i'll see you again tomorrow. "way too early" is up next. senate leaders near an agreement to pull the nation from a brink of default, at least until december. minority leader mitch mcconnell has offered a shoreham-term solution for the debt ceiling. my question is what's the long-term solution? plus a federal judge has blocked the strict new abortion law out of texas. my question is, where does the law go from here. and new currency featuring familiar faces. the question is can you pay for the budget in quarters?

it's "way too early" for this. ♪♪ good morning and welcome to "way too early," the show that always pays its bills with loose change. i'm jonathan lemire on this thursday, october 7th. we'll start with the news. on capitol hill republican and democratic leaders appear to be edging toward a deal. minority leader mitch mcconnell has offered a short-term fix. nbc news chief courthouse correspondent has the details. >> reporter: they are expending a deal that will allow them to pay the bill for the next two months. democrats have been saying it's an effort that's bipartisan.

president biden accusing republicans of playing a dangerous game. >> it doesn't have to be this way. our republican friends need to stop playing russian roulette with this economy. >> reporter: but they have promised to spend trillions without gop support, so democrats should raise the debt ceiling on their own and their offer gives them more time to do it. >> i'm not going to support this craziness that president biden and his new woke left friends are trying to ram down the american people's votes. >> the new debt ceiling is over $28 trillion. if it's not raised, the u.s. will run out of cash and for the first time ever, default on its bills. >> we will likely experience a recession. millions of jobs would be lost and the pain would endure.

>> reporter: the impact would lead to a plunge in stockmarkets and a rise in mortgage rates. millions could stop receiving social security checks, military could go unpaid, and child care credits for parents could be delayed. >> this is usually a political process and it's about spending previously incurred under republican presidents, not president biden. let's take a listen to what some are taking? >> what's my recession? it's b.s. he's heartless. he could give a rip. he should stop playing games and get out of the way so the 50 democrats can avoid what would be an economic catastrophe. >> i think their play was make mitch take us as close to a debt

limit crisis as we can to see if the democrats fold, and when we didn't, they realized that a global economic meltdown led by a u.s. debt limit crisis was going to blow them up with everybody el. they pulled the plug, mitch folded, and now we've got time to do build back better. >> earlier in the day president biden took time. at a white house event the president criticized gop lawmakers for threatened to filibuster any suspension of the debt ceiling and leaned into the credibility of top leaders to emphasize this point. >> we expect the markets will react very, very negatively if we get into that type of situation with a default. >> an actual default would be devastating. day won would be bad, but the

cascading events could go to a bad economy. i don't know why anyone would take a chance like that. there is bad news from the biden administration this morning. the new poll suggesting the president has received his lowest rating since taking office. in a latest quinnipiac poll, 38% approve while 53% didn't. 60% say they disapprove of his standing in office. the president's numbers have fallen off a cliff somewhat in recent months as the administration juggled converging crises at home and abroad. his approval is down 12 points from a high-water mark from 50% in february. joining us now, congressional reporter for politico, nicholas wu. thanks so much for being with us. let's start with the polls and move to capitol hill. what are you hearing from people

you talk to and the polls and where biden's standing is and what he needs to do in order to get his numbers back up? >> well, jonathan, what we're hearing is really a sense of concern from a lot of democrats about these poll numbers. while, you know, this partisanship among republicans is to be expected as presidency goes on, it's that slide among independents that can be really concerned to a lot of political watchers, especially going into the midterm elections next year, and so as a lot of democrats see it, it makes it all the more urgent for the biden administration and democrats on capitol hill to push through these two pillars of his agenda, the infrastructure plan and his, you know, roughly $3.5 trillion social spending bill, and in doing so, as many democrats see it, this would be something to campaign on in the midterms, it would be a big win and something to take the narrative away from a lot of the crises they've had to deal with, afghanistan, the

resurgence of covid t pandemic, and so on. >> it does seem, though, that these daily headlines about the negotiations probably put a bit of a drag on his numbers as well. democrats frequently say, hey, we'll get there and as you point out have something to run on. they downplay this as sausage making, but, hey, people still see this and it gives a sort of sense of dysfunction in washington even though one party runs the white house and congress, which is not ideal either. we heard some democrats be sharply critical of the debt ceiling. give us a report on what some republicans are saying, whether they're on board, and what is this? is this like, look, congress has a long tradition of kicking the can down the road? is that what this is, or is it mitch mcconnell saying i'll give you enough time, until december, but it's still on you and you alone.

>> that's exactly right. many republicans are still very much opposed to raising the debt limit. senator lindsey graham put out a statement yesterday to that effect. what mcconnell has done, he's offered exactly that, by punching the debt krooel big two months. the interesting thing here is it will give mcconnell increased leverage in december when we'll have a bunch of other deadlines in congress comes due, most notably, government funding. so while democrats were able to unhitch deadline this past month with government funding and the debt limit, they'll be back together in december and this is something that will give mcconnell a lot more leverage. you know, as often happens in congress, the end of the year ends up being this pileup of deadlines, and sometimes leaders strike some sort of grand bargain, but who knows. we'll see what happens. >> just what we need right

before the holidays, more trauma about the debt ceiling. one more, nicholas. give us the latest on the democrats and their efforts to get biden's agenda passed into law. it was striking how critical senator sanders was of fellow democrat joe manchin about holding up the process. i know it brings criticism to senator kyrsten sinema as well, but it's more about the old ire, the senator from west virginia. >> it's exceptionally rare for colleagues to criticize each other among members of the same party. it's kind of the tradition of the place. but to have someone like senator sanders so directly call out senator manchin, i mean really speaks to the frustration we're seeing among democrats about the status of these negotiations over the social spending package and the infrastructure bill and the slow pace of progress on

either of those. the tricky thing now is going to be for democrats to try to figure out somewhere in the middle to bring down the price of the social spending package. manchin, of course, has said he can't want a $3.5 trillion package and biden has told democrats they'll probably settle around $2 trillion. what's going to go, what's going to say? they're going to have to make a lot of hard decisions on that in the coming weeks. >> nicholas wu, thank you. still ahead, the latest on the legal fight out of texas. plus an 18-year-old suspect is in custody after a school shooting in texas that left at least four people injured. what we're learning about a classroom fight that police say turned into gunfire. those stories and a check on the weather when we come right back.

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to halt enforcement of the restricted texas abortion law known as sb-8. the "associated press" reports that the 113-page opinion from u.s. district judge robert pittman who was appointed by president barack obama said lawmakers had a transitory scheme by leaving things in the hands of private citizens -- >> from the moment sb-8 has gone into effect women have been unlawfully prevented from exercising control over their lives in ways that are protected by the constitution.

it will sernd the matter to fifth circuit court. in a statement attorney general merrick garland called it, quote, a victory for american women in texas and for law. press secretary jen psaki added the fight has only just begun. an 18-year-old student, meanwhile, is facing charges after opening fire after a fight at his school in dallas. nbc correspondent sam brock has that story. >> reporter: the picture of horror at a texas high school, officers running across school grounds with long guns and students barricaded inside classrooms. >> it was like bam, bam, bam, and there were three shots. >> i'm feeling i'm going to have to go to school fearing i'm going to get shot. >> reporter: the calls coming in to arlington piece around 9:15 in the morning immediately sparking concerns of an active

shooter. the 18-year-old turned himself in but not before an hours-long manhunt ensued. >> this is not a random act of violence. >> reporter: he shot several people after an in-class altercation. four people injured including a 15-year-old boy fighting for his life after surgery and a 25-year-old man in good condition. heartstopping moments for paernlts, watching the situation unfold at a school with 1,700 students. >> i'm like, mama, where are you. >> not knowing if your kid is one who has been shot is the worst feeling. >> reporter: authorities warning parents to check their kids' social media accounts after finding some students posted inaccurate information and false threats. >> if they're putting out threats on their schools, they're going to be arrested and

prosecuted. >> reporter: questions mounting how simpkins brought a firearm to school in the first place. >> our agents won't sleep with our partners to figure out how he got to the school with this weapon. still ahead, with a possible short-term solution to the debt creeling in the works, will democrats finally be able to get infrastructure passed? we'll talk about that with congressman dan kilby in just a minute. we're back in a moment. y in jus minute we're back in a moment ks like a. ...hearing about it 24/7 is painful enough... i don't want to catch it. well, you can't catch shingles, but the virus that causes it may already be inside you. does that mean bill might have company? - stop. you know shingles can be prevented. shingles can be whaaaaat? yeah prevented. you can get vaccinated. oh, so... i guess it's just you, me and bill then. i'm making my appointment. bill's all yours... 50 years or older? get vaccinated for shingles today.

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the giants barely held off the dodgers in the regular season for the division title. both teams won over 105 grams. game one is tomorrow night in san francisco along with the other matchup between the braves and brewers. meanwhile the padres will be searching for a new manager. they filed him after his second season at the helm which saw the padres go from the lead to being eliminated from playoff contention with seven games to play. it marks san diego's tenth losing record in 11 seasons and this came after very high expectations. >> the pair of american league division series matchups begin today. lance mccullers will be on the mound for the houston astros and

lance lynn and the white sox. your red sox will be visiting the rays. oh, boy. in the latest of series of vaccine man dates, yahoo! sports says mlb policy will require all minor league players to be vaccinated before next season. mlb recently informed clubs that all clubs participating the arizona fall league must be vaccinated. like other major american sports, mlb likely cannot mandate vaccines for their own players without permission from the players union. as first reported by "the athletic," mlb requires everyone to get one dose before october 4th. this could be subject to change depending on negotiations for a

new collective bargaining agreement for this winter. time now for the weather. we're not ready for winter yet, but we're enjoying fall. bill karins, meteorologist bill karins is here. what does it look like out there today? >> we still have problems with rain. around alabama, huntsville, we had a flash flood emergency. this pesky storm is leaving its mark. then we have that tropical entity off the southeast coast which is going to be a problem. here's the two storms. there's the one in the midwest dragging rain through kentucky, indiana, near chicago once again and then occasionally thunderstorms all the way down even around pensacola. and then that little storm off of north carolina is going to be a problem through the weekend. so the flash flood watches will be expiring as we go throughout the day. still 13 million people included. the areas in maroon and red, that's where flash flood warnings are. one of those locations,

birmingham and alabama. the heaviest will be north carolina and north j. 1 to 2 inches is possible. everyone else will get hit-and-miss showers and storms. and through oklahoma and texas, still in the 90s. widespread throughout the lone star state. finally a beautiful day around new york, d.c., and philly after a cloudy extended period. today will be in the mid-70s with plenty of sunshine this afternoon. and then as we head into the weekend forecast, i was mentioning that rain lingers on friday in the carolinas. and then as we go through saturday, it slides up to areas like norfolk and richmond. d.c. can expect occasional rain on saturday. notice a good chunk is sunny and warm. unfortunately toward sunday, new york city gets involved in clouds and rain. jonathan, the trend is not our friend. that rain could be in the boston airy on monday.

of course, we've got the fall classic. the boston marathon is going to be on monday. runners are not liking that forecast. >> monday could be a special day. it is indeed patriots day. it could be game four at fenway. that could be a great day. i don't need to ask you for the forecast for today's game. they're in a dome, that lovely dome in st. petersburg, florida. coming up, a new white house analysis is touting success of the covid-19 vaccine requirements. we're going to dig into that in just a minute. before we go to break, we want to know, why are you awake? i'm your answers to waytooearly@msnbc.com or tweets me using the #jonlemire. we'll read your answers later in the show. nlemire. we'll read your answers later in the show i don't know,♪

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welcome back to "way too early." it's coming up on 5:30 on the east coast, 2:30 out west. i'm jonathan lemire. the city of los angeles approved one of the strictest covid-19 vaccine mandates in the nation it. require as shot for anyone age 12 or older before entering bars, gyms, restaurants, or other indoor facilities. that includes lakers games. the vote was 11-2, which is expected to take effect in early november. a negative covid test will be required within 72 hours. in new york city, commissioners

for both the nypd and fdny went on record to say they fully support vaccine mandates. it's currently 68% among its members. the fdny handled over 50,000 calls a day. at that time, nearly one in four members of the dpts were out sick. so far at least 16 members of the fdny have died due to covid-19. a new white house report is highlighting the possible effects of vaccine mandates ahead of a trip to illinois for president biden today. the president is expected to tap the success of the vaccine requirements in meetings with state and local leaders who have issued mandates of their own. according to the white house, mandates have increased vaccination rates by more than 20 percentage rates in me organizations. they have also reportedly helped cut the vaccination rate by one

third and the white house is also highlighting the positive effects of the vaccine requirements on the economy saying mandates could return up to 5 million workers to the labor force. joining us now is an msnbc news contributor. thanks for being here. let's start there. earlier in the show we talked about president biden's poll numbers and how they've shown signs of slippage in recent weeks. do we think these vaccine mandates which are, of course, though embraced by business leaders are very much opposed by some of the right. do we think they have anything to do with where biden is right now? >> yeah. the mandates, one of the messages from the biden administration today is linking them as you mentioned very closely to the economy. i think the biden administration from sources i've talked to know that the more people that get back to work, the more life returns to normal, the more they feel like they can go out not

just to go back to work but to be full participating members of society and realize that will help them moving forward. the economy has always been central to them coming out of this pandemic and recession. so they're very closely linking as you saw in the report. they're very closely linking the progress made in vaccinating americans through those requirements and the mandates through the economy. as you mention, they say it's going to get people back to work, get people back to school, make sure you're going to participate as a consumer, but those numbers are really striking. it's the first time they're pulling everything together to say the mandates work. we can look across the educational sector, the private sector, the health care sector. it was pointed out there, you know, the rates have increased. when they first rolled out in july, that first federal requirement, we all remember the backlash and the pushback from a number of organizations, but people lined up and got their

shots. back then it was something like 95 million americans who were unvaccinated. that's now dow to 67 million. so still a very, very long way to go, but they're pointing to the progress made, and that's why in chicago today, the president's meeting with not only public officials, state and local officials, he's meeting with the ceo of united airlines. they're going to help make the case. this is going to help bring the economy back. >> on afghanistan, i know you've recently spoken with two military veterans about the situation there. what did they have to say about the state of affairs. >> you know, they're following very closely what's been happening since the u.s. withdrawal was completed at the end of august. this is two congressmen who have been very outspoken about the u.s. withdrawal and have somewhat competing views on what should have happened.

congressman walz thinks leaving some behind would have helped to stabilize things. the biden administration, of course, disagreed. we've spoken about what we've seen, the chaotic pictures, the evacuation effort, and the tens of thousands afghans and siv applicants who helped the warrant nefrt the last 20 years who have been left behind. it's a disturbing people. there's a unanimous consensus on that. the taliban have not lived up to their process. they said as part of the u.s. withdrawal they would not attack forces, they did not. but they also said they would have an interim government that was reflective and inclusive of the afghan american people, that has not been true. they said they would allow women to continue to work and study under islamic law.

that has not been true. there's the hard-fought freedom to go to work, study freely, move freely, rolled back very slowly over time. the problem is with many foreign journalists gone and many of us no longer keeping the spotlight on them, this is happening behind closed doors and happening without a lot of attention. the question i get from a lots of people who are still there is when is the u.s. going to start to use some of that leverage it said it would have on the ground, financial leverage, diplomatic leverage. they want credibility and legitimacy. we haven't seen that yet. the people i've talked to are getting more and more worried. >> it's disheartened to watch the signs of progress be rolled back. quickly, i know the other thing you've been following is immigration policies. tell me how you found things have changed operationally from president trump to president biden. >> folks on the ground will tell

you they haven't changed that much. we've obviously seen a stark message when it comes to the border. they want to promote safe, orderly, human processing at the border, but a you saw recently at del rio with the influx of migrants, operationally especially under the pandemic, not much has changed. we're going to continue to follow it. >> amna amaz, thank you so much. still ahead, a look at the designs for the new u.s. quarter. "way too early" will be right back.

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totally different. the "squid game" is about to be a sensation on netflix. joe fryer has more. >> reporter: you'd be forgiven if you thought "squid game" wu a cooking show. you'd also be very wrong. it's about people in debt playing a bunch of children's games hoping to win millions of dollars. if they lose the game, they lose their lives. netflix said there's a very good chance it will be the biggest show ever. >> it has familiarized and brought a lot of attention to the koreans and korean culture in a very tangible way. >> reporter: it's also showing it's paying off. >> there's a lot of national content. why is that? >> that content is very authentic to local culture and does exceptionally well in its

home country. can actually travel really well around the world. >> reporter: netflix has made shows in 40 countries and 97% of u.s. subscribers have watched at least one show with subtitles. >> to watch these shows is like traveling around the world. you get to experience another culture from your living room. >> reporter: others are producing their own international shows putting globe on the map. meanwhile the u.s. mint has announced the first five designs in a so-called american women quartes program. it features contributions and trailblazing american women. among them, maya angelou, also

the first american woman to soar into space, dr. sally ride. still ahead, congressman dan kilby joins us to discuss the potential breakthrough on a deal to suspend the nation's debt deal. as we go to break a look at this day in history. years ago california voters recalled governor davis and elected arnold schwarzenegger. >> there's a total recall making arnold schwarzenegger the next governor of california. they voted an emphatic yes on removing gray davis from office. removing gray davis from office. and we need more time. so, we want kisqali. living longer is possible and proven with kisqali when taken with a nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitor in premenopausal women with hr+, her2- metastatic breast cancer. kisqali is a pill that's significantly more effective at delaying disease progression

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defense secretary lloyd austin is sounding the alarm on the possible effects of debt default. in a statement austin writes in part, quote, if the united states defaults, it would undermine the economic strength on which our national security

rests. it would also harm our service members and families because as secretary i would have no authority or ability to ensure that our service members, civilians, or contractors would be paid on time. many would be at risk. his warning was not the only. several other former defense secretaries issued a similar message yesterday, warning congress that it would be, quote, tragic to allow part an ship to deny people. joining us now, chief deputy whip of the house democratic congress, congressman dan kilby of michigan. congressman, thank you for being here, we always appreciate. some movement yesterday, what do you make of the offer and how do you see this playing out over

the next few steps? >> well, what it looks like is that mitch mcconnell blinked somewhat surprisingly. he was merging that he was willing to put all these consequences at risk, you know, the failure to meet our obligations, medicare reimbursements not being paid, service members not receiving their payments, their salaries. he was willing to do that in order to get at joe biden. he was trying to hurt the president. he's made it very clear that's his objective. but he blinked. and now we have until this december, apparently, to try to get this resolved again. it's really a cynical use of the power of the senate to prevent us from doing the most basic things in the name of politics, and so we buy a little time. the argument will be the same in december as it is right now. the hope is that we'll get a

longer term fix to this, but there's no guarantee that will be the case because if mitch mcconnell sees some political advantage in threatening the fiscal integrity of the united states, apparently he'll use that. >> apparently it's a distraction to eat up valuable time in oxygen for democrats, that appears to be mcconnell's play. i assume this gives you more time to find a reconciliation. let's hope it doesn't come to this, but what would be the rackfications and consequences if the nation does default? would our national security be in jeopardy? >> the national security would be at jeopardy and there would be economic risks. we would be pushed back into a recession. it wouldn't be because of a pandemic or a housing collapse we had back in 2007, 2008. it would be a recession engineered by the political calculations of a senate leader who cares more about hurting a

democrat is president than he does about the economic and physical well being of the american people. it would be an own goal to use the terrell from soccer. the idea that mitch mcconnell would do that while consistent with his history takes it to a new level that i think is cynical, i think. >> mcconnell is about power and politics. this is done with an eye toward next year's midterms. how are you right now feeling about your race and also democrats on the whole? how are you guys going to do? we know how tough it is to hold onto your party. >> we're still waiting in michigan for tin pen accident redistricting commission to finish their work. so i'll have to make that evaluation later. i think the most important

factor for democrats right now is not to think about the sort of daily analysis of the politics but keep our focus on getting our agenda enacted. if we can move some version, a bold version of the build back better act and this infrastructure bill through to the president's desk and spend the months ahead seeing it and working to make it real, to have it implemented, actually delivering for the american people, not delivering a message, but delivering real help, there's nothing quite as eloquent as a job, food on the table, as an economy that's moving again s moving again

erin posted this picture writing, traveling for work today and needed an early start. even my catea thinks it's early. weth actually do very well not . >> and writing, i have to take the hagrandkids to school today. their dad goes to work early. >> and elaine writes, thanks for keeping me informed. we also do baseball highlights. and jimmy writes, a hearty meal and bringing america up to date. life is good. happy to play my part. i hope there are left overs, because i'm getting hungry. comingm up on "morning joe senate minority bhip dick durbin joins the conversation and pete

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i know the media wants to distract from the biden administration's failed agenda by focusing on one day in january, use that one day to try and demean the -- the character and intentions of 74 million americans who believed we could be strong again and prosperous again and supported our administration in 2016 and 2020, but for our part, i truly believe we all ought to remain completely focused on the future. >> one day in january. that was former vice president mike pence downplaying the january th insurrecti threateni life. we bring in jeremy bash. good morning. thanks for being here. start with your reaction to what you heard from the former vice president. >> well, look, as congress tries to investigate the events around january 6th on a bipartisan basis, the former vice president, who himself was the object of the attack. i mean, people stormed the

capitol saying, "hang mike pence." he's talking as if he's talking at a hostage video. basically saying, oh, my attackers aren't terrible people. don't focus too much on them. he's obviously trying to get back into the good graces of the maga world, but, of course, he was the one who had to be hurriedly rushed out of the senate chamber because people were literally going to do him and other members of congress physical harm. the worst armed attack on the seat of democracy since the war of 1812 that left five dead, 140 members of law enforcement injured. we all heard the testimony from four uniformed law enforcement officers, some of whom have served our country in uniform in the military overseas testify about the methods and mechanisms by which this armed mob stormed the capitol, and i don't think the vice president or anybody should be downplaying the events of january 6th. >> mike pence's only family, of course, also in the capitol that

day and his comments come as he's trying to take his first steps back into the political world, eyeing his aides, candid about it, eyeing the 2024 presidential run and trying to balance the relationship with president trump. he spent four years basically being a loyal soldier for him and then it drew maga force anger for refusing to go along with the plan to overturn the election results. you mentioned congress' efforts to investigate that day, subpoenas issued for trump's inner circle, the mark meadows and steve bannons of the world and reports they're going to refuse to go along with that, they won't show up. tell us what you're hearing and if that happens what can congress do? >> well, i have to say that the team that the january 6th committee has assembled is world class. it's led by dave buckley, a former inspector general of the cia, former staff director of the house intelligence committee and someone who's a sworn law enforcement officer from his days investigating criminal

activity as the treasury department. a former u.s. attorney on the team. former senior investigators. they have the methods of investigation that they're going to pursue, and if that includes subpoenas for documents or for testimony, the people who received the subpoenas must comply, and if they don't, i expect congress to take them to court and to issue contempt against those individuals and force them to comply with this lawful investigation. there's no other way. if we don't have cooperation with law enforcement investigations we have the total unraveling of the rule of law. >> certainly since january 6th, jeremy, an increased focus on domestic terrorism, saying that's the nation's greatest threat right now. days since, that rally scheduled at the capitol a few weeks ago, turned into a dud. certainly a lot of political anger out there. i was in michigan with president biden just two days ago and the crowd, sort of a republican area where he was, and the crowds that lined the motorcade,

thousands of people, trump supporters, some of whom holding signs with rather inappropriate language about the president. and similar sign wes saw the capitol january 6th were there in howell, michigan. how concerned about politically-fueled violence like we saw that day? >> i think very concerned, jonathan. if you listen to the testimony of fbi director chris wray, the testimony of other senior law enforcement officials, they regard domestic terrorism, violent extremism from americans, as the most significant and consequential threat against our institutions, against our people, against our democracy. again, there's a fine line, because someone holding up a sign with inappropriate language about the president, whether it's cruel language or parody language, we live in a free-speech society and want to allow for that. allow for people to criticize government, petition the

government for redress of grievances. when it crosses into violence, what the january 6th mob did, the january 6th attack was an armed attack. it was an assault. it was a physical assault. then that's not free speech. that has to be pursued vigorously by law enforcement. >> jeremy bash, thank you so much. please, stick around for "morning joe." that's you for us on "way too early" on this thursday morning. "morning joe" starts right now. good morning and welcome to "morning joe." it's thursday, october 7th. joe is off today. with us we have white house reporter for the associated press jonathan lemire, and professor at the lyndon b. johnson school of public affairs at the university of texas, msnbc contributor victoria defrancesco soto. we have a lot of ground to cover this morning. covid cases continue to drop across the country as the white house credits mandates for increased vaccina