all right. that is going to do it for us tonight. i'll see you again tomorrow night. "way too early" is up next. new reporting on former president trump's reaction to seeing his supporters storm the capitol on january 6th. with congressional investigators digging in, the question is, did he really brag about the size of that crowd? plus, vaccination mandates get outlawed in texas. governor greg abbott has issued an executive order blocking vaccine requirements including for private businesses. the question is how will the biden administration respond? and paul mccartney sets the record straight about why the beatles broke up. now more than 50 years later, the question is what really happened to the fab four? it's "way too early" for this. ♪♪

good morning and welcome to "way too early," the show that's prepping for a hard day's night. i'm jonathan lemire on this tuesday, october 12th. we'll start with the news. almost a year after america led joe biden out of covid t president may have hit a wall, troubling scenes at the southern border and a delta variant surge. the president's ratings have tumbled from the low 50s in february to the high 30s in a recent quinnipiac poll. strategists are reporting a common trend to politico. they write in part, quote, reports from leading party operatives all point to biden needing to get a handle on the virus to claw his way out of the muddle. in a focus last week, pennsylvania democrats one after

another articulated the issue vexing top white house officials. all nine participants gave bide an c-minus grade or lower. it circled back to the pandemic and the many ways it continues to hinder normal life, souring their views on biden. to be clear, many of the setbacks from biden stem from the unvaccinated. president biden has attempted to counter these souring views by promoting his $3.5 trillion build back better plan and the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. but even if congress were able to push through the president's agenda, one strategist tells politico this. passing both bills won't be enough to significantly improve biden's standing without democrats first establishing they are the party responsible for defeating covid.

house lawmakers, meanwhile, are back in washington today to approve legislation that would lift the nation's borrowing limit. the senate voted on a short-term debt ceiling extension last week 1. 1 republicans broke ranks and voted with democrats to overcome the filibuster. the house is expected to move quickly so president biden can sign it into law this week. congress will have to revisit the issue in december. joining us now to kick things off, co-founder of "punchbowl news," jake sherman, an msnbc contributor. jake, thanks so much for joining. let's talk about the polling. what does your reporting tell you about inside and outside of the administration, democrats on capitol hill, those who work so closely with the white house. are they pushing the panic button? do they think that is indeed the key to turns these numbers around?

>> yeah, of course, jon, and congratulations on your red sox. we're hab that kyle schwarber, a washington national for five minutes contributed. let me say the following. it should be no surprise that pandemic that's lingered for 18 months or however long it's been is going sink a president's approval ratings, there's no question about that. we're also a long way from the last biggest piece of legislation, which was the american rescue pan that congress passed earlier this year. people have forgotten about that. we'll have to see if congress passes the build back better plan, if that's enough to build back biden's ratings. we'll see if one year from now they'll have forgotten about covid f they like this new

agenda the president passed, and he'll rebound. the reality is democrats are, according to history, going to lose the house of representatives. that is something i think democrats are wrestling with, and at least the honest ones are cognizant of. >> jake, we're going to talk about the debt ceiling in a second. let's go back to the biden agenda. what sort of time line are we looking at now? how is it going to play out over the next few weeks, months? what do you think? >> i think it's going to be months. i think it's going to be a november/december story. we're halfway through october and don't have the basic building blocks to get this done this month. i think the house is coming back in today for one day and then is leaving for another week. so i think that tells you all that you need to know. but, yes, i think this will be a november/december year-end situation, which is kind of what we've been saying all year long. >> tell us this, jake. now that it's going to be

addressed, do we think that will be part of the -- when we have to deal with this again in december, will that be part of the reconciliation bill? what's their approach going to be? >> it should be, according to a lot of democrats because that's the easiest way to do it without having to involve mitch mcconnell, but democrats have said they don't want to do that. we report this morning in our upcoming addition that there are people who believe that the debt ceiling will last until mid-december or early january, so that would be kind of a horse of a different color, so to speak, when i would imagine that it would all get wrapped up together in december, no matter what, but at least there would be breathing room come the end of the year. >> jake sherman of the "punchbowl news," red sox fans are appreciative of kyle sh wash jeer governor greg abbott is preventing any entity including private businesses from requiring covid vaccinations on employees or customers. in a tweet abbott writes, quote, the covid-19 vaccine is safe,

effective, and our best defense against the virus but should always be voluntary and never forced. he rebuked the biden administration for, in his words, bullying people into getting vaccines or vaccine passports. he also issued executive orders over the summer banning local governments and school districts from requiring either masks or vaccinations, issuing 1,000 dollar fines to those who fail to combine. in the fight against covid-19, drugmaker merck is officially seeking emergency use authorization for a pill to prevent covid hospitalizations and death. the new medication is being called a ghim-changer by experts. it's the first of its kind and could soon be made available to high-risk people who contract the virus. nbc news correspondent miguel almaguer has the latest. >> reporter: now officially

seeking emergency use authorization from the fda, it could be prescribed to americans by the end of this year, with the company saying its pill cuts hospitalizations and death in half for unvaccinated patients with early symptoms. the five-day regimen of 40 pills costs an estimated $700 a patient, similar to tamiflu n that it's taken at home during the early on set of symptoms for adults with mild to moderate cases of covid, at high risk for severe disease, or hospitalization. >> while this is extent news, that's still 50%. that means those who get infect ready still going to get very sick with covid-19. it's not a miracle. >> reporter: if authorized, merck's milestone would be a game-changer but not a substitute for vaccinations. the u.s. government has ordered enough pilled for 1.7 americans,

but 67 million who are eligible have yet to be vaccinated. still, there are signs of progress on the front lines. new infections are down 53%. daily deaths and hospitalizations are also dropping. >> i think we really can start to spike the football as we emerge into the spring, but we should stay vigilant until then, continue with the precautions we have so we do not have any risk of a fifth such. >> reporter: amid more signs of normalcy like the boston marathon, authorities have also said it's safe for most children to trick or treat this halloween. more steps forward in a pandemic that has offered so many societybacks. still ahead, after a week of major disruptions, southwest canceled even more flights yesterday. plus, james bond returns to theaters, but the box office is shaken, not stirred, by daniel

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the california department of justice is now reviewing the oil spill that occurred last week. it's forced beaches to close. the state attorney general called the spill an environmental disaster with far-reaching effects for the beaches and the community. they found no oil toxins in the water. the attorney general is working to assess whether the emergency could have been prevented. chaos for southwest after they canceled more than a thousand flight this weekend leaving thousands stranded. nbc news sam brock has the latest.

>> reporter: a full-fledged travel nightmare. >> we've been worrying about it for the past 24 hours. >> reporter: that's now at the end of day four. >> i was definitely hoping that my flight wasn't being canceled because i've got to get back to work. >> reporter: more than 40% of all southwest flights delayed or canceled, impacting tens of thousands of passengers. over the weekend at denver airport, the spillover to the second floor. similar scenes across the country from reno to nashville to dallas. >> they canceled twice. twice. twice they canceled. >> reporter: southwest apologized to customers saying the numerous cancellations were primarily created by weather and other constraints which left aircraft out of preplanned positions, pushing back that air traffic control staffing was the problem. they say no shortages have been reported since friday.

industry experts believe there are several contributing factors. is it possible that some members of southwest and its pilots decided to sit this out because of the covid vaccine? >> there's something definitely aside from just atc and weather delays going on here. the unions have said no. the pilots are saying no. but the timing is strange very the head of the southwest pilot association responded to speculation that the recent erroll mandate is contributing to the chaos. >> how do you know is that's not related to what's happened in the last four days? >> because our sick rates are right in line with where they were this summer, so it is absolutely completely false to say that our pilots are -- that this is affecting the pilots in any way. the two are completely mutually exclusive. >> mandates right now with the state and federal levels are creating tension. in seattle the police department has until october 18th to comply with hundreds of officers still unvaccinated. >> they're using bully tactics

to force their employees to get this, and that's what's led to this disconnect. still ahead, you've been waiting for it. major league baseball is heating up with the scrappy underdogs leading the championship series. sports in just a minute. g the c. sports in just a minute. need to worry. the pre-treaters are built in. tide pods dissolve even when the water is freezing. nice! if it's got to be clean, it's got to be tide. is struggling to manage your type 2 diabetes knocking you out of your zone? lowering your a1c with once-weekly ozempic® can help you get back in it. oh, oh, oh, ozempic®! my zone... lowering my a1c, cv risk, and losing some weight... now, back to the game! ozempic® is proven to lower a1c. most people who took ozempic® reached an a1c under 7 and maintained it.

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where our fields, inside and out, are always growing. and where the fun is just getting started. this is iowa. so, when are you coming to see us? ♪♪ on an 0-1 pitch, fernandez moves one to left center field. here comes santana. the rox in the championship series. >> there you go. kike hernandez drives in the driving run to send the old town team to the american championship series with a 6-5 victorier of the 100-win tampa bay rays. devers, a bad, bad man. they put boston in front, 5-0,

before tampa came back and gave me a heart attack. the red sox gain game four since a little series you might remember as the 2004 alcs against the new york yankees. boston will face the other between astros and white sox. those teams get an extra day of rest with game 4 in chicago postponed because of rain and rescheduled. that will be this afternoon now. houston leads that series, 2-1. to los angeles where the san francisco giants take the edge in their national division series against the dodgers. san francisco's evan longoria helps put the defending champs on the brink of elimination with a solo home run in the fifth. max scherzer gave a brilliant performance on the mound but received no support from the l.a. offense. game four is tonight at dodger stadium. and in los angeles, peterson

launched a three-run hit in the fifth. they gives them a trip to the ncls. turning to week five in the nfl and the ravens hosting the colts in "monday night football." ravens appeared to be down for the count after lamar jackson fumbled near the goal line. after that costly turnover, the ravens scored a touchdown on each of their final four possessions, jackson racking up a career-high 442 passing yards and 4 touchdowns while accounting for 499 yards of their 500 yards. they come back to beat indianapolis, 31-25 in overtime. great game. my attention was obviously on baseball, bill karins. what does the forecast look like

today? give us a sense of the weather across the country. >> we're watching a lot of dramatic weather, severe weather over the weekend. in the east coast, it's felt like september since october began to say the least. this week is going to be no different. all our attention is in the middle of the country and a significant winter storm heading to the west. the ski lovers are like, all right, bring it on, this is on time. this is on schedule. this first snowstorm is going to be in the northern rockies. this will not be in denver. they think they have a chance for snow toward the end of the week, but a lot of the heavier snows will be in wyoming, montana, a little bit in utah too. mostly the areas that you'd expect will be getting heavier snows there. cap per to sheridan, you have the best chance of getting up to a foot of snow. billings, a little less, 3 to 6 inches. then tonight as the storm heads into the plains, it's that time of year. we did have some significant todays over the weekend.

we do think we're going to get large hail and isolated tornadoes later on tonight in kansas and oklahoma. about 5 million people are at risk. this will be a late evening convenient. in oklahoma city, wichita, kansas, most people will be asleep when these storms roll through. we're expecting heavy rain. we could have some localized flooding, but the story also is these warm temperatures. it was pretty warm for the boston marathon. it was very warm for the chicago marathon this past weekend. 71 today. 71 in boston. 70s in d.c. humidity's still a little high. it's not like it changes tomorrow. d.c., 80, boston and new york, 85. everyone on the east coast kind of forgets what it's supposed to be like this time of year. you're supposed to have chilly nights. i'm still picking tomatoes in my

garden. it's a little ridiculous. >> i'm ready for the fall. thank you for the forecast. still ahead, we're learning new details about what president trump was doing on january 6th while insurrectionists were invading the capitol. before we go to break, why are you awake? i'm your answers to waytooearly@msnbc.com or tweet me @jonlemire or #waytooearly. we'll read our favorite answers later in the show. your favorits later in the show. ♪ ♪ ♪ this is...

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welcome back to "way too early." it's coming up on 5:30 on the east coast, 2:30 out west. you're up late. i'm jonathan lemire. we're learning new details about what was happening behind the scenes at the white house on january 6th. in his new book, abc news chief washington correspondent jonathan karl describes how president trump remained out of sight, watching television in the white house private dining room while insurrectionists stormed the capitol. they called. mccarthy said, quote, i just got evacuated from the capitol. there were shots fired right off the house floor. you need to make this stop. according to karl's sources, he liked what he saw, boasted about the size of the crowd and argued with aides who wanted him to tell the supporters to stop rioting. trump finally acquiesced two

hours after the riot started. he posted on twitter asking his supporters to go home but also praised them. according to karl, an aide who was there according to the video said the message had to be taped several times. in earlier tapings, trump failed to tell them to leave the capitol. whistle-blowers coming forward accusing the leadership of not properly responded to the january 6th riot. nbc's hallie jackson has that story. >> reporter: new fallout in an explosive letter from a police officer, responsible for the single greatest intelligence failure in the history of the u.s. capitol police. a law enforcement tells nbc news they were focused on

congressional leadership. pittman with lester back in april. >> every day i think about the well being of the officers. >> reporter: capitol police say although there's more work to do, many of the problems described in the letter have been addressed and they're committed to learning from prior mistakes. >> it's all the more reason we continue to see them pursue the ground truth of what happened. >> reporter: it comes as the former president rallying in iowa hints at another run. >> we're using the same slogan, make mark great. >> reporter: and clings to the lie that the election was stolen even though it was not. >> i never conceded, never. >> reporter: but state after state where the election was close, conducted audits to detect the vote totals, georgia even counted three times with all of it confirming again that joe biden won. still, demonstrating mr. trump's hold on this party, this new dodge from a top gop leader.

>> are you saying the election was stolen? >> what i'm saying. >> do you think the election was stolen? >> it's the states which did not follow the laws set. >> our thanks to hallie jackson. and joining us now msnbc contributor juanita tolliver. great to see you. we have known for some time president trump obviously didn't react with much haste to tell his supporters to stop rioting at the capitol. we have these details in jonathan karl's new book. how significant do you think they are as the nation still comes to grips with what happened that day and as the select committee moves forward with this investigation? >> look, i think the whistle-blower has come through with some critical damaging information about the capitol police because not only was it about misuse of intelligence capitol police had before the detail about how bad things could get on january 6th but

it's the chief potentially lying congress in their testimony that is another big weight that i think the select committee is absolutely going to have to take up and add on top of all of their other investigations surrounding the attack because, you're right, jonathan. america is still coming to terms with this. 60% of the country recognizes this as a terror attack. it's about getting to the truth and making sure it never happens again. when capitol police say they've addressed the issue, they need to make sure that it never happens again. >> on january 6th with that select committee, the biden administration has sort of broke within precedent here and they're not going to honor president trump's request for executive privilege in terms of documents related to the insurrection, which could lead to interesting consequences down the road. january 6th, that's a similar event. what's your sense, though, as to how president trump and his allies are going to respond to this white house's decision?

>> look, they're going to fight tooth and nail like they fight every other subpoena. think back to first subpoena trial trump faced and witnesses fighting that, and that's going to be the same playbook they're using, right? trump knows his allies are going to listen to him. that's why he has steve bannon refusing to cooperate at this point, and you can expect those court battle ts, i think, that are going to potentially delay the select committee. but what i appreciate about the select committee is chairman thompson has made it explicitly clear he's going to use every tool available to him to make sure the witnesses are compelled to cooperate because this is not something that can be dismissed. this is something that the american public not only deserves the truth sanctity requires it. i expect them to keep probing. and they need to recognize

january 6th was not only unprecedented but extremely damaging to our country. the quote was it's in the best interest of the u.s. they say do what you need to do to make sure this gets out to the public because when this reporting about the public shows trump sat back and watched this unfold on tv for hours and did nothing, got the calls from republicans an did nothing and recorded multiple messages and finally told the insurrectionists he loved them thshs is all critical in getting more intel, more information about who was talking to trooper, what was he doing, and why was he waiting and watching the attack. >> juanita, we talked earlier about the poll that showed biden's numbers go down. there were a few of those actually. i want to get your take on a different poll, that the american public doesn't seem to know what's in the biden agenda, that there are some real points,

a recognition they haven't done a great job selling it, telling people, hey, what's in it. things that americans like. and when they're polled independently, people approve of. what's your suns that the democrats will get this done? maybe it's weeks or months ahead, but they'll get it done. how will they be able to sell this and give the party the political win it needs going into the midterms? >> look. i think that's absolutely right, jonathan. democrats are confident they'll get this across the finish line. that's why we see biden already out in public talking about the tangible impacts, right? he was in michigan talking about the benefits of paid family leave and benefits of child care. we know that that resonates, right? i feel like democrats are so confident coming into this effort because they ran on this platform in 2020, so they took it a little bit for granted that they knew what was in it since they voted for it. now it's a reminder.

remind people how yo are tangibleably impacting people's lives which is controlling the white house and congress so people can feel that transition, feel how you're fighting for them, and take that energy into the fold. this is a critical public education thing. we talk about enumerating all the benefits, emphasizing the differences they'll see in their own lives, aed some that's what democrats are going to continue to do in the weeks not only to negotiate this but in the midterms leading up to 2024. >> it's going to take a far more aggressive sales campaign. juanita tolliver, thanks so much for being here. still ahead, the totally different fuel source powering the prince's ride. there it is. "way too early" back in a minute. ay too early" back in a minute

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the boston marathon is here. >> time for something different. runners are celebrating the success of the boston marathon after it was twice delayed due to the pandemic. the 125th race around the city was smaller than usual with 18,000 in-person athletes while some 30,000 participated virtually. two from kenya came in first in the men's and women's face. deb haaland was recognized as an amateur runner and ran for the indigenous. in the latest installment in the bond series, "no time to die," it had a modest opening weekend raking $50 million domestically. while that was in line with

expectations, they lagged behind. the film was delayed for over a year by the pandemic and research shows americans are still hesitant to go to the theater as the virus continues. internag nalley it had a more robust opening, earning $250 million. prince charles announced that his car now runs on white wine and cheese? delicious. the prince said in an interview with the bbc he had the engineers reconfigure his car's fuel source to bioethanol made from wine and whey from cheese back in 2008. he has been driving that car gifted by queen elizabeth on his 25th birth day for over 50 years. he wanted to make it environmentally safe and says it smells great too. in a recent interview with

bbc, paul mccartney said john lennon instituted the breakup. he walked in and said i'm leaving and mccartney was left to pick up the pieces. he called that time the most difficult time of his period. according to mccartney, the beetle's new manager wanted to tie up loose ends. mccartneynded up suing his bandmates in order to keep their music out of clients' hands. the full interview will be broadcast on bbc radio on october 23rd. still ahead, fallout over revelations of a step-by-step plan using loopholes to overturn the presidential election. "way too early" will be right back. oo early" will be right back 's got his moves back. an alternative to pain pills voltaren is the first full prescription strength gel for powerful arthritis pain relief... voltaren the joy of movement

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the conservative think tank is defending its employee after

he provided step-by-step instructions on how he believes president trump and mike pence could overturn the 2020 election. the group released a statement yesterday defending eastman and slamming many reports saying, quote, claire month institute senior fellow john eastman, acting as counsel to the president of the united states at a critical stage during the 2020 elections in december 2020 and january 2021 offered legal advice that has since been maliciously misrepresented and distorted. he did not ask the vice president who was presiding over the joint election. he advised the vice president to accede, request state legislators to pause the proceedings for stoechb ten days to give time for the state legislators to assess whether

the acknowledged legal conduct had affected the results of the election. okay. but the "washington post" writes, the defense is among the most carefully worded straw man arguments in modern american history. essentially the statement isn't disputing eastman provided a ready-made procedure for trump and pence to get it overturned. he clearly and unam big usually did so. he didn't say he should overturn it himself. joining me now betsy woodruff swan. welcome to the show. what's the reaction been -- this has come to light in the last couple of weeks, some really good reporting about eastman's plan. what have you been hearing in terms of a reaction to eastman's scheme and the defense we jufd read provided by the organization that employs him? >> there's, of course, a ton of interest on the select committee and the legal side of how president trump and his allies

tried to find a way to overturn the results of the january 6th election. we've gotten lots and lots of pieces of that particular puzzle in the recent months, and perhaps it's one of the narrative threads of january 6th that we have the most visibility into in large part because so much of what has happened in those conversations was put down in writing. with very jeffrey clark's memo, a trump senior doj official who proposed sending out misinformation to multiple states claiming that the fbi had found evidence of voter fraud when it hadn't. that memo he proposed sending, we've got it in writing. it's now become a public document we also have notes that a different doj senior official took during a phone call with trump where trump talked about his efforts to try to reverse the election results in very shocking terms.

so it makes sense, of course, that now eastman's employer is trying to defend him with this argument that's deeply unpersuasive and eastman has sort of become a persistent piece of conversation regarding what happened on january 6th. this particular thread stands in sharp contrast to many of the other pieces that were moving that day. we have much less information about the organization about the stop the steal rallies, the content of the phone calls between lawmakers and president trump during the january 6th attack, and about exactly what was going on at the defense department. it highlights the extent to how much we've learned and how this played out. >> president trump has said, of course, he'll invoke executive privilege over the kap riot probe. what happens next? what measures do the committee have to compel them to testify? what are the next steps here? how do you see this all playing out? >> whoo might happen next for

trump if he followed through on his threats is he could sue and ask a federal judge to block the national archives from turning over documents that the biden administration says the archives can give to archive to give to . that lawsuit would be tough. trump signals he's going to bring it. we'll keep an eye out a week or two. as far as this question of witnesses who have yet to appear before the committee to testify, this week is the deadline for those four officials to testify to the select committee if that deadline passes without their testimony then the committee gets to think about what type of mechanism they may be to you. of course, they could sue, that could take years. what they talked about more would be spicier is the idea of

trying to use criminal charges to pressure these men into testifying, the house can put together what's called a criminal referral, an argument that these men broken the law if they don't testify this week. the house can send the criminal referral in the justice department and doj can decide whether or not to charge these men with contemptive congress. >> betsy woodruff swan. earlier in the show, we asked all of you. why are you awake? susan writes i am up way too early because i am taking the

lsat. good luck. hope that goes well. >> maya says this photo. that's gorgeous. and jeffery e-mails he was up early to catch bill karen's forecast. you know about 80% of our tweets and e-mails are about the forecast. up next, a look at axios one big thing. up next, we'll hear from adam schiff. plus, terry mcauliffe will join the conversation. "morning joe" is just a few minutes away. ning joe" is just minutes away before discovering nexium 24hr to treat her frequent heartburn... claire could only imagine enjoying chocolate cake. now, she can have her cake and eat it too.

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good morning, what's axios one big thing today? >> good morning. this week it shows that essentially surveys expectations and the trust in president biden is plummeting as expectations of returning to the prepandemic life continue to fall. cliff young says he's essentially losing the expectation game handling the pandemic is his central rating. june 36% of those people said they expect to return to prepandemic within six months and polling that now and recently dropped to 13%.

it shows that essentially his overall approval rating is tied to the pandemic and how people across the country is fairing him right now. he's not doing well. not just with republicans but democrats and independence as well. >> there are some hopes for signs of covid, cases are starting to decline and kids can be vaccinated within a months and booster shots become available. the approach of winter and flu season is a real concern. the restaurant industry is trying to bounce back. you guys have found that customers approaching a challenge to a recovery. what do you mean by that? >> yes, so my colleague dug into this. essentially i mean the restaurants and bars and industry during the pandemic have really been struggling and they still are. the key exists hiring talents

and service workers. it looks like one million jobs are not being filled in the restaurant industry which is huge. customers are lashing out a lot of the time due to vaccine mandates and mask mandates and it's really prompting a lot of service workers to quit. they're fed up and not doing this. that's aggravating and already really tense situation for the industry. so, i mean some people are going to prison and there is been fines and a lot of violence, just been a difficult time. normally the customers always right but sometimes in these cases they're not. >> on this, vaccine and mask mandates are leading to sharp reactions and nasty reviews on yelp. we should not down play because a lot of business relies on yelp

to get business in the door. >> yes, rather than having indoor vaccine mandates and we do have mask mandates right now, the vaccine portion of this has been an issue unlike places like new york and other cities and where restaurants do have to take it upon themselves to require these things. a lot of customers are going on and writing really nasty yelp review. some of these are not people attending the restaurant. that's something yelp trying to put back again. it's really hurting restaurants and as we just talked about when you are having a lot of these issues with service workers who are quitting over aggravated

customers and having these customers not going to to these restaurants but going on and writing terrible reviews is really hurting. restaurants really struggling to get back on their feet. viewers if you can write good reviews to restaurants that you attend. just do. >> alayna trene, thank you so much for all of that. >> "morning joe" starts right now. >> biden was asked about a short term deal to obvert economics, in response he crossed his finger, although i thought he was going for a different hand