the aftereffects are flu-like symptoms so they were legitimately sick. there's still a lot of back and forth and a lot of resistance among firefighters, garrett. >> kathy park, thank you. and thank you for being with us this hour. chuck will be back tomorrow with more "meet the press daily." tune in to our "meet the press" election night special tomorrow night hosted by chuck and kristen welker at 9:00 eastern streaming on nbc news now. msnbc coverage conditions with chris jansing live in virginia right now. good to be with you. i'm chris jansing. hello on an extraordinarily busy day of news, from abortion rights at the supreme court to president biden at a climate summit in scotland. but we begin here at the beautiful boat house in richmond, virginia, where we've come today because it's the eve of a cliffhanger election and the outcome here will have

reverberations across the country as we head into the 2022 midterms. it's a rapidly intensifying race for governor that's so much closer than anyone predicted between former virginia governor democrat terry mcauliffe and republican newcomer glenn youngkin. right now the average of a slew of polls shows this contest is within the margin of error. youngkin has brought the case to this point emphasizing education. his opponent says youngkin is stoking culture wars. youngkin has also worked to pull off a pretty difficult balancing act, wooing trump voters while keeping the former president somewhat at arm's length. >> my view that parents have a fundamental right to make decisions about their kids' education. he's for government control. i'm for individual freedom and liberty and i'm for parents' rights with their kids. >> reporter: would you rally with donald trump if he came to virginia? >> well, he's not coming and in fact we're campaigning as virginians in virginia, with

virginians. >> meantime mcauliffe's strategy has been equally clear, attempt to nationalize this race and tie youngkin has much as you can to donald trump. >> he's created hatred and division just like donald trump. and that's why donald trump, his final campaign is going to be for glenn youngkin here in virginia. we don't want trump, we don't want youngkin, we don't want the hatred and division. >> that brings us to the critical question. exactly whose strategy is working? of course we'll find out when polls close tomorrow night and the results could tell us a lot about how both parties will campaign next year and what kind of political environment they'll face. now, for republicans, a win would be an earthquake in a former gop bastion that's got to the democrats in a 15-year rising blue tide of races for national office. democrats counter this is a race for governor and the party that just won the white house has always lost the virginia governor's race the next year, with one exception, terry

mcauliffe in 2013, the year after president obama was reelected. but will president biden be a drag on mcauliffe with low poll numbers? the winning side will point to a victory as a sign of things to come. joining me from the big board in new york -- oh, we have joe manchin coming, he's going to talk about where he is on negotiations. let's go live to capitol hill. >> and, uh, i've heard a lot of the mischaracterizations of my positions. i would like to attempt to clear up confusion on where i stand on the legislation that's working its way through congress. in all my years of public service, and i've been around for a long time, i've never seen anything like this. the president of the united states has addressed the house democratic caucus twice recently to urge action on the bipartisan

infrastructure bill, sometimes referred to as the bif bill. last week the speaker urged, speaker pelosi urged the importance of voting and passing the bif bill before the president took the world stage overseas and still no action. in my view this is not how the united states congress should operate or in my view has operated in the past. the political games have to stop. twice now, the house has balked at the opportunity to send the bif legislation to the president. as you've heard, there are some house democrats who say they can't support this infrastructure package until they get my commitment on the reconciliation legislation. it is time to vote on the bif bill, up or down and then go home and explain to your constituents the decision you made. and i've always said, if i can't go home and explain it, i can't vote for it, and if i can, i will. i've worked in good faith for three months, for the past three months, with president biden, leader schumer, speaker pelosi,

on my colleagues on the reconciliation bill and i will continue to do so for the sake of the country, the house should vote and pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill. holding this bill hostage is not going to work in getting my support for the reconciliation bill. throughout the last three months i've been straightforward about my concerns and i will not support a reconciliation package that expands social programs and irresponsibly adds to our $29 trillion in national debt that no one seems to really care about or even talk about. nor will i support a package that risks hurting american families suffering from historic inflation. simply put, i will not support a bill that is this consequential without thoroughly understanding the impact that it will have on our national debt, our economy, and most importantly, all of our american people. every elected representative needs to know what they are voting for and the impact it has, not only on their

constituents, but the empire country. that is why we must allow time for complete transparency and analysis on the impact of changes to our tax code and energy and climate policies to ensure that our country is well-positioned to remain the superpower of the world, while we inspire the rest of the world towards a cleaner environment. this all can be done. i for one won't support a multitrillion dollar bill without greater clarity about why congress chooses to ignore the serious effects of inflation and debt that have on our economy and existing government programs. for example, how can i in good conscience vote for a bill that proposes massive expansion to social programs when vital programs like social security and medicare face insolvency and benefits could start being reduced as soon as 2026 in medicare and 2033 in social security? how does that make sense? i don't think it does.

meanwhile, elected leaders continue to ignore exploding inflation that our national debt continues to grow and interest payments on the debt will start to rapidly increase when the fed has to start raising interest rates to try to slow down this runaway inflation. with the factors in mind, all these factors i've spoken with, i've worked in good faith for months with all my colleagues to find a middle ground on a fiscally, and i repeat that, a fiscally responsible piece of legislation that fixes the flaws of the 2017 trump tax bill that i thought was weighted far, far too far for the high end earners. and the needs of the american families and children. however, as more of the real details outline the basic framework are released, what i see are shell games, budget gimmicks that make the real cost of the so-called $1.75 trillion bill estimated to be elements twice that amount if the

full-time is run out, if you extended it permanently. and that we haven't even spoken about. this is a recipe for economic crisis. none of us should ever mis represent to the american people what the real cost of legislation is. i've worked hard to find a path to compromise. it's obvious compromise is not good enough for a lot of my colleagues in congress. it's all or nothing. and their position doesn't seem to change unless we agree to everything. enough is enough. it's time our elected leaders in washington, all of us, stop playing games with the needs of the american people in holding a critical infrastructure bill hostage. while there is opportunity in the reconciliation bill that we can all agree on. and we've been talking about this for months. again, to be clear, i will not support the reconciliation legislation without knowing how the bill will impact our debt and our economy and our country. we won't know that until we work through the text. for the sake of our country,

again, i am urging all of my colleagues in the house to vote and pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill. it's bipartisan. 69 votes. we worked on that for many, many months. as i've said before, holding that bill hostage is not going to work to get my support of what you want. it's what we should all agree on and work through the process. i'm open to supporting a final bill that helps move our country forward. but i am equally open to voting against a bill that hurts our country. and i've been very clear about that also. and most importantly, hurts every american. let's work together, and i mean that, let's all work together on getting a sensible reconciliation package, a package that really strengthens our nation and makes us better and leads the world. thank you all. let me just say -- let me say one thing. i'm not going to negotiate in public on this because i've been

dealing in good faith and i will continue to deal in good faith with my colleagues on both sides. it's time to pass a bill and quit playing games. >> senator joe manchin not taking any questions. but he has found himself now for a long time in the middle of this ongoing debate over the infrastructure and social spending bills. he's clearly very frustrated with house democrats who say that they are holding the second bill hostage had the on the other hand, he has been the subject of a lot of frustration on the part of house democrats who think that he and kyrsten sinema hold way too much power. the frustration is everywhere. but the question remains now what. so joining me from nbc news capitol hill -- on capitol hill, is leigh ann caldwell. leigh ann, look, for joe manchin to come out and say what he said, give us your analysis and where that leaves the bill right now. >> reporter: chris, senator manchin sounded very down on that $1.7 trillion social

spending and climate change bill. you know, when he said he was going to hold a news conference earlier today, we thought that there would be some sort of news, that he would perhaps say that he is supportive of both bills and that there should be a vote on both bills. but that's not what he said. he said that he wants a vote in the house on this hard traditional infrastructure bill that has already passed the senate and he still has not publicly given his support on this other bill, the bill that most democrats, especially progressives, really want. and so that's still the question. we were told over the weekend that perhaps there was going to be a vote in the house on both bills as early as tomorrow, tuesday. but that timeline has slid back, and the reason it's been pushed is because these negotiations are still ongoing. i'm told by multiple sources that they are trying to add back into this proposal this

prescription drug pricing negotiations for medicare, something that was supposed to raise a couple of hundred billions of dollars, something many democrats have wanted. but that negotiation is still happening because senator kyrsten sinema of arizona, who has forced the house to scale back this proposal, has not yet signed off. and another issue that is still up for debate is this issue of immigration. there is a lot of people in the house, house progressives, the congressional hispanic caucus, who want immigration provisions included in this legislation, despite the fact that it's most likely going to be stripped out of the bill because of senate rules when it gets to the senate. a lot of these front line democratic members who have tough reelections don't want to vote on immigration provisions if it's not going to become law. so while speaker pelosi has now set two deadlines to pass both

pieces of legislation, both deadlines have slipped. we're into a new week. we're into a new month. they thought that they were going to get a vote tomorrow but it doesn't look like that's going to be the case. and what people wanted to hear is, from senator manchin, that he's going to support this legislation, and it's something even in a press conference that he held, he is not yet willing to do, publicly anyway, chris. >> yeah, obviously. you mentioned that it sure seemed like there was all this optimism. obviously the president before he left for overseas trying to make it look like the deal is right there, it's just ours to take. as you said, there was really this expectation the vote could happen tomorrow. totally what we just heard from joe manchin, what do you read into that, what do you think it means, big picture, for how quickly or if this gets done? >> reporter: what we know about senator manchin is he has always wanted to make this bill smaller and he's also wanted to slow down the process. so now they're at this point

where it is almost done. sources on -- both factions of the democratic caucus say they're extremely close. but they still need all 50 senators on board. and senator joe manchin is one of them. and he sounded just as pessimistic, just now, as i've heard him, really. he says that he needs to know what sort of impact this has on the american people. and the way i translate that is, he needs a score from the congressional budget office to know how much this bill really costs and how much of it is actually paid for. but chris, they can't have a congressional budget office score until all the legislative text is done. and it's not done yet. they're still working on some of these key issues. and so senator manchin still seems very comfortable to slow down this process. he said that he's working in good faith, that's a phrase that he said over and over again over the past few weeks. you know, progressives huddled

over the weekend and they had a meeting, and i'm told that during that meeting, the main takeaway was, look, we're not going to get a public ironclad commitment from senators manchin and sinema to support this negotiation. but they think they have been working in good faith. so it seems like they were on the verge, the progressives, to supporting it. but with manchin's press conference just now, i don't know if this changes the dynamics, because he sounded very down on the whole process, chris. >> when he says, vote, go home, and explain it to your constituents. leigh ann caldwell, thank you so much, we'll keep a close eye on it. let's go back to the race in virginia. nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki, and here in richmond, university of have a professors mary kate carrie and jennifer lawless. mary kate is a conservative, jennifer a liberal, they taut a

class together on the 2020 election as it was happening that covered all the divisive politics around it. steve, let's start where you are, because this is so much tighter than most people thought it might be at this point in time. where does the race in virginia stand with less than 24 hours to go? >> here we go, chris. we've got a nail-biter. this is the average of all the polls right now. a day out in virginia, you actually see glenn youngkin over the last couple of days, he's gotten some favorable polls. he has moved ahead slightly, but he's moved ahead a little bit in the poll average over terry mcauliffe, it obviously points to a very close race tomorrow, a real opportunity for republicans to pull off the upset in virginia. as you say, the backdrop for this race, a state that went for joe biden by double digits last year, a 10-point biden win in virginia. the long term trend over the last two decades in virginia has been more and more democratic. and we're going to talk about this a lot as the returns come in tomorrow night. why has this state gone democratic over the last two

decades? a lot of it has to do right up here, northern virginia, the washington, dc metropolitan area. and chris, where you are, chesterfield county, just south of richmond, henrico county north of it, the suburbs outside of richmond, suburban richmond, suburbs of washington, dc. so many people, densely populated. there's a long term democratic trend that under donald trump absolutely accelerated here. democrats made enormous gains in these places just during donald trump's presidency. it's the biggest reason joe biden was able to get up to a double disability lead statewide. this is such a key question for virginia tomorrow. and i think it's a key question nationally, because nationally there are a lot of areas like this. suburban, metropolitan areas that really swung hard away from the republican party when donald trump was president. we're going to be looking tomorrow night, how much of those gains that democrats made, how much of that surge, that trump backlash that democrats benefitted from in the suburbs,

how much are they keeping now that donald trump is no longer president versus how much inroads are republicans able to make, how much ground can youngkin win back in the suburbs that republicans surrendered in the trump era? one of the most important things we'll be watching for the outcome of this race obviously tomorrow but also in terms of national implications, chris, for the midterm election next year. >> all right, stick with us, steve, i have some more for you, but i want to bring in our other guests. jennifer, because of the history of democrats, you know, the last 10, 12, 15 years, because joe biden won by ten points, this is not what democrats are expecting. this is making them very nervous. what's going on? >> it is. i think a couple of things are happening. joe biden has had unified congressional control in washington now for about nine months and democrats don't see a lot of progress. what we just saw from joe manchin is a perfect reason why. but what that means is that voters who were expecting to put democrats in power so they could really push forward an agenda are walking away a little bit depressed by that.

that makes it difficult to motivate them to turn out to elect another democrat. the other point i would make is democrats are still on board for terry mcauliffe. republicans are on board for glenn youngkin. this comes down to the independents. what we're seeing is independents moving toward youngkin in the last couple of days, again, because they don't have a lot of faith in what the democrats in washington have done, why should they have faith in mcauliffe in richmond? >> mary kay, both candidates are feeling confident right now. why do republicans feel confident? >> i think they're seeing spikes in early voting in places they weren't expecting. steve mentioned some of them. another is hanover county, north of richmond. another is roanoke. these are areas that i think they weren't necessarily expecting. >> but explain to the folks, because you don't register by party here. >> right. >> so folks say, how do you know more republicans are turning out? >> for example, norfolk is where the naval base is. and the early voting is very high there. i think that could be a

reflection of biden's policies in afghanistan and the frustration with that. so i do think there's a lot of momentum swinging towards youngkin. he said the other night at a rally, this used to be red versus blue and now he's seeing parents versus the government, and that's what's getting people to cross party lines. >> jennifer, the perception that biden's low approval rating could be hurting terry mcauliffe, the lack of action in washington, dc. he ran as somebody who said i'm going to make things happen, i know how to work with congress. break down those numbers for us. >> yeah, we can show brand-new nbc poll here, chris, you see this is nationally, but joe biden's approval rating on the eve of this virginia race nationally now in the low 40s in our poll, 42% approve of biden, 54% disapprove. if you break this down by party, again, you mentioned those independents. you can see it right here. biden under 40 with independents

nationally. 55% disapprove. these are the national numbers. you can also take a look at all the different statewide polls that have come out in virginia in the last week or so. joe biden's average approval rating in virginia is about 45% right now. really not that much better than what we're seeing nationally. and this has been part of the sort of monday story of georgia governor's elections. they're always held in the year after the presidential election and the trend is kind of unmistakable, there's been only one exception in the last 40 years. if your party has the white house, your party, with one exception, has turned around and lost the virginia governor's race the next year. it seems there usually is some kind of negative reaction in virginia to whatever party is controlling the white house, especially if it's also controlling congress. and that historical weight that democrats may be carrying, if you add an approval rating for a democratic president that's somewhat significantly under 50%

right now, that baggage is getting a little heavier. >> so biden obviously not the only president that's playing into this race. donald trump, right? i want to get both your takes on a couple of things that are going on. terry mcauliffe never misses a chance to tie glenn youngkin to donald trump. glenn youngkin is trying to keep his distance from trump, he's saying, no thanks. trump is holding a sort of tele-event and glenn youngkin said no thank you, i'm not going. then trump issues a statement this morning saying, oh, we're very much like each other, glenn youngkin and i. how has this played into the race? has terry mcauliffe made a mistake by focusing so much on trump? >> so i don't think terry mcauliffe has made a mistake. if he wins that race, it's because he makes a convincing case to voters that glenn

youngkin means four years of donald trump. glenn youngkin wants to get all the benefits of a trump endorsement but then wants to say i didn't seek the endorsement and i don't want donald trump coming to a specific event for me, so he doesn't turn off the independents. he's trying to thread a needle and terry mcauliffe is doing everything he possibly can to call attention to that needle. >> is it a little disingenuous? >> yes, and mcauliffe, on the other hand, is bringing in, to steve's point, people who don't have a high approval rating with the voters in virginia, biden, kamala harris, all these people, he's bringing at the national level and youngkin has tried to keep it as grassroots as he possibly can which i think is a really smart strategy because here in virginia it's been decades since we've had a republican governor and that's building up frustration not only in virginia but at the national

level as well. >> you both think your guys will win, right? >> yes. >> of course. >> it's going to be a long time tomorrow. ahead, the strictest abortion law in the nation goes before the supreme court. what today's arguments signal about the future of the near total ban in texas. also ahead, world leaders and the royals convene for a climate summit in scotland. can president biden convince other nations the u.s. is ready to lead before it's too late? knows everyone's unique. that's why they customize your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. oh, yeah. that's the spot. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty ♪ ♪ ♪ there are beautiful ideas that remain in the dark.

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the united states will be able to meet the ambitious i set at the leaders' summit in april, reducing u.s. emissions by 50 to 52% below 2005 levels by 2030. we'll demonstrate to the world the united states is not only back at the table but hopefully will lead by the power of our

example. i know it hasn't been the case, and that's why my administration is working overtime to show that our climate commitment is action, not words. >> big promises from president biden today as he helped to kick off the cop26 climate summit in scotland. biden facing some cross winds as he tries to convince the world the u.s. is serious about leading on climate change after being forced to abandon some key climate provisions in his domestic agenda in order to reach a deal with critical senators in his own party. joining us from scotland is nbc news senior correspondent kelly o'donnell. kelly, good to see you. the president went into this conference with maybe a weaker hand than he would have liked. talk to us about the conversation he's having with world leaders and how they think things are going there. >> reporter: certainly president biden believes face-to-face leadership is a critical part of

what he's able to do here. he believes the u.s. can show some of that and encourage other nations that have not been meeting their goals, he wants to encourage them to do that. we also heard something from president biden that has not been typical from the u.s. president in recent years. that is, he apologized for the u.s. pulling out of the paris accord, that was donald trump's work, and trying to show the u.s. can get behind some of the ideas the president has put forward. he believes the legislation that is still, you know, being baked back in washington does include some significant spending, landmark spending, really, for climate interventions and investment and that that is a demonstration of what the u.s. can do, and that that along with some of the executive actions he has taken, things like electric vehicles and so forth, that he can show that the u.s. is prepared to lead. at the same time, the president would have liked to have had all of that locked up legislatively. he would have liked to have had that additional strength. but he is trying to focus on

those steps where the president can show that the united states is committed to this. it comes off of meeting with the same leaders in italy for the g20 where there were economic partnerships that were sort of -- some advances were made on different economic elements, some repairs to some of the relationships that have had some rough moments along the way. but now that we're here talking about climate, the president is really trying to stress the same kind of urgency we've heard from other officials. everyone from prince charles who is here representing the royal family to boris johnson, the host of this event. and really trying to shine a light on that the time is now to take these mitigations, chris. >> kelly o'donnell, thanks so much. up next, the near total abortion ban in texas going before the supreme court. what questions from conservative justices could tell us about the law's future. and we're also going to look

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oh. my nonna's! she a good cook? -no. today two incredibly closely-watched cases challenging the nation's most restrictive abortion law made their way to the supreme court. both of them are about sb 8, the texas law that bans abortions after doctors can detect a fetal heartbeat, typically around six weeks into pregnancy. that law was designed to get around previous supreme court rulings that prohibit states from banning abortions before 23 weeks. it does it by deputizing citizens to enforce it, a point several conservative justice of drove down on in today's arguments. >> it's the chilling effect here, it's different in kind because of bounties and the involvement of private persons.

often constitutional rights of course can only be enforced in a defensive posture, when an individual is faced either with potential liability, punitive damages, but also course civil fines and even criminal sanction including prison time. >> $10,000 liquidated damages. >> joining me, nbc's julia ainsley from our washington newsroom and former state prosecutor wendy murphy. so julia, the first case today centers on the use of private citizens in texas to enforce the ban. what were the major points made this morning? >> that was the case being petitioned by the abortion rights activists and providers in the state of texas, saying that this law has had a chilling effect on women who want to seek an abortion even though they

have not had anyone actually be sued under this law yet, so many of the providers shut down, they weren't even able to get to that case. now, texas would argue that these people, these people who are providing abortions, could be defendants and have the right to defend themselves and whether or not this law is constitutional or not if they are actually sued. but there was this back and forth that we saw, especially from some of the more conservative justices, with the solicitor general from texas that seemed to indicate they may actually be sympathetic to the case being brought by the abortion providers, that they're worried this could become a slippery slope where you could then use any kind of policy, something that could infringe on gun rights, religious rights, and basically arm vigilantes, anyone in the state or even outside the state who wants to use a law to sue a private citizen, that this could be taken to that point. that's have we saw that first

case today, and it was really interesting to hear, chris. >> let me ask you about that first case, wendy. obviously, reading the tea leaves, based on questions by supreme court justices, it's a tricky thing to do, yell i'll -- yet i'll ask you to do it. what did you hear today? >> i wasn't that surprised to hear even the conservative justices expressed grave concern about this enforcement mechanism. even if they might support the six-week ban itself. the primary focus of the court was, do we want any states passing laws that blatantly violate federal constitutional rights and then attaching to them these sneaky, devious provisions that basically prevent courts, especially federal courts, from getting involved to overturn those laws? i wasn't surprised to hear conservative justices express concern about this, because it is an unprecedented law.

no state has ever, ever, even states that really worked hard to overturn abortion rights, no state has ever done something like this, which is to not make the state the enforcer. here's why that's so important. when the state is the enforcer, which is how it's been in all other abortion ban cases in the past, it's easy to sue the state to enjoy it from enforcing the new abortion restriction, because that's how the law works, period, that you can sue a state when a state does something to enforce a law that's unconstitutional. when you make private persons the enforcers and they don't file lawsuits, which has been the problem in texas, who do you sue? one of the justices said, do we have to get an injunction against the entire world? and of course the answer to that is, if you could, you know, maybe that's how you enjoin this law, but you can't.

you can't enjoin everybody in the country from filing lawsuits. but because texas gave everyone in the country the right to file a lawsuit, you sort of need that kind of injunction. this is such a curious, really anti-american, deeply anti-democraticic, offensive law, the enforcement piece of it, that i think the court will easily strike this down. i will go as far as to say i will eat my shoe on this program if they don't strike it down. >> all right. wendy murphy, we'll bring you back, julia ainsley, thanks to you as well, we appreciate you. abortion is an issue that democrat terry mcauliffe has tried to keep front and center in this conversation here in the governor's race in virginia. he's argued that virginia could follow texas if republicans are allowed to gain control. >> women of virginia, listen to me carefully. if glenn youngkin is elected governor, abortions will no longer be available here in the commonwealth of virginia. for 50 years the supreme court has protected roe v. wade. now it is the trump supreme

court, 6-3. they are going to eliminate it. you saw what happened in texas. you know they're going to do it in mississippi. glenn youngkin, we do not want your antiabortion rhetoric and laws here in virginia. >> to many democrats' disappointment, recent polling shows abortion is not high on the list of key issues for virginia, less than 10%. instead, education has jumped nine points in a month with republicans hammering on critical race theory. joining me to talk more about this is nbc news correspondent heidi przybyla. larry sabatow from the university of virginia center of politics. heidi, what have voters told you about what's become the key issue in this race, education? >> chris, if you're talking about youngkin voters, it's

literally the first thing they bring up. traversing this main strip here in virginia beach, which is a very swingy area, you can't help but feel the passions that a lot of these republican voters have about this issue and the notion that critical race theory is being taught in virginia classrooms. a lot of these voters, chris, weren't able to exactly articulate what that means, other than they just feel that their kids or grandkids are being shamed for being white. and it was just striking how many of them brought it up, chris. i want you to listen to just one of the many conversations that we had in a nearby diner. take a listen. >> i like what youngkin is standing for. you know, parents do have a big say in education. this critical race theory is something to me that is ridiculous. >> are you just taking it on faith that that actually is happening? >> well, yes. >> have you seen evidence? >> no, i'm taking it on faith,

really. of course our children already have their own children, so i'm concerned about our grandchildren, what they're going to be taught in school. it seems like reading, writing, and arithmetic isn't the main objective. >> chris, despite the evidence, you couldn't help but feel this is the strongest headwind at this point that mcauliffe is facing in this race. the democrats that we talked to just seemed very frustrated that this is all a made-up dog whistle. but i've got to say, i covered the 2017 gubernatorial, and the feeling is very different. whereas back then we had all these suburban women who literally marched from the mall in their pink hats to the ballot box to cast a referendum vote on president trump. today they're feeling exhausted. today i talked to a volunteer door knocker for terry mcauliffe who says she's very concerned about young african-american voters. she said she literally clasped her hands and begged an african-american young voter

this morning to get out to the polls. that's very different from what mcauliffe won in 2013-2014 when the black vote was very high and helped push him over the top. >> and i have to say, i was at a youngkin rally earlier today, larry, and every single person i asked, why are you supporting glenn youngkin, it was education, education, critical race theory. i mean, first of all, critical race theory, as we know, isn't taught in virginia schools, it has one of the best school systems nationwide. how did education become the number one issue? >> because one of the candidates decided it was his ticket to the governor's mansion, and it may be white. the operative word is not critical and it's -- is not "critical." it's race.

white backlash, whatever you want to call it. we live in a post factual era, chris. it doesn't mattered that it isn't taught in virginia schools. it's this generalized attitude that whites are being put-upon and we've got to do something about it, "we" being white voters. >> you know, both campaigns, i had conversations with senior officials in both of them earlier today. of course they're expressing optimism. but they also acknowledge how tight this race is. so what are you going to be watching for, what is going to be the difference tomorrow? and do you read anything into the 1.1 million people who have already voted early? >> that's a good early vote turnout. it isn't even close, obviously, to the presidential early vote turnout. but it's a good, solid early vote turnout for a gubernatorial contest. look, that's going to be released first. so the first votes you're going to see in the first hour or so will be mainly from early votes, in-person and mail. look at them carefully, because

if mcauliffe, terry mcauliffe does not have a sizable lead, 60/40 or better in northern virginia and some of the other key localities in virginia, he's in deep trouble, because the election day vote, which will come second, the opposite of what happened in the presidential race, the election day vote will come second and that election day vote is going to be disproportionately republican. and so the question really is, when or if glenn youngkin will overcome mcauliffe's lead in the early vote. >> we'll all be watching tomorrow. larry sabatow, always great to see you. heidi przybyla, thank you so much for your reporting as well. next, weaker and less enthusiastic. democratic strategists worry that black support for terry mcauliffe in virginia isn't where it needs to be. how much you'll need, and build a straightforward plan to generate income,

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insists that black voters are more enthusiastic than they could be. joining me now, jonathan capehart, host of "the sunday show" on msnbc, and mark. bergman. mark, how confident are you terry mcauliffe will get the votes? >> i am confident he will. >> how much did joe biden not delivering hurt? >> let's talk about in virginia, because in virginia we've delivered voting rights, medicaid expansion, we've made record expansions in hsbus in virginia. people know that unlike what's in washington, we've delivered, and they're coming out because they know the stakes on tuesday. >> in your recent column in the

"post," you wrote, not only did african-americans vote at the level they did in president obama's 2012 re-election, black women gave him 90% of their votes. he lost white women by 16 points. now mark says they're coming out, but they brought jim clyburn, stacey abrams. is that going to turn the tide? are you as optimistic as my friend mark? >> i'm sure terry mcauliffe and mark are hoping it turns the tide. this lack of enthusiasm among democratic voters is the same thing. we had the same discussion in the california recall. it's very important in this race because if african-american voters do not come out, terry mcauliffe could lose. you know, chris, one of the big data points we've all been talking about is that how out of

ten of the last 11 virginia gubernatorial races, the person who wins is from the opposite party of the person who won the white house the year before. the one exception was terry mcauliffe in 2013. and it was because of black voters. so if we're going to use history as a guide, you know, the mcauliffe campaign -- i'm sure terry mcauliffe is hoping he can get a repeat, because he won by three percentage points in 2013. but the fact that glenn youngkin is using -- and i love what larry sabato said, we're focusing on the wrong word, it's not critical race theory, we have to focus on race. and in this case, glenn youngkin, by throwing the word "beloved," he's been able to close the gap. but on election day, will enough democratic voters come out to push terry mcauliffe over the

top? >> the trends certainly have been in his favor. again, i was just saying that -- this morning to a glenn youngkin rally, and i talked to a lot of voters. every single one brought up education, some said critically race theory. is it engendering anybody on the left? are you seeing an indication of that? >> you see the left energized but there is something going on in virginia where the left and democratic voters have muscle memory every year. they may not have enthusiasm, but they know they have to go to the polls every year, because in virginia we have an election every year. >> what's your best guess? we can't read too much into a 1.1 million early vote because we don't have a lot to compare it to, right? what's it going to take, what kind of turnout tomorrow? >> we need tomorrow 1.6 million people to turn out to be in this race. if less than that turn out, we

have issues. we have a 1.1 million vote, and if we get to 8 million, that's about 35% of all turnout, and we feel good if that's our turnout. >> i said this many times. one of my favorite interviews ever in politics, jonathan, was with a group of women from alabama and mississippi who were following in the footsteps of stacey abrams. they said if it takes ten years for us to turn our states democratic, we're willing to do it. and i said to one of them, i said, why does it always seem to be black women who have to do stuff? and her answer was, you're welcome. so she was energized but she also talked about the exhaustion of always having to be the people who pulled it out. speak to that for us. >> well, right, the headline on my piece is "black people save the republic by saving virginia again." it's always african-american voters who get out to the polls and have saved democratic candidates in alabama.

the senate candidate won there. in georgia there are two democrats holding senate seats because of black voters. joe biden is in the white house because of black voters, and black women in particular. when their families are at stake, their livelihoods, their communities are at stake, black voters and black women especially have always gone out to vote. and if terry mcauliffe does not win, the damage isn't just to black voters and black women, it's to virginia. because what could come with a glenn youngkin administration, you know, you need only look to texas and georgia to see what the template might be for virginia. >> jonathan capehart, mark bergman, thanks to both of you. it will be a fascinating day tomorrow to watch. that's it for me today, but tune in tomorrow at 2:00 eastern. i'll be reporting from virginia. .

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right now on msnbc reports, the go and no-go from joe. senator joe manchin dealing a major blow to president biden's agenda, basic torpedoing any bill going to congress. he said he will not support the safety net package, at least for now, until he knows how