here, congressman. you don't think milley should resign then. you just want to hear more about what actually went down, is that fair? >> i'm back. can you hear me? >> i sure can. i don't know if you heard me but i'll ask the question again. i want to be clear where you stand on this. it sounds like you're saying you don't want milley to resign. you don't think that's necessary, but would like to hear more from him about what went down. that fair? >> yeah. i want to get the answers to those questions. we need those answers. it's also important to

understand that it's not inappropriate for the united states of america to reassure a competitor or enemy we're got going to attack them, we don't have any escalation out of control, right? we definitely need those answers. when i talked to this person of what mark es pechlt r is thinking, this all started in october, we don't want a flash point. >> you're talking about secretary esper. did this person have anything to say about general milley? >> this was d.o.d. i don't know about that but they confirmed to me this dialogue was open. >> i'll move on but do you think some of your gop colleagues are looking to score a political point by calling for milley to resign? >> i think some are. a lot of us are ticked off about how afghanistan went down still. we need answers on that as well. i do think a leaked excerpt from a book without all sides being done, that's a big leap to jump to somebody needs to resign. we need to take a deep breath,

get the answers to what happened and then we can make decisions from there. >> okay. you mentioned afghanistan. and i know your thoughts on that, and the withdrawal, the exit from afghanistan. you've got "the new york times" out. now new reporting this morning that nearly 39,000 afghan refugees are still at military bases waiting to be resettled weeks after their escape, medical screenings slowing down the process. tell me about your level of comfort or satisfaction with the pace of resettlements and any insight you might have as a member of the foreign relations committee on updates and stats of americans who are still in afghanistan seeking to leave. >> in terms of pace, it's going to take a while. when you have a massive amount of limit people. we need to go through the backgrounds and make sure they are who they say they are. that takes time. it's much better to be in a

temporary holding facility for these folks than to be under the rule of the taliban at this moment. there are still americans that want out. whenever i hear the state department say they had 19 warnings to leave, some of these american citizens actually have people they love in afghanistan and so they couldn't necessarily get out until some of these siv applications were processed. i sent a letter to the state department to get exact details on how many sivs came out, long-term residents and citizens. we've yet to have those answers. i don't know why. but we need them. >> this, quote, unquote, justice for january 6th rally happening on saturday, happening around the capitol. the security fencing, as our viewers know, is back up around the capitol building. from the briefings and intelligence you've seen as a member of the january 6th committee and member of congress, what's your level of confidence that we will not see a repeat of what we saw in january on saturday? >> i'm pretty confident we won't see a repeat of occupying the capitol. i'm not confident we won't see violence.

i am confident law enforcement is more prepared. i think it's ironic that the rallying cries justice for january 6th. i think justice for january 6th would have been the impeachment and removal of donald trump, calling out of people that are responsible, which i'm committed to doing and lastly i think it's time we stop as a party or leaders accepting somehow these ideas of oath keepers, which is basically a militia that wants to overthrow the government, that that's okay. we actually have conversations and disagreements in congress. we don't do it by this overthrow the government that has seemed to spread so far. >> are you any closer on that committee to -- i know you've received a lot of documents -- to taking any actions as it relates to subpoenas against, for example, colleagues in congress or people who served in the trump administration? >> we certainly get closer every day. not necessarily what it means for who, we'll keep those

details quiet for the moment. we're getting information we need. we would like to get, obviously, a lot more information. we're trying to do this as quickly and efficiently as we can but also get all the answers. i wish i could give a lot more detail. just know that every day there are people working hard to find the truth. that's all we want, is the truth. even if people don't want the truth, the next generation of americans deserve it and i'm committed to get it. >> it sounds like the door is not shut on those subpoenas that we have talked about and other members of the committee suggest ed as well. i'm going to say the words debt ceiling and ask people not to turn off the tv. it's a very big deal. it's coming to a head soon. as you know, it is routine that, you know, in the past that you've roadwayed the nation's debt limit. mitch mcconnell said republicans will not vote raise it. committee for national federal budget said if we default it would stop social security payments, delay paychecks for federal workers, cause turmoil in the stock market and costs to

borrow money could go up. where are you on this? i know you voted against raising the limit in 2011. what's your stance and position now? >> back in 2011, that was part of a broader negotiation, leading to the budget control act. you cannot screw around with the debt limit. even if you shut down government, as bad as that is, that doesn't default america's debt like the debt limit does. basically the debt limit is let's pay the bill of the credit card we just got in the mail. that's what the debt limit is. you just cannot pay your credit card bill and say you're being fiscally responsible. at the same time, though, whole different conversation. the spending in this country is in a really bad place and we've got to get back to talking about that and having conversations about how do we -- in a bipartisan way really start to tackle this problem. >> so you'll vote to raise the debt limit this time around? >> i certainly won't let the country go into default, absolutely. >> do you think other republicans will join you in that effort? >> yeah. look, there's a lot of details

in how back and forth, you know, goes. i don't think anybody is going to let the united states of america go into default on its credit. but i've got to tell you, watching the sausage be made in d.c. will be probably pretty ugly the next few months. >> that is something we are -- we watch the sausage a lot here. congressman adam kinzinger, thank you very much. appreciate your time. next up, you know we're going inside the white house nicki minaj saga and her tweet had an set it all off. closer look at covid and pregnancy, as evidence grows they could be be a dangerous, even deadly combination without the protection of vaccines. critical piece of reporting you're not going to want to miss. porting you're not going to want to miss on the edge of a forest in norway, there were three things my family encouraged: kindness, honesty and hard work. over time, i've come to add a fourth: be curious. be curious about the world around us, and then go.

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growing evidence that covid can cause serious complications in pregnancy. american medical journal association shows pregnant women who get covid are 15 times more likely to die, 22 times more likely to have premature votes yet you have a big majority of women, 75%, who have made the decision not to get the shot. that's according to the cdc. nbc news krnt heidi pryzbyla joins us. >> reporter: evidence is mounting that covid can cause significant complications in pregnancy and behind every single one of those numbers are tragic stories, hallie. >> we had just started getting the room ready, and painted, and got all the clothes out. >> reporter: in november 2020, vanessa alderman was counting down the days to the birth of a

baby boy when she learned she had covid. >> i call it a bad sinus infection, cough and flu all at once. i thought this is a mild case. >> reporter: soon after getting sick at 22 weeks pregnant, vanessa went into preterm labor. her baby died. the result, doctors said a placenta abruption caused by covid. >> you get pregnant and have this goal and this dream. it was taken away. it was complete devastation. >> reporter: growing research points to the potentially devastating impact of covid on pregnancies. a study published last month by the journal of the american medical association found pregnant women with covid are 15 times more likely to die and 22 times more likely to have preterm births than those who are uninfected. and just last week, the state health department in mississippi announced it has identified 72 stillbirths among women with covid since the pandemic began, more than double the prepandemic rate. in vanessa's case she wanted to

get the vaccine while pregnant but it wasn't yet available to her. many pregnant women are making conscience decisions not to get vaccinated. many citing concerns for how the vaccine could affect their babies. >> i have not had the vaccine. >> reporter: stephanie is one of them. mom-to-be asked we not show her face out of fear for backlash for her decision to remain unvaccinated. >> i'm not anti-vax. i get the flu vaccines but this feels different to me. you spend your whole pregnancy doing everything you can to protect the baby. you can't change cat litter, can't eat lunch meat. injecting all these chemicals into your body is a little scary. >> reporter: object obstetricians suggest the best way to protect the unborn child is to get vaccinated. >> the answer to when should i get vaccinated is like yesterday. the protection for you and the baby is amazing. >> reporter: vanessa says her life is forever changed.

her mission now? to implore moms everywhere that even mild cases of covid can prove catastrophic. >> i'll never get over losing him, ever. just knowing his life might save someone else is my goal. >> reporter: hallie, dr. carter is not vanessa's doctor. she had just come off the labor and delivery ward and told me she is seeing way too many vanessas. this is a now issue we're seeing this upsurge among pregnant women. she says it's tragic. instead of having conversations with these women about what should be the happiest day of their lives, she's having end-of-life discussions with some of them, hallie. >> just horrific to think about, heidi pryzbyla. thank you for your reporting on this. we'll stay on top of this story right here on msnbc reports. coming up, you already know democrats prevailed in california's recall election.

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so, if you thought we would get through an entire show

talking about nicki minaj, his cousin, his friend and the friend's testicles and the white house, clearly, you would be woefully mistaken. there is a new twist in the whole super famous rapper spreads vaccine misinformation to millions story line. you know how it started. minaj before the met gala tweeted she wasn't going to go because of its vaccine requirement and is holding off on getting the shot herself until she had, quote, done enough research. then she shared that personal anecdote about how her now infamous cousin's friend in trinidad dealt with what she said was a strange side effect of the vaccine, swollen genitals, even though doctors say that's more likely to be caused by something else, like an infection. it plays out the last couple of weeks. then minaj tweets she's been invited to the white house. the biden administration knows how important celebrities and influencers can be to their vaccine campaign. remember benny drama and olivi

a. rodrigo. now she says minaj to talk to one of the doctors and answer questions she has about the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine. >> we wasted so much time yesterday this false claim. it is as far as we know at this point in time, there has been no such reported either side effect or adverse event. >> i want to bring in "washington post" white house reporter tyler pager. acknowledge that not everybody out there trusts or hangs on every word that the biden administration says or lives off the advice of dr. fauci. there have some people who look at influencers, who are obviously, you know, most times not as well informed as doctors who work in these fields. how does the biden administration feel, what are they talking about behind the scenes about what they do with skeptics when they themicrophon.

>> this is a focus of the biden administration from the start. they understand the importance of reaching out to celebrities and also local trusted people in the community. and so we have seen olivia rodrigo come to the white house, other sort of tiktok stars to reach out to younger americans. the white house has had calls with athletes and offered them doctors and medical experts to talk through their concerns with the vaccine. this has been a concerted effort by the white house since the start, because they understood a lot of people aren't looking to the white house for this type of information and celebrities have a huge microphone on social media and other platforms and they want to get out in front of those concerns to avoid the situation we have now where nicki minaj is seemingly spreading misinformation about the vaccine. >> what's interesting is that the white house said, yeah, we offered this call as we have done in other instances. who else are they offering these kinds of calls to? >> yeah, so there's a range of people, as we spoke about. olivia rodrigo, other tiktok celebrities.

that has been part of an effort to reach younger americans. the data shows younger americans are not as vaccinated as the rest of the country they brought some of those people to the white house. they also reached out to athletes. marshawn lynch is someone they had connected medical experts to. a wide range of celebrities across the spectrum to get to all angles of the problem which is ultimately that people are not getting vaccinated in the numbers the administration wants to see and this is part of the effort to reduce vaccine hesitancy and get people to get the shot. >> tyler, thank you very much for your reporting. appreciate it. >> 64-36, that's the number democrats are celebrating in california this week. governor gavin newsom's margin to defeat the recall effort there. here's what they're not celebrating. these numbers. 60-40. that's his margin with latino voters according to early nbc exit voting. a majority, but smaller than democrats want state-wide and smaller than the 75% of

california latino voters who supported biden in 2020. the 64% who backed newsom in 2018 and the 74% who voted for hillary clinton in 2016. let's say you don't trust early exit polls. let's say you think they're unreliable. imperial county, heavy latino, where it's 61-39. it's a county that one democratic strategist is calling a canary in the coal mine. with me now is senior politics reporter alex seitz-wald. it's so good to see you back on the show. good morning and thank you for being with us. explain this canary in the coal mine thing. what does it mean? >> in 2020, donald trump won a historic number of latinos that really surprised a lot of people. the question was, was that a fluke? you know, was it about the 2020 election, the pandemic, democrats couldn't do their usual field operations? was it trump and something unique about his personality, or was it just the unique latino populations where he did best

like cubans in south florida who tend to be hoar republicans. we have in california our first real-world test to understand that and there's evidence to put in the column that there's something bigger going on. a steady erosion among some latinos and their support for the democratic party. you mentioned newsom won latinos, we should say, but by a smaller margin than he did in 2018. and what stood out to me is latino voters in california looked a lot like white voters. they basically broke for and against the recall by the same margin. the gender gap was the same, and that's a much, much smaller level of support for newsom than we saw among black voters and among asian-american voters. >> talk about the gender gap here, because you write how latino women were more likely to side with newsom by 19 percentage points. white women more likely to back the governor by 16 points. what's at the root. >> we talk about the latino vote, but there's no latino vote. just like any big group in the

country, there's a lot of differences. the same forces, the same trends we have been talking about for years among polarization along gender lines, about working class voters moving away from democrats, rural voters moving away. that's happening among latinos too. so you have a lot of working class rural men, latino men, who tend to move more toward the republican party in calf cal. you have women just like among white women who are sticking with the democratic party. and this is what the strategist that i spoke to said, is for democrats to fix this problem, to address this canary in the coal mine, they have to get better at dialing into the differences and understanding the nuance in the latino community and not just using a one size fits all message. >> real quick, how do you respond to people who say, listen, this whole, you know, issue is overblown. it's a media narrative because they're looking at exit polls and not concrete data from the county. >> we should be careful.

we have to wait until we get more precinct level data but the trend lines are what we should be watching, not the individual data. we'll look at virginia in a couple months and the more elections we get, the more data we can put on the trend lines and start to flesh this out. >> alex seitz-wald, thank you very much. i recommend your piece on nbcnews.com. thanks to all of you for watching this hour of hallie jackson reports. you can find us on twitter, and we have been in live hearings the last couple days so we want to remind you, monday, big day for us here on this show. some shifts coming to msnbc as you all know. i'm moving to 3:00, set your dvrs, set your phone alarms, whatever you need to do to see you in the afternoon starting on monday, september 20th. the guy who currently holds down that slot so capably, ayman mohyeldin is getting his own show in primetime on the weekends. jose diaz-balart will be here at 10:00. lots of good stuff happening. a lot more good stuff coming up too with craig melvin right here.

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the prilosec otc two-week challenge is helping people love what they love again. just one pill a day. 24 hours. zero heartburn. because life starts when heartburn stops. take the challenge at prilosecotc dot com. ♪ when you hear 'cough cough sneeze sneeze' ♪ it's time for ♪ 'plop plop fizz fizz' ♪ alka seltzer plus cold relief, dissolves quickly... instantly ready to start working. so you can bounce back fast with alka-seltzer plus. and a good thursday morning to you. craig melvin here. we have a busy hour ahead, covering lots of ground, including a show of force on capitol hill that might give you a bit of deja vu. that big imposing fence around the capitol once again. it's back ahead of a planned rally on saturday. it's in support of those who were arrested